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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ukip get to within just 2 points of the Tories in new Surva

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  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,962
    antifrank said:

    And they can go screw themselves.

    There's a Bill to legalise such behaviour???

    :)
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    @SeanT

    "You say a "Tiny minority of Britons opposes gay marriage"? This YouGov poll says 36% of Britons oppose gay marriage, 20% of them strongly."

    Does that make 64% support gay marriage ?

  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    That email is a mistake.

    You either fire the guy and move on or pretend it never happened and hope the issue drops. As usual with Cameron he has picked the worst of both worlds.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,658
    Mick_Pork said:

    I've not read through today's comments but I suspect tim and mick have had plenty to say about today's contemptible goings on.

    I made a few comments this morning and now I'm making some tonight. Are you the new PB post count tsar or something? Maybe you should direct your attention to those other than me and Tim if you seriously think we're the only ones who post much on here?
    No need to get touchy Mick.

    I was merely imagining what you and tim would have been saying, I dare say you were viewing the sorry shambles with as much contempt as I was.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,962

    @Antifrank

    The tory party is in a febrile state.

    What might push Cameron out/a confidence vote is polling that shows say Boris winning a majority if he was leader/the Tories polling in first place if Boris was leader.

    Nadine's final gift to Cameron would be stand down as an MP for Boris and Nigel announcing UKIP won't contest the by-election.

    The other trigger maybe if UKIP win a by-election in a Tory held seat.

    The Tory party won't allow Cameron to be Honorius as the UKIPvisigoths sack Rome/The Tory Party.

    Aren't the EU the Visigoths? They sacked Brussels when Maastricht came into force?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Did anyone see Lord Owen's piece in the Evening Standard today? He called for the UK's renegotiation to call for a restructured EEA, albeit with full voting rights and with limits on free movement of labour. I think it's fanciful, but if we could get that, I'd support staying in it, regardless of what it was called.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,962

    Off-topic:

    What looked suspiciously like a Black Hawk helicopter just flew at almost roof-skimming height over our village. I've seen several in recent months, but this was by far the nearest and lowest.

    They're flying west-east or east-west, so I assume it might be something to do with Cambridge airport / Marshalls Aerospace. We don't have any in the UK military (*); does anyone have any idea what they're doing disturbing me from drinking a rather cheap but drinkable red wine?

    Room-shaking good!

    On-topic:
    I rarely comment on polls, but this is a humdinger. I'd be tempted to vote for UKIP under certain circumstances, except a local representative on PB has said they don't want my vote. :-(

    (*) Assuming I am right and they are Black Hawks.

    Well, I didn't see any Black Hawks, but I did see a Dakota (C-47) fly over North Weald yesterday!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,441

    antifrank said:

    And they can go screw themselves.

    There's a Bill to legalise such behaviour???

    :)
    They must be very well hung.
  • Clegg has plunged new depths of deceit.

    He's in favour of heterosexual civil partnerships but votes against them.

    He's in favour of EU referenda but votes against them.

    He opposes tuition fee increases but votes for them.

    Why should anyone believe anything Clegg says ?

    You are very disgruntled today, ar.

    You didn't hook your ball out of bounds at the Double Trouble did you?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,969
    edited May 2013
    antifrank said:

    @SeanT I suggest you go away and learn the concept of a majority.

    Likewise for the definition of tiny, perhaps?
  • RodCrosby said:
    Would the Conservatives EU grouping have enough MEPs without those Conservatives?

    Well unless there were a number of other losses across Europe. The Tories only make up around half the ECR (which has around 54 MEPs in total) so their losses alone would not bring them close to falling below the threshold to form a group.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Parliament_election,_2009
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    SeanT said:

    I am repelled by all the time being wasted on it

    Funnily enough those MPs who most often complain about the time being wasted on this were arguing against the programme motion limiting the time to debate the issue!
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,658
    antifrank said:

    @SeanT I suggest you go away and learn the concept of a majority. Neither 36% nor 20% constitutes a majority. The 20% who actually care passionately about this do constitute a tiny minority. And they also constitute cretinous bigots. Ergo, my post is correct. And they can go screw themselves.

    I'd say the country's leading cretinous bigot is Cameron.

    Aside from the obvious Etonian bigotry and metropolitan bigotry he's now in favour of discriminating against heterosexuals re civil contracts.

