I did state at the time that the referendum rebellion in 2011 marked the beginning of the end for Cameron. Some mocked that.
Hindsight? "TC_PoliticalBetting 24/10/2011 6.30pm What are the metrics in the number of Conservatives that actually vote for the referendum motion? ..... 100+ = Cameron would see a challenger before GE 2015, ... after the European elections if UKIP push ahead of the Conservatives in those elections. "
One thing that has struck me as strange about this evening is that no one has yet apparently made the most obvious point about this poll which is it might just be a very strange outlier.
I can only assume that people are accepting it because it matches their preconceptions of the current narrative. The interesting point is that the validity of that narrative seems to be being accepted by almost everyone right across the board irrespective of party. The only difference between the sides appears to be in the way people explain the narrative or defend against it based on their own allegiances.
Since it is the party I support which does best out of this poll I think it is only fair that I point out that this might just be a rogue (for all that I want to agree with it)
The UKIP number is not an outlier. They've recently had 20% from Opinium (who prompt for UKIP), 19% from ComRes (who do not prompt for UKIP), and 18% from ICM (who do not prompt for UKIP).
To repeat the obvious. Although it adds to the fun of the roller coaster ride, this poll overstates the case. The UKIP effect is clearly damaging the Tories, but there will be nothing so focussing as the bare voting booth (where decisions are final and UKIPian policies will have been considered) and fear of and loathing for the lefties. Still, it may lose the Tories the next election.
The betting markets appear unmoved by all this UKIPpery.
For those who think the surge will last, there are many good bets available. My pick would be the 2/1 offered by Hills about the Kippers winning 1-5 seats at the GE. It seems to me almost inconceivable they will fail to get any seat (6/4 against with Lads look another snip) but more than 5 would be a big ask.
The price will surely shorten as the Election nears, giving ample opportunity for hedging.
It's clearly not a good poll for the Tories, indeed, it's been a bad week overall. That is indisputable, and yet, "not a good poll for the Tories" has Labour at an 11pt lead when leads of 15pts marked even recent history. it's like the Tories are winning the battle but losing the war.
Just out of interest I did a Yougov VI poll this evening with supplementaries on Child Poverty and an EU referendum. Does anyone know when that poll will appear. I assume tomorrow evening? Just wondering how the daily polls work.
It shows just how horrendous the Conservative brand is. For all their sins, I don't blame it entirely on Cameron and Osborne - a big part of it much be down to the legacy of Thatcher, rightly or wrongly. If FPTP survives the next election, it much be imperative for the next Conservative leader to seek a merger with UKIP, and to get rid of the "Tory" name in the meantime.
It goes way back before Thatcher.
To many working class people the Conservatives are the party of the 'rich', the 'posh', the 'bosses', the bankers, the pit owners and landowners, the officers.
The people who ordered them about and lived in a big house.
There is an element of middle class leftism which has a Pavlovian response to the name Thatcher, but they're never going to vote Conservative in any case.
Can someone please explain to me why it is necessary to keep Civil Partnerships? Can they not be made equivalent in law to Same Sex Marriage, with the option to convert and grandfathered rights for those declining conversion?
Just out of interest I did a Yougov VI poll this evening with supplementaries on Child Poverty and an EU referendum. Does anyone know when that poll will appear. I assume tomorrow evening? Just wondering how the daily polls work.
Assuming it is for the daily tracker, this poll will be the one that is published tomorrow night/early wednesday morning.
One thing that has struck me as strange about this evening is that no one has yet apparently made the most obvious point about this poll which is it might just be a very strange outlier.
I can only assume that people are accepting it because it matches their preconceptions of the current narrative. The interesting point is that the validity of that narrative seems to be being accepted by almost everyone right across the board irrespective of party. The only difference between the sides appears to be in the way people explain the narrative or defend against it based on their own allegiances.
Since it is the party I support which does best out of this poll I think it is only fair that I point out that this might just be a rogue (for all that I want to agree with it)
Indeed, Richard.
Strictly speaking though, it is as likely to be understating as overstating the true level of UKIP support. It is as likely to 25% as 19%.
