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Will CON MPs back a suspension move on Johnson? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited March 2023 in General
imageWill CON MPs back a suspension move on Johnson? – politicalbetting.com

The above betting market on whether there will be an Uxbridge by-election is just about the one place at the moment where you can take a punt on Boris Johnson’s political future. He of course is the sitting MP here.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,096
    edited March 2023
    Good morning all. Thank you to Mike.

    It's an interesting saga this. Johnson isn't helping his cause among parliamentary colleagues, with whom he already had less support than in the red wall seats.

    However, suppose he is defenestrated at Uxbridge? He might stage a comeback in a safer seat? Especially after the crushing Conservative General Election defeat which is coming.

    My guess is that he's a busted flush. He wasn't suited to the job of PM anyway.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    A distant second. The Man United of PB.

    Probably not a by-election, although one can probably imagine he stands down at the general election.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,080
    edited March 2023
    The clown must go. Both for his misdeeds and as a symbol of better politics to come.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,957
    Heathener said:

    Good morning all. Thank you to Mike.

    It's an interesting saga this. Johnson isn't helping his cause among parliamentary colleagues, with whom he already had less support than in the red wall seats.

    However, suppose he is defenestrated at Uxbridge? He might stage a comeback in a safer seat? Especially after the crushing Conservative General Election defeat which is coming.

    My guess is that he's a busted flush. He wasn't suited to the job of PM anyway.

    He only comes back in a safer seat if he is an approved Conservative candidate. He can be quietly told he won't be.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good morning, everyone.

    Let's hope the fool departs the stage sooner rather than later.

    F1: post-race ramble, for those who missed it yesterday:
    https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2023/03/bahrain-post-race-ramble-2023.html
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    Boris out! Or has Keir Starmer saved him by employing Sue Gray?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,733

    Boris out! Or has Keir Starmer saved him by employing Sue Gray?

    ’Johnson out’ would be better but sounds more like his motto for behaviour around women.

    I’m all in favour of him having a suspended sentence…
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    dixiedean said:

    I see he's nominated his Dad for a knighthood.
    This isn't the done thing at all.

    Boris has already given his brother a peerage, so what's new?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,042
    dixiedean said:

    I see he's nominated his Dad for a knighthood.
    This isn't the done thing at all.

    I'm surprised at that - his Dad doesn't seem to like him much.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,009
    dixiedean said:

    I see he's nominated his Dad for a knighthood.
    This isn't the done thing at all.

    Would we know if he nominated some of his children for honours?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,733
    Chris said:

    dixiedean said:

    I see he's nominated his Dad for a knighthood.
    This isn't the done thing at all.

    Would we know if he nominated some of his children for honours?
    Would he know they are his children?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,085
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    I see he's nominated his Dad for a knighthood.
    This isn't the done thing at all.

    Boris has already given his brother a peerage, so what's new?
    He has.
    Although his brother was at least an MP and Minister, so could be argued a political appointment.
    This kind of grift is why he needs to go.
    Johnson senior was an MEP, long long ago.

    Maybe that's why Boris turned out Eurosceptic.

    Another question- when this comes to a vote, how many Conservative MPs would vote against Boris? It would only need thirtysomething and he's toast.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,957

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    I see he's nominated his Dad for a knighthood.
    This isn't the done thing at all.

    Boris has already given his brother a peerage, so what's new?
    He has.
    Although his brother was at least an MP and Minister, so could be argued a political appointment.
    This kind of grift is why he needs to go.
    Johnson senior was an MEP, long long ago.

    Maybe that's why Boris turned out Eurosceptic.

    Another question- when this comes to a vote, how many Conservative MPs would vote against Boris? It would only need thirtysomething and he's toast.
    I think it is easily mustered. There were always a sizeable number of MPs who were anti-Boris, even as he was getting them an 80 seat majority as PM. True, the ranks were significantly thinned by the defectors and unselected and standing downers in 2019, but those who will vote to suspend will be into three figures.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,733

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    I see he's nominated his Dad for a knighthood.
    This isn't the done thing at all.

    Boris has already given his brother a peerage, so what's new?
    He has.
    Although his brother was at least an MP and Minister, so could be argued a political appointment.
    This kind of grift is why he needs to go.
    Johnson senior was an MEP, long long ago.

    Maybe that's why Boris turned out Eurosceptic.

    Another question- when this comes to a vote, how many Conservative MPs would vote against Boris? It would only need thirtysomething and he's toast.
    That is, of course, assuming the party hierarchy doesn't move against him. If Sunak whipped the vote, or even allowed a free vote but said he would vote for Johnson's suspension, the equation then becomes he needs 90% of the PCP to rebel and back him.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,733
    Has Buttler been taking lessons from Shane Watson and Stuart Broad in how to review?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    dixiedean said:

    I see he's nominated his Dad for a knighthood.
    This isn't the done thing at all.

    The Times reports that the former prime minister, who left office last September, has nominated Stanley Johnson for the honour. A spokesperson for Boris Johnson said: “We don’t comment on honours.”

    The PA news agency has contacted Stanley Johnson for comment.

    The paper said that the former prime minister’s list of nominations included up to 100 names and was “considerably longer” than that of his predecessors Theresa May and David Cameron. The list is currently going through Cabinet Office vetting.

    Any honour for Stanley Johnson would raise questions for the former Conservative leader. He has previously faced accusations of cronyism in 2020, after he nominated his brother, Jo Johnson, for a peerage.


    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/mar/05/boris-johnson-nominates-father-for-a-knighthood
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,733
    Dear me Bangladesh, that was a bit needless.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762
    ydoethur said:

    Has Buttler been taking lessons from Shane Watson and Stuart Broad in how to review?

    Real time I thought that was out. The amount of turn young Ahmed got was remarkable. It was in line for off stump and missed leg.

    Now gifted a wicket.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,733
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Has Buttler been taking lessons from Shane Watson and Stuart Broad in how to review?

    Real time I thought that was out. The amount of turn young Ahmed got was remarkable. It was in line for off stump and missed leg.

    Now gifted a wicket.
    Still on course for 280 though.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,733
    edited March 2023

    dixiedean said:

    I see he's nominated his Dad for a knighthood.
    This isn't the done thing at all.

    I'm surprised at that - his Dad doesn't seem to like him much.
    He's met him.
    Your reminder that Starmer and Johnson's fathers had very different occupations.

    One of them made tools, and the other worked in manufacturing precision instruments.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762
    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Has Buttler been taking lessons from Shane Watson and Stuart Broad in how to review?

    Real time I thought that was out. The amount of turn young Ahmed got was remarkable. It was in line for off stump and missed leg.

    Now gifted a wicket.
    Still on course for 280 though.
    Maybe. That was a very good partnership. Lets see if those coming after can match it. My guess on the series to date is that they will fade a bit. Maybe 240.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,733
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    Has Buttler been taking lessons from Shane Watson and Stuart Broad in how to review?

