Biden is going for a second term – politicalbetting.com

Selebian said:

Sandpit said:

Selebian said:

Selebian said:

Sandpit said:

Sandpit said:

Selebian said:

Who knew Luxembourg had a space agency?

This is getting a little tedious. I only joined the SpaceX one just before launch so missed all the inane chatter on that one.

ETA: Leon, is that one of yours behind the Ariane guy?

ETA2: Ah, might be getting somewhere now.

ETA3: No, still talking heads

At least, if you want to do a long buildup and have all your partners give speeches, put a T-minus clock in the corner, and a scrolling timeline of events along the bottom. SpaceX are really good at doing this.

An hour and a half after the progamme’s scheduled start, they’re talking about business plans. Any ideas what time the craft is supposed to land on the moon?

Says touchdown in just under 9 minutes on the display

ETA: But weren't they expecting to have heard directly from the craft by now? This is all just the simulation graphics/data, I think?

That eclipse pic is cool though

That was very cool, pic of a solar eclipse from lunar orbit, showing the shadow of the moon on the surface of the Earth.

Five minutes to go!

Sounds like the data are live (speed, altitude etc). I was hoping for some slightly delayed images or even video, but I guess the bandwidth is not sufficient, will hopefully get some of that later.

There will be a mighty cheer if they hear anything from the lander. Not sure how long the anticipated loss of contact was, but expressions say not this long...

Sandpit said:

How much tension in that control room, as they wait for the signal to get back from the moon?

I fear it's not looking good.

I hope the same thing that happened to the Israeli Beresheet lander hasn't happened here.

Northern_Al said:

In defence of Biden, and setting aside his age. I agree with the view that he's under-rated.

Every time he's been tested, he's exceeded expectations. Whether it be mid-term elections, making major speeches, setting a clear course for the economy, or anything else I can think of he has, to coin a phrase, surprised on the upside.

He also has a quality that recent UK PMs have sorely lacked. He delegates a lot of stuff to intelligent, competent people who just get on with their jobs.

I just wish he were 50 rather than 80.

If he was 50 he might be less prepared to do some of that delegating. Yes, clearly age changes people, but its some good, some bad at all ages rather than 80 bad or 30 bad and 50 ideal.

Northern_Al said:

In defence of Biden, and setting aside his age. I agree with the view that he's under-rated.

Every time he's been tested, he's exceeded expectations. Whether it be mid-term elections, making major speeches, setting a clear course for the economy, or anything else I can think of he has, to coin a phrase, surprised on the upside.

He also has a quality that recent UK PMs have sorely lacked. He delegates a lot of stuff to intelligent, competent people who just get on with their jobs.

I just wish he were 50 rather than 80.

Afghanistan? Immigration? Opioids? Crime? Homelessness? Life expectancy?

I’m sorry, Biden has only outperformed because expectations were SO low. On many metrics he has been quite poor. Or really poor

However he HAS done well on pure GDP - ironically by being quite Trumpian. And he’s shown genuine mettle and determination abroad - Ukraine, AUKUS, alliance building. There he has been genuinely good. Infinitely better than Trump

But he is 80 and already wobbly

noneoftheabove said:

Northern_Al said:

In defence of Biden, and setting aside his age. I agree with the view that he's under-rated.

Every time he's been tested, he's exceeded expectations. Whether it be mid-term elections, making major speeches, setting a clear course for the economy, or anything else I can think of he has, to coin a phrase, surprised on the upside.

He also has a quality that recent UK PMs have sorely lacked. He delegates a lot of stuff to intelligent, competent people who just get on with their jobs.

I just wish he were 50 rather than 80.

If he was 50 he might be less prepared to do some of that delegating. Yes, clearly age changes people, but its some good, some bad at all ages rather than 80 bad or 30 bad and 50 ideal.

Agree, but you're taking me a bit too literally. By "I wish he were 50" I meant with the knowledge and experience that he has now but, most importantly, so that we could be safe in the knowledge that he'd slaughter Trump before he (Biden) dropped dead or became too infirm.

JosiasJessop said:

Sandpit said:

How much tension in that control room, as they wait for the signal to get back from the moon?

I fear it's not looking good.

I hope the same thing that happened to the Israeli Beresheet lander hasn't happened here.

Still nothing, and the chance of good news diminishing with time.

FPT: Last week I saw what I am nearly certain was the mark of a successful spinal operation. I was riding a bus, and a very young woman sat down in the seat in front of me. I glanced at her and saw a neat groove down the middle of her neck. Which I am nearly certain was the result of an incision and some kind of operation on her spine, given the location.

It might encourage Our Gracious Host a little to learn that she seemed fine otherwise, from what I could see in that brief encounter.

(She was not hiding the mark; in fact she had her hair up in a tight little bun so that the incision was completely visible from the back.)

Oh dear

Nigelb said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Answer to the "big question" is hell yes.

IF Richard Nixon couldn't deep-six Spiro Agnew, and George Bush the Elder was stuck with Dan Quayle, then am certain (in my own cotton-pickin' mind) that Joe Biden will retain Kamala Harris.

For one thing, she has NOT been near the baggage for her POTUS, that Spiro and Danny Boy were for their running mates.

For another, the heavy lifting required to chuck America's first Black, Asian AND woman Veep over the side, strikes me as WAY more problematic than removing either Agnew or Quayle would have been, back in their days.

