ZenPagan My preferred system would be AV + a PR top up, but I would accept two ballot votes as in France
My preferred system is the two ballot system as in France but I accept the difficulties in attaining such a voting system for this country.
PR^2 has everything any-one could want, and more.
i) constituencies, not unlike the pre-1950 scenario in some places, and like the pre-1885 almost everywhere. Constituencies that represent proper communities too. ii) room for some local independents iii) both quasi-Majoritarian and quasi-PR. Single-party government still a possibility iv) no landslides v) choice of candidate within party, safe seats effectively abolished vi) voters' coalition preferences recorded, in the event of a hung-parliament vii) far more people get a party/MP they voted for viii) no electoral bias, no wrong-winner elections ix) every vote counts equally towards the result, a Tory in Glasgow as much as a Labourite in Surrey. Not just the marginals. x) regional polarization reduced. Tory MPs in Scotland, Labour MPs in the South.
UKIP is the frankenstein's monster of the Tory press and it is hilarious watching the sheer unadulterated panic in these organs now their creation is out of their control!
And running amok in the Labour heartlands.
And losing. No prizes for 2nd place under FPTP.
Impressed with the Labour performance were you?
A 600 majority in a safe seat and run out of town in Clacton, though of course we should point out that Labour have given up in the South.
One Nation rules eh?
It's a Labour MP and not a hapless UKIP one.
Yes, I'm pleased.
Talking of hapless did you see the Pilgrim's victory speech?
And I am pleased that you are pleased because it shows that you and Labour supporters like you have learnt the square root of fuck all.
I've learned UKIP are very good at coming 2nd to Labour in northern seats. Especially in low turnout elections.
Net result there so far: Zero UKIP MPs.
I was derided a few weeks back for saying that they would win 10 seats in GE 2015, now thats almost a given.
I hope not, I have a bet with PtP they won't get more than 5 at most!
A little piece of news from North Britain those of you in Englandshire will not hear about.
As you may have seen on Twitter the SNP membership has risen from 25,000 to over 80,000 since 18th September. Apparently the Scottish Greens membership has tripled to over 6,000 and today former SNP MSP for Highlands John Finnie was unveiled at the Greens conference as their newest recruit. He will remain an Independent MSP until 2016 and then plans to stand for the Greens. A former leader of Highland Council, he was a police dog handler when I knew him 30 years ago.
As the increased SNP support threatens SLAB, so the increased Green support threatens what will be left of the Scottish LibDems in seats like Edinburgh West and Fife NE where there are reasonable numbers of students.
All those new members are going to revitalise the parties, but also change them. That is the danger of incomers, who are are a two edged sword.
Labour – which has been living on some distant planet where the realities of earthlings do not impinge – has been blown to smithereens. Bizarrely, they seem not to have seen this catastrophe at Heywood and Middleton coming, which is a testimony to just how out of touch they were. And it is so much more than the near-loss of a safe seat, so much worse than a defection of what would once have been a constituency of “Our People”. It is nothing less than a collision with a truth that makes them utterly irrelevant. The real national argument now – the only political debate that matters to ordinary voters – is being conducted on the Right. The Tories may have an electoral problem with Ukip, but at least they are still in the conversation.
i) parties abandon manifesto commitments ii) parties introduce things that weren't in the manifesto iii) some voters vote for parties despite what's in their manifesto! iv) parties often have to cut grubby deals with their own rebellious members and/or minor parties, once they're in office, in any case. v) the system can't even guarantee the correct plurality winner gains a majority/plurality.
So much for the "purity" of single-party government under FPTP...
But the problem is deeper.
Aside from the government aspect, there is the representation aspect, and the House of Commons is intended to supply both.
In the hey-day of the two-party system, at least it could be said:-
i) the vast majority (90%+) supported one of two viable parties of government. If your party lost this time, there was always next time. You had a stake in the process... Now there appears to be 35%+ (before we even consider abstainers) who don't support the duoply, and whose votes are not reflected remotely accurately in the House of Commons.
ii) at the constituency-level, most people got an MP they voted for... At the last two general elections, most people didn't!. Any wonder only 20% can name their MP? [Hansard Society]
Combined, these two factors are responsible for falling turnouts, disengagement and the general alienation of voters from the political class.
There is a terminal malaise in the body politic, which no rational observer can deny or view with equanimity.
All of which is an indictment of our political parties and their policies and nothing to do with the voting system (hence when the electorate had the opportunity to change the voting system they voted it down by 2 to 1) and when they have the opportunity to vote for a credible alternative party offering counter proposals to the post war liberal consensus some quarter or so of the electorate start dabbling with them.
The voters rejected another majoritarian system over the present one. Nothing more...
Well I'm glad you've had opportunity to survey everybody. Pity you missed me because personally I resented the fact that the Libdems wasted thousands on a referendum just to shuffle the deck chairs on the Titanic. The voting system will not fix our broken politics only a considerable improvement in the quality and behaviour of our politicians will.
The voting system is effectively the recruitment process. You think it doesn't affect the caliber and behaviours of the MPs?
A little piece of news from North Britain those of you in Englandshire will not hear about.
As you may have seen on Twitter the SNP membership has risen from 25,000 to over 80,000 since 18th September. Apparently the Scottish Greens membership has tripled to over 6,000 and today former SNP MSP for Highlands John Finnie was unveiled at the Greens conference as their newest recruit. He will remain an Independent MSP until 2016 and then plans to stand for the Greens. A former leader of Highland Council, he was a police dog handler when I knew him 30 years ago.