    Real time I thought that was out. The amount of turn young Ahmed got was remarkable. It was in line for off stump and missed leg.

    Now gifted a wicket.
    Still on course for 280 though.
    Maybe. That was a very good partnership. Lets see if those coming after can match it. My guess on the series to date is that they will fade a bit. Maybe 240.
    If they get 350 after that I'm blaming you.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    I see he's nominated his Dad for a knighthood.
    This isn't the done thing at all.

    Boris has already given his brother a peerage, so what's new?
    He has.
    Although his brother was at least an MP and Minister, so could be argued a political appointment.
    This kind of grift is why he needs to go.
    Johnson senior was an MEP, long long ago.

    Maybe that's why Boris turned out Eurosceptic.

    Another question- when this comes to a vote, how many Conservative MPs would vote against Boris? It would only need thirtysomething and he's toast.
    I think it is easily mustered. There were always a sizeable number of MPs who were anti-Boris, even as he was getting them an 80 seat majority as PM. True, the ranks were significantly thinned by the defectors and unselected and standing downers in 2019, but those who will vote to suspend will be into three figures.
    Can we stop this crap about Johnson getting the Tories and 80 majority. He was facing Corbyn which is hardly a big deal. Arguably he should have done better.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,085
    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    I see he's nominated his Dad for a knighthood.
    This isn't the done thing at all.

    Boris has already given his brother a peerage, so what's new?
    He has.
    Although his brother was at least an MP and Minister, so could be argued a political appointment.
    This kind of grift is why he needs to go.
    Johnson senior was an MEP, long long ago.

    Maybe that's why Boris turned out Eurosceptic.

    Another question- when this comes to a vote, how many Conservative MPs would vote against Boris? It would only need thirtysomething and he's toast.
    That is, of course, assuming the party hierarchy doesn't move against him. If Sunak whipped the vote, or even allowed a free vote but said he would vote for Johnson's suspension, the equation then becomes he needs 90% of the PCP to rebel and back him.
    Though whipping Boris out would send the Blue Momentum wing of the party utterly batso.

    If I were a Conservative MP, fearful of both my activists and my constituents, I'd be looking for an urgent meeting far from Westminster that day. Or a note from my mum, saying I can't do voting because I have a verruca.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,733

    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    I see he's nominated his Dad for a knighthood.
    This isn't the done thing at all.

    Boris has already given his brother a peerage, so what's new?
    He has.
    Although his brother was at least an MP and Minister, so could be argued a political appointment.
    This kind of grift is why he needs to go.
    Johnson senior was an MEP, long long ago.

    Maybe that's why Boris turned out Eurosceptic.

    Another question- when this comes to a vote, how many Conservative MPs would vote against Boris? It would only need thirtysomething and he's toast.
    That is, of course, assuming the party hierarchy doesn't move against him. If Sunak whipped the vote, or even allowed a free vote but said he would vote for Johnson's suspension, the equation then becomes he needs 90% of the PCP to rebel and back him.
    Though whipping Boris out would send the Blue Momentum wing of the party utterly batso.

    If I were a Conservative MP, fearful of both my activists and my constituents, I'd be looking for an urgent meeting far from Westminster that day. Or a note from my mum, saying I can't do voting because I have a verruca.
    They already are. Whatever happens, that won't change.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762
    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    I see he's nominated his Dad for a knighthood.
    This isn't the done thing at all.

    Boris has already given his brother a peerage, so what's new?
    He has.
    Although his brother was at least an MP and Minister, so could be argued a political appointment.
    This kind of grift is why he needs to go.
    Johnson senior was an MEP, long long ago.

    Maybe that's why Boris turned out Eurosceptic.

    Another question- when this comes to a vote, how many Conservative MPs would vote against Boris? It would only need thirtysomething and he's toast.
    I think it is easily mustered. There were always a sizeable number of MPs who were anti-Boris, even as he was getting them an 80 seat majority as PM. True, the ranks were significantly thinned by the defectors and unselected and standing downers in 2019, but those who will vote to suspend will be into three figures.
    Can we stop this crap about Johnson getting the Tories and 80 majority. He was facing Corbyn which is hardly a big deal. Arguably he should have done better.
    It should be remembered though that a belief Corbyn was unelectable didn't exactly work for Theresa May, who was on paper at least in a much stronger position at the time.

    True, she didn't have Corbyn's extraordinary response to Salisbury, his convoluted position on the EU to help or such widespread evidence of his racism to play with, but she still very nearly lost.
    And he managed to significantly increase the vote of a party that had already been in office for 9 years. That is seriously unusual.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,735
    ...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,733
    edited March 2023
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    I see he's nominated his Dad for a knighthood.
    This isn't the done thing at all.

    Boris has already given his brother a peerage, so what's new?
    He has.
    Although his brother was at least an MP and Minister, so could be argued a political appointment.
    This kind of grift is why he needs to go.
    Johnson senior was an MEP, long long ago.

    Maybe that's why Boris turned out Eurosceptic.

    Another question- when this comes to a vote, how many Conservative MPs would vote against Boris? It would only need thirtysomething and he's toast.
    I think it is easily mustered. There were always a sizeable number of MPs who were anti-Boris, even as he was getting them an 80 seat majority as PM. True, the ranks were significantly thinned by the defectors and unselected and standing downers in 2019, but those who will vote to suspend will be into three figures.
    Can we stop this crap about Johnson getting the Tories and 80 majority. He was facing Corbyn which is hardly a big deal. Arguably he should have done better.
    It should be remembered though that a belief Corbyn was unelectable didn't exactly work for Theresa May, who was on paper at least in a much stronger position at the time.

    True, she didn't have Corbyn's extraordinary response to Salisbury, his convoluted position on the EU to help or such widespread evidence of his racism to play with, but she still very nearly lost.
    And he managed to significantly increase the vote of a party that had already been in office for 9 years. That is seriously unusual.
    It was the first general election where an incumbent government which had seen its majority reduced at a previous election increased its majority since 1865, the first time ever a government of more than eight years' standing had increased its majority, and the highest voteshare for any single winning party since 1979.

    Admittedly, the circumstances were something of a perfect storm, but it was still remarkable and unusual.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,564
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    I see he's nominated his Dad for a knighthood.
    This isn't the done thing at all.

    Boris has already given his brother a peerage, so what's new?
    He has.
    Although his brother was at least an MP and Minister, so could be argued a political appointment.
    This kind of grift is why he needs to go.
    Johnson senior was an MEP, long long ago.

    Maybe that's why Boris turned out Eurosceptic.

