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Why I am now betting on LAB not getting a majority – politicalbetting.com
Why I am now betting on LAB not getting a majority – politicalbetting.com
Tonight’s R&W poll has the LAB lead down to just 13% which is the lowest it has been since Sunak became PM. This is in line with the trend from other pollsters where all but two have the margin in the teens – not the 20s. The two exceptions have never been tested in a real election,
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Relegation beckons ?
Events dear boy events.
Thailand's the place, mate
0% tax. Literally, 0%. They don't care what you earn abroad. Just have private health insurance (which you would have anyway). You can rent a glam apartment in lower Sukhumvit for $1500 a month, and it will have gym and pool and be uber luxe
Come and go as you please, in essence - because they want the money you spend and the business you might generate
Countries are REALLY competing for the nomads. This is going to be a massive thing in years to come
The interesting part of the R&W polling was women only giving Labour an eight point lead but 20% were Don't Knows (compared to 11% of men).
It's been documented Starmer has a "woman problem" but that's a big pool of potential voters (around 10% of the total) up for grabs. Presumably they are a big part of the Conservative DKs as well.
I can't see the current bottom three (Southampton, Leicester, Forest) escaping tbh.
It's a brave person says Everton and Leeds both avoid the drop.
Did BBC Seven Days yesterday and @jessicainsall - accountant and former auditor - gave a really interesting perspective on why the SNP has been struggling to find a replacement auditor. Have a listen 👇🏼 A perspective I hadn’t picked up before. @BBCScotNine[VIDEO]
https://twitter.com/Cat_Headley/status/1648041066417778703?s=20
1) Auditors are businesses and have to run at a profit - if you're doing an Audit and not making a profit why are you doing the audit? Raises question mark over your impartiality.
2) The SNP's accounts may be in a bit of a mess - so an audit is going to be expensive.
3) Does the SNP have the cash to pay for the audit?
I have gone all green on Leicesters relegation.
Some DK may be reluctant Tories, but most seem genuinely undecided.
Opinion polls don't tell us much. The Government is a long way behind in them, but this is no surprise - it's incompetent, the economic situation isn't great, a lot of people are feeling poor and miserable, and we've been through a lot of shit during the Tories' thirteen years in power, most of which they're responsible for.
It still doesn't mean that it's in the bag for Labour though, not by a long chalk. The Conservatives have a very large client vote and Labour are a deeply uninspiring opposition who are failing to offer much of an alternative beyond "we aren't Tories," which may well not be enough.
Fundamentally, the next election is shaping up to be a contest between a couple of unexciting technocrats about which of them can manage decline more competently, within the tight constraints of the existing socio-economic settlement. Labour has the advantage of being not the incumbent bunch of screw-ups, the Tories have the advantage of being authentic Tories and not pretend ones wearing red rosettes. It all points towards the likelihood of a Hung Parliament.
Bit late to the NOM Party Mike
To be fair, lots of ifs, buts and maybes and a long way still to go.
I have always shared your skepticism regarding the prospects of a Labour majority. But I hope that we are wrong.
Starmer needs to up his game, and start to be a bit more positive. Nobody wants the same as the Tories, only with a pained expression.
LDs up to 18% in London.
Plaid Cymru on 0% in Scotland, as are the LDs.
Labour only 11% ahead of the Conservatives in London. But 27% ahead in the West Midlands.
Though you could argue that Trump displays much the same petulance, I don’t think mini me-ing Trump works for him.
DeSantis openly speculating about what the state could build next to Walt Disney World:
“Someone even said, maybe you need another state prison…”
https://twitter.com/ScottGustin/status/1648013822492327937
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.167249009
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/apr/17/photographer-admits-prize-winning-image-was-ai-generated
Crazy people!
I mean, I get taking on the woke traitors or whatever is popular with his ausience, and it is so pettily motivated it sure sounds like Trump, but it's just a bit pathetic.
Turns out it may have saved 10,000 lives and 58,000 hospital admissions.
https://twitter.com/natashaloder/status/1648012329077059584?s=20
Or are you of the view that even if the opposition wins what they have to promise to win will screw you?
###Puts on reading glasses###
Oh, quiche. Never mind.
I also worry about boundary setting and voter disenfranchisement further biasing towards the Conservatives.
Meanwhile, I was surprised to get a round robin from a friend the other day showing a positive covid test and various vexed emojis. He wasn’t hugely ill (inference was a cold-like bout) but I didn’t realise people even did tests anymore (don’t you have to pay for them?) … and thought you just were supposed to go to bed if you feel unwell?
And it was sometimes accompanied by another: "Real women don't pump gas."
I always assumed that most of those who displayed either one were at least half joking.
(Were I to propose a modern version it might be: "Real men don't wear high heels." (Unlike Trump.))
The British Medical Association described the move as “grossly unfair” to thousands of at-risk patients in England....
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/05/the-uk-is-delaying-second-pfizer/biontech-shot-heres-what-we-know.html
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/someone-tell-yousaf-that-the-economys-in-trouble-bqxw3mjj0
"Incoming prime ministers are briefed about the nation’s nuclear codes. In Scotland, leaders are informed they are the proud owners of a luxury £100,000 RV motor home."