Hypothetically, who would be the pick for the Court if Thomas did go ?

No clue. However, doubt that Kamala Harris would be a shoo-in, either for nomination OR confirmation. There IS a limit to senatorial courtesy, especially in our corrupt age, particularly approaching election day.

But not ruling it out either, IF there's actually a vacancy with the next nine months or so.

As for Thomas, no doubt Roberts would like to see the back of him, and good riddance; HOWEVER seems doubtful that CT is gonna resign a life appointment, just because the Chief Justice gives him a stern lecture?

Leon said:

Northern_Al said:

In defence of Biden, and setting aside his age. I agree with the view that he's under-rated.

Every time he's been tested, he's exceeded expectations. Whether it be mid-term elections, making major speeches, setting a clear course for the economy, or anything else I can think of he has, to coin a phrase, surprised on the upside.

He also has a quality that recent UK PMs have sorely lacked. He delegates a lot of stuff to intelligent, competent people who just get on with their jobs.

I just wish he were 50 rather than 80.

Afghanistan? Immigration? Opioids? Crime? Homelessness? Life expectancy?

I’m sorry, Biden has only outperformed because expectations were SO low. On many metrics he has been quite poor. Or really poor

However he HAS done well on pure GDP - ironically by being quite Trumpian. And he’s shown genuine mettle and determination abroad - Ukraine, AUKUS, alliance building. There he has been genuinely good. Infinitely better than Trump

But he is 80 and already wobbly

I don't think homelessness is in the gift of the President.

Leon said:

I’m right. 82-83


“The estimated average age of onset of dementia in the United States is 83.7 years old (Plassman et al. 2011)”

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5624986/

Biden already looks doddery and says demented stuff. This ain’t good

He'll do less harm nonetheless of course. It may still be a failing, but I'm not sure he could have anointed a successor - we hear a lot about US politics, and I've not really heard of anyone pitched as a Bidenesque replacement, only people apparently written off as duds (like Harris) or people who want to go much further than he is willing to go and so regarded as less electable (like Sanders, previously), or too unknown to make it.

Just my opinion, but I think one of Biden's strengths is he seems like a pretty normal kind of guy despite being in politics for over 50 years. He's not normal, but he often sounds like it. Not easy.

DougSeal said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Answer to the "big question" is hell yes.

IF Richard Nixon couldn't deep-six Spiro Agnew, and George Bush the Elder was stuck with Dan Quayle, then am certain (in my own cotton-pickin' mind) that Joe Biden will retain Kamala Harris.

For one thing, she has NOT been near the baggage for her POTUS, that Spiro and Danny Boy were for their running mates.

For another, the heavy lifting required to chuck America's first Black, Asian AND woman Veep over the side, strikes me as WAY more problematic than removing either Agnew or Quayle would have been, back in their days.

The first time I heard of Sipro Agnew was when I got given a book of anagrams for a birthday present when I was about 11. Very amusing but a little inappropriate.

… and you made a new one right there

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:

Northern_Al said:

In defence of Biden, and setting aside his age. I agree with the view that he's under-rated.

Every time he's been tested, he's exceeded expectations. Whether it be mid-term elections, making major speeches, setting a clear course for the economy, or anything else I can think of he has, to coin a phrase, surprised on the upside.

He also has a quality that recent UK PMs have sorely lacked. He delegates a lot of stuff to intelligent, competent people who just get on with their jobs.

I just wish he were 50 rather than 80.

Afghanistan? Immigration? Opioids? Crime? Homelessness? Life expectancy?

I’m sorry, Biden has only outperformed because expectations were SO low. On many metrics he has been quite poor. Or really poor

However he HAS done well on pure GDP - ironically by being quite Trumpian. And he’s shown genuine mettle and determination abroad - Ukraine, AUKUS, alliance building. There he has been genuinely good. Infinitely better than Trump

But he is 80 and already wobbly

I don't think homelessness is in the gift of the President.

Neither is abortion policy, but it still seems to be getting activists excited.

Malmesbury said:

DavidL said:

Gloom.
He really isn't up to it. He got away with very limited campaigning in 2020 because of Covid. The schedule he would have to undertake this time has a serious risk of killing him.

Some old folks can surprise. My father was persuaded by his doctor to change his twice weekly jogs at the Oxford University track to long walks - in his mid 80s….

Biden looks in reasonable shape, and he's always been known for gaffes (has he gotten worse? I have no idea) but he doesn't look super robust, nor would most people at that age. Trump seems like he's powered by sheer ego and rage far beyond what his body should be able to sustain.

geoffw said:

On VPs, who would be DJT's apprentice running mate. Not Pence, obvs.

My guess some random Tucker.

Sandpit said:

rcs1000 said:

Sandpit said:

rcs1000 said:

eek said:

Malmesbury said:

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

No chance of a change to VP candidate.

Biden has already confirmed Harris stays, and he's not going to drop the first female VP and first black VP even if her approval ratings are poor (which they are - although not that much worse than his own).

I also doubt she's much of a drag on the ticket. As mentioned, her approval ratings aren't good, and she's not by any means a shoo-in to succeed him in 2028 if re-elected. That's rather different to her raising "heartbeat away from the Presidency" issues, though. She's no Quayle and no Palin. Few are enthused by the idea of her becoming President if Biden dies or is incapacitated (which is a non-trivial possibility given his age). But that isn't the same as fearing it - not by a long way.

