politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling analysis: Rochester is a far far bigger challenge f

System · October 2014

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling analysis: Rochester is a far far bigger challenge for UKIP than Clacton

I’ve become totally absorbed by the Rochester by-election the outcome of which, either way, will have a dramatic affect on the political environment in the six months to the May 7th general election.

Read the full story here

Gadfly · October 2014

First!

CarlottaVance · October 2014

Second! Like Reckless in Rochester!

JohnLoony · October 2014

UKIP, of course, gave Reckless a free ride in 2010 so there’s no 2010 data relating to the party to link back to.

It would be useful if there had been any constituency-level opinion polls in either Clacton or Rochester & Strood about how people said they were going to vote. Some would have said UKIP even when there was no UKIP candidate.

(I remember that 3% of people in Scotland said they would vote Green in the constituency section of the Scottish Parliament election, even when there were no Green candidates in the constituency section (I think it was 1999)).

audreyanne · October 2014

Very interesting analysis Mike. It won't go down well with the UKIP tub thumpers on here but there is nothing like facts. It'll also be interesting to see if
1. naming the Conservative candidate makes a difference following
2. a full constituency primary
3. having a female
4. the next polls being longer after the Clacton result and
5. the kitchen sink from the Tories compared to the Clacton gimme.

I agree that I make Reckless favourite still, but also that it's on a knife-edge.

OldKingCole · October 2014

Will Barroso’s comments make people reconsider. Seems to me he’s pointing out the practical difficulties for Cameron, who, for reasons best known to himself, is rapidly painting himself into a corner.

Charles · October 2014

audreyanne said:
Very interesting analysis Mike. It won't go down well with the UKIP tub thumpers on here but there is nothing like facts. It'll also be interesting to see if
1. naming the Conservative candidate makes a difference following
2. a full constituency primary
3. having a female
4. the next polls being longer after the Clacton result and
5. the kitchen sink from the Tories compared to the Clacton gimme.

I agree that I make Reckless favourite still, but also that it's on a knife-edge.

Don't worry, audrey, they've already been testing out their "but the Tories cheated" lines...

Innocent_Abroad · October 2014

OldKingCole said:
Will Barroso’s comments make people reconsider. Seems to me he’s pointing out the practical difficulties for Cameron, who, for reasons best known to himself, is rapidly painting himself into a corner.

They're not "best known to himself". His Party's funders are pro-European.

Indigo · October 2014

Innocent_Abroad said:

OldKingCole said:
Will Barroso’s comments make people reconsider. Seems to me he’s pointing out the practical difficulties for Cameron, who, for reasons best known to himself, is rapidly painting himself into a corner.
They're not "best known to himself". His Party's funders are pro-European.

Catch-22

Either move in a eurosceptic direction, and lose a lot of your parties funding, or stand against a rising tide of voter euroscepticism, lose the election, and lose most of your party funding anyway.

Charles · October 2014

OldKingCole said:
Will Barroso’s comments make people reconsider. Seems to me he’s pointing out the practical difficulties for Cameron, who, for reasons best known to himself, is rapidly painting himself into a corner.

A lot of it depends on how "free movement of labour" is interpreted.

Barroso was equating it as "free movement of people" (which has been the classicial definition). But I have heard some suggestions that it could be interpreted as effectively meaning that work permits etc will be entirely administrative - the basic principle being that you can't come to the UK without an existing job offer.

That would seem to protect the key purpose of the "free movement" principle.

OldKingCole · October 2014

Innocent_Abroad said:

OldKingCole said:
Will Barroso’s comments make people reconsider. Seems to me he’s pointing out the practical difficulties for Cameron, who, for reasons best known to himself, is rapidly painting himself into a corner.
They're not "best known to himself". His Party's funders are pro-European.

Then why does he keep pretending he’s anti? There’s only so long even a politician can go on riding two horses!

MonikerDiCanio · October 2014

OldKingCole said:
Will Barroso’s comments make people reconsider. Seems to me he’s pointing out the practical difficulties for Cameron, who, for reasons best known to himself, is rapidly painting himself into a corner.

Barroso is a remarkably honest and straight-talking politician. He's exploded Cameron's nonsense on the EU just as he did with the SNP's eurotrash in a previous interview with Marr.

DavidL · October 2014

The key to Rochester surely has to be the 13,600 Labour voters. If they vote tactically en masse for Reckless then he can afford to get a much smaller share of the tory vote. If they vote to keep UKIP out he has no chance whatsoever.

Of course a confident Labour party on its way to power would be expecting to come through the middle here and win. 2010 was a terrible result for Labour with a near 10% swing. They really ought to be stronger in a seat like this in anything like normal times and certainly in opposition. In fact this seat really ought to be within their grasp if the right wing vote is split in two.

But no one really believes this is going to happen. Instead Labour will be squeezed as will the previously reasonably chunky vote of the Lib Dems. How much they are squeezed and in what direction will determine the result. Tory optimists see glimmers of an anti UKIP coalition with soft Labour voters contemplating the lesser of 2 evils. If they are right 2015 will look a lot better for Cameron. If UKIP do win this the road looks long, hard and rocky.

As I have said before this is undoubtedly the most important by election of the Parliament.

Charles · October 2014

Indigo said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

OldKingCole said:
Will Barroso’s comments make people reconsider. Seems to me he’s pointing out the practical difficulties for Cameron, who, for reasons best known to himself, is rapidly painting himself into a corner.
They're not "best known to himself". His Party's funders are pro-European.

Catch-22

Either move in a eurosceptic direction, and lose a lot of your parties funding, or stand against a rising tide of voter euroscepticism, lose the election, and lose most of your party funding anyway.

A lot of the funders are more sceptical than you might imagine. Most of them buy into the reform agenda.

logical_song · October 2014

Innocent_Abroad said:

OldKingCole said:
Will Barroso’s comments make people reconsider. Seems to me he’s pointing out the practical difficulties for Cameron, who, for reasons best known to himself, is rapidly painting himself into a corner.
They're not "best known to himself". His Party's funders are pro-European.

His (the Conservative) Party's funders are mainly big business. Business is in favour of the EU, just as it was for 'No' in the Scottish referendum. This will become clear and will probably be decisive if we get an EU 'in/out' referendum.

Charles · October 2014

logical_song said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

OldKingCole said:
Will Barroso’s comments make people reconsider. Seems to me he’s pointing out the practical difficulties for Cameron, who, for reasons best known to himself, is rapidly painting himself into a corner.
They're not "best known to himself". His Party's funders are pro-European.

His (the Conservative) Party's funders are mainly big business. Business is in favour of the EU, just as it was for 'No' in the Scottish referendum. This will become clear and will probably be decisive if we get an EU 'in/out' referendum.

Not really.

They tend to be entrepreneur created businesses and/or financiers

Indigo · October 2014

Charles said:

Indigo said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

OldKingCole said:
Will Barroso’s comments make people reconsider. Seems to me he’s pointing out the practical difficulties for Cameron, who, for reasons best known to himself, is rapidly painting himself into a corner.
They're not "best known to himself". His Party's funders are pro-European.

Catch-22

Either move in a eurosceptic direction, and lose a lot of your parties funding, or stand against a rising tide of voter euroscepticism, lose the election, and lose most of your party funding anyway.
A lot of the funders are more sceptical than you might imagine. Most of them buy into the reform agenda.

I think a lot of them expect Cameron to return from his renegotiation with a figleaf, use that to back an IN vote in the following Referendum, which they will contribute generously towards, and then business will continue as usual, only they will have the warm feeling that the EU membership issue will probably have been put to bed for a decade.

Innocent_Abroad · October 2014

Indigo said:

Charles said:

Indigo said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

OldKingCole said:
Will Barroso’s comments make people reconsider. Seems to me he’s pointing out the practical difficulties for Cameron, who, for reasons best known to himself, is rapidly painting himself into a corner.
They're not "best known to himself". His Party's funders are pro-European.

Catch-22

Either move in a eurosceptic direction, and lose a lot of your parties funding, or stand against a rising tide of voter euroscepticism, lose the election, and lose most of your party funding anyway.
A lot of the funders are more sceptical than you might imagine. Most of them buy into the reform agenda.
I think a lot of them expect Cameron to return from his renegotiation with a figleaf, use that to back an IN vote in the following Referendum, which they will contribute generously towards, and then business will continue as usual, only they will have the warm feeling that the EU membership issue will probably have been put to bed for a decade.

I suspect Charles is whistling to keep his spirits up.

DavidL · October 2014

Barroso's comments seem to me to reflect the current legal position in the EU. No one disputes that. Cameron is seeking to change those rules. Barroso is pointing out that this means undermining one of the fundamental principles of the EU. No one is disputing that either. So this is not going to be easy.

What Cameron is looking for is a semi-detached relationship with the EU, a sort of friends with benefits arrangement. The other EU members may or may not agree to that but they will have to recognise that unless they do the relationship may well come to an end.

I find it difficult to judge how the ongoing EZ crisis is going to feed into this but it will play a part. The EZ is in very poor shape and will be worse by the time these negotiations are going on. This may mean that the members will be focused on treaty changes allowing them to further integrate their economy and a quid pro quo becomes possible. Or it may mean this is an unwelcome distraction.

My own guess is that the EU really would not want one of its major players to leave at this time. It would risk a serious unravelling of what is a fragile block. Also, no matter how much they seem to hate it, a major part of the EU's world status in financial market terms revolves around London. Without it they would look even more like a backwater than they do at the moment.

EU member states and the Commission have probably reached the view that Ed would be a lot easier to deal with since he wouldn't raise any of this. I think we can expect some more "unhelpful" interventions over the coming months. The Commission might get some help from their good friends in UKIP.

blackburn63 · October 2014

UKIP are the equivalent of 2/7 on betfair, anybody who thinks this is on a knife edge should fill their boots and lay UKIP

Can't believe the obsession with tactical voting on here, people assuming the wider electorate is as obsessed with politics as a few dozen on here.

