Why I am now betting on LAB not getting a majority – politicalbetting.com

CarlottaVance said:

kle4 said:

CarlottaVance said:

Does anyone remember the monstrous fuss about how the UK extended the gap between the first and second dose of covid vaccines from 3 weeks to 12 weeks?

Turns out it may have saved 10,000 lives and 58,000 hospital admissions.

https://twitter.com/natashaloder/status/1648012329077059584?s=20

I honestly don't recall how big a fuss it caused. I do recall having some very brief concern, but it was one of those cases where the math was simple enough to grasp that it seemed to make perfect sense and things settled quickly - the benefits of getting more people with 1st dose coverage (which was still pretty good) done far outweighed maximising the number getting their second dose, with the chances a delay would not massively impact the efficacy of a second doses reasonable enough to chance.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/05/no-data-to-support-uk-delay-of-vaccines-second-dose-says-who

The British Medical Association described the move as “grossly unfair” to thousands of at-risk patients in England....

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/the-uk-is-delaying-second-pfizer/biontech-shot-heres-what-we-know.html

I would like to point out that I fully supported the move.

rcs1000 said:

CarlottaVance said:

kle4 said:

CarlottaVance said:

Does anyone remember the monstrous fuss about how the UK extended the gap between the first and second dose of covid vaccines from 3 weeks to 12 weeks?

Turns out it may have saved 10,000 lives and 58,000 hospital admissions.

https://twitter.com/natashaloder/status/1648012329077059584?s=20

I honestly don't recall how big a fuss it caused. I do recall having some very brief concern, but it was one of those cases where the math was simple enough to grasp that it seemed to make perfect sense and things settled quickly - the benefits of getting more people with 1st dose coverage (which was still pretty good) done far outweighed maximising the number getting their second dose, with the chances a delay would not massively impact the efficacy of a second doses reasonable enough to chance.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/05/no-data-to-support-uk-delay-of-vaccines-second-dose-says-who

The British Medical Association described the move as “grossly unfair” to thousands of at-risk patients in England....

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/the-uk-is-delaying-second-pfizer/biontech-shot-heres-what-we-know.html

I would like to point out that I fully supported the move.

Important to note that doctors aren't gods - they can be wrong, too.
Even in aggregate (though there, obviously, they are far more often right than not).

biggles said:

Nigelb said:

This is not the sound of a winning presidential candidate.
Though you could argue that Trump displays much the same petulance, I don’t think mini me-ing Trump works for him.

DeSantis openly speculating about what the state could build next to Walt Disney World:

“Someone even said, maybe you need another state prison…”
https://twitter.com/ScottGustin/status/1648013822492327937

Surely being seen to disrupt Disney is a vote loser in most places?

Bashing Disney is popular among Conservatives in the States.

“Big Mouse” is a huge political donor, the vast majority of which goes to Democrats and organisations pushing cultural stuff (think the American version of Stonewall, and BLM). Their parks are covered in Pride flags and staff wear pronoun badges, their movies are increasingly seen as preachy, that sort of thing.

Libertarians also really hate them, for their long-standing advocacy for extending intellectual property rights. One 1998 Bill that extended copyright terms was knows as “The Mickey Mouse Protection Act”, because Disney donated to so many politicians to get it through Congress, just before Mickey was about to become public domain.

In Florida specifically, they basically pay no taxes on the theme park and surrounding hotels, because the whole area is designated as a massive free zone. This is what DeSantis has been trying to rectify in recent months, and actively annoying them seems to be part of the plan.

edmundintokyo said:

Sandpit said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

US changes rules on tax credits for electric cars to cover American-made only
https://www.theregister.com/2023/04/17/us_ev_tax_credit/

More American protectionism from the home of capitalist free enterprise.

Because:

1. Why would you subsidise imports when you have a domestic industry?

2. Biden is just as Sinophobic as Trump, but he couches it in slightly different language.

More to the point, he's pandering to the same voters that Trump was.

How do you think the US dominated the chip industry - government funding.
The difference between the Biden and Trump on this is that the former recognises the massive economic benefit of subsidising your industry to undergo paradigm shifts.

Something the UK has failed at miserably in this case.

It's not pandering; it's economic common sense.

Nigelb said:

Sandpit said:

Gardenwalker said:

ChatGPT is basically crap at facts. It’s a total fabulist. It haven’t figured out why, but it lies without hesitation.

I say this as a someone who’s super excited generally about the opportunities presented by generative AI.

A system that, when asked for factual historical information, spits out random nonesense with an air of authority, is worse than not answering. It’s bloody dangerous to rely on it.

If you treat it as a very knowledgeable, but fallible person, then it's an extremely useful tool despite its limitations.
How is that description different from say a PB commenter ? Yet PB is also a useful source if information.

The difference is that its knowledge base is much wider, and it produces answers far more quickly,
Just be aware that if you're relying on it for anything important, checking its shit is essential.

