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Could Rishi be replaced before the election? – politicalbetting.com

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  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586

    Wow, is Blair going to form a new party or is he going to become Tory leader?
    He'd make a better fist of it than the current one.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,301
    edited June 2023

    DavidL said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    And closing a canal is not blowing up a dam.

    Blowing up dams is specifically a Bad Action in International law.
    Massively restricting the water supply to a civilian population? No problem then?
    It’s not a war crime. Otherwise just about everyone by, to, for, at or near the Jordan Valley would be in The Hague, for example.
    Attacks on dams are war crimes, as explicitly noted in Article 56 of Protocol I and Article 15 of Protocol II of the 1977 Protocols to the Geneva Conventions.

    https://time.com/6285314/ukraine-dam-destruction-water-war-essay/
    Indeed - https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/customary-ihl/v2/rule42 is rather clear, for a law.
    These rules would all go out of the window if we ever had a true WW3 scenario.
    I mentioned yesterday that Colin Powell admitted that if the Iraqis used WMD in Desert Storm then America looked at bombing the dams on the Tigris and Euphrates rivers in retaliation.

    They realised that the death toll would be bigger than nuking Baghdad and they would be facing war crimes trials.

    Eventually it was decided to send a message through the King of Jordan that if Iraq used WMD then America would occupy Iraq until they found Saddam.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794
    Farooq said:

    viewcode said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    And closing a canal is not blowing up a dam.

    Blowing up dams is specifically a Bad Action in International law.
    They didn't mention that in the film: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Dam_Busters_(film)
    How dare you suggest we hold the UK to the same standards we hold others to.
    It wasn't illegal at the time. See also flamethrowers
    I bet you it would have turned out to be illegal if the Nazis had won though.
    I think that Nazi law worked on the basis that what Hitler said and did was de jure legal, so yes. However my point was that the convention prohibiting dam attack was in the 1970s, decades after the Dambusters
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141
    Farooq said:

    viewcode said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    And closing a canal is not blowing up a dam.

    Blowing up dams is specifically a Bad Action in International law.
    They didn't mention that in the film: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Dam_Busters_(film)
    How dare you suggest we hold the UK to the same standards we hold others to.
    It wasn't illegal at the time. See also flamethrowers
    I bet you it would have turned out to be illegal if the Nazis had won though.
    Any form of self-defence would have been illegal, had the Nazis won.

    The Allies never prosecuted the Nazis for bombing civilians, because they did the same. In WWII it was entirely lawful.

    Such bombing campaigns would be unlawful now, but only because precision bombing is a real possibility. Back in WWII, incendiaries were by far the most effective means to destroy enemy infrastructure.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    edited June 2023
    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    And closing a canal is not blowing up a dam.

    Blowing up dams is specifically a Bad Action in International law.
    They didn't mention that in the film: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Dam_Busters_(film)
    How dare you suggest we hold the UK to the same standards we hold others to.
    The law changed in 1977 - 30 years after Chastise.

    The reason behind the change is of interest. It was sparked by what the Israelis told the Egyptians. That if Egypt *participated* in a war that defeated Israel, as part of the Sampson Option, Israel would nuke the Aswan Dam. Which would annihilate Egypt.

    This was a major reason that Egypt broke ranks and made peace with Israel - they had achieved MAD….
    Nuking the Aswan dam was later threatened, or raised as an option depending on your POV, by Avigdor Lieberman. What is it with nukes and dams? Can't a big dam be busted conventionally nowadays? This is part of the Ukrainian position right now: "It can't have been us because it's impossible to do it (conventionally) from the outside, and only you were on the inside".

    At the moment I've an open mind on which side benefits most from the dam event, and suspect its purpose irrespective of the identity of the perp is escalation.
    Every dam since WWII has considered the possibility of a Chastise style operation. All the USSR dams had to be proof against such an attack. It’s fairly easy to do - an earth berm on the upstream side to prevent a bomb directly contacting the concrete for example. Or just more concrete.

    Aswan is protected by its construction type - Upkeep proof was a design criteria.

    Chastise *just* worked against masonry dams - modern concrete is much more resilient. And that took multiple strikes with a hard contact between the concrete and the weapon.

    The number of aircraft that could carry an Upkeep mine or similar is pretty small - you’d need a strategic bomber to carry it. Precision guidance doesn’t help - Upkeep worked by literally touching the dam when it went bang.

    So unless the Ukrainians stole the BBMF Lancaster, built a squadron of them etc…
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    edited June 2023
    stodge said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Sir Keir Starmer is on course to win more seats than Sir Tony Blair’s landslide victory, according to the first big constituency polling conducted under the new boundaries.

    The best-case scenario for Rishi Sunak is that the Conservatives are the second party in a hung parliament, the 10,140-person MRP poll conducted by Focaldata for Best for Britain suggests. The model used to translate the polling into seats uses the new boundaries that will shortly be approved for the next general election.

    The poll recorded Labour’s national support at 35 per cent, 12 points ahead of the Conservatives on 23 per cent. This would secure Labour 470 seats to the Conservatives’ 129, a 290-seat majority.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/keir-starmer-to-beat-blair-landslide-in-general-election-poll-finds-ks26rxjng

    But there won't be an election next week.

    The Tories with another 15 months of sensible, popular polices - versus SKS closing down the North Sea, etc. - and both parties will be close together in the upper 30's. It's what previous Tory voters are wanting to see before they re-engage. If they deliver, the Tory vote will rise significantly.
    LOL, this post needs saving for posterity. I’d love to know what these “sensible” policies are
    Please do save. You'll see these "sensible" policies outlined - at length - in the Autumn statement.

    Labour won't know what's hit them....
    More's the point - why has it taken you Conservatives 13 years to come up with some "sensible" and "popular" policies?

    Even the average dinosaur had a more rapid and coherent thought process.
    It's taken 13 years and counting because all the previous "sensible" and "popular" policies proved not to be either.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    A
    Sean_F said:

    Farooq said:

    viewcode said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    And closing a canal is not blowing up a dam.

    Blowing up dams is specifically a Bad Action in International law.
    They didn't mention that in the film: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Dam_Busters_(film)
    How dare you suggest we hold the UK to the same standards we hold others to.
    It wasn't illegal at the time. See also flamethrowers
    I bet you it would have turned out to be illegal if the Nazis had won though.
    Any form of self-defence would have been illegal, had the Nazis won.

    The Allies never prosecuted the Nazis for bombing civilians, because they did the same. In WWII it was entirely lawful.

    Such bombing campaigns would be unlawful now, but only because precision bombing is a real possibility. Back in WWII, incendiaries were by far the most effective means to destroy enemy infrastructure.
    The laws of war progress.

    A while back I mentioned the story I came across - a Royal Navy boat crew refused the surrender of slavers that had killed their midshipman and slaughter them.

    At the time this was the customary usage of war - you could choose to accept an offered surrender or not.

    Today that would be a war crime
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    BTW, it is being reported that Harry has a hotel suite in LA, where he has been seen spending a lot of time....

    Being reported by … ?
  • WestieWestie Posts: 426
    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    Did I blame Zelensky for cutting the water supply to Crimea in 2014?
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    Funny. Six weeks ago Hamish said it was all over, Russia had lost, we needed to focus on Taiwan

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/26/vladimir-putin-already-lost-ukraine-chinas-war-taiwan/

    Now he’s saying that we need to focus on an impending nuclear war? Which is it?
    I’ve no idea. He has a ridiculous name

    However I think his point here is valid. If Putin blew the dam - and the evidence points that way - it suggests he is prepared to keep escalating - and there aren’t many further steps he can take before he reaches the nuclear level

    That doesn’t mean a bomb. Could be an “accident” at ZPP
    The prime military significance of the dam event may well turn out to be ZPP-related.

    You say "if Putin blew the dam", but a similar conclusion follows from "if Zelensky blew the dam".

    It could be that both of these f*cking nutters probably with very short penises are pushing the world in the same direction.

    (Yes I have started drinking again under Armageddo-stress after many years of quiet abstention.)
    On the bright side a nuclear war will put lots of dust in the atmosphere and counteract the warming effect
    Every cloud. The idea of a nuclear winter has been dumped, though, as probable Soviet propaganda, even though when I were a lad it was being pushed out by the authorities in Britain something rotten,
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141

    A

    Sean_F said:

    Farooq said:

    viewcode said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    And closing a canal is not blowing up a dam.

    Blowing up dams is specifically a Bad Action in International law.
    They didn't mention that in the film: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Dam_Busters_(film)
    How dare you suggest we hold the UK to the same standards we hold others to.
    It wasn't illegal at the time. See also flamethrowers
    I bet you it would have turned out to be illegal if the Nazis had won though.
    Any form of self-defence would have been illegal, had the Nazis won.

    The Allies never prosecuted the Nazis for bombing civilians, because they did the same. In WWII it was entirely lawful.

    Such bombing campaigns would be unlawful now, but only because precision bombing is a real possibility. Back in WWII, incendiaries were by far the most effective means to destroy enemy infrastructure.
    The laws of war progress.

    A while back I mentioned the story I came across - a Royal Navy boat crew refused the surrender of slavers that had killed their midshipman and slaughter them.

    At the time this was the customary usage of war - you could choose to accept an offered surrender or not.

    Today that would be a war crime
    Pre-1907, it was lawful to apply the rule, “Surrender at the outset, or don’t bother surrendering.” It was not until 1949 that it became unlawful to sack a city, whose commander had rejected an offer of quarter, before the final assault began.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794
    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    Did I blame Zelensky for cutting the water supply to Crimea in 2014?
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    Funny. Six weeks ago Hamish said it was all over, Russia had lost, we needed to focus on Taiwan

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/26/vladimir-putin-already-lost-ukraine-chinas-war-taiwan/

    Now he’s saying that we need to focus on an impending nuclear war? Which is it?
    I’ve no idea. He has a ridiculous name

    However I think his point here is valid. If Putin blew the dam - and the evidence points that way - it suggests he is prepared to keep escalating - and there aren’t many further steps he can take before he reaches the nuclear level

    That doesn’t mean a bomb. Could be an “accident” at ZPP
    The prime military significance of the dam event may well turn out to be ZPP-related.

    You say "if Putin blew the dam", but a similar conclusion follows from "if Zelensky blew the dam".

    It could be that both of these f*cking nutters probably with very short penises are pushing the world in the same direction.

    (Yes I have started drinking again under Armageddo-stress after many years of quiet abstention.)
    On the bright side a nuclear war will put lots of dust in the atmosphere and counteract the warming effect
    Every cloud. The idea of a nuclear winter has been dumped, though, as probable Soviet propaganda...,
    I'm not sure that's true

  • WestieWestie Posts: 426
    edited June 2023
    DougSeal said:

    BTW, it is being reported that Harry has a hotel suite in LA, where he has been seen spending a lot of time....

    Poor Harry. He's taking the media on in court and we shouldn't go by media reports. At first I thought he was in trouble, but now it seems they may be. Gotta pinch myself to take it in that Piers "C*nt" Morgan is still sentient.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794
    DougSeal said:

    BTW, it is being reported that Harry has a hotel suite in LA, where he has been seen spending a lot of time....

    Being reported by … ?
    The Internet. Which is always right. Obvs.
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VNVeHTWcayk

    Rishi Sunak is in big trouble if these focus groups are right.

    He's been nick-named "little Rishi", because he cannot stand up to Johnson.

    "Weak"

    "Too rich"
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    edited June 2023
    Westie said:



    DougSeal said:

    BTW, it is being reported that Harry has a hotel suite in LA, where he has been seen spending a lot of time....

    Poor Harry. He's taking the media on in court and we shouldn't go by media reports. At first I thought he was in trouble, but now it seems they may be. Gotta pinch myself to take it in that Piers "C*nt" Morgan is still sentient.
    Edit - thanks!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    Apparently the top concern of constituents in Newcastle Central is democracy in Pakistan, and the second is action for Palestine.

    https://chionwurahmp.com/2023/06/policy-issues-raised-by-constituents-april-2023/
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855
    Farooq said:

    Sean_F said:

    Farooq said:

    viewcode said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    And closing a canal is not blowing up a dam.

    Blowing up dams is specifically a Bad Action in International law.
    They didn't mention that in the film: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Dam_Busters_(film)
    How dare you suggest we hold the UK to the same standards we hold others to.
    It wasn't illegal at the time. See also flamethrowers
    I bet you it would have turned out to be illegal if the Nazis had won though.
    Any form of self-defence would have been illegal, had the Nazis won.

    The Allies never prosecuted the Nazis for bombing civilians, because they did the same. In WWII it was entirely lawful.

    Such bombing campaigns would be unlawful now, but only because precision bombing is a real possibility. Back in WWII, incendiaries were by far the most effective means to destroy enemy infrastructure.
    But we did prosecute people for things like benefiting from slave labour. Slave labour was also happening in British concentration camps. Were those instances prosecuted?

    Victor's justice is a real thing, and international law is a concept freighted with hypocrisy.
    Cry me a river over the injustice here. I will take your word for it over slave labour in British concentration camps (or rather I won't, what is your source?) but it probably wasn't intended as a method of murder - working people to death.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,141
    Farooq said:

    Sean_F said:

    Farooq said:

    viewcode said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    And closing a canal is not blowing up a dam.