Charles · October 2014

Indigo said:

Charles said:

Indigo said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

OldKingCole said:
Will Barroso’s comments make people reconsider. Seems to me he’s pointing out the practical difficulties for Cameron, who, for reasons best known to himself, is rapidly painting himself into a corner.
They're not "best known to himself". His Party's funders are pro-European.

Catch-22

Either move in a eurosceptic direction, and lose a lot of your parties funding, or stand against a rising tide of voter euroscepticism, lose the election, and lose most of your party funding anyway.
A lot of the funders are more sceptical than you might imagine. Most of them buy into the reform agenda.
I think a lot of them expect Cameron to return from his renegotiation with a figleaf, use that to back an IN vote in the following Referendum, which they will contribute generously towards, and then business will continue as usual, only they will have the warm feeling that the EU membership issue will probably have been put to bed for a decade.

The mistake you are making is to equate the interest of "big business" (the multinationals) with "business" (the SMEs).

The CBI is as naively pro-European as you suppose. The IoD (which represents SMEs) is much more sceptical.

If you have time, have a quick look at the Business for Britain website - there's a pretty good list of interesting supporters. In the event of a poor outcome from a negotiation, many of them would reluctantly support "in" but others would support out (FWIW, I doint know where I would end up). There are also some BOOers there, but not that many.

DavidL · October 2014

blackburn63 said:
UKIP are the equivalent of 2/7 on betfair, anybody who thinks this is on a knife edge should fill their boots and lay UKIP

Can't believe the obsession with tactical voting on here, people assuming the wider electorate is as obsessed with politics as a few dozen on here.

Tactical voting plays a much bigger role in a competitive by election than it does in a GE. Anyone ignoring it is probably going to get the result wrong. What price on yet another lost deposit for the Lib Dems? Those 6K votes (or, more realistically 4K on a lower turnout) have to go somewhere.

Indigo · October 2014

blackburn63 said:

Can't believe the obsession with tactical voting on here, people assuming the wider electorate is as obsessed with politics as a few dozen on here.

Has anyone ever asked a question in a reputable poll along the lines of "If you could keep party X out by voting for party Y, even though you voted for party Z last time, would you?"

[Deleted User] · October 2014

Barroso is right and Dave has no negotiating power whatever unless Out is a real option. Nobody believes Dave would ever 'reluctantly accept that we must leave'. He believes we should stay In. So he has nothing whatever to negotiate with. He;s being a tool - making Outy noises while never possibly contemplating an Out is idiocy. If he actualy said (and meant): 'if we get A we'll stay but if we don't get A and only B then I'm going hard for an Out' - then he'd be credible. As it is he just looks like a poseur.

blackburn63 · October 2014

I wonder if somebody could give an example of a tactical vote in Rochester.

OldKingCole · October 2014

While unquestionably a lot of Third World (illegal) immigrants look to the UK as the Promised Land, much as many Europeans looked to the US 100 or so years ago, and have given no thought to anywhere else, are there not problems in other “old” EU members with lower-wage-expecting or benefits gaining immigrants from the East, and if so how are they dealing with them?

Germany, Sweden, France and I think Denmark have a lot of immigrants. Are they seen as a “problem”? If not, why not. If so would they not be on Briatin’s side in wanting revision?

I get ghe impression that “immigration” is one thing in the mind of opponents, but in reality a miulti-facted matter.

Indigo · October 2014

Charles said:

If you have time, have a quick look at the Business for Britain website - there's a pretty good list of interesting supporters. In the event of a poor outcome from a negotiation, many of them would reluctantly support "in" but others would support out (FWIW, I doint know where I would end up). There are also some BOOers there, but not that many.

Thanks for that, interesting.

I have also been wondering if Cameron might basically be told to p1ss off by the EU forced to come home with nothing, if they feel comfortable in their ability to win a referendum, or are past caring if we stay or go. They dont seem to like him much in Brussels and taking an implacable position would either be a humiliation for Cameron and the UK if the vote is IN, or they get shot of a troublemaker if its OUT.

Innocent_Abroad · October 2014

Indigo said:

blackburn63 said:

Can't believe the obsession with tactical voting on here, people assuming the wider electorate is as obsessed with politics as a few dozen on here.
Has anyone ever asked a question in a reputable poll along the lines of "If you could keep party X out by voting for party Y, even though you voted for party Z last time, would you?"

I believe it was done, just the once, with the following result:

Yes - 15%
No - 5%
Could you please repeat that question? - 80%

Indigo · October 2014

OldKingCole said:

Germany, Sweden, France and I think Denmark have a lot of immigrants. Are they seen as a “problem”? If not, why not. If so would they not be on Briatin’s side in wanting revision?

FN in France has got to within spitting distance of government on the back on an essentially anti-immigration and protectionist platform so it must be a major element in French politics, probably for the same reason as it is here, the main two parties trying really hard not to have an immigration policy.

Millsy · October 2014

You can still get 3/1 for the Tories in Rochester with selected bookmakers

another_richard · October 2014

George Osborne, January 2010:

"at the moment we borrow money from the Chinese in order to buy the things that the Chinese make for us."

Four years of Osborne as Chancellor and the UK has a government deficit over £100bn and a balance of payments deficit over £90bn.

To make it easier to borrow money from the Chinese the British government now sells bonds denoted in renminbi.

Financier · October 2014

@OldKingCole

If you ask yourself why so many immigrants at Calais are desperate to get into the UK and are willing to risk death to get here, then the reason why they do not stay in France, Italy or Spain will become apparent.

Of course if any of these can get a EU passport en route to Calais, then it becomes more difficult to exclude them.

Pulpstar · October 2014

Morning all

I had a dream that the Lib Dems were ahead of the SNP in a Scotland specific constituency poll !

[Deleted User] · October 2014

blackburn63 said:
I wonder if somebody could give an example of a tactical vote in Rochester.

The only possible winners will be Tory or UKIP. So....

If a a lefty really wants UKIP to fail they vote Tory. If they really want Dave to stumble they vote UKIP.

Casino_Royale · October 2014

logical_song said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

OldKingCole said:
Will Barroso’s comments make people reconsider. Seems to me he’s pointing out the practical difficulties for Cameron, who, for reasons best known to himself, is rapidly painting himself into a corner.
They're not "best known to himself". His Party's funders are pro-European.

His (the Conservative) Party's funders are mainly big business. Business is in favour of the EU, just as it was for 'No' in the Scottish referendum. This will become clear and will probably be decisive if we get an EU 'in/out' referendum.

Big business isn't in favour of the EU for ideological reasons. It just likes stability, predictability and doesn't like change. It's the uncertainty around the future of our membership of the EU that chiefly concerns them, and what trading deal we'd get. If we were 'out' they'd soon learn to live with it, and thrive.

We've been before with the 'joining the euro' debate in the early 00s. Does any big business seriously advocate joining the euro now?

Quincel · October 2014

DavidL said:

blackburn63 said:
UKIP are the equivalent of 2/7 on betfair, anybody who thinks this is on a knife edge should fill their boots and lay UKIP

Can't believe the obsession with tactical voting on here, people assuming the wider electorate is as obsessed with politics as a few dozen on here.
Tactical voting plays a much bigger role in a competitive by election than it does in a GE. Anyone ignoring it is probably going to get the result wrong. What price on yet another lost deposit for the Lib Dems? Those 6K votes (or, more realistically 4K on a lower turnout) have to go somewhere.

1/10, WilHil.

AlastairMeeks · October 2014

blackburn63 said:
I wonder if somebody could give an example of a tactical vote in Rochester.

You might see Labour voters choosing to back UKIP to dish the Tories or Labour voters choosing to back the Conservatives to keep out UKIP. In practice, I expect both will happen in differing degrees.

I agree with our host's assessment that right now this looks like it could be a cliffhanger and having backed and laid UKIP for a while, I'm currently laying them simply because the price is far too short on present information.

isam · October 2014

audreyanne said:
Very interesting analysis Mike. It won't go down well with the UKIP tub thumpers on here but there is nothing like facts. It'll also be interesting to see if
1. naming the Conservative candidate makes a difference following
2. a full constituency primary
3. having a female
4. the next polls being longer after the Clacton result and
5. the kitchen sink from the Tories compared to the Clacton gimme.

I agree that I make Reckless favourite still, but also that it's on a knife-edge.

I made my bets, and my arguments purely from facts

Ukip won the euros by a distance
Ukip have the incumbent mp
Ukip are 9% ahead in the only poll

What are the facts the conservatives are using? They are REALLY TRYING HARD?

rottenborough · October 2014

Morning all,

I think Tories will hold Rochester and I've put my money where my mouth is. So Mike's Survation analysis is heartening from a betting point of view. A UKIP win would of course be far more entertaining as the big parties have a collective nervous breakdown 4 months before the big poll.

Morris_Dancer · October 2014

Good morning, everyone.

The Barroso utterances will help Cameron. Doesn't matter whether he's right or wrong. An unelected foreign bureaucrat from Brussels coming over here and attacking the PM's position is akin to being insulted by a French monarch in the 14th century.

rottenborough · October 2014

Morris_Dancer said:
Good morning, everyone.

The Barroso utterances will help Cameron. Doesn't matter whether he's right or wrong. An unelected foreign bureaucrat from Brussels coming over here and attacking the PM's position is akin to being insulted by a French monarch in the 14th century.

