Biden is going for a second term – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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Fascinating episode of the tortoise “slow newscast” this week;
https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/the-slow-newscast/id1487320403
Bold journalism. Interesting snippet that Dubai has more British lawyers working there than anywhere else in the world, outside of the UK and HK.
Also, the first part of today’s episode of “the newsagents” is worth a listen.
Striking that the only papers Prince Harry isn’t suing are the guardian, FT and telegraph.0 -
Now he says he did know about the motorhome.
What an absolute shitshow.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-653858250 -
He’s working for new-media company The Blaze.viewcode said:
What happened to Glenn Beck? Not that I want him back, so much as I could never believe how much he looked like Biff Tannen... 😀SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Is Fucker Carlson up to eating a bug on-air? Sure hope so!Leon said:
And then Fox will diercs1000 said:
And at the same time, James Murdoch will take the reigns at Fox, and drag it far to the left.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Trump should run with Ivanka and step down in two years so Ivanka becomes the first female president, and almost certainly the first Jewish one as well. For real lols, Ivanka should then switch parties back to Democrat.kle4 said:
Pence would do it if asked, he's such a tool. But it is an interesting question - who offers him the most? Politico were arguing the other day that the evangelical wing does not seem as powerful, in the sense that Trump retains plenty of backing there despite his personal values, so what gaps does Trump have in his arsenal?geoffw said:On VPs, who would be DJT's apprentice running mate. Not Pence, obvs.
Does he need a woman? Someone even more extreme than himself so he looks less extreme? A token boring person as a sop to those who don't like him but will vote GOP regardless?
He should go full House of Cards on this and have Ivanka as his running mate or something, or Don Jr.
Fox is not popular because it’s “fox” and “run by the murdochs”. It’s popular because it’s right wing populism done well
For which there is a HUGE market
If fox abandon that and become another CNN they will get as dismal viewing figures as CNN
It’s like when they tried to cancel Joe Rogan for being unwoke. Turned out people liked Joe rogan unwoke and didn’t want some simpering woke replacement, and Rogan just did his podcast in a new and equally successful way
BTW, whatever happened to Bill O'Reilly, who at one time was (also) a power in Wing-nutland?
https://www.theblaze.com/
Here is his take on Tucker Carlson. 1m views in 24 hours.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=uMAneRshtts0 -
He probably realised he was opening himself up to criminal charges if it didn't know what he was signing off.Taz said:Now he says he did know about the motorhome.
What an absolute shitshow.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-653858253 -
It’s under a live polis investigation. Say nothing, any of you, big bunch of idiots.williamglenn said:
He probably realised he was opening himself up to criminal charges if it didn't know what he was signing off.Taz said:Now he says he did know about the motorhome.
What an absolute shitshow.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-653858250 -
Thank you. Tried to watch but am on dodgy connection. Saw first minute or two. He looks like a bleached hipster Oliver Hardy. He still I think distinguishes himself from his cohort by virtue of having a personality and a twinkle.Sandpit said:
He’s working for new-media company The Blaze.viewcode said:
What happened to Glenn Beck? Not that I want him back, so much as I could never believe how much he looked like Biff Tannen... 😀SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Is Fucker Carlson up to eating a bug on-air? Sure hope so!Leon said:
And then Fox will diercs1000 said:
And at the same time, James Murdoch will take the reigns at Fox, and drag it far to the left.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Trump should run with Ivanka and step down in two years so Ivanka becomes the first female president, and almost certainly the first Jewish one as well. For real lols, Ivanka should then switch parties back to Democrat.kle4 said:
Pence would do it if asked, he's such a tool. But it is an interesting question - who offers him the most? Politico were arguing the other day that the evangelical wing does not seem as powerful, in the sense that Trump retains plenty of backing there despite his personal values, so what gaps does Trump have in his arsenal?geoffw said:On VPs, who would be DJT's apprentice running mate. Not Pence, obvs.
Does he need a woman? Someone even more extreme than himself so he looks less extreme? A token boring person as a sop to those who don't like him but will vote GOP regardless?
He should go full House of Cards on this and have Ivanka as his running mate or something, or Don Jr.
Fox is not popular because it’s “fox” and “run by the murdochs”. It’s popular because it’s right wing populism done well
For which there is a HUGE market
If fox abandon that and become another CNN they will get as dismal viewing figures as CNN
It’s like when they tried to cancel Joe Rogan for being unwoke. Turned out people liked Joe rogan unwoke and didn’t want some simpering woke replacement, and Rogan just did his podcast in a new and equally successful way
BTW, whatever happened to Bill O'Reilly, who at one time was (also) a power in Wing-nutland?
https://www.theblaze.com/
Here is his take on Tucker Carlson. 1m views in 24 hours.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=uMAneRshtts1 -
"Yeah, but all his mates were French" - Dave Lister.rcs1000 said:
Hang on, Sartre said "hell is other people"*, so he got at least one thing right.algarkirk said:
Transformational generative grammar (probably wrong). Being a leftie. Opposing Viet-Nam. Guru. Academic celeb rock-star status. Old. Public pontificator. Same camp as Foucould, Derrida, Marcuse, Sartre, PBers and others whose great thoughts won't survive time's filter paper.kle4 said:This will probably mark me as some kind of intellectual or cultural philistine, but what was Noam Chomsky famous for beack in the day? I see on twitter he's been vociferously claiming with a straight face Corbyn won the 2017 election, and people seem to be surprised.
He also wrote The Plague, which was an excellent book.
* Yes, yes, I know it was a character in No Exit.3 -
Some are good ideas, some aren't, but ultimately very few people are working toward a one world government, or even one world institution.tlg86 said:
Lol, fair point. Does rather show the pointlessness of these international institutions.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
If that's the criterion, they'd be out in the cold with the United States, as well as China, Russia, and India.tlg86 said:
Time to kick them out of international sport again.Malmesbury said:The ANC have announced that they are taking South Africa out of the International Criminal Court.
Looking good for Team GB.
Fifa is probably closest.0 -
Sigh, I suppose I'll be the one to propose that he was making a first draft statement when he said he didn't know then.williamglenn said:
He probably realised he was opening himself up to criminal charges if it didn't know what he was signing off.Taz said:Now he says he did know about the motorhome.
What an absolute shitshow.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-653858252 -
What about that generic sports team, huh.1
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Unless that's a joke I don't get, I think you'll find that Albert Camus wrote The Plague.rcs1000 said:
Hang on, Sartre said "hell is other people"*, so he got at least one thing right.algarkirk said:
Transformational generative grammar (probably wrong). Being a leftie. Opposing Viet-Nam. Guru. Academic celeb rock-star status. Old. Public pontificator. Same camp as Foucould, Derrida, Marcuse, Sartre, PBers and others whose great thoughts won't survive time's filter paper.kle4 said:This will probably mark me as some kind of intellectual or cultural philistine, but what was Noam Chomsky famous for beack in the day? I see on twitter he's been vociferously claiming with a straight face Corbyn won the 2017 election, and people seem to be surprised.
He also wrote The Plague, which was an excellent book.
* Yes, yes, I know it was a character in No Exit.2 -
Schrödinger’s Politician - ignorant and knowledgeable on the same subject at the same time.Taz said:Now he says he did know about the motorhome.
What an absolute shitshow.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-653858252 -
The point of course is while the LDs may be down a little on the 2019 number, the Conservatives are down a lot so it's a net 7.5% swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat (R&W had 8.5% on the national numbers). The swing from Conservative to Labour is 16%.Foxy said:
Though should be some good gains with the Tory vote substantially weaker.algarkirk said:
Not quite. In 2019 the LDs got 27.45% in these seats.Mexicanpete said:
The LD +4 share is interesting.TheScreamingEagles said:Labour leads by 2% in the Blue Wall. In 2019, Labour came THIRD in these seats.
Blue Wall Voting Intention (23 April):
Labour 34% (-3)
Conservative 32% (-3)
Liberal Democrat 24% (+4)
Green 5% (–)
Reform UK 5% (+1)
Other 1% (+1)
https://twitter.com/redfieldwilton/status/1650892423219019781?s=46
Go back to your constituencies and prepare for Government.
It's again worth repeating but the "Blue Wall" isn't just Con-LD marginals - there are plenty of Con-Lab marginals which just happen to be in the south. The willingness of LD and Labour voters to vote tactically puts further pressure on the Conservative position.
Taking this into the forthcoming local contests, you'd be looking at Medway and perhaps Bracknell Forest as places where Labour could make gains from the Conservatives in the south while tactical voting might deprive the Conservatives of control in South Gloucestershire.0 -
Even if it was a joke Camus still wrote The Plague.Northern_Al said:
Unless that's a joke I don't get, I think you'll find that Albert Camus wrote The Plague.rcs1000 said:
Hang on, Sartre said "hell is other people"*, so he got at least one thing right.algarkirk said:
Transformational generative grammar (probably wrong). Being a leftie. Opposing Viet-Nam. Guru. Academic celeb rock-star status. Old. Public pontificator. Same camp as Foucould, Derrida, Marcuse, Sartre, PBers and others whose great thoughts won't survive time's filter paper.kle4 said:This will probably mark me as some kind of intellectual or cultural philistine, but what was Noam Chomsky famous for beack in the day? I see on twitter he's been vociferously claiming with a straight face Corbyn won the 2017 election, and people seem to be surprised.
He also wrote The Plague, which was an excellent book.
* Yes, yes, I know it was a character in No Exit.2 -
Ok this is a long shot* - promised to buy my Brother a Ferrari Dino 246 GT for his 60th.
Can't afford the real thing so who makes the best die-cast model?
(*With PB you never know - someone might be an expert.)0 -
Got another 29 miles in today, both fuelled and hindered by my choice to go for Breton cidre. Unfortunately it only comes in bottles; so much heavier to carry, even after drinking. I got two kinds, both dry, one 5.5% the other 6%
The last of the ten bottles dragged me up to my destination: a tiny hamlet called Tlohan. I’ve already decided not to set off early tomorrow. I want to spend a few hours in this tranquil little haven
This is my pad for the night. I’m sitting outside with a glass of red and a plate of cheese and bread that the host just brought me. All I can hear is birdsong
I think it was worth the walk!
14 -
Kari Lake also says Hi!kjh said:
Good grief don't big Biden up. You were doing that to Carlson only the other week and look what happened to him.Leon said:
I’m not a fan of Biden - obvs - but he has been excellent on Ukraine. Indeed Afghanistan aside (a big aside) I think most of his best moments have been in foreign policy. He’s an old Cold War bro and it showsrcs1000 said:
He has somewhat redeemed himself in his steadfast support for Ukraine.Leon said:
Quite. It’s an enormous black mark against Biden. All too conveniently overlookedrcs1000 said:
And, of course, that emboldened Putin.Leon said:
Everyone saying Biden is surprisingly good seems to be forgetting the absolute catastrophe that was Afghanistan. It didn’t have to be that bad. One of the greatest foreign policy humiliations in recent American history. And by all accounts that WAS BidenNorthern_Al said:
Some of those are somewhat harsh given he's only been in power for two years.Leon said:
Afghanistan? Immigration? Opioids? Crime? Homelessness? Life expectancy?Northern_Al said:In defence of Biden, and setting aside his age. I agree with the view that he's under-rated.
Every time he's been tested, he's exceeded expectations. Whether it be mid-term elections, making major speeches, setting a clear course for the economy, or anything else I can think of he has, to coin a phrase, surprised on the upside.
He also has a quality that recent UK PMs have sorely lacked. He delegates a lot of stuff to intelligent, competent people who just get on with their jobs.
I just wish he were 50 rather than 80.