    The cretinous is also obvious from the political disaster he is presiding over.
  • Neil said:

    SeanT said:

    I am repelled by all the time being wasted on it

    Funnily enough those MPs who most often complain about the time being wasted on this were arguing against the programme motion limiting the time to debate the issue!
    I don't think Sean is opposed to gay marriage, Neil.

    My impression is that he is just ANGRY.

  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    It feels like this is genuinely a dangerous time for Cameron.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    SeanT said:

    antifrank said:

    @SeanT I suggest you go away and learn the concept of a majority. Neither 36% nor 20% constitutes a majority. The 20% who actually care passionately about this do constitute a tiny minority. And they also constitute cretinous bigots. Ergo, my post is correct. And they can go screw themselves.

    So a modest law-abiding woman in her 60s, who is a member of the Church of England, who is happy to allow civil partnerships, but believes, for religious reasons, that marriage is for men and women only, is a "cretinous bigot"? Really?

    Listen to yourself. Quite disgusting snobbery. Sneering "liberals" like you are the reason the Tories are falling apart.
    cretinous bigots? Or swivel eyed loons?

    Oooh! Handbags!



  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Clegg has plunged new depths of deceit.

    He's in favour of heterosexual civil partnerships but votes against them.

    He's in favour of EU referenda but votes against them.

    He opposes tuition fee increases but votes for them.

    Why should anyone believe anything Clegg says ?

    Good post Richard.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,962
    edited May 2013

    Off-topic:

    What looked suspiciously like a Black Hawk helicopter just flew at almost roof-skimming height over our village. I've seen several in recent months, but this was by far the nearest and lowest.

    They're flying west-east or east-west, so I assume it might be something to do with Cambridge airport / Marshalls Aerospace. We don't have any in the UK military (*); does anyone have any idea what they're doing disturbing me from drinking a rather cheap but drinkable red wine?

    Room-shaking good!

    On-topic:
    I rarely comment on polls, but this is a humdinger. I'd be tempted to vote for UKIP under certain circumstances, except a local representative on PB has said they don't want my vote. :-(

    (*) Assuming I am right and they are Black Hawks.

    Well, I didn't see any Black Hawks, but I did see a Dakota (C-47) fly over North Weald yesterday!
    Was it the Battle of Britain Memorial Flight Dakota?

    http://www.raf.mod.uk/bbmf/theaircraft/dakota.cfm

    A couple of years ago I got a brilliant view of it doing touch-and-go landings at RAF Waddington whilst I was walking the Viking Way.

    The best experience was seeing a couple of Apaches doing touch-and-gos on Salisbury Plain. They were about a hundred yards away, and when I waved the front-mounted gun pointed at me as the pilot looked in my direction. Cool. ;-)

    The saddest was seeing the memorial to the crashed Chinook at the Mull of Kintyre. About a mile north, three was a solitary, long piece of riveted aluminium, presumably from one of the planes that crashed on the Mull. Very sad. (see profile picture)
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Good evening all:
    Just out of a nice long bath; a 22% for UKIP relaxing bath.
    I can tell SeanT that UKIP policy is no alliances with any party, leastwise the Tories. Local alliances here and there, good. General alliance bad. We would have a mass desertion from UKIP if it were any otherway.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,658

    Clegg has plunged new depths of deceit.

    He's in favour of heterosexual civil partnerships but votes against them.

    He's in favour of EU referenda but votes against them.

    He opposes tuition fee increases but votes for them.

    Why should anyone believe anything Clegg says ?

    You are very disgruntled today, ar.

    You didn't hook your ball out of bounds at the Double Trouble did you?
    Been too busy working.

    But as I'm pretty competant at my job I tend to get disgruntled with those who aren't at theirs.

    And there's no shortage of those in politics.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Table 20

    UKIP top the poll in 'east of england', and 'south east'. I assume this means they win Westminster seats.

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Survation_May_Voting_Intentions_Poll_Tables_20th-May.pdf
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,658
    Another way of looking at this poll:

    "Our family's always voted Conservative etc, etc" 24%
    Thinking for themselves 22%

    How long does the dam hold ?

    I don't know but the Cameroons are attacking it with sledgehammers.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,441
    SeanT said:

    Peter Kellner agrees with me on gay marriage. No one really cares, it's not winning any votes, and it makes the Tories look horribly divided and cranky:

    "As a result, Cameron is in the worst possible place, being thought to fight a battle that few people think matters that much, for reasons that few people respect, and reinforcing his party's reputation for division. These things are damaging his political prospects far more than his backing for a reasonably popular change to the law is boosting it."

