YouGov predict major losses for the Tories on Thursday – politicalbetting.com

System · April 2023

YouGov predict major losses for the Tories on Thursday – politicalbetting.com

Our local elections MRP of key council battlegrounds suggests Labour could be set to take control of Darlington, Plymouth, Swindon, and Worcester.The Tories may also lose East Cambridgeshire to the Lib Dems, and Rugby and Windsor & Maidenhead to NOChttps://t.co/QanCl1WvlQ pic.twitter.com/De77YjHflb

Read the full story here

TheScreamingEagles · April 2023

First like the Parthians at Carrhae.

DavidL · April 2023

This is presumably based on their poll earlier in the week? It wasn't a good one for the Conservatives, that's for sure.

TheScreamingEagles · April 2023

DavidL said:
This is presumably based on their poll earlier in the week? It wasn't a good one for the Conservatives, that's for sure.

No, different poll.

YouGov interviewed over 6,004 British adults between 21 and 28 April 2023 about the upcoming elections, and used Multilevel Regression and Post-Stratification (MRP) to model the estimated vote outcomes. MRP models first estimate the relationship between a wide variety of characteristics about people and their opinions – in this case, beliefs about their local areas – in what is called a ‘multilevel model’, which allows us to account for specific area (in this case, council) level effects as well as background information about respondents themselves. MRP then uses data at the local level to predict outcomes based on the concentration of various different types of people who live there.

The model assigns each type of person a probability of voting for each party at the local election (this is the ‘post-stratification’ component), and then estimates the area-level distributions using information about how many of those specific types of voters live in each area. In this instance, 1000 draws from the posterior distribution of the multilevel model were used to predict the council-level probabilities, which ran for 10,000 iterations across four parallel chains. MRP has been successfully used to predict the outcomes of both the 2017 and 2019 UK general elections.

DavidL · April 2023

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:
This is presumably based on their poll earlier in the week? It wasn't a good one for the Conservatives, that's for sure.
No, different poll.

YouGov interviewed over 6,004 British adults between 21 and 28 April 2023 about the upcoming elections, and used Multilevel Regression and Post-Stratification (MRP) to model the estimated vote outcomes. MRP models first estimate the relationship between a wide variety of characteristics about people and their opinions – in this case, beliefs about their local areas – in what is called a ‘multilevel model’, which allows us to account for specific area (in this case, council) level effects as well as background information about respondents themselves. MRP then uses data at the local level to predict outcomes based on the concentration of various different types of people who live there.

The model assigns each type of person a probability of voting for each party at the local election (this is the ‘post-stratification’ component), and then estimates the area-level distributions using information about how many of those specific types of voters live in each area. In this instance, 1000 draws from the posterior distribution of the multilevel model were used to predict the council-level probabilities, which ran for 10,000 iterations across four parallel chains. MRP has been successfully used to predict the outcomes of both the 2017 and 2019 UK general elections.

So, 2 bad polls. Hmm...

TheScreamingEagles · April 2023

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:
This is presumably based on their poll earlier in the week? It wasn't a good one for the Conservatives, that's for sure.
No, different poll.

YouGov interviewed over 6,004 British adults between 21 and 28 April 2023 about the upcoming elections, and used Multilevel Regression and Post-Stratification (MRP) to model the estimated vote outcomes. MRP models first estimate the relationship between a wide variety of characteristics about people and their opinions – in this case, beliefs about their local areas – in what is called a ‘multilevel model’, which allows us to account for specific area (in this case, council) level effects as well as background information about respondents themselves. MRP then uses data at the local level to predict outcomes based on the concentration of various different types of people who live there.

The model assigns each type of person a probability of voting for each party at the local election (this is the ‘post-stratification’ component), and then estimates the area-level distributions using information about how many of those specific types of voters live in each area. In this instance, 1000 draws from the posterior distribution of the multilevel model were used to predict the council-level probabilities, which ran for 10,000 iterations across four parallel chains. MRP has been successfully used to predict the outcomes of both the 2017 and 2019 UK general elections.
So, 2 bad polls. Hmm...

Smallest Labour lead in 2023 is 10%.

Quite a few bad polls for the Tories in 2023.

WillG · April 2023

carnforth said:

WillG said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Leon said:

Theweb said:

Leon said:
I’d also be interested in seeing the polling data that shows the Brits are AOK with net migration of ONE MILLION PEOPLE a year

I don’t believe it exists, it’s a load of bollocks. Poll after poll shows that Brits want minimal or even zero net migration. They can see the pressure on the NHS, they can see the shit in our rivers as our system struggles to cope with a population gone from around 58m to 68m in 25 years, largely through immigration

1m a year means we go from 68 to 78 million in another decade, possibly overtaking Germany as the most populous European country with less than half the land. We will have to build 1m homes a year, which we can never do, where do they all go? Do we have any countryside left?

PBers do talk an awful lot of virtue signaling shite on this subject. 1m a year, yeah, no biggie

The polls might show that but underneath the brits really arent that bothered. They like to spout on this subject but it aint serious. If it was far right parties would be rising which aint happening.
That vote for Brexit clearly escaped your attention, then
Brexit wasn't about immigration. Leave voters are a tolerant and welcoming folk. Indeed it was to increase immigration from other parts of the globe - thus broadening diversity and eschewing the white, euro-centric immigration that EU membership tended to impose - that, after the reclamation of sovereignty, was the prime motivation behind their decision. This has been explained on these threads time and time again.
Yes, the purpose was to replace unskilled migration from the EU with high skilled migration from the rest of the world. The problem is that it is low skilled migration that has taken off.
The Shortage Occupation List contains "graphic designer" at a salary of £18800, a job which can often be done remotely, for example. Perhaps there is a good reason for its inclusion, but I would love to know what it is....

Any "artist" earning £16800 a year qualifies.

WillG · April 2023

WillG said:

carnforth said:

WillG said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Leon said:

Theweb said:

Leon said:
I’d also be interested in seeing the polling data that shows the Brits are AOK with net migration of ONE MILLION PEOPLE a year

I don’t believe it exists, it’s a load of bollocks. Poll after poll shows that Brits want minimal or even zero net migration. They can see the pressure on the NHS, they can see the shit in our rivers as our system struggles to cope with a population gone from around 58m to 68m in 25 years, largely through immigration

1m a year means we go from 68 to 78 million in another decade, possibly overtaking Germany as the most populous European country with less than half the land. We will have to build 1m homes a year, which we can never do, where do they all go? Do we have any countryside left?

PBers do talk an awful lot of virtue signaling shite on this subject. 1m a year, yeah, no biggie

The polls might show that but underneath the brits really arent that bothered. They like to spout on this subject but it aint serious. If it was far right parties would be rising which aint happening.
That vote for Brexit clearly escaped your attention, then
Brexit wasn't about immigration. Leave voters are a tolerant and welcoming folk. Indeed it was to increase immigration from other parts of the globe - thus broadening diversity and eschewing the white, euro-centric immigration that EU membership tended to impose - that, after the reclamation of sovereignty, was the prime motivation behind their decision. This has been explained on these threads time and time again.
Yes, the purpose was to replace unskilled migration from the EU with high skilled migration from the rest of the world. The problem is that it is low skilled migration that has taken off.
The Shortage Occupation List contains "graphic designer" at a salary of £18800, a job which can often be done remotely, for example. Perhaps there is a good reason for its inclusion, but I would love to know what it is....
Any "artist" earning £16800 a year qualifies.

And the Migration Advisory Committee wants plasterers and joiners added. It is ridiculous.

And nobody talks about family migration, where you can bring in a teenage, niqab-wearing, arranged bride, as long as you earn 19k a year from your Deliveroo job.

ydoethur · April 2023

WillG said:

carnforth said:

WillG said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Leon said:

Theweb said:

Leon said:
I’d also be interested in seeing the polling data that shows the Brits are AOK with net migration of ONE MILLION PEOPLE a year

I don’t believe it exists, it’s a load of bollocks. Poll after poll shows that Brits want minimal or even zero net migration. They can see the pressure on the NHS, they can see the shit in our rivers as our system struggles to cope with a population gone from around 58m to 68m in 25 years, largely through immigration

1m a year means we go from 68 to 78 million in another decade, possibly overtaking Germany as the most populous European country with less than half the land. We will have to build 1m homes a year, which we can never do, where do they all go? Do we have any countryside left?

PBers do talk an awful lot of virtue signaling shite on this subject. 1m a year, yeah, no biggie

The polls might show that but underneath the brits really arent that bothered. They like to spout on this subject but it aint serious. If it was far right parties would be rising which aint happening.
That vote for Brexit clearly escaped your attention, then
Brexit wasn't about immigration. Leave voters are a tolerant and welcoming folk. Indeed it was to increase immigration from other parts of the globe - thus broadening diversity and eschewing the white, euro-centric immigration that EU membership tended to impose - that, after the reclamation of sovereignty, was the prime motivation behind their decision. This has been explained on these threads time and time again.
Yes, the purpose was to replace unskilled migration from the EU with high skilled migration from the rest of the world. The problem is that it is low skilled migration that has taken off.
The Shortage Occupation List contains "graphic designer" at a salary of £18800, a job which can often be done remotely, for example. Perhaps there is a good reason for its inclusion, but I would love to know what it is....
Any "artist" earning £16800 a year qualifies.

I assumed it was to draw skilled migrants.

malcolmg · April 2023

Salmond: “pointing out that Scotland’s Crown Office is currently investigating allegations he made about witnesses committing perjury during his trial. “I’m content with how that’s going and the seriousness with which it’s being taken.”
Another investigation.

Mexicanpete · April 2023

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:
This is presumably based on their poll earlier in the week? It wasn't a good one for the Conservatives, that's for sure.
No, different poll.

