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Could Rishi be replaced before the election? – politicalbetting.com
Could Rishi be replaced before the election? – politicalbetting.com
All the signs are that the Tories are going to struggle to hold onto power at the general election. According to the John Curtice calculation they will need a overall GB vote lead of about 3% to ensure that they have got a majority. Labour by contrast need 7%.
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The party is preparing for opposition, the live discussion now is how to minimise the length of the stay.
If that is the sentiment, then Sunak is probably safe so long as he is perceived as minimising the damage. The interesting question is if that is true. I do not hear any love out there for Sunak.
Sorry, actually pretty normally sized boots.
Next.
If he squeezes DKs and RefUK voters as today's MRP poll shows he could also get a hung parliament
Unless it’s a Truss comeback of course. In which case I retract what I just said.
I hope it also won't become a vegan-type thing (eg how do you know if someone owns an electric car...)
*Not "Burke and Hare". They've already been there, done that.
Labour failing to get an absolute majority would still have a comfortable working majority as Lab + LD + Green + Alliance + SNP + PC is going to be a lot of seats. There is a broad alignment of parties now out to neuter you. Either you find a way to win an election, or you will be done in.
So look to the shires. The surviving MPs will have a big say on who gets put before the membership.
Labour's route back to power, if that's how this ends up, needed a 2019 defeat to enable it. The 2017 loss simply wasn't severe enough for Labour's own good. The Tories might need a 2019 rather than a 2017.
Health? Always possible, vanishingly unlikely.
Scandal? You never know, but how bad would it have to be?
Howling mediocrity? Yes, but that needs someone unambiguous to convincingly claim they can do better. And nobody can do that. (The public nay not like that, 4 PMs in a term, but frankly who cares what the public think.)
Electoral defeat? In the absence of the other factors, that one kicks in eventually, probably late 2024.
Would be refreshing to see though!
No, me neither.
Of course he could be replaced. It's unlikely, and would be absurd, but this is the Tory party we're talking about; the unlikely and absurd have been their stock in trade for a while now.
Compare to the years of huge Labour poll leads after the Tory landslide defeat of 1997
For some reason the Tory Sleaze vibe hasn't solidified and Rishi has a small window to try to address the "nothing's working" feeling that people have.
Inflation is slower than expected coming down although employment is healthy and the summer will see pressure off the NHS.
Strikes are losing sympathy (he boldly states, but my gut is rarely wrong) and that leaves the JSO people dawdling along the road which gives the govt time to show they are tough on the causes of global warming.
Boat people numbers, meanwhile, are declining and for many that is a critical test for the government.
I would say that it may well be SKS but it may be the nearest-run thing. Perhaps a hung parliament.
He will join Inter Miami. 🇺🇸
https://twitter.com/DeadlineDayLive/status/1666435043940605952
Beats Saudi Arabia, I guess.
Remember there are over 100 Tory MPs prepared to make Boris Johnson PM again, they will try and oust Rishi is he whips the Tories to expel Boris Johnson.
Kiss's Gene Simmons in Parliament to witness #PMQs as guest of DUP MP Ian Paisley
https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1666430675350695936
I bloody hate it when you get a wine list at a restaurant and the categories of wine are eg "sweet and juicy", "dry and minerally", "fat and robust", etc. What the flying fuck is that all supposed to mean? I'll give them minerally (and they had the obligatory chablis in that section) but jeez.
OK perhaps not on topic.
"I met with Chris and he will be leaving CNN," David Zaslav tells CNN employees at the start of the morning editorial call.
https://twitter.com/oliverdarcy/status/1666430971753709569
You need a sense of humour and wit to win PMQs allied with that hard work.
In recent history, the PM best performers at PMQs did a stint as LOTO before.
(wait for it)
On the other hand, Saudi Arabia.
would be "brave, Prime Minister". Perhaps even "courageous". And might not work, anyway.
What exactly is Rishi's way out?
That's also the model other companies are moving slowly towards - VW's €25,000 EV model isn't due to 2025-26.
The right way to do PMQs is exactly like Oliver did today, exactly like how many lesser boxers earn a living in boxing - turn it into a scrap, lots of hanging on, body punching, blocking, low punches, sly head work.
