The betting's going to be a bit dull until we see a Rochester poll, and that won't happen until the Tories name a candidate.
Why is it taking so long?
Democracy takes time.
Unlike the Kippers we're not foisting a candidate on the good people of Rochester and Strood, Vox Populi, Vox Dei and all that jazz
No, you're just foisting two candidates with no difference in political views, and then pretending they have a choice. Hong Kong style 'democracy'.
I get the feeling no matter what the Tories or Dave did you'd be having a go.
David Cameron could walk on water and you'd be criticising him for not being able to swim.
I haven't had a go at him over this. I'm just refuting your claim that the Tories are putting forward some sort of people's choice and thus making themselves morally superior to UKIP. Both parties will have candidates that have been backed by the central party.
EDIT: Oh, and I've praised Cameron for some things. For example, I've openly said that if he follows through with his demand for an emergency brake on EU immigration, then that would be a major repatriation. (Providing, of course, that it's set at an appropriate level.)
COMPLETELY OT!. I was in a bar in Soho some years ago when someone jokingly said to Derek Coutts 'Imagine having on your tombstone 'Here lies Derek Coutts. He shot the OXO commercials'.
As a put down it was quite funny but having just listened to Linda Bellingham's co star in the ad paying tribute to her I thought the real irony is that that Derek who cast and directed them in their most famous work in all likelihood wont be remembered at all.
All aspects of most advertising is forgotten and most aspects of all advertising is forgotten; it's all ephemeral fluff. To the extent that anything is remembered, it's the odd tagline, jingle or image; it's certainly not the artist or director.
On topic, this by-election, like Newark is fascinating, for the fact Labour aren't even attempting to win this.
The swing needed here for them to win is 10.4%, which should be pretty easy given that 16% voted .
It is rather tiring to keep having to point this out to you TSE but Newark Labour have been in disarray for a decade or more. The by election there tells you absolutely nothing about Labour nationally.
Yet as you never tire of telling us, there was no tactical voting so, I'm trying to work out, given the collapse of the Lib Dems, Labour's share of the vote still dropped, where exactly did the Labour vote go and what we can read into it.
It didn't drop much actually did it?
Paul Baggaley (Independent) runs a Save Newark Hospital campaign.. he got the same amount that Labour went down.. seems like a Labour type cause
Obv there is a churn which is impossible to know, and we can all present it the way we want
Conservative Robert Jenrick 17,431 45.0 -8.9
UKIP Roger Helmer 10,028 25.9 +22.1
Labour Michael Payne 6,842 17.7 -4.6
Independent Paul Baggaley 1,891 4.9 N/A
Green David Kirwan 1,057 2.7 N/A
Liberal Democrat David Watts 1,004 2.6 -17.4
Monster Raving Loony Nick The Flying Brick 168 0.4 N/A
Independent Andy Hayes 117 0.3 N/A
Bus-Pass Elvis Party David Bishop 87 0.2 N/A
Common Good Dick Rodgers 64 0.2 N/A
Patriotic Socialist Party Lee Woods 18 0.1 N/
All the polls show a huge shift from LD to Lab.
Despite this in Newark and in Heywood it didn't do much for Labour's share of the vote.
Newark polls?
I'm talking about GB wide polls and The Lord A marginals polls.
All things being equal in Newark and Heywood Labour's share of the vote should have been up a lot, but in reality they went down and barely went up on their poor performance in 2010 respectively.
Several of us, including myself, have betting strategies that Labour will be the largest party in 2015 because of the 2010 Lib Dems.
If that crutch is happening only in the VI polls and not the ballot box, then I'm going to have to review my betting portfolio.
Sorry, I should have known you meant national polls, my mistake
It seems to me that in these by elections, voters for whichever parties are in 3rd or 4th place vote UKIP (poss protest) and the incumbents struggle to keep their 2010 share
The betting's going to be a bit dull until we see a Rochester poll, and that won't happen until the Tories name a candidate.
Why is it taking so long?
Democracy takes time.
Unlike the Kippers we're not foisting a candidate on the good people of Rochester and Strood, Vox Populi, Vox Dei and all that jazz
No, you're just foisting two candidates with no difference in political views, and then pretending they have a choice. Hong Kong style 'democracy'.
I get the feeling no matter what the Tories or Dave did you'd be having a go.
David Cameron could walk on water and you'd be criticising him for not being able to swim.
I haven't had a go at him over this. I'm just refuting your claim that the Tories are putting forward some sort of people's choice and thus making themselves morally superior to UKIP. Both parties will have candidates that have been backed by the central party.
Today, you compared him to the Chinese Rule of Hong Kong.
In what world, apart from Bizarro world, is that not having a go?
The betting's going to be a bit dull until we see a Rochester poll, and that won't happen until the Tories name a candidate.
Why is it taking so long?
Democracy takes time.
Unlike the Kippers we're not foisting a candidate on the good people of Rochester and Strood, Vox Populi, Vox Dei and all that jazz
No, you're just foisting two candidates with no difference in political views, and then pretending they have a choice. Hong Kong style 'democracy'.
I get the feeling no matter what the Tories or Dave did you'd be having a go.
David Cameron could walk on water and you'd be criticising him for not being able to swim.
I haven't had a go at him over this. I'm just refuting your claim that the Tories are putting forward some sort of people's choice and thus making themselves morally superior to UKIP. Both parties will have candidates that have been backed by the central party.
Today, you compared him to the Chinese Rule of Hong Kong.
In what world, apart from Bizarro world, is that not having a go?
I didn't compare him to the Chinese rule of Hong Kong. I've compared the offering of two candidates chosen by CCHQ before a people's vote to the electoral system of Hong Kong, whereby candidates are chosen by the CPC before a people's vote. My point is that specific part of the process - the primary - is not democratic. I'm not referring to any other part of Cameron's governance more widely. The selection of all candidates in this country is undemocratic, of course.
I've always judged advertising to be mostly trying to sell stuff that people don't want by inflating its worth. It 's a job and keeps them from bothering people on street corners, but it's hardly up there with William Wilberforce or Mother Theresa
Edited extra bit: if you're into fantasy generally then all of them will be delightful, but if you're not that into it I'd suggest giving Sir Edric's Temple a try first. Very easy to get into, minimal lore/backstory, and quite a lot of taking the piss out of fantasy stereotypes, men, women, rich bastards, poor people etc. It's an equal opportunities smorgasbord of mockery.
Yes, very interesting. Not all the Russian Submarine Fleet is in great condition and i wonder if something has failed. I hope that we are not going to see another "Kursk" with a crew full of sailors trapped on the bottom. The Russians denied that until it was too late as well!
The Kursk was rammed by a US sub, the Russians agreed to not make an issue out of it, cover it up and not start a war. Some countries are responsible like that.
That allegation was made soon after the event. No evidence was ever brought forward and the official enquiry blamed a malfunctioning torpedo. This was 2000. No one was even thinking about starting a war...
The user name (Falseflag) gives you a clue as to his mindset.
I would suggest he would be happier posting on "above top secret"
Greens have only reached 500 members in the City for the first time.
I'm not sure about Bristol West. I went to university in Bristol, and lived in that constituency for several years. Clifton, Cabot, Redland and Cotham are all quite wealthy.
I'm not convinced it's *that* left-wing, not compared to Brighton, and Bristol students are a slightly different breed from your typical guardianistas.
There were boundary changes in 2010, but quite a few Tories voted for Stephen Williams in 2010, so they may continue to vote tactically (denying it to the Greens) or return to the Tories.
It [the Labour Newark vote share] didn't drop much actually did it?
