How is this possible? I thought the Russell group was the best????
So even on that most of the top 10 and the top 3 universities are all Russell Group. Your uni and the others were also always unis never polys converted to unis
Eh? Before Robbins it was Bristol College of Science and Technology
And the Robbins Report was in 1963 too!
Maybe there is some brand of sacramental oil poured on Russell Group VCs at their inauguration, to convey on them divine right ...?
How is this possible? I thought the Russell group was the best????
So even on that most of the top 10 and the top 3 universities are all Russell Group. Your uni and the others were also always unis never polys converted to unis
Eh? Before Robbins it was Bristol College of Science and Technology
So were Exeter and Manchester and Birmingham once colleges, they were never polys either
Completely off topic but if it isn’t now obvious to the RFU and everyone else involved that the entire structure of rugby union in England isn’t fit for purpose anymore then there’s no hope for them.
REAL football is played with the feet
The etymology of football stems from games with a ball played “on foot” as opposed to on horseback or with a club etc.
So rugby, gridiron, GAA, Aussie Rules all have the same right to use the word “football” as Association (from whence “soccer”) Football does. Indeed if a medieval Englishman suddenly turned up at a game of Basketball he’d describe that as football too.
This is the one released today showing that Labour could win a 140 seat majority. But lets look at a bit of detail up where I am. It shows the new Aberdeenshire North and Moray East, and Aberdeenshire Central seats being won by *Labour* on their baseline poll assumptions.
AN&ME is 69% of Banff and Buchan, and 31% of Moray. B&B result 2019: Labour 4th with 1,734 votes (4.1%) Moray result 2019: Labour 3rd with 2,432 votes (5.0%)
AC is 70% of Gordon, and 31% of Banff & Buchan Gordon result 2019: Labour 4th with 3,052 votes (5.5%) B&B result 2019: Labour 4th with 1,734 votes (4.1%)
How the actual fuck does MRP think Labour will win either seat?
Well it also thinks Labour will win Broxbourne and Oxford West and Abingdon on current polling
Remember the reaction when YouGov MRP predicted Canterbury would go Labour in 2017. Guffaws all round…including on here I’d wager.
With any model, it depends what inputs you wire up to what outputs. Given how much of Lib Dem winning is down to saturation campaigning in specific seats, it seems plausible that this MRP simply isn't picking up whatever factor makes seats turn yellow not red.
Meanwhile, the big picture is that, even if you turn the Don't Know and Reform voters entirely blue, the Conservatives still lose badly and Labour are close enough to 326 that they don't really need anyone else.
We all know how MRP works, but for those in the cheap seats...
* 1. Take a big sample * 2. Subdivide it by group (age/sex/socioeconomic category) * 3. Work out the voting intention of each group * 4. Work out how many people there are for each group in each constituency * 5. Plug 3 into 4 * 6. You now know the voting intention in each constituency * 7. Weigh those groups by turnout (this is the hard bit since you are guessing) * 8. You now know the votes in each constituency * 9. Add up all 8s, and you now know the election result
Hence the screwiness of the Lib Dem prediction.
MRP is great at the blue/not blue battleground, and picking up seats that are changing demographically.
But that won't help as much with the precise shade of not blue. Right now, there aren't really enough Lib Dem 2019 seats to build up a generic profile of seats that ought to be Lib Dem for demographic reasons.
Re MRP, OXWAB is probably the type of constituency that is filled with demographic groups that favour Labour (Remain voters, university workers, public sector middle class workers) but, for historic reasons, the non-Conservative vote was united behind the Lib Dems, and there it will remain.
Broxbourne going Labour makes no sense at any level. If the Conservatives won the most votes in May, which they did comfortably, they'll do so in a GE. Broxbourne is basically like Epping, politically ie the English equivalent of Navarre.
Completely off topic but if it isn’t now obvious to the RFU and everyone else involved that the entire structure of rugby union in England isn’t fit for purpose anymore then there’s no hope for them.
What's the issue? I can see why Wasps went bust (gambled on filling a big venue in a new location), but why have Irish gone under?
Ireland and France are now seriously superior to England at rugby - seems no coincidence they also have much better club structures. The whole England pro set up is dysfunctional - likewise Wales
Re MRP, OXWAB is probably the type of constituency that is filled with demographic groups that favour Labour (Remain voters, university workers, public sector middle class workers) but, for historic reasons, the non-Conservative vote was united behind the Lib Dems, and there it will remain.
Broxbourne going Labour makes no sense at any level. If the Conservatives won the most votes in May, which they did comfortably, they'll do so in a GE. Broxbourne is basically like Epping, politically ie the English equivalent of Navarre.
Average house prices in Summertown are also now over £1 million and most of the constituency are home owners not renters. It is not going to vote Labour, even if it doesn't vote Tory post Brexit (and remember the Tories won OXWAB in 2010 and 2015 under Cameron) it will keep voting LD https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/summertown.html
Broxbourne is also now even more Tory than Epping, most Epping district councillors are now LD, most Broxbourne councillors are still Tory
Sir Keir Starmer is on course to win more seats than Sir Tony Blair’s landslide victory, according to the first big constituency polling conducted under the new boundaries.
The best-case scenario for Rishi Sunak is that the Conservatives are the second party in a hung parliament, the 10,140-person MRP poll conducted by Focaldata for Best for Britain suggests. The model used to translate the polling into seats uses the new boundaries that will shortly be approved for the next general election.
The poll recorded Labour’s national support at 35 per cent, 12 points ahead of the Conservatives on 23 per cent. This would secure Labour 470 seats to the Conservatives’ 129, a 290-seat majority.
Sir Keir Starmer is on course to win more seats than Sir Tony Blair’s landslide victory, according to the first big constituency polling conducted under the new boundaries.
The best-case scenario for Rishi Sunak is that the Conservatives are the second party in a hung parliament, the 10,140-person MRP poll conducted by Focaldata for Best for Britain suggests. The model used to translate the polling into seats uses the new boundaries that will shortly be approved for the next general election.
The poll recorded Labour’s national support at 35 per cent, 12 points ahead of the Conservatives on 23 per cent. This would secure Labour 470 seats to the Conservatives’ 129, a 290-seat majority.
'If the Reform Party decided to stand aside in Conservative marginals, as their predecessor the Brexit Party did in 2019, Labour would win 401 seats to the Conservatives’s 202 — a majority of 152.
In a scenario where greater weighting is given to the levels of education of voters who are currently undecided, Labour would win 370 seats to the Conservatives’s 232 — giving Starmer a majority of 90.
If both of those factors were combined to create a worst-case scenario for Labour, Starmer would win 316 seats and Sunak would have 286, leaving Labour just short of a majority.'
On Sunak facing a VONC. This is based on the assumption that enough would jump to letters, a non trivial step, and enough would then VONC him to weaken him.
Both require a degree of confidence in what comes next. And if the answer to that is that Boris 2023 will have 100 backers, Boris 2023 will actually bloody stand, Boris 2023 won't have 20 Russian oligarchs enter stage left tap dancing, Boris 2023 will prevail through all the steps against the anti forces, I just don't see it.
May and Johnson removals were due to additional wounds after a bad but not fatal VONC result - the Euro elections for May, the Pincher confusion for Boris. If Sunak got to the point of having a bad but not fatal VONC, the next blow would come at some point, but I don't think he'll suffer a bad VONC.
Sir Keir Starmer is on course to win more seats than Sir Tony Blair’s landslide victory, according to the first big constituency polling conducted under the new boundaries.
The best-case scenario for Rishi Sunak is that the Conservatives are the second party in a hung parliament, the 10,140-person MRP poll conducted by Focaldata for Best for Britain suggests. The model used to translate the polling into seats uses the new boundaries that will shortly be approved for the next general election.
