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Could Rishi be replaced before the election? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,162
edited June 2023 in General
imageCould Rishi be replaced before the election? – politicalbetting.com

All the signs are that the Tories are going to struggle to hold onto power at the general election. According to the John Curtice calculation they will need a overall GB vote lead of about 3% to ensure that they have got a majority. Labour by contrast need 7%.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    Nobody has been good at PMQs since my boy Dave retired.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368

    Nobody has been good at PMQs since my boy Dave retired.

    It requires a certain skill set and a willingness to do the weekly preparation work - which was why Bozo was so bad at it because he didn't do the latter.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,583
    edited June 2023
    3rd. QTWTAIN.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,188
    5 pence on at 40-1. Tremendous !
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,643
    edited June 2023
    Unattributable third-hand anecdote from an anonymous leading Tory...

    The party is preparing for opposition, the live discussion now is how to minimise the length of the stay.

    If that is the sentiment, then Sunak is probably safe so long as he is perceived as minimising the damage. The interesting question is if that is true. I do not hear any love out there for Sunak.

  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,315
    NB, Apropos the previous thread: How many Oxford residents does PB have?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,955
    They'll be big boots to fill.
    Sorry, actually pretty normally sized boots.


  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    On topic: no.

    Next.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    edited June 2023
    Of course he won't be, for starters Sunak performs much better than his party overall in polls and is close to Starmer as preferred PM.

    If he squeezes DKs and RefUK voters as today's MRP poll shows he could also get a hung parliament
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Classic QTWTAIN. Four PMs off the back of one general election? Come on. The attacks write themselves.

    Unless it’s a Truss comeback of course. In which case I retract what I just said.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    fpt because why not.
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Miklosvar said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I bought the original Tesla Roadster, and then a Model S.

    More recently, I bought a Rivian.

    EVs are great if:

    (a) you have somewhere to charge it at home
    (b) you don't regularly do 300+ mile trips

    If either of those things are not true, then either a straight ICE or a plug-in hybrid is perfect for you.

    There's another requirement:
    (c) If you can afford one. EVs are still hellishly expensive compared to ICE cars - unless you go for ones with limitations, such as even more reduced range.
    The cost differential is closing every day.
    The crossover will come by the end of the decade, quite probably.

    People will continue to grouse about the charging problem. It will be solved quickly for the wealthy, which might slow the process of solving it for everyone else.
    The charging problem is rather a chicken and egg one. It isn't economic to build them until there is a market.

    Range anxiety is pretty short lived when owning an EV. How often do you drive more than 250 miles without a half hour break? EV cars are also a pleasure to drive, smooth, powerful and very quick acceleration.
    Lots of people do once a year, over Christmas and New Year. Just one three hour wait then (and there were plenty) is enough to spoil your whole year, especially with small children with you. Giles Coren did a piece saying he is retransitioning for this reason.
    One three hour wait is enough to ruin your entire year?

    I own an electric car (well truck). Over Christmas, the family got into the truck and headed up the mountains to Big Bear. Over the Christmas week, we went round the ski resorts in the area, returning to our AirBnB every night.

    Aside from one 20 minute wait for a fast charger, we had no problems whatsoever with a 500 mile round trip.

    If you have a driveway, don't regularly travel 300m+ a day, and can afford it, an electric car is best.
    A long-range Rivian truck costs $100,000, does it not?

    Yes, there are some good $100k EVs, but 99% of people don’t spend that much on a car, so it’s still very much a luxury good.

    If, like most people, you have £30k to spend on a new car, you have the choice of a Leaf, or, umm, not much else. Even the cheapest electric Mini is £33k.
    $79k for the Rivian with the large battery pack (350 miles). So, yes, it's a luxury product. But then again it's a self driving truck that has a 350 mile range, will handle pretty much any off road you throw at it, and does 0-60 faster than my old Porsche 911.
    Late to the debate but I think you have very well encapsulated the electric car market right now. Whether this will change by 2030 who knows.

    I hope it also won't become a vegan-type thing (eg how do you know if someone owns an electric car...)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,829
    Bit odd, no consideration of other possibilities such as Ms Truss or Mr Johnson doing a resurrectionist* job on their careers.

    *Not "Burke and Hare". They've already been there, done that.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,900
    HYUFD said:

    Of course he won't be, for starters Sunak performs much better than his party overall in polls and is close to Starmer as preferred PM.

    If he squeezes DKs and RefUK voters as today's MRP poll shows he could also get a hung parliament

    A hung parliament yes - but one where you are in opposition.

    Labour failing to get an absolute majority would still have a comfortable working majority as Lab + LD + Green + Alliance + SNP + PC is going to be a lot of seats. There is a broad alignment of parties now out to neuter you. Either you find a way to win an election, or you will be done in.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    On topic: I was surprised anyone wanted the job after Johnson - it was clear that there would be no reward for leading the country post Covid, and the kinds of policies people were proposing were very unpopular: Truss' full throated Reaganism, and Rishi's back to Osborne austerity. Johnson won, in part, because he said the magic money tree was in bloom - the first Conservative to do so in a long time. So why anyone would want the poisoned chalice of the PM position I do not know. For Tory MPs worried about being kicked out, they don't really have much hope short of changing their policy positions to more popular ones, and they are unlikely to do that. Johnson will not lead them to another GE victory, and I think his desire to be seen as a winner would prevent him from risking trying to lead now when he has the possibility of being LOTO (which would suit him very well - all rhetoric no action). Maybe Braverman or Badenoch want the job, but again it wouldn't improve the Tory electoral chances. ATM Rishi actually looks like an asset to the party - he is outpolling the party in popularity, clawing back some of the support, and is managing to keep his head above the water of general Tory scandal. If I were a Tory MP I would instead be thinking how much worse it could be if Johnson came back (considering the new cracks in the investigation into misconduct) or Braverman (with her scandals) or Badenoch (who appeals to the base but is considered too right wing by most typical voters). Rishi comes across as out of touch, yes, but most voters (incorrectly, in my view) seem to think he is at least competent.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,215

    On topic: no.

    Next.

    Why might he go?

    Health? Always possible, vanishingly unlikely.

    Scandal? You never know, but how bad would it have to be?

    Howling mediocrity? Yes, but that needs someone unambiguous to convincingly claim they can do better. And nobody can do that. (The public nay not like that, 4 PMs in a term, but frankly who cares what the public think.)

    Electoral defeat? In the absence of the other factors, that one kicks in eventually, probably late 2024.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    HYUFD said:

    Of course he won't be, for starters Sunak performs much better than his party overall in polls and is close to Starmer as preferred PM.

    If he squeezes DKs and RefUK voters as today's MRP poll shows he could also get a hung parliament

    A hung parliament yes - but one where you are in opposition.

    Labour failing to get an absolute majority would still have a comfortable working majority as Lab + LD + Green + Alliance + SNP + PC is going to be a lot of seats. There is a broad alignment of parties now out to neuter you. Either you find a way to win an election, or you will be done in.
    I dispute 'comfortable'. If its a rainbow coalition there will be a price to pay to the minor parties.

    Would be refreshing to see though!
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Is there any suggestion of Tory MPs trying to jump ship to RefUK? I know one of them who had the whip removed joined them, but is there anyone in a seat that could go Lab and could have a sizeable chunk of potential RefUK support (like the Stoke seats) thinking maybe they could outswim the toxic Tory brand by going over?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    Jonathan said:

    Unattributable third-hand anecdote from an anonymous leading Tory...

    The party is preparing for opposition, the live discussion now is how to minimise the length of the stay.

    If that is the sentiment, then Sunak is probably safe so long as he is perceived as minimising the damage. The interesting question is if that is true. I do not hear any love out there for Sunak.