    Another question- when this comes to a vote, how many Conservative MPs would vote against Boris? It would only need thirtysomething and he's toast.
    I think it is easily mustered. There were always a sizeable number of MPs who were anti-Boris, even as he was getting them an 80 seat majority as PM. True, the ranks were significantly thinned by the defectors and unselected and standing downers in 2019, but those who will vote to suspend will be into three figures.
    Can we stop this crap about Johnson getting the Tories and 80 majority. He was facing Corbyn which is hardly a big deal. Arguably he should have done better.
    It should be remembered though that a belief Corbyn was unelectable didn't exactly work for Theresa May, who was on paper at least in a much stronger position at the time.

    True, she didn't have Corbyn's extraordinary response to Salisbury, his convoluted position on the EU to help or such widespread evidence of his racism to play with, but she still very nearly lost.
    And he managed to significantly increase the vote of a party that had already been in office for 9 years. That is seriously unusual.
    While true, Mike has a point.
    The circumstances of 2019 were extremely unusual.

    There really isn't the room now to present a simplistic solution to the UK's problems in such a manner and have more than a small minority if the electorate believe you. Even less so if you're the one that fooled them last time around.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    I see he's nominated his Dad for a knighthood.
    This isn't the done thing at all.

    Boris has already given his brother a peerage, so what's new?
    He has.
    Although his brother was at least an MP and Minister, so could be argued a political appointment.
    This kind of grift is why he needs to go.
    Johnson senior was an MEP, long long ago.

    Maybe that's why Boris turned out Eurosceptic.

    Another question- when this comes to a vote, how many Conservative MPs would vote against Boris? It would only need thirtysomething and he's toast.
    I think it is easily mustered. There were always a sizeable number of MPs who were anti-Boris, even as he was getting them an 80 seat majority as PM. True, the ranks were significantly thinned by the defectors and unselected and standing downers in 2019, but those who will vote to suspend will be into three figures.
    Can we stop this crap about Johnson getting the Tories and 80 majority. He was facing Corbyn which is hardly a big deal. Arguably he should have done better.
    It should be remembered though that a belief Corbyn was unelectable didn't exactly work for Theresa May, who was on paper at least in a much stronger position at the time.

    True, she didn't have Corbyn's extraordinary response to Salisbury, his convoluted position on the EU to help or such widespread evidence of his racism to play with, but she still very nearly lost.
    And he managed to significantly increase the vote of a party that had already been in office for 9 years. That is seriously unusual.
    Macmillan did much the same in 1959.

    Yes, I know that was 8 years.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,564
    Slotkin would be my tip to be the first woman elected President, if there were such a market.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/05/democrats-elections-states-00085524
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,392
    So Bozo nominated his brother for a peerage, his father for a knighthood and his wife for some new wallpaper.

    What a shitbag.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 9,151
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    I see he's nominated his Dad for a knighthood.
    This isn't the done thing at all.

    Boris has already given his brother a peerage, so what's new?
    He has.
    Although his brother was at least an MP and Minister, so could be argued a political appointment.
    This kind of grift is why he needs to go.
    Johnson senior was an MEP, long long ago.

    Maybe that's why Boris turned out Eurosceptic.

    Another question- when this comes to a vote, how many Conservative MPs would vote against Boris? It would only need thirtysomething and he's toast.
    I think it is easily mustered. There were always a sizeable number of MPs who were anti-Boris, even as he was getting them an 80 seat majority as PM. True, the ranks were significantly thinned by the defectors and unselected and standing downers in 2019, but those who will vote to suspend will be into three figures.
    Can we stop this crap about Johnson getting the Tories and 80 majority. He was facing Corbyn which is hardly a big deal. Arguably he should have done better.
    It should be remembered though that a belief Corbyn was unelectable didn't exactly work for Theresa May, who was on paper at least in a much stronger position at the time.

    True, she didn't have Corbyn's extraordinary response to Salisbury, his convoluted position on the EU to help or such widespread evidence of his racism to play with, but she still very nearly lost.
    And he managed to significantly increase the vote of a party that had already been in office for 9 years. That is seriously unusual.
    While true, Mike has a point.
    The circumstances of 2019 were extremely unusual.

    There really isn't the room now to present a simplistic solution to the UK's problems in such a manner and have more than a small minority if the electorate believe you. Even less so if you're the one that fooled them last time around.
    I reassure myself that this must surely the case. But then I see polls showing Trump beating Biden in a 2024 election and think “hmm”. Or recall the multiple times Berlusconi ascended the Italian throne even after being convicted under corruption charges.
  • So Bozo nominated his brother for a peerage, his father for a knighthood and his wife for some new wallpaper.

    What a shitbag.

    Absolutely. What's his wife done wrong?
  • Wow it wasn’t a dream.




  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,733

    So Bozo nominated his brother for a peerage, his father for a knighthood and his wife for some new wallpaper.

    What a shitbag.

    Absolutely. What's his wife done wrong?
    Which one?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,564
    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    I see he's nominated his Dad for a knighthood.
    This isn't the done thing at all.

    Boris has already given his brother a peerage, so what's new?
    He has.
    Although his brother was at least an MP and Minister, so could be argued a political appointment.
    This kind of grift is why he needs to go.
    Johnson senior was an MEP, long long ago.

    Maybe that's why Boris turned out Eurosceptic.

    Another question- when this comes to a vote, how many Conservative MPs would vote against Boris? It would only need thirtysomething and he's toast.
    I think it is easily mustered. There were always a sizeable number of MPs who were anti-Boris, even as he was getting them an 80 seat majority as PM. True, the ranks were significantly thinned by the defectors and unselected and standing downers in 2019, but those who will vote to suspend will be into three figures.
    Can we stop this crap about Johnson getting the Tories and 80 majority. He was facing Corbyn which is hardly a big deal. Arguably he should have done better.
    It should be remembered though that a belief Corbyn was unelectable didn't exactly work for Theresa May, who was on paper at least in a much stronger position at the time.

    True, she didn't have Corbyn's extraordinary response to Salisbury, his convoluted position on the EU to help or such widespread evidence of his racism to play with, but she still very nearly lost.
    And he managed to significantly increase the vote of a party that had already been in office for 9 years. That is seriously unusual.
    While true, Mike has a point.
    The circumstances of 2019 were extremely unusual.

    There really isn't the room now to present a simplistic solution to the UK's problems in such a manner and have more than a small minority if the electorate believe you. Even less so if you're the one that fooled them last time around.
    I reassure myself that this must surely the case. But then I see polls showing Trump beating Biden in a 2024 election and think “hmm”. Or recall the multiple times Berlusconi ascended the Italian throne even after being convicted under corruption charges.
    I look at the polls regarding satisfaction with Brexit.
    That is thing inextricably associated with Johnson, and it's not sortable on any timeframe which covers the next couple of general elections.

    There's a significant minority of the electorate who will continue to believe it justified come what may. For the rest, it will continue obviously to hamper solutions to the UK's structural problems.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 10,458
    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    I see he's nominated his Dad for a knighthood.
    This isn't the done thing at all.

