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From a 70% chance to a 7% one – betting on BoJo as GE CON leader – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,164
edited April 2023 in General
imageFrom a 70% chance to a 7% one – betting on BoJo as GE CON leader – politicalbetting.com

From the perspective of those who bet on politics. this makes an interesting betting chart showing how the former PM and GE2019 winner declined in the Conservative leader at the general election betting.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,195
    My colleague's just passed me a letter written regarding the loos policy in her kid's school. A more heady combination of Orwellian/Huxley nonsense with a side order of woke and sci-fi dystopian collective punishment combined with presumed guilt I haven't seen.
    It's like something out of the Running Man.
  • Sickening to think the GOP still has it defenders.

    A jail in Washington has become the latest focal point of the US culture wars after a congressional delegation led by the Republican extremist Marjorie Taylor Greene visited defendants charged in 2021’s deadly January 6 insurrection at the US Capitol and championed them as “political prisoners”

    Greene high-fived the detainees and shook their hands, according to the Associated Press. As the tour group was leaving, the defendants chanted “Let’s go Brandon!”, an offensive phrase denigrating Democratic president Joe Biden.

    Greene was joined by fellow far-right Republican members of the House oversight committee during a two-hour tour of the DC jail on Friday. The group included extremist Colorado congresswoman Lauren Boebert, who embraced Micki Witthoeft, the mother of Ashli Babbitt, the woman shot dead by police as she participated in the Capitol riot, NBC News reported.


    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/mar/27/marjorie-taylor-greene-led-delegation-to-visit-capitol-attack-defendants-in-jail
  • My word, did I bagsy a first?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,978
    Pulpstar said:

    My colleague's just passed me a letter written regarding the loos policy in her kid's school. A more heady combination of Orwellian/Huxley nonsense with a side order of woke and sci-fi dystopian collective punishment combined with presumed guilt I haven't seen.
    It's like something out of the Running Man.

    Ah for the good old days of my school when you'd get a (quite hard) boot up the arse from one of the more psycho gym teachers if caught in the bogs during class time.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486

    Sickening to think the GOP still has it defenders.

    A jail in Washington has become the latest focal point of the US culture wars after a congressional delegation led by the Republican extremist Marjorie Taylor Greene visited defendants charged in 2021’s deadly January 6 insurrection at the US Capitol and championed them as “political prisoners”

    Greene high-fived the detainees and shook their hands, according to the Associated Press. As the tour group was leaving, the defendants chanted “Let’s go Brandon!”, an offensive phrase denigrating Democratic president Joe Biden.

    Greene was joined by fellow far-right Republican members of the House oversight committee during a two-hour tour of the DC jail on Friday. The group included extremist Colorado congresswoman Lauren Boebert, who embraced Micki Witthoeft, the mother of Ashli Babbitt, the woman shot dead by police as she participated in the Capitol riot, NBC News reported.


    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/mar/27/marjorie-taylor-greene-led-delegation-to-visit-capitol-attack-defendants-in-jail

    Did we ever discover what happened to ‘Mr Ed’?

  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 883
    edited March 2023

    FPT

    MikeL said:

    Betfair suggesting result has not leaked.

    Bounced around a bit just before 1pm but now settled at:

    Yousaf 1.34
    Forbes 3.45

    An extremely reliable source has told me the result of SNP leadership contest and the winner is


    I was waiting until the leader was announced before congratulating Sir Keir Starmer on winning the SNP Leadership Election. I'm going to have to find a new joke... Oh wait, I found one, it's the new leader of the SNP!

    Edit: That felt really harsh, actually. If I'd had a vote it would have gone to Humza (he can't be that bad!), though some of Forbes' ideas do intrigue me and I think she'd be a safe pair of hands - can't get past the gay (and other) stuff though.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    Popcorn readied for the incoming SNP meltdown…
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,195

    Pulpstar said:

    My colleague's just passed me a letter written regarding the loos policy in her kid's school. A more heady combination of Orwellian/Huxley nonsense with a side order of woke and sci-fi dystopian collective punishment combined with presumed guilt I haven't seen.
    It's like something out of the Running Man.

    Ah for the good old days of my school when you'd get a (quite hard) boot up the arse from one of the more psycho gym teachers if caught in the bogs during class time.
    If this nonsense is persisting when mine gets to school I'll probably have a run in with them. Scanned ID every time kids go to the bog to identify "patterns" - christ.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,559
    Which SNP leader would be best for the unionist cause?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,084
    Pulpstar said:

    My colleague's just passed me a letter written regarding the loos policy in her kid's school. A more heady combination of Orwellian/Huxley nonsense with a side order of woke and sci-fi dystopian collective punishment combined with presumed guilt I haven't seen.
    It's like something out of the Running Man.

    Is that the letter or the policy ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,195
    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    My colleague's just passed me a letter written regarding the loos policy in her kid's school. A more heady combination of Orwellian/Huxley nonsense with a side order of woke and sci-fi dystopian collective punishment combined with presumed guilt I haven't seen.
    It's like something out of the Running Man.

    Is that the letter or the policy ?
    Well the letter describes the policy in some detail. So both.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,195
    What time is the SNP reveal ?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,586
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    My colleague's just passed me a letter written regarding the loos policy in her kid's school. A more heady combination of Orwellian/Huxley nonsense with a side order of woke and sci-fi dystopian collective punishment combined with presumed guilt I haven't seen.
    It's like something out of the Running Man.