YouGov interviewed over 6,004 British adults between 21 and 28 April 2023 about the upcoming elections, and used Multilevel Regression and Post-Stratification (MRP) to model the estimated vote outcomes. MRP models first estimate the relationship between a wide variety of characteristics about people and their opinions – in this case, beliefs about their local areas – in what is called a ‘multilevel model’, which allows us to account for specific area (in this case, council) level effects as well as background information about respondents themselves. MRP then uses data at the local level to predict outcomes based on the concentration of various different types of people who live there.

The model assigns each type of person a probability of voting for each party at the local election (this is the ‘post-stratification’ component), and then estimates the area-level distributions using information about how many of those specific types of voters live in each area. In this instance, 1000 draws from the posterior distribution of the multilevel model were used to predict the council-level probabilities, which ran for 10,000 iterations across four parallel chains. MRP has been successfully used to predict the outcomes of both the 2017 and 2019 UK general elections.
So, 2 bad polls. Hmm...
Smallest Labour lead in 2023 is 10%.

Quite a few bad polls for the Tories in 2023.

Tories invariably outperform the polls, and we will see just how effective the voter suppression project has been, and then, whether it can be successfully progressed through to the GE.

TheScreamingEagles · April 2023

WillG said:

WillG said:

carnforth said:

WillG said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Leon said:

Theweb said:

Leon said:
I’d also be interested in seeing the polling data that shows the Brits are AOK with net migration of ONE MILLION PEOPLE a year

I don’t believe it exists, it’s a load of bollocks. Poll after poll shows that Brits want minimal or even zero net migration. They can see the pressure on the NHS, they can see the shit in our rivers as our system struggles to cope with a population gone from around 58m to 68m in 25 years, largely through immigration

1m a year means we go from 68 to 78 million in another decade, possibly overtaking Germany as the most populous European country with less than half the land. We will have to build 1m homes a year, which we can never do, where do they all go? Do we have any countryside left?

PBers do talk an awful lot of virtue signaling shite on this subject. 1m a year, yeah, no biggie

The polls might show that but underneath the brits really arent that bothered. They like to spout on this subject but it aint serious. If it was far right parties would be rising which aint happening.
That vote for Brexit clearly escaped your attention, then
Brexit wasn't about immigration. Leave voters are a tolerant and welcoming folk. Indeed it was to increase immigration from other parts of the globe - thus broadening diversity and eschewing the white, euro-centric immigration that EU membership tended to impose - that, after the reclamation of sovereignty, was the prime motivation behind their decision. This has been explained on these threads time and time again.
Yes, the purpose was to replace unskilled migration from the EU with high skilled migration from the rest of the world. The problem is that it is low skilled migration that has taken off.
The Shortage Occupation List contains "graphic designer" at a salary of £18800, a job which can often be done remotely, for example. Perhaps there is a good reason for its inclusion, but I would love to know what it is....
Any "artist" earning £16800 a year qualifies.
And the Migration Advisory Committee wants plasterers and joiners added. It is ridiculous.

And nobody talks about family migration, where you can bring in a teenage, niqab-wearing, arranged bride, as long as you earn 19k a year from your Deliveroo job.

Hurrah for the British Empire.

Chris · April 2023

WillG said:
... niqab-wearing ...

Now, just imagine the reaction if you'd expressed concern about bringing people into the country wearing yarmulkas ...

Omnium · April 2023

TheScreamingEagles said:

WillG said:

WillG said:

carnforth said:

WillG said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Leon said:

Theweb said:

Leon said:
I’d also be interested in seeing the polling data that shows the Brits are AOK with net migration of ONE MILLION PEOPLE a year

I don’t believe it exists, it’s a load of bollocks. Poll after poll shows that Brits want minimal or even zero net migration. They can see the pressure on the NHS, they can see the shit in our rivers as our system struggles to cope with a population gone from around 58m to 68m in 25 years, largely through immigration

1m a year means we go from 68 to 78 million in another decade, possibly overtaking Germany as the most populous European country with less than half the land. We will have to build 1m homes a year, which we can never do, where do they all go? Do we have any countryside left?

PBers do talk an awful lot of virtue signaling shite on this subject. 1m a year, yeah, no biggie

The polls might show that but underneath the brits really arent that bothered. They like to spout on this subject but it aint serious. If it was far right parties would be rising which aint happening.
That vote for Brexit clearly escaped your attention, then
Brexit wasn't about immigration. Leave voters are a tolerant and welcoming folk. Indeed it was to increase immigration from other parts of the globe - thus broadening diversity and eschewing the white, euro-centric immigration that EU membership tended to impose - that, after the reclamation of sovereignty, was the prime motivation behind their decision. This has been explained on these threads time and time again.
Yes, the purpose was to replace unskilled migration from the EU with high skilled migration from the rest of the world. The problem is that it is low skilled migration that has taken off.
The Shortage Occupation List contains "graphic designer" at a salary of £18800, a job which can often be done remotely, for example. Perhaps there is a good reason for its inclusion, but I would love to know what it is....
Any "artist" earning £16800 a year qualifies.
And the Migration Advisory Committee wants plasterers and joiners added. It is ridiculous.

And nobody talks about family migration, where you can bring in a teenage, niqab-wearing, arranged bride, as long as you earn 19k a year from your Deliveroo job.
Hurrah for the British Empire.

It's odd that we've become so bad at administration.

Omnium · April 2023

Chris said:

WillG said:
... niqab-wearing ...
Now, just imagine the reaction if you'd expressed concern about bringing people into the country wearing yarmulkas ...

It's baseball caps that I'd like to see outlawed.

Mexicanpete · April 2023

WillG said:

WillG said:

carnforth said:

WillG said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Leon said:

Theweb said:

Leon said:
I’d also be interested in seeing the polling data that shows the Brits are AOK with net migration of ONE MILLION PEOPLE a year

I don’t believe it exists, it’s a load of bollocks. Poll after poll shows that Brits want minimal or even zero net migration. They can see the pressure on the NHS, they can see the shit in our rivers as our system struggles to cope with a population gone from around 58m to 68m in 25 years, largely through immigration

1m a year means we go from 68 to 78 million in another decade, possibly overtaking Germany as the most populous European country with less than half the land. We will have to build 1m homes a year, which we can never do, where do they all go? Do we have any countryside left?

PBers do talk an awful lot of virtue signaling shite on this subject. 1m a year, yeah, no biggie

The polls might show that but underneath the brits really arent that bothered. They like to spout on this subject but it aint serious. If it was far right parties would be rising which aint happening.
That vote for Brexit clearly escaped your attention, then
Brexit wasn't about immigration. Leave voters are a tolerant and welcoming folk. Indeed it was to increase immigration from other parts of the globe - thus broadening diversity and eschewing the white, euro-centric immigration that EU membership tended to impose - that, after the reclamation of sovereignty, was the prime motivation behind their decision. This has been explained on these threads time and time again.
Yes, the purpose was to replace unskilled migration from the EU with high skilled migration from the rest of the world. The problem is that it is low skilled migration that has taken off.
The Shortage Occupation List contains "graphic designer" at a salary of £18800, a job which can often be done remotely, for example. Perhaps there is a good reason for its inclusion, but I would love to know what it is....
Any "artist" earning £16800 a year qualifies.
And the Migration Advisory Committee wants plasterers and joiners added. It is ridiculous.

And nobody talks about family migration, where you can bring in a teenage, niqab-wearing, arranged bride, as long as you earn 19k a year from your Deliveroo job.

Interesting narrative there Will. Do you think you might actually harbour some sort of unpleasant prejudice?

another_richard · April 2023

WillG said:

carnforth said:

WillG said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Leon said:

Theweb said:

Leon said:
I’d also be interested in seeing the polling data that shows the Brits are AOK with net migration of ONE MILLION PEOPLE a year

I don’t believe it exists, it’s a load of bollocks. Poll after poll shows that Brits want minimal or even zero net migration. They can see the pressure on the NHS, they can see the shit in our rivers as our system struggles to cope with a population gone from around 58m to 68m in 25 years, largely through immigration

1m a year means we go from 68 to 78 million in another decade, possibly overtaking Germany as the most populous European country with less than half the land. We will have to build 1m homes a year, which we can never do, where do they all go? Do we have any countryside left?

PBers do talk an awful lot of virtue signaling shite on this subject. 1m a year, yeah, no biggie

The polls might show that but underneath the brits really arent that bothered. They like to spout on this subject but it aint serious. If it was far right parties would be rising which aint happening.
That vote for Brexit clearly escaped your attention, then
Brexit wasn't about immigration. Leave voters are a tolerant and welcoming folk. Indeed it was to increase immigration from other parts of the globe - thus broadening diversity and eschewing the white, euro-centric immigration that EU membership tended to impose - that, after the reclamation of sovereignty, was the prime motivation behind their decision. This has been explained on these threads time and time again.
Yes, the purpose was to replace unskilled migration from the EU with high skilled migration from the rest of the world. The problem is that it is low skilled migration that has taken off.
The Shortage Occupation List contains "graphic designer" at a salary of £18800, a job which can often be done remotely, for example. Perhaps there is a good reason for its inclusion, but I would love to know what it is....
Any "artist" earning £16800 a year qualifies.

The hourly living wage for 23+ is now £10.42 or for a 39 hour week over £21k per year.

Yet some of the skilled pay rates according to the government include:

Chemical scientists – only jobs in the nuclear industry Scotland only 80% of going rate: £21,360(£10.53 per hour)

Laboratory technicians – all jobs England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland 80% of going rate: £14,560 (£7.18 per hour)

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/skilled-worker-visa-shortage-occupations/skilled-worker-visa-shortage-occupations

Cookie · April 2023

Thread has moved on without me...
In a bit of a flashback to the 1980s, I'm currently in an Argos buying a thermos flask. It's terribly exciting - as if Amazon was a real life store. And less than 10 minutes from deciding to but the product to standing here with it in my hand. Slightly surprised to find these places still exist.