I guess the difference between ChatGPT and PB, is that here we all mark each other’s homework, and if I post bollocks facts (as oppose to bollocks opinions, which is all the time!) I should expect to be (politely) called out on it.

edmundintokyo said:

Andy_JS said:

Is ChatGPT always supposed to give factually correct information? I just asked it about some constituency results at the 1992 general election and the information it gave was totally wrong. For example, it says the Labour majority in Walthamstow was 9,316 votes when in fact it was 3,022 votes. Maybe this type of information isn't its strong point, and Wikipedia can provide it. But still.

No. It has no notion of what factually correct information is. It's just grabbing a load of text from all over the place and splurging it together based on what has tended to be connected with what. It does pretty well all things considered though; It'll often come up with something that's like 90% correct and only 10% completely made up.

So, it's not that intelligent then?

Casino_Royale said:

Leon said:

@fpt for @rcs1000


Thailand's the place, mate

0% tax. Literally, 0%. They don't care what you earn abroad. Just have private health insurance (which you would have anyway). You can rent a glam apartment in lower Sukhumvit for $1500 a month, and it will have gym and pool and be uber luxe

Come and go as you please, in essence - because they want the money you spend and the business you might generate

Countries are REALLY competing for the nomads. This is going to be a massive thing in years to come

I just checked and you can effectively buy freedom of movement into Thailand for 20 years for £50,000 with an ultimate privilege visa.

Interesting.

Yep, @Leon is right, that there’s huge competition out there for the Nomads - mostly people in tech companies, media, global sales etc, who can literally work from anywhere. The sort of people who might go to the office once a quarter.

Here in UAE, a locally-paid salary of $100k, or a $550k property investment with no mortgage, gets you a Golden Visa for 10 years.

They also have a specific Digital Nomad visa, which requires an overseas salary of only $42k, but renews annually.

There’s no income tax or capital gains tax, VAT is 5%, corporation tax is 9%, and you’ll need to buy health insurance for yourself and any dependents you bring with you.

Casino_Royale said:

Andy_JS said:

O/T

I've just been watching the BBC idents that were used between 2002 and 2006, and the interesting thing about them is that they celebrate just about everything except anything that might be described as "provincial/rural England".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ydqN-yo_2B4

That's the BBC for you.

Utterly Met in every way.

Not entirely true. The Salsa class looks like it's happening in a generic provincial church/village hall, and the ballerinas are in the gorgeous Minack Theatre in Cornwall.

Definitely a bias towards the young, funky and urban, but not a complete one.

Casino_Royale said:

edmundintokyo said:

Andy_JS said:

Is ChatGPT always supposed to give factually correct information? I just asked it about some constituency results at the 1992 general election and the information it gave was totally wrong. For example, it says the Labour majority in Walthamstow was 9,316 votes when in fact it was 3,022 votes. Maybe this type of information isn't its strong point, and Wikipedia can provide it. But still.

No. It has no notion of what factually correct information is. It's just grabbing a load of text from all over the place and splurging it together based on what has tended to be connected with what. It does pretty well all things considered though; It'll often come up with something that's like 90% correct and only 10% completely made up.

So, it's not that intelligent then?

Depends what you're trying to do. If it's creativity, floating free from factual truth, then the simple rate at which AI bots can churn out possibilities is an opportunity and a threat to practicioners.

But there's still an important spark missing, something about truth at a sentence/paragraph level, where AI is risibly bad, dangerously so if you consider the confidence and polish of AI outputs.

Maybe that will emerge with bigger training sets and more processing power, but maybe it won't. For now it's showing why science and engineering (creativity is great, but it has to line up with reality) is best.

No wonder opinion mongers are by turn excited and terrified.

What a surprise, that new media quickly ends up with many of the same problems as old media:

https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-news/7m-dancers-sue-alleging-robert-shinn-runs-cult-1234701158/

TikTok management company that sounds rather like a cross between Scientology and a record label, with the performers themselves working long hours for little money under contract, while the people behind the company live in mansions and drive Ferraris.

Casino_Royale said:

Andy_JS said:

O/T

I've just been watching the BBC idents that were used between 2002 and 2006, and the interesting thing about them is that they celebrate just about everything except anything that might be described as "provincial/rural England".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ydqN-yo_2B4

That's the BBC for you.

Utterly Met in every way.

A highly niche whinge there not actually true if you view the clip. Cornwall is pretty provincial. If you like green stuff, look at the previous idents.

https://youtu.be/KwNBDbMqOA8

FF43 said:

Nigelb said:

Sandpit said:

Gardenwalker said:

ChatGPT is basically crap at facts. It’s a total fabulist. It haven’t figured out why, but it lies without hesitation.

I say this as a someone who’s super excited generally about the opportunities presented by generative AI.

A system that, when asked for factual historical information, spits out random nonesense with an air of authority, is worse than not answering. It’s bloody dangerous to rely on it.

If you treat it as a very knowledgeable, but fallible person, then it's an extremely useful tool despite its limitations.
How is that description different from say a PB commenter ? Yet PB is also a useful source if information.

The difference is that its knowledge base is much wider, and it produces answers far more quickly,
Just be aware that if you're relying on it for anything important, checking its shit is essential.

ChatGPT is a very smart and potentially very useful search tool. It falls down somewhat on the narratives it cobbles together, the bit that fascinates people. Tools are generally best when they do specific things.