    Ah for the good old days of my school when you'd get a (quite hard) boot up the arse from one of the more psycho gym teachers if caught in the bogs during class time.
    If this nonsense is persisting when mine gets to school I'll probably have a run in with them. Scanned ID every time kids go to the bog to identify "patterns" - christ.
    I know of at least half a dozen people who have recently moved to the sandpit, who cite schools as one of the key reasons why they moved. Between the woke nonsense and the pervasive surveillance in UK schools, they feel it’s better to take a job 3,500 miles away, to make sure their kids get a proper education.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,486
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    My colleague's just passed me a letter written regarding the loos policy in her kid's school. A more heady combination of Orwellian/Huxley nonsense with a side order of woke and sci-fi dystopian collective punishment combined with presumed guilt I haven't seen.
    It's like something out of the Running Man.

    Ah for the good old days of my school when you'd get a (quite hard) boot up the arse from one of the more psycho gym teachers if caught in the bogs during class time.
    If this nonsense is persisting when mine gets to school I'll probably have a run in with them. Scanned ID every time kids go to the bog to identify "patterns" - christ.
    Wait, what? What is this?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,978
    edited March 2023
    Unpopular said:

    FPT

    MikeL said:

    Betfair suggesting result has not leaked.

    Bounced around a bit just before 1pm but now settled at:

    Yousaf 1.34
    Forbes 3.45

    An extremely reliable source has told me the result of SNP leadership contest and the winner is


    I was waiting until the leader was announced before congratulating Sir Keir Starmer on winning the SNP Leadership Election. I'm going to have to find a new joke... Oh wait, I found one, it's the new leader of the SNP!

    Edit: That felt really harsh, actually. If I'd had a vote it would have gone to Humza (he can't be that bad!), though some of Forbes' ideas do intrigue me and I think she'd be a safe pair of hands - can't get past the gay (and other) stuff though.
    Wait a goddam minute, I thought Forbes was the favoured candidate of New New Labour?
    I guess the great PB tradition of X or Y are both bad for the EssEnnPee is alive and well (won't bother with the laughable concept of Z Regan).
  • Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    My colleague's just passed me a letter written regarding the loos policy in her kid's school. A more heady combination of Orwellian/Huxley nonsense with a side order of woke and sci-fi dystopian collective punishment combined with presumed guilt I haven't seen.
    It's like something out of the Running Man.

    Is that the letter or the policy ?
    Well the letter describes the policy in some detail. So both.
    Is it a state school or private?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    Andy_JS said:

    Which SNP leader would be best for the unionist cause?

    I think it’s difficult to say. I think the one who has the best chance of continuing the SNP hegemony is probably Forbes - if she can survive long enough to assert her authority, which is a huge question mark.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,195

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    My colleague's just passed me a letter written regarding the loos policy in her kid's school. A more heady combination of Orwellian/Huxley nonsense with a side order of woke and sci-fi dystopian collective punishment combined with presumed guilt I haven't seen.
    It's like something out of the Running Man.

    Is that the letter or the policy ?
    Well the letter describes the policy in some detail. So both.
    Is it a state school or private?
    Academy
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,372
    Andy_JS said:

    Which SNP leader would be best for the unionist cause?

    Youssaf.
  • Just watched episode 1 of season 4 of Succession.

    I'm going to miss this show.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,384
    edited March 2023

    My word, did I bagsy a first?

    Yes, though not for the joke - that's the second time you've posted it, I think (third if you include at the end of the last thread).
    You need some new material.
  • My word, did I bagsy a first?

    Yes, though not for the joke - that's the second time you've posted it, I think (third if you include at the end of the last thread).

    You need some new material.
    I'm just showing my environmentalist credentials, recycling is good.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,978

    My word, did I bagsy a first?

    Yes, though not for the joke - that's the second time you've posted it, I think (third if you include at the end of the last thread).

    You need some new material.
    PB memes only improve with age. I can't get enough of that pineapple on pizza patter.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,784

    Just watched episode 1 of season 4 of Succession.

    I'm going to miss this show.

    Still finishing off season 3, no spoilers please!
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,384

    Unpopular said:

    FPT

    MikeL said:

    Betfair suggesting result has not leaked.

    Bounced around a bit just before 1pm but now settled at:

    Yousaf 1.34
    Forbes 3.45

    An extremely reliable source has told me the result of SNP leadership contest and the winner is


    I was waiting until the leader was announced before congratulating Sir Keir Starmer on winning the SNP Leadership Election. I'm going to have to find a new joke... Oh wait, I found one, it's the new leader of the SNP!

    Edit: That felt really harsh, actually. If I'd had a vote it would have gone to Humza (he can't be that bad!), though some of Forbes' ideas do intrigue me and I think she'd be a safe pair of hands - can't get past the gay (and other) stuff though.
    Wait a goddam minute, I thought Forbes was the favoured candidate of New New Labour?
    I guess the great PB tradition of X or Y are both bad for the EssEnnPee is alive and well (won't bother with the laughable concept of Z Regan).
    Speaking for Labour, and setting aside the independence question (on which I'm neutral), I don't think we care who wins. The key thing is that Sturgeon has gone. She was a formidable opponent, and her departure improves Labour's chances of making progress in Scotland, I think.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    edited March 2023
    Scottish Greens to decide immediately following result if they will continue coalition. Sounds very much if it’s Forbes, they’re off…
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    What is happening at the school, then? Swipe cards to go to the loo?

    What else? And is this to catch potential illicit activity in the loos?
  • My word, did I bagsy a first?

    Yes, though not for the joke - that's the second time you've posted it, I think (third if you include at the end of the last thread).

    You need some new material.
    PB memes only improve with age. I can't get enough of that pineapple on pizza patter.
    That’s not a meme, it’s a statement of fact.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,191

    Unpopular said:

    FPT

    MikeL said:

    Betfair suggesting result has not leaked.

