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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling analysis: Rochester is a far far bigger challenge for UKIP than Clacton
I’ve become totally absorbed by the Rochester by-election the outcome of which, either way, will have a dramatic affect on the political environment in the six months to the May 7th general election.
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It would be useful if there had been any constituency-level opinion polls in either Clacton or Rochester & Strood about how people said they were going to vote. Some would have said UKIP even when there was no UKIP candidate.
(I remember that 3% of people in Scotland said they would vote Green in the constituency section of the Scottish Parliament election, even when there were no Green candidates in the constituency section (I think it was 1999)).
1. naming the Conservative candidate makes a difference following
2. a full constituency primary
3. having a female
4. the next polls being longer after the Clacton result and
5. the kitchen sink from the Tories compared to the Clacton gimme.
I agree that I make Reckless favourite still, but also that it's on a knife-edge.
Either move in a eurosceptic direction, and lose a lot of your parties funding, or stand against a rising tide of voter euroscepticism, lose the election, and lose most of your party funding anyway.
Barroso was equating it as "free movement of people" (which has been the classicial definition). But I have heard some suggestions that it could be interpreted as effectively meaning that work permits etc will be entirely administrative - the basic principle being that you can't come to the UK without an existing job offer.
That would seem to protect the key purpose of the "free movement" principle.
Of course a confident Labour party on its way to power would be expecting to come through the middle here and win. 2010 was a terrible result for Labour with a near 10% swing. They really ought to be stronger in a seat like this in anything like normal times and certainly in opposition. In fact this seat really ought to be within their grasp if the right wing vote is split in two.
But no one really believes this is going to happen. Instead Labour will be squeezed as will the previously reasonably chunky vote of the Lib Dems. How much they are squeezed and in what direction will determine the result. Tory optimists see glimmers of an anti UKIP coalition with soft Labour voters contemplating the lesser of 2 evils. If they are right 2015 will look a lot better for Cameron. If UKIP do win this the road looks long, hard and rocky.
As I have said before this is undoubtedly the most important by election of the Parliament.
They tend to be entrepreneur created businesses and/or financiers
What Cameron is looking for is a semi-detached relationship with the EU, a sort of friends with benefits arrangement. The other EU members may or may not agree to that but they will have to recognise that unless they do the relationship may well come to an end.
I find it difficult to judge how the ongoing EZ crisis is going to feed into this but it will play a part. The EZ is in very poor shape and will be worse by the time these negotiations are going on. This may mean that the members will be focused on treaty changes allowing them to further integrate their economy and a quid pro quo becomes possible. Or it may mean this is an unwelcome distraction.
My own guess is that the EU really would not want one of its major players to leave at this time. It would risk a serious unravelling of what is a fragile block. Also, no matter how much they seem to hate it, a major part of the EU's world status in financial market terms revolves around London. Without it they would look even more like a backwater than they do at the moment.
EU member states and the Commission have probably reached the view that Ed would be a lot easier to deal with since he wouldn't raise any of this. I think we can expect some more "unhelpful" interventions over the coming months. The Commission might get some help from their good friends in UKIP.
Can't believe the obsession with tactical voting on here, people assuming the wider electorate is as obsessed with politics as a few dozen on here.
The CBI is as naively pro-European as you suppose. The IoD (which represents SMEs) is much more sceptical.
If you have time, have a quick look at the Business for Britain website - there's a pretty good list of interesting supporters. In the event of a poor outcome from a negotiation, many of them would reluctantly support "in" but others would support out (FWIW, I doint know where I would end up). There are also some BOOers there, but not that many.
Germany, Sweden, France and I think Denmark have a lot of immigrants. Are they seen as a “problem”? If not, why not. If so would they not be on Briatin’s side in wanting revision?
I get ghe impression that “immigration” is one thing in the mind of opponents, but in reality a miulti-facted matter.
I have also been wondering if Cameron might basically be told to p1ss off by the EU forced to come home with nothing, if they feel comfortable in their ability to win a referendum, or are past caring if we stay or go. They dont seem to like him much in Brussels and taking an implacable position would either be a humiliation for Cameron and the UK if the vote is IN, or they get shot of a troublemaker if its OUT.
Yes - 15%
No - 5%
Could you please repeat that question? - 80%
"at the moment we borrow money from the Chinese in order to buy the things that the Chinese make for us."