No doubt you are correct. Maybe the announcement was so timed, as they knew he was coming. As its his last few months, its like a farewell tour.

david_herdson · October 2014

isam said:

audreyanne said:
Very interesting analysis Mike. It won't go down well with the UKIP tub thumpers on here but there is nothing like facts. It'll also be interesting to see if
1. naming the Conservative candidate makes a difference following
2. a full constituency primary
3. having a female
4. the next polls being longer after the Clacton result and
5. the kitchen sink from the Tories compared to the Clacton gimme.

I agree that I make Reckless favourite still, but also that it's on a knife-edge.

I made my bets, and my arguments purely from facts

Ukip won the euros by a distance

True, but then nationally UKIP polled 10-15% above their current Westminster VI in the Euros, while the Tories polled about 8% below; facts which need to be taken into account.

isam said:

Ukip have the incumbent mp

Elected as a Tory.

isam said:

Ukip are 9% ahead in the only poll

The most relevant fact, though it's a snapshot not a prediction, and by-election polls are particularly difficult to model, particularly when there's a significant change in line-up as in Rochester.

isam said:

What are the facts the conservatives are using? They are REALLY TRYING HARD?

That is a relevant fact, as it will play a part in the campaign. Campaign spend and activist activity matter.

None of which is to say UKIP won't win; they clearly stand a good chance. It is, however, to put things in some perspective.

MonikerDiCanio · October 2014

Morris_Dancer said:
Good morning, everyone.

The Barroso utterances will help Cameron. Doesn't matter whether he's right or wrong. An unelected foreign bureaucrat from Brussels coming over here and attacking the PM's position is akin to being insulted by a French monarch in the 14th century.

I think there's a flaw in your argument. Cameron recognizes Barroso's power, Farage doesn't.

AlastairMeeks · October 2014

isam said:

audreyanne said:
Very interesting analysis Mike. It won't go down well with the UKIP tub thumpers on here but there is nothing like facts. It'll also be interesting to see if
1. naming the Conservative candidate makes a difference following
2. a full constituency primary
3. having a female
4. the next polls being longer after the Clacton result and
5. the kitchen sink from the Tories compared to the Clacton gimme.

I agree that I make Reckless favourite still, but also that it's on a knife-edge.

I made my bets, and my arguments purely from facts

Ukip won the euros by a distance
Ukip have the incumbent mp
Ukip are 9% ahead in the only poll

What are the facts the conservatives are using? They are REALLY TRYING HARD?

I'm not a Conservative, but to take this on:

1) a lot of people back UKIP at the Euro elections but not otherwise, see 2009/2010.
2) true
3) with the most UKIP-friendly pollster on a nowcast.

There will be a fair amount of tactical voting and this probably won't benefit UKIP overall.

And yes, the Conservatives possibly having a much better ground game than UKIP, who to date in by-elections have generally shown themselves to be enthusiastic but disorganised, potentially really matters.

rottenborough · October 2014

isam said:

audreyanne said:
Very interesting analysis Mike. It won't go down well with the UKIP tub thumpers on here but there is nothing like facts. It'll also be interesting to see if
1. naming the Conservative candidate makes a difference following
2. a full constituency primary
3. having a female
4. the next polls being longer after the Clacton result and
5. the kitchen sink from the Tories compared to the Clacton gimme.

I agree that I make Reckless favourite still, but also that it's on a knife-edge.

I made my bets, and my arguments purely from facts

Ukip won the euros by a distance
Ukip have the incumbent mp
Ukip are 9% ahead in the only poll

What are the facts the conservatives are using? They are REALLY TRYING HARD?

Well, trying really hard, is always a major factor in a by-election. I'll be interested to see if we end up with a lot more UKIP posters and window stickers than Tory ones, thanks in part to shy Tories.

david_herdson · October 2014

Off topic but very relevant to GE2015.

The Beeb ticker has linked to a story in the FT about Osborne and Alexander telling ministers not to go on a spending spree as there's no money for it. Apart from that phraseology having an unfortunate echo of Liam Byrne's note, it strikes me that - if true - this is a very important story about the big battle-lines over which the GE will be fought i.e. the job of fixing Labour's mess is not yet done and it's far too early to hand back the keys to the guys who crashed the car last time. Labour's response will no doubt be that the Tories and Lib Dems have had long enough to fix it and it's their fault if they haven't.

However, the bigger picture would be that if this is the intention, it'll drag the economy back centre-stage and push off Labour's preferred topics of education and the NHS.

blackburn63 · October 2014

The 2 tory candidates look pretty weak, one was advocating an Australian style points based immigration policy which won't go down well at Tory HQ and is a ridiculous stance in a head to head with UKIP.

Morris_Dancer · October 2014

Miss DiCanio, power? He's on his way out.

I also dispute those who think Cameron absolutely will not, under any circumstances, leave or accept a motion to leave, the EU.

He allowed a vote on AV, which he did not want. Far more importantly, he allowed a vote to break up the United Kingdom.

No_Offence_Alan · October 2014

Pulpstar said:
Morning all

I had a dream that the Lib Dems were ahead of the SNP in a Scotland specific constituency poll !

Do you often dream of Orkney and Shetland?

NickPalmer · October 2014

Interesting. The Tories at 3-1 do sound like value.

Indigo said:

Thanks for that, interesting.

I have also been wondering if Cameron might basically be told to p1ss off by the EU forced to come home with nothing, if they feel comfortable in their ability to win a referendum, or are past caring if we stay or go. They dont seem to like him much in Brussels and taking an implacable position would either be a humiliation for Cameron and the UK if the vote is IN, or they get shot of a troublemaker if its OUT.

The EU doesn't work like that - they never go out of their way to humiliate even awkward members. But they certainly don't feel in the mood to do anything special for Britain - Cameron has burned through the goodwill, as we saw with the Juncker thing and the leaked comments by Sikorski, from one of our traditional allies. They'll be pleased to do a deal on benefits (nobody much cares including many of the migrants, contrary to popular belief) and anything that is mainly of interest to the Brits (something nice for the City). But curtail free movement? Nope.

MonikerDiCanio said:

OldKingCole said:
Will Barroso’s comments make people reconsider. Seems to me he’s pointing out the practical difficulties for Cameron, who, for reasons best known to himself, is rapidly painting himself into a corner.
Barroso is a remarkably honest and straight-talking politician. He's exploded Cameron's nonsense on the EU just as he did with the SNP's eurotrash in a previous interview with Marr.

That's right. Doesn't mean he'll be horrible to Cameron, just wants to make it clear that free movement isn't negotiable.

isam · October 2014

The fact that ICMs method would've had labour not far behind surely means the bet is Labour at a three figure price on Betfair?

But we all know it's nonsense, hence labours price

All I would say is that shrewd money moves political markets very quickly, and the Tories have been. 3/1 for over a week despite all on here saying it's massive value

That said I am not as confident as I was... Another poll would be nice!

edmundintokyo · October 2014

Financier said:
@OldKingCole

If you ask yourself why so many immigrants at Calais are desperate to get into the UK and are willing to risk death to get here, then the reason why they do not stay in France, Italy or Spain will become apparent.

Of course if any of these can get a EU passport en route to Calais, then it becomes more difficult to exclude them.

How many are there? The reports I could find said about 2000, which in the grand scheme of things is basically none, and easily accounted for by family and friend connections etc. (People with friends and family in Germany wouldn't need to camp out, they'd just go to Germany.)

rcs1000 · October 2014

I bought Reckless at 1.8, and sold him at 1.4. I have no current positions, but have some out the money orders on Reckless, and would certainly back him at odds longer than 1.5.

That being said, if there is no news, I'd probably put some (small) trading money on the Conservatives (or lay Reckless) around the 1.2 - 1.25 level, if only because there will probably be some good news for the Conservatives between now and election day.

Morris_Dancer · October 2014

Mr. Palmer, those whom the gods wish to destroy they first make mad.

Consider the eurozone sovereign debt crisis resurgent, Germany in recession and the UK, one of very few massive net contributors, leaving the EU.

Already Club Med are trying their best to wriggle free from the constraints of austerity to go on a spending binge the liver of their finances can ill afford, whilst relying on the long-suffering Frau Merkel to pick up the tab if it all goes wrong.

I doubt that full confluence of events will occur (don't think the UK will leave because I doubt we'll have a referendum and, if we did, it's entirely possible it would be lost) but it is not beyond the realms of possibility.

NickPalmer · October 2014

The thing many people are missing about the 2017 referendum idea is that it's not about voting on an agreed treaty. There won't be one in 2017, or anything close to it - nobody who knows the EU, love it or hate it, thinks they work that fast. What we'd vote on in 2017 is a Cameron negotiating package - this is what we hope to get, do you approve having a go on this basis, or shall we withdraw?

Do the Tories offer a second referendum on what we ACTUALLY get? Absolutely not, unless it actually transfers powers the other way. So we'll get to vote on whether we agree with membership on a new semi-detached basis, which I'd expect to pass easily, and then we'll end up with something quite similar to what we've got now.

OldKingCole said:
While unquestionably a lot of Third World (illegal) immigrants look to the UK as the Promised Land, much as many Europeans looked to the US 100 or so years ago, and have given no thought to anywhere else, are there not problems in other “old” EU members with lower-wage-expecting or benefits gaining immigrants from the East, and if so how are they dealing with them?

Germany, Sweden, France and I think Denmark have a lot of immigrants. Are they seen as a “problem”? If not, why not. If so would they not be on Briatin’s side in wanting revision?

I get ghe impression that “immigration” is one thing in the mind of opponents, but in reality a miulti-facted matter.

Sweden and Denmark have immigrant-sceptic parties on 10-20%, though in Sweden in particular they are regarded with loathing by other parties (the Swedish Tories left Government rather than talk to them). France has got the FN which is doing well for lots of reasons including this. Germany is very resistant - xenophobia didn't work out well in living memory. But in all four cases the immigrants that sceptics worry about are generally non-EU, so free movement isn't the issue.