    Bounced around a bit just before 1pm but now settled at:

    Yousaf 1.34
    Forbes 3.45

    An extremely reliable source has told me the result of SNP leadership contest and the winner is


    I was waiting until the leader was announced before congratulating Sir Keir Starmer on winning the SNP Leadership Election. I'm going to have to find a new joke... Oh wait, I found one, it's the new leader of the SNP!

    Edit: That felt really harsh, actually. If I'd had a vote it would have gone to Humza (he can't be that bad!), though some of Forbes' ideas do intrigue me and I think she'd be a safe pair of hands - can't get past the gay (and other) stuff though.
    Wait a goddam minute, I thought Forbes was the favoured candidate of New New Labour?
    I guess the great PB tradition of X or Y are both bad for the EssEnnPee is alive and well (won't bother with the laughable concept of Z Regan).
    Speaking for Labour, and setting aside the independence question (on which I'm neutral), I don't think we care who wins. The key thing is that Sturgeon has gone. She was a formidable opponent, and her departure improves Labour's chances of making progress in Scotland, I think.
    Although according to Hyufd Kate Forbes is a Scottish Ann Widdecombe in which case that has to help Labour.
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 883

    Unpopular said:

    FPT

    MikeL said:

    Betfair suggesting result has not leaked.

    Bounced around a bit just before 1pm but now settled at:

    Yousaf 1.34
    Forbes 3.45

    An extremely reliable source has told me the result of SNP leadership contest and the winner is


    I was waiting until the leader was announced before congratulating Sir Keir Starmer on winning the SNP Leadership Election. I'm going to have to find a new joke... Oh wait, I found one, it's the new leader of the SNP!

    Edit: That felt really harsh, actually. If I'd had a vote it would have gone to Humza (he can't be that bad!), though some of Forbes' ideas do intrigue me and I think she'd be a safe pair of hands - can't get past the gay (and other) stuff though.
    Wait a goddam minute, I thought Forbes was the favoured candidate of New New Labour?
    I guess the great PB tradition of X or Y are both bad for the EssEnnPee is alive and well (won't bother with the laughable concept of Z Regan).
    To be fair, based on the splits that have emerged I doubt either will be able to hold together the SNP's electoral coalition in the same way Sturgeon did. Forbes will turn off progressives, but her criticism of the independence movement having stagnated does hold enough water to resonate.

    It is possible that either could surprise on the upside though, a poster a while back made the comment that people expressed similar sentiments when Sturgeon replaced Salmond. Additionally, the stickiness of the SNP vote could save the new leader. If you're of the independence persuasion, the SNP is probably still your best vehicle and so it'll be relatively easy to just sit back and cast your ballot for the SNP whenever required. Independence supporters of all political stripes have been doing it for almost a decade now.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,191

    Just watched episode 1 of season 4 of Succession.

    I'm going to miss this show.

    Still finishing off season 3, no spoilers please!
    I am SO far off the pace - just started Ozark.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,384
    kinabalu said:

    Unpopular said:

    FPT

    MikeL said:

    Betfair suggesting result has not leaked.

    Bounced around a bit just before 1pm but now settled at:

    Yousaf 1.34
    Forbes 3.45

    An extremely reliable source has told me the result of SNP leadership contest and the winner is


    I was waiting until the leader was announced before congratulating Sir Keir Starmer on winning the SNP Leadership Election. I'm going to have to find a new joke... Oh wait, I found one, it's the new leader of the SNP!

    Edit: That felt really harsh, actually. If I'd had a vote it would have gone to Humza (he can't be that bad!), though some of Forbes' ideas do intrigue me and I think she'd be a safe pair of hands - can't get past the gay (and other) stuff though.
    Wait a goddam minute, I thought Forbes was the favoured candidate of New New Labour?
    I guess the great PB tradition of X or Y are both bad for the EssEnnPee is alive and well (won't bother with the laughable concept of Z Regan).
    Speaking for Labour, and setting aside the independence question (on which I'm neutral), I don't think we care who wins. The key thing is that Sturgeon has gone. She was a formidable opponent, and her departure improves Labour's chances of making progress in Scotland, I think.
    Although according to Hyufd Kate Forbes is a Scottish Ann Widdecombe in which case that has to help Labour.
    Yes. I'd taken that view into account. And ignored it.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    edited March 2023

    Unpopular said:

    FPT

    MikeL said:

    Betfair suggesting result has not leaked.

    Bounced around a bit just before 1pm but now settled at:

    Yousaf 1.34
    Forbes 3.45

    An extremely reliable source has told me the result of SNP leadership contest and the winner is


    I was waiting until the leader was announced before congratulating Sir Keir Starmer on winning the SNP Leadership Election. I'm going to have to find a new joke... Oh wait, I found one, it's the new leader of the SNP!

    Edit: That felt really harsh, actually. If I'd had a vote it would have gone to Humza (he can't be that bad!), though some of Forbes' ideas do intrigue me and I think she'd be a safe pair of hands - can't get past the gay (and other) stuff though.
    Wait a goddam minute, I thought Forbes was the favoured candidate of New New Labour?
    I guess the great PB tradition of X or Y are both bad for the EssEnnPee is alive and well (won't bother with the laughable concept of Z Regan).
    Speaking for Labour, and setting aside the independence question (on which I'm neutral), I don't think we care who wins. The key thing is that Sturgeon has gone. She was a formidable opponent, and her departure improves Labour's chances of making progress in Scotland, I think.
    Yes I think that's right. She has fucked the independence movement, largely it seems because there is not the strength of feeling for independence which would have sustained her continued effort.

    And as far as you are concerned, it's unlikely there will be posters of SKS in the pocket of Forbes/Hamza because like me, 99% of people wouldn't recognise either if they were standing in front of them.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,792
    edited March 2023
    Pulpstar said:

    What time is the SNP reveal ?