I’m sorry, Biden has only outperformed because expectations were SO low. On many metrics he has been quite poor. Or really poor
However he HAS done well on pure GDP - ironically by being quite Trumpian. And he’s shown genuine mettle and determination abroad - Ukraine, AUKUS, alliance building. There he has been genuinely good. Infinitely better than Trump
But he is 80 and already wobbly
I'm Joe Biden, and since I became President people are living longer. And lots of you have stopped taking drugs.
It’s one of the interesting aspects of the Netflix drama The Diplomat - which is obviously Democrat-leaning, I’d say - is how much severe critique is aimed at that debacle
He delegates well. He sends out good people. He doesn’t take stupid risks. He’s slowly marshalling a serious alliance against China. Etc
Trump would probably have abandoned Ukraine on day 11 -
Beyond jealous of this trip. Looks tremendous.BlancheLivermore said:Got another 29 miles in today, both fuelled and hindered by my choice to go for Breton cidre. Unfortunately it only comes in bottles; so much heavier to carry, even after drinking. I got two kinds, both dry, one 5.5% the other 6%
The last of the ten bottles dragged me up to my destination: a tiny hamlet called Tlohan. I’ve already decided not to set off early tomorrow. I want to spend a few hours in this tranquil little haven
This is my pad for the night. I’m sitting outside with a glass of red and a plate of cheese and bread that the host just brought me. All I can hear is birdsong
I think it was worth the walk!4 -
For a start, it's never a "Ferrari Dino", they were just called "Dino".Benpointer said:Ok this is a long shot* - promised to buy my Brother a Ferrari Dino 246 GT for his 60th.
Can't afford the real thing so who makes the best die-cast model?
(*With PB you never know - someone might be an expert.)
This is what you want.
https://www.tmcollectibles.com/en/dino-246-gt1 -
Evening all
I presume we've discussed the results of the British Virgin Islands General Election at length. As we all know, the Virgin Islands Party of Prime Minister Natalio Wheatley lost its majority in the House of Assembly ceding two seats to the Progressive Virgin Islands Movement (PVIM) led by Ronnie Skelton.
The VIP has 6 seats, the PVIM has 3 has does the National Democratic Party which hasn't really recovered from its 2019 defeat. The remaining seat went to Julian Fraser who leads Progressives United (PU).
Fraser had been LOTO and indeed the lone opposition MP as both PVIM and the NDP had worked with the last VIP government but with VIP losing its majority it all seems to depend on Fraser who was once a VIP supporter but called them "public enemy number one" in the election campaign. He's also reported to have offered himself as Prime Minister in a majority coalition with the PVIM and NDP parties.
As we know, what a politician says before the votes are counted and what they after are often diametrically opposed so it may be an interesting few days.1 -
Interesting stuff.stodge said:Evening all
I presume we've discussed the results of the British Virgin Islands General Election at length. As we all know, the Virgin Islands Party of Prime Minister Natalio Wheatley lost its majority in the House of Assembly ceding two seats to the Progressive Virgin Islands Movement (PVIM) led by Ronnie Skelton.
The VIP has 6 seats, the PVIM has 3 has does the National Democratic Party which hasn't really recovered from its 2019 defeat. The remaining seat went to Julian Fraser who leads Progressives United (PU).
Fraser had been LOTO and indeed the lone opposition MP as both PVIM and the NDP had worked with the last VIP government but with VIP losing its majority it all seems to depend on Fraser who was once a VIP supporter but called them "public enemy number one" in the election campaign. He's also reported to have offered himself as Prime Minister in a majority coalition with the PVIM and NDP parties.
As we know, what a politician says before the votes are counted and what they after are often diametrically opposed so it may be an interesting few days.
I imagine in that setup every vote of confidence is literally that - one vote!0 -
It also occurs to me that Revell make a 1/24 injection molded kit which can produce a very good result depending on one's level of skill with a Harder & Steenbeck. It's out of production but they show up on eBay from time to time.Benpointer said:Ok this is a long shot* - promised to buy my Brother a Ferrari Dino 246 GT for his 60th.
Can't afford the real thing so who makes the best die-cast model?
(*With PB you never know - someone might be an expert.)0 -
Including by US voters, who came to conclusion, long before Pentagon or State Dept or White House, that Afghanistan was Lost Cause.Leon said:
Quite. It’s an enormous black mark against Biden. All too conveniently overlookedrcs1000 said:
And, of course, that emboldened Putin.Leon said:
Everyone saying Biden is surprisingly good seems to be forgetting the absolute catastrophe that was Afghanistan. It didn’t have to be that bad. One of the greatest foreign policy humiliations in recent American history. And by all accounts that WAS BidenNorthern_Al said:
Some of those are somewhat harsh given he's only been in power for two years.Leon said:
Afghanistan? Immigration? Opioids? Crime? Homelessness? Life expectancy?Northern_Al said:In defence of Biden, and setting aside his age. I agree with the view that he's under-rated.
Every time he's been tested, he's exceeded expectations. Whether it be mid-term elections, making major speeches, setting a clear course for the economy, or anything else I can think of he has, to coin a phrase, surprised on the upside.
He also has a quality that recent UK PMs have sorely lacked. He delegates a lot of stuff to intelligent, competent people who just get on with their jobs.
I just wish he were 50 rather than 80.
I’m sorry, Biden has only outperformed because expectations were SO low. On many metrics he has been quite poor. Or really poor
However he HAS done well on pure GDP - ironically by being quite Trumpian. And he’s shown genuine mettle and determination abroad - Ukraine, AUKUS, alliance building. There he has been genuinely good. Infinitely better than Trump
But he is 80 and already wobbly
I'm Joe Biden, and since I became President people are living longer. And lots of you have stopped taking drugs.
It’s one of the interesting aspects of the Netflix drama The Diplomat - which is obviously Democrat-leaning, I’d say - is how much severe critique is aimed at that debacle
Only subsequent concern for most being to see the end of US involvement as soon as possible. Messy or not.
0 -
What a strange clarification
https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1650925555020169216?t=Z5dDvEOaMTXYuz9wvnxurg&s=190 -
Legalistic, as was suggested earlier.Big_G_NorthWales said:What a strange clarification
https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1650925555020169216?t=Z5dDvEOaMTXYuz9wvnxurg&s=19
Bit sticky IF he admitted that he was clueless about accounts he signed off on?0 -
I sort of knew that but thanks for the correction. That one's sold out, possibly fortunately, given the price(!)Dura_Ace said:
For a start, it's never a "Ferrari Dino", they were just called "Dino".Benpointer said:Ok this is a long shot* - promised to buy my Brother a Ferrari Dino 246 GT for his 60th.
Can't afford the real thing so who makes the best die-cast model?
(*With PB you never know - someone might be an expert.)
This is what you want.
https://www.tmcollectibles.com/en/dino-246-gt0 -
This party had reached rock bottom.Big_G_NorthWales said:What a strange clarification
https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1650925555020169216?t=Z5dDvEOaMTXYuz9wvnxurg&s=19
It is now drilling.1 -
There might well be, but it's wrong.williamglenn said:
Although there is a school of thought that the US has been far too timid in its level of support and that Biden is culpable for giving Putin the wrong signals at the summit in Geneva before the invasion.rcs1000 said:
He has somewhat redeemed himself in his steadfast support for Ukraine.Leon said:
Quite. It’s an enormous black mark against Biden. All too conveniently overlookedrcs1000 said:
And, of course, that emboldened Putin.Leon said:
Everyone saying Biden is surprisingly good seems to be forgetting the absolute catastrophe that was Afghanistan. It didn’t have to be that bad. One of the greatest foreign policy humiliations in recent American history. And by all accounts that WAS BidenNorthern_Al said:
Some of those are somewhat harsh given he's only been in power for two years.Leon said:
Afghanistan? Immigration? Opioids? Crime? Homelessness? Life expectancy?Northern_Al said:In defence of Biden, and setting aside his age. I agree with the view that he's under-rated.
Every time he's been tested, he's exceeded expectations. Whether it be mid-term elections, making major speeches, setting a clear course for the economy, or anything else I can think of he has, to coin a phrase, surprised on the upside.
He also has a quality that recent UK PMs have sorely lacked. He delegates a lot of stuff to intelligent, competent people who just get on with their jobs.
I just wish he were 50 rather than 80.
I’m sorry, Biden has only outperformed because expectations were SO low. On many metrics he has been quite poor. Or really poor
However he HAS done well on pure GDP - ironically by being quite Trumpian. And he’s shown genuine mettle and determination abroad - Ukraine, AUKUS, alliance building. There he has been genuinely good. Infinitely better than Trump
But he is 80 and already wobbly
I'm Joe Biden, and since I became President people are living longer. And lots of you have stopped taking drugs.
It’s one of the interesting aspects of the Netflix drama The Diplomat - which is obviously Democrat-leaning, I’d say - is how much severe critique is aimed at that debacle
The adminstration spent an entire year before the invasion warning Putin not to do it, and that there would be consequences.
Half of Europe didn't even believe there was a threat.
Short of placing troops in Ukraine, the US went about as far as they could.
There are certainly valid arguments that the US ought to have ramped up arms supplies faster post invasion.0 -
I think a lot of the pro Biden talk is people kidding themselves because the alternative is so utterly awful. If the Republicans had someone as dull and half-competent as Romney, then I think most people would freely admit that Biden is past it. Obviously all sane and decent people will hope Biden wins in 2024, but he's very much the least bad option not the sort of person who should be leader of the free world.2
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Perhaps you could aim for a REAL postie's holiday, by taking over the route of a rural Breton letter carrier?BlancheLivermore said:Got another 29 miles in today, both fuelled and hindered by my choice to go for Breton cidre. Unfortunately it only comes in bottles; so much heavier to carry, even after drinking. I got two kinds, both dry, one 5.5% the other 6%
The last of the ten bottles dragged me up to my destination: a tiny hamlet called Tlohan. I’ve already decided not to set off early tomorrow. I want to spend a few hours in this tranquil little haven
This is my pad for the night. I’m sitting outside with a glass of red and a plate of cheese and bread that the host just brought me. All I can hear is birdsong
I think it was worth the walk!0 -
Ho ho ho.Taz said:Now he says he did know about the motorhome.
What an absolute shitshow.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-65385825
The SNP deserve an award, it's like cousin Greg has taken charge of the SNP.0 -
Ditto Sarah Palin!Benpointer said:
Kari Lake also says Hi!kjh said:
Good grief don't big Biden up. You were doing that to Carlson only the other week and look what happened to him.Leon said:
I’m not a fan of Biden - obvs - but he has been excellent on Ukraine. Indeed Afghanistan aside (a big aside) I think most of his best moments have been in foreign policy. He’s an old Cold War bro and it showsrcs1000 said:
He has somewhat redeemed himself in his steadfast support for Ukraine.Leon said:
Quite. It’s an enormous black mark against Biden. All too conveniently overlookedrcs1000 said:
And, of course, that emboldened Putin.Leon said:
Everyone saying Biden is surprisingly good seems to be forgetting the absolute catastrophe that was Afghanistan. It didn’t have to be that bad. One of the greatest foreign policy humiliations in recent American history. And by all accounts that WAS BidenNorthern_Al said:
Some of those are somewhat harsh given he's only been in power for two years.Leon said:
Afghanistan? Immigration? Opioids? Crime? Homelessness? Life expectancy?Northern_Al said:In defence of Biden, and setting aside his age. I agree with the view that he's under-rated.
Every time he's been tested, he's exceeded expectations. Whether it be mid-term elections, making major speeches, setting a clear course for the economy, or anything else I can think of he has, to coin a phrase, surprised on the upside.