Paul Baggaley (Independent) runs a Save Newark Hospital campaign.. he got the same amount that Labour went down.. seems like a Labour type cause
Obv there is a churn which is impossible to know, and we can all present it the way we want
Conservative Robert Jenrick 17,431 45.0 -8.9
UKIP Roger Helmer 10,028 25.9 +22.1
Labour Michael Payne 6,842 17.7 -4.6
Independent Paul Baggaley 1,891 4.9 N/A
Green David Kirwan 1,057 2.7 N/A
Liberal Democrat David Watts 1,004 2.6 -17.4
Monster Raving Loony Nick The Flying Brick 168 0.4 N/A
Independent Andy Hayes 117 0.3 N/A
Bus-Pass Elvis Party David Bishop 87 0.2 N/A
Common Good Dick Rodgers 64 0.2 N/A
Patriotic Socialist Party Lee Woods 18 0.1 N/
All the polls show a huge shift from LD to Lab.
Despite this in Newark and in Heywood it didn't do much for Labour's share of the vote.
Newark polls?
I'm talking about GB wide polls and The Lord A marginals polls.
All things being equal in Newark and Heywood Labour's share of the vote should have been up a lot, but in reality they went down and barely went up on their poor performance in 2010 respectively.
Several of us, including myself, have betting strategies that Labour will be the largest party in 2015 because of the 2010 Lib Dems.
If that crutch is happening only in the VI polls and not the ballot box, then I'm going to have to review my betting portfolio.
Sorry, I should have known you meant national polls, my mistake
It seems to me that in these by elections, voters for whichever parties are in 3rd or 4th place vote UKIP (poss protest) and the incumbents struggle to keep their 2010 share
It should still be worrying for Labour that voters are choosing UKIP (who frequently have a starting point in fourth or lower, with a deposit-losing share of the vote), as the vehicle to protest through rather than Labour, who aspire to government next year.
The contrast between Manchester Central (Nov 2012) and Heywood & Middleton this month is telling.
In Manchester Central, the 2010 position was Lab 53, LD 27, Con 12, UKIP 1.5 (sixth, behind BNP and Greens), and the by-election saw Lab +16, LD -17, Con -7, UKIP +3.
In H&M, the 2010 scores were Lab 40, Con 27, LD 23, UKIP 2.6 (fifth, behind BNP), but the by-election saw Lab +1, Con -15, LD -18, UKIP +36.
Clearly it should also be worrying for the Tories and Lib Dems to be losing so much support but the fact that Labour is no longer picking it up in net terms cannot be ignored either.
On topic, this by-election, like Newark is fascinating, for the fact Labour aren't even attempting to win this.
The swing needed here for them to win is 10.4%, which should be pretty easy given that 16% voted Lib Dem in R&S in 2010.
In Newark they needed a 15.8% swing to win the seat, which should have been easy given than 20% voted Lib Dem in Newark in 2010.
Historically speaking, those sorts of swings are possible for an opposition in the last year of the parliament.
The Tories achieved a 16.5% swing in Norwich North in 2009.
Labour in 1996 achieved a 22% swing South East Staffordshire by-election
Like a French sailor led by Villeneuve at Trafalgar, Labour know they are doomed under the duffer that is Ed Miliband.
It is rather tiring to keep having to point this out to you TSE but Newark Labour have been in disarray for a decade or more. The by election there tells you absolutely nothing about Labour nationally.
Yet as you never tire of telling us, there was no tactical voting so, I'm trying to work out, given the collapse of the Lib Dems, Labour's share of the vote still dropped, where exactly did the Labour vote go and what we can read into it.
Labour's vote hardly dropped at all. A total of about 300 people less than at the GE. So you are basing your premise on no data. A more realistic analysis is that Labour and Lib Dem voters just didn't bother voting.
Given that I've explained to you on a couple of occasions exactly what the United & Cecil Club is, and the sort of people that join it, why did you feel the need to describe it as "mysterious and sinister" (or whatever the exact phrase was).
Now, I know you were cute about it in "only quoting" the guardian, but isn't it a wee bit, you know, unethical to lie and smear your opponents?
Charles, I'm sorry, but I've not (so far as can recall) seen anything from you about the club, and know nothing whatever about it except for the Guardian piece. I often don't have time to read the threads properly - I dive in, answer something that catches my eye, and bugger off again. If you want to be sure see something it's best to email me.
Greens have only reached 500 members in the City for the first time.
I'm not sure about Bristol West. I went to university in Bristol, and lived in that constituency for several years. Clifton, Cabot, Redland and Cotham are all quite wealthy.
I'm not convinced it's *that* left-wing, not compared to Brighton, and Bristol students are a slightly different breed from your typical guardianistas.
There were boundary changes in 2010, but quite a few Tories voted for Stephen Williams in 2010, so they may continue to vote tactically (denying it to the Greens) or return to the Tories.
It doesn't sound much like a Green gain to me.
It's an odd constituency, combining elements of wealthy Clifton and poor StPaul's. I can understand why the Greens might get some traction there, and a perfectly decent result, but win?
It's one of my more speculative bets so I would be delighted but somehow I don't think so.
COMPLETELY OT!. I was in a bar in Soho some years ago when someone jokingly said to Derek Coutts 'Imagine having on your tombstone 'Here lies Derek Coutts. He shot the OXO commercials'.
As a put down it was quite funny but having just listened to Linda Bellingham's co star in the ad paying tribute to her I thought the real irony is that that Derek who cast and directed them in their most famous work in all likelihood wont be remembered at all.
All aspects of most advertising is forgotten and most aspects of all advertising is forgotten; it's all ephemeral fluff. To the extent that anything is remembered, it's the odd tagline, jingle or image; it's certainly not the artist or director.
To be fair, I think most of us “of a certain age” remember the OXO commercials. IIRC they were the first to run a story line, as subsequently developed by (again IIRC Nescafe).
Douglas Carswell, the favourite Kipper of most Conservatives on this site, just accused the Tories of using a telemarketing company as a front for smearing Mark Reckless live on the Daily Politics
Apparently the company, based in Kingston Upon Thames called MQR phone Rochester residents, ask them the same questions that are on Conservative party leaflets, followed up by a last question that smears Reckless
I think the insinuation is that Grant Shapps likes to use a false identity to get a message, beneficial to him, across
He actually said he thinks it looks like they are push polling
COMPLETELY OT!. I was in a bar in Soho some years ago when someone jokingly said to Derek Coutts 'Imagine having on your tombstone 'Here lies Derek Coutts. He shot the OXO commercials'.
As a put down it was quite funny but having just listened to Linda Bellingham's co star in the ad paying tribute to her I thought the real irony is that that Derek who cast and directed them in their most famous work in all likelihood wont be remembered at all.
All aspects of most advertising is forgotten and most aspects of all advertising is forgotten; it's all ephemeral fluff. To the extent that anything is remembered, it's the odd tagline, jingle or image; it's certainly not the artist or director.
@Casino_Royale@Peter_the_Punter Green vote tended to drop off in ward further from The University. Greens opposed sale of Bristol Rovers Ground - via a 'company' set up to block it. Assistant Mayor moaned that £32K allowance was not enough.
On topic, this by-election, like Newark is fascinating, for the fact Labour aren't even attempting to win this.
The swing needed here for them to win is 10.4%, which should be pretty easy given that 16% voted Lib Dem in R&S in 2010.
In Newark they needed a 15.8% swing to win the seat, which should have been easy given than 20% voted Lib Dem in Newark in 2010.
