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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ukip get to within just 2 points of the Tories in new Surva

SystemSystem Posts: 12,182
edited May 2013 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ukip get to within just 2 points of the Tories in new Survation poll

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  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Panic ahoy!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,768
    edited May 2013
    It's only survation, IIRC they are the only pollster that prompts for UKIP.

    if this was ICM or Mori then i'd be panicking like a Carthaginian during Zama.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Carola said:

    Panic ahoy!

    Triumph for the fops!

    You just knew things were going to move from chaotic to omnishambles when the most inept PB tory spinner of all tried to hilariously dismiss the tories ripping themselves apart on Europe and now gay marriage as "tittle tattle"

    Unspoofable. ;^ )

  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Banging on about Europe. The master strategy to end all master strategies. ;)
  • Arthur_PennyArthur_Penny Posts: 198
    I would just like to know whence have come the UKIP voters. It would appear to be 5% Labour, 7 % conservative and 6% Lib Dem.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    'Survation poll may be flash in pan or aberration but putting Tories on 24% is a crisis for Cameron -- especially with UKIP on 22%.' aneil

    Are any other polls due out tonight?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,768
    I was hoping for a quiet period in British politics for the next three weeks, looks like I'm not going to get it.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    FPT (in response to SeanT):

    Doing a deal with UKIP is not the answer. People like me who find UKIP and the sorts of Tories we've seen on our TV screens for the last few weeks repellent - and loathe Labour for what it has done to the country and its statist and authoritarian tendencies - are even less likely to vote Tory if they turn into UKIP.

    Disliking gays and foreigners and harking back to some imagined and glorious past is an electoral cul de sac. Thatcher may have shown respect for her activists but she was a radical and stood up to vested interests. UKIP want to go back to their comfort blanket. How are they going to deal with Britain as it is not as they would like it to be?

    That's a question to which none of the parties has an answer, frankly.
  • Arthur_PennyArthur_Penny Posts: 198
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It's only survation, IIRC they are the only pollster that prompts for UKIP.

    if this was ICM or Mori then i'd be panicking like a Carthaginian during Zama.

    But surely they prompted for UKIP the last time they did the survey as well? Start panicking.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,768
    Carola said:

    'Survation poll may be flash in pan or aberration but putting Tories on 24% is a crisis for Cameron -- especially with UKIP on 22%.' aneil

    Are any other polls due out tonight?

    I think the normal yougov, and possibly the ComRes phone poll, but I think we may get that next week.
  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    FPT @JemesKelly

    Without Googling - I trust you - can you rattle off the four main islands of the Japanese home archipeligo?
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Carola said:

    'Survation poll may be flash in pan or aberration but putting Tories on 24% is a crisis for Cameron -- especially with UKIP on 22%.' aneil

    Are any other polls due out tonight?

    I think the normal yougov, and possibly the ComRes phone poll, but I think we may get that next week.
    Thanks.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,768
    edited May 2013
    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It's only survation, IIRC they are the only pollster that prompts for UKIP.

    if this was ICM or Mori then i'd be panicking like a Carthaginian during Zama.

    Not prompting for UKIP but prompting for the LDs, who have just half UKIP's support, is absurd. And unjustifiable. So this Survation poll may well be closer to the truth than any of the other pollsters.

    In other words, you have very good reason to panic. I'd suggest you panic. Start panicking NOW.
    I'm panicking because my party are acting like idiots over gay marriage and the next Tory leadership context may well be won if you're opposed to the gays getting married.

    Edit: We're also acting like idiots over Europe as well.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Cyclefree said:

    FPT (in response to SeanT):

    Doing a deal with UKIP is not the answer. People like me who find UKIP and the sorts of Tories we've seen on our TV screens for the last few weeks repellent - and loathe Labour for what it has done to the country and its statist and authoritarian tendencies - are even less likely to vote Tory if they turn into UKIP.

    Disliking gays and foreigners and harking back to some imagined and glorious past is an electoral cul de sac. Thatcher may have shown respect for her activists but she was a radical and stood up to vested interests. UKIP want to go back to their comfort blanket. How are they going to deal with Britain as it is not as they would like it to be?

    That's a question to which none of the parties has an answer, frankly.

    I'm with you. Its not just europe, but the reactionary views on other things that puts me off UKIP.

    Any tacit or overt alliance would lose the centrist pro european Tories, and also the NOTA wing of UKIP. There is no advantage for UKIP of an alliance this side of the Euros.

    Dave Cameron does look like a dead man walking though.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,768
    edited May 2013
    Carola said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Carola said:

    'Survation poll may be flash in pan or aberration but putting Tories on 24% is a crisis for Cameron -- especially with UKIP on 22%.' aneil

    Are any other polls due out tonight?

    I think the normal yougov, and possibly the ComRes phone poll, but I think we may get that next week.
    Thanks.
    We're in a bizarre polling cycle at the moment.