Its strength compared with say Google search, which also pretty good, is in the follow ups. Often you don't initially know what question you want to ask. ChatGPT can adapt the search to your responses just like in a real interview.

Jonathan said:

MaxPB said:

Employment up another 160k, private sector pay up 6.9%, what recession?

Private sector driving inflation?

Not driving inflation because that’s 13% but easily putting a limit on the level it can fall to because of the cost impacts 7% increases will be having.

Remember the only way to kill inflation is to destroy the reason why costs are rising (via high unemployment that allows wages to remain stagnant and fall in real terms) and the conditions for that clearly don’t exist at the moment.
\it’s weird though as IT investment spending seems to have fallen off a cliff..

FF43 said:

Nigelb said:

Sandpit said:

Gardenwalker said:

ChatGPT is basically crap at facts. It’s a total fabulist. It haven’t figured out why, but it lies without hesitation.

I say this as a someone who’s super excited generally about the opportunities presented by generative AI.

A system that, when asked for factual historical information, spits out random nonesense with an air of authority, is worse than not answering. It’s bloody dangerous to rely on it.

If you treat it as a very knowledgeable, but fallible person, then it's an extremely useful tool despite its limitations.
How is that description different from say a PB commenter ? Yet PB is also a useful source if information.

The difference is that its knowledge base is much wider, and it produces answers far more quickly,
Just be aware that if you're relying on it for anything important, checking its shit is essential.

ChatGPT is a very smart and potentially very useful search tool. It falls down somewhat on the narratives it cobbles together, the bit that fascinates people. Tools are generally best when they do specific things.

ChatGPT isn't a search tool. The search tool is
still the search tool, and the "ChatGPT" bit summarizes text from the results.

mwadams said:

FF43 said:

Nigelb said:

Sandpit said:

Gardenwalker said:

ChatGPT is basically crap at facts. It’s a total fabulist. It haven’t figured out why, but it lies without hesitation.

I say this as a someone who’s super excited generally about the opportunities presented by generative AI.

A system that, when asked for factual historical information, spits out random nonesense with an air of authority, is worse than not answering. It’s bloody dangerous to rely on it.

If you treat it as a very knowledgeable, but fallible person, then it's an extremely useful tool despite its limitations.
How is that description different from say a PB commenter ? Yet PB is also a useful source if information.

The difference is that its knowledge base is much wider, and it produces answers far more quickly,
Just be aware that if you're relying on it for anything important, checking its shit is essential.

ChatGPT is a very smart and potentially very useful search tool. It falls down somewhat on the narratives it cobbles together, the bit that fascinates people. Tools are generally best when they do specific things.

ChatGPT isn't a search tool. The search tool is
still the search tool, and the "ChatGPT" bit summarizes text from the results.

While making the facts up if they don’t quite match the actual results.

eek said:

mwadams said:

FF43 said:

Nigelb said:

Sandpit said:

Gardenwalker said:

ChatGPT is basically crap at facts. It’s a total fabulist. It haven’t figured out why, but it lies without hesitation.

I say this as a someone who’s super excited generally about the opportunities presented by generative AI.

A system that, when asked for factual historical information, spits out random nonesense with an air of authority, is worse than not answering. It’s bloody dangerous to rely on it.

If you treat it as a very knowledgeable, but fallible person, then it's an extremely useful tool despite its limitations.
How is that description different from say a PB commenter ? Yet PB is also a useful source if information.

The difference is that its knowledge base is much wider, and it produces answers far more quickly,
Just be aware that if you're relying on it for anything important, checking its shit is essential.

ChatGPT is a very smart and potentially very useful search tool. It falls down somewhat on the narratives it cobbles together, the bit that fascinates people. Tools are generally best when they do specific things.

ChatGPT isn't a search tool. The search tool is
still the search tool, and the "ChatGPT" bit summarizes text from the results.

While making the facts up if they don’t quite match the actual results.

Sometimes completely inverting the meaning of the text by accident.

Which is why I still don't like it for unsupervised use cases or where you don't know what the answer should be.

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

Andy_JS said:

O/T

I've just been watching the BBC idents that were used between 2002 and 2006, and the interesting thing about them is that they celebrate just about everything except anything that might be described as "provincial/rural England".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ydqN-yo_2B4

That's the BBC for you.

Utterly Met in every way.

A highly niche whinge there not actually true if you view the clip. Cornwall is pretty provincial. If you like green stuff, look at the previous idents.

https://youtu.be/KwNBDbMqOA8

Any mention of the BBC will have the snowflakes racing each other to find the most faux offence.

felix said:

MaxPB said:

Employment up another 160k, private sector pay up 6.9%, what recession?

My Easter break saw retail, garden centres, supermarkets, esp M and S, bars and restaurants/cafes absolutely rammed. There was zero sign of anyone struggling anywhere. And of course both ways the flight was packed and each time I was in to land and out of the airports in 10 minutes...

Well done. We had a massive queue at immigration at Heathrow T2 on the way home, with a nice bit of racial profiling thrown in just to remind us that we were back in the land of Brexit and Stop the Boats.

eek said:

Jonathan said:

MaxPB said:

Employment up another 160k, private sector pay up 6.9%, what recession?

