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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » By-Election Preview : October 9th 2014

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  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312
    PAW said:

    I wonder if caesar dressing would work on my steak, or black cherry yogourt - the only possibilities in my fridge?

    Why sauce a steak? As it is, bloody, with black pepper, and freshly-made English mustard on the side.

  • That's the lowest Tory score with YouGov since 9 Sep.

    Pretty miserable Labour score too - but at least slightly better than it has been.
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    Plato - would you put the steak under the grill to finish the caesar dressing.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited October 2014
    OT Quick Metallica question - not my cup of tea as I don't like Thrash Metal [I gather they're in the same stable as Anthrax - it was Ebola that got me thinking..., Slayer and Megadeath...] but they've released 37 singles and sold 150m albums. And I don't have any of them.

    Any fans out there who can tell me what their top three tracks are? Wiki is just too full of info. I'd forgotten they got very pissed at Napster - that feels like a lot longer than 14yrs ago. Funny that we were talking about Kodak just the other day too.
    Yale and Indiana complied and blocked the service from its campuses, and Metallica withdrew the universities' inclusion from the lawsuit.[50] USC, however, had a meeting with students to decide how it should deal with Napster. School administrators wanted it banned because its use accounted for 40% of the bandwidth that was not being used for educational purposes.[51]

    Metallica hired online consulting firm NetPD to monitor the Napster service for a weekend. A list of 335,435 Napster users who were believed to be sharing Metallica's music was compiled, and the 60,000-page document was delivered to Napster's office. Metallica requested that the users be banned from the service.[52] The users were banned. Rap artist Dr. Dre joined the lawsuit against Napster, resulting in the banning of an additional 230,142 Napster users.[53]
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    edited October 2014
    JohnLilburne - I will be frying chips!
  • PAW said:

    Lucky for Labour David Cameron won't be making any speeches in the election campaign.

    Remember that Ed had two great speeches in 2013 and 2012, a bad one this year but may well have learned his lesson.

    We were assured on here that the Tory lead was sticky. It has collapsed, even after two whole weeks of government conferences in which Labour was under purdah and not able to fight back.

    That must worry the Conservatives.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Metallica - Enter Sandman, Nothing Else Matters, The Unforgiven probably..

    Top Tip - if you have (free) Spotify you can usually judge what are the most accessible songs by a band by sorting by "plays" - which is the default.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Oh, I don't think so...
    PAW said:

    Plato - would you put the steak under the grill to finish the caesar dressing.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead now five points: CON 30%, LAB 35%, LD 9%, UKIP 15%, GRN 5%

    Hurrah
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    The best thing for Ed is that no one listens to them. They are too soundbitery - do you remember that frighful interview where he kept repeating himself?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    @audreysnne


    Just to be clear, I'm not a medic, but I get involved in funding the development of therapies for unmet medical needs, as well as sitting on a couple of Boards in the space. My knowledge about Ebola comes from the works I do with the London School of Hygiene and Trooical Medicine, which as you might imagine is at the forefront o the fight against ebola
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead back to 5 points - LAB 35%, CON 30%, UKIP 15%, LD 9%. Tory conference bounce looks to be over.

    Dreadful Tory score: worst for exactly a month and hasn't been lower since last year.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    Newsnight Labour to UKIP working class voters may not have voted in as large enough numbers as they had hoped, meaning Carswell's majority may be lower than expected
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312
    PAW said:

    JohnLilburne - I will be frying chips!

    And chips, obviously. With mayo.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,880
    Heywood UKIP confident of taking more than 30%
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    9% is virtually cleggmania
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Plato said:

    Charles said:

    » show previous quotes
    I know Peter Piot, the leading world expert in ebola quite well.
    Now that's what I call topical name-dropping!

    I've known the treasurer of LSHTM (Peter is the Director) for many years and he bullied me into jining a few of their committees...
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead back to 5 points - LAB 35%, CON 30%, UKIP 15%, LD 9%. Tory conference bounce looks to be over.