    Which sees ICM and Mori publish within 2 days of each, and then 3 other pollsters publish the following weekend, then about 3 other non yougov polls throughout the rest of the month.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Division on allowing registrars to chose who they marry.

    Yes 150
    NO 340

    Lots of abstentions
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    C4News in Shoreham? Is that a hotbed of UKIPpers?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,768
    Has the telegraph been hacked? I know the FT was last week.

    Telegraph News ‏@TelegraphNews 2m

    Cameron holds fundraiser for the terrorists in Syria. 'It's for the greater good', he tells us in a private interview http://ow.ly/ldm20

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    SeanT said:


    The Tories don't have to "turn into" UKIP. The answer is to go into Coalition with them. Indeed this makes total sense. You can keep your nice One Nation liberal Tory party where you feel at home, and all the sceptics and righties can go to UKIP, and you unite to defeat Labour, and squabble over the Cabinet seating arrangements after you win the election.

    Pretty difficult to do in a FPTP system. If they want to govern there's only space for one of them.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,768
    Carola said:

    C4News in Shoreham? Is that a hotbed of UKIPpers?

    I stayed in Shoreditch for the PB meet, I saw no hotbed of UKIPism
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Cyclefree said:

    FPT (in response to SeanT):

    Doing a deal with UKIP is not the answer.

    It is if you're a swivel eyed loon.
    Simon Usherwood ‏@Usherwood

    BBC News - Tories and UKIP pact: Peter Bone and Nadine Dorries http://bbc.in/14Ipi6I
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Ukip heading for 50% at the GE.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Carola said:

    C4News in Shoreham? Is that a hotbed of UKIPpers?

    I stayed in Shoreditch for the PB meet, I saw no hotbed of UKIPism
    They were scared off by your shoes.
  • GloucesterOldSpotGloucesterOldSpot Posts: 50
    If you can keep your head when all about you
    Are losing theirs and blaming it on you;
    If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
    But make allowance for their doubting too:
    If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
    Or, being lied about, don't deal in lies,
    Or being hated don't give way to hating,
    And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise;

    This is all but an unseasonal Saturnalia. Farage is the Lord of Misrule.

    Reason will triumph.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,768
    Neil said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Carola said:

    C4News in Shoreham? Is that a hotbed of UKIPpers?

    I stayed in Shoreditch for the PB meet, I saw no hotbed of UKIPism
    They were scared off by your shoes.
    You're never going to let me forget those shoes are you?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,768
    edited May 2013
    Yeah, the telegraph news twitter account has been hacked.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366

    All we need now is for Joyce Thacker to join the Number Ten strategy team.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    The Survation EU 2014 shares:-
    Lab 31
    Ukip 30
    CON 20
    LD 8
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    GloucesterOldSpot said:

    If you can keep your head when all about you
    Are losing theirs and blaming it on you;
    If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
    But make allowance for their doubting too:
    If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
    Or, being lied about, don't deal in lies,
    Or being hated don't give way to hating,
    And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise;

    This is all but an unseasonal Saturnalia. Farage is the Lord of Misrule.

    Reason will triumph.

    GOS... do you have a cousin called Seth?

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,768
    MikeSmithson said:

    The Survation EU 2014 shares:-
    Lab 31
    Ukip 30
    CON 20
    LD 8

    Blimeeeeeeeeee
  • smithersjones2013smithersjones2013 Posts: 740
    Also there is this question (q11):

    In 2014 there will be elections to the European Parliament, by a form of proportional representation If this election was to take place tomorrow instead, how do you think you would be most likely to vote in a European Election (figures normalised to exclude Don't Knows, WNV/ Refused):

    Con 20.03%
    Lab 30.62%
    LD 8.40%
    UKIP 29.97%
    Green 5.56%
    SNP 2.58%
    BNP 1.81%
    PC 0.78%
    Other 0.26%
  • astateofdenmarkastateofdenmark Posts: 82
    The Euro election polling question is even more amazing. UKIP 30%, LD 8% and almost 5th behind the Greens. While the tories on 20% would lose a third of their seats.

    But interestingly with Lab on 30% the combined share of the 3 "main parties" is still higher than Euro 2009. So either Lab is not going to lose any of its core vote at the next Euros, or there is even more potential for leakage to the others, especially UKIP, but not forgetting the greens.

    Suspect next May is going to be a bloodbath.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Arthur_Penny said:

    I would just like to know whence have come the UKIP voters. It would appear to be 5% Labour, 7 % conservative and 6% Lib Dem.

    According to Survation Table 15 they have taken 81 2010 voters from Conservative , 26 from Labour and 25 from Lib Dems losing 1 each to Labour and Lib Dem

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    SeanT said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Cyclefree said:

    FPT (in response to SeanT):

    Doing a deal with UKIP is not the answer. People like me who find UKIP and the sorts of Tories we've seen on our TV screens for the last few weeks repellent - and loathe Labour for what it has done to the country and its statist and authoritarian tendencies - are even less likely to vote Tory if they turn into UKIP.