He also has a quality that recent UK PMs have sorely lacked. He delegates a lot of stuff to intelligent, competent people who just get on with their jobs.
I just wish he were 50 rather than 80.
I’m sorry, Biden has only outperformed because expectations were SO low. On many metrics he has been quite poor. Or really poor
However he HAS done well on pure GDP - ironically by being quite Trumpian. And he’s shown genuine mettle and determination abroad - Ukraine, AUKUS, alliance building. There he has been genuinely good. Infinitely better than Trump
But he is 80 and already wobbly
I'm Joe Biden, and since I became President people are living longer. And lots of you have stopped taking drugs.
It’s one of the interesting aspects of the Netflix drama The Diplomat - which is obviously Democrat-leaning, I’d say - is how much severe critique is aimed at that debacle
He delegates well. He sends out good people. He doesn’t take stupid risks. He’s slowly marshalling a serious alliance against China. Etc
Trump would probably have abandoned Ukraine on day 10 -
Sturgeon - party in good shape !!!!ydoethur said:
This party had reached rock bottom.Big_G_NorthWales said:What a strange clarification
https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1650925555020169216?t=Z5dDvEOaMTXYuz9wvnxurg&s=19
It is now drilling.
https://news.sky.com/story/nicola-sturgeon-says-snp-crisis-beyond-her-worst-nightmares-128661960 -
Will the real Sarah Palin, please stand up.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Ditto Sarah Palin!Benpointer said:
Kari Lake also says Hi!kjh said:
Good grief don't big Biden up. You were doing that to Carlson only the other week and look what happened to him.Leon said:
I’m not a fan of Biden - obvs - but he has been excellent on Ukraine. Indeed Afghanistan aside (a big aside) I think most of his best moments have been in foreign policy. He’s an old Cold War bro and it showsrcs1000 said:
He has somewhat redeemed himself in his steadfast support for Ukraine.Leon said:
Quite. It’s an enormous black mark against Biden. All too conveniently overlookedrcs1000 said:
And, of course, that emboldened Putin.Leon said:
Everyone saying Biden is surprisingly good seems to be forgetting the absolute catastrophe that was Afghanistan. It didn’t have to be that bad. One of the greatest foreign policy humiliations in recent American history. And by all accounts that WAS BidenNorthern_Al said:
Some of those are somewhat harsh given he's only been in power for two years.Leon said:
Afghanistan? Immigration? Opioids? Crime? Homelessness? Life expectancy?Northern_Al said:In defence of Biden, and setting aside his age. I agree with the view that he's under-rated.
Every time he's been tested, he's exceeded expectations. Whether it be mid-term elections, making major speeches, setting a clear course for the economy, or anything else I can think of he has, to coin a phrase, surprised on the upside.
He also has a quality that recent UK PMs have sorely lacked. He delegates a lot of stuff to intelligent, competent people who just get on with their jobs.
I just wish he were 50 rather than 80.
I’m sorry, Biden has only outperformed because expectations were SO low. On many metrics he has been quite poor. Or really poor
However he HAS done well on pure GDP - ironically by being quite Trumpian. And he’s shown genuine mettle and determination abroad - Ukraine, AUKUS, alliance building. There he has been genuinely good. Infinitely better than Trump
But he is 80 and already wobbly
I'm Joe Biden, and since I became President people are living longer. And lots of you have stopped taking drugs.
It’s one of the interesting aspects of the Netflix drama The Diplomat - which is obviously Democrat-leaning, I’d say - is how much severe critique is aimed at that debacle
He delegates well. He sends out good people. He doesn’t take stupid risks. He’s slowly marshalling a serious alliance against China. Etc
Trump would probably have abandoned Ukraine on day 1
0 -
Tina Fey on the left, Sarah Palin on the right.Sandpit said:
Will the real Sarah Palin, please stand up.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Ditto Sarah Palin!Benpointer said:
Kari Lake also says Hi!kjh said:
Good grief don't big Biden up. You were doing that to Carlson only the other week and look what happened to him.Leon said:
I’m not a fan of Biden - obvs - but he has been excellent on Ukraine. Indeed Afghanistan aside (a big aside) I think most of his best moments have been in foreign policy. He’s an old Cold War bro and it showsrcs1000 said:
He has somewhat redeemed himself in his steadfast support for Ukraine.Leon said:
Quite. It’s an enormous black mark against Biden. All too conveniently overlookedrcs1000 said:
And, of course, that emboldened Putin.Leon said:
Everyone saying Biden is surprisingly good seems to be forgetting the absolute catastrophe that was Afghanistan. It didn’t have to be that bad. One of the greatest foreign policy humiliations in recent American history. And by all accounts that WAS BidenNorthern_Al said:
Some of those are somewhat harsh given he's only been in power for two years.Leon said:
Afghanistan? Immigration? Opioids? Crime? Homelessness? Life expectancy?Northern_Al said:In defence of Biden, and setting aside his age. I agree with the view that he's under-rated.
Every time he's been tested, he's exceeded expectations. Whether it be mid-term elections, making major speeches, setting a clear course for the economy, or anything else I can think of he has, to coin a phrase, surprised on the upside.
He also has a quality that recent UK PMs have sorely lacked. He delegates a lot of stuff to intelligent, competent people who just get on with their jobs.
I just wish he were 50 rather than 80.
I’m sorry, Biden has only outperformed because expectations were SO low. On many metrics he has been quite poor. Or really poor
However he HAS done well on pure GDP - ironically by being quite Trumpian. And he’s shown genuine mettle and determination abroad - Ukraine, AUKUS, alliance building. There he has been genuinely good. Infinitely better than Trump
But he is 80 and already wobbly
I'm Joe Biden, and since I became President people are living longer. And lots of you have stopped taking drugs.
It’s one of the interesting aspects of the Netflix drama The Diplomat - which is obviously Democrat-leaning, I’d say - is how much severe critique is aimed at that debacle
He delegates well. He sends out good people. He doesn’t take stupid risks. He’s slowly marshalling a serious alliance against China. Etc
Trump would probably have abandoned Ukraine on day 10 -
You're confusing a nowcast with a forecast.TheScreamingEagles said:
Which is pretty shit for Sunak considering the profile of these seats.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And Sunak leads Starmer by 6% apparentlyDougSeal said:
SKS fans please...oh forget it....TheScreamingEagles said:Labour leads by 2% in the Blue Wall. In 2019, Labour came THIRD in these seats.
Blue Wall Voting Intention (23 April):
Labour 34% (-3)
Conservative 32% (-3)
Liberal Democrat 24% (+4)
Green 5% (–)
Reform UK 5% (+1)
Other 1% (+1)
https://twitter.com/redfieldwilton/status/1650892423219019781?s=46
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1650894993442177025?t=MDUWdictIBgygf4JPE9Cyw&s=19
This is simply polling - except it polls a certain group of seats (that alone will give it a higher MoE anyway) than a weighted national poll.
It will have all the issues with Con vote share being depressed by WNV and DKs due to their being no imminent GE.3 -
Is the right answer, one of the all-time great impressions.TheScreamingEagles said:
Tina Fey on the left, Sarah Palin on the right.Sandpit said:
Will the real Sarah Palin, please stand up.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Ditto Sarah Palin!Benpointer said:
Kari Lake also says Hi!kjh said:
Good grief don't big Biden up. You were doing that to Carlson only the other week and look what happened to him.Leon said:
I’m not a fan of Biden - obvs - but he has been excellent on Ukraine. Indeed Afghanistan aside (a big aside) I think most of his best moments have been in foreign policy. He’s an old Cold War bro and it showsrcs1000 said:
He has somewhat redeemed himself in his steadfast support for Ukraine.Leon said:
Quite. It’s an enormous black mark against Biden. All too conveniently overlookedrcs1000 said:
And, of course, that emboldened Putin.Leon said:
Everyone saying Biden is surprisingly good seems to be forgetting the absolute catastrophe that was Afghanistan. It didn’t have to be that bad. One of the greatest foreign policy humiliations in recent American history. And by all accounts that WAS BidenNorthern_Al said:
Some of those are somewhat harsh given he's only been in power for two years.Leon said:
Afghanistan? Immigration? Opioids? Crime? Homelessness? Life expectancy?Northern_Al said:In defence of Biden, and setting aside his age. I agree with the view that he's under-rated.
Every time he's been tested, he's exceeded expectations. Whether it be mid-term elections, making major speeches, setting a clear course for the economy, or anything else I can think of he has, to coin a phrase, surprised on the upside.
He also has a quality that recent UK PMs have sorely lacked. He delegates a lot of stuff to intelligent, competent people who just get on with their jobs.
I just wish he were 50 rather than 80.
I’m sorry, Biden has only outperformed because expectations were SO low. On many metrics he has been quite poor. Or really poor
However he HAS done well on pure GDP - ironically by being quite Trumpian. And he’s shown genuine mettle and determination abroad - Ukraine, AUKUS, alliance building. There he has been genuinely good. Infinitely better than Trump
But he is 80 and already wobbly
I'm Joe Biden, and since I became President people are living longer. And lots of you have stopped taking drugs.
It’s one of the interesting aspects of the Netflix drama The Diplomat - which is obviously Democrat-leaning, I’d say - is how much severe critique is aimed at that debacle
He delegates well. He sends out good people. He doesn’t take stupid risks. He’s slowly marshalling a serious alliance against China. Etc
Trump would probably have abandoned Ukraine on day 1
I was also looking for a comparison of Lisa Ann, but that one was a little too obvious!0 -
And when he does talk, he talks stupid shite.rcs1000 said:
The interesting difference is that Trump talked tough, but then got rid of all the Chinese sanctions.williamglenn said:
It's interesting how on China and America first economic policies, he's putting Trumpism into practice.Anabobazina said:
Biden is arguably the most underrated leader of modern times.LostPassword said:Biden has been continually underrated and continues to be so. Bearing in mind that the likely GOP nominee will be Trump, only three years younger, and I don't see age becoming a factor, unless one of the two of them hits a health problem in the next 18 and a bit months.
I don't think Kamala is going anywhere. She balances the ticket for the Democrat made in useful ways for Biden, and the people on the Democrat side who'd speculate about forcing an aged President to retire midway through their second term will be dissuaded from doing so by her presence as VP.
While Biden speaks very little, and has been pretty resolute in stopping tech transfer.
(I'm not a fan of banning TikTok, mind. Just on basic freedom grounds.)
I agree his actions are louder than his words.0 -
Lisa Ann? I am shocked at you.Sandpit said:
Is the right answer. I was also looking for a comparison of Lisa Ann, but that was a little too obvious!TheScreamingEagles said:
Tina Fey on the left, Sarah Palin on the right.Sandpit said:
Will the real Sarah Palin, please stand up.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Ditto Sarah Palin!Benpointer said:
Kari Lake also says Hi!kjh said:
Good grief don't big Biden up. You were doing that to Carlson only the other week and look what happened to him.Leon said:
I’m not a fan of Biden - obvs - but he has been excellent on Ukraine. Indeed Afghanistan aside (a big aside) I think most of his best moments have been in foreign policy. He’s an old Cold War bro and it showsrcs1000 said:
He has somewhat redeemed himself in his steadfast support for Ukraine.Leon said:
Quite. It’s an enormous black mark against Biden. All too conveniently overlookedrcs1000 said:
And, of course, that emboldened Putin.Leon said:
Everyone saying Biden is surprisingly good seems to be forgetting the absolute catastrophe that was Afghanistan. It didn’t have to be that bad. One of the greatest foreign policy humiliations in recent American history. And by all accounts that WAS BidenNorthern_Al said:
Some of those are somewhat harsh given he's only been in power for two years.Leon said:
Afghanistan? Immigration? Opioids? Crime? Homelessness? Life expectancy?Northern_Al said:In defence of Biden, and setting aside his age. I agree with the view that he's under-rated.
