From a 70% chance to a 7% one – betting on BoJo as GE CON leader – politicalbetting.com

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  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Final round

    Forbes 23890
    Yousaf 26032

    So hapless Yousaf wins 53% to 47% and the Sturgeon SNP establishment ensures victory for their candidate

    Thought the SNP had more members.
    They do!

    Turnout was only 70%.
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    Very, very close. If members had been able to change their votes after the further resignations might well have gone the other way.

    But Useless it is.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    This is wonderful news for Scottish Labour, Yousaf has a -20% rating with Scots compared to -4% for Sarwar and -9% for Starmer.

    Forbes was on -8%
    https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/tight-race-between-yousaf-and-forbes-among-snp-voters-while-sturgeons-ratings-are-up

  • Mexicanpete
    Mexicanpete Posts: 33,115
    MarqueeMark said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Yousaf wins by 52.1 to 47.9%.

    Close enough for plenty of whining about a fix.

    Probably with good cause.
    That is a cast iron, copper bottomed, suck it up losers sort of a victory number.
  • Chris
    Chris Posts: 12,059
    Driver said:

    Chris said:

    viewcode said:

    I didn't do a backstage analysis of the SNP leadership election because there wasn't enough info and I couldn't think of an informed pro-Hamza debater on PB ...

    I felt a little out of touch because I couldn't remember the candidates' names, but at least I could remember it wasn't Hamza.
    Last week I was dealing with a customer called Hunza, and it was not easy to spell it right...
    I can only sympathise, if you found that task difficult.
  • Jonathan
    Jonathan Posts: 22,107
    Leon said:

    That is the worst possible result for the Nats. A deeply uncharismatic new leader with an off putting demeanour, winning by a disputable and controversially narrow margin over a lovely young Christian lady, in an election envenomed with accusations of fixing, and fraud

    SUPERB

    Could be worse, could be Truss.
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    Is anyone actually listening to this speech?
  • Theuniondivvie
    Theuniondivvie Posts: 44,327
    I think I said at the start if Humza didn't fuck up he'd get it.
    He didn't fuck up, ergo..
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Driver said:

    It's always 52-48...

    In Scotland 55:45..
  • Leon
    Leon Posts: 63,049
    edited March 2023
    HYUFD said:

    This is wonderful news for Scottish Labour, Yousaf has a -20% rating with Scots compared to -4% for Sarwar and -9% for Starmer.

    Forbes was on -8%
    https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/tight-race-between-yousaf-and-forbes-among-snp-voters-while-sturgeons-ratings-are-up

    Forbes was, definitely, the greater long term threat to the Union. Yousaf will lose seats and support

    What a stupid choice. Sturgeon is gonna be like Merkel, in retrospect she will appear much less capable than she appeared when in office. She has bequeathed a total mess
  • Gardenwalker
    Gardenwalker Posts: 22,433
    Where’s MalcolmG with the informed commentary.
  • Flatlander
    Flatlander Posts: 5,137
    edited March 2023
    MikeL said:

    Is anyone actually listening to this speech?

    I have it on the radio but however much I try to listen it goes in one ear and out of the other.

    He really isn't great, is he?
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Leon said:

    That is the worst possible result for the Nats. A deeply uncharismatic new leader with an off putting demeanour, winning by a disputable and controversially narrow margin over a lovely young Christian lady, in an election envenomed with accusations of fixing, and fraud

    SUPERB

    And now we will see how effectively they can close ranks. Truss detonated an atom bomb in fissures of her party before there was a chance to close them, so what will Humza do to restore things - that he had a big lead amongst MSPs presumably helps as that is where the action will be, whereas Truss had a disadvantage there.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Gardenwalker said:

    Where’s MalcolmG with the informed commentary.

    Probably smashing plates in the kitchen and preparing to join Alba
  • SirNorfolkPassmore
    SirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,367
    Jonathan said:

    Start the Truss-o-meter. 49 days is the record to beat.

    You won't be able to get a lettuce north of the border for love nor money now.

    That's pretty much par for the course in Scotland, though.
  • Stuartinromford
    Stuartinromford Posts: 19,147
    Jonathan said:

    Start the Truss-o-meter. 49 days is the record to beat.