Private sector driving inflation?

Not driving inflation because that’s 13% but easily putting a limit on the level it can fall to because of the cost impacts 7% increases will be having.

Remember the only way to kill inflation is to destroy the reason why costs are rising (via high unemployment that allows wages to remain stagnant and fall in real terms) and the conditions for that clearly don’t exist at the moment.
\it’s weird though as IT investment spending seems to have fallen off a cliff..

Meanwhile,

Food inflation increased to 17.2 per cent on average in the year to March, up from 16.5 per cent in the year to February, the consumer group Which? said.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/d51dc7ac-dd62-11ed-9cc2-0f7e26ed83eb?shareToken=72aab801645b0097cdf730526c8d65b3

There's something curious going on where prices are rising faster than wages, are still accelerating in some cases, and yet some commentators are saying "this is fine".

Two nations and all that, but how is this compatible with rising living standards? Experienced GDP vs. statistical GDP, if you like.

eek said:

mwadams said:

FF43 said:

Nigelb said:

Sandpit said:

Gardenwalker said:

ChatGPT is basically crap at facts. It’s a total fabulist. It haven’t figured out why, but it lies without hesitation.

I say this as a someone who’s super excited generally about the opportunities presented by generative AI.

A system that, when asked for factual historical information, spits out random nonesense with an air of authority, is worse than not answering. It’s bloody dangerous to rely on it.

If you treat it as a very knowledgeable, but fallible person, then it's an extremely useful tool despite its limitations.
How is that description different from say a PB commenter ? Yet PB is also a useful source if information.

The difference is that its knowledge base is much wider, and it produces answers far more quickly,
Just be aware that if you're relying on it for anything important, checking its shit is essential.

ChatGPT is a very smart and potentially very useful search tool. It falls down somewhat on the narratives it cobbles together, the bit that fascinates people. Tools are generally best when they do specific things.

ChatGPT isn't a search tool. The search tool is
still the search tool, and the "ChatGPT" bit summarizes text from the results.

While making the facts up if they don’t quite match the actual results.

It's trained on very fallible data. Considering that, it's remarkable how good it is.

Nigelb said:

eek said:

mwadams said:

FF43 said:

Nigelb said:

Sandpit said:

Gardenwalker said:

ChatGPT is basically crap at facts. It’s a total fabulist. It haven’t figured out why, but it lies without hesitation.

I say this as a someone who’s super excited generally about the opportunities presented by generative AI.

A system that, when asked for factual historical information, spits out random nonesense with an air of authority, is worse than not answering. It’s bloody dangerous to rely on it.

If you treat it as a very knowledgeable, but fallible person, then it's an extremely useful tool despite its limitations.
How is that description different from say a PB commenter ? Yet PB is also a useful source if information.

The difference is that its knowledge base is much wider, and it produces answers far more quickly,
Just be aware that if you're relying on it for anything important, checking its shit is essential.

ChatGPT is a very smart and potentially very useful search tool. It falls down somewhat on the narratives it cobbles together, the bit that fascinates people. Tools are generally best when they do specific things.

ChatGPT isn't a search tool. The search tool is
still the search tool, and the "ChatGPT" bit summarizes text from the results.

While making the facts up if they don’t quite match the actual results.

It's trained on very fallible data. Considering that, it's remarkable how good it is.

In the examples given above on voting results, that’s clearly not the problem. The data is accurate. The nature of how an LLM works means that it makes these sorts of errors.

Sandpit said:

It’s good that Western governments can see limits to taxing the middle classes, because the level of income or “wealth” at which people can choose to emigrate, is now much lower than it was only a few years ago.

Somebody tell the SNP

RochdalePioneers said:

When we had stagflation in the 1970s the politicians were man enough to point at it, say "that is a problem" and do unpopular things to make it go away. Now? Simply say things which aren't true (such as inflation is falling) and try and make out anyone seeing reality is a liar.

The whole point of the article linked upthread that felix missed.

This government is dependent on innumeracy. If voters could count the Tories are fucked.

Sandpit said:

Foxy said:

Sandpit said:

Casino_Royale said:

Leon said:

@fpt for @rcs1000


Thailand's the place, mate

0% tax. Literally, 0%. They don't care what you earn abroad. Just have private health insurance (which you would have anyway). You can rent a glam apartment in lower Sukhumvit for $1500 a month, and it will have gym and pool and be uber luxe

Come and go as you please, in essence - because they want the money you spend and the business you might generate

Countries are REALLY competing for the nomads. This is going to be a massive thing in years to come

I just checked and you can effectively buy freedom of movement into Thailand for 20 years for £50,000 with an ultimate privilege visa.

Interesting.

Yep, @Leon is right, that there’s huge competition out there for the Nomads - mostly people in tech companies, media, global sales etc, who can literally work from anywhere. The sort of people who might go to the office once a quarter.

Here in UAE, a locally-paid salary of $100k, or a $550k property investment with no mortgage, gets you a Golden Visa for 10 years.

They also have a specific Digital Nomad visa, which requires an overseas salary of only $42k, but renews annually.

