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Why I am now betting on LAB not getting a majority – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,164
edited April 2023 in General
imageWhy I am now betting on LAB not getting a majority – politicalbetting.com

Tonight’s R&W poll has the LAB lead down to just 13% which is the lowest it has been since Sunak became PM. This is in line with the trend from other pollsters where all but two have the margin in the teens – not the 20s. The two exceptions have never been tested in a real election,

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,843
    First like Labour
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664
    Second like the Tories
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    LAB won't get an overall majority 👍
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,723
    Oh dear Leeds lose 1 6 to Liverpool
    Relegation beckons ?
  • EastwingerEastwinger Posts: 354
    Still much water to flow under Westminster Bridge before this is done and dusted.
    Events dear boy events.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,339
    @fpt for @rcs1000


    Thailand's the place, mate

    0% tax. Literally, 0%. They don't care what you earn abroad. Just have private health insurance (which you would have anyway). You can rent a glam apartment in lower Sukhumvit for $1500 a month, and it will have gym and pool and be uber luxe

    Come and go as you please, in essence - because they want the money you spend and the business you might generate

    Countries are REALLY competing for the nomads. This is going to be a massive thing in years to come
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,885
    Evening ll :)

    The interesting part of the R&W polling was women only giving Labour an eight point lead but 20% were Don't Knows (compared to 11% of men).

    It's been documented Starmer has a "woman problem" but that's a big pool of potential voters (around 10% of the total) up for grabs. Presumably they are a big part of the Conservative DKs as well.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,720
    Glad to see OGH back in the saddle
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664
    squareroot2 said:

    Oh dear Leeds lose 1 6 to Liverpool
    Relegation beckons ?

    Doesn't really make much difference, at that end of the table losing is par, a draw or a win is a bonus.

    I can't see the current bottom three (Southampton, Leicester, Forest) escaping tbh.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,014
    My prediction remains 2010 in reverse. Hung Parliament with Labour most seats but no majority
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,660
    Demography is destiny. Every election from 2010 has fucked me and I don't see this changing for another 10-15 years.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    Best wishes to OGH (catching up from previous thread)
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    geoffw said:

    Glad to see OGH back in the saddle

    We have illness in the family which is concerning
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,675
    stodge said:

    Evening ll :)

    The interesting part of the R&W polling was women only giving Labour an eight point lead but 20% were Don't Knows (compared to 11% of men).

    It's been documented Starmer has a "woman problem" but that's a big pool of potential voters (around 10% of the total) up for grabs. Presumably they are a big part of the Conservative DKs as well.

    As I recall in pretty much every poll over the years, the number of women saying Don't Know is twice that of men. Indecisive or open minded? Choose your preferred adjective, but it seems a perennial feature.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,675
    MikeSmithson said:

    geoffw said:

    Glad to see OGH back in the saddle

    We have illness in the family which is concerning
    Sorry to hear. Best wishes.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,577
    Benpointer said:

    squareroot2 said:

    Oh dear Leeds lose 1 6 to Liverpool
    Relegation beckons ?

    Doesn't really make much difference, at that end of the table losing is par, a draw or a win is a bonus.

    I can't see the current bottom three (Southampton, Leicester, Forest) escaping tbh.
    Southampton down, now 2 from 4 of Leicester, Forest, Everton and Leeds.

    It's a brave person says Everton and Leeds both avoid the drop.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,843
    MikeSmithson said:

    geoffw said:

    Glad to see OGH back in the saddle

    We have illness in the family which is concerning
    Hope it's not too serious.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Interesting perspective on the SNP's struggle to find an auditor:

    Did BBC Seven Days yesterday and @jessicainsall - accountant and former auditor - gave a really interesting perspective on why the SNP has been struggling to find a replacement auditor. Have a listen 👇🏼 A perspective I hadn’t picked up before. @BBCScotNine[VIDEO]

    https://twitter.com/Cat_Headley/status/1648041066417778703?s=20

    1) Auditors are businesses and have to run at a profit - if you're doing an Audit and not making a profit why are you doing the audit? Raises question mark over your impartiality.
    2) The SNP's accounts may be in a bit of a mess - so an audit is going to be expensive.
    3) Does the SNP have the cash to pay for the audit?
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,723
    Benpointer said:

    squareroot2 said:

    Oh dear Leeds lose 1 6 to Liverpool
    Relegation beckons ?

    Doesn't really make much difference, at that end of the table losing is par, a draw or a win is a bonus.

    I can't see the current bottom three (Southampton, Leicester, Forest) escaping tbh.
    Hmmm yet to be seen.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,675
    MarqueeMark said:

    Benpointer said:

    squareroot2 said:

    Oh dear Leeds lose 1 6 to Liverpool
    Relegation beckons ?

    Doesn't really make much difference, at that end of the table losing is par, a draw or a win is a bonus.

    I can't see the current bottom three (Southampton, Leicester, Forest) escaping tbh.
    Southampton down, now 2 from 4 of Leicester, Forest, Everton and Leeds.

    It's a brave person says Everton and Leeds both avoid the drop.
    I am encouraged by our second half against Man City yesterday, but we need some points this weekend. Our trip to Leeds hopefully is fruitful next Tuesday too.

    I have gone all green on Leicesters relegation.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,885
    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    Evening ll :)

    The interesting part of the R&W polling was women only giving Labour an eight point lead but 20% were Don't Knows (compared to 11% of men).

    It's been documented Starmer has a "woman problem" but that's a big pool of potential voters (around 10% of the total) up for grabs. Presumably they are a big part of the Conservative DKs as well.