    Find a turnip, add some boogly eyes and point a webcam at it?
  • Leon
    Leon Posts: 63,049
    Mexicanpete said:

    Leon said:

    A hahahah

    Fucking catastrophe for the SNP

    You could have prepared that statement earlier for either candidate.
    No, a convincing Forbes win would have retooled the SNP for a further push on indy, in a few years. She would have been divisive but she might well have been an excellent First Minister, governing Scotland a lot better than Sturgeon

    But they went for The Useless

    CHORTLE
  • algarkirk
    algarkirk Posts: 14,974
    Leon said:

    That is the worst possible result for the Nats. A deeply uncharismatic new leader with an off putting demeanour, winning by a disputable and controversially narrow margin over a lovely young Christian lady, in an election envenomed with accusations of fixing, and fraud

    SUPERB

    Good result for Lab, Con and anoraks. SNP fall into a bear trap they have dug themselves. Narrowly averting the chance to appoint a change making star of very high quality. But she got enough votes that it will soon be very obvious that they have made a mistake.

  • Barnesian
    Barnesian Posts: 9,221
    Humza might surprise on the upside. Difficult on the downside.
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,458
    Being the anointed successor (by a tiny margin) if the prior regime get carted off to jail in chains may not play so well....
  • AlistairM
    AlistairM Posts: 2,005
    Popcorn time for non-SNP supporters.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    HYUFD said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Where’s MalcolmG with the informed commentary.

    Probably smashing plates in the kitchen and preparing to join Alba
    He wasn't already?
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    No really much of a mandate is it...
  • Malmesbury
    Malmesbury Posts: 55,723
    kinabalu said:

    Northern_Al said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Unpopular said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    FPT

    MikeL said:

    Betfair suggesting result has not leaked.

    Bounced around a bit just before 1pm but now settled at:

    Yousaf 1.34
    Forbes 3.45

    An extremely reliable source has told me the result of SNP leadership contest and the winner is


    I was waiting until the leader was announced before congratulating Sir Keir Starmer on winning the SNP Leadership Election. I'm going to have to find a new joke... Oh wait, I found one, it's the new leader of the SNP!

    Edit: That felt really harsh, actually. If I'd had a vote it would have gone to Humza (he can't be that bad!), though some of Forbes' ideas do intrigue me and I think she'd be a safe pair of hands - can't get past the gay (and other) stuff though.
    Wait a goddam minute, I thought Forbes was the favoured candidate of New New Labour?
    I guess the great PB tradition of X or Y are both bad for the EssEnnPee is alive and well (won't bother with the laughable concept of Z Regan).
    Speaking for Labour, and setting aside the independence question (on which I'm neutral), I don't think we care who wins. The key thing is that Sturgeon has gone. She was a formidable opponent, and her departure improves Labour's chances of making progress in Scotland, I think.
    Although according to Hyufd Kate Forbes is a Scottish Ann Widdecombe in which case that has to help Labour.
    Alternatively, she will
    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sickening to think the GOP still has it defenders.

    A jail in Washington has become the latest focal point of the US culture wars after a congressional delegation led by the Republican extremist Marjorie Taylor Greene visited defendants charged in 2021’s deadly January 6 insurrection at the US Capitol and championed them as “political prisoners”

    Greene high-fived the detainees and shook their hands, according to the Associated Press. As the tour group was leaving, the defendants chanted “Let’s go Brandon!”, an offensive phrase denigrating Democratic president Joe Biden.

    Greene was joined by fellow far-right Republican members of the House oversight committee during a two-hour tour of the DC jail on Friday. The group included extremist Colorado congresswoman Lauren Boebert, who embraced Micki Witthoeft, the mother of Ashli Babbitt, the woman shot dead by police as she participated in the Capitol riot, NBC News reported.

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/mar/27/marjorie-taylor-greene-led-delegation-to-visit-capitol-attack-defendants-in-jail

    If the main parties cannot even agree that mobs storming the legislature is a bad thing then the democracy is in a rough old place.