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/may/20/gay-marriage-not-vote-winner-tories

    Whatever you think of Cameron, he is quite impressively crap at politics.

    Quite bizarre really. Given he should be heading in to some good news as the economy recovers, but he will be incapable of exploiting the headlines if he doesn't get a grip.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    @SeanT:

    "That's not the point. Gay marriage is, supposedly, Cameron's cackhanded attempt to detox the Tories. The problem is it has achieved exactly the opposite. He has not gained a single vote with this farce, yet he has alienated millions (many of them loyal law abiding Brits, with sincere religious views - not screaming bigots)."

    Spot on, Sean !!



  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,962
    edited May 2013
    @JosiasJessop

    Deninitely was the BBMF Dakota. Here's a pic:

    http://t.co/1gy1gCL86m
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,395
    In Canada Harper's aide quits after scandal
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-22592273
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited May 2013
    tim said:

    @GdnPolitics: Senior Tories to warn No 10 of declining confidence in David Cameron http://t.co/jAkVLowdXS

    Declining confidence in all 3 party leaders,up there with the worst 3 leaders who have led all 3 parties.

    No one noticed with all this bad publicity on the tories,labour still fall back in the latest poll,these party leaders are a joke.

    Why couldn't we have salmond as labour leader and farage as tory leader,our politics might not be in trouble as it is now.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    Another way of looking at this poll:

    "Our family's always voted Conservative etc, etc" 24%
    Thinking for themselves 22%

    How long does the dam hold ?

    I don't know but the Cameroons are attacking it with sledgehammers.

    I think you got it the wrong way round: sledgehammers are attacking the Cameroons, ;)
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    The real question is the long term damage that Cameron is doing to the Tories by destroying their membership base. If they keep losing members they will struggle for decades to come.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Another way of looking at this poll:

    "Our family's always voted Conservative etc, etc" 24%
    Thinking for themselves 22%

    How long does the dam hold ?

    I don't know but the Cameroons are attacking it with sledgehammers.

    UKIP voters are not all ex-Conservatives.

    In this poll, I think 46% of UKIP support is 2010 Con.

  • Table 20

    UKIP top the poll in 'east of england', and 'south east'. I assume this means they win Westminster seats.

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Survation_May_Voting_Intentions_Poll_Tables_20th-May.pdf

    It doesn't necessarily suggest anything of the sort. However if the County Council election votes shares in constituencies were repeated in the general election then according to Survation UKIP would win ten* seats most of which were in the South East or East Of England

    http://survation.com/2013/05/ukip-won-in-8-westminster-constituencies-last-thursday/

    *Survation found two more since the initial analysis
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    I don't think this shambles will be doing much for swinging opinion behind a ten grand pay rise.
  • If the Australian Labor Party can cut the aid budget to prioritise getting the deficit, why can't the British Conservative Party?

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/federal-election/foreign-aid-to-take-budget-hit/story-fnho52jo-1226640827192
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,962

    @JosiasJessop

    Deninitely was the BBMF Dakota. Here's a pic:

    http://t.co/1gy1gCL86m

    That's the beastie (there;s only one of them). AS we;re near Duxford we get a fair few good planes around here, but the Black Hawks weren't anything to do with Duxford as far as I can tell - wrong direction, wrong time.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,412
    This is all starting to resemble the last few weeks of IDS' leadership.

    When, just over a year ago, ICM published a poll which showed that most Conservative voters from 2010 opposed gay marriage, I warned that this issue would cause problems for Cameron. And, so it has proved. It's been the gift that keeps giving for UKIP.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    IOS said:

    The real question is the long term damage that Cameron is doing to the Tories by destroying their membership base. If they keep losing members they will struggle for decades to come.

    I said last week,how long before ukip/tory cross over in the polls,at the time,I meant it as a joke ;-)

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    IOS said:

    The real question is the long term damage that Cameron is doing to the Tories by destroying their membership base. If they keep losing members they will struggle for decades to come.

    I said last week,how long before ukip/tory cross over in the polls,at the time,I meant it as a joke ;-)

    Before the DK adjustments, Conservatives & UKIP were tied on 23% in this poll.

    https://twitter.com/DamianSurvation/status/336538792913666048
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,441
    edited May 2013
    Sean_F said:

    This is all starting to resemble the last few weeks of IDS' leadership.