Historically speaking, those sorts of swings are possible for an opposition in the last year of the parliament.
The Tories achieved a 16.5% swing in Norwich North in 2009.
Labour in 1996 achieved a 22% swing South East Staffordshire by-election
Like a French sailor led by Villeneuve at Trafalgar, Labour know they are doomed under the duffer that is Ed Miliband.
It is rather tiring to keep having to point this out to you TSE but Newark Labour have been in disarray for a decade or more. The by election there tells you absolutely nothing about Labour nationally.
Yet as you never tire of telling us, there was no tactical voting so, I'm trying to work out, given the collapse of the Lib Dems, Labour's share of the vote still dropped, where exactly did the Labour vote go and what we can read into it.
Labour's vote hardly dropped at all. A total of about 300 people less than at the GE. So you are basing your premise on no data. A more realistic analysis is that Labour and Lib Dem voters just didn't bother voting.
In Newark, Labour's GE vote was 11438; at the by-election, it was 6842.
As an aside, *why* would Labour and Lib Dem 'voters' not bother voting? Were those that didn't sufficiently content with the two right-of-centre candidates that they felt no need to vote against them? It strikes me as unlikely.
Douglas Carswell, the favourite Kipper of most Conservatives on this site, just accused the Tories of using a telemarketing company as a front for smearing Mark Reckless live on the Daily Politics
Apparently the company, based in Kingston Upon Thames called MQR phone Rochester residents, ask them the same questions that are on Conservative party leaflets, followed up by a last question that smears Reckless
I think the insinuation is that Grant Shapps likes to use a false identity to get a message, beneficial to him, across
He actually said he thinks it looks like they are push polling
What's the 'smear' - anything to do with Reckless's flip flop on Local Planning and Development?
COMPLETELY OT!. I was in a bar in Soho some years ago when someone jokingly said to Derek Coutts 'Imagine having on your tombstone 'Here lies Derek Coutts. He shot the OXO commercials'.
As a put down it was quite funny but having just listened to Linda Bellingham's co star in the ad paying tribute to her I thought the real irony is that that Derek who cast and directed them in their most famous work in all likelihood wont be remembered at all.
Bizarrely, I used to work for Derek Coutts. When I was a book reviewer for the Mail on Sunday - a looooooong time ago - he gave me a stupidly well-paid job looking for possible novels he could adapt into a movie.
Small world, Soho.
Then he got some horrible divorce, I believe, and sacked me for the very good reason he couldn't afford to pay me loads of cash for doing bugger all.
Last night I watched Silent Witness at my parents...
They main character was a heavy drinking North London based thriller writer, who liked to think of himself as a bit of a rough diamond, with a daughter from an ex relationship and whose first book had just been bought by a Hollywood film company for $1.8m!
Douglas Carswell, the favourite Kipper of most Conservatives on this site, just accused the Tories of using a telemarketing company as a front for smearing Mark Reckless live on the Daily Politics
Apparently the company, based in Kingston Upon Thames called MQR phone Rochester residents, ask them the same questions that are on Conservative party leaflets, followed up by a last question that smears Reckless
I think the insinuation is that Grant Shapps likes to use a false identity to get a message, beneficial to him, across
He actually said he thinks it looks like they are push polling
What's the 'smear' - anything to do with Reckless's flip flop on Local Planning and Development?
They try saying he is a drunk I think.. what you say isn't a smear is it.
Surely this tactic would only work if they had chucked Reckless out? It is hardly consistent to criticise him so personally when he was their candidate only 6 weeks ago
Greens have only reached 500 members in the City for the first time.
I'm not sure about Bristol West. I went to university in Bristol, and lived in that constituency for several years. Clifton, Cabot, Redland and Cotham are all quite wealthy.
I'm not convinced it's *that* left-wing, not compared to Brighton, and Bristol students are a slightly different breed from your typical guardianistas.
There were boundary changes in 2010, but quite a few Tories voted for Stephen Williams in 2010, so they may continue to vote tactically (denying it to the Greens) or return to the Tories.
It doesn't sound much like a Green gain to me.
It's an odd constituency, combining elements of wealthy Clifton and poor StPaul's. I can understand why the Greens might get some traction there, and a perfectly decent result, but win?
It's one of my more speculative bets so I would be delighted but somehow I don't think so.
Agreed. Given that Williams has a 20%+ and 10,000 majority, I may even be tempted to take a bite of the 8/13 for the Lib Dems to hold the seat.
I don't see much sign of voters flocking to Labour's banner there. His majority may sink, but those voters might abstain/vote green rather than all flock to the Reds.
COMPLETELY OT!. I was in a bar in Soho some years ago when someone jokingly said to Derek Coutts 'Imagine having on your tombstone 'Here lies Derek Coutts. He shot the OXO commercials'.
As a put down it was quite funny but having just listened to Linda Bellingham's co star in the ad paying tribute to her I thought the real irony is that that Derek who cast and directed them in their most famous work in all likelihood wont be remembered at all.
All aspects of most advertising is forgotten and most aspects of all advertising is forgotten; it's all ephemeral fluff. To the extent that anything is remembered, it's the odd tagline, jingle or image; it's certainly not the artist or director.
To be fair, I think most of us “of a certain age” remember the OXO commercials. IIRC they were the first to run a story line, as subsequently developed by (again IIRC Nescafe).
True, but they're one of the exceptions for which an image of them lingers. Roger's point was that it was somehow "ironic" that the director of them will be forgotten when practically no director of any advert is ever known, never mind forgotten.
COMPLETELY OT!. I was in a bar in Soho some years ago when someone jokingly said to Derek Coutts 'Imagine having on your tombstone 'Here lies Derek Coutts. He shot the OXO commercials'.
As a put down it was quite funny but having just listened to Linda Bellingham's co star in the ad paying tribute to her I thought the real irony is that that Derek who cast and directed them in their most famous work in all likelihood wont be remembered at all.
All aspects of most advertising is forgotten and most aspects of all advertising is forgotten; it's all ephemeral fluff. To the extent that anything is remembered, it's the odd tagline, jingle or image; it's certainly not the artist or director.
To be fair, I think most of us “of a certain age” remember the OXO commercials. IIRC they were the first to run a story line, as subsequently developed by (again IIRC Nescafe).
True, but they're one of the exceptions for which an image of them lingers. Roger's point was that it was somehow "ironic" that the director of them will be forgotten when practically no director of any advert is ever known, never mind forgotten.
Directors producers and actors in adverts are indeed forgotten, unless they go into other kinds of TV and movie work (eg Ridley Scott etc). All TV adverts are, in themselves, largely forgotten quite quickly.
The strange exception is copywriting. Some advert phrases and shoutlines are very enduring.
"It does exactly what it says on the tin" is now part of the English language - I heard it used in a BBC TV news report the other day. Ditto "where's the beef" - which came from a US TV advert for Wendy's hamburgers, as long ago as the early 80s.
One of my mates had the idea to do an anti smoking advert using the Ronseal guy standing at a funeral holding a pack of B&H up, and dropping the catchphrase just as the coffin was being lowered"
Obv substituting "Smoking" for "Ronseal" and possibly "Pack" for "Tin"
COMPLETELY OT!. I was in a bar in Soho some years ago when someone jokingly said to Derek Coutts 'Imagine having on your tombstone 'Here lies Derek Coutts. He shot the OXO commercials'.
As a put down it was quite funny but having just listened to Linda Bellingham's co star in the ad paying tribute to her I thought the real irony is that that Derek who cast and directed them in their most famous work in all likelihood wont be remembered at all.