    Boris has already given his brother a peerage, so what's new?
    He has.
    Although his brother was at least an MP and Minister, so could be argued a political appointment.
    This kind of grift is why he needs to go.
    Johnson senior was an MEP, long long ago.

    Maybe that's why Boris turned out Eurosceptic.

    Another question- when this comes to a vote, how many Conservative MPs would vote against Boris? It would only need thirtysomething and he's toast.
    I think it is easily mustered. There were always a sizeable number of MPs who were anti-Boris, even as he was getting them an 80 seat majority as PM. True, the ranks were significantly thinned by the defectors and unselected and standing downers in 2019, but those who will vote to suspend will be into three figures.
    Can we stop this crap about Johnson getting the Tories and 80 majority. He was facing Corbyn which is hardly a big deal. Arguably he should have done better.
    It should be remembered though that a belief Corbyn was unelectable didn't exactly work for Theresa May, who was on paper at least in a much stronger position at the time.

    True, she didn't have Corbyn's extraordinary response to Salisbury, his convoluted position on the EU to help or such widespread evidence of his racism to play with, but she still very nearly lost.
    I think you have to add 'Get Brexit Done' to the Corbyn factor for why Boris won in 2019.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,564
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,735
    kjh said:

    I think you have to add 'Get Brexit Done' to the Corbyn factor for why Boris won in 2019.

    And one day it might actually be done.

    I notice Nads was going on about Brexit last week.

    Jeez, these people just need to let it go and move on !!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    If not whipped I think a majority of Tory MPs would vote to suspend. But not a big majority of them.

    Because of that split I think Rishi gives in.

    Depends partly on how long a suspension. Under the threshold for a petition and maybe they'll allow a suspension.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164

    Wow it wasn’t a dream.




    Would have been funny had that been offside.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,957
    edited March 2023

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    I see he's nominated his Dad for a lol.....knighthood.
    This isn't the done thing at all.

    Boris has already given his brother a peerage, so what's new?
    He has.
    Although his brother was at least an MP and Minister, so could be argued a political appointment.
    This kind of grift is why he needs to go.
    Johnson senior was an MEP, long long ago.

    Maybe that's why Boris turned out Eurosceptic.

    Another question- when this comes to a vote, how many Conservative MPs would vote against Boris? It would only need thirtysomething and he's toast.
    I think it is easily mustered. There were always a sizeable number of MPs who were anti-Boris, even as he was getting them an 80 seat majority as PM. True, the ranks were significantly thinned by the defectors and unselected and standing downers in 2019, but those who will vote to suspend will be into three figures.
    Can we stop this crap about Johnson getting the Tories and 80 majority. He was facing Corbyn which is hardly a big deal. Arguably he should have done better.
    lol....

    Not whilst people like you were voting for Corbyn.....
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,096
    edited March 2023
    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    I see he's nominated his Dad for a knighthood.
    This isn't the done thing at all.

    Boris has already given his brother a peerage, so what's new?
    He has.
    Although his brother was at least an MP and Minister, so could be argued a political appointment.
    This kind of grift is why he needs to go.
    Johnson senior was an MEP, long long ago.

    Maybe that's why Boris turned out Eurosceptic.

    Another question- when this comes to a vote, how many Conservative MPs would vote against Boris? It would only need thirtysomething and he's toast.
    I think it is easily mustered. There were always a sizeable number of MPs who were anti-Boris, even as he was getting them an 80 seat majority as PM. True, the ranks were significantly thinned by the defectors and unselected and standing downers in 2019, but those who will vote to suspend will be into three figures.
    Can we stop this crap about Johnson getting the Tories and 80 majority. He was facing Corbyn which is hardly a big deal. Arguably he should have done better.
    It should be remembered though that a belief Corbyn was unelectable didn't exactly work for Theresa May, who was on paper at least in a much stronger position at the time.

    True, she didn't have Corbyn's extraordinary response to Salisbury, his convoluted position on the EU to help or such widespread evidence of his racism to play with, but she still very nearly lost.
    I think he was a bit of a new unknown at the time of the 2017 election. And she was very awkward under pressure - the Maybot and all that.

    Come 2019 and the vile* nature of Corbyn's views had oozed to the surface.


    * I should temper that adjective. I quite like some of Corbyn's radicalism. However, too much of it seems to come from a rather unpleasant bitter core, a tendency to run down the UK, and a detestation of the State of Israel that blinds his entire approach to foreign policy and Jewish people.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,096
    edited March 2023
    p.s. apologies for absence on here but I'm travelling. Not bragging about it nor posting pointless pictures from bars, beaches, or any other spot. It's lovely to get away and I'll leave it at that.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    The majority of Conservative MPs will not vote to suspend Johnson, not least as it would see further leakage from the Tories to RefUK.

    Plus of course Sue Gray who wrote the original report on Johnson's partygate breaches now works for Starmer
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    I see he's nominated his Dad for a knighthood.
    This isn't the done thing at all.

    Boris has already given his brother a peerage, so what's new?
    He has.
    Although his brother was at least an MP and Minister, so could be argued a political appointment.
    This kind of grift is why he needs to go.
    Johnson senior was an MEP, long long ago.

    Maybe that's why Boris turned out Eurosceptic.

    Another question- when this comes to a vote, how many Conservative MPs would vote against Boris? It would only need thirtysomething and he's toast.
    I think it is easily mustered. There were always a sizeable number of MPs who were anti-Boris, even as he was getting them an 80 seat majority as PM. True, the ranks were significantly thinned by the defectors and unselected and standing downers in 2019, but those who will vote to suspend will be into three figures.
    Can we stop this crap about Johnson getting the Tories and 80 majority. He was facing Corbyn which is hardly a big deal. Arguably he should have done better.
    It should be remembered though that a belief Corbyn was unelectable didn't exactly work for Theresa May, who was on paper at least in a much stronger position at the time.

    True, she didn't have Corbyn's extraordinary response to Salisbury, his convoluted position on the EU to help or such widespread evidence of his racism to play with, but she still very nearly lost.
    And he managed to significantly increase the vote of a party that had already been in office for 9 years. That is seriously unusual.
    While true, Mike has a point.
    The circumstances of 2019 were extremely unusual.

    There really isn't the room now to present a simplistic solution to the UK's problems in such a manner and have more than a small minority if the electorate believe you. Even less so if you're the one that fooled them last time around.
    I reassure myself that this must surely the case. But then I see polls showing Trump beating Biden in a 2024 election and think “hmm”. Or recall the multiple times Berlusconi ascended the Italian throne even after being convicted under corruption charges.
    Trump actually beat Hillary Clinton in 2016 as Corbyn nearly beat May in 2017. It took Boris to see off Corbyn in 2019 and Biden to see off Trump in 2020.

