Daily Mail claims that Olymipic rower James Cracknell might be put in place by CCHQ to fight against Mark Reckless.
So the Tories want to parachute in a TV /Sports celebrity A-lister when Reckless is going to fight a local campaign. CCHQ as ever develops a winning plan.
‘But today’s poll suggests Ukip’s support has increased much more in the South of England outside London than it has elsewhere in the UK – by a staggering 34 points.
‘If that level was recorded throughout the South, Ukip could win as many as 128 seats, with no less than 102 of them coming from the Conservatives, whose vote in the region is down 14 points. In that event, Cameron would be left with just 187 seats, almost as weak a position as the Conservatives were in after their calamitous defeat in 1997.
Now assuming that in referring to the South the MoS is referring to the South East, Eastern & South West regions that gives us the following vote shares from 2010 of
Con 47% LD 28% Lab 17% UKIP 4% Green 1% Other 3%
Using the above we can project vote shares of
UKIP 38% (+34) Con 33% (-14) Other 29% (-20)
Now the seat distribution in 2010 for the three regions was
Con 163 LD 22 Lab 11 Grn 1
Using the above we can project the following seat distribution:
UKIP 128 (+128) Con 61 (-102) Other 8 (-26)
If Tory MPs were reasonably chillaxed about the UKIP situation before they won't be now!
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‘But today’s poll suggests Ukip’s support has increased much more in the South of England outside London than it has elsewhere in the UK – by a staggering 34 points.
‘If that level was recorded throughout the South, Ukip could win as many as 128 seats, with no less than 102 of them coming from the Conservatives, whose vote in the region is down 14 points. In that event, Cameron would be left with just 187 seats, almost as weak a position as the Conservatives were in after their calamitous defeat in 1997.
Now assuming that in referring to the South the MoS is referring to the South East, Eastern & South West regions that gives us the following vote shares from 2010 of
Con 47%
LD 28%
Lab 17%
UKIP 4%
Green 1%
Other 3%
Using the above we can project vote shares of
UKIP 38% (+34)
Con 33% (-14)
Other 29% (-20)
Now the seat distribution in 2010 for the three regions was
Con 163
LD 22
Lab 11
Grn 1
Using the above we can project the following seat distribution:
UKIP 128 (+128)
Con 61 (-102)
Other 8 (-26)
If Tory MPs were reasonably chillaxed about the UKIP situation before they won't be now!