    When, just over a year ago, ICM published a poll which showed that most Conservative voters from 2010 opposed gay marriage, I warned that this issue would cause problems for Cameron. And, so it has proved. It's been the gift that keeps giving for UKIP.

    part of the problem on gay marriage is that it gives the impression Cameron is spending his time on a "nice to do" while the essentials are being ignored.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,395
    AstuteofDenmark - Agree entirely, every department should have had to face the same cuts, including overseas aid, and non-frontline health and education, instead some departments like local government, justice and defence and culture are being slashed to the bone while the ring-fenced departments get off almost scot free!
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    HYUFD said:

    AstuteofDenmark - Agree entirely, every department should have had to face the same cuts, including overseas aid, and non-frontline health and education, instead some departments like local government, justice and defence and culture are being slashed to the bone while the ring-fenced departments get off almost scot free!

    No. Non-essential departments should have been hit harder/scrapped altogether. Foreign Aid being one.

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    IOS said:

    The real question is the long term damage that Cameron is doing to the Tories by destroying their membership base. If they keep losing members they will struggle for decades to come.

    I said last week,how long before ukip/tory cross over in the polls,at the time,I meant it as a joke ;-)

    Before the DK adjustments, Conservatives & UKIP were tied on 23% in this poll.

    https://twitter.com/DamianSurvation/status/336538792913666048
    It would be even more funny if ukip started to get close to labour in the polls ;-)

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    There is not a lot of gruntle going around....voters in general don't like any of the traditional parties (ex-Scotland) - so UKIP are prospering - back bench Tory MPs don't like their out of touch leadership, so they are kicking off, and Ed's underwhelming polling performance has Labour MPs- loyal to destruction - shifting uneasily in their seats. LibDems are still anaesthetised by the novelty of government - but that too may not last. Yet, somehow, by Autumn, I think our minds will be on other matters...
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Cameron isn't yet odds on I would say to go. But I think he is one big cock up away from going. He cannot afford another swivel eyed episode.

    Cross over could also do for him as well.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Ben Brogan:
    "[Mr Cameron] suffers because he is not very good at politics. You can tell by the legacy issues he must contend with: he failed to win an election against one of Britain’s least popular prime ministers, then failed to secure his party’s agreement for Coalition; what patronage he has he uses, unwisely, to reward friends; he has followed, rather than led, on Europe; and, as we witnessed last night, he is in the final throes of an utterly avoidable confrontation with his own side over gay marriage."

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/benedictbrogan/100217929/cameron-shouldnt-blame-our-rowdy-press-for-his-own-failings/
  • Arthur_PennyArthur_Penny Posts: 198
    As has been pointed out the split between left and right leaning political parties is now 46: 46. Yet a few months ago left-leaning parties (Lib Dems + Labour) held a substantial majority over the right/ centre right.

    So: has there been a substantial switch to the right in British politics over the last few months, or is it just the right-right lib dems defecting to UKIP whilst the left-left ones are holding to the party?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Clegg has plunged new depths of deceit.

    He's in favour of heterosexual civil partnerships but votes against them.

    He's in favour of EU referenda but votes against them.

    He opposes tuition fee increases but votes for them.

    Why should anyone believe anything Clegg says ?

    Good post Richard.
    Don't forget boundary changes.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Carola said:
    Another load of Cammo insincerity and claptrap.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    HYUFD said:

    AstuteofDenmark - Agree entirely, every department should have had to face the same cuts, including overseas aid, and non-frontline health and education, instead some departments like local government, justice and defence and culture are being slashed to the bone while the ring-fenced departments get off almost scot free!

    No. Non-essential departments should have been hit harder/scrapped altogether. Foreign Aid being one.

    What's your definition of essential? Getting anti-malaria nets I would imagine is pretty damn essential to people that depend on them. The return on investment in international aid is so much higher than money spent domestically, and will create consumer markets for UK companies for our future economic health.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    And Ben Brogan has been one of Camerons allies until recently.

    Could things be all over for Cameron so quickly.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,412
    Arthur, overall, the right wing vote share is up about 6% on 2010, showing that UKIP are pulling in support from Labour, Lib Dems, non-voters, in addition to Cons.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,658

    Sean_F said:

    This is all starting to resemble the last few weeks of IDS' leadership.