    Maybe they could contemplate a bit of the old loyal opposition approach.
    {Milo and Clodius have entered the chat}
  • RandallFlagg
    RandallFlagg Posts: 1,418
    No attacks on Labour or SKS from Youseless
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    edited March 2023
    What was the transfer situation? I assume he must have gotten some from Regan supporters, but how many could be fun.
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    Am I the only one thinking this ends up in court, with the SNP staff forced to turn over all their papers?
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    edited March 2023
    So all the Conservatives, SNP and Scottish Labour all have a British Asian male leader now, Starmer the only white male leader of the 2 main parties in the UK, England and Scotland
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    Test:

    Without rewinding - what can you remember of what he said (other than thanking family)?
  • Driver
    Driver Posts: 5,560
    Chris said:

    Driver said:

    Chris said:

    viewcode said:

    I didn't do a backstage analysis of the SNP leadership election because there wasn't enough info and I couldn't think of an informed pro-Hamza debater on PB ...

    I felt a little out of touch because I couldn't remember the candidates' names, but at least I could remember it wasn't Hamza.
    Last week I was dealing with a customer called Hunza, and it was not easy to spell it right...
    I can only sympathise, if you found that task difficult.
    Well, difficult in the sense of every time I had to type the word I had to remind myself to use the n not the m, because auto-pilot.
  • numbertwelve
    numbertwelve Posts: 7,728
    kle4 said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Well that’s a result that will satisfy no-one.

    Apart from Starmer..

    But it's not the most chaotic result possible - the winner has the majority support of the elected representatives after all, rather than a close win for someone who was (seemingly) disliked by most of them.
    I agree
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    That is the worst possible result for the Nats. A deeply uncharismatic new leader with an off putting demeanour, winning by a disputable and controversially narrow margin over a lovely young Christian lady, in an election envenomed with accusations of fixing, and fraud

    SUPERB

    And now we will see how effectively they can close ranks. Truss detonated an atom bomb in fissures of her party before there was a chance to close them, so what will Humza do to restore things - that he had a big lead amongst MSPs presumably helps as that is where the action will be, whereas Truss had a disadvantage there.
    Yes, I can’t see him having any immediate problems because he has more of a base among MSPs…

    However if polls start looking bad…
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    Flatlander said:

    MikeL said:

    Is anyone actually listening to this speech?

    I have it on the radio but however much I try to listen it goes in one ear and out of the other.

    He really isn't great, is he?
    No, he’s Useless.
  • Gardenwalker
    Gardenwalker Posts: 22,433
    Scotland, overwhelmingly white, now has a First Minister (bar accidents) and what is essentially an Opposition Leader, who are both from Pakistani Muslim backgrounds.

    Fascinating.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Theuniondivvie said:

    I think I said at the start if Humza didn't fuck up he'd get it.
    He didn't fuck up, ergo..

    Party which was happy with its former leader picks the candidate most associated with that leader and a continuity approach.
  • TOPPING
    TOPPING Posts: 44,060
    Driver said:

    It's always 52-48...

    It's like the golden ratio.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    That is the worst possible result for the Nats. A deeply uncharismatic new leader with an off putting demeanour, winning by a disputable and controversially narrow margin over a lovely young Christian lady, in an election envenomed with accusations of fixing, and fraud

    SUPERB

    Good result for Lab, Con and anoraks. SNP fall into a bear trap they have dug themselves. Narrowly averting the chance to appoint a change making star of very high quality. But she got enough votes that it will soon be very obvious that they have made a mistake.

    Forbes with 48% of SNP members also got a higher share than the 43% Sunak got of Conservative members last year
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Sandpit said:

    Am I the only one thinking this ends up in court, with the SNP staff forced to turn over all their papers?

    Which one of the losers would contemplate it?
  • Gardenwalker
    Gardenwalker Posts: 22,433
    Yousef is no Truss.
    PB Tories over reaching again.
  • Leon
    Leon Posts: 63,049
    algarkirk said:

    Leon said:

    That is the worst possible result for the Nats. A deeply uncharismatic new leader with an off putting demeanour, winning by a disputable and controversially narrow margin over a lovely young Christian lady, in an election envenomed with accusations of fixing, and fraud

    SUPERB

    Good result for Lab, Con and anoraks. SNP fall into a bear trap they have dug themselves. Narrowly averting the chance to appoint a change making star of very high quality. But she got enough votes that it will soon be very obvious that they have made a mistake.