All aspects of most advertising is forgotten and most aspects of all advertising is forgotten; it's all ephemeral fluff. To the extent that anything is remembered, it's the odd tagline, jingle or image; it's certainly not the artist or director.
To be fair, I think most of us “of a certain age” remember the OXO commercials. IIRC they were the first to run a story line, as subsequently developed by (again IIRC Nescafe).
True, but they're one of the exceptions for which an image of them lingers. Roger's point was that it was somehow "ironic" that the director of them will be forgotten when practically no director of any advert is ever known, never mind forgotten.
Directors producers and actors in adverts are indeed forgotten, unless they go into other kinds of TV and movie work (eg Ridley Scott etc). All TV adverts are, in themselves, largely forgotten quite quickly.
The strange exception is copywriting. Some advert phrases and shoutlines are very enduring.
"It does exactly what it says on the tin" is now part of the English language - I heard it used in a BBC TV news report the other day. Ditto "where's the beef" - which came from a US TV advert for Wendy's hamburgers, as long ago as the early 80s.
Indeed. Just about the only things which are remembered are the taglines - of which there are planty, some of which have, as you say, developed a life separate from their product - or perhaps a particularly striking image. Perhaps the best example of the image is the Kitchener recruitment poster, almost a hundred years old now. God knows who designed it though.
It's one way of dealing with trolling... does Reckless do the same? This is one of the politer ones he's retweeted...
Mark @Mark_85 Look at the state of you, I mean look at the state of you. You, with that face. You're offensive @DouglasCarswell pic.twitter.com/PFWcc4G18f Retweeted by Douglas Carswell MP
Greens have only reached 500 members in the City for the first time.
I'm not sure about Bristol West. I went to university in Bristol, and lived in that constituency for several years. Clifton, Cabot, Redland and Cotham are all quite wealthy.
I'm not convinced it's *that* left-wing, not compared to Brighton, and Bristol students are a slightly different breed from your typical guardianistas.
There were boundary changes in 2010, but quite a few Tories voted for Stephen Williams in 2010, so they may continue to vote tactically (denying it to the Greens) or return to the Tories.
It doesn't sound much like a Green gain to me.
It's an odd constituency, combining elements of wealthy Clifton and poor StPaul's. I can understand why the Greens might get some traction there, and a perfectly decent result, but win?
It's one of my more speculative bets so I would be delighted but somehow I don't think so.
Agreed. Given that Williams has a 20%+ and 10,000 majority, I may even be tempted to take a bite of the 8/13 for the Lib Dems to hold the seat.
I don't see much sign of voters flocking to Labour's banner there. His majority may sink, but those voters might abstain/vote green rather than all flock to the Reds.
As I have posted before , recent local elections in the wards making up the constituency show the Lib Dems still with a comfortable lead Greens just ahead of Labour in 2nd place , Conservatives 4th . Next May I would expect Labour to regain 2nd place at the GE with Greens just ahead of Conservatives in 3rd .
On topic, this by-election, like Newark is fascinating, for the fact Labour aren't even attempting to win this.
The swing needed here for them to win is 10.4%, which should be pretty easy given that 16% voted Lib Dem in R&S in 2010.
In Newark they needed a 15.8% swing to win the seat, which should have been easy given than 20% voted Lib Dem in Newark in 2010.
Historically speaking, those sorts of swings are possible for an opposition in the last year of the parliament.
The Tories achieved a 16.5% swing in Norwich North in 2009.
Labour in 1996 achieved a 22% swing South East Staffordshire by-election
Like a French sailor led by Villeneuve at Trafalgar, Labour know they are doomed under the duffer that is Ed Miliband.
It is rather tiring to keep having to point this out to you TSE but Newark Labour have been in disarray for a decade or more. The by election there tells you absolutely nothing about Labour nationally.
Yet as you never tire of telling us, there was no tactical voting so, I'm trying to work out, given the collapse of the Lib Dems, Labour's share of the vote still dropped, where exactly did the Labour vote go and what we can read into it.
Labour's vote hardly dropped at all. A total of about 300 people less than at the GE. So you are basing your premise on no data. A more realistic analysis is that Labour and Lib Dem voters just didn't bother voting.
I thought it did.
In Newark, changes from 2010
Labour 6,842 (-4,596), share of the vote fell by 4.6%, whilst the LD vote share collapsed by 17.4%.
It's one way of dealing with trolling... does Reckless do the same? This is one of the politer ones he's retweeted...
Mark @Mark_85 Look at the state of you, I mean look at the state of you. You, with that face. You're offensive @DouglasCarswell pic.twitter.com/PFWcc4G18f Retweeted by Douglas Carswell MP
If I trolled Douglas, would he retweet my insults?
COMPLETELY OT!. I was in a bar in Soho some years ago when someone jokingly said to Derek Coutts 'Imagine having on your tombstone 'Here lies Derek Coutts. He shot the OXO commercials'.
As a put down it was quite funny but having just listened to Linda Bellingham's co star in the ad paying tribute to her I thought the real irony is that that Derek who cast and directed them in their most famous work in all likelihood wont be remembered at all.
All aspects of most advertising is forgotten and most aspects of all advertising is forgotten; it's all ephemeral fluff. To the extent that anything is remembered, it's the odd tagline, jingle or image; it's certainly not the artist or director.
To be fair, I think most of us “of a certain age” remember the OXO commercials. IIRC they were the first to run a story line, as subsequently developed by (again IIRC Nescafe).
True, but they're one of the exceptions for which an image of them lingers. Roger's point was that it was somehow "ironic" that the director of them will be forgotten when practically no director of any advert is ever known, never mind forgotten.
Directors producers and actors in adverts are indeed forgotten, unless they go into other kinds of TV and movie work (eg Ridley Scott etc). All TV adverts are, in themselves, largely forgotten quite quickly.
The strange exception is copywriting. Some advert phrases and shoutlines are very enduring.
"It does exactly what it says on the tin" is now part of the English language - I heard it used in a BBC TV news report the other day. Ditto "where's the beef" - which came from a US TV advert for Wendy's hamburgers, as long ago as the early 80s.
Indeed. Just about the only things which are remembered are the taglines - of which there are planty, some of which have, as you say, developed a life separate from their product - or perhaps a particularly striking image. Perhaps the best example of the image is the Kitchener recruitment poster, almost a hundred years old now. God knows who designed it though.
Likewise KEEP CALM AND CARRY ON, which must now have a claim to be the most famous poster campaign ever, in the most peculiar way.
Tbf there is a tiny minority of TV adverts which linger in the mind, and which have, arguably, an intrinsic artistic quality. The Hovis advert with the Dvorak music is the classic example
The betting's going to be a bit dull until we see a Rochester poll, and that won't happen until the Tories name a candidate.
Why is it taking so long?
Democracy takes time.
Unlike the Kippers we're not foisting a candidate on the good people of Rochester and Strood, Vox Populi, Vox Dei and all that jazz
No, you're just foisting two candidates with no difference in political views, and then pretending they have a choice. Hong Kong style 'democracy'.
I get the feeling no matter what the Tories or Dave did you'd be having a go.
David Cameron could walk on water and you'd be criticising him for not being able to swim.
The two candidates were interviewed on Sunday politics yesterday...immediate media training needed
Anna Firth , one of the two candidates, possibly slightly naively had been very positive about that interview beforehand on her Twitter feed. The Beeb editors as might be expected dramatically cut and shunt that interview so that all the emphasis was on their unfortunate joint pause when asked whether this by-election was make or break for DC which of course also allowed the journalist to make his "witty" aside. Nothing is ever quite as it seems. .