The poll recorded Labour’s national support at 35 per cent, 12 points ahead of the Conservatives on 23 per cent. This would secure Labour 470 seats to the Conservatives’ 129, a 290-seat majority.
'If the Reform Party decided to stand aside in Conservative marginals, as their predecessor the Brexit Party did in 2019, Labour would win 401 seats to the Conservatives’s 202 — a majority of 152.
In a scenario where greater weighting is given to the levels of education of voters who are currently undecided, Labour would win 370 seats to the Conservatives’s 232 — giving Starmer a majority of 90.
If both of those factors were combined to create a worst-case scenario for Labour, Starmer would win 316 seats and Sunak would have 286, leaving Labour just short of a majority.'
But realistically- how likely is it that both of those factors will happen? It's basically turning the Conservative-favourable parameters of the model up to 11, and that's still not enough to keep Starmer out of Downing Street.
If it's a future event, it's possible, of course... but it looks pretty improbable.
Sir Keir Starmer is on course to win more seats than Sir Tony Blair’s landslide victory, according to the first big constituency polling conducted under the new boundaries.
The best-case scenario for Rishi Sunak is that the Conservatives are the second party in a hung parliament, the 10,140-person MRP poll conducted by Focaldata for Best for Britain suggests. The model used to translate the polling into seats uses the new boundaries that will shortly be approved for the next general election.
The poll recorded Labour’s national support at 35 per cent, 12 points ahead of the Conservatives on 23 per cent. This would secure Labour 470 seats to the Conservatives’ 129, a 290-seat majority.
'If the Reform Party decided to stand aside in Conservative marginals, as their predecessor the Brexit Party did in 2019, Labour would win 401 seats to the Conservatives’s 202 — a majority of 152.
In a scenario where greater weighting is given to the levels of education of voters who are currently undecided, Labour would win 370 seats to the Conservatives’s 232 — giving Starmer a majority of 90.
If both of those factors were combined to create a worst-case scenario for Labour, Starmer would win 316 seats and Sunak would have 286, leaving Labour just short of a majority.'
But realistically- how likely is it that both of those factors will happen? It's basically turning the Conservative-favourable parameters of the model up to 11, and that's still not enough to keep Starmer out of Downing Street.
If it's a future event, it's possible, of course... but it looks pretty improbable.
The hung parliament of 2017 was also improbable when May had huge leads 3 months before of course. As was the hung parliament of 2010 when Cameron had huge leads in 2009 and as was the Tory majority of 2015 when Labour was ahead in most polls in 2012 and 2013
Sir Keir Starmer is on course to win more seats than Sir Tony Blair’s landslide victory, according to the first big constituency polling conducted under the new boundaries.
The best-case scenario for Rishi Sunak is that the Conservatives are the second party in a hung parliament, the 10,140-person MRP poll conducted by Focaldata for Best for Britain suggests. The model used to translate the polling into seats uses the new boundaries that will shortly be approved for the next general election.
The poll recorded Labour’s national support at 35 per cent, 12 points ahead of the Conservatives on 23 per cent. This would secure Labour 470 seats to the Conservatives’ 129, a 290-seat majority.
That feels wrong for a lot of reasons but it opens up a useful question. At what percentage does the Tory party start to suddenly lose a lot of seats - is it 28%,25%, 23%....
Either Europe's centrist parties get a grip on this issue or, eventually, we'll see European polities collapse into autocracy and dictatorship as they become overwhelmed with the problem."
++++
I reckon it is too late. The numbers of migrants are too big and the waves will come too fast
Brace. I expect several countries to veer into far right politics, or, to be more precise, populism with a large dollop of xenophobia (the actual economics might well be "left"), and regimes prepared to shoot people or sink boats
We're already there in Hungary, Poland, maybe Greece, possibly Italy if Meloni can't get a grip
Turning back boats at gunpoint is one guaranteed way to stop them.
So, if they don't, then sooner or later I expect some regime to try it.
The Greeks have already been filmed towing boats back out into the Aegean and saying Fuck off, good luck, don't come back
Eventually the Italians will do the same, and hang the consequences. No society can tolerate 400,000 illegal people simply swarming the frontier (and 400,000 is the prediction for this year in Italy). Meloni's entire career depends on this. This is her THING. If she - openly "hard right" - cannot stop the boats then the Italians will vote for someone prepared to be even tougher
It will end in gunfire and drownings, but then, it already does: it is just hidden away in Africa - but now it will become visible
Ironically the Greeks could do with a bit of immigration, since their population is in decline and the fertility rate is 1.3.
That’s the weird thing. Being anti-immigration in Southern Europe where nobody has babies anymore is true foot shooting behaviour. And oddly hypocritical, in countries that have exported millions of emigrants over the last century to America, Australia and Northern Europe.
I don't really agree with that. Immigration is about more than numbers. Culture, integration/assimilation are other acceptable things to consider. And I wouldn't say those countries have exported their people. Individuals from those countries freely chose to leave and other countries decided to accept them. I can't see it as hypocritical.
Both you and Williamglen make a valid point. Those who emigrated are different from those left behind who don’t like immigration. One group doesn’t owe the other anything.
Perhaps that’s part of the reason these countries are slowly dying. The dynamic, entrepreneurial ones emigrated to seek their fortune. They certainly didn’t mind about living somewhere - like Australia - that was a melting pot of new cultures. The cautious home-loving ones stayed behind, and just want a quiet life. Immigration means change, and challenge, and things not being like the old days.
We don’t have the emigration problem so much in Britain, at least not these days, because a. unemployment hasn’t been a problem for a long time, and b. we don’t do foreign languages. But our demographics aren’t much better than Italy or Greece. Better, though trending in the wrong direction. But thankfully we have a much more balanced attitude towards immigration.
Apparently the UK had the largest expat population of any EU member state in 2016, but most of them migrated to other Anglosphere countries:
I wonder where the highest global % (not in absolute numbers) is?
Lebanon?
Some small, obscure country whose a) economy fell off a cliff a few decades ago, and b ) had a free movement agreement / liberal visa regime with other more prosperous countries, i'd guess.
Somewhere in the Caribbean, perhaps?
Lesotho/Eswatini?
Of the countries on that map, probably Latvia.
Were there any good suggestions for countries with the largest % of their home-born citizens living abroad? I propose Guyana, with a proportion said to be ~60%.
Sir Keir Starmer is on course to win more seats than Sir Tony Blair’s landslide victory, according to the first big constituency polling conducted under the new boundaries.
The best-case scenario for Rishi Sunak is that the Conservatives are the second party in a hung parliament, the 10,140-person MRP poll conducted by Focaldata for Best for Britain suggests. The model used to translate the polling into seats uses the new boundaries that will shortly be approved for the next general election.
The poll recorded Labour’s national support at 35 per cent, 12 points ahead of the Conservatives on 23 per cent. This would secure Labour 470 seats to the Conservatives’ 129, a 290-seat majority.
The Tories with another 15 months of sensible, popular polices - versus SKS closing down the North Sea, etc. - and both parties will be close together in the upper 30's. It's what previous Tory voters are wanting to see before they re-engage. If they deliver, the Tory vote will rise significantly.
The Tories should not revert to Thatcherism. They need to rethink what Conservatism means for a country facing the challenges of the 2030's and 2040's. Not rehash an old old tune - without even properly understanding it.
Thatcherism was a flawed project anyway - though it's flaw didn't become fully clear for a couple of decades.
Re-adopting it now would be nuts.
"Thatcherism" as now understood isn't how she would have described her philosophy at the time. It's been distorted by her admirers as well as by her enemies.
I don't really care about how she described it, since that was as much spin as substance. I was thinking more about what she actually did.
