politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ukip get to within just 2 points of the Tories in new Surva

antifrank said:

And they can go screw themselves.

There's a Bill to legalise such behaviour???

That email is a mistake.

You either fire the guy and move on or pretend it never happened and hope the issue drops. As usual with Cameron he has picked the worst of both worlds.

TheScreamingEagles said:

@Antifrank

The tory party is in a febrile state.

What might push Cameron out/a confidence vote is polling that shows say Boris winning a majority if he was leader/the Tories polling in first place if Boris was leader.

Nadine's final gift to Cameron would be stand down as an MP for Boris and Nigel announcing UKIP won't contest the by-election.

The other trigger maybe if UKIP win a by-election in a Tory held seat.

The Tory party won't allow Cameron to be Honorius as the UKIPvisigoths sack Rome/The Tory Party.

Aren't the EU the Visigoths? They sacked Brussels when Maastricht came into force?

JosiasJessop said:

Off-topic:

What looked suspiciously like a Black Hawk helicopter just flew at almost roof-skimming height over our village. I've seen several in recent months, but this was by far the nearest and lowest.

They're flying west-east or east-west, so I assume it might be something to do with Cambridge airport / Marshalls Aerospace. We don't have any in the UK military (*); does anyone have any idea what they're doing disturbing me from drinking a rather cheap but drinkable red wine?

Room-shaking good!

On-topic:
I rarely comment on polls, but this is a humdinger. I'd be tempted to vote for UKIP under certain circumstances, except a local representative on PB has said they don't want my vote. :-(

(*) Assuming I am right and they are Black Hawks.

Well, I didn't see any Black Hawks, but I did see a Dakota (C-47) fly over North Weald yesterday!

another_richard said:

Clegg has plunged new depths of deceit.

He's in favour of heterosexual civil partnerships but votes against them.

He's in favour of EU referenda but votes against them.

He opposes tuition fee increases but votes for them.

Why should anyone believe anything Clegg says ?

You are very disgruntled today, ar.

You didn't hook your ball out of bounds at the Double Trouble did you?

antifrank said:

@SeanT I suggest you go away and learn the concept of a majority. Neither 36% nor 20% constitutes a majority. The 20% who actually care passionately about this do constitute a tiny minority. And they also constitute cretinous bigots. Ergo, my post is correct. And they can go screw themselves.

I'd say the country's leading cretinous bigot is Cameron.

Aside from the obvious Etonian bigotry and metropolitan bigotry he's now in favour of discriminating against heterosexuals re civil contracts.

The cretinous is also obvious from the political disaster he is presiding over.

It feels like this is genuinely a dangerous time for Cameron.

another_richard said:

Clegg has plunged new depths of deceit.

He's in favour of heterosexual civil partnerships but votes against them.

He's in favour of EU referenda but votes against them.

He opposes tuition fee increases but votes for them.

Why should anyone believe anything Clegg says ?

Good post Richard.

Tebbit on Howe
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/normantebbit/100217757/geoffrey-howe-did-for-margaret-thatcher-now-david-cameron-is-in-his-sights/?fb

Another way of looking at this poll:

"Our family's always voted Conservative etc, etc" 24%
Thinking for themselves 22%

How long does the dam hold ?

I don't know but the Cameroons are attacking it with sledgehammers.

SeanT said:

Peter Kellner agrees with me on gay marriage. No one really cares, it's not winning any votes, and it makes the Tories look horribly divided and cranky:

"As a result, Cameron is in the worst possible place, being thought to fight a battle that few people think matters that much, for reasons that few people respect, and reinforcing his party's reputation for division. These things are damaging his political prospects far more than his backing for a reasonably popular change to the law is boosting it."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/may/20/gay-marriage-not-vote-winner-tories

Whatever you think of Cameron, he is quite impressively crap at politics.

Quite bizarre really. Given he should be heading in to some good news as the economy recovers, but he will be incapable of exploiting the headlines if he doesn't get a grip.

@JosiasJessop

Deninitely was the BBMF Dakota. Here's a pic:

http://t.co/1gy1gCL86m

tim said:

@GdnPolitics: Senior Tories to warn No 10 of declining confidence in David Cameron http://t.co/jAkVLowdXS

Declining confidence in all 3 party leaders,up there with the worst 3 leaders who have led all 3 parties.

No one noticed with all this bad publicity on the tories,labour still fall back in the latest poll,these party leaders are a joke.

Why couldn't we have salmond as labour leader and farage as tory leader,our politics might not be in trouble as it is now.

The real question is the long term damage that Cameron is doing to the Tories by destroying their membership base. If they keep losing members they will struggle for decades to come.

If the Australian Labor Party can cut the aid budget to prioritise getting the deficit, why can't the British Conservative Party?

http://www.couriermail.com.au/federal-election/foreign-aid-to-take-budget-hit/story-fnho52jo-1226640827192

This is all starting to resemble the last few weeks of IDS' leadership.