I agree - with the caveat that if there was a Supreme Court opening and a chance to get her into it, she might well want to go for that.

except there is zero chance of her getting to the SC as the Republican party isn't going to allow her to be appointed.

Given the Democrats have 50 Senators, and the Republicans 49, how would they stop her?

Because the Democrats have 48 Senators, Dianne Feinstein, and John Fetterman.

John Fetterman is perfectly able to vote if required.

He’s out of the hospital now? Fair enough, but he was away for two months.

He's suffering from severe depression, which is not an uncommon stroke side effect. And which led to him checking himself into hospital.

But he can happily walk into the Senate chamber to vote.

I don't know if there are any countries which have set a maximum age for candidates for political office.

I think there are some limits on judicial age in some US states where they are elected and thus to my mind policians since they are usually backed by a political party, so they weirdly might be more ok with the idea even with examples of far older than Biden being in the Senate.

kle4 said:

This will probably mark me as some kind of intellectual or cultural philistine, but what was Noam Chomsky famous for beack in the day? I see on twitter he's been vociferously claiming with a straight face Corbyn won the 2017 election, and people seem to be surprised.

Chomsky developed the idea of a universal grammar innate to humans, and that this explained how infants learned to speak. This contrasted with the behavioural psychologist BF Skinner's theory that language acquisition was due to external stimuli and reinforcement. Chomsky's version was generally accepted (although it was never clear to me as a mere undergraduate that they were arguing at the same level of explanation and that both could be true).

Today, however babies do it, reinforcement learning is back in fashion for AI language acquisition.

geoffw said:

kle4 said:

This will probably mark me as some kind of intellectual or cultural philistine, but what was Noam Chomsky famous for beack in the day? I see on twitter he's been vociferously claiming with a straight face Corbyn won the 2017 election, and people seem to be surprised.

try Google

Yes, thank you geoffw. I was, in fact, somewhat interested in the opinions of PBers on the man, and thus their interpretation of a either the fall of a great man or the continuance of an utter crank, which would provide both the raw facts of his celebrity and something more useful.

Leon said:

Northern_Al said:

Leon said:

Northern_Al said:

In defence of Biden, and setting aside his age. I agree with the view that he's under-rated.

Every time he's been tested, he's exceeded expectations. Whether it be mid-term elections, making major speeches, setting a clear course for the economy, or anything else I can think of he has, to coin a phrase, surprised on the upside.

He also has a quality that recent UK PMs have sorely lacked. He delegates a lot of stuff to intelligent, competent people who just get on with their jobs.

I just wish he were 50 rather than 80.

Afghanistan? Immigration? Opioids? Crime? Homelessness? Life expectancy?

I’m sorry, Biden has only outperformed because expectations were SO low. On many metrics he has been quite poor. Or really poor

However he HAS done well on pure GDP - ironically by being quite Trumpian. And he’s shown genuine mettle and determination abroad - Ukraine, AUKUS, alliance building. There he has been genuinely good. Infinitely better than Trump

But he is 80 and already wobbly

Some of those are somewhat harsh given he's only been in power for two years.

I'm Joe Biden, and since I became President people are living longer. And lots of you have stopped taking drugs.

Everyone saying Biden is surprisingly good seems to be forgetting the absolute catastrophe that was Afghanistan. It didn’t have to be that bad. One of the greatest foreign policy humiliations in recent American history. And by all accounts that WAS Biden


It’s one of the interesting aspects of the Netflix drama The Diplomat - which is obviously Democrat-leaning, I’d say - is how much severe critique is aimed at that debacle

By all accounts, Afghanistan was Biden ballsing up a Trump balls-up. Trump made a deal with the Taliban to withdraw US troops. Biden implemented it, ignoring warnings that the Taliban were not playing a straight bat.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

kle4 said:

This will probably mark me as some kind of intellectual or cultural philistine, but what was Noam Chomsky famous for beack in the day? I see on twitter he's been vociferously claiming with a straight face Corbyn won the 2017 election, and people seem to be surprised.

Chomsky developed the idea of a universal grammar innate to humans, and that this explained how infants learned to speak. This contrasted with the behavioural psychologist BF Skinner's theory that language acquisition was due to external stimuli and reinforcement. Chomsky's version was generally accepted (although it was never clear to me as a mere undergraduate that they were arguing at the same level of explanation and that both could be true).

Today, however babies do it, reinforcement learning is back in fashion for AI language acquisition.

As more and more work is done at the neurological level, Chomsky's theories are rather falling out of fashion.

Leon said:

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:

Northern_Al said:

Leon said:

Northern_Al said:

In defence of Biden, and setting aside his age. I agree with the view that he's under-rated.

Every time he's been tested, he's exceeded expectations. Whether it be mid-term elections, making major speeches, setting a clear course for the economy, or anything else I can think of he has, to coin a phrase, surprised on the upside.

He also has a quality that recent UK PMs have sorely lacked. He delegates a lot of stuff to intelligent, competent people who just get on with their jobs.

I just wish he were 50 rather than 80.

Afghanistan? Immigration? Opioids? Crime? Homelessness? Life expectancy?