    As I recall in pretty much every poll over the years, the number of women saying Don't Know is twice that of men. Indecisive or open minded? Choose your preferred adjective, but it seems a perennial feature.
    Yes, I hadn't noticed. Omnisis has 26% DK among women - the VI is 32% Labour, 26% DK, 16% Conservative. 13% DK among men. The Omnisis split of the 2019 Conservative vote was 47% Tory, 21% DK and 14% Labour
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,675
    stodge said:

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    Evening ll :)

    The interesting part of the R&W polling was women only giving Labour an eight point lead but 20% were Don't Knows (compared to 11% of men).

    It's been documented Starmer has a "woman problem" but that's a big pool of potential voters (around 10% of the total) up for grabs. Presumably they are a big part of the Conservative DKs as well.

    As I recall in pretty much every poll over the years, the number of women saying Don't Know is twice that of men. Indecisive or open minded? Choose your preferred adjective, but it seems a perennial feature.
    Yes, I hadn't noticed. Omnisis has 26% DK among women - the VI is 32% Labour, 26% DK, 16% Conservative. 13% DK among men. The Omnisis split of the 2019 Conservative vote was 47% Tory, 21% DK and 14% Labour
    Women more likely to break to Labour too, in nearly every poll.

    Some DK may be reluctant Tories, but most seem genuinely undecided.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,293
    We need a new Scotland poll. I think how well Labour do north of the border may well be the difference between a hung parliament and a 20-30 seat majority.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839
    edited April 2023
    Eastwinger said:

    Still much water to flow under Westminster Bridge before this is done and dusted.
    Events dear boy events.

    Indeed, although IMHO the likelihood of an outright Labour victory has always been overstated.

    Opinion polls don't tell us much. The Government is a long way behind in them, but this is no surprise - it's incompetent, the economic situation isn't great, a lot of people are feeling poor and miserable, and we've been through a lot of shit during the Tories' thirteen years in power, most of which they're responsible for.

    It still doesn't mean that it's in the bag for Labour though, not by a long chalk. The Conservatives have a very large client vote and Labour are a deeply uninspiring opposition who are failing to offer much of an alternative beyond "we aren't Tories," which may well not be enough.

    Fundamentally, the next election is shaping up to be a contest between a couple of unexciting technocrats about which of them can manage decline more competently, within the tight constraints of the existing socio-economic settlement. Labour has the advantage of being not the incumbent bunch of screw-ups, the Tories have the advantage of being authentic Tories and not pretend ones wearing red rosettes. It all points towards the likelihood of a Hung Parliament.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,662
    On Topic

    Bit late to the NOM Party Mike
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,843
    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    Evening ll :)

    The interesting part of the R&W polling was women only giving Labour an eight point lead but 20% were Don't Knows (compared to 11% of men).

    It's been documented Starmer has a "woman problem" but that's a big pool of potential voters (around 10% of the total) up for grabs. Presumably they are a big part of the Conservative DKs as well.

    As I recall in pretty much every poll over the years, the number of women saying Don't Know is twice that of men. Indecisive or open minded? Choose your preferred adjective, but it seems a perennial feature.
    Yes, I hadn't noticed. Omnisis has 26% DK among women - the VI is 32% Labour, 26% DK, 16% Conservative. 13% DK among men. The Omnisis split of the 2019 Conservative vote was 47% Tory, 21% DK and 14% Labour
    Women more likely to break to Labour too, in nearly every poll.

    Some DK may be reluctant Tories, but most seem genuinely undecided.
    And in real general elections, some 25%-30% of voters don't vote.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    MikeSmithson said:

    geoffw said:

    Glad to see OGH back in the saddle

    We have illness in the family which is concerning
    Very sorry to hear that, Mike. Best wishes to you and hope things improve for your family soon.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,885
    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    Evening ll :)

    The interesting part of the R&W polling was women only giving Labour an eight point lead but 20% were Don't Knows (compared to 11% of men).

    It's been documented Starmer has a "woman problem" but that's a big pool of potential voters (around 10% of the total) up for grabs. Presumably they are a big part of the Conservative DKs as well.

    As I recall in pretty much every poll over the years, the number of women saying Don't Know is twice that of men. Indecisive or open minded? Choose your preferred adjective, but it seems a perennial feature.
    Yes, I hadn't noticed. Omnisis has 26% DK among women - the VI is 32% Labour, 26% DK, 16% Conservative. 13% DK among men. The Omnisis split of the 2019 Conservative vote was 47% Tory, 21% DK and 14% Labour
    Women more likely to break to Labour too, in nearly every poll.

    Some DK may be reluctant Tories, but most seem genuinely undecided.
    What we're saying is far from underestimating the Conservative position, the polls may be underestimating the Labour position IF women break disproportionately for the party.

    To be fair, lots of ifs, buts and maybes and a long way still to go.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,016
    Best wishes Mike.

    I have always shared your skepticism regarding the prospects of a Labour majority. But I hope that we are wrong.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,675
    stodge said:

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    Evening ll :)

    The interesting part of the R&W polling was women only giving Labour an eight point lead but 20% were Don't Knows (compared to 11% of men).

    It's been documented Starmer has a "woman problem" but that's a big pool of potential voters (around 10% of the total) up for grabs. Presumably they are a big part of the Conservative DKs as well.

    As I recall in pretty much every poll over the years, the number of women saying Don't Know is twice that of men. Indecisive or open minded? Choose your preferred adjective, but it seems a perennial feature.
    Yes, I hadn't noticed. Omnisis has 26% DK among women - the VI is 32% Labour, 26% DK, 16% Conservative. 13% DK among men. The Omnisis split of the 2019 Conservative vote was 47% Tory, 21% DK and 14% Labour
    Women more likely to break to Labour too, in nearly every poll.