    Do you hear any love out there for SKS?

    No, me neither.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Sandpit said:

    3rd. QTWTAIN.

    It's not.

    Of course he could be replaced. It's unlikely, and would be absurd, but this is the Tory party we're talking about; the unlikely and absurd have been their stock in trade for a while now.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918
    edited June 2023

    HYUFD said:

    Of course he won't be, for starters Sunak performs much better than his party overall in polls and is close to Starmer as preferred PM.

    If he squeezes DKs and RefUK voters as today's MRP poll shows he could also get a hung parliament

    A hung parliament yes - but one where you are in opposition.

    Labour failing to get an absolute majority would still have a comfortable working majority as Lab + LD + Green + Alliance + SNP + PC is going to be a lot of seats. There is a broad alignment of parties now out to neuter you. Either you find a way to win an election, or you will be done in.
    Maybe but within a year of the hung parliament of 2010, Ed Miliband's Labour were back in front in the polls of the Tory led government.

    Compare to the years of huge Labour poll leads after the Tory landslide defeat of 1997
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    edited June 2023
    I think it will be SKS with the country resignedly shrugging their shoulders but we are in cruise mode atm. No one is setting the world on fire so we are at the mercy of events.

    For some reason the Tory Sleaze vibe hasn't solidified and Rishi has a small window to try to address the "nothing's working" feeling that people have.

    Inflation is slower than expected coming down although employment is healthy and the summer will see pressure off the NHS.

    Strikes are losing sympathy (he boldly states, but my gut is rarely wrong) and that leaves the JSO people dawdling along the road which gives the govt time to show they are tough on the causes of global warming.

    Boat people numbers, meanwhile, are declining and for many that is a critical test for the government.

    I would say that it may well be SKS but it may be the nearest-run thing. Perhaps a hung parliament.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,215
    Carnyx said:

    Bit odd, no consideration of other possibilities such as Ms Truss or Mr Johnson doing a resurrectionist* job on their careers.

    *Not "Burke and Hare". They've already been there, done that.

    Burke and Harebrained, I think you may mean.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    edited June 2023
    Leo Messi has informed Barcelona that he will not return. ❌

    He will join Inter Miami. 🇺🇸

    https://twitter.com/DeadlineDayLive/status/1666435043940605952

    Beats Saudi Arabia, I guess.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,058
    148grss said:

    Is there any suggestion of Tory MPs trying to jump ship to RefUK? I know one of them who had the whip removed joined them, but is there anyone in a seat that could go Lab and could have a sizeable chunk of potential RefUK support (like the Stoke seats) thinking maybe they could outswim the toxic Tory brand by going over?

    The MP (Andrew Bridgen) went to Reclaim
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    On topic, I've been banging on for a while Rishi Sunak's key moment of vulnerability will be if the Committee of Privileges recommends suspending Boris Johnson for more 10 days.

    Remember there are over 100 Tory MPs prepared to make Boris Johnson PM again, they will try and oust Rishi is he whips the Tories to expel Boris Johnson.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    Nigelb said:

    Leo Messi has informed Barcelona that he will not return. ❌

    He will join Inter Miami. 🇺🇸

    https://twitter.com/DeadlineDayLive/status/1666435043940605952

    Beats Saudi Arabia, I guess.

    Messi: "So, David, I'll join, but on one condition: you sack that useless **** of a manager."
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Farooq said:

    Jonathan said:

    Unattributable third-hand anecdote from an anonymous leading Tory...

    The party is preparing for opposition, the live discussion now is how to minimise the length of the stay.

    If that is the sentiment, then Sunak is probably safe so long as he is perceived as minimising the damage. The interesting question is if that is true. I do not hear any love out there for Sunak.

    Minimising electoral damage mightn't be in their best interests. It depends which seats would fall as to who would be available to take over following a defeat. If, as the likes of Information Specialist HYUFD think, they lurch farther to the right then it'll be a different electoral outcome compared to if a One Notion leader takes over.

    So look to the shires. The surviving MPs will have a big say on who gets put before the membership.

    Labour's route back to power, if that's how this ends up, needed a 2019 defeat to enable it. The 2017 loss simply wasn't severe enough for Labour's own good. The Tories might need a 2019 rather than a 2017.
    If the Tory survivors elect a Badenoch or a Braverman as LOTO, or start going all Flag, Faith and Family (as were the themes of the NatC conference) they will be in the wilderness for ages. The quickest route back to power would be a Johnsonite approach - say you will splash the money around and hope people believe you. Most voters in the UK are not US small staters, too many generations have seen that government run services can work (when properly funded) like the NHS, and therefore do not have that inherent distrust that Americans have. Even a majority of Conservative voters believe some rail, electricity and water should be nationalised! Instead of trying to sow that distrust, Tories should do what they did during the Olympics - say these things are truly British institutions that define Britishness and making them work for all good British people is what they stand for. Too many people see the Tories as standing for making services worse rather than what Tories probably should try to project, which is they are reserving services for the "deserving, real Brits". Whilst I think that kind of stand would be morally abhorrent, that is what a winning Tory message looks like.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    CatMan said:

    148grss said:

    Is there any suggestion of Tory MPs trying to jump ship to RefUK? I know one of them who had the whip removed joined them, but is there anyone in a seat that could go Lab and could have a sizeable chunk of potential RefUK support (like the Stoke seats) thinking maybe they could outswim the toxic Tory brand by going over?

    The MP (Andrew Bridgen) went to Reclaim
    Oh, my bad.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    "What I just saw in there was controlled chaos"

    Kiss's Gene Simmons in Parliament to witness #PMQs as guest of DUP MP Ian Paisley

    https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1666430675350695936
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    TOPPING said:

    fpt because why not.

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Miklosvar said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I bought the original Tesla Roadster, and then a Model S.

    More recently, I bought a Rivian.

    EVs are great if:

    (a) you have somewhere to charge it at home
    (b) you don't regularly do 300+ mile trips

    If either of those things are not true, then either a straight ICE or a plug-in hybrid is perfect for you.

    There's another requirement:
    (c) If you can afford one. EVs are still hellishly expensive compared to ICE cars - unless you go for ones with limitations, such as even more reduced range.
    The cost differential is closing every day.
    The crossover will come by the end of the decade, quite probably.

    People will continue to grouse about the charging problem. It will be solved quickly for the wealthy, which might slow the process of solving it for everyone else.
    The charging problem is rather a chicken and egg one. It isn't economic to build them until there is a market.

    Range anxiety is pretty short lived when owning an EV. How often do you drive more than 250 miles without a half hour break? EV cars are also a pleasure to drive, smooth, powerful and very quick acceleration.
    Lots of people do once a year, over Christmas and New Year. Just one three hour wait then (and there were plenty) is enough to spoil your whole year, especially with small children with you. Giles Coren did a piece saying he is retransitioning for this reason.
    One three hour wait is enough to ruin your entire year?

    I own an electric car (well truck). Over Christmas, the family got into the truck and headed up the mountains to Big Bear. Over the Christmas week, we went round the ski resorts in the area, returning to our AirBnB every night.

    Aside from one 20 minute wait for a fast charger, we had no problems whatsoever with a 500 mile round trip.

    If you have a driveway, don't regularly travel 300m+ a day, and can afford it, an electric car is best.
    A long-range Rivian truck costs $100,000, does it not?

    Yes, there are some good $100k EVs, but 99% of people don’t spend that much on a car, so it’s still very much a luxury good.