I'm now celebrating my purchase with a take away coffee from costa, which is, it turns out, cash only. Maybe this really is the 80s.

Scott_xP · April 2023

Cookie said:
And less than 10 minutes from deciding to but the product to standing here with it in my hand. Slightly surprised to find these places still exist.

These places? You mean, shops ?

Cookie · April 2023

Scott_xP said:

Cookie said:
And less than 10 minutes from deciding to but the product to standing here with it in my hand. Slightly surprised to find these places still exist.
These places? You mean, shops ?

Well, specifically Argos. I would have thought the internet would render Argos entirely superfluous. But here it still is, around 25 years after by first Amazon order. Hooray for inertia.

another_richard · April 2023

Cookie said:
Thread has moved on without me...
In a bit of a flashback to the 1980s, I'm currently in an Argos buying a thermos flask. It's terribly exciting - as if Amazon was a real life store. And less than 10 minutes from deciding to but the product to standing here with it in my hand. Slightly surprised to find these places still exist.

I'm now celebrating my purchase with a take away coffee from costa, which is, it turns out, cash only. Maybe this really is the 80s.

Did your coffee cost 10p and come in a styrofoam cup ?

TheScreamingEagles · April 2023

By my reckoning, Dirty Leeds have conceded 23 Premier League goals this April.

#GoingDown

ping · April 2023

Lol

Liz Truss nicked the bathrobes from Chevening;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65441189

TheScreamingEagles · April 2023

Cookie said:

Scott_xP said:

Cookie said:
And less than 10 minutes from deciding to but the product to standing here with it in my hand. Slightly surprised to find these places still exist.
These places? You mean, shops ?
Well, specifically Argos. I would have thought the internet would render Argos entirely superfluous. But here it still is, around 25 years after by first Amazon order. Hooray for inertia.

Argos exists for two primary reasons

1) People who aren't internet savvy/or need something that day

2) The Sainsbury's merger is very much keeping them alive.

The Argos stores are getting merged into Sainsbury's stores, I'd expect the Argos brand to disappear as it is fully integrated into Sainsbury's.

MoonRabbit · April 2023

Interesting thread header, building on what Sky, who have a YouGov tie in, gave us a few days ago. Great link to the betting.

However. YouGov interviewed 6,004 British adults between 21 and 28 April. Not a huge sample to back up such precision predictions, or is it? My warning is there was similar fanfare of Starmer doing well in Red Wall before last year, but it proved sticky and not so bad for Tories on the night, though Tories still had Boris in Red Wall and traditional battlegrounds then, have now switched to Sunak.

Cookie · April 2023

another_richard said:

Cookie said:
Thread has moved on without me...
In a bit of a flashback to the 1980s, I'm currently in an Argos buying a thermos flask. It's terribly exciting - as if Amazon was a real life store. And less than 10 minutes from deciding to but the product to standing here with it in my hand. Slightly surprised to find these places still exist.

I'm now celebrating my purchase with a take away coffee from costa, which is, it turns out, cash only. Maybe this really is the 80s.
Did your coffee cost 10p and come in a styrofoam cup ?

No, sadly not.
Sadly in that it would have been fun. Not that it would have been enjoyable coffee.

I don't know if this is a feature of the 80s, but my change from a tenner included 16 5p pieces (plus other coins - it wasn't THAT expensive).

Fairliered · April 2023

Omnium said:

Chris said:

WillG said:
... niqab-wearing ...
Now, just imagine the reaction if you'd expressed concern about bringing people into the country wearing yarmulkas ...
It's baseball caps that I'd like to see outlawed.

A baseball cap is an amazing thing. When someone wears one it sucks the intelligence out of their brain.

Cookie · April 2023

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cookie said:

Scott_xP said:

Cookie said:
And less than 10 minutes from deciding to but the product to standing here with it in my hand. Slightly surprised to find these places still exist.
These places? You mean, shops ?
Well, specifically Argos. I would have thought the internet would render Argos entirely superfluous. But here it still is, around 25 years after by first Amazon order. Hooray for inertia.
Argos exists for two primary reasons

1) People who aren't internet savvy/or need something that day

2) The Sainsbury's merger is very much keeping them alive.

The Argos stores are getting merged into Sainsbury's stores, I'd expect the Argos brand to disappear as it is fully integrated into Sainsbury's.

For me, it was the discovery that my Thermos Flask is not where I thought it was and needing one by 9am tomorrow. And remembering there was a retail park less than 2 miles from where I was when I realised.
Still, it was a refreshingly pleasant experience. Actually much quicker and more pleasant than wading throufg the myriad possibilities and sponsored products and possibly-dodgy Chinese companies on Amazon, and you cpuld see the product before leaving the store. Thus is the future, my friends. Amazon was a fad.

DavidL · April 2023

Fairliered said:

Omnium said:

Chris said:

WillG said:
... niqab-wearing ...
Now, just imagine the reaction if you'd expressed concern about bringing people into the country wearing yarmulkas ...
It's baseball caps that I'd like to see outlawed.
A baseball cap is an amazing thing. When someone wears one it sucks the intelligence out of their brain.

I don't think I have ever worn one. Probably just as well, all things considered.

TheScreamingEagles · April 2023

DavidL said:

Fairliered said:

Omnium said:

Chris said:

WillG said:
... niqab-wearing ...
Now, just imagine the reaction if you'd expressed concern about bringing people into the country wearing yarmulkas ...
It's baseball caps that I'd like to see outlawed.
A baseball cap is an amazing thing. When someone wears one it sucks the intelligence out of their brain.
I don't think I have ever worn one. Probably just as well, all things considered.

I was anti baseball cap until this man came into my life.

another_richard · April 2023

Fairliered said:

Omnium said:

Chris said:

WillG said:
... niqab-wearing ...
Now, just imagine the reaction if you'd expressed concern about bringing people into the country wearing yarmulkas ...
It's baseball caps that I'd like to see outlawed.
A baseball cap is an amazing thing. When someone wears one it sucks the intelligence out of their brain.

You can see when the process is compete by the baseball cap being worn backwards.

TheScreamingEagles · April 2023

Theweb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
By my reckoning, Dirty Leeds have conceded 23 Premier League goals this April.

#GoingDown
They have an awful runin, man city, tottenham and newcastle.

Southampton, Dirty Leeds, and Forest are my bets to go down.

Nigelb · April 2023

Ukraine signed new contracts with drone manufacturer Baykar

"I won't tell you the details, but I can assure you that these contracts provide our country with export revenues and new-generation weapons" - Strategic Industries Minister Oleh Kamyshev
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1652652771898961921

DavidL · April 2023

Man Utd have taken 63 points off 32 games. There was a time when averaging over 2 pts a game made you odds on for the title but no longer. The very concerning, indeed remarkable, thing is, however, that they have achieved this with a positive goal difference of only +10. Absolutely miles behind the 3 teams in front of them. Part of this, of course, is the consequence of that terrible hammering but they simply do not score anything like enough goals. Haaland has scored more goals for City this year than United have scored in the league.

This has several negative aspects. Games that should have been won, like Spurs last week, slip into draws. Teams aren't scared of Utd the way they are of City, Arsenal and, increasingly, Newcastle. They are more up for having a go rather than thinking a 2-0 defeat is rather getting away with it. Is Kane the answer to this? Not sure.

bigjohnowls · April 2023

On Topic

SKS is currently in negative territory even compared to "the worst leader ever"

LE2021 Net loss of 327 Councillors (-8 Councils)

LE2022 Net Gain of 108 Councillors (+ 5 Councils)

Total SKS vs Jezza LEs Net loss 219 Councillors (-3 Councils)

Luckyguy1983 · April 2023

ping said:
Lol

Liz Truss nicked the bathrobes from Chevening;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65441189

This is an interesting story, because it's deeply vindictive, but at the same time quite sloppy and stupid - at least part of the 'bill' seems to be for entertaining Simon Case and other members of the Cabinet Office, who *cannot* have been there for the 'party political reasons' justifying the cost being funded by Truss as an individual. In a way, both its vindictiveness and its stupidity are quite emblematic of the Sunak Government.

Dialup · April 2023

bigjohnowls said:
On Topic

SKS is currently in negative territory even compared to "the worst leader ever"

LE2021 Net loss of 327 Councillors (-8 Councils)

LE2022 Net Gain of 108 Councillors (+ 5 Councils)

Total SKS vs Jezza LEs Net loss 219 Councillors (-3 Councils)

Jeremy Corbyn lost two general elections in a row.

Dialup · April 2023

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:
This is presumably based on their poll earlier in the week? It wasn't a good one for the Conservatives, that's for sure.
No, different poll.

YouGov interviewed over 6,004 British adults between 21 and 28 April 2023 about the upcoming elections, and used Multilevel Regression and Post-Stratification (MRP) to model the estimated vote outcomes. MRP models first estimate the relationship between a wide variety of characteristics about people and their opinions – in this case, beliefs about their local areas – in what is called a ‘multilevel model’, which allows us to account for specific area (in this case, council) level effects as well as background information about respondents themselves. MRP then uses data at the local level to predict outcomes based on the concentration of various different types of people who live there.

The model assigns each type of person a probability of voting for each party at the local election (this is the ‘post-stratification’ component), and then estimates the area-level distributions using information about how many of those specific types of voters live in each area. In this instance, 1000 draws from the posterior distribution of the multilevel model were used to predict the council-level probabilities, which ran for 10,000 iterations across four parallel chains. MRP has been successfully used to predict the outcomes of both the 2017 and 2019 UK general elections.
So, 2 bad polls. Hmm...
Smallest Labour lead in 2023 is 10%.

