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SNP leadership – latest betting – politicalbetting.com

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  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,730

    Do have to howl with laughter at the HS2 fiasco. What they have just announced:

    1 OOC to Euston delayed, Heartlands delta to Handsacre (WCML) delayed
    2 Which leaves Birmingham Curzon Street to London OOC as the initial phase
    3 OOC Interchange isn't designed to operate as a terminus, either from a trains or passenger perspective. As its already under construction it will need to be redesigned
    4 The Elizabeth line cannot cope with HS2 traffic dumped onto it, which will mean a restriction on the number of HS2 trains run
    5 Infrastructure was designed for 240mph, already announced a max speed of 225mph, but energy costs soar exponentially at the top end. With the need to cap capacity watch them opt initially for a slower train. Think 140mph EMUs like on HS1

    A line from Birmingham No Connection to London Do Not Alight Here. With a small number of services trundling 100mph slower than the vastly over-specced infrastructure can cope with.

    Global Britain at its finest. Bravo, Tories, Bravo.

    It is so bad there needs to be a public inquiry and maybe prosecutions. But I do not believe Labour have the cullions to do that, they are knee deep in this river of shit, as well

    And WTAF are they now going to do with Euston? They’ve chopped down all the trees and dug up half of NW1 and there is an enormous big hole in the ground waiting for a railway which will, now, never arrive

    What do they do with it? Sell it all off for flats? Leave it to rot?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,394

    ...

    That is HYUFD level straw clutching. At the next GE the SNP are going to smash Starmer Labour out of the park.
    Well, at least we know it’s going to be “Starmer Labour”!

    Who will be leading the SNP?

    On a more serious note, in Scotland it’s Sarwar Labour.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,786

    Funny, but not that crazy.

    Braverman's announcement reminds us all that there is still a small boat problem. And since her solution doesn't involve sharks with laser beams being released in the Channel, it's insufficiently red meat for the hardcore ten percent who are into that sort of thing.
    The small boats are good for the Cons because it puts Migration & Strong Borders on the political agenda and this is a strong issue for the Right electorally.

    The small boats are bad for the Cons because they've been long in government and despite the rhetoric are not solving the problem.

    It's a matter of which of these is more true. I'd hope the second one but I'm really not sure.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 12,509

    Hope work on the mega-basement will have finished by then....

    (Last time I stayed in Claridges I was with Terence Stamp, Angelica Huston and Lauren Becall. Just to annoy malcy....)
    That's an impressive foursome. Didn't know Claridges put up with that sort of thing?
  • Driver said:

    Given that it's exactly the same failures as Crossrail and Thameslink 2000, it's not a party political problem.
    Its both. Whilst we have proven over decades that this country is shit at infrastructure projects, there has to be blame for the people in office for the specifics. Every project has its own specific fuckwittery on top of the general incompetence and HS2 has it in spades. Since the original 2009 proposal we have seen an explosion in costs as all kinds of absurd factors are loaded onto the contractors. Hard to look past the DfT and the Treasury and the Tory MPs who have relentlessly campaigned against this.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,394
    HYUFD said:

    Yousaf 31%, Forbes 25%, Regan 11% with SNP members. So Regan's preferences still key as to whether the SNP get Liz Forbes or Rishi Yousaf
    https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2023/03/win-snp-leadership-election
    That’s a week old poll. Perhaps SNP members pay attention to what voters think…
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,730
    kinabalu said:

    The small boats are good for the Cons because it puts Migration & Strong Borders on the political agenda and this is a strong issue for the Right electorally.

    The small boats are bad for the Cons because they've been long in government and despite the rhetoric are not solving the problem.

    It's a matter of which of these is more true. I'd hope the second one but I'm really not sure.
    it’s the second. I wish they had the backbone to actually sort the boats, but they don’t. It’s the second, and their spineless mendacity will soon be exposed. No one believes them. They are FUCKED
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,786
    Driver said:

    Given that it's exactly the same failures as Crossrail and Thameslink 2000, it's not a party political problem.
    And Heathrow.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    HYUFD said:

    Yes, bring back the Workhouse, as a true classical Liberal you no doubt would have approved, it was after all the Whigs in the 19th century who brought in the workhouses to replace the previous system of poor relief not the Tories.

    In reality those on minimum wage are also getting a 10% rise along with those on benefits and the state pension ie the poorest in society and even then only in line with inflation
    The people in the workhouse didn't have the vote.

    Their modern successors do. And they are old enough to vote Tory.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,381

    ...

    That is HYUFD level straw clutching. At the next GE the SNP are going to smash Starmer Labour out of the park.
    All this hatred towards SKS because he's not dumb enough to say he'll immediately overturn Brexit once in No10 and give the Tories a lifeline.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,529
    kjh said:

    That's an impressive foursome. Didn't know Claridges put up with that sort of thing?
    Only for me...
  • Leon said:

    It is so bad there needs to be a public inquiry and maybe prosecutions. But I do not believe Labour have the cullions to do that, they are knee deep in this river of shit, as well

    And WTAF are they now going to do with Euston? They’ve chopped down all the trees and dug up half of NW1 and there is an enormous big hole in the ground waiting for a railway which will, now, never arrive

    What do they do with it? Sell it all off for flats? Leave it to rot?
    Rot. London had bomb sites for decades after the war awaiting redevelopment. That ugly scar through Camden will now sit there as protected development land. Can't be made pretty as £cost. Can't be completed as £cost. Can't be sold off because one say there will be lemon-soaked paper napkins.