    Berlusconi's party though is back in government in Italy again, albeit a minor coalition partner in a government led by the even harder right Brothers of Italy of Meloni
  • dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    I see he's nominated his Dad for a lol.....knighthood.
    This isn't the done thing at all.

    Boris has already given his brother a peerage, so what's new?
    He has.
    Although his brother was at least an MP and Minister, so could be argued a political appointment.
    This kind of grift is why he needs to go.
    Johnson senior was an MEP, long long ago.

    Maybe that's why Boris turned out Eurosceptic.

    Another question- when this comes to a vote, how many Conservative MPs would vote against Boris? It would only need thirtysomething and he's toast.
    I think it is easily mustered. There were always a sizeable number of MPs who were anti-Boris, even as he was getting them an 80 seat majority as PM. True, the ranks were significantly thinned by the defectors and unselected and standing downers in 2019, but those who will vote to suspend will be into three figures.
    Can we stop this crap about Johnson getting the Tories and 80 majority. He was facing Corbyn which is hardly a big deal. Arguably he should have done better.
    lol....

    Not whilst people like you were voting for Corbyn.....
    Careful, mark. That could be libellous. ;)
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,096
    HYUFD said:

    The majority of Conservative MPs will not vote to suspend Johnson,

    Doesn't it only need 36 of them to vote with the Opposition?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    HYUFD said:

    The majority of Conservative MPs will not vote to suspend Johnson, not least as it would see further leakage from the Tories to RefUK.

    Plus of course Sue Gray who wrote the original report on Johnson's partygate breaches now works for Starmer

    And thus the justifications of the MPs will go.

    Boris apologised for the breaches she wrote about and yet they are actually arguing, in effect, that she must have made it all up somehow because she's Labour.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,733
    Scott_xP said:

    kjh said:

    I think you have to add 'Get Brexit Done' to the Corbyn factor for why Boris won in 2019.

    And one day it might actually be done.

    I notice Nads was going on about Brexit last week.

    Jeez, these people just need to let it go and move on !!
    Is it wrong of me to have laughed out loud at that last line?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,341
    The by election in Uxbridge question is tricky odds wise, and where value might lie.

    The best way of looking at it is to ask two questions: What is in the best personal interests of Boris and of course what will the Committee do.

    The routes to by elections are via (apart from Black Swan)
    Committee's actions ultimately compelling a by election
    or
    Boris resigning Uxbridge anyway.

    Boris personal interest depends on:
    Does he still have PM ambitions
    How much does he hate losing.

    If he has PM ambitions his best route is to get out of Uxbridge as soon as possible (well before the GE) and take his chance on election elsewhere.

    If he doesn't he won't care and will go with the flow.

    I think the odds are about right.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,564
    Rashid is bloody brilliant.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Heathener said:

    HYUFD said:

    The majority of Conservative MPs will not vote to suspend Johnson,

    Doesn't it only need 36 of them to vote with the Opposition?
    How many have announced they are standing down and are anti Boris? As I reckon Sunak votes against suspension but hopes there are enough rebels to see it through.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    I see he's nominated his Dad for a knighthood.
    This isn't the done thing at all.

    Boris has already given his brother a peerage, so what's new?
    He has.
    Although his brother was at least an MP and Minister, so could be argued a political appointment.
    This kind of grift is why he needs to go.
    Johnson senior was an MEP, long long ago.

    Maybe that's why Boris turned out Eurosceptic.

    Another question- when this comes to a vote, how many Conservative MPs would vote against Boris? It would only need thirtysomething and he's toast.
    I think it is easily mustered. There were always a sizeable number of MPs who were anti-Boris, even as he was getting them an 80 seat majority as PM. True, the ranks were significantly thinned by the defectors and unselected and standing downers in 2019, but those who will vote to suspend will be into three figures.
    Can we stop this crap about Johnson getting the Tories and 80 majority. He was facing Corbyn which is hardly a big deal. Arguably he should have done better.
    Would be ironic if both Corbyn and Johnson, the 2 main party leaders in 2019, were expelled and suspended by their parties. Corbyn is almost certain to stand as an Independent in Islington North in 2024, the risk for the Tories is Boris would go further and defect to RefUK in the hope of replacing Tice as its leader
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,096
    kle4 said:

    Heathener said:

    HYUFD said:

    The majority of Conservative MPs will not vote to suspend Johnson,

    Doesn't it only need 36 of them to vote with the Opposition?
    How many have announced they are standing down and are anti Boris? As I reckon Sunak votes against suspension but hopes there are enough rebels to see it through.
    Yes indeed.

    And although I mentioned it only needing 36 to vote with the Opposition I think it likely a larger number than that might abstain.

    If this does go to a vote it could be tight. I think Boris might lose it.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,085
    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    I see he's nominated his Dad for a knighthood.
    This isn't the done thing at all.

    Boris has already given his brother a peerage, so what's new?
    He has.
    Although his brother was at least an MP and Minister, so could be argued a political appointment.
    This kind of grift is why he needs to go.
    Johnson senior was an MEP, long long ago.

    Maybe that's why Boris turned out Eurosceptic.

    Another question- when this comes to a vote, how many Conservative MPs would vote against Boris? It would only need thirtysomething and he's toast.
    I think it is easily mustered. There were always a sizeable number of MPs who were anti-Boris, even as he was getting them an 80 seat majority as PM. True, the ranks were significantly thinned by the defectors and unselected and standing downers in 2019, but those who will vote to suspend will be into three figures.
    Can we stop this crap about Johnson getting the Tories and 80 majority. He was facing Corbyn which is hardly a big deal. Arguably he should have done better.
    It should be remembered though that a belief Corbyn was unelectable didn't exactly work for Theresa May, who was on paper at least in a much stronger position at the time.

    True, she didn't have Corbyn's extraordinary response to Salisbury, his convoluted position on the EU to help or such widespread evidence of his racism to play with, but she still very nearly lost.
    Though May put on 5.5 percent in 2017 compared with Dave in 2015. Poor compared with the opinion polls at the start of the campaign, but not intrinsically shabby. Albeit mostly by grabbing a large chunk of the 2015 UKIP vote The difference was that Labour put on nearly ten percent between 2015 and 2017- mostly during the campaign.

    Some of that will have been an anti-Brexit effect. But I think we have to acknowledge that the 2017 perception of Corbyn was remarkably positive; Magic Grandpa, ooh Jeremy Corbyn and all that. It took a couple more years for the grumpy commie aspect to hit the general public.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    Heathener said:

    HYUFD said:

    The majority of Conservative MPs will not vote to suspend Johnson,

    Doesn't it only need 36 of them to vote with the Opposition?
    Which would be more manageable, Johnson would at least be less likely to defect if he saw most Conservative MPs did not vote to suspend him even if the Commons overall did vote for suspension mainly due to Labour votes
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,733
    edited March 2023
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    I see he's nominated his Dad for a knighthood.
    This isn't the done thing at all.