    If, like most people, you have £30k to spend on a new car, you have the choice of a Leaf, or, umm, not much else. Even the cheapest electric Mini is £33k.
    $79k for the Rivian with the large battery pack (350 miles). So, yes, it's a luxury product. But then again it's a self driving truck that has a 350 mile range, will handle pretty much any off road you throw at it, and does 0-60 faster than my old Porsche 911.
    Late to the debate but I think you have very well encapsulated the electric car market right now. Whether this will change by 2030 who knows.

    I hope it also won't become a vegan-type thing (eg how do you know if someone owns an electric car...)
    The acceleration is a by product of having motors and batteries designed for regenerative braking.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    On topic.

    I bloody hate it when you get a wine list at a restaurant and the categories of wine are eg "sweet and juicy", "dry and minerally", "fat and robust", etc. What the flying fuck is that all supposed to mean? I'll give them minerally (and they had the obligatory chablis in that section) but jeez.

    OK perhaps not on topic.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    That Trump infomercial worked out really well for Licht, then.

    "I met with Chris and he will be leaving CNN," David Zaslav tells CNN employees at the start of the morning editorial call.
    https://twitter.com/oliverdarcy/status/1666430971753709569
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    eek said:

    Nobody has been good at PMQs since my boy Dave retired.

    It requires a certain skill set and a willingness to do the weekly preparation work - which was why Bozo was so bad at it because he didn't do the latter.
    Indeed, but both Gordon Brown and Theresa May did the preparation work and were terrible at it.

    You need a sense of humour and wit to win PMQs allied with that hard work.

    In recent history, the PM best performers at PMQs did a stint as LOTO before.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957

    TOPPING said:

    fpt because why not.

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Miklosvar said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I bought the original Tesla Roadster, and then a Model S.

    More recently, I bought a Rivian.

    EVs are great if:

    (a) you have somewhere to charge it at home
    (b) you don't regularly do 300+ mile trips

    If either of those things are not true, then either a straight ICE or a plug-in hybrid is perfect for you.

    There's another requirement:
    (c) If you can afford one. EVs are still hellishly expensive compared to ICE cars - unless you go for ones with limitations, such as even more reduced range.
    The cost differential is closing every day.
    The crossover will come by the end of the decade, quite probably.

    People will continue to grouse about the charging problem. It will be solved quickly for the wealthy, which might slow the process of solving it for everyone else.
    The charging problem is rather a chicken and egg one. It isn't economic to build them until there is a market.

    Range anxiety is pretty short lived when owning an EV. How often do you drive more than 250 miles without a half hour break? EV cars are also a pleasure to drive, smooth, powerful and very quick acceleration.
    Lots of people do once a year, over Christmas and New Year. Just one three hour wait then (and there were plenty) is enough to spoil your whole year, especially with small children with you. Giles Coren did a piece saying he is retransitioning for this reason.
    One three hour wait is enough to ruin your entire year?

    I own an electric car (well truck). Over Christmas, the family got into the truck and headed up the mountains to Big Bear. Over the Christmas week, we went round the ski resorts in the area, returning to our AirBnB every night.

    Aside from one 20 minute wait for a fast charger, we had no problems whatsoever with a 500 mile round trip.

    If you have a driveway, don't regularly travel 300m+ a day, and can afford it, an electric car is best.
    A long-range Rivian truck costs $100,000, does it not?

    Yes, there are some good $100k EVs, but 99% of people don’t spend that much on a car, so it’s still very much a luxury good.

    If, like most people, you have £30k to spend on a new car, you have the choice of a Leaf, or, umm, not much else. Even the cheapest electric Mini is £33k.
    $79k for the Rivian with the large battery pack (350 miles). So, yes, it's a luxury product. But then again it's a self driving truck that has a 350 mile range, will handle pretty much any off road you throw at it, and does 0-60 faster than my old Porsche 911.
    Late to the debate but I think you have very well encapsulated the electric car market right now. Whether this will change by 2030 who knows.

    I hope it also won't become a vegan-type thing (eg how do you know if someone owns an electric car...)
    The acceleration is a by product of having motors and batteries designed for regenerative braking.
    Yeah it's better than my Porsche 911 but lags a touch my Veyron.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,918

    On topic, I've been banging on for a while Rishi Sunak's key moment of vulnerability will be if the Committee of Privileges recommends suspending Boris Johnson for more 10 days.

    Remember there are over 100 Tory MPs prepared to make Boris Johnson PM again, they will try and oust Rishi is he whips the Tories to expel Boris Johnson.

    Maybe but they need over 180 Tory MPs to vote for a VONC to remove Rishi, 100 is nowhere near enough
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155
    Farooq said:

    Jonathan said:

    Unattributable third-hand anecdote from an anonymous leading Tory...

    The party is preparing for opposition, the live discussion now is how to minimise the length of the stay.

    If that is the sentiment, then Sunak is probably safe so long as he is perceived as minimising the damage. The interesting question is if that is true. I do not hear any love out there for Sunak.

    Do you hear any love out there for SKS?

    No, me neither.
    There were huge rallies for Corbyn, plenty of love. That's not the right way any more, if it ever was.
    I mean, people seem to have forgotten that Corbyn's Labour polled at 40% in 2017 and still outdid Miliband and Brown in 2019. The people that get called Corbyn fanatics (like those called Bernie Bros in the US) may sing about Corbyn, but what they care about is the policy prescription. Whilst people say Johnson won on Brexit, I would suggest his willingness to say he would spend money liberally rather than only spend what could be raked back via changes to healthcare costs or taxes was what allowed him to counter Corbyn's talking points and win with such a large margin. People believe in a magic money tree, because it is clearly there. It exists when banks need bailouts, it exists when a catastrophe like Covid hits, but somehow it isn't allowed to exist for average people wanting a better standard of living. That's what cratered May, that's why Trussenomics didn't get public support, and that's why Rishi can't win on his return back to Osbornism.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    Farooq said:

    Jonathan said:

    Unattributable third-hand anecdote from an anonymous leading Tory...

    The party is preparing for opposition, the live discussion now is how to minimise the length of the stay.

    If that is the sentiment, then Sunak is probably safe so long as he is perceived as minimising the damage. The interesting question is if that is true. I do not hear any love out there for Sunak.

    Do you hear any love out there for SKS?

    No, me neither.
    There were huge rallies for Corbyn, plenty of love. That's not the right way any more, if it ever was.
    Hush your mouth you'll trigger @bjo.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,215

    On topic, I've been banging on for a while Rishi Sunak's key moment of vulnerability will be if the Committee of Privileges recommends suspending Boris Johnson for more 10 days.

    Remember there are over 100 Tory MPs prepared to make Boris Johnson PM again, they will try and oust Rishi is he whips the Tories to expel Boris Johnson.

    Presumably to save Big Dog, Rishi would have to go further and actively whip MPs to positively save Boris. After all, pretty much every opposition MP will vote to expel. Which
    would be "brave, Prime Minister". Perhaps even "courageous". And might not work, anyway.

    What exactly is Rishi's way out?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    148grss said:

    Is there any suggestion of Tory MPs trying to jump ship to RefUK? I know one of them who had the whip removed joined them, but is there anyone in a seat that could go Lab and could have a sizeable chunk of potential RefUK support (like the Stoke seats) thinking maybe they could outswim the toxic Tory brand by going over?

    Why would they? The history of little parties is not one of success.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368
    TOPPING said:

    fpt because why not.

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Miklosvar said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I bought the original Tesla Roadster, and then a Model S.

    More recently, I bought a Rivian.

    EVs are great if:

    (a) you have somewhere to charge it at home
    (b) you don't regularly do 300+ mile trips

    If either of those things are not true, then either a straight ICE or a plug-in hybrid is perfect for you.