What she actually did also vastly differs from what she is remembered as having done.
If Scot Nats get all uppity, I like to remind them Mrs Thatcher decriminalised homosexuality in Scotland, which the SNP opposed.
Section 28 is an aberrance in Mrs Thatcher's usually pro gay rights history.
Voted for Leo Abse's bill, decriminalised homosexuality in Scotland and Norn Iron, and happily employed gayers.
Also the ozone layer.
Also enthusiastically pro European in government, campaigned for Remain.
And recognised the dangers posed by climate change. In 1989 - 34 years ago!
Sir Keir Starmer is on course to win more seats than Sir Tony Blair’s landslide victory, according to the first big constituency polling conducted under the new boundaries.
The best-case scenario for Rishi Sunak is that the Conservatives are the second party in a hung parliament, the 10,140-person MRP poll conducted by Focaldata for Best for Britain suggests. The model used to translate the polling into seats uses the new boundaries that will shortly be approved for the next general election.
The poll recorded Labour’s national support at 35 per cent, 12 points ahead of the Conservatives on 23 per cent. This would secure Labour 470 seats to the Conservatives’ 129, a 290-seat majority.
'If the Reform Party decided to stand aside in Conservative marginals, as their predecessor the Brexit Party did in 2019, Labour would win 401 seats to the Conservatives’s 202 — a majority of 152.
In a scenario where greater weighting is given to the levels of education of voters who are currently undecided, Labour would win 370 seats to the Conservatives’s 232 — giving Starmer a majority of 90.
If both of those factors were combined to create a worst-case scenario for Labour, Starmer would win 316 seats and Sunak would have 286, leaving Labour just short of a majority.'
But realistically- how likely is it that both of those factors will happen? It's basically turning the Conservative-favourable parameters of the model up to 11, and that's still not enough to keep Starmer out of Downing Street.
If it's a future event, it's possible, of course... but it looks pretty improbable.
The hung parliament of 2017 was also improbable when May had huge leads 3 months before of course. As was the hung parliament of 2010 when Cameron had huge leads in 2009 and as was the Tory majority of 2015 when Labour was ahead in most polls in 2012 and 2013
Your point being what????
That estimates of probability aren't relevant to political betting? Wishful thinking is better?
Sir Keir Starmer is on course to win more seats than Sir Tony Blair’s landslide victory, according to the first big constituency polling conducted under the new boundaries.
The best-case scenario for Rishi Sunak is that the Conservatives are the second party in a hung parliament, the 10,140-person MRP poll conducted by Focaldata for Best for Britain suggests. The model used to translate the polling into seats uses the new boundaries that will shortly be approved for the next general election.
The poll recorded Labour’s national support at 35 per cent, 12 points ahead of the Conservatives on 23 per cent. This would secure Labour 470 seats to the Conservatives’ 129, a 290-seat majority.
That feels wrong for a lot of reasons but it opens up a useful question. At what percentage does the Tory party start to suddenly lose a lot of seats - is it 28%,25%, 23%....
The MRP poll gives 44/29, excluding don’t knows. I don’t believe Labour would win 470 seats on those figures.
32% is roughly where the Conservatives have to get to, to avoid a rout.
Sir Keir Starmer is on course to win more seats than Sir Tony Blair’s landslide victory, according to the first big constituency polling conducted under the new boundaries.
The best-case scenario for Rishi Sunak is that the Conservatives are the second party in a hung parliament, the 10,140-person MRP poll conducted by Focaldata for Best for Britain suggests. The model used to translate the polling into seats uses the new boundaries that will shortly be approved for the next general election.
The poll recorded Labour’s national support at 35 per cent, 12 points ahead of the Conservatives on 23 per cent. This would secure Labour 470 seats to the Conservatives’ 129, a 290-seat majority.
Something odd is going on. Peter Kellner in January opined that Labour need a 10-13 % point lead to get a majority at all. The SNP situation will have changed that a bit, but not mightily.
The difference of outcomes is over 100 seats on similar Labour lead figures.
Betting opportunities? Can anyone make sense of this?
Sir Keir Starmer is on course to win more seats than Sir Tony Blair’s landslide victory, according to the first big constituency polling conducted under the new boundaries.
The best-case scenario for Rishi Sunak is that the Conservatives are the second party in a hung parliament, the 10,140-person MRP poll conducted by Focaldata for Best for Britain suggests. The model used to translate the polling into seats uses the new boundaries that will shortly be approved for the next general election.
The poll recorded Labour’s national support at 35 per cent, 12 points ahead of the Conservatives on 23 per cent. This would secure Labour 470 seats to the Conservatives’ 129, a 290-seat majority.
Something odd is going on. Peter Kellner in January opined that Labour need a 10-13 % point lead to get a majority at all. The SNP situation will have changed that a bit, but not mightily.
The difference of outcomes is over 100 seats on similar Labour lead figures.
Betting opportunities? Can anyone make sense of this?
Oxford and Cambridge don't take get ranked for that, though, unlike the other 128 universities on the list. I wonder how their overall scores are calculated, given that they didn't take part in one of the races. Man up and play all the games if you want to be on the scoreboard!
Basically the LSE won, followed by St Andrews, Bath, and Imperial.
Sir Keir Starmer is on course to win more seats than Sir Tony Blair’s landslide victory, according to the first big constituency polling conducted under the new boundaries.
The best-case scenario for Rishi Sunak is that the Conservatives are the second party in a hung parliament, the 10,140-person MRP poll conducted by Focaldata for Best for Britain suggests. The model used to translate the polling into seats uses the new boundaries that will shortly be approved for the next general election.
The poll recorded Labour’s national support at 35 per cent, 12 points ahead of the Conservatives on 23 per cent. This would secure Labour 470 seats to the Conservatives’ 129, a 290-seat majority.
The Tories with another 15 months of sensible, popular polices - versus SKS closing down the North Sea, etc. - and both parties will be close together in the upper 30's. It's what previous Tory voters are wanting to see before they re-engage. If they deliver, the Tory vote will rise significantly.
LOL, this post needs saving for posterity. I’d love to know what these “sensible” policies are
Sir Keir Starmer is on course to win more seats than Sir Tony Blair’s landslide victory, according to the first big constituency polling conducted under the new boundaries.
The best-case scenario for Rishi Sunak is that the Conservatives are the second party in a hung parliament, the 10,140-person MRP poll conducted by Focaldata for Best for Britain suggests. The model used to translate the polling into seats uses the new boundaries that will shortly be approved for the next general election.
The poll recorded Labour’s national support at 35 per cent, 12 points ahead of the Conservatives on 23 per cent. This would secure Labour 470 seats to the Conservatives’ 129, a 290-seat majority.
Something odd is going on. Peter Kellner in January opined that Labour need a 10-13 % point lead to get a majority at all. The SNP situation will have changed that a bit, but not mightily.
The difference of outcomes is over 100 seats on similar Labour lead figures.
Betting opportunities? Can anyone make sense of this?
Oxford and Cambridge don't take get ranked for that, though, unlike the other 128 universities on the list. I wonder how their overall scores are calculated, given that they didn't take part in one of the races. Man up and play all the games if you want to be on the scoreboard!
Basically the LSE won, followed by St Andrews, Bath, and Imperial.
SOAS probably would have won, but they were disqualified for drugs.
Michael Sheen wants Welsh actors to play Welsh people, seemingly forgetting that, at its heart, acting is pretending to be someone else.
Its ok. Kenneth Williams, Tony Blair, David Frost, Brian Clough were all Welsh, so no hypocrisy on display.
I thought the point he was making was that Welsh characters should always be played by Welsh actors, not that Welsh actors shouldn't be allowed to portray characters of other types.
But that makes him a hypocrite then.