I’m sorry, Biden has only outperformed because expectations were SO low. On many metrics he has been quite poor. Or really poor

However he HAS done well on pure GDP - ironically by being quite Trumpian. And he’s shown genuine mettle and determination abroad - Ukraine, AUKUS, alliance building. There he has been genuinely good. Infinitely better than Trump

But he is 80 and already wobbly

Some of those are somewhat harsh given he's only been in power for two years.

I'm Joe Biden, and since I became President people are living longer. And lots of you have stopped taking drugs.

Everyone saying Biden is surprisingly good seems to be forgetting the absolute catastrophe that was Afghanistan. It didn’t have to be that bad. One of the greatest foreign policy humiliations in recent American history. And by all accounts that WAS Biden


It’s one of the interesting aspects of the Netflix drama The Diplomat - which is obviously Democrat-leaning, I’d say - is how much severe critique is aimed at that debacle

And, of course, that emboldened Putin.

Quite. It’s an enormous black mark against Biden. All too conveniently overlooked

He has somewhat redeemed himself in his steadfast support for Ukraine.

kle4 said:

geoffw said:

On VPs, who would be DJT's apprentice running mate. Not Pence, obvs.

Pence would do it if asked, he's such a tool. But it is an interesting question - who offers him the most? Politico were arguing the other day that the evangelical wing does not seem as powerful, in the sense that Trump retains plenty of backing there despite his personal values, so what gaps does Trump have in his arsenal?

Does he need a woman? Someone even more extreme than himself so he looks less extreme? A token boring person as a sop to those who don't like him but will vote GOP regardless?

He should go full House of Cards on this and have Ivanka as his running mate or something, or Don Jr.

Oh come on, Eric is the really talented one.

DecrepiterJohnL said:

kle4 said:

geoffw said:

On VPs, who would be DJT's apprentice running mate. Not Pence, obvs.

Pence would do it if asked, he's such a tool. But it is an interesting question - who offers him the most? Politico were arguing the other day that the evangelical wing does not seem as powerful, in the sense that Trump retains plenty of backing there despite his personal values, so what gaps does Trump have in his arsenal?

Does he need a woman? Someone even more extreme than himself so he looks less extreme? A token boring person as a sop to those who don't like him but will vote GOP regardless?

He should go full House of Cards on this and have Ivanka as his running mate or something, or Don Jr.

Trump should run with Ivanka and step down in two years so Ivanka becomes the first female president, and almost certainly the first Jewish one as well. For real lols, Ivanka should then switch parties back to Democrat.

And at the same time, James Murdoch will take the reigns at Fox, and drag it far to the left.

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:

Northern_Al said:

Leon said:

Northern_Al said:

In defence of Biden, and setting aside his age. I agree with the view that he's under-rated.

Every time he's been tested, he's exceeded expectations. Whether it be mid-term elections, making major speeches, setting a clear course for the economy, or anything else I can think of he has, to coin a phrase, surprised on the upside.

He also has a quality that recent UK PMs have sorely lacked. He delegates a lot of stuff to intelligent, competent people who just get on with their jobs.

I just wish he were 50 rather than 80.

Afghanistan? Immigration? Opioids? Crime? Homelessness? Life expectancy?

I’m sorry, Biden has only outperformed because expectations were SO low. On many metrics he has been quite poor. Or really poor

However he HAS done well on pure GDP - ironically by being quite Trumpian. And he’s shown genuine mettle and determination abroad - Ukraine, AUKUS, alliance building. There he has been genuinely good. Infinitely better than Trump

But he is 80 and already wobbly

Some of those are somewhat harsh given he's only been in power for two years.

I'm Joe Biden, and since I became President people are living longer. And lots of you have stopped taking drugs.

Everyone saying Biden is surprisingly good seems to be forgetting the absolute catastrophe that was Afghanistan. It didn’t have to be that bad. One of the greatest foreign policy humiliations in recent American history. And by all accounts that WAS Biden


It’s one of the interesting aspects of the Netflix drama The Diplomat - which is obviously Democrat-leaning, I’d say - is how much severe critique is aimed at that debacle

And, of course, that emboldened Putin.

Quite. It’s an enormous black mark against Biden. All too conveniently overlooked

He has somewhat redeemed himself in his steadfast support for Ukraine.

Requiring redemption in the first place is a shame, but he certainly got that one right. Afghanistan was only various possibilities of very bad, though a particularly extreme version occurred.

rcs1000 said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

kle4 said:

This will probably mark me as some kind of intellectual or cultural philistine, but what was Noam Chomsky famous for beack in the day? I see on twitter he's been vociferously claiming with a straight face Corbyn won the 2017 election, and people seem to be surprised.

Chomsky developed the idea of a universal grammar innate to humans, and that this explained how infants learned to speak. This contrasted with the behavioural psychologist BF Skinner's theory that language acquisition was due to external stimuli and reinforcement. Chomsky's version was generally accepted (although it was never clear to me as a mere undergraduate that they were arguing at the same level of explanation and that both could be true).

Today, however babies do it, reinforcement learning is back in fashion for AI language acquisition.

As more and more work is done at the neurological level, Chomsky's theories are rather falling out of fashion.

Would be surprising if they weren't given that they are so old now.
However, his takedown of behaviourism was a hugely influential, and, I would argue, net positive for society.

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

geoffw said:

On VPs, who would be DJT's apprentice running mate. Not Pence, obvs.

Pence would do it if asked, he's such a tool. But it is an interesting question - who offers him the most? Politico were arguing the other day that the evangelical wing does not seem as powerful, in the sense that Trump retains plenty of backing there despite his personal values, so what gaps does Trump have in his arsenal?