    Sorry Leon, your government have catastrofucked your local environment and now expect you vote for them in thanks.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,249

    Well, at least we know it’s going to be “Starmer Labour”!

    Who will be leading the SNP?

    On a more serious note, in Scotland it’s Sarwar Labour.
    Hang on a minute. You started it, "Starmer has positive approval among 2019 SNP voters".
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,730
    kinabalu said:

    And Heathrow.
    It’s much worse than any of those. This is epochal, and it affects all of the country
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Members are notoriously difficult to poll, the nearest proxy is voters:

    The race is too close to call between Yousaf and Forbes when looking at the views of SNP voters from the last Scottish Parliament election.

    33% say that Humza Yousaf would make the best First Minister while 32% say the same of Kate Forbes. Ash Regan takes third place with 10%.


    https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1633778782917087238?s=20

    As a hypothesis, given SNP voters are more pro Humza than gen pop, it’s possible members are more pro-Humzah too - especially given the weight of the SNP machine being thrown behind him.

    Edit - a poll a week ago suggests this is the case:

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/23362228.first-poll-snp-members-puts-yousaf-narrowly-ahead-forbes/
    I'm still suspicious about that, as the sample can't be acCurate. Cui bono?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,786
    Stocky said:

    And they will largely break for Forbes??
    Need to break heavily to get her over the line.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,339
    Leon said:

    It is so bad there needs to be a public inquiry and maybe prosecutions. But I do not believe Labour have the cullions to do that, they are knee deep in this river of shit, as well

    And WTAF are they now going to do with Euston? They’ve chopped down all the trees and dug up half of NW1 and there is an enormous big hole in the ground waiting for a railway which will, now, never arrive

    What do they do with it? Sell it all off for flats? Leave it to rot?
    Presumably they can't do anything else with the land, in case the missing link gets built eventually. Maybe a nice car wash or something.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    That’s a week old poll. Perhaps SNP members pay attention to what voters think…
    ... and of uncertain reliability.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,794

    Its both. Whilst we have proven over decades that this country is shit at infrastructure projects, there has to be blame for the people in office for the specifics. Every project has its own specific fuckwittery on top of the general incompetence and HS2 has it in spades. Since the original 2009 proposal we have seen an explosion in costs as all kinds of absurd factors are loaded onto the contractors. Hard to look past the DfT and the Treasury and the Tory MPs who have relentlessly campaigned against this.
    We used to be able to infrastructure just fine.....then we allowed civil servants to get involved and then it all went to shit because they can't resist meddling frankly is what I put it down to.....anecdote from being involved in more than one civil service inspired project where the original spec bid on was constantly tampered with even down to wanting changes on the day we were due to making a milestone release. We always got the impression it was down to people using the projects as various people using it as a proxy for internal manoeuvres rather than having any rational reason for the changes
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,933

    Hope work on the mega-basement will have finished by then....

    (Last time I stayed in Claridges I was with Terence Stamp, Angelica Huston and Lauren Becall. Just to annoy malcy....)
    At the price I'd have thought you'd have a room to yourself at the very least.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,205

    Its both. Whilst we have proven over decades that this country is shit at infrastructure projects, there has to be blame for the people in office for the specifics. Every project has its own specific fuckwittery on top of the general incompetence and HS2 has it in spades. Since the original 2009 proposal we have seen an explosion in costs as all kinds of absurd factors are loaded onto the contractors. Hard to look past the DfT and the Treasury and the Tory MPs who have relentlessly campaigned against this.
    To be fair most countries are shit at infrastructure. Look at the Berlin Airport, or the too big Spanish trains.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,933

    Is it? Without going all blue dress, gold dress, it sounded to me like the chap in the video had an extra syllable, more like "Mc gay again" said very quickly.
    My friend's pronunciation. Not the bloke in the video.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,730
    edited March 2023

    Rot. London had bomb sites for decades after the war awaiting redevelopment. That ugly scar through Camden will now sit there as protected development land. Can't be made pretty as £cost. Can't be completed as £cost. Can't be sold off because one say there will be lemon-soaked paper napkins.

    Sorry Leon, your government have catastrofucked your local environment and now expect you vote for them in thanks.
    Lol

    Luckily it’s not that close to me, but if I was down near Somers Town or whatever, I’d be starting a riot

    This is also Starmer’s constituency. Presumably he will say something shortly, and have decisions to make when PM. His voters will not be happy if half of his constituency is literally a big gaping hole
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,629

    Do have to howl with laughter at the HS2 fiasco. What they have just announced:

    1 OOC to Euston delayed, Heartlands delta to Handsacre (WCML) delayed
    2 Which leaves Birmingham Curzon Street to London OOC as the initial phase
    3 OOC Interchange isn't designed to operate as a terminus, either from a trains or passenger perspective. As its already under construction it will need to be redesigned
    4 The Elizabeth line cannot cope with HS2 traffic dumped onto it, which will mean a restriction on the number of HS2 trains run
    5 Infrastructure was designed for 240mph, already announced a max speed of 225mph, but energy costs soar exponentially at the top end. With the need to cap capacity watch them opt initially for a slower train. Think 140mph EMUs like on HS1

    A line from Birmingham No Connection to London Do Not Alight Here. With a small number of services trundling 100mph slower than the vastly over-specced infrastructure can cope with.