Can someone please explain to me why it is necessary to keep Civil Partnerships? Can they not be made equivalent in law to Same Sex Marriage, with the option to convert and grandfathered rights for those declining conversion?
I don't know why, but I do agree that there should only be one type of marriage.
"Guido FawkesVerified account @GuidoFawkes 2h Reader emailed me today to say she was in tears after reading about #Loonygate. Cynics (like me) forget good people volunteer their time."
@MirrorJames: Ed Mili and Yvette Cooper to vote against the @timloughton ammendment. Labour say Cameron didnt have the numbers to defeat it alone.
@nicholaswatt: Lab source: eleventh hour appeal from govt that they did not have the numbers. Made repeated approaches to us at ever increasing levels
There are some things that are more important than playing politics. I know this will play well for Labour but good on Miliband for making sure the legislation is passed. There are other ways he could have handled this, some of which might have caused even more grief for the Tories but ensuring first and foremost that the bill gets through is a sign of someone who is acting in a principled way.
There's considerable continuity between the IRA of the 1970s, and its counterpart in the 1920s.
While there is a continuous history the vast majority of the IRA of the independence movement ended up in organisations that became reconciled to the existence of the 26 county state (and indeed that have run it ever since). And I doubt that even 10% of the membership of the Provisional IRA in the mid 1970s were members even 10 years before that.
To repeat the obvious. Although it adds to the fun of the roller coaster ride, this poll overstates the case. The UKIP effect is clearly damaging the Tories, but there will be nothing so focussing as the bare voting booth (where decisions are final and UKIPian policies will have been considered) and fear of and loathing for the lefties. Still, it may lose the Tories the next election.
Dave can reissue this poster. That will focus people's minds:
Ladbrokes Politics @LadPolitics Next Tory leader odds: 4 Boris 5 May 10 Hague 10 Hammond 10 Gove 12 Davis 16 Osborne 20 Herbert 20 Hunt 25 Fox.
I disagree. Hague and Osborne are way too short odds. Hague and Osborne are far too tainted with the Europhile policies and Cameron.
I agree, TC.
I would certainly put a line through Hague and Osborne.
Personally I think Boris is poor value, if only because he's not an MP. At present though, it is much easier to delete candidates than nominate a strong one.
Charles - Maybe, but we have been giving aid to India until recently despite its growth and why should overseas aid not have to face the same cuts as the armed forces, libraries, social services, the police, legal aid, welfare etc?
0.7% of GDP is a bullsh1t number - Greening's department struggles to find productive uses & plenty of money is given away via multinational organisations where we don't control the aims, the pupose, the destination or get the credit. Daft.
My spending priorities would be (no idea how much it adds up to, but probably less than current spending:
1. Supporting worthwhile strategic assets (like the World Service, British Council) etc that are currently funded by the BBC or the FCO.
2. Covering cost of MoD peacekeeping expeditions
3. Matching or double matching UK taxpayers charitable giving
4. Money to combat current radicalism
5. Investment to try and reduce the risk of future radicalism
@MirrorJames: Ed Mili and Yvette Cooper to vote against the @timloughton ammendment. Labour say Cameron didnt have the numbers to defeat it alone.
@nicholaswatt: Lab source: eleventh hour appeal from govt that they did not have the numbers. Made repeated approaches to us at ever increasing levels
There are some things that are more important than playing politics. I know this will play well for Labour but good on Miliband for making sure the legislation is passed. There are other ways he could have handled this, some of which might have caused even more grief for the Tories but ensuring first and foremost that the bill gets through is a sign of someone who is acting in a principled way.
Yeah. Agree with that. If two people love each other and want to marry, I can't see why they should be prevented due to their sexual orientation. So yes Ed did the right thing by them.
Ladbrokes Politics @LadPolitics Next Tory leader odds: 4 Boris 5 May 10 Hague 10 Hammond 10 Gove 12 Davis 16 Osborne 20 Herbert 20 Hunt 25 Fox.
I disagree. Hague and Osborne are way too short odds. Hague and Osborne are far too tainted with the Europhile policies and Cameron.