I think it's a bit unfair to accuse someone of hypocrisy if they're espousing a consistent principle - priority for Welsh actors.
Just view it as a kind of reparation for the wrongs committed over the millennia by the Anglo-Saxons.
Jutes will not replace us.
H/t Ghedebrav
#Justice4BeakerPeople!
Never mind the Beakers, what about the Neandertalers?
Send them back to Neandertal. I'm sure the Home Sec would oblige if she could work out how.
Oxford and Cambridge don't take get ranked for that, though, unlike the other 128 universities on the list. I wonder how their overall scores are calculated, given that they didn't take part in one of the races. Man up and play all the games if you want to be on the scoreboard!
Basically the LSE won, followed by St Andrews, Bath, and Imperial.
St Andrews also has the heir to the throne (and the former Scottish FM and current Alba leader), even if Cambridge has the current King (with Aberystwyth which is second for student satisfaction), Oxford the current PM and also the likely next PM (albeit so does Leeds)
Michael Sheen wants Welsh actors to play Welsh people, seemingly forgetting that, at its heart, acting is pretending to be someone else.
Its ok. Kenneth Williams, Tony Blair, David Frost, Brian Clough were all Welsh, so no hypocrisy on display.
I thought the point he was making was that Welsh characters should always be played by Welsh actors, not that Welsh actors shouldn't be allowed to portray characters of other types.
But that makes him a hypocrite then.
I think it's a bit unfair to accuse someone of hypocrisy if they're espousing a consistent principle - priority for Welsh actors.
Just view it as a kind of reparation for the wrongs committed over the millennia by the Anglo-Saxons.
Jutes will not replace us.
H/t Ghedebrav
#Justice4BeakerPeople!
Never mind the Beakers, what about the Neandertalers?
Send them back to Neandertal. I'm sure the Home Sec would oblige if she could work out how.
Sir Keir Starmer is on course to win more seats than Sir Tony Blair’s landslide victory, according to the first big constituency polling conducted under the new boundaries.
The best-case scenario for Rishi Sunak is that the Conservatives are the second party in a hung parliament, the 10,140-person MRP poll conducted by Focaldata for Best for Britain suggests. The model used to translate the polling into seats uses the new boundaries that will shortly be approved for the next general election.
The poll recorded Labour’s national support at 35 per cent, 12 points ahead of the Conservatives on 23 per cent. This would secure Labour 470 seats to the Conservatives’ 129, a 290-seat majority.
'If the Reform Party decided to stand aside in Conservative marginals, as their predecessor the Brexit Party did in 2019, Labour would win 401 seats to the Conservatives’s 202 — a majority of 152.
In a scenario where greater weighting is given to the levels of education of voters who are currently undecided, Labour would win 370 seats to the Conservatives’s 232 — giving Starmer a majority of 90.
If both of those factors were combined to create a worst-case scenario for Labour, Starmer would win 316 seats and Sunak would have 286, leaving Labour just short of a majority.'
It's bizarre that anyone should model a scenario where Reform stand down anywhere in favour of the Conservatives this time around. They only did so last time to deliver Brexit, and this time their supporters appear to be fuming at Conservative betrayal on Brexit, immigration, HS2 etc etc. They are in no mood to back down and have no need to. The best you could hope for is that they might be short of the odd candidate in a few seats.
Last time even with Brexit at stake where they did stand in non-Conservative held seats they were averaging around 4%, so seemed immune to being squeezed. This time their candidates are likely to cause a particularly sharp swing in those seats which the Conservatives are relying on holding in order to deny the Conservatives a majority - that is seats that already had a Conservative MP by 2019, as opposed to the Red Wall seats which went Conservative in 2019 and seem generally to be lower hanging fruit for Labour.
A more realistic model would be to model a repeat of what has happened repeatedly at recent general elections, namely that the Green Party vote gets badly squeezed as polling day approaches, particularly in marginal seats. And throw in a heathy dose of tactical voting depending on whether Labour or the Lib Dems are the closer challenger.
On topic. I don't think Rishi Sunak will be replaced before the next election. Simply because he has the power to threaten to call an election if anyone threatens him with the sack.
“We are now dangerously close to nuclear war The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”
Best for Britain have just released a new MRP poll, leading with the projection that Labour would be sat on 470 seats - which would amount to a majority of 290. The figure came about on a Labour vote share lead of 12%, with the party on 35% to the Conservatives' 23%. The fact that such a large parliamentary win comes about from a more modest vote lead flies in the face of some commentary - which suggested a double-digit lead could be the minimum requirement for a majority government. However, it's worth looking closer at their seat projections before Keir Starmer can start measuring up his Downing Street desk.
Even a cursory glance at the headline figures should give cause for scepticism. The model predicts the Liberal Democrats will win just five seats, which seems counter-intuitive even on a drop in vote share. Meanwhile, the first-place finisher in two separate seats was... "don't know".
It’s not a subsample so hardly worth noting, let alone worthy of a PB thread all of its own.
Definite signs of Humza not fucking up, mind.
SKS otoh..
If Yousaf only got 36% for the SNP in 2026 however that would almost certainly see a Unionist majority even if he stayed FM. Where the SCons went would be crucial, Ross would decide effectively whether Yousaf stayed FM or Sarwar replaced him
Sir Keir Starmer is on course to win more seats than Sir Tony Blair’s landslide victory, according to the first big constituency polling conducted under the new boundaries.
The best-case scenario for Rishi Sunak is that the Conservatives are the second party in a hung parliament, the 10,140-person MRP poll conducted by Focaldata for Best for Britain suggests. The model used to translate the polling into seats uses the new boundaries that will shortly be approved for the next general election.
The poll recorded Labour’s national support at 35 per cent, 12 points ahead of the Conservatives on 23 per cent. This would secure Labour 470 seats to the Conservatives’ 129, a 290-seat majority.
The Tories with another 15 months of sensible, popular polices - versus SKS closing down the North Sea, etc. - and both parties will be close together in the upper 30's. It's what previous Tory voters are wanting to see before they re-engage. If they deliver, the Tory vote will rise significantly.
LOL, this post needs saving for posterity. I’d love to know what these “sensible” policies are
We are still over a year away from the next election, time for the Tory stormtroopers in the media, including the garbage that GB news puts out, to fine tune their message, make a character assassination on Starmer, underestimate the pro Tory forces at your peril, I still think a hung parliament is by far the most likely outcome, but considering the car crash that Starmer took over at Labour, is no mean achievement
Sir Keir Starmer is on course to win more seats than Sir Tony Blair’s landslide victory, according to the first big constituency polling conducted under the new boundaries.
The best-case scenario for Rishi Sunak is that the Conservatives are the second party in a hung parliament, the 10,140-person MRP poll conducted by Focaldata for Best for Britain suggests. The model used to translate the polling into seats uses the new boundaries that will shortly be approved for the next general election.
The poll recorded Labour’s national support at 35 per cent, 12 points ahead of the Conservatives on 23 per cent. This would secure Labour 470 seats to the Conservatives’ 129, a 290-seat majority.
'If the Reform Party decided to stand aside in Conservative marginals, as their predecessor the Brexit Party did in 2019, Labour would win 401 seats to the Conservatives’s 202 — a majority of 152.
In a scenario where greater weighting is given to the levels of education of voters who are currently undecided, Labour would win 370 seats to the Conservatives’s 232 — giving Starmer a majority of 90.
If both of those factors were combined to create a worst-case scenario for Labour, Starmer would win 316 seats and Sunak would have 286, leaving Labour just short of a majority.'