    But she might have blown her one big chance. Will she even want to stay in a party when so many MPs and MSPs consider her heartfelt religious views to be "simply unacceptable"

    The Nats will now sink into a brutal internal war, with a dickhead as a leader. HAHAHAHAHAH
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    He's not very good is he. Stumbling over his words and repeating himself
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:

    This is wonderful news for Scottish Labour, Yousaf has a -20% rating with Scots compared to -4% for Sarwar and -9% for Starmer.

    Forbes was on -8%
    https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/tight-race-between-yousaf-and-forbes-among-snp-voters-while-sturgeons-ratings-are-up

    Forbes was, definitely, the greater long term threat to the Union. Yousaf will lose seats and support

    What a stupid choice. Sturgeon is gonna be like Merkel, in retrospect she will appear much less capable than she appeared when in office. She has bequeathed a total mess
    That’s a great comparison. Her whole legacy is about to unravel itself.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    edited March 2023
    kle4 said:

    What was the transfer situation? I assume he must have gotten some from Regan supporters, but how many could be fun.

    Ms Forbes got 3,331 of Ms Regan's second preferences, Mr Yousaf got 1,696 of those second preferences

    Around 500 didn't transfer

    https://twitter.com/conor_matchett/status/1640341241291239425?s=46
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Gardenwalker said:

    Yousef is no Truss.
    PB Tories over reaching again.

    No, he hasn't got Truss' brains
  • LostPassword
    LostPassword Posts: 19,679
    edited March 2023
    Leon said:

    That is the worst possible result for the Nats. A deeply uncharismatic new leader with an off putting demeanour, winning by a disputable and controversially narrow margin over a lovely young Christian lady, in an election envenomed with accusations of fixing, and fraud

    SUPERB

    I think a 52-48 win by Forbes on second preferences, where she was behind on first preferences, would have been worse for the SNP.

    A lot of the younger SNP members and supporters would have found it very hard to rally behind Forbes, and she didn't have strong support amongst MSPs either.

    Yousaf is definitely the, "don't rock the boat," candidate, so a dramatic Truss-style implosion is least likely.
  • Mexicanpete
    Mexicanpete Posts: 33,115
    MarqueeMark said:

    Being the anointed successor (by a tiny margin) if the prior regime get carted off to jail in chains may not play so well....

    Humza is left of centre so votes will not haemorrhage to SLab. Forbes is right of Attila the Hun, the lefties would have left in droves.
  • SirNorfolkPassmore
    SirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,367
    edited March 2023
    kle4 said:

    What was the transfer situation? I assume he must have gotten some from Regan supporters, but how many could be fun.

    Yousaf got 1,696 transfers; Forbes 3,321. That leaves about 500 who presumably didn't use second pref.

    That's not a bad second pref rate for Yousaf. I'm always very sceptical about claims that X will be the overwhelming recipient of second prefs. Normally, even when the second pref seems obvious, more people than expected don't do the obvious.
  • malcolmg
    malcolmg Posts: 44,523
    MikeL said:

    Only 50,000 voted - pretty poor.

    that is probly close to 100% of real members
  • AlistairM
    AlistairM Posts: 2,005
    I'm reminded of the quote on war about you should do what your opponent least wants you to do. It seems the SNP have not heeded this. They have done exactly what their opponents wanted them to do. Just as the Tories did with Truss last Autumn. The Tories took less than 2 months to correct it. Let's see what happens now.
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    Gardenwalker said:

    Yousef is no Truss.
    PB Tories over reaching again.

    He isn’t that good.
  • Chris
    Chris Posts: 12,059
    Leon said:

    That is the worst possible result for the Nats. A deeply uncharismatic new leader with an off putting demeanour, winning by a disputable and controversially narrow margin over a lovely young Christian lady, in an election envenomed with accusations of fixing, and fraud

    SUPERB

    Hmm - "deeply uncharismatic" versus "lovely young Christian lady". Why don't you say what you mean?
  • Wulfrun_Phil
    Wulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,784
    DavidL said:

    Flatlander said:

    MikeL said:

    Is anyone actually listening to this speech?

    I have it on the radio but however much I try to listen it goes in one ear and out of the other.

