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YouGov predict major losses for the Tories on Thursday – politicalbetting.com

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  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    edited April 2023
    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    ...YouGov interviewed 6,004 British adults between 21 and 28 April. Not a huge sample to back up such precision predictions, or is it?...

    Good question.

    DEEP BREATH

    The saying goes "you don't have to drink all the soup to know if it's salty"

    AND

    Polling techniques that rely on the central limit theorem have a well-discussed formula for the margin of error and six thousand is more than enough

    BUT

    Poll response in the modern day is so poor it makes poll-response self-selective and nonrandom and makes that formula inapplicable

    AND

    MRP is a modelling technique that isn't theoretically underpinned by the CLT - it's just a big data technique - and so that formula doesn't apply anyway

    SO

    We don't know.

    ALSO

    Following the reforms of the past few years the polling companies committed to include a statement on what the margin of error should be...but YouGov haven't in this poll

    Are we happy now?




    What goes on in MRP? Is it like propensity matching?
    I don't know what propensity matching is. But I do know what MRP is. It goes like this:
    • You have a massive online panel
    • You know the characteristics of the people on that panel (age, sex, loc'n, social group, etc)
    • You ask them some questions about who they gonna vote for
    • When they've answered you know the propensity to vote for X in each characteristic
    • You know the number of people in each voting area with those characteristics
    • So you match one to the other - oh, you may be right - fiddle with the propensity to vote, and - voila - you know what the votes will be in each voting area.
    • So you know who will win
    • Ish.
    Yep:

    And the evidence is that MRP, while not perfect, is pretty good at forecasting General Election results. I would therefore take these forecasts quite seriously.
    The final YouGov MRP poll (Dec 10th) in 2019 predicted a Tory majority of 28. The actual result was an 80 seat margin. Hardly impressive.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,587
    Omnium said:

    Carnyx said:

    Cookie said:

    DavidL said:

    Omnium said:

    Chris said:

    WillG said:

    ... niqab-wearing ...

    Now, just imagine the reaction if you'd expressed concern about bringing people into the country wearing yarmulkas ...
    It's baseball caps that I'd like to see outlawed.
    A baseball cap is an amazing thing. When someone wears one it sucks the intelligence out of their brain.
    I don't think I have ever worn one. Probably just as well, all things considered.
    They are quite useful for actual sports. For example, I use one to keep rain off my glasses when rowing.
    If you can find one which fits your headshape (far from a given with my massive head) they do a decent job of keeping summer sun off a scalp not as shielded by hair as it once was, and in my case look less preposterous in doing so than most other hats.
    Tilley hats do the trick. Not as Croc Dundee as some.
    Tilley hats are great. Their only downside is that you will never have sex ever again once you've been seen wearing one.
    As a long-time wearer of Tilley hats, and whose wife wears a Tilley hat, I'd argue that's wrong. ;)

    (Although we don't wear them during sex. At least, not usually...)

    As an aside, it's amazing how many Tilley hat wearers I come across who don't realise there's a little pocket in the top, in which you can secrete all sorts of things: spare cash, condoms, etc. And there's a little brochure with a few funny stories in it. I'm on my second Tilley hat now, and am about ready for a third. They give a lifetime guarantee, but I get so much use of my hat that it feels bad to use the guarantee. I get my money's worth.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2023/04/28/yuval-noah-harari-argues-that-ai-has-hacked-the-operating-system-of-human-civilisation

    This is a good article in the economist by Yuval Noah Harari. One idea is that the regulation of AI in the west would put it at competitive advantage over other countries where AI runs amok, leading to chaos. I hadn't thought of that.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,219

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    ...YouGov interviewed 6,004 British adults between 21 and 28 April. Not a huge sample to back up such precision predictions, or is it?...

    Good question.

    DEEP BREATH

    The saying goes "you don't have to drink all the soup to know if it's salty"

    AND

    Polling techniques that rely on the central limit theorem have a well-discussed formula for the margin of error and six thousand is more than enough

    BUT

    Poll response in the modern day is so poor it makes poll-response self-selective and nonrandom and makes that formula inapplicable

    AND

    MRP is a modelling technique that isn't theoretically underpinned by the CLT - it's just a big data technique - and so that formula doesn't apply anyway

    SO

    We don't know.

    ALSO

    Following the reforms of the past few years the polling companies committed to include a statement on what the margin of error should be...but YouGov haven't in this poll

    Are we happy now?




    What goes on in MRP? Is it like propensity matching?
    I don't know what propensity matching is. But I do know what MRP is. It goes like this:
    • You have a massive online panel
    • You know the characteristics of the people on that panel (age, sex, loc'n, social group, etc)
    • You ask them some questions about who they gonna vote for
    • When they've answered you know the propensity to vote for X in each characteristic
    • You know the number of people in each voting area with those characteristics
    • So you match one to the other - oh, you may be right - fiddle with the propensity to vote, and - voila - you know what the votes will be in each voting area.
    • So you know who will win
    • Ish.
    Yep:

    And the evidence is that MRP, while not perfect, is pretty good at forecasting General Election results. I would therefore take these forecasts quite seriously.
    But, it's actually pretty inaccurate until 1-2 weeks before a General Election.

    It's base data is still a contemporary (and midterm) opinion poll.
    Though the local elections it's being used for here are much closer.

    What it may struggle with is how much of the Conservative to Indy swing from the 2019 locals unwinds.

    That could vary massively from ward to ward, in a way modelling won't pick up. However, Independent councillors who want to carry on can be blooming hard for any party to shift. The May voter strike against May may be over, but voting for a distinguished Independent can be seen as the conservative option.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,628
    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    Omnium said:

    Chris said:

    WillG said:

    ... niqab-wearing ...

    Now, just imagine the reaction if you'd expressed concern about bringing people into the country wearing yarmulkas ...
    It's baseball caps that I'd like to see outlawed.
    A baseball cap is an amazing thing. When someone wears one it sucks the intelligence out of their brain.
    I don't think I have ever worn one. Probably just as well, all things considered.
    I was anti baseball cap until this man came into my life.

    And same for laser eye surgery and top dollar teeth whitening?
    You don't need to pay top dollar for it. Hydrogen peroxide is cheap.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075
    JohnO said:

    rcs1000 said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    ...YouGov interviewed 6,004 British adults between 21 and 28 April. Not a huge sample to back up such precision predictions, or is it?...

    Good question.

    DEEP BREATH

    The saying goes "you don't have to drink all the soup to know if it's salty"

    AND

    Polling techniques that rely on the central limit theorem have a well-discussed formula for the margin of error and six thousand is more than enough

    BUT

    Poll response in the modern day is so poor it makes poll-response self-selective and nonrandom and makes that formula inapplicable

    AND

    MRP is a modelling technique that isn't theoretically underpinned by the CLT - it's just a big data technique - and so that formula doesn't apply anyway

    SO

    We don't know.

    ALSO

    Following the reforms of the past few years the polling companies committed to include a statement on what the margin of error should be...but YouGov haven't in this poll

    Are we happy now?




    What goes on in MRP? Is it like propensity matching?
    I don't know what propensity matching is. But I do know what MRP is. It goes like this:
    • You have a massive online panel
    • You know the characteristics of the people on that panel (age, sex, loc'n, social group, etc)
    • You ask them some questions about who they gonna vote for
    • When they've answered you know the propensity to vote for X in each characteristic
    • You know the number of people in each voting area with those characteristics
    • So you match one to the other - oh, you may be right - fiddle with the propensity to vote, and - voila - you know what the votes will be in each voting area.
    • So you know who will win
    • Ish.
    Yep:

    And the evidence is that MRP, while not perfect, is pretty good at forecasting General Election results. I would therefore take these forecasts quite seriously.
    The final YouGov MRP poll in 2019, predicted a Tory majority of 28. The actual result was an 80 seat margin. Hardly impressive.
    It predicted a Con majority. You got a Con majority. Whaddya want, blood?

    (plus predicting the lead is doubly erroneous, since the error is the sum-ish of the error of Con and the error of Lab)

    YouGov MRPs have been adequate for majority betting purposes in the last two UK gen elexes and the last German federal elex

    BUT

    It did not do well in the 2020 and 2016 US POTUSs

    BUT

    We aren't in the US for this elec, so that doesn't matter

    BUT

    This is a local election for local people and small turnout and individual ID will make a difference

    SO

    it's a bit uncertain... :(
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    .
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/23491345.john-curtice-support-royals-all-time-low-ahead-coronation/?ref=ebbn

    'SUPPORT for the royal family is at an “all time low”, Professor John Curtice has said.

    The polling expert’s assessment comes just one week ahead of King Charles’s coronation, which hit the headlines on Sunday after a call was put out for millions to give a “great cry” of allegiance during the ceremony.

    Speaking to GB News, Curtice said that the data was increasingly suggesting that younger generations were moving away from supporting the royals.

    “Support for them is now at an all time low and frankly it declined during the Queen Elizabeth era,” Curtice said.'

    Hmm. I don't think demands for a loyalty oath will help.

    Wokery.

    It's deeply fashionable now to be against Britain and any symbols of Britain on the basis that they represent "colonialism", "racism" and "slavery".

    Of course, this sentiment will be funded, advocated and encouraged by our enemies in China and Russia; they are hoping that if we lose enough self-confidence we might bring it all down on top of us ourselves.

    They might be right.
    Bud Light says hi. They’re getting smashed to bits in the States at the moment, after a partnership with a guy who is basically a transgender version of blackface went horribly wrong. Sales down 40% in a fortnight, and two senior managers ‘on leave’.
    The boycott of Hogwarts Legacy was also a complete failure: it is still - months after release - the third best selling full priced video game, behind only the brand new Jedi Survivor game and the new Modern Warfare game.

    Capitalism works, folks.
    Of course it was a failure. When they try and go for a Jo Rowling or a Joe Rogan, who don’t just have f.you money, they produce stuff that millions of people who don’t spend all day on Twitter actually care about, they’re doomed to failure.

    What’s more important, is to stand up for the free speech of others below that threshold. Didn’t one lady children’s author lose her publishing deal for a Tweet in support of Rowling?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,258

    Omnium said:

    Carnyx said:

    Cookie said:

    DavidL said:

    Omnium said:

    Chris said:

    WillG said:

    ... niqab-wearing ...

    Now, just imagine the reaction if you'd expressed concern about bringing people into the country wearing yarmulkas ...
    It's baseball caps that I'd like to see outlawed.
    A baseball cap is an amazing thing. When someone wears one it sucks the intelligence out of their brain.
    I don't think I have ever worn one. Probably just as well, all things considered.
    They are quite useful for actual sports. For example, I use one to keep rain off my glasses when rowing.
    If you can find one which fits your headshape (far from a given with my massive head) they do a decent job of keeping summer sun off a scalp not as shielded by hair as it once was, and in my case look less preposterous in doing so than most other hats.
    Tilley hats do the trick. Not as Croc Dundee as some.
    Tilley hats are great. Their only downside is that you will never have sex ever again once you've been seen wearing one.
    As a long-time wearer of Tilley hats, and whose wife wears a Tilley hat, I'd argue that's wrong. ;)

    (Although we don't wear them during sex. At least, not usually...)