When, just over a year ago, ICM published a poll which showed that most Conservative voters from 2010 opposed gay marriage, I warned that this issue would cause problems for Cameron. And, so it has proved. It's been the gift that keeps giving for UKIP.

Tykejohnno said:

IOS said:

The real question is the long term damage that Cameron is doing to the Tories by destroying their membership base. If they keep losing members they will struggle for decades to come.

I said last week,how long before ukip/tory cross over in the polls,at the time,I meant it as a joke ;-)

Before the DK adjustments, Conservatives & UKIP were tied on 23% in this poll.

https://twitter.com/DamianSurvation/status/336538792913666048

AstuteofDenmark - Agree entirely, every department should have had to face the same cuts, including overseas aid, and non-frontline health and education, instead some departments like local government, justice and defence and culture are being slashed to the bone while the ring-fenced departments get off almost scot free!

anotherDave said:

Tykejohnno said:

IOS said:

The real question is the long term damage that Cameron is doing to the Tories by destroying their membership base. If they keep losing members they will struggle for decades to come.

I said last week,how long before ukip/tory cross over in the polls,at the time,I meant it as a joke ;-)

Before the DK adjustments, Conservatives & UKIP were tied on 23% in this poll.

https://twitter.com/DamianSurvation/status/336538792913666048

It would be even more funny if ukip started to get close to labour in the polls ;-)

Cameron isn't yet odds on I would say to go. But I think he is one big cock up away from going. He cannot afford another swivel eyed episode.

Cross over could also do for him as well.

As has been pointed out the split between left and right leaning political parties is now 46: 46. Yet a few months ago left-leaning parties (Lib Dems + Labour) held a substantial majority over the right/ centre right.

So: has there been a substantial switch to the right in British politics over the last few months, or is it just the right-right lib dems defecting to UKIP whilst the left-left ones are holding to the party?

And Ben Brogan has been one of Camerons allies until recently.

Could things be all over for Cameron so quickly.

Alanbrooke said:

Sean_F said:

This is all starting to resemble the last few weeks of IDS' leadership.

When, just over a year ago, ICM published a poll which showed that most Conservative voters from 2010 opposed gay marriage, I warned that this issue would cause problems for Cameron. And, so it has proved. It's been the gift that keeps giving for UKIP.

part of the problem on gay marriage is that it gives the impression Cameron is spending his time on a "nice to do" while the essentials are being ignored.

The impression has always been that Cameron has time to spend on things he wants to do but isn't interested in more important but harder things.

Ditto Osborne - remember his White House jolly instead of Budget preparation.

Likewise there is always money available for Cameron's pet projects or for Cameron to throw at political problems ot for Cameron to hand out at international meetings.

The Cameroons behave like spoilt brat dilettantes playing puerile politcal games.

And when its all gone wrong they'll have their tantrum and then walk away to another piece of fun while the adults have to clear up their mess.

Just looking at a twitter exchange between Rentoul and Survation... if the fieldwork for the poll was 17-18th May and the loongate story broke the evening (?) of the 17th... how much of the polling would have been done before the loons story broke and how much after?

This comment comes from UKPR:

" People are often using the SDP-Labour analogy when discussing UKIP and its effect on the Tory party….I’m starting to think whether a more apt comparison might be the UUP and the DUP.

There seems a growing risk that the considerable working class / lower middle class section of Tory support – the famous C2s – simply breaks away for good, leaving a much smaller and much more elitist rump of Tory voters concentrated in the upmarket stockbroker belts of the home counties. Just as happened when the UUP permanently lost its working class support to the DUP en masse shortly after the Good Friday Agreement. "

I'd be interested on what Sean Fear thinks of the possibility.

Great for UKIP, dire for the Conservatives.

But remember ICM has the blues just 3 points off of Labour.

Another Richard, great minds think alike. Unlike the DUP, potential UKIp growth is not limited by religious affiliation. UKIP can win socially conservative left wing voters that the Conservatives can't reach.

@Sean_F @another_richard

But on the fundamental question the DUP eventually turned into the UUP so you might ask what the point of it all was...

Socrates said:

@Tykejohnno

The Conservative Party was founded in 1834, or 1912, depending on your point of view.

I said tory ;-) knock the party off then we be alright ;-)

Sean_F said:

Another Richard, great minds think alike. Unlike the DUP, potential UKIp growth is not limited by religious affiliation. UKIP can win socially conservative left wing voters that the Conservatives can't reach.

It wasn't actually a comment made by me but I agree with it.

I don't think the Cameroons understand how much of the Conservative vote is either working class social conservative or working class anti-Labour. The Cameroons are risking losing all of this with the way they're behaving. Perhaps they don't even want these sorts of voters ?