    He really isn't great, is he?
    No, he’s Useless.
    Yousless as a name is going to stick.
  • AlistairM
    AlistairM Posts: 2,005
    Ash Regan looks seriously annoyed.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Gardenwalker said:

    Yousef is no Truss.
    PB Tories over reaching again.

    You would have thought PBers would know not to misunderestimate a chap of Pakistani heritage.
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    "Putin and Xi’s plot to control the internet will leave the West in the dust
    Britain’s creaking framework risks being left behind by the leaders’ technology pact
    Andrew Orlowski" (£)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/03/27/britains-creaking-internet-framework-risks-left-behind-china/
  • Mexicanpete
    Mexicanpete Posts: 33,115
    Slackbladder said:

    He's not very good is he. Stumbling over his words and repeating himself

    You all fawned over Johnson when he did that.
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    MikeL said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Final round

    Forbes 23890
    Yousaf 26032

    So hapless Yousaf wins 53% to 47% and the Sturgeon SNP establishment ensures victory for their candidate

    Thought the SNP had more members.
    They do!

    Turnout was only 70%.
    Surprisingly low really. Makes you wonder how many of the other 20k actually have a pulse.
  • Theuniondivvie
    Theuniondivvie Posts: 44,327
    Can I just thank all the right wing Unionists, almost all of whom don't have a vote in Scotland let alone in the leadership election, for their slobbering over Kate and hating on Humza. It was all most persuasive.
  • Leon
    Leon Posts: 63,049
    Gardenwalker said:

    Yousef is no Truss.
    PB Tories over reaching again.

    No, Truss is in a league of her own, in terms of bad choices

    But Yousaf is still a very poor choice. The love child of IDS and Ed Miliband
  • TOPPING
    TOPPING Posts: 44,060
    @Theuniondivvie

    Can you let me know in a couple of sentences what this result means pls.

    TIA
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Mexicanpete said:

    Slackbladder said:

    He's not very good is he. Stumbling over his words and repeating himself

    You all fawned over Johnson when he did that.
    Your memory is poor.
  • Chris
    Chris Posts: 12,059
    Driver said:

    Chris said:

    Driver said:

    Chris said:

    viewcode said:

    I didn't do a backstage analysis of the SNP leadership election because there wasn't enough info and I couldn't think of an informed pro-Hamza debater on PB ...

    I felt a little out of touch because I couldn't remember the candidates' names, but at least I could remember it wasn't Hamza.
    Last week I was dealing with a customer called Hunza, and it was not easy to spell it right...
    I can only sympathise, if you found that task difficult.
    Well, difficult in the sense of every time I had to type the word I had to remind myself to use the n not the m, because auto-pilot.
    What a tough time you must have had. As I said, I can only sympathise.
  • Gardenwalker
    Gardenwalker Posts: 22,433
    Leon said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Yousef is no Truss.
    PB Tories over reaching again.

    No, Truss is in a league of her own, in terms of bad choices

    But Yousaf is still a very poor choice. The love child of IDS and Ed Miliband
    IDS?

    Personally I would say Justin Trudeau and Andy Burnham (2015 grade).
  • Leon
    Leon Posts: 63,049
    I'm getting advice from Scottish insiders that Yousaf is genuinely thick, and likely to be a disastrous leader. This is from someone who really knows

    Splendid
  • Theuniondivvie
    Theuniondivvie Posts: 44,327
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    What was the transfer situation? I assume he must have gotten some from Regan supporters, but how many could be fun.

    Ms Forbes got 3,331 of Ms Regan's second preferences, Mr Yousaf got 1,696 of those second preferences

    Around 500 didn't transfer

    https://twitter.com/conor_matchett/status/1640341241291239425?s=46
    So Reganites smashing it for Kate was bollox then.
  • Mexicanpete
    Mexicanpete Posts: 33,115
    Slackbladder said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    Slackbladder said:

    He's not very good is he. Stumbling over his words and repeating himself

    You all fawned over Johnson when he did that.
    Your memory is poor.
    It is, but in this case how come?
  • malcolmg
    malcolmg Posts: 44,523
    Gardenwalker said:

    Where’s MalcolmG with the informed commentary.