    Global Britain at its finest. Bravo, Tories, Bravo.

    "Elizabeth line could be be extended into Essex and Kent under ambitious new proposals"

    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/travel/news/elizabeth-line-could-be-be-extended-into-essex-and-kent-under-ambitious-new-proposals/ar-AA18moYa?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=eb31db9121b34be99f472bdc17cdf715&ei=18
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,205

    Presumably they can't do anything else with the land, in case the missing link gets built eventually. Maybe a nice car wash or something.
    A giant transgender clinic and surgical centre would be another option.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,339
    Foxy said:

    To be fair most countries are shit at infrastructure. Look at the Berlin Airport, or the too big Spanish trains.
    Also, this stuff is harder than it looks (most things are).

    But the quibbling and cheese-paring, which always costs more in the end... That's a very British disease.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,181
    Pagan2 said:

    It is a solution that is worse that the problem tbh. The politicians have been told often enough that you put everyone at risk by weakening encryption however they, and the civil service have their eye on the holy grail....full data on everyone. Whats the betting that important people will get exemptions to have proper encryption
    There is no solution.

    What we are seeing is clash of the legalistic mindset - “all information required must be available to the court at its request” with the laws of mathematics.

    “ Well the laws of Australia prevail in Australia, I can assure you of that. The laws of mathematics are very commendable, but the only law that applies in Australia is the law of Australia,"

    The politicians I have spoken to on this over the years simply do not accept that unbreakable end to end encryption is inevitable - this is across parties.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,794

    There is no solution.

    What we are seeing is clash of the legalistic mindset - “all information required must be available to the court at its request” with the laws of mathematics.

    “ Well the laws of Australia prevail in Australia, I can assure you of that. The laws of mathematics are very commendable, but the only law that applies in Australia is the law of Australia,"

    The politicians I have spoken to on this over the years simply do not accept that unbreakable end to end encryption is inevitable - this is across parties.
    Because politicians sadly think anything they don't understand must be easy and assume when people are saying it's not possible they must be lying because its what they would do
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,181

    That type of hotel can play a surprisingly important role in the local community because people rely on the amenities.
    Stayed at a place in Cornwall. From talking to some people it turned out that a condition of building it was offering access to the pool and gun to locals at a reasonable rate. It was the only swimming pool (indoors) for miles.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,314
    ..

    All this hatred towards SKS because he's not dumb enough to say he'll immediately overturn Brexit once in No10 and give the Tories a lifeline.
    Are you saying those people saying SKS is being economical with the actualité over his real EU intentions are correct?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,394
    Carnyx said:

    ... and of uncertain reliability.
    Yep - as I wrote, polls of members - of any party - are jolly difficult.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017
    Foxy said:

    To be fair most countries are shit at infrastructure. Look at the Berlin Airport, or the too big Spanish trains.

    None of the Spanish trains were actually built. The error was in the designs and that was picked up before any manufacturing began.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,394

    Hang on a minute. You started it, "Starmer has positive approval among 2019 SNP voters".
    Against whose SNP?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,653
    edited March 2023

    Hope work on the mega-basement will have finished by then....

    (Last time I stayed in Claridges I was with Terence Stamp, Angelica Huston and Lauren Becall. Just to annoy malcy....)
    Has been completed.

    Recently JohnO and myself had lunch there.

    Last time I stayed in Claridge's it led to a divorce, not mine.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,314
    kinabalu said:

    Need to break heavily to get her over the line.
    Not to mention the 33% dk/would not say.
    Not sure what the standard turnout for party leader elections is. Anyone know what it was for the Trussterfuck?
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,381
    Looking unlikely right now, but imagine we have a hung parliament where the SNP hold the balance of power. Kate Forbes is leader of the SNP, whose economic and social views suggest she would very likely be a Tory voter had she been born south of the border.
    Labour refuses to accede to her demands for indyref2, but Rishi actually approaches Forbes and says he'd agree to if the SNP propped him up.
    Is it possible at all she would say yes and prop the Tories up?
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,381

    ..

    Are you saying those people saying SKS is being economical with the actualité over his real EU intentions are correct?
    I don't think you can overturn Brexit in a single term. It needs to be demonstrably shown it's shit no matter who is running the show.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,537
    Alba getting more unpopular?

    Favourability of Political Parties in Scotland:

    LAB: +10% (+3)
    SNP: -1% (-13)
    LDM: -13% (-1)
    GRN: -17% (-6)
    CON: -34% (+4)
    REF: -34% (=)
    ALBA: -47% (-8)

    Via @RedfieldWilton
    , On 2-5 March,
    Changes w/ 26-27 November 2022.