    Boris has already given his brother a peerage, so what's new?
    He has.
    Although his brother was at least an MP and Minister, so could be argued a political appointment.
    This kind of grift is why he needs to go.
    Johnson senior was an MEP, long long ago.

    Maybe that's why Boris turned out Eurosceptic.

    Another question- when this comes to a vote, how many Conservative MPs would vote against Boris? It would only need thirtysomething and he's toast.
    I think it is easily mustered. There were always a sizeable number of MPs who were anti-Boris, even as he was getting them an 80 seat majority as PM. True, the ranks were significantly thinned by the defectors and unselected and standing downers in 2019, but those who will vote to suspend will be into three figures.
    Can we stop this crap about Johnson getting the Tories and 80 majority. He was facing Corbyn which is hardly a big deal. Arguably he should have done better.
    Would be ironic if both Corbyn and Johnson, the 2 main party leaders in 2019, were expelled and suspended by their parties. Corbyn is almost certain to stand as an Independent in Islington North in 2024, the risk for the Tories is Boris would go further and defect to RefUK in the hope of replacing Tice as its leader
    That is possible, but traditionally such moves don't end well. Roy Jenkins and David Owen spring to mind.

    I can't actually think of a former PM who defected to a new party and led it to success. Even Lloyd George couldn't, holding a rump of four MPs after his second defection from the Liberals. Macdonald, maybe, but his party survived with Tory help.
  • Regarding the knighthood for Stanley Johnson.

    As bad as the Ambassadorship to America for Peter Jay when his father-in-law was PM?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,733

    Regarding the knighthood for Stanley Johnson.

    As bad as the Ambassadorship to America for Peter Jay when his father-in-law was PM?

    Callaghan also knighted Nicolae Ceaucescu in 1979.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,709
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    I see he's nominated his Dad for a knighthood.
    This isn't the done thing at all.

    Boris has already given his brother a peerage, so what's new?
    He has.
    Although his brother was at least an MP and Minister, so could be argued a political appointment.
    This kind of grift is why he needs to go.
    Johnson senior was an MEP, long long ago.

    Maybe that's why Boris turned out Eurosceptic.

    Another question- when this comes to a vote, how many Conservative MPs would vote against Boris? It would only need thirtysomething and he's toast.
    I think it is easily mustered. There were always a sizeable number of MPs who were anti-Boris, even as he was getting them an 80 seat majority as PM. True, the ranks were significantly thinned by the defectors and unselected and standing downers in 2019, but those who will vote to suspend will be into three figures.
    Can we stop this crap about Johnson getting the Tories and 80 majority. He was facing Corbyn which is hardly a big deal. Arguably he should have done better.
    Would be ironic if both Corbyn and Johnson, the 2 main party leaders in 2019, were expelled and suspended by their parties. Corbyn is almost certain to stand as an Independent in Islington North in 2024, the risk for the Tories is Boris would go further and defect to RefUK in the hope of replacing Tice as its leader
    That is possible, but traditionally such moves don't end well. Roy Jenkins and David Owen spring to mind.

    I can't actually think of a former PM who defected to a new party and led it to success. Even Lloyd George couldn't, holding a rump of four MPs after his second defection from the Liberals. Macdonald, maybe, but his party survived with Tory help.
    No but Roy Jenkins got 25% of the vote for the SDP, splitting the Labour vote so Foot only got 27% for Labour and helping Thatcher to a landslide in 1983 under FPTP. The same happened to a slightly smaller extent in 1987
  • tlg86 said:

    Wow it wasn’t a dream.




    Would have been funny had that been offside.
    I saw the full match on Sky this morning.

    It did look offside.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    The majority of Conservative MPs will not vote to suspend Johnson, not least as it would see further leakage from the Tories to RefUK.

    Plus of course Sue Gray who wrote the original report on Johnson's partygate breaches now works for Starmer

    And thus the justifications of the MPs will go.

    Boris apologised for the breaches she wrote about and yet they are actually arguing, in effect, that she must have made it all up somehow because she's Labour.
    It does seem somewhat politically naive of Starmer, to have hired Gray before the enquiry into Johnson was complete. He’s giving the Tory MPs ammunition to get behind Johnson, when many of them might have been at best on the fence.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,522

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    I see he's nominated his Dad for a knighthood.
    This isn't the done thing at all.

    Boris has already given his brother a peerage, so what's new?
    He has.
    Although his brother was at least an MP and Minister, so could be argued a political appointment.
    This kind of grift is why he needs to go.
    Johnson senior was an MEP, long long ago.

    Maybe that's why Boris turned out Eurosceptic.

    Another question- when this comes to a vote, how many Conservative MPs would vote against Boris? It would only need thirtysomething and he's toast.
    I think it is easily mustered. There were always a sizeable number of MPs who were anti-Boris, even as he was getting them an 80 seat majority as PM. True, the ranks were significantly thinned by the defectors and unselected and standing downers in 2019, but those who will vote to suspend will be into three figures.
    Can we stop this crap about Johnson getting the Tories and 80 majority. He was facing Corbyn which is hardly a big deal. Arguably he should have done better.
    How big a majority did May get against Corbyn?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    HYUFD said:

    The majority of Conservative MPs will not vote to suspend Johnson, not least as it would see further leakage from the Tories to RefUK.

    Plus of course Sue Gray who wrote the original report on Johnson's partygate breaches now works for Starmer

    No, she DOESN’T. Not yet, and AIUI, nothing has been confirmed.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    tlg86 said:

    Wow it wasn’t a dream.




    Would have been funny had that been offside.
    I saw the full match on Sky this morning.

    It did look offside.
    You were at Anfield last night? Definitely one to tell the future grandkids!
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,085
    algarkirk said:

    The by election in Uxbridge question is tricky odds wise, and where value might lie.

    The best way of looking at it is to ask two questions: What is in the best personal interests of Boris and of course what will the Committee do.

    The routes to by elections are via (apart from Black Swan)
    Committee's actions ultimately compelling a by election
    or
    Boris resigning Uxbridge anyway.

    Boris personal interest depends on:
    Does he still have PM ambitions
    How much does he hate losing.

    If he has PM ambitions his best route is to get out of Uxbridge as soon as possible (well before the GE) and take his chance on election elsewhere.

    If he doesn't he won't care and will go with the flow.

    I think the odds are about right.

    Process question.

    Let's assume that Boris still has ambitions.

    He'd like a safer seat, and he'd like the committee not to report and MPs not to vote.

    What happens if he resigns now, in a "not admitting anything, but fed up with the biased circus" sort of way?

    Does that kill the report, on the grounds that the Commons can't sanction someone who isn't an MP?

    In which case, can he suddenly reappear as a last-minute candidate somewhere ubersafe when the election comes round?

    Does that work, of am I channelling Jeffrey Archer's plotting?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    The majority of Conservative MPs will not vote to suspend Johnson, not least as it would see further leakage from the Tories to RefUK.