    There's another requirement:
    (c) If you can afford one. EVs are still hellishly expensive compared to ICE cars - unless you go for ones with limitations, such as even more reduced range.
    The cost differential is closing every day.
    The crossover will come by the end of the decade, quite probably.

    People will continue to grouse about the charging problem. It will be solved quickly for the wealthy, which might slow the process of solving it for everyone else.
    The charging problem is rather a chicken and egg one. It isn't economic to build them until there is a market.

    Range anxiety is pretty short lived when owning an EV. How often do you drive more than 250 miles without a half hour break? EV cars are also a pleasure to drive, smooth, powerful and very quick acceleration.
    Lots of people do once a year, over Christmas and New Year. Just one three hour wait then (and there were plenty) is enough to spoil your whole year, especially with small children with you. Giles Coren did a piece saying he is retransitioning for this reason.
    One three hour wait is enough to ruin your entire year?

    I own an electric car (well truck). Over Christmas, the family got into the truck and headed up the mountains to Big Bear. Over the Christmas week, we went round the ski resorts in the area, returning to our AirBnB every night.

    Aside from one 20 minute wait for a fast charger, we had no problems whatsoever with a 500 mile round trip.

    If you have a driveway, don't regularly travel 300m+ a day, and can afford it, an electric car is best.
    A long-range Rivian truck costs $100,000, does it not?

    Yes, there are some good $100k EVs, but 99% of people don’t spend that much on a car, so it’s still very much a luxury good.

    If, like most people, you have £30k to spend on a new car, you have the choice of a Leaf, or, umm, not much else. Even the cheapest electric Mini is £33k.
    $79k for the Rivian with the large battery pack (350 miles). So, yes, it's a luxury product. But then again it's a self driving truck that has a 350 mile range, will handle pretty much any off road you throw at it, and does 0-60 faster than my old Porsche 911.
    Late to the debate but I think you have very well encapsulated the electric car market right now. Whether this will change by 2030 who knows.

    I hope it also won't become a vegan-type thing (eg how do you know if someone owns an electric car...)
    Remember that Tesla's business model was to build expensive models first and use the profits to allow them to reduce costs to the point that they could build (and sell at a profit) a $20-25,000 model...

    That's also the model other companies are moving slowly towards - VW's €25,000 EV model isn't due to 2025-26.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Nigelb said:

    "What I just saw in there was controlled chaos"

    Kiss's Gene Simmons in Parliament to witness #PMQs as guest of DUP MP Ian Paisley

    https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1666430675350695936

    He thought it was controlled?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    Jonathan said:

    Unattributable third-hand anecdote from an anonymous leading Tory...

    The party is preparing for opposition, the live discussion now is how to minimise the length of the stay.

    If that is the sentiment, then Sunak is probably safe so long as he is perceived as minimising the damage. The interesting question is if that is true. I do not hear any love out there for Sunak.

    Do you hear any love out there for SKS?

    No, me neither.
    Corbyn and Johnson both got an awful lot of love. Look at them now. Starmer’s better liked than Sunak and the lack of a messiah complex will serve him well.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    On topic. It was noticeable today how much better than Sunak Dowden is at the niche arena of PMQs, he seemed better briefed than Sunak. The reason Dowden is better than Sunak at PMQs is because Sunak’s “I’m very nice and getting things down” modus operandi just doesn’t work at PMQs at all - when Labour carefully select a true stat, Sunak reaches for fake stats to argue back and gets in trouble for telling many lies.

    The right way to do PMQs is exactly like Oliver did today, exactly like how many lesser boxers earn a living in boxing - turn it into a scrap, lots of hanging on, body punching, blocking, low punches, sly head work.

    Sunak comes to PMQs to tell the world how brilliant things are like it’s a PPB, he doesn’t come for a proper scrap, he can’t do it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    Farooq said:

    On topic, I've been banging on for a while Rishi Sunak's key moment of vulnerability will be if the Committee of Privileges recommends suspending Boris Johnson for more 10 days.

    Remember there are over 100 Tory MPs prepared to make Boris Johnson PM again, they will try and oust Rishi is he whips the Tories to expel Boris Johnson.

    When do they even report, though? Before or after the sale of new petrol cars is banned in 2030?
    It was going to be this month but the police investigations have thrown a Spaniard* into the works.

    *Yes I did mean Spaniard.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    DougSeal said:

    Jonathan said:

    Unattributable third-hand anecdote from an anonymous leading Tory...

    The party is preparing for opposition, the live discussion now is how to minimise the length of the stay.

    If that is the sentiment, then Sunak is probably safe so long as he is perceived as minimising the damage. The interesting question is if that is true. I do not hear any love out there for Sunak.

    Do you hear any love out there for SKS?

    No, me neither.
    Corbyn and Johnson both got an awful lot of love. Look at them now. Starmer’s better liked than Sunak and the lack of a messiah complex will serve him well.
    It's a question of whether Sunak has shot Starmer's boring and sensible technocrat fox.

    Suella's appointment might have kept some of the post-Brexit mad Tories idea alive although the non-bonfire of the laws might have set them somewhat back on track.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,955

    Carnyx said:

    Bit odd, no consideration of other possibilities such as Ms Truss or Mr Johnson doing a resurrectionist* job on their careers.

    *Not "Burke and Hare". They've already been there, done that.

    Burke and Harebrained, I think you may mean.
    Or Berk and Harebrained even.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631

    On topic, I've been banging on for a while Rishi Sunak's key moment of vulnerability will be if the Committee of Privileges recommends suspending Boris Johnson for more 10 days.

    Remember there are over 100 Tory MPs prepared to make Boris Johnson PM again, they will try and oust Rishi is he whips the Tories to expel Boris Johnson.

    Presumably to save Big Dog, Rishi would have to go further and actively whip MPs to positively save Boris. After all, pretty much every opposition MP will vote to expel. Which
    would be "brave, Prime Minister". Perhaps even "courageous". And might not work, anyway.

    What exactly is Rishi's way out?
    As we saw with Owen Paterson a PM trying to interfere leads to bad outcomes.

    As for Sunak, this could be his Kobayashi Maru and he's no James Tiberius Kirk.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368

    The right way to do PMQs is exactly like Oliver did today, exactly like how many lesser boxers earn a living in boxing - turn it into a scrap, lots of hanging on, body punching, blocking, low punches, sly head work.

    If that's the right way to handle PMQs we need to scrap them as if the answer is to attack the person asking a question it doesn't get the problem solved.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,643
    edited June 2023

    Jonathan said:

    Unattributable third-hand anecdote from an anonymous leading Tory...

    The party is preparing for opposition, the live discussion now is how to minimise the length of the stay.

    If that is the sentiment, then Sunak is probably safe so long as he is perceived as minimising the damage. The interesting question is if that is true. I do not hear any love out there for Sunak.

    Do you hear any love out there for SKS?

    No, me neither.
    In May, a middle aged bloke in green wellies and a Barbour jacket came up to me as I was out leafletting in deepest Tory LibDem Sussex and said what a top bloke Keir Starmer was. A data point of one, but it did happen. He was a lawyer.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,986

    Nigelb said:

    "What I just saw in there was controlled chaos"

    Kiss's Gene Simmons in Parliament to witness #PMQs as guest of DUP MP Ian Paisley

    https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1666430675350695936

    He thought it was controlled?
    Gene Simmons anecdote. Back in 1996 as a student I had a summer job serving in a country house hotel in the Midlands, called Combe Abbey. We occasionally got celebs staying. I remember one night Mandy Allwood (she of the tragic octuplets) and Max Cliffors plus a bunch of retainers were there.