It's bizarre that anyone should model a scenario where Reform stand down anywhere in favour of the Conservatives this time around. They only did so last time to deliver Brexit, and this time their supporters appear to be fuming at Conservative betrayal on Brexit, immigration, HS2 etc etc. They are in no mood to back down and have no need to. The best you could hope for is that they might be short of the odd candidate in a few seats.
Last time even with Brexit at stake where they did stand in non-Conservative held seats they were averaging around 4%, so seemed immune to being squeezed. This time their candidates are likely to cause a particularly sharp swing in those seats which the Conservatives are relying on holding in order to deny the Conservatives a majority - that is seats that already had a Conservative MP by 2019, as opposed to the Red Wall seats which went Conservative in 2019 and seem generally to be lower hanging fruit for Labour.
A more realistic model would be to model a repeat of what has happened repeatedly at recent general elections, namely that the Green Party vote gets badly squeezed as polling day approaches, particularly in marginal seats. And throw in a heathy dose of tactical voting depending on whether Labour or the Lib Dems are the closer challenger.
You are right, Tice confirmed this afternoon RefUK will stand everywhere in the UK apart from NI (where presumably their DUP allies will do the job). Nothing to stop Sunak squeezing them back to 2019 levels though https://twitter.com/TiceRichard/status/1666401590918496257?s=20
Sir Keir Starmer is on course to win more seats than Sir Tony Blair’s landslide victory, according to the first big constituency polling conducted under the new boundaries.
The best-case scenario for Rishi Sunak is that the Conservatives are the second party in a hung parliament, the 10,140-person MRP poll conducted by Focaldata for Best for Britain suggests. The model used to translate the polling into seats uses the new boundaries that will shortly be approved for the next general election.
The poll recorded Labour’s national support at 35 per cent, 12 points ahead of the Conservatives on 23 per cent. This would secure Labour 470 seats to the Conservatives’ 129, a 290-seat majority.
Something odd is going on. Peter Kellner in January opined that Labour need a 10-13 % point lead to get a majority at all. The SNP situation will have changed that a bit, but not mightily.
The difference of outcomes is over 100 seats on similar Labour lead figures.
Betting opportunities? Can anyone make sense of this?
“We are now dangerously close to nuclear war The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”
“We are now dangerously close to nuclear war The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”
We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...
Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
It is conceivable we will achieve Artificial General Intelligence, get a confirmed visit from aliens, and enjoy the outbreak of nuclear war - all in the same week. Probably august?
Completely off topic but if it isn’t now obvious to the RFU and everyone else involved that the entire structure of rugby union in England isn’t fit for purpose anymore then there’s no hope for them.
What's the issue? I can see why Wasps went bust (gambled on filling a big venue in a new location), but why have Irish gone under?
They can't compete with France. The squad sizes needed are way too large with the numbers of subs and specialist positions. (Wasps had 61 full time professional players at one point, most RL clubs have about 35). Salary levels and expectations are too high (many public school educated, unlike soccer or RL), for the crowds which turn up. If you're getting 8k crowds in Castleford you can pay young fringe players minimum wage. You can't in West London.
“We are now dangerously close to nuclear war The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”
Now he’s saying that we need to focus on an impending nuclear war? Which is it?
I’ve no idea. He has a ridiculous name
However I think his point here is valid. If Putin blew the dam - and the evidence points that way - it suggests he is prepared to keep escalating - and there aren’t many further steps he can take before he reaches the nuclear level
That doesn’t mean a bomb. Could be an “accident” at ZPP
It is conceivable we will achieve Artificial General Intelligence, get a confirmed visit from aliens, and enjoy the outbreak of nuclear war - all in the same week. Probably august?
Excellent example of why the order of events is important.
Sir Keir Starmer is on course to win more seats than Sir Tony Blair’s landslide victory, according to the first big constituency polling conducted under the new boundaries.
The best-case scenario for Rishi Sunak is that the Conservatives are the second party in a hung parliament, the 10,140-person MRP poll conducted by Focaldata for Best for Britain suggests. The model used to translate the polling into seats uses the new boundaries that will shortly be approved for the next general election.
The poll recorded Labour’s national support at 35 per cent, 12 points ahead of the Conservatives on 23 per cent. This would secure Labour 470 seats to the Conservatives’ 129, a 290-seat majority.
The Tories with another 15 months of sensible, popular polices - versus SKS closing down the North Sea, etc. - and both parties will be close together in the upper 30's. It's what previous Tory voters are wanting to see before they re-engage. If they deliver, the Tory vote will rise significantly.
LOL, this post needs saving for posterity. I’d love to know what these “sensible” policies are
Please do save. You'll see these "sensible" policies outlined - at length - in the Autumn statement.
It is conceivable we will achieve Artificial General Intelligence, get a confirmed visit from aliens, and enjoy the outbreak of nuclear war - all in the same week. Probably august?
“We are now dangerously close to nuclear war The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”
We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...
Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
“We are now dangerously close to nuclear war The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”
We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...
Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
Did I blame Zelensky for cutting the water supply to Crimea in 2014?
“We are now dangerously close to nuclear war The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”
Now he’s saying that we need to focus on an impending nuclear war? Which is it?
I’ve no idea. He has a ridiculous name
However I think his point here is valid. If Putin blew the dam - and the evidence points that way - it suggests he is prepared to keep escalating - and there aren’t many further steps he can take before he reaches the nuclear level
That doesn’t mean a bomb. Could be an “accident” at ZPP
The prime military significance of the dam event may well turn out to be ZPP-related.
You say "if Putin blew the dam", but a similar conclusion follows from "if Zelensky blew the dam".
It could be that both of these f*cking nutters probably with very short penises are pushing the world in the same direction.
(Yes I have started drinking again under Armageddo-stress after many years of quiet abstention.)
I think he will still be there for the next election, realistically i think the Conservative party knows the next election is lost and a period of opposition is in store. If you are a contender for the leadership of the party with your seat safe, might as well try your chances of bouncing back in opposition.
Much like Labour in 2010, they have been in government for too long and there is a real appetite for a change now.
Starmer’s decline in Scotland is a glimpse of how Wokeness/greenery could destroy him after just one term, and maybe prevent him getting a majority
His party is insanely woke and green and will be quite unpopular with many people for that reason. He can ride an anti Tory tide for a while but then the voters will sense the lunacy of Labour on everything from trans to net zero
Starmer’s decline in Scotland is a glimpse of how Wokeness/greenery could destroy him after just one term, and maybe prevent him getting a majority
His party is insanely woke and green and will be quite unpopular with many people for that reason. He can ride an anti Tory tide for a while but then the voters will sense the lunacy of Labour on everything from trans to net zero
“We are now dangerously close to nuclear war The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”
We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...
Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
And closing a canal is not blowing up a dam.
Blowing up dams is specifically a Bad Action in International law.
Starmer’s decline in Scotland is a glimpse of how Wokeness/greenery could destroy him after just one term, and maybe prevent him getting a majority
His party is insanely woke and green and will be quite unpopular with many people for that reason. He can ride an anti Tory tide for a while but then the voters will sense the lunacy of Labour on everything from trans to net zero
Big problems ahead
Yes it was noticeable last year in particular in the local elections while Starmer Labour gained Westminster and Barnet their gains in the redwall were less than impressive. Even this year in the locals the Tories held areas like Dartford, Basildon, Dudley and Walsall and Harlow Blair won in 1997 and it was the LDs who made the biggest gains from the Tories in the South not Labour
“We are now dangerously close to nuclear war The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”
We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...
Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
And closing a canal is not blowing up a dam.
Blowing up dams is specifically a Bad Action in International law.
“We are now dangerously close to nuclear war The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”
We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...
Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
And closing a canal is not blowing up a dam.
Blowing up dams is specifically a Bad Action in International law.