But you're absolutely right the "concerned about immigration" covers lots of attitudes - some economic, some cultural, some racist, with many people only concerned in one way and rejecting the others. People who say "I'm not racist but..." sometimes, perhaps often, genuinely mean it.

blackburn63 said:
I wonder if somebody could give an example of a tactical vote in Rochester.

Labour voters. Assuming the party isn't expected to win, they have a choice of voting Labour (keep the flag flying), Tory (stuff UKIP) or UKIP (stuff the Tories). Hard to predict.

rottenborough · October 2014

david_herdson said:
Off topic but very relevant to GE2015.

The Beeb ticker has linked to a story in the FT about Osborne and Alexander telling ministers not to go on a spending spree as there's no money for it. Apart from that phraseology having an unfortunate echo of Liam Byrne's note, it strikes me that - if true - this is a very important story about the big battle-lines over which the GE will be fought i.e. the job of fixing Labour's mess is not yet done and it's far too early to hand back the keys to the guys who crashed the car last time. Labour's response will no doubt be that the Tories and Lib Dems have had long enough to fix it and it's their fault if they haven't.

However, the bigger picture would be that if this is the intention, it'll drag the economy back centre-stage and push off Labour's preferred topics of education and the NHS.

Interesting. Although rather undermined by Cameron's announcement about tax cuts during his speech. Labour will be able to exploit this come the GE i.e. uncosted tax cuts.

IMHO though the economy and NHS are linked. Unless we can become more entrepreneurial and drive forward innovation and industry we are, as a country, not going to be able to afford the £30+ billion extra the NHS needs with our demographics over next ten or so years. Never mind put in place decent social care. I just don't hear anything from Labour about an industrial policy or Mandelson type stuff about business growth and exports. They need Lord Adonis to be pushed forward and talking about this stuff.

CD13 · October 2014

NP,

Most people won't know who Mr Barroso is. Just some fat-cat from Brussels trying to tell us what to do, and that may be the impression he leaves. I suspect you're right about Cameron's negotiations, though.

Mr Dancer,

While you’re here ... I’ve read the e-tomes you recommended (yours included) and I thought they were rattling good stories which just happened to be in an SF setting.

However, the story wot I wrote is aimed at being proper SF geekery. Despite this, Wild Wolf Publishing have released it on Amazon . If anyone is interested –

UK link:

http://www.amazon.co.uk/Ever-Rolling-Stream-Colin-Davy-ebook/dp/B00OMJK3XO/ref=sr_1_3?ie=UTF8&qid=1413623113&sr=8-3&keywords=an+ever+rolling+stream

US link:

http://www.amazon.com/Ever-Rolling-Stream-Colin-Davy-ebook/dp/B00OMJK3XO/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1413623219&sr=8-1&keywords=an+ever+rolling+stream+colin

To go into paperback if the ratings are good enough. They are a specialist publisher in “dark, edgy” stuff and I thought mine was light and thoughtful. Still, what do I know?

As it is proper scientific stuff, it’s obviously unsuitable for Arts graduates but as the subtitle is “History reborn”, and the hero is a historian, it’s probably OK for an historian to read, even an ancient one, like you.

It does involve stuff like genetic manipulation and skin colour, and global warming, politics and sex, not to mention the world being governed by Nigel Farage.

OK, I’m lying about that last one, but it is the sort of stuff that some on PB fret about.

But it’s no use anyone who graduated from Oxford with a PPE degree trying to understand it, so I won’t even tell them about it.

Here endeth the plug.

blackburn63 · October 2014

NickPalmer said:
The thing many people are missing about the 2017 referendum idea is that it's not about voting on an agreed treaty. There won't be one in 2017, or anything close to it - nobody who knows the EU, love it or hate it, thinks they work that fast. What we'd vote on in 2017 is a Cameron negotiating package - this is what we hope to get, do you approve having a go on this basis, or shall we withdraw?

Do the Tories offer a second referendum on what we ACTUALLY get? Absolutely not, unless it actually transfers powers the other way. So we'll get to vote on whether we agree with membership on a new semi-detached basis, which I'd expect to pass easily, and then we'll end up with something quite similar to what we've got now.

OldKingCole said:
While unquestionably a lot of Third World (illegal) immigrants look to the UK as the Promised Land, much as many Europeans looked to the US 100 or so years ago, and have given no thought to anywhere else, are there not problems in other “old” EU members with lower-wage-expecting or benefits gaining immigrants from the East, and if so how are they dealing with them?

Germany, Sweden, France and I think Denmark have a lot of immigrants. Are they seen as a “problem”? If not, why not. If so would they not be on Briatin’s side in wanting revision?

I get ghe impression that “immigration” is one thing in the mind of opponents, but in reality a miulti-facted matter.
Sweden and Denmark have immigrant-sceptic parties on 10-20%, though in Sweden in particular they are regarded with loathing by other parties (the Swedish Tories left Government rather than talk to them). France has got the FN which is doing well for lots of reasons including this. Germany is very resistant - xenophobia didn't work out well in living memory. But in all four cases the immigrants that sceptics worry about are generally non-EU, so free movement isn't the issue.

But you're absolutely right the "concerned about immigration" covers lots of attitudes - some economic, some cultural, some racist, with many people only concerned in one way and rejecting the others. People who say "I'm not racist but..." sometimes, perhaps often, genuinely mean it.
blackburn63 said:
I wonder if somebody could give an example of a tactical vote in Rochester.
Labour voters. Assuming the party isn't expected to win, they have a choice of voting Labour (keep the flag flying), Tory (stuff UKIP) or UKIP (stuff the Tories). Hard to predict.

The most likely outcome for labour voters is to not bother voting at all. I guess you could call that tactical voting of a kind

rottenborough · October 2014

NickPalmer said:

Labour voters. Assuming the party isn't expected to win, they have a choice of voting Labour (keep the flag flying), Tory (stuff UKIP) or UKIP (stuff the Tories). Hard to predict.

Or they'll just stay at home and let the right slug it out.

rcs1000 · October 2014

Morris_Dancer said:
Already Club Med are trying their best to wriggle free from the constraints of austerity to go on a spending binge the liver of their finances can ill afford, whilst relying on the long-suffering Frau Merkel to pick up the tab if it all goes wrong.

I don't think that's fair. If you read the IMF Fiscal Monitor (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fm/2014/01/pdf/fm1401.pdf), they have estimates of the cyclically adjusted primary balances - i.e., through the cycle are you borrowing or repaying. And these numbers have been (by and large) very accurate historically.

For 2014, their numbers are:

Germany         1.9
France          -0.9
Italy           -1.0
Spain           -0.5
Portugal        1.9
Ireland         0.5
UK              -2.3

Those are (a) not big numbers, and (b) all show dramatically improving trends. (Spain and Ireland were -6% a couple of years.)

The changes that the periphery have asked for has been - essentially - to slow the pace of austerity, not to dramatically increase spending.

I would also point out that Irish debt-to-GDP is falling; Portugal will probably peak this quarter, and Italy should start to decline from the middle of next year.

Ninoinoz · October 2014

rottenborough said:

isam said:

audreyanne said:
Very interesting analysis Mike. It won't go down well with the UKIP tub thumpers on here but there is nothing like facts. It'll also be interesting to see if
1. naming the Conservative candidate makes a difference following
2. a full constituency primary
3. having a female
4. the next polls being longer after the Clacton result and
5. the kitchen sink from the Tories compared to the Clacton gimme.

I agree that I make Reckless favourite still, but also that it's on a knife-edge.

I made my bets, and my arguments purely from facts

Ukip won the euros by a distance
Ukip have the incumbent mp
Ukip are 9% ahead in the only poll

What are the facts the conservatives are using? They are REALLY TRYING HARD?

Well, trying really hard, is always a major factor in a by-election. I'll be interested to see if we end up with a lot more UKIP posters and window stickers than Tory ones, thanks in part to shy Tories.

I urge all Tories to put a Conservative poster in their window.

That way the Ukippers know whom to target when knocking on doors.

isam · October 2014

antifrank said:

isam said:

audreyanne said:
Very interesting analysis Mike. It won't go down well with the UKIP tub thumpers on here but there is nothing like facts. It'll also be interesting to see if
1. naming the Conservative candidate makes a difference following
2. a full constituency primary
3. having a female
4. the next polls being longer after the Clacton result and
5. the kitchen sink from the Tories compared to the Clacton gimme.

I agree that I make Reckless favourite still, but also that it's on a knife-edge.

I made my bets, and my arguments purely from facts

Ukip won the euros by a distance
Ukip have the incumbent mp
Ukip are 9% ahead in the only poll

What are the facts the conservatives are using? They are REALLY TRYING HARD?

I'm not a Conservative, but to take this on:

1) a lot of people back UKIP at the Euro elections but not otherwise, see 2009/2010.
2) true
3) with the most UKIP-friendly pollster on a nowcast.

There will be a fair amount of tactical voting and this probably won't benefit UKIP overall.

And yes, the Conservatives possibly having a much better ground game than UKIP, who to date in by-elections have generally shown themselves to be enthusiastic but disorganised, potentially really matters.

Trying very hard here to be nonpartisan... I am obviously intrigued by the betting being in the game... I'm on Ukip at even money so could get out easy enough, but I want to see some evidence that isn't based on what I consider to be hope from conservatives or people that hate Ukip. £250 isnt going to change my life, I'd rather lose £250 and Ukip win I am genuinely looking for a positive reason to back conservatives

The two conservative candidates were on Sunday politics yesterday and were so crap they were taken the piss out if by the way

I will stick my neck on the line and say people who disregard the 2014 euro results on the basis of what happened in 2009/10 will come a cropper in May.