    Some DK may be reluctant Tories, but most seem genuinely undecided.
    What we're saying is far from underestimating the Conservative position, the polls may be underestimating the Labour position IF women break disproportionately for the party.

    To be fair, lots of ifs, buts and maybes and a long way still to go.
    Quite possibly so, but it's all up in the air. I think it's the Tories with the woman problem.

    Starmer needs to up his game, and start to be a bit more positive. Nobody wants the same as the Tories, only with a pained expression.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,780
    Welcome to the weird and wonderful world of R&W sub-breaks.

    LDs up to 18% in London.

    Plaid Cymru on 0% in Scotland, as are the LDs.

    Labour only 11% ahead of the Conservatives in London. But 27% ahead in the West Midlands.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,084
    This is not the sound of a winning presidential candidate.
    Though you could argue that Trump displays much the same petulance, I don’t think mini me-ing Trump works for him.

    DeSantis openly speculating about what the state could build next to Walt Disney World:

    “Someone even said, maybe you need another state prison…”
    https://twitter.com/ScottGustin/status/1648013822492327937
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,559
    Tories 3/1 to win most seats with Betfair Exchange.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.167249009
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    Labour have gone down in my estimation since they started pandering to populism. I wonder if this is also a cause of these bad poll results?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664
    One for Leon:

    https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/apr/17/photographer-admits-prize-winning-image-was-ai-generated
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839
    darkage said:

    Labour have gone down in my estimation since they started pandering to populism. I wonder if this is also a cause of these bad poll results?

    That nice Rishi isn't a complete nutter and Labour are essentially offering more of the same delivered less incompetently. It's no more complex than that.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,586
    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    Evening ll :)

    The interesting part of the R&W polling was women only giving Labour an eight point lead but 20% were Don't Knows (compared to 11% of men).

    It's been documented Starmer has a "woman problem" but that's a big pool of potential voters (around 10% of the total) up for grabs. Presumably they are a big part of the Conservative DKs as well.

    As I recall in pretty much every poll over the years, the number of women saying Don't Know is twice that of men. Indecisive or open minded? Choose your preferred adjective, but it seems a perennial feature.
    I've noticed that too. In virtually every poll on any subject women are more prepared to say "Don't Know" than men. I think men in general feel it is weakness to say don't know whereas women don't.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,675
    Barnesian said:

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    Evening ll :)

    The interesting part of the R&W polling was women only giving Labour an eight point lead but 20% were Don't Knows (compared to 11% of men).

    It's been documented Starmer has a "woman problem" but that's a big pool of potential voters (around 10% of the total) up for grabs. Presumably they are a big part of the Conservative DKs as well.

    As I recall in pretty much every poll over the years, the number of women saying Don't Know is twice that of men. Indecisive or open minded? Choose your preferred adjective, but it seems a perennial feature.
    I've noticed that too. In virtually every poll on any subject women are more prepared to say "Don't Know" than men. I think men in general feel it is weakness to say don't know whereas women don't.
    Ultimately though, turnout is pretty equal between men and women, so these DK women are not WNV.

  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,016
    Barnesian said:

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    Evening ll :)

    The interesting part of the R&W polling was women only giving Labour an eight point lead but 20% were Don't Knows (compared to 11% of men).

    It's been documented Starmer has a "woman problem" but that's a big pool of potential voters (around 10% of the total) up for grabs. Presumably they are a big part of the Conservative DKs as well.

    As I recall in pretty much every poll over the years, the number of women saying Don't Know is twice that of men. Indecisive or open minded? Choose your preferred adjective, but it seems a perennial feature.
    I've noticed that too. In virtually every poll on any subject women are more prepared to say "Don't Know" than men. I think men in general feel it is weakness to say don't know whereas women don't.
    Women are also prepared to ask for directions and read instruction manuals.

    Crazy people!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    Nigelb said:

    This is not the sound of a winning presidential candidate.
    Though you could argue that Trump displays much the same petulance, I don’t think mini me-ing Trump works for him.

    DeSantis openly speculating about what the state could build next to Walt Disney World:

    “Someone even said, maybe you need another state prison…”
    https://twitter.com/ScottGustin/status/1648013822492327937

    He's clearly a popular governor given his recent win, but I have to wonder if even the base love this fight. Despite involving such a huge corporation it ultimately comes down being mad they said stuff he didn't like and then throwing hissy fits.

    I mean, I get taking on the woke traitors or whatever is popular with his ausience, and it is so pettily motivated it sure sounds like Trump, but it's just a bit pathetic.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    SandyRentool said:

    Barnesian said:

    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    Evening ll :)

    The interesting part of the R&W polling was women only giving Labour an eight point lead but 20% were Don't Knows (compared to 11% of men).

    It's been documented Starmer has a "woman problem" but that's a big pool of potential voters (around 10% of the total) up for grabs. Presumably they are a big part of the Conservative DKs as well.

    As I recall in pretty much every poll over the years, the number of women saying Don't Know is twice that of men. Indecisive or open minded? Choose your preferred adjective, but it seems a perennial feature.
    I've noticed that too. In virtually every poll on any subject women are more prepared to say "Don't Know" than men. I think men in general feel it is weakness to say don't know whereas women don't.
    Women are also prepared to ask for directions and read instruction manuals.

    Crazy people!
    Men do too......as a last resort!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,014
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    Welcome to the weird and wonderful world of R&W sub-breaks.

    LDs up to 18% in London.

    Plaid Cymru on 0% in Scotland, as are the LDs.

    Labour only 11% ahead of the Conservatives in London. But 27% ahead in the West Midlands.