    When, just over a year ago, ICM published a poll which showed that most Conservative voters from 2010 opposed gay marriage, I warned that this issue would cause problems for Cameron. And, so it has proved. It's been the gift that keeps giving for UKIP.

    part of the problem on gay marriage is that it gives the impression Cameron is spending his time on a "nice to do" while the essentials are being ignored.
    The impression has always been that Cameron has time to spend on things he wants to do but isn't interested in more important but harder things.

    Ditto Osborne - remember his White House jolly instead of Budget preparation.

    Likewise there is always money available for Cameron's pet projects or for Cameron to throw at political problems ot for Cameron to hand out at international meetings.

    The Cameroons behave like spoilt brat dilettantes playing puerile politcal games.

    And when its all gone wrong they'll have their tantrum and then walk away to another piece of fun while the adults have to clear up their mess.
  • NextNext Posts: 826
    tim said:

    "He suffers because he is not very good at politics."

    Oh dear, the penny is dropping.

    The stupid point is, despite your smearing, this government has done many things right.

    But then having won battles, they fire the celebratory AK47s into their own feet.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Just looking at a twitter exchange between Rentoul and Survation... if the fieldwork for the poll was 17-18th May and the loongate story broke the evening (?) of the 17th... how much of the polling would have been done before the loons story broke and how much after?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,395
    Socrates - Indeed, but foreign aid to Pakistan and India is not essential, nor is excess bureaucracy in health and education. All that could have been cut while ensuring less of the burden was beared by essential services like the armed forces who defend the realm, libraries and social services in local government and the police and legal aid, and you could also add benefits to OAPS to the welfare cuts too! 20-25% cuts across the board is what I would have done, not 30-35% cuts for some departments and no cuts for a select few
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,658
    This comment comes from UKPR:

    " People are often using the SDP-Labour analogy when discussing UKIP and its effect on the Tory party….I’m starting to think whether a more apt comparison might be the UUP and the DUP.

    There seems a growing risk that the considerable working class / lower middle class section of Tory support – the famous C2s – simply breaks away for good, leaving a much smaller and much more elitist rump of Tory voters concentrated in the upmarket stockbroker belts of the home counties. Just as happened when the UUP permanently lost its working class support to the DUP en masse shortly after the Good Friday Agreement. "

    I'd be interested on what Sean Fear thinks of the possibility.


  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Carola said:

    Just looking at a twitter exchange between Rentoul and Survation... if the fieldwork for the poll was 17-18th May and the loongate story broke the evening (?) of the 17th... how much of the polling would have been done before the loons story broke and how much after?

    So the Conservatives have further to fall? What larks!

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,850
    Great for UKIP, dire for the Conservatives.

    But remember ICM has the blues just 3 points off of Labour.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited May 2013
    Socrates said:

    HYUFD said:

    AstuteofDenmark - Agree entirely, every department should have had to face the same cuts, including overseas aid, and non-frontline health and education, instead some departments like local government, justice and defence and culture are being slashed to the bone while the ring-fenced departments get off almost scot free!

    No. Non-essential departments should have been hit harder/scrapped altogether. Foreign Aid being one.

    What's your definition of essential? Getting anti-malaria nets I would imagine is pretty damn essential to people that depend on them. The return on investment in international aid is so much higher than money spent domestically, and will create consumer markets for UK companies for our future economic health.
    British voters should only be taxed for services to british people/residents. British people can and do donate to foreign charities, but it is not a necessary function of the British government.

    The sole responsibility of the British government is the welfare of the British people.

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    HYUFD said:

    Socrates - Indeed, but foreign aid to Pakistan and India is not essential, nor is excess bureaucracy in health and education. All that could have been cut while ensuring less of the burden was beared by essential services like the armed forces who defend the realm, libraries and social services in local government and the police and legal aid, and you could also add benefits to OAPS to the welfare cuts too! 20-25% cuts across the board is what I would have done, not 30-35% cuts for some departments and no cuts for a select few

    Frankly, when leading Pakistani politicians are blaming us for assassinations caused by their own screwed up political culture, I don't see why we should contribute to Pakistan at all.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,395
    edited May 2013
    AnotherRichard - It also happened to the Tories in Canada when they were overtaken by Reform and in France some polls have showed Le Pen would beat Fillon or Cope in the first round in 2017 if Sarko is not a candidate. Perot also beat Bush Snr in several states in 1992
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,412
    Another Richard, great minds think alike. Unlike the DUP, potential UKIp growth is not limited by religious affiliation. UKIP can win socially conservative left wing voters that the Conservatives can't reach.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    Tebbit is posting some barmy stuff about gay marriage, such as hypothesising fathers can marry their sons to skip inheritance tax. I assume he realises it would be just as impossible as fathers marrying their daughters currently.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Great for UKIP, dire for the Conservatives.

