politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » By-Election Preview : October 9th 2014

Peter_the_Punter said:

___Bobajob___ said:

The reason people smoke is mainly because it is enjoyable.

I have recently given up – switching to vaping, which is also enjoyable.

It's not possible for people who have never smoked to grasp why smoking is enjoyable I guess.

I have smoked, Bob, and it is enjoyable. But so are the things it displaces, like good health.

The enjoyment however comes from the addiction and is part of it. The puzzle is that people ever start, knowing that it is seriously addictive and has seriously damaging consequences.

I really do find it difficult to avoid viewing smoking as synonymous with stupidity.

A lot of people smoke for self-medication - nicotine is neuroprotective in Schizophrenia, Depression and Alzheimers. In fact, if you smoke, and you're in an at-risk group, you're less likely to get Schizophrenia than if you don't.

Pulpstar said:

TGOHF said:

___Bobajob___ said:

TGOHF said:

My predictions for tonight :

Cameron will still be PM and the next election will be in May.

One of your better forecasts, Harry.

Yes worth noting that Cons finishing 2nd in Clacton means they have lost - 2nd is nowhere in fptp

Cons finishing second will be fine. If they come 3rd I'm in trouble.

What was the bet?

anotherDave said:

Pulpstar said:

TGOHF said:

___Bobajob___ said:

TGOHF said:

My predictions for tonight :

Cameron will still be PM and the next election will be in May.

One of your better forecasts, Harry.

Yes worth noting that Cons finishing 2nd in Clacton means they have lost - 2nd is nowhere in fptp

Cons finishing second will be fine. If they come 3rd I'm in trouble.

What was the bet?

Probably the same one I had - sell of Labour on Sporting Index.

Relax Pulpy. Ain't gonna happen.

anotherDave said:

Pulpstar said:

TGOHF said:

___Bobajob___ said:

TGOHF said:

My predictions for tonight :

Cameron will still be PM and the next election will be in May.

One of your better forecasts, Harry.

Yes worth noting that Cons finishing 2nd in Clacton means they have lost - 2nd is nowhere in fptp

Cons finishing second will be fine. If they come 3rd I'm in trouble.

What was the bet?

Bought Conservatives on the SPIN

Safish £15

matt said:

Speedy said:

Charles said:

MikeK said:

TheWatcher said:

Speedy said:

Bad news for us.
http://www.channel4.com/news/is-the-uk-equipped-for-an-ebola-outbreak

"A British man suspected of contracting the Ebola virus has died in Macedonia, a senior Macedonian government official confirmed, adding that the victim is thought to have travelled from Britain.

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Reuters a second Briton had also shown symptoms of the virus.

He said the two had been staying at a hotel in the capital Skopje and that hotel staff and the ambulance crew that took them in for treatment had been put into isolation."

That means they had the disease while they where in the UK.

If the media get wind of a massive order of body bags, and Roger gets a call to make a public information film, we're screwed.

That means they had the disease while they where in the UK.

If true there has been a massive breach of medical standards somewhere.

Where did William Pooley, the patient treated at the Royal Free Hospital for the Ebola virus, go after he was discharged from the hospital on September 3rd?

Could he have been discharged prematurely? After all there is not that much knowledge of how the virus develops and alters in the medical world.

LSHTM is all over this - Peter Piot is advising the govenment personally.

The virus can be relatively easily treated with good hygiene, fluids and salts. Mortality is nowhere near 70% if you have a functioning healthcare system.

Le Pen is already making a move in France.
http://www.huffingtonpost.fr/2014/10/09/ebola-front-national-suspendre-liaisons-aeriennes-pays-touches_n_5958204.html?utm_hp_ref=sante

She is asking for suspension of air links with countries suffering from the epidemic.

To borrow someone else's phrase, all this proves is that it's catnip for racist xenophobes.

I hate it when reality conflicts with my worldview too. France would certainly be ground zero for its arrival in France.