    The Sunak effect?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    MightyAlex said:

    Demography is destiny. Every election from 2010 has fucked me and I don't see this changing for another 10-15 years.

    24-29 years under one party? Unpredented.

    Or are you of the view that even if the opposition wins what they have to promise to win will screw you?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,559
    edited April 2023
    What happened to the comment about the sub-samples in London and the West Midlands? I was about to say how those figures were proof of how sub-samples shouldn't be taken too seriously.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,055
    Nigelb said:

    This is not the sound of a winning presidential candidate.
    Though you could argue that Trump displays much the same petulance, I don’t think mini me-ing Trump works for him.

    DeSantis openly speculating about what the state could build next to Walt Disney World:

    “Someone even said, maybe you need another state prison…”
    https://twitter.com/ScottGustin/status/1648013822492327937

    Surely being seen to disrupt Disney is a vote loser in most places?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    CarlottaVance said:

    Does anyone remember the monstrous fuss about how the UK extended the gap between the first and second dose of covid vaccines from 3 weeks to 12 weeks?

    Turns out it may have saved 10,000 lives and 58,000 hospital admissions.

    https://twitter.com/natashaloder/status/1648012329077059584?s=20

    I honestly don't recall how big a fuss it caused. I do recall having some very brief concern, but it was one of those cases where the math was simple enough to grasp that it seemed to make perfect sense and things settled quickly - the benefits of getting more people with 1st dose coverage (which was still pretty good) done far outweighed maximising the number getting their second dose, with the chances a delay would not massively impact the efficacy of a second doses reasonable enough to chance.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,448
    kle4 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Does anyone remember the monstrous fuss about how the UK extended the gap between the first and second dose of covid vaccines from 3 weeks to 12 weeks?

    Turns out it may have saved 10,000 lives and 58,000 hospital admissions.

    https://twitter.com/natashaloder/status/1648012329077059584?s=20

    I honestly don't recall how big a fuss it caused. I do recall having some very brief concern, but it was one of those cases where the math was simple enough to grasp that it seemed to make perfect sense and things settled quickly - the benefits of getting more people with 1st dose coverage (which was still pretty good) done far outweighed maximising the number getting their second dose, with the chances a delay would not massively impact the efficacy of a second doses reasonable enough to chance.
    Maths, and there was a big fuss, not least on PB.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,660
    kle4 said:

    MightyAlex said:

    Demography is destiny. Every election from 2010 has fucked me and I don't see this changing for another 10-15 years.

    24-29 years under one party? Unpredented.

    Or are you of the view that even if the opposition wins what they have to promise to win will screw you?
    The latter although I can see the Conservatives scraping through the next election. The efficient distribution of ageing voters means pandering to the retired/soon to retire is IMO optimal.

    I also worry about boundary setting and voter disenfranchisement further biasing towards the Conservatives.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    kle4 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Does anyone remember the monstrous fuss about how the UK extended the gap between the first and second dose of covid vaccines from 3 weeks to 12 weeks?

    Turns out it may have saved 10,000 lives and 58,000 hospital admissions.

    https://twitter.com/natashaloder/status/1648012329077059584?s=20

    I honestly don't recall how big a fuss it caused. I do recall having some very brief concern, but it was one of those cases where the math was simple enough to grasp that it seemed to make perfect sense and things settled quickly - the benefits of getting more people with 1st dose coverage (which was still pretty good) done far outweighed maximising the number getting their second dose, with the chances a delay would not massively impact the efficacy of a second doses reasonable enough to chance.
    Yes, I’d forgotten all about that. Remember it now, was a smart move. Interesting data from @CarlottaVance above.

    Meanwhile, I was surprised to get a round robin from a friend the other day showing a positive covid test and various vexed emojis. He wasn’t hugely ill (inference was a cold-like bout) but I didn’t realise people even did tests anymore (don’t you have to pay for them?) … and thought you just were supposed to go to bed if you feel unwell?
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,999
    edited April 2023
    FPT: A few decades ago, there was a mildly popular slogan in the US: "Real men don't eat quiche."

    And it was sometimes accompanied by another: "Real women don't pump gas."

    I always assumed that most of those who displayed either one were at least half joking.

    (Were I to propose a modern version it might be: "Real men don't wear high heels." (Unlike Trump.))
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Andy_JS said:

    What happened to the comment about the sub-samples in London and the West Midlands? I was about to say how those figures were proof of how sub-samples shouldn't be taken too seriously.

    Yep, you get all sorts of wild results looking at them. Stodge seems to base entire essays on them despite their being statistically meaningless.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,286
    MikeSmithson said:

    geoffw said:

    Glad to see OGH back in the saddle

    We have illness in the family which is concerning
    Sorry to hear that Mike. Hope everyone is better soon.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,407
    Andy_JS said:

    Tories 3/1 to win most seats with Betfair Exchange.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.167249009

    Not the worst bet.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited April 2023
    kle4 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Does anyone remember the monstrous fuss about how the UK extended the gap between the first and second dose of covid vaccines from 3 weeks to 12 weeks?

    Turns out it may have saved 10,000 lives and 58,000 hospital admissions.

    https://twitter.com/natashaloder/status/1648012329077059584?s=20

    I honestly don't recall how big a fuss it caused. I do recall having some very brief concern, but it was one of those cases where the math was simple enough to grasp that it seemed to make perfect sense and things settled quickly - the benefits of getting more people with 1st dose coverage (which was still pretty good) done far outweighed maximising the number getting their second dose, with the chances a delay would not massively impact the efficacy of a second doses reasonable enough to chance.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/05/no-data-to-support-uk-delay-of-vaccines-second-dose-says-who

    The British Medical Association described the move as “grossly unfair” to thousands of at-risk patients in England....