Also the fact that Carswell won so easily is making people think reckless is failing, but he is being judged against a record win... If he is even 7% ahead in the polls then 2/7 is not too short

Also Ukip won a nearby council election on a decent swing last week

But as I say the feeling that 3/1 is big is beginning to resonate.. I just don't know why .. Prob cos I'm on here and everyone says it! But why is it still 3/1 if it's such massive value? Whys no one smashing it?

Ninoinoz · October 2014

rottenborough said:
Morning all,

I think Tories will hold Rochester and I've put my money where my mouth is. So Mike's Survation analysis is heartening from a betting point of view. A UKIP win would of course be far more entertaining as the big parties have a collective nervous breakdown 4 months before the big poll.

Perhaps, as it's only a by-election, people might vote for UKIP for precisely this reason.

MonikerDiCanio · October 2014

Ninoinoz said:

rottenborough said:

isam said:

audreyanne said:
Very interesting analysis Mike. It won't go down well with the UKIP tub thumpers on here but there is nothing like facts. It'll also be interesting to see if
1. naming the Conservative candidate makes a difference following
2. a full constituency primary
3. having a female
4. the next polls being longer after the Clacton result and
5. the kitchen sink from the Tories compared to the Clacton gimme.

I agree that I make Reckless favourite still, but also that it's on a knife-edge.

I made my bets, and my arguments purely from facts

Ukip won the euros by a distance
Ukip have the incumbent mp
Ukip are 9% ahead in the only poll

What are the facts the conservatives are using? They are REALLY TRYING HARD?

Well, trying really hard, is always a major factor in a by-election. I'll be interested to see if we end up with a lot more UKIP posters and window stickers than Tory ones, thanks in part to shy Tories.
I urge all Tories to put a Conservative poster in their window.

That way the Ukippers know whom to target when knocking on doors.

Nice to see our Labouristes have't learnt the lesson from the near disaster of Heywood & Middleton. Doomed.

JohnLoony · October 2014

BASIC LESSON FOR STUPID IDIOTIC JOURNALISTS
the names of Portuguese people are pronounced according to the rules of pronouncing things in the Portuguese language!!! #Grrrrrrr....

Numerous TV journalists (Marr yesterday, Whatsername just now) are *STILL* referring to the outgoing EU Commission President as "Hosé Manuel Barroso" even though they have already had TEN YEARS to get used to learning the basic fact that his name is Jose not Hosé.

Morris_Dancer · October 2014

Mr. 13, thanks for your kind words.

For Sir Edric, that was definitely the aim (helped by one of my beta readers not really liking fantasy).

Reading two books and beta-reading another at the minute, but I think I should have time later this month. I'll download the sample now (well, when my Kindle's recharged) so I don't forget it. (Hopefully. There's a ton of stuff on there for me to read).

Congrats on getting published

isam · October 2014

Carswell is giving it to the Tories now... Maybe the treatment of Reckless is voting him up?

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/government-thinks-love-actually-is-a-manual-for-how-to-run-the-country-says-douglas-carswell-9805067.html

AlastairMeeks · October 2014

isam said:

antifrank said:

isam said:

audreyanne said:
Very interesting analysis Mike. It won't go down well with the UKIP tub thumpers on here but there is nothing like facts. It'll also be interesting to see if
1. naming the Conservative candidate makes a difference following
2. a full constituency primary
3. having a female
4. the next polls being longer after the Clacton result and
5. the kitchen sink from the Tories compared to the Clacton gimme.

I agree that I make Reckless favourite still, but also that it's on a knife-edge.

I made my bets, and my arguments purely from facts

Ukip won the euros by a distance
Ukip have the incumbent mp
Ukip are 9% ahead in the only poll

What are the facts the conservatives are using? They are REALLY TRYING HARD?

I'm not a Conservative, but to take this on:

1) a lot of people back UKIP at the Euro elections but not otherwise, see 2009/2010.
2) true
3) with the most UKIP-friendly pollster on a nowcast.

There will be a fair amount of tactical voting and this probably won't benefit UKIP overall.

And yes, the Conservatives possibly having a much better ground game than UKIP, who to date in by-elections have generally shown themselves to be enthusiastic but disorganised, potentially really matters.
Trying very hard here to be nonpartisan... I am obviously intrigued by the betting being in the game... I'm on Ukip at even money so could get out easy enough, but I want to see some evidence that isn't based on what I consider to be hope from conservatives or people that hate Ukip. £250 isnt going to change my life, I'd rather lose £250 and Ukip win I am genuinely looking for a positive reason to back conservatives

The two conservative candidates were on Sunday politics yesterday and were so crap they were taken the piss out if by the way

I will stick my neck on the line and say people who disregard the 2014 euro results on the basis of what happened in 2009/10 will come a cropper in May.

Also the fact that Carswell won so easily is making people think reckless is failing, but he is being judged against a record win... If he is even 7% ahead in the polls then 2/7 is not too short

Also Ukip won a nearby council election on a decent swing last week

But as I say the feeling that 3/1 is big is beginning to resonate.. I just don't know why .. Prob cos I'm on here and everyone says it! But why is it still 3/1 if it's such massive value? Whys no one smashing it?

On the Euro election point, I might as easily have written "see Euro election 2014/local election 2014".

Be very wary of constituency polls in general, not just this one. The pollsters just don't have the same experience of demographic weighting by constituency as they do nationally. They will make more mistakes as a result.

isam · October 2014

Here is the friendliest interview involving Ukip and immigration ever conducted

http://youtu.be/XkqZAE-mus0

isam · October 2014

antifrank said:

isam said:

antifrank said:

isam said:

audreyanne said:
Very interesting analysis Mike. It won't go down well with the UKIP tub thumpers on here but there is nothing like facts. It'll also be interesting to see if
1. naming the Conservative candidate makes a difference following
2. a full constituency primary
3. having a female
4. the next polls being longer after the Clacton result and
5. the kitchen sink from the Tories compared to the Clacton gimme.

I agree that I make Reckless favourite still, but also that it's on a knife-edge.

I made my bets, and my arguments purely from facts

Ukip won the euros by a distance
Ukip have the incumbent mp
Ukip are 9% ahead in the only poll

What are the facts the conservatives are using? They are REALLY TRYING HARD?

I'm not a Conservative, but to take this on:

1) a lot of people back UKIP at the Euro elections but not otherwise, see 2009/2010.
2) true
3) with the most UKIP-friendly pollster on a nowcast.

There will be a fair amount of tactical voting and this probably won't benefit UKIP overall.

And yes, the Conservatives possibly having a much better ground game than UKIP, who to date in by-elections have generally shown themselves to be enthusiastic but disorganised, potentially really matters.

The two conservative candidates were on Sunday politics yesterday and were so crap they were taken the piss out if by the way

I will stick my neck on the line and say people who disregard the 2014 euro results on the basis of what happened in 2009/10 will come a cropper in May.

Also the fact that Carswell won so easily is making people think reckless is failing, but he is being judged against a record win... If he is even 7% ahead in the polls then 2/7 is not too short

Also Ukip won a nearby council election on a decent swing last week

But as I say the feeling that 3/1 is big is beginning to resonate.. I just don't know why .. Prob cos I'm on here and everyone says it! But why is it still 3/1 if it's such massive value? Whys no one smashing it?
On the Euro election point, I might as easily have written "see Euro election 2014/local election 2014".

Be very wary of constituency polls in general, not just this one. The pollsters just don't have the same experience of demographic weighting by constituency as they do nationally. They will make more mistakes as a result.

So, in friendly terms, I ask what are the positive reasons for backing the conservatives that are rooted in evidence?

You don't trust the euro results or the survation poll, fair enough, so it comes down to the Tories wanting it more?

isam · October 2014

rcs1000 said:
Morris_Dancer said:
Already Club Med are trying their best to wriggle free from the constraints of austerity to go on a spending binge the liver of their finances can ill afford, whilst relying on the long-suffering Frau Merkel to pick up the tab if it all goes wrong.
I don't think that's fair. If you read the IMF Fiscal Monitor (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fm/2014/01/pdf/fm1401.pdf), they have estimates of the cyclically adjusted primary balances - i.e., through the cycle are you borrowing or repaying. And these numbers have been (by and large) very accurate historically.

For 2014, their numbers are:
Germany         1.9
France          -0.9
Italy           -1.0
Spain           -0.5
Portugal        1.9
Ireland         0.5
UK              -2.3
Those are (a) not big numbers, and (b) all show dramatically improving trends. (Spain and Ireland were -6% a couple of years.)

The changes that the periphery have asked for has been - essentially - to slow the pace of austerity, not to dramatically increase spending.

I would also point out that Irish debt-to-GDP is falling; Portugal will probably peak this quarter, and Italy should start to decline from the middle of next year.

If I'd have been betting on who would use a yellow box id have had Audrey Anne as fav!

rcs1000 · October 2014

isam said:
rcs1000 said:
Morris_Dancer said:
Already Club Med are trying their best to wriggle free from the constraints of austerity to go on a spending binge the liver of their finances can ill afford, whilst relying on the long-suffering Frau Merkel to pick up the tab if it all goes wrong.
I don't think that's fair. If you read the IMF Fiscal Monitor (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fm/2014/01/pdf/fm1401.pdf), they have estimates of the cyclically adjusted primary balances - i.e., through the cycle are you borrowing or repaying. And these numbers have been (by and large) very accurate historically.

For 2014, their numbers are:
Germany         1.9
France          -0.9
Italy           -1.0
Spain           -0.5
Portugal        1.9
Ireland         0.5
UK              -2.3
Those are (a) not big numbers, and (b) all show dramatically improving trends. (Spain and Ireland were -6% a couple of years.)