    But remember ICM has the blues just 3 points off of Labour.

    That was the "wisdom" index [ what people think will happen ] rather than a poll.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Camerons epitaph - The man who destroyed the three hundred year old tory party,napoleon couldn't do it,Hitler couldn't do it but the posh lad did ;-)
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited May 2013
    @Sean_F

    It shows just how horrendous the Conservative brand is. For all their sins, I don't blame it entirely on Cameron and Osborne - a big part of it much be down to the legacy of Thatcher, rightly or wrongly. If FPTP survives the next election, it much be imperative for the next Conservative leader to seek a merger with UKIP, and to get rid of the "Tory" name in the meantime.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,850
    Mr. Surbiton, do ICM themselves not highly regard the Wisdom Index compared to standard polling?

    We can cherry pick polls. This one is clearly bad for the Conservatives. The average is not that different to the recent standard (Labour ahead by circa 7pts, UKIP a little ahead of the Lib Dems).
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @Sean_F @another_richard

    But on the fundamental question the DUP eventually turned into the UUP so you might ask what the point of it all was...
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    edited May 2013
    @Tykejohnno

    The Conservative Party was founded in 1834, or 1912, depending on your point of view.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Sean_F said:

    Another Richard, great minds think alike. Unlike the DUP, potential UKIp growth is not limited by religious affiliation. UKIP can win socially conservative left wing voters that the Conservatives can't reach.

    UKIP is basking currently with a lot of attention. Sooner rather than later, more detailed attention will be given. Policies ? [ er, what is that ? ], personalities. Something like "fruitcakes" will emerge, plenty of them. Many of them, proud r_____s.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    @Socrates

    I look forward to Tebbit speaking about this in the Lords. The Commons has been disappointingly short on cuckoo speeches today. Here's hoping Willie McCrea lets loose shortly.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Socrates said:

    @Tykejohnno

    The Conservative Party was founded in 1834, or 1912, depending on your point of view.

    I said tory ;-) knock the party off then we be alright ;-)
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Mr. Surbiton, do ICM themselves not highly regard the Wisdom Index compared to standard polling?

    We can cherry pick polls. This one is clearly bad for the Conservatives. The average is not that different to the recent standard (Labour ahead by circa 7pts, UKIP a little ahead of the Lib Dems).

    Mr.Dancer. A poll ask people how they would vote ? It doesn't ask people how everyone else would vote. There is a difference. Perhaps, with all this swivel eye, you have not spotted it.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Socrates said:

    @Tykejohnno

    The Conservative Party was founded in 1834, or 1912, depending on your point of view.

    I said tory ;-) knock the party off then we be alright ;-)
    The Conservative Party originated in the Whigs, not the Tories. It's like claiming the 1970s IRA was the same thing as the independence movement in the early 20th century.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,962

    HYUFD said:

    AstuteofDenmark - Agree entirely, every department should have had to face the same cuts, including overseas aid, and non-frontline health and education, instead some departments like local government, justice and defence and culture are being slashed to the bone while the ring-fenced departments get off almost scot free!

    No. Non-essential departments should have been hit harder/scrapped altogether. Foreign Aid being one.

    Aid to India 300 million GBP p.a.
    "Aid" to the EU 18 BILLION GBP p.a.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,658
    Sean_F said:

    Another Richard, great minds think alike. Unlike the DUP, potential UKIp growth is not limited by religious affiliation. UKIP can win socially conservative left wing voters that the Conservatives can't reach.

    It wasn't actually a comment made by me but I agree with it.

    I don't think the Cameroons understand how much of the Conservative vote is either working class social conservative or working class anti-Labour. The Cameroons are risking losing all of this with the way they're behaving. Perhaps they don't even want these sorts of voters ?