Quite a few bad polls for the Tories in 2023.

As I said earlier, we're very much at "here is how the Tories can still win" despite being at best 10 points behind. This has a very GE19 feel to it.

DavidL · April 2023

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

Fairliered said:

Omnium said:

Chris said:

WillG said:
... niqab-wearing ...
Now, just imagine the reaction if you'd expressed concern about bringing people into the country wearing yarmulkas ...
It's baseball caps that I'd like to see outlawed.
A baseball cap is an amazing thing. When someone wears one it sucks the intelligence out of their brain.
I don't think I have ever worn one. Probably just as well, all things considered.
I was anti baseball cap until this man came into my life.

Just think how good he would have been without a cap.

Malmesbury · April 2023

A

Cookie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cookie said:

Scott_xP said:

Cookie said:
And less than 10 minutes from deciding to but the product to standing here with it in my hand. Slightly surprised to find these places still exist.
These places? You mean, shops ?
Well, specifically Argos. I would have thought the internet would render Argos entirely superfluous. But here it still is, around 25 years after by first Amazon order. Hooray for inertia.
Argos exists for two primary reasons

1) People who aren't internet savvy/or need something that day

2) The Sainsbury's merger is very much keeping them alive.

The Argos stores are getting merged into Sainsbury's stores, I'd expect the Argos brand to disappear as it is fully integrated into Sainsbury's.
For me, it was the discovery that my Thermos Flask is not where I thought it was and needing one by 9am tomorrow. And remembering there was a retail park less than 2 miles from where I was when I realised.
Still, it was a refreshingly pleasant experience. Actually much quicker and more pleasant than wading throufg the myriad possibilities and sponsored products and possibly-dodgy Chinese companies on Amazon, and you cpuld see the product before leaving the store. Thus is the future, my friends. Amazon was a fad.

It’s worth checking Amazon vs Argos prices if you have an Argos handy, for branded stuff.

Malmesbury · April 2023

DavidL said:

Fairliered said:

Omnium said:

Chris said:

WillG said:
... niqab-wearing ...
Now, just imagine the reaction if you'd expressed concern about bringing people into the country wearing yarmulkas ...
It's baseball caps that I'd like to see outlawed.
A baseball cap is an amazing thing. When someone wears one it sucks the intelligence out of their brain.
I don't think I have ever worn one. Probably just as well, all things considered.

They are quite useful for actual sports. For example, I use one to keep rain off my glasses when rowing.

bigjohnowls · April 2023

Dialup said:

bigjohnowls said:
On Topic

SKS is currently in negative territory even compared to "the worst leader ever"

LE2021 Net loss of 327 Councillors (-8 Councils)

LE2022 Net Gain of 108 Councillors (+ 5 Councils)

Total SKS vs Jezza LEs Net loss 219 Councillors (-3 Councils)
Jeremy Corbyn lost two general elections in a row.

In one of those he had the biggest swing to Labour since WW2 and forced the Tories into a Coalition despite his own Party trying to lose it by diverting monies away from winnable Marginals

Cookie · April 2023

DavidL said:
Man Utd have taken 63 points off 32 games. There was a time when averaging over 2 pts a game made you odds on for the title but no longer. The very concerning, indeed remarkable, thing is, however, that they have achieved this with a positive goal difference of only +10. Absolutely miles behind the 3 teams in front of them. Part of this, of course, is the consequence of that terrible hammering but they simply do not score anything like enough goals. Haaland has scored more goals for City this year than United have scored in the league.

This has several negative aspects. Games that should have been won, like Spurs last week, slip into draws. Teams aren't scared of Utd the way they are of City, Arsenal and, increasingly, Newcastle. They are more up for having a go rather than thinking a 2-0 defeat is rather getting away with it. Is Kane the answer to this? Not sure.

They had an absolutely dreadful start to the season. ISTR @kinabalu got rather good odds of them achieving a top four place.
Their goal difference is partly down to a handful of right hammerings. When they lose, they lose good and hard.

DavidL · April 2023

Malmesbury said:

DavidL said:

Fairliered said:

Omnium said:

Chris said:

WillG said:
... niqab-wearing ...
Now, just imagine the reaction if you'd expressed concern about bringing people into the country wearing yarmulkas ...
It's baseball caps that I'd like to see outlawed.
A baseball cap is an amazing thing. When someone wears one it sucks the intelligence out of their brain.
I don't think I have ever worn one. Probably just as well, all things considered.
They are quite useful for actual sports. For example, I use one to keep rain off my glasses when rowing.

OTOH, rowing in the rain does seem to support the original premise.

DavidL · April 2023

Cookie said:

DavidL said:
Man Utd have taken 63 points off 32 games. There was a time when averaging over 2 pts a game made you odds on for the title but no longer. The very concerning, indeed remarkable, thing is, however, that they have achieved this with a positive goal difference of only +10. Absolutely miles behind the 3 teams in front of them. Part of this, of course, is the consequence of that terrible hammering but they simply do not score anything like enough goals. Haaland has scored more goals for City this year than United have scored in the league.

This has several negative aspects. Games that should have been won, like Spurs last week, slip into draws. Teams aren't scared of Utd the way they are of City, Arsenal and, increasingly, Newcastle. They are more up for having a go rather than thinking a 2-0 defeat is rather getting away with it. Is Kane the answer to this? Not sure.
They had an absolutely dreadful start to the season. ISTR @kinabalu got rather good odds of them achieving a top four place.
Their goal difference is partly down to a handful of right hammerings. When they lose, they lose good and hard.

But they have only scored 49 goals in 32 games, 1.5 a game. It is at least 30 too few to be challengers for the league.

Cookie · April 2023

Malmesbury said:

DavidL said:

Fairliered said:

Omnium said:

Chris said:

WillG said:
... niqab-wearing ...
Now, just imagine the reaction if you'd expressed concern about bringing people into the country wearing yarmulkas ...
It's baseball caps that I'd like to see outlawed.
A baseball cap is an amazing thing. When someone wears one it sucks the intelligence out of their brain.
I don't think I have ever worn one. Probably just as well, all things considered.
They are quite useful for actual sports. For example, I use one to keep rain off my glasses when rowing.

If you can find one which fits your headshape (far from a given with my massive head) they do a decent job of keeping summer sun off a scalp not as shielded by hair as it once was, and in my case look less preposterous in doing so than most other hats.

kinabalu · April 2023

Cookie said:
Thread has moved on without me...
In a bit of a flashback to the 1980s, I'm currently in an Argos buying a thermos flask. It's terribly exciting - as if Amazon was a real life store. And less than 10 minutes from deciding to but the product to standing here with it in my hand. Slightly surprised to find these places still exist.

I'm now celebrating my purchase with a take away coffee from costa, which is, it turns out, cash only. Maybe this really is the 80s.

Anabobazina effectively banned from there then.

Omnium · April 2023

Malmesbury said:

DavidL said:

Fairliered said:

Omnium said:

Chris said:

WillG said:
... niqab-wearing ...
Now, just imagine the reaction if you'd expressed concern about bringing people into the country wearing yarmulkas ...
It's baseball caps that I'd like to see outlawed.
A baseball cap is an amazing thing. When someone wears one it sucks the intelligence out of their brain.
I don't think I have ever worn one. Probably just as well, all things considered.
They are quite useful for actual sports. For example, I use one to keep rain off my glasses when rowing.

Of limited utility as you're going backwards perhaps?

TimS · April 2023

KK now leading Erdogan in first round Turkish polls:

https://twitter.com/humeyra_pamuk/status/1652682379134132226?s=46

Logic suggests Erdogan will make it though, one way or another.

Fairliered · April 2023

DavidL said:

Fairliered said:

Omnium said:

Chris said:

WillG said:
... niqab-wearing ...
Now, just imagine the reaction if you'd expressed concern about bringing people into the country wearing yarmulkas ...
It's baseball caps that I'd like to see outlawed.
A baseball cap is an amazing thing. When someone wears one it sucks the intelligence out of their brain.
I don't think I have ever worn one. Probably just as well, all things considered.

You have just gone up in my estimation.

kinabalu · April 2023

Cookie said:

DavidL said:
Man Utd have taken 63 points off 32 games. There was a time when averaging over 2 pts a game made you odds on for the title but no longer. The very concerning, indeed remarkable, thing is, however, that they have achieved this with a positive goal difference of only +10. Absolutely miles behind the 3 teams in front of them. Part of this, of course, is the consequence of that terrible hammering but they simply do not score anything like enough goals. Haaland has scored more goals for City this year than United have scored in the league.

This has several negative aspects. Games that should have been won, like Spurs last week, slip into draws. Teams aren't scared of Utd the way they are of City, Arsenal and, increasingly, Newcastle. They are more up for having a go rather than thinking a 2-0 defeat is rather getting away with it. Is Kane the answer to this? Not sure.
They had an absolutely dreadful start to the season. ISTR @kinabalu got rather good odds of them achieving a top four place.
Their goal difference is partly down to a handful of right hammerings. When they lose, they lose good and hard.

Yes good recall and thanks for the mention. That was a nice one. The 'bet against frenzied overreaction' technique is a fav of mine.

Big_G_NorthWales · April 2023

DavidL said:
Man Utd have taken 63 points off 32 games. There was a time when averaging over 2 pts a game made you odds on for the title but no longer. The very concerning, indeed remarkable, thing is, however, that they have achieved this with a positive goal difference of only +10. Absolutely miles behind the 3 teams in front of them. Part of this, of course, is the consequence of that terrible hammering but they simply do not score anything like enough goals. Haaland has scored more goals for City this year than United have scored in the league.