    Blowing up dams is specifically a Bad Action in International law.
    They didn't mention that in the film: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Dam_Busters_(film)
    How dare you suggest we hold the UK to the same standards we hold others to.
    It wasn't illegal at the time. See also flamethrowers
    I bet you it would have turned out to be illegal if the Nazis had won though.
    Any form of self-defence would have been illegal, had the Nazis won.

    The Allies never prosecuted the Nazis for bombing civilians, because they did the same. In WWII it was entirely lawful.

    Such bombing campaigns would be unlawful now, but only because precision bombing is a real possibility. Back in WWII, incendiaries were by far the most effective means to destroy enemy infrastructure.
    But we did prosecute people for things like benefiting from slave labour. Slave labour was also happening in British concentration camps. Were those instances prosecuted?

    Victor's justice is a real thing, and international law is a concept freighted with hypocrisy.
    Were the British using slave labour from 1939-45? Enemy POW’s were certainly put to work, but
    I’d hesitate to call it slave labour. In fact, POW’s of the British had the highest survival rate of any nation.

    From a legal POV, I’d have preferred the Axis defendants to be tried according to German law, customary international law, or the laws of the countries where they had committed their crimes. There was no need to invent such things as crimes against peace, or crimes against humanity, to condemn them.

    Or just do as Churchill proposed. Attaint 1,000 leading Nazis and shoot them.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276
    Not on the preferred PM numbers and if Sunak squeezes Reform and DK it would be a hung parliament on the same poll
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276

    DavidL said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    And closing a canal is not blowing up a dam.

    Blowing up dams is specifically a Bad Action in International law.
    Massively restricting the water supply to a civilian population? No problem then?
    It’s not a war crime. Otherwise just about everyone by, to, for, at or near the Jordan Valley would be in The Hague, for example.
    Attacks on dams are war crimes, as explicitly noted in Article 56 of Protocol I and Article 15 of Protocol II of the 1977 Protocols to the Geneva Conventions.

    https://time.com/6285314/ukraine-dam-destruction-water-war-essay/
    Indeed - https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/customary-ihl/v2/rule42 is rather clear, for a law.
    These rules would all go out of the window if we ever had a true WW3 scenario.
    I mentioned yesterday that Colin Powell admitted that if the Iraqis used WMD in Desert Storm then America looked at bombing the dams on the Tigris and Euphrates rivers in retaliation.

    They realised that the death toll would be bigger than nuking Baghdad and they would be facing war crimes trials.

    Eventually it was decided to send a message through the King of Jordan that if Iraq used WMD then America would occupy Iraq until they found Saddam.
    In reality they wouldn't, nobody was going to arrest the Secretary of State of the most powerful military and economic superpower on earth
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VNVeHTWcayk

    Rishi Sunak is in big trouble if these focus groups are right.

    He's been nick-named "little Rishi", because he cannot stand up to Johnson.

    "Weak"

    "Too rich"

    CBA to sit through 15 minutes of that, but you aren't really selling it to me. Check out who is PM. This is like saying Churchill has been nick-named "little Winnie", because he cannot stand up to Hitler. Feeble stuff.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,360
    Leon said:

    It is conceivable we will achieve Artificial General Intelligence, get a confirmed visit from aliens, and enjoy the outbreak of nuclear war - all in the same week. Probably august?

    August, but not before, is OK for end of the world as we know it matters. The Ashes series ends on 31 July.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    viewcode said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    Did I blame Zelensky for cutting the water supply to Crimea in 2014?
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    Funny. Six weeks ago Hamish said it was all over, Russia had lost, we needed to focus on Taiwan

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/26/vladimir-putin-already-lost-ukraine-chinas-war-taiwan/

    Now he’s saying that we need to focus on an impending nuclear war? Which is it?
    I’ve no idea. He has a ridiculous name

    However I think his point here is valid. If Putin blew the dam - and the evidence points that way - it suggests he is prepared to keep escalating - and there aren’t many further steps he can take before he reaches the nuclear level

    That doesn’t mean a bomb. Could be an “accident” at ZPP
    The prime military significance of the dam event may well turn out to be ZPP-related.

    You say "if Putin blew the dam", but a similar conclusion follows from "if Zelensky blew the dam".

    It could be that both of these f*cking nutters probably with very short penises are pushing the world in the same direction.

    (Yes I have started drinking again under Armageddo-stress after many years of quiet abstention.)
    On the bright side a nuclear war will put lots of dust in the atmosphere and counteract the warming effect
    Every cloud. The idea of a nuclear winter has been dumped, though, as probable Soviet propaganda...,
    I'm not sure that's true

    Georgy Golitsyn pushed idea hard, with Andropov’s backing, to increase support for unilateral disarmament in the West.

    The models turned out to be wrong in a number of ways - the Iraq oil well fires in 1991 were the icing on the cake.

    This is not to say that there wouldn’t be climatic effects from a Global Thermonuclear War - but instant ice age wasn’t one of them.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794
    edited June 2023

    viewcode said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    Did I blame Zelensky for cutting the water supply to Crimea in 2014?
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    Funny. Six weeks ago Hamish said it was all over, Russia had lost, we needed to focus on Taiwan

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/26/vladimir-putin-already-lost-ukraine-chinas-war-taiwan/

    Now he’s saying that we need to focus on an impending nuclear war? Which is it?
    I’ve no idea. He has a ridiculous name

    However I think his point here is valid. If Putin blew the dam - and the evidence points that way - it suggests he is prepared to keep escalating - and there aren’t many further steps he can take before he reaches the nuclear level

    That doesn’t mean a bomb. Could be an “accident” at ZPP
    The prime military significance of the dam event may well turn out to be ZPP-related.

    You say "if Putin blew the dam", but a similar conclusion follows from "if Zelensky blew the dam".

    It could be that both of these f*cking nutters probably with very short penises are pushing the world in the same direction.

    (Yes I have started drinking again under Armageddo-stress after many years of quiet abstention.)
    On the bright side a nuclear war will put lots of dust in the atmosphere and counteract the warming effect
    Every cloud. The idea of a nuclear winter has been dumped, though, as probable Soviet propaganda...,
    I'm not sure that's true

    Georgy Golitsyn pushed idea hard, with Andropov’s backing, to increase support for unilateral disarmament in the West.

    The models turned out to be wrong in a number of ways - the Iraq oil well fires in 1991 were the icing on the cake.

    This is not to say that there wouldn’t be climatic effects from a Global Thermonuclear War - but instant ice age wasn’t one of them.
    Um, I haven't got the source to hand, but I think the impetus came from a study of a Martian dust cloud that was later extrapolated to Earth, popularised by Carl Sagan, and supported by temperature estimates of years with volcano eruptions. Nuclear winter as a theory dates back to at least the 1970/80s. Are you confusing it with climate change?
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    Miklosvar said:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VNVeHTWcayk

    Rishi Sunak is in big trouble if these focus groups are right.

    He's been nick-named "little Rishi", because he cannot stand up to Johnson.

    "Weak"

    "Too rich"

    CBA to sit through 15 minutes of that, but you aren't really selling it to me. Check out who is PM. This is like saying Churchill has been nick-named "little Winnie", because he cannot stand up to Hitler. Feeble stuff.
    Starmer is "meh", Sunak is too rich for the Red Wall to vote for him. They do not like him.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276
    Rishi's motorcade arrives in DC as he meets GOP Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy
    https://www.instagram.com/stories/rishisunakmp/3120089439217635631/
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    It is conceivable we will achieve Artificial General Intelligence, get a confirmed visit from aliens, and enjoy the outbreak of nuclear war - all in the same week. Probably august?

    August, but not before, is OK for end of the world as we know it matters. The Ashes series ends on 31 July.

    So if England wins them and the world ends the next month they get to keep them forever? Cool.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,276
    edited June 2023

    Miklosvar said:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VNVeHTWcayk

    Rishi Sunak is in big trouble if these focus groups are right.

    He's been nick-named "little Rishi", because he cannot stand up to Johnson.

    "Weak"

    "Too rich"

    CBA to sit through 15 minutes of that, but you aren't really selling it to me. Check out who is PM. This is like saying Churchill has been nick-named "little Winnie", because he cannot stand up to Hitler. Feeble stuff.
    Starmer is "meh", Sunak is too rich for the Red Wall to vote for him. They do not like him.
    She also said the blue wall do like Sunak though as he is more in touch with their values than Boris was
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    Did I blame Zelensky for cutting the water supply to Crimea in 2014?
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    Funny. Six weeks ago Hamish said it was all over, Russia had lost, we needed to focus on Taiwan

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/26/vladimir-putin-already-lost-ukraine-chinas-war-taiwan/

    Now he’s saying that we need to focus on an impending nuclear war? Which is it?
    I’ve no idea. He has a ridiculous name

    However I think his point here is valid. If Putin blew the dam - and the evidence points that way - it suggests he is prepared to keep escalating - and there aren’t many further steps he can take before he reaches the nuclear level

    That doesn’t mean a bomb. Could be an “accident” at ZPP
    The prime military significance of the dam event may well turn out to be ZPP-related.

    You say "if Putin blew the dam", but a similar conclusion follows from "if Zelensky blew the dam".

    It could be that both of these f*cking nutters probably with very short penises are pushing the world in the same direction.

    (Yes I have started drinking again under Armageddo-stress after many years of quiet abstention.)
    On the bright side a nuclear war will put lots of dust in the atmosphere and counteract the warming effect
    Every cloud. The idea of a nuclear winter has been dumped, though, as probable Soviet propaganda...,
    I'm not sure that's true

    Georgy Golitsyn pushed idea hard, with Andropov’s backing, to increase support for unilateral disarmament in the West.

    The models turned out to be wrong in a number of ways - the Iraq oil well fires in 1991 were the icing on the cake.

    This is not to say that there wouldn’t be climatic effects from a Global Thermonuclear War - but instant ice age wasn’t one of them.
    Um, I haven't got the source to hand, but I think the impetus came from a study of a Martian dust cloud that was later extrapolated to Earth, popularised by Carl Sagan, and supported by temperature estimates of years with volcano eruptions. Nuclear winter as a theory dates back to at least the 1970/80s. Are you confusing it with climate change?
    Nope - Sagan was working in the same area. His models were flawed as well. The Russian push on Nuclear Winter made him keep going with it for far longer.

    Perhaps ironically, the scientific destruction of the Nuclear Winter Armageddon thing was made possible by better climate models which took into account better modelling of the atmosphere, which led to Global Warming being proven as a valid scientific idea.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    Sean_F said:

    Farooq said:

    viewcode said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    And closing a canal is not blowing up a dam.

    Blowing up dams is specifically a Bad Action in International law.
    They didn't mention that in the film: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Dam_Busters_(film)
    How dare you suggest we hold the UK to the same standards we hold others to.
    It wasn't illegal at the time. See also flamethrowers
    I bet you it would have turned out to be illegal if the Nazis had won though.
    Any form of self-defence would have been illegal, had the Nazis won.

    The Allies never prosecuted the Nazis for bombing civilians, because they did the same. In WWII it was entirely lawful.

    Such bombing campaigns would be unlawful now, but only because precision bombing is a real possibility. Back in WWII, incendiaries were by far the most effective means to destroy enemy infrastructure.
    Although, the RAF went to great pains not to bomb German civilians in 1939.

    The gloves were taken off when it became clear there were no bounds to Nazi depravity.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,069
    DavidL said:

    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    It is conceivable we will achieve Artificial General Intelligence, get a confirmed visit from aliens, and enjoy the outbreak of nuclear war - all in the same week. Probably august?

    August, but not before, is OK for end of the world as we know it matters. The Ashes series ends on 31 July.

    So if England wins them and the world ends the next month they get to keep them forever? Cool.
    And since the trophy is already a pile of ashes, a bucket of instant sunshine won't degrade them.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    Sean_F said:

    Farooq said:

    Sean_F said:

    Farooq said:

    viewcode said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    And closing a canal is not blowing up a dam.

    Blowing up dams is specifically a Bad Action in International law.
    They didn't mention that in the film: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Dam_Busters_(film)
    How dare you suggest we hold the UK to the same standards we hold others to.
    It wasn't illegal at the time. See also flamethrowers
    I bet you it would have turned out to be illegal if the Nazis had won though.
    Any form of self-defence would have been illegal, had the Nazis won.

    The Allies never prosecuted the Nazis for bombing civilians, because they did the same. In WWII it was entirely lawful.

    Such bombing campaigns would be unlawful now, but only because precision bombing is a real possibility. Back in WWII, incendiaries were by far the most effective means to destroy enemy infrastructure.
    But we did prosecute people for things like benefiting from slave labour. Slave labour was also happening in British concentration camps. Were those instances prosecuted?

    Victor's justice is a real thing, and international law is a concept freighted with hypocrisy.
    Were the British using slave labour from 1939-45? Enemy POW’s were certainly put to work, but
    I’d hesitate to call it slave labour. In fact, POW’s of the British had the highest survival rate of any nation.