As the increased SNP support threatens SLAB, so the increased Green support threatens what will be left of the Scottish LibDems in seats like Edinburgh West and Fife NE where there are reasonable numbers of students.
You will have to explain to me why the students won't vote LD. Didn't tuition fees remain the same in Scotland?
My "UKIP bigot in the Daily Mail" downthread is actually Simon Danczuk, and ed is clearly writing with Danczuk's gun to his head. To recap;
"The political classes may benefit from immigration with cheap au pairs and cleaners, but people in my part of the world cannot afford au pairs or cleaners. Ed Miliband may feel uncomfortable at talking about immigration because he’s the son of immigrants. Well, I’m sorry, but he has no choice but to grasp the nettle."
So that's edm and danczuk scared witless by H&M, and BenM unconcerned. Whose judgment to trust?
LOL at this in ed's piece. the real villain of the piece is still of course FATCHA:
"I recognise Ukip is also tapping into a seam of discontent and despair that Labour cannot – and will not – ignore. It is a sentiment that has developed over decades during which industries that used to provide decent prospects have disappeared at the same time as immigration has wrought huge changes in some communities."
Matt Chorley @MattChorley 1m1 minute ago Survation/MoS poll puts UKIP on 25%. Lab 31% Con 31% LibDem 8%. Which in theory gives UKIP 128 MPs. #FarageMania
UKIP is the frankenstein's monster of the Tory press and it is hilarious watching the sheer unadulterated panic in these organs now their creation is out of their control!
And running amok in the Labour heartlands.
And losing. No prizes for 2nd place under FPTP.
If Labour had lost by 600 votes, you'd be banging on about how close it was.
A little piece of news from North Britain those of you in Englandshire will not hear about.
As you may have seen on Twitter the SNP membership has risen from 25,000 to over 80,000 since 18th September. Apparently the Scottish Greens membership has tripled to over 6,000 and today former SNP MSP for Highlands John Finnie was unveiled at the Greens conference as their newest recruit. He will remain an Independent MSP until 2016 and then plans to stand for the Greens. A former leader of Highland Council, he was a police dog handler when I knew him 30 years ago.
As the increased SNP support threatens SLAB, so the increased Green support threatens what will be left of the Scottish LibDems in seats like Edinburgh West and Fife NE where there are reasonable numbers of students.
All those new members are going to revitalise the parties, but also change them. That is the danger of incomers, who are are a two edged sword.
UKIP is the frankenstein's monster of the Tory press and it is hilarious watching the sheer unadulterated panic in these organs now their creation is out of their control!
And running amok in the Labour heartlands.
And losing. No prizes for 2nd place under FPTP.
If Labour had lost by 600 votes, you'd be banging on about how close it was.
Labour kept their MP.
Which is why Kippers ARE banging on about how close it was.
Labour – which has been living on some distant planet where the realities of earthlings do not impinge – has been blown to smithereens. Bizarrely, they seem not to have seen this catastrophe at Heywood and Middleton coming, which is a testimony to just how out of touch they were. And it is so much more than the near-loss of a safe seat, so much worse than a defection of what would once have been a constituency of “Our People”. It is nothing less than a collision with a truth that makes them utterly irrelevant. The real national argument now – the only political debate that matters to ordinary voters – is being conducted on the Right. The Tories may have an electoral problem with Ukip, but at least they are still in the conversation.
Have to keep the 'We're not just Tories' thing in peoples' consciousness until something more solid comes up to prove it electorally, if it will happen.
I hear those things a lot...and then people vote in the same old lot as always, and although not as high as it could be, turnout has experienced a bit of an upturn as well, so for all those who say 'what is the point in voting?', we are not experiencing a terminal decline.
The Iraq war example just confused me, because if people were angry at being dismissed over such an issue - and while I was against it, what about the silent majority who could not give a damn apparently? Is it fair to do things on the basis of who shouts the loudest? - they could have voted for someone else, for parties that didn't vote for the war or who advocated for a whole new political system, and they didn't, they voted in Blair again. Sure it's tough under FPTP, but if people are as angry at the system as much as you seem to think they are, a candidate advocating a sweeping redesign of our politics would win handily whatever their partisan politics. And they don't.
People may not like our politicians or our system. But nor do they seem discontented to the point of action over it.
Ask people if they want more of a say in things, of course they'll say yes, but although models exist over that, to have more of say over individual policy, we are not yet at the stage where people care enough apparently. If there was an appetite for it, we'd see more of our current MPs advocate for such things than is currently the case, we're always told they have no backbone or real ideas and just react to things, if people were clamouring for that sort of thing, more of them would back it out of self preservation I suspect.
Maybe we'll get to such a pass one day, to totally redesigning how we do politics, but it does not look on the horizon from where I'm standing. UKIP may or may not break through in a significant way, but despite some different ideas, they'll operate in our system the same as anyone else, and that's all people seem to want right now. People do want a choice over more than red, blue or yellow...but unfortunately all they seem to want to do is add purple, green and maybe a few others to the list of options. People still seem very happy with tribal party politics as far as I can see, we're just seeing some changes in tribes.
Would you care to point out the party that has ever stood on a platform of completely reforming the political system? (Hint the lib dems are not an acceptable answer they like the current system and just want to tweak it a bit more into their favour)
People still vote for these parties because they have no other choice if they wish to vote. Its all thats on offer. Others have taken an ever bigger slice of the cake even so. Many constituencies are like mine however and have only 3 contenders, we didnt had a green or ukip candidate even in 2010 just 3 parties on the ballot.