This has several negative aspects. Games that should have been won, like Spurs last week, slip into draws. Teams aren't scared of Utd the way they are of City, Arsenal and, increasingly, Newcastle. They are more up for having a go rather than thinking a 2-0 defeat is rather getting away with it. Is Kane the answer to this? Not sure.

Good post

Carnyx · April 2023

https://www.thenational.scot/news/23491345.john-curtice-support-royals-all-time-low-ahead-coronation/?ref=ebbn

'SUPPORT for the royal family is at an “all time low”, Professor John Curtice has said.

The polling expert’s assessment comes just one week ahead of King Charles’s coronation, which hit the headlines on Sunday after a call was put out for millions to give a “great cry” of allegiance during the ceremony.

Speaking to GB News, Curtice said that the data was increasingly suggesting that younger generations were moving away from supporting the royals.

“Support for them is now at an all time low and frankly it declined during the Queen Elizabeth era,” Curtice said.'

Hmm. I don't think demands for a loyalty oath will help.

Nigelb · April 2023

Fairliered said:

Omnium said:

Chris said:

WillG said:
... niqab-wearing ...
Now, just imagine the reaction if you'd expressed concern about bringing people into the country wearing yarmulkas ...
It's baseball caps that I'd like to see outlawed.
A baseball cap is an amazing thing. When someone wears one it sucks the intelligence out of their brain.

Yes, poor old William Hague was never the same.

Carnyx · April 2023

Cookie said:

Malmesbury said:

DavidL said:

Fairliered said:

Omnium said:

Chris said:

WillG said:
... niqab-wearing ...
Now, just imagine the reaction if you'd expressed concern about bringing people into the country wearing yarmulkas ...
It's baseball caps that I'd like to see outlawed.
A baseball cap is an amazing thing. When someone wears one it sucks the intelligence out of their brain.
I don't think I have ever worn one. Probably just as well, all things considered.
They are quite useful for actual sports. For example, I use one to keep rain off my glasses when rowing.
If you can find one which fits your headshape (far from a given with my massive head) they do a decent job of keeping summer sun off a scalp not as shielded by hair as it once was, and in my case look less preposterous in doing so than most other hats.

Tilley hats do the trick. Not as Croc Dundee as some.

Big_G_NorthWales · April 2023

Luckyguy1983 said:

ping said:
Lol

Liz Truss nicked the bathrobes from Chevening;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65441189
This is an interesting story, because it's deeply vindictive, but at the same time quite sloppy and stupid - at least part of the 'bill' seems to be for entertaining Simon Case and other members of the Cabinet Office, who *cannot* have been there for the 'party political reasons' justifying the cost being funded by Truss as an individual. In a way, both its vindictiveness and its stupidity are quite emblematic of the Sunak Government.

Truss was a shocker and this is just more evidence of perceived entitlement

Big_G_NorthWales · April 2023

Liverpool 1 up v Spurs

Now 2 up

Sandpit · April 2023

Spurs being Spursy as usual.

Carnyx · April 2023

Luckyguy1983 said:

ping said:
Lol

Liz Truss nicked the bathrobes from Chevening;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65441189
This is an interesting story, because it's deeply vindictive, but at the same time quite sloppy and stupid - at least part of the 'bill' seems to be for entertaining Simon Case and other members of the Cabinet Office, who *cannot* have been there for the 'party political reasons' justifying the cost being funded by Truss as an individual. In a way, both its vindictiveness and its stupidity are quite emblematic of the Sunak Government.

I can't make sense of this, which comes from Ms Truss' side itself. It seems to be self-contradictory. What am I missing?

'A spokesman for Ms Truss said: "Liz always paid for the costs of her personal guests at Chevening.

"The latest invoice contains a mixture of costs for her personally and costs for official government business with civil servants including [Cabinet Secretary] Simon Case and senior officials from other departments who met at Chevening during the transition preparations.

"The latter constitutes the majority of the bill. It would be inappropriate for her to pay the costs for officials as it would have breached the Civil Service Code for civil servants to accept hospitality during the leadership campaign. She has therefore asked for this to be billed separately."'

ydoethur · April 2023

Theweb said:

Nigelb said:

Fairliered said:

Omnium said:

Chris said:

WillG said:
... niqab-wearing ...
Now, just imagine the reaction if you'd expressed concern about bringing people into the country wearing yarmulkas ...
It's baseball caps that I'd like to see outlawed.
A baseball cap is an amazing thing. When someone wears one it sucks the intelligence out of their brain.
Yes, poor old William Hague was never the same.
Trump wears them when its raining.

ONly for golden showers.

Omnium · April 2023

Carnyx said:

Cookie said:

Malmesbury said:

DavidL said:

Fairliered said:

Omnium said:

Chris said:

WillG said:
... niqab-wearing ...
Now, just imagine the reaction if you'd expressed concern about bringing people into the country wearing yarmulkas ...
It's baseball caps that I'd like to see outlawed.
A baseball cap is an amazing thing. When someone wears one it sucks the intelligence out of their brain.
I don't think I have ever worn one. Probably just as well, all things considered.
They are quite useful for actual sports. For example, I use one to keep rain off my glasses when rowing.
If you can find one which fits your headshape (far from a given with my massive head) they do a decent job of keeping summer sun off a scalp not as shielded by hair as it once was, and in my case look less preposterous in doing so than most other hats.
Tilley hats do the trick. Not as Croc Dundee as some.

Tilley hats are great. Their only downside is that you will never have sex ever again once you've been seen wearing one.

eek · April 2023

Got to say that the Tory Darlington campaign doesn't seem to be going well.

Saying that a Labour council would watch the money spent on Teesside Airport is not likely to result in people voting for the Tory party when most people don't use the airport.

TheScreamingEagles · April 2023

Carnyx said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

ping said:
Lol

Liz Truss nicked the bathrobes from Chevening;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65441189
This is an interesting story, because it's deeply vindictive, but at the same time quite sloppy and stupid - at least part of the 'bill' seems to be for entertaining Simon Case and other members of the Cabinet Office, who *cannot* have been there for the 'party political reasons' justifying the cost being funded by Truss as an individual. In a way, both its vindictiveness and its stupidity are quite emblematic of the Sunak Government.
I can't make sense of this, which comes from Ms Truss' side itself. It seems to be self-contradictory. What am I missing?

'A spokesman for Ms Truss said: "Liz always paid for the costs of her personal guests at Chevening.

"The latest invoice contains a mixture of costs for her personally and costs for official government business with civil servants including [Cabinet Secretary] Simon Case and senior officials from other departments who met at Chevening during the transition preparations.

"The latter constitutes the majority of the bill. It would be inappropriate for her to pay the costs for officials as it would have breached the Civil Service Code for civil servants to accept hospitality during the leadership campaign. She has therefore asked for this to be billed separately."'

I suspect what happened is she held a transition meeting in August which had two parts to it.

1) A political element with fellow MPs and aides

and

2) A second part where civil servants turned up

And both parts have been allocated to part 1.

Chevening is a lovely place, if I was PM I'd ditch Downing Street and move the government to Chevening.

TheScreamingEagles · April 2023

Sandpit said:
Spurs being Spursy as usual.

No, the term is Arsenalsy.

RochdalePioneers · April 2023

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cookie said:

Scott_xP said:

Cookie said:
And less than 10 minutes from deciding to but the product to standing here with it in my hand. Slightly surprised to find these places still exist.
These places? You mean, shops ?
Well, specifically Argos. I would have thought the internet would render Argos entirely superfluous. But here it still is, around 25 years after by first Amazon order. Hooray for inertia.
Argos exists for two primary reasons

1) People who aren't internet savvy/or need something that day

2) The Sainsbury's merger is very much keeping them alive.

The Argos stores are getting merged into Sainsbury's stores, I'd expect the Argos brand to disappear as it is fully integrated into Sainsbury's.

Argos? Pah. Mr Steven Wilson sings about the proper catalogue store:

"Catalogue / Preserve / Amass / Index"

rcs1000 · April 2023

WillG said:

carnforth said:

WillG said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Leon said:

Theweb said:

Leon said:
I’d also be interested in seeing the polling data that shows the Brits are AOK with net migration of ONE MILLION PEOPLE a year

I don’t believe it exists, it’s a load of bollocks. Poll after poll shows that Brits want minimal or even zero net migration. They can see the pressure on the NHS, they can see the shit in our rivers as our system struggles to cope with a population gone from around 58m to 68m in 25 years, largely through immigration

1m a year means we go from 68 to 78 million in another decade, possibly overtaking Germany as the most populous European country with less than half the land. We will have to build 1m homes a year, which we can never do, where do they all go? Do we have any countryside left?

PBers do talk an awful lot of virtue signaling shite on this subject. 1m a year, yeah, no biggie

The polls might show that but underneath the brits really arent that bothered. They like to spout on this subject but it aint serious. If it was far right parties would be rising which aint happening.
That vote for Brexit clearly escaped your attention, then
Brexit wasn't about immigration. Leave voters are a tolerant and welcoming folk. Indeed it was to increase immigration from other parts of the globe - thus broadening diversity and eschewing the white, euro-centric immigration that EU membership tended to impose - that, after the reclamation of sovereignty, was the prime motivation behind their decision. This has been explained on these threads time and time again.
Yes, the purpose was to replace unskilled migration from the EU with high skilled migration from the rest of the world. The problem is that it is low skilled migration that has taken off.
The Shortage Occupation List contains "graphic designer" at a salary of £18800, a job which can often be done remotely, for example. Perhaps there is a good reason for its inclusion, but I would love to know what it is....
Any "artist" earning £16800 a year qualifies.

Not many artist's earn £16,800 a year! Most work bars to make ends meet.