    From a legal POV, I’d have preferred the Axis defendants to be tried according to German law, customary international law, or the laws of the countries where they had committed their crimes. There was no need to invent such things as crimes against peace, or crimes against humanity, to condemn them.

    Or just do as Churchill proposed. Attaint 1,000 leading Nazis and shoot them.
    It's the sort of Whataboutery bullshit you hear today about how the British were no better than the Nazis.

    It's as ignorant as it sounds.
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    HYUFD said:

    Miklosvar said:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VNVeHTWcayk

    Rishi Sunak is in big trouble if these focus groups are right.

    He's been nick-named "little Rishi", because he cannot stand up to Johnson.

    "Weak"

    "Too rich"

    CBA to sit through 15 minutes of that, but you aren't really selling it to me. Check out who is PM. This is like saying Churchill has been nick-named "little Winnie", because he cannot stand up to Hitler. Feeble stuff.
    Starmer is "meh", Sunak is too rich for the Red Wall to vote for him. They do not like him.
    She also said the blue wall do like Sunak though as he is more in touch with their values than Boris was
    Yes, he's got hope yet of saving the Blue Wall
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855
    DavidL said:

    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    It is conceivable we will achieve Artificial General Intelligence, get a confirmed visit from aliens, and enjoy the outbreak of nuclear war - all in the same week. Probably august?

    August, but not before, is OK for end of the world as we know it matters. The Ashes series ends on 31 July.

    So if England wins them and the world ends the next month they get to keep them forever? Cool.
    And vv. Realistically the least worst option for England is bringing Armageddon forward to just after the Lord's test.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,301
    Boris and Carrie Johnson hosted a close friend, who helped plan their wedding, overnight at Chequers when a number of Covid restrictions were in place, the Guardian has been told.

    Dixie Maloney, a corporate events organiser, stayed at the former prime minister’s grace-and-favour country mansion on 7 May 2021 when indoor gatherings between different households were banned except when “reasonably necessary” for reasons such as work or childcare.

    She is understood to have been informally helping to plan the couples’ festival-style wedding, which took place in the Downing Street garden three weeks later.


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/jun/07/boris-and-carrie-johnson-hosted-friend-at-chequers-during-covid-restrictions
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,095
    HYUFD said:

    geoffw said:

     

    HYUFD said:

    One for @HYUFD - my Uni has just placed 5th in the Complete University Guide for 2024, with all subjects in the top 10 nationally.

    https://thecompleteuniversityguide.co.uk/universities/university-of-bath

    Not in the Russell Group.

    How is this possible? I thought the Russell group was the best????


    So even on that most of the top 10 and the top 3 universities are all Russell Group. Your uni and the others were also always unis never polys converted to unis

    Eh? Before Robbins it was Bristol College of Science and Technology

    So were Exeter and Manchester and Birmingham once colleges, they were never polys either
    And Pot Hall was a PPH.

    It’s what something makes of itself, not where it comes from, that matters
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    Sean_F said:

    Farooq said:

    viewcode said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    And closing a canal is not blowing up a dam.

    Blowing up dams is specifically a Bad Action in International law.
    They didn't mention that in the film: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Dam_Busters_(film)
    How dare you suggest we hold the UK to the same standards we hold others to.
    It wasn't illegal at the time. See also flamethrowers
    I bet you it would have turned out to be illegal if the Nazis had won though.
    Any form of self-defence would have been illegal, had the Nazis won.

    The Allies never prosecuted the Nazis for bombing civilians, because they did the same. In WWII it was entirely lawful.

    Such bombing campaigns would be unlawful now, but only because precision bombing is a real possibility. Back in WWII, incendiaries were by far the most effective means to destroy enemy infrastructure.
    In the end though, their demented ideology finished them.

    By stripping France and Benelux of machine tools and foodstuffs for Greater Germany, they couldn't fully mobilise the European economy. And by being so brutal to conquered people's in the East they couldn't mobilise a coalition against Stalin.

    Then they declared war against the USA because they were pig ignorant of its capability, having put their defeat in 1918 down to stab-in-the-back mythology rather than because a couple of million American doughboys turned up in the last year. And then they were routinely outwitted by the Soviets in campaign after campaign from 1943 onwards because they thought Slavs as sub-humans were too stupid to practice deception.

    Had they called those all the other way they could have dominated Europe for an awful long time, and we'd have been pretty powerless to do much about it other than survive.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,095
    Westie said:

    From old thread:

    Westie said:

    ping said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    fpt for @Casino_Royale


    "That was a very sobering article.

    Either Europe's centrist parties get a grip on this issue or, eventually, we'll see European polities collapse into autocracy and dictatorship as they become overwhelmed with the problem."

    ++++


    I reckon it is too late. The numbers of migrants are too big and the waves will come too fast

    Brace. I expect several countries to veer into far right politics, or, to be more precise, populism with a large dollop of xenophobia (the actual economics might well be "left"), and regimes prepared to shoot people or sink boats

    We're already there in Hungary, Poland, maybe Greece, possibly Italy if Meloni can't get a grip

    Turning back boats at gunpoint is one guaranteed way to stop them.

    So, if they don't, then sooner or later I expect some regime to try it.

    The Greeks have already been filmed towing boats back out into the Aegean and saying Fuck off, good luck, don't come back

    Eventually the Italians will do the same, and hang the consequences. No society can tolerate 400,000 illegal people simply swarming the frontier (and 400,000 is the prediction for this year in Italy). Meloni's entire career depends on this. This is her THING. If she - openly "hard right" - cannot stop the boats then the Italians will vote for someone prepared to be even tougher

    It will end in gunfire and drownings, but then, it already does: it is just hidden away in Africa - but now it will become visible

    Ironically the Greeks could do with a bit of immigration, since their population is in decline and the fertility rate is 1.3.
    That’s the weird thing. Being anti-immigration in Southern Europe where nobody has babies anymore is true foot shooting behaviour. And oddly hypocritical, in countries that have exported millions of emigrants over the last century to America, Australia and Northern Europe.
    I don't really agree with that. Immigration is about more than numbers. Culture, integration/assimilation are other acceptable things to consider. And I wouldn't say those countries have exported their people. Individuals from those countries freely chose to leave and other countries decided to accept them. I can't see it as hypocritical.
    Both you and Williamglen make a valid point. Those who emigrated are different from those left behind who don’t like immigration. One group doesn’t owe the other anything.

    Perhaps that’s part of the reason these countries are slowly dying. The dynamic, entrepreneurial ones emigrated to seek their fortune. They certainly didn’t mind about living somewhere - like Australia - that was a melting pot of new cultures. The cautious home-loving ones stayed behind, and just want a quiet life. Immigration means change, and challenge, and things not being like the old days.

    We don’t have the emigration problem so much in Britain, at least not these days, because a. unemployment hasn’t been a problem for a long time, and b. we don’t do foreign languages. But our demographics aren’t much better than Italy or Greece. Better, though trending in the wrong direction. But thankfully we have a much more balanced attitude towards immigration.
    Apparently the UK had the largest expat population of any EU member state in 2016, but most of them migrated to other Anglosphere countries:

    http://metrocosm.com/eu-diaspora-map/

    image
    I wonder where the highest global % (not in absolute numbers) is?

    Lebanon?

    Some small, obscure country whose a) economy fell off a cliff a few decades ago, and b ) had a free movement agreement / liberal visa regime with other more prosperous countries, i'd guess.

    Somewhere in the Caribbean, perhaps?

    Lesotho/Eswatini?
    Of the countries on that map, probably Latvia.
    Were there any good suggestions for countries with the largest % of their home-born citizens living abroad? I propose Guyana, with a proportion said to be ~60%.
    Vatican?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,926

    Westie said:

    From old thread:

    Westie said:

    ping said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    fpt for @Casino_Royale


    "That was a very sobering article.

    Either Europe's centrist parties get a grip on this issue or, eventually, we'll see European polities collapse into autocracy and dictatorship as they become overwhelmed with the problem."

    ++++


    I reckon it is too late. The numbers of migrants are too big and the waves will come too fast

    Brace. I expect several countries to veer into far right politics, or, to be more precise, populism with a large dollop of xenophobia (the actual economics might well be "left"), and regimes prepared to shoot people or sink boats

    We're already there in Hungary, Poland, maybe Greece, possibly Italy if Meloni can't get a grip

    Turning back boats at gunpoint is one guaranteed way to stop them.

    So, if they don't, then sooner or later I expect some regime to try it.

    The Greeks have already been filmed towing boats back out into the Aegean and saying Fuck off, good luck, don't come back

    Eventually the Italians will do the same, and hang the consequences. No society can tolerate 400,000 illegal people simply swarming the frontier (and 400,000 is the prediction for this year in Italy). Meloni's entire career depends on this. This is her THING. If she - openly "hard right" - cannot stop the boats then the Italians will vote for someone prepared to be even tougher

    It will end in gunfire and drownings, but then, it already does: it is just hidden away in Africa - but now it will become visible

    Ironically the Greeks could do with a bit of immigration, since their population is in decline and the fertility rate is 1.3.
    That’s the weird thing. Being anti-immigration in Southern Europe where nobody has babies anymore is true foot shooting behaviour. And oddly hypocritical, in countries that have exported millions of emigrants over the last century to America, Australia and Northern Europe.
    I don't really agree with that. Immigration is about more than numbers. Culture, integration/assimilation are other acceptable things to consider. And I wouldn't say those countries have exported their people. Individuals from those countries freely chose to leave and other countries decided to accept them. I can't see it as hypocritical.
    Both you and Williamglen make a valid point. Those who emigrated are different from those left behind who don’t like immigration. One group doesn’t owe the other anything.

    Perhaps that’s part of the reason these countries are slowly dying. The dynamic, entrepreneurial ones emigrated to seek their fortune. They certainly didn’t mind about living somewhere - like Australia - that was a melting pot of new cultures. The cautious home-loving ones stayed behind, and just want a quiet life. Immigration means change, and challenge, and things not being like the old days.

    We don’t have the emigration problem so much in Britain, at least not these days, because a. unemployment hasn’t been a problem for a long time, and b. we don’t do foreign languages. But our demographics aren’t much better than Italy or Greece. Better, though trending in the wrong direction. But thankfully we have a much more balanced attitude towards immigration.
    Apparently the UK had the largest expat population of any EU member state in 2016, but most of them migrated to other Anglosphere countries:

    http://metrocosm.com/eu-diaspora-map/

    image
    I wonder where the highest global % (not in absolute numbers) is?

    Lebanon?

    Some small, obscure country whose a) economy fell off a cliff a few decades ago, and b ) had a free movement agreement / liberal visa regime with other more prosperous countries, i'd guess.

    Somewhere in the Caribbean, perhaps?

    Lesotho/Eswatini?
    Of the countries on that map, probably Latvia.
    Were there any good suggestions for countries with the largest % of their home-born citizens living abroad? I propose Guyana, with a proportion said to be ~60%.
    Vatican?
    Vatican I'm sure wins the other way too: number of resident population born outside the country.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,707

    DavidL said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Leon said:

    It is conceivable we will achieve Artificial General Intelligence, get a confirmed visit from aliens, and enjoy the outbreak of nuclear war - all in the same week. Probably august?

    Excellent example of why the order of events is important.
    Gonna stick my neck out and say that this will not happen in August.
    Hope not. I have a holiday booked.
    I'm even more concerned. My holiday is not until September.
    Getting my holiday in at the end of June, before the end of the world.
    I've got mid-July. If enough PB'ers have holidays booked through autumn we might just get to Christmas.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,926

    viewcode said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    Did I blame Zelensky for cutting the water supply to Crimea in 2014?
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    Funny. Six weeks ago Hamish said it was all over, Russia had lost, we needed to focus on Taiwan

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/26/vladimir-putin-already-lost-ukraine-chinas-war-taiwan/

    Now he’s saying that we need to focus on an impending nuclear war? Which is it?
    I’ve no idea. He has a ridiculous name

    However I think his point here is valid. If Putin blew the dam - and the evidence points that way - it suggests he is prepared to keep escalating - and there aren’t many further steps he can take before he reaches the nuclear level

    That doesn’t mean a bomb. Could be an “accident” at ZPP
    The prime military significance of the dam event may well turn out to be ZPP-related.

    You say "if Putin blew the dam", but a similar conclusion follows from "if Zelensky blew the dam".

    It could be that both of these f*cking nutters probably with very short penises are pushing the world in the same direction.

    (Yes I have started drinking again under Armageddo-stress after many years of quiet abstention.)
    On the bright side a nuclear war will put lots of dust in the atmosphere and counteract the warming effect
    Every cloud. The idea of a nuclear winter has been dumped, though, as probable Soviet propaganda...,
    I'm not sure that's true

    Georgy Golitsyn pushed idea hard, with Andropov’s backing, to increase support for unilateral disarmament in the West.

    The models turned out to be wrong in a number of ways - the Iraq oil well fires in 1991 were the icing on the cake.