    Disliking gays and foreigners and harking back to some imagined and glorious past is an electoral cul de sac. Thatcher may have shown respect for her activists but she was a radical and stood up to vested interests. UKIP want to go back to their comfort blanket. How are they going to deal with Britain as it is not as they would like it to be?

    That's a question to which none of the parties has an answer, frankly.

    I'm with you. Its not just europe, but the reactionary views on other things that puts me off UKIP.

    Any tacit or overt alliance would lose the centrist pro european Tories, and also the NOTA wing of UKIP. There is no advantage for UKIP of an alliance this side of the Euros.

    Dave Cameron does look like a dead man walking though.
    FFS.

    YOU HAVE NO CHOICE. Unless you want to be completely destroyed at the next election. If these polls are sustained, you will HAVE to go into Coalition with UKIP.

    Alienating "all the pro-European Tories" won't be a problem, his name is Ken, and his support was rather in doubt, anyway.
    There is always a choice. I will not vote for UKIP or a party in coalition with them.

    As I pointed out this could be the saving of Nick Clegg, appealing to the sensible wing of the Conservatives.
  • smithersjones2013smithersjones2013 Posts: 740
    The most expected news of the month according to Sky Mourinho confirmed to leave Real Madrid at the end of the season. Surprise Surprise Ancelotti (PSG) apparently favourite to take his place. All change please.......
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    GloucesterOldSpot said:



    This is all but an unseasonal Saturnalia. Farage is the Lord of Misrule.

    Reason will triumph.

    But surely some barely thought through UIKP tory pact is inevitable?
    Benedict Brogan ‏@benedictbrogan

    A Ukip-led Britain would go bankrupt even faster than under Gordon Brown, @WilliamJHague tells @Telegraph http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10066341/Deal-with-it-William-Hague-offers-common-sense-solution-to-Tory-Euro-turmoil.html …
    Or not.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    New Division

    Aye 148
    NO 349
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    "Tory board rejects investigation into "swivel-eyed" comment. Discussed matter for 35 minutes and unanimously backs Lord Feldman."

    https://twitter.com/michaelsavage/status/336493582456336384

    I think that board might have a re-think.
  • GloucesterOldSpotGloucesterOldSpot Posts: 50
    Carola said:

    GloucesterOldSpot said:

    If you can keep your head when all about you
    Are losing theirs and blaming it on you;
    If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
    But make allowance for their doubting too:
    If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
    Or, being lied about, don't deal in lies,
    Or being hated don't give way to hating,
    And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise;

    This is all but an unseasonal Saturnalia. Farage is the Lord of Misrule.

    Reason will triumph.

    GOS... do you have a cousin called Seth?

    I have a cousin called Mick, Carola.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Carola said:

    GloucesterOldSpot said:

    If you can keep your head when all about you
    Are losing theirs and blaming it on you;
    If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
    But make allowance for their doubting too:
    If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
    Or, being lied about, don't deal in lies,
    Or being hated don't give way to hating,
    And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise;

    This is all but an unseasonal Saturnalia. Farage is the Lord of Misrule.

    Reason will triumph.

    GOS... do you have a cousin called Seth?

    LOL

    Just how many 'relatives' does Seth have?

  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    "Afopalypse Now"

    Nice one, tim.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    A humungous Labour majority. FPTP, I just love those initials !
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    tim said:

    MikeSmithson said:

    The Survation EU 2014 shares:-
    Lab 31
    Ukip 30
    CON 20
    LD 8

    Afopalypse Now.
    Lol.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    2009 Euro shares were

    Con 27.7
    UKIP 16.5
    Lab 15.7
    LD 13.7
    Green 8.1
    BNP 6.2
    SNP 2.1
    Plaid 0.8

  • samsam Posts: 727
    edited May 2013
    SeanT said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    It's only survation, IIRC they are the only pollster that prompts for UKIP.

    if this was ICM or Mori then i'd be panicking like a Carthaginian during Zama.

    Not prompting for UKIP but prompting for the LDs, who have just half UKIP's support, is absurd. And unjustifiable. So this Survation poll may well be closer to the truth than any of the other pollsters.

    In other words, you have very good reason to panic. I'd suggest you panic. Start panicking NOW.
    This poll from 2011, the one that completely debunks the notion that worries about immigration are racist, made it plain for all that there was a gap in the political market

    Left wingers wouldnt acknowledge it because of ideological dogma, Tories were too scared to acknowledge it because they dont know who they are....

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2011/feb/27/support-poll-support-far-right

  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    GloucesterOldSpot said:

    Carola said:

    GloucesterOldSpot said:

    If you can keep your head when all about you
    Are losing theirs and blaming it on you;
    If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
    But make allowance for their doubting too:
    If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
    Or, being lied about, don't deal in lies,
    Or being hated don't give way to hating,
    And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise;

    This is all but an unseasonal Saturnalia. Farage is the Lord of Misrule.