The changes that the periphery have asked for has been - essentially - to slow the pace of austerity, not to dramatically increase spending.

I would also point out that Irish debt-to-GDP is falling; Portugal will probably peak this quarter, and Italy should start to decline from the middle of next year.
If I'd have been getting on who would use a yellow box id have had Audrey Anne as fav!

Whatever happened the yellow box man AveryLP???

Peter_the_Punter · October 2014

blackburn63 said:
UKIP are the equivalent of 2/7 on betfair, anybody who thinks this is on a knife edge should fill their boots and lay UKIP

Can't believe the obsession with tactical voting on here, people assuming the wider electorate is as obsessed with politics as a few dozen on here.

Most of the billy bunters on here have been saying for a long time that 2/7 is way too short.

As for your second point, my impression is that UKIP voters tend to vote for UKIP because they want UKIP. It's hard to predict how the Labour vote will break but any evidence of tactical voting for the Tories to keep UKIP out would be unusual, surprising, and a very significant pointer for the GE.

rottenborough · October 2014

MonikerDiCanio said:

Ninoinoz said:

rottenborough said:

isam said:

audreyanne said:
Very interesting analysis Mike. It won't go down well with the UKIP tub thumpers on here but there is nothing like facts. It'll also be interesting to see if
1. naming the Conservative candidate makes a difference following
2. a full constituency primary
3. having a female
4. the next polls being longer after the Clacton result and
5. the kitchen sink from the Tories compared to the Clacton gimme.

I agree that I make Reckless favourite still, but also that it's on a knife-edge.

I made my bets, and my arguments purely from facts

Ukip won the euros by a distance
Ukip have the incumbent mp
Ukip are 9% ahead in the only poll

What are the facts the conservatives are using? They are REALLY TRYING HARD?

Well, trying really hard, is always a major factor in a by-election. I'll be interested to see if we end up with a lot more UKIP posters and window stickers than Tory ones, thanks in part to shy Tories.
I urge all Tories to put a Conservative poster in their window.

That way the Ukippers know whom to target when knocking on doors.
Nice to see our Labouristes have't learnt the lesson from the near disaster of Heywood & Middleton. Doomed.

I'm not a Labourist, I'm a political better. I was merely pointing out what might happen wrt to posters and shy Tories. Its far too early to say anyone is "doomed" in this one, other than the LibDems who'll probably lose another deposit.

isam · October 2014

rottenborough said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Ninoinoz said:

rottenborough said:

isam said:

audreyanne said:
Very interesting analysis Mike. It won't go down well with the UKIP tub thumpers on here but there is nothing like facts. It'll also be interesting to see if
1. naming the Conservative candidate makes a difference following
2. a full constituency primary
3. having a female
4. the next polls being longer after the Clacton result and
5. the kitchen sink from the Tories compared to the Clacton gimme.

I agree that I make Reckless favourite still, but also that it's on a knife-edge.

I made my bets, and my arguments purely from facts

Ukip won the euros by a distance
Ukip have the incumbent mp
Ukip are 9% ahead in the only poll

What are the facts the conservatives are using? They are REALLY TRYING HARD?

Well, trying really hard, is always a major factor in a by-election. I'll be interested to see if we end up with a lot more UKIP posters and window stickers than Tory ones, thanks in part to shy Tories.
I urge all Tories to put a Conservative poster in their window.

That way the Ukippers know whom to target when knocking on doors.
Nice to see our Labouristes have't learnt the lesson from the near disaster of Heywood & Middleton. Doomed.
I'm not a Labourist, I'm a political better. I was merely pointing out what might happen wrt to posters and shy Tories. Its far too early to say anyone is "doomed" in this one, other than the LibDems who'll probably lose another deposit.

Shy Tories? In a seat they won at the last election?

audreyanne · October 2014

DavidL said:
The key to Rochester surely has to be the 13,600 Labour voters. If they vote tactically en masse for Reckless then he can afford to get a much smaller share of the tory vote. If they vote to keep UKIP out he has no chance whatsoever.

This is very interesting. If the Labour share drops and UKIP win the Conservatives have their get-out-of-jail card. It may not be pretty but it will just about save their face. My guess is that Labour voters would mostly abstain rather than vote UKIP.

Millsy said:
You can still get 3/1 for the Tories in Rochester with selected bookmakers

Outstanding odds regardless of your political persuasion. Has to be one of the bets of the year. They may not win but they're not out at 3/1.

audreyanne · October 2014

isam said:

antifrank said:

isam said:

antifrank said:

isam said:

audreyanne said:
Very interesting analysis Mike. It won't go down well with the UKIP tub thumpers on here but there is nothing like facts. It'll also be interesting to see if
1. naming the Conservative candidate makes a difference following
2. a full constituency primary
3. having a female
4. the next polls being longer after the Clacton result and
5. the kitchen sink from the Tories compared to the Clacton gimme.

I agree that I make Reckless favourite still, but also that it's on a knife-edge.

I made my bets, and my arguments purely from facts

Ukip won the euros by a distance
Ukip have the incumbent mp
Ukip are 9% ahead in the only poll

What are the facts the conservatives are using? They are REALLY TRYING HARD?

I'm not a Conservative, but to take this on:

1) a lot of people back UKIP at the Euro elections but not otherwise, see 2009/2010.
2) true
3) with the most UKIP-friendly pollster on a nowcast.

There will be a fair amount of tactical voting and this probably won't benefit UKIP overall.

And yes, the Conservatives possibly having a much better ground game than UKIP, who to date in by-elections have generally shown themselves to be enthusiastic but disorganised, potentially really matters.

The two conservative candidates were on Sunday politics yesterday and were so crap they were taken the piss out if by the way

I will stick my neck on the line and say people who disregard the 2014 euro results on the basis of what happened in 2009/10 will come a cropper in May.

Also the fact that Carswell won so easily is making people think reckless is failing, but he is being judged against a record win... If he is even 7% ahead in the polls then 2/7 is not too short

Also Ukip won a nearby council election on a decent swing last week

But as I say the feeling that 3/1 is big is beginning to resonate.. I just don't know why .. Prob cos I'm on here and everyone says it! But why is it still 3/1 if it's such massive value? Whys no one smashing it?
On the Euro election point, I might as easily have written "see Euro election 2014/local election 2014".

Be very wary of constituency polls in general, not just this one. The pollsters just don't have the same experience of demographic weighting by constituency as they do nationally. They will make more mistakes as a result.
So, in friendly terms, I ask what are the positive reasons for backing the conservatives that are rooted in evidence?

You don't trust the euro results or the survation poll, fair enough, so it comes down to the Tories wanting it more?

I've given you five solid factual reasons at the start of the thread.

rcs1000 · October 2014

audreyanne said:

DavidL said:
The key to Rochester surely has to be the 13,600 Labour voters. If they vote tactically en masse for Reckless then he can afford to get a much smaller share of the tory vote. If they vote to keep UKIP out he has no chance whatsoever.

This is very interesting. If the Labour share drops and UKIP win the Conservatives have their get-out-of-jail card. It may not be pretty but it will just about save their face. My guess is that Labour voters would mostly abstain rather than vote UKIP.
Millsy said:
You can still get 3/1 for the Tories in Rochester with selected bookmakers
Outstanding odds regardless of your political persuasion. Has to be one of the bets of the year. They may not win but they're not out at 3/1.

3/1 is not value of the Conservatives do not win.

audreyanne · October 2014

rcs1000 said:

audreyanne said:

DavidL said:
The key to Rochester surely has to be the 13,600 Labour voters. If they vote tactically en masse for Reckless then he can afford to get a much smaller share of the tory vote. If they vote to keep UKIP out he has no chance whatsoever.

This is very interesting. If the Labour share drops and UKIP win the Conservatives have their get-out-of-jail card. It may not be pretty but it will just about save their face. My guess is that Labour voters would mostly abstain rather than vote UKIP.
Millsy said:
You can still get 3/1 for the Tories in Rochester with selected bookmakers
Outstanding odds regardless of your political persuasion. Has to be one of the bets of the year. They may not win but they're not out at 3/1.
3/1 is not value of the Conservatives do not win.

Really? I never knew that's what betting meant ...

bigjohnowls · October 2014

MonikerDiCanio said:

Ninoinoz said:

rottenborough said:

isam said:

audreyanne said:
Very interesting analysis Mike. It won't go down well with the UKIP tub thumpers on here but there is nothing like facts. It'll also be interesting to see if
1. naming the Conservative candidate makes a difference following
2. a full constituency primary
3. having a female
4. the next polls being longer after the Clacton result and
5. the kitchen sink from the Tories compared to the Clacton gimme.

I agree that I make Reckless favourite still, but also that it's on a knife-edge.

I made my bets, and my arguments purely from facts

Ukip won the euros by a distance
Ukip have the incumbent mp
Ukip are 9% ahead in the only poll

What are the facts the conservatives are using? They are REALLY TRYING HARD?

Well, trying really hard, is always a major factor in a by-election. I'll be interested to see if we end up with a lot more UKIP posters and window stickers than Tory ones, thanks in part to shy Tories.
I urge all Tories to put a Conservative poster in their window.

That way the Ukippers know whom to target when knocking on doors.
Nice to see our Labouristes have't learnt the lesson from the near disaster of Heywood & Middleton. Doomed.

Where LAB vote share increased.

isam · October 2014

audreyanne said:

isam said:

antifrank said:

isam said:

antifrank said:

isam said:

audreyanne said:
Very interesting analysis Mike. It won't go down well with the UKIP tub thumpers on here but there is nothing like facts. It'll also be interesting to see if
1. naming the Conservative candidate makes a difference following
2. a full constituency primary
3. having a female
4. the next polls being longer after the Clacton result and
5. the kitchen sink from the Tories compared to the Clacton gimme.