Starmer’s decline in Scotland is a glimpse of how Wokeness/greenery could destroy him after just one term, and maybe prevent him getting a majority
His party is insanely woke and green and will be quite unpopular with many people for that reason. He can ride an anti Tory tide for a while but then the voters will sense the lunacy of Labour on everything from trans to net zero
Big problems ahead
Not half as problematic as the nuclear war you were predicting a few minutes ago. I’ll take Labour lunacy if you’re offering a choice.
Sir Keir Starmer is on course to win more seats than Sir Tony Blair’s landslide victory, according to the first big constituency polling conducted under the new boundaries.
The best-case scenario for Rishi Sunak is that the Conservatives are the second party in a hung parliament, the 10,140-person MRP poll conducted by Focaldata for Best for Britain suggests. The model used to translate the polling into seats uses the new boundaries that will shortly be approved for the next general election.
The poll recorded Labour’s national support at 35 per cent, 12 points ahead of the Conservatives on 23 per cent. This would secure Labour 470 seats to the Conservatives’ 129, a 290-seat majority.
The Tories with another 15 months of sensible, popular polices - versus SKS closing down the North Sea, etc. - and both parties will be close together in the upper 30's. It's what previous Tory voters are wanting to see before they re-engage. If they deliver, the Tory vote will rise significantly.
LOL, this post needs saving for posterity. I’d love to know what these “sensible” policies are
Please do save. You'll see these "sensible" policies outlined - at length - in the Autumn statement.
Labour won't know what's hit them....
What exactly are the Tories going to do - cut tax rates to pretend people are better off as they get £20 more in their pocket.
If that's the best Rishi can offer he best go for a March election before people see the reality in their April Pay packet.
Starmer’s decline in Scotland is a glimpse of how Wokeness/greenery could destroy him after just one term, and maybe prevent him getting a majority
His party is insanely woke and green and will be quite unpopular with many people for that reason. He can ride an anti Tory tide for a while but then the voters will sense the lunacy of Labour on everything from trans to net zero
Big problems ahead
How to win the election, or if not the next one then the one after: declare that despite all the BS there are only two genders. D Cummings reckons a new "Startup" party may have to do this against both of the major parties. As a card-carrying member of the loony left, I'm peeved to see how utterly spooked the left has been in recent years. Both the eco tossery and the trans idiocy make them look totally and utterly unappetising. Fortunately some sigma types remain active and of sound mind. But we are few.
Greenism's origins are not exactly on the left... It's a total spook-up to act as if they are.
Starmer’s decline in Scotland is a glimpse of how Wokeness/greenery could destroy him after just one term, and maybe prevent him getting a majority
His party is insanely woke and green and will be quite unpopular with many people for that reason. He can ride an anti Tory tide for a while but then the voters will sense the lunacy of Labour on everything from trans to net zero
“We are now dangerously close to nuclear war The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”
We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...
Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
And closing a canal is not blowing up a dam.
Blowing up dams is specifically a Bad Action in International law.
What makes the destruction of the dam immoral, and probably unlawful, is that Russia is already the aggressor, and is now causing further harm to its victim.
Blowing up a dam to slow an invading army would not be unlawful. Nor would it be unlawful for Ukraine to do so, if it gave them some strategic advantage, which was proportionate to the harm caused.
Starmer’s decline in Scotland is a glimpse of how Wokeness/greenery could destroy him after just one term, and maybe prevent him getting a majority
His party is insanely woke and green and will be quite unpopular with many people for that reason. He can ride an anti Tory tide for a while but then the voters will sense the lunacy of Labour on everything from trans to net zero
Big problems ahead
How much of that straight line decline since March are you attributing to policies talked about in the last week? Feels like you're projecting your own views without the evidence fitting it very well.
“We are now dangerously close to nuclear war The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”
We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...
Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
And closing a canal is not blowing up a dam.
Blowing up dams is specifically a Bad Action in International law.
Massively restricting the water supply to a civilian population? No problem then?
How is this possible? I thought the Russell group was the best????
So even on that most of the top 10 and the top 3 universities are all Russell Group. Your uni and the others were also always unis never polys converted to unis
Eh? Before Robbins it was Bristol College of Science and Technology
So were Exeter and Manchester and Birmingham once colleges, they were never polys either
Sir Keir Starmer is on course to win more seats than Sir Tony Blair’s landslide victory, according to the first big constituency polling conducted under the new boundaries.
The best-case scenario for Rishi Sunak is that the Conservatives are the second party in a hung parliament, the 10,140-person MRP poll conducted by Focaldata for Best for Britain suggests. The model used to translate the polling into seats uses the new boundaries that will shortly be approved for the next general election.
The poll recorded Labour’s national support at 35 per cent, 12 points ahead of the Conservatives on 23 per cent. This would secure Labour 470 seats to the Conservatives’ 129, a 290-seat majority.
The Tories with another 15 months of sensible, popular polices - versus SKS closing down the North Sea, etc. - and both parties will be close together in the upper 30's. It's what previous Tory voters are wanting to see before they re-engage. If they deliver, the Tory vote will rise significantly.
LOL, this post needs saving for posterity. I’d love to know what these “sensible” policies are
Please do save. You'll see these "sensible" policies outlined - at length - in the Autumn statement.
It is conceivable we will achieve Artificial General Intelligence, get a confirmed visit from aliens, and enjoy the outbreak of nuclear war - all in the same week. Probably august?
Excellent example of why the order of events is important.
Gonna stick my neck out and say that this will not happen in August.
It is conceivable we will achieve Artificial General Intelligence, get a confirmed visit from aliens, and enjoy the outbreak of nuclear war - all in the same week. Probably august?
Excellent example of why the order of events is important.
Gonna stick my neck out and say that this will not happen in August.
“We are now dangerously close to nuclear war The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”
We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...
Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
And closing a canal is not blowing up a dam.
Blowing up dams is specifically a Bad Action in International law.
Massively restricting the water supply to a civilian population? No problem then?
Russia can't very well claim that Crimea is Russian territory and that it's Ukraine's job to supply water to the civilians there.
“We are now dangerously close to nuclear war The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”
We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...
Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
And closing a canal is not blowing up a dam.
Blowing up dams is specifically a Bad Action in International law.
Massively restricting the water supply to a civilian population? No problem then?
It’s not a war crime. Otherwise just about everyone by, to, for, at or near the Jordan Valley would be in The Hague, for example.
Sir Keir Starmer is on course to win more seats than Sir Tony Blair’s landslide victory, according to the first big constituency polling conducted under the new boundaries.
The best-case scenario for Rishi Sunak is that the Conservatives are the second party in a hung parliament, the 10,140-person MRP poll conducted by Focaldata for Best for Britain suggests. The model used to translate the polling into seats uses the new boundaries that will shortly be approved for the next general election.
The poll recorded Labour’s national support at 35 per cent, 12 points ahead of the Conservatives on 23 per cent. This would secure Labour 470 seats to the Conservatives’ 129, a 290-seat majority.
The Tories with another 15 months of sensible, popular polices - versus SKS closing down the North Sea, etc. - and both parties will be close together in the upper 30's. It's what previous Tory voters are wanting to see before they re-engage. If they deliver, the Tory vote will rise significantly.
LOL, this post needs saving for posterity. I’d love to know what these “sensible” policies are
Please do save. You'll see these "sensible" policies outlined - at length - in the Autumn statement.
Labour won't know what's hit them....
What exactly are the Tories going to do - cut tax rates to pretend people are better off as they get £20 more in their pocket.
If that's the best Rishi can offer he best go for a March election before people see the reality in their April Pay packet.
Generally Tory policy, when they are forced to actually do something rather than talk about doing it, is to do whatever Labour proposed three months earlier and the Tories claimed would be at least one of harmful or impossible. See energy windfall taxes, energy price cap, school lunches, various covid restrictions, visas for lorry drivers etc.