    Rigged from the start, process shortened to make it difficult for the other candidates, full party apparatus supporting Uselss , skullduggery till the end and disaster for Scotland. Will also make it harder to get the evidence for court cases released for sure.
    LostPassword said:

    Leon said:

    That is the worst possible result for the Nats. A deeply uncharismatic new leader with an off putting demeanour, winning by a disputable and controversially narrow margin over a lovely young Christian lady, in an election envenomed with accusations of fixing, and fraud

    SUPERB

    I think a 52-48 win by Forbes on second preferences, where she was behind on first preferences, would have been worse for the SNP.

    A lot of the younger SNP members and supporters would have found it very hard to rally behind Forbes, and she didn't have strong support amongst MSPs either.

    Yousaf is definitely the, "don't rock the boat," candidate, so a dramatic Truss-style implosion is least likely.
    Unfortunately it is The Titanic so rocking was not the problem.
  • Nigel_Foremain
    Nigel_Foremain Posts: 14,851
    Gardenwalker said:

    Scotland, overwhelmingly white, now has a First Minister (bar accidents) and what is essentially an Opposition Leader, who are both from Pakistani Muslim backgrounds.

    Fascinating.

    And the UK has a PM called Sunak. Farage et al must be doing his/their nut
  • TOPPING
    TOPPING Posts: 44,060
    Leon said:

    I'm getting advice from Scottish insiders that Yousaf is genuinely thick, and likely to be a disastrous leader. This is from someone who really knows

    Splendid

    Scottish *Albanian* insiders by any chance?
  • SirNorfolkPassmore
    SirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,367
    HYUFD said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Yousef is no Truss.
    PB Tories over reaching again.

    No, he hasn't got Truss' brains
    Who has got them now? I'd heard it was going to be the Ashmolean but they'd had difficulty sourcing a small enough glass cabinet.
  • AlistairM
    AlistairM Posts: 2,005
    John Curtice on BBC. Yousaf has to offer offer Forbes some position. What happens if she doesn't take it? Queen over the water.
  • malcolmg
    malcolmg Posts: 44,523
    Slackbladder said:

    He's not very good is he. Stumbling over his words and repeating himself

    Understatement of the century.
  • Leon
    Leon Posts: 63,049
    Gardenwalker said:

    Leon said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Yousef is no Truss.
    PB Tories over reaching again.

    No, Truss is in a league of her own, in terms of bad choices

    But Yousaf is still a very poor choice. The love child of IDS and Ed Miliband
    IDS?

    Personally I would say Justin Trudeau and Andy Burnham (2015 grade).
    Are you on drugs??

    I don't particularly like Justin Trudeau, and loathe much of his Woke politics, but I can see he has charisma and charm, if you're in the mood. And he is a proven winner

    I don't see any of this in Yousaf, at all

    A truly daft comparison
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Theuniondivvie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    What was the transfer situation? I assume he must have gotten some from Regan supporters, but how many could be fun.

    Ms Forbes got 3,331 of Ms Regan's second preferences, Mr Yousaf got 1,696 of those second preferences

    Around 500 didn't transfer

    https://twitter.com/conor_matchett/status/1640341241291239425?s=46
    So Reganites smashing it for Kate was bollox then.
    Looks like it.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Theuniondivvie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    What was the transfer situation? I assume he must have gotten some from Regan supporters, but how many could be fun.

    Ms Forbes got 3,331 of Ms Regan's second preferences, Mr Yousaf got 1,696 of those second preferences

    Around 500 didn't transfer

    https://twitter.com/conor_matchett/status/1640341241291239425?s=46
    So Reganites smashing it for Kate was bollox then.
    Regan preferences went 2:1 to Forbes
  • Driver
    Driver Posts: 5,560
    Chris said:

    Driver said:

    Chris said:

    Driver said:

    Chris said:

    viewcode said:

    I didn't do a backstage analysis of the SNP leadership election because there wasn't enough info and I couldn't think of an informed pro-Hamza debater on PB ...