Four years of Osborne as Chancellor and the UK has a government deficit over £100bn and a balance of payments deficit over £90bn.
To make it easier to borrow money from the Chinese the British government now sells bonds denoted in renminbi.
If you ask yourself why so many immigrants at Calais are desperate to get into the UK and are willing to risk death to get here, then the reason why they do not stay in France, Italy or Spain will become apparent.
Of course if any of these can get a EU passport en route to Calais, then it becomes more difficult to exclude them.
I had a dream that the Lib Dems were ahead of the SNP in a Scotland specific constituency poll !
If a a lefty really wants UKIP to fail they vote Tory. If they really want Dave to stumble they vote UKIP.
We've been before with the 'joining the euro' debate in the early 00s. Does any big business seriously advocate joining the euro now?
I agree with our host's assessment that right now this looks like it could be a cliffhanger and having backed and laid UKIP for a while, I'm currently laying them simply because the price is far too short on present information.
I made my bets, and my arguments purely from facts
Ukip won the euros by a distance
Ukip have the incumbent mp
Ukip are 9% ahead in the only poll
What are the facts the conservatives are using? They are REALLY TRYING HARD?
I think Tories will hold Rochester and I've put my money where my mouth is. So Mike's Survation analysis is heartening from a betting point of view. A UKIP win would of course be far more entertaining as the big parties have a collective nervous breakdown 4 months before the big poll.
The Barroso utterances will help Cameron. Doesn't matter whether he's right or wrong. An unelected foreign bureaucrat from Brussels coming over here and attacking the PM's position is akin to being insulted by a French monarch in the 14th century.
None of which is to say UKIP won't win; they clearly stand a good chance. It is, however, to put things in some perspective.
1) a lot of people back UKIP at the Euro elections but not otherwise, see 2009/2010.
2) true
3) with the most UKIP-friendly pollster on a nowcast.
There will be a fair amount of tactical voting and this probably won't benefit UKIP overall.
And yes, the Conservatives possibly having a much better ground game than UKIP, who to date in by-elections have generally shown themselves to be enthusiastic but disorganised, potentially really matters.
The Beeb ticker has linked to a story in the FT about Osborne and Alexander telling ministers not to go on a spending spree as there's no money for it. Apart from that phraseology having an unfortunate echo of Liam Byrne's note, it strikes me that - if true - this is a very important story about the big battle-lines over which the GE will be fought i.e. the job of fixing Labour's mess is not yet done and it's far too early to hand back the keys to the guys who crashed the car last time. Labour's response will no doubt be that the Tories and Lib Dems have had long enough to fix it and it's their fault if they haven't.
However, the bigger picture would be that if this is the intention, it'll drag the economy back centre-stage and push off Labour's preferred topics of education and the NHS.
I also dispute those who think Cameron absolutely will not, under any circumstances, leave or accept a motion to leave, the EU.
He allowed a vote on AV, which he did not want. Far more importantly, he allowed a vote to break up the United Kingdom.
I have also been wondering if Cameron might basically be told to p1ss off by the EU forced to come home with nothing, if they feel comfortable in their ability to win a referendum, or are past caring if we stay or go. They dont seem to like him much in Brussels and taking an implacable position would either be a humiliation for Cameron and the UK if the vote is IN, or they get shot of a troublemaker if its OUT.
The EU doesn't work like that - they never go out of their way to humiliate even awkward members. But they certainly don't feel in the mood to do anything special for Britain - Cameron has burned through the goodwill, as we saw with the Juncker thing and the leaked comments by Sikorski, from one of our traditional allies. They'll be pleased to do a deal on benefits (nobody much cares including many of the migrants, contrary to popular belief) and anything that is mainly of interest to the Brits (something nice for the City). But curtail free movement? Nope. That's right. Doesn't mean he'll be horrible to Cameron, just wants to make it clear that free movement isn't negotiable.
But we all know it's nonsense, hence labours price
All I would say is that shrewd money moves political markets very quickly, and the Tories have been. 3/1 for over a week despite all on here saying it's massive value
That said I am not as confident as I was... Another poll would be nice!
That being said, if there is no news, I'd probably put some (small) trading money on the Conservatives (or lay Reckless) around the 1.2 - 1.25 level, if only because there will probably be some good news for the Conservatives between now and election day.
Consider the eurozone sovereign debt crisis resurgent, Germany in recession and the UK, one of very few massive net contributors, leaving the EU.