    Plus of course Sue Gray who wrote the original report on Johnson's partygate breaches now works for Starmer

    And thus the justifications of the MPs will go.

    Boris apologised for the breaches she wrote about and yet they are actually arguing, in effect, that she must have made it all up somehow because she's Labour.
    It does seem somewhat politically naive of Starmer, to have hired Gray before the enquiry into Johnson was complete. He’s giving the Tory MPs ammunition to get behind Johnson, when many of them might have been at best on the fence.
    It was not the best timing, but if that kicks then off the fence when the facts already admitted to have not changed, then they were never truly on the fence. Its the response of people who were looking for an excuse, even if it doesn't make sense.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,733

    algarkirk said:

    The by election in Uxbridge question is tricky odds wise, and where value might lie.

    The best way of looking at it is to ask two questions: What is in the best personal interests of Boris and of course what will the Committee do.

    The routes to by elections are via (apart from Black Swan)
    Committee's actions ultimately compelling a by election
    or
    Boris resigning Uxbridge anyway.

    Boris personal interest depends on:
    Does he still have PM ambitions
    How much does he hate losing.

    If he has PM ambitions his best route is to get out of Uxbridge as soon as possible (well before the GE) and take his chance on election elsewhere.

    If he doesn't he won't care and will go with the flow.

    I think the odds are about right.

    Process question.

    Let's assume that Boris still has ambitions.

    He'd like a safer seat, and he'd like the committee not to report and MPs not to vote.

    What happens if he resigns now, in a "not admitting anything, but fed up with the biased circus" sort of way?

    Does that kill the report, on the grounds that the Commons can't sanction someone who isn't an MP?

    In which case, can he suddenly reappear as a last-minute candidate somewhere ubersafe when the election comes round?

    Does that work, of am I channelling Jeffrey Archer's plotting?
    They can still pass a vote of censure, surely? You don't have to be an MP for that.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 4,199
    TimS said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    I see he's nominated his Dad for a knighthood.
    This isn't the done thing at all.

    Boris has already given his brother a peerage, so what's new?
    He has.
    Although his brother was at least an MP and Minister, so could be argued a political appointment.
    This kind of grift is why he needs to go.
    Johnson senior was an MEP, long long ago.

    Maybe that's why Boris turned out Eurosceptic.

    Another question- when this comes to a vote, how many Conservative MPs would vote against Boris? It would only need thirtysomething and he's toast.
    I think it is easily mustered. There were always a sizeable number of MPs who were anti-Boris, even as he was getting them an 80 seat majority as PM. True, the ranks were significantly thinned by the defectors and unselected and standing downers in 2019, but those who will vote to suspend will be into three figures.
    Can we stop this crap about Johnson getting the Tories and 80 majority. He was facing Corbyn which is hardly a big deal. Arguably he should have done better.
    It should be remembered though that a belief Corbyn was unelectable didn't exactly work for Theresa May, who was on paper at least in a much stronger position at the time.

    True, she didn't have Corbyn's extraordinary response to Salisbury, his convoluted position on the EU to help or such widespread evidence of his racism to play with, but she still very nearly lost.
    And he managed to significantly increase the vote of a party that had already been in office for 9 years. That is seriously unusual.
    While true, Mike has a point.
    The circumstances of 2019 were extremely unusual.

    There really isn't the room now to present a simplistic solution to the UK's problems in such a manner and have more than a small minority if the electorate believe you. Even less so if you're the one that fooled them last time around.
    I reassure myself that this must surely the case. But then I see polls showing Trump beating Biden in a 2024 election and think “hmm”. Or recall the multiple times Berlusconi ascended the Italian throne even after being convicted under corruption charges.
    Berlusconi is a multi-billionaire who owns half the TV stations in Italy, with his own political party in a semi-PR electoral system.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    kle4 said:

    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    The majority of Conservative MPs will not vote to suspend Johnson, not least as it would see further leakage from the Tories to RefUK.

    Plus of course Sue Gray who wrote the original report on Johnson's partygate breaches now works for Starmer

    And thus the justifications of the MPs will go.

    Boris apologised for the breaches she wrote about and yet they are actually arguing, in effect, that she must have made it all up somehow because she's Labour.
    It does seem somewhat politically naive of Starmer, to have hired Gray before the enquiry into Johnson was complete. He’s giving the Tory MPs ammunition to get behind Johnson, when many of them might have been at best on the fence.
    It was not the best timing, but if that kicks then off the fence when the facts already admitted to have not changed, then they were never truly on the fence. Its the response of people who were looking for an excuse, even if it doesn't make sense.
    There’s probably a few dozen Tory MPs who would have made a trip to Afghanistan been washing their hair on the day of any censure vote, who will now turn up to support the former PM.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,733
    Taz said:
    Those bloody experts, always pointing out that the government are fucking clueless. How very dare they?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    The majority of Conservative MPs will not vote to suspend Johnson, not least as it would see further leakage from the Tories to RefUK.

    Plus of course Sue Gray who wrote the original report on Johnson's partygate breaches now works for Starmer

    And thus the justifications of the MPs will go.

    Boris apologised for the breaches she wrote about and yet they are actually arguing, in effect, that she must have made it all up somehow because she's Labour.
    It does seem somewhat politically naive of Starmer, to have hired Gray before the enquiry into Johnson was complete. He’s giving the Tory MPs ammunition to get behind Johnson, when many of them might have been at best on the fence.
    It's entirely possible Starmer does not have the best interests of the Conservative Party at heart.....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,564
    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    The majority of Conservative MPs will not vote to suspend Johnson, not least as it would see further leakage from the Tories to RefUK.

    Plus of course Sue Gray who wrote the original report on Johnson's partygate breaches now works for Starmer

    And thus the justifications of the MPs will go.

    Boris apologised for the breaches she wrote about and yet they are actually arguing, in effect, that she must have made it all up somehow because she's Labour.
    It does seem somewhat politically naive of Starmer, to have hired Gray before the enquiry into Johnson was complete. He’s giving the Tory MPs ammunition to get behind Johnson, when many of them might have been at best on the fence.
    The timing doesn't appear to be a matter of choice, but rather a consequence of her civil service career hitting a brick wall.
    It was either hire her then, or chance her going elsewhere.

    The immediate political optics are secondary to assembling a team able to govern. Seems like the right priority to me.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926
    edited March 2023
    Sandpit said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    The majority of Conservative MPs will not vote to suspend Johnson, not least as it would see further leakage from the Tories to RefUK.

    Plus of course Sue Gray who wrote the original report on Johnson's partygate breaches now works for Starmer

    And thus the justifications of the MPs will go.