    As an aside, it's amazing how many Tilley hat wearers I come across who don't realise there's a little pocket in the top, in which you can secrete all sorts of things: spare cash, condoms, etc. And there's a little brochure with a few funny stories in it. I'm on my second Tilley hat now, and am about ready for a third. They give a lifetime guarantee, but I get so much use of my hat that it feels bad to use the guarantee. I get my money's worth.
    They are excellent for expeditions - mine has been all over the world.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,793

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/23491345.john-curtice-support-royals-all-time-low-ahead-coronation/?ref=ebbn

    'SUPPORT for the royal family is at an “all time low”, Professor John Curtice has said.

    The polling expert’s assessment comes just one week ahead of King Charles’s coronation, which hit the headlines on Sunday after a call was put out for millions to give a “great cry” of allegiance during the ceremony.

    Speaking to GB News, Curtice said that the data was increasingly suggesting that younger generations were moving away from supporting the royals.

    “Support for them is now at an all time low and frankly it declined during the Queen Elizabeth era,” Curtice said.'

    Hmm. I don't think demands for a loyalty oath will help.

    Wokery.

    It's deeply fashionable now to be against Britain and any symbols of Britain on the basis that they represent "colonialism", "racism" and "slavery".

    Of course, this sentiment will be funded, advocated and encouraged by our enemies in China and Russia; they are hoping that if we lose enough self-confidence we might bring it all down on top of us ourselves.

    They might be right.
    An alternative view could be that Charles and co are inherited wealth personified. The vast majority of the young are pushing against entrenched and increasing wealth inequality. They are earning relatively low incomes and have little opportunity to improve their lot.

    This condition has been advocated for and encouraged by the Russia funded Conservative party who have no intention for this to change.
    Another alternative view is that it is just seen as a bit daft and faintly embarrasing. Opposition to the monarchy isn't furious, but support isn't strong either. Monarchy us a curious anachronism. It can survuve that sort of attitude as an institution, but only if it does its job well.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    edited April 2023
    So, just catching up on the F1, did Max pit a lap early in anticipation of the safety car, rather than waiting until it was actually deployed? Or was he coming in that lap anyway, and just got unlucky?
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,723
    edited April 2023
    Theweb said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/23491345.john-curtice-support-royals-all-time-low-ahead-coronation/?ref=ebbn

    'SUPPORT for the royal family is at an “all time low”, Professor John Curtice has said.

    The polling expert’s assessment comes just one week ahead of King Charles’s coronation, which hit the headlines on Sunday after a call was put out for millions to give a “great cry” of allegiance during the ceremony.

    Speaking to GB News, Curtice said that the data was increasingly suggesting that younger generations were moving away from supporting the royals.

    “Support for them is now at an all time low and frankly it declined during the Queen Elizabeth era,” Curtice said.'

    Hmm. I don't think demands for a loyalty oath will help.

    Wokery.

    It's deeply fashionable now to be against Britain and any symbols of Britain on the basis that they represent "colonialism", "racism" and "slavery".

    Of course, this sentiment will be funded, advocated and encouraged by our enemies in China and Russia; they are hoping that if we lose enough self-confidence we might bring it all down on top of us ourselves.

    They might be right.
    An alternative view could be that Charles and co are inherited wealth personified. The vast majority of the young are pushing against entrenched and increasing wealth inequality. They are earning relatively low incomes and have little opportunity to improve their lot.

    This condition has been advocated for and encouraged by the Russia funded Conservative party who have no intention for this to change.
    Charles will be a disaster as monarch.
    Pointless comment with nothing to back it up. Who are you trolling for?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,874
    edited April 2023
    Late afternoon all :)

    On another site, they are very sceptical about Labour winning a majority in Worcester.

    As I've mentioned before, the "ten to follow" places to watch (I think) are Bolton, Stockport, Walsall, Dudley, Bracknell Forest, Medway, North Lincolnshire, South Gloucestershire, West Berkshire and Windsor & Maidenhead.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    WillG said:

    WillG said:

    carnforth said:

    WillG said:

    Leon said:

    Theweb said:

    Leon said:

    I’d also be interested in seeing the polling data that shows the Brits are AOK with net migration of ONE MILLION PEOPLE a year

    I don’t believe it exists, it’s a load of bollocks. Poll after poll shows that Brits want minimal or even zero net migration. They can see the pressure on the NHS, they can see the shit in our rivers as our system struggles to cope with a population gone from around 58m to 68m in 25 years, largely through immigration

    1m a year means we go from 68 to 78 million in another decade, possibly overtaking Germany as the most populous European country with less than half the land. We will have to build 1m homes a year, which we can never do, where do they all go? Do we have any countryside left?

    PBers do talk an awful lot of virtue signaling shite on this subject. 1m a year, yeah, no biggie

    The polls might show that but underneath the brits really arent that bothered. They like to spout on this subject but it aint serious. If it was far right parties would be rising which aint happening.
    That vote for Brexit clearly escaped your attention, then
    Brexit wasn't about immigration. Leave voters are a tolerant and welcoming folk. Indeed it was to increase immigration from other parts of the globe - thus broadening diversity and eschewing the white, euro-centric immigration that EU membership tended to impose - that, after the reclamation of sovereignty, was the prime motivation behind their decision. This has been explained on these threads time and time again.
    Yes, the purpose was to replace unskilled migration from the EU with high skilled migration from the rest of the world. The problem is that it is low skilled migration that has taken off.
    The Shortage Occupation List contains "graphic designer" at a salary of £18800, a job which can often be done remotely, for example. Perhaps there is a good reason for its inclusion, but I would love to know what it is....
    Any "artist" earning £16800 a year qualifies.
    And the Migration Advisory Committee wants plasterers and joiners added. It is ridiculous.

    And nobody talks about family migration, where you can bring in a teenage, niqab-wearing, arranged bride, as long as you earn 19k a year from your Deliveroo job.
    You should talk to @Sandpit. He is a British citizen, earning a multiple of the average wage, in Dubai, with a Ukrainian wife. She cannot come to the UK with him.
    The important thing here, is that that multiple is around 2. If it were 5 or 10 there would be no problem, that my wife couldn’t work for 2 years as we sorted out the immigration status.

    Oh, and she’s an English and Russian teacher from Ukraine. Some government agency or private school would snap her up in no time, she’s now, post EU withdrawal, better off applying in her own right than trying to come in as my wife.

    The major issues are:
    1. That income earned abroad doesn’t count for the earnings threshold, for sponsoring a spouse.
    2. That she can’t work until the formalities complete, whereas where we are now, she earns about 60% of my salary.

    The system is basically set up to assume that a foreign wife is an arranged marriage from the sub-continent, and not someone who moved abroad for work and fell in love there.
    My sense is that these types of international moves are massively complicated and time consuming - particularly when you have children, housing and some other assets. Immigration, visas, tax, housing, money etc... I guess that is why most people talk a lot about it but few people actually do it.

    I am in the middle of doing one myself and it has been 2 years of quite intensive planning.
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 1,132
    edited April 2023
    I have now in the runup to these local elections received leaflets not only from all three major parties but also from the "movement for Proportional Representation"...
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,660
    Cookie said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/23491345.john-curtice-support-royals-all-time-low-ahead-coronation/?ref=ebbn

    'SUPPORT for the royal family is at an “all time low”, Professor John Curtice has said.

    The polling expert’s assessment comes just one week ahead of King Charles’s coronation, which hit the headlines on Sunday after a call was put out for millions to give a “great cry” of allegiance during the ceremony.

    Speaking to GB News, Curtice said that the data was increasingly suggesting that younger generations were moving away from supporting the royals.

    “Support for them is now at an all time low and frankly it declined during the Queen Elizabeth era,” Curtice said.'

    Hmm. I don't think demands for a loyalty oath will help.

    Wokery.

    It's deeply fashionable now to be against Britain and any symbols of Britain on the basis that they represent "colonialism", "racism" and "slavery".

    Of course, this sentiment will be funded, advocated and encouraged by our enemies in China and Russia; they are hoping that if we lose enough self-confidence we might bring it all down on top of us ourselves.

    They might be right.
    An alternative view could be that Charles and co are inherited wealth personified. The vast majority of the young are pushing against entrenched and increasing wealth inequality. They are earning relatively low incomes and have little opportunity to improve their lot.

    This condition has been advocated for and encouraged by the Russia funded Conservative party who have no intention for this to change.
    Another alternative view is that it is just seen as a bit daft and faintly embarrasing. Opposition to the monarchy isn't furious, but support isn't strong either. Monarchy us a curious anachronism. It can survuve that sort of attitude as an institution, but only if it does its job well.
    I was trying to be a little too partisan.

    I do think you're on the right track. Maybe the monarchy only works while enough people care.

    “Power resides where men believe it resides. It's a trick. A shadow on the wall"
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Carnyx said:

    Cookie said:

    DavidL said:

    Omnium said:

    Chris said:

    WillG said:

    ... niqab-wearing ...

    Now, just imagine the reaction if you'd expressed concern about bringing people into the country wearing yarmulkas ...
    It's baseball caps that I'd like to see outlawed.
    A baseball cap is an amazing thing. When someone wears one it sucks the intelligence out of their brain.
    I don't think I have ever worn one. Probably just as well, all things considered.
    They are quite useful for actual sports. For example, I use one to keep rain off my glasses when rowing.
    If you can find one which fits your headshape (far from a given with my massive head) they do a decent job of keeping summer sun off a scalp not as shielded by hair as it once was, and in my case look less preposterous in doing so than most other hats.
    Tilley hats do the trick. Not as Croc Dundee as some.
    Very popular in Seattle AND also ugliest hats ever.

    Personally would rather wear an old bucket on my fool head.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838

    Carnyx said:

    Cookie said:

    DavidL said:

    Omnium said:

    Chris said:

    WillG said:

    ... niqab-wearing ...

    Now, just imagine the reaction if you'd expressed concern about bringing people into the country wearing yarmulkas ...
    It's baseball caps that I'd like to see outlawed.
    A baseball cap is an amazing thing. When someone wears one it sucks the intelligence out of their brain.
    I don't think I have ever worn one. Probably just as well, all things considered.
    They are quite useful for actual sports. For example, I use one to keep rain off my glasses when rowing.
    If you can find one which fits your headshape (far from a given with my massive head) they do a decent job of keeping summer sun off a scalp not as shielded by hair as it once was, and in my case look less preposterous in doing so than most other hats.
    Tilley hats do the trick. Not as Croc Dundee as some.
    Very popular in Seattle AND also ugliest hats ever.

    Personally would rather wear an old bucket on my fool head.
    Some of us don't have any choice. Too fair and too sensitive to the sun.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    edited April 2023
    darkage said:

    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    WillG said:

    WillG said:

    carnforth said:

    WillG said:

    Leon said:

    Theweb said:

    Leon said:

    I’d also be interested in seeing the polling data that shows the Brits are AOK with net migration of ONE MILLION PEOPLE a year

    I don’t believe it exists, it’s a load of bollocks. Poll after poll shows that Brits want minimal or even zero net migration. They can see the pressure on the NHS, they can see the shit in our rivers as our system struggles to cope with a population gone from around 58m to 68m in 25 years, largely through immigration

    1m a year means we go from 68 to 78 million in another decade, possibly overtaking Germany as the most populous European country with less than half the land. We will have to build 1m homes a year, which we can never do, where do they all go? Do we have any countryside left?