Texas Ebola guy's family already ramping up to sue for discrimination.

http://www.unz.com/isteve/ebola-guys-family-ramping-up-discrimination-lawsuit/

Quarantine, it's racist mmmkay, if only we had known in our more ignorant times past.

http://www.unz.com/isteve/time-the-history-of-quarantine-is-the-history-of-discrimination/

anotherDave said:

The local paper in Clacton is going to produce a souvenir issue. How many by-elections get that treatment!

"THE Gazette will have live coverage of the Clacton by-election on this website throughout the night, with the result expected at about 3am tomorrow.

We will also be publishing a special Election Gazette, available in major retail outlets tomorrow morning, with the result and all the reaction to the by-election."

http://www.clactonandfrintongazette.co.uk/news/11524295.Find_out_who_wins_first_with_the_Clacton_Gazette/

"Nippon Television, based in Japan, and Voice of Russia will be at the count at Clacton Town Hall tonight, along with all the major British news organisations."

http://www.clactonandfrintongazette.co.uk/news/11524157.Eyes_of_the_world_on_Clacton_as_Question_Time_and_news_crews_move_in_for_poll/

PAW said:

There isn't any of the Black population that is so sensitive of their skin colour they would rather take the risk of Ebola than block the flights. People realise they would be the first to be infected.

Then you have misunderstood. If you trace most of the sources of a lot of the more lunatic PC'ness you will often find that it is not a community being offended but some guardianista type believing they should be offended and therefore acting upon their behalf.

My son's school was a typical example where they were going to have winterval but not christmas but it wasn't the muslims, sikhs and hindu's complaining that caused it. In fact they were as vociferous in objecting to christmas being gone as anyone. (The school ditched the idea in the end)

Peter_the_Punter said:

Monkeys said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

___Bobajob___ said:

The reason people smoke is mainly because it is enjoyable.

I have recently given up – switching to vaping, which is also enjoyable.

It's not possible for people who have never smoked to grasp why smoking is enjoyable I guess.

I have smoked, Bob, and it is enjoyable. But so are the things it displaces, like good health.

The enjoyment however comes from the addiction and is part of it. The puzzle is that people ever start, knowing that it is seriously addictive and has seriously damaging consequences.

I really do find it difficult to avoid viewing smoking as synonymous with stupidity.

A lot of people smoke for self-medication - nicotine is neuroprotective in Schizophrenia, Depression and Alzheimers. In fact, if you smoke, and you're in an at-risk group, you're less likely to get Schizophrenia than if you don't.

Erm...exactly what percentage of all smokers do so for that reason?

That's unanswerable. The point is, it isn't entirely synonymous with stupidity.

Bond_James_Bond said:

If you actually honestly believe this BNP canard UKIP has adopted - that there is no difference between Cameron and Miliband's respective parties - then either your analytical abilities are very seriously deficient, or you are simply not paying attention. That's not intended as an attack; it's a statement of what is surely obvious.

In certain areas, of course they are similar. They completely agree that murder should be illegal, for example; that there should be schools; that war should not be declared on France.

This doesn't make them the same.

I also find it extraordinary that you seem to feel that, as there isn't a party that represents every single one of your views precisely, it's just fine for one that should be utter anathema to you to get in by default. Somehow this outcome nothing to do with your action or inaction.

You do realise that this is precisely what happened in the 80s? That Thatcher won majorities on a declining vote share because the two lefty parties let her in? How do you think they feel about themselves now for letting that happen? Would the political spectrum today be to the left of where it is now, or to the right, had Kinnock got in in 1987 or 1992?

Very few UKIPpers seem to have given this any genuine thought. What one gets is a rant about how others somehow feel entitled to their votes, that they can do as they like, and they're not liable for the consequences of their deeds and choices.

This is the very definition of irresponsibility. What we are entitled to expect of other voters is that they reflect on what they are doing when they cast a vote and are big enough to own the consequences.

I hope you're recovering from this meltdown in a nice quiet room with the lights off. I won't labour the content (it wouldn't be kind), but I will say it sounds to me like you've talked yourself into supporting UKIP in Clacton, Rochester, and Heywood. In every case, UKIP are ahead of the Tories, and in two they are the incumbent. I hope you're not selfishly, capriciously and peevishly going to divide the right and risk a Labour government by supporting the Tories. After all, I'm sure you're far too sensible to insist on supporting a party that represents every single one of your views precisely, and risk allowing one that is utter anathema to you to get in.