    I took a room service call from Gene Simmons one morning. He wanted "oatmeal" for breakfast. I had never heard of oatmeal and didn't realise this was American for porridge. He got so frustrated he started to sing "I feel so broke up I wanna go home" down the phone.

    That's it. That's the anecdote.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Telegraph and Spectator up for sale -

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65835312

    The one time it would actually be good to hear from @Leon.

    I wonder who’ll buy it?

    “Can I just shock you? I think a lot of so-called ‘woke’ commentary makes some very valid points”
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011
    Farooq said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leo Messi has informed Barcelona that he will not return. ❌

    He will join Inter Miami. 🇺🇸

    https://twitter.com/DeadlineDayLive/status/1666435043940605952

    Beats Saudi Arabia, I guess.

    On the one hand moving to an unliveable climate full of religious nutters and governed by a dangerous extremist who disdains minorities and women.

    (wait for it)

    On the other hand, Saudi Arabia.
    He could always come to Saudi-on-Tyne if he wanted a share of the petro-dollars.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,051
    OT: No.

    Off topic: Is this Prince Harry trial what all of this type of trial are like? He seems to have no direct evidence of wrong-doing against him. If he wins, the law is an ass. (I don’t doubt the wrong-doing occurred but I see no proof).
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,643
    DougSeal said:

    Telegraph and Spectator up for sale -

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65835312

    The one time it would actually be good to hear from @Leon.

    I wonder who’ll buy it?

    “Can I just shock you? I think a lot of so-called ‘woke’ commentary makes some very valid points”

    How many Roubles is it up for?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    eek said:

    TOPPING said:

    fpt because why not.

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Miklosvar said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I bought the original Tesla Roadster, and then a Model S.

    More recently, I bought a Rivian.

    EVs are great if:

    (a) you have somewhere to charge it at home
    (b) you don't regularly do 300+ mile trips

    If either of those things are not true, then either a straight ICE or a plug-in hybrid is perfect for you.

    There's another requirement:
    (c) If you can afford one. EVs are still hellishly expensive compared to ICE cars - unless you go for ones with limitations, such as even more reduced range.
    The cost differential is closing every day.
    The crossover will come by the end of the decade, quite probably.

    People will continue to grouse about the charging problem. It will be solved quickly for the wealthy, which might slow the process of solving it for everyone else.
    The charging problem is rather a chicken and egg one. It isn't economic to build them until there is a market.

    Range anxiety is pretty short lived when owning an EV. How often do you drive more than 250 miles without a half hour break? EV cars are also a pleasure to drive, smooth, powerful and very quick acceleration.
    Lots of people do once a year, over Christmas and New Year. Just one three hour wait then (and there were plenty) is enough to spoil your whole year, especially with small children with you. Giles Coren did a piece saying he is retransitioning for this reason.
    One three hour wait is enough to ruin your entire year?

    I own an electric car (well truck). Over Christmas, the family got into the truck and headed up the mountains to Big Bear. Over the Christmas week, we went round the ski resorts in the area, returning to our AirBnB every night.

    Aside from one 20 minute wait for a fast charger, we had no problems whatsoever with a 500 mile round trip.

    If you have a driveway, don't regularly travel 300m+ a day, and can afford it, an electric car is best.
    A long-range Rivian truck costs $100,000, does it not?

    Yes, there are some good $100k EVs, but 99% of people don’t spend that much on a car, so it’s still very much a luxury good.

    If, like most people, you have £30k to spend on a new car, you have the choice of a Leaf, or, umm, not much else. Even the cheapest electric Mini is £33k.
    $79k for the Rivian with the large battery pack (350 miles). So, yes, it's a luxury product. But then again it's a self driving truck that has a 350 mile range, will handle pretty much any off road you throw at it, and does 0-60 faster than my old Porsche 911.
    Late to the debate but I think you have very well encapsulated the electric car market right now. Whether this will change by 2030 who knows.

    I hope it also won't become a vegan-type thing (eg how do you know if someone owns an electric car...)
    Remember that Tesla's business model was to build expensive models first and use the profits to allow them to reduce costs to the point that they could build (and sell at a profit) a $20-25,000 model...

    That's also the model other companies are moving slowly towards - VW's €25,000 EV model isn't due to 2025-26.
    Yup - see the Secret Business Plan that got posted on the Tesla website many years back.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    HYUFD said:

    Of course he won't be, for starters Sunak performs much better than his party overall in polls and is close to Starmer as preferred PM.

    If he squeezes DKs and RefUK voters as today's MRP poll shows he could also get a hung parliament

    You gloss it up best you can, but it’s on the fundamentals Where you are wrong though, when Sunak was appointed by MPs, Tories weren’t supposed to still be on 28% at this stage. When Boris was ousted they weren’t even in the 20s! The brochure that led to Boris ousted to become replaced by Sunak didn’t have Sunak keeping the Tories in the twenty percents and double digits behind Labour and an absolute rout. He was supposed to perform better with the public than this but he has bombed. Under briefed and over accident prone is the truth.

    Killer fact: Labour and Lib Dem’s don’t want Sunak replaced before the next election.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821
    18 months and 1 day since the last Tory poll lead!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Farooq said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leo Messi has informed Barcelona that he will not return. ❌

    He will join Inter Miami. 🇺🇸

    https://twitter.com/DeadlineDayLive/status/1666435043940605952

    Beats Saudi Arabia, I guess.

    On the one hand moving to an unliveable climate full of religious nutters and governed by a dangerous extremist who disdains minorities and women.

    (wait for it)

    On the other hand, Saudi Arabia.
    Hands up who'd choose Saudi ...
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,643

    HYUFD said:

    Of course he won't be, for starters Sunak performs much better than his party overall in polls and is close to Starmer as preferred PM.

    If he squeezes DKs and RefUK voters as today's MRP poll shows he could also get a hung parliament

    You gloss it up best you can, but it’s on the fundamentals Where you are wrong though, when Sunak was appointed by MPs, Tories weren’t supposed to still be on 28% at this stage. When Boris was ousted they weren’t even in the 20s! The brochure that led to Boris ousted to become replaced by Sunak didn’t have Sunak keeping the Tories in the twenty percents and double digits behind Labour and an absolute rout. He was supposed to perform better with the public than this but he has bombed. Under briefed and over accident prone is the truth.

    Killer fact: Labour and Lib Dem’s don’t want Sunak replaced before the next election.
    Please don't replace Sunak with back Liz Truss. :smile:
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    biggles said:

    OT: No.

    Off topic: Is this Prince Harry trial what all of this type of trial are like? He seems to have no direct evidence of wrong-doing against him. If he wins, the law is an ass. (I don’t doubt the wrong-doing occurred but I see no proof).

    Balance of probabilities though rather than beyond reasonable doubt. Unless someone admits it, where is the direct evidence of wrong-doing coming from?

    Won't be surprised if he wins.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,277
    edited June 2023

    18 months and 1 day since the last Tory poll lead!

    SKS fans please explain
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,215
    eek said:

    The right way to do PMQs is exactly like Oliver did today, exactly like how many lesser boxers earn a living in boxing - turn it into a scrap, lots of hanging on, body punching, blocking, low punches, sly head work.

    If that's the right way to handle PMQs we need to scrap them as if the answer is to attack the person asking a question it doesn't get the problem solved.
    Going back to the end of the previous thread, if we could arrange for the Oxford relief road to pass through the middle of the Union building, that might be for the best.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    Of course he won't be, for starters Sunak performs much better than his party overall in polls and is close to Starmer as preferred PM.