I agree that I make Reckless favourite still, but also that it's on a knife-edge.

I made my bets, and my arguments purely from facts

Ukip won the euros by a distance
Ukip have the incumbent mp
Ukip are 9% ahead in the only poll

What are the facts the conservatives are using? They are REALLY TRYING HARD?

I'm not a Conservative, but to take this on:

1) a lot of people back UKIP at the Euro elections but not otherwise, see 2009/2010.
2) true
3) with the most UKIP-friendly pollster on a nowcast.

There will be a fair amount of tactical voting and this probably won't benefit UKIP overall.

And yes, the Conservatives possibly having a much better ground game than UKIP, who to date in by-elections have generally shown themselves to be enthusiastic but disorganised, potentially really matters.

The two conservative candidates were on Sunday politics yesterday and were so crap they were taken the piss out if by the way

Also the fact that Carswell won so easily is making people think reckless is failing, but he is being judged against a record win... If he is even 7% ahead in the polls then 2/7 is not too short

But as I say the feeling that 3/1 is big is beginning to resonate.. I just don't know why .. Prob cos I'm on here and everyone says it! But why is it still 3/1 if it's such massive value? Whys no one smashing it?
On the Euro election point, I might as easily have written "see Euro election 2014/local election 2014".

Be very wary of constituency polls in general, not just this one. The pollsters just don't have the same experience of demographic weighting by constituency as they do nationally. They will make more mistakes as a result.
So, in friendly terms, I ask what are the positive reasons for backing the conservatives that are rooted in evidence?

You don't trust the euro results or the survation poll, fair enough, so it comes down to the Tories wanting it more?
I've given you five solid factual reasons at the start of the thread.

No they were your views and they were mostly related.. All predicated on the public agreeing with the things you think are a good idea

Far from solid. Pure opinion

AlastairMeeks · October 2014

isam said:

antifrank said:

isam said:

antifrank said:

I'm not a Conservative, but to take this on:

1) a lot of people back UKIP at the Euro elections but not otherwise, see 2009/2010.
2) true
3) with the most UKIP-friendly pollster on a nowcast.

There will be a fair amount of tactical voting and this probably won't benefit UKIP overall.

And yes, the Conservatives possibly having a much better ground game than UKIP, who to date in by-elections have generally shown themselves to be enthusiastic but disorganised, potentially really matters.

The two conservative candidates were on Sunday politics yesterday and were so crap they were taken the piss out if by the way

I will stick my neck on the line and say people who disregard the 2014 euro results on the basis of what happened in 2009/10 will come a cropper in May.

Also the fact that Carswell won so easily is making people think reckless is failing, but he is being judged against a record win... If he is even 7% ahead in the polls then 2/7 is not too short

Also Ukip won a nearby council election on a decent swing last week

But as I say the feeling that 3/1 is big is beginning to resonate.. I just don't know why .. Prob cos I'm on here and everyone says it! But why is it still 3/1 if it's such massive value? Whys no one smashing it?
On the Euro election point, I might as easily have written "see Euro election 2014/local election 2014".

Be very wary of constituency polls in general, not just this one. The pollsters just don't have the same experience of demographic weighting by constituency as they do nationally. They will make more mistakes as a result.
So, in friendly terms, I ask what are the positive reasons for backing the conservatives that are rooted in evidence?

You don't trust the euro results or the survation poll, fair enough, so it comes down to the Tories wanting it more?

I'm cautious about this by-election. I make UKIP favourite, but not by that much. Why? Because they have a fairly small lead in the only poll taken (by UKIP's most friendly pollster) and there are lots of other voters for a well-organised campaign to get after.

But I'm watching this by-election for pointers rather than making confident predictions.

audreyanne · October 2014

Peter_the_Punter said:

blackburn63 said:
UKIP are the equivalent of 2/7 on betfair, anybody who thinks this is on a knife edge should fill their boots and lay UKIP

Can't believe the obsession with tactical voting on here, people assuming the wider electorate is as obsessed with politics as a few dozen on here.
Most of the billy bunters on here have been saying for a long time that 2/7 is way too short.

As for your second point, my impression is that UKIP voters tend to vote for UKIP because they want UKIP. It's hard to predict how the Labour vote will break but any evidence of tactical voting for the Tories to keep UKIP out would be unusual, surprising, and a very significant pointer for the GE.

Unusual for me to agree with you but I think you're right. I'd love to see a preferential vote opinion poll: that might give an indication. I would definitely vote LibDem, and probably Labour, in order to keep out UKIP who I think would destroy everything this country stands for.

audreyanne · October 2014

isam said:

audreyanne said:

isam said:

antifrank said:

isam said:

antifrank said:

isam said:

audreyanne said:
Very interesting analysis Mike. It won't go down well with the UKIP tub thumpers on here but there is nothing like facts. It'll also be interesting to see if
1. naming the Conservative candidate makes a difference following
2. a full constituency primary
3. having a female
4. the next polls being longer after the Clacton result and
5. the kitchen sink from the Tories compared to the Clacton gimme.

I'm not a Conservative, but to take this on:

1) a lot of people back UKIP at the Euro elections but not otherwise, see 2009/2010.
2) true
3) with the most UKIP-friendly pollster on a nowcast.

.

?
On the Euro election point, I might as easily have written "see Euro election 2014/local election 2014".

Be very wary of constituency polls in general, not just this one. The pollsters just don't have the same experience of demographic weighting by constituency as they do nationally. They will make more mistakes as a result.
So, in friendly terms, I ask what are the positive reasons for backing the conservatives that are rooted in evidence?

You don't trust the euro results or the survation poll, fair enough, so it comes down to the Tories wanting it more?
I've given you five solid factual reasons at the start of the thread.
No they were your views and they were mostly related.. All predicated on the public agreeing with the things you think are a good idea

Far from solid. Pure opinion
… Edited to above ...

anotherDave · October 2014

blackburn63 said:
UKIP are the equivalent of 2/7 on betfair, anybody who thinks this is on a knife edge should fill their boots and lay UKIP

Can't believe the obsession with tactical voting on here, people assuming the wider electorate is as obsessed with politics as a few dozen on here.

If the photos on twitter are indicative, the Conservative Party candidate hustings failed to fill a 250 seat venue, after a mailshot to all registered voters.

DavidBrackenbury · October 2014

FalseFlag said:

DavidBrackenbury said:

Floater said:
Interesting little story

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/sweden/11173033/Sweden-hunts-for-suspected-Russian-submarine-in-Cold-War-style-drama.html
Yes, very interesting. Not all the Russian Submarine Fleet is in great condition and i wonder if something has failed. I hope that we are not going to see another "Kursk" with a crew full of sailors trapped on the bottom. The Russians denied that until it was too late as well!
The Kursk was rammed by a US sub, the Russians agreed to not make an issue out of it, cover it up and not start a war. Some countries are responsible like that.

That allegation was made soon after the event. No evidence was ever brought forward and the official enquiry blamed a malfunctioning torpedo. This was 2000. No one was even thinking about starting a war...

audreyanne · October 2014

isam said:

audreyanne said:

isam said:

antifrank said:

isam said:

antifrank said:

isam said:

audreyanne said:
Very interesting analysis Mike. It won't go down well with the UKIP tub thumpers on here but there is nothing like facts. It'll also be interesting to see if
1. naming the Conservative candidate makes a difference following
2. a full constituency primary
3. having a female
4. the next polls being longer after the Clacton result and
5. the kitchen sink from the Tories compared to the Clacton gimme.

I agree that I make Reckless favourite still, but also that it's on a knife-edge.

I'm not a Conservative, but to take this on:

1) a lot of people back UKIP at the Euro elections but not otherwise, see 2009/2010.
2) true
3) with the most UKIP-friendly pollster on a nowcast.

There will be a fair amount of tactical voting and this probably won't benefit UKIP overall.

And yes, the Conservatives possibly having a much better ground game than UKIP, who to date in by-elections have generally shown themselves to be enthusiastic but disorganised, potentially really matters.

On the Euro election point, I might as easily have written "see Euro election 2014/local election 2014".

Be very wary of constituency polls in general, not just this one. The pollsters just don't have the same experience of demographic weighting by constituency as they do nationally. They will make more mistakes as a result.
So, in friendly terms, I ask what are the positive reasons for backing the conservatives that are rooted in evidence?

You don't trust the euro results or the survation poll, fair enough, so it comes down to the Tories wanting it more?
I've given you five solid factual reasons at the start of the thread.
No they were your views and they were mostly related.. All predicated on the public agreeing with the things you think are a good idea

Far from solid. Pure opinion

If you want to get all Kantian on me there's no such thing as a fact. Everything is opinion.

What I said was:

It'll also be interesting to see if:

1. naming the Conservative candidate makes a difference following
2. a full constituency primary
3. having a female
4. the next polls being longer after the Clacton result and
5. the kitchen sink from the Tories compared to the Clacton gimme.

Five solid 'reasons' then for thinking 3/1 is too long on the Conservatives, or that 78% UKIP is far too short.

isam · October 2014

audreyanne said:

isam said:

audreyanne said:

isam said:

antifrank said:

isam said:

antifrank said:

isam said:

audreyanne said:
Very interesting analysis Mike. It won't go down well with the UKIP tub thumpers on here but there is nothing like facts. It'll also be interesting to see if
1. naming the Conservative candidate makes a difference following
2. a full constituency primary
3. having a female
4. the next polls being longer after the Clacton result and
5. the kitchen sink from the Tories compared to the Clacton gimme.

I'm not a Conservative, but to take this on:

1) a lot of people back UKIP at the Euro elections but not otherwise, see 2009/2010.
2) true
3) with the most UKIP-friendly pollster on a nowcast.