"Stay indoors and put your faith in Lemsip Mr Hayfield" - easy to overdose if you are Vegan.

Peter_the_Punter said:

___Bobajob___ said:

The reason people smoke is mainly because it is enjoyable.

I have recently given up – switching to vaping, which is also enjoyable.

It's not possible for people who have never smoked to grasp why smoking is enjoyable I guess.

I have smoked, Bob, and it is enjoyable. But so are the things it displaces, like good health.

The enjoyment however comes from the addiction and is part of it. The puzzle is that people ever start, knowing that it is seriously addictive and has seriously damaging consequences.

I really do find it difficult to avoid viewing smoking as synonymous with stupidity.

Economists actually have what they call the rational addiction model to describe the behaviour of those who have succumbed in a way that doesn't assume they are stupid are crazy.

Years ago, I was reading a discussion of something similar to the puzzle you posed about the conflict between present and future benefits, in a tract on the philosophy of law. Sadly I have forgotten the name of the author, but the basic proposal was that people should be able to draw up binding contracts with their inter-temporal self - the canonical example was for a person attempting to give up smoking to bind his future self not to pick up the fags again, for the benefit of his even-further-future self. The point was that the recognised interests of the further-future self would then gain a legal protection, that could result in enforcement of some kind against future self. A more extreme example was to admit oneself to a rehab clinic for hard drugs - that one's present agreement not to leave the premises and quit the programme, could be enforced against one's future self, even in the event of a change of heart.

As you say, the real mystery is why present-self may take up such a harmful habit in the first instance - essentially it's because one's far-future-self can't warn, or more drastically, legally intervene, but arguably he would if he could! (At least in your case...)

Best wishes to Harry Hayfield. Hope all's cleared up soon. Your headers are always appreciated, but you're under no obligation to slave away for us! So quit apologising, we'll gladly take what we get given.

PAW said:

"Stay indoors and put your faith in Lemsip Mr Hayfield" - easy to overdose if you are Vegan.

Clearly vegans are an inferior species, and will not survive. :-(

anotherDave said:

Speedy said:

anotherDave said:

anotherDave said:

The local paper in Clacton is going to produce a souvenir issue. How many by-elections get that treatment!

"THE Gazette will have live coverage of the Clacton by-election on this website throughout the night, with the result expected at about 3am tomorrow.

We will also be publishing a special Election Gazette, available in major retail outlets tomorrow morning, with the result and all the reaction to the by-election."

http://www.clactonandfrintongazette.co.uk/news/11524295.Find_out_who_wins_first_with_the_Clacton_Gazette/

"Nippon Television, based in Japan, and Voice of Russia will be at the count at Clacton Town Hall tonight, along with all the major British news organisations."

http://www.clactonandfrintongazette.co.uk/news/11524157.Eyes_of_the_world_on_Clacton_as_Question_Time_and_news_crews_move_in_for_poll/

Clacton to be the centre of the universe for just one night?

We are entering a new Clacton Era.

London? New York? Yesterday's trendsetters!

Demographically, at least in terms of age structure rather than education/ethnicity/religion, Clacton is actually a vision of our future.

Now he's been there, that's something for Peter to really ponder...

anotherDave said:

Speedy said:

anotherDave said:

anotherDave said:

The local paper in Clacton is going to produce a souvenir issue. How many by-elections get that treatment!

"THE Gazette will have live coverage of the Clacton by-election on this website throughout the night, with the result expected at about 3am tomorrow.

We will also be publishing a special Election Gazette, available in major retail outlets tomorrow morning, with the result and all the reaction to the by-election."

http://www.clactonandfrintongazette.co.uk/news/11524295.Find_out_who_wins_first_with_the_Clacton_Gazette/

"Nippon Television, based in Japan, and Voice of Russia will be at the count at Clacton Town Hall tonight, along with all the major British news organisations."

http://www.clactonandfrintongazette.co.uk/news/11524157.Eyes_of_the_world_on_Clacton_as_Question_Time_and_news_crews_move_in_for_poll/

Clacton to be the centre of the universe for just one night?