I resent not voting but in 2015 I probably won't bother
Matt Chorley @MattChorley 1m1 minute ago Survation/MoS poll puts UKIP on 25%. Lab 31% Con 31% LibDem 8%. Which in theory gives UKIP 128 MPs. #FarageMania
I leave for an hour and look what happens.
Farage for PM anyone?
I wondered if we might reach a scenario where all three parties might end up in the 20's. Not far to go......
So...who was the first person here to get on the UKIP/LD match bet? I just about got better than evens. isam probably got something sickening like 3/1.
Oh well, off to bet on every constituency isam has ever mentioned!
UKIP is the frankenstein's monster of the Tory press and it is hilarious watching the sheer unadulterated panic in these organs now their creation is out of their control!
And running amok in the Labour heartlands.
And losing. No prizes for 2nd place under FPTP.
If Labour had lost by 600 votes, you'd be banging on about how close it was.
Labour kept their MP.
Which is why Kippers ARE banging on about how close it was.
One MP is neither here nor there at this stage of a Parliament, especially as UKIP got their man in in Clacton. Think what the swing would mean if replicated in other, more marginal, seats.
Labour – which has been living on some distant planet where the realities of earthlings do not impinge – has been blown to smithereens. Bizarrely, they seem not to have seen this catastrophe at Heywood and Middleton coming, which is a testimony to just how out of touch they were. And it is so much more than the near-loss of a safe seat, so much worse than a defection of what would once have been a constituency of “Our People”. It is nothing less than a collision with a truth that makes them utterly irrelevant. The real national argument now – the only political debate that matters to ordinary voters – is being conducted on the Right. The Tories may have an electoral problem with Ukip, but at least they are still in the conversation.
Which Party lost an MP on Thurs? Which is about to lose another next month? And potentially more after that?
Not Labour, if anyone wants a clue.
Forget about childish tribal politics, what do you really think? I mean you Ben, not the spinning bollocks you delight in.
Are you happy with Ed? With abandoning your core vote? With the fact that the WWC have left Labour forever?
No spinning shit as we will see right through it, answer honestly in the way Danny always does.
I want the Tories out of government. This is a parliamentary democracy. The Tories are desperate to turn this into a quite un-British presidential contest, but the public ain't buying it.
I may not be wholly enamoured of the leader of the Labour Party, but I relate to the values and ethos of the Labour Party itself which I feel are superior to those of the Tories (and no doubt many here feel the exact opposite which I at least respect), and massively more in touch with planet earth than the wretched reactionary wibblings from your lot.
So...who was the first person here to get on the UKIP/LD match bet? I just about got better than evens. isam probably got something sickening like 3/1.
Oh well, off to bet on every constituency isam has ever mentioned!
I can't believe Billy Hill is still offering 1.91 for 5 or more seats
Would you care to point out the party that has ever stood on a platform of completely reforming the political system?
That's my point - no one has or will because there is no appetite for it. Even minor changes like which voting system to use are controversial to talk about, in that they are immediately told that there are more important things to worry about.
People still vote for these parties because they have no other choice if they wish to vote. Its all thats on offer. Others have taken an ever bigger slice of the cake even so. Many constituencies are like mine however and have only 3 contenders, we didnt had a green or ukip candidate even in 2010 just 3 parties on the ballot.
No one is limiting the offer is my point. Any party could stand, or any current party could alter its stance to be that which you wish. Winning under FPTP would not be easy on such a platform, but with no-one preventing anyone from standing on that platform, or for people within the parties to push their colleagues to move to such a platform, if people were incensed over this 'lack of choice' they would do something about it.
Therefore, even though people moan about our system, I cannot agree they are really that angry about it, not to the point of even being close to sharing your own view on radical redevelopment of our politics (which for the record I would not be averse to, or at the least not averse to seeing more of a national debate about) as being a good idea, or we'd see some sign of it either in a new party advocating it, or major parts within the main parties sharing that view and pressing for such a position. There is nothing but glimmers.
If the voter turnout were in terminal decline then maybe I could concede that people were making their views know that way, but it isn't. It's not as high as it could be, but it went up last time and who knows this time, so people are not simply disengaging from our very system even if fewer are actually joining political parties (unless you are the SNP or Scottis Greens I guess).
Labour – which has been living on some distant planet where the realities of earthlings do not impinge – has been blown to smithereens. Bizarrely, they seem not to have seen this catastrophe at Heywood and Middleton coming, which is a testimony to just how out of touch they were. And it is so much more than the near-loss of a safe seat, so much worse than a defection of what would once have been a constituency of “Our People”. It is nothing less than a collision with a truth that makes them utterly irrelevant. The real national argument now – the only political debate that matters to ordinary voters – is being conducted on the Right. The Tories may have an electoral problem with Ukip, but at least they are still in the conversation.
Which Party lost an MP on Thurs? Which is about to lose another next month? And potentially more after that?
Not Labour, if anyone wants a clue.
Forget about childish tribal politics, what do you really think? I mean you Ben, not the spinning bollocks you delight in.
Are you happy with Ed? With abandoning your core vote? With the fact that the WWC have left Labour forever?
No spinning shit as we will see right through it, answer honestly in the way Danny always does.
I want the Tories out of government. This is a parliamentary democracy. The Tories are desperate to turn this into a quite un-British presidential contest, but the public ain't buying it.
I may not be wholly enamoured of the leader of the Labour Party, but I relate to the values and ethos of the Labour Party itself which I feel are superior to those of the Tories (and no doubt many here feel the exact opposite which I at least respect), and massively more in touch with planet earth than the wretched reactionary wibblings from your lot.