    PBers do talk an awful lot of virtue signaling shite on this subject. 1m a year, yeah, no biggie

    The polls might show that but underneath the brits really arent that bothered. They like to spout on this subject but it aint serious. If it was far right parties would be rising which aint happening.
    That vote for Brexit clearly escaped your attention, then
    Brexit wasn't about immigration. Leave voters are a tolerant and welcoming folk. Indeed it was to increase immigration from other parts of the globe - thus broadening diversity and eschewing the white, euro-centric immigration that EU membership tended to impose - that, after the reclamation of sovereignty, was the prime motivation behind their decision. This has been explained on these threads time and time again.
    Yes, the purpose was to replace unskilled migration from the EU with high skilled migration from the rest of the world. The problem is that it is low skilled migration that has taken off.
    The Shortage Occupation List contains "graphic designer" at a salary of £18800, a job which can often be done remotely, for example. Perhaps there is a good reason for its inclusion, but I would love to know what it is....
    Any "artist" earning £16800 a year qualifies.
    And the Migration Advisory Committee wants plasterers and joiners added. It is ridiculous.

    And nobody talks about family migration, where you can bring in a teenage, niqab-wearing, arranged bride, as long as you earn 19k a year from your Deliveroo job.
    You should talk to @Sandpit. He is a British citizen, earning a multiple of the average wage, in Dubai, with a Ukrainian wife. She cannot come to the UK with him.
    The important thing here, is that that multiple is around 2. If it were 5 or 10 there would be no problem, that my wife couldn’t work for 2 years as we sorted out the immigration status.

    Oh, and she’s an English and Russian teacher from Ukraine. Some government agency or private school would snap her up in no time, she’s now, post EU withdrawal, better off applying in her own right than trying to come in as my wife.

    The major issues are:
    1. That income earned abroad doesn’t count for the earnings threshold, for sponsoring a spouse.
    2. That she can’t work until the formalities complete, whereas where we are now, she earns about 60% of my salary.

    The system is basically set up to assume that a foreign wife is an arranged marriage from the sub-continent, and not someone who moved abroad for work and fell in love there.
    My sense is that these types of international moves are massively complicated and time consuming - particularly when you have children, housing and some other assets. Immigration, visas, tax, housing, money etc... I guess that is why most people talk a lot about it but few people actually do it.

    I am in the middle of doing one myself and it has been 2 years of quite intensive planning.
    Yep. Maintaining the status quo is so much easier. You do have to plan for contingencies (ask those who were in Khartoum), but you can have a good life where you are, without a massive change that screws your life up.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075
    darkage said:

    https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2023/04/28/yuval-noah-harari-argues-that-ai-has-hacked-the-operating-system-of-human-civilisation

    This is a good article in the economist by Yuval Noah Harari. One idea is that the regulation of AI in the west would put it at competitive advantage over other countries where AI runs amok, leading to chaos. I hadn't thought of that.

    I believe the outcome of AI-human interactions on a global scale has been visually depicted in many historical documents. Robotic skeletons seem to be popular, in one way or another, but the final outcome is rarely good.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    Theweb said:

    Cookie said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/23491345.john-curtice-support-royals-all-time-low-ahead-coronation/?ref=ebbn

    'SUPPORT for the royal family is at an “all time low”, Professor John Curtice has said.

    The polling expert’s assessment comes just one week ahead of King Charles’s coronation, which hit the headlines on Sunday after a call was put out for millions to give a “great cry” of allegiance during the ceremony.

    Speaking to GB News, Curtice said that the data was increasingly suggesting that younger generations were moving away from supporting the royals.

    “Support for them is now at an all time low and frankly it declined during the Queen Elizabeth era,” Curtice said.'

    Hmm. I don't think demands for a loyalty oath will help.

    Wokery.

    It's deeply fashionable now to be against Britain and any symbols of Britain on the basis that they represent "colonialism", "racism" and "slavery".

    Of course, this sentiment will be funded, advocated and encouraged by our enemies in China and Russia; they are hoping that if we lose enough self-confidence we might bring it all down on top of us ourselves.

    They might be right.
    An alternative view could be that Charles and co are inherited wealth personified. The vast majority of the young are pushing against entrenched and increasing wealth inequality. They are earning relatively low incomes and have little opportunity to improve their lot.

    This condition has been advocated for and encouraged by the Russia funded Conservative party who have no intention for this to change.
    Another alternative view is that it is just seen as a bit daft and faintly embarrasing. Opposition to the monarchy isn't furious, but support isn't strong either. Monarchy us a curious anachronism. It can survuve that sort of attitude as an institution, but only if it does its job well.
    Also as the country becomes more diverse support for the monarchy will inevitably decline.
    Support for monarchy can be on the floor, so long as there is no consensus as to what the replacement might be.
    Having a totally impotent ceremonial King, who in theory has power, but in practice doesn’t, is sometimes better than having a President with actual power.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    Sandpit said:

    So, just catching up on the F1, did Max pit a lap early in anticipation of the safety car, rather than waiting until it was actually deployed? Or was he coming in that lap anyway, and just got unlucky?

    Max pitted and then there was the safety car - luck just went against him.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,504
    edited April 2023

    Foxy said:

    When did absolutely everybody first start disliking Jews and giving them such a bad press? Does it start with the Jews having Jesus killed?

    Careful, that is another antisemitic trope. Two of them in fact. That Jews killed Jesus and more fundamentally that Jews did anything to deserve universal antisemitism.
    Indeed, it was the Romans. We are supposed to skip over that because Constantine turned the Romans into goodies.
    “Careful, that is another antisemitic trope. That Jews killed Jesus”
    “Indeed, it was the Romans. We are supposed to skip over that because Constantine turned the Romans into goodies”

    Obviously I don’t expect much understanding from DecrepitJohn, who like 98% of PB likely not a Christian. But I am very surprised you say this Foxy. I am surprised we are so far apart on the passion 🥺
    The Passion According To MoonRabbit

    Jesus was a Jew from a time of sectarian turbulence. Jesus and his followers launched what can be called a terror attack on the Temple and the authority of high priests running the Jewish council, the headline was attacking money lenders and saying they were defiling a holy place. I see this attack like the reformation - Jesus argument is money lenders charged rip off rates, the sacrificial dove sellers were a rip off, and the need to pay for ritual bathing to get clean to pray a rip off too. leading priests and scribes (law writers) lived lavish lifestyles, they liked having this income. The ruling council were pissed off and feeling humiliated by Jesus attack on their authority.
    Joseph (Of Aramathea) was at hastily called elite council meeting, representing his sect, but out voted on decision to arrest Jesus and have him killed. Some on ruling council happy Jesus appeared to over step the mark; Pharisee, a strict religious sect of Jews, didn’t like Jesus message, it wasn’t orthodox preaching as he was mingling Greek philosophy particularly from Plato, for example The Sermon On The Mount, with the Torah forming not so strict Jewish code, a more hellenised message for Jews.
    Jesus arrest by the Temple Guards (Jews) was a sword fight, indeed lead Jew arresting Jesus lost an ear (AN Wilson reckons this player went on to become Paul).
    Jesus was tried by the Jewish court, the charge was Blasphemy for claiming to be King of the Jews.
    to the Jewish ruling council, Jesus deliberately rode into town on a donkey, fulfilling a prophecy in the Hebrew Bible about the coming of the Messiah, and was mobbed by an adoring crowd. The court found Jesus guilty. But the court didn’t have the power to execute people. Jesus was handed over to the Romans with strong recommendation from the Jewish Council to execute him for sedition.
    The Roman occupiers had their own considerations. Passover always difficult time for running the province, crowds piling in. Pilate, however you characterise him, had career in Roman Empire depending on running the province smooth and efficiently, had 6,000 soldiers on hand to keep the peace in a city now bulging with 2.5 million Jews, and religious authorities, whose cooperation he needed for a quiet life, wanted him to execute Jesus, supported by angry mob possibly organised by Temple authorities, if strict in their faith, like Pharisee, happy to come baying for Jesus' blood. Jesus had public support but Pharisee could get a lot of supporters out demonstrating too. It all leads to an obvious conclusion except the question, did Jesus come here knowing it would lead to this or not.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Theweb said:

    Cookie said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/23491345.john-curtice-support-royals-all-time-low-ahead-coronation/?ref=ebbn

    'SUPPORT for the royal family is at an “all time low”, Professor John Curtice has said.

    The polling expert’s assessment comes just one week ahead of King Charles’s coronation, which hit the headlines on Sunday after a call was put out for millions to give a “great cry” of allegiance during the ceremony.

    Speaking to GB News, Curtice said that the data was increasingly suggesting that younger generations were moving away from supporting the royals.

    “Support for them is now at an all time low and frankly it declined during the Queen Elizabeth era,” Curtice said.'

    Hmm. I don't think demands for a loyalty oath will help.

    Wokery.

    It's deeply fashionable now to be against Britain and any symbols of Britain on the basis that they represent "colonialism", "racism" and "slavery".

    Of course, this sentiment will be funded, advocated and encouraged by our enemies in China and Russia; they are hoping that if we lose enough self-confidence we might bring it all down on top of us ourselves.

    They might be right.
    An alternative view could be that Charles and co are inherited wealth personified. The vast majority of the young are pushing against entrenched and increasing wealth inequality. They are earning relatively low incomes and have little opportunity to improve their lot.

    This condition has been advocated for and encouraged by the Russia funded Conservative party who have no intention for this to change.
    Another alternative view is that it is just seen as a bit daft and faintly embarrasing. Opposition to the monarchy isn't furious, but support isn't strong either. Monarchy us a curious anachronism. It can survuve that sort of attitude as an institution, but only if it does its job well.
    Also as the country becomes more diverse support for the monarchy will inevitably decline.
    Not sure about that. The UK has become more diverse over the past 3 or so decades but the support for the royal family has remained high.

    Just out of interest, have you posted on this site before? Your style does seem quite familiar.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    Ooh, Spurs being a little less Spursy.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/23491345.john-curtice-support-royals-all-time-low-ahead-coronation/?ref=ebbn

    'SUPPORT for the royal family is at an “all time low”, Professor John Curtice has said.

    The polling expert’s assessment comes just one week ahead of King Charles’s coronation, which hit the headlines on Sunday after a call was put out for millions to give a “great cry” of allegiance during the ceremony.

    Speaking to GB News, Curtice said that the data was increasingly suggesting that younger generations were moving away from supporting the royals.

    “Support for them is now at an all time low and frankly it declined during the Queen Elizabeth era,” Curtice said.'

    Hmm. I don't think demands for a loyalty oath will help.

    Wokery.

    It's deeply fashionable now to be against Britain and any symbols of Britain on the basis that they represent "colonialism", "racism" and "slavery".

