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Could Rishi be replaced before the election? – politicalbetting.com

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  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,170
    HYUFD said:

    'If the Reform Party decided to stand aside in Conservative marginals, as their predecessor the Brexit Party did in 2019, Labour would win 401 seats to the Conservatives’s 202 — a majority of 152.

    In a scenario where greater weighting is given to the levels of education of voters who are currently undecided, Labour would win 370 seats to the Conservatives’s 232 — giving Starmer a majority of 90.

    If both of those factors were combined to create a worst-case scenario for Labour, Starmer would win 316 seats and Sunak would have 286, leaving Labour just short of a majority.'
    But realistically- how likely is it that both of those factors will happen? It's basically turning the Conservative-favourable parameters of the model up to 11, and that's still not enough to keep Starmer out of Downing Street.

    If it's a future event, it's possible, of course... but it looks pretty improbable.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534
    edited June 2023

    But realistically- how likely is it that both of those factors will happen? It's basically turning the Conservative-favourable parameters of the model up to 11, and that's still not enough to keep Starmer out of Downing Street.

    If it's a future event, it's possible, of course... but it looks pretty improbable.
    The hung parliament of 2017 was also improbable when May had huge leads 3 months before of course. As was the hung parliament of 2010 when Cameron had huge leads in 2009 and as was the Tory majority of 2015 when Labour was ahead in most polls in 2012 and 2013
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,414
    edited June 2023
    Should I be backing or laying the Spanners tonight?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,502

    Should I be backing or laying the Spanners tonight?

    They came good in Alkmaar, but the Italians have got them on the run tonight:

    https://twitter.com/FBAwayDays/status/1666466329128206336
  • eekeek Posts: 29,534
    Scott_xP said:

    Sir Keir Starmer is on course to win more seats than Sir Tony Blair’s landslide victory, according to the first big constituency polling conducted under the new boundaries.

    The best-case scenario for Rishi Sunak is that the Conservatives are the second party in a hung parliament, the 10,140-person MRP poll conducted by Focaldata for Best for Britain suggests. The model used to translate the polling into seats uses the new boundaries that will shortly be approved for the next general election.

    The poll recorded Labour’s national support at 35 per cent, 12 points ahead of the Conservatives on 23 per cent. This would secure Labour 470 seats to the Conservatives’ 129, a 290-seat majority.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/keir-starmer-to-beat-blair-landslide-in-general-election-poll-finds-ks26rxjng

    That feels wrong for a lot of reasons but it opens up a useful question. At what percentage does the Tory party start to suddenly lose a lot of seats - is it 28%,25%, 23%....
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,825

    One for @HYUFD - my Uni has just placed 5th in the Complete University Guide for 2024, with all subjects in the top 10 nationally.

    https://thecompleteuniversityguide.co.uk/universities/university-of-bath

    Not in the Russell Group.

    How is this possible? I thought the Russell group was the best????

    Don't know. My unis come 1st and 8th. Subjects 1st and 4th. I'll settle for that. Is St Andrew's still not in Russell Group?

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,135
    Australia v India

    Australia 300 for 3

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/scorecard/ECKE1000130
  • WestieWestie Posts: 426
    From old thread:
    Westie said:

    Of the countries on that map, probably Latvia.
    Were there any good suggestions for countries with the largest % of their home-born citizens living abroad? I propose Guyana, with a proportion said to be ~60%.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222
    Scott_xP said:

    Sir Keir Starmer is on course to win more seats than Sir Tony Blair’s landslide victory, according to the first big constituency polling conducted under the new boundaries.

    The best-case scenario for Rishi Sunak is that the Conservatives are the second party in a hung parliament, the 10,140-person MRP poll conducted by Focaldata for Best for Britain suggests. The model used to translate the polling into seats uses the new boundaries that will shortly be approved for the next general election.

    The poll recorded Labour’s national support at 35 per cent, 12 points ahead of the Conservatives on 23 per cent. This would secure Labour 470 seats to the Conservatives’ 129, a 290-seat majority.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/keir-starmer-to-beat-blair-landslide-in-general-election-poll-finds-ks26rxjng

    But there won't be an election next week.

    The Tories with another 15 months of sensible, popular polices - versus SKS closing down the North Sea, etc. - and both parties will be close together in the upper 30's. It's what previous Tory voters are wanting to see before they re-engage. If they deliver, the Tory vote will rise significantly.
  • Also enthusiastically pro European in government, campaigned for Remain.
    And recognised the dangers posed by climate change. In 1989 - 34 years ago!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,913
    edited June 2023
    RedfieldWilton's Scottish polling tonight is very interesting

    Yousaf seems to have stabilised the SNP and labour not doing as well as expected

    Indeed it seems the conservatives in Scotland are staging a small recovery

    I would venture to suggest labour's hopes of good gains at GE24 will depend almost entirely on the outcome of the police investigations

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1666476416202833921?t=5iT_Ou0l8nnA-gXPkqPLHg&s=19
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534
    edited June 2023
    algarkirk said:

    Don't know. My unis come 1st and 8th. Subjects 1st and 4th. I'll settle for that. Is St Andrew's still not in Russell Group?