    Reason will triumph.

    GOS... do you have a cousin called Seth?

    I have a cousin called Mick, Carola.
    Ah. I thought there was a tinge of affection around those spats ;)

  • GloucesterOldSpotGloucesterOldSpot Posts: 50
    Mick_Pork said:

    Carola said:

    GloucesterOldSpot said:

    If you can keep your head when all about you
    Are losing theirs and blaming it on you;
    If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
    But make allowance for their doubting too:
    If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
    Or, being lied about, don't deal in lies,
    Or being hated don't give way to hating,
    And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise;

    This is all but an unseasonal Saturnalia. Farage is the Lord of Misrule.

    Reason will triumph.

    GOS... do you have a cousin called Seth?

    LOL

    Just how many 'relatives' does Seth have?

    We are a large family.

    The dog ate the power supply to my laptop and I need to wait 'til Wednesday for a replacement to arrive.

    Tried to sign on with Vanilla but it b*ggered me around on passwords, so I thought I would try an experiment in empathy.

    It's rather fun. I think it'll fly!

  • smithersjones2013smithersjones2013 Posts: 740
    astateofdenmark said:

    The Euro election polling question is even more amazing. UKIP 30%, LD 8% and almost 5th behind the Greens. While the tories on 20% would lose a third of their seats.

    But interestingly with Lab on 30% the combined share of the 3 "main parties" is still higher than Euro 2009. So either Lab is not going to lose any of its core vote at the next Euros, or there is even more potential for leakage to the others, especially UKIP, but not forgetting the greens.

    Suspect next May is going to be a bloodbath.

    Aren't the seats decided by regional PR? In which case you might find that the Tories get hit harder than that (i.e. the regional breaks put them third in the South East and South West and all across the North) and ahead in no region whereas in 2009 they were ahead everywhere except the NE, Scotland and Northern Ireland

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Yeah, the telegraph news twitter account has been hacked.

    The No.10 fightback begins. It's WAR !!

  • Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    edited May 2013
    Not the most important issue given tonight's polling news, but it looks as if Jack will be taking one for the team tomorrow in the High Court of Justice at half past ten:
    Before the Honourable Mr Justice Simon [Unrobed]
    Application notices:
    IHQ/13/0093 Belhaj & ors v Straw & ors
    IHQ/13/0234 Same v Same
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    Carola said:

    GloucesterOldSpot said:

    Carola said:

    GloucesterOldSpot said:

    If you can keep your head when all about you
    Are losing theirs and blaming it on you;
    If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
    But make allowance for their doubting too:
    If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
    Or, being lied about, don't deal in lies,
    Or being hated don't give way to hating,
    And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise;

    This is all but an unseasonal Saturnalia. Farage is the Lord of Misrule.

    Reason will triumph.

    GOS... do you have a cousin called Seth?

    I have a cousin called Mick, Carola.
    Ah. I thought there was a tinge of affection around those spats ;)

    I'm not sure Seth cousin#2 would approve of spats. They may perhaps be a touch racy and modern a choice of footwear for a traditionalist such as he. ;)

  • NextNext Posts: 826
    Right-wing parties: 46%
    Labour: 35%
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Arthur_Penny said:

    I would just like to know whence have come the UKIP voters. It would appear to be 5% Labour, 7 % conservative and 6% Lib Dem.

    Your stats are made up !
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    How seriously will the Conservatives take this poll? In their current febrile state, they are likely to take rash actions that are more likely to cement such polling than deal with it.

    The actual poll is not that surprising. If you go out of your way to repel voters, it's not surprising if those voters are duly repelled.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,957
    Survation/The Sunil:

    Tory/UKIP 46%
    Progressives 46%

    Interesting :)
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,438
    GloucesterOldSpot said:

    Carola said:

    GloucesterOldSpot said:

    If you can keep your head when all about you
    Are losing theirs and blaming it on you;
    If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
    But make allowance for their doubting too:
    If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
    Or, being lied about, don't deal in lies,
    Or being hated don't give way to hating,
    And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise;

    This is all but an unseasonal Saturnalia. Farage is the Lord of Misrule.

    Reason will triumph.

    GOS... do you have a cousin called Seth?

    I have a cousin called Mick, Carola.
    could I have mick and yourself round for dinner ?

    http://www.ardenpigcompany.co.uk/
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Tories should be scared. The situation vis a vis UKIP is precarious and getting worse.

    I very much doubt that UKIP will win enough votes at the next GE to win more than a handful of seats but they may well - on current data - win enough votes to prevent the Tories winning seats in both marginals and strongholds.

    From the perspective of the right this is the perfect storm. The perfect disaster. The perfect scenario for Labour and the Lib Dems.