Dave just described as the Grand Old Duke of York on 1pm news over EU red lines
By which news organisation?
BBC so presume it doesnt count,
Over promising has got him in a pickle apparently.
Ah the Bolshevik Broadcasting Corporation, who in the last few years, had to apologise and pay out for smearing a former Thatcher close confidante for being a paedo.
Who in the 80s, had to pay out for smearing two Tory MPs.
When was the last time the BBC had to pay out for smearing Labour people?
If the Labour party was the Titanic, the BBC would have spun it as a truly terrible night for the iceberg.
Have you seen Zero Dark Thirty? The last half hour of that really brought home just how impressive and audacious the US military was with that attack. Several dozen commandos sent in underneath the radar in stealth helicopters, without the knowledge of the host government. They cut off the electricity supply to the compound from afar. When an unexpected micro climate forced one of the helicopters to crash, the pilot managed to land it safely without any injuries. They then secured the entire compound, holding back angry crowds from coming close, swept every floor systematically, repeatedly broke through reinforced doors, killed every target without any injuries on their side, kept virtually all of the women and children safe, confirmed the identification of the bodies, confiscated all the hard drives and paper files, destroyed the broken down helicopter, and got out of there before the Pakistani F-15s arrived. It was amazing.
Given that I've explained to you on a couple of occasions exactly what the United & Cecil Club is, and the sort of people that join it, why did you feel the need to describe it as "mysterious and sinister" (or whatever the exact phrase was).
Now, I know you were cute about it in "only quoting" the guardian, but isn't it a wee bit, you know, unethical to lie and smear your opponents?
Charles, I'm sorry, but I've not (so far as can recall) seen anything from you about the club, and know nothing whatever about it except for the Guardian piece. I often don't have time to read the threads properly - I dive in, answer something that catches my eye, and bugger off again. If you want to be sure see something it's best to email me.
I can reply on your own website if you like...
I was briefly a member of U&C - it's basically a club that you pay an annual subscription to (ie a donation) and then get invited to dinners with various MPs, party functionaries, hacks, etc. Usually at the Carlton & you end up paying for each event.
So nothing more than a fund raising vehicle, usually for Tories in their 30s and 40s. There are quite a few wannabe politicians who turn up, and then they trawl the ranks of the other donor clubs. I could never make any of the events so didn't see the value of staying a member
A bit like the fund raising dinners you were offering on your email list... So hardly that dodgy an organisation!
Dave just described as the Grand Old Duke of York on 1pm news over EU red lines
By which news organisation?
BBC so presume it doesnt count,
Over promising has got him in a pickle apparently.
Ah the Bolshevik Broadcasting Corporation, who in the last few years, had to apologise and pay out for smearing a former Thatcher close confidante for being a paedo.
Who in the 80s, had to pay out for smearing two Tory MPs.
When was the last time the BBC had to pay out for smearing Labour people?
If the Labour party was the Titanic, the BBC would have spun it as a truly terrible night for the iceberg.
Smashed into a million pieces etc.
Maybe but what about my £1.60 dilemma.
I could get flavour of the month and 25p change if its not worth it.
COMPLETELY OT!. I was in a bar in Soho some years ago when someone jokingly said to Derek Coutts 'Imagine having on your tombstone 'Here lies Derek Coutts. He shot the OXO commercials'.
As a put down it was quite funny but having just listened to Linda Bellingham's co star in the ad paying tribute to her I thought the real irony is that that Derek who cast and directed them in their most famous work in all likelihood wont be remembered at all.
All aspects of most advertising is forgotten and most aspects of all advertising is forgotten; it's all ephemeral fluff. To the extent that anything is remembered, it's the odd tagline, jingle or image; it's certainly not the artist or director.
To be fair, I think most of us “of a certain age” remember the OXO commercials. IIRC they were the first to run a story line, as subsequently developed by (again IIRC Nescafe).
True, but they're one of the exceptions for which an image of them lingers. Roger's point was that it was somehow "ironic" that the director of them will be forgotten when practically no director of any advert is ever known, never mind forgotten.
It’s one of those corners of the world, isn’t it, where those who know about it know, at it matters to that group while for the rest of us ........
I met a props manager once who told me that she always sat through the cvredits at the end of the fil to make sure her name was there, while everyone else in the cinema pushed past her.
Dave just described as the Grand Old Duke of York on 1pm news over EU red lines
By which news organisation?
BBC so presume it doesnt count,
Over promising has got him in a pickle apparently.
Ah the Bolshevik Broadcasting Corporation, who in the last few years, had to apologise and pay out for smearing a former Thatcher close confidante for being a paedo.
Who in the 80s, had to pay out for smearing two Tory MPs.
When was the last time the BBC had to pay out for smearing Labour people?
If the Labour party was the Titanic, the BBC would have spun it as a truly terrible night for the iceberg.
Dave just described as the Grand Old Duke of York on 1pm news over EU red lines
By which news organisation?
BBC so presume it doesnt count,
Over promising has got him in a pickle apparently.
Ah the Bolshevik Broadcasting Corporation, who in the last few years, had to apologise and pay out for smearing a former Thatcher close confidante for being a paedo.
Who in the 80s, had to pay out for smearing two Tory MPs.
When was the last time the BBC had to pay out for smearing Labour people?
If the Labour party was the Titanic, the BBC would have spun it as a truly terrible night for the iceberg.
Dave just described as the Grand Old Duke of York on 1pm news over EU red lines
By which news organisation?
BBC so presume it doesnt count,
Over promising has got him in a pickle apparently.
Ah the Bolshevik Broadcasting Corporation, who in the last few years, had to apologise and pay out for smearing a former Thatcher close confidante for being a paedo.
Who in the 80s, had to pay out for smearing two Tory MPs.
When was the last time the BBC had to pay out for smearing Labour people?
If the Labour party was the Titanic, the BBC would have spun it as a truly terrible night for the iceberg.
@Pulpstar Depends where the fossils occur? It might have been Canada if it was the north of Scotland. A Scottish "first" disallowed by continental drift?
The city is still seriously threatened, but it now stands a chance of survival. If ISIS fail to take it, despite throwing thousands of men into the battle and losing some of their top commanders (along with tons of weaponry) it will be their first major setback.
Viva Kobane.
Who was it suggested giving ISIS an attractive target then annihilating them when they try and take it?
I was briefly a member of U&C - it's basically a club that you pay an annual subscription to (ie a donation) and then get invited to dinners with various MPs, party functionaries, hacks, etc. Usually at the Carlton & you end up paying for each event.
So nothing more than a fund raising vehicle, usually for Tories in their 30s and 40s. There are quite a few wannabe politicians who turn up, and then they trawl the ranks of the other donor clubs. I could never make any of the events so didn't see the value of staying a member
A bit like the fund raising dinners you were offering on your email list... So hardly that dodgy an organisation!
Caught your comment this time, thanks. Why is it registered at a riding stable, or am I mixing it up with someone else?
In general, I think fund-raising should be fund-raising, not dressed up as a club. And isn't there a tendency for donations to be deliberately depersonalised? An MP who might hesitate to get a gift from an ex-oligarch might feel comfortable about getting it from a "club".
I've stayed and dined at the Carlton a couple of times myself, incidentally - not as nice as the National Liberal Club!
Possibly interesting strategic developments in Germany. Thueringen seems about to elect a Left (ex-Communist) State leader with Social Democrat/Green support; in return for this, the Left leaders in the state had to agree to say that the former GDR was a society based on illegality (the German word Unrechtsstaat is slightly ambiguous, but it's basically rude). This is being interpreted as a trial run for a possible future Social Democrat led Red-Red-Green option nationally, which is slightly more possible, perhaps as a minority government, as the CDU have flatly ruled out any cooperation with the UKIP-like AfD.