    No, it was in the 1994 group of smaller research universities, the Russell Group's main rival, however that dissolved in 2013.

    Bath, UEA, Essex, Reading, Lancaster and Leicester, Royal Holloway, SOAS and Sussex were amongst universities also in the 1994 group

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_Group
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534

    RedfieldWilton's Scottish polling tonight is very interesting

    Yousaf seems to have stabilised the SNP and labour not doing as well as expected

    Indeed it seems the conservatives in Scotland are staging a small recovery

    I would venture to suggest labour's hopes of good gains at GE24 will depend almost entirely on the outcome of the police investigations

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1666476416202833921?t=5iT_Ou0l8nnA-gXPkqPLHg&s=19

    SNP still down 8% on 2019 even on that poll
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,869
    HYUFD said:

    The hung parliament of 2017 was also improbable when May had huge leads 3 months before of course. As was the hung parliament of 2010 when Cameron had huge leads in 2009 and as was the Tory majority of 2015 when Labour was ahead in most polls in 2012 and 2013
    Your point being what????

    That estimates of probability aren't relevant to political betting? Wishful thinking is better?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,342
    edited June 2023
    eek said:

    That feels wrong for a lot of reasons but it opens up a useful question. At what percentage does the Tory party start to suddenly lose a lot of seats - is it 28%,25%, 23%....
    The MRP poll gives 44/29, excluding don’t knows. I don’t believe Labour would win 470 seats on those figures.

    32% is roughly where the Conservatives have to get to, to avoid a rout.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,825
    edited June 2023
    Scott_xP said:

    Sir Keir Starmer is on course to win more seats than Sir Tony Blair’s landslide victory, according to the first big constituency polling conducted under the new boundaries.

    The best-case scenario for Rishi Sunak is that the Conservatives are the second party in a hung parliament, the 10,140-person MRP poll conducted by Focaldata for Best for Britain suggests. The model used to translate the polling into seats uses the new boundaries that will shortly be approved for the next general election.

    The poll recorded Labour’s national support at 35 per cent, 12 points ahead of the Conservatives on 23 per cent. This would secure Labour 470 seats to the Conservatives’ 129, a 290-seat majority.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/keir-starmer-to-beat-blair-landslide-in-general-election-poll-finds-ks26rxjng

    Something odd is going on. Peter Kellner in January opined that Labour need a 10-13 % point lead to get a majority at all. The SNP situation will have changed that a bit, but not mightily.

    The difference of outcomes is over 100 seats on similar Labour lead figures.

    Betting opportunities? Can anyone make sense of this?


    https://kellnerpolitics.com/2023/01/27/801/


  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,975
    algarkirk said:

    Something odd is going on. Peter Kellner in January opined that Labour need a 10-13 % point lead to get a majority at all. The SNP situation will have changed that a bit, but not mightily.

    The difference of outcomes is over 100 seats on similar Labour lead figures.

    Betting opportunities? Can anyone make sense of this?


    https://kellnerpolitics.com/2023/01/27/801/


    You have to decide what's at issue* here
    Spoiler
    what's a tissue

  • WestieWestie Posts: 426
    edited June 2023
    HYUFD said:

    No, it was in the 1994 group of smaller research universities, the Russell Group's main rival, however that dissolved in 2013.

    Bath, UEA, Essex, Reading, Lancaster and Leicester, Royal Holloway, SOAS and Sussex were amongst universities also in the 1994 group

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_Group
    St Andrews ranks 1st for student satisfaction:

    https://www.thecompleteuniversityguide.co.uk/league-tables/rankings?sortby=student-satisfaction

    Oxford and Cambridge don't take get ranked for that, though, unlike the other 128 universities on the list. I wonder how their overall scores are calculated, given that they didn't take part in one of the races. Man up and play all the games if you want to be on the scoreboard!

    Basically the LSE won, followed by St Andrews, Bath, and Imperial.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449

    But there won't be an election next week.

    The Tories with another 15 months of sensible, popular polices - versus SKS closing down the North Sea, etc. - and both parties will be close together in the upper 30's. It's what previous Tory voters are wanting to see before they re-engage. If they deliver, the Tory vote will rise significantly.
    LOL, this post needs saving for posterity. I’d love to know what these “sensible” policies are
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,641
    algarkirk said:

    Something odd is going on. Peter Kellner in January opined that Labour need a 10-13 % point lead to get a majority at all. The SNP situation will have changed that a bit, but not mightily.