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/the-uk-is-delaying-second-pfizer/biontech-shot-heres-what-we-know.html
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    CarlottaVance said:

    kle4 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Does anyone remember the monstrous fuss about how the UK extended the gap between the first and second dose of covid vaccines from 3 weeks to 12 weeks?

    Turns out it may have saved 10,000 lives and 58,000 hospital admissions.

    https://twitter.com/natashaloder/status/1648012329077059584?s=20

    I honestly don't recall how big a fuss it caused. I do recall having some very brief concern, but it was one of those cases where the math was simple enough to grasp that it seemed to make perfect sense and things settled quickly - the benefits of getting more people with 1st dose coverage (which was still pretty good) done far outweighed maximising the number getting their second dose, with the chances a delay would not massively impact the efficacy of a second doses reasonable enough to chance.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/05/no-data-to-support-uk-delay-of-vaccines-second-dose-says-who

    The British Medical Association described the move as “grossly unfair” to thousands of at-risk patients in England....

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/the-uk-is-delaying-second-pfizer/biontech-shot-heres-what-we-know.html
    Ah yes, the WHO were in there too. I wonder if some other places didn't so something similar because of that sort of talk, when to my mind it didn't really look like something you needed to be a medical expert about. I know that's a dangerous attitude to have sometimes, but the government messaging on the reasoning was solid.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,300
    Michael Glackin in The Times - Someone tell Yousaf that the economy’s in trouble
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/someone-tell-yousaf-that-the-economys-in-trouble-bqxw3mjj0

    "Incoming prime ministers are briefed about the nation’s nuclear codes. In Scotland, leaders are informed they are the proud owners of a luxury £100,000 RV motor home."
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,421
    kle4 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    kle4 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Does anyone remember the monstrous fuss about how the UK extended the gap between the first and second dose of covid vaccines from 3 weeks to 12 weeks?

    Turns out it may have saved 10,000 lives and 58,000 hospital admissions.

    https://twitter.com/natashaloder/status/1648012329077059584?s=20

    I honestly don't recall how big a fuss it caused. I do recall having some very brief concern, but it was one of those cases where the math was simple enough to grasp that it seemed to make perfect sense and things settled quickly - the benefits of getting more people with 1st dose coverage (which was still pretty good) done far outweighed maximising the number getting their second dose, with the chances a delay would not massively impact the efficacy of a second doses reasonable enough to chance.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/05/no-data-to-support-uk-delay-of-vaccines-second-dose-says-who

    The British Medical Association described the move as “grossly unfair” to thousands of at-risk patients in England....

    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/the-uk-is-delaying-second-pfizer/biontech-shot-heres-what-we-know.html
    Ah yes, the WHO were in there too. I wonder if some other places didn't so something similar because of that sort of talk, when to my mind it didn't really look like something you needed to be a medical expert about. I know that's a dangerous attitude to have sometimes, but the government messaging on the reasoning was solid.
    The overall performance of the UK in terms of covid deaths was mediocre - better than the US and some Eastern European countries; worse than most Western European countries - but it was surely the right decision to give more single doses when vaccine supplies were limited.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Foxy said:

    stodge said:

    Evening ll :)

    The interesting part of the R&W polling was women only giving Labour an eight point lead but 20% were Don't Knows (compared to 11% of men).

    It's been documented Starmer has a "woman problem" but that's a big pool of potential voters (around 10% of the total) up for grabs. Presumably they are a big part of the Conservative DKs as well.

    As I recall in pretty much every poll over the years, the number of women saying Don't Know is twice that of men. Indecisive or open minded? Choose your preferred adjective, but it seems a perennial feature.
    More DKs among women than men, has been a thing ever since I've been looking at polls semi-seriously, over three decades ago.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,559
    edited April 2023
    O/T

    I've just been watching the BBC idents that were used between 2002 and 2006, and the interesting thing about them is that they celebrate just about everything except anything that might be described as "provincial/rural England".

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ydqN-yo_2B4
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,706
    R&W lead tonight is 12%, not 13% as per post header.

    Lab 44
    Con 32
    LD 10
    Reform 4
    Green 4
    SNP 4

    https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-16-april-2023/
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,706
    Wiki graph updated - latest average line is now:

    Lab 44
    Con 29.5

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#/media/File:Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election_after_2019_(LOESS).svg
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,827
    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    I've just been watching the BBC idents that were used between 2002 and 2006, and the interesting thing about them is that they celebrate just about everything except anything that might be described as "provincial/rural England".

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ydqN-yo_2B4

    Seems like trying very hard to be offended by the bbc there - plenty of provincial and rural dancers around in England.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,657
    darkage said:

    Labour have gone down in my estimation since they started pandering to populism. I wonder if this is also a cause of these bad poll results?

    Since they started pandering to populism? I don’t think the events of the 1920s have much bearing on the polls.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,587
    Times:

    "Dominic Raab is set to learn his fate within days as ministers expect to receive a report into alleged bullying this week."
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    carnforth said:

    Times:

    "Dominic Raab is set to learn his fate within days as ministers expect to receive a report into alleged bullying this week."