Big_G_NorthWales · April 2023

Penalty Liverpool

Scored- 3 - 0 after 15 mins

Sandpit · April 2023

Mo Salah!

ydoethur · April 2023

No. Shit. Sherlocks.

Sudden mechanical failure likely cause of Orkney ferry grounding

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-65441218

rcs1000 · April 2023

WillG said:

WillG said:

carnforth said:

WillG said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Leon said:

Theweb said:

Leon said:
I’d also be interested in seeing the polling data that shows the Brits are AOK with net migration of ONE MILLION PEOPLE a year

I don’t believe it exists, it’s a load of bollocks. Poll after poll shows that Brits want minimal or even zero net migration. They can see the pressure on the NHS, they can see the shit in our rivers as our system struggles to cope with a population gone from around 58m to 68m in 25 years, largely through immigration

1m a year means we go from 68 to 78 million in another decade, possibly overtaking Germany as the most populous European country with less than half the land. We will have to build 1m homes a year, which we can never do, where do they all go? Do we have any countryside left?

PBers do talk an awful lot of virtue signaling shite on this subject. 1m a year, yeah, no biggie

The polls might show that but underneath the brits really arent that bothered. They like to spout on this subject but it aint serious. If it was far right parties would be rising which aint happening.
That vote for Brexit clearly escaped your attention, then
Brexit wasn't about immigration. Leave voters are a tolerant and welcoming folk. Indeed it was to increase immigration from other parts of the globe - thus broadening diversity and eschewing the white, euro-centric immigration that EU membership tended to impose - that, after the reclamation of sovereignty, was the prime motivation behind their decision. This has been explained on these threads time and time again.
Yes, the purpose was to replace unskilled migration from the EU with high skilled migration from the rest of the world. The problem is that it is low skilled migration that has taken off.
The Shortage Occupation List contains "graphic designer" at a salary of £18800, a job which can often be done remotely, for example. Perhaps there is a good reason for its inclusion, but I would love to know what it is....
Any "artist" earning £16800 a year qualifies.
And the Migration Advisory Committee wants plasterers and joiners added. It is ridiculous.

And nobody talks about family migration, where you can bring in a teenage, niqab-wearing, arranged bride, as long as you earn 19k a year from your Deliveroo job.

You should talk to @Sandpit. He is a British citizen, earning a multiple of the average wage, in Dubai, with a Ukrainian wife. She cannot come to the UK with him.

Malmesbury · April 2023

DavidL said:

Malmesbury said:

DavidL said:

Fairliered said:

Omnium said:

Chris said:

WillG said:
... niqab-wearing ...
Now, just imagine the reaction if you'd expressed concern about bringing people into the country wearing yarmulkas ...
It's baseball caps that I'd like to see outlawed.
A baseball cap is an amazing thing. When someone wears one it sucks the intelligence out of their brain.
I don't think I have ever worn one. Probably just as well, all things considered.
They are quite useful for actual sports. For example, I use one to keep rain off my glasses when rowing.
OTOH, rowing in the rain does seem to support the original premise.

Rowing only when the sun is shining has a small problem….

Sandpit · April 2023

I just arrived for my week in Istanbul.
Somehow managed to find this place.

rcs1000 · April 2023

bigjohnowls said:
On Topic

SKS is currently in negative territory even compared to "the worst leader ever"

LE2021 Net loss of 327 Councillors (-8 Councils)

LE2022 Net Gain of 108 Councillors (+ 5 Councils)

Total SKS vs Jezza LEs Net loss 219 Councillors (-3 Councils)

So, are you saying that if SKS gains 220 Councillors on Thursday, you will regard him as a more successful leader than Corbyn?

squareroot2 · April 2023

On thread. This is hardly surprising.

Sandpit · April 2023

Theweb said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Penalty Liverpool

Scored- 3 - 0 after 15 mins
Im turning the game off now.

Spurs fans at Anfield, who presumably spent several hours getting there, are leaving already!

bondegezou · April 2023

I failed to notice the new thread. Doh!

From previous thread….

DavidL said:

carnforth said:

DavidL said:

FeersumEnjineeya said:

DavidL said:

Leon said:

TOPPING said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Well

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/britains-legal-migration-numbers-matter-more-than-small-boats-cztbsdhbv
That is good news.
For you it is Richard and that is to your credit imo.

Problem is the fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists you teamed up with won't be so thrilled.
Do you honestly think that net migration of 700,000 a year - or more - year after year - is hunky dory? No problemo? You don’t ever look at, say, Sweden and think “Ooops”?

It’s simply insane
What I think is that if we are really sucking in anything like 700k to fill the gaps in our labour markets then our economy is doing better than the official statistics are showing. Anything like that number suggests that the UK jobs machine is back at near full throttle.

And the answer to your more precise question is that it depends upon what the net figures are and who they are. If we are losing lots of doctors to Australasia but filling gaps in our care sector that is not going to do a lot for our average productivity.
Isn't a fair chunk of it student bounce-back after Covid?
As @RochdalePioneers rightly says we don't know. Probably. And that will lead to issues when their student visas expire and they want to stay. But then some of them may have been taught something useful.
Students can stay and work for two years after their course ends. This was reduced to four months at some point, but it is back to two years. After two years, they will then need a job and employer who qualifies for a work visa to continue.
IANAE on this but according to my friends who do immigration work overstaying students who haven't got the requisite work visa is, at least in Scotland, a much, much bigger issue than boat people. It may be different in the south of England.

Visa overstayers has always been a much bigger source of illegal immigration than boat people. It’s the same in the US, way more visa overstayers than people coming over the Mexican border. But visa overstayers (a) show that the problem is enforcement, so lies at the feet of the Home Office, and (b) don’t have the same fear factor as talk of an “invasion” does.

Omnium · April 2023

squareroot2 said:
On thread. This is hardly surprising.

I think that's a great choice as a pornstar name Ms Surprising. I'm not sure you're supposed to advertise here though.

eek · April 2023

Sandpit said:
I just arrived for my week in Istanbul.
Somehow managed to find this place.

Taksim square I take it - not been there since they added the Mosque.

Carnyx · April 2023

Omnium said:

Carnyx said:

Cookie said:

Malmesbury said:

DavidL said:

Fairliered said:

Omnium said:

Chris said:

WillG said:
... niqab-wearing ...
Now, just imagine the reaction if you'd expressed concern about bringing people into the country wearing yarmulkas ...
It's baseball caps that I'd like to see outlawed.
A baseball cap is an amazing thing. When someone wears one it sucks the intelligence out of their brain.
I don't think I have ever worn one. Probably just as well, all things considered.
They are quite useful for actual sports. For example, I use one to keep rain off my glasses when rowing.
If you can find one which fits your headshape (far from a given with my massive head) they do a decent job of keeping summer sun off a scalp not as shielded by hair as it once was, and in my case look less preposterous in doing so than most other hats.
Tilley hats do the trick. Not as Croc Dundee as some.
Tilley hats are great. Their only downside is that you will never have sex ever again once you've been seen wearing one.

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2023/apr/29/robbie-williams-sex-marriage-tangerine-relationships

"If Robbie Williams has given up on sex in marriage, what hope do any of us have?"

Theuniondivvie · April 2023

Carnyx said:

Cookie said:

Malmesbury said:

DavidL said:

Fairliered said:

Omnium said:

Chris said:

WillG said:
... niqab-wearing ...
Now, just imagine the reaction if you'd expressed concern about bringing people into the country wearing yarmulkas ...
It's baseball caps that I'd like to see outlawed.
A baseball cap is an amazing thing. When someone wears one it sucks the intelligence out of their brain.
I don't think I have ever worn one. Probably just as well, all things considered.
They are quite useful for actual sports. For example, I use one to keep rain off my glasses when rowing.
If you can find one which fits your headshape (far from a given with my massive head) they do a decent job of keeping summer sun off a scalp not as shielded by hair as it once was, and in my case look less preposterous in doing so than most other hats.
Tilley hats do the trick. Not as Croc Dundee as some.

I’ve had an unaccountable urge to buy one of these. Probably not the best time to be sporting old Red Army kit.

rcs1000 · April 2023

Cookie said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cookie said:

Scott_xP said:

Cookie said:
And less than 10 minutes from deciding to but the product to standing here with it in my hand. Slightly surprised to find these places still exist.
These places? You mean, shops ?
Well, specifically Argos. I would have thought the internet would render Argos entirely superfluous. But here it still is, around 25 years after by first Amazon order. Hooray for inertia.
Argos exists for two primary reasons

1) People who aren't internet savvy/or need something that day

2) The Sainsbury's merger is very much keeping them alive.

The Argos stores are getting merged into Sainsbury's stores, I'd expect the Argos brand to disappear as it is fully integrated into Sainsbury's.
For me, it was the discovery that my Thermos Flask is not where I thought it was and needing one by 9am tomorrow. And remembering there was a retail park less than 2 miles from where I was when I realised.
Still, it was a refreshingly pleasant experience. Actually much quicker and more pleasant than wading throufg the myriad possibilities and sponsored products and possibly-dodgy Chinese companies on Amazon, and you cpuld see the product before leaving the store. Thus is the future, my friends. Amazon was a fad.

I don't shop in Argos often, but when I do am always pleasantly surprised.

They fill a niche between Amazon and traditional retail shopping.

Carnyx · April 2023

TheScreamingEagles said:

Carnyx said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

ping said:
Lol

Liz Truss nicked the bathrobes from Chevening;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65441189
This is an interesting story, because it's deeply vindictive, but at the same time quite sloppy and stupid - at least part of the 'bill' seems to be for entertaining Simon Case and other members of the Cabinet Office, who *cannot* have been there for the 'party political reasons' justifying the cost being funded by Truss as an individual. In a way, both its vindictiveness and its stupidity are quite emblematic of the Sunak Government.
I can't make sense of this, which comes from Ms Truss' side itself. It seems to be self-contradictory. What am I missing?