    Cameron can only deal with this in one of three ways:

    1. Suddenly become impressive, competent and inspiring as a centre-right leader (with help from a revival in the economy).

    2. Do a deal with UKIP.

    3. Pray his nadgers off that all these potential Kippers freeze in the ballot box and lack the bravery to vote UKIP.

    None of these outcomes seem likely.
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    GloucesterOldSpot said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    Carola said:

    GloucesterOldSpot said:

    If you can keep your head when all about you
    Are losing theirs and blaming it on you;
    If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
    But make allowance for their doubting too:
    If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
    Or, being lied about, don't deal in lies,
    Or being hated don't give way to hating,
    And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise;

    This is all but an unseasonal Saturnalia. Farage is the Lord of Misrule.

    Reason will triumph.

    GOS... do you have a cousin called Seth?

    LOL

    Just how many 'relatives' does Seth have?

    We are a large family.

    The dog ate the power supply to my laptop and I need to wait 'til Wednesday for a replacement to arrive.

    Tried to sign on with Vanilla but it b*ggered me around on passwords, so I thought I would try an experiment in empathy.

    It's rather fun. I think it'll fly!

    More identities than Mr Benn...

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5CcysqVFDQw

  • astateofdenmarkastateofdenmark Posts: 82
    According to Wiki UKIP at previous Euro elections:

    1994 - 1% (0 seats)
    1999 - 7% (3)
    2004 - 16.1% (12)
    2009 - 16.5% (13)
    2013 - ?

    That is a two-decade trend, not a mid-term protest. UKIP were relatively strong last time in all English regions bar London.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    PR^2

    Lab 312
    Con 151
    UKIP 127
    LD 32
    Oth 10 (depends on the Nats performance, if higher will be mostly at Labour's expense)
    NI 18
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,667
    edited May 2013
    An electoral pact with a party that has no MPs is an interesting idea.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited May 2013
    antifrank said:

    How seriously will the Conservatives take this poll? In their current febrile state, they are likely to take rash actions that are more likely to cement such polling than deal with it.

    The actual poll is not that surprising. If you go out of your way to repel voters, it's not surprising if those voters are duly repelled.

    If YouGov echo it through the week, a leadership challenge looks likely.

    Sacrifice Feldman?

  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    A disastrous poll for Cameron, if repeated with similar movements by ICM then his Leadership looks terminal.

    On the Euro polling I have expected a loss of 1/3 of the Conservative MEPs and this 8% for the Lib Dems is close to the 7% that RodC showed in his model. A model that predicted the LDs down to 2 MEPs. It could be a race as to who goes first, Clegg or Cameron.
  • smithersjones2013smithersjones2013 Posts: 740
    Mick_Pork said:

    GloucesterOldSpot said:



    This is all but an unseasonal Saturnalia. Farage is the Lord of Misrule.

    Reason will triumph.

    But surely some barely thought through UIKP tory pact is inevitable?
    Benedict Brogan ‏@benedictbrogan

    A Ukip-led Britain would go bankrupt even faster than under Gordon Brown, @WilliamJHague tells @Telegraph http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10066341/Deal-with-it-William-Hague-offers-common-sense-solution-to-Tory-Euro-turmoil.html …
    Or not.


    Hague might rethink that if he repeatedly sees regional breaks like the Survation poll that put UKIP ahead of the Tories in Yorkshire & Humberside, the North East, the North West, the East of England, the South East and neck and neck in the South West. Still they are ahead of them in the Midlands, Scotland and Wales
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013
    Carola said:


    More identities than Mr Benn...

    More identities than this amusing incompetent come to that. ;)

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=alp566hl6R8
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    edited May 2013
    To repeat the obvious.
    Although it adds to the fun of the roller coaster ride, this poll overstates the case. The UKIP effect is clearly damaging the Tories, but there will be nothing so focussing as the bare voting booth (where decisions are final and UKIPian policies will have been considered) and fear and loathing for the lefties. Still, it may lose the Tories the next election.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    I am eagerly waiting for a post to tell us..........rEd is in trouble !!!
  • MBoyMBoy Posts: 104
    SouthamObserver said:

    An electoral pact with a party that has no MPs is an interesting idea.

    Rationality and common sense has long since left the Tory malcontents!

    LOL.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,957
    Why do we still think Dave is crap? Dave is most definitely not crap! He is merely misunderstood, and I put it to you that is the chief reason why he is so maligned and ridiculed by the evil left-wing media.

    I am certain you will agree with me that Dave is magnificently charismatic and eloquent. He is an inspiring and refreshing standard bearer for the Conservative tradition in our great nation. Nay, his performance at Conference last year must surely have been amongst the greatest (if not the greatest) ever given by a leader of the Tory Party, or indeed of any party leader! Such magnificence, such poise, such alacrity. Wow!