    Dreadful Tory score: worst for exactly a month and hasn't been lower since last year.
    Other others on 11% - 35% not red or blue.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    QT from Clacton, lets see if it's any different.
  • saddosaddo Posts: 534

    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead back to 5 points - LAB 35%, CON 30%, UKIP 15%, LD 9%. Tory conference bounce looks to be over.

    Dreadful Tory score: worst for exactly a month and hasn't been lower since last year.
    Labour appear to discovered the secret of good opinion poll scores. Keep Ed hidden. That'll work well in an election campaign.
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    If any Tories had any aspirations for a majority Tory government I fear they will disappear tonight.After the Scottish poll indicating a loss of 30 seats to the SNP,those who hold positions on a majority Labour government,should be equally worried.GE2015 is going to be one where Ukip and SNP,with the Greens and the Libs ,on life support but still there, are going to split the 2 party system probably for good.There could be any number of possible permutations.The SNP-Tory link up is unlikely.The SNP will have learnt from Labour's toxicity in becoming the red Tories by linking up with the Tories.They are unlikely to make
    the same mistake.
    It
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    MikeK said:

    QT from Clacton, lets see if it's any different.

    Indeed will be good to see a change.
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    Wot no "is this what's driving the increasing Labour lead" thread?

    Lol.

    When's Mike back?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    O'Flynn should be a good pick for UKIP.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2014
    Bloody hell - Peter Kellner thinks the Labour majority in Heywood & Middleton may be as low as 2,000 votes.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    First QT question from a plant.

    Should imagine the Farage disowning the manifesto might come up.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Super - thanx, will give them a go. I've only tried Spotify twice and either they didn't have what I was looking for or the recommendations were a bit odd, so I gave in.

    I'm also trying to expand my 50s/early 60s section and it's just too far back for me to recollect... so I'm prodding about in the dark a lot. All my favourites appear to be One Hit Wonders or oddities that weren't standard catalogue fodder for the artist. Most frustrating - I ended up tripping over Freddie And His Dreaming Knights whilst looking for the mariachi version of Sing C'est La Vie... It filled the slot but not the cover I was after...
    TGOHF said:

    Metallica - Enter Sandman, Nothing Else Matters, The Unforgiven probably..

    Top Tip - if you have (free) Spotify you can usually judge what are the most accessible songs by a band by sorting by "plays" - which is the default.

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Clacton is - supposedly - the Conservatives 86th safest seat.

    Surely a loss tonight in Clacton will be terrible for Ed
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    It makes NI a player too.NI parties will be making their pitch.They could be the deciding factor.
  • HughHugh Posts: 955
    That Tory supporting Sun/YouGov rogue poll showing a Tory lead was extraordinarily well-timed for the Tory supporting Sun / Times / Tories though.

    Spooky statistical coincidence.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    saddo said:

    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead back to 5 points - LAB 35%, CON 30%, UKIP 15%, LD 9%. Tory conference bounce looks to be over.

    Dreadful Tory score: worst for exactly a month and hasn't been lower since last year.
    Labour appear to discovered the secret of good opinion poll scores. Keep Ed hidden. That'll work well in an election campaign.
    You jest, but it wouldn't be totally unprecedented. I was reading a while ago that in one of the 1974 elections, Wilson was unpopular, and the likes of Denis Healey and Shirley Williams were actually given more prominent roles in the election campaign than him.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    AndyJS said:

    Bloody hell - Peter Kellner thinks the Labour majority in Heywood & Middleton may be as low as 2,000 votes.

    I predicted 5% earlier
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Hugh said:

    That Tory supporting Sun/YouGov rogue poll showing a Tory lead was extraordinarily well-timed for the Tory supporting Sun / Times / Tories though.

    Spooky statistical coincidence.

    There were two Tory leads.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Plato said:

    Charles said:

    » show previous quotes
    I know Peter Piot, the leading world expert in ebola quite well.
    Now that's what I call topical name-dropping!
    Well perhaps Charles should listen to his acquaintance then?

    "This should be a lesson for everybody that you can't overreact. You can't overprotect," Peter Piot said after tests confirmed a 40-year-old nurse at a Madrid hospital had become the first person to contract Ebola outside Africa.

    "Dealing with patients with Ebola ... is very risky business, and the slightest mistake can be fatal," said the Belgian scientist who co-discovered the Ebola virus in 1976.