    If he squeezes DKs and RefUK voters as today's MRP poll shows he could also get a hung parliament

    You gloss it up best you can, but it’s on the fundamentals Where you are wrong though, when Sunak was appointed by MPs, Tories weren’t supposed to still be on 28% at this stage. When Boris was ousted they weren’t even in the 20s! The brochure that led to Boris ousted to become replaced by Sunak didn’t have Sunak keeping the Tories in the twenty percents and double digits behind Labour and an absolute rout. He was supposed to perform better with the public than this but he has bombed. Under briefed and over accident prone is the truth.

    Killer fact: Labour and Lib Dem’s don’t want Sunak replaced before the next election.
    Please don't replace Sunak with back Liz Truss. :smile:
    But it would lead to Doug Seal becoming the smuggest ever PBer, which is some achievement.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,277
    edited June 2023

    biggles said:

    OT: No.

    Off topic: Is this Prince Harry trial what all of this type of trial are like? He seems to have no direct evidence of wrong-doing against him. If he wins, the law is an ass. (I don’t doubt the wrong-doing occurred but I see no proof).

    Balance of probabilities though rather than beyond reasonable doubt. Unless someone admits it, where is the direct evidence of wrong-doing coming from?

    Won't be surprised if he wins.
    Yeah, in a civil trial the burden of proof is less than in a criminal trial so he would still win though my impression is that he hasn't been an especially good witness so it'll be interesting to see what happens.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    Jonathan said:

    Jonathan said:

    Unattributable third-hand anecdote from an anonymous leading Tory...

    The party is preparing for opposition, the live discussion now is how to minimise the length of the stay.

    If that is the sentiment, then Sunak is probably safe so long as he is perceived as minimising the damage. The interesting question is if that is true. I do not hear any love out there for Sunak.

    Do you hear any love out there for SKS?

    No, me neither.
    In May, a middle aged bloke in green wellies and a Barbour jacket came up to me as I was out leafletting in deepest Tory LibDem Sussex and said what a top bloke Keir Starmer was. A data point of one, but it did happen. He was a lawyer.
    That's lawyers for you.

    Shakespeare had it right.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Farooq said:

    Nigelb said:

    Farooq said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leo Messi has informed Barcelona that he will not return. ❌

    He will join Inter Miami. 🇺🇸

    https://twitter.com/DeadlineDayLive/status/1666435043940605952

    Beats Saudi Arabia, I guess.

    On the one hand moving to an unliveable climate full of religious nutters and governed by a dangerous extremist who disdains minorities and women.

    (wait for it)

    On the other hand, Saudi Arabia.
    Hands up who'd choose Saudi ...
    I would choose neither, but, if forced, I would live in Saudi Arabia ahead of Florida. No question at all.
    I'd be cautious about raising your hand, though.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    DougSeal said:

    Jonathan said:

    Unattributable third-hand anecdote from an anonymous leading Tory...

    The party is preparing for opposition, the live discussion now is how to minimise the length of the stay.

    If that is the sentiment, then Sunak is probably safe so long as he is perceived as minimising the damage. The interesting question is if that is true. I do not hear any love out there for Sunak.

    Do you hear any love out there for SKS?

    No, me neither.
    Corbyn and Johnson both got an awful lot of love. Look at them now. Starmer’s better liked than Sunak and the lack of a messiah complex any personality at all will serve him well.
    FTFY

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,660
    On Topic

    No chance
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,583
    Nigelb said:

    "What I just saw in there was controlled chaos"

    Kiss's Gene Simmons in Parliament to witness #PMQs as guest of DUP MP Ian Paisley

    https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/1666430675350695936

    He loves crazy crazy, umm, afternoons?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    HYUFD said:

    Of course he won't be, for starters Sunak performs much better than his party overall in polls and is close to Starmer as preferred PM.

    If he squeezes DKs and RefUK voters as today's MRP poll shows he could also get a hung parliament

    As much as you dress it up, you can’t change what’s underneath, and that’s where you are wrong.

    When MPs installed Rishi, they weren’t supposed to still be at 28% at this stage. Sunak was supposed to go down better with voters than this, but Sunakism is less inspiring than Starmerism, and Sunak seems unready for number ten, out of touch on policy and accident prone.

    When the brochure went round, replacing Boris with Rishi, it didn’t mention Sunak would keep them in the 20s, double digit defeat to Labour.

    Boris didn’t even poll in the 20s! Truss is long gone, Tories poll in 20s because of Sunak’s negatives, the ones you gloss over and try to spin away, is largely the truth if not the whole truth.

    Killer fact: Labour and Lib Dem’s don’t want Sunak changed before the next election.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,583
    Farooq said:

    Nigelb said:

    Farooq said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leo Messi has informed Barcelona that he will not return. ❌

    He will join Inter Miami. 🇺🇸

    https://twitter.com/DeadlineDayLive/status/1666435043940605952

    Beats Saudi Arabia, I guess.

    On the one hand moving to an unliveable climate full of religious nutters and governed by a dangerous extremist who disdains minorities and women.

    (wait for it)

    On the other hand, Saudi Arabia.
    Hands up who'd choose Saudi ...
    I would choose neither, but, if forced, I would live in Saudi Arabia ahead of Florida. No question at all.
    Florida for me. And I live 500km from Saudi.
  • An awful lot of heightism against Sunak.

    However, he's no Churchill, who was also 5ft 6.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    HYUFD said:

    On topic, I've been banging on for a while Rishi Sunak's key moment of vulnerability will be if the Committee of Privileges recommends suspending Boris Johnson for more 10 days.

    Remember there are over 100 Tory MPs prepared to make Boris Johnson PM again, they will try and oust Rishi is he whips the Tories to expel Boris Johnson.

    Maybe but they need over 180 Tory MPs to vote for a VONC to remove Rishi, 100 is nowhere near enough
    Boris Johnson won his vote of confidence and was still ousted within weeks.

    Theresa May won her vote of confidence and was still ousted within six months.

    Margaret Thatcher won her vote of confidence* and was resigned within 48 hours.

    *De facto vote of confidence.

    Once a vote of confidence is triggered it begins an inexorable loss of confidence in the PM.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    Sandpit said:

    Farooq said:

    Nigelb said:

    Farooq said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leo Messi has informed Barcelona that he will not return. ❌

    He will join Inter Miami. 🇺🇸

    https://twitter.com/DeadlineDayLive/status/1666435043940605952

    Beats Saudi Arabia, I guess.

    On the one hand moving to an unliveable climate full of religious nutters and governed by a dangerous extremist who disdains minorities and women.

    (wait for it)

    On the other hand, Saudi Arabia.
    Hands up who'd choose Saudi ...
    I would choose neither, but, if forced, I would live in Saudi Arabia ahead of Florida. No question at all.
    Florida for me. And I live 500km from Saudi.
    I would hate to live in Saudi Arabia, all the other Muslims would hate and resent me as they weren't as pious as me.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,249
    Nigelb said:

    Farooq said:

    Nigelb said:

    Farooq said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leo Messi has informed Barcelona that he will not return. ❌

    He will join Inter Miami. 🇺🇸

    https://twitter.com/DeadlineDayLive/status/1666435043940605952

    Beats Saudi Arabia, I guess.

    On the one hand moving to an unliveable climate full of religious nutters and governed by a dangerous extremist who disdains minorities and women.

    (wait for it)

    On the other hand, Saudi Arabia.
    Hands up who'd choose Saudi ...
    I would choose neither, but, if forced, I would live in Saudi Arabia ahead of Florida. No question at all.
    I'd be cautious about raising your hand, though.
    We’ll give you a hand, for that. Low mileage, one previous owner….
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-65820689

    Michael Sheen wants Welsh actors to play Welsh people, seemingly forgetting that, at its heart, acting is pretending to be someone else.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    Ghedebrav said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-65820689

    Michael Sheen wants Welsh actors to play Welsh people, seemingly forgetting that, at its heart, acting is pretending to be someone else.