I agree, TC.
I would certainly put a line through Hague and Osborne.
Personally I think Boris is poor value, if only because he's not an MP. At present though, it is much easier to delete candidates than nominate a strong one.
May....maybe?
It'll be all about the polling.
If some polls show the Tories do significantly better with Boris in charge, then anything is possible.
I did state at the time that the referendum rebellion in 2011 marked the beginning of the end for Cameron. Some mocked that.
Hindsight? "TC_PoliticalBetting 24/10/2011 6.30pm What are the metrics in the number of Conservatives that actually vote for the referendum motion? ..... 100+ = Cameron would see a challenger before GE 2015, ... after the European elections if UKIP push ahead of the Conservatives in those elections. "
Cameron when negotiating with the lib dems should have had a EU referendum first on his and the conservatives list of demands in the first 5 years,he could have lanced the Tory/ukip EU boil but then again,he sent oliver letwin to do the negotiations ;-)
Stephen Fry responds to Gerald Howarth 'there were are plenty of people "in the aggressive homosexual community who see this as but a stepping stone to something even further" ?? 'Yes, Sir Gerald, it's a stepping stone to legislation that makes it illegal to be heterosexual'
What we have seen in recent weeks is that politics is a messy business, not least when it is done badly. Mr Cameron is fortunate that much of it will have passed the voters by. The fundamentals continue to favour him. The economy is gradually coming good, the Tories are the only party to offer Britain a say on Europe, his core policies on welfare and education are succeeding, and Ed Miliband is presiding over a slow-motion slump in Labour support.
Ladbrokes Politics @LadPolitics Next Tory leader odds: 4 Boris 5 May 10 Hague 10 Hammond 10 Gove 12 Davis 16 Osborne 20 Herbert 20 Hunt 25 Fox.
I disagree. Hague and Osborne are way too short odds. Hague and Osborne are far too tainted with the Europhile policies and Cameron.
I agree, TC.
I would certainly put a line through Hague and Osborne.
Personally I think Boris is poor value, if only because he's not an MP. At present though, it is much easier to delete candidates than nominate a strong one.
May....maybe?
Did I mention that Theresa May was 66/1 next PM last Autumn?
Quiet now Tim, or you'll have Mike on to remind us about his Barack Obama tip....
Charles - Maybe, but we have been giving aid to India until recently despite its growth and why should overseas aid not have to face the same cuts as the armed forces, libraries, social services, the police, legal aid, welfare etc?
0.7% of GDP is a bullsh1t number - Greening's department struggles to find productive uses & plenty of money is given away via multinational organisations where we don't control the aims, the pupose, the destination or get the credit. Daft.
My spending priorities would be (no idea how much it adds up to, but probably less than current spending:
1. Supporting worthwhile strategic assets (like the World Service, British Council) etc that are currently funded by the BBC or the FCO.
2. Covering cost of MoD peacekeeping expeditions
3. Matching or double matching UK taxpayers charitable giving
4. Money to combat current radicalism
5. Investment to try and reduce the risk of future radicalism
Aid to Pakistan 170 million GBP p.a. "Aid" to the EU 18 BILLION GBP p.a.
On a more serious issue...Italian RAI published the Eurovision televote figures. Poor Bonnie finished 25th out of 26...but she beated France for last place.
And who was the winner of Italian televote? Search for immigration stats and you will get the top 3
There's considerable continuity between the IRA of the 1970s, and its counterpart in the 1920s.
While there is a continuous history the vast majority of the IRA of the independence movement ended up in organisations that became reconciled to the existence of the 26 county state (and indeed that have run it ever since). And I doubt that even 10% of the membership of the Provisional IRA in the mid 1970s were members even 10 years before that.
And the modern UVF had nothing to do with the organisation my cousin founded!
On a more serious issue...Italian RAI published the Eurovision televote figures. Poor Bonnie finished 25th out of 26...but she beated France for last place.
And who was the winner of Italian televote? Search for immigration stats and you will get the top 2
I did state at the time that the referendum rebellion in 2011 marked the beginning of the end for Cameron. Some mocked that.