I've just been watching the BBC idents that were used between 2002 and 2006, and the interesting thing about them is that they celebrate just about everything except anything that might be described as "provincial/rural England".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ydqN-yo_2B4
Lab 44
Con 32
LD 10
Reform 4
Green 4
SNP 4
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/latest-gb-voting-intention-16-april-2023/
Lab 44
Con 29.5
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#/media/File:Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election_after_2019_(LOESS).svg
"Dominic Raab is set to learn his fate within days as ministers expect to receive a report into alleged bullying this week."
Maybe I'm a snowflake but there are a lot of videos on YouTube with titles like "The tragic story of..." or "The life and sad ending of ..." when the person concerned is still alive. Examples are Cat Stevens and Shirley Bassey. Obviously they do it in order to get more clicks from fans who are concerned the person may have died without them realising it, but I don't think YouTube should allow it because it's genuinely offensive.
More recently I did a test as I felt a bit ropey after Easter and I have a busy schedule seeing family (Daughter's first coming up). Fortunately it was negative.
I'm not reporting any results positive or negative to the government now.
https://www.theregister.com/2023/04/17/us_ev_tax_credit/
More American protectionism from the home of capitalist free enterprise.
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/12pgxq8/she_is_screaming_shes_a_little_kid_you_know_5/
Q: "How many votes did the Liberal Democrat candidate receive in the North Bedfordshire constituency at the 1992 UK general election?"
A: "The North Bedfordshire constituency was contested by several candidates in the 1992 UK general election, including a candidate from the Liberal Democrats. The vote total for the Liberal Democrat candidate in the constituency was 6,194, which represented 15.3% of the total votes cast. The Conservative Party candidate won the seat, receiving 31,858 votes (78.7% of the total votes cast), while the Labour Party candidate received 2,166 votes (5.3% of the total votes cast)."
Actually the result was as follows:
Con 29,970
Lab 18,302
LD 10,014
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Bedfordshire_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Election_in_the_1990s
That isn't a trivial error as far as the Labour candidate is concerned.
I say this as a someone who’s super excited generally about the opportunities presented by generative AI.
A: "At the 1992 UK general election, the constituency of Walthamstow was won by the Labour Party candidate, Neil Gerrard, with a majority of 9,316 votes. He received 25,603 votes, while the Conservative candidate received 16,287 votes, the Liberal Democrat candidate received 5,780 votes, and other candidates received a total of 1,743 votes."
Actual result:
Lab 16,251
Con 13,229
LD 5,142
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walthamstow_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_1990s
It said 5,647,000 votes. They actually got 2,706,942 party list votes, and 1,087,918 constituency votes. (Combined total = 3,794,860).
Obviously vote totals aren't a strong point for ChatGPT.
"How many votes did William Hague receive in the final round of the 1997 Conservative Party leadership election?"
Answer: "In the final round of the 1997 Conservative Party leadership election, William Hague received 92 votes from Conservative Members of Parliament, defeating Kenneth Clarke, who received 89 votes. This made Hague the youngest leader of the Conservative Party in over 200 years."
The result was actually Hague 92 votes, Clarke 70 votes. A 22 vote margin, not a 3 vote margin.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Conservative_Party_leadership_election
Q: "How many votes did Marine Le Pen receive in the final round of the 2022 French presidential election?"
A: "Marine Le Pen received 10,643,467 votes in the final round of the 2022 French presidential election, which was held on May 8, 2022. This was 48.57% of the total votes cast in the second round. Her opponent, the incumbent president Emmanuel Macron, won the election with 12,216,933 votes, which was 51.43% of the total votes cast."
The result was actually Macron 58.55%, Le Pen 41.45%.
Capice?
The song was recorded in 1977, and the Farilight CMI first became available in 1979. Kate Bush did use the Fairlight CMI synthesizer on many of her other projects from 1979 onwards. So ChatGPT made an educated guess about her using it on Wuthering Heights, a guess that, unfortunately, was impossible.
Q: "What inspired Kate Bush to write the song Wuthering Heights?"
A: "Kate Bush was inspired to write the song "Wuthering Heights" after seeing a television adaptation of Emily Bronte's novel of the same name. The novel's story of forbidden love and the haunting atmosphere of the moors captured Bush's imagination and inspired her to write a song from the perspective of the novel's protagonist, Catherine Earnshaw.
Bush wrote the song when she was just 18 years old, and it quickly became a sensation after its release in 1978. The song's distinctive vocal melody and unique instrumentation, including a prominent use of the Fairlight CMI synthesizer, helped to establish Bush as a unique and innovative artist and set her apart from her contemporaries.
"Wuthering Heights" remains one of Bush's most iconic and beloved songs, and its enduring popularity has cemented her status as one of the most influential and groundbreaking artists of her generation."
Big Brother is now factoring this into your algorithm . . .
1. Why would you subsidise imports when you have a domestic industry?
2. Biden is just as Sinophobic as Trump, but he couches it in slightly different language.