    Of course, this sentiment will be funded, advocated and encouraged by our enemies in China and Russia; they are hoping that if we lose enough self-confidence we might bring it all down on top of us ourselves.

    They might be right.
    Russia, and Russian propaganda being well known for ‘wokery’.
    Strange universe you sometimes inhabit.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,354
    Carnyx said:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/23491345.john-curtice-support-royals-all-time-low-ahead-coronation/?ref=ebbn

    'SUPPORT for the royal family is at an “all time low”, Professor John Curtice has said.

    The polling expert’s assessment comes just one week ahead of King Charles’s coronation, which hit the headlines on Sunday after a call was put out for millions to give a “great cry” of allegiance during the ceremony.

    Speaking to GB News, Curtice said that the data was increasingly suggesting that younger generations were moving away from supporting the royals.

    “Support for them is now at an all time low and frankly it declined during the Queen Elizabeth era,” Curtice said.'

    Hmm. I don't think demands for a loyalty oath will help.

    From the polling I've seen, it seems pretty solid to me.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,354

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/23491345.john-curtice-support-royals-all-time-low-ahead-coronation/?ref=ebbn

    'SUPPORT for the royal family is at an “all time low”, Professor John Curtice has said.

    The polling expert’s assessment comes just one week ahead of King Charles’s coronation, which hit the headlines on Sunday after a call was put out for millions to give a “great cry” of allegiance during the ceremony.

    Speaking to GB News, Curtice said that the data was increasingly suggesting that younger generations were moving away from supporting the royals.

    “Support for them is now at an all time low and frankly it declined during the Queen Elizabeth era,” Curtice said.'

    Hmm. I don't think demands for a loyalty oath will help.

    Wokery.

    It's deeply fashionable now to be against Britain and any symbols of Britain on the basis that they represent "colonialism", "racism" and "slavery".

    Of course, this sentiment will be funded, advocated and encouraged by our enemies in China and Russia; they are hoping that if we lose enough self-confidence we might bring it all down on top of us ourselves.

    They might be right.
    An alternative view could be that Charles and co are inherited wealth personified. The vast majority of the young are pushing against entrenched and increasing wealth inequality. They are earning relatively low incomes and have little opportunity to improve their lot.

    This condition has been advocated for and encouraged by the Russia funded Conservative party who have no intention for this to change.
    I doubt if many young people who will inherit object to inherited wealth,
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/23491345.john-curtice-support-royals-all-time-low-ahead-coronation/?ref=ebbn

    'SUPPORT for the royal family is at an “all time low”, Professor John Curtice has said.

    The polling expert’s assessment comes just one week ahead of King Charles’s coronation, which hit the headlines on Sunday after a call was put out for millions to give a “great cry” of allegiance during the ceremony.

    Speaking to GB News, Curtice said that the data was increasingly suggesting that younger generations were moving away from supporting the royals.

    “Support for them is now at an all time low and frankly it declined during the Queen Elizabeth era,” Curtice said.'

    Hmm. I don't think demands for a loyalty oath will help.

    Wokery.

    It's deeply fashionable now to be against Britain and any symbols of Britain on the basis that they represent "colonialism", "racism" and "slavery".

    Of course, this sentiment will be funded, advocated and encouraged by our enemies in China and Russia; they are hoping that if we lose enough self-confidence we might bring it all down on top of us ourselves.

    They might be right.
    Russia, and Russian propaganda being well known for ‘wokery’.
    Strange universe you sometimes inhabit.
    Actually he has a point.
    Russia is willing to fund any movement that looks like it can disrupt UK stability.
    That has certainly included Scottish independence in recent times, but also Brexit.

    They are equal opportunity disrupters.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    Sean_F said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/23491345.john-curtice-support-royals-all-time-low-ahead-coronation/?ref=ebbn

    'SUPPORT for the royal family is at an “all time low”, Professor John Curtice has said.

    The polling expert’s assessment comes just one week ahead of King Charles’s coronation, which hit the headlines on Sunday after a call was put out for millions to give a “great cry” of allegiance during the ceremony.

    Speaking to GB News, Curtice said that the data was increasingly suggesting that younger generations were moving away from supporting the royals.

    “Support for them is now at an all time low and frankly it declined during the Queen Elizabeth era,” Curtice said.'

    Hmm. I don't think demands for a loyalty oath will help.

    From the polling I've seen, it seems pretty solid to me.
    Well, what does Prof C know? He's only a prof of psephology.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/23491345.john-curtice-support-royals-all-time-low-ahead-coronation/?ref=ebbn

    'SUPPORT for the royal family is at an “all time low”, Professor John Curtice has said.

    The polling expert’s assessment comes just one week ahead of King Charles’s coronation, which hit the headlines on Sunday after a call was put out for millions to give a “great cry” of allegiance during the ceremony.

    Speaking to GB News, Curtice said that the data was increasingly suggesting that younger generations were moving away from supporting the royals.

    “Support for them is now at an all time low and frankly it declined during the Queen Elizabeth era,” Curtice said.'

    Hmm. I don't think demands for a loyalty oath will help.

    Wokery.

    It's deeply fashionable now to be against Britain and any symbols of Britain on the basis that they represent "colonialism", "racism" and "slavery".

    Of course, this sentiment will be funded, advocated and encouraged by our enemies in China and Russia; they are hoping that if we lose enough self-confidence we might bring it all down on top of us ourselves.

    They might be right.
    Russia, and Russian propaganda being well known for ‘wokery’.
    Strange universe you sometimes inhabit.
    Yes, the Russian trolling contains a fair amount of both wokery and anti-wokery.

    They just want to see Western nations divided, and don’t care too much about how it happens.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,250

    WillG said:

    WillG said:

    carnforth said:

    WillG said:

    Leon said:

    Theweb said:

    Leon said:

    I’d also be interested in seeing the polling data that shows the Brits are AOK with net migration of ONE MILLION PEOPLE a year

    I don’t believe it exists, it’s a load of bollocks. Poll after poll shows that Brits want minimal or even zero net migration. They can see the pressure on the NHS, they can see the shit in our rivers as our system struggles to cope with a population gone from around 58m to 68m in 25 years, largely through immigration

    1m a year means we go from 68 to 78 million in another decade, possibly overtaking Germany as the most populous European country with less than half the land. We will have to build 1m homes a year, which we can never do, where do they all go? Do we have any countryside left?

    PBers do talk an awful lot of virtue signaling shite on this subject. 1m a year, yeah, no biggie

    The polls might show that but underneath the brits really arent that bothered. They like to spout on this subject but it aint serious. If it was far right parties would be rising which aint happening.
    That vote for Brexit clearly escaped your attention, then
    Brexit wasn't about immigration. Leave voters are a tolerant and welcoming folk. Indeed it was to increase immigration from other parts of the globe - thus broadening diversity and eschewing the white, euro-centric immigration that EU membership tended to impose - that, after the reclamation of sovereignty, was the prime motivation behind their decision. This has been explained on these threads time and time again.
    Yes, the purpose was to replace unskilled migration from the EU with high skilled migration from the rest of the world. The problem is that it is low skilled migration that has taken off.
    The Shortage Occupation List contains "graphic designer" at a salary of £18800, a job which can often be done remotely, for example. Perhaps there is a good reason for its inclusion, but I would love to know what it is....
    Any "artist" earning £16800 a year qualifies.
    And the Migration Advisory Committee wants plasterers and joiners added. It is ridiculous.

    And nobody talks about family migration, where you can bring in a teenage, niqab-wearing, arranged bride, as long as you earn 19k a year from your Deliveroo job.
    Interesting narrative there Will. Do you think you might actually harbour some sort of unpleasant prejudice?
    Chain migration flies in the face of a “melting pot” concept and is often abused (the original intention was to allow pre-existing families to join easily but that’s not the way it has played out in practice). It’s not an unalloyed good.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,906

    Wokery.

    It's deeply fashionable now to be against Britain and any symbols of Britain on the basis that they represent "colonialism", "racism" and "slavery".

    Of course, this sentiment will be funded, advocated and encouraged by our enemies in China and Russia; they are hoping that if we lose enough self-confidence we might bring it all down on top of us ourselves.

    They might be right.

    I am deeply suspicious of some of the sub-mainstream news organisations that crop up on social media. They never seem to employ many journalists, they are usually quite new to the news game, their funding is often opaque, but they put out a large and continuous stream of negative news, which gets lots of eyes on Reddit, Twitter, Facebook and the like. Generally the reporting of stories is so skewed in terms of what we would expect from real journalists that it comes close to publishing falsehoods.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,354
    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/23491345.john-curtice-support-royals-all-time-low-ahead-coronation/?ref=ebbn

    'SUPPORT for the royal family is at an “all time low”, Professor John Curtice has said.

    The polling expert’s assessment comes just one week ahead of King Charles’s coronation, which hit the headlines on Sunday after a call was put out for millions to give a “great cry” of allegiance during the ceremony.

    Speaking to GB News, Curtice said that the data was increasingly suggesting that younger generations were moving away from supporting the royals.

    “Support for them is now at an all time low and frankly it declined during the Queen Elizabeth era,” Curtice said.'

    Hmm. I don't think demands for a loyalty oath will help.

    Wokery.

    It's deeply fashionable now to be against Britain and any symbols of Britain on the basis that they represent "colonialism", "racism" and "slavery".

    Of course, this sentiment will be funded, advocated and encouraged by our enemies in China and Russia; they are hoping that if we lose enough self-confidence we might bring it all down on top of us ourselves.

    They might be right.
    Bud Light says hi. They’re getting smashed to bits in the States at the moment, after a partnership with a guy who is basically a transgender version of blackface went horribly wrong. Sales down 40% in a fortnight, and two senior managers ‘on leave’.
    The boycott of Hogwarts Legacy was also a complete failure: it is still - months after release - the third best selling full priced video game, behind only the brand new Jedi Survivor game and the new Modern Warfare game.

    Capitalism works, folks.
    Interestingly - and counterintuitively - it might not have the long-term effect @Sandpit predicts

    https://www.ft.com/content/3a84b28c-912a-4805-b942-13e597766a93
    https://www.nytimes.com/article/bud-light-boycott.html
    The main problem with Bud is that it tastes like dishwater.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited April 2023
    It’s important for the monarchy to stay above the fray, not just politics, but also the gossip columns.

    The current crop have done a poor job of that, and long term support will suffer.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,250
    Cookie said:

    Thread has moved on without me...
    In a bit of a flashback to the 1980s, I'm currently in an Argos buying a thermos flask. It's terribly exciting - as if Amazon was a real life store. And less than 10 minutes from deciding to but the product to standing here with it in my hand. Slightly surprised to find these places still exist.

    I'm now celebrating my purchase with a take away coffee from costa, which is, it turns out, cash only. Maybe this really is the 80s.

    Your coffee would have been a lot cheaper in the 80s…
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,989
    We’re on the cusp of May, the barbecue is bravely going on its first outing of the season, and it’s Sunday evening. So that must mean only one thing: Now 90s Dancefloor. Just had St Etienne’s she’s on the phone, then a bit of Gina G and now someone wants to see the sunshine after the rain.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,906
    Nigelb said:

    Russia, and Russian propaganda being well known for ‘wokery’.
    Strange universe you sometimes inhabit.