    "It's better to be accused of overreacting than to not take all the measures," he told reporters in Geneva.


    http://news.yahoo.com/cant-overprotect-against-ebola-virus-pioneer-212358125.html

    All I said was that properly treated mortality is less than 70%!

    And in the story above Peter is talking about hospital protocols to avoid transmission
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    HYUFD said:

    Heywood UKIP confident of taking more than 30%

    Lets see on that one. If the Labour majority is around 2k as Kellner says, then it'll be an excellent UKIP result. Can't wait for the Clacton declaration, hope Carswell's majority is over 10,000 and that should encourage a few of the Tory MP's on the fence about defecting to UKIP.

    Tonight will be a great testomony to the localism politics that Carswell has fostered, and he is one of the very few MP's that understands the realities of the modern financial system we live in. I only wish there were a lot more MP's with the far sightedness that he has.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    Clacton is - supposedly - the Conservatives 86th safest seat.

    Surely a loss tonight in Clacton will be terrible for Ed

    Hope they do a computer projection. (^_-)
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited October 2014
    hunchman said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heywood UKIP confident of taking more than 30%


    Tonight will be a great testomony to the localism politics that Carswell has fostered, .
    Carswell lives in Fulham - and declined an open primary for selection.
  • HughHugh Posts: 955

    Clacton is - supposedly - the Conservatives 86th safest seat.

    Surely a loss tonight in Clacton will be terrible for Ed

    Time for Cameron to ditch the 40/40 strategy in favour of a, I dunno, 2/100 strategy perhaps?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    If the Labour majority in Heywood is only 2,000 it would be a dismal result for them and pretty amazing for UKIP. The two polls in the constituency indicated a majority of about 7,000.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    What % drop would that translate into?
    AndyJS said:

    Bloody hell - Peter Kellner thinks the Labour majority in Heywood & Middleton may be as low as 2,000 votes.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited October 2014
    Both polls in Heywood put Labour 19% ahead. 2,000 votes would be about 5%.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Clegg took Vince with him everywhere during the early part of the 2010 campaign, then Cleggmania kicked off and Vince was left on the battlebus...
    Danny565 said:

    saddo said:

    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead back to 5 points - LAB 35%, CON 30%, UKIP 15%, LD 9%. Tory conference bounce looks to be over.

    Dreadful Tory score: worst for exactly a month and hasn't been lower since last year.
    Labour appear to discovered the secret of good opinion poll scores. Keep Ed hidden. That'll work well in an election campaign.
    You jest, but it wouldn't be totally unprecedented. I was reading a while ago that in one of the 1974 elections, Wilson was unpopular, and the likes of Denis Healey and Shirley Williams were actually given more prominent roles in the election campaign than him.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Plato said:

    What % drop would that translate into?

    AndyJS said:

    Bloody hell - Peter Kellner thinks the Labour majority in Heywood & Middleton may be as low as 2,000 votes.

    A lot less than the Tory collapse in Clacton methinks.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    If any Tories had any aspirations for a majority Tory government I fear they will disappear tonight.After the Scottish poll indicating a loss of 30 seats to the SNP,those who hold positions on a majority Labour government,should be equally worried.GE2015 is going to be one where Ukip and SNP,with the Greens and the Libs ,on life support but still there, are going to split the 2 party system probably for good.There could be any number of possible permutations.The SNP-Tory link up is unlikely.The SNP will have learnt from Labour's toxicity in becoming the red Tories by linking up with the Tories.They are unlikely to make
    the same mistake.
    It

    Exactly the point I made first on here. Neither Labour or the Tories deserve a majority in any event.
  • Well Labour have regained a 5pt lead despite being gagged for two weeks because of conference purdah. They lost the final conference season on any fair analysis but, thanks to the Tory collapse, have a similar lead to when it began.