Every time he's been tested, he's exceeded expectations. Whether it be mid-term elections, making major speeches, setting a clear course for the economy, or anything else I can think of he has, to coin a phrase, surprised on the upside.
He also has a quality that recent UK PMs have sorely lacked. He delegates a lot of stuff to intelligent, competent people who just get on with their jobs.
I just wish he were 50 rather than 80.
I’m sorry, Biden has only outperformed because expectations were SO low. On many metrics he has been quite poor. Or really poor
However he HAS done well on pure GDP - ironically by being quite Trumpian. And he’s shown genuine mettle and determination abroad - Ukraine, AUKUS, alliance building. There he has been genuinely good. Infinitely better than Trump
But he is 80 and already wobbly
I'm Joe Biden, and since I became President people are living longer. And lots of you have stopped taking drugs.
It’s one of the interesting aspects of the Netflix drama The Diplomat - which is obviously Democrat-leaning, I’d say - is how much severe critique is aimed at that debacle
He delegates well. He sends out good people. He doesn’t take stupid risks. He’s slowly marshalling a serious alliance against China. Etc
Trump would probably have abandoned Ukraine on day 1
#Nailin'Palin0 -
Or vice versa.TheScreamingEagles said:
Tina Fey on the left, Sarah Palin on the right.Sandpit said:
Will the real Sarah Palin, please stand up.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Ditto Sarah Palin!Benpointer said:
Kari Lake also says Hi!kjh said:
Good grief don't big Biden up. You were doing that to Carlson only the other week and look what happened to him.Leon said:
I’m not a fan of Biden - obvs - but he has been excellent on Ukraine. Indeed Afghanistan aside (a big aside) I think most of his best moments have been in foreign policy. He’s an old Cold War bro and it showsrcs1000 said:
He has somewhat redeemed himself in his steadfast support for Ukraine.Leon said:
Quite. It’s an enormous black mark against Biden. All too conveniently overlookedrcs1000 said:
And, of course, that emboldened Putin.Leon said:
Everyone saying Biden is surprisingly good seems to be forgetting the absolute catastrophe that was Afghanistan. It didn’t have to be that bad. One of the greatest foreign policy humiliations in recent American history. And by all accounts that WAS BidenNorthern_Al said:
Some of those are somewhat harsh given he's only been in power for two years.Leon said:
Afghanistan? Immigration? Opioids? Crime? Homelessness? Life expectancy?Northern_Al said:In defence of Biden, and setting aside his age. I agree with the view that he's under-rated.
Every time he's been tested, he's exceeded expectations. Whether it be mid-term elections, making major speeches, setting a clear course for the economy, or anything else I can think of he has, to coin a phrase, surprised on the upside.
He also has a quality that recent UK PMs have sorely lacked. He delegates a lot of stuff to intelligent, competent people who just get on with their jobs.
I just wish he were 50 rather than 80.
I’m sorry, Biden has only outperformed because expectations were SO low. On many metrics he has been quite poor. Or really poor
However he HAS done well on pure GDP - ironically by being quite Trumpian. And he’s shown genuine mettle and determination abroad - Ukraine, AUKUS, alliance building. There he has been genuinely good. Infinitely better than Trump
But he is 80 and already wobbly
I'm Joe Biden, and since I became President people are living longer. And lots of you have stopped taking drugs.
It’s one of the interesting aspects of the Netflix drama The Diplomat - which is obviously Democrat-leaning, I’d say - is how much severe critique is aimed at that debacle
He delegates well. He sends out good people. He doesn’t take stupid risks. He’s slowly marshalling a serious alliance against China. Etc
Trump would probably have abandoned Ukraine on day 10 -
Another mistake.Wulfrun_Phil said:
The important figure in these seats is the Conservative share. Down 18% on the 50% they got at the GE. That's because half of those seats are LD targets, half are Lab targets. In very few of those seats are both Lab and the LDs in serious contention, and so the tactical voting choices should be obvious. So you can expect the Lab and LD votes to be highly concentrated in their target seats, such that one or the other is generally well ahead of the 32% average Con vote which has to be more evenly spread.TheScreamingEagles said:Labour leads by 2% in the Blue Wall. In 2019, Labour came THIRD in these seats.
Blue Wall Voting Intention (23 April):
Labour 34% (-3)
Conservative 32% (-3)
Liberal Democrat 24% (+4)
Green 5% (–)
Reform UK 5% (+1)
Other 1% (+1)
https://twitter.com/redfieldwilton/status/1650892423219019781?s=46
In a GE the Conservatives won't be down 18%. They may be down 8 or 9% but not 18%.
Don't nowcast.2 -
Clarification in the Sir Humphrey meaning of the word, I suspect.Big_G_NorthWales said:What a strange clarification
https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1650925555020169216?t=Z5dDvEOaMTXYuz9wvnxurg&s=190 -
What else could Biden have done? The twenty year, trillion dollar project had failed and was politically exhausted.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Including by US voters, who came to conclusion, long before Pentagon or State Dept or White House, that Afghanistan was Lost Cause.Leon said:
Quite. It’s an enormous black mark against Biden. All too conveniently overlookedrcs1000 said:
And, of course, that emboldened Putin.Leon said:
Everyone saying Biden is surprisingly good seems to be forgetting the absolute catastrophe that was Afghanistan. It didn’t have to be that bad. One of the greatest foreign policy humiliations in recent American history. And by all accounts that WAS BidenNorthern_Al said:
Some of those are somewhat harsh given he's only been in power for two years.Leon said:
Afghanistan? Immigration? Opioids? Crime? Homelessness? Life expectancy?Northern_Al said:In defence of Biden, and setting aside his age. I agree with the view that he's under-rated.
Every time he's been tested, he's exceeded expectations. Whether it be mid-term elections, making major speeches, setting a clear course for the economy, or anything else I can think of he has, to coin a phrase, surprised on the upside.
He also has a quality that recent UK PMs have sorely lacked. He delegates a lot of stuff to intelligent, competent people who just get on with their jobs.
I just wish he were 50 rather than 80.
I’m sorry, Biden has only outperformed because expectations were SO low. On many metrics he has been quite poor. Or really poor
However he HAS done well on pure GDP - ironically by being quite Trumpian. And he’s shown genuine mettle and determination abroad - Ukraine, AUKUS, alliance building. There he has been genuinely good. Infinitely better than Trump
But he is 80 and already wobbly
I'm Joe Biden, and since I became President people are living longer. And lots of you have stopped taking drugs.
It’s one of the interesting aspects of the Netflix drama The Diplomat - which is obviously Democrat-leaning, I’d say - is how much severe critique is aimed at that debacle
Only subsequent concern for most being to see the end of US involvement as soon as possible. Messy or not.0 -
There you go. Black looks good I think.Benpointer said:
I sort of knew that but thanks for the correction. That one's sold out, possibly fortunately, given the price(!)Dura_Ace said:
For a start, it's never a "Ferrari Dino", they were just called "Dino".Benpointer said:Ok this is a long shot* - promised to buy my Brother a Ferrari Dino 246 GT for his 60th.
Can't afford the real thing so who makes the best die-cast model?
(*With PB you never know - someone might be an expert.)
This is what you want.
https://www.tmcollectibles.com/en/dino-246-gt
https://tinyurl.com/5ayfyksb0 -
Well.
The Prince of Wales recently settled a phone hacking claim against publisher News Group Newspapers for a “very large sum”, the High Court has been told.
Prince William received the payment in 2020 after bringing a legal claim against the owner of the Sun and the News of the World.
Details of the settlement were revealed in legal documents submitted by his brother, the Duke of Sussex, as part of his legal battle with the same publisher.
He also claims in court documents that the late Queen was personally involved in a secret agreement between Buckingham Palace and Rupert Murdoch’s newspaper group.
The agreement meant members of the Royal family would not make legal claims over phone hacking until other court battles had been completed in exchange for an apology at a later date, it is alleged.
News Group Newspapers (NGN), the publisher of The Sun and the now-defunct News of the World, denied any secret agreement with the palace. A spokesman offered no comment. Buckingham Palace declined to comment.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/royal-family/2023/04/25/rupert-murdoch-news-group-prince-william-phone-hacking/0 -
At what point do you think they'll be polling as low as the Tories?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Sturgeon - party in good shape !!!!ydoethur said:
This party had reached rock bottom.Big_G_NorthWales said:What a strange clarification
https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1650925555020169216?t=Z5dDvEOaMTXYuz9wvnxurg&s=19
It is now drilling.
https://news.sky.com/story/nicola-sturgeon-says-snp-crisis-beyond-her-worst-nightmares-128661960 -
I admire his honesty.
Britons have to accept they have become poorer, a senior Bank of England official has said, claiming that an unwillingness to accept the nation’s downward mobility was fuelling inflation.
Huw Pill, Threadneedle Street’s chief economist, said: “[People] need to accept that they're worse off and stop trying to maintain their real spending power by bidding up prices, whether [through] higher wages or passing the energy costs through onto customers.”
Mr Pill said people and businesses were trying to maintain their standards of living and profits by either demanding higher pay or putting up prices.
However, he argued this was only likely to fuel inflation and compared the dynamic to a game of pass the parcel, where each player was unwilling to accept the burden of higher prices that make them poorer.
Mr Pill said: “That pass-the-parcel game that is going on here, that game is the one that’s generating inflation and that part of inflation can persist.”
He said there was a “reluctance to accept” that Britain had become collectively poorer but claimed it was an inevitable consequence of the surge in energy prices since the invasion of Ukraine.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/04/25/people-accept-poorer-bank-of-england-huw-pill/2 -
One can only hope most republicans stay out because they think the Primaries are a battle of the idiots, only for a vintage McCain clone to sweep in and take the nomination, saving his party.glw said:I think a lot of the pro Biden talk is people kidding themselves because the alternative is so utterly awful. If the Republicans had someone as dull and half-competent as Romney, then I think most people would freely admit that Biden is past it. Obviously all sane and decent people will hope Biden wins in 2024, but he's very much the least bad option not the sort of person who should be leader of the free world.
0 -
Such a pretty car.Theuniondivvie said:
There you go. Black looks good I think.Benpointer said:
I sort of knew that but thanks for the correction. That one's sold out, possibly fortunately, given the price(!)Dura_Ace said:
For a start, it's never a "Ferrari Dino", they were just called "Dino".Benpointer said:Ok this is a long shot* - promised to buy my Brother a Ferrari Dino 246 GT for his 60th.
Can't afford the real thing so who makes the best die-cast model?
(*With PB you never know - someone might be an expert.)
This is what you want.
https://www.tmcollectibles.com/en/dino-246-gt
https://tinyurl.com/5ayfyksb
Ferrari should bring back the Dino brand for a BEV sports car to fight the imminent 718 BEV.0 -
Also, Britins were never as rich as they thought they were in the furst place. We have been liviing beyond oir means since 2001. At some point we need to pay all that back.TheScreamingEagles said:I admire his honesty.
Britons have to accept they have become poorer, a senior Bank of England official has said, claiming that an unwillingness to accept the nation’s downward mobility was fuelling inflation.
Huw Pill, Threadneedle Street’s chief economist, said: “[People] need to accept that they're worse off and stop trying to maintain their real spending power by bidding up prices, whether [through] higher wages or passing the energy costs through onto customers.”