    See you are just plain wrong, they absolutely do push both sides of an argument. The Russian goal before all else is division in the West and more widely the democratic world. It would be easier to counter if they had an angle, but really they amplify arguments, and add noise to drown out the signal.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,504
    viewcode said:

    ...YouGov interviewed 6,004 British adults between 21 and 28 April. Not a huge sample to back up such precision predictions, or is it?...

    Good question.

    DEEP BREATH

    The saying goes "you don't have to drink all the soup to know if it's salty"

    AND

    Polling techniques that rely on the central limit theorem have a well-discussed formula for the margin of error and six thousand is more than enough

    BUT

    Poll response in the modern day is so poor it makes poll-response self-selective and nonrandom and makes that formula inapplicable

    AND

    MRP is a modelling technique that isn't theoretically underpinned by the CLT - it's just a big data technique - and so that formula doesn't apply anyway

    SO

    We don't know.

    ALSO

    Following the reforms of the past few years the polling companies committed to include a statement on what the margin of error should be...but YouGov haven't in this poll

    Are we happy now?




    Happy this is PB analytics at its best.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited April 2023
    TimS said:

    We’re on the cusp of May, the barbecue is bravely going on its first outing of the season, and it’s Sunday evening. So that must mean only one thing: Now 90s Dancefloor. Just had St Etienne’s she’s on the phone, then a bit of Gina G and now someone wants to see the sunshine after the rain.

    Ghastly. Glad I don’t live door! 😆
  • Village chipper has some sad looking union flag pennants hanging from the ceiling. I do wonder if half-arsed will be *the* look this coronation.

    Seriously though, the notion that we all sit patriotically around the telly and chant a pledge of fealty at the correct time is the most absurd thing I have heard in ages.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,354
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/23491345.john-curtice-support-royals-all-time-low-ahead-coronation/?ref=ebbn

    'SUPPORT for the royal family is at an “all time low”, Professor John Curtice has said.

    The polling expert’s assessment comes just one week ahead of King Charles’s coronation, which hit the headlines on Sunday after a call was put out for millions to give a “great cry” of allegiance during the ceremony.

    Speaking to GB News, Curtice said that the data was increasingly suggesting that younger generations were moving away from supporting the royals.

    “Support for them is now at an all time low and frankly it declined during the Queen Elizabeth era,” Curtice said.'

    Hmm. I don't think demands for a loyalty oath will help.

    Wokery.

    It's deeply fashionable now to be against Britain and any symbols of Britain on the basis that they represent "colonialism", "racism" and "slavery".

    Of course, this sentiment will be funded, advocated and encouraged by our enemies in China and Russia; they are hoping that if we lose enough self-confidence we might bring it all down on top of us ourselves.

    They might be right.
    Bud Light says hi. They’re getting smashed to bits in the States at the moment, after a partnership with a guy who is basically a transgender version of blackface went horribly wrong. Sales down 40% in a fortnight, and two senior managers ‘on leave’.
    The boycott of Hogwarts Legacy was also a complete failure: it is still - months after release - the third best selling full priced video game, behind only the brand new Jedi Survivor game and the new Modern Warfare game.

    Capitalism works, folks.
    The boycott probably boosted sales, the Streisand Effect.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,354

    Village chipper has some sad looking union flag pennants hanging from the ceiling. I do wonder if half-arsed will be *the* look this coronation.

    Seriously though, the notion that we all sit patriotically around the telly and chant a pledge of fealty at the correct time is the most absurd thing I have heard in ages.

    North Hertfordshire, OTOH, does look as though it will be celebrating. There's loads of bunting in the villages.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Just met some American friends who have returned from a trip to Britain, the first in a long while.

    Apparently the country is now “notably shabby”, and “falling to bits”, and “beer prices now rival New York”.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    edited April 2023
    Dialup said:

    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    This is presumably based on their poll earlier in the week? It wasn't a good one for the Conservatives, that's for sure.

    No, different poll.

    YouGov interviewed over 6,004 British adults between 21 and 28 April 2023 about the upcoming elections, and used Multilevel Regression and Post-Stratification (MRP) to model the estimated vote outcomes. MRP models first estimate the relationship between a wide variety of characteristics about people and their opinions – in this case, beliefs about their local areas – in what is called a ‘multilevel model’, which allows us to account for specific area (in this case, council) level effects as well as background information about respondents themselves. MRP then uses data at the local level to predict outcomes based on the concentration of various different types of people who live there.

    The model assigns each type of person a probability of voting for each party at the local election (this is the ‘post-stratification’ component), and then estimates the area-level distributions using information about how many of those specific types of voters live in each area. In this instance, 1000 draws from the posterior distribution of the multilevel model were used to predict the council-level probabilities, which ran for 10,000 iterations across four parallel chains. MRP has been successfully used to predict the outcomes of both the 2017 and 2019 UK general elections.
    So, 2 bad polls. Hmm...
    Smallest Labour lead in 2023 is 10%.

    Quite a few bad polls for the Tories in 2023.
    As I said earlier, we're very much at "here is how the Tories can still win" despite being at best 10 points behind. This has a very GE19 feel to it.
    You are anticipating an 80 seat Conservative majority?

    I think the Tories will probably win, but I am not as pessimistic as your 80 seat projection. I had more like a 20 seat majority.

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/23491345.john-curtice-support-royals-all-time-low-ahead-coronation/?ref=ebbn

    'SUPPORT for the royal family is at an “all time low”, Professor John Curtice has said.

    The polling expert’s assessment comes just one week ahead of King Charles’s coronation, which hit the headlines on Sunday after a call was put out for millions to give a “great cry” of allegiance during the ceremony.

    Speaking to GB News, Curtice said that the data was increasingly suggesting that younger generations were moving away from supporting the royals.

    “Support for them is now at an all time low and frankly it declined during the Queen Elizabeth era,” Curtice said.'

    Hmm. I don't think demands for a loyalty oath will help.

    Wokery.

    It's deeply fashionable now to be against Britain and any symbols of Britain on the basis that they represent "colonialism", "racism" and "slavery".

    Of course, this sentiment will be funded, advocated and encouraged by our enemies in China and Russia; they are hoping that if we lose enough self-confidence we might bring it all down on top of us ourselves.

    They might be right.
    On the other hand it might be just that many of us consider Charles and his former mistress to both be self-indulgent wastes of space.

    Kow-towing to someone so superior and out of touch that he wants us to pledge an oath of allegiance to him may float your boat, but it doesn't mine. Charles's latest demand is so Henry VIII.

    If you want your Coronation, crowd fund it. I don't want my taxes spent on such nonsense, particularly in the midst of an economic crisis.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,601
    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/23491345.john-curtice-support-royals-all-time-low-ahead-coronation/?ref=ebbn

    'SUPPORT for the royal family is at an “all time low”, Professor John Curtice has said.

    The polling expert’s assessment comes just one week ahead of King Charles’s coronation, which hit the headlines on Sunday after a call was put out for millions to give a “great cry” of allegiance during the ceremony.

    Speaking to GB News, Curtice said that the data was increasingly suggesting that younger generations were moving away from supporting the royals.

    “Support for them is now at an all time low and frankly it declined during the Queen Elizabeth era,” Curtice said.'

    Hmm. I don't think demands for a loyalty oath will help.

    Wokery.

    It's deeply fashionable now to be against Britain and any symbols of Britain on the basis that they represent "colonialism", "racism" and "slavery".

    Of course, this sentiment will be funded, advocated and encouraged by our enemies in China and Russia; they are hoping that if we lose enough self-confidence we might bring it all down on top of us ourselves.

    They might be right.
    Russia, and Russian propaganda being well known for ‘wokery’.
    Strange universe you sometimes inhabit.
    So Russia thinks 'wokery' is damaging to a country.

    Which would suggest that Russia might think that encouraging 'wokery' in rival countries will damage them.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/23491345.john-curtice-support-royals-all-time-low-ahead-coronation/?ref=ebbn

    'SUPPORT for the royal family is at an “all time low”, Professor John Curtice has said.

    The polling expert’s assessment comes just one week ahead of King Charles’s coronation, which hit the headlines on Sunday after a call was put out for millions to give a “great cry” of allegiance during the ceremony.

    Speaking to GB News, Curtice said that the data was increasingly suggesting that younger generations were moving away from supporting the royals.

    “Support for them is now at an all time low and frankly it declined during the Queen Elizabeth era,” Curtice said.'

    Hmm. I don't think demands for a loyalty oath will help.

    Wokery.

    It's deeply fashionable now to be against Britain and any symbols of Britain on the basis that they represent "colonialism", "racism" and "slavery".

    Of course, this sentiment will be funded, advocated and encouraged by our enemies in China and Russia; they are hoping that if we lose enough self-confidence we might bring it all down on top of us ourselves.

    They might be right.
    Russia, and Russian propaganda being well known for ‘wokery’.
    Strange universe you sometimes inhabit.
    I think it is pretty clear that these hostile powers support propoganda operations on both sides - 'woke' and 'anti-woke'. The aim really is to just confuse and alienate populations, reducing the coherance of the state, and setting the ground for other forms of political manipulation, it is a form of psychological warfare that is potentially going to get worse with AI.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    WillG said:

    WillG said:

    carnforth said:

    WillG said:

    Leon said:

    Theweb said:

    Leon said:

    I’d also be interested in seeing the polling data that shows the Brits are AOK with net migration of ONE MILLION PEOPLE a year

    I don’t believe it exists, it’s a load of bollocks. Poll after poll shows that Brits want minimal or even zero net migration. They can see the pressure on the NHS, they can see the shit in our rivers as our system struggles to cope with a population gone from around 58m to 68m in 25 years, largely through immigration

    1m a year means we go from 68 to 78 million in another decade, possibly overtaking Germany as the most populous European country with less than half the land. We will have to build 1m homes a year, which we can never do, where do they all go? Do we have any countryside left?

    PBers do talk an awful lot of virtue signaling shite on this subject. 1m a year, yeah, no biggie

    The polls might show that but underneath the brits really arent that bothered. They like to spout on this subject but it aint serious. If it was far right parties would be rising which aint happening.
    That vote for Brexit clearly escaped your attention, then
    Brexit wasn't about immigration. Leave voters are a tolerant and welcoming folk. Indeed it was to increase immigration from other parts of the globe - thus broadening diversity and eschewing the white, euro-centric immigration that EU membership tended to impose - that, after the reclamation of sovereignty, was the prime motivation behind their decision. This has been explained on these threads time and time again.
    Yes, the purpose was to replace unskilled migration from the EU with high skilled migration from the rest of the world. The problem is that it is low skilled migration that has taken off.
    The Shortage Occupation List contains "graphic designer" at a salary of £18800, a job which can often be done remotely, for example. Perhaps there is a good reason for its inclusion, but I would love to know what it is....
    Any "artist" earning £16800 a year qualifies.
    And the Migration Advisory Committee wants plasterers and joiners added. It is ridiculous.