    This is not to say that there wouldn’t be climatic effects from a Global Thermonuclear War - but instant ice age wasn’t one of them.
    IIRC, large volcanic eruptions - which threw lots of particles into the upper atmosphere - have significantly reduced solar radiation reaching the surface, and led to meaningfully lower temperatures.

    Presumably the models predicting nuclear winter were based on those observations.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794
    edited June 2023

    Sean_F said:

    Farooq said:

    viewcode said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    And closing a canal is not blowing up a dam.

    Blowing up dams is specifically a Bad Action in International law.
    They didn't mention that in the film: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Dam_Busters_(film)
    How dare you suggest we hold the UK to the same standards we hold others to.
    It wasn't illegal at the time. See also flamethrowers
    I bet you it would have turned out to be illegal if the Nazis had won though.
    Any form of self-defence would have been illegal, had the Nazis won.

    The Allies never prosecuted the Nazis for bombing civilians, because they did the same. In WWII it was entirely lawful.

    Such bombing campaigns would be unlawful now, but only because precision bombing is a real possibility. Back in WWII, incendiaries were by far the most effective means to destroy enemy infrastructure.
    Although, the RAF went to great pains not to bomb German civilians in 1939.

    The gloves were taken off when it became clear there were no bounds to Nazi depravity.
    It would be more accurate to say that the gloves were taken off when it became clear that there were no bounds to RAF bomber inaccuracy. The error ranges were measured in miles. They started bombing cities because they were the only things big enough to hit reliably. This remained true from 1939 to say late 44. They could have mounted more accurate bombing runs in 44/45 with (say) Mosquitos (and did!), but the highly efficient city bombing machine the RAF had become by then could not have been turned around on a sixpence and Harris didn't want to anyway, defying orders in the process. They did what they could.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720
    edited June 2023
    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    Did I blame Zelensky for cutting the water supply to Crimea in 2014?
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    Funny. Six weeks ago Hamish said it was all over, Russia had lost, we needed to focus on Taiwan

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/26/vladimir-putin-already-lost-ukraine-chinas-war-taiwan/

    Now he’s saying that we need to focus on an impending nuclear war? Which is it?
    I’ve no idea. He has a ridiculous name

    However I think his point here is valid. If Putin blew the dam - and the evidence points that way - it suggests he is prepared to keep escalating - and there aren’t many further steps he can take before he reaches the nuclear level

    That doesn’t mean a bomb. Could be an “accident” at ZPP
    The prime military significance of the dam event may well turn out to be ZPP-related.

    You say "if Putin blew the dam", but a similar conclusion follows from "if Zelensky blew the dam".

    It could be that both of these f*cking nutters probably with very short penises are pushing the world in the same direction.

    (Yes I have started drinking again under Armageddo-stress after many years of quiet abstention.)
    On the bright side a nuclear war will put lots of dust in the atmosphere and counteract the warming effect
    Every cloud. The idea of a nuclear winter has been dumped, though, as probable Soviet propaganda...,
    I'm not sure that's true

    Georgy Golitsyn pushed idea hard, with Andropov’s backing, to increase support for unilateral disarmament in the West.

    The models turned out to be wrong in a number of ways - the Iraq oil well fires in 1991 were the icing on the cake.

    This is not to say that there wouldn’t be climatic effects from a Global Thermonuclear War - but instant ice age wasn’t one of them.
    IIRC, large volcanic eruptions - which threw lots of particles into the upper atmosphere - have significantly reduced solar radiation reaching the surface, and led to meaningfully lower temperatures.

    Presumably the models predicting nuclear winter were based on those observations.
    They were related but the mechanisms are a little different. The main modelled contributor to cooling from nuclear winter was soot from firestorms around the bomb, reaching the upper troposphere and to some extent the lower stratosphere. For volcanoes it’s the injection of sulphur dioxide into the stratosphere.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    Shocking behaviour by West Ham fans

    Suspect serious ramifications will follow
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    DougSeal said:

    Classic QTWTAIN. Four PMs off the back of one general election? Come on. The attacks write themselves.

    Unless it’s a Truss comeback of course. In which case I retract what I just said.

    Or a Boris comeback.
    DavidL said:

    Cyclefree said:

    The Tories should not revert to Thatcherism. They need to rethink what Conservatism means for a country facing the challenges of the 2030's and 2040's. Not rehash an old old tune - without even properly understanding it.

    What should the Tories want? As a centre right voter I am looking for:

    A focus on the importance of the balance of payments.
    This requires more investment and savings and less consumption.
    Policies should therefore focus on how to incentivise these objectives.
    That means super tax breaks for investment and training, making the UK a good place to invest.
    It also means focusing education much more on what skills are actually required and likely to be required in the future.
    It also means getting serious about cutting government borrowing.
    This means current spending needs to be sharply controlled because more infrastructure investment is needed.
    Above all, we need more housing, both social and privately owned.
    We need to go as far and as fast as we can towards a renewable energy policy without damaging underlying competitiveness. This will both improve our balance of payments and improve our contributions to reducing global warming.
    We need to think hard about how social care and medical care for the elderly is funded. Personally, I would want to go back to the ideas that were being floated by May. Inheritance is not to be subsidised by public money meeting individual needs.
    We need to rebalance our tax system so that capital makes a bigger contribution and the pressure on incomes is lessened.
    We need to simplify our tax system and remove cliff edges, the anomaly of higher marginal rates over £100k, the absurdity of NI and the stupid differentials in rates depending on which vehicle the same money is earned through.

    I think that would fill the first couple of terms.
    I'm on board with 90% of this, and the different 10% is more about how to get there. It ain't Sunak's Government though.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,994
    .
    viewcode said:

    Sean_F said:

    Farooq said:

    viewcode said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    And closing a canal is not blowing up a dam.

    Blowing up dams is specifically a Bad Action in International law.
    They didn't mention that in the film: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Dam_Busters_(film)
    How dare you suggest we hold the UK to the same standards we hold others to.
    It wasn't illegal at the time. See also flamethrowers
    I bet you it would have turned out to be illegal if the Nazis had won though.
    Any form of self-defence would have been illegal, had the Nazis won.

    The Allies never prosecuted the Nazis for bombing civilians, because they did the same. In WWII it was entirely lawful.

    Such bombing campaigns would be unlawful now, but only because precision bombing is a real possibility. Back in WWII, incendiaries were by far the most effective means to destroy enemy infrastructure.
    Although, the RAF went to great pains not to bomb German civilians in 1939.

    The gloves were taken off when it became clear there were no bounds to Nazi depravity.
    It would be more accurate to say that the gloves were taken off when it became clear that there were no bounds to RAF bomber inaccuracy. The error ranges were measured in miles. They started bombing cities because they were the only things big enough to hit reliably. This remained true from 1939 to say late 44. They could have mounted more accurate bombing runs in 44/45 with (say) Mosquitos (and did!), but the highly efficient city bombing machine the RAF had become by then could not have been turned around on a sixpence and Harris didn't want to anyway, defying orders in the process. They did what they could.
    That was also a pull factor but the push factor was the Nazis had no morals or scruples whatsoever and total war was what was required to meet it.
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855
    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    Did I blame Zelensky for cutting the water supply to Crimea in 2014?
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    Funny. Six weeks ago Hamish said it was all over, Russia had lost, we needed to focus on Taiwan

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/26/vladimir-putin-already-lost-ukraine-chinas-war-taiwan/

    Now he’s saying that we need to focus on an impending nuclear war? Which is it?
    I’ve no idea. He has a ridiculous name

    However I think his point here is valid. If Putin blew the dam - and the evidence points that way - it suggests he is prepared to keep escalating - and there aren’t many further steps he can take before he reaches the nuclear level

    That doesn’t mean a bomb. Could be an “accident” at ZPP
    The prime military significance of the dam event may well turn out to be ZPP-related.

    You say "if Putin blew the dam", but a similar conclusion follows from "if Zelensky blew the dam".

    It could be that both of these f*cking nutters probably with very short penises are pushing the world in the same direction.

    (Yes I have started drinking again under Armageddo-stress after many years of quiet abstention.)
    On the bright side a nuclear war will put lots of dust in the atmosphere and counteract the warming effect
    Every cloud. The idea of a nuclear winter has been dumped, though, as probable Soviet propaganda...,
    I'm not sure that's true

    Georgy Golitsyn pushed idea hard, with Andropov’s backing, to increase support for unilateral disarmament in the West.

    The models turned out to be wrong in a number of ways - the Iraq oil well fires in 1991 were the icing on the cake.

    This is not to say that there wouldn’t be climatic effects from a Global Thermonuclear War - but instant ice age wasn’t one of them.
    IIRC, large volcanic eruptions - which threw lots of particles into the upper atmosphere - have significantly reduced solar radiation reaching the surface, and led to meaningfully lower temperatures.

    Presumably the models predicting nuclear winter were based on those observations.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer

    1816, ascribed to mt Tambora erupting.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,255
    ohnotnow said:

    DavidL said:

    Ghedebrav said:

    Leon said:

    It is conceivable we will achieve Artificial General Intelligence, get a confirmed visit from aliens, and enjoy the outbreak of nuclear war - all in the same week. Probably august?

    Excellent example of why the order of events is important.
    Gonna stick my neck out and say that this will not happen in August.
    Hope not. I have a holiday booked.
    I'm even more concerned. My holiday is not until September.
    Getting my holiday in at the end of June, before the end of the world.
    I've got mid-July. If enough PB'ers have holidays booked through autumn we might just get to Christmas.
    We'd better hold off any more Mike holidays for a while though.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,048

    Boris and Carrie Johnson hosted a close friend, who helped plan their wedding, overnight at Chequers when a number of Covid restrictions were in place, the Guardian has been told.

    Dixie Maloney, a corporate events organiser, stayed at the former prime minister’s grace-and-favour country mansion on 7 May 2021 when indoor gatherings between different households were banned except when “reasonably necessary” for reasons such as work or childcare.

    She is understood to have been informally helping to plan the couples’ festival-style wedding, which took place in the Downing Street garden three weeks later.


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/jun/07/boris-and-carrie-johnson-hosted-friend-at-chequers-during-covid-restrictions

    It probably was a breach of the rules but it looks like they can get away with it because Carrie was pregnant and they can claim that she was there to look after her.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    Messi to sign for Inter Miami.
    No wonder they sacked Phil Neville.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/65832658
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,095

    Boris and Carrie Johnson hosted a close friend, who helped plan their wedding, overnight at Chequers when a number of Covid restrictions were in place, the Guardian has been told.

    Dixie Maloney, a corporate events organiser, stayed at the former prime minister’s grace-and-favour country mansion on 7 May 2021 when indoor gatherings between different households were banned except when “reasonably necessary” for reasons such as work or childcare.

    She is understood to have been informally helping to plan the couples’ festival-style wedding, which took place in the Downing Street garden three weeks later.


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/jun/07/boris-and-carrie-johnson-hosted-friend-at-chequers-during-covid-restrictions

    Wedding planner found it reasonably necessary to be on site to plan wedding
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,255

    Boris and Carrie Johnson hosted a close friend, who helped plan their wedding, overnight at Chequers when a number of Covid restrictions were in place, the Guardian has been told.

    Dixie Maloney, a corporate events organiser, stayed at the former prime minister’s grace-and-favour country mansion on 7 May 2021 when indoor gatherings between different households were banned except when “reasonably necessary” for reasons such as work or childcare.

    She is understood to have been informally helping to plan the couples’ festival-style wedding, which took place in the Downing Street garden three weeks later.


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/jun/07/boris-and-carrie-johnson-hosted-friend-at-chequers-during-covid-restrictions

    May 21.

    But did they consume beer and curry together?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,095
    rcs1000 said:

    Westie said:

    From old thread:

    Westie said:

    ping said:

    TimS said:

    TimS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    fpt for @Casino_Royale


    "That was a very sobering article.

    Either Europe's centrist parties get a grip on this issue or, eventually, we'll see European polities collapse into autocracy and dictatorship as they become overwhelmed with the problem."

    ++++


    I reckon it is too late. The numbers of migrants are too big and the waves will come too fast

    Brace. I expect several countries to veer into far right politics, or, to be more precise, populism with a large dollop of xenophobia (the actual economics might well be "left"), and regimes prepared to shoot people or sink boats

    We're already there in Hungary, Poland, maybe Greece, possibly Italy if Meloni can't get a grip

    Turning back boats at gunpoint is one guaranteed way to stop them.

    So, if they don't, then sooner or later I expect some regime to try it.

    The Greeks have already been filmed towing boats back out into the Aegean and saying Fuck off, good luck, don't come back

    Eventually the Italians will do the same, and hang the consequences. No society can tolerate 400,000 illegal people simply swarming the frontier (and 400,000 is the prediction for this year in Italy). Meloni's entire career depends on this. This is her THING. If she - openly "hard right" - cannot stop the boats then the Italians will vote for someone prepared to be even tougher

    It will end in gunfire and drownings, but then, it already does: it is just hidden away in Africa - but now it will become visible

    Ironically the Greeks could do with a bit of immigration, since their population is in decline and the fertility rate is 1.3.
    That’s the weird thing. Being anti-immigration in Southern Europe where nobody has babies anymore is true foot shooting behaviour. And oddly hypocritical, in countries that have exported millions of emigrants over the last century to America, Australia and Northern Europe.
    I don't really agree with that. Immigration is about more than numbers. Culture, integration/assimilation are other acceptable things to consider. And I wouldn't say those countries have exported their people. Individuals from those countries freely chose to leave and other countries decided to accept them. I can't see it as hypocritical.
    Both you and Williamglen make a valid point. Those who emigrated are different from those left behind who don’t like immigration. One group doesn’t owe the other anything.