    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1633532296920719361
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,537

    I don't think you can overturn Brexit in a single term. It needs to be demonstrably shown it's shit no matter who is running the show.
    1st term - alignment
    2nd term - increased agreements
    3rd term - rejoin
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,085

    LEADERSHIP candidates Kate Forbes and Ash Regan both called out “serial hustings attendees” at Wednesday night's event.

    The pair were joined by their other rival Humza Yousaf at Johnstone Town Hall as they bid to win the hearts of SNP members.

    But they were both quick to point out that they recognised a few faces in the room from previous hustings, which sparked some backlash online with members struggling to secure seats at the eight in-person events.


    https://www.thenational.scot/news/23373968.watch-kate-forbes-ash-regan-call-serial-hustings-attendees/

    Guaranteed all the insiders will have multiple tickets
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,205
    kle4 said:

    Alba getting more unpopular?

    Favourability of Political Parties in Scotland:

    LAB: +10% (+3)
    SNP: -1% (-13)
    LDM: -13% (-1)
    GRN: -17% (-6)
    CON: -34% (+4)
    REF: -34% (=)
    ALBA: -47% (-8)

    Via @RedfieldWilton
    , On 2-5 March,
    Changes w/ 26-27 November 2022.


    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1633532296920719361

    Forbes does rather nick their platform.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,730
    Foxy said:

    To be fair most countries are shit at infrastructure. Look at the Berlin Airport, or the too big Spanish trains.
    This is heading for £100bn

    I can’t think of any equivalent calamity at home or abroad. And it is still a fucking great mess

    It was never needed, it was always pointless, we are a small country geographically, we don’t need 250mph trains and if we need more capacity (do we???) build that some other way

    Spend £10bn on the Northern Powerhouse, that DOES make sense

    This government needs to be exterminated, not just defeated. Send them into Hell, for the rest of enduring time
  • Foxy said:

    To be fair most countries are shit at infrastructure. Look at the Berlin Airport, or the too big Spanish trains.
    Berlin airport is open. And is fab. The Spanish trains haven't been built, and will have their design altered. Even the Spanish AVE network which saw completed earthworks and bridges but no tracks has now been completed.

    Here? Even when Labour take office, the CBA for the Euston leg will say don't do it. Without Euston a connection to the WCML makes no sense as OOC can't cope. Its a joke.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,085
    dixiedean said:

    At the price I'd have thought you'd have a room to yourself at the very least.
    Mark, who would want to stay in that ponces dump, Give me a Best Western any day.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,394
    kle4 said:

    Alba getting more unpopular?

    Favourability of Political Parties in Scotland:

    LAB: +10% (+3)
    SNP: -1% (-13)
    LDM: -13% (-1)
    GRN: -17% (-6)
    CON: -34% (+4)
    REF: -34% (=)
    ALBA: -47% (-8)

    Via @RedfieldWilton
    , On 2-5 March,
    Changes w/ 26-27 November 2022.


    https://twitter.com/electpoliticsuk/status/1633532296920719361

    But, but, but….

    @Mexicanpete said:
    ...
    At the next GE the SNP are going to smash Starmer Labour out of the park.
  • Leon said:

    Lol

    Luckily it’s not that close to me, but if I was down near Somers Town or whatever, I’d be starting a riot

    This is also Starmer’s constituency. Presumably he will say something shortly, and have decisions to make when PM. His voters will not be happy if half of his constituency is literally a big gaping hole
    Air rights are worth £lots. How about Starmer privatising the Euston link construction in exchange for allowing the developer to build endless blocks on top of it. Its going to take something like that. Because if you just look at OOC to Euston by itself you can't make the case for building it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,181
    Pagan2 said:

    Because politicians sadly think anything they don't understand must be easy and assume when people are saying it's not possible they must be lying because its what they would do
    More that there is a certain mindset.

    I worked with a lawyer once. Who claimed

    - that since testing can’t cover every possible branch of complex code, that all developers are incompetent
    - Accused me of insolence when I pointed out that a certain problem was actual The Travelling Salesman problem. And hence had no guaranteed perfect solution.

    Essentially he thought that reality should do as it’s told.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,009

    Looking unlikely right now, but imagine we have a hung parliament where the SNP hold the balance of power. Kate Forbes is leader of the SNP, whose economic and social views suggest she would very likely be a Tory voter had she been born south of the border.
    Labour refuses to accede to her demands for indyref2, but Rishi actually approaches Forbes and says he'd agree to if the SNP propped him up.
    Is it possible at all she would say yes and prop the Tories up?

    She might but Forbes is more rightwing than Sunak so she increases the chances of a Labour majority or at least enough seats to just need the LDs for a majority not the SNP. She would likely lose seats to Scottish Labour but gain most of the remaining SCon seats
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,339
    kle4 said:

    1st term - alignment
    2nd term - increased agreements
    3rd term - rejoin
    The other important thing is "run things in a way that rejoin is a plausible option when we're ready to make that decision". Which will be about a decade from here.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,730

    Berlin airport is open. And is fab. The Spanish trains haven't been built, and will have their design altered. Even the Spanish AVE network which saw completed earthworks and bridges but no tracks has now been completed.