Already Club Med are trying their best to wriggle free from the constraints of austerity to go on a spending binge the liver of their finances can ill afford, whilst relying on the long-suffering Frau Merkel to pick up the tab if it all goes wrong.
I doubt that full confluence of events will occur (don't think the UK will leave because I doubt we'll have a referendum and, if we did, it's entirely possible it would be lost) but it is not beyond the realms of possibility.
Do the Tories offer a second referendum on what we ACTUALLY get? Absolutely not, unless it actually transfers powers the other way. So we'll get to vote on whether we agree with membership on a new semi-detached basis, which I'd expect to pass easily, and then we'll end up with something quite similar to what we've got now. Sweden and Denmark have immigrant-sceptic parties on 10-20%, though in Sweden in particular they are regarded with loathing by other parties (the Swedish Tories left Government rather than talk to them). France has got the FN which is doing well for lots of reasons including this. Germany is very resistant - xenophobia didn't work out well in living memory. But in all four cases the immigrants that sceptics worry about are generally non-EU, so free movement isn't the issue.
But you're absolutely right the "concerned about immigration" covers lots of attitudes - some economic, some cultural, some racist, with many people only concerned in one way and rejecting the others. People who say "I'm not racist but..." sometimes, perhaps often, genuinely mean it. Labour voters. Assuming the party isn't expected to win, they have a choice of voting Labour (keep the flag flying), Tory (stuff UKIP) or UKIP (stuff the Tories). Hard to predict.
IMHO though the economy and NHS are linked. Unless we can become more entrepreneurial and drive forward innovation and industry we are, as a country, not going to be able to afford the £30+ billion extra the NHS needs with our demographics over next ten or so years. Never mind put in place decent social care. I just don't hear anything from Labour about an industrial policy or Mandelson type stuff about business growth and exports. They need Lord Adonis to be pushed forward and talking about this stuff.
Most people won't know who Mr Barroso is. Just some fat-cat from Brussels trying to tell us what to do, and that may be the impression he leaves. I suspect you're right about Cameron's negotiations, though.
Mr Dancer,
While you’re here ... I’ve read the e-tomes you recommended (yours included) and I thought they were rattling good stories which just happened to be in an SF setting.
However, the story wot I wrote is aimed at being proper SF geekery. Despite this, Wild Wolf Publishing have released it on Amazon . If anyone is interested –
UK link:
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Ever-Rolling-Stream-Colin-Davy-ebook/dp/B00OMJK3XO/ref=sr_1_3?ie=UTF8&qid=1413623113&sr=8-3&keywords=an+ever+rolling+stream
US link:
http://www.amazon.com/Ever-Rolling-Stream-Colin-Davy-ebook/dp/B00OMJK3XO/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1413623219&sr=8-1&keywords=an+ever+rolling+stream+colin
To go into paperback if the ratings are good enough. They are a specialist publisher in “dark, edgy” stuff and I thought mine was light and thoughtful. Still, what do I know?
As it is proper scientific stuff, it’s obviously unsuitable for Arts graduates but as the subtitle is “History reborn”, and the hero is a historian, it’s probably OK for an historian to read, even an ancient one, like you.
It does involve stuff like genetic manipulation and skin colour, and global warming, politics and sex, not to mention the world being governed by Nigel Farage.
OK, I’m lying about that last one, but it is the sort of stuff that some on PB fret about.
But it’s no use anyone who graduated from Oxford with a PPE degree trying to understand it, so I won’t even tell them about it.
Here endeth the plug.
For 2014, their numbers are: Those are (a) not big numbers, and (b) all show dramatically improving trends. (Spain and Ireland were -6% a couple of years.)
The changes that the periphery have asked for has been - essentially - to slow the pace of austerity, not to dramatically increase spending.
I would also point out that Irish debt-to-GDP is falling; Portugal will probably peak this quarter, and Italy should start to decline from the middle of next year.
That way the Ukippers know whom to target when knocking on doors.
The two conservative candidates were on Sunday politics yesterday and were so crap they were taken the piss out if by the way
I will stick my neck on the line and say people who disregard the 2014 euro results on the basis of what happened in 2009/10 will come a cropper in May.