    About 2pm. Sky is streaming it live at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Auq9mYxFEE
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    edited March 2023
    Unpopular said:

    Unpopular said:

    FPT

    MikeL said:

    Betfair suggesting result has not leaked.

    Bounced around a bit just before 1pm but now settled at:

    Yousaf 1.34
    Forbes 3.45

    An extremely reliable source has told me the result of SNP leadership contest and the winner is


    I was waiting until the leader was announced before congratulating Sir Keir Starmer on winning the SNP Leadership Election. I'm going to have to find a new joke... Oh wait, I found one, it's the new leader of the SNP!

    Edit: That felt really harsh, actually. If I'd had a vote it would have gone to Humza (he can't be that bad!), though some of Forbes' ideas do intrigue me and I think she'd be a safe pair of hands - can't get past the gay (and other) stuff though.
    Wait a goddam minute, I thought Forbes was the favoured candidate of New New Labour?
    I guess the great PB tradition of X or Y are both bad for the EssEnnPee is alive and well (won't bother with the laughable concept of Z Regan).
    To be fair, based on the splits that have emerged I doubt either will be able to hold together the SNP's electoral coalition in the same way Sturgeon did. Forbes will turn off progressives, but her criticism of the independence movement having stagnated does hold enough water to resonate.

    It is possible that either could surprise on the upside though, a poster a while back made the comment that people expressed similar sentiments when Sturgeon replaced Salmond. Additionally, the stickiness of the SNP vote could save the new leader. If you're of the independence persuasion, the SNP is probably still your best vehicle and so it'll be relatively easy to just sit back and cast your ballot for the SNP whenever required. Independence supporters of all political stripes have been doing it for almost a decade now.
    I suspect this is why Forbes has the best chance, because she is the most impressive presentationally. Her big issue will be surviving the initial chaos that will greet her election - there will be a LOT of noise, from progressives, from the media , from the greens, from internal voices - that will be very difficult to deal with in the short term.
  • Pulpstar said:

    What time is the SNP reveal ?

    Live on Sky at 2.00pm
  • ohnotnow said:

    Pulpstar said:

    What time is the SNP reveal ?

    About 2pm. Sky is streaming it live at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Auq9mYxFEE
    Also on BBC
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited March 2023
    Just seen @HumzaYousaf with a massive smile on his face

    He said not to read anything into that

    🤔


    https://twitter.com/GlennBBC/status/1640333424811548672?s=20
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,195
    Quick £30 on Useless at 1.3 for me. Looks the obvious result tbh
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    TOPPING said:

    Unpopular said:

    FPT

    MikeL said:

    Betfair suggesting result has not leaked.

    Bounced around a bit just before 1pm but now settled at:

    Yousaf 1.34
    Forbes 3.45

    An extremely reliable source has told me the result of SNP leadership contest and the winner is


    I was waiting until the leader was announced before congratulating Sir Keir Starmer on winning the SNP Leadership Election. I'm going to have to find a new joke... Oh wait, I found one, it's the new leader of the SNP!

    Edit: That felt really harsh, actually. If I'd had a vote it would have gone to Humza (he can't be that bad!), though some of Forbes' ideas do intrigue me and I think she'd be a safe pair of hands - can't get past the gay (and other) stuff though.
    Wait a goddam minute, I thought Forbes was the favoured candidate of New New Labour?
    I guess the great PB tradition of X or Y are both bad for the EssEnnPee is alive and well (won't bother with the laughable concept of Z Regan).
    Speaking for Labour, and setting aside the independence question (on which I'm neutral), I don't think we care who wins. The key thing is that Sturgeon has gone. She was a formidable opponent, and her departure improves Labour's chances of making progress in Scotland, I think.
    Yes I think that's right. She has fucked the independence movement, largely it seems because there is not the strength of feeling for independence which would have sustained her continued effort.

    And as far as you are concerned, there is unlikely to be posters of SKS in the pocket of Forbes/Hamza because like me, 99% of people wouldn't recognise either if they were standing in front of them.
    Whilst that's true now, there's still plenty of time before the election.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    Driver said:

    TOPPING said:

    Unpopular said:

    FPT

    MikeL said:

    Betfair suggesting result has not leaked.

    Bounced around a bit just before 1pm but now settled at:

    Yousaf 1.34
    Forbes 3.45

    An extremely reliable source has told me the result of SNP leadership contest and the winner is


    I was waiting until the leader was announced before congratulating Sir Keir Starmer on winning the SNP Leadership Election. I'm going to have to find a new joke... Oh wait, I found one, it's the new leader of the SNP!

    Edit: That felt really harsh, actually. If I'd had a vote it would have gone to Humza (he can't be that bad!), though some of Forbes' ideas do intrigue me and I think she'd be a safe pair of hands - can't get past the gay (and other) stuff though.
    Wait a goddam minute, I thought Forbes was the favoured candidate of New New Labour?
    I guess the great PB tradition of X or Y are both bad for the EssEnnPee is alive and well (won't bother with the laughable concept of Z Regan).
    Speaking for Labour, and setting aside the independence question (on which I'm neutral), I don't think we care who wins. The key thing is that Sturgeon has gone. She was a formidable opponent, and her departure improves Labour's chances of making progress in Scotland, I think.
    Yes I think that's right. She has fucked the independence movement, largely it seems because there is not the strength of feeling for independence which would have sustained her continued effort.

    And as far as you are concerned, there is unlikely to be posters of SKS in the pocket of Forbes/Hamza because like me, 99% of people wouldn't recognise either if they were standing in front of them.
    Whilst that's true now, there's still plenty of time before the election.
    Maybe.

    People were only just getting used to the grumpy git at PMQs asking questions about Scotland like nothing so much as Pte Frazer off the telly's Dad's Army.