It's all very tentative and may come unstuck (the alliance has a majority of 1), but may have significant medium-term implications.
The city is still seriously threatened, but it now stands a chance of survival. If ISIS fail to take it, despite throwing thousands of men into the battle and losing some of their top commanders (along with tons of weaponry) it will be their first major setback.
Viva Kobane.
Who was it suggested giving ISIS an attractive target then annihilating them when they try and take it?
Seems the US thought it a good idea.
It was actually a bunch of us who came up with the idea, here on pb, about three months ago.
So we can add Barack Obama and CENTCOM to the famous readers of this website....
If they were following your advice, the Yanks would be running about in a blind panic, whilst waving their hands in the air and shrieking "We're all doomed!"
I was briefly a member of U&C - it's basically a club that you pay an annual subscription to (ie a donation) and then get invited to dinners with various MPs, party functionaries, hacks, etc. Usually at the Carlton & you end up paying for each event.
So nothing more than a fund raising vehicle, usually for Tories in their 30s and 40s. There are quite a few wannabe politicians who turn up, and then they trawl the ranks of the other donor clubs. I could never make any of the events so didn't see the value of staying a member
A bit like the fund raising dinners you were offering on your email list... So hardly that dodgy an organisation!
Caught your comment this time, thanks. Why is it registered at a riding stable, or am I mixing it up with someone else?
In general, I think fund-raising should be fund-raising, not dressed up as a club. And isn't there a tendency for donations to be deliberately depersonalised? An MP who might hesitate to get a gift from an ex-oligarch might feel comfortable about getting it from a "club".
UKIP are UP yet again, in this week's ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week). Total of 12 polls with field-work end-dates during the week-ending 18th October, including both parts of the "double ComRes". Total weighted samples: 13,550.
The city is still seriously threatened, but it now stands a chance of survival. If ISIS fail to take it, despite throwing thousands of men into the battle and losing some of their top commanders (along with tons of weaponry) it will be their first major setback.
Viva Kobane.
Do we dare wonder what happens if the Kurds take some ISIL prisoners? Even some Japanese were captured during WWII!
Dave just described as the Grand Old Duke of York on 1pm news over EU red lines
By which news organisation?
BBC so presume it doesnt count,
Over promising has got him in a pickle apparently.
Ah the Bolshevik Broadcasting Corporation, who in the last few years, had to apologise and pay out for smearing a former Thatcher close confidante for being a paedo.
Who in the 80s, had to pay out for smearing two Tory MPs.
When was the last time the BBC had to pay out for smearing Labour people?
If the Labour party was the Titanic, the BBC would have spun it as a truly terrible night for the iceberg.
UKIP are UP yet again, in this week's ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week). Total of 12 polls with field-work end-dates during the week-ending 18th October, including both parts of the "double ComRes". Total weighted samples: 13,550.
UKIP clear winners of conference season, then, thanks largely to a pair of Tory defectors. If they can win in Rochester and keep the bandwagon rolling... Any chance of LibLabCon cooking up a Vow, perhaps?
Possibly interesting strategic developments in Germany. Thueringen seems about to elect a Left (ex-Communist) State leader with Social Democrat/Green support; in return for this, the Left leaders in the state had to agree to say that the former GDR was a society based on illegality (the German word Unrechtsstaat is slightly ambiguous, but it's basically rude). This is being interpreted as a trial run for a possible future Social Democrat led Red-Red-Green option nationally, which is slightly more possible, perhaps as a minority government, as the CDU have flatly ruled out any cooperation with the UKIP-like AfD.
It's all very tentative and may come unstuck (the alliance has a majority of 1), but may have significant medium-term implications.
The hostility between the SDP and Die Linke is still pretty strong as I understand.
I have never quite understood why the Left seems to defend the GDR to the extent it does in Germany. It was a highly militaristic state, that goose-stepped around terrifying its own people and was lead by a privileged ruling class. Hardly a socialist dream in many regards!
UKIP are UP yet again, in this week's ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week). Total of 12 polls with field-work end-dates during the week-ending 18th October, including both parts of the "double ComRes". Total weighted samples: 13,550.
I like it, Sunnil. Shows a good expanding picture. I suppose you all read earlier that Hugo Rivkind has got the wind-up re UKIP. @hugorifkindhttp://specc.ie/ZFEunY
He accuses us of being Jason - like and facing both ways and is tearing his metaphorical hair out at the effrontery of us suggesting that we are different in any way.
Possibly interesting strategic developments in Germany. Thueringen seems about to elect a Left (ex-Communist) State leader with Social Democrat/Green support; in return for this, the Left leaders in the state had to agree to say that the former GDR was a society based on illegality (the German word Unrechtsstaat is slightly ambiguous, but it's basically rude). This is being interpreted as a trial run for a possible future Social Democrat led Red-Red-Green option nationally, which is slightly more possible, perhaps as a minority government, as the CDU have flatly ruled out any cooperation with the UKIP-like AfD.
It's all very tentative and may come unstuck (the alliance has a majority of 1), but may have significant medium-term implications.
The hostility between the SDP and Die Linke is still pretty strong as I understand.
I have never quite understood why the Left seems to defend the GDR to the extent it does in Germany. It was a highly militaristic state, that goose-stepped around terrifying its own people and was lead by a privileged ruling class. Hardly a socialist dream in many regards!
"We Germans are experts at forgetting. We forgot we were Nazis. Now we have forgotten 40 years of Communism - all gone." - as Bruno Ganz said in "Unknown".
"PASSENGER flights at Prestwick Airport are being cut to as few as one a day from next month, The Scotsman can reveal.
The Ayrshire airport, bought by the Scottish Government last year to save it from closure, will handle its fewest flights for more than 20 years after Ryanair switched several routes to Glasgow."
UKIP are UP yet again, in this week's ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week). Total of 12 polls with field-work end-dates during the week-ending 18th October, including both parts of the "double ComRes". Total weighted samples: 13,550.
I like it, Sunnil. Shows a good expanding picture. I suppose you all read earlier that Hugo Rivkind has got the wind-up re UKIP. @hugorifkindhttp://specc.ie/ZFEunY
He accuses us of being Jason - like and facing both ways and is tearing his metaphorical hair out at the effrontery of us suggesting that we are different in any way.
Jason? No that's Janus! Easy to remember: January is named after Janus - first month of the year, it kinda "faces both the previous year and the year to come".
Possibly interesting strategic developments in Germany. Thueringen seems about to elect a Left (ex-Communist) State leader with Social Democrat/Green support; in return for this, the Left leaders in the state had to agree to say that the former GDR was a society based on illegality (the German word Unrechtsstaat is slightly ambiguous, but it's basically rude). This is being interpreted as a trial run for a possible future Social Democrat led Red-Red-Green option nationally, which is slightly more possible, perhaps as a minority government, as the CDU have flatly ruled out any cooperation with the UKIP-like AfD.
It's all very tentative and may come unstuck (the alliance has a majority of 1), but may have significant medium-term implications.
The hostility between the SDP and Die Linke is still pretty strong as I understand.
I have never quite understood why the Left seems to defend the GDR to the extent it does in Germany. It was a highly militaristic state, that goose-stepped around terrifying its own people and was lead by a privileged ruling class. Hardly a socialist dream in many regards!