    Should be interesting - the snippets leaked about incidents to date look pretty survivable for him, and whilst anything less than his resigning would be called excusing poor behaviour, if he doesn't look worse than just a bit of a dick tht attack will be harder to make stick.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,464
    Labour's possible rise in Scotland could actually help produce a majority even though the polls tighten, I am finding it hard to read the fall out from the SNP's woes. On the subject of female voters, IIRC they were also undecided on the BREXIT vote until the last moment (I thought they would swing it to REMAIN...how wrong I was on that).. is there a small chance of a better than expected May Locals leading to a sudden snap election?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,559
    edited April 2023
    O/T

    Maybe I'm a snowflake but there are a lot of videos on YouTube with titles like "The tragic story of..." or "The life and sad ending of ..." when the person concerned is still alive. Examples are Cat Stevens and Shirley Bassey. Obviously they do it in order to get more clicks from fans who are concerned the person may have died without them realising it, but I don't think YouTube should allow it because it's genuinely offensive.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    kle4 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Does anyone remember the monstrous fuss about how the UK extended the gap between the first and second dose of covid vaccines from 3 weeks to 12 weeks?

    Turns out it may have saved 10,000 lives and 58,000 hospital admissions.

    https://twitter.com/natashaloder/status/1648012329077059584?s=20

    I honestly don't recall how big a fuss it caused. I do recall having some very brief concern, but it was one of those cases where the math was simple enough to grasp that it seemed to make perfect sense and things settled quickly - the benefits of getting more people with 1st dose coverage (which was still pretty good) done far outweighed maximising the number getting their second dose, with the chances a delay would not massively impact the efficacy of a second doses reasonable enough to chance.
    Maths, and there was a big fuss, not least on PB.
    Do you shorten economics to econs?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,195
    Anabobazina said:

    kle4 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Does anyone remember the monstrous fuss about how the UK extended the gap between the first and second dose of covid vaccines from 3 weeks to 12 weeks?

    Turns out it may have saved 10,000 lives and 58,000 hospital admissions.

    https://twitter.com/natashaloder/status/1648012329077059584?s=20

    I honestly don't recall how big a fuss it caused. I do recall having some very brief concern, but it was one of those cases where the math was simple enough to grasp that it seemed to make perfect sense and things settled quickly - the benefits of getting more people with 1st dose coverage (which was still pretty good) done far outweighed maximising the number getting their second dose, with the chances a delay would not massively impact the efficacy of a second doses reasonable enough to chance.
    Yes, I’d forgotten all about that. Remember it now, was a smart move. Interesting data from @CarlottaVance above.

    Meanwhile, I was surprised to get a round robin from a friend the other day showing a positive covid test and various vexed emojis. He wasn’t hugely ill (inference was a cold-like bout) but I didn’t realise people even did tests anymore (don’t you have to pay for them?) … and thought you just were supposed to go to bed if you feel unwell?
    I did one after being alerted our auditors (I'm an in house accountant) informed us they had COVID a few months back then subsequent tests till I was negative after feeling better in order to not spread it in to the office (WFH for days 7 to 10) for me. I expensed the additional pack I purchased as it was entirely for our office's sake that I did the tests.
    More recently I did a test as I felt a bit ropey after Easter and I have a busy schedule seeing family (Daughter's first coming up). Fortunately it was negative.
    I'm not reporting any results positive or negative to the government now.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,195
    MikeSmithson said:

    geoffw said:

    Glad to see OGH back in the saddle

    We have illness in the family which is concerning
    Best wishes for your family Mike.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,904
    US changes rules on tax credits for electric cars to cover American-made only
    https://www.theregister.com/2023/04/17/us_ev_tax_credit/

    More American protectionism from the home of capitalist free enterprise.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930
    WillG said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    kle4 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Does anyone remember the monstrous fuss about how the UK extended the gap between the first and second dose of covid vaccines from 3 weeks to 12 weeks?

    Turns out it may have saved 10,000 lives and 58,000 hospital admissions.

    https://twitter.com/natashaloder/status/1648012329077059584?s=20

    I honestly don't recall how big a fuss it caused. I do recall having some very brief concern, but it was one of those cases where the math was simple enough to grasp that it seemed to make perfect sense and things settled quickly - the benefits of getting more people with 1st dose coverage (which was still pretty good) done far outweighed maximising the number getting their second dose, with the chances a delay would not massively impact the efficacy of a second doses reasonable enough to chance.
    Maths, and there was a big fuss, not least on PB.
    Do you shorten economics to econs?
    We all know English has no rules like that.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,559
    edited April 2023
    Is ChatGPT always supposed to give factually correct information? I just asked it about some constituency results at the 1992 general election and the information it gave was totally wrong. For example, it says the Labour majority in Walthamstow was 9,316 votes when in fact it was 3,022 votes. Maybe this type of information isn't its strong point, and Wikipedia can provide it. But still.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    Russian is a criminal culture:

    https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/12pgxq8/she_is_screaming_shes_a_little_kid_you_know_5/
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Andy_JS said:

    Is ChatGPT always supposed to give factually correct information? I just asked it about some constituency results at the 1992 general election and the information it gave was totally wrong. For example, it says the Labour majority in Walthamstow was 9,316 votes when in fact it was 3,022 votes. Maybe this type of information isn't its strong point, and Wikipedia can provide it. But still.

    No. It has no notion of what factually correct information is. It's just grabbing a load of text from all over the place and splurging it together based on what has tended to be connected with what. It does pretty well all things considered though; It'll often come up with something that's like 90% correct and only 10% completely made up.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930
    Andy_JS said:

    Is ChatGPT always supposed to give factually correct information? I just asked it about some constituency results at the 1992 general election and the information it gave was totally wrong. For example, it says the Labour majority in Walthamstow was 9,316 votes when in fact it was 3,022 votes. Maybe this type of information isn't its strong point, and Wikipedia can provide it. But still.

    I think it has been pointed out a few times that it often gives nonsense results. What was your query?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,559
    edited April 2023
    Another example:

    Q: "How many votes did the Liberal Democrat candidate receive in the North Bedfordshire constituency at the 1992 UK general election?"