    The difference of outcomes is over 100 seats on similar Labour lead figures.

    Betting opportunities? Can anyone make sense of this?


    https://kellnerpolitics.com/2023/01/27/801/


    If LAB are 5% ahead they should get a small overall majority given a relatively stronger performance in Scotland compared with a national swing.
  • WestieWestie Posts: 426
    Westie said:

    St Andrews ranks 1st for student satisfaction:

    https://www.thecompleteuniversityguide.co.uk/league-tables/rankings?sortby=student-satisfaction

    Oxford and Cambridge don't take get ranked for that, though, unlike the other 128 universities on the list. I wonder how their overall scores are calculated, given that they didn't take part in one of the races. Man up and play all the games if you want to be on the scoreboard!

    Basically the LSE won, followed by St Andrews, Bath, and Imperial.
    SOAS probably would have won, but they were disqualified for drugs.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,900
    Carnyx said:

    Never mind the Beakers, what about the Neandertalers?
    Send them back to Neandertal.
    I'm sure the Home Sec would oblige if she could work out how.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534
    edited June 2023
    Westie said:

    St Andrews ranks 1st for student satisfaction:

    https://www.thecompleteuniversityguide.co.uk/league-tables/rankings?sortby=student-satisfaction

    Oxford and Cambridge don't take get ranked for that, though, unlike the other 128 universities on the list. I wonder how their overall scores are calculated, given that they didn't take part in one of the races. Man up and play all the games if you want to be on the scoreboard!

    Basically the LSE won, followed by St Andrews, Bath, and Imperial.
    St Andrews also has the heir to the throne (and the former Scottish FM and current Alba leader), even if Cambridge has the current King (with Aberystwyth which is second for student satisfaction), Oxford the current PM and also the likely next PM (albeit so does Leeds)
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,975
    Nigelb said:

    Send them back to Neandertal.
    I'm sure the Home Sec would oblige if she could work out how.
    Easy, it's a short hop from Düsseldorf.

  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    edited June 2023
    HYUFD said:

    'If the Reform Party decided to stand aside in Conservative marginals, as their predecessor the Brexit Party did in 2019, Labour would win 401 seats to the Conservatives’s 202 — a majority of 152.

    In a scenario where greater weighting is given to the levels of education of voters who are currently undecided, Labour would win 370 seats to the Conservatives’s 232 — giving Starmer a majority of 90.

    If both of those factors were combined to create a worst-case scenario for Labour, Starmer would win 316 seats and Sunak would have 286, leaving Labour just short of a majority.'
    It's bizarre that anyone should model a scenario where Reform stand down anywhere in favour of the Conservatives this time around. They only did so last time to deliver Brexit, and this time their supporters appear to be fuming at Conservative betrayal on Brexit, immigration, HS2 etc etc. They are in no mood to back down and have no need to. The best you could hope for is that they might be short of the odd candidate in a few seats.

    Last time even with Brexit at stake where they did stand in non-Conservative held seats they were averaging around 4%, so seemed immune to being squeezed. This time their candidates are likely to cause a particularly sharp swing in those seats which the Conservatives are relying on holding in order to deny the Conservatives a majority - that is seats that already had a Conservative MP by 2019, as opposed to the Red Wall seats which went Conservative in 2019 and seem generally to be lower hanging fruit for Labour.

    A more realistic model would be to model a repeat of what has happened repeatedly at recent general elections, namely that the Green Party vote gets badly squeezed as polling day approaches, particularly in marginal seats. And throw in a heathy dose of tactical voting depending on whether Labour or the Lib Dems are the closer challenger.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,127

    RedfieldWilton's Scottish polling tonight is very interesting

    Yousaf seems to have stabilised the SNP and labour not doing as well as expected

    Indeed it seems the conservatives in Scotland are staging a small recovery

    I would venture to suggest labour's hopes of good gains at GE24 will depend almost entirely on the outcome of the police investigations

    https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1666476416202833921?t=5iT_Ou0l8nnA-gXPkqPLHg&s=19

    It’s not a subsample so hardly worth noting, let alone worthy of a PB thread all of its own.

    Definite signs of Humza not fucking up, mind.



    SKS otoh..



  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,918
    On topic. I don't think Rishi Sunak will be replaced before the next election.
    Simply because he has the power to threaten to call an election if anyone threatens him with the sack.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295
    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/
  • Callum Jones at the polling report UK website has also questioned today's MRP.

    https://pollingreport.uk/articles/why-labours-lead-probably-wont-translate-to-a-470-seat-landslide

    Best for Britain have just released a new MRP poll, leading with the projection that Labour would be sat on 470 seats - which would amount to a majority of 290. The figure came about on a Labour vote share lead of 12%, with the party on 35% to the Conservatives' 23%. The fact that such a large parliamentary win comes about from a more modest vote lead flies in the face of some commentary - which suggested a double-digit lead could be the minimum requirement for a majority government. However, it's worth looking closer at their seat projections before Keir Starmer can start measuring up his Downing Street desk.