    Boris apologised for the breaches she wrote about and yet they are actually arguing, in effect, that she must have made it all up somehow because she's Labour.
    It does seem somewhat politically naive of Starmer, to have hired Gray before the enquiry into Johnson was complete. He’s giving the Tory MPs ammunition to get behind Johnson, when many of them might have been at best on the fence.
    So if Starmer has saved Johnson by hiring Gray, is he very clever or very stupid?

    ETA scooped by Carlotta Vance.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,273
    ydoethur said:

    algarkirk said:

    The by election in Uxbridge question is tricky odds wise, and where value might lie.

    The best way of looking at it is to ask two questions: What is in the best personal interests of Boris and of course what will the Committee do.

    The routes to by elections are via (apart from Black Swan)
    Committee's actions ultimately compelling a by election
    or
    Boris resigning Uxbridge anyway.

    Boris personal interest depends on:
    Does he still have PM ambitions
    How much does he hate losing.

    If he has PM ambitions his best route is to get out of Uxbridge as soon as possible (well before the GE) and take his chance on election elsewhere.

    If he doesn't he won't care and will go with the flow.

    I think the odds are about right.

    Process question.

    Let's assume that Boris still has ambitions.

    He'd like a safer seat, and he'd like the committee not to report and MPs not to vote.

    What happens if he resigns now, in a "not admitting anything, but fed up with the biased circus" sort of way?

    Does that kill the report, on the grounds that the Commons can't sanction someone who isn't an MP?

    In which case, can he suddenly reappear as a last-minute candidate somewhere ubersafe when the election comes round?

    Does that work, of am I channelling Jeffrey Archer's plotting?
    They can still pass a vote of censure, surely? You don't have to be an MP for that.
    I assume that wouldn't stop Johnson standing in another safer seat in future though.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,085

    I don’t think anyone doubts Boris was a good campaigner. Memes, jokes and bonhomie contrasted sharply with May, and Corbyn, and he did seem to have a plan to end the neverending Brexit battle.

    The real question is why, having now been “found out” in office, so many think he could pull off the same trick again.

    Spoiler: he couldn’t, and he’d most likely take down the whole Tory party with him.

    I go back to what I said ages ago, when Boris was still net popular.

    Boris is a seductor who can get anything from anyone on first encounter.

    But at some point, everyone who deals with him realises he's both a seductor and a sh1t. They regret their dealings with him and hate him forever more.
  • HYUFD said:

    The majority of Conservative MPs will not vote to suspend Johnson, not least as it would see further leakage from the Tories to RefUK.

    Plus of course Sue Gray who wrote the original report on Johnson's partygate breaches now works for Starmer

    It doesn't need a majority of mps

    Sue Gray does not work for Starmer yet, and suggesting her report is classic Johnson obfuscation
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,349
    i saw the 7 - 0 and assumed it was the women playing. A bit of a coincidence when I saw it was at Anfield too. Perhaps United did send the women?
  • ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    kjh said:

    I think you have to add 'Get Brexit Done' to the Corbyn factor for why Boris won in 2019.

    And one day it might actually be done.

    I notice Nads was going on about Brexit last week.

    Jeez, these people just need to let it go and move on !!
    Is it wrong of me to have laughed out loud at that last line?
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    kjh said:

    I think you have to add 'Get Brexit Done' to the Corbyn factor for why Boris won in 2019.

    And one day it might actually be done.

    I notice Nads was going on about Brexit last week.

    Jeez, these people just need to let it go and move on !!
    Is it wrong of me to have laughed out loud at that last line?
    Absolutely no self awareness @Scott_xP
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 23,926

    Regarding the knighthood for Stanley Johnson.

    As bad as the Ambassadorship to America for Peter Jay when his father-in-law was PM?

    CCHQ took its time digging that up.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,564
    Butler persisting with Ahmed.
    Tactically dubious, given the number of overs remaining to Woakes and Rashid, but good management showing faith in the new kid.
  • Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Wow it wasn’t a dream.




    Would have been funny had that been offside.
    I saw the full match on Sky this morning.

    It did look offside.
    You were at Anfield last night? Definitely one to tell the future grandkids!
    In the last 18 months I’ve seen Liverpool thrash Manchester United 5 nil and 7 nil home and away. (Also a 4 nil home victory in that period too.)

    Klopp is my God.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Boris isn't going to RefUK. He is a big fish and wants to swim in the big sea not a muddy puddle.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    Meanwhile in the land of the free I see that Djokovic has been refused entry as he hasn't been vaccinated. Against Covid, presumably.
  • HYUFD said:

    Heathener said:

    HYUFD said:

    The majority of Conservative MPs will not vote to suspend Johnson,

    Doesn't it only need 36 of them to vote with the Opposition?
    Which would be more manageable, Johnson would at least be less likely to defect if he saw most Conservative MPs did not vote to suspend him even if the Commons overall did vote for suspension mainly due to Labour votes
    Johnson is not going to join a lost cause with 8% of the vote if that
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,564

    HYUFD said:

    The majority of Conservative MPs will not vote to suspend Johnson, not least as it would see further leakage from the Tories to RefUK.

    Plus of course Sue Gray who wrote the original report on Johnson's partygate breaches now works for Starmer

    It doesn't need a majority of mps

    Sue Gray does not work for Starmer yet, and suggesting her report is classic Johnson obfuscation
    All the Tories pre-empting the ACOBA report, and spinning that she's already been hired, doesn't exactly scream good faith commentary.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Sandpit said:

    tlg86 said:

    Wow it wasn’t a dream.




    Would have been funny had that been offside.
    I saw the full match on Sky this morning.

    It did look offside.
    You were at Anfield last night? Definitely one to tell the future grandkids!
    In the last 18 months I’ve seen Liverpool thrash Manchester United 5 nil and 7 nil home and away. (Also a 4 nil home victory in that period too.)

    Klopp is my God.
    Klopp is God, and Salah is Jesus.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,522
    Nigelb said:

    Butler persisting with Ahmed.
    Tactically dubious, given the number of overs remaining to Woakes and Rashid, but good management showing faith in the new kid.

    I'm guessing he didn't want to take him off after the way his last over ended - and it worked out fine.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,273
    CD13 said:

    i saw the 7 - 0 and assumed it was the women playing. A bit of a coincidence when I saw it was at Anfield too. Perhaps United did send the women?

    Man U Women would have done better tbf
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    TOPPING said:

    Meanwhile in the land of the free I see that Djokovic has been refused entry as he hasn't been vaccinated. Against Covid, presumably.

    Yep, the US appears to be the last Western country that still has C19 vaccine requirements.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,564
    Driver said:

    Nigelb said:

    Butler persisting with Ahmed.
    Tactically dubious, given the number of overs remaining to Woakes and Rashid, but good management showing faith in the new kid.

    I'm guessing he didn't want to take him off after the way his last over ended - and it worked out fine.
    Reintroducing Woakes even better.
    I applaud Buttler prioritising strategy over tactics.
This discussion has been closed.