    He is articulate, passionate, an accomplished orator, and I think a real alternative to the smarmy posh boy Ed Miliband!
  • smithersjones2013smithersjones2013 Posts: 740
    smithersjones2013 said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    GloucesterOldSpot said:



    This is all but an unseasonal Saturnalia. Farage is the Lord of Misrule.

    Reason will triumph.

    But surely some barely thought through UIKP tory pact is inevitable?
    Benedict Brogan ‏@benedictbrogan

    A Ukip-led Britain would go bankrupt even faster than under Gordon Brown, @WilliamJHague tells @Telegraph http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10066341/Deal-with-it-William-Hague-offers-common-sense-solution-to-Tory-Euro-turmoil.html …
    Or not.
    Hague might rethink that if he repeatedly sees regional breaks like the Survation poll that put UKIP ahead of the Tories in Yorkshire & Humberside, the North East, the North West, the East of England, the South East and neck and neck in the South West. Still they are ahead of them in the Midlands, Scotland and Wales


    And of course they are ahead of UKIP in London as well.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    anotherDave said:

    antifrank said:

    How seriously will the Conservatives take this poll? In their current febrile state, they are likely to take rash actions that are more likely to cement such polling than deal with it.

    The actual poll is not that surprising. If you go out of your way to repel voters, it's not surprising if those voters are duly repelled.

    If YouGov echo it through the week, a leadership challenge looks likely.

    Sacrifice Feldman?

    The correct action by the Conservative party would be to do absolutely nothing precipitate, start talking about the economy and welfare and start looking outwards rather than inwards. That, however, is almost certainly beyond them since they lack anything approaching self-discipline.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,768
    surbiton said:

    I am eagerly waiting for a post to tell us..........rEd is in trouble !!!

    Wait until Saturday.

    I have a Ed is crap thread half written.

  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Personal message from Cameron to party members (genuine apparently):

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/willheaven/100217916/david-camerons-personal-message-to-tory-members-in-full/
  • astateofdenmarkastateofdenmark Posts: 82
    smithersjones2013

    Yes the Euros have some ridiculous system or other that probably sounds good at a LibDem dinner party. If the polling is right then UKIP will likely win (and certainly come at least second) in a number of English regions from the SW up to possibly even Yorks. Bad news for the tories.

    We shall see, let us not forget the cleggasm, tedious bores that always support whatever is fashionable without actually getting their asses to the polling station.
  • NextNext Posts: 826
    They say generals are always fighting the last war.

    Just imagine, if Cameron had pushed for an EU referendum, instead of worrying about gay marriage...

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Euro Calculator
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AswNZWYSW1uvdFFtVGpSQzVoVXpGM253UkhrTEdFbVE&usp=sharing

    Lab 27
    UKIP 24
    Con 12
    LD 3
    SNP 2
    GRN 1
    PC 1
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    According to Baxter, with these polls, Danny A goes. I haven't checked out others. Clegg stays.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    smithersjones2013 said:

    smithersjones2013 said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    GloucesterOldSpot said:



    This is all but an unseasonal Saturnalia. Farage is the Lord of Misrule.

    Reason will triumph.

    But surely some barely thought through UIKP tory pact is inevitable?
    Benedict Brogan ‏@benedictbrogan

    A Ukip-led Britain would go bankrupt even faster than under Gordon Brown, @WilliamJHague tells @Telegraph http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10066341/Deal-with-it-William-Hague-offers-common-sense-solution-to-Tory-Euro-turmoil.html …
    Or not.
    Hague might rethink that if he repeatedly sees regional breaks like the Survation poll that put UKIP ahead of the Tories in Yorkshire & Humberside, the North East, the North West, the East of England, the South East and neck and neck in the South West. Still they are ahead of them in the Midlands, Scotland and Wales
    And of course they are ahead of UKIP in London as well.

    London will never vote for fruitcakes ! C'mon Cameron. We need more talk of Europe and Immigration !!
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    edited May 2013
    smithersjones2013 said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    GloucesterOldSpot said:



    This is all but an unseasonal Saturnalia. Farage is the Lord of Misrule.

    Reason will triumph.

    But surely some barely thought through UIKP tory pact is inevitable?
    Benedict Brogan ‏@benedictbrogan

    A Ukip-led Britain would go bankrupt even faster than under Gordon Brown, @WilliamJHague tells @Telegraph http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10066341/Deal-with-it-William-Hague-offers-common-sense-solution-to-Tory-Euro-turmoil.html …
    Or not.
    Hague might rethink that if he repeatedly sees regional breaks like the Survation poll that put UKIP ahead of the Tories in Yorkshire & Humberside, the North East, the North West, the East of England, the South East and neck and neck in the South West.

    The pact/deal stuff floated by Farage and the likes of Dorries etc. was pure calculated mischief to undermine Cammie. The amazing thing is it seems to be working.