There’s no income tax or capital gains tax, VAT is 5%, corporation tax is 9%, and you’ll need to buy health insurance for yourself and any dependents you bring with you.

"Citizens of Nowhere" with their rootless lack of interest in contributing anything to the nation that they temporarily live in, and with no intention of assimilating into. Just there until someone makes a better offer, and keeping their wealth abroad.

At one time we had a government that was opposed to such things, but Freedom of Movement for the rich only certainly seems to suit some.

Sounds rather like the expensively-trained NHS doctors, who want to move to Australia or Canada, because their million-pound taxpayer-funded pension pot just isn’t enough for them?

It’s good that Western governments can see limits to taxing the middle classes, because the level of income or “wealth” at which people can choose to emigrate, is now much lower than it was only a few years ago.

It isn't the PAYE middle classes that are dodging tax this way, it is those who can offshore their earnings.

I am all in favour of migration. I come from a family that migrated in the nineteenth century and migrated back in the twentieth. We didn't shirk our tax and other social responsibilities either here or abroad though.

Leon seems to want to cry crocodile tears for the Red Wall, but not pay any tax to mitigate their social needs.

Scott_xP said:

RochdalePioneers said:

When we had stagflation in the 1970s the politicians were man enough to point at it, say "that is a problem" and do unpopular things to make it go away. Now? Simply say things which aren't true (such as inflation is falling) and try and make out anyone seeing reality is a liar.

The whole point of the article linked upthread that felix missed.

This government is dependent on innumeracy. If voters could count the Tories are fucked.

Who said Remain lost because many of its advocates despised large chunks of the electorate?

BlancheLivermore said:

Quiche has a French name, but..

"Quiche is considered a French dish; however, using eggs and cream in pastry was practised in English cuisine at least as early as the 14th century and Italian cuisine at least as early as the 13th century. Recipes for eggs and cream baked in pastry containing meat, fish and fruit are referred to Crustardes of flesh and Crustade in the 14th-century The Forme of Cury and in 15th-century cookbooks, such as the Italian Libro de arte coquinaria."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quiche#History

Aka a flan.

A term which moderately amusingly comes from the Old French.

China's GDP grew by 4.5 percent in quarter
https://m.koreatimes.co.kr/pages/article.asp?newsIdx=349260

Stuartinromford said:

eek said:

Jonathan said:

MaxPB said:

Employment up another 160k, private sector pay up 6.9%, what recession?

Private sector driving inflation?

Not driving inflation because that’s 13% but easily putting a limit on the level it can fall to because of the cost impacts 7% increases will be having.

Remember the only way to kill inflation is to destroy the reason why costs are rising (via high unemployment that allows wages to remain stagnant and fall in real terms) and the conditions for that clearly don’t exist at the moment.
\it’s weird though as IT investment spending seems to have fallen off a cliff..

Meanwhile,

Food inflation increased to 17.2 per cent on average in the year to March, up from 16.5 per cent in the year to February, the consumer group Which? said.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/d51dc7ac-dd62-11ed-9cc2-0f7e26ed83eb?shareToken=72aab801645b0097cdf730526c8d65b3

There's something curious going on where prices are rising faster than wages, are still accelerating in some cases, and yet some commentators are saying "this is fine".

Two nations and all that, but how is this compatible with rising living standards? Experienced GDP vs. statistical GDP, if you like.

Food inflation will have somewhat of a lag effect because of items like fertiliser - 2022 food was produced using fertiliser bought in 2021, 2023 food is being used with fertiliser bought in 2022 and the price of the latter surged because of the effects of the Russian-Ukraine conflict. How much of the current price rises is down to the fertiliser effect, I'm not sure but I would imagine it is significant.

Ghedebrav said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

felix said:

Scott_xP said:

No matter that the current incumbent had a maths geek past; that just makes him the sort of guy whose political bedfellows, probably while wearing tailcoats, would have thrown in a pond. Never have the sniggeringly innumerate been more powerful than they have been for the past decade. And never have those in power been more inclined to ignore or disparage anyone who told them the numbers just didn’t add up.

I don’t want to bang on about Brexit. We’re over Brexit. Recall, though, that every credible economist in the world told us how much it would hurt, and the winning side got away with telling them to bog off back to their spreadsheets. And it didn’t end there. Would a party that valued the ability to count have elected a bumbling Balliol Classicist who had to text his chief science adviser, as Johnson did mid-pandemic, to learn the difference between a ratio and a percentage? Would it have replaced him with Liz Truss?

Does the maths of small boats — 45,756 arrivals in 2022 — offer any justification for putting 500 people on a barge, or one day sending a couple of hundred more to Rwanda?

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/its-ministers-who-have-the-anti-maths-mindset-7ldr5ht3s

"I don't want to bang on about Brexit ' but.,,....................,.
.........bang.......bang......bang......

Getting lectured in numeracy bu someone who thinks that 4% and 0.08% are the same is kind of galling.

I do understand a bit of the impetus behind 'maths to 18', but (setting aside the chronic shortage of maths teachers), it's things like ratios, logic, statistics etc. that seem most relevant and helpful in everyday life (that and working our darts finishes). Strikes me maybe as an curriculum issue in the KS2/3/4 rather than 'do two more years of trig'.