Fair enough, thanks.
I couldn't disagree more but that's not the point.
David Cameron won't have made it to the petty anti Miliband swipe. His bowels would have emptied at the headline.
Cameron is as good as out.
LOL. If that is a "petty swipe", please tell us what a serious indictment of Miliband's leadership would look like. And, while you are there, whether there are American tanks in Baghdad?
"Cameron is as good as out" - do you mean he is going to be deposed? Care to indicate when, roughly?
Looking at the Libs,could there be a bouncelet from their conference.On 2 matters,the legal regulation of medical cannabis,where even Australian President Abbott has declared his support,and STV in local elections to help prevent the one party states like Rotherham,they are,of course,correct.They could make 35 seats,including Bermondsey.
Here we go on Newmark story...been sexting another woman apparently. Question is, is woman #2 real or no? He has got lucky, as it seems a footballer has been doing the same.
I hear those things a lot...and then people vote in the same old lot as always, and although not as high as it could be, turnout has experienced a bit of an upturn as well, so for all those who say 'what is the point in voting?', we are not experiencing a terminal decline.
Would you care to point out the party that has ever stood on a platform of completely reforming the political system? (Hint the lib dems are not an acceptable answer they like the current system and just want to tweak it a bit more into their favour)
People still vote for these parties because they have no other choice if they wish to vote. Its all thats on offer. Others have taken an ever bigger slice of the cake even so. Many constituencies are like mine however and have only 3 contenders, we didnt had a green or ukip candidate even in 2010 just 3 parties on the ballot.
I resent not voting but in 2015 I probably won't bother
Well UKIP are talking about quite considerable change to our democracy
Withdrawal from the EU Federalisation of the UK Abolition of the House Of Lords Abolition of whole Government departments (DCMS & Climate Change & Energy) Resolution of the English Question (and reforming Barnett devolving taxation powers to the home nations) Devolution of powers from central Government Departments to county and local level (Monitor, CQC, creation of Grammar Schools etc) Introduction of direct democracy over planning applications.
I suspect there would be further decentralisation over an extended period but you can only absorb a certain amount of change at any one time
Which Party lost an MP on Thurs? Which is about to lose another next month? And potentially more after that?
Not Labour, if anyone wants a clue.
Forget about childish tribal politics, what do you really think? I mean you Ben, not the spinning bollocks you delight in.
Are you happy with Ed? With abandoning your core vote? With the fact that the WWC have left Labour forever?
No spinning shit as we will see right through it, answer honestly in the way Danny always does.
I want the Tories out of government. This is a parliamentary democracy. The Tories are desperate to turn this into a quite un-British presidential contest, but the public ain't buying it.
I may not be wholly enamoured of the leader of the Labour Party, but I relate to the values and ethos of the Labour Party itself which I feel are superior to those of the Tories (and no doubt many here feel the exact opposite which I at least respect), and massively more in touch with planet earth than the wretched reactionary wibblings from your lot.
While I personally do not particularly see the Labour Party as being superior in values or ethos as any of the other parties, not least because the parties leap all around the spectrum thesedays so there is not much consistency of values from any of them if they feel there are votes in it, and I scoff at the laziness of Labour arguments on being more in touch than the Tories (or at least the extent of it) without much evidence of differentiation from the Tories in background, style or many policies that would indicate such a sizable gap...I would actually agree that by and large most people, or at least the larger amount of people, do to one degree or another feel the same way regarding Labour being more in touch and having superior values re ordinary people, and those pinning hopes on a presidential contest are asking for one single factor to overcome a significant brand advantage to Labour, at the same time as the Tory brand is ruined - not by toxic actions in my view (I really don't see them as having done too much in this parliament that is reprehensible, there's just been quite a bit of incompetence), but by the rise of UKIP taking too much away from that brand, leaving not enough behind.
Here we go on Newmark story...been sexting another woman apparently. Question is, is woman #2 real or no? He has got lucky, as it seems a footballer has been doing the same.
twitter.com/suttonnick/status/521043377463508994
The contrast between the two is amazingly funny. On one side its like "hello" and on the other "I'm cool".
I think that there is widespread dissatisfaction with the electoral system (though I am not convinced this is new). It is like the House of Lords: everyone agrees that it is not suited to purpose or to the modern world. It is nepotistic and full of patronage and anachronism. It is possible to get a place through connections to the party elite. No one wants it how it is.
But fixing our broken system is like fixing the HoL. No one agrees what it should look like. Even the kippers do not speak with one voice, and they have the support of only 25% max of the population.
A little piece of news from North Britain those of you in Englandshire will not hear about.
As you may have seen on Twitter the SNP membership has risen from 25,000 to over 80,000 since 18th September. Apparently the Scottish Greens membership has tripled to over 6,000 and today former SNP MSP for Highlands John Finnie was unveiled at the Greens conference as their newest recruit. He will remain an Independent MSP until 2016 and then plans to stand for the Greens. A former leader of Highland Council, he was a police dog handler when I knew him 30 years ago.
As the increased SNP support threatens SLAB, so the increased Green support threatens what will be left of the Scottish LibDems in seats like Edinburgh West and Fife NE where there are reasonable numbers of students.
You will have to explain to me why the students won't vote LD. Didn't tuition fees remain the same in Scotland?
They don't pay tuition fees......
Exactly. so why does EasterRoss think that the presence of students is likely to be a problem for the Lib Dems?