    I have been saying for a while that the Tory deficit amnesia at their conference "paying down the debt" and tax cuts could leave them as hostages to fortune.
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    Wot no "is this what's driving the increasing Labour lead" thread? - problem is Labour's vote is crashing - in by elections when they are the main opposition.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    TGOHF said:

    hunchman said:

    HYUFD said:

    Heywood UKIP confident of taking more than 30%


    Tonight will be a great testomony to the localism politics that Carswell has fostered, .
    Carswell lives in Fulham - and declined an open primary for selection.
    That's near to where he works, but you can't say he isn't seen out and about in Clacton a hell of a lot. Tonight's result is enough vindication of that.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    edited October 2014

    Clacton is - supposedly - the Conservatives 86th safest seat.

    Surely a loss tonight in Clacton will be terrible for Ed

    Depends on what Ed's loss is, I suppose. There's nothing clever about being the main party of opposition nationally, starting second in a seat behind the main party of government, and then going backwards in position, votes and share.
  • AndyJS said:

    If the Labour majority in Heywood is only 2,000 it would be a dismal result for them and pretty amazing for UKIP. The two polls in the constituency indicated a majority of about 7,000.

    Up to a point. But a hold is a hold and they'll win the seat at a canter at the GE.

    The story is likely to be about a Tory trouncing in Essex.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    I think most have always expected UKIP to win Clacton with the sitting MP, haven't they?

    But for UKIP to come reasonably close to winning in the NW? Can't believe it. I expected Labour to stroll home.

    I still find it hard to believe that UKIP would even get to within 10 points of Labour in that seat.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,693
    AndyJS said:

    Both polls in Heywood put Labour 19% ahead. 2,000 votes would be about 5%.

    If that's true then Rochester & Strood might be value.

  • From the Guardian live blog:

    22:28 According to Tory sources, the turnout in Clacton is expected to be around 45/50%. That would be high for a byelection.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2014/oct/09/clacton-and-heywood-byelection-results-tories-expect-defeat-in-clacton-politics-live-blog
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Wonderful article on the brainless actions of the ECB - negative interest rates were going to spur lending and get the Euro area economy moving. Precisely the opposite is happening - what a surprise that the mainstream are so wrong on this, like so many other issues!

    http://armstrongeconomics.com/2014/10/09/ecb-negative-interest-rates-send-money-to-dollars/

    And I was first on here to alert PB'ers to the great upcoming dollar bull market. Its going to be one hell of a ride. We've had the first flush of it, need to currently correct and consolidate that first movement, before we can move higher in earnest. Its going to be an awesome thing to latch onto. And the US stockmarket should be good once we get this necessary correction out of the way over the next 6 weeks or so.
  • PAW said:

    Wot no "is this what's driving the increasing Labour lead" thread? - problem is Labour's vote is crashing - in by elections when they are the main opposition.

    The Tories are about to get stuffed in a safe Tory seat and we are taking about a Labour hold being bad for Ed.

    Only on PB.
  • Well Labour have regained a 5pt lead despite being gagged for two weeks because of conference purdah. They lost the final conference season on any fair analysis but, thanks to the Tory collapse, have a similar lead to when it began.

    I have been saying for a while that the Tory deficit amnesia at their conference "paying down the debt" and tax cuts could leave them as hostages to fortune.

    Yes, the "paying down" which has seen debt rise 44%......
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,693
    edited October 2014

    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead back to 5 points - LAB 35%, CON 30%, UKIP 15%, LD 9%. Tory conference bounce looks to be over.

    Dreadful Tory score: worst for exactly a month and hasn't been lower since last year.
    Chillax. It's only one poll, right at the end of conference season.

    It's clear what will happen to Labour and Conservative poll ratings when minds are focussed on the general election. Although I expect that if UKIP do well, and it looks like they will, then over the next month or two things will get edgy again for the Tories.

    But things should then pick up again in January. Next year is the home run, and both contenders are more or less at parity.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Turnout 50%.
  • PAW said:

    Wot no "is this what's driving the increasing Labour lead" thread? - problem is Labour's vote is crashing - in by elections when they are the main opposition.

    The Tories are about to get stuffed in a safe Tory seat and we are taking about a Labour hold being bad for Ed.

    Only on PB.
    Watch the betting markets, Bob.

    The Billy Bunters don't always get it right, but they don't bullshit.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Surely Tory PBers should have an early night rather than spin that LAB is having a worse night than the Tories when that patently will not be the case.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,693
    Right, enough fun for one day kids. I'm politicked out - time to hit the woolsack.