    Another round of defence cuts while overseas aid is protected would put the icing on the cake.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited May 2013
    Socrates said:

    @Sean_F

    It shows just how horrendous the Conservative brand is. For all their sins, I don't blame it entirely on Cameron and Osborne - a big part of it much be down to the legacy of Thatcher, rightly or wrongly. If FPTP survives the next election, it much be imperative for the next Conservative leader to seek a merger with UKIP, and to get rid of the "Tory" name in the meantime.

    That's absolute rubbish. Back in the 1980s, when Mrs Thatcher was being so terrible and unpopular, she won her elections.

    She is repeatedly rated, in national polls, as the best post war PM. The recent polling, with Mrs Thatcher as a putative candidate, had her winning an election again today!



  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    surbiton said:

    Sean_F said:

    Another Richard, great minds think alike. Unlike the DUP, potential UKIp growth is not limited by religious affiliation. UKIP can win socially conservative left wing voters that the Conservatives can't reach.

    UKIP is basking currently with a lot of attention. Sooner rather than later, more detailed attention will be given. Policies ? [ er, what is that ? ], personalities. Something like "fruitcakes" will emerge, plenty of them. Many of them, proud r_____s.
    A Labour supporter like yourself ( when you're not voting LibDem ) is in no position to criticise anyone about lack of policies . What does ruthless EdM stand for apart from EdM's vulgar ambition ?

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,962
    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    @Tykejohnno

    The Conservative Party was founded in 1834, or 1912, depending on your point of view.

    I said tory ;-) knock the party off then we be alright ;-)
    The Conservative Party originated in the Whigs, not the Tories. It's like claiming the 1970s IRA was the same thing as the independence movement in the early 20th century.
    Sinn Fein of 1970 did have its root in the 1905 incarnation - via a couple of splits!
    1922 (Anti-Treaty/Pro-Treaty), 1927 (abstentionism) and 1970 (traditionalists v. Marxists) of course.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Socrates said:

    HYUFD said:

    AstuteofDenmark - Agree entirely, every department should have had to face the same cuts, including overseas aid, and non-frontline health and education, instead some departments like local government, justice and defence and culture are being slashed to the bone while the ring-fenced departments get off almost scot free!

    No. Non-essential departments should have been hit harder/scrapped altogether. Foreign Aid being one.

    What's your definition of essential? Getting anti-malaria nets I would imagine is pretty damn essential to people that depend on them. The return on investment in international aid is so much higher than money spent domestically, and will create consumer markets for UK companies for our future economic health.
    British voters should only be taxed for services to british people/residents. British people can and do donate to foreign charities, but it is not a necessary function of the British government.

    The sole responsibility of the British government is the welfare of the British people.

    And done right, foreign aid is an investment in our future. I'd rather sort a problem in advance before it becomes a threat to our security
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,850
    F1: if I remember I'll have the Monaco early discussion up tomorrow. Monaco's one of my least favourite circuits, but should be one of the easiest to follow on the radio.

    Watch out for the Mercedes in qualifying.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,658
    Neil said:

    @Sean_F @another_richard

    But on the fundamental question the DUP eventually turned into the UUP so you might ask what the point of it all was...

    True and ultimately we're going to have a dominant party on the centre-right in the UK.

    But the process of change could be lengthy, highly traumatic and have serious knock on effects.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    surbiton said:

    Sean_F said:

    Another Richard, great minds think alike. Unlike the DUP, potential UKIp growth is not limited by religious affiliation. UKIP can win socially conservative left wing voters that the Conservatives can't reach.

    UKIP is basking currently with a lot of attention. Sooner rather than later, more detailed attention will be given. Policies ? [ er, what is that ? ], personalities. Something like "fruitcakes" will emerge, plenty of them. Many of them, proud r_____s.
    A Labour supporter like yourself ( when you're not voting LibDem ) is in no position to criticise anyone about lack of policies . What does ruthless EdM stand for apart from EdM's vulgar ambition ?

    Except, currently not having a policy is itself a policy. A very good one too ! Why show all the goodies now ?
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    @Tykejohnno

    The Conservative Party was founded in 1834, or 1912, depending on your point of view.

    I said tory ;-) knock the party off then we be alright ;-)
    The Conservative Party originated in the Whigs, not the Tories. It's like claiming the 1970s IRA was the same thing as the independence movement in the early 20th century.
    I go for the Pittites side of the conservative party ;-)

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,237
    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    @Tykejohnno

    The Conservative Party was founded in 1834, or 1912, depending on your point of view.