In passing, I've no doubt that I learned more useful maths in my archaeology degree - a module on applied use of statistics - than I did in my GCSE maths.

Archaeology, along with geography, is one of the few superpower degrees. If I have an opportunity to hire a grad in those subjects, I jump at it. Most are maths literate, critical thinkers with an ability to solve both practical & theoretical problems, work in teams, and string a sentence together.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

noneoftheabove said:

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

Andy_JS said:

O/T

I've just been watching the BBC idents that were used between 2002 and 2006, and the interesting thing about them is that they celebrate just about everything except anything that might be described as "provincial/rural England".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ydqN-yo_2B4

That's the BBC for you.

Utterly Met in every way.

A highly niche whinge there not actually true if you view the clip. Cornwall is pretty provincial. If you like green stuff, look at the previous idents.

https://youtu.be/KwNBDbMqOA8

Any mention of the BBC will have the snowflakes racing each other to find the most faux offence.

You have to admire the determination to be outraged. It must be exhausting to live life on kind of hair trigger.

Rather ironic given the endless amount of stuff that wokesters seem to get wound up about...

Ghedebrav said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

felix said:

Scott_xP said:

No matter that the current incumbent had a maths geek past; that just makes him the sort of guy whose political bedfellows, probably while wearing tailcoats, would have thrown in a pond. Never have the sniggeringly innumerate been more powerful than they have been for the past decade. And never have those in power been more inclined to ignore or disparage anyone who told them the numbers just didn’t add up.

I don’t want to bang on about Brexit. We’re over Brexit. Recall, though, that every credible economist in the world told us how much it would hurt, and the winning side got away with telling them to bog off back to their spreadsheets. And it didn’t end there. Would a party that valued the ability to count have elected a bumbling Balliol Classicist who had to text his chief science adviser, as Johnson did mid-pandemic, to learn the difference between a ratio and a percentage? Would it have replaced him with Liz Truss?

Does the maths of small boats — 45,756 arrivals in 2022 — offer any justification for putting 500 people on a barge, or one day sending a couple of hundred more to Rwanda?

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/its-ministers-who-have-the-anti-maths-mindset-7ldr5ht3s

"I don't want to bang on about Brexit ' but.,,....................,.
.........bang.......bang......bang......

Getting lectured in numeracy bu someone who thinks that 4% and 0.08% are the same is kind of galling.

I do understand a bit of the impetus behind 'maths to 18', but (setting aside the chronic shortage of maths teachers), it's things like ratios, logic, statistics etc. that seem most relevant and helpful in everyday life (that and working our darts finishes). Strikes me maybe as an curriculum issue in the KS2/3/4 rather than 'do two more years of trig'.

In passing, I've no doubt that I learned more useful maths in my archaeology degree - a module on applied use of statistics - than I did in my GCSE maths.

Maths is really great and important but this initiative smells strongly of gimmick and an effort to distract from the real problem in education - years of chronic underfunding.

Andy_JS said:

Is ChatGPT always supposed to give factually correct information? I just asked it about some constituency results at the 1992 general election and the information it gave was totally wrong. For example, it says the Labour majority in Walthamstow was 9,316 votes when in fact it was 3,022 votes. Maybe this type of information isn't its strong point, and Wikipedia can provide it. But still.

I think it was posted here yesterday, or possibly seen on Twitter, but someone asked ChatGP for a list of torrent websites and received a lecture on how downloading torrents was illegal. So they next asked given it’s illegal can I have a list of websites to avoid - and was promptly given one!

felix said:

MaxPB said:

Employment up another 160k, private sector pay up 6.9%, what recession?

My Easter break saw retail, garden centres, supermarkets, esp M and S, bars and restaurants/cafes absolutely rammed. There was zero sign of anyone struggling anywhere. And of course both ways the flight was packed and each time I was in to land and out of the airports in 10 minutes...

So having had the airport queues explained and the cause and circumstances of the queues a week or two ago you are going to ignore it. The queues usually come about when you coincide with large planes from non EU places, typically to major airports. I have flown and like you just walked through border control, yet at Lisbon I waited 3 hours while the EU gate was empty because we landed at the same time as flights from the USA .

Same principle as coaches at ports. If you introduce a bottle neck that wasn't there before there will be queues. It isn't rocket science.

TheKitchenCabinet said:

Stuartinromford said:

eek said:

Jonathan said:

MaxPB said:

Employment up another 160k, private sector pay up 6.9%, what recession?

Private sector driving inflation?

Not driving inflation because that’s 13% but easily putting a limit on the level it can fall to because of the cost impacts 7% increases will be having.

Remember the only way to kill inflation is to destroy the reason why costs are rising (via high unemployment that allows wages to remain stagnant and fall in real terms) and the conditions for that clearly don’t exist at the moment.
\it’s weird though as IT investment spending seems to have fallen off a cliff..

Meanwhile,

Food inflation increased to 17.2 per cent on average in the year to March, up from 16.5 per cent in the year to February, the consumer group Which? said.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/d51dc7ac-dd62-11ed-9cc2-0f7e26ed83eb?shareToken=72aab801645b0097cdf730526c8d65b3

There's something curious going on where prices are rising faster than wages, are still accelerating in some cases, and yet some commentators are saying "this is fine".