Mr Pill said people and businesses were trying to maintain their standards of living and profits by either demanding higher pay or putting up prices.
However, he argued this was only likely to fuel inflation and compared the dynamic to a game of pass the parcel, where each player was unwilling to accept the burden of higher prices that make them poorer.
Mr Pill said: “That pass-the-parcel game that is going on here, that game is the one that’s generating inflation and that part of inflation can persist.”
He said there was a “reluctance to accept” that Britain had become collectively poorer but claimed it was an inevitable consequence of the surge in energy prices since the invasion of Ukraine.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/04/25/people-accept-poorer-bank-of-england-huw-pill/4 -
You must be hurting as independence disappears in front of your eyesTheuniondivvie said:
At what point do you think they'll be polling as low as the Tories?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Sturgeon - party in good shape !!!!ydoethur said:
This party had reached rock bottom.Big_G_NorthWales said:What a strange clarification
https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1650925555020169216?t=Z5dDvEOaMTXYuz9wvnxurg&s=19
It is now drilling.
https://news.sky.com/story/nicola-sturgeon-says-snp-crisis-beyond-her-worst-nightmares-128661960 -
Don't hopecast.Casino_Royale said:
Another mistake.Wulfrun_Phil said:
The important figure in these seats is the Conservative share. Down 18% on the 50% they got at the GE. That's because half of those seats are LD targets, half are Lab targets. In very few of those seats are both Lab and the LDs in serious contention, and so the tactical voting choices should be obvious. So you can expect the Lab and LD votes to be highly concentrated in their target seats, such that one or the other is generally well ahead of the 32% average Con vote which has to be more evenly spread.TheScreamingEagles said:Labour leads by 2% in the Blue Wall. In 2019, Labour came THIRD in these seats.
Blue Wall Voting Intention (23 April):
Labour 34% (-3)
Conservative 32% (-3)
Liberal Democrat 24% (+4)
Green 5% (–)
Reform UK 5% (+1)
Other 1% (+1)
https://twitter.com/redfieldwilton/status/1650892423219019781?s=46
In a GE the Conservatives won't be down 18%. They may be down 8 or 9% but not 18%.
Don't nowcast.
Seriously, polls like this may or may not be accurate in the context of the next General Election but they are indicative of the Conservatives having lost perhaps a third of their 2019 vote and that's not a small number. The impact on the forthcoming local elections might be handwaved as being of little significance by some but the psychological impact of losing seats and councils on activists isn't without import.0 -
Labour's sewage day in Parliament seems to have provided the planned material.
https://twitter.com/HastingsRyeLab/status/1650907609619218438
Watch as our Conservative MP has to APOLOGISE to Labour for getting her facts wrong earlier today, before voting down Labour's plan to end the sewage scandal.1 -
The LDs got 27% in the Blue Wall seats in 2019, so are actually down 3% on what Swinson got there under DaveyMexicanpete said:
The LD +4 share is interesting.TheScreamingEagles said:Labour leads by 2% in the Blue Wall. In 2019, Labour came THIRD in these seats.
Blue Wall Voting Intention (23 April):
Labour 34% (-3)
Conservative 32% (-3)
Liberal Democrat 24% (+4)
Green 5% (–)
Reform UK 5% (+1)
Other 1% (+1)
https://twitter.com/redfieldwilton/status/1650892423219019781?s=46
Go back to your constituencies and prepare for Government.0 -
Quite amused that his dad was a used car salesman.Luckyguy1983 said:
Yes, he was impressive in that interview. I don't know why he took our side, and it doesn't really matter - perhaps there was an anti-fascist perspective that he was aligning with. It remains true that his words and actions in Government are of someone who regards the UK as both his province, and a disliked foe. And we have nobody on our side who will raise so much as an eyebrow, much less an objection. Sunak makes Boris look almost Thatcheresque in his defence of the national interest.kle4 said:
Didn't he back us fully over the Falklands, when others were being more wishy washy?Luckyguy1983 said:..
He also hates the UK, a neurosis that sadly has not mellowed with age. Combined with a biddable UK PM like Sunak (doubt Starmer will be a great improvement), his continued tenure is bad for us.Northern_Al said:In defence of Biden, and setting aside his age. I agree with the view that he's under-rated.
Every time he's been tested, he's exceeded expectations. Whether it be mid-term elections, making major speeches, setting a clear course for the economy, or anything else I can think of he has, to coin a phrase, surprised on the upside.
He also has a quality that recent UK PMs have sorely lacked. He delegates a lot of stuff to intelligent, competent people who just get on with their jobs.
I just wish he were 50 rather than 80.
Chose the right side over Nixon in Senate. Has benefited from one or two lucky episodes: forgivable.
Has enough in his personal history to have a few scars. Comes across as a decent human in dealing with other human beings when he does not have to, rather than a self-serving bastard as say Johnson or Clinton.
Seems to have a rather strange attachment to a cartoon Irish identity. But has crossed the coasts of the USA in his head which means a huge amount.
And has made a lot of good calls. Right side on gun violence, and road violence (maybe, eventually).
For now, I'll take Biden.0 -
Labour's sewage day backfired somewhatNigelb said:Labour's sewage day in Parliament seems to have provided the planned material.
https://twitter.com/HastingsRyeLab/status/1650907609619218438
Watch as our Conservative MP has to APOLOGISE to Labour for getting her facts wrong earlier today, before voting down Labour's plan to end the sewage scandal.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/labours-sewage-scheme-backfires/
1 -
A man was sentenced to six years in jail in Cork today, for the sexual assault of an 8 year old twenty years ago. I thought the story was worth sharing because his victim, Hannah Beresford had what I thought were some interesting and important things to say, in part about how these are viewed as "historical" cases.
Hussey's assault on Ms Beresford happened almost two decades ago. She heard it described in court recently as "historic". She returned to that description this afternoon.
"This is not history to me," she clarified. "This assault is an everyday fact of my life. It is no longer the largest force of my life, but that does not mean it is consigned to history."
Worth reading the full article.
https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2023/0425/1379116-hannah-beresford-statement/2 -
Second time round for SA.
https://twitter.com/RosieBirchard/status/1650909518086258707
"Ironically the legislation for SA to withdraw from the ICC after the Bashir affair had only just been withdrawn from Parliament – after the ANC decided at its December 2022 conference to reverse its decision of 2017 to withdraw from the court,"0 -
Video shows Wrexham players singing 'F*** the Tories' in McDonalds following historic win
https://twitter.com/WalesOnline/status/16501260027128791070 -
It isn't. It was because of the white majority then. Now it's the reverse and corruption seems endemic from the little I know.Sandpit said:
I guess we’re back to boycotting South Africa then. It’s the ‘80s all over again.kle4 said:
Well that's one way to not have an issue with the forthcoming Putin visit. Bit obvious though, looks simpering to him.Malmesbury said:The ANC have announced that they are taking South Africa out of the International Criminal Court.
0 -
Well that's the economy fucked, Labour landslide nailed on.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/04/25/uk-economy-optimism-recession-brexit-imf-sunak/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr
3 -
No guarantee of swingback.Casino_Royale said:
Another mistake.Wulfrun_Phil said:
The important figure in these seats is the Conservative share. Down 18% on the 50% they got at the GE. That's because half of those seats are LD targets, half are Lab targets. In very few of those seats are both Lab and the LDs in serious contention, and so the tactical voting choices should be obvious. So you can expect the Lab and LD votes to be highly concentrated in their target seats, such that one or the other is generally well ahead of the 32% average Con vote which has to be more evenly spread.TheScreamingEagles said:Labour leads by 2% in the Blue Wall. In 2019, Labour came THIRD in these seats.
Blue Wall Voting Intention (23 April):
Labour 34% (-3)
Conservative 32% (-3)
Liberal Democrat 24% (+4)
Green 5% (–)
Reform UK 5% (+1)
Other 1% (+1)
https://twitter.com/redfieldwilton/status/1650892423219019781?s=46
In a GE the Conservatives won't be down 18%. They may be down 8 or 9% but not 18%.
Don't nowcast.0 -
I'm not really paying too much attention to the people that have predicted 37 of the last 0 downfalls of the SNP and indy.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You must be hurting as independence disappears in front of your eyesTheuniondivvie said:
At what point do you think they'll be polling as low as the Tories?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Sturgeon - party in good shape !!!!ydoethur said:
This party had reached rock bottom.Big_G_NorthWales said:What a strange clarification
https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1650925555020169216?t=Z5dDvEOaMTXYuz9wvnxurg&s=19
It is now drilling.
https://news.sky.com/story/nicola-sturgeon-says-snp-crisis-beyond-her-worst-nightmares-12866196
But situation normal there.1 -
Can't be long before she is interviewed by the Rozzers. What sort of memory loss is she likely to suffer one wonders.?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Sturgeon - party in good shape !!!!ydoethur said:
This party had reached rock bottom.Big_G_NorthWales said:What a strange clarification
https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1650925555020169216?t=Z5dDvEOaMTXYuz9wvnxurg&s=19
It is now drilling.
https://news.sky.com/story/nicola-sturgeon-says-snp-crisis-beyond-her-worst-nightmares-128661960 -
No 55%Theuniondivvie said:
I'm not really paying too much attention to the people that have predicted 37 of the last 0 downfalls of the SNP and indy.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You must be hurting as independence disappears in front of your eyesTheuniondivvie said:
At what point do you think they'll be polling as low as the Tories?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Sturgeon - party in good shape !!!!ydoethur said:
This party had reached rock bottom.Big_G_NorthWales said:What a strange clarification
https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1650925555020169216?t=Z5dDvEOaMTXYuz9wvnxurg&s=19
It is now drilling.
https://news.sky.com/story/nicola-sturgeon-says-snp-crisis-beyond-her-worst-nightmares-12866196
But situation normal there.
Yes 45%
0 -
Ultimately, people weren't willing enough to die fighting for a corrupt puppet regime. South Vietnam all over again.Dura_Ace said:
What else could Biden have done? The twenty year, trillion dollar project had failed and was politically exhausted.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Including by US voters, who came to conclusion, long before Pentagon or State Dept or White House, that Afghanistan was Lost Cause.Leon said:
Quite. It’s an enormous black mark against Biden. All too conveniently overlookedrcs1000 said:
And, of course, that emboldened Putin.Leon said:
Everyone saying Biden is surprisingly good seems to be forgetting the absolute catastrophe that was Afghanistan. It didn’t have to be that bad. One of the greatest foreign policy humiliations in recent American history. And by all accounts that WAS BidenNorthern_Al said:
Some of those are somewhat harsh given he's only been in power for two years.Leon said:
Afghanistan? Immigration? Opioids? Crime? Homelessness? Life expectancy?Northern_Al said:In defence of Biden, and setting aside his age. I agree with the view that he's under-rated.
Every time he's been tested, he's exceeded expectations. Whether it be mid-term elections, making major speeches, setting a clear course for the economy, or anything else I can think of he has, to coin a phrase, surprised on the upside.
He also has a quality that recent UK PMs have sorely lacked. He delegates a lot of stuff to intelligent, competent people who just get on with their jobs.
I just wish he were 50 rather than 80.
I’m sorry, Biden has only outperformed because expectations were SO low. On many metrics he has been quite poor. Or really poor
However he HAS done well on pure GDP - ironically by being quite Trumpian. And he’s shown genuine mettle and determination abroad - Ukraine, AUKUS, alliance building. There he has been genuinely good. Infinitely better than Trump
But he is 80 and already wobbly
I'm Joe Biden, and since I became President people are living longer. And lots of you have stopped taking drugs.