We are entering a new Clacton Era.

London? New York? Yesterday's trendsetters!

Clacton Gazette most read:

No.1 Soaring youth interest in UKIP inspires Clacton branch.
No.2 Caravan owners devastated by closure of popular holiday park.
No.8 Top Tories show a united front in Clacton ahead of poll.
No.12 Sex worker named as candidate in Clacton by-election
No.13 Labour big-gun hits out at train service as she joins the campaign trail in Clacton
No.20 Independent candidate says healthcare needs have been highlighted in by-election battle.

audreyanne said:

Charles said:

MikeK said:

TheWatcher said:

Speedy said:

Bad news for us.
http://www.channel4.com/news/is-the-uk-equipped-for-an-ebola-outbreak

"A British man suspected of contracting the Ebola virus has died in Macedonia, a senior Macedonian government official confirmed, adding that the victim is thought to have travelled from Britain.

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Reuters a second Briton had also shown symptoms of the virus.

He said the two had been staying at a hotel in the capital Skopje and that hotel staff and the ambulance crew that took them in for treatment had been put into isolation."

That means they had the disease while they where in the UK.

If the media get wind of a massive order of body bags, and Roger gets a call to make a public information film, we're screwed.

That means they had the disease while they where in the UK.

If true there has been a massive breach of medical standards somewhere.

Where did William Pooley, the patient treated at the Royal Free Hospital for the Ebola virus, go after he was discharged from the hospital on September 3rd?

Could he have been discharged prematurely? After all there is not that much knowledge of how the virus develops and alters in the medical world.

The virus can be relatively easily treated with good hygiene, fluids and salts. Mortality is nowhere near 70% if you have a functioning healthcare system.

You are, actually, talking rot really aren't you? Let's be honest about it? There is no cure for Ebola. Sure, you can take fluids etc. but actually you, white Charles, are no different, from black African. Shock to your system? Maybe it should be.

I know Peter Piot, the leading world expert in ebola quite well.

But if you don't believe me, how about the following from the CDC:

The following basic interventions, when used early, can significantly improve the chances of survival:

Providing intravenous fluids (IV)and balancing electrolytes (body salts)
Maintaining oxygen status and blood pressure
Treating other infections if they occur

http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/treatment/

Good, basic, medical procedures dramatically reduce the mortality levels from ebola.

But feel free to ignore the last 17 years that I've spent in the healthcare sector.

MyBurningEars said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

___Bobajob___ said:

The reason people smoke is mainly because it is enjoyable.

I have recently given up – switching to vaping, which is also enjoyable.

It's not possible for people who have never smoked to grasp why smoking is enjoyable I guess.

I have smoked, Bob, and it is enjoyable. But so are the things it displaces, like good health.

The enjoyment however comes from the addiction and is part of it. The puzzle is that people ever start, knowing that it is seriously addictive and has seriously damaging consequences.

I really do find it difficult to avoid viewing smoking as synonymous with stupidity.

Economists actually have what they call the rational addiction model to describe the behaviour of those who have succumbed in a way that doesn't assume they are stupid are crazy.

Years ago, I was reading a discussion of something similar to the puzzle you posed about the conflict between present and future benefits, in a tract on the philosophy of law. Sadly I have forgotten the name of the author, but the basic proposal was that people should be able to draw up binding contracts with their inter-temporal self - the canonical example was for a person attempting to give up smoking to bind his future self not to pick up the fags again, for the benefit of his even-further-future self. The point was that the recognised interests of the further-future self would then gain a legal protection, that could result in enforcement of some kind against future self. A more extreme example was to admit oneself to a rehab clinic for hard drugs - that one's present agreement not to leave the premises and quit the programme, could be enforced against one's future self, even in the event of a change of heart.

As you say, the real mystery is why present-self may take up such a harmful habit in the first instance - essentially it's because one's far-future-self can't warn, or more drastically, legally intervene, but arguably he would if he could! (At least in your case...)