Does he need a woman? Someone even more extreme than himself so he looks less extreme? A token boring person as a sop to those who don't like him but will vote GOP regardless?

He should go full House of Cards on this and have Ivanka as his running mate or something, or Don Jr.

Oh come on, Eric is the really talented one.

It's just a shame Tiffany is ineligible. Maybe in 2028.

kle4 said:

geoffw said:

On VPs, who would be DJT's apprentice running mate. Not Pence, obvs.

Pence would do it if asked, he's such a tool. But it is an interesting question - who offers him the most? Politico were arguing the other day that the evangelical wing does not seem as powerful, in the sense that Trump retains plenty of backing there despite his personal values, so what gaps does Trump have in his arsenal?

Does he need a woman? Someone even more extreme than himself so he looks less extreme? A token boring person as a sop to those who don't like him but will vote GOP regardless?

He should go full House of Cards on this and have Ivanka as his running mate or something, or Don Jr.

It'll probably be Marjorie Taylor Greene. God help us if they win.

kle4 said:

rcs1000 said:

kle4 said:

geoffw said:

On VPs, who would be DJT's apprentice running mate. Not Pence, obvs.

Pence would do it if asked, he's such a tool. But it is an interesting question - who offers him the most? Politico were arguing the other day that the evangelical wing does not seem as powerful, in the sense that Trump retains plenty of backing there despite his personal values, so what gaps does Trump have in his arsenal?

Does he need a woman? Someone even more extreme than himself so he looks less extreme? A token boring person as a sop to those who don't like him but will vote GOP regardless?

He should go full House of Cards on this and have Ivanka as his running mate or something, or Don Jr.

Oh come on, Eric is the really talented one.

It's just a shame Tiffany is ineligible. Maybe in 2028.

Blimey, who would have thought Rickieeee and Bianca's kid would have such an illustrious future.

DougSeal said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Answer to the "big question" is hell yes.

IF Richard Nixon couldn't deep-six Spiro Agnew, and George Bush the Elder was stuck with Dan Quayle, then am certain (in my own cotton-pickin' mind) that Joe Biden will retain Kamala Harris.

For one thing, she has NOT been near the baggage for her POTUS, that Spiro and Danny Boy were for their running mates.

For another, the heavy lifting required to chuck America's first Black, Asian AND woman Veep over the side, strikes me as WAY more problematic than removing either Agnew or Quayle would have been, back in their days.

The first time I heard of Sipro Agnew was when I got given a book of anagrams for a birthday present when I was about 11. Very amusing but a little inappropriate.

Perhaps worth noting, that major reason why Richard Nixon selected Spiro Agnew as his running mate in 1968, was because at that time, Agnew was regarded as a LIBERAL Republican.

Because when he was elected Governor of Maryland in 1966, Agnew defeated a conservative, quasi-segregationist Democrat, winning in part due to support from African Americans.

Also in 1968, Agnew endorsed Nixon's leading GOP rival, Gov. Nelson Rockefeller, the poster-politico for Liberal Republicanism in the 1960s, for president. However, by the time the national convention rolled around, Agnew's ardor for Rocky had cooled (for personal reasons mostly) and Nixon picked up on that.

Yet another rationale for picking a guy named Spiro for VP, was to appeal to White ethnic (as the term was used mid-20th century) such as Irish, Italians, Slavs and also Greeks like Agnew (his father was Theophrastos Anagnostopoulos before immigrating to Baltimore). These voters, mostly Democratic since the New Deal, were concerned (and understatement) by rise of Black militancy and political clout in 1960s, and thus targeted by conservative Democrats like George Wallace AND conservative Republicans like Richard Nixon.

It wasn't until AFTER Agnew was nominated in the long, hot Summer of 1968, that he emerged as a barely-muzzled right-wing attack-dog.

dixiedean said:

rcs1000 said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

kle4 said:

This will probably mark me as some kind of intellectual or cultural philistine, but what was Noam Chomsky famous for beack in the day? I see on twitter he's been vociferously claiming with a straight face Corbyn won the 2017 election, and people seem to be surprised.

Chomsky developed the idea of a universal grammar innate to humans, and that this explained how infants learned to speak. This contrasted with the behavioural psychologist BF Skinner's theory that language acquisition was due to external stimuli and reinforcement. Chomsky's version was generally accepted (although it was never clear to me as a mere undergraduate that they were arguing at the same level of explanation and that both could be true).

Today, however babies do it, reinforcement learning is back in fashion for AI language acquisition.

As more and more work is done at the neurological level, Chomsky's theories are rather falling out of fashion.

Would be surprising if they weren't given that they are so old now.
However, his takedown of behaviourism was a hugely influential, and, I would argue, net positive for society.

He didn’t take it down.

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:

Northern_Al said:

Leon said:

Northern_Al said:

In defence of Biden, and setting aside his age. I agree with the view that he's under-rated.

Every time he's been tested, he's exceeded expectations. Whether it be mid-term elections, making major speeches, setting a clear course for the economy, or anything else I can think of he has, to coin a phrase, surprised on the upside.

He also has a quality that recent UK PMs have sorely lacked. He delegates a lot of stuff to intelligent, competent people who just get on with their jobs.

I just wish he were 50 rather than 80.