    A: "The North Bedfordshire constituency was contested by several candidates in the 1992 UK general election, including a candidate from the Liberal Democrats. The vote total for the Liberal Democrat candidate in the constituency was 6,194, which represented 15.3% of the total votes cast. The Conservative Party candidate won the seat, receiving 31,858 votes (78.7% of the total votes cast), while the Labour Party candidate received 2,166 votes (5.3% of the total votes cast)."

    Actually the result was as follows:

    Con 29,970
    Lab 18,302
    LD 10,014

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Bedfordshire_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Election_in_the_1990s

    That isn't a trivial error as far as the Labour candidate is concerned.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,559
    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Is ChatGPT always supposed to give factually correct information? I just asked it about some constituency results at the 1992 general election and the information it gave was totally wrong. For example, it says the Labour majority in Walthamstow was 9,316 votes when in fact it was 3,022 votes. Maybe this type of information isn't its strong point, and Wikipedia can provide it. But still.

    I think it has been pointed out a few times that it often gives nonsense results. What was your query?
    Q: "What was the Labour majority in the constituency of Walthamstow at the 1992 general election in the UK?"

    A: "At the 1992 UK general election, the constituency of Walthamstow was won by the Labour Party candidate, Neil Gerrard, with a majority of 9,316 votes. He received 25,603 votes, while the Conservative candidate received 16,287 votes, the Liberal Democrat candidate received 5,780 votes, and other candidates received a total of 1,743 votes."

    Actual result:

    Lab 16,251
    Con 13,229
    LD 5,142

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walthamstow_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_1990s
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930
    Andy_JS said:

    Another example:

    Q: "How many votes did the Liberal Democrat candidate receive in the North Bedfordshire constituency at the 1992 UK general election?"

    A: "The North Bedfordshire constituency was contested by several candidates in the 1992 UK general election, including a candidate from the Liberal Democrats. The vote total for the Liberal Democrat candidate in the constituency was 6,194, which represented 15.3% of the total votes cast. The Conservative Party candidate won the seat, receiving 31,858 votes (78.7% of the total votes cast), while the Labour Party candidate received 2,166 votes (5.3% of the total votes cast)."

    Actually the result was as follows:

    Con 29,970
    Lab 18,302
    LD 10,014

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Bedfordshire_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Election_in_the_1990s

    That isn't a trivial error as far as the Labour candidate is concerned.

    Can you work out which constituency it was thinking about? The number and percentage should be unique to a single seat.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,559
    edited April 2023
    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Another example:

    Q: "How many votes did the Liberal Democrat candidate receive in the North Bedfordshire constituency at the 1992 UK general election?"

    A: "The North Bedfordshire constituency was contested by several candidates in the 1992 UK general election, including a candidate from the Liberal Democrats. The vote total for the Liberal Democrat candidate in the constituency was 6,194, which represented 15.3% of the total votes cast. The Conservative Party candidate won the seat, receiving 31,858 votes (78.7% of the total votes cast), while the Labour Party candidate received 2,166 votes (5.3% of the total votes cast)."

    Actually the result was as follows:

    Con 29,970
    Lab 18,302
    LD 10,014

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Bedfordshire_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Election_in_the_1990s

    That isn't a trivial error as far as the Labour candidate is concerned.

    Can you work out which constituency it was thinking about? The number and percentage should be unique to a single seat.
    I'm pretty sure those figures are totally imaginary. 99.99% sure. They've been produced by some sort of weird AI process. I don't think it's a question of printing out the wrong result from another constituency.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,559
    Gardenwalker said:

    ChatGPT is basically crap at facts. It’s a total fabulist. It haven’t figured out why, but it lies without hesitation.

    I say this as a someone who’s super excited generally about the opportunities presented by generative AI.

    On the face of it, it doesn't inspire confidence in its other abilities, but maybe the fact that it's bad at factual information is one of the reasons it's so good at other types of "intelligence", if you see what I mean.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,559
    edited April 2023
    edmundintokyo said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Is ChatGPT always supposed to give factually correct information? I just asked it about some constituency results at the 1992 general election and the information it gave was totally wrong. For example, it says the Labour majority in Walthamstow was 9,316 votes when in fact it was 3,022 votes. Maybe this type of information isn't its strong point, and Wikipedia can provide it. But still.

    No. It has no notion of what factually correct information is. It's just grabbing a load of text from all over the place and splurging it together based on what has tended to be connected with what. It does pretty well all things considered though; It'll often come up with something that's like 90% correct and only 10% completely made up.
    As below, it managed to reduce the number of Labour votes in North Beds at the 1992 election from 18,302 to 2,166. I'd love to know the process it went through to get that outcome.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930
    Andy_JS said:

    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Another example:

    Q: "How many votes did the Liberal Democrat candidate receive in the North Bedfordshire constituency at the 1992 UK general election?"

    A: "The North Bedfordshire constituency was contested by several candidates in the 1992 UK general election, including a candidate from the Liberal Democrats. The vote total for the Liberal Democrat candidate in the constituency was 6,194, which represented 15.3% of the total votes cast. The Conservative Party candidate won the seat, receiving 31,858 votes (78.7% of the total votes cast), while the Labour Party candidate received 2,166 votes (5.3% of the total votes cast)."

    Actually the result was as follows:

    Con 29,970
    Lab 18,302
    LD 10,014

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Bedfordshire_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Election_in_the_1990s

    That isn't a trivial error as far as the Labour candidate is concerned.

    Can you work out which constituency it was thinking about? The number and percentage should be unique to a single seat.
    I'm pretty sure those figures are totally imaginary. 99.99% sure. They've been produced by some sort of weird AI process. I don't think it's a question of printing out the wrong result from another constituency.
    Have you asked it if it’s sure it is right? :D
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,559
    I asked ChatGPT how many votes the Free Democrats received at the 1983 German general election.