    Even a cursory glance at the headline figures should give cause for scepticism. The model predicts the Liberal Democrats will win just five seats, which seems counter-intuitive even on a drop in vote share. Meanwhile, the first-place finisher in two separate seats was... "don't know".
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534
    edited June 2023

    It’s not a subsample so hardly worth noting, let alone worthy of a PB thread all of its own.

    Definite signs of Humza not fucking up, mind.



    SKS otoh..



    If Yousaf only got 36% for the SNP in 2026 however that would almost certainly see a Unionist majority even if he stayed FM. Where the SCons went would be crucial, Ross would decide effectively whether Yousaf stayed FM or Sarwar replaced him
  • mickydroymickydroy Posts: 316

    LOL, this post needs saving for posterity. I’d love to know what these “sensible” policies are
    We are still over a year away from the next election, time for the Tory stormtroopers in the media, including the garbage that GB news puts out, to fine tune their message, make a character assassination on Starmer, underestimate the pro Tory forces at your peril, I still think a hung parliament is by far the most likely outcome, but considering the car crash that Starmer took over at Labour, is no mean achievement
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534
    edited June 2023

    It's bizarre that anyone should model a scenario where Reform stand down anywhere in favour of the Conservatives this time around. They only did so last time to deliver Brexit, and this time their supporters appear to be fuming at Conservative betrayal on Brexit, immigration, HS2 etc etc. They are in no mood to back down and have no need to. The best you could hope for is that they might be short of the odd candidate in a few seats.

    Last time even with Brexit at stake where they did stand in non-Conservative held seats they were averaging around 4%, so seemed immune to being squeezed. This time their candidates are likely to cause a particularly sharp swing in those seats which the Conservatives are relying on holding in order to deny the Conservatives a majority - that is seats that already had a Conservative MP by 2019, as opposed to the Red Wall seats which went Conservative in 2019 and seem generally to be lower hanging fruit for Labour.

    A more realistic model would be to model a repeat of what has happened repeatedly at recent general elections, namely that the Green Party vote gets badly squeezed as polling day approaches, particularly in marginal seats. And throw in a heathy dose of tactical voting depending on whether Labour or the Lib Dems are the closer challenger.
    You are right, Tice confirmed this afternoon RefUK will stand everywhere in the UK apart from NI (where presumably their DUP allies will do the job). Nothing to stop Sunak squeezing them back to 2019 levels though
    https://twitter.com/TiceRichard/status/1666401590918496257?s=20
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,135
    algarkirk said:

    Something odd is going on. Peter Kellner in January opined that Labour need a 10-13 % point lead to get a majority at all. The SNP situation will have changed that a bit, but not mightily.

    The difference of outcomes is over 100 seats on similar Labour lead figures.

    Betting opportunities? Can anyone make sense of this?


    https://kellnerpolitics.com/2023/01/27/801/


    What's odd about it? Labour increasingly piles up votes in safe seats.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222

    It’s not a subsample so hardly worth noting, let alone worthy of a PB thread all of its own.

    Definite signs of Humza not fucking up, mind.



    SKS otoh..



    Definite sign of "close the North Sea" SKS fucking up in Scotland.

    Who the hell is advising him???
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,913

    It’s not a subsample so hardly worth noting, let alone worthy of a PB thread all of its own.

    Definite signs of Humza not fucking up, mind.



    SKS otoh..



    The remarkable feature of that poll is how Sarwar is flat lining when you would expect him to be closing the gap
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,651
    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    Funny. Six weeks ago Hamish said it was all over, Russia had lost, we needed to focus on Taiwan

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/26/vladimir-putin-already-lost-ukraine-chinas-war-taiwan/

    Now he’s saying that we need to focus on an impending nuclear war? Which is it?
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Has anyone yet commented on the recent R&W Blue Wall poll?

    Lab 34 (+13), Con 30 (-20), LD 26 (-1), Green 5 (+4), Reform 5 (+5). Changes v GE 2019.

    Lowest Con vote share since January, highest LD vote share yet (though still behind GE 2019 levels).


    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-blue-wall-voting-intention-4-june-2023/

  • WestieWestie Posts: 426
    edited June 2023
    Leon said:

    File under…


    Brace?


    “We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
    The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...

    Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295
    It is conceivable we will achieve Artificial General Intelligence, get a confirmed visit from aliens, and enjoy the outbreak of nuclear war - all in the same week. Probably august?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,876
    edited June 2023
    tlg86 said:

    What's the issue? I can see why Wasps went bust (gambled on filling a big venue in a new location), but why have Irish gone under?
    They can't compete with France.
    The squad sizes needed are way too large with the numbers of subs and specialist positions. (Wasps had 61 full time professional players at one point, most RL clubs have about 35).
    Salary levels and expectations are too high (many public school educated, unlike soccer or RL), for the crowds which turn up.
    If you're getting 8k crowds in Castleford you can pay young fringe players minimum wage.
    You can't in West London.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534

    Definite sign of "close the North Sea" SKS fucking up in Scotland.

    Who the hell is advising him???
    I assume a Londoner. The 'close the North Sea' and stop extracting oil policy most popular in London but least popular in Scotland
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/consumer/survey-results/daily/2023/05/30/adad6/1
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534

    Has anyone yet commented on the recent R&W Blue Wall poll?

    Lab 34 (+13), Con 30 (-20), LD 26 (-1), Green 5 (+4), Reform 5 (+5). Changes v GE 2019.

    Lowest Con vote share since January, highest LD vote share yet (though still behind GE 2019 levels).


    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-blue-wall-voting-intention-4-june-2023/

    Blue wall voters still prefer Sunak as PM though, 39% to 35% for Starmer
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,127

    The remarkable feature of that poll is how Sarwar is flat lining when you would expect him to be closing the gap
    It should always be remembered that Sarwar was the man beaten by Richard Leonard.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295
    DougSeal said:

    Funny. Six weeks ago Hamish said it was all over, Russia had lost, we needed to focus on Taiwan

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/26/vladimir-putin-already-lost-ukraine-chinas-war-taiwan/

    Now he’s saying that we need to focus on an impending nuclear war? Which is it?
    I’ve no idea. He has a ridiculous name

    However I think his point here is valid. If Putin blew the dam - and the evidence points that way - it suggests he is prepared to keep escalating - and there aren’t many further steps he can take before he reaches the nuclear level

    That doesn’t mean a bomb. Could be an “accident” at ZPP
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,975

    The remarkable feature of that poll is how Sarwar is flat lining when you would expect him to be closing the gap
    Looks like there are just three datapoints. But Yousaf's slight decline has gone to don't knows

  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,170
    Leon said:

    It is conceivable we will achieve Artificial General Intelligence, get a confirmed visit from aliens, and enjoy the outbreak of nuclear war - all in the same week. Probably august?

    Excellent example of why the order of events is important.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534

    The remarkable feature of that poll is how Sarwar is flat lining when you would expect him to be closing the gap
    No also leads 50% to 43% for Yes in a hypothetical indyref2 poll
    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/scottish-independence-referendum-westminster-voting-intention-3-5-june-2023/
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222

    LOL, this post needs saving for posterity. I’d love to know what these “sensible” policies are
    Please do save. You'll see these "sensible" policies outlined - at length - in the Autumn statement.

    Labour won't know what's hit them....
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,975
    Leon said:

    It is conceivable we will achieve Artificial General Intelligence, get a confirmed visit from aliens, and enjoy the outbreak of nuclear war - all in the same week. Probably august?

    Nah, it's a slow news month

  • WestieWestie Posts: 426
    edited June 2023
    Farooq said:

    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    Did I blame Zelensky for cutting the water supply to Crimea in 2014?
    Leon said:

    I’ve no idea. He has a ridiculous name

    However I think his point here is valid. If Putin blew the dam - and the evidence points that way - it suggests he is prepared to keep escalating - and there aren’t many further steps he can take before he reaches the nuclear level

    That doesn’t mean a bomb. Could be an “accident” at ZPP
    The prime military significance of the dam event may well turn out to be ZPP-related.

    You say "if Putin blew the dam", but a similar conclusion follows from "if Zelensky blew the dam".

    It could be that both of these f*cking nutters probably with very short penises are pushing the world in the same direction.

    (Yes I have started drinking again under Armageddo-stress after many years of quiet abstention.)
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,273
    I think he will still be there for the next election, realistically i think the Conservative party knows the next election is lost and a period of opposition is in store. If you are a contender for the leadership of the party with your seat safe, might as well try your chances of bouncing back in opposition.