    Whatever his name is/was.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,978
    Unpopular said:

    Unpopular said:

    FPT

    MikeL said:

    Betfair suggesting result has not leaked.

    Bounced around a bit just before 1pm but now settled at:

    Yousaf 1.34
    Forbes 3.45

    An extremely reliable source has told me the result of SNP leadership contest and the winner is


    I was waiting until the leader was announced before congratulating Sir Keir Starmer on winning the SNP Leadership Election. I'm going to have to find a new joke... Oh wait, I found one, it's the new leader of the SNP!

    Edit: That felt really harsh, actually. If I'd had a vote it would have gone to Humza (he can't be that bad!), though some of Forbes' ideas do intrigue me and I think she'd be a safe pair of hands - can't get past the gay (and other) stuff though.
    Wait a goddam minute, I thought Forbes was the favoured candidate of New New Labour?
    I guess the great PB tradition of X or Y are both bad for the EssEnnPee is alive and well (won't bother with the laughable concept of Z Regan).
    To be fair, based on the splits that have emerged I doubt either will be able to hold together the SNP's electoral coalition in the same way Sturgeon did. Forbes will turn off progressives, but her criticism of the independence movement having stagnated does hold enough water to resonate.

    It is possible that either could surprise on the upside though, a poster a while back made the comment that people expressed similar sentiments when Sturgeon replaced Salmond. Additionally, the stickiness of the SNP vote could save the new leader. If you're of the independence persuasion, the SNP is probably still your best vehicle and so it'll be relatively easy to just sit back and cast your ballot for the SNP whenever required. Independence supporters of all political stripes have been doing it for almost a decade now.
    The first proper polling after the accession of a new leader should be instructive. Fwiw I don't think the policy differences between Forbes & Yousaf are really resonating with the voting public just now, eg


  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,094
    edited March 2023
    I didn't do a backstage analysis of the SNP leadership election because there wasn't enough info and I couldn't think of an informed pro-Hamza debater on PB (there's no point in doing point-counterpoint if you can't find a counterpoint). Instead I will limit myself to these two points:

    As OGH will testify (and mentioned in TPP?), there is an example of a by-election when Labour was well in the lead a few minutes before declaration in the betting, but the Libs won

    I will laugh like a drain if Regan wins
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    edited March 2023
    The thing about Boris is that despite what he told the Privileges Committee about himself he is not that stupid. In 2016 he didn't run for leader because he knew he wouldn't win, so he bided his time.

    In 2022 he had good reason to be very confident that he would have won against Rishi, so the question was why did he choose not to return in triumph as Leader at that point?

    While an opportunity to return could have emerged later - the May elections will probably still be brutal - his own words and actions were likely to return to cause him trouble, and turning things around would be hard, plus a new leader has a chance to bed in, so he almost certainly decided at that point that he did not want to be leader at the next GE. He may have changed his mind about that as time went on, but I think absent a collapse in Tory support he could pin at Rishi's door he accepted at that point he was not getting back this side of a GE.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,559
    edited March 2023
    viewcode said:

    I didn't do a backstage analysis of the SNP leadership election because there wasn't enough info and I couldn't think of an informed pro-Hamza debater on PB (there's no point in doing point-counterpoint if you can't find a counterpoint). Instead I will limit myself to these two points:

    As OGH will testify (and mentioned in TPP?), there is an example of a by-election when labour was well in the lead a few minutes before declaration in the betton, but the Libs won

    I will laugh like a drain if Regan wins

    Dunfermline by-election, 2006. Seems like 5 minutes ago.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    Unpopular said:

    Unpopular said:

    FPT

    MikeL said:

    Betfair suggesting result has not leaked.

    Bounced around a bit just before 1pm but now settled at:

    Yousaf 1.34
    Forbes 3.45

    An extremely reliable source has told me the result of SNP leadership contest and the winner is


    I was waiting until the leader was announced before congratulating Sir Keir Starmer on winning the SNP Leadership Election. I'm going to have to find a new joke... Oh wait, I found one, it's the new leader of the SNP!

    Edit: That felt really harsh, actually. If I'd had a vote it would have gone to Humza (he can't be that bad!), though some of Forbes' ideas do intrigue me and I think she'd be a safe pair of hands - can't get past the gay (and other) stuff though.
    Wait a goddam minute, I thought Forbes was the favoured candidate of New New Labour?
    I guess the great PB tradition of X or Y are both bad for the EssEnnPee is alive and well (won't bother with the laughable concept of Z Regan).
    To be fair, based on the splits that have emerged I doubt either will be able to hold together the SNP's electoral coalition in the same way Sturgeon did. Forbes will turn off progressives, but her criticism of the independence movement having stagnated does hold enough water to resonate.

    It is possible that either could surprise on the upside though, a poster a while back made the comment that people expressed similar sentiments when Sturgeon replaced Salmond. Additionally, the stickiness of the SNP vote could save the new leader. If you're of the independence persuasion, the SNP is probably still your best vehicle and so it'll be relatively easy to just sit back and cast your ballot for the SNP whenever required. Independence supporters of all political stripes have been doing it for almost a decade now.
    The first proper polling after the accession of a new leader should be instructive. Fwiw I don't think the policy differences between Forbes & Yousaf are really resonating with the voting public just now, eg


    Consistent stuff. Some of the Forbes talk from MSPs was pretty strong, more so than might be expected toward a colleague they were happy to have weeks ago, so if she were to win how well they change tune would be key I guess.