.

?
On the Euro election point, I might as easily have written "see Euro election 2014/local election 2014".

Be very wary of constituency polls in general, not just this one. The pollsters just don't have the same experience of demographic weighting by constituency as they do nationally. They will make more mistakes as a result.
So, in friendly terms, I ask what are the positive reasons for backing the conservatives that are rooted in evidence?

You don't trust the euro results or the survation poll, fair enough, so it comes down to the Tories wanting it more?
I've given you five solid factual reasons at the start of the thread.
No they were your views and they were mostly related.. All predicated on the public agreeing with the things you think are a good idea

Far from solid. Pure opinion
If you want to get all Kantian on me there's no such thing as a fact. Everything is opinion.

What I said was:

It'll also be interesting to see if:

1. naming the Conservative candidate makes a difference following
2. a full constituency primary
3. having a female
4. the next polls being longer after the Clacton result and
5. the kitchen sink from the Tories compared to the Clacton gimme.

Five solid 'reasons' then for thinking 3/1 is too long on the Conservatives.
They are not solid reasons, they're your opinion. Nothing wrong with that and you might be right but I can't make bets on the back of the hopes of a Tory who is rabidly against Ukip.

MaxPB · October 2014

rcs1000 said:
Morris_Dancer said:
Already Club Med are trying their best to wriggle free from the constraints of austerity to go on a spending binge the liver of their finances can ill afford, whilst relying on the long-suffering Frau Merkel to pick up the tab if it all goes wrong.
I don't think that's fair. If you read the IMF Fiscal Monitor (http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fm/2014/01/pdf/fm1401.pdf), they have estimates of the cyclically adjusted primary balances - i.e., through the cycle are you borrowing or repaying. And these numbers have been (by and large) very accurate historically.

For 2014, their numbers are:
Germany         1.9
France          -0.9
Italy           -1.0
Spain           -0.5
Portugal        1.9
Ireland         0.5
UK              -2.3
Those are (a) not big numbers, and (b) all show dramatically improving trends. (Spain and Ireland were -6% a couple of years.)

The changes that the periphery have asked for has been - essentially - to slow the pace of austerity, not to dramatically increase spending.

I would also point out that Irish debt-to-GDP is falling; Portugal will probably peak this quarter, and Italy should start to decline from the middle of next year.

Not if Portugal and Italy fall into the deflation trap. I can't see how either of these countries will start to reduce their debt to GDP during a deflationary period, neither is running an outright surplus and neither has seen anything above anaemic growth, Italy especially. Ireland has a very specific set of circumstances that has led to its recovery, I do not think they are easily replicated on the continent other than emigration.

Sean_F · October 2014

WRT tactical voting, it's worth remembering Com Res found 16% of Labour supporters who'd consider voting UKIP, compared to 5% who'd consider voting Conservative.

isam · October 2014

The primary vote returns will surely be a great indicator of Tory chances? I take it they will be publicly available?

Is it fair to say it will overwhelmingly be Tory voters who bother to respond?

Peter_the_Punter · October 2014

@RCS

"I bought Reckless at 1.8..."

But he was available at 2.2...for a long time, Robert. Tut, tut. You should listen to your Old Man more.

Seriously, I make Reckless a 4/6 chance. David H gives a good run down of the reasons to bet against him. He overlooks the Clacton effect and improved standing of UKIP in the national polls, but the basic idea is right.

This should be a close contest and the prices aren't reflecting that yet.

audreyanne · October 2014

Yes but Isam may I suggest that unlike you I try not to let it cloud my betting judgement. I've said on this thread and previously that, like Mike, I still make Reckless favourite. Just not 78% favourite.

Most of my best winning bets have occurred when I have bet against my personal tastes. They have proved to be my real winners. I'll tantalise you with one example: I've twice won well on Arsenal as title winners which for a Spurs supporter takes some doing.

rcs1000 · October 2014

MaxPB said:
Not if Portugal and Italy fall into the deflation trap. I can't see how either of these countries will start to reduce their debt to GDP during a deflationary period, neither is running an outright surplus and neither has seen anything above anaemic growth, Italy especially. Ireland has a very specific set of circumstances that has led to its recovery, I do not think they are easily replicated on the continent other than emigration.

That's not true of Portugal. Last quarter (2Q), Portugal was one of the stars in the Eurozone, with 0.6% GDP growth (equivalent to 2.6% annual), second only behind Ireland. In fact, it's worth remembering that the top three Eurzone countries in 2Q GDP growth were all PIIGS - Ireland, Portugal and Spain. Which are - not uncoincidentally - the three countries which took the deficit reduction and reform medicine. Portugal is now second in the whole of Europe for FDI, having leapfrogged the UK and much of Eastern Europe. Spain, by the way, is now third (also ahead of the UK).

Italy, I would tend to agree with. It has a largely unreformed labour market, and high levels of government debt. That being said, it has a reform minded prime minister, and the Italian state has vast amounts of assets that could be sold (easily 40% of GDP), as - unlike the UK, Germany, France, etc. - Italy never went through the 1980s privatisation phase that much of the rest of Europe did. I would also point out that the data from the temporary staffing agencies (Adecco and Randstat) show a rapid improvement in underlying demand in Italy. If you hang on, I'll find them...

Finally, I'd point out that the ECB is now committed to QE - albeit through ABS and direct loans to banks rather than through naked purchases of government bonds - so the likelihood of deflation is lower than it was six moths ago. (As an aside, I'd point out that one of the reasons why the Eurozone has slid towards deflation this year is because the ECB removed massive amounts of money from the system. Essentially the balance sheet of the ECB contracted by around €1trn from peak, draining a lot of liquidity and reducing money in circulation.)

Artist · October 2014

The Survation poll has 2010 Labour voters breaking 19% to UKIP and 3% to Conservatives. Should be enough to take Reckless over the line this time, but next May will be interesting.

nigel4england · October 2014

audreyanne said:
Yes but Isam may I suggest that unlike you I try not to let it cloud my betting judgement. I've said on this thread and previously that, like Mike, I still make Reckless favourite. Just not 78% favourite.

Most of my best winning bets have occurred when I have bet against my personal tastes. They have proved to be my real winners. I'll tantalise you with one example: I've twice won well on Arsenal as title winners which for a Spurs supporter takes some doing.

You must have a good memory!

rcs1000 · October 2014

Peter_the_Punter said:
@RCS

"I bought Reckless at 1.8..."

But he was available at 2.2...for a long time, Robert. Tut, tut. You should listen to your Old Man more.

Seriously, I make Reckless a 4/6 chance. David H gives a good run down of the reasons to bet against him. He overlooks the Clacton effect and improved standing of UKIP in the national polls, but the basic idea is right.

This should be a close contest and the prices aren't reflecting that yet.

I make him a slightly higher chance than that.

You're right that the smart (trading) punter should bet against him, though. There is hidden optionality in laying him: if news comes out that's favourable to UKIP the price will only move 1-2% in that direction given we're at 1.3 now. But if news comes out the other way, we could see a 20% move to 1.6 or so.

Norm · October 2014

Patrick said:

blackburn63 said:
I wonder if somebody could give an example of a tactical vote in Rochester.
The only possible winners will be Tory or UKIP. So....

If a a lefty really wants UKIP to fail they vote Tory. If they really want Dave to stumble they vote UKIP.

Yes a partisan Labour supporter who really wants to put a spoke in the Tories chance of being back in government should vote for the hard right Reckless rather than whichever of the two softer right Tory candidates are chosen assuming of course that Labour remain out of the contest in R & S. However I notice there is a Facebook page Stand up to Ukip in Medway which has already attracted over 1000 likes with 25 - 34 year olds being the lead group. The question is whether the members this anti Ukip alliance would hold their noses and vote Tory given that is probably the only way of stopping Reckless.

In reality I suspect a Tory victory will only happen if the successful candidate in the primary demonstrates personal strengths that make her a strong alternative to Reckless. One of the candidates I notice has in the past expressed strong views about the Palestinian situation on her Twitter pages. Although I don't wholly agree with her views on that subject I hope both candidates don't allow themselves to be subsumed by the party machine and are confident enough to be their own women - the voters respect that.

Sean_F · October 2014

Artist said:
The Survation poll has 2010 Labour voters breaking 19% to UKIP and 3% to Conservatives. Should be enough to take Reckless over the line this time, but next May will be interesting.

Not dissimilar to ComRes, then.

nigel4england · October 2014

bigjohnowls said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Ninoinoz said:

rottenborough said:

isam said:

audreyanne said:
Very interesting analysis Mike. It won't go down well with the UKIP tub thumpers on here but there is nothing like facts. It'll also be interesting to see if
1. naming the Conservative candidate makes a difference following
2. a full constituency primary
3. having a female
4. the next polls being longer after the Clacton result and
5. the kitchen sink from the Tories compared to the Clacton gimme.

I agree that I make Reckless favourite still, but also that it's on a knife-edge.

I made my bets, and my arguments purely from facts

Ukip won the euros by a distance
Ukip have the incumbent mp
Ukip are 9% ahead in the only poll

What are the facts the conservatives are using? They are REALLY TRYING HARD?

Well, trying really hard, is always a major factor in a by-election. I'll be interested to see if we end up with a lot more UKIP posters and window stickers than Tory ones, thanks in part to shy Tories.
I urge all Tories to put a Conservative poster in their window.

That way the Ukippers know whom to target when knocking on doors.
Nice to see our Labouristes have't learnt the lesson from the near disaster of Heywood & Middleton. Doomed.
Where LAB vote share increased.

By 1% from the disaster of 2010.

Keep clutching at those straws.

Sean_F · October 2014

I'd put UKIP's chances here at c.65%.

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