    Perhaps that’s part of the reason these countries are slowly dying. The dynamic, entrepreneurial ones emigrated to seek their fortune. They certainly didn’t mind about living somewhere - like Australia - that was a melting pot of new cultures. The cautious home-loving ones stayed behind, and just want a quiet life. Immigration means change, and challenge, and things not being like the old days.

    We don’t have the emigration problem so much in Britain, at least not these days, because a. unemployment hasn’t been a problem for a long time, and b. we don’t do foreign languages. But our demographics aren’t much better than Italy or Greece. Better, though trending in the wrong direction. But thankfully we have a much more balanced attitude towards immigration.
    Apparently the UK had the largest expat population of any EU member state in 2016, but most of them migrated to other Anglosphere countries:

    http://metrocosm.com/eu-diaspora-map/

    image
    I wonder where the highest global % (not in absolute numbers) is?

    Lebanon?

    Some small, obscure country whose a) economy fell off a cliff a few decades ago, and b ) had a free movement agreement / liberal visa regime with other more prosperous countries, i'd guess.

    Somewhere in the Caribbean, perhaps?

    Lesotho/Eswatini?
    Of the countries on that map, probably Latvia.
    Were there any good suggestions for countries with the largest % of their home-born citizens living abroad? I propose Guyana, with a proportion said to be ~60%.
    Vatican?
    Vatican I'm sure wins the other way too: number of resident population born outside the country.
    Vatican gets it both ways?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,320
    https://www.politico.eu/article/flemish-nationalists-nva-vlaanderen-bart-de-wever-cieltje-van-achter-cry-foul-over-more-english-in-brussels/

    In Belgium, the Flemish liberals want to make English the third administrative language in the country’s capital, Brussels.

    Flemish nationalists aren’t happy about it.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080
    Miklosvar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    Did I blame Zelensky for cutting the water supply to Crimea in 2014?
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    Funny. Six weeks ago Hamish said it was all over, Russia had lost, we needed to focus on Taiwan

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/26/vladimir-putin-already-lost-ukraine-chinas-war-taiwan/

    Now he’s saying that we need to focus on an impending nuclear war? Which is it?
    I’ve no idea. He has a ridiculous name

    However I think his point here is valid. If Putin blew the dam - and the evidence points that way - it suggests he is prepared to keep escalating - and there aren’t many further steps he can take before he reaches the nuclear level

    That doesn’t mean a bomb. Could be an “accident” at ZPP
    The prime military significance of the dam event may well turn out to be ZPP-related.

    You say "if Putin blew the dam", but a similar conclusion follows from "if Zelensky blew the dam".

    It could be that both of these f*cking nutters probably with very short penises are pushing the world in the same direction.

    (Yes I have started drinking again under Armageddo-stress after many years of quiet abstention.)
    On the bright side a nuclear war will put lots of dust in the atmosphere and counteract the warming effect
    Every cloud. The idea of a nuclear winter has been dumped, though, as probable Soviet propaganda...,
    I'm not sure that's true

    Georgy Golitsyn pushed idea hard, with Andropov’s backing, to increase support for unilateral disarmament in the West.

    The models turned out to be wrong in a number of ways - the Iraq oil well fires in 1991 were the icing on the cake.

    This is not to say that there wouldn’t be climatic effects from a Global Thermonuclear War - but instant ice age wasn’t one of them.
    IIRC, large volcanic eruptions - which threw lots of particles into the upper atmosphere - have significantly reduced solar radiation reaching the surface, and led to meaningfully lower temperatures.

    Presumably the models predicting nuclear winter were based on those observations.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer

    1816, ascribed to mt Tambora erupting.
    And helped to encourage the development of the bicycle, because fodder for horses became so expensive.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    And closing a canal is not blowing up a dam.

    Blowing up dams is specifically a Bad Action in International law.
    Massively restricting the water supply to a civilian population? No problem then?
    It’s not a war crime. Otherwise just about everyone by, to, for, at or near the Jordan Valley would be in The Hague, for example.
    Attacks on dams are war crimes, as explicitly noted in Article 56 of Protocol I and Article 15 of Protocol II of the 1977 Protocols to the Geneva Conventions.

    https://time.com/6285314/ukraine-dam-destruction-water-war-essay/
    Indeed - https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/customary-ihl/v2/rule42 is rather clear, for a law.
    These rules would all go out of the window if we ever had a true WW3 scenario.
    I mentioned yesterday that Colin Powell admitted that if the Iraqis used WMD in Desert Storm then America looked at bombing the dams on the Tigris and Euphrates rivers in retaliation.

    They realised that the death toll would be bigger than nuking Baghdad and they would be facing war crimes trials.

    Eventually it was decided to send a message through the King of Jordan that if Iraq used WMD then America would occupy Iraq until they found Saddam.
    In reality they wouldn't, nobody was going to arrest the Secretary of State of the most powerful military and economic superpower on earth
    He probably preferred not to be labelled his generation’s Kissinger.

    Who as Nixon’s NSA and Secretary of State arranged the dropping of half a million tonnes of ordnance on a neutral nation.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,301
    HYUFD said:

    DavidL said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    And closing a canal is not blowing up a dam.

    Blowing up dams is specifically a Bad Action in International law.
    Massively restricting the water supply to a civilian population? No problem then?
    It’s not a war crime. Otherwise just about everyone by, to, for, at or near the Jordan Valley would be in The Hague, for example.
    Attacks on dams are war crimes, as explicitly noted in Article 56 of Protocol I and Article 15 of Protocol II of the 1977 Protocols to the Geneva Conventions.

    https://time.com/6285314/ukraine-dam-destruction-water-war-essay/
    Indeed - https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/customary-ihl/v2/rule42 is rather clear, for a law.
    These rules would all go out of the window if we ever had a true WW3 scenario.
    I mentioned yesterday that Colin Powell admitted that if the Iraqis used WMD in Desert Storm then America looked at bombing the dams on the Tigris and Euphrates rivers in retaliation.

    They realised that the death toll would be bigger than nuking Baghdad and they would be facing war crimes trials.

    Eventually it was decided to send a message through the King of Jordan that if Iraq used WMD then America would occupy Iraq until they found Saddam.
    In reality they wouldn't, nobody was going to arrest the Secretary of State of the most powerful military and economic superpower on earth
    He wasn't Secretary of State then.
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855

    Boris and Carrie Johnson hosted a close friend, who helped plan their wedding, overnight at Chequers when a number of Covid restrictions were in place, the Guardian has been told.

    Dixie Maloney, a corporate events organiser, stayed at the former prime minister’s grace-and-favour country mansion on 7 May 2021 when indoor gatherings between different households were banned except when “reasonably necessary” for reasons such as work or childcare.

    She is understood to have been informally helping to plan the couples’ festival-style wedding, which took place in the Downing Street garden three weeks later.


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/jun/07/boris-and-carrie-johnson-hosted-friend-at-chequers-during-covid-restrictions

    Wedding planner found it reasonably necessary to be on site to plan wedding
    Read it again. Wedding = 10 DS, illegal badness = Chequers.
  • MiklosvarMiklosvar Posts: 1,855

    Miklosvar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    Did I blame Zelensky for cutting the water supply to Crimea in 2014?
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    Funny. Six weeks ago Hamish said it was all over, Russia had lost, we needed to focus on Taiwan

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/26/vladimir-putin-already-lost-ukraine-chinas-war-taiwan/

    Now he’s saying that we need to focus on an impending nuclear war? Which is it?
    I’ve no idea. He has a ridiculous name

    However I think his point here is valid. If Putin blew the dam - and the evidence points that way - it suggests he is prepared to keep escalating - and there aren’t many further steps he can take before he reaches the nuclear level

    That doesn’t mean a bomb. Could be an “accident” at ZPP
    The prime military significance of the dam event may well turn out to be ZPP-related.

    You say "if Putin blew the dam", but a similar conclusion follows from "if Zelensky blew the dam".

    It could be that both of these f*cking nutters probably with very short penises are pushing the world in the same direction.

    (Yes I have started drinking again under Armageddo-stress after many years of quiet abstention.)
    On the bright side a nuclear war will put lots of dust in the atmosphere and counteract the warming effect
    Every cloud. The idea of a nuclear winter has been dumped, though, as probable Soviet propaganda...,
    I'm not sure that's true

    Georgy Golitsyn pushed idea hard, with Andropov’s backing, to increase support for unilateral disarmament in the West.

    The models turned out to be wrong in a number of ways - the Iraq oil well fires in 1991 were the icing on the cake.

    This is not to say that there wouldn’t be climatic effects from a Global Thermonuclear War - but instant ice age wasn’t one of them.
    IIRC, large volcanic eruptions - which threw lots of particles into the upper atmosphere - have significantly reduced solar radiation reaching the surface, and led to meaningfully lower temperatures.

    Presumably the models predicting nuclear winter were based on those observations.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer

    1816, ascribed to mt Tambora erupting.
    And helped to encourage the development of the bicycle, because fodder for horses became so expensive.
    And gave us Frankenstein, because MBS was stuck indoors with nothing to do.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,848
    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    Did I blame Zelensky for cutting the water supply to Crimea in 2014?
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    Funny. Six weeks ago Hamish said it was all over, Russia had lost, we needed to focus on Taiwan

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/26/vladimir-putin-already-lost-ukraine-chinas-war-taiwan/

    Now he’s saying that we need to focus on an impending nuclear war? Which is it?
    I’ve no idea. He has a ridiculous name

    However I think his point here is valid. If Putin blew the dam - and the evidence points that way - it suggests he is prepared to keep escalating - and there aren’t many further steps he can take before he reaches the nuclear level

    That doesn’t mean a bomb. Could be an “accident” at ZPP
    The prime military significance of the dam event may well turn out to be ZPP-related.

    You say "if Putin blew the dam", but a similar conclusion follows from "if Zelensky blew the dam".

    It could be that both of these f*cking nutters probably with very short penises are pushing the world in the same direction.

    (Yes I have started drinking again under Armageddo-stress after many years of quiet abstention.)
    On the bright side a nuclear war will put lots of dust in the atmosphere and counteract the warming effect
    Every cloud. The idea of a nuclear winter has been dumped, though, as probable Soviet propaganda, even though when I were a lad it was being pushed out by the authorities in Britain something rotten,
    The idea of a nuclear winter has not been dumped its a known fact that a high density of particulate matter in the atmosphere reduces solar forcing. Trying to claim otherwise shows you are an idiot
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    Boris and Carrie Johnson hosted a close friend, who helped plan their wedding, overnight at Chequers when a number of Covid restrictions were in place, the Guardian has been told.

    Dixie Maloney, a corporate events organiser, stayed at the former prime minister’s grace-and-favour country mansion on 7 May 2021 when indoor gatherings between different households were banned except when “reasonably necessary” for reasons such as work or childcare.

    She is understood to have been informally helping to plan the couples’ festival-style wedding, which took place in the Downing Street garden three weeks later.


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/jun/07/boris-and-carrie-johnson-hosted-friend-at-chequers-during-covid-restrictions

    Wedding planner found it reasonably necessary to be on site to plan wedding
    Nice try, but she stayed at Chequers while the wedding was due to (and did) take place at 10 Downing Street. Still, she probably didn’t have beer and curry, so that makes it okay. Or something.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578

    https://www.politico.eu/article/flemish-nationalists-nva-vlaanderen-bart-de-wever-cieltje-van-achter-cry-foul-over-more-english-in-brussels/

    In Belgium, the Flemish liberals want to make English the third administrative language in the country’s capital, Brussels.

    Flemish nationalists aren’t happy about it.

    Are they French in disguise???
  • CorrectHorseBatCorrectHorseBat Posts: 1,761
    Pro_Rata said:

    Boris and Carrie Johnson hosted a close friend, who helped plan their wedding, overnight at Chequers when a number of Covid restrictions were in place, the Guardian has been told.

    Dixie Maloney, a corporate events organiser, stayed at the former prime minister’s grace-and-favour country mansion on 7 May 2021 when indoor gatherings between different households were banned except when “reasonably necessary” for reasons such as work or childcare.

    She is understood to have been informally helping to plan the couples’ festival-style wedding, which took place in the Downing Street garden three weeks later.


    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/jun/07/boris-and-carrie-johnson-hosted-friend-at-chequers-during-covid-restrictions

    May 21.