    I've staked my reputation as a Scottish expert on Humza though.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,094
    Andy_JS said:

    viewcode said:

    I didn't do a backstage analysis of the SNP leadership election because there wasn't enough info and I couldn't think of an informed pro-Hamza debater on PB (there's no point in doing point-counterpoint if you can't find a counterpoint). Instead I will limit myself to these two points:

    As OGH will testify (and mentioned in TPP?), there is an example of a by-election when labour was well in the lead a few minutes before declaration in the betton, but the Libs won

    I will laugh like a drain if Regan wins

    Dunfermline by-election, 2006. Seems like 5 minutes ago.
    Reliable as ever, sir (hat-tip)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    I hope Wings is doing a livestream to explode in fury about the 'fix' when the results are announced.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,784
    kinabalu said:

    Just watched episode 1 of season 4 of Succession.

    I'm going to miss this show.

    Still finishing off season 3, no spoilers please!
    I am SO far off the pace - just started Ozark.
    Drop everything and watch Succession! I can't recommend it highly enough and I think you will love it.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,559
    Are they using preferential voting for this contest with 3 candidates
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,577
    Some background listening to the SNP result: Elbow - The Fix....

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-ITMRHJnaJY&ab_channel=jayyayyay
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749
    viewcode said:

    I didn't do a backstage analysis of the SNP leadership election because there wasn't enough info and I couldn't think of an informed pro-Hamza debater on PB ...

    I felt a little out of touch because I couldn't remember the candidates' names, but at least I could remember it wasn't Hamza.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    Sickening to think the GOP still has it defenders.

    A jail in Washington has become the latest focal point of the US culture wars after a congressional delegation led by the Republican extremist Marjorie Taylor Greene visited defendants charged in 2021’s deadly January 6 insurrection at the US Capitol and championed them as “political prisoners”

    Greene high-fived the detainees and shook their hands, according to the Associated Press. As the tour group was leaving, the defendants chanted “Let’s go Brandon!”, an offensive phrase denigrating Democratic president Joe Biden.

    Greene was joined by fellow far-right Republican members of the House oversight committee during a two-hour tour of the DC jail on Friday. The group included extremist Colorado congresswoman Lauren Boebert, who embraced Micki Witthoeft, the mother of Ashli Babbitt, the woman shot dead by police as she participated in the Capitol riot, NBC News reported.


    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/mar/27/marjorie-taylor-greene-led-delegation-to-visit-capitol-attack-defendants-in-jail

    If the main parties cannot even agree that mobs storming the legislature is a bad thing then the democracy is in a rough old place.

    Maybe they could contemplate a bit of the old loyal opposition approach.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,416

    Sickening to think the GOP still has it defenders.

    A jail in Washington has become the latest focal point of the US culture wars after a congressional delegation led by the Republican extremist Marjorie Taylor Greene visited defendants charged in 2021’s deadly January 6 insurrection at the US Capitol and championed them as “political prisoners”

    Greene high-fived the detainees and shook their hands, according to the Associated Press. As the tour group was leaving, the defendants chanted “Let’s go Brandon!”, an offensive phrase denigrating Democratic president Joe Biden.

    Greene was joined by fellow far-right Republican members of the House oversight committee during a two-hour tour of the DC jail on Friday. The group included extremist Colorado congresswoman Lauren Boebert, who embraced Micki Witthoeft, the mother of Ashli Babbitt, the woman shot dead by police as she participated in the Capitol riot, NBC News reported.


    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/mar/27/marjorie-taylor-greene-led-delegation-to-visit-capitol-attack-defendants-in-jail

    How representative of the GOP are these dingbats though ?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,843
    Will that bairn have started school before we get a result?
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,416
    TOPPING said:

    Driver said:

    TOPPING said:

    Unpopular said:

    FPT

    MikeL said:

    Betfair suggesting result has not leaked.

    Bounced around a bit just before 1pm but now settled at:

    Yousaf 1.34
    Forbes 3.45

    An extremely reliable source has told me the result of SNP leadership contest and the winner is


    I was waiting until the leader was announced before congratulating Sir Keir Starmer on winning the SNP Leadership Election. I'm going to have to find a new joke... Oh wait, I found one, it's the new leader of the SNP!

    Edit: That felt really harsh, actually. If I'd had a vote it would have gone to Humza (he can't be that bad!), though some of Forbes' ideas do intrigue me and I think she'd be a safe pair of hands - can't get past the gay (and other) stuff though.
    Wait a goddam minute, I thought Forbes was the favoured candidate of New New Labour?
    I guess the great PB tradition of X or Y are both bad for the EssEnnPee is alive and well (won't bother with the laughable concept of Z Regan).
    Speaking for Labour, and setting aside the independence question (on which I'm neutral), I don't think we care who wins. The key thing is that Sturgeon has gone. She was a formidable opponent, and her departure improves Labour's chances of making progress in Scotland, I think.
    Yes I think that's right. She has fucked the independence movement, largely it seems because there is not the strength of feeling for independence which would have sustained her continued effort.

    And as far as you are concerned, there is unlikely to be posters of SKS in the pocket of Forbes/Hamza because like me, 99% of people wouldn't recognise either if they were standing in front of them.
    Whilst that's true now, there's still plenty of time before the election.
    Maybe.

    People were only just getting used to the grumpy git at PMQs asking questions about Scotland like nothing so much as Pte Frazer off the telly's Dad's Army.

    Whatever his name is/was.
    The great Scottish actor, John Laurie, who was exactly like that in real life.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,038
    Here comes the result of the SNP leadership election
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    Taz said:

    Sickening to think the GOP still has it defenders.

    A jail in Washington has become the latest focal point of the US culture wars after a congressional delegation led by the Republican extremist Marjorie Taylor Greene visited defendants charged in 2021’s deadly January 6 insurrection at the US Capitol and championed them as “political prisoners”

    Greene high-fived the detainees and shook their hands, according to the Associated Press. As the tour group was leaving, the defendants chanted “Let’s go Brandon!”, an offensive phrase denigrating Democratic president Joe Biden.