David Cameron won't have made it to the petty anti Miliband swipe. His bowels would have emptied at the headline.
Cameron is as good as out.
LOL. If that is a "petty swipe", please tell us what a serious indictment of Miliband's leadership would look like. And, while you are there, whether there are American tanks in Baghdad?
"Cameron is as good as out" - do you mean he is going to be deposed? Care to indicate when, roughly?
7th May dude. It's coming.
We go through this rigmarole with every Sunday Times front page. A weekly petty personal Ed swipe there translates as bad YouGov poll on inside pages for the Tories.
I think that there is widespread dissatisfaction with the electoral system (though I am not convinced this is new). It is like the House of Lords: everyone agrees that it is not suited to purpose or to the modern world. It is nepotistic and full of patronage and anachronism. It is possible to get a place through connections to the party elite. No one wants it how it is.
But fixing our broken system is like fixing the HoL. No one agrees what it should look like. Even the kippers do not speak with one voice, and they have the support of only 25% max of the population.
A fair comment I think. I suppose then my position is that 'the people' do not care enough to a coalesce around an actual solution to their dissatisfaction because they cannot agree on what that solution might be, and things are not so bad it is worth rushing things, so although not their intention, 'the people' are in effect endorsing the status quo for the forseeable future.
A little piece of news from North Britain those of you in Englandshire will not hear about.
As you may have seen on Twitter the SNP membership has risen from 25,000 to over 80,000 since 18th September. Apparently the Scottish Greens membership has tripled to over 6,000 and today former SNP MSP for Highlands John Finnie was unveiled at the Greens conference as their newest recruit. He will remain an Independent MSP until 2016 and then plans to stand for the Greens. A former leader of Highland Council, he was a police dog handler when I knew him 30 years ago.
As the increased SNP support threatens SLAB, so the increased Green support threatens what will be left of the Scottish LibDems in seats like Edinburgh West and Fife NE where there are reasonable numbers of students.
You will have to explain to me why the students won't vote LD. Didn't tuition fees remain the same in Scotland?
They don't pay tuition fees......
Exactly. so why does EasterRoss think that the presence of students is likely to be a problem for the Lib Dems?
It's not cool on Campus to vote LD anymore. I hear they're the same as Tories you know.
David Cameron won't have made it to the petty anti Miliband swipe. His bowels would have emptied at the headline.
Cameron is as good as out.
LOL. If that is a "petty swipe", please tell us what a serious indictment of Miliband's leadership would look like. And, while you are there, whether there are American tanks in Baghdad?
"Cameron is as good as out" - do you mean he is going to be deposed? Care to indicate when, roughly?
7th May dude. It's coming.
We go through this rigmarole with every Sunday Times front page. A weekly petty personal Ed swipe there translates as bad YouGov poll on inside pages for the Tories.
I think the main difference between tonight's polls is their timing, yougov need about 2-3 days to absorb events, opinium started the poll early in the week, I think Survation might be the only one to have shown the effects of the by-election results.
A new poll reveals today that voters judge Miliband to be almost as bad a leader as Foot, who led the party to its worst modern defeat in 1983.
Twenty-two per cent of voters think Miliband better than Foot, while 21% favour Foot. Twenty per cent say they are about the same. By clear margins Miliband is seen as a worse leader than Gordon Brown or Neil Kinnock.
By a margin of nine to one, voters think Labour would be better off without Miliband. Fifty-four per cent say Labour would fare better if he goes while just 6% say the party would benefit from him staying.
Labour voters also think the party would be better off if he quits, by a margin of 46% to 13%. David Miliband, Alan Johnson and Andy Burnham, the shadow health secretary, would all improve the party’s prospects, the poll found.
So...who was the first person here to get on the UKIP/LD match bet? I just about got better than evens. isam probably got something sickening like 3/1.
Oh well, off to bet on every constituency isam has ever mentioned!
Unfortunately not!
I have no betting accounts, so am only on that match bet with @Antifrank and @Neil on here I think at 6/4... possibly @DavidL as well, I have it written down somewhere
On over 10% with a few on here as well at 6/4, but only for £300 I think
For all my mouth, I am not really on that many constituencies either! Just the two Thurrocks in any size, and a few £20 bets on some outsiders.. Telford, Birmingham Yardley, Dudley North, Cambourne and Redruth, North Devon
When Farage is PM next May, the PB Headline may well be "Sam didn't win as much as he ought to have"
David Cameron won't have made it to the petty anti Miliband swipe. His bowels would have emptied at the headline.
Cameron is as good as out.
LOL. If that is a "petty swipe", please tell us what a serious indictment of Miliband's leadership would look like. And, while you are there, whether there are American tanks in Baghdad?
"Cameron is as good as out" - do you mean he is going to be deposed? Care to indicate when, roughly?
7th May dude. It's coming.
We go through this rigmarole with every Sunday Times front page. A weekly petty personal Ed swipe there translates as bad YouGov poll on inside pages for the Tories.
UKIP is the frankenstein's monster of the Tory press and it is hilarious watching the sheer unadulterated panic in these organs now their creation is out of their control!
And running amok in the Labour heartlands.
And losing. No prizes for 2nd place under FPTP.
Impressed with the Labour performance were you?
A 600 majority in a safe seat and run out of town in Clacton, though of course we should point out that Labour have given up in the South.
One Nation rules eh?
It's a Labour MP and not a hapless UKIP one.
Yes, I'm pleased.
Talking of hapless did you see the Pilgrim's victory speech?