    The kippers don't actually have that much interest in it, and why should they when they can just steal tory voters away from a panicking tory party. The logistics of any such deal would kill it very quickly were it not anything but a calculated ploy from Farage. Farage also won't be very keen to dump his attractiveness as a protest vote. No more 'liblabcon they're all the same but I'm different' after a deal with the tories.

    Recent history should show you that even a coaltion built on MPs rather than fantasy didn't exactly work out too well for the lib dems and keeping their identity.

  • Arthur_PennyArthur_Penny Posts: 198
    surbiton said:

    Arthur_Penny said:

    I would just like to know whence have come the UKIP voters. It would appear to be 5% Labour, 7 % conservative and 6% Lib Dem.

    Your stats are made up !
    They weren't stats - I was asking a question to get feedback - not abuse. The original data worked on was the hypothesis that Labour were on 40% or so, the Tories on about 30 and Lib Dems in the high teens - which was the approximate polling results a couple of months ago.

    So I was wondering also whether there has been a reduction in the number of #don't knows# or #won't vote#?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,768
    SeanT said:

    antifrank said:

    How seriously will the Conservatives take this poll? In their current febrile state, they are likely to take rash actions that are more likely to cement such polling than deal with it.

    The actual poll is not that surprising. If you go out of your way to repel voters, it's not surprising if those voters are duly repelled.

    I can't remember you decrying Dave's ridiculous pursuit of gay marriage (if you have, I retract this remark). Yet gay marriage is one of the things which has repelled voters. Like it or not.
    Yet gay marriage is supported by a majority.

  • smithersjones2013smithersjones2013 Posts: 740
    astateofdenmark said:

    smithersjones2013

    Yes the Euros have some ridiculous system or other that probably sounds good at a LibDem dinner party. If the polling is right then UKIP will likely win (and certainly come at least second) in a number of English regions from the SW up to possibly even Yorks. Bad news for the tories.

    We shall see, let us not forget the cleggasm, tedious bores that always support whatever is fashionable without actually getting their asses to the polling station.

    As I pointed out earlier, the Cleggasm gave the Libdems their best vote total since 1987 at the height of the Alliance. If it were not for a unholy Coalition they might have been well placed given the weakness of the Labour leadership to do well at future elections. They could have been beneficiaries of the tribulations of this Government (although I suspect there may have been fewer tribulations).
  • astateofdenmarkastateofdenmark Posts: 82


    London will never vote for fruitcakes ! C'mon Cameron. We need more talk of Europe and Immigration !!

    At the last Euros London elected a Green and UKIP MEP, plus it had only just got rid of Ken Livingston

    Plenty of fruitcakes to go around here.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    POEDMWAS
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @SeanT What is repelling voters is the circular firing squad. The remedy for the Conservatives is simple: put the guns down. But they're too crazed to realise that.

    The oldies, the bigoted and the cretinous who are upset over gay marriage must accept that they form a tiny minority in modern Britain. Alternatively, they can go screw themselves.
  • GloucesterOldSpotGloucesterOldSpot Posts: 50
    Alanbrooke said:

    GloucesterOldSpot said:

    Carola said:

    GloucesterOldSpot said:

    If you can keep your head when all about you
    Are losing theirs and blaming it on you;
    If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
    But make allowance for their doubting too:
    If you can wait and not be tired by waiting,
    Or, being lied about, don't deal in lies,
    Or being hated don't give way to hating,
    And yet don't look too good, nor talk too wise;

    This is all but an unseasonal Saturnalia. Farage is the Lord of Misrule.

    Reason will triumph.

    GOS... do you have a cousin called Seth?

    I have a cousin called Mick, Carola.
    could I have mick and yourself round for dinner ?

    http://www.ardenpigcompany.co.uk/
    You would need to include Charles if you want the Hogg Roast option, Mr. Brooke.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,930
    Off-topic:

    What looked suspiciously like a Black Hawk helicopter just flew at almost roof-skimming height over our village. I've seen several in recent months, but this was by far the nearest and lowest.

    They're flying west-east or east-west, so I assume it might be something to do with Cambridge airport / Marshalls Aerospace. We don't have any in the UK military (*); does anyone have any idea what they're doing disturbing me from drinking a rather cheap but drinkable red wine?

    Room-shaking good!

    On-topic:
    I rarely comment on polls, but this is a humdinger. I'd be tempted to vote for UKIP under certain circumstances, except a local representative on PB has said they don't want my vote. :-(

    (*) Assuming I am right and they are Black Hawks.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Carola said:

    Personal message from Cameron to party members (genuine apparently):

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/willheaven/100217916/david-camerons-personal-message-to-tory-members-in-full/

    A four-letter word is missing !
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,438
    Dave and Ed should form a common front to fight UKIP, they already have the platform.

    Fruitcakes racists and loonies, there is no money left.

    That should do it.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,656
    I've not read through today's comments but I suspect tim and mick have had plenty to say about today's contemptible goings on.