Sunak comes to PMQs to tell the world how brilliant things are like it’s a PPB, he doesn’t come for a proper scrap, he can’t do it.
*Yes I did mean Spaniard.
Suella's appointment might have kept some of the post-Brexit mad Tories idea alive although the non-bonfire of the laws might have set them somewhat back on track.
As for Sunak, this could be his Kobayashi Maru and he's no James Tiberius Kirk.
ToryLibDem Sussex and said what a top bloke Keir Starmer was. A data point of one, but it did happen. He was a lawyer.I took a room service call from Gene Simmons one morning. He wanted "oatmeal" for breakfast. I had never heard of oatmeal and didn't realise this was American for porridge. He got so frustrated he started to sing "I feel so broke up I wanna go home" down the phone.
That's it. That's the anecdote.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65835312
The one time it would actually be good to hear from @Leon.
I wonder who’ll buy it?
“Can I just shock you? I think a lot of so-called ‘woke’ commentary makes some very valid points”
Off topic: Is this Prince Harry trial what all of this type of trial are like? He seems to have no direct evidence of wrong-doing against him. If he wins, the law is an ass. (I don’t doubt the wrong-doing occurred but I see no proof).
Killer fact: Labour and Lib Dem’s don’t want Sunak replaced before the next election.
Won't be surprised if he wins.
Shakespeare had it right.
No chance
When MPs installed Rishi, they weren’t supposed to still be at 28% at this stage. Sunak was supposed to go down better with voters than this, but Sunakism is less inspiring than Starmerism, and Sunak seems unready for number ten, out of touch on policy and accident prone.
When the brochure went round, replacing Boris with Rishi, it didn’t mention Sunak would keep them in the 20s, double digit defeat to Labour.
Boris didn’t even poll in the 20s! Truss is long gone, Tories poll in 20s because of Sunak’s negatives, the ones you gloss over and try to spin away, is largely the truth if not the whole truth.
Killer fact: Labour and Lib Dem’s don’t want Sunak changed before the next election.
However, he's no Churchill, who was also 5ft 6.
Theresa May won her vote of confidence and was still ousted within six months.
Margaret Thatcher won her vote of confidence* and was resigned within 48 hours.
*De facto vote of confidence.
Once a vote of confidence is triggered it begins an inexorable loss of confidence in the PM.
Michael Sheen wants Welsh actors to play Welsh people, seemingly forgetting that, at its heart, acting is pretending to be someone else.
According to Google Maps, I’m 551km by road from the Saudi border.
same as London to Leeds
People are talking about the Mail group but I reckon that would be disallowed because of competition law
The key thing is both the Telegraph and the Spec are successful and profitable - and influential (esp the latter) - so I imagine there
will be plenty of interested parties
I think he’s already said it will be a free vote but if a Tory MP votes against any sanction then I expect the opposition will make sure their constituents know about it !
I think Johnson will avoid any strong sanctions and be found to have recklessly misled the Commons , I can’t see them finding he deliberately misled the Commons .
Nor do Labour and Lib Dem’s want Rishi removed before the election, they can do without the worry of a Black Swan creating some sort of Cleggasm.
However, where todays Super Poll shows SNP support bleeding not to Labour but to don’t know, the chances are imo SNP may go into general election with different leadership and in a different place than they are now so can get all those don’t knows back, depriving Labour of a dozen or two chickens it looks like they are already counting before they hatch.
It’s still possible Sunak has to go because a revelation or scandal is just so bad.
Labour perhaps are in the weakest position here, as so much of their appeal rests on Starmer’s shoulders. If he has a heart attack, or stroke, and Rayner leads Labour into the election, the Tories can finish largest party or even majority from this position.
In short: SNP benefit in general election from change of leader, and I expect them to do this, Sunak is expendable but is being kept on by a party resigned to defeat as their fall guy, Labour face electoral crash if it loses its current leader.
I suppose I'd better go and work out what to say now. Those 30 minutes don't fill themselves .....
On topic - no. Unless the Tories want to look like even bigger numpties than they do already.
The Lib Dems, Greens and SNP will all make demands that Starmer is not able to agree to. How much will he be willing to betray his own party and supporters just to stay in power?