Two nations and all that, but how is this compatible with rising living standards? Experienced GDP vs. statistical GDP, if you like.

Food inflation will have somewhat of a lag effect because of items like fertiliser - 2022 food was produced using fertiliser bought in 2021, 2023 food is being used with fertiliser bought in 2022 and the price of the latter surged because of the effects of the Russian-Ukraine conflict. How much of the current price rises is down to the fertiliser effect, I'm not sure but I would imagine it is significant.

Meat prices are sky high and getting ever higher.

CarlottaVance said:

Andy_JS said:

Is ChatGPT always supposed to give factually correct information? I just asked it about some constituency results at the 1992 general election and the information it gave was totally wrong. For example, it says the Labour majority in Walthamstow was 9,316 votes when in fact it was 3,022 votes. Maybe this type of information isn't its strong point, and Wikipedia can provide it. But still.

I think it was posted here yesterday, or possibly seen on Twitter, but someone asked ChatGP for a list of torrent websites and received a lecture on how downloading torrents was illegal. So they next asked given it’s illegal can I have a list of websites to avoid - and was promptly given one!

In a person that would be viewed as malicious compliance.

mwadams said:

Ghedebrav said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

felix said:

Scott_xP said:

No matter that the current incumbent had a maths geek past; that just makes him the sort of guy whose political bedfellows, probably while wearing tailcoats, would have thrown in a pond. Never have the sniggeringly innumerate been more powerful than they have been for the past decade. And never have those in power been more inclined to ignore or disparage anyone who told them the numbers just didn’t add up.

I don’t want to bang on about Brexit. We’re over Brexit. Recall, though, that every credible economist in the world told us how much it would hurt, and the winning side got away with telling them to bog off back to their spreadsheets. And it didn’t end there. Would a party that valued the ability to count have elected a bumbling Balliol Classicist who had to text his chief science adviser, as Johnson did mid-pandemic, to learn the difference between a ratio and a percentage? Would it have replaced him with Liz Truss?

Does the maths of small boats — 45,756 arrivals in 2022 — offer any justification for putting 500 people on a barge, or one day sending a couple of hundred more to Rwanda?

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/its-ministers-who-have-the-anti-maths-mindset-7ldr5ht3s

"I don't want to bang on about Brexit ' but.,,....................,.
.........bang.......bang......bang......

Getting lectured in numeracy bu someone who thinks that 4% and 0.08% are the same is kind of galling.

I do understand a bit of the impetus behind 'maths to 18', but (setting aside the chronic shortage of maths teachers), it's things like ratios, logic, statistics etc. that seem most relevant and helpful in everyday life (that and working our darts finishes). Strikes me maybe as an curriculum issue in the KS2/3/4 rather than 'do two more years of trig'.

In passing, I've no doubt that I learned more useful maths in my archaeology degree - a module on applied use of statistics - than I did in my GCSE maths.

Archaeology, along with geography, is one of the few superpower degrees. If I have an opportunity to hire a grad in those subjects, I jump at it. Most are maths literate, critical thinkers with an ability to solve both practical & theoretical problems, work in teams, and string a sentence together.

Declaring an obvious interest (!) I tend to agree. All the stuff you say is correct, and a big part of archaeology is interpreting incomplete data - which means looking at past research, making decisions based on best possible evidence rather than seeking perfect evidence. Much of working life is like that - we play poker, not chess.

I work in marketing now, but it's interesting how much the raw skills of archaeology transfer over.

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Stuartinromford said:

Casino_Royale said:

Andy_JS said:

O/T

I've just been watching the BBC idents that were used between 2002 and 2006, and the interesting thing about them is that they celebrate just about everything except anything that might be described as "provincial/rural England".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ydqN-yo_2B4

That's the BBC for you.

Utterly Met in every way.

Not entirely true. The Salsa class looks like it's happening in a generic provincial church/village hall, and the ballerinas are in the gorgeous Minack Theatre in Cornwall.

Definitely a bias towards the young, funky and urban, but not a complete one.

You don't get much more provincial than the Minack, as anyone who has walked or driven there will know!

PB is home of confirmation bias. You see what you want to see.

Not really. Minack is lovely but one token bit does not a representation make.

It's like those who used to argue that the BBC couldn't be institutionally left-wing because Jeremy Clarkson was on it.

This entire discussion is about token bits if the BBC output.

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Stuartinromford said:

Casino_Royale said:

Andy_JS said:

O/T

I've just been watching the BBC idents that were used between 2002 and 2006, and the interesting thing about them is that they celebrate just about everything except anything that might be described as "provincial/rural England".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ydqN-yo_2B4

That's the BBC for you.

Utterly Met in every way.

Not entirely true. The Salsa class looks like it's happening in a generic provincial church/village hall, and the ballerinas are in the gorgeous Minack Theatre in Cornwall.

Definitely a bias towards the young, funky and urban, but not a complete one.

You don't get much more provincial than the Minack, as anyone who has walked or driven there will know!

PB is home of confirmation bias. You see what you want to see.