    Much like Labour in 2010, they have been in government for too long and there is a real appetite for a change now.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,295
    Starmer’s decline in Scotland is a glimpse of how Wokeness/greenery could destroy him after just one term, and maybe prevent him getting a majority


    His party is insanely woke and green and will be quite unpopular with many people for that reason. He can ride an anti Tory tide for a while but then the voters will sense the lunacy of Labour on everything from trans to net zero

    Big problems ahead
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,975
    Putin is emulating his own apocryphal tale of the staircase rat
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,641
    Leon said:

    Starmer’s decline in Scotland is a glimpse of how Wokeness/greenery could destroy him after just one term, and maybe prevent him getting a majority


    His party is insanely woke and green and will be quite unpopular with many people for that reason. He can ride an anti Tory tide for a while but then the voters will sense the lunacy of Labour on everything from trans to net zero

    Big problems ahead

    Maybe LD overall majority??
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,836
    Farooq said:

    Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
    And closing a canal is not blowing up a dam.

    Blowing up dams is specifically a Bad Action in International law.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,534
    edited June 2023
    Leon said:

    Starmer’s decline in Scotland is a glimpse of how Wokeness/greenery could destroy him after just one term, and maybe prevent him getting a majority


    His party is insanely woke and green and will be quite unpopular with many people for that reason. He can ride an anti Tory tide for a while but then the voters will sense the lunacy of Labour on everything from trans to net zero

    Big problems ahead

    Yes it was noticeable last year in particular in the local elections while Starmer Labour gained Westminster and Barnet their gains in the redwall were less than impressive. Even this year in the locals the Tories held areas like Dartford, Basildon, Dudley and Walsall and Harlow Blair won in 1997 and it was the LDs who made the biggest gains from the Tories in the South not Labour
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,975

    And closing a canal is not blowing up a dam.

    Blowing up dams is specifically a Bad Action in International law.
    It's a damp version of scorched earth

  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,651
    Leon said:

    Starmer’s decline in Scotland is a glimpse of how Wokeness/greenery could destroy him after just one term, and maybe prevent him getting a majority


    His party is insanely woke and green and will be quite unpopular with many people for that reason. He can ride an anti Tory tide for a while but then the voters will sense the lunacy of Labour on everything from trans to net zero

    Big problems ahead

    Not half as problematic as the nuclear war you were predicting a few minutes ago. I’ll take Labour lunacy if you’re offering a choice.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,534

    Please do save. You'll see these "sensible" policies outlined - at length - in the Autumn statement.

    Labour won't know what's hit them....
    What exactly are the Tories going to do - cut tax rates to pretend people are better off as they get £20 more in their pocket.

    If that's the best Rishi can offer he best go for a March election before people see the reality in their April Pay packet.
  • WestieWestie Posts: 426
    edited June 2023
    Leon said:

    Starmer’s decline in Scotland is a glimpse of how Wokeness/greenery could destroy him after just one term, and maybe prevent him getting a majority


    His party is insanely woke and green and will be quite unpopular with many people for that reason. He can ride an anti Tory tide for a while but then the voters will sense the lunacy of Labour on everything from trans to net zero

    Big problems ahead

    How to win the election, or if not the next one then the one after: declare that despite all the BS there are only two genders. D Cummings reckons a new "Startup" party may have to do this against both of the major parties. As a card-carrying member of the loony left, I'm peeved to see how utterly spooked the left has been in recent years. Both the eco tossery and the trans idiocy make them look totally and utterly unappetising. Fortunately some sigma types remain active and of sound mind. But we are few.

    Greenism's origins are not exactly on the left... It's a total spook-up to act as if they are.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222

    Maybe LD overall majority??
    You are Jo Swinson and I claim....
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,342
    edited June 2023

    And closing a canal is not blowing up a dam.

    Blowing up dams is specifically a Bad Action in International law.
    What makes the destruction of the dam immoral, and probably unlawful, is that Russia is already the aggressor, and is now causing further harm to its victim.

    Blowing up a dam to slow an invading army would not be unlawful. Nor would it be unlawful for Ukraine to do so, if it gave them some strategic advantage, which was proportionate to the harm caused.
  • WestieWestie Posts: 426

    And closing a canal is not blowing up a dam.

    Blowing up dams is specifically a Bad Action in International law.
    Massively restricting the water supply to a civilian population? No problem then?
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    HYUFD said:

    So were Exeter and Manchester and Birmingham once colleges, they were never polys either
    Bradford and Salford too.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,744

    Please do save. You'll see these "sensible" policies outlined - at length - in the Autumn statement.

    Labour won't know what's hit them....
    Lee Anderson, by the looks of him.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    Excellent example of why the order of events is important.
    Gonna stick my neck out and say that this will not happen in August.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,580
    Ghedebrav said:

    Gonna stick my neck out and say that this will not happen in August.
    Hope not. I have a holiday booked.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,836
    Westie said:

    Massively restricting the water supply to a civilian population? No problem then?
    It’s not a war crime. Otherwise just about everyone by, to, for, at or near the Jordan Valley would be in The Hague, for example.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,017
    eek said:

    What exactly are the Tories going to do - cut tax rates to pretend people are better off as they get £20 more in their pocket.