It’s one of the interesting aspects of the Netflix drama The Diplomat - which is obviously Democrat-leaning, I’d say - is how much severe critique is aimed at that debacle
Only subsequent concern for most being to see the end of US involvement as soon as possible. Messy or not.0 -
It's interesting that even though we borrowed the thick end of £140 billion last year, the fact it wasn't £150 billion means the Chancellor has "room for tax cuts" in his next Budget.TheScreamingEagles said:Well that's the economy fucked, Labour landslide nailed on.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/04/25/uk-economy-optimism-recession-brexit-imf-sunak/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr
Obviously, there are those who think somehow a penny off income tax is going to make us forget the last few years and vote back Rishi Sunak - maybe. Even if that were so, which I doubt, the bigger question is whether the priority shouldn't be election winning tax cuts but reducing the deficit and the debt for future generations.
We are having to pay not insignificant amounts each month in debt interest payments and perhaps, just perhaps, Hunt is more in the vein of a Ken Clarke and will put the longer term economic interest above the short term party partisan interest.5 -
2017 says helloFoxy said:
No guarantee of swingback.Casino_Royale said:
Another mistake.Wulfrun_Phil said:
The important figure in these seats is the Conservative share. Down 18% on the 50% they got at the GE. That's because half of those seats are LD targets, half are Lab targets. In very few of those seats are both Lab and the LDs in serious contention, and so the tactical voting choices should be obvious. So you can expect the Lab and LD votes to be highly concentrated in their target seats, such that one or the other is generally well ahead of the 32% average Con vote which has to be more evenly spread.TheScreamingEagles said:Labour leads by 2% in the Blue Wall. In 2019, Labour came THIRD in these seats.
Blue Wall Voting Intention (23 April):
Labour 34% (-3)
Conservative 32% (-3)
Liberal Democrat 24% (+4)
Green 5% (–)
Reform UK 5% (+1)
Other 1% (+1)
https://twitter.com/redfieldwilton/status/1650892423219019781?s=46
In a GE the Conservatives won't be down 18%. They may be down 8 or 9% but not 18%.
Don't nowcast. 0 -
Leaflet from the local Tories - promising a 4 year Council Tax Freeze, and to clear out the Ashfield Independent sleaze.
Problems, local Tories, are that I want decent services not a Council Tax Freeze, and you care so little about the safety of the public that your PCC who got herself banned from driving via FIVE speeding offences in a short time whilst campaigning for the position because she thought her paperwork was more important than the safety of her neighbours still remains in her jo as your representative.0 -
Not great given Wrexham has a Tory MP and some Wrexham fans will be Tory votersTheScreamingEagles said:Video shows Wrexham players singing 'F*** the Tories' in McDonalds following historic win
https://twitter.com/WalesOnline/status/16501260027128791070 -
Could have been handled better for sure. Speed of collapse looked terrible, even if it underlined how fragile and unsustainable the whole thing was.Dura_Ace said:
What else could Biden have done? The twenty year, trillion dollar project had failed and was politically exhausted.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Including by US voters, who came to conclusion, long before Pentagon or State Dept or White House, that Afghanistan was Lost Cause.Leon said:
Quite. It’s an enormous black mark against Biden. All too conveniently overlookedrcs1000 said:
And, of course, that emboldened Putin.Leon said:
Everyone saying Biden is surprisingly good seems to be forgetting the absolute catastrophe that was Afghanistan. It didn’t have to be that bad. One of the greatest foreign policy humiliations in recent American history. And by all accounts that WAS BidenNorthern_Al said:
Some of those are somewhat harsh given he's only been in power for two years.Leon said:
Afghanistan? Immigration? Opioids? Crime? Homelessness? Life expectancy?Northern_Al said:In defence of Biden, and setting aside his age. I agree with the view that he's under-rated.
Every time he's been tested, he's exceeded expectations. Whether it be mid-term elections, making major speeches, setting a clear course for the economy, or anything else I can think of he has, to coin a phrase, surprised on the upside.
He also has a quality that recent UK PMs have sorely lacked. He delegates a lot of stuff to intelligent, competent people who just get on with their jobs.
I just wish he were 50 rather than 80.
I’m sorry, Biden has only outperformed because expectations were SO low. On many metrics he has been quite poor. Or really poor
However he HAS done well on pure GDP - ironically by being quite Trumpian. And he’s shown genuine mettle and determination abroad - Ukraine, AUKUS, alliance building. There he has been genuinely good. Infinitely better than Trump
But he is 80 and already wobbly
I'm Joe Biden, and since I became President people are living longer. And lots of you have stopped taking drugs.
It’s one of the interesting aspects of the Netflix drama The Diplomat - which is obviously Democrat-leaning, I’d say - is how much severe critique is aimed at that debacle
Only subsequent concern for most being to see the end of US involvement as soon as possible. Messy or not.0 -
What's a good result for SNP? Remaining largest party in Scotland?Theuniondivvie said:
I'm not really paying too much attention to the people that have predicted 37 of the last 0 downfalls of the SNP and indy.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You must be hurting as independence disappears in front of your eyesTheuniondivvie said:
At what point do you think they'll be polling as low as the Tories?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Sturgeon - party in good shape !!!!ydoethur said:
This party had reached rock bottom.Big_G_NorthWales said:What a strange clarification
https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1650925555020169216?t=Z5dDvEOaMTXYuz9wvnxurg&s=19
It is now drilling.
https://news.sky.com/story/nicola-sturgeon-says-snp-crisis-beyond-her-worst-nightmares-12866196
But situation normal there.0 -
He’s not wrong. A Blue Wall poll with a LLG of 63 and the Tories dropping by 3, is a blue wall coming a tumbling down in the GE next year.Stuartinromford said:
But he's not wrong, is he?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I would not have expected you to say anything lessTheScreamingEagles said:
Which is pretty shit for Sunak considering the profile of these seats.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And Sunak leads Starmer by 6% apparentlyDougSeal said:
SKS fans please...oh forget it....TheScreamingEagles said:Labour leads by 2% in the Blue Wall. In 2019, Labour came THIRD in these seats.
Blue Wall Voting Intention (23 April):
Labour 34% (-3)
Conservative 32% (-3)
Liberal Democrat 24% (+4)
Green 5% (–)
Reform UK 5% (+1)
Other 1% (+1)
https://twitter.com/redfieldwilton/status/1650892423219019781?s=46
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1650894993442177025?t=MDUWdictIBgygf4JPE9Cyw&s=19
It really can be minus 150 Tory MPs, because is clearly not a straightforward Tory v Labour tussle anymore.0 -
One reason why I have never really understood the statute of limitations for most crimes. I can understand not prosecuting if the authorities believe the evidence has been tarnished by the passage of time (witnesses forgetting etc) but a blanket get out of jail free card (or rather don't go to jail card) based purely on time since the crime seems wrong to me.LostPassword said:A man was sentenced to six years in jail in Cork today, for the sexual assault of an 8 year old twenty years ago. I thought the story was worth sharing because his victim, Hannah Beresford had what I thought were some interesting and important things to say, in part about how these are viewed as "historical" cases.
Hussey's assault on Ms Beresford happened almost two decades ago. She heard it described in court recently as "historic". She returned to that description this afternoon.
"This is not history to me," she clarified. "This assault is an everyday fact of my life. It is no longer the largest force of my life, but that does not mean it is consigned to history."
Worth reading the full article.
https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2023/0425/1379116-hannah-beresford-statement/0 -
Considering the total meltdown at the top of the party, I think the SNP vote is amazingly resilient.Theuniondivvie said:
I'm not really paying too much attention to the people that have predicted 37 of the last 0 downfalls of the SNP and indy.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You must be hurting as independence disappears in front of your eyesTheuniondivvie said:
At what point do you think they'll be polling as low as the Tories?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Sturgeon - party in good shape !!!!ydoethur said:
This party had reached rock bottom.Big_G_NorthWales said:What a strange clarification
https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1650925555020169216?t=Z5dDvEOaMTXYuz9wvnxurg&s=19
It is now drilling.
https://news.sky.com/story/nicola-sturgeon-says-snp-crisis-beyond-her-worst-nightmares-12866196
But situation normal there.1 -
This is a government of monsters.
UK secretly deported 100 Nepali guards who protected staff in Kabul
Exclusive: People who risked their lives and were evacuated to Britain were forcibly removed to Nepal days later
More than 100 Nepali guards who risked their lives to protect British embassy staff in Afghanistan before the Taliban seized back control were secretly returned to Nepal against their wishes shortly after being airlifted to safety in the UK, the Guardian can reveal.
Hundreds of Nepali nationals and a smaller number of Indian nationals who protected key institutions in Kabul were brought to the UK on an RAF flight during the chaotic evacuation of the Afghan capital by western countries in August 2021, as victorious Taliban forces closed in.
It has now emerged that days after they arrived in the UK, more than 100 of these evacuees were forcibly removed to their home countries even though many had been issued with six-month visas on arrival.
The Guardian has interviewed some of the deported guards, who believed their lives were in danger in Nepal. Some were forcibly removed from hotel rooms in the UK in areas including Northampton, Reading, Oxford and Swindon before completing what at the time was a mandatory 10-day period of Covid-19 pandemic hotel quarantine for new arrivals in the UK.
Nepal was designated as a red-list country, with UK government instructions that people should not travel there, when the former guards were flown back in 2021.
Some have managed to find their way back to the UK since 2021 and have claimed asylum.
In March, at least 10 Nepali guards who protected the British embassy staff in Kabul and were still living in the UK were arrested in a raid at their west London hotel and detained by the Home Office.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/apr/25/uk-secretly-deported-100-nepali-guards-who-protected-staff-in-kabul-afghanistan0 -
He was called Creepy Joe before he was called Sleepy Joe. I think it takes a certain sort of person to rise to the top of politics in the US full stop. The issue with Trump isn't that he's a narcissistic sociopath, but that he isn't the establishment narcissistic sociopath.MattW said:
Quite amused that his dad was a used car salesman.Luckyguy1983 said:
Yes, he was impressive in that interview. I don't know why he took our side, and it doesn't really matter - perhaps there was an anti-fascist perspective that he was aligning with. It remains true that his words and actions in Government are of someone who regards the UK as both his province, and a disliked foe. And we have nobody on our side who will raise so much as an eyebrow, much less an objection. Sunak makes Boris look almost Thatcheresque in his defence of the national interest.kle4 said:
Didn't he back us fully over the Falklands, when others were being more wishy washy?Luckyguy1983 said:..
He also hates the UK, a neurosis that sadly has not mellowed with age. Combined with a biddable UK PM like Sunak (doubt Starmer will be a great improvement), his continued tenure is bad for us.Northern_Al said:In defence of Biden, and setting aside his age. I agree with the view that he's under-rated.
Every time he's been tested, he's exceeded expectations. Whether it be mid-term elections, making major speeches, setting a clear course for the economy, or anything else I can think of he has, to coin a phrase, surprised on the upside.
He also has a quality that recent UK PMs have sorely lacked. He delegates a lot of stuff to intelligent, competent people who just get on with their jobs.
I just wish he were 50 rather than 80.
Chose the right side over Nixon in Senate. Has benefited from one or two lucky episodes: forgivable.
Has enough in his personal history to have a few scars. Comes across as a decent human in dealing with other human beings when he does not have to, rather than a self-serving bastard as say Johnson or Clinton.
Seems to have a rather strange attachment to a cartoon Irish identity. But has crossed the coasts of the USA in his head which means a huge amount.
And has made a lot of good calls. Right side on gun violence, and road violence (maybe, eventually).