    I guess he'll never play any non Welsh roles in the future.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,051

    biggles said:

    OT: No.

    Off topic: Is this Prince Harry trial what all of this type of trial are like? He seems to have no direct evidence of wrong-doing against him. If he wins, the law is an ass. (I don’t doubt the wrong-doing occurred but I see no proof).

    Balance of probabilities though rather than beyond reasonable doubt. Unless someone admits it, where is the direct evidence of wrong-doing coming from?

    Won't be surprised if he wins.
    Yeah but I have always assumed it requires a bit more than “this looked a bit dodge, I’m sure they were at it” even in a civil case. If he wins this I might have a go.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,583
    biggles said:

    OT: No.

    Off topic: Is this Prince Harry trial what all of this type of trial are like? He seems to have no direct evidence of wrong-doing against him. If he wins, the law is an ass. (I don’t doubt the wrong-doing occurred but I see no proof).

    He didn’t appear to understand that he would be cross-examined - and if he did, he did little training for it. Unless he has witnesses with actual evidence, he’s getting a large bill for MGN’s costs.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,583

    Sandpit said:

    Farooq said:

    Nigelb said:

    Farooq said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leo Messi has informed Barcelona that he will not return. ❌

    He will join Inter Miami. 🇺🇸

    https://twitter.com/DeadlineDayLive/status/1666435043940605952

    Beats Saudi Arabia, I guess.

    On the one hand moving to an unliveable climate full of religious nutters and governed by a dangerous extremist who disdains minorities and women.

    (wait for it)

    On the other hand, Saudi Arabia.
    Hands up who'd choose Saudi ...
    I would choose neither, but, if forced, I would live in Saudi Arabia ahead of Florida. No question at all.
    Florida for me. And I live 500km from Saudi.
    I would hate to live in Saudi Arabia, all the other Muslims would hate and resent me as they weren't as pious as me.
    You’re not going for the Hajj in a couple of weeks’ time?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,583
    edited June 2023
    Farooq said:

    Sandpit said:

    Farooq said:

    Nigelb said:

    Farooq said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leo Messi has informed Barcelona that he will not return. ❌

    He will join Inter Miami. 🇺🇸

    https://twitter.com/DeadlineDayLive/status/1666435043940605952

    Beats Saudi Arabia, I guess.

    On the one hand moving to an unliveable climate full of religious nutters and governed by a dangerous extremist who disdains minorities and women.

    (wait for it)

    On the other hand, Saudi Arabia.
    Hands up who'd choose Saudi ...
    I would choose neither, but, if forced, I would live in Saudi Arabia ahead of Florida. No question at all.
    Florida for me. And I live 500km from Saudi.
    No idea where you live, but to my surprise I see that Cyprus is within 500km of Saudi
    I’m in Dubai. Other side of Saudi from Cyprus. Hence the name.

    According to Google Maps, I’m 551km by road from the Saudi border.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    Ghedebrav said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-65820689

    Michael Sheen wants Welsh actors to play Welsh people, seemingly forgetting that, at its heart, acting is pretending to be someone else.

    I guess he'll never play any non Welsh roles in the future.
    The logical conclusion of this approach will mean people can only play (and be played by) themselves; let’s call it the Nicolas Cage model.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812
    It's interesting to be reminded how slowly other test teams score runs. England would probably be near 250 by now, although quite possibly with a couple more wickets down.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,051

    biggles said:

    OT: No.

    Off topic: Is this Prince Harry trial what all of this type of trial are like? He seems to have no direct evidence of wrong-doing against him. If he wins, the law is an ass. (I don’t doubt the wrong-doing occurred but I see no proof).

    Balance of probabilities though rather than beyond reasonable doubt. Unless someone admits it, where is the direct evidence of wrong-doing coming from?

    Won't be surprised if he wins.
    Yeah but I have always assumed it requires a bit more than “they were
    Ghedebrav said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-65820689

    Michael Sheen wants Welsh actors to play Welsh people, seemingly forgetting that, at its heart, acting is pretending to be someone else.

    Hope he never plays any English folk. That would be hypocritical.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    edited June 2023
    DougSeal said:

    Telegraph and Spectator up for sale -

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65835312

    The one time it would actually be good to hear from @Leon.

    I wonder who’ll buy it?

    “Can I just shock you? I think a lot of so-called ‘woke’ commentary makes some very valid points”

    Jess bezos has been rumoured. Not impossible

    People are talking about the Mail group but I reckon that would be disallowed because of competition law

    The key thing is both the Telegraph and the Spec are successful and profitable - and influential (esp the latter) - so I imagine there
    will be plenty of interested parties
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275

    On topic, I've been banging on for a while Rishi Sunak's key moment of vulnerability will be if the Committee of Privileges recommends suspending Boris Johnson for more 10 days.

    Remember there are over 100 Tory MPs prepared to make Boris Johnson PM again, they will try and oust Rishi is he whips the Tories to expel Boris Johnson.

    Will Sunak avoid any vote and be out of the country ?

    I think he’s already said it will be a free vote but if a Tory MP votes against any sanction then I expect the opposition will make sure their constituents know about it !

    I think Johnson will avoid any strong sanctions and be found to have recklessly misled the Commons , I can’t see them finding he deliberately misled the Commons .
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,821

    Carnyx said:

    Bit odd, no consideration of other possibilities such as Ms Truss or Mr Johnson doing a resurrectionist* job on their careers.

    *Not "Burke and Hare". They've already been there, done that.

    Burke and Harebrained, I think you may mean.
    BERK! FEED ME!
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,497
    edited June 2023
    On topic. I agree Rishi, for all his faults, won’t be moved against this side of the GE. This is mostly because Tories are resigned to defeat now, need a fall guy, and the focus is on the succession being about how best to fight back after the election. And I think it’s largely decided the conservatives will return to Thatcherism and economic liberalism to fight back, not Nat-C agenda.

    Nor do Labour and Lib Dem’s want Rishi removed before the election, they can do without the worry of a Black Swan creating some sort of Cleggasm.

    However, where todays Super Poll shows SNP support bleeding not to Labour but to don’t know, the chances are imo SNP may go into general election with different leadership and in a different place than they are now so can get all those don’t knows back, depriving Labour of a dozen or two chickens it looks like they are already counting before they hatch.

    It’s still possible Sunak has to go because a revelation or scandal is just so bad.

    Labour perhaps are in the weakest position here, as so much of their appeal rests on Starmer’s shoulders. If he has a heart attack, or stroke, and Rayner leads Labour into the election, the Tories can finish largest party or even majority from this position.

    In short: SNP benefit in general election from change of leader, and I expect them to do this, Sunak is expendable but is being kept on by a party resigned to defeat as their fall guy, Labour face electoral crash if it loses its current leader.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,051
    edited June 2023
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Telegraph and Spectator up for sale -

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65835312

    The one time it would actually be good to hear from @Leon.

    I wonder who’ll buy it?

    “Can I just shock you? I think a lot of so-called ‘woke’ commentary makes some very valid points”

    Jess bezos has been rumoured. Not impossible

    People are talking about the Mail group but I reckon that would be disallowed because of competition law

    The key thing is both the Telegraph and the Spec are successful and profitable - and influential (esp the latter) - so I imagine there
    will be plenty of interested parties
    Ignoring political/ideological implications, a Telegraph linked up with Amazon could clean up on circulation.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,310
    Anyway - and completely off topic - if anyone wants to hear my talk on The Evolving Landscape of Conduct Risk (no, not my title and my talk will be a damn sight more interesting than the title) & a panel discussion tomorrow in London or via LinkedIn VM me.