    If that's the best Rishi can offer he best go for a March election before people see the reality in their April Pay packet.
    Generally Tory policy, when they are forced to actually do something rather than talk about doing it, is to do whatever Labour proposed three months earlier and the Tories claimed would be at least one of harmful or impossible. See energy windfall taxes, energy price cap, school lunches, various covid restrictions, visas for lorry drivers etc.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,156
    edited June 2023
    Leon said:

    Starmer’s decline in Scotland is a glimpse of how Wokeness/greenery could destroy him after just one term, and maybe prevent him getting a majority


    His party is insanely woke and green and will be quite unpopular with many people for that reason. He can ride an anti Tory tide for a while but then the voters will sense the lunacy of Labour on everything from trans to net zero

    Big problems ahead

    Starmer has declined in Scotland due to 'wokeness/greenery', and the not-at-all-woke-and-green SNP have increased as a result. Right.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,342
    Westie said:

    Massively restricting the water supply to a civilian population? No problem then?
    It would be asking a lot to expect Ukraine to supply water to people who have unlawfully occupied their territory.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,934

    Hope not. I have a holiday booked.
    I'm even more concerned. My holiday is not until September.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,156
    DavidL said:

    I'm even more concerned. My holiday is not until September.
    Getting my holiday in at the end of June, before the end of the world.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,170
    edited June 2023
    DavidL said:

    I'm even more concerned. My holiday is not until September.
    More importantly, when do OGH and TSE have their holidays booked?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,090
    No.
  • WestieWestie Posts: 426
    edited June 2023
    Sean_F said:

    What makes the destruction of the dam immoral, and probably unlawful, is that Russia is already the aggressor, and is now causing further harm to its victim.

    Blowing up a dam to slow an invading army would not be unlawful. Nor would it be unlawful for Ukraine to do so, if it gave them some strategic advantage, which was proportionate to the harm caused.
    Unless you can point to legal backup in black and white, I'm calling BS, Surely the whole point of humanitarian law as it applies in war is that all sides must recognise the rights of all civilians (and service personnel prisoners for that matter).
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,156

    And closing a canal is not blowing up a dam.

    Blowing up dams is specifically a Bad Action in International law.
    They didn't mention that in the film: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Dam_Busters_(film)
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,656
    Westie said:

    Did I blame Zelensky for cutting the water supply to Crimea in 2014? The prime military significance of the dam event may well turn out to be ZPP-related.

    You say "if Putin blew the dam", but a similar conclusion follows from "if Zelensky blew the dam".

    It could be that both of these f*cking nutters probably with very short penises are pushing the world in the same direction.

    (Yes I have started drinking again under Armageddo-stress after many years of quiet abstention.)
    On the bright side a nuclear war will put lots of dust in the atmosphere and counteract the warming effect
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,414


    More importantly, when do OGH and TSE have their holidays booked?
    I have a holiday booked from June 23rd to July 11th.

    And August 3rd through to August 11th.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,384

    Please do save. You'll see these "sensible" policies outlined - at length - in the Autumn statement.

    Labour won't know what's hit them....
    More's the point - why has it taken you Conservatives 13 years to come up with some "sensible" and "popular" policies?

    Even the average dinosaur had a more rapid and coherent thought process.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,836

    They didn't mention that in the film: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Dam_Busters_(film)
    1977 - https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/customary-ihl/v2/rule42

    Was somewhat after WWII
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,934

    It’s not a war crime. Otherwise just about everyone by, to, for, at or near the Jordan Valley would be in The Hague, for example.
    Attacks on dams are war crimes, as explicitly noted in Article 56 of Protocol I and Article 15 of Protocol II of the 1977 Protocols to the Geneva Conventions.

    https://time.com/6285314/ukraine-dam-destruction-water-war-essay/
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,222
    BTW, it is being reported that Harry has a hotel suite in LA, where he has been seen spending a lot of time....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,481
    edited June 2023
    Westie said:

    We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...
    Turning off the canal didn't result in anybody drowning and didn't cause any damage to property.

    Most of the water supply was used for industry and agriculture.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,836
    Westie said:

    Unless you can point to legal backup in black and white, I'm calling BS, Surely the whole point of humanitarian law as it applies in war is that all sides must recognise the rights of all civilians (and service personnel prisoners for that matter).
    https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/customary-ihl/v2/rule42

    Is quite clear - no blowing up dams. Formally Considered Naughty in International Law.

    Signed by the USSR and accepted by Russia and Ukraine as the successor states.