    It said 5,647,000 votes. They actually got 2,706,942 party list votes, and 1,087,918 constituency votes. (Combined total = 3,794,860).

    Obviously vote totals aren't a strong point for ChatGPT.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,559
    Question to ChatGPT:

    "How many votes did William Hague receive in the final round of the 1997 Conservative Party leadership election?"

    Answer: "In the final round of the 1997 Conservative Party leadership election, William Hague received 92 votes from Conservative Members of Parliament, defeating Kenneth Clarke, who received 89 votes. This made Hague the youngest leader of the Conservative Party in over 200 years."

    The result was actually Hague 92 votes, Clarke 70 votes. A 22 vote margin, not a 3 vote margin.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Conservative_Party_leadership_election
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,559
    edited April 2023
    ChatGPT:

    Q: "How many votes did Marine Le Pen receive in the final round of the 2022 French presidential election?"

    A: "Marine Le Pen received 10,643,467 votes in the final round of the 2022 French presidential election, which was held on May 8, 2022. This was 48.57% of the total votes cast in the second round. Her opponent, the incumbent president Emmanuel Macron, won the election with 12,216,933 votes, which was 51.43% of the total votes cast."

    The result was actually Macron 58.55%, Le Pen 41.45%.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    When Big Brother says, Black is White, or White is Black, then that MUST be the Correct Answer.

    Capice?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,559
    edited April 2023
    ChatGPT believes that the song Wuthering Heights by Kate Bush features prominent use of the Fairlight CMI synthesizer.

    The song was recorded in 1977, and the Farilight CMI first became available in 1979. Kate Bush did use the Fairlight CMI synthesizer on many of her other projects from 1979 onwards. So ChatGPT made an educated guess about her using it on Wuthering Heights, a guess that, unfortunately, was impossible.


    Q: "What inspired Kate Bush to write the song Wuthering Heights?"

    A: "Kate Bush was inspired to write the song "Wuthering Heights" after seeing a television adaptation of Emily Bronte's novel of the same name. The novel's story of forbidden love and the haunting atmosphere of the moors captured Bush's imagination and inspired her to write a song from the perspective of the novel's protagonist, Catherine Earnshaw.

    Bush wrote the song when she was just 18 years old, and it quickly became a sensation after its release in 1978. The song's distinctive vocal melody and unique instrumentation, including a prominent use of the Fairlight CMI synthesizer, helped to establish Bush as a unique and innovative artist and set her apart from her contemporaries.

    "Wuthering Heights" remains one of Bush's most iconic and beloved songs, and its enduring popularity has cemented her status as one of the most influential and groundbreaking artists of her generation."
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Andy, clearly you are NOT getting with the Program.

    Big Brother is now factoring this into your algorithm . . .
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,586
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    US changes rules on tax credits for electric cars to cover American-made only
    https://www.theregister.com/2023/04/17/us_ev_tax_credit/

    More American protectionism from the home of capitalist free enterprise.

    Because:

    1. Why would you subsidise imports when you have a domestic industry?

    2. Biden is just as Sinophobic as Trump, but he couches it in slightly different language.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,586
    Gardenwalker said:

    ChatGPT is basically crap at facts. It’s a total fabulist. It haven’t figured out why, but it lies without hesitation.

    I say this as a someone who’s super excited generally about the opportunities presented by generative AI.

    A system that, when asked for factual historical information, spits out random nonesense with an air of authority, is worse than not answering. It’s bloody dangerous to rely on it.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Sandpit said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    US changes rules on tax credits for electric cars to cover American-made only
    https://www.theregister.com/2023/04/17/us_ev_tax_credit/

    More American protectionism from the home of capitalist free enterprise.

    Because:

    1. Why would you subsidise imports when you have a domestic industry?

    2. Biden is just as Sinophobic as Trump, but he couches it in slightly different language.
    More to the point, he's pandering to the same voters that Trump was.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,586
    Andy_JS said:

    Tories 3/1 to win most seats with Betfair Exchange.

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.167249009

    That’s not bad odds, but a Labour recovery in Scotland might see them over the line, as might a Lib Dem recovery in the South of England. Probably a good trading bet for now, if the polls continue to close over the next few months.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,657
    Andy_JS said:

    ChatGPT believes that the song Wuthering Heights by Kate Bush features prominent use of the Fairlight CMI synthesizer.

    The song was recorded in 1977, and the Farilight CMI first became available in 1979. Kate Bush did use the Fairlight CMI synthesizer on many of her other projects from 1979 onwards. So ChatGPT made an educated guess about her using it on Wuthering Heights, a guess that, unfortunately, was impossible.


    Q: "What inspired Kate Bush to write the song Wuthering Heights?"

    A: "Kate Bush was inspired to write the song "Wuthering Heights" after seeing a television adaptation of Emily Bronte's novel of the same name. The novel's story of forbidden love and the haunting atmosphere of the moors captured Bush's imagination and inspired her to write a song from the perspective of the novel's protagonist, Catherine Earnshaw.

    Bush wrote the song when she was just 18 years old, and it quickly became a sensation after its release in 1978. The song's distinctive vocal melody and unique instrumentation, including a prominent use of the Fairlight CMI synthesizer, helped to establish Bush as a unique and innovative artist and set her apart from her contemporaries.

    "Wuthering Heights" remains one of Bush's most iconic and beloved songs, and its enduring popularity has cemented her status as one of the most influential and groundbreaking artists of her generation."

    At least it didn't say that Bush's song inspired Emily Bronte to write the book.
This discussion has been closed.