Another round of defence cuts while overseas aid is protected would put the icing on the cake.

surbiton said:

Sean_F said:

Another Richard, great minds think alike. Unlike the DUP, potential UKIp growth is not limited by religious affiliation. UKIP can win socially conservative left wing voters that the Conservatives can't reach.

UKIP is basking currently with a lot of attention. Sooner rather than later, more detailed attention will be given. Policies ? [ er, what is that ? ], personalities. Something like "fruitcakes" will emerge, plenty of them. Many of them, proud r_____s.

A Labour supporter like yourself ( when you're not voting LibDem ) is in no position to criticise anyone about lack of policies . What does ruthless EdM stand for apart from EdM's vulgar ambition ?

anotherDave said:

Socrates said:

anotherDave said:

HYUFD said:

AstuteofDenmark - Agree entirely, every department should have had to face the same cuts, including overseas aid, and non-frontline health and education, instead some departments like local government, justice and defence and culture are being slashed to the bone while the ring-fenced departments get off almost scot free!

No. Non-essential departments should have been hit harder/scrapped altogether. Foreign Aid being one.

What's your definition of essential? Getting anti-malaria nets I would imagine is pretty damn essential to people that depend on them. The return on investment in international aid is so much higher than money spent domestically, and will create consumer markets for UK companies for our future economic health.

British voters should only be taxed for services to british people/residents. British people can and do donate to foreign charities, but it is not a necessary function of the British government.

The sole responsibility of the British government is the welfare of the British people.

And done right, foreign aid is an investment in our future. I'd rather sort a problem in advance before it becomes a threat to our security

Neil said:

@Sean_F @another_richard

But on the fundamental question the DUP eventually turned into the UUP so you might ask what the point of it all was...

True and ultimately we're going to have a dominant party on the centre-right in the UK.

But the process of change could be lengthy, highly traumatic and have serious knock on effects.

Socrates said:

Tykejohnno said:

Socrates said:

@Tykejohnno

The Conservative Party was founded in 1834, or 1912, depending on your point of view.

I said tory ;-) knock the party off then we be alright ;-)

The Conservative Party originated in the Whigs, not the Tories. It's like claiming the 1970s IRA was the same thing as the independence movement in the early 20th century.

I go for the Pittites side of the conservative party ;-)

Socrates said:

Tykejohnno said:

Socrates said:

@Tykejohnno

The Conservative Party was founded in 1834, or 1912, depending on your point of view.

I said tory ;-) knock the party off then we be alright ;-)

The Conservative Party originated in the Whigs, not the Tories. It's like claiming the 1970s IRA was the same thing as the independence movement in the early 20th century.

You better get on and inform every person who has ever colloquially referred to the Conservatives as the Tories in the last 170 years then, if you're going to quibble terminology.

Socrates said:

Tebbit is posting some barmy stuff about gay marriage, such as hypothesising fathers can marry their sons to skip inheritance tax. I assume he realises it would be just as impossible as fathers marrying their daughters currently.

I find it a rather amazing thing that some people believe that others are so desperate for tax advantage they would do such a thing. There's crazy people out there, but it would never be an en masse issue. Does tax issues really impact on people getting married? Maybe I'm a romantic after all, because that sounds barmy.

surbiton said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

surbiton said:

Sean_F said:

Another Richard, great minds think alike. Unlike the DUP, potential UKIp growth is not limited by religious affiliation. UKIP can win socially conservative left wing voters that the Conservatives can't reach.

UKIP is basking currently with a lot of attention. Sooner rather than later, more detailed attention will be given. Policies ? [ er, what is that ? ], personalities. Something like "fruitcakes" will emerge, plenty of them. Many of them, proud r_____s.

A Labour supporter like yourself ( when you're not voting LibDem ) is in no position to criticise anyone about lack of policies . What does ruthless EdM stand for apart from EdM's vulgar ambition ?

Except, currently not having a policy is itself a policy. A very good one too ! Why show all the goodies now ?

EdM is your Father Christmas then. It would be cruel to tell you the truth about EdM and Father Christmas since they both cheer you up.

Charles - Maybe, but we have been giving aid to India until recently despite its growth and why should overseas aid not have to face the same cuts as the armed forces, libraries, social services, the police, legal aid, welfare etc?

One thing that has struck me as strange about this evening is that no one has yet apparently made the most obvious point about this poll which is it might just be a very strange outlier.

I can only assume that people are accepting it because it matches their preconceptions of the current narrative. The interesting point is that the validity of that narrative seems to be being accepted by almost everyone right across the board irrespective of party. The only difference between the sides appears to be in the way people explain the narrative or defend against it based on their own allegiances.

Since it is the party I support which does best out of this poll I think it is only fair that I point out that this might just be a rogue (for all that I want to agree with it)

Why are people treating a Survation poll seriously?