Also the fact that Carswell won so easily is making people think reckless is failing, but he is being judged against a record win... If he is even 7% ahead in the polls then 2/7 is not too short
Also Ukip won a nearby council election on a decent swing last week
But as I say the feeling that 3/1 is big is beginning to resonate.. I just don't know why .. Prob cos I'm on here and everyone says it! But why is it still 3/1 if it's such massive value? Whys no one smashing it?
the names of Portuguese people are pronounced according to the rules of pronouncing things in the Portuguese language!!! #Grrrrrrr....
Numerous TV journalists (Marr yesterday, Whatsername just now) are *STILL* referring to the outgoing EU Commission President as "Hosé Manuel Barroso" even though they have already had TEN YEARS to get used to learning the basic fact that his name is Jose not Hosé.
For Sir Edric, that was definitely the aim (helped by one of my beta readers not really liking fantasy).
Reading two books and beta-reading another at the minute, but I think I should have time later this month. I'll download the sample now (well, when my Kindle's recharged) so I don't forget it. (Hopefully. There's a ton of stuff on there for me to read).
Congrats on getting published
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/government-thinks-love-actually-is-a-manual-for-how-to-run-the-country-says-douglas-carswell-9805067.html
Be very wary of constituency polls in general, not just this one. The pollsters just don't have the same experience of demographic weighting by constituency as they do nationally. They will make more mistakes as a result.
http://youtu.be/XkqZAE-mus0
You don't trust the euro results or the survation poll, fair enough, so it comes down to the Tories wanting it more?
As for your second point, my impression is that UKIP voters tend to vote for UKIP because they want UKIP. It's hard to predict how the Labour vote will break but any evidence of tactical voting for the Tories to keep UKIP out would be unusual, surprising, and a very significant pointer for the GE.
Far from solid. Pure opinion
But I'm watching this by-election for pointers rather than making confident predictions.
What I said was:
It'll also be interesting to see if:
1. naming the Conservative candidate makes a difference following
2. a full constituency primary
3. having a female
4. the next polls being longer after the Clacton result and
5. the kitchen sink from the Tories compared to the Clacton gimme.
Five solid 'reasons' then for thinking 3/1 is too long on the Conservatives, or that 78% UKIP is far too short.
Is it fair to say it will overwhelmingly be Tory voters who bother to respond?
"I bought Reckless at 1.8..."
But he was available at 2.2...for a long time, Robert. Tut, tut. You should listen to your Old Man more.
Seriously, I make Reckless a 4/6 chance. David H gives a good run down of the reasons to bet against him. He overlooks the Clacton effect and improved standing of UKIP in the national polls, but the basic idea is right.
This should be a close contest and the prices aren't reflecting that yet.
Most of my best winning bets have occurred when I have bet against my personal tastes. They have proved to be my real winners. I'll tantalise you with one example: I've twice won well on Arsenal as title winners which for a Spurs supporter takes some doing.
Italy, I would tend to agree with. It has a largely unreformed labour market, and high levels of government debt. That being said, it has a reform minded prime minister, and the Italian state has vast amounts of assets that could be sold (easily 40% of GDP), as - unlike the UK, Germany, France, etc. - Italy never went through the 1980s privatisation phase that much of the rest of Europe did. I would also point out that the data from the temporary staffing agencies (Adecco and Randstat) show a rapid improvement in underlying demand in Italy. If you hang on, I'll find them...
Finally, I'd point out that the ECB is now committed to QE - albeit through ABS and direct loans to banks rather than through naked purchases of government bonds - so the likelihood of deflation is lower than it was six moths ago. (As an aside, I'd point out that one of the reasons why the Eurozone has slid towards deflation this year is because the ECB removed massive amounts of money from the system. Essentially the balance sheet of the ECB contracted by around €1trn from peak, draining a lot of liquidity and reducing money in circulation.)
You're right that the smart (trading) punter should bet against him, though. There is hidden optionality in laying him: if news comes out that's favourable to UKIP the price will only move 1-2% in that direction given we're at 1.3 now. But if news comes out the other way, we could see a 20% move to 1.6 or so.
In reality I suspect a Tory victory will only happen if the successful candidate in the primary demonstrates personal strengths that make her a strong alternative to Reckless. One of the candidates I notice has in the past expressed strong views about the Palestinian situation on her Twitter pages. Although I don't wholly agree with her views on that subject I hope both candidates don't allow themselves to be subsumed by the party machine and are confident enough to be their own women - the voters respect that.
Keep clutching at those straws.