    I felt a little out of touch because I couldn't remember the candidates' names, but at least I could remember it wasn't Hamza.
    Last week I was dealing with a customer called Hunza, and it was not easy to spell it right...
    I can only sympathise, if you found that task difficult.
    Well, difficult in the sense of every time I had to type the word I had to remind myself to use the n not the m, because auto-pilot.
    What a tough time you must have had. As I said, I can only sympathise.
    Dear me, what on earth is your problem?
  • Nigel_Foremain
    Nigel_Foremain Posts: 14,851
    Mexicanpete said:

    Slackbladder said:

    He's not very good is he. Stumbling over his words and repeating himself

    You all fawned over Johnson when he did that.
    I cringed
  • sarissa
    sarissa Posts: 2,190
    kle4 said:

    What was the transfer situation? I assume he must have gotten some from Regan supporters, but how many could be fun.

    60% Forbes to 30% Yousaf, Forbes needed 80% to swing the result - MSM virtually ignoring Regan didn’t help.
  • malcolmg
    malcolmg Posts: 44,523
    Sandpit said:

    Am I the only one thinking this ends up in court, with the SNP staff forced to turn over all their papers?

    They will have been shredded by now as normal
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    All new leaders usually get a boost, Yousaf should get one.
  • Chris
    Chris Posts: 12,059
    Leon said:

    I'm getting advice from Scottish insiders that Yousaf is genuinely thick, and likely to be a disastrous leader. This is from someone who really knows

    Splendid

    But who knows? Maybe they're just influenced by the fact he isn't "lovely", "young" or "Christian"? And not even white, come to think of it.
  • malcolmg
    malcolmg Posts: 44,523
    HYUFD said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Where’s MalcolmG with the informed commentary.

    Probably smashing plates in the kitchen and preparing to join Alba
    You halfwit I have been in Alba since day 1
  • LostPassword
    LostPassword Posts: 19,679
    Theuniondivvie said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    What was the transfer situation? I assume he must have gotten some from Regan supporters, but how many could be fun.

    Ms Forbes got 3,331 of Ms Regan's second preferences, Mr Yousaf got 1,696 of those second preferences

    Around 500 didn't transfer

    https://twitter.com/conor_matchett/status/1640341241291239425?s=46
    So Reganites smashing it for Kate was bollox then.
    Nearly 2:1 is pretty strong for an internal party election, but people always underestimate the spread of preference transfers.
  • AlistairM
    AlistairM Posts: 2,005
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    All new leaders usually get a boost, Yousaf should get one.

    Most new leaders are seen as an improvement over their predecessor. Is that the case here?
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    AlistairM said:

    John Curtice on BBC. Yousaf has to offer offer Forbes some position. What happens if she doesn't take it? Queen over the water.

    What’s the Scottish Government’s equivalent of Northern Ireland Secretary?
  • RochdalePioneers
    RochdalePioneers Posts: 30,611
    Useless faces a pretty existential question - what is the SNP for? He robustly defended the indefensible during the debates, where even catastrofucks like the ferry procurement was apparently something to be proud of.

    You can't make the case for independence by being functionally shit as a government. OK, so they are *less* shit than the Westminster government but that is a pretty low bar.

    The challenge for Dross, Anus and Alex English-Accent is to be relevant. Their opposition to independence has been their USP, and with Useless now in the FM chair it needs to be competence. Sturgeon looked and sounded competent even if it was just a veneer. He won't have that luxury...
  • Leon
    Leon Posts: 63,049
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Can I just thank all the right wing Unionists, almost all of whom don't have a vote in Scotland let alone in the leadership election, for their slobbering over Kate and hating on Humza. It was all most persuasive.

    I wonder if it was deliberate move, by the horrible Spectator Mob - to praise Forbes to the skies, and KEEP mentioning her religious views, so the progressive SNP members would reluctantly turn down the most obviously talented candidate, in favour of this Woke knob Yousaf

    You've been stitched up and kippered by the nasty rightwing English intellgentsia
  • Theuniondivvie
    Theuniondivvie Posts: 44,327
    edited March 2023
    TOPPING said:

    @Theuniondivvie

    Can you let me know in a couple of sentences what this result means pls.

    TIA

    Smartarse response: Humza is now leader of the SNP. He's also very strong odds on to be next FM.