    Has the Conservative party ever fallen lower than by having its leader being propped up by Ed Miliband.

    Whatever one's political views this saga of arrogance, incompetance and weakness is degrading to British politics.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,768
    edited May 2013
    @Antifrank

    The tory party is in a febrile state.

    What might push Cameron out/a confidence vote is polling that shows say Boris winning a majority if he was leader/the Tories polling in first place if Boris was leader.

    Nadine's final gift to Cameron would be stand down as an MP for Boris and Nigel announcing UKIP won't contest the by-election.

    The other trigger maybe if UKIP win a by-election in a Tory held seat.

    The Tory party won't allow Cameron to be Honorius as the UKIPvisigoths sack Rome/The Tory Party.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Table 19

    2010 LD voters

    Con 6.5%, Lab 29%, LD 41.6%, UKIP 16.5% (Green 5%)

    As I understand it, the Cameroons' whole strategy is designed to attract these voters.

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/Survation_May_Voting_Intentions_Poll_Tables_20th-May.pdf
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,656
    An especial highlight of today's shambles was the government simultaneously claiming that there was no demand for heterosexual civil partnerships but that if they were legal it would cost the country £4bn a year.
  • Mick_PorkMick_Pork Posts: 6,530
    another_richard said:

    I've not read through today's comments but I suspect tim and mick have had plenty to say about today's contemptible goings on.

    I made a few comments this morning and now I'm making some tonight. Are you the new PB post count tsar or something? Maybe you should direct your attention to those other than me and Tim if you seriously think we're the only ones who post much on here?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    RodCrosby said:

    Euro Calculator
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AswNZWYSW1uvdFFtVGpSQzVoVXpGM253UkhrTEdFbVE&usp=sharing

    Lab 27
    UKIP 24
    Con 12
    LD 3
    SNP 2
    GRN 1
    PC 1

    Would the Conservatives EU grouping have enough MEPs without those Conservatives?

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    @SeanT I suggest you go away and learn the concept of a majority. Neither 36% nor 20% constitutes a majority. The 20% who actually care passionately about this do constitute a tiny minority. And they also constitute cretinous bigots. Ergo, my post is correct. And they can go screw themselves.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,656
    Clegg has plunged new depths of deceit.

    He's in favour of heterosexual civil partnerships but votes against them.

    He's in favour of EU referenda but votes against them.

    He opposes tuition fee increases but votes for them.

    Why should anyone believe anything Clegg says ?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Carola said:

    Personal message from Cameron to party members (genuine apparently):

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/willheaven/100217916/david-camerons-personal-message-to-tory-members-in-full/

    Can't find the word Resignation.

    Perhaps he should just sing the Eton Boating Song to them for reasons of space.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,667
    This is not about David Cameron, it's about the cowardice of the Tory right. Rebellious MPs should either be joining UKIP, whose policies across the board they clearly agree with, or they should be putting up a direct challenger to Dave. Afraid of losing their safe seats they do neither. Weak, weak, weak.
  • smithersjones2013smithersjones2013 Posts: 740
    Mick_Pork said:

    smithersjones2013 said:

    Mick_Pork said:

    GloucesterOldSpot said:



    This is all but an unseasonal Saturnalia. Farage is the Lord of Misrule.

    Reason will triumph.

    But surely some barely thought through UIKP tory pact is inevitable?
    Benedict Brogan ‏@benedictbrogan

    A Ukip-led Britain would go bankrupt even faster than under Gordon Brown, @WilliamJHague tells @Telegraph http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10066341/Deal-with-it-William-Hague-offers-common-sense-solution-to-Tory-Euro-turmoil.html …
    Or not.
    Hague might rethink that if he repeatedly sees regional breaks like the Survation poll that put UKIP ahead of the Tories in Yorkshire & Humberside, the North East, the North West, the East of England, the South East and neck and neck in the South West.
    The pact/deal stuff floated by Farage and the like of Dorries etc. was pure calculated mischief to undermine Cammie. The amazing thing is it seems to be working. The kippers don't actually have that much interest in it, and why should they when they can just steal tory voters away from a panicking tory party. The logistics of any such deal would kill it very quickly were it not anything but a calculated ploy from Farage. Farage also won't be very keen to dump his attractiveness as a protest vote. No more 'liblabcon they're all the same but I'm different' after a deal with the tories.

    Recent history should show you that even a coaltion built on MPs rather than fantasy didn't exactly work out too well for the lib dems and keeping their identity.



    I quite agree UKIP have little interest in it, they want to keep their newly found voters. However, if rather than dismissing UKIP and the views of all their newly found voters senior Tories were more concilliatory (knowing the UKIP leadership wouldn't be that keen) then they might have a little less to worry about. Currently the attitude seems to be 'like it or lump it' and more and more are saying 'OK then we lump it'.
This discussion has been closed.