And I am pleased that you are pleased because it shows that you and Labour supporters like you have learnt the square root of fuck all.
I've learned UKIP are very good at coming 2nd to Labour in northern seats. Especially in low turnout elections.
Net result there so far: Zero UKIP MPs.
It was net everywhere zero UKIP MPs until last week.
I was derided a few weeks back for saying that they would win 10 seats in GE 2015, now thats almost a given.
Where UKIP will hurt you lot isn't in the northern inner cities, its in more marginal northern constituencies like Bury North where tories have a 3000 maj in 2010 and Bury South where Lab had a 3000 majority in 2010.
Miliband needs to win both those seats and many seats like them to have any chance of winning the election. Thanks to Labour losing the WWC to UKIP the tories will hold Bury north and may well win them both.
"Given", is it? £50 evens that UKIP do not get 10 seats?
Do you mean to say that you think UKIP will get more than 10 seats, JohnO?
A little piece of news from North Britain those of you in Englandshire will not hear about.
As you may have seen on Twitter the SNP membership has risen from 25,000 to over 80,000 since 18th September. Apparently the Scottish Greens membership has tripled to over 6,000 and today former SNP MSP for Highlands John Finnie was unveiled at the Greens conference as their newest recruit. He will remain an Independent MSP until 2016 and then plans to stand for the Greens. A former leader of Highland Council, he was a police dog handler when I knew him 30 years ago.
As the increased SNP support threatens SLAB, so the increased Green support threatens what will be left of the Scottish LibDems in seats like Edinburgh West and Fife NE where there are reasonable numbers of students.
Are the Scottish Conservatives benefiting from this new fashion for joining political parties?
David Cameron won't have made it to the petty anti Miliband swipe. His bowels would have emptied at the headline.
Cameron is as good as out.
LOL. If that is a "petty swipe", please tell us what a serious indictment of Miliband's leadership would look like. And, while you are there, whether there are American tanks in Baghdad?
"Cameron is as good as out" - do you mean he is going to be deposed? Care to indicate when, roughly?
7th May dude. It's coming.
We go through this rigmarole with every Sunday Times front page. A weekly petty personal Ed swipe there translates as bad YouGov poll on inside pages for the Tories.
Except that 2 behind, with solid confirmation that it isn't an outlier, would have looked an exceptional yougov for the Tories only three weeks ago.
As for the petty swipe, give up. Everyone accepts that ed is crap after the conference speech. Your own claim that the Tories are trying to make things presidential is code for: OK ed is crap, but no one is allowed to say so.
And for god's sake chill. No one of any intelligence at all thinks it is remotely possible to predict the outcome of the election, and you getting all messianic on our asses is not going to alter that belief, or the actual result.
And do read the Danczuk piece which I would bet my shirt you would classify as "reactionary wibble" from any other source.
Went up to Dahlonega for lunch at our favorite Cajun restaurant and to watch some college football on TV. After lunch we toured the various antique malls, full of oddlots of furniture, LP records, recycled John Grisham hardbacks, and the inevitable wall of fridge magnets.
Favorite one - WINE - how classy people get wasted
I think that there is widespread dissatisfaction with the electoral system (though I am not convinced this is new). It is like the House of Lords: everyone agrees that it is not suited to purpose or to the modern world. It is nepotistic and full of patronage and anachronism. It is possible to get a place through connections to the party elite. No one wants it how it is.
But fixing our broken system is like fixing the HoL. No one agrees what it should look like. Even the kippers do not speak with one voice, and they have the support of only 25% max of the population.
A fair comment I think. I suppose then my position is that 'the people' do not care enough to a coalesce around an actual solution to their dissatisfaction because they cannot agree on what that solution might be, and things are not so bad it is worth rushing things, so although not their intention, 'the people' are in effect endorsing the status quo for the forseeable future.
I agree. It is possible that in an atmosphere of discontent that we carry on muddling on in quiet desperation (that is the English way).
There is the risk of a charismatic leader presenting temptingly simplistic solutions. This is more of a european approach such as Golden Dawn. For some Islamism fills that gap...
Also, they spent loads on the NHS last time they were in .... that went well didn't it.......
Also, where does the money come from this time???
It did go very well record low waiting lists and times. People seem to forget prior to 1997 one third of waits were over 6 months. 90% under 18 weeks in 2010
Record high patient satisfaction. Waits for PB Tory Stafford references but patient satisfaction overall was up at 95% levels.
Money comes from Mansion tax this time and by not giving tax cuts to higher rate tax payers
David Cameron won't have made it to the petty anti Miliband swipe. His bowels would have emptied at the headline.
Cameron is as good as out.
LOL. If that is a "petty swipe", please tell us what a serious indictment of Miliband's leadership would look like. And, while you are there, whether there are American tanks in Baghdad?
"Cameron is as good as out" - do you mean he is going to be deposed? Care to indicate when, roughly?
7th May dude. It's coming.
We go through this rigmarole with every Sunday Times front page. A weekly petty personal Ed swipe there translates as bad YouGov poll on inside pages for the Tories.
I think that there is widespread dissatisfaction with the electoral system (though I am not convinced this is new). It is like the House of Lords: everyone agrees that it is not suited to purpose or to the modern world. It is nepotistic and full of patronage and anachronism. It is possible to get a place through connections to the party elite. No one wants it how it is.
But fixing our broken system is like fixing the HoL. No one agrees what it should look like. Even the kippers do not speak with one voice, and they have the support of only 25% max of the population.