Afghanistan? Immigration? Opioids? Crime? Homelessness? Life expectancy?

I’m sorry, Biden has only outperformed because expectations were SO low. On many metrics he has been quite poor. Or really poor

However he HAS done well on pure GDP - ironically by being quite Trumpian. And he’s shown genuine mettle and determination abroad - Ukraine, AUKUS, alliance building. There he has been genuinely good. Infinitely better than Trump

But he is 80 and already wobbly

Some of those are somewhat harsh given he's only been in power for two years.

I'm Joe Biden, and since I became President people are living longer. And lots of you have stopped taking drugs.

Everyone saying Biden is surprisingly good seems to be forgetting the absolute catastrophe that was Afghanistan. It didn’t have to be that bad. One of the greatest foreign policy humiliations in recent American history. And by all accounts that WAS Biden


It’s one of the interesting aspects of the Netflix drama The Diplomat - which is obviously Democrat-leaning, I’d say - is how much severe critique is aimed at that debacle

And, of course, that emboldened Putin.

Quite. It’s an enormous black mark against Biden. All too conveniently overlooked

He has somewhat redeemed himself in his steadfast support for Ukraine.

Although there is a school of thought that the US has been far too timid in its level of support and that Biden is culpable for giving Putin the wrong signals at the summit in Geneva before the invasion.

OT https://formula1news.co.uk/monaco-grand-prix-at-high-risk-of-being-cancelled/

Looks like the Monaco GP might have to be cancelled because of power cuts caused by the French strikes. Given that it's the most boring race by far, let's hope so!

Leon said:

kle4 said:

geoffw said:

On VPs, who would be DJT's apprentice running mate. Not Pence, obvs.

Pence would do it if asked, he's such a tool. But it is an interesting question - who offers him the most? Politico were arguing the other day that the evangelical wing does not seem as powerful, in the sense that Trump retains plenty of backing there despite his personal values, so what gaps does Trump have in his arsenal?

Does he need a woman? Someone even more extreme than himself so he looks less extreme? A token boring person as a sop to those who don't like him but will vote GOP regardless?

He should go full House of Cards on this and have Ivanka as his running mate or something, or Don Jr.

Kari Lake is good. She’s a lot sharper than Kamala. She’s also quite crazy but compared to Trump…

Tucker Carlson would be great for the lolz

In 2016, loads of commentators said Trump would be great for the lolz. Be careful what you wish for!

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:

Northern_Al said:

In defence of Biden, and setting aside his age. I agree with the view that he's under-rated.

Every time he's been tested, he's exceeded expectations. Whether it be mid-term elections, making major speeches, setting a clear course for the economy, or anything else I can think of he has, to coin a phrase, surprised on the upside.

He also has a quality that recent UK PMs have sorely lacked. He delegates a lot of stuff to intelligent, competent people who just get on with their jobs.

I just wish he were 50 rather than 80.

Afghanistan? Immigration? Opioids? Crime? Homelessness? Life expectancy?

I’m sorry, Biden has only outperformed because expectations were SO low. On many metrics he has been quite poor. Or really poor

However he HAS done well on pure GDP - ironically by being quite Trumpian. And he’s shown genuine mettle and determination abroad - Ukraine, AUKUS, alliance building. There he has been genuinely good. Infinitely better than Trump

But he is 80 and already wobbly

I don't think homelessness is in the gift of the President.

Is big pharma?

The ANC have announced that they are taking South Africa out of the International Criminal Court.

Malmesbury said:

The ANC have announced that they are taking South Africa out of the International Criminal Court.

Well that's one way to not have an issue with the forthcoming Putin visit. Bit obvious though, looks simpering to him.

Leon said:

rcs1000 said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

kle4 said:

geoffw said:

On VPs, who would be DJT's apprentice running mate. Not Pence, obvs.

Pence would do it if asked, he's such a tool. But it is an interesting question - who offers him the most? Politico were arguing the other day that the evangelical wing does not seem as powerful, in the sense that Trump retains plenty of backing there despite his personal values, so what gaps does Trump have in his arsenal?

Does he need a woman? Someone even more extreme than himself so he looks less extreme? A token boring person as a sop to those who don't like him but will vote GOP regardless?

He should go full House of Cards on this and have Ivanka as his running mate or something, or Don Jr.

Trump should run with Ivanka and step down in two years so Ivanka becomes the first female president, and almost certainly the first Jewish one as well. For real lols, Ivanka should then switch parties back to Democrat.

And at the same time, James Murdoch will take the reigns at Fox, and drag it far to the left.

And then Fox will die

Fox is not popular because it’s “fox” and “run by the murdochs”. It’s popular because it’s right wing populism done well

For which there is a HUGE market

If fox abandon that and become another CNN they will get as dismal viewing figures as CNN

It’s like when they tried to cancel Joe Rogan for being unwoke. Turned out people liked Joe rogan unwoke and didn’t want some simpering woke replacement, and Rogan just did his podcast in a new and equally successful way

Is Fucker Carlson up to eating a bug on-air? Sure hope so!

BTW, whatever happened to Bill O'Reilly, who at one time was (also) a power in Wing-nutland?

Leon said:

rcs1000 said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

kle4 said:

geoffw said:

On VPs, who would be DJT's apprentice running mate. Not Pence, obvs.