    Here? Even when Labour take office, the CBA for the Euston leg will say don't do it. Without Euston a connection to the WCML makes no sense as OOC can't cope. Its a joke.
    What are the chances Starmer kills it off completely?

    He can say they will use the work done to increase present capacity. He can say they will recoup losses by selling land compulsorily purchased. He can say “I will build the Northern Power Line instead” and please his Red Wall

    He can’t say NOTHING because that great big festering hole at Euston is literally his constituency. His office probably faces it
  • Pagan2 said:

    We used to be able to infrastructure just fine.....then we allowed civil servants to get involved and then it all went to shit because they can't resist meddling frankly is what I put it down to.....anecdote from being involved in more than one civil service inspired project where the original spec bid on was constantly tampered with even down to wanting changes on the day we were due to making a milestone release. We always got the impression it was down to people using the projects as various people using it as a proxy for internal manoeuvres rather than having any rational reason for the changes
    We've suffered from fuckwittery for ages. The number of part built ends randomly road schemes which are still randomly ended decades later. Rail upgrades done on the cheap to save money now that cost far more in remedial work later. The shithousery around Heathrow vs Fatwick vs Boris Island where nothing gets built. Road or metro schemes of any description in places like Leeds.

    What makes this one so acutely funny is that now we are part way through the business case for it has *genuinely* changed thanks to Covid. A redesign / rethink is perfectly sensible, but instead we will end up with an unusable stub fit for nothing. All the cost and more besides, none of the benefits,
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560

    I don't think you can overturn Brexit in a single term. It needs to be demonstrably shown it's shit no matter who is running the show.
    Rejoin needs a whole lot more than people thinking the current situation is shit.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,730

    We've suffered from fuckwittery for ages. The number of part built ends randomly road schemes which are still randomly ended decades later. Rail upgrades done on the cheap to save money now that cost far more in remedial work later. The shithousery around Heathrow vs Fatwick vs Boris Island where nothing gets built. Road or metro schemes of any description in places like Leeds.

    What makes this one so acutely funny is that now we are part way through the business case for it has *genuinely* changed thanks to Covid. A redesign / rethink is perfectly sensible, but instead we will end up with an unusable stub fit for nothing. All the cost and more besides, none of the benefits,
    That’s why I wonder if Starmer will kill it
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 10,794

    More that there is a certain mindset.

    I worked with a lawyer once. Who claimed

    - that since testing can’t cover every possible branch of complex code, that all developers are incompetent
    - Accused me of insolence when I pointed out that a certain problem was actual The Travelling Salesman problem. And hence had no guaranteed perfect solution.

    Essentially he thought that reality should do as it’s told.
    And most politicians are lawyers
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,537

    But, but, but….

    @Mexicanpete said:
    ...
    At the next GE the SNP are going to smash Starmer Labour out of the park.
    Well they'll probably still have loads more seats than Labour in Scotland. But it pretty encouraging.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,440

    Not sure if this has been done yet, but this week's YouGov poll was published by The Times Red Box this morning:
    Labour 45 (-2)
    Tory 23 (-2)
    LibDem 10 (-)
    Greens 7 (+1)
    Reform 7 (+2)
    SNP 4 (-)
    No polling dates were provided, but the previous week's (referenced in brackets) was 28th February and 1st March, so it's likely this one was conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday. If so, no Tory small boat bounce as yet.

    Anyone expecting a 'Small Boat Bounce' takes an even dimmer view of the Great British public than I do. Braverman looks and sounds like a souped up Patel. The most unpopular member of an unpopulat government. Are people really attracted to those who seem to enjoy pulling the wings off flies?
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,381

    The other important thing is "run things in a way that rejoin is a plausible option when we're ready to make that decision". Which will be about a decade from here.
    The EU need to be sure whatever a SKS government asked for wouldn't get overturned five years later under, say, PM Kemi Badenoch. This basically rules out membership of the customs union or single market in Labour's first term. The EU have to be sure that even the Tory party was at least open minded about re-joining before it would feel safe enough to enter into accession talks with the UK.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,440

    Not to mention the 33% dk/would not say.
    Not sure what the standard turnout for party leader elections is. Anyone know what it was for the Trussterfuck?
    Hi TUD. Am I allowed to ask who you favour?

  • Leon said:

    What are the chances Starmer kills it off completely?

    He can say they will use the work done to increase present capacity. He can say they will recoup losses by selling land compulsorily purchased. He can say “I will build the Northern Power Line instead” and please his Red Wall

    He can’t say NOTHING because that great big festering hole at Euston is literally his constituency. His office probably faces it
    The business case has changed. Less business travel, more leisure travel. Despite anecdotage about empty trains the data shows that lack of capacity remains a problem, it's just that the types of flow and the timings are different. We also need to keep trying to transfer more and more freight off the roads which again is difficult because of capacity.

    What I would do is hardball negotiation with the contractors. If we scrap the thing completely as you suggest then contractor consortia will end up losing a lot of cash. At the same time, what they are building isn't what we need.