    But did they consume beer and curry together?
    I'm sure all those who called for SKS to resign at the time will be jumping on this.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,270
    edited June 2023
    Miklosvar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    Did I blame Zelensky for cutting the water supply to Crimea in 2014?
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    Funny. Six weeks ago Hamish said it was all over, Russia had lost, we needed to focus on Taiwan

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/26/vladimir-putin-already-lost-ukraine-chinas-war-taiwan/

    Now he’s saying that we need to focus on an impending nuclear war? Which is it?
    I’ve no idea. He has a ridiculous name

    However I think his point here is valid. If Putin blew the dam - and the evidence points that way - it suggests he is prepared to keep escalating - and there aren’t many further steps he can take before he reaches the nuclear level

    That doesn’t mean a bomb. Could be an “accident” at ZPP
    The prime military significance of the dam event may well turn out to be ZPP-related.

    You say "if Putin blew the dam", but a similar conclusion follows from "if Zelensky blew the dam".

    It could be that both of these f*cking nutters probably with very short penises are pushing the world in the same direction.

    (Yes I have started drinking again under Armageddo-stress after many years of quiet abstention.)
    On the bright side a nuclear war will put lots of dust in the atmosphere and counteract the warming effect
    Every cloud. The idea of a nuclear winter has been dumped, though, as probable Soviet propaganda...,
    I'm not sure that's true

    Georgy Golitsyn pushed idea hard, with Andropov’s backing, to increase support for unilateral disarmament in the West.

    The models turned out to be wrong in a number of ways - the Iraq oil well fires in 1991 were the icing on the cake.

    This is not to say that there wouldn’t be climatic effects from a Global Thermonuclear War - but instant ice age wasn’t one of them.
    IIRC, large volcanic eruptions - which threw lots of particles into the upper atmosphere - have significantly reduced solar radiation reaching the surface, and led to meaningfully lower temperatures.

    Presumably the models predicting nuclear winter were based on those observations.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer

    1816, ascribed to mt Tambora erupting.
    Pinatubo in 1991 reduced global temperatures by about 1 degree for the following 2 years.

    Super volcanoes are the ones to watch though.

    Edit - though it is now thought the sulphur dioxide emissions are the main driver of post eruption cooling rather than particulate matter.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353

    Has anyone yet commented on the recent R&W Blue Wall poll?

    Lab 34 (+13), Con 30 (-20), LD 26 (-1), Green 5 (+4), Reform 5 (+5). Changes v GE 2019.

    Lowest Con vote share since January, highest LD vote share yet (though still behind GE 2019 levels).


    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-blue-wall-voting-intention-4-june-2023/

    Yes. I called it a Dutch Salute.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    edited June 2023

    .

    viewcode said:

    Sean_F said:

    Farooq said:

    viewcode said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    And closing a canal is not blowing up a dam.

    Blowing up dams is specifically a Bad Action in International law.
    They didn't mention that in the film: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Dam_Busters_(film)
    How dare you suggest we hold the UK to the same standards we hold others to.
    It wasn't illegal at the time. See also flamethrowers
    I bet you it would have turned out to be illegal if the Nazis had won though.
    Any form of self-defence would have been illegal, had the Nazis won.

    The Allies never prosecuted the Nazis for bombing civilians, because they did the same. In WWII it was entirely lawful.

    Such bombing campaigns would be unlawful now, but only because precision bombing is a real possibility. Back in WWII, incendiaries were by far the most effective means to destroy enemy infrastructure.
    Although, the RAF went to great pains not to bomb German civilians in 1939.

    The gloves were taken off when it became clear there were no bounds to Nazi depravity.
    It would be more accurate to say that the gloves were taken off when it became clear that there were no bounds to RAF bomber inaccuracy. The error ranges were measured in miles. They started bombing cities because they were the only things big enough to hit reliably. This remained true from 1939 to say late 44. They could have mounted more accurate bombing runs in 44/45 with (say) Mosquitos (and did!), but the highly efficient city bombing machine the RAF had become by then could not have been turned around on a sixpence and Harris didn't want to anyway, defying orders in the process. They did what they could.
    That was also a pull factor but the push factor was the Nazis had no morals or scruples whatsoever and total war was what was required to meet it.
    There is an excellent little museum in the ruins of the St Nickolai Church in Hamburg, a memorial to the fire-bombing of July 1943 that killed about 30 000. It is an unusually well balanced museum, also covering the Nazi bombing of Warsaw and Rotterdam, as well as treatment of Jews and slave labor ours during the air raids (they were prevented from entering shelters).

    It is hard not to be moved by the horrors of firebombing of civilians. Ironically the church was built by a British architect, back when the Germans were our European cousins.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Nicholas_Church,_Hamburg
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794
    edited June 2023

    Sean_F said:

    Farooq said:

    viewcode said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    And closing a canal is not blowing up a dam.

    Blowing up dams is specifically a Bad Action in International law.
    They didn't mention that in the film: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Dam_Busters_(film)
    How dare you suggest we hold the UK to the same standards we hold others to.
    It wasn't illegal at the time. See also flamethrowers
    I bet you it would have turned out to be illegal if the Nazis had won though.
    Any form of self-defence would have been illegal, had the Nazis won.

    The Allies never prosecuted the Nazis for bombing civilians, because they did the same. In WWII it was entirely lawful.

    Such bombing campaigns would be unlawful now, but only because precision bombing is a real possibility. Back in WWII, incendiaries were by far the most effective means to destroy enemy infrastructure.
    Although, the RAF went to great pains not to bomb German civilians in 1939.

    The gloves were taken off when it became clear there were no bounds to Nazi depravity.
    It would be more accurate to say that the gloves were taken off when it became clear that there were no bounds to RAF bomber inaccuracy. The error ranges were measured in miles. They started bombing cities because they were the only things big enough to hit reliably. This remained true from 1939 to say late 44. They could have mounted more accurate bombing runs with (say) Mosquitos (and did!), but the highly efficient city bombing machine the RAF had become by then could not have been turned around on a sixpence and Harris didn't want to anyway, defying orders to do so.

    .

    viewcode said:

    Sean_F said:

    Farooq said:

    viewcode said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    And closing a canal is not blowing up a dam.

    Blowing up dams is specifically a Bad Action in International law.
    They didn't mention that in the film: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Dam_Busters_(film)
    How dare you suggest we hold the UK to the same standards we hold others to.
    It wasn't illegal at the time. See also flamethrowers
    I bet you it would have turned out to be illegal if the Nazis had won though.
    Any form of self-defence would have been illegal, had the Nazis won.

    The Allies never prosecuted the Nazis for bombing civilians, because they did the same. In WWII it was entirely lawful.

    Such bombing campaigns would be unlawful now, but only because precision bombing is a real possibility. Back in WWII, incendiaries were by far the most effective means to destroy enemy infrastructure.
    Although, the RAF went to great pains not to bomb German civilians in 1939.

    The gloves were taken off when it became clear there were no bounds to Nazi depravity.
    It would be more accurate to say that the gloves were taken off when it became clear that there were no bounds to RAF bomber inaccuracy. The error ranges were measured in miles. They started bombing cities because they were the only things big enough to hit reliably. This remained true from 1939 to say late 44. They could have mounted more accurate bombing runs in 44/45 with (say) Mosquitos (and did!), but the highly efficient city bombing machine the RAF had become by then could not have been turned around on a sixpence and Harris didn't want to anyway, defying orders in the process. They did what they could.
    That was also a pull factor but the push factor was the Nazis had no morals or scruples whatsoever and total war was what was required to meet it.
    That is true
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794

    Has anyone yet commented on the recent R&W Blue Wall poll?

    Lab 34 (+13), Con 30 (-20), LD 26 (-1), Green 5 (+4), Reform 5 (+5). Changes v GE 2019.

    Lowest Con vote share since January, highest LD vote share yet (though still behind GE 2019 levels).


    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-blue-wall-voting-intention-4-june-2023/

    Yes. I called it a Dutch Salute.
    I don't understand the Dutch Salute reference. Please explain
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    viewcode said:

    Has anyone yet commented on the recent R&W Blue Wall poll?

    Lab 34 (+13), Con 30 (-20), LD 26 (-1), Green 5 (+4), Reform 5 (+5). Changes v GE 2019.

    Lowest Con vote share since January, highest LD vote share yet (though still behind GE 2019 levels).


    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-blue-wall-voting-intention-4-june-2023/

    Yes. I called it a Dutch Salute.
    I don't understand the Dutch Salute reference. Please explain
    Shirt lifted to flash bare breasts.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    viewcode said:

    Has anyone yet commented on the recent R&W Blue Wall poll?

    Lab 34 (+13), Con 30 (-20), LD 26 (-1), Green 5 (+4), Reform 5 (+5). Changes v GE 2019.

    Lowest Con vote share since January, highest LD vote share yet (though still behind GE 2019 levels).


    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-blue-wall-voting-intention-4-june-2023/

    Yes. I called it a Dutch Salute.
    I don't understand the Dutch Salute reference. Please explain
    Thanks for saving me the trouble.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794
    Foxy said:

    viewcode said:

    Has anyone yet commented on the recent R&W Blue Wall poll?

    Lab 34 (+13), Con 30 (-20), LD 26 (-1), Green 5 (+4), Reform 5 (+5). Changes v GE 2019.

    Lowest Con vote share since January, highest LD vote share yet (though still behind GE 2019 levels).


    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-blue-wall-voting-intention-4-june-2023/

    Yes. I called it a Dutch Salute.
    I don't understand the Dutch Salute reference. Please explain
    Shirt lifted to flash bare breasts.
    Oh, is this your boob theory again?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480
    viewcode said:

    Foxy said:

    viewcode said:

    Has anyone yet commented on the recent R&W Blue Wall poll?

    Lab 34 (+13), Con 30 (-20), LD 26 (-1), Green 5 (+4), Reform 5 (+5). Changes v GE 2019.

    Lowest Con vote share since January, highest LD vote share yet (though still behind GE 2019 levels).


    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-blue-wall-voting-intention-4-june-2023/

    Yes. I called it a Dutch Salute.
    I don't understand the Dutch Salute reference. Please explain
    Shirt lifted to flash bare breasts.
    Oh, is this your boob theory again?
    Not my theory!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231

    RedfieldWilton's Scottish polling tonight is very interesting

    Yousaf seems to have stabilised the SNP and labour not doing as well as expected

    Indeed it seems the conservatives in Scotland are staging a small recovery

    I would venture to suggest labour's hopes of good gains at GE24 will depend almost entirely on the outcome of the police investigations

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1666476416202833921?t=5iT_Ou0l8nnA-gXPkqPLHg&s=19

    It’s not a subsample so hardly worth noting, let alone worthy of a PB thread all of its own.

    Definite signs of Humza not fucking up, mind.



    SKS otoh..



    Definite sign of "close the North Sea" SKS fucking up in Scotland.

    Who the hell is advising him???
    The World Economic Forum.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794
    Foxy said:

    viewcode said:

    Has anyone yet commented on the recent R&W Blue Wall poll?

    Lab 34 (+13), Con 30 (-20), LD 26 (-1), Green 5 (+4), Reform 5 (+5). Changes v GE 2019.

    Lowest Con vote share since January, highest LD vote share yet (though still behind GE 2019 levels).


    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-blue-wall-voting-intention-4-june-2023/

    Yes. I called it a Dutch Salute.
    I don't understand the Dutch Salute reference. Please explain
    Shirt lifted to flash bare breasts.
    ...or is it a two-pronged attack: Lab hitting Con where Con is vulnerable to Lab, Lib hitting Con where Con is vulnerable to Lib?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,965

    Apparently the top concern of constituents in Newcastle Central is democracy in Pakistan, and the second is action for Palestine.

    https://chionwurahmp.com/2023/06/policy-issues-raised-by-constituents-april-2023/

    Less fussed about democracy in Saudi Arabia.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231

    Westie said:

    Sean_F said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    And closing a canal is not blowing up a dam.

    Blowing up dams is specifically a Bad Action in International law.
    What makes the destruction of the dam immoral, and probably unlawful, is that Russia is already the aggressor, and is now causing further harm to its victim.

    Blowing up a dam to slow an invading army would not be unlawful. Nor would it be unlawful for Ukraine to do so, if it gave them some strategic advantage, which was proportionate to the harm caused.
    Unless you can point to legal backup in black and white, I'm calling BS, Surely the whole point of humanitarian law as it applies in war is that all sides must recognise the rights of all civilians (and service personnel prisoners for that matter).
    https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/customary-ihl/v2/rule42

    Is quite clear - no blowing up dams. Formally Considered Naughty in International Law.

    Signed by the USSR and accepted by Russia and Ukraine as the successor states.

    There is nothing similar about reducing water supplies to enemy held territory.
    Good job they didn't do that before the Dambusters' raid.
  • WestieWestie Posts: 426
    edited June 2023
    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    Did I blame Zelensky for cutting the water supply to Crimea in 2014?
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    Funny. Six weeks ago Hamish said it was all over, Russia had lost, we needed to focus on Taiwan

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/26/vladimir-putin-already-lost-ukraine-chinas-war-taiwan/

    Now he’s saying that we need to focus on an impending nuclear war? Which is it?
    I’ve no idea. He has a ridiculous name

    However I think his point here is valid. If Putin blew the dam - and the evidence points that way - it suggests he is prepared to keep escalating - and there aren’t many further steps he can take before he reaches the nuclear level

    That doesn’t mean a bomb. Could be an “accident” at ZPP
    The prime military significance of the dam event may well turn out to be ZPP-related.