Pence would do it if asked, he's such a tool. But it is an interesting question - who offers him the most? Politico were arguing the other day that the evangelical wing does not seem as powerful, in the sense that Trump retains plenty of backing there despite his personal values, so what gaps does Trump have in his arsenal?

Does he need a woman? Someone even more extreme than himself so he looks less extreme? A token boring person as a sop to those who don't like him but will vote GOP regardless?

He should go full House of Cards on this and have Ivanka as his running mate or something, or Don Jr.

Trump should run with Ivanka and step down in two years so Ivanka becomes the first female president, and almost certainly the first Jewish one as well. For real lols, Ivanka should then switch parties back to Democrat.

And at the same time, James Murdoch will take the reigns at Fox, and drag it far to the left.

And then Fox will die

Fox is not popular because it’s “fox” and “run by the murdochs”. It’s popular because it’s right wing populism done well

For which there is a HUGE market

If fox abandon that and become another CNN they will get as dismal viewing figures as CNN

It’s like when they tried to cancel Joe Rogan for being unwoke. Turned out people liked Joe rogan unwoke and didn’t want some simpering woke replacement, and Rogan just did his podcast in a new and equally successful way

As we saw with the Dominion fiasco, Fox is now in the ludicrous situation of having to lie to its own audience because otherwise they'd all defect to even more extreme networks. That can't be a sustainable model. A move to the centre in an effort to wean its audience off all the mad Trumpite conspiracy theories is probably the only long-term option. Otherwise the destination is pure David Icke.

kle4 said:

Malmesbury said:

The ANC have announced that they are taking South Africa out of the International Criminal Court.

Well that's one way to not have an issue with the forthcoming Putin visit. Bit obvious though, looks simpering to him.

I guess we’re back to boycotting South Africa then. It’s the ‘80s all over again.

Leon said:

rcs1000 said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

kle4 said:

geoffw said:

On VPs, who would be DJT's apprentice running mate. Not Pence, obvs.

Pence would do it if asked, he's such a tool. But it is an interesting question - who offers him the most? Politico were arguing the other day that the evangelical wing does not seem as powerful, in the sense that Trump retains plenty of backing there despite his personal values, so what gaps does Trump have in his arsenal?

Does he need a woman? Someone even more extreme than himself so he looks less extreme? A token boring person as a sop to those who don't like him but will vote GOP regardless?

He should go full House of Cards on this and have Ivanka as his running mate or something, or Don Jr.

Trump should run with Ivanka and step down in two years so Ivanka becomes the first female president, and almost certainly the first Jewish one as well. For real lols, Ivanka should then switch parties back to Democrat.

And at the same time, James Murdoch will take the reigns at Fox, and drag it far to the left.

And then Fox will die

Fox is not popular because it’s “fox” and “run by the murdochs”. It’s popular because it’s right wing populism done well

For which there is a HUGE market

If fox abandon that and become another CNN they will get as dismal viewing figures as CNN

It’s like when they tried to cancel Joe Rogan for being unwoke. Turned out people liked Joe rogan unwoke and didn’t want some simpering woke replacement, and Rogan just did his podcast in a new and equally successful way

I wasn't being serious.

kle4 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

..

Northern_Al said:

In defence of Biden, and setting aside his age. I agree with the view that he's under-rated.

Every time he's been tested, he's exceeded expectations. Whether it be mid-term elections, making major speeches, setting a clear course for the economy, or anything else I can think of he has, to coin a phrase, surprised on the upside.

He also has a quality that recent UK PMs have sorely lacked. He delegates a lot of stuff to intelligent, competent people who just get on with their jobs.

I just wish he were 50 rather than 80.

He also hates the UK, a neurosis that sadly has not mellowed with age. Combined with a biddable UK PM like Sunak (doubt Starmer will be a great improvement), his continued tenure is bad for us.

Didn't he back us fully over the Falklands, when others were being more wishy washy?

Yes, he was impressive in that interview. I don't know why he took our side, and it doesn't really matter - perhaps there was an anti-fascist perspective that he was aligning with. It remains true that his words and actions in Government are of someone who regards the UK as both his province, and a disliked foe. And we have nobody on our side who will raise so much as an eyebrow, much less an objection. Sunak makes Boris look almost Thatcheresque in his defence of the national interest.

algarkirk said:

Mexicanpete said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Labour leads by 2% in the Blue Wall. In 2019, Labour came THIRD in these seats.

Blue Wall Voting Intention (23 April):

Labour 34% (-3)
Conservative 32% (-3)
Liberal Democrat 24% (+4)
Green 5% (–)
Reform UK 5% (+1)
Other 1% (+1)


https://twitter.com/redfieldwilton/status/1650892423219019781?s=46

The LD +4 share is interesting.

Go back to your constituencies and prepare for Government.

Not quite. In 2019 the LDs got 27.45% in these seats.

But the Tories got 50%, so that's a 7.5% swing BEFORE any tactical voting (which I suspect will be fairly strong although time will tell).

Remember that, in 1997, Lib Dems went from 20 to 46 seats on a REDUCED vote share compared with 1992.

Leon said:

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:

Northern_Al said:

Leon said:

Northern_Al said:

In defence of Biden, and setting aside his age. I agree with the view that he's under-rated.

Every time he's been tested, he's exceeded expectations. Whether it be mid-term elections, making major speeches, setting a clear course for the economy, or anything else I can think of he has, to coin a phrase, surprised on the upside.