The DDR was a highly pernicious, dangerous, Soviet Style State; ruled by the Stasi ( I love alliteration ) under, you guessed it, an elite. This succumbed state has threads all through and over the FDR. Is it any wonder that the great German republic is is slowly choking in it's EU mattress.
UKIP are UP yet again, in this week's ELBOW (Electoral Leader-Board Of the Week). Total of 12 polls with field-work end-dates during the week-ending 18th October, including both parts of the "double ComRes". Total weighted samples: 13,550.
I like it, Sunnil. Shows a good expanding picture. I suppose you all read earlier that Hugo Rivkind has got the wind-up re UKIP. @hugorifkindhttp://specc.ie/ZFEunY
He accuses us of being Jason - like and facing both ways and is tearing his metaphorical hair out at the effrontery of us suggesting that we are different in any way.
Jason? No that's Janus! Easy to remember: January is named after Janus - first month of the year, it kinda "faces both the previous year and the year to come".
Yes you are right, I got my s's and n's switched. Apologies to all.
The hostility between the SDP and Die Linke is still pretty strong as I understand.
I have never quite understood why the Left seems to defend the GDR to the extent it does in Germany. It was a highly militaristic state, that goose-stepped around terrifying its own people and was lead by a privileged ruling class. Hardly a socialist dream in many regards!
Yes, the SPD sees the Linke pretty much like the Tories see UKIP - a bloody nuisance, with dodgy fringes, just getting in the way. But with PR the issue of possible alliance is more pressing.
The quid pro quo is that the Left Party is gingerly addressing the horrid defects of the GDR instead of treating it as the good old days.It was difficult for them earlier since a large part of their electorate were directly involved in the GDR system. The current younger membership are less attached to the tradition and therefore in that way somewhat more acceptable to the SPD - some of them are actually pretty much like the more left-wing Greens.
It's not simple, though, because the newer, younger members are in many ways more radical and anti-capitalist than the old guard, who were at home with the idea of compromises for the sake of power. It'll take time to work through.
Possibly interesting strategic developments in Germany. Thueringen seems about to elect a Left (ex-Communist) State leader with Social Democrat/Green support; in return for this, the Left leaders in the state had to agree to say that the former GDR was a society based on illegality (the German word Unrechtsstaat is slightly ambiguous, but it's basically rude). This is being interpreted as a trial run for a possible future Social Democrat led Red-Red-Green option nationally, which is slightly more possible, perhaps as a minority government, as the CDU have flatly ruled out any cooperation with the UKIP-like AfD.
It's all very tentative and may come unstuck (the alliance has a majority of 1), but may have significant medium-term implications.
The hostility between the SDP and Die Linke is still pretty strong as I understand.
I have never quite understood why the Left seems to defend the GDR to the extent it does in Germany. It was a highly militaristic state, that goose-stepped around terrifying its own people and was lead by a privileged ruling class. Hardly a socialist dream in many regards!
The DDR was a highly pernicious, dangerous, Soviet Style State; ruled by the Stasi ( I love alliteration ) under, you guessed it, an elite. This succumbed state has threads all through and over the FDR. Is it any wonder that the great German republic is is slowly choking in it's EU mattress.
I visited the Stasi museum in Berlin, as well as one about the history of the GDR. I was stuck by two things;
1. The enormous cost of keeping the people in, not just the Berlin Wall, but also the Inner German Border and patrolling the coastline. It must have practically bankrupt them!
2. The grim nature of life, even compared to other Eastern Block countries. I think everybody was surprised at the level of pollution and decay in the GDR when the border came down.
A part of me was slightly disappointing to have never visited when the wall was up, but my tourist interest is not worth the misery of millions of Germans.
Dave just described as the Grand Old Duke of York on 1pm news over EU red lines
By which news organisation?
BBC so presume it doesnt count,
Over promising has got him in a pickle apparently.
Ah the Bolshevik Broadcasting Corporation, who in the last few years, had to apologise and pay out for smearing a former Thatcher close confidante for being a paedo.
Who in the 80s, had to pay out for smearing two Tory MPs.
When was the last time the BBC had to pay out for smearing Labour people?
If the Labour party was the Titanic, the BBC would have spun it as a truly terrible night for the iceberg.
King Cole, smallpox hasn't been extirpated. It exists in two labs, one Russian, one America. The official line for retaining the virus is to 'develop a better way of fighting it'. Not hard to spot the logical flaw there...
Dave just described as the Grand Old Duke of York on 1pm news over EU red lines
By which news organisation?
BBC so presume it doesnt count,
Over promising has got him in a pickle apparently.
Ah the Bolshevik Broadcasting Corporation, who in the last few years, had to apologise and pay out for smearing a former Thatcher close confidante for being a paedo.
Who in the 80s, had to pay out for smearing two Tory MPs.
When was the last time the BBC had to pay out for smearing Labour people?
If the Labour party was the Titanic, the BBC would have spun it as a truly terrible night for the iceberg.
Our celebrity member Mike Read, the former Radio 1 DJ, has written a brand new single especially for UKIP and we need your help to get it to the top of the pop charts.
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Comments
EDIT: Oh, and I've praised Cameron for some things. For example, I've openly said that if he follows through with his demand for an emergency brake on EU immigration, then that would be a major repatriation. (Providing, of course, that it's set at an appropriate level.)
It seems to me that in these by elections, voters for whichever parties are in 3rd or 4th place vote UKIP (poss protest) and the incumbents struggle to keep their 2010 share
In what world, apart from Bizarro world, is that not having a go?
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9xLbcIianBg
Atrocious.
I've always judged advertising to be mostly trying to sell stuff that people don't want by inflating its worth. It 's a job and keeps them from bothering people on street corners, but it's hardly up there with William Wilberforce or Mother Theresa
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Thaddeus-White/e/B008C6RU98/
Edited extra bit: if you're into fantasy generally then all of them will be delightful, but if you're not that into it I'd suggest giving Sir Edric's Temple a try first. Very easy to get into, minimal lore/backstory, and quite a lot of taking the piss out of fantasy stereotypes, men, women, rich bastards, poor people etc. It's an equal opportunities smorgasbord of mockery.
I would suggest he would be happier posting on "above top secret"
I'm not convinced it's *that* left-wing, not compared to Brighton, and Bristol students are a slightly different breed from your typical guardianistas.
There were boundary changes in 2010, but quite a few Tories voted for Stephen Williams in 2010, so they may continue to vote tactically (denying it to the Greens) or return to the Tories.
The contrast between Manchester Central (Nov 2012) and Heywood & Middleton this month is telling.
In Manchester Central, the 2010 position was Lab 53, LD 27, Con 12, UKIP 1.5 (sixth, behind BNP and Greens), and the by-election saw Lab +16, LD -17, Con -7, UKIP +3.
In H&M, the 2010 scores were Lab 40, Con 27, LD 23, UKIP 2.6 (fifth, behind BNP), but the by-election saw Lab +1, Con -15, LD -18, UKIP +36.
Clearly it should also be worrying for the Tories and Lib Dems to be losing so much support but the fact that Labour is no longer picking it up in net terms cannot be ignored either.
It's an odd constituency, combining elements of wealthy Clifton and poor StPaul's. I can understand why the Greens might get some traction there, and a perfectly decent result, but win?
It's one of my more speculative bets so I would be delighted but somehow I don't think so.