    Greene was joined by fellow far-right Republican members of the House oversight committee during a two-hour tour of the DC jail on Friday. The group included extremist Colorado congresswoman Lauren Boebert, who embraced Micki Witthoeft, the mother of Ashli Babbitt, the woman shot dead by police as she participated in the Capitol riot, NBC News reported.


    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/mar/27/marjorie-taylor-greene-led-delegation-to-visit-capitol-attack-defendants-in-jail

    How representative of the GOP are these dingbats though ?
    They have the support of the likely GOP presidential candidate, and almost all of the rest will row in behind that candidate, nor will they face any real consequences for giving succour for criminal mobs.

    So they are representative enough.

    Saying 'X does not represent Y' doesn't hold much water when they still walk hand in hand.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,300
    Cicero said:

    FPT

    The battle between Spring and Winter in Tallinn is in full spate, with yesterday´s cool mist being replaced with a blizzard of wet snow. The weather in Kyiv is warmer and wetter, Spring is coming, uncertainly perhaps, but inevitably. When the season of mud is over then, equally inevitably, the Ukrainian counter-offensive will follow. The ZSU are preparing their logistics methodically and the steady flow of NATO standard equipment is equipping more and more brigades and increasingly divisions. Meanwhile Russia is forced to delve ever deeper into its stores for ever less effective equipment. The failure of the Russian offensive is not total, for it has certainly damaged the offensive capability of the Ukrainians in the Bakhmut sector, but the public disassociation of Wagner from Bakhmut and the announcement of more missions in central Africa reflects the fact the the Russian activity in the area is falling. It is falling because, whatever the costs to Ukraine, the costs to Russia were at least four times higher. The Russians know the counter-offensive is coming, but they do not know where or when, and for the time being, given the weather, neither do the Ukrainians. The costs of the battle of Bakhmut were increasing the risk of a Ukrainian breach of the line leading to a rout of Russian forces. The Russians broke off the battle to reduce these risks.

    Nevertheless the ZSU remains cautious. When the counter-attack comes it needs to be decisive, and thus the high command prefers to wait until they have the kit and the newly trained personnel back on the line. Rumours of combined arms exercises in Poland may not be wide of the mark, and the reinforcement of the air force could not come at a better time.

    In Tallinn the new coalition should be announced shortly and the new government is committed, no less than the old, to the support of Ukraine. Yet the mood has changed slightly. The Estonians are now telegraphing concern about the situation in Russia. The expectation is that a successful Ukrainian counter-offensive will cause major changes in the Kremlin, and although the Estonians are clearly in favour of this, there is also the recognition that NATO, and in particular the front line states, will need to be prepared for possible upheaval in Russia.

    As the spring storms continue, we watch for the defeat of Russia like we watch for the end of Winter... we are resigned to the bad weather, but still we hope for better days ahead.

    What happened to the Latvian SS Homophobes, by the way?

    Asking on behalf of @tim, late of this parish
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,595
    kle4 said:

    Sickening to think the GOP still has it defenders.

    A jail in Washington has become the latest focal point of the US culture wars after a congressional delegation led by the Republican extremist Marjorie Taylor Greene visited defendants charged in 2021’s deadly January 6 insurrection at the US Capitol and championed them as “political prisoners”

    Greene high-fived the detainees and shook their hands, according to the Associated Press. As the tour group was leaving, the defendants chanted “Let’s go Brandon!”, an offensive phrase denigrating Democratic president Joe Biden.

    Greene was joined by fellow far-right Republican members of the House oversight committee during a two-hour tour of the DC jail on Friday. The group included extremist Colorado congresswoman Lauren Boebert, who embraced Micki Witthoeft, the mother of Ashli Babbitt, the woman shot dead by police as she participated in the Capitol riot, NBC News reported.


    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/mar/27/marjorie-taylor-greene-led-delegation-to-visit-capitol-attack-defendants-in-jail

    If the main parties cannot even agree that mobs storming the legislature is a bad thing then the democracy is in a rough old place.

    Maybe they could contemplate a bit of the old loyal opposition approach.
    Loyal to...what? They think they *are* the loyal ones.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,978

    kinabalu said:

    Just watched episode 1 of season 4 of Succession.

    I'm going to miss this show.

    Still finishing off season 3, no spoilers please!
    I am SO far off the pace - just started Ozark.
    Drop everything and watch Succession! I can't recommend it highly enough and I think you will love it.
    Surpised there are no Succession cracks about the SNP leadership eklection..

    Humza is Kendall Roy, Kate is Shiv and Eck lives and breathes Logan..

    If Ash wasn't so dim she could be Shiv, but rather the airhead half brother that wants to go into politics I think.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,340
    Yousaf looks happy. But could be faking it
  • Taz said:

    TOPPING said:

    Driver said:

    TOPPING said:

    Unpopular said:

    FPT

    MikeL said:

    Betfair suggesting result has not leaked.

    Bounced around a bit just before 1pm but now settled at:

    Yousaf 1.34
    Forbes 3.45

    An extremely reliable source has told me the result of SNP leadership contest and the winner is


    I was waiting until the leader was announced before congratulating Sir Keir Starmer on winning the SNP Leadership Election. I'm going to have to find a new joke... Oh wait, I found one, it's the new leader of the SNP!