'A spokesman for Ms Truss said: "Liz always paid for the costs of her personal guests at Chevening.

"The latest invoice contains a mixture of costs for her personally and costs for official government business with civil servants including [Cabinet Secretary] Simon Case and senior officials from other departments who met at Chevening during the transition preparations.

"The latter constitutes the majority of the bill. It would be inappropriate for her to pay the costs for officials as it would have breached the Civil Service Code for civil servants to accept hospitality during the leadership campaign. She has therefore asked for this to be billed separately."'
I suspect what happened is she held a transition meeting in August which had two parts to it.

1) A political element with fellow MPs and aides

and

2) A second part where civil servants turned up

And both parts have been allocated to part 1.

Chevening is a lovely place, if I was PM I'd ditch Downing Street and move the government to Chevening.

Thanks for that. If so then the bill seems more logical.

viewcode · April 2023

MoonRabbit said:
...YouGov interviewed 6,004 British adults between 21 and 28 April. Not a huge sample to back up such precision predictions, or is it?...

Good question.

DEEP BREATH

The saying goes "you don't have to drink all the soup to know if it's salty"

AND

Polling techniques that rely on the central limit theorem have a well-discussed formula for the margin of error and six thousand is more than enough

BUT

Poll response in the modern day is so poor it makes poll-response self-selective and nonrandom and makes that formula inapplicable

AND

MRP is a modelling technique that isn't theoretically underpinned by the CLT - it's just a big data technique - and so that formula doesn't apply anyway

SO

We don't know.

ALSO

Following the reforms of the past few years the polling companies committed to include a statement on what the margin of error should be...but YouGov haven't in this poll

Are we happy now?

Casino_Royale · April 2023

Carnyx said:
https://www.thenational.scot/news/23491345.john-curtice-support-royals-all-time-low-ahead-coronation/?ref=ebbn

'SUPPORT for the royal family is at an “all time low”, Professor John Curtice has said.

The polling expert’s assessment comes just one week ahead of King Charles’s coronation, which hit the headlines on Sunday after a call was put out for millions to give a “great cry” of allegiance during the ceremony.

Speaking to GB News, Curtice said that the data was increasingly suggesting that younger generations were moving away from supporting the royals.

“Support for them is now at an all time low and frankly it declined during the Queen Elizabeth era,” Curtice said.'

Hmm. I don't think demands for a loyalty oath will help.

Wokery.

It's deeply fashionable now to be against Britain and any symbols of Britain on the basis that they represent "colonialism", "racism" and "slavery".

Of course, this sentiment will be funded, advocated and encouraged by our enemies in China and Russia; they are hoping that if we lose enough self-confidence we might bring it all down on top of us ourselves.

They might be right.

Pagan2 · April 2023

Carnyx said:

Cookie said:

Malmesbury said:

DavidL said:

Fairliered said:

Omnium said:

Chris said:

WillG said:
... niqab-wearing ...
Now, just imagine the reaction if you'd expressed concern about bringing people into the country wearing yarmulkas ...
It's baseball caps that I'd like to see outlawed.
A baseball cap is an amazing thing. When someone wears one it sucks the intelligence out of their brain.
I don't think I have ever worn one. Probably just as well, all things considered.
They are quite useful for actual sports. For example, I use one to keep rain off my glasses when rowing.
If you can find one which fits your headshape (far from a given with my massive head) they do a decent job of keeping summer sun off a scalp not as shielded by hair as it once was, and in my case look less preposterous in doing so than most other hats.
Tilley hats do the trick. Not as Croc Dundee as some.

I never leave the house without my top hat personally

Sandpit · April 2023

eek said:

Sandpit said:
I just arrived for my week in Istanbul.
Somehow managed to find this place.

Taksim square I take it - not been there since they added the Mosque.

Yes, just off Taksim Sq.
Lovely city, from early impressions. Beers more expensive than I was expecting, £4 a pint in this pub - but the local chain restaurant we went to for lunch it was £2.50. Have to avoid the tourist traps here.

bondegezou · April 2023

viewcode said:

MoonRabbit said:
...YouGov interviewed 6,004 British adults between 21 and 28 April. Not a huge sample to back up such precision predictions, or is it?...
Good question.

DEEP BREATH

The saying goes "you don't have to drink all the soup to know if it's salty"

AND

Polling techniques that rely on the central limit theorem have a well-discussed formula for the margin of error and six thousand is more than enough

BUT

Poll response in the modern day is so poor it makes poll-response self-selective and nonrandom and makes that formula inapplicable

AND

MRP is a modelling technique that isn't theoretically underpinned by the CLT - it's just a big data technique - and so that formula doesn't apply anyway

SO

We don't know.

ALSO

Following the reforms of the past few years the polling companies committed to include a statement on what the margin of error should be...but YouGov haven't in this poll

Are we happy now?

What goes on in MRP? Is it like propensity matching?

kinabalu · April 2023

Big_G_NorthWales said:
Penalty Liverpool

Scored- 3 - 0 after 15 mins

Spurs are on the beach, I think.

Fishing · April 2023

Fairliered said:

Omnium said:

Chris said:

WillG said:
... niqab-wearing ...
Now, just imagine the reaction if you'd expressed concern about bringing people into the country wearing yarmulkas ...
It's baseball caps that I'd like to see outlawed.
A baseball cap is an amazing thing. When someone wears one it sucks the intelligence out of their brain.

Sort of like watching reality TV.

Sandpit · April 2023

Casino_Royale said:

Carnyx said:
https://www.thenational.scot/news/23491345.john-curtice-support-royals-all-time-low-ahead-coronation/?ref=ebbn

'SUPPORT for the royal family is at an “all time low”, Professor John Curtice has said.

The polling expert’s assessment comes just one week ahead of King Charles’s coronation, which hit the headlines on Sunday after a call was put out for millions to give a “great cry” of allegiance during the ceremony.

Speaking to GB News, Curtice said that the data was increasingly suggesting that younger generations were moving away from supporting the royals.

“Support for them is now at an all time low and frankly it declined during the Queen Elizabeth era,” Curtice said.'

Hmm. I don't think demands for a loyalty oath will help.
Wokery.

It's deeply fashionable now to be against Britain and any symbols of Britain on the basis that they represent "colonialism", "racism" and "slavery".

Of course, this sentiment will be funded, advocated and encouraged by our enemies in China and Russia; they are hoping that if we lose enough self-confidence we might bring it all down on top of us ourselves.

They might be right.

Bud Light says hi. They’re getting smashed to bits in the States at the moment, after a partnership with a guy who is basically a transgender version of blackface went horribly wrong. Sales down 40% in a fortnight, and two senior managers ‘on leave’.

FF43 · April 2023

TheScreamingEagles said:

Cookie said:

Scott_xP said:

Cookie said:
And less than 10 minutes from deciding to but the product to standing here with it in my hand. Slightly surprised to find these places still exist.
These places? You mean, shops ?
Well, specifically Argos. I would have thought the internet would render Argos entirely superfluous. But here it still is, around 25 years after by first Amazon order. Hooray for inertia.
Argos exists for two primary reasons

1) People who aren't internet savvy/or need something that day

2) The Sainsbury's merger is very much keeping them alive.

The Argos stores are getting merged into Sainsbury's stores, I'd expect the Argos brand to disappear as it is fully integrated into Sainsbury's.

Argos is great. You can order something online - plenty of choice and reasonable prices - and get it delivered to your Sainsburys Local the same day.

WillG · April 2023

Chris said:

WillG said:
... niqab-wearing ...
Now, just imagine the reaction if you'd expressed concern about bringing people into the country wearing yarmulkas ...

What an immensely stupid thing to say. The yamulka isn't a symbol of oppression that has been enforced on women by dictatorial governments because they aren't allowed to show their faces in public.

kinabalu · April 2023

TheScreamingEagles said:

DavidL said:

Fairliered said:

Omnium said:

Chris said:

WillG said:
... niqab-wearing ...
Now, just imagine the reaction if you'd expressed concern about bringing people into the country wearing yarmulkas ...
It's baseball caps that I'd like to see outlawed.
A baseball cap is an amazing thing. When someone wears one it sucks the intelligence out of their brain.
I don't think I have ever worn one. Probably just as well, all things considered.
I was anti baseball cap until this man came into my life.

And same for laser eye surgery and top dollar teeth whitening?

rcs1000 · April 2023

Sandpit said:

Casino_Royale said:

Carnyx said:
https://www.thenational.scot/news/23491345.john-curtice-support-royals-all-time-low-ahead-coronation/?ref=ebbn

'SUPPORT for the royal family is at an “all time low”, Professor John Curtice has said.

The polling expert’s assessment comes just one week ahead of King Charles’s coronation, which hit the headlines on Sunday after a call was put out for millions to give a “great cry” of allegiance during the ceremony.

Speaking to GB News, Curtice said that the data was increasingly suggesting that younger generations were moving away from supporting the royals.

“Support for them is now at an all time low and frankly it declined during the Queen Elizabeth era,” Curtice said.'

Hmm. I don't think demands for a loyalty oath will help.
Wokery.

It's deeply fashionable now to be against Britain and any symbols of Britain on the basis that they represent "colonialism", "racism" and "slavery".

Of course, this sentiment will be funded, advocated and encouraged by our enemies in China and Russia; they are hoping that if we lose enough self-confidence we might bring it all down on top of us ourselves.

They might be right.
Bud Light says hi. They’re getting smashed to bits in the States at the moment, after a partnership with a guy who is basically a transgender version of blackface went horribly wrong. Sales down 40% in a fortnight, and two senior managers ‘on leave’.