    Less smartarse, he will really have to grow on the job (which unlike that weirdo Truss I think he may be capable of doing) or there'll be another leadership election after a bad result, eg the next UK GE.
  • FF43
    FF43 Posts: 18,213
    LostPassword said:

    Leon said:

    That is the worst possible result for the Nats. A deeply uncharismatic new leader with an off putting demeanour, winning by a disputable and controversially narrow margin over a lovely young Christian lady, in an election envenomed with accusations of fixing, and fraud

    SUPERB

    I think a 52-48 win by Forbes on second preferences, where she was behind on first preferences, would have been worse for the SNP.

    A lot of the younger SNP members and supporters would have found it very hard to rally behind Forbes, and she didn't have strong support amongst MSPs either.

    Yousaf is definitely the, "don't rock the boat," candidate, so a dramatic Truss-style implosion is least likely.
    Agree. The two front runners are flawed in their different ways. The one they chose is less divisive and therefore less of a direct threat to the party, which presumably the members care about.
  • Dura_Ace
    Dura_Ace Posts: 14,645
    They didn't really have much of a choice. Reg Ashton was remotely operated by Salmond using an app and Forbes was Vanilla ISIS with antediluvian cultural values. So it had to be the other one. Good luck to him because he's going to need it.
  • TOPPING
    TOPPING Posts: 44,060
    Theuniondivvie said:

    TOPPING said:

    @Theuniondivvie

    Can you let me know in a couple of sentences what this result means pls.

    TIA

    Smart arse response: Humza is now leader of the SNP. He's also very strong odds on to be next FM.

    Less smartarse, he will really have to grow on the job (which unlike that weirdo Truss I think he may be capable of doing) or there'll be another leadership election after a bad result, eg the next UK GE.
    Thanks but what does it mean for the independence aspirations of the SNP and the balance of Scottish politics?

    What about a header, while we're at it?!
  • Andy_JS
    Andy_JS Posts: 36,292
    Rather shocking that life expectancy for men in the US is just 73 according to the latest figures.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/01/why-american-men-die-younger-than-women-on-average-and-how-to-fix-it.html
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    edited March 2023
    Some comments on Wings over Scotland after this result


    'What a crock!

    Bye-bye SNP, bye-bye…

    Don’t let the door hit your ar$e on the way out of Scotland’s political scene.

    Humbug Yousless… Ha-ha-ha! Good luck! You’ll fricking need it!'

    'LIke I said today is the day the SNP died.'

    'Today we witness the SNP demise as a party and Scotland independence movement dead and buried for good.'
    '
    …And so the longest suicide note in history is signed off by the SNP.'

    'Well fuck me. What an absolute disaster.
    PLEASE ALBA, stand candidates in every constituency. Otherwise I’m going to have to spoil my ballot.'
    https://wingsoverscotland.com/the-hollow-crown/
  • Leon
    Leon Posts: 63,049
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    I'm getting advice from Scottish insiders that Yousaf is genuinely thick, and likely to be a disastrous leader. This is from someone who really knows

    Splendid

    Scottish *Albanian* insiders by any chance?
    If that's a pun on Alba and Albanian, it's very good!
  • Jim_Miller
    Jim_Miller Posts: 3,414
    Have the Scottish Greens said anything yet?

    Or will they keep quiet until negotiations are over?
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,458
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    AlistairM said:

    John Curtice on BBC. Yousaf has to offer offer Forbes some position. What happens if she doesn't take it? Queen over the water.

    What’s the Scottish Government’s equivalent of Northern Ireland Secretary?
    Minister for Ferry Procurement.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    kle4 said:

    What was the transfer situation? I assume he must have gotten some from Regan supporters, but how many could be fun.

    Ms Forbes got 3,331 of Ms Regan's second preferences, Mr Yousaf got 1,696 of those second preferences

    Around 500 didn't transfer

    https://twitter.com/conor_matchett/status/1640341241291239425?s=46
    So, Forbes needed around 90% of the transfers but got 66%. Good, but it always seemed a little unrealistic for her to get almost all the transfers in this situation.

    At least the 500 or so non transfers didn't prove decisive, imagine the rage.
  • OldKingCole
    OldKingCole Posts: 35,275
    malcolmg said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Where’s MalcolmG with the informed commentary.

    Probably smashing plates in the kitchen and preparing to join Alba
    You halfwit I have been in Alba since day 1
    Colour me surprised. NOT!
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