    You say "if Putin blew the dam", but a similar conclusion follows from "if Zelensky blew the dam".

    It could be that both of these f*cking nutters probably with very short penises are pushing the world in the same direction.

    (Yes I have started drinking again under Armageddo-stress after many years of quiet abstention.)
    On the bright side a nuclear war will put lots of dust in the atmosphere and counteract the warming effect
    Every cloud. The idea of a nuclear winter has been dumped, though, as probable Soviet propaganda, even though when I were a lad it was being pushed out by the authorities in Britain something rotten,
    The idea of a nuclear winter has not been dumped its a known fact that a high density of particulate matter in the atmosphere reduces solar forcing. Trying to claim otherwise shows you are an idiot
    You just have to read even the Wikipedia article on nuclear winter and compare it with what was propagandised in say Britain in say 1980. You can insult me as much as you like, but the nuclear war causes nuclear winter hypothesis is not advanced anywhere near as much as it was in the 1980s. It has in fact been blamed on KGB propaganda. I am looking for a source to show you that.

    Edit: here you go, and this is by no means the only source:

    https://archive.is/v6lKf
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353
    viewcode said:

    Has anyone yet commented on the recent R&W Blue Wall poll?

    Lab 34 (+13), Con 30 (-20), LD 26 (-1), Green 5 (+4), Reform 5 (+5). Changes v GE 2019.

    Lowest Con vote share since January, highest LD vote share yet (though still behind GE 2019 levels).


    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-blue-wall-voting-intention-4-june-2023/

    Yes. I called it a Dutch Salute.
    I don't understand the Dutch Salute reference. Please explain
    Dutch Salute theory in polling explained. Look for a gradual or even sudden rise for this trend across surveys.

    For LLG frequently showing in the 60s, why wait till May 1st to work out how you are tactically voting, and tell pollsters something different till then - when you know today and can be right up front will the pollster?

    Dutch Salute theory is based on HY being right about something he posted last week - in much of the blue wall the main challenge to the Tories are Lib Dem’s - so if it goes with current polling (HY uses a lot of If’s) this degree of Labour voting will be wasted votes in so many places and hand the seats to the Tories.

    Hang on, it’s not even an If there’s going to be tactical voting. With 60% LLG a great number will know exactly how to vote tactical a long time before the General Election.

    However, this tactical voting is going to be massively regional - many telling pollsters today they will vote Lab, will start to tell pollsters Lib Dem instead. But they will do this in certain places, not evenly across the nation. In the Nationwide poll Labour will FALL - Labours lead over the Tories will FALL - all this with no extra Tory votes but Lib Dem’s on the rise.

    This national polling, at first glance looking much more optimistic for the Tories, will utterly disguise what is really shaping up - the national polling picture cannot give us what will actually be going on - swing calculators based on average swing will slip woefully behind the huge variation in tactical vote between place to place, region to region, wall to wall.

    Voters knowing in the coming months how they will vote tactically in the general election, simply becoming all up front with pollsters about their vote, and how tactical voting will be wildly different from place to place not showing in the nationwide polls, this explains Dutch Salute theory. What to look out for, what is causing it, and the added caution this builds into the NATIONAL POLLS, that, if I’m right, will if anything show Tories closing the gap to Labour, yet completely miss the tactical storm brewing.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,800
    Foxy said:

    viewcode said:

    Has anyone yet commented on the recent R&W Blue Wall poll?

    Lab 34 (+13), Con 30 (-20), LD 26 (-1), Green 5 (+4), Reform 5 (+5). Changes v GE 2019.

    Lowest Con vote share since January, highest LD vote share yet (though still behind GE 2019 levels).


    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-blue-wall-voting-intention-4-june-2023/

    Yes. I called it a Dutch Salute.
    I don't understand the Dutch Salute reference. Please explain
    Shirt lifted to flash bare breasts.
    Yes, I didn't get it either - we must live very sheltered lives, my friends.

    As I reported last night, I think this is a frothy poll for the LDs and we'll see the Conservatives up again in a fortnight. I do wonder if the publicity around new Liberal Democrat-led administrations taking over from Conservative administrations at local Council level has had a slight impact on LD fortunes.

    The Con-Lab swing is a decent 16.5% but as I also mentioned, straight UNS isn't going to be helpful - some seats will see much smaller swings, other seats much larger.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,794

    viewcode said:

    Has anyone yet commented on the recent R&W Blue Wall poll?

    Lab 34 (+13), Con 30 (-20), LD 26 (-1), Green 5 (+4), Reform 5 (+5). Changes v GE 2019.

    Lowest Con vote share since January, highest LD vote share yet (though still behind GE 2019 levels).


    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-blue-wall-voting-intention-4-june-2023/

    Yes. I called it a Dutch Salute.
    I don't understand the Dutch Salute reference. Please explain
    Dutch Salute theory in polling explained. Look for a gradual or even sudden rise for this trend across surveys.

    For LLG frequently showing in the 60s, why wait till May 1st to work out how you are tactically voting, and tell pollsters something different till then - when you know today and can be right up front will the pollster?

    Dutch Salute theory is based on HY being right about something he posted last week - in much of the blue wall the main challenge to the Tories are Lib Dem’s - so if it goes with current polling (HY uses a lot of If’s) this degree of Labour voting will be wasted votes in so many places and hand the seats to the Tories.

    Hang on, it’s not even an If there’s going to be tactical voting. With 60% LLG a great number will know exactly how to vote tactical a long time before the General Election.

    However, this tactical voting is going to be massively regional - many telling pollsters today they will vote Lab, will start to tell pollsters Lib Dem instead. But they will do this in certain places, not evenly across the nation. In the Nationwide poll Labour will FALL - Labours lead over the Tories will FALL - all this with no extra Tory votes but Lib Dem’s on the rise.

    This national polling, at first glance looking much more optimistic for the Tories, will utterly disguise what is really shaping up - the national polling picture cannot give us what will actually be going on - swing calculators based on average swing will slip woefully behind the huge variation in tactical vote between place to place, region to region, wall to wall.

    Voters knowing in the coming months how they will vote tactically in the general election, simply becoming all up front with pollsters about their vote, and how tactical voting will be wildly different from place to place not showing in the nationwide polls, this explains Dutch Salute theory. What to look out for, what is causing it, and the added caution this builds into the NATIONAL POLLS, that, if I’m right, will if anything show Tories closing the gap to Labour, yet completely miss the tactical storm brewing.
    I see, thank you.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,800
    Presumably we've noted this development:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-surrey-65833006

    To be honest, under the stewardship of Rishi Sunak when Chancellor, the whole country could be put under a Section 114 notice.

    The biggest disaster is the Victoria Square development which was meant to create a new commercial and residential heart for Woking but the £750 million previous value has been downgraded to £200 million. For a Borough Council (not a unitary), the scale of the debt is extraordinary - I'm also forced to ask why this measure wasn't taken when the Conservative administration at the Town Hall was piling up these debts.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,480

    viewcode said:

    Has anyone yet commented on the recent R&W Blue Wall poll?

    Lab 34 (+13), Con 30 (-20), LD 26 (-1), Green 5 (+4), Reform 5 (+5). Changes v GE 2019.

    Lowest Con vote share since January, highest LD vote share yet (though still behind GE 2019 levels).


    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-blue-wall-voting-intention-4-june-2023/

    Yes. I called it a Dutch Salute.
    I don't understand the Dutch Salute reference. Please explain
    Dutch Salute theory in polling explained. Look for a gradual or even sudden rise for this trend across surveys.

    For LLG frequently showing in the 60s, why wait till May 1st to work out how you are tactically voting, and tell pollsters something different till then - when you know today and can be right up front will the pollster?

    Dutch Salute theory is based on HY being right about something he posted last week - in much of the blue wall the main challenge to the Tories are Lib Dem’s - so if it goes with current polling (HY uses a lot of If’s) this degree of Labour voting will be wasted votes in so many places and hand the seats to the Tories.

    Hang on, it’s not even an If there’s going to be tactical voting. With 60% LLG a great number will know exactly how to vote tactical a long time before the General Election.

    However, this tactical voting is going to be massively regional - many telling pollsters today they will vote Lab, will start to tell pollsters Lib Dem instead. But they will do this in certain places, not evenly across the nation. In the Nationwide poll Labour will FALL - Labours lead over the Tories will FALL - all this with no extra Tory votes but Lib Dem’s on the rise.

    This national polling, at first glance looking much more optimistic for the Tories, will utterly disguise what is really shaping up - the national polling picture cannot give us what will actually be going on - swing calculators based on average swing will slip woefully behind the huge variation in tactical vote between place to place, region to region, wall to wall.

    Voters knowing in the coming months how they will vote tactically in the general election, simply becoming all up front with pollsters about their vote, and how tactical voting will be wildly different from place to place not showing in the nationwide polls, this explains Dutch Salute theory. What to look out for, what is causing it, and the added caution this builds into the NATIONAL POLLS, that, if I’m right, will if anything show Tories closing the gap to Labour, yet completely miss the tactical storm brewing.
    No it's about norks.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    stodge said:

    Presumably we've noted this development:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-surrey-65833006

    To be honest, under the stewardship of Rishi Sunak when Chancellor, the whole country could be put under a Section 114 notice.

    The biggest disaster is the Victoria Square development which was meant to create a new commercial and residential heart for Woking but the £750 million previous value has been downgraded to £200 million. For a Borough Council (not a unitary), the scale of the debt is extraordinary - I'm also forced to ask why this measure wasn't taken when the Conservative administration at the Town Hall was piling up these debts.

    Intderesting how quickly reality was faced once the Conservatives lost control.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    Did I blame Zelensky for cutting the water supply to Crimea in 2014?
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    Funny. Six weeks ago Hamish said it was all over, Russia had lost, we needed to focus on Taiwan

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/26/vladimir-putin-already-lost-ukraine-chinas-war-taiwan/

    Now he’s saying that we need to focus on an impending nuclear war? Which is it?
    I’ve no idea. He has a ridiculous name

    However I think his point here is valid. If Putin blew the dam - and the evidence points that way - it suggests he is prepared to keep escalating - and there aren’t many further steps he can take before he reaches the nuclear level

    That doesn’t mean a bomb. Could be an “accident” at ZPP
    The prime military significance of the dam event may well turn out to be ZPP-related.

    You say "if Putin blew the dam", but a similar conclusion follows from "if Zelensky blew the dam".

    It could be that both of these f*cking nutters probably with very short penises are pushing the world in the same direction.

    (Yes I have started drinking again under Armageddo-stress after many years of quiet abstention.)
    On the bright side a nuclear war will put lots of dust in the atmosphere and counteract the warming effect
    Every cloud. The idea of a nuclear winter has been dumped, though, as probable Soviet propaganda...,
    I'm not sure that's true

    Georgy Golitsyn pushed idea hard, with Andropov’s backing, to increase support for unilateral disarmament in the West.

    The models turned out to be wrong in a number of ways - the Iraq oil well fires in 1991 were the icing on the cake.

    This is not to say that there wouldn’t be climatic effects from a Global Thermonuclear War - but instant ice age wasn’t one of them.
    IIRC, large volcanic eruptions - which threw lots of particles into the upper atmosphere - have significantly reduced solar radiation reaching the surface, and led to meaningfully lower temperatures.

    Presumably the models predicting nuclear winter were based on those observations.
    It's actually more fun than that - a lot of it started with trying to model the atmosphere of Mars. Working out the behaviour of particulate was just a part of it.

    It was one of those occasions, where the initial idea was "We will get a huge effect". As modelling got better, the effects got smaller. Now people talk about a Nuclear Autumn.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639

    RedfieldWilton's Scottish polling tonight is very interesting

    Yousaf seems to have stabilised the SNP and labour not doing as well as expected

    Indeed it seems the conservatives in Scotland are staging a small recovery

    I would venture to suggest labour's hopes of good gains at GE24 will depend almost entirely on the outcome of the police investigations

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1666476416202833921?t=5iT_Ou0l8nnA-gXPkqPLHg&s=19

    It’s not a subsample so hardly worth noting, let alone worthy of a PB thread all of its own.

    Definite signs of Humza not fucking up, mind.



    SKS otoh..



    Definite sign of "close the North Sea" SKS fucking up in Scotland.

    Who the hell is advising him???
    The World Economic Forum.
    And quite a lot of voters in Scotland agree, too, whether one likes it or not.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,080
    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Westie said:

    Farooq said:

    Westie said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    Did I blame Zelensky for cutting the water supply to Crimea in 2014?
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    Funny. Six weeks ago Hamish said it was all over, Russia had lost, we needed to focus on Taiwan

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/26/vladimir-putin-already-lost-ukraine-chinas-war-taiwan/

    Now he’s saying that we need to focus on an impending nuclear war? Which is it?
    I’ve no idea. He has a ridiculous name

    However I think his point here is valid. If Putin blew the dam - and the evidence points that way - it suggests he is prepared to keep escalating - and there aren’t many further steps he can take before he reaches the nuclear level

    That doesn’t mean a bomb. Could be an “accident” at ZPP
    The prime military significance of the dam event may well turn out to be ZPP-related.