    And nobody talks about family migration, where you can bring in a teenage, niqab-wearing, arranged bride, as long as you earn 19k a year from your Deliveroo job.
    You should talk to @Sandpit. He is a British citizen, earning a multiple of the average wage, in Dubai, with a Ukrainian wife. She cannot come to the UK with him.
    The important thing here, is that that multiple is around 2. If it were 5 or 10 there would be no problem, that my wife couldn’t work for 2 years as we sorted out the immigration status.

    Oh, and she’s an English and Russian teacher from Ukraine. Some government agency or private school would snap her up in no time, she’s now, post EU withdrawal, better off applying in her own right than trying to come in as my wife.

    The major issues are:
    1. That income earned abroad doesn’t count for the earnings threshold, for sponsoring a spouse.
    2. That she can’t work until the formalities complete, whereas where we are now, she earns about 60% of my salary.

    The system is basically set up to assume that a foreign wife is an arranged marriage from the sub-continent, and not someone who moved abroad for work and fell in love there.
    The simple solution is to triple the income threshold but allow foreign earnings from reputable sources to count.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    Liverpool!!!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075
    edited April 2023
    Sandpit said:

    Of course it was a failure. When they try and go for a Jo Rowling or a Joe Rogan, who don’t just have f.you money, they produce stuff that millions of people who don’t spend all day on Twitter actually care about, they’re doomed to failure.

    What’s more important, is to stand up for the free speech of others below that threshold. Didn’t one lady children’s author lose her publishing deal for a Tweet in support of Rowling?

    Julie Burchill was cancelled because anti-trans. Her publisher (I forget whom) said this was an appalling violation of free speech and virtue-signalled to publish a book in which she would explain herself. She wrote it, they read it, it included a passage in which she was anti- some other group. They said (and IIRC this is an exact-ish quote) "something something free speech but there are limits" and dropped her. So she got another publisher and they set up to publish it, but then Twitter found out that the new publisher had said something racist, so Julie was cancelled for the third time.

    In short, free speech in the UK is an utter farce.

    It's a hierarchy of screaming and shouting. It can go to Orwellian lengths, where Toby Young in the Express argued that a trans person who said JK Rowling was a transphobe should themselves be cancelled, which resulted in the head of an orgainisation nominally devoted to free speech encouraging cancellation of a view he disliked.

    I am reminded of this: https://twitter.com/TheFIREorg/status/1651739755586162689 .


  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288

    TimS said:

    We’re on the cusp of May, the barbecue is bravely going on its first outing of the season, and it’s Sunday evening. So that must mean only one thing: Now 90s Dancefloor. Just had St Etienne’s she’s on the phone, then a bit of Gina G and now someone wants to see the sunshine after the rain.

    Ghastly. Glad I don’t live door! 😆
    My head cannot help but turning the chorus of Kasabian s Club Foot into a half tempo version of the said Gina G song in some Frankenstein cut and shut earworm. No idea why.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075
    edited April 2023
    [deleted]
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    edited April 2023

    Just met some American friends who have returned from a trip to Britain, the first in a long while.

    Apparently the country is now “notably shabby”, and “falling to bits”, and “beer prices now rival New York”.

    I disagree with their assessment. Britain is less shabby than it's been for a long time, especially in London, with the Elizabeth Line, etc.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    YouGov, me, and a newborn baby all predict high Tory losses.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,779

    Just met some American friends who have returned from a trip to Britain, the first in a long while.

    Apparently the country is now “notably shabby”, and “falling to bits”, and “beer prices now rival New York”.

    That's a toxic combination. I remember visiting Eastern Europe in the early 1990s and it looked like shit but the beer was so cheap (and so good!) it was hard not to love it.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    Just met some American friends who have returned from a trip to Britain, the first in a long while.

    Apparently the country is now “notably shabby”, and “falling to bits”, and “beer prices now rival New York”.

    The difference being that, in the States, the beer is $8, but the bartender gets really offended if you want any change from the $10 note you gave him.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,320

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/23491345.john-curtice-support-royals-all-time-low-ahead-coronation/?ref=ebbn

    'SUPPORT for the royal family is at an “all time low”, Professor John Curtice has said.

    The polling expert’s assessment comes just one week ahead of King Charles’s coronation, which hit the headlines on Sunday after a call was put out for millions to give a “great cry” of allegiance during the ceremony.

    Speaking to GB News, Curtice said that the data was increasingly suggesting that younger generations were moving away from supporting the royals.

    “Support for them is now at an all time low and frankly it declined during the Queen Elizabeth era,” Curtice said.'

    Hmm. I don't think demands for a loyalty oath will help.

    Wokery.

    It's deeply fashionable now to be against Britain and any symbols of Britain on the basis that they represent "colonialism", "racism" and "slavery".

    Of course, this sentiment will be funded, advocated and encouraged by our enemies in China and Russia; they are hoping that if we lose enough self-confidence we might bring it all down on top of us ourselves.

    They might be right.
    Russia, and Russian propaganda being well known for ‘wokery’.
    Strange universe you sometimes inhabit.
    Actually he has a point.
    Russia is willing to fund any movement that looks like it can disrupt UK stability.
    That has certainly included Scottish independence in recent times, but also Brexit.

    They are equal opportunity disrupters.
    WTF did they have to do with Scottish Independence, must have plucked that one out of your arse.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,601

    Just met some American friends who have returned from a trip to Britain, the first in a long while.

    Apparently the country is now “notably shabby”, and “falling to bits”, and “beer prices now rival New York”.

    What are beer prices in New York ?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Sandpit said:

    Just met some American friends who have returned from a trip to Britain, the first in a long while.

    Apparently the country is now “notably shabby”, and “falling to bits”, and “beer prices now rival New York”.

    The difference being that, in the States, the beer is $8, but the bartender gets really offended if you want any change from the $10 note you gave him.
    You are also likely to have less choice in the US. And New York always looks like it’s falling to bits, at least to me.

    But I thought them interesting comments.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,906
    darkage said:

    I think it is pretty clear that these hostile powers support propoganda operations on both sides - 'woke' and 'anti-woke'. The aim really is to just confuse and alienate populations, reducing the coherance of the state, and setting the ground for other forms of political manipulation, it is a form of psychological warfare that is potentially going to get worse with AI.

    I'm certain that the 2024 US presidential election is going to be a new high-water mark for disinformation, largely due to the increased volume and fidelity that new AI tools will enable.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,250

    Foxy said:

    When did absolutely everybody first start disliking Jews and giving them such a bad press? Does it start with the Jews having Jesus killed?

    Careful, that is another antisemitic trope. Two of them in fact. That Jews killed Jesus and more fundamentally that Jews did anything to deserve universal antisemitism.
    Indeed, it was the Romans. We are supposed to skip over that because Constantine turned the Romans into goodies.
    “Careful, that is another antisemitic trope. That Jews killed Jesus”
    “Indeed, it was the Romans. We are supposed to skip over that because Constantine turned the Romans into goodies”

    Obviously I don’t expect much understanding from DecrepitJohn, who like 98% of PB likely not a Christian. But I am very surprised you say this Foxy. I am surprised we are so far apart on the passion 🥺
    The Passion According To MoonRabbit

    Jesus was a Jew from a time of sectarian turbulence. Jesus and his followers launched what can be called a terror attack on the Temple and the authority of high priests running the Jewish council, the headline was attacking money lenders and saying they were defiling a holy place. I see this attack like the reformation - Jesus argument is money lenders charged rip off rates, the sacrificial dove sellers were a rip off, and the need to pay for ritual bathing to get clean to pray a rip off too. leading priests and scribes (law writers) lived lavish lifestyles, they liked having this income. The ruling council were pissed off and feeling humiliated by Jesus attack on their authority.
    Joseph (Of Aramathea) was at hastily called elite council meeting, representing his sect, but out voted on decision to arrest Jesus and have him killed. Some on ruling council happy Jesus appeared to over step the mark; Pharisee, a strict religious sect of Jews, didn’t like Jesus message, it wasn’t orthodox preaching as he was mingling Greek philosophy particularly from Plato, for example The Sermon On The Mount, with the Torah forming not so strict Jewish code, a more hellenised message for Jews.
    Jesus arrest by the Temple Guards (Jews) was a sword fight, indeed lead Jew arresting Jesus lost an ear (AN Wilson reckons this player went on to become Paul).
    Jesus was tried by the Jewish court, the charge was Blasphemy for claiming to be King of the Jews.
    to the Jewish ruling council, Jesus deliberately rode into town on a donkey, fulfilling a prophecy in the Hebrew Bible about the coming of the Messiah, and was mobbed by an adoring crowd. The court found Jesus guilty. But the court didn’t have the power to execute people. Jesus was handed over to the Romans with strong recommendation from the Jewish Council to execute him for sedition.
    The Roman occupiers had their own considerations. Passover always difficult time for running the province, crowds piling in. Pilate, however you characterise him, had career in Roman Empire depending on running the province smooth and efficiently, had 6,000 soldiers on hand to keep the peace in a city now bulging with 2.5 million Jews, and religious authorities, whose cooperation he needed for a quiet life, wanted him to execute Jesus, supported by angry mob possibly organised by Temple authorities, if strict in their faith, like Pharisee, happy to come baying for Jesus' blood. Jesus had public support but Pharisee could get a lot of supporters out demonstrating too. It all leads to an obvious conclusion except the question, did Jesus come here knowing it would lead to this or not.
    It wasn’t a terror attack. He simply overturned some tables.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    malcolmg said:

    Nigelb said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/23491345.john-curtice-support-royals-all-time-low-ahead-coronation/?ref=ebbn

    'SUPPORT for the royal family is at an “all time low”, Professor John Curtice has said.

    The polling expert’s assessment comes just one week ahead of King Charles’s coronation, which hit the headlines on Sunday after a call was put out for millions to give a “great cry” of allegiance during the ceremony.

    Speaking to GB News, Curtice said that the data was increasingly suggesting that younger generations were moving away from supporting the royals.

    “Support for them is now at an all time low and frankly it declined during the Queen Elizabeth era,” Curtice said.'

    Hmm. I don't think demands for a loyalty oath will help.

    Wokery.

    It's deeply fashionable now to be against Britain and any symbols of Britain on the basis that they represent "colonialism", "racism" and "slavery".

    Of course, this sentiment will be funded, advocated and encouraged by our enemies in China and Russia; they are hoping that if we lose enough self-confidence we might bring it all down on top of us ourselves.

    They might be right.
    Russia, and Russian propaganda being well known for ‘wokery’.
    Strange universe you sometimes inhabit.
    Actually he has a point.
    Russia is willing to fund any movement that looks like it can disrupt UK stability.
    That has certainly included Scottish independence in recent times, but also Brexit.

    They are equal opportunity disrupters.
    WTF did they have to do with Scottish Independence, must have plucked that one out of your arse.
    I seem to recall Salmon’s turn on RT, for one.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,320

    Just met some American friends who have returned from a trip to Britain, the first in a long while.

    Apparently the country is now “notably shabby”, and “falling to bits”, and “beer prices now rival New York”.