He also has a quality that recent UK PMs have sorely lacked. He delegates a lot of stuff to intelligent, competent people who just get on with their jobs.

I just wish he were 50 rather than 80.

Afghanistan? Immigration? Opioids? Crime? Homelessness? Life expectancy?

I’m sorry, Biden has only outperformed because expectations were SO low. On many metrics he has been quite poor. Or really poor

However he HAS done well on pure GDP - ironically by being quite Trumpian. And he’s shown genuine mettle and determination abroad - Ukraine, AUKUS, alliance building. There he has been genuinely good. Infinitely better than Trump

But he is 80 and already wobbly

Some of those are somewhat harsh given he's only been in power for two years.

I'm Joe Biden, and since I became President people are living longer. And lots of you have stopped taking drugs.

Everyone saying Biden is surprisingly good seems to be forgetting the absolute catastrophe that was Afghanistan. It didn’t have to be that bad. One of the greatest foreign policy humiliations in recent American history. And by all accounts that WAS Biden


It’s one of the interesting aspects of the Netflix drama The Diplomat - which is obviously Democrat-leaning, I’d say - is how much severe critique is aimed at that debacle

And, of course, that emboldened Putin.

Quite. It’s an enormous black mark against Biden. All too conveniently overlooked

He has somewhat redeemed himself in his steadfast support for Ukraine.

I’m not a fan of Biden - obvs - but he has been excellent on Ukraine. Indeed Afghanistan aside (a big aside) I think most of his best moments have been in foreign policy. He’s an old Cold War bro and it shows

He delegates well. He sends out good people. He doesn’t take stupid risks. He’s slowly marshalling a serious alliance against China. Etc

Trump would probably have abandoned Ukraine on day 1

Good grief don't big Biden up. You were doing that to Carlson only the other week and look what happened to him.

Sandpit said:

malcolmg said:

Sandpit said:

malcolmg said:

Former SNP treasurer Colin Beattie tells journalists he did not know about the party's purchase of a motorhome before being dragged away by minder, not allowed to talk to press when he got out of the meeting.
Nothing to see here move along.

With an active polis investigation underway, he needs a minder to pull the zip across his mouth.

They are starting to gight like ferrets in a sack. Flynn and Blackford has a dingdong on twitter re who told who when about auditors etc

At some point, their lawyer is going to confiscate their phones, and keep them all under house arrest in an hotel somewhere.

What will they all be like in six weeks’ time, when the audited accounts aren’t ready, and £100k a month in Short Money dries up?

Presumably at that point, they’re putting most of their own staff on voluntary furlough to avoid bankruptcy, unless they can find a donor or lender to cover the bill? But why would anyone hand money to an organisation with no accounts?

lol

SirNorfolkPassmore said:

tlg86 said:

Malmesbury said:

The ANC have announced that they are taking South Africa out of the International Criminal Court.

Time to kick them out of international sport again.

If that's the criterion, they'd be out in the cold with the United States, as well as China, Russia, and India.

Looking good for Team GB.

Lol, fair point. Does rather show the pointlessness of these international institutions.

Sandpit said:

malcolmg said:

Sandpit said:

malcolmg said:

Former SNP treasurer Colin Beattie tells journalists he did not know about the party's purchase of a motorhome before being dragged away by minder, not allowed to talk to press when he got out of the meeting.
Nothing to see here move along.

With an active polis investigation underway, he needs a minder to pull the zip across his mouth.

They are starting to gight like ferrets in a sack. Flynn and Blackford has a dingdong on twitter re who told who when about auditors etc

At some point, their lawyer is going to confiscate their phones, and keep them all under house arrest in an hotel somewhere.

What will they all be like in six weeks’ time, when the audited accounts aren’t ready, and £100k a month in Short Money dries up?

Presumably at that point, they’re putting most of their own staff on voluntary furlough to avoid bankruptcy, unless they can find a donor or lender to cover the bill? But why would anyone hand money to an organisation with no accounts?

They’ll blame the uNiOnIsTs and hand out the begging bowl for donations.

Malmesbury said:

Sandpit said:

malcolmg said:

Sandpit said:

malcolmg said:

Former SNP treasurer Colin Beattie tells journalists he did not know about the party's purchase of a motorhome before being dragged away by minder, not allowed to talk to press when he got out of the meeting.
Nothing to see here move along.

With an active polis investigation underway, he needs a minder to pull the zip across his mouth.

They are starting to gight like ferrets in a sack. Flynn and Blackford has a dingdong on twitter re who told who when about auditors etc

At some point, their lawyer is going to confiscate their phones, and keep them all under house arrest in an hotel somewhere.

What will they all be like in six weeks’ time, when the audited accounts aren’t ready, and £100k a month in Short Money dries up?

Presumably at that point, they’re putting most of their own staff on voluntary furlough to avoid bankruptcy, unless they can find a donor or lender to cover the bill? But why would anyone hand money to an organisation with no accounts?

That would be a rational way of proceeding.

So they won’t do that.

The initial police comment referred to matters being sub-judice, which I assume works in a similar manner in Scotland and England. That means that everyone involved says precisely nothing, at all, to anyone else, under penalty of perjury.

If an ill-informed journalist (insert joke here) doesn’t understand the rules and asks questions, you still say nothing whatsoever on the subject, lest you either perjure or incriminate yourself in court later.