Sounds like the sort of philosophising that can keep full-tenure Professors in post for decades, MBE.

But as you indicate, it doesn't really answer the 'why start?' question when the pros and cons are so patently out of kilter.

audreyanne said:

Charles, you wrote: 'It's only fatal in countries with poor healthcare systems.' Although I can see where you are coming from I don't think that's really true, is it, if you stop and think about it?

Actually, no, I didn't.

I wrote "mortality is nowhere near 70% in countries with functioning healthcare systems"

That is something complete different to what you seem to think my view is.

Plato said:

I once had banana poisoning - really. It takes a great many, but it's possible. I thought it was my imagination that I felt so dreadful, but I mentioned in passing to a consultant after the event, and he'd seen a case of it before.

Most peculiar.

PAW said:

Clearly vegans are an inferior species, and will not survive - paracetemol poisoning - Vegans very at risk, a Lemsip and a Night Nurse was enough to overdose a Vegan stage manager a few years back. I wish they would sell safe paracetemol (with the antidote included), it almost made it onto the statute book.

At least you can't get this one Plato !

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-2786487/Man-agonising-17-hour-erection-three-pints-blood-drained-penis.html

Regarding Ebola, I would say it is not a major threat to this country but is still a big deal for the world as a whole. Unlike say avian flu or swine flu, it is not airborne and there is less reason for mass panic in the short term but in the medium term it is growing exponentially:

On 5th of October there were 8,033 official cases
On 3rd September there were 4,001 official cases
On 4th August there were 1,711 official cases

So the number of cases is doubling every month. And this is the official number of cases, the unofficial number is believed to be 2.5x higher

The WHO have a 3 month roadmap to bring the outbreak under control by the end of November. The situation in there latest update is not promising though: http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/136020/1/roadmapsitrep_8Oct2014_eng.pdf?ua=1

The graph for Sierra Leone is still dramatically increasing. The graph for Liberia is actually falling but this is due to difficulties in actually collecting the data as labs struggle to cope with testing patients

Liberia has a fifth and Sierra Leone a quarter of the number of beds required.

As the number of cases increases, it also increases the chance of it spreading to other countries. This report calculates about a 20% chance of a case in the UK by the end of the month:

http://www.mobs-lab.org/ebola.html

It is worth noting that Nigeria had an outbreak, which they managed to control as they have one of the best healthcare systems in Africa. Despite this 1 index case infected 19 other people and 7 died.

The big danger is that there are cases in other African countries, which are not sufficiently controlled, leading to further major outbreaks (Ghana, Senegal and Ivory Coast are all seen as having higher risk of cases).

I once had banana poisoning - really. It takes a great many....

Not if they're in daquiri form....

Pulpstar said:

Plato said:

I once had banana poisoning - really. It takes a great many, but it's possible. I thought it was my imagination that I felt so dreadful, but I mentioned in passing to a consultant after the event, and he'd seen a case of it before.

Most peculiar.

PAW said:

Clearly vegans are an inferior species, and will not survive - paracetemol poisoning - Vegans very at risk, a Lemsip and a Night Nurse was enough to overdose a Vegan stage manager a few years back. I wish they would sell safe paracetemol (with the antidote included), it almost made it onto the statute book.

At least you can't get this one Plato !

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-2786487/Man-agonising-17-hour-erection-three-pints-blood-drained-penis.html

Puts a 21st century slant on Han****'s Blood Donor sketch.

"3 pints? That's very nearly a ****ful!"

I wonder if it might be possible for long term jobless to trial work without losing sickness benefit if they fail?

Socrates said:

matt said:

Speedy said:

Charles said:

MikeK said:

TheWatcher said:

Speedy said:

Bad news for us.
http://www.channel4.com/news/is-the-uk-equipped-for-an-ebola-outbreak

"A British man suspected of contracting the Ebola virus has died in Macedonia, a senior Macedonian government official confirmed, adding that the victim is thought to have travelled from Britain.

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Reuters a second Briton had also shown symptoms of the virus.