    So, pause the whole thing and:
    1. Reengineer to a slower top speed. 200mph not 240mph.
    2. Remove the contractual bullshit about how the contractor is responsible for a theoretical derailment in 2075. So much of the costs explosion has been from this. Build the infrastructure fit for purpose, not nuke-proof
    3. Tie in the faffy bits like the Euston leg into redevelopment - the infrastructure runs underneath, developers make £lots and thus charge less

    And so on. And if the consortia object to the changing of their contracts, threaten them with scrapping the whole thing and not meeting our contractual obligations. They'll say "nobody will ever build infrastructure again" and perhaps they won't. So have BuildCo do it as the rest of Europe do.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,295

    Looking unlikely right now, but imagine we have a hung parliament where the SNP hold the balance of power. Kate Forbes is leader of the SNP, whose economic and social views suggest she would very likely be a Tory voter had she been born south of the border.
    Labour refuses to accede to her demands for indyref2, but Rishi actually approaches Forbes and says he'd agree to if the SNP propped him up.
    Is it possible at all she would say yes and prop the Tories up?

    SNP would never take action that led to a Tory government.

    Oh, wait... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1979_vote_of_no_confidence_in_the_Callaghan_ministry#Vote
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,314

    But, but, but….

    @Mexicanpete said:
    ...
    At the next GE the SNP are going to smash Starmer Labour out of the park.
    I think folk are failing to get Mexicanpete’s particular brand of mordant schtick..
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,537
    Pagan2 said:

    And most politicians are lawyers
    This piece from 2019 (pre GE) claims the number of lawyers is decreasing, though still high obviously. More political bag carriers and fewer legal people I guess, so not really an improvement.

    There is a long and logical tradition of kinship between lawyers and the legislature: the houses of parliament have on occasion been led by lawyers (David Lloyd George, Tony Blair) and are regularly topped up with lawyers: the current cohort of MPs from the general election in 2017 has an 11% lawyer intake, the second largest group after business (14%) outside politics. Those MPs are well known to us: Geoffrey Cox QC, Chuka Umunna, Dominic Grieve QC, Lucy Frazer QC, Keir Starmer QC, Helen Grant and so on and on.

    But this percentage is down on the steady 15% lawyer-parliamentarians that has been the norm ever since the 1970s.


    https://www.legalcheek.com/2019/07/law-and-politics-is-the-romance-finally-over/

    However, solicitors vs barristers have been increasing it seems


    https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7483/CBP-7483.pdf
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,314
    Roger said:

    Hi TUD. Am I allowed to ask who you favour?

    Not Regan is my one certainty so far.
  • Roger said:

    Anyone expecting a 'Small Boat Bounce' takes an even dimmer view of the Great British public than I do. Braverman looks and sounds like a souped up Patel. The most unpopular member of an unpopulat government. Are people really attracted to those who seem to enjoy pulling the wings off flies?
    Seems 50% support Sunak on boats

    Britain Elects

    On banning migrants who come to the UK in small boats from ever re-entering the UK

    Support: 50%
    Oppose: 36%

    via
    @YouGov
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Looking unlikely right now, but imagine we have a hung parliament where the SNP hold the balance of power. Kate Forbes is leader of the SNP, whose economic and social views suggest she would very likely be a Tory voter had she been born south of the border.
    Labour refuses to accede to her demands for indyref2, but Rishi actually approaches Forbes and says he'd agree to if the SNP propped him up.
    Is it possible at all she would say yes and prop the Tories up?

    No. Nobody wiould trust the Tories after last time.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,730

    The business case has changed. Less business travel, more leisure travel. Despite anecdotage about empty trains the data shows that lack of capacity remains a problem, it's just that the types of flow and the timings are different. We also need to keep trying to transfer more and more freight off the roads which again is difficult because of capacity.

    What I would do is hardball negotiation with the contractors. If we scrap the thing completely as you suggest then contractor consortia will end up losing a lot of cash. At the same time, what they are building isn't what we need.

    So, pause the whole thing and:
    1. Reengineer to a slower top speed. 200mph not 240mph.
    2. Remove the contractual bullshit about how the contractor is responsible for a theoretical derailment in 2075. So much of the costs explosion has been from this. Build the infrastructure fit for purpose, not nuke-proof
    3. Tie in the faffy bits like the Euston leg into redevelopment - the infrastructure runs underneath, developers make £lots and thus charge less

    And so on. And if the consortia object to the changing of their contracts, threaten them with scrapping the whole thing and not meeting our contractual obligations. They'll say "nobody will ever build infrastructure again" and perhaps they won't. So have BuildCo do it as the rest of Europe do.
    Interesting. Starmer will have to say something and soon. He’s got angry Camden voters to answer, directly
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560
    Carnyx said:

    No. Nobody wiould trust the Tories after last time.
    Resulting in more ammunition for the "the SNP don't actually want another referendum" crowd...
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,790
    Carnyx said:

    Difference is that Ms Truss was not at all popular with the actual voters.
    That was never tested.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,469
    Evening all :)

    YouGov are currently polling weekly for the Times - the last poll had fieldwork of 28 Feb - 1 Mar so it's probable this was Tuesday and yesterday.

    It's a GB poll with a sample of round 2,000 and the sub-samples are always interesting though not to be taken too seriously.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    SNP would never take action that led to a Tory government.