Apparently the company, based in Kingston Upon Thames called MQR phone Rochester residents, ask them the same questions that are on Conservative party leaflets, followed up by a last question that smears Reckless
I think the insinuation is that Grant Shapps likes to use a false identity to get a message, beneficial to him, across
He actually said he thinks it looks like they are push polling
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2635019/Councillor-slammed-complained-salary-Twitter-despite-earning-32-000-year.html
As an aside, *why* would Labour and Lib Dem 'voters' not bother voting? Were those that didn't sufficiently content with the two right-of-centre candidates that they felt no need to vote against them? It strikes me as unlikely.
They main character was a heavy drinking North London based thriller writer, who liked to think of himself as a bit of a rough diamond, with a daughter from an ex relationship and whose first book had just been bought by a Hollywood film company for $1.8m!
Surely this tactic would only work if they had chucked Reckless out? It is hardly consistent to criticise him so personally when he was their candidate only 6 weeks ago
I don't see much sign of voters flocking to Labour's banner there. His majority may sink, but those voters might abstain/vote green rather than all flock to the Reds.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9mcKBK2wCc8
Obv substituting "Smoking" for "Ronseal" and possibly "Pack" for "Tin"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nick-clegg/11174093/Is-Nick-Clegg-the-biggest-hypocrite-in-British-politics.html
http://youtu.be/9xLbcIianBg
Mark @Mark_85
Look at the state of you, I mean look at the state of you. You, with that face. You're offensive @DouglasCarswell pic.twitter.com/PFWcc4G18f
Retweeted by Douglas Carswell MP
In Newark, changes from 2010
Labour 6,842 (-4,596), share of the vote fell by 4.6%, whilst the LD vote share collapsed by 17.4%.
Apache air assault helicopter gun camera AH-64 longbow
Uploaded on 27 Dec 2010
Category: Gaming
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/524168919930929154
and
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/524169196918554624
Coral @Coral
We've been battered! One punter from the North West won £36,450 from a £1 15-team acca this weekend! #bookiebashing
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B0Yx8vKIQAAYKvY.jpg
https://itunes.apple.com/gb/album/ukip-calypso-single/id928438196
Just seen Turkey saying it is allowing the Kurds to reinforce Kobane with Iraqi Kurdish fighters.
Counter attack??
Over promising has got him in a pickle apparently.
Will it be worth £1.60 extra to watch in 3D in screen 6 rather than 2d in screen 5 in your opinion?
Who in the 80s, had to pay out for smearing two Tory MPs.
When was the last time the BBC had to pay out for smearing Labour people?
If the Labour party was the Titanic, the BBC would have spun it as a truly terrible night for the iceberg.
Smashed into a million pieces etc.
Have you seen Zero Dark Thirty? The last half hour of that really brought home just how impressive and audacious the US military was with that attack. Several dozen commandos sent in underneath the radar in stealth helicopters, without the knowledge of the host government. They cut off the electricity supply to the compound from afar. When an unexpected micro climate forced one of the helicopters to crash, the pilot managed to land it safely without any injuries. They then secured the entire compound, holding back angry crowds from coming close, swept every floor systematically, repeatedly broke through reinforced doors, killed every target without any injuries on their side, kept virtually all of the women and children safe, confirmed the identification of the bodies, confiscated all the hard drives and paper files, destroyed the broken down helicopter, and got out of there before the Pakistani F-15s arrived. It was amazing.
The film sucks more than a hooker that swallowed a Dyson, but it does have the lovely and fragrant, and future member of my Harem, Megan Fox in it.
I was briefly a member of U&C - it's basically a club that you pay an annual subscription to (ie a donation) and then get invited to dinners with various MPs, party functionaries, hacks, etc. Usually at the Carlton & you end up paying for each event.
So nothing more than a fund raising vehicle, usually for Tories in their 30s and 40s. There are quite a few wannabe politicians who turn up, and then they trawl the ranks of the other donor clubs. I could never make any of the events so didn't see the value of staying a member
A bit like the fund raising dinners you were offering on your email list... So hardly that dodgy an organisation!
I could get flavour of the month and 25p change if its not worth it.
Considering the mauling he got from Barrosso on Sunday he might as well promise a Brexit on January 1st.
I met a props manager once who told me that she always sat through the cvredits at the end of the fil to make sure her name was there, while everyone else in the cinema pushed past her.
Does Brian Austin Green know about your harem plan
He'll be fine with it.
No damages though ?
Everybody complains about BBC bias.
http://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/itv-news-called-ed-miliband-the-labour-party-lady?bftw&utm_term=4ldqpgm#2fc6mtw
ITN foul up. They will rue the day. Must be an accident just like that perfect black square under Farage's nose.
Hunt the Tatoo sounds an interesting party game.
6 Aug 2014 - Megan Fox: I Don't Have Sex With My Husband.
Probably waiting for the Harem invite from TSE
Anyway I am off now to see a childrens film
Depends where the fossils occur? It might have been Canada if it was the north of Scotland.
A Scottish "first" disallowed by continental drift?
Hmmm.
The number of cannon shells is the giveaway....unlimited ammo was selected.
Who was it suggested giving ISIS an attractive target then annihilating them when they try and take it?
Seems the US thought it a good idea.
In general, I think fund-raising should be fund-raising, not dressed up as a club. And isn't there a tendency for donations to be deliberately depersonalised? An MP who might hesitate to get a gift from an ex-oligarch might feel comfortable about getting it from a "club".
I've stayed and dined at the Carlton a couple of times myself, incidentally - not as nice as the National Liberal Club!
It's all very tentative and may come unstuck (the alliance has a majority of 1), but may have significant medium-term implications.
Lab 33.6% (-0.5)
Con 31.2% (-0.3)
UKIP 17.1% (+0.9)
LD 7.9% (-0.2)
Lab lead 2.4% (-0.1)
Changes since the first ELBOW from 17th August:
Lab -2.5%
Con -2.0%
UKIP +4.0%
LD -0.8%
Lab lead -0.6%
I have never quite understood why the Left seems to defend the GDR to the extent it does in Germany. It was a highly militaristic state, that goose-stepped around terrifying its own people and was lead by a privileged ruling class. Hardly a socialist dream in many regards!
He accuses us of being Jason - like and facing both ways and is tearing his metaphorical hair out at the effrontery of us suggesting that we are different in any way.
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1401152/trivia?tab=qt&ref_=tt_trv_qu
http://www.scotsman.com/news/transport/prestwick-airport-flights-down-to-one-a-day-1-3533174
"PASSENGER flights at Prestwick Airport are being cut to as few as one a day from next month, The Scotsman can reveal.
The Ayrshire airport, bought by the Scottish Government last year to save it from closure, will handle its fewest flights for more than 20 years after Ryanair switched several routes to Glasgow."
The quid pro quo is that the Left Party is gingerly addressing the horrid defects of the GDR instead of treating it as the good old days.It was difficult for them earlier since a large part of their electorate were directly involved in the GDR system. The current younger membership are less attached to the tradition and therefore in that way somewhat more acceptable to the SPD - some of them are actually pretty much like the more left-wing Greens.
It's not simple, though, because the newer, younger members are in many ways more radical and anti-capitalist than the old guard, who were at home with the idea of compromises for the sake of power. It'll take time to work through.
What's the opposite of a collapse?
1. The enormous cost of keeping the people in, not just the Berlin Wall, but also the Inner German Border and patrolling the coastline. It must have practically bankrupt them!
2. The grim nature of life, even compared to other Eastern Block countries. I think everybody was surprised at the level of pollution and decay in the GDR when the border came down.
A part of me was slightly disappointing to have never visited when the wall was up, but my tourist interest is not worth the misery of millions of Germans.
Mr. Isam, erection?
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Leader of UKIP
UKIP Online
http://www.ukip.org/