He said the two had been staying at a hotel in the capital Skopje and that hotel staff and the ambulance crew that took them in for treatment had been put into isolation."

That means they had the disease while they where in the UK.

If the media get wind of a massive order of body bags, and Roger gets a call to make a public information film, we're screwed.

That means they had the disease while they where in the UK.

If true there has been a massive breach of medical standards somewhere.

Where did William Pooley, the patient treated at the Royal Free Hospital for the Ebola virus, go after he was discharged from the hospital on September 3rd?

Could he have been discharged prematurely? After all there is not that much knowledge of how the virus develops and alters in the medical world.

LSHTM is all over this - Peter Piot is advising the govenment personally.

The virus can be relatively easily treated with good hygiene, fluids and salts. Mortality is nowhere near 70% if you have a functioning healthcare system.

Le Pen is already making a move in France.
http://www.huffingtonpost.fr/2014/10/09/ebola-front-national-suspendre-liaisons-aeriennes-pays-touches_n_5958204.html?utm_hp_ref=sante

She is asking for suspension of air links with countries suffering from the epidemic.

To borrow someone else's phrase, all this proves is that it's catnip for racist xenophobes.

What the hell is racist about trying to combat the spread of a disease?

There's very little in the article to suggest that this is based on careful consideration of the effect on the rate of transmission and the effect on the people of those countries carrying out would be otherwise lawful movement.

Le Pen clearly believes this to be a low cost, high impact promise, politically speaking, both of which are true because the section of the public to which she appeals is racist and/or willfully ignorant: that air traffic to these countries is of little value anyway; that the percentage of people with the disease in those countries is meaningfully high.

Not a fan of the Sun now posting the YouGovs later than they used to!

PAW said:

I wonder if it might be possible for long term jobless to trial work without losing sickness benefit if they fail?

Yes, work trials are possible. You can also do "permitted work" - part time work under 16hpw and earning up to £104 which you can do for up to a year without it affecting your benefits, in most cases. But only if you are claiming an ill-health benefit such as ESA.

Danny565 said:

PAW said:

I wonder if it might be possible for long term jobless to trial work without losing sickness benefit if they fail?

Voluntary work is the best way of getting the long-term jobless gradually into a routine of working, but without the "pressure" of a proper job right away.

There is a difference between those who are jobless and those who are on long term health-related benefits - the system needs to deal with this a lot more fairly. Some people may never be well enough to return to work - and should not be subject to constant checks and pressure - as it can make their conditions worse.

RodCrosby said:

Boulton: "two declarations that could change the face of British politics..."

Or not.

The results to be announced in the next hours have pretty much been factored in.

The only thing that would really cause a change would be for UKIP to win both - and most experts have discounted that as possibility.

oxfordsimon said:

Danny565 said:

PAW said:

I wonder if it might be possible for long term jobless to trial work without losing sickness benefit if they fail?

Voluntary work is the best way of getting the long-term jobless gradually into a routine of working, but without the "pressure" of a proper job right away.

There is a difference between those who are jobless and those who are on long term health-related benefits - the system needs to deal with this a lot more fairly. Some people may never be well enough to return to work - and should not be subject to constant checks and pressure - as it can make their conditions worse.

Unfortunately the current system appears unable to discriminate. GPs are all too happy to tell people "you'll never work again", maybe as expectation management. Whereas you not only get people in the Work related Group who are really not well enough to work and may never be - it is not uncommon for people in the Support Group to go back into work as well.

@stephentall: To confirm there will be no @libdemvoice live-blog of tonight's lost deposits.

I wonder if caesar dressing would work on my steak, or black cherry yogourt - the only possibilities in my fridge?

@Claire_Phipps: World-beating placement of a promoted tweet http://t.co/KmAVoFa4WC

Plato - I do lightly dust a steak with icing sugar...

Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn

YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead back to 5 points - LAB 35%, CON 30%, UKIP 15%, LD 9%. Tory conference bounce looks to be over

Almost entirely down to the UKIP vote going up again, the Labour vote is still 3 points down on where it was before Cameron spoke, Rochester is going to be ever more important