    Oh, wait... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1979_vote_of_no_confidence_in_the_Callaghan_ministry#Vote
    Disappointing to see PBers still can't understand thje nature of causality, never mind the actual history of the time.

    Even were Benpointer's interprtetation correct, you have to remember that Labour had massively reneged on thje referendum promise by counting the dead as No and imposing a minimum for Yes.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,786
    HYUFD said:

    She might but Forbes is more rightwing than Sunak so she increases the chances of a Labour majority or at least enough seats to just need the LDs for a majority not the SNP. She would likely lose seats to Scottish Labour but gain most of the remaining SCon seats
    Is she a TORY even? Does she meet your criteria?
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366

    The EU need to be sure whatever a SKS government asked for wouldn't get overturned five years later under, say, PM Kemi Badenoch. This basically rules out membership of the customs union or single market in Labour's first term. The EU have to be sure that even the Tory party was at least open minded about re-joining before it would feel safe enough to enter into accession talks with the UK.
    Does it really make sense for a SKS government to pull out of the CPTPP, likely signed by then, with a dozen countries for slightly more access to the EU? Especially if the new NI agreement shows regulatory divergence can work?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,537

    Seems 50% support Sunak on boats

    Britain Elects

    On banning migrants who come to the UK in small boats from ever re-entering the UK

    Support: 50%
    Oppose: 36%

    via
    @YouGov
    I don't think many people deny that there is public support for doing very harsh things on this issue. It makes sense politically to try to go after that vote, even if overpromising could bite him severely in the arse. It's a question of whether it a) is lawful, b) reasonable, even as an extreme measure, c) would even work.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    kinabalu said:

    Is she a TORY even? Does she meet your criteria?
    No. Doesn't believe in the UK. I'd have thought it was a rather big hint.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 5,173
    Driver said:

    Rejoin needs a whole lot more than people thinking the current situation is shit.
    Indeed. It needs at least 10-15 years for relations between the EU and the UK to calm down and stabilise (far from a certain prospect in itself, given the potential for a further spat over Northern Ireland, the boat people problem, or any number of other things.) Then it needs a stable majority of something like 2:1 in public opinion for re-entry, in the knowledge that the UK would be almost certain to end up as a bigger net contributor to the EU budget than before, would have to accept FoM again and would also be expected to join the Euro. It also requires unequivocal backing from all the main political parties - which means that the tiny rump of elderly Tory members have an effective veto over the entire process.

    I'm not saying that the UK will never go back, but it would be a major surprise if it happened this side of 2050.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    That was never tested.
    What on earth do you think the result would have been aftwer the Kamikwazi Budget?!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,790
    Nigelb said:

    'Cos that always works.

    HS2 construction to be delayed to save money
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-64901985

    I expect the net economic benefits of HS2 in my lifetime to be nil. Or worse.

    Just. Kill. It.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,009
    kinabalu said:

    Is she a TORY even? Does she meet your criteria?
    Seems to be as she has not said she wants a republic unlike Yousaf, she has also not said she would back disestablishing the Church of England nor back scrapping the remaining hereditary peers in the Lords.

    Forbes is also more of a tax cutter than Rishi and Hunt it seems and more socially conservative, opposing homosexual marriage and abortion. She even opposes women priests. On those issues she is right of both me and Rishi
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,009
    Carnyx said:

    No. Nobody wiould trust the Tories after last time.
    A Forbes led SNP would be the more rightwing element of a Sunak led minority government
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,321
    HYUFD said:

    A Forbes led SNP would be the more rightwing element of a Sunak led minority government
    I'm just looking forward to the Labour ads showing a tiny Sunak in Forbes's pocket
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,786

    More that there is a certain mindset.

    I worked with a lawyer once. Who claimed

    - that since testing can’t cover every possible branch of complex code, that all developers are incompetent
    - Accused me of insolence when I pointed out that a certain problem was actual The Travelling Salesman problem. And hence had no guaranteed perfect solution.

    Essentially he thought that reality should do as it’s told.
    Was it you calling it "the travelling salesman problem" that caused an atmosphere?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,467
    kamski said:

    I'm just looking forward to the Labour ads showing a tiny Sunak in Forbes's pocket
    They won't have to mess about too much with the scales.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,295
    Carnyx said:

    Disappointing to see PBers still can't understand thje nature of causality, never mind the actual history of the time.

    Even were Benpointer's interprtetation correct, you have to remember that Labour had massively reneged on thje referendum promise by counting the dead as No and imposing a minimum for Yes.
    I was teasing. I don't actually blame the SNP for letting Thatcher in: There was going to have to be an election within 6 months anyway; it was not certain that the Tories would win; the Liberals (remember them?) also voted No Confidence.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    This is brilliant: a 45 minute discussion on current affairs between Jon Stewart and Ian Hislop.

    https://youtube.com/watch?v=pbOiXmMnyw4

    Well worth watching, even if you don’t agree with their perspectives.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,009
    edited March 2023
    kle4 said:

    This piece from 2019 (pre GE) claims the number of lawyers is decreasing, though still high obviously. More political bag carriers and fewer legal people I guess, so not really an improvement.