Starmer’s decline in Scotland is a glimpse of how Wokeness/greenery could destroy him after just one term, and maybe prevent him getting a majority
His party is insanely woke and green and will be quite unpopular with many people for that reason. He can ride an anti Tory tide for a while but then the voters will sense the lunacy of Labour on everything from trans to net zero
Big problems ahead
Starmer has declined in Scotland due to 'wokeness/greenery', and the not-at-all-woke-and-green SNP have increased as a result. Right.
“We are now dangerously close to nuclear war The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”
We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...
Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
And closing a canal is not blowing up a dam.
Blowing up dams is specifically a Bad Action in International law.
Massively restricting the water supply to a civilian population? No problem then?
It would be asking a lot to expect Ukraine to supply water to people who have unlawfully occupied their territory.
It is conceivable we will achieve Artificial General Intelligence, get a confirmed visit from aliens, and enjoy the outbreak of nuclear war - all in the same week. Probably august?
Excellent example of why the order of events is important.
Gonna stick my neck out and say that this will not happen in August.
Hope not. I have a holiday booked.
I'm even more concerned. My holiday is not until September.
It is conceivable we will achieve Artificial General Intelligence, get a confirmed visit from aliens, and enjoy the outbreak of nuclear war - all in the same week. Probably august?
Excellent example of why the order of events is important.
Gonna stick my neck out and say that this will not happen in August.
Hope not. I have a holiday booked.
I'm even more concerned. My holiday is not until September.
Getting my holiday in at the end of June, before the end of the world.
It is conceivable we will achieve Artificial General Intelligence, get a confirmed visit from aliens, and enjoy the outbreak of nuclear war - all in the same week. Probably august?
Excellent example of why the order of events is important.
Gonna stick my neck out and say that this will not happen in August.
Hope not. I have a holiday booked.
I'm even more concerned. My holiday is not until September.
More importantly, when do OGH and TSE have their holidays booked?
“We are now dangerously close to nuclear war The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”
We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...
Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
And closing a canal is not blowing up a dam.
Blowing up dams is specifically a Bad Action in International law.
What makes the destruction of the dam immoral, and probably unlawful, is that Russia is already the aggressor, and is now causing further harm to its victim.
Blowing up a dam to slow an invading army would not be unlawful. Nor would it be unlawful for Ukraine to do so, if it gave them some strategic advantage, which was proportionate to the harm caused.
Unless you can point to legal backup in black and white, I'm calling BS, Surely the whole point of humanitarian law as it applies in war is that all sides must recognise the rights of all civilians (and service personnel prisoners for that matter).
“We are now dangerously close to nuclear war The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”
We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...
Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
And closing a canal is not blowing up a dam.
Blowing up dams is specifically a Bad Action in International law.
“We are now dangerously close to nuclear war The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”
We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...
Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
Did I blame Zelensky for cutting the water supply to Crimea in 2014?
“We are now dangerously close to nuclear war The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”
Now he’s saying that we need to focus on an impending nuclear war? Which is it?
I’ve no idea. He has a ridiculous name
However I think his point here is valid. If Putin blew the dam - and the evidence points that way - it suggests he is prepared to keep escalating - and there aren’t many further steps he can take before he reaches the nuclear level
That doesn’t mean a bomb. Could be an “accident” at ZPP
The prime military significance of the dam event may well turn out to be ZPP-related.
You say "if Putin blew the dam", but a similar conclusion follows from "if Zelensky blew the dam".
It could be that both of these f*cking nutters probably with very short penises are pushing the world in the same direction.
(Yes I have started drinking again under Armageddo-stress after many years of quiet abstention.)
On the bright side a nuclear war will put lots of dust in the atmosphere and counteract the warming effect
It is conceivable we will achieve Artificial General Intelligence, get a confirmed visit from aliens, and enjoy the outbreak of nuclear war - all in the same week. Probably august?
Excellent example of why the order of events is important.
Gonna stick my neck out and say that this will not happen in August.
Hope not. I have a holiday booked.
I'm even more concerned. My holiday is not until September.
More importantly, when do OGH and TSE have their holidays booked?
I have a holiday booked from June 23rd to July 11th.
Sir Keir Starmer is on course to win more seats than Sir Tony Blair’s landslide victory, according to the first big constituency polling conducted under the new boundaries.
The best-case scenario for Rishi Sunak is that the Conservatives are the second party in a hung parliament, the 10,140-person MRP poll conducted by Focaldata for Best for Britain suggests. The model used to translate the polling into seats uses the new boundaries that will shortly be approved for the next general election.
The poll recorded Labour’s national support at 35 per cent, 12 points ahead of the Conservatives on 23 per cent. This would secure Labour 470 seats to the Conservatives’ 129, a 290-seat majority.
The Tories with another 15 months of sensible, popular polices - versus SKS closing down the North Sea, etc. - and both parties will be close together in the upper 30's. It's what previous Tory voters are wanting to see before they re-engage. If they deliver, the Tory vote will rise significantly.
LOL, this post needs saving for posterity. I’d love to know what these “sensible” policies are
Please do save. You'll see these "sensible" policies outlined - at length - in the Autumn statement.
Labour won't know what's hit them....
More's the point - why has it taken you Conservatives 13 years to come up with some "sensible" and "popular" policies?
Even the average dinosaur had a more rapid and coherent thought process.
“We are now dangerously close to nuclear war The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”
We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...
Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
And closing a canal is not blowing up a dam.
Blowing up dams is specifically a Bad Action in International law.
“We are now dangerously close to nuclear war The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”
We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...
Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
And closing a canal is not blowing up a dam.
Blowing up dams is specifically a Bad Action in International law.
Massively restricting the water supply to a civilian population? No problem then?
It’s not a war crime. Otherwise just about everyone by, to, for, at or near the Jordan Valley would be in The Hague, for example.
Attacks on dams are war crimes, as explicitly noted in Article 56 of Protocol I and Article 15 of Protocol II of the 1977 Protocols to the Geneva Conventions.
“We are now dangerously close to nuclear war The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”
We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...
Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
Zelenskyy was not president of Ukraine until 2019
And closing a canal is not blowing up a dam.
Blowing up dams is specifically a Bad Action in International law.
“We are now dangerously close to nuclear war The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”
We probably are dangerously close to nuclear war, but where was Hamish when Ukraine cut most of the water supply to the Crimea during 2014-22 by closing the North Crimean Canal? If it's a war crime it must be a war crime whichever side does it. Since when was blowing up a dam unconventional anyway? And it's not at all clear who did it yet, although if the Russian assertion that Ukraine shelled it is anywhere near the truth they will probably furnish evidence within a few days...and if they don't...
Turning off the canal didn't result in anybody drowning and didn't cause any damage to property.
Most of the water supply was used for industry and agriculture.
Comments
Russell group is really a lobbying group / voting block - for many years obvious Universities (Oxford, Durham) weren't members for various reasons.
Maybe there is some brand of sacramental oil poured on Russell Group VCs at their inauguration, to convey on them divine right ...?
So rugby, gridiron, GAA, Aussie Rules all have the same right to use the word “football” as Association (from whence “soccer”) Football does. Indeed if a medieval Englishman suddenly turned up at a game of Basketball he’d describe that as football too.
I can pedant with the best of them.
MRP is great at the blue/not blue battleground, and picking up seats that are changing demographically.
But that won't help as much with the precise shade of not blue. Right now, there aren't really enough Lib Dem 2019 seats to build up a generic profile of seats that ought to be Lib Dem for demographic reasons.
Broxbourne going Labour makes no sense at any level. If the Conservatives won the most votes in May, which they did comfortably, they'll do so in a GE. Broxbourne is basically like Epping, politically ie the English equivalent of Navarre.