For now, I'll take Biden.2 -
I feel like the only fiscal conservative in the country.stodge said:
It's interesting that even though we borrowed the thick end of £140 billion last year, the fact it wasn't £150 billion means the Chancellor has "room for tax cuts" in his next Budget.TheScreamingEagles said:Well that's the economy fucked, Labour landslide nailed on.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/04/25/uk-economy-optimism-recession-brexit-imf-sunak/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr
Obviously, there are those who think somehow a penny off income tax is going to make us forget the last few years and vote back Rishi Sunak - maybe. Even if that were so, which I doubt, the bigger question is whether the priority shouldn't be election winning tax cuts but reducing the deficit and the debt for future generations.
We are having to pay not insignificant amounts each month in debt interest payments and perhaps, just perhaps, Hunt is more in the vein of a Ken Clarke and will put the longer term economic interest above the short term party partisan interest.1 -
Thanks for the eBay hint - found this one, more in my price bracket...Theuniondivvie said:
There you go. Black looks good I think.Benpointer said:
I sort of knew that but thanks for the correction. That one's sold out, possibly fortunately, given the price(!)Dura_Ace said:
For a start, it's never a "Ferrari Dino", they were just called "Dino".Benpointer said:Ok this is a long shot* - promised to buy my Brother a Ferrari Dino 246 GT for his 60th.
Can't afford the real thing so who makes the best die-cast model?
(*With PB you never know - someone might be an expert.)
This is what you want.
https://www.tmcollectibles.com/en/dino-246-gt
https://tinyurl.com/5ayfyksb
https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/134539199015
Now, if that premium bond jackpot comes in I might buy he a real one.2 -
Not pretending any more, if they ever were.
Russian MP Andrei Gurulyov calls for the Soviet-era term "enemy of the people" to be brought back
He says his own grandfather spent 9 years in the Gulag but praises Stalin for establishing "discipline" in the country
https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/16508876469467750401 -
Put your money on Matthew McConaughey coming up the outside as a “none of the above” candidate. Gets the liberal vote because he’s an actor and the right vote as he’s not a screaming Hollywood liberal. It’s time for another actor to run the US.0
-
Some class eh..in MaccY D''s. I wouldn't tough that stuff with a bargepole.... Bar the MCflurrie which is nice Ice CreamHYUFD said:
Not great given Wrexham has a Tory MP and some Wrexham fans will be Tory votersTheScreamingEagles said:Video shows Wrexham players singing 'F*** the Tories' in McDonalds following historic win
https://twitter.com/WalesOnline/status/16501260027128791071 -
Awful indeed, but hardly surprising with this government.TheScreamingEagles said:This is a government of monsters.
UK secretly deported 100 Nepali guards who protected staff in Kabul
Exclusive: People who risked their lives and were evacuated to Britain were forcibly removed to Nepal days later
More than 100 Nepali guards who risked their lives to protect British embassy staff in Afghanistan before the Taliban seized back control were secretly returned to Nepal against their wishes shortly after being airlifted to safety in the UK, the Guardian can reveal.
Hundreds of Nepali nationals and a smaller number of Indian nationals who protected key institutions in Kabul were brought to the UK on an RAF flight during the chaotic evacuation of the Afghan capital by western countries in August 2021, as victorious Taliban forces closed in.
It has now emerged that days after they arrived in the UK, more than 100 of these evacuees were forcibly removed to their home countries even though many had been issued with six-month visas on arrival.
The Guardian has interviewed some of the deported guards, who believed their lives were in danger in Nepal. Some were forcibly removed from hotel rooms in the UK in areas including Northampton, Reading, Oxford and Swindon before completing what at the time was a mandatory 10-day period of Covid-19 pandemic hotel quarantine for new arrivals in the UK.
Nepal was designated as a red-list country, with UK government instructions that people should not travel there, when the former guards were flown back in 2021.
Some have managed to find their way back to the UK since 2021 and have claimed asylum.
In March, at least 10 Nepali guards who protected the British embassy staff in Kabul and were still living in the UK were arrested in a raid at their west London hotel and detained by the Home Office.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/apr/25/uk-secretly-deported-100-nepali-guards-who-protected-staff-in-kabul-afghanistan
Is there a more right-on, left-wing, Tory than TSE?0 -
I'm pure Thatcherite/Cameroon.Benpointer said:
Awful indeed.TheScreamingEagles said:This is a government of monsters.
UK secretly deported 100 Nepali guards who protected staff in Kabul
Exclusive: People who risked their lives and were evacuated to Britain were forcibly removed to Nepal days later
More than 100 Nepali guards who risked their lives to protect British embassy staff in Afghanistan before the Taliban seized back control were secretly returned to Nepal against their wishes shortly after being airlifted to safety in the UK, the Guardian can reveal.
Hundreds of Nepali nationals and a smaller number of Indian nationals who protected key institutions in Kabul were brought to the UK on an RAF flight during the chaotic evacuation of the Afghan capital by western countries in August 2021, as victorious Taliban forces closed in.
It has now emerged that days after they arrived in the UK, more than 100 of these evacuees were forcibly removed to their home countries even though many had been issued with six-month visas on arrival.
The Guardian has interviewed some of the deported guards, who believed their lives were in danger in Nepal. Some were forcibly removed from hotel rooms in the UK in areas including Northampton, Reading, Oxford and Swindon before completing what at the time was a mandatory 10-day period of Covid-19 pandemic hotel quarantine for new arrivals in the UK.
Nepal was designated as a red-list country, with UK government instructions that people should not travel there, when the former guards were flown back in 2021.
Some have managed to find their way back to the UK since 2021 and have claimed asylum.
In March, at least 10 Nepali guards who protected the British embassy staff in Kabul and were still living in the UK were arrested in a raid at their west London hotel and detained by the Home Office.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/apr/25/uk-secretly-deported-100-nepali-guards-who-protected-staff-in-kabul-afghanistan
Is there a more right-on, left-wing, Tory than TSE?0 -
I think they're on course for that whatever happens. Not much sign in the polling that anyone has fallen back in love with SLab or the Starmer project, and indy polling is still around 45%+ for Yes. Humza is repeating his leadership campaign of so far not managing to fuck up too obviously*, so who knows?rkrkrk said:
What's a good result for SNP? Remaining largest party in Scotland?Theuniondivvie said:
I'm not really paying too much attention to the people that have predicted 37 of the last 0 downfalls of the SNP and indy.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You must be hurting as independence disappears in front of your eyesTheuniondivvie said:
At what point do you think they'll be polling as low as the Tories?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Sturgeon - party in good shape !!!!ydoethur said:
This party had reached rock bottom.Big_G_NorthWales said:What a strange clarification
https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1650925555020169216?t=Z5dDvEOaMTXYuz9wvnxurg&s=19
It is now drilling.
https://news.sky.com/story/nicola-sturgeon-says-snp-crisis-beyond-her-worst-nightmares-12866196
But situation normal there.
*Tory Unionists entirely complicit in the CameronBrexitMayJohnsonTruss shitberg chortling about 'Useless' are not any guide.0 -
If I was hopecasting I'd be saying the Conservatives would barely be down at all, or even better their GE2019.stodge said:
Don't hopecast.Casino_Royale said:
Another mistake.Wulfrun_Phil said:
The important figure in these seats is the Conservative share. Down 18% on the 50% they got at the GE. That's because half of those seats are LD targets, half are Lab targets. In very few of those seats are both Lab and the LDs in serious contention, and so the tactical voting choices should be obvious. So you can expect the Lab and LD votes to be highly concentrated in their target seats, such that one or the other is generally well ahead of the 32% average Con vote which has to be more evenly spread.TheScreamingEagles said:Labour leads by 2% in the Blue Wall. In 2019, Labour came THIRD in these seats.
Blue Wall Voting Intention (23 April):
Labour 34% (-3)
Conservative 32% (-3)
Liberal Democrat 24% (+4)
Green 5% (–)
Reform UK 5% (+1)
Other 1% (+1)
https://twitter.com/redfieldwilton/status/1650892423219019781?s=46
In a GE the Conservatives won't be down 18%. They may be down 8 or 9% but not 18%.
Don't nowcast.
Seriously, polls like this may or may not be accurate in the context of the next General Election but they are indicative of the Conservatives having lost perhaps a third of their 2019 vote and that's not a small number. The impact on the forthcoming local elections might be handwaved as being of little significance by some but the psychological impact of losing seats and councils on activists isn't without import.
I'm not saying that. I'm forecasting. Just because I'm forecasting and not nowcasting doesn't mean I'm hopecasting.
This is still midterm. The polling will look different once an election is imminent and I expect most of the Conservative base (not all) to then rally.0 -
Besides, a lot of the gains the Conservatives made in 2019 weren't about their vote going up as much as the opposition votes scattering pretty inefficiently.MoonRabbit said:
He’s not wrong. A Blue Wall poll with a LLG of 63 and the Tories dropping by 3, is a blue wall coming a tumbling down in the GE next year.Stuartinromford said:
But he's not wrong, is he?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I would not have expected you to say anything lessTheScreamingEagles said:
Which is pretty shit for Sunak considering the profile of these seats.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And Sunak leads Starmer by 6% apparentlyDougSeal said:
SKS fans please...oh forget it....TheScreamingEagles said:Labour leads by 2% in the Blue Wall. In 2019, Labour came THIRD in these seats.
Blue Wall Voting Intention (23 April):
Labour 34% (-3)
Conservative 32% (-3)
Liberal Democrat 24% (+4)
Green 5% (–)
Reform UK 5% (+1)
Other 1% (+1)
https://twitter.com/redfieldwilton/status/1650892423219019781?s=46
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1650894993442177025?t=MDUWdictIBgygf4JPE9Cyw&s=19
It really can be minus 150 Tory MPs, because is clearly not a straightforward Tory v Labour tussle anymore.
What Conservative canvassing won't particularly be picking up (since canvasers try not to disturb supporters of their opponents, in the hope that they don't realise there is an election on) is how fed up the LLG voters are and the extent to which they decide to fall in behind the most likely anti-Conservative candidate in their area. That's not easy to poll, but it's massive in FPTP.
Get back to 2017 levels of tactical efficiency and that's almost enough to kipper Sunak's premiership by itself.1 -
I think he's a bit like Reagan. Instinctively knows what he wants so he doesn't agonise over decision-making. And lets his team get on with it. 50 years experience at the top helps as well. Has seen many of these issues before and formed views on them long ago.MattW said:
Quite amused that his dad was a used car salesman.Luckyguy1983 said:
Yes, he was impressive in that interview. I don't know why he took our side, and it doesn't really matter - perhaps there was an anti-fascist perspective that he was aligning with. It remains true that his words and actions in Government are of someone who regards the UK as both his province, and a disliked foe. And we have nobody on our side who will raise so much as an eyebrow, much less an objection. Sunak makes Boris look almost Thatcheresque in his defence of the national interest.kle4 said:
Didn't he back us fully over the Falklands, when others were being more wishy washy?Luckyguy1983 said:..
He also hates the UK, a neurosis that sadly has not mellowed with age. Combined with a biddable UK PM like Sunak (doubt Starmer will be a great improvement), his continued tenure is bad for us.Northern_Al said:In defence of Biden, and setting aside his age. I agree with the view that he's under-rated.
Every time he's been tested, he's exceeded expectations. Whether it be mid-term elections, making major speeches, setting a clear course for the economy, or anything else I can think of he has, to coin a phrase, surprised on the upside.
He also has a quality that recent UK PMs have sorely lacked. He delegates a lot of stuff to intelligent, competent people who just get on with their jobs.
I just wish he were 50 rather than 80.