Hindsight? "TC_PoliticalBetting 24/10/2011 6.30pm What are the metrics in the number of Conservatives that actually vote for the referendum motion? ..... 100+ = Cameron would see a challenger before GE 2015, ... after the European elections if UKIP push ahead of the Conservatives in those elections. "
Cameron when negotiating with the lib dems should have had a EU referendum first on his and the conservatives list of demands in the first 5 years,he could have lanced the Tory/ukip EU boil but then again,he sent oliver letwin to do the negotiations ;-)
There does seem to have been a series of assumptions about what the LibDems would or would not accept. Odd negotiating tactic to give up controversial issues without discussion
For those who think the surge will last, there are many good bets available. My pick would be the 2/1 offered by Hills about the Kippers winning 1-5 seats at the GE. It seems to me almost inconceivable they will fail to get any seat (6/4 against with Lads look another snip) but more than 5 would be a big ask.
I wouldn't touch any of them.
How many seats did the SDP win in 1983, which weren't...
i) fought by incumbents ii) a former Liberal seat the Liberals unaccountably stood down in
Answer?
None, and they only came within spitting distance in two others.
And that's with the Gang of Four, by-election victories, 30 MPs in the House, and having touched 50% (with the Libs) in the polls, etc.
And the modern UVF had nothing to do with the organisation my cousin founded!
They were far too working class for anyone to have made that mistake, Charles.
IIRC, cousin Eddie's UVF had 100,000 troops (out of the 218,000 men who signed the Covenant). There aren't that many posh people in the whole of Ireland, let alone the North ;-)
And the modern UVF had nothing to do with the organisation my cousin founded!
They were far too working class for anyone to have made that mistake, Charles.
Even the Irish Labour Party have a slight link to Sinn Fein. How?
After the Officials split from the Provos in 1970, there was another split a few years later within the Officials that produced the INLA and (eventually) the Workers Party. The Workers Party split in 1992 to produce Democratic Left. When DL wound up in 1999, most members joined the ILP.
Even the Irish Labour Party have a slight link to Sinn Fein. How?
The Irish Labour Party has a more direct link to the independence movement through the Irish Citizen Army. Though the stickies didnt just join up with the Irish Labour Party - they practically performed a reverse take-over (the last two leaders were ex-stickies).
Even the Irish Labour Party have a slight link to Sinn Fein. How?
The Irish Labour Party has a more direct link to the independence movement through the Irish Citizen Army. Though the stickies didnt just join up with the Irish Labour Party - they practically performed a reverse take-over (the last two leaders were ex-stickies).
Camerons hoping by 2015 GE(if it gets that far) It's a choice between - PM Cameron or PM Miliband and if Cameron or tory strategist are going on this,they have a point ;-)
What do you expect at my local health centre,alot of the new patients are from Eastern Europe.
If you privatise out of hours services like Labour did over the last decade, then what do you expect but a faceless call center.
The idea that you can call out your GP in the night and expect him to run a surgery and the next day is history. In america "house calls" disappeared about the time Elvis was drafted. I am surprised that they lasted as long as they did here.
It's clearly not a good poll for the Tories, indeed, it's been a bad week overall. That is indisputable, and yet, "not a good poll for the Tories" has Labour at an 11pt lead when leads of 15pts marked even recent history'
And when we had real votes less than three weeks ago Labour managed a miserable 4% lead.
Comments
Hindsight?
"TC_PoliticalBetting 24/10/2011 6.30pm
What are the metrics in the number of Conservatives that actually vote for the referendum motion? ..... 100+ = Cameron would see a challenger before GE 2015, ... after the European elections if UKIP push ahead of the Conservatives in those elections. "
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2013
For those who think the surge will last, there are many good bets available. My pick would be the 2/1 offered by Hills about the Kippers winning 1-5 seats at the GE. It seems to me almost inconceivable they will fail to get any seat (6/4 against with Lads look another snip) but more than 5 would be a big ask.
The price will surely shorten as the Election nears, giving ample opportunity for hedging.