The boycott of Hogwarts Legacy was also a complete failure: it is still - months after release - the third best selling full priced video game, behind only the brand new Jedi Survivor game and the new Modern Warfare game.

Capitalism works, folks.

viewcode · April 2023

bondegezou said:

viewcode said:

MoonRabbit said:
...YouGov interviewed 6,004 British adults between 21 and 28 April. Not a huge sample to back up such precision predictions, or is it?...
Good question.

DEEP BREATH

The saying goes "you don't have to drink all the soup to know if it's salty"

AND

Polling techniques that rely on the central limit theorem have a well-discussed formula for the margin of error and six thousand is more than enough

BUT

Poll response in the modern day is so poor it makes poll-response self-selective and nonrandom and makes that formula inapplicable

AND

MRP is a modelling technique that isn't theoretically underpinned by the CLT - it's just a big data technique - and so that formula doesn't apply anyway

SO

We don't know.

ALSO

Following the reforms of the past few years the polling companies committed to include a statement on what the margin of error should be...but YouGov haven't in this poll

Are we happy now?

What goes on in MRP? Is it like propensity matching?

I don't know what propensity matching is. But I do know what MRP is. It goes like this:

You have a massive online panel
You know the characteristics of the people on that panel (age, sex, loc'n, social group, etc)
You ask them some questions about who they gonna vote for
When they've answered you know the propensity to vote for X in each characteristic
You know the number of people in each voting area with those characteristics
So you match one to the other - oh, you may be right - fiddle with the propensity to vote, and - voila - you know what the votes will be in each voting area.
So you know who will win
Ish.

JohnO · April 2023

TheScreamingEagles said:

Carnyx said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

ping said:
Lol

Liz Truss nicked the bathrobes from Chevening;

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65441189
This is an interesting story, because it's deeply vindictive, but at the same time quite sloppy and stupid - at least part of the 'bill' seems to be for entertaining Simon Case and other members of the Cabinet Office, who *cannot* have been there for the 'party political reasons' justifying the cost being funded by Truss as an individual. In a way, both its vindictiveness and its stupidity are quite emblematic of the Sunak Government.
I can't make sense of this, which comes from Ms Truss' side itself. It seems to be self-contradictory. What am I missing?

'A spokesman for Ms Truss said: "Liz always paid for the costs of her personal guests at Chevening.

"The latest invoice contains a mixture of costs for her personally and costs for official government business with civil servants including [Cabinet Secretary] Simon Case and senior officials from other departments who met at Chevening during the transition preparations.

"The latter constitutes the majority of the bill. It would be inappropriate for her to pay the costs for officials as it would have breached the Civil Service Code for civil servants to accept hospitality during the leadership campaign. She has therefore asked for this to be billed separately."'
I suspect what happened is she held a transition meeting in August which had two parts to it.

1) A political element with fellow MPs and aides

and

2) A second part where civil servants turned up

And both parts have been allocated to part 1.

Chevening is a lovely place, if I was PM I'd ditch Downing Street and move the government to Chevening.

Chevening is indeed a lovely place and will always have a place in my affections, having caught the first bout of COVID there in September 2021.

rcs1000 · April 2023

viewcode said:

bondegezou said:

viewcode said:

MoonRabbit said:
...YouGov interviewed 6,004 British adults between 21 and 28 April. Not a huge sample to back up such precision predictions, or is it?...
Good question.

DEEP BREATH

The saying goes "you don't have to drink all the soup to know if it's salty"

AND

Polling techniques that rely on the central limit theorem have a well-discussed formula for the margin of error and six thousand is more than enough

BUT

Poll response in the modern day is so poor it makes poll-response self-selective and nonrandom and makes that formula inapplicable

AND

MRP is a modelling technique that isn't theoretically underpinned by the CLT - it's just a big data technique - and so that formula doesn't apply anyway

SO

We don't know.

ALSO

Following the reforms of the past few years the polling companies committed to include a statement on what the margin of error should be...but YouGov haven't in this poll

Are we happy now?

What goes on in MRP? Is it like propensity matching?
I don't know what propensity matching is. But I do know what MRP is. It goes like this:
You have a massive online panel
You know the characteristics of the people on that panel (age, sex, loc'n, social group, etc)
You ask them some questions about who they gonna vote for
When they've answered you know the propensity to vote for X in each characteristic
You know the number of people in each voting area with those characteristics
So you match one to the other - oh, you may be right - fiddle with the propensity to vote, and - voila - you know what the votes will be in each voting area.
So you know who will win
Ish.

Yep:

And the evidence is that MRP, while not perfect, is pretty good at forecasting General Election results. I would therefore take these forecasts quite seriously.

MightyAlex · April 2023

Casino_Royale said:

Carnyx said:
https://www.thenational.scot/news/23491345.john-curtice-support-royals-all-time-low-ahead-coronation/?ref=ebbn

'SUPPORT for the royal family is at an “all time low”, Professor John Curtice has said.

The polling expert’s assessment comes just one week ahead of King Charles’s coronation, which hit the headlines on Sunday after a call was put out for millions to give a “great cry” of allegiance during the ceremony.

Speaking to GB News, Curtice said that the data was increasingly suggesting that younger generations were moving away from supporting the royals.

“Support for them is now at an all time low and frankly it declined during the Queen Elizabeth era,” Curtice said.'

Hmm. I don't think demands for a loyalty oath will help.
Wokery.

It's deeply fashionable now to be against Britain and any symbols of Britain on the basis that they represent "colonialism", "racism" and "slavery".

Of course, this sentiment will be funded, advocated and encouraged by our enemies in China and Russia; they are hoping that if we lose enough self-confidence we might bring it all down on top of us ourselves.

They might be right.

An alternative view could be that Charles and co are inherited wealth personified. The vast majority of the young are pushing against entrenched and increasing wealth inequality. They are earning relatively low incomes and have little opportunity to improve their lot.

This condition has been advocated for and encouraged by the Russia funded Conservative party who have no intention for this to change.

rcs1000 · April 2023

WillG said:

Chris said:

WillG said:
... niqab-wearing ...
Now, just imagine the reaction if you'd expressed concern about bringing people into the country wearing yarmulkas ...
What an immensely stupid thing to say. The yamulka isn't a symbol of oppression that has been enforced on women by dictatorial governments because they aren't allowed to show their faces in public.

Ultra Orthodox Judaism is pretty fucked up. Maybe not as fucked up as Wahhabism, but there are more similarities than we might like to admit.

Casino_Royale · April 2023

rcs1000 said:

viewcode said:

bondegezou said:

viewcode said:

MoonRabbit said:
...YouGov interviewed 6,004 British adults between 21 and 28 April. Not a huge sample to back up such precision predictions, or is it?...
Good question.

DEEP BREATH

The saying goes "you don't have to drink all the soup to know if it's salty"

AND

Polling techniques that rely on the central limit theorem have a well-discussed formula for the margin of error and six thousand is more than enough

BUT

Poll response in the modern day is so poor it makes poll-response self-selective and nonrandom and makes that formula inapplicable

AND

MRP is a modelling technique that isn't theoretically underpinned by the CLT - it's just a big data technique - and so that formula doesn't apply anyway

SO

We don't know.

ALSO

Following the reforms of the past few years the polling companies committed to include a statement on what the margin of error should be...but YouGov haven't in this poll

Are we happy now?

What goes on in MRP? Is it like propensity matching?
I don't know what propensity matching is. But I do know what MRP is. It goes like this:
You have a massive online panel
You know the characteristics of the people on that panel (age, sex, loc'n, social group, etc)
You ask them some questions about who they gonna vote for
When they've answered you know the propensity to vote for X in each characteristic
You know the number of people in each voting area with those characteristics
So you match one to the other - oh, you may be right - fiddle with the propensity to vote, and - voila - you know what the votes will be in each voting area.
So you know who will win
Ish.
Yep:

And the evidence is that MRP, while not perfect, is pretty good at forecasting General Election results. I would therefore take these forecasts quite seriously.

But, it's actually pretty inaccurate until 1-2 weeks before a General Election.

It's base data is still a contemporary (and midterm) opinion poll.

viewcode · April 2023

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:

Casino_Royale said:

Carnyx said:
https://www.thenational.scot/news/23491345.john-curtice-support-royals-all-time-low-ahead-coronation/?ref=ebbn

'SUPPORT for the royal family is at an “all time low”, Professor John Curtice has said.

The polling expert’s assessment comes just one week ahead of King Charles’s coronation, which hit the headlines on Sunday after a call was put out for millions to give a “great cry” of allegiance during the ceremony.

Speaking to GB News, Curtice said that the data was increasingly suggesting that younger generations were moving away from supporting the royals.

“Support for them is now at an all time low and frankly it declined during the Queen Elizabeth era,” Curtice said.'

Hmm. I don't think demands for a loyalty oath will help.
Wokery.

It's deeply fashionable now to be against Britain and any symbols of Britain on the basis that they represent "colonialism", "racism" and "slavery".

Of course, this sentiment will be funded, advocated and encouraged by our enemies in China and Russia; they are hoping that if we lose enough self-confidence we might bring it all down on top of us ourselves.

They might be right.
Bud Light says hi. They’re getting smashed to bits in the States at the moment, after a partnership with a guy who is basically a transgender version of blackface went horribly wrong. Sales down 40% in a fortnight, and two senior managers ‘on leave’.
The boycott of Hogwarts Legacy was also a complete failure: it is still - months after release - the third best selling full priced video game, behind only the brand new Jedi Survivor game and the new Modern Warfare game.

Capitalism works, folks.

Interestingly - and counterintuitively - it might not have the long-term effect @Sandpit predicts

https://www.ft.com/content/3a84b28c-912a-4805-b942-13e597766a93
https://www.nytimes.com/article/bud-light-boycott.html

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