    You say "if Putin blew the dam", but a similar conclusion follows from "if Zelensky blew the dam".

    It could be that both of these f*cking nutters probably with very short penises are pushing the world in the same direction.

    (Yes I have started drinking again under Armageddo-stress after many years of quiet abstention.)
    On the bright side a nuclear war will put lots of dust in the atmosphere and counteract the warming effect
    Every cloud. The idea of a nuclear winter has been dumped, though, as probable Soviet propaganda, even though when I were a lad it was being pushed out by the authorities in Britain something rotten,
    The idea of a nuclear winter has not been dumped its a known fact that a high density of particulate matter in the atmosphere reduces solar forcing. Trying to claim otherwise shows you are an idiot
    The particulate matter won't stay in the atmosphere for all that long though, so the effect will be somewhat short-lived. The greatest risk is probably from a volcanic eruption that continues for some time, like the Laki eruption of 1783-4.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639
    Foxy said:

    viewcode said:

    Has anyone yet commented on the recent R&W Blue Wall poll?

    Lab 34 (+13), Con 30 (-20), LD 26 (-1), Green 5 (+4), Reform 5 (+5). Changes v GE 2019.

    Lowest Con vote share since January, highest LD vote share yet (though still behind GE 2019 levels).


    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-blue-wall-voting-intention-4-june-2023/

    Yes. I called it a Dutch Salute.
    I don't understand the Dutch Salute reference. Please explain
    Shirt lifted to flash bare breasts.
    Apparently this is an example. Though I have a suspicion something is not missing.

    https://www.imdb.com/title/tt18228732/
  • WestieWestie Posts: 426
    edited June 2023
    So Dutch Salute "theory" is a hypothesis to do with the regionalisation of tactical voting and the bearing of breasts. Am I on the right lines?

    ...Back to my second bottle of wine tonight...
  • stodge said:

    Presumably we've noted this development:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-surrey-65833006

    To be honest, under the stewardship of Rishi Sunak when Chancellor, the whole country could be put under a Section 114 notice.

    The biggest disaster is the Victoria Square development which was meant to create a new commercial and residential heart for Woking but the £750 million previous value has been downgraded to £200 million. For a Borough Council (not a unitary), the scale of the debt is extraordinary - I'm also forced to ask why this measure wasn't taken when the Conservative administration at the Town Hall was piling up these debts.

    It's a really major scandal in local government (not just Tory administrations, but quite a lot were) which thought they were massive property companies, who'd run a Council on the side off the profits.

    It was horrific in terms of risk, and driven by a conviction that there is such a thing as free money.

    And, on the side, there was individual corruption which will progressively emerge.

    It's a lot in Woking, but they're just the tip of a pretty rancid iceberg, and the oversight wasn't in place.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353
    edited June 2023
    Foxy said:

    viewcode said:

    Has anyone yet commented on the recent R&W Blue Wall poll?

    Lab 34 (+13), Con 30 (-20), LD 26 (-1), Green 5 (+4), Reform 5 (+5). Changes v GE 2019.

    Lowest Con vote share since January, highest LD vote share yet (though still behind GE 2019 levels).


    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-blue-wall-voting-intention-4-june-2023/

    Yes. I called it a Dutch Salute.
    I don't understand the Dutch Salute reference. Please explain
    Dutch Salute theory in polling explained. Look for a gradual or even sudden rise for this trend across surveys.

    For LLG frequently showing in the 60s, why wait till May 1st to work out how you are tactically voting, and tell pollsters something different till then - when you know today and can be right up front will the pollster?

    Dutch Salute theory is based on HY being right about something he posted last week - in much of the blue wall the main challenge to the Tories are Lib Dem’s - so if it goes with current polling (HY uses a lot of If’s) this degree of Labour voting will be wasted votes in so many places and hand the seats to the Tories.

    Hang on, it’s not even an If there’s going to be tactical voting. With 60% LLG a great number will know exactly how to vote tactical a long time before the General Election.

    However, this tactical voting is going to be massively regional - many telling pollsters today they will vote Lab, will start to tell pollsters Lib Dem instead. But they will do this in certain places, not evenly across the nation. In the Nationwide poll Labour will FALL - Labours lead over the Tories will FALL - all this with no extra Tory votes but Lib Dem’s on the rise.

    This national polling, at first glance looking much more optimistic for the Tories, will utterly disguise what is really shaping up - the national polling picture cannot give us what will actually be going on - swing calculators based on average swing will slip woefully behind the huge variation in tactical vote between place to place, region to region, wall to wall.

    Voters knowing in the coming months how they will vote tactically in the general election, simply becoming all up front with pollsters about their vote, and how tactical voting will be wildly different from place to place not showing in the nationwide polls, this explains Dutch Salute theory. What to look out for, what is causing it, and the added caution this builds into the NATIONAL POLLS, that, if I’m right, will if anything show Tories closing the gap to Labour, yet completely miss the tactical storm brewing.
    No it's about norks.
    I’m the psephologist who created the theory! I should know what it is!

    I do have a point. BJO keeps pointing out Labour lead has fallen from in the twenties to about 12 to 14 - which isn’t much opposition lead at all one year before an election, 2015 and all that, and he asks for an explanation.

    I’ve given the explanation.

    If the LLG has moved nowhere, Tories gone nowhere, Lib Dem’s creeping up and Labour down, that narrowing of the gap disguises the tactical taking shape.

    Why should LLG wait till next April to make up their mind when they know today and can start being straight up front with pollsters.

    Stodge has got this one wrong. This is not Lib Dem froth, they are actually down in Blue Wall. They should gain those Labour votes and Labour go backwards.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578

    Foxy said:

    viewcode said:

    Has anyone yet commented on the recent R&W Blue Wall poll?

    Lab 34 (+13), Con 30 (-20), LD 26 (-1), Green 5 (+4), Reform 5 (+5). Changes v GE 2019.

    Lowest Con vote share since January, highest LD vote share yet (though still behind GE 2019 levels).


    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-blue-wall-voting-intention-4-june-2023/

    Yes. I called it a Dutch Salute.
    I don't understand the Dutch Salute reference. Please explain
    Dutch Salute theory in polling explained. Look for a gradual or even sudden rise for this trend across surveys.

    For LLG frequently showing in the 60s, why wait till May 1st to work out how you are tactically voting, and tell pollsters something different till then - when you know today and can be right up front will the pollster?

    Dutch Salute theory is based on HY being right about something he posted last week - in much of the blue wall the main challenge to the Tories are Lib Dem’s - so if it goes with current polling (HY uses a lot of If’s) this degree of Labour voting will be wasted votes in so many places and hand the seats to the Tories.

    Hang on, it’s not even an If there’s going to be tactical voting. With 60% LLG a great number will know exactly how to vote tactical a long time before the General Election.

    However, this tactical voting is going to be massively regional - many telling pollsters today they will vote Lab, will start to tell pollsters Lib Dem instead. But they will do this in certain places, not evenly across the nation. In the Nationwide poll Labour will FALL - Labours lead over the Tories will FALL - all this with no extra Tory votes but Lib Dem’s on the rise.

    This national polling, at first glance looking much more optimistic for the Tories, will utterly disguise what is really shaping up - the national polling picture cannot give us what will actually be going on - swing calculators based on average swing will slip woefully behind the huge variation in tactical vote between place to place, region to region, wall to wall.

    Voters knowing in the coming months how they will vote tactically in the general election, simply becoming all up front with pollsters about their vote, and how tactical voting will be wildly different from place to place not showing in the nationwide polls, this explains Dutch Salute theory. What to look out for, what is causing it, and the added caution this builds into the NATIONAL POLLS, that, if I’m right, will if anything show Tories closing the gap to Labour, yet completely miss the tactical storm brewing.
    No it's about norks.
    I’m the psephologist who created the theory! I should know what it is!

    I do have a point. BJO keeps pointing out Labour lead has fallen from in the twenties to about 12 to 14 - which isn’t much opposition lead at all one year before an election, 2015 and all that, and he asks for an explanation.

    I’ve given the explanation.

    If the LLG has moved nowhere, Tories gone nowhere, Lib Dem’s creeping up and Labour down, that narrowing of the gap disguises the tactical taking shape.

    Why should LLG wait till next April to make up their mind when they know today and can start being straight up front with pollsters.
    No Tory poll leads for 18 months and 1 day :)
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353
    Westie said:

    So Dutch Salute "theory" is a hypothesis to do with the regionalisation of tactical voting and the bearing of breasts. Am I on the right lines?

    ...Back to my second bottle of wine tonight...

    No breasts at all.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,800

    stodge said:

    Presumably we've noted this development:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-surrey-65833006

    To be honest, under the stewardship of Rishi Sunak when Chancellor, the whole country could be put under a Section 114 notice.

    The biggest disaster is the Victoria Square development which was meant to create a new commercial and residential heart for Woking but the £750 million previous value has been downgraded to £200 million. For a Borough Council (not a unitary), the scale of the debt is extraordinary - I'm also forced to ask why this measure wasn't taken when the Conservative administration at the Town Hall was piling up these debts.

    It's a really major scandal in local government (not just Tory administrations, but quite a lot were) which thought they were massive property companies, who'd run a Council on the side off the profits.

    It was horrific in terms of risk, and driven by a conviction that there is such a thing as free money.

    And, on the side, there was individual corruption which will progressively emerge.

    It's a lot in Woking, but they're just the tip of a pretty rancid iceberg, and the oversight wasn't in place.
    Not quite - the first councils to go into the Investment Property game were empowered by changes in legislation brought in, I think, by the Coalition which allowed Councils to purchase properties for Investment purposes outside their boundaries.

    This happened as a mechanism for allowing Councils to generate alternative sources of income rather than simply relying on Council Tax, parking and Government grants.

    The idea was sensible investment would generate high rental yields and provide a guaranteed revenue stream irrespective of changes (reductions) in Government grant.

    In the early 2010s, in the immediate aftermath of the GFC, the only organisations active in the Property Investment market were Councils and pension funds which were in truth the only two groups at that time with funds to invest.

    Those Councils who were able to move quickly snapped up some really good properties and so/me decent rental yields but by the time the likes of Woking got involved the market was flooded and the good deals were gone so the alternative was investment in town centre regeneration projects.

    On paper these looked attractive bringing in both residential and commercial investment and improving some frankly neglected and run down urban spaces. This was a brilliant idea until the pandemic wrecked the commercial property market and with interest rates rising Councils faced the double whammy of increasing borrowing costs and declining investment returns.

    Woking isn't the only authority who have had their fingers burnt but the original concept and theory was interesting.
  • WestieWestie Posts: 426

    Westie said:

    So Dutch Salute "theory" is a hypothesis to do with the regionalisation of tactical voting and the bearing of breasts. Am I on the right lines?

    ...Back to my second bottle of wine tonight...

    No breasts at all.
    After about 20 minutes of work I have divined that "LLG" means "Lab - LibDem - Green".

    My own favourite metric is right/left where right includes nationalists and far right and greens, and centrists such as liberals are ignored. OK everyone has their own metric and their metrics are of varying utility, but mine at least points up a big difference between Scotland and Wales.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706
    The parents of the private school I mentioned have raised £1.2m in 48 hours. The school say they need £2m and that is looking possible. It seems a serious misjudgment by the now former Board.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,578

    Apparently the top concern of constituents in Newcastle Central is democracy in Pakistan, and the second is action for Palestine.

    https://chionwurahmp.com/2023/06/policy-issues-raised-by-constituents-april-2023/

    Palestine did you say? Not Ukraine?



  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,301
    So happy for David Moyes.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,661
    To all the bettors here - can Putin's behaviour be understood as a gambler? His actions are double-or-quits type gambles. He's a plunger, this much is clear, and it seems he's heading for gambler's ruin. His opponents, by contrast, are cautious and rational hedgers for whom the stakes are higher, existential even. Putin is also, as is well known, a judoka who likes to unbalance his opponent. I cannot see him embarking on negotiations that imply compromise. It doesn't fit his world view or personality.
  • WestieWestie Posts: 426

    Apparently the top concern of constituents in Newcastle Central is democracy in Pakistan, and the second is action for Palestine.

    https://chionwurahmp.com/2023/06/policy-issues-raised-by-constituents-april-2023/

    Palestine did you say? Not Ukraine?



    Are you completely nuts? Who thinks in terms of km^2? And in any case, who votes according to what they think is happening in foreign countries thousanfds of miles away?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,872
    Westie said:

    Apparently the top concern of constituents in Newcastle Central is democracy in Pakistan, and the second is action for Palestine.

    https://chionwurahmp.com/2023/06/policy-issues-raised-by-constituents-april-2023/

    Palestine did you say? Not Ukraine?



    And in any case, who votes according to what they think is happening in foreign countries thousanfds of miles away?
    Corbynites.
This discussion has been closed.