Not really. Minack is lovely but one token bit does not a representation make.

It's like those who used to argue that the BBC couldn't be institutionally left-wing because Jeremy Clarkson was on it.

Qed

Been there ..fab place

Stuartinromford said:

eek said:

Jonathan said:

MaxPB said:

Employment up another 160k, private sector pay up 6.9%, what recession?

Private sector driving inflation?

Not driving inflation because that’s 13% but easily putting a limit on the level it can fall to because of the cost impacts 7% increases will be having.

Remember the only way to kill inflation is to destroy the reason why costs are rising (via high unemployment that allows wages to remain stagnant and fall in real terms) and the conditions for that clearly don’t exist at the moment.
\it’s weird though as IT investment spending seems to have fallen off a cliff..

Meanwhile,

Food inflation increased to 17.2 per cent on average in the year to March, up from 16.5 per cent in the year to February, the consumer group Which? said.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/d51dc7ac-dd62-11ed-9cc2-0f7e26ed83eb?shareToken=72aab801645b0097cdf730526c8d65b3

There's something curious going on where prices are rising faster than wages, are still accelerating in some cases, and yet some commentators are saying "this is fine".

Two nations and all that, but how is this compatible with rising living standards? Experienced GDP vs. statistical GDP, if you like.

That article also says that prices are starting to fall, though.

To some extent: inflation is a lagging indicator.

felix said:

kjh said:

felix said:

MaxPB said:

Employment up another 160k, private sector pay up 6.9%, what recession?

My Easter break saw retail, garden centres, supermarkets, esp M and S, bars and restaurants/cafes absolutely rammed. There was zero sign of anyone struggling anywhere. And of course both ways the flight was packed and each time I was in to land and out of the airports in 10 minutes...

So having had the airport queues explained and the cause and circumstances of the queues a week or two ago you are going to ignore it. The queues usually come about when you coincide with large planes from non EU places, typically to major airports. I have flown and like you just walked through border control, yet at Lisbon I waited 3 hours while the EU gate was empty because we landed at the same time as flights from the USA .

Same principle as coaches at ports. If you introduce a bottle neck that wasn't there before there will be queues. It isn't rocket science.

Indeed and the average Brit flying to typical EU holiday destinations has a different experience. BTW I make it a rule to ignore patronizing pricks but I make an exception for you. Once.

I'm flying via Schiphol in a couple of weeks to Paris (cheaper and more convenient than the other options). Because of the timing of the flight the queue to enter Schengen will take 2 minutes max.

Equally the last flight I take French border control was at the gate to stamp our passports. That was mainly because at CDG the biggest planes can only land at an international terminal so everyone had to leave France to get to the plane and return to France when they entered it but that spoils the story somewhat.

kjh said:

TheKitchenCabinet said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

noneoftheabove said:

Jonathan said:

Casino_Royale said:

Andy_JS said:

O/T

I've just been watching the BBC idents that were used between 2002 and 2006, and the interesting thing about them is that they celebrate just about everything except anything that might be described as "provincial/rural England".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ydqN-yo_2B4

That's the BBC for you.

Utterly Met in every way.

A highly niche whinge there not actually true if you view the clip. Cornwall is pretty provincial. If you like green stuff, look at the previous idents.

https://youtu.be/KwNBDbMqOA8

Any mention of the BBC will have the snowflakes racing each other to find the most faux offence.

You have to admire the determination to be outraged. It must be exhausting to live life on kind of hair trigger.

Rather ironic given the endless amount of stuff that wokesters seem to get wound up about...

Really? Name one here? Yet we get bombarded by the small anti woke brigade here endlessly.

Indeed, the ONLY people who ever mention woke are the sad old f*cks who see the world moving on and don't like it.

felix said:

kjh said:

felix said:

MaxPB said:

Employment up another 160k, private sector pay up 6.9%, what recession?

My Easter break saw retail, garden centres, supermarkets, esp M and S, bars and restaurants/cafes absolutely rammed. There was zero sign of anyone struggling anywhere. And of course both ways the flight was packed and each time I was in to land and out of the airports in 10 minutes...

So having had the airport queues explained and the cause and circumstances of the queues a week or two ago you are going to ignore it. The queues usually come about when you coincide with large planes from non EU places, typically to major airports. I have flown and like you just walked through border control, yet at Lisbon I waited 3 hours while the EU gate was empty because we landed at the same time as flights from the USA .

Same principle as coaches at ports. If you introduce a bottle neck that wasn't there before there will be queues. It isn't rocket science.

Indeed and the average Brit flying to typical EU holiday destinations has a different experience. BTW I make it a rule to ignore patronizing pricks but I make an exception for you. Once.

How was that patronising. We did discuss it a few weeks ago. Several pointed out the same thing then. You have ignored it. We have discussed stuff before and always pleasantly. We have both liked each others posts. Apologies if it came over patronising. It wasn't intended to be. I was just posting what I thought were facts and wasn't intending to insult.

Re average Brits- Do you not think average Brits use Dover, Rome airport, Heathrow, Stockholm, Paris, Lisbon, Madrid, etc, etc, etc?

Hands look odd