    I said tory ;-) knock the party off then we be alright ;-)
    The Conservative Party originated in the Whigs, not the Tories. It's like claiming the 1970s IRA was the same thing as the independence movement in the early 20th century.
    You better get on and inform every person who has ever colloquially referred to the Conservatives as the Tories in the last 170 years then, if you're going to quibble terminology.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    HYUFD said:

    AstuteofDenmark - Agree entirely, every department should have had to face the same cuts, including overseas aid, and non-frontline health and education, instead some departments like local government, justice and defence and culture are being slashed to the bone while the ring-fenced departments get off almost scot free!

    No. Non-essential departments should have been hit harder/scrapped altogether. Foreign Aid being one.

    Aid to India 300 million GBP p.a.
    "Aid" to the EU 18 BILLION GBP p.a.
    Move leaving the EU up the to-do list. :-)

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,237
    Socrates said:

    Tebbit is posting some barmy stuff about gay marriage, such as hypothesising fathers can marry their sons to skip inheritance tax. I assume he realises it would be just as impossible as fathers marrying their daughters currently.

    I find it a rather amazing thing that some people believe that others are so desperate for tax advantage they would do such a thing. There's crazy people out there, but it would never be an en masse issue. Does tax issues really impact on people getting married? Maybe I'm a romantic after all, because that sounds barmy.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    I will have to take your leave for tonight. Before I go, I must congratulate my right of centre PB friends on securing your "centre-right" majority. Long may it continue.

    We must not, of course, forget our two friends: UKIP and FPTP.

    Goodnight !
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    Sean_F said:

    Another Richard, great minds think alike. Unlike the DUP, potential UKIp growth is not limited by religious affiliation. UKIP can win socially conservative left wing voters that the Conservatives can't reach.

    UKIP is basking currently with a lot of attention. Sooner rather than later, more detailed attention will be given. Policies ? [ er, what is that ? ], personalities. Something like "fruitcakes" will emerge, plenty of them. Many of them, proud r_____s.
    A Labour supporter like yourself ( when you're not voting LibDem ) is in no position to criticise anyone about lack of policies . What does ruthless EdM stand for apart from EdM's vulgar ambition ?

    Except, currently not having a policy is itself a policy. A very good one too ! Why show all the goodies now ?

    EdM is your Father Christmas then. It would be cruel to tell you the truth about EdM and Father Christmas since they both cheer you up.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,412
    Socrates, I think it pre-dates Thatcher. There are people who share a lot of right-wing views for whom voting against the Conservatives is something you imbibe with mother's milk. But, UKIP is not their old enemy. Overall, Thatcher did very well among working class voters.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,395
    Charles - Maybe, but we have been giving aid to India until recently despite its growth and why should overseas aid not have to face the same cuts as the armed forces, libraries, social services, the police, legal aid, welfare etc?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    "Survation’s last poll was at the end of April before the local elections, so changes are just as likely to be down to the local elections and the Conservative infighting over Europe as anything more recent."

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/7483
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,627
    One thing that has struck me as strange about this evening is that no one has yet apparently made the most obvious point about this poll which is it might just be a very strange outlier.

    I can only assume that people are accepting it because it matches their preconceptions of the current narrative. The interesting point is that the validity of that narrative seems to be being accepted by almost everyone right across the board irrespective of party. The only difference between the sides appears to be in the way people explain the narrative or defend against it based on their own allegiances.

    Since it is the party I support which does best out of this poll I think it is only fair that I point out that this might just be a rogue (for all that I want to agree with it)
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    tim said:

    In June 1982 Michael Foot managed 24%, Labours lowest under his leadership.

    What were the Tories on in June 1982 following the Falklands Victory ? More than 35 % ?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    @frank_fisher
    @TimMontgomerie @GuidoFawkes I was at a UKIP meeting 30 mins ago - they have had 900 new member applications in last 48 hrs. #Omnishambles

    Blimey! UKIP will have to get a new office and draft some additional helpers.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,412
    There's considerable continuity between the IRA of the 1970s, and its counterpart in the 1920s.
  • Oliver_PBOliver_PB Posts: 397
    Why are people treating a Survation poll seriously?
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    MikeK

    I posted that on the site yesterday!
This discussion has been closed.