    Edit: That felt really harsh, actually. If I'd had a vote it would have gone to Humza (he can't be that bad!), though some of Forbes' ideas do intrigue me and I think she'd be a safe pair of hands - can't get past the gay (and other) stuff though.
    Wait a goddam minute, I thought Forbes was the favoured candidate of New New Labour?
    I guess the great PB tradition of X or Y are both bad for the EssEnnPee is alive and well (won't bother with the laughable concept of Z Regan).
    Speaking for Labour, and setting aside the independence question (on which I'm neutral), I don't think we care who wins. The key thing is that Sturgeon has gone. She was a formidable opponent, and her departure improves Labour's chances of making progress in Scotland, I think.
    Yes I think that's right. She has fucked the independence movement, largely it seems because there is not the strength of feeling for independence which would have sustained her continued effort.

    And as far as you are concerned, there is unlikely to be posters of SKS in the pocket of Forbes/Hamza because like me, 99% of people wouldn't recognise either if they were standing in front of them.
    Whilst that's true now, there's still plenty of time before the election.
    Maybe.

    People were only just getting used to the grumpy git at PMQs asking questions about Scotland like nothing so much as Pte Frazer off the telly's Dad's Army.

    Whatever his name is/was.
    The great Scottish actor, John Laurie, who was exactly like that in real life.
    Indiana Jones and The Temple of We're Doomed.


  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,340
    wait. Forbes looks happier
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,706
    Turnout 70%
  • Leon said:

    Yousaf looks happy. But could be faking it

    Might also be happy not to have won... but, yes, body language says Yousaf.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,038
    1st round

    Forbes 20559
    Yousaf 24336
    Regan 5599
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    mwadams said:

    kle4 said:

    Sickening to think the GOP still has it defenders.

    A jail in Washington has become the latest focal point of the US culture wars after a congressional delegation led by the Republican extremist Marjorie Taylor Greene visited defendants charged in 2021’s deadly January 6 insurrection at the US Capitol and championed them as “political prisoners”

    Greene high-fived the detainees and shook their hands, according to the Associated Press. As the tour group was leaving, the defendants chanted “Let’s go Brandon!”, an offensive phrase denigrating Democratic president Joe Biden.

    Greene was joined by fellow far-right Republican members of the House oversight committee during a two-hour tour of the DC jail on Friday. The group included extremist Colorado congresswoman Lauren Boebert, who embraced Micki Witthoeft, the mother of Ashli Babbitt, the woman shot dead by police as she participated in the Capitol riot, NBC News reported.


    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/mar/27/marjorie-taylor-greene-led-delegation-to-visit-capitol-attack-defendants-in-jail

    If the main parties cannot even agree that mobs storming the legislature is a bad thing then the democracy is in a rough old place.

    Maybe they could contemplate a bit of the old loyal opposition approach.
    Loyal to...what? They think they *are* the loyal ones.
    Loyal to a shared understanding of the democratic system. They used to be very good at that. Now they don't even really pretend.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,978
    Humza..
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,559
    Yousaf wins by 52.1 to 47.9%.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    SNP 😀😀😀
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    Starmer not announced winner of SNP leadership election.

    SKS fans please explain.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,038
    edited March 2023
    Final round

    Forbes 23890
    Yousaf 26032

    So hapless Yousaf wins 53% to 47% and the Sturgeon SNP establishment celebrates victory for their candidate
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,675
    Wowsa!!
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,669
    USELESS
  • LOLOL

    Daily Mail parent company invokes Human Rights Act to stop naming of journalists

    Lawyers working for Associated Newspapers successfully argue there is no justification for naming 73 journalists and executives

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2023/mar/27/daily-mail-parent-company-invokes-human-rights-act-to-stop-naming-of-journalists
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,340
    A hahahah

    Fucking catastrophe for the SNP
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,660
    The cursed ratio.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,813
    Well that’s a result that will satisfy no-one.

    Apart from Starmer..
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    Will the losers have to kneel and kiss the Leader's ring, or will it be restricted to forced grins and stock words about offering all support and a need for unity?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,706
    HYUFD said:

    Final round

    Forbes 23890
    Yousaf 26032

    So hapless Yousaf wins 53% to 47%

    52-48 actually!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,577
    Andy_JS said:

    Yousaf wins by 52.1 to 47.9%.

    Close enough for plenty of whining about a fix.

    Probably with good cause.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,293
    Wings meltdown here we come
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,675
    edited March 2023
    That's not optimal for the SNP. The conspiracies after this...
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,706
    Only 50,000 voted - pretty poor.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,373
    Leon said:

    A hahahah

    Fucking catastrophe for the SNP

    You could have prepared that statement earlier for either candidate.
  • HYUFD said:

    Final round

    Forbes 23890
    Yousaf 26032

    So hapless Yousaf wins 53% to 47% and the Sturgeon SNP establishment ensures victory for their candidate

    Thought the SNP had more members.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    Chris said:

    viewcode said:

    I didn't do a backstage analysis of the SNP leadership election because there wasn't enough info and I couldn't think of an informed pro-Hamza debater on PB ...

    I felt a little out of touch because I couldn't remember the candidates' names, but at least I could remember it wasn't Hamza.
    Last week I was dealing with a customer called Hunza, and it was not easy to spell it right...
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963
    It's always 52-48...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    Well that’s a result that will satisfy no-one.

    Apart from Starmer..

    But it's not the most chaotic result possible - the winner has the majority support of the elected representatives after all, rather than a close win for someone who was (seemingly) disliked by most of them.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,978
    Leon said:

    A hahahah

    Fucking catastrophe for the SNP

    I would hope as PB 'may surprise on the upside' correspondent you might have a more developed commentary.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,577
    MikeL said:

    Only 50,000 voted - pretty poor.

    But how many are STILL members?
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 883
    Am I right in thinking that Survation poll a few weeks ago nailed it?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,586
    Ha, SNP implosion in 3, 2, 1…
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,195
    Excellent showing by Forbes against the presumptive big favourite.
This discussion has been closed.