To many working class people the Conservatives are the party of the 'rich', the 'posh', the 'bosses', the bankers, the pit owners and landowners, the officers.
The people who ordered them about and lived in a big house.
There is an element of middle class leftism which has a Pavlovian response to the name Thatcher, but they're never going to vote Conservative in any case.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2MGNfYKiY7A
Some people deserve to rot in hell.
Strictly speaking though, it is as likely to be understating as overstating the true level of UKIP support. It is as likely to 25% as 19%.
Next Tory leader odds: 4 Boris 5 May 10 Hague 10 Hammond 10 Gove 12 Davis 16 Osborne 20 Herbert 20 Hunt 25 Fox.
I disagree. Hague and Osborne are way too short odds. Hague and Osborne are far too tainted with the Europhile policies and Cameron.
Reader emailed me today to say she was in tears after reading about #Loonygate. Cynics (like me) forget good people volunteer their time."
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/336561110964658177
I think more polling like this, with the phone pollsters, then I will be right.
No 57
I lost count on what they are voting on now!
http://www.ukbudgetcuts.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/cameron-nhs-poster.jpg
I would certainly put a line through Hague and Osborne.
Personally I think Boris is poor value, if only because he's not an MP. At present though, it is much easier to delete candidates than nominate a strong one.
May....maybe?
My spending priorities would be (no idea how much it adds up to, but probably less than current spending:
1. Supporting worthwhile strategic assets (like the World Service, British Council) etc that are currently funded by the BBC or the FCO.
2. Covering cost of MoD peacekeeping expeditions
3. Matching or double matching UK taxpayers charitable giving
4. Money to combat current radicalism
5. Investment to try and reduce the risk of future radicalism
If some polls show the Tories do significantly better with Boris in charge, then anything is possible.
Just remember the PM doesn't have to be an MP.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/benedictbrogan/100217929/cameron-shouldnt-blame-our-rowdy-press-for-his-own-failings/
What we have seen in recent weeks is that politics is a messy business, not least when it is done badly. Mr Cameron is fortunate that much of it will have passed the voters by. The fundamentals continue to favour him. The economy is gradually coming good, the Tories are the only party to offer Britain a say on Europe, his core policies on welfare and education are succeeding, and Ed Miliband is presiding over a slow-motion slump in Labour support.
"Aid" to the EU 18 BILLION GBP p.a.
Poor Bonnie finished 25th out of 26...but she beated France for last place.
And who was the winner of Italian televote? Search for immigration stats and you will get the top 3
http://order-order.com/2013/05/20/hunt-fires-spad-after-just-six-months/
No 375
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/336594646962667522/photo/1
Romania, Moldova and Ukraine. Greece was 4th
How many seats did the SDP win in 1983, which weren't...
i) fought by incumbents
ii) a former Liberal seat the Liberals unaccountably stood down in
Answer?
None, and they only came within spitting distance in two others.
And that's with the Gang of Four, by-election victories, 30 MPs in the House, and having touched 50% (with the Libs) in the polls, etc.
Article is a couple of years old.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1353077/London-Mayor-Boris-Johnson-father-Helen-Macintyres-lovechild.html
After the Officials split from the Provos in 1970, there was another split a few years later within the Officials that produced the INLA and (eventually) the Workers Party. The Workers Party split in 1992 to produce Democratic Left. When DL wound up in 1999, most members joined the ILP.
He better get his name on the birth cert or there will be lots of pb-ers complaining about his lack of commitment!
Also front of mail - headline.
The GPs who don't even know your name.
What do you expect at my local health centre,alot of the new patients are from Eastern Europe.
The idea that you can call out your GP in the night and expect him to run a surgery and the next day is history. In america "house calls" disappeared about the time Elvis was drafted. I am surprised that they lasted as long as they did here.
It's clearly not a good poll for the Tories, indeed, it's been a bad week overall. That is indisputable, and yet, "not a good poll for the Tories" has Labour at an 11pt lead when leads of 15pts marked even recent history'
And when we had real votes less than three weeks ago Labour managed a miserable 4% lead.