    There is a long and logical tradition of kinship between lawyers and the legislature: the houses of parliament have on occasion been led by lawyers (David Lloyd George, Tony Blair) and are regularly topped up with lawyers: the current cohort of MPs from the general election in 2017 has an 11% lawyer intake, the second largest group after business (14%) outside politics. Those MPs are well known to us: Geoffrey Cox QC, Chuka Umunna, Dominic Grieve QC, Lucy Frazer QC, Keir Starmer QC, Helen Grant and so on and on.

    But this percentage is down on the steady 15% lawyer-parliamentarians that has been the norm ever since the 1970s.


    https://www.legalcheek.com/2019/07/law-and-politics-is-the-romance-finally-over/

    However, solicitors vs barristers have been increasing it seems


    https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7483/CBP-7483.pdf
    Exactly, there are more ex SPADs and political reserchers and councillors amongst MPs now than lawyers.

    Less than 10% of newly elected MPs in 2019 were lawyers, over a third in all parties and over half in Labour and the SNP were councillors though. 9.3% of Tories and 9.5% of Labour and more than that of SNP and LDs were political researchers or SPADs.

    25% of new Conservative MPs worked in Business to just 8% who were lawyers
    https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7483/CBP-7483.pdf
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,295
    HYUFD said:

    A Forbes led SNP would be the more rightwing element of a Sunak led minority government
    Don't be silly. Forbes might be a social conservative but her SNP MPs are not in the main.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,098

    I was teasing. I don't actually blame the SNP for letting Thatcher in: There was going to have to be an election within 6 months anyway; it was not certain that the Tories would win; the Liberals (remember them?) also voted No Confidence.
    But the SNP knew that a Tory win was in their strategic interest and lured first the LibDems, and then Labour, into calling for election at precisely the worst time.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,009

    Don't be silly. Forbes might be a social conservative but her SNP MPs are not in the main.
    Assuming most of them don't defect to the Scottish Greens if she becomes leader, unlike the Tories there is no mechanism for MSPs or MPs to remove an SNP leader without members support
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,314
    kamski said:

    I'm just looking forward to the Labour ads showing a tiny* Sunak in Forbes's pocket
    *a lifesize Sunak in Forbes's pocket
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,009
    edited March 2023
    Carnyx said:

    No. Doesn't believe in the UK. I'd have thought it was a rather big hint.
    The Tories existed even before the Act of Union, that simply means she isn't a Conservative and Unionist
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,790
    Leon said:

    “Basic Victorian Grandiosity” is about seven trillion times better than the shite we have now
    Most of the residents of Britain's cities would happily swap their houses/flats for the most basic of Victorian grandiosity.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,381

    That was never tested.
    She had a net approval rating of -70, which was worse than even Corbyn at the very nadir of his popularity. There is just no way back from that.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,009
    C4 news SNP leadership debate now
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,786
    Carnyx said:

    No. Doesn't believe in the UK. I'd have thought it was a rather big hint.
    But apart from that pesky matter he sounds like a fan. Course he could be trolling slightly. This is not to be ruled out.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,381
    Carnyx said:

    What on earth do you think the result would have been aftwer the Kamikwazi Budget?!
    She couldn't cope with the easy questions Fraser Nelson and Katy Balls threw at her in the Spectator interview. God knows how she would have coped on the campaign trail during a GE.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,537
    I have to admit this thought occurred to me when someone suggested the Tories taking on David Attenborough next as being a stupid idea (which it very much would be), due to comments he's made about the industrial revolution - whilst he may have thought through the implications of that, I do think it has an image problem which doesn't consider the good points.

    Err not sure these two things are the same. The first counts as pure environmental degradation, the second was costly but had the upside of by far the biggest increase in human welfare in history.


    Unfair to pick on this otherwise interesting post but it's a mistake that comes up surprisingly often. What do people think life would be like if we hadn't burnt fossil fuels? Like it is now, just no climate crisis?

    https://twitter.com/mrianleslie/status/1633845495595671552/photo/1
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,790
    ydoethur said:

    Northampton is a load of cobblers.
    It's a bit of a boot.
  • WillGWillG Posts: 2,366
    pigeon said:

    Indeed. It needs at least 10-15 years for relations between the EU and the UK to calm down and stabilise (far from a certain prospect in itself, given the potential for a further spat over Northern Ireland, the boat people problem, or any number of other things.) Then it needs a stable majority of something like 2:1 in public opinion for re-entry, in the knowledge that the UK would be almost certain to end up as a bigger net contributor to the EU budget than before, would have to accept FoM again and would also be expected to join the Euro. It also requires unequivocal backing from all the main political parties - which means that the tiny rump of elderly Tory members have an effective veto over the entire process.

    I'm not saying that the UK will never go back, but it would be a major surprise if it happened this side of 2050.
    At which point the EU will be a mighty 9% of world GDP.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,537
    HYUFD said:

    The Tories existed even before the Act of Union, that simply means she isn't a Conservative and Unionist
    Which Act of Union? Don't go too far back or you'll end up implying only Sinn Fein are the real Tories.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,537
    kamski said:

    I'm just looking forward to the Labour ads showing a tiny Sunak in Forbes's pocket
    There's another kind of Sunak?
This discussion has been closed.