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/summertown.html
Broxbourne is also now even more Tory than Epping, most Epping district councillors are now LD, most Broxbourne councillors are still Tory
The best-case scenario for Rishi Sunak is that the Conservatives are the second party in a hung parliament, the 10,140-person MRP poll conducted by Focaldata for Best for Britain suggests. The model used to translate the polling into seats uses the new boundaries that will shortly be approved for the next general election.
The poll recorded Labour’s national support at 35 per cent, 12 points ahead of the Conservatives on 23 per cent. This would secure Labour 470 seats to the Conservatives’ 129, a 290-seat majority.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/keir-starmer-to-beat-blair-landslide-in-general-election-poll-finds-ks26rxjng
In a scenario where greater weighting is given to the levels of education of voters who are currently undecided, Labour would win 370 seats to the Conservatives’s 232 — giving Starmer a majority of 90.
If both of those factors were combined to create a worst-case scenario for Labour, Starmer would win 316 seats and Sunak would have 286, leaving Labour just short of a majority.'
Both require a degree of confidence in what comes next. And if the answer to that is that Boris 2023 will have 100 backers, Boris 2023 will actually bloody stand, Boris 2023 won't have 20 Russian oligarchs enter stage left tap dancing, Boris 2023 will prevail through all the steps against the anti forces, I just don't see it.
May and Johnson removals were due to additional wounds after a bad but not fatal VONC result - the Euro elections for May, the Pincher confusion for Boris. If Sunak got to the point of having a bad but not fatal VONC, the next blow would come at some point, but I don't think he'll suffer a bad VONC.
If it's a future event, it's possible, of course... but it looks pretty improbable.
https://twitter.com/FBAwayDays/status/1666466329128206336
Australia 300 for 3
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/scorecard/ECKE1000130
The Tories with another 15 months of sensible, popular polices - versus SKS closing down the North Sea, etc. - and both parties will be close together in the upper 30's. It's what previous Tory voters are wanting to see before they re-engage. If they deliver, the Tory vote will rise significantly.
Yousaf seems to have stabilised the SNP and labour not doing as well as expected
Indeed it seems the conservatives in Scotland are staging a small recovery
I would venture to suggest labour's hopes of good gains at GE24 will depend almost entirely on the outcome of the police investigations
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1666476416202833921?t=5iT_Ou0l8nnA-gXPkqPLHg&s=19
Bath, UEA, Essex, Reading, Lancaster and Leicester, Royal Holloway, SOAS and Sussex were amongst universities also in the 1994 group
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_Group
That estimates of probability aren't relevant to political betting? Wishful thinking is better?
32% is roughly where the Conservatives have to get to, to avoid a rout.
The difference of outcomes is over 100 seats on similar Labour lead figures.
Betting opportunities? Can anyone make sense of this?
https://kellnerpolitics.com/2023/01/27/801/
https://www.thecompleteuniversityguide.co.uk/league-tables/rankings?sortby=student-satisfaction
Oxford and Cambridge don't take get ranked for that, though, unlike the other 128 universities on the list. I wonder how their overall scores are calculated, given that they didn't take part in one of the races. Man up and play all the games if you want to be on the scoreboard!
Basically the LSE won, followed by St Andrews, Bath, and Imperial.
I'm sure the Home Sec would oblige if she could work out how.
Last time even with Brexit at stake where they did stand in non-Conservative held seats they were averaging around 4%, so seemed immune to being squeezed. This time their candidates are likely to cause a particularly sharp swing in those seats which the Conservatives are relying on holding in order to deny the Conservatives a majority - that is seats that already had a Conservative MP by 2019, as opposed to the Red Wall seats which went Conservative in 2019 and seem generally to be lower hanging fruit for Labour.
A more realistic model would be to model a repeat of what has happened repeatedly at recent general elections, namely that the Green Party vote gets badly squeezed as polling day approaches, particularly in marginal seats. And throw in a heathy dose of tactical voting depending on whether Labour or the Lib Dems are the closer challenger.
Definite signs of Humza not fucking up, mind.
SKS otoh..
Simply because he has the power to threaten to call an election if anyone threatens him with the sack.
Brace?
“We are now dangerously close to nuclear war
The dam attack is a turning point. The West must act urgently to stop Putin seeing unconventional warfare as a viable option”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/06/07/we-are-now-perilously-close-to-nuclear-war/
https://pollingreport.uk/articles/why-labours-lead-probably-wont-translate-to-a-470-seat-landslide
Best for Britain have just released a new MRP poll, leading with the projection that Labour would be sat on 470 seats - which would amount to a majority of 290. The figure came about on a Labour vote share lead of 12%, with the party on 35% to the Conservatives' 23%. The fact that such a large parliamentary win comes about from a more modest vote lead flies in the face of some commentary - which suggested a double-digit lead could be the minimum requirement for a majority government. However, it's worth looking closer at their seat projections before Keir Starmer can start measuring up his Downing Street desk.
Even a cursory glance at the headline figures should give cause for scepticism. The model predicts the Liberal Democrats will win just five seats, which seems counter-intuitive even on a drop in vote share. Meanwhile, the first-place finisher in two separate seats was... "don't know".
https://twitter.com/TiceRichard/status/1666401590918496257?s=20
Who the hell is advising him???
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/04/26/vladimir-putin-already-lost-ukraine-chinas-war-taiwan/
Now he’s saying that we need to focus on an impending nuclear war? Which is it?
Lab 34 (+13), Con 30 (-20), LD 26 (-1), Green 5 (+4), Reform 5 (+5). Changes v GE 2019.
Lowest Con vote share since January, highest LD vote share yet (though still behind GE 2019 levels).
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-blue-wall-voting-intention-4-june-2023/
Someone needs to bang Putin and Zelensky's heads together.
The squad sizes needed are way too large with the numbers of subs and specialist positions. (Wasps had 61 full time professional players at one point, most RL clubs have about 35).
Salary levels and expectations are too high (many public school educated, unlike soccer or RL), for the crowds which turn up.
If you're getting 8k crowds in Castleford you can pay young fringe players minimum wage.
You can't in West London.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/consumer/survey-results/daily/2023/05/30/adad6/1
However I think his point here is valid. If Putin blew the dam - and the evidence points that way - it suggests he is prepared to keep escalating - and there aren’t many further steps he can take before he reaches the nuclear level
That doesn’t mean a bomb. Could be an “accident” at ZPP
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/scottish-independence-referendum-westminster-voting-intention-3-5-june-2023/
Labour won't know what's hit them....
You say "if Putin blew the dam", but a similar conclusion follows from "if Zelensky blew the dam".
It could be that both of these f*cking nutters probably with very short penises are pushing the world in the same direction.
(Yes I have started drinking again under Armageddo-stress after many years of quiet abstention.)
Much like Labour in 2010, they have been in government for too long and there is a real appetite for a change now.
His party is insanely woke and green and will be quite unpopular with many people for that reason. He can ride an anti Tory tide for a while but then the voters will sense the lunacy of Labour on everything from trans to net zero
Big problems ahead
Blowing up dams is specifically a Bad Action in International law.
If that's the best Rishi can offer he best go for a March election before people see the reality in their April Pay packet.
Greenism's origins are not exactly on the left... It's a total spook-up to act as if they are.
Blowing up a dam to slow an invading army would not be unlawful. Nor would it be unlawful for Ukraine to do so, if it gave them some strategic advantage, which was proportionate to the harm caused.
And August 3rd through to August 11th.
Even the average dinosaur had a more rapid and coherent thought process.
Was somewhat after WWII
https://time.com/6285314/ukraine-dam-destruction-water-war-essay/
Most of the water supply was used for industry and agriculture.