    The clowns never went to a Wetherspoons then. Assume the dumb clucks were in London getting ripped off.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited April 2023
    malcolmg said:

    Just met some American friends who have returned from a trip to Britain, the first in a long while.

    Apparently the country is now “notably shabby”, and “falling to bits”, and “beer prices now rival New York”.

    The clowns never went to a Wetherspoons then. Assume the dumb clucks were in London getting ripped off.
    London and Herefordshire apparently.
    It’s true that I doubt they went to Wetherspoons.

    Personally, I used to be a big fan of the Spoon, but I boycotted them since 2016 and won’t go back.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    Just met some American friends who have returned from a trip to Britain, the first in a long while.

    Apparently the country is now “notably shabby”, and “falling to bits”, and “beer prices now rival New York”.

    Hard disagree. London’s looking a lot better. And how you can call the Elizabeth Line “shabby” living on the hell that is the NY Metro means you must be on crack.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    TimS said:

    KK now leading Erdogan in first round Turkish polls:

    https://twitter.com/humeyra_pamuk/status/1652682379134132226?s=46

    Logic suggests Erdogan will make it though, one way or another.

    I note Erdogan pulled the classic autocrat gambit of being able to have more than two terms because the constitution changed so earlier ones dont count. I dont know why they bother with at it means thrtes effectively no limit anyway so just say so.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    DougSeal said:

    Just met some American friends who have returned from a trip to Britain, the first in a long while.

    Apparently the country is now “notably shabby”, and “falling to bits”, and “beer prices now rival New York”.

    Hard disagree. London’s looking a lot better. And how you can call the Elizabeth Line “shabby” living on the hell that is the NY Metro means you must be on crack.
    The NY Metro is a hell-scape, but since Covid, enjoyably empty much of the time.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Just met some American friends who have returned from a trip to Britain, the first in a long while.

    Apparently the country is now “notably shabby”, and “falling to bits”, and “beer prices now rival New York”.

    I disagree with their assessment. Britain is less shabby than it's been for a long time, especially in London, with the Elizabeth Line, etc.
    Round here, the roads are in shite order (pot holes like bomb craters!) footpaths and verges are overgrown and fly tipping is out of control. I drove down the A46 last week from my village to the M1 and was appalled at how the embankments were festooned with litter, packaging, takeaway cartons and bits of car. Chaz should just have a quiet knees up with his family and bung my local council some cash to pay for a clean up!
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,998
    Speaking of hats, it's odd that so practical an item has fallen so far in the US. (My father, a farmer who did not finish high school, wore a hat on formal occasions, as most men did, back then.) Now, when I see hats, as opposed to caps, they are usually worn by older east Asian women. Black women probably still wear them when they attend church.

    Baseball fans, as late as the 1950s, usually wore hats to games, though some poorer men wore Andy Capp style caps.

    I've seen claims that JFK was partly responsible for the shift away from hats for men -- and I recall that organized hatmakers asked him to wear hats more often to help them out.

    (I've been thinking of getting Kraken baseball cap -- whether or not they win today.)
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,250

    Village chipper has some sad looking union flag pennants hanging from the ceiling. I do wonder if half-arsed will be *the* look this coronation.

    Seriously though, the notion that we all sit patriotically around the telly and chant a pledge of fealty at the correct time is the most absurd thing I have heard in ages.

    Because that’s not the *actual* notion

    The order of service instructs those *in the abbey* to recite the pledge. Those at home can if they want to
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,601
    Andy_JS said:

    Just met some American friends who have returned from a trip to Britain, the first in a long while.

    Apparently the country is now “notably shabby”, and “falling to bits”, and “beer prices now rival New York”.

    I disagree with their assessment. Britain is less shabby than it's been for a long time, especially in London, with the Elizabeth Line, etc.
    As always there are some parts which are shabby and in decline and other parts which are new and improving.

    Processes of change affect different things in different ways as the world in general changes.

    Its pretty undeniable that, for example, most town centre shopping areas are in decline but pubs and restaurants are improving.

    Likewise much of middle suburbia is in decline but the old industrial areas are much improved.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Never mind hats, what about ties?
    I had to wear one every day in my first consulting job, and now I can’t actually remember the last time I put one on.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,320

    malcolmg said:

    Just met some American friends who have returned from a trip to Britain, the first in a long while.

    Apparently the country is now “notably shabby”, and “falling to bits”, and “beer prices now rival New York”.

    The clowns never went to a Wetherspoons then. Assume the dumb clucks were in London getting ripped off.
    London and Herefordshire apparently.
    It’s true that I doubt they went to Wetherspoons.

    Personally, I used to be a big fan of the Spoon, but I boycotted them since 2016 and won’t go back.
    They are hard to beat for a good pint , lots of choice , great prices but tend to be big barns most of time.
    Whole UK is in doldrums but I suspect most of USA is the same apart from the elite
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,250

    Just met some American friends who have returned from a trip to Britain, the first in a long while.

    Apparently the country is now “notably shabby”, and “falling to bits”, and “beer prices now rival New York”.

    Ever since you moved to New York you’ve posted screeds on how run down the UK is.

    I wonder who you are trying to convince? Yourself?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,504
    edited April 2023

    Foxy said:

    When did absolutely everybody first start disliking Jews and giving them such a bad press? Does it start with the Jews having Jesus killed?

    Careful, that is another antisemitic trope. Two of them in fact. That Jews killed Jesus and more fundamentally that Jews did anything to deserve universal antisemitism.
    Indeed, it was the Romans. We are supposed to skip over that because Constantine turned the Romans into goodies.
    “Careful, that is another antisemitic trope. That Jews killed Jesus”
    “Indeed, it was the Romans. We are supposed to skip over that because Constantine turned the Romans into goodies”

    Obviously I don’t expect much understanding from DecrepitJohn, who like 98% of PB likely not a Christian. But I am very surprised you say this Foxy. I am surprised we are so far apart on the passion 🥺
    The Passion According To MoonRabbit

    Jesus was a Jew from a time of sectarian turbulence. Jesus and his followers launched what can be called a terror attack on the Temple and the authority of high priests running the Jewish council, the headline was attacking money lenders and saying they were defiling a holy place. I see this attack like the reformation - Jesus argument is money lenders charged rip off rates, the sacrificial dove sellers were a rip off, and the need to pay for ritual bathing to get clean to pray a rip off too. leading priests and scribes (law writers) lived lavish lifestyles, they liked having this income. The ruling council were pissed off and feeling humiliated by Jesus attack on their authority.
    Joseph (Of Aramathea) was at hastily called elite council meeting, representing his sect, but out voted on decision to arrest Jesus and have him killed. Some on ruling council happy Jesus appeared to over step the mark; Pharisee, a strict religious sect of Jews, didn’t like Jesus message, it wasn’t orthodox preaching as he was mingling Greek philosophy particularly from Plato, for example The Sermon On The Mount, with the Torah forming not so strict Jewish code, a more hellenised message for Jews.
    Jesus arrest by the Temple Guards (Jews) was a sword fight, indeed lead Jew arresting Jesus lost an ear (AN Wilson reckons this player went on to become Paul).
    Jesus was tried by the Jewish court, the charge was Blasphemy for claiming to be King of the Jews.
    to the Jewish ruling council, Jesus deliberately rode into town on a donkey, fulfilling a prophecy in the Hebrew Bible about the coming of the Messiah, and was mobbed by an adoring crowd. The court found Jesus guilty. But the court didn’t have the power to execute people. Jesus was handed over to the Romans with strong recommendation from the Jewish Council to execute him for sedition.
    The Roman occupiers had their own considerations. Passover always difficult time for running the province, crowds piling in. Pilate, however you characterise him, had career in Roman Empire depending on running the province smooth and efficiently, had 6,000 soldiers on hand to keep the peace in a city now bulging with 2.5 million Jews, and religious authorities, whose cooperation he needed for a quiet life, wanted him to execute Jesus, supported by angry mob possibly organised by Temple authorities, if strict in their faith, like Pharisee, happy to come baying for Jesus' blood. Jesus had public support but Pharisee could get a lot of supporters out demonstrating too. It all leads to an obvious conclusion except the question, did Jesus come here knowing it would lead to this or not.
    It wasn’t a terror attack. He simply overturned some tables.
    Was he and supporters armed? How did the guards react? No speech denouncing rip off bathing and dove prices?
  • Having discussed it with the boy and looked for a suitable alternative, we'd like to pledge allegiance to Felipe, King of Spain.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,998
    Oh, and Gardenwalker should be careful near the end of the summer in New York. You never know when another straw hat riot might break out there: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_Hat_Riot
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,717
    Sweden has announced plans to build the world’s first electrified motorway, allowing electric cars to charge themselves as they pass along its surface.

    The e-motorway, which is due to be completed in about two years, is part of wider efforts by Sweden to decarbonise the transport sector in response to a new EU law that requires new cars to have zero CO2 emissions from 2035.

    www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/04/30/sweden-build-worlds-first-electrified-motorway/
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    Just met some American friends who have returned from a trip to Britain, the first in a long while.

    Apparently the country is now “notably shabby”, and “falling to bits”, and “beer prices now rival New York”.

    Ever since you moved to New York you’ve posted screeds on how run down the UK is.

    I wonder who you are trying to convince? Yourself?
    It’s good to travel, you should try it some time.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,320

    Just met some American friends who have returned from a trip to Britain, the first in a long while.

    Apparently the country is now “notably shabby”, and “falling to bits”, and “beer prices now rival New York”.

    What are beer prices in New York ?
    supposedly about $8 so more expensive than most of UK other than south east and London. Good pint in Spoons be half that
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075
    Spot the one they missed out

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aohpHp1JuIA

    It's February 1974

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pG07CuEilqk

    Which had a different one to October 1974

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=miVErPmUV4Q
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Carnyx said:

    Sean_F said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/23491345.john-curtice-support-royals-all-time-low-ahead-coronation/?ref=ebbn

    'SUPPORT for the royal family is at an “all time low”, Professor John Curtice has said.

    The polling expert’s assessment comes just one week ahead of King Charles’s coronation, which hit the headlines on Sunday after a call was put out for millions to give a “great cry” of allegiance during the ceremony.

    Speaking to GB News, Curtice said that the data was increasingly suggesting that younger generations were moving away from supporting the royals.

    “Support for them is now at an all time low and frankly it declined during the Queen Elizabeth era,” Curtice said.'

    Hmm. I don't think demands for a loyalty oath will help.

    From the polling I've seen, it seems pretty solid to me.
    Well, what does Prof C know? He's only a prof of psephology.
    He's not god. Is it lower? Sure. Does that inevitably mean an end? Not really, it needs more than apathy.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083

    Never mind hats, what about ties?
    I had to wear one every day in my first consulting job, and now I can’t actually remember the last time I put one on.

    I wear one every work day.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,219
    Andy_JS said:

    Just met some American friends who have returned from a trip to Britain, the first in a long while.

    Apparently the country is now “notably shabby”, and “falling to bits”, and “beer prices now rival New York”.