A fair comment I think. I suppose then my position is that 'the people' do not care enough to a coalesce around an actual solution to their dissatisfaction because they cannot agree on what that solution might be, and things are not so bad it is worth rushing things, so although not their intention, 'the people' are in effect endorsing the status quo for the forseeable future.
That I suspect is an answer that is nearer the truth. Sadly there are probably almost as many favoured solutions as people in favour of change. A national debate would be good to have but I fear unlikely to happen as it would have to be promulgated by politicians and I expect they would not want to give it a free run but instead impose a range of "solutions" to choose from rather than a rebuild from scratch strategy. Looks like we are stuck in the 17th century a while longer
Also, they spent loads on the NHS last time they were in .... that went well didn't it.......
Also, where does the money come from this time???
It did go very well record low waiting lists and times. People seem to forget prior to 1997 one third of waits were over 6 months. 90% under 18 weeks in 2010
Record high patient satisfaction. Waits for PB Tory Stafford references but patient satisfaction overall was up at 95% levels.
Money comes from Mansion tax this time and by not giving tax cuts to higher rate tax payers
Suppose the 1,200 in Staffs didn't get the chance to vote
Comments
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BzsXSUyCYAEV3rz.jpg
Janet Daley thinks that? Well I never!
Which Party lost an MP on Thurs? Which is about to lose another next month? And potentially more after that?
Not Labour, if anyone wants a clue.
"The political classes may benefit from immigration with cheap au pairs and cleaners, but people in my part of the world cannot afford au pairs or cleaners.
Ed Miliband may feel uncomfortable at talking about immigration because he’s the son of immigrants.
Well, I’m sorry, but he has no choice but to grasp the nettle."
So that's edm and danczuk scared witless by H&M, and BenM unconcerned. Whose judgment to trust?
LOL at this in ed's piece. the real villain of the piece is still of course FATCHA:
"I recognise Ukip is also tapping into a seam of discontent and despair that Labour cannot – and will not – ignore. It is a sentiment that has developed over decades during which industries that used to provide decent prospects have disappeared at the same time as immigration has wrought huge changes in some communities."
Survation/MoS poll puts UKIP on 25%. Lab 31% Con 31% LibDem 8%. Which in theory gives UKIP 128 MPs. #FarageMania
I leave for an hour and look what happens.
Farage for PM anyone?
Cameron is as good as out.
Which is why Kippers ARE banging on about how close it was.
Which Party lost an MP on Thurs? Which is about to lose another next month? And potentially more after that?
Not Labour, if anyone wants a clue.
Forget about childish tribal politics, what do you really think? I mean you Ben, not the spinning bollocks you delight in.
Are you happy with Ed? With abandoning your core vote? With the fact that the WWC have left Labour forever?
No spinning shit as we will see right through it, answer honestly in the way Danny always does.
Would you care to point out the party that has ever stood on a platform of completely reforming the political system? (Hint the lib dems are not an acceptable answer they like the current system and just want to tweak it a bit more into their favour)
People still vote for these parties because they have no other choice if they wish to vote. Its all thats on offer. Others have taken an ever bigger slice of the cake even so. Many constituencies are like mine however and have only 3 contenders, we didnt had a green or ukip candidate even in 2010 just 3 parties on the ballot.
I resent not voting but in 2015 I probably won't bother
CON 31% =
LAB -31% -4
UKIP 25% +6
LD 8%=
Oh well, off to bet on every constituency isam has ever mentioned!
Baxtered
Lab 319
Con 278
LD 22
UKIP 2
That says it all about the computer models based on 2010GE.
Are you happy with Ed? With abandoning your core vote? With the fact that the WWC have left Labour forever?
No spinning shit as we will see right through it, answer honestly in the way Danny always does.
I want the Tories out of government. This is a parliamentary democracy. The Tories are desperate to turn this into a quite un-British presidential contest, but the public ain't buying it.
I may not be wholly enamoured of the leader of the Labour Party, but I relate to the values and ethos of the Labour Party itself which I feel are superior to those of the Tories (and no doubt many here feel the exact opposite which I at least respect), and massively more in touch with planet earth than the wretched reactionary wibblings from your lot.
Therefore, even though people moan about our system, I cannot agree they are really that angry about it, not to the point of even being close to sharing your own view on radical redevelopment of our politics (which for the record I would not be averse to, or at the least not averse to seeing more of a national debate about) as being a good idea, or we'd see some sign of it either in a new party advocating it, or major parts within the main parties sharing that view and pressing for such a position. There is nothing but glimmers.
If the voter turnout were in terminal decline then maybe I could concede that people were making their views know that way, but it isn't. It's not as high as it could be, but it went up last time and who knows this time, so people are not simply disengaging from our very system even if fewer are actually joining political parties (unless you are the SNP or Scottis Greens I guess).
I may not be wholly enamoured of the leader of the Labour Party, but I relate to the values and ethos of the Labour Party itself which I feel are superior to those of the Tories (and no doubt many here feel the exact opposite which I at least respect), and massively more in touch with planet earth than the wretched reactionary wibblings from your lot.
Fair enough, thanks.
I couldn't disagree more but that's not the point.
Also, they spent loads on the NHS last time they were in .... that went well didn't it.......
Also, where does the money come from this time???
"Cameron is as good as out" - do you mean he is going to be deposed? Care to indicate when, roughly?
the election is all about the Tory/UKIP dynamic.
If Miliband gets in it will be the biggest accident ever. Even his own people don't really want it.