Chose the right side over Nixon in Senate. Has benefited from one or two lucky episodes: forgivable.
Has enough in his personal history to have a few scars. Comes across as a decent human in dealing with other human beings when he does not have to, rather than a self-serving bastard as say Johnson or Clinton.
Seems to have a rather strange attachment to a cartoon Irish identity. But has crossed the coasts of the USA in his head which means a huge amount.
And has made a lot of good calls. Right side on gun violence, and road violence (maybe, eventually).
For now, I'll take Biden.1 -
I want a council tax freeze.MattW said:Leaflet from the local Tories - promising a 4 year Council Tax Freeze, and to clear out the Ashfield Independent sleaze.
Problems, local Tories, are that I want decent services not a Council Tax Freeze, and you care so little about the safety of the public that your PCC who got herself banned from driving via FIVE speeding offences in a short time whilst campaigning for the position because she thought her paperwork was more important than the safety of her neighbours still remains in her jo as your representative.
The increases go on the police, who either do nothing or use the extra forces to ramp up social media policing/or harassment of motorists, or on social care, which I think is the responsibility of the relatives or those with assets - not mine.
Don't fall into the trap of thinking extra public spending delivers results in this country. It gets lost in higher pay, internal inflation, misdirection of labour resource and productivity losses.0 -
There’s a couple going under the hammer at Silverstone next month. Prices guides around £300k and £400k.Benpointer said:
Thanks for the eBay hint - found this one, more in my price bracket...Theuniondivvie said:
There you go. Black looks good I think.Benpointer said:
I sort of knew that but thanks for the correction. That one's sold out, possibly fortunately, given the price(!)Dura_Ace said:
For a start, it's never a "Ferrari Dino", they were just called "Dino".Benpointer said:Ok this is a long shot* - promised to buy my Brother a Ferrari Dino 246 GT for his 60th.
Can't afford the real thing so who makes the best die-cast model?
(*With PB you never know - someone might be an expert.)
This is what you want.
https://www.tmcollectibles.com/en/dino-246-gt
https://tinyurl.com/5ayfyksb
https://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/134539199015
img src="https://storefeederimages.blob.core.windows.net/rmtoysltd/Products/d3ec7663-764b-478c-8245-31a495b085f7/Full/0iogdzke4uu.jpg">
Now, if that premium bond jackpot comes in I might buy he a real one.
https://www.silverstoneauctions.com/supercar-fest-sale-of-iconic-and-classic-cars-2023/2023-05-20/ipp-100
The later (and nowhere near as pretty) 308 Dino is only guided at £45k though!0 -
You mean like has been gradually happening over recent months to get the Tories to 30%+ despite being largely ignored and uncommented upon here?Foxy said:
No guarantee of swingback.Casino_Royale said:
Another mistake.Wulfrun_Phil said:
The important figure in these seats is the Conservative share. Down 18% on the 50% they got at the GE. That's because half of those seats are LD targets, half are Lab targets. In very few of those seats are both Lab and the LDs in serious contention, and so the tactical voting choices should be obvious. So you can expect the Lab and LD votes to be highly concentrated in their target seats, such that one or the other is generally well ahead of the 32% average Con vote which has to be more evenly spread.TheScreamingEagles said:Labour leads by 2% in the Blue Wall. In 2019, Labour came THIRD in these seats.
Blue Wall Voting Intention (23 April):
Labour 34% (-3)
Conservative 32% (-3)
Liberal Democrat 24% (+4)
Green 5% (–)
Reform UK 5% (+1)
Other 1% (+1)
https://twitter.com/redfieldwilton/status/1650892423219019781?s=46
In a GE the Conservatives won't be down 18%. They may be down 8 or 9% but not 18%.
Don't nowcast.
The prospect of a Labour government will focus minds amongst centre-right inclined voters who will rally to frustrate/inhibit/block it so, yes, I think swingback will occur by the GE - almost certainly.
Prob not enough to win though.0 -
Can we start after I'm dead?Cookie said:
Also, Britins were never as rich as they thought they were in the furst place. We have been liviing beyond oir means since 2001. At some point we need to pay all that back.TheScreamingEagles said:I admire his honesty.
Britons have to accept they have become poorer, a senior Bank of England official has said, claiming that an unwillingness to accept the nation’s downward mobility was fuelling inflation.
Huw Pill, Threadneedle Street’s chief economist, said: “[People] need to accept that they're worse off and stop trying to maintain their real spending power by bidding up prices, whether [through] higher wages or passing the energy costs through onto customers.”
Mr Pill said people and businesses were trying to maintain their standards of living and profits by either demanding higher pay or putting up prices.
However, he argued this was only likely to fuel inflation and compared the dynamic to a game of pass the parcel, where each player was unwilling to accept the burden of higher prices that make them poorer.
Mr Pill said: “That pass-the-parcel game that is going on here, that game is the one that’s generating inflation and that part of inflation can persist.”
He said there was a “reluctance to accept” that Britain had become collectively poorer but claimed it was an inevitable consequence of the surge in energy prices since the invasion of Ukraine.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/04/25/people-accept-poorer-bank-of-england-huw-pill/1 -
TBF, I think there is a slight decoupling of the prospects of the two.Theuniondivvie said:
I'm not really paying too much attention to the people that have predicted 37 of the last 0 downfalls of the SNP and indy.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You must be hurting as independence disappears in front of your eyesTheuniondivvie said:
At what point do you think they'll be polling as low as the Tories?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Sturgeon - party in good shape !!!!ydoethur said:
This party had reached rock bottom.Big_G_NorthWales said:What a strange clarification
https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1650925555020169216?t=Z5dDvEOaMTXYuz9wvnxurg&s=19
It is now drilling.
https://news.sky.com/story/nicola-sturgeon-says-snp-crisis-beyond-her-worst-nightmares-12866196
But situation normal there.0 -
You completely fail to appreciate the dynamic effect of tax cuts and the corresponding increase in economic activity on overall tax receipts. Economic growth, or lack of it, has a huge impact on debt repayment. Consider the recent news reports that weak economic growth meant we were £13 billion behind where we were meant to be on debt. £13 billion - that's over a quarter of Liz and Kwasi's £45 BILLION IN TAX CUTS that everyone was wetting their pants about. If economic growth continues to be weak, or goes into reverse, as may well happen if current policies are continued, that figure will make the mini budget look conservative. It will make the budget look, as many consider it to be, like a fairly parsimonious investment in staving off a damaging recession.stodge said:
It's interesting that even though we borrowed the thick end of £140 billion last year, the fact it wasn't £150 billion means the Chancellor has "room for tax cuts" in his next Budget.TheScreamingEagles said:Well that's the economy fucked, Labour landslide nailed on.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/04/25/uk-economy-optimism-recession-brexit-imf-sunak/?li_source=LI&li_medium=liftigniter-rhr
Obviously, there are those who think somehow a penny off income tax is going to make us forget the last few years and vote back Rishi Sunak - maybe. Even if that were so, which I doubt, the bigger question is whether the priority shouldn't be election winning tax cuts but reducing the deficit and the debt for future generations.
We are having to pay not insignificant amounts each month in debt interest payments and perhaps, just perhaps, Hunt is more in the vein of a Ken Clarke and will put the longer term economic interest above the short term party partisan interest.0 -
And yet you spend almost all your time attacking your own party on here, using words like "evil" or "monsters" and cheer every setback.TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm pure Thatcherite/Cameroon.Benpointer said:
Awful indeed.TheScreamingEagles said:This is a government of monsters.
UK secretly deported 100 Nepali guards who protected staff in Kabul
Exclusive: People who risked their lives and were evacuated to Britain were forcibly removed to Nepal days later
More than 100 Nepali guards who risked their lives to protect British embassy staff in Afghanistan before the Taliban seized back control were secretly returned to Nepal against their wishes shortly after being airlifted to safety in the UK, the Guardian can reveal.
Hundreds of Nepali nationals and a smaller number of Indian nationals who protected key institutions in Kabul were brought to the UK on an RAF flight during the chaotic evacuation of the Afghan capital by western countries in August 2021, as victorious Taliban forces closed in.
It has now emerged that days after they arrived in the UK, more than 100 of these evacuees were forcibly removed to their home countries even though many had been issued with six-month visas on arrival.
The Guardian has interviewed some of the deported guards, who believed their lives were in danger in Nepal. Some were forcibly removed from hotel rooms in the UK in areas including Northampton, Reading, Oxford and Swindon before completing what at the time was a mandatory 10-day period of Covid-19 pandemic hotel quarantine for new arrivals in the UK.
Nepal was designated as a red-list country, with UK government instructions that people should not travel there, when the former guards were flown back in 2021.
Some have managed to find their way back to the UK since 2021 and have claimed asylum.
In March, at least 10 Nepali guards who protected the British embassy staff in Kabul and were still living in the UK were arrested in a raid at their west London hotel and detained by the Home Office.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/apr/25/uk-secretly-deported-100-nepali-guards-who-protected-staff-in-kabul-afghanistan
Is there a more right-on, left-wing, Tory than TSE?
You are just like JRM or Bridgen, just from the other wing of the party.2 -
But with a freeze it just means a higher proportion will go on social care because of rising costs and demands there, so even less on the things we'd rather it be spent on. As they cannot simply stop spending on social care. So it achieves little.Casino_Royale said:
I want a council tax freeze.MattW said:Leaflet from the local Tories - promising a 4 year Council Tax Freeze, and to clear out the Ashfield Independent sleaze.
Problems, local Tories, are that I want decent services not a Council Tax Freeze, and you care so little about the safety of the public that your PCC who got herself banned from driving via FIVE speeding offences in a short time whilst campaigning for the position because she thought her paperwork was more important than the safety of her neighbours still remains in her jo as your representative.
The increases go on the police, who either do nothing or use the extra forces to ramp up social media policing/or harassment of motorists, or on social care, which I think is the responsibility of the relatives or those with assets - not mine.
Don't fall into the trap of thinking extra public spending delivers results in this country. It gets lost in higher pay, internal inflation, misdirection of labour resource and productivity losses.
Maybe Boris could use this moment to bring forward his social care plan he was going to implement.0 -
I think that's a not unfair summary. SNP score bolstered by identity politics. However they could still have highest vote share and lose a shedfull of seats at general election if they fall below a certain sweet spot. Much will depend on turn out and impact on more socially conservative indy supporters of Yousaf as leader and the ongoing pratfalls. We shall see.Theuniondivvie said:
I think they're on course for that whatever happens. Not much sign in the polling that anyone has fallen back in love with SLab or the Starmer project, and indy polling is still around 45%+ for Yes. Humza is repeating his leadership campaign of so far not managing to fuck up too obviously*, so who knows?rkrkrk said:
What's a good result for SNP? Remaining largest party in Scotland?Theuniondivvie said:
I'm not really paying too much attention to the people that have predicted 37 of the last 0 downfalls of the SNP and indy.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You must be hurting as independence disappears in front of your eyesTheuniondivvie said:
At what point do you think they'll be polling as low as the Tories?Big_G_NorthWales said:
Sturgeon - party in good shape !!!!ydoethur said:
This party had reached rock bottom.Big_G_NorthWales said:What a strange clarification
https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1650925555020169216?t=Z5dDvEOaMTXYuz9wvnxurg&s=19
It is now drilling.
https://news.sky.com/story/nicola-sturgeon-says-snp-crisis-beyond-her-worst-nightmares-12866196
But situation normal there.
*Tory Unionists entirely complicit in the CameronBrexitMayJohnsonTruss shitberg chortling about 'Useless' are not any guide.0 -
John Bolton still 1000-1. Does he really have that little chance?0