    I suppose I'd better go and work out what to say now. Those 30 minutes don't fill themselves .....

    On topic - no. Unless the Tories want to look like even bigger numpties than they do already.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,521

    HYUFD said:

    Of course he won't be, for starters Sunak performs much better than his party overall in polls and is close to Starmer as preferred PM.

    If he squeezes DKs and RefUK voters as today's MRP poll shows he could also get a hung parliament

    A hung parliament yes - but one where you are in opposition.

    Labour failing to get an absolute majority would still have a comfortable working majority as Lab + LD + Green + Alliance + SNP + PC is going to be a lot of seats. There is a broad alignment of parties now out to neuter you. Either you find a way to win an election, or you will be done in.
    Do you not think that that is simply a recipe for another GE within a year? All the more so given Starmer's own party is almost (but not quite) as riven as the Tories.

    The Lib Dems, Greens and SNP will all make demands that Starmer is not able to agree to. How much will he be willing to betray his own party and supporters just to stay in power?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Trump could be a criminal defendant in both Florida and Washington.

    Multiple witnesses subpoenaed in Florida in Trump Mar-a-Lago case
    Involvement of top prosecutor Jay Bratt in the Florida grand jury could suggest questions about Espionage Act violations
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/jun/07/trump-documents-grand-jury-florida-espionage-act
    ...Bratt, who was seen arriving in Miami on Tuesday by this Guardian reporter, has previously appeared for grand jury proceedings in the espionage side of the investigation, as opposed to the obstruction side, which has typically been led by Smith’s other prosecutors or national security trial attorneys.

    A justice department spokesperson declined to comment.

    But the underlying reasons as to why prosecutors in the special counsel’s office impaneled the new grand jury in Florida, and whether it is now the only grand jury active in the case after the Washington grand jury has sat dormant for weeks, remains an open question.

    Prosecutors would most probably prefer to bring charges in Washington, where the judges at the US district court are more familiar with handling national security case – though Florida also has a robust national security section – and the jury pool skews more Democratic.

    The impaneling of grand juries has to do with where prosecutors believe a crime was committed. And the most straightforward reason for the Florida grand jury is that prosecutors have developed evidence of criminal activity at Mar-a-Lago, which is in the southern district of Florida.

    In this investigation, prosecutors considering charges against Trump for retaining national security material may have concluded from the evidence that he was still president when classified documents were moved to Mar-a-Lago, meaning his “unlawful possession” only started in Florida.

    Similarly, if prosecutors have also developed evidence that Trump knew he had retained national security documents after he left office at Mar-a-Lago, for instance by waving them around or showing people, that could present hurdles to charging espionage act violations in Washington.

    The venue for an obstruction of justice charge is more difficult to deduce, meanwhile, because the courts have provided little guidance about how it should be applied under section 1519 of the US criminal code*, which prosecutors listed on the affidavit for Mar-a-Lago search warrant...



    *The Florida case could be under section 793:
    https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/793
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,748
    "At the moment I think he will and gone"

    I didn't understand what that meant.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,900

    HYUFD said:

    Of course he won't be, for starters Sunak performs much better than his party overall in polls and is close to Starmer as preferred PM.

    If he squeezes DKs and RefUK voters as today's MRP poll shows he could also get a hung parliament

    A hung parliament yes - but one where you are in opposition.

    Labour failing to get an absolute majority would still have a comfortable working majority as Lab + LD + Green + Alliance + SNP + PC is going to be a lot of seats. There is a broad alignment of parties now out to neuter you. Either you find a way to win an election, or you will be done in.
    I dispute 'comfortable'. If its a rainbow coalition there will be a price to pay to the minor parties.

    Would be refreshing to see though!
    Not a coalition. If Labour propose batshitted policies then they wouldn't get the votes. But if it is a progressive non-corrupt proposal, especially if they start getting into a consensus about changing the political landscape, then it would be very difficult for other parties to vote against them and bring the corruption party back into office.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,310
    The Tories should not revert to Thatcherism. They need to rethink what Conservatism means for a country facing the challenges of the 2030's and 2040's. Not rehash an old old tune - without even properly understanding it.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,625
    Leon said:

    DougSeal said:

    Telegraph and Spectator up for sale -

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-65835312

    The one time it would actually be good to hear from @Leon.

    I wonder who’ll buy it?

    “Can I just shock you? I think a lot of so-called ‘woke’ commentary makes some very valid points”

    Jess bezos has been rumoured. Not impossible
    Jess Bezos would be a hell of a trans coming out story.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    edited June 2023
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Farooq said:

    Nigelb said:

    Farooq said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leo Messi has informed Barcelona that he will not return. ❌

    He will join Inter Miami. 🇺🇸

    https://twitter.com/DeadlineDayLive/status/1666435043940605952

    Beats Saudi Arabia, I guess.

    On the one hand moving to an unliveable climate full of religious nutters and governed by a dangerous extremist who disdains minorities and women.

    (wait for it)

    On the other hand, Saudi Arabia.
    Hands up who'd choose Saudi ...
    I would choose neither, but, if forced, I would live in Saudi Arabia ahead of Florida. No question at all.
    Florida for me. And I live 500km from Saudi.
    I would hate to live in Saudi Arabia, all the other Muslims would hate and resent me as they weren't as pious as me.
    You’re not going for the Hajj in a couple of weeks’ time?
    God no, too bloody hot, and too bloody crowded.

    I did do the Umrah in 2002, I only went because my parents and grandparents were going and I was worried about them in that heat and the fact my grandmother had mobility issues.

    Absolute bloody shambles, all pilgrims must wear two simple white unhemmed sheets. Not allowed to wear designer stuff, that's when I knew Islam really wasn't for me.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ihram_clothing
  • eekeek Posts: 28,368
    Utterly offtopic but the Turkish Lira has depreciated by 10% in the last 18 hours.

    Yesterday it was 26.6 to £1 now it's 28.96
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,051
    Cyclefree said:

    The Tories should not revert to Thatcherism. They need to rethink what Conservatism means for a country facing the challenges of the 2030's and 2040's. Not rehash an old old tune - without even properly understanding it.

    They will be fine. They were written off from 97-05 too. In the end a charismatic Tory leader will make them whatever they need to be to win in five or ten years, assuming Sunak doesn’t nick it this time.

    They have the advantage of being ideologically flexible about anything other than winning and, for a time, the EU (but that’s gone now).
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Farooq said:

    Nigelb said:

    Farooq said:

    Nigelb said:

    Leo Messi has informed Barcelona that he will not return. ❌

    He will join Inter Miami. 🇺🇸

    https://twitter.com/DeadlineDayLive/status/1666435043940605952

    Beats Saudi Arabia, I guess.

    On the one hand moving to an unliveable climate full of religious nutters and governed by a dangerous extremist who disdains minorities and women.

    (wait for it)

    On the other hand, Saudi Arabia.
    Hands up who'd choose Saudi ...
    I would choose neither, but, if forced, I would live in Saudi Arabia ahead of Florida. No question at all.
    Florida for me. And I live 500km from Saudi.
    I would hate to live in Saudi Arabia, all the other Muslims would hate and resent me as they weren't as pious as me.
    You’re not going for the Hajj in a couple of weeks’ time?
    Everyone I know who has been to Saudi Arabia was glad to come home/go elsewhere. And that includes a couple of Muslims.
    Bit like Catholics going on pilgrimage to Rome. Glad to come home!
This discussion has been closed.