For sheer comedy value, I'd love to see the Scottish Sub-sample showing UKIP 37%, Con 20% LD 15% SNP 10% SLAB 10%
Withdrawal from the EU
Federalisation of the UK
Abolition of the House Of Lords
Abolition of whole Government departments (DCMS & Climate Change & Energy)
Resolution of the English Question (and reforming Barnett devolving taxation powers to the home nations)
Devolution of powers from central Government Departments to county and local level (Monitor, CQC, creation of Grammar Schools etc)
Introduction of direct democracy over planning applications.
I suspect there would be further decentralisation over an extended period but you can only absorb a certain amount of change at any one time
I may not be wholly enamoured of the leader of the Labour Party, but I relate to the values and ethos of the Labour Party itself which I feel are superior to those of the Tories (and no doubt many here feel the exact opposite which I at least respect), and massively more in touch with planet earth than the wretched reactionary wibblings from your lot.
While I personally do not particularly see the Labour Party as being superior in values or ethos as any of the other parties, not least because the parties leap all around the spectrum thesedays so there is not much consistency of values from any of them if they feel there are votes in it, and I scoff at the laziness of Labour arguments on being more in touch than the Tories (or at least the extent of it) without much evidence of differentiation from the Tories in background, style or many policies that would indicate such a sizable gap...I would actually agree that by and large most people, or at least the larger amount of people, do to one degree or another feel the same way regarding Labour being more in touch and having superior values re ordinary people, and those pinning hopes on a presidential contest are asking for one single factor to overcome a significant brand advantage to Labour, at the same time as the Tory brand is ruined - not by toxic actions in my view (I really don't see them as having done too much in this parliament that is reprehensible, there's just been quite a bit of incompetence), but by the rise of UKIP taking too much away from that brand, leaving not enough behind.
oh dear......................
On one side its like "hello" and on the other "I'm cool".
I think that there is widespread dissatisfaction with the electoral system (though I am not convinced this is new). It is like the House of Lords: everyone agrees that it is not suited to purpose or to the modern world. It is nepotistic and full of patronage and anachronism. It is possible to get a place through connections to the party elite. No one wants it how it is.
But fixing our broken system is like fixing the HoL. No one agrees what it should look like. Even the kippers do not speak with one voice, and they have the support of only 25% max of the population.
Ed will get 253 MPs with that and libs 11
Tories will get 187 & UKIP 128 which between them is 315. Add in the DUP and you have a majority.
We go through this rigmarole with every Sunday Times front page. A weekly petty personal Ed swipe there translates as bad YouGov poll on inside pages for the Tories.
http://electionsetc.com/
Their latest forecast, Tories 27 short of majority
The Sunil on Sunday ELBOW should be "interesting" this week
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/oct/11/ed-miliband-labour-hope-for-britains-future?CMP=twt_gu
What border controls? Tell us, please. Because I'm pretty sure he's lying out his arse.
It will be interesting to see where UKIP will be with ICM this month, 9% last time.
A new poll reveals today that voters judge Miliband to be almost as bad a leader as Foot, who led the party to its worst modern defeat in 1983.
Twenty-two per cent of voters think Miliband better than Foot, while 21% favour Foot. Twenty per cent say they are about the same. By clear margins Miliband is seen as a worse leader than Gordon Brown or Neil Kinnock.
By a margin of nine to one, voters think Labour would be better off without Miliband. Fifty-four per cent say Labour would fare better if he goes while just 6% say the party would benefit from him staying.
Labour voters also think the party would be better off if he quits, by a margin of 46% to 13%. David Miliband, Alan Johnson and Andy Burnham, the shadow health secretary, would all improve the party’s prospects, the poll found.
I have no betting accounts, so am only on that match bet with @Antifrank and @Neil on here I think at 6/4... possibly @DavidL as well, I have it written down somewhere
On over 10% with a few on here as well at 6/4, but only for £300 I think
For all my mouth, I am not really on that many constituencies either! Just the two Thurrocks in any size, and a few £20 bets on some outsiders.. Telford, Birmingham Yardley, Dudley North, Cambourne and Redruth, North Devon
When Farage is PM next May, the PB Headline may well be "Sam didn't win as much as he ought to have"
Detailed data from Survation for Southern England has UKIP on 37.6% four pts ahead of the Tories
If no deal on West Lothian Question by Nov 30, the Conservatives will end talks and develop their own plans, William Hague tells me. 2/3
Christopher Hope @christopherhope
Hague says the Tories will put their EVEL solution to a vote before the election. Labour will have to vote against English home rule. 3/3
Survation/MoS poll has 30.3% of men backing UKIP compared with 18.9% of women
As for the petty swipe, give up. Everyone accepts that ed is crap after the conference speech. Your own claim that the Tories are trying to make things presidential is code for: OK ed is crap, but no one is allowed to say so.
And for god's sake chill. No one of any intelligence at all thinks it is remotely possible to predict the outcome of the election, and you getting all messianic on our asses is not going to alter that belief, or the actual result.
And do read the Danczuk piece which I would bet my shirt you would classify as "reactionary wibble" from any other source.
Favorite one - WINE - how classy people get wasted
There is the risk of a charismatic leader presenting temptingly simplistic solutions. This is more of a european approach such as Golden Dawn. For some Islamism fills that gap...
Record high patient satisfaction. Waits for PB Tory Stafford references but patient satisfaction overall was up at 95% levels.
Money comes from Mansion tax this time and by not giving tax cuts to higher rate tax payers
Anyway nonsense poll.
Kipperlandia?
Lab 232
Con 232
UKIP 151
LD 16