    I disagree with their assessment. Britain is less shabby than it's been for a long time, especially in London, with the Elizabeth Line, etc.
    Grant you the Lizzie Line, but sometimes that just throws the creeping mediocrity of everything else into relief. How could it not be, when we've spent a decade or so not spending enough on maintenance?

    And an awful lot of town centres have an awful lot of empty or last resort shops in them.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,320

    Andy_JS said:

    Just met some American friends who have returned from a trip to Britain, the first in a long while.

    Apparently the country is now “notably shabby”, and “falling to bits”, and “beer prices now rival New York”.

    I disagree with their assessment. Britain is less shabby than it's been for a long time, especially in London, with the Elizabeth Line, etc.
    Round here, the roads are in shite order (pot holes like bomb craters!) footpaths and verges are overgrown and fly tipping is out of control. I drove down the A46 last week from my village to the M1 and was appalled at how the embankments were festooned with litter, packaging, takeaway cartons and bits of car. Chaz should just have a quiet knees up with his family and bung my local council some cash to pay for a clean up!
    TFS, they need to start making litter louts and criminals wear orange suits and prowl the highways of the UK picking up litter as a punishment
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,793

    Village chipper has some sad looking union flag pennants hanging from the ceiling. I do wonder if half-arsed will be *the* look this coronation.

    Seriously though, the notion that we all sit patriotically around the telly and chant a pledge of fealty at the correct time is the most absurd thing I have heard in ages.

    Because that’s not the *actual* notion

    The order of service instructs those *in the abbey* to recite the pledge. Those at home can if they want to
    That's pretty daft too, IMO.
  • malcolmg said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Just met some American friends who have returned from a trip to Britain, the first in a long while.

    Apparently the country is now “notably shabby”, and “falling to bits”, and “beer prices now rival New York”.

    I disagree with their assessment. Britain is less shabby than it's been for a long time, especially in London, with the Elizabeth Line, etc.
    Round here, the roads are in shite order (pot holes like bomb craters!) footpaths and verges are overgrown and fly tipping is out of control. I drove down the A46 last week from my village to the M1 and was appalled at how the embankments were festooned with litter, packaging, takeaway cartons and bits of car. Chaz should just have a quiet knees up with his family and bung my local council some cash to pay for a clean up!
    TFS, they need to start making litter louts and criminals wear orange suits and prowl the highways of the UK picking up litter as a punishment
    I'd vote for any party that advocated the death penalty for fly tippers. I genuinely hate people who do that, and I don't like to hate anyone.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    Having discussed it with the boy and looked for a suitable alternative, we'd like to pledge allegiance to Felipe, King of Spain.

    Ashley Giles?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,250

    Foxy said:

    When did absolutely everybody first start disliking Jews and giving them such a bad press? Does it start with the Jews having Jesus killed?

    Careful, that is another antisemitic trope. Two of them in fact. That Jews killed Jesus and more fundamentally that Jews did anything to deserve universal antisemitism.
    Indeed, it was the Romans. We are supposed to skip over that because Constantine turned the Romans into goodies.
    “Careful, that is another antisemitic trope. That Jews killed Jesus”
    “Indeed, it was the Romans. We are supposed to skip over that because Constantine turned the Romans into goodies”

    Obviously I don’t expect much understanding from DecrepitJohn, who like 98% of PB likely not a Christian. But I am very surprised you say this Foxy. I am surprised we are so far apart on the passion 🥺
    The Passion According To MoonRabbit

    Jesus was a Jew from a time of sectarian turbulence. Jesus and his followers launched what can be called a terror attack on the Temple and the authority of high priests running the Jewish council, the headline was attacking money lenders and saying they were defiling a holy place. I see this attack like the reformation - Jesus argument is money lenders charged rip off rates, the sacrificial dove sellers were a rip off, and the need to pay for ritual bathing to get clean to pray a rip off too. leading priests and scribes (law writers) lived lavish lifestyles, they liked having this income. The ruling council were pissed off and feeling humiliated by Jesus attack on their authority.
    Joseph (Of Aramathea) was at hastily called elite council meeting, representing his sect, but out voted on decision to arrest Jesus and have him killed. Some on ruling council happy Jesus appeared to over step the mark; Pharisee, a strict religious sect of Jews, didn’t like Jesus message, it wasn’t orthodox preaching as he was mingling Greek philosophy particularly from Plato, for example The Sermon On The Mount, with the Torah forming not so strict Jewish code, a more hellenised message for Jews.
    Jesus arrest by the Temple Guards (Jews) was a sword fight, indeed lead Jew arresting Jesus lost an ear (AN Wilson reckons this player went on to become Paul).
    Jesus was tried by the Jewish court, the charge was Blasphemy for claiming to be King of the Jews.
    to the Jewish ruling council, Jesus deliberately rode into town on a donkey, fulfilling a prophecy in the Hebrew Bible about the coming of the Messiah, and was mobbed by an adoring crowd. The court found Jesus guilty. But the court didn’t have the power to execute people. Jesus was handed over to the Romans with strong recommendation from the Jewish Council to execute him for sedition.
    The Roman occupiers had their own considerations. Passover always difficult time for running the province, crowds piling in. Pilate, however you characterise him, had career in Roman Empire depending on running the province smooth and efficiently, had 6,000 soldiers on hand to keep the peace in a city now bulging with 2.5 million Jews, and religious authorities, whose cooperation he needed for a quiet life, wanted him to execute Jesus, supported by angry mob possibly organised by Temple authorities, if strict in their faith, like Pharisee, happy to come baying for Jesus' blood. Jesus had public support but Pharisee could get a lot of supporters out demonstrating too. It all leads to an obvious conclusion except the question, did Jesus come here knowing it would lead to this or not.
    It wasn’t a terror attack. He simply overturned some tables.
    Was he and supporters armed? How did the guards react? No speech denouncing rip off bathing and dove prices?
    No - they were devout Jews at worship - they would not have been armed. He cast out those who bought and sold, overturned the tables of the moneylenders and those that sold doves. He said unto them “my house shall be called a house of prayer, but you have turned it into a den of thieves”

    Basically a Rabbi had a bit of a rant and chased some people out of the Temple. More speakers corner than Manchester arena.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Andy_JS said:

    Just met some American friends who have returned from a trip to Britain, the first in a long while.

    Apparently the country is now “notably shabby”, and “falling to bits”, and “beer prices now rival New York”.

    I disagree with their assessment. Britain is less shabby than it's been for a long time, especially in London, with the Elizabeth Line, etc.
    "Britain is less shabby than it's been for a long time". Are you kidding me?

  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,250

    Just met some American friends who have returned from a trip to Britain, the first in a long while.

    Apparently the country is now “notably shabby”, and “falling to bits”, and “beer prices now rival New York”.

    Ever since you moved to New York you’ve posted screeds on how run down the UK is.

    I wonder who you are trying to convince? Yourself?
    It’s good to travel, you should try it some time.
    I was in DC for some meetings this week, now back in Westminster. Next week is Italy and then back to the US. I hate shuttling around like this but needs must.


  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    edited April 2023
    kle4 said:

    Carnyx said:

    Sean_F said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.thenational.scot/news/23491345.john-curtice-support-royals-all-time-low-ahead-coronation/?ref=ebbn

    'SUPPORT for the royal family is at an “all time low”, Professor John Curtice has said.

    The polling expert’s assessment comes just one week ahead of King Charles’s coronation, which hit the headlines on Sunday after a call was put out for millions to give a “great cry” of allegiance during the ceremony.

    Speaking to GB News, Curtice said that the data was increasingly suggesting that younger generations were moving away from supporting the royals.

    “Support for them is now at an all time low and frankly it declined during the Queen Elizabeth era,” Curtice said.'

    Hmm. I don't think demands for a loyalty oath will help.

    From the polling I've seen, it seems pretty solid to me.
    Well, what does Prof C know? He's only a prof of psephology.
    He's not god. Is it lower? Sure. Does that inevitably mean an end? Not really, it needs more than apathy.
    He is, on PB. With some reason.

    As for it being lower - the trend is not the Royal supporter.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,250
    Cookie said:

    Village chipper has some sad looking union flag pennants hanging from the ceiling. I do wonder if half-arsed will be *the* look this coronation.

    Seriously though, the notion that we all sit patriotically around the telly and chant a pledge of fealty at the correct time is the most absurd thing I have heard in ages.

    Because that’s not the *actual* notion

    The order of service instructs those *in the abbey* to recite the pledge. Those at home can if they want to
    That's pretty daft too, IMO.
    The abbey’s fine. The bit about home seems superfluous. If someone wants to recite the pledge in the privacy of their own home all power to them. They don’t need permission

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,628

    Having discussed it with the boy and looked for a suitable alternative, we'd like to pledge allegiance to Felipe, King of Spain.

    Wouldn’t the king in Brussels be more fitting?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    geoffw said:

    Sweden has announced plans to build the world’s first electrified motorway, allowing electric cars to charge themselves as they pass along its surface.

    The e-motorway, which is due to be completed in about two years, is part of wider efforts by Sweden to decarbonise the transport sector in response to a new EU law that requires new cars to have zero CO2 emissions from 2035.

    www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/04/30/sweden-build-worlds-first-electrified-motorway/

    I had one when I was young. It was called Scalextric.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,989
    DougSeal said:

    Just met some American friends who have returned from a trip to Britain, the first in a long while.

    Apparently the country is now “notably shabby”, and “falling to bits”, and “beer prices now rival New York”.

    Hard disagree. London’s looking a lot better. And how you can call the Elizabeth Line “shabby” living on the hell that is the NY Metro means you must be on crack.
    I bet they were here during the full grey intermittently wet let down that was this April. London does indeed look incredibly tatty under grey skies in early spring, but it always had done.
  • .
    Carnyx said:

    geoffw said:

    Sweden has announced plans to build the world’s first electrified motorway, allowing electric cars to charge themselves as they pass along its surface.

    The e-motorway, which is due to be completed in about two years, is part of wider efforts by Sweden to decarbonise the transport sector in response to a new EU law that requires new cars to have zero CO2 emissions from 2035.

    www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/04/30/sweden-build-worlds-first-electrified-motorway/

    I had one when I was young. It was called Scalextric.
    Will they go airborne if you wang it too fast around one of those banked turns, or flip over if the construction crew don't press the tracks together fully?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838

    .

    Carnyx said:

    geoffw said:

    Sweden has announced plans to build the world’s first electrified motorway, allowing electric cars to charge themselves as they pass along its surface.

    The e-motorway, which is due to be completed in about two years, is part of wider efforts by Sweden to decarbonise the transport sector in response to a new EU law that requires new cars to have zero CO2 emissions from 2035.

    www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/04/30/sweden-build-worlds-first-electrified-motorway/

    I had one when I was young. It was called Scalextric.
    Will they go airborne if you wang it too fast around one of those banked turns, or flip over if the construction crew don't press the tracks together fully?
    TBF I believe IC cars do that too ...
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,989
    Gardenwalker is so wrong about 90s dance. We’re on to Children by Robert Miles and it absolutely suits the now overcast but nicely light is-it-warm-or-is-it-cool Sunday evening 30th April setting.
This discussion has been closed.