    There is nothing similar about reducing water supplies to enemy held territory.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,934
    Farooq said:

    How dare you suggest we hold the UK to the same standards we hold others to.
    The matter was less clear cut until 1977. The historic position was that power sources were legitimate military targets because they directly impacted on the capacity of the combatant to wage war. That was the justification at the time, that these dams were a major source of electrical power.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,384
    HYUFD said:

    Yes it was noticeable last year in particular in the local elections while Starmer Labour gained Westminster and Barnet their gains in the redwall were less than impressive. Even this year in the locals the Tories held areas like Dartford, Basildon, Dudley and Walsall and Harlow Blair won in 1997 and it was the LDs who made the biggest gains from the Tories in the South not Labour
    I said on Monday applying UNS to poll numbers was unwise but the fact remains however you praise the performance did in Dartford, Harlow and Basildon, you also need to explain the loss of Bracknell Forest, Amber Valley and East Staffordshire to name but three.

    Labour did very well in some areas but not in others - I agree that's a big difference to the mid-90s when Labour was doing well everywhere but the fact remains small islands of not-quite-as-bad Conservative performance shouldn't obscure the fact the Party lost more than 1000 seats (and some were predicting losses of 250 seats at most in the days immediately prior to the local elections).
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,836
    Farooq said:

    How dare you suggest we hold the UK to the same standards we hold others to.
    The law changed in 1977 - 30 years after Chastise.

    The reason behind the change is of interest. It was sparked by what the Israelis told the Egyptians. That if Egypt *participated* in a war that defeated Israel, as part of the Sampson Option, Israel would nuke the Aswan Dam. Which would annihilate Egypt.

    This was a major reason that Egypt broke ranks and made peace with Israel - they had achieved MAD….
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,836
    DavidL said:

    Attacks on dams are war crimes, as explicitly noted in Article 56 of Protocol I and Article 15 of Protocol II of the 1977 Protocols to the Geneva Conventions.

    https://time.com/6285314/ukraine-dam-destruction-water-war-essay/
    Indeed - https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/customary-ihl/v2/rule42 is rather clear, for a law.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,481

    Indeed - https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/en/customary-ihl/v2/rule42 is rather clear, for a law.
    These rules would all go out of the window if we ever had a true WW3 scenario.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,934

    BTW, it is being reported that Harry has a hotel suite in LA, where he has been seen spending a lot of time....

    Have they got that off his phone?
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited June 2023
    Gotta love Brummies;

    https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/woman-accused-pretending-birmingham-man-27075210

    ‘with his hood up?’

    ‘yeah’

    ‘bit strange’
  • WestieWestie Posts: 426
    edited June 2023

    The law changed in 1977 - 30 years after Chastise.

    The reason behind the change is of interest. It was sparked by what the Israelis told the Egyptians. That if Egypt *participated* in a war that defeated Israel, as part of the Sampson Option, Israel would nuke the Aswan Dam. Which would annihilate Egypt.

    This was a major reason that Egypt broke ranks and made peace with Israel - they had achieved MAD….
    Nuking the Aswan dam was later threatened, or raised as an option depending on your POV, by Avigdor Lieberman. What is it with nukes and dams? Can't a big dam be busted conventionally nowadays? This is part of the Ukrainian position right now: "It can't have been us because it's impossible to do it (conventionally) from the outside, and only you were on the inside".

    At the moment I've an open mind on which side benefits most from the dam event, and suspect its purpose irrespective of the identity of the perp is escalation.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,342
    Westie said:

    Unless you can point to legal backup in black and white, I'm calling BS, Surely the whole point of humanitarian law as it applies in war is that all sides must recognise the rights of all civilians (and service personnel prisoners for that matter).
    The overriding principle, in terms of destroying a target, in circumstances where civilians may be harmed as a result, is whether that is a proportionate means of furthering a legitimate aim.

    Russia has no legitimate aim in Ukraine. Ukraine has, namely self-defence.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,836
    DavidL said:

    Have they got that off his phone?
    It will be hotel staff or management - unless he is using the public areas.

    Years back I was a member of a private club in London which hosted many A listers over the years. Madonna rented a whole floor of rooms upstairs for years. The staff were quite carefully selected, paid and treated so that they wouldn’t run to the press,

    Looking back, it was incredible that you never saw anything from there in the press.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,955
    geoffw said:

    You have to decide what's at issue* here
    Spoiler
    what's a tissue

    Bless you
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 23,955
    Farooq said:

    How dare you suggest we hold the UK to the same standards we hold others to.
    It wasn't illegal at the time. See also flamethrowers
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,836

    These rules would all go out of the window if we ever had a true WW3 scenario.
    Probably. As I mentioned above, the Aswan dam was on the Israeli list to hit if Israel was overrun.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,481
    edited June 2023
    Wow, is Blair going to form a new party or is he going to become Tory leader?
This discussion has been closed.