Categories
Will CON MPs back a suspension move on Johnson? – politicalbetting.com
Will CON MPs back a suspension move on Johnson? – politicalbetting.com
The above betting market on whether there will be an Uxbridge by-election is just about the one place at the moment where you can take a punt on Boris Johnson’s political future. He of course is the sitting MP here.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
It's an interesting saga this. Johnson isn't helping his cause among parliamentary colleagues, with whom he already had less support than in the red wall seats.
However, suppose he is defenestrated at Uxbridge? He might stage a comeback in a safer seat? Especially after the crushing Conservative General Election defeat which is coming.
My guess is that he's a busted flush. He wasn't suited to the job of PM anyway.
Probably not a by-election, although one can probably imagine he stands down at the general election.
Let's hope the fool departs the stage sooner rather than later.
F1: post-race ramble, for those who missed it yesterday:
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2023/03/bahrain-post-race-ramble-2023.html
I’m all in favour of him having a suspended sentence…
This isn't the done thing at all.
Although his brother was at least an MP and Minister, so could be argued a political appointment.
This kind of grift is why he needs to go.
Maybe that's why Boris turned out Eurosceptic.
Another question- when this comes to a vote, how many Conservative MPs would vote against Boris? It would only need thirtysomething and he's toast.
The PA news agency has contacted Stanley Johnson for comment.
The paper said that the former prime minister’s list of nominations included up to 100 names and was “considerably longer” than that of his predecessors Theresa May and David Cameron. The list is currently going through Cabinet Office vetting.
Any honour for Stanley Johnson would raise questions for the former Conservative leader. He has previously faced accusations of cronyism in 2020, after he nominated his brother, Jo Johnson, for a peerage.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/mar/05/boris-johnson-nominates-father-for-a-knighthood
Now gifted a wicket.
One of them made tools, and the other worked in manufacturing precision instruments.
If I were a Conservative MP, fearful of both my activists and my constituents, I'd be looking for an urgent meeting far from Westminster that day. Or a note from my mum, saying I can't do voting because I have a verruca.
True, she didn't have Corbyn's extraordinary response to Salisbury, his convoluted position on the EU to help or such widespread evidence of his racism to play with, but she still very nearly lost.
Admittedly, the circumstances were something of a perfect storm, but it was still remarkable and unusual.
The circumstances of 2019 were extremely unusual.
There really isn't the room now to present a simplistic solution to the UK's problems in such a manner and have more than a small minority if the electorate believe you. Even less so if you're the one that fooled them last time around.
Yes, I know that was 8 years.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/05/democrats-elections-states-00085524
What a shitbag.
That is thing inextricably associated with Johnson, and it's not sortable on any timeframe which covers the next couple of general elections.
There's a significant minority of the electorate who will continue to believe it justified come what may. For the rest, it will continue obviously to hamper solutions to the UK's structural problems.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3885392-kari-lake-wins-cpac-vice-president-poll-topping-desantis-haley/
I notice Nads was going on about Brexit last week.
Jeez, these people just need to let it go and move on !!
Because of that split I think Rishi gives in.
Depends partly on how long a suspension. Under the threshold for a petition and maybe they'll allow a suspension.
Not whilst people like you were voting for Corbyn.....
Come 2019 and the vile* nature of Corbyn's views had oozed to the surface.
* I should temper that adjective. I quite like some of Corbyn's radicalism. However, too much of it seems to come from a rather unpleasant bitter core, a tendency to run down the UK, and a detestation of the State of Israel that blinds his entire approach to foreign policy and Jewish people.
Plus of course Sue Gray who wrote the original report on Johnson's partygate breaches now works for Starmer
Berlusconi's party though is back in government in Italy again, albeit a minor coalition partner in a government led by the even harder right Brothers of Italy of Meloni
Boris apologised for the breaches she wrote about and yet they are actually arguing, in effect, that she must have made it all up somehow because she's Labour.
The best way of looking at it is to ask two questions: What is in the best personal interests of Boris and of course what will the Committee do.
The routes to by elections are via (apart from Black Swan)
Committee's actions ultimately compelling a by election
or
Boris resigning Uxbridge anyway.
Boris personal interest depends on:
Does he still have PM ambitions
How much does he hate losing.
If he has PM ambitions his best route is to get out of Uxbridge as soon as possible (well before the GE) and take his chance on election elsewhere.
If he doesn't he won't care and will go with the flow.
I think the odds are about right.
And although I mentioned it only needing 36 to vote with the Opposition I think it likely a larger number than that might abstain.
If this does go to a vote it could be tight. I think Boris might lose it.
Some of that will have been an anti-Brexit effect. But I think we have to acknowledge that the 2017 perception of Corbyn was remarkably positive; Magic Grandpa, ooh Jeremy Corbyn and all that. It took a couple more years for the grumpy commie aspect to hit the general public.
I can't actually think of a former PM who defected to a new party and led it to success. Even Lloyd George couldn't, holding a rump of four MPs after his second defection from the Liberals. Macdonald, maybe, but his party survived with Tory help.
As bad as the Ambassadorship to America for Peter Jay when his father-in-law was PM?
It did look offside.
Let's assume that Boris still has ambitions.
He'd like a safer seat, and he'd like the committee not to report and MPs not to vote.
What happens if he resigns now, in a "not admitting anything, but fed up with the biased circus" sort of way?
Does that kill the report, on the grounds that the Commons can't sanction someone who isn't an MP?
In which case, can he suddenly reappear as a last-minute candidate somewhere ubersafe when the election comes round?
Does that work, of am I channelling Jeffrey Archer's plotting?
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/uk-avoiding-asylum-responsibilities-with-new-plans-to-clamp-down-on-channel-migrant-crossings-human-rights-group/ar-AA18fQ8h?ocid=entnewsntp&pc=U531&cvid=743efade265d4b6a8d1021dcf70705f9&ei=16
The real question is why, having now been “found out” in office, so many think he could pull off the same trick again.
Spoiler: he couldn’t, and he’d most likely take down the whole Tory party with him.
It was either hire her then, or chance her going elsewhere.
The immediate political optics are secondary to assembling a team able to govern. Seems like the right priority to me.
ETA scooped by Carlotta Vance.
Boris is a seductor who can get anything from anyone on first encounter.
But at some point, everyone who deals with him realises he's both a seductor and a sh1t. They regret their dealings with him and hate him forever more.
Sue Gray does not work for Starmer yet, and suggesting her report is classic Johnson obfuscation
Tactically dubious, given the number of overs remaining to Woakes and Rashid, but good management showing faith in the new kid.
Klopp is my God.
I applaud Buttler prioritising strategy over tactics.