    Good luck to those of you with by-election bets.

    Laterz.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    The Tories are about to get stuffed in a safe Tory seat and we are taking about a Labour hold being bad for Ed.

    Only on PB.

    Apart from changing rosettes, what's different about Carswell?

    He's like a right wing Galloway. It doesn't matter what they have pinned on their suits, we all know where they stand.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Public finances balanced in 2017 - wait WHAT ?!
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    @TCPoliticalBetting‌ - Oh, I recognise all three of those. Nothing like Slayer or Megadeath at all. I think I'll get the album.

    Reminds me of Nickelback a lot, whom I love [well Chad Kroeger's voice mostly]. Their stuff has been used as OST fodder a lot.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead back to 5 points - LAB 35%, CON 30%, UKIP 15%, LD 9%. Tory conference bounce looks to be over.

    Dreadful Tory score: worst for exactly a month and hasn't been lower since last year.
    Chillax. It's only one poll, right at the end of conference season.

    It's clear what will happen to Labour and Conservative poll ratings when minds are focussed on the general election. Although I expect that if UKIP do well, and it looks like they will, then over the next month or two things will get edgy again for the Tories.

    But things should then pick up again in January. Next year is the home run, and both contenders are more or less at parity.
    So all the Tory PB'ers on here who thought a bright new dawn had arrived, get a hard reality check. They can talk all they like about economic recovery etc, the real voters out there know better..........
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,693
    hunchman said:

    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead back to 5 points - LAB 35%, CON 30%, UKIP 15%, LD 9%. Tory conference bounce looks to be over.

    Dreadful Tory score: worst for exactly a month and hasn't been lower since last year.
    Chillax. It's only one poll, right at the end of conference season.

    It's clear what will happen to Labour and Conservative poll ratings when minds are focussed on the general election. Although I expect that if UKIP do well, and it looks like they will, then over the next month or two things will get edgy again for the Tories.

    But things should then pick up again in January. Next year is the home run, and both contenders are more or less at parity.
    So all the Tory PB'ers on here who thought a bright new dawn had arrived, get a hard reality check. They can talk all they like about economic recovery etc, the real voters out there know better..........
    Yes, and they will all speak next May. By-elections aren't about picking governments.

    I'm backing my judgements with a lot of money. Are you?
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Pulpstar said:

    Public finances balanced in 2017 - wait WHAT ?!

    Well I said at the time that it was pie in the sky that the PSBR would be zero in 2015. Running a £100bn plus deficit 5 and a half years into a recovery....at this stage in the cycle they should be running a surplus, let alone a deficit of that size. In reality, they never had a chance of meeting that target given the demographics, indebted world economy, but you couldn't tell Cameron and Osborne that in 2010 - they simply didn't want to know.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    hunchman said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Public finances balanced in 2017 - wait WHAT ?!

    Well I said at the time that it was pie in the sky that the PSBR would be zero in 2015. Running a £100bn plus deficit 5 and a half years into a recovery....at this stage in the cycle they should be running a surplus, let alone a deficit of that size. In reality, they never had a chance of meeting that target given the demographics, indebted world economy, but you couldn't tell Cameron and Osborne that in 2010 - they simply didn't want to know.
    Malcolm Bruce said it on QT - fantasy land.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    hunchman said:

    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead back to 5 points - LAB 35%, CON 30%, UKIP 15%, LD 9%. Tory conference bounce looks to be over.

    Dreadful Tory score: worst for exactly a month and hasn't been lower since last year.
    Chillax. It's only one poll, right at the end of conference season.

    It's clear what will happen to Labour and Conservative poll ratings when minds are focussed on the general election. Although I expect that if UKIP do well, and it looks like they will, then over the next month or two things will get edgy again for the Tories.

    But things should then pick up again in January. Next year is the home run, and both contenders are more or less at parity.
    So all the Tory PB'ers on here who thought a bright new dawn had arrived, get a hard reality check. They can talk all they like about economic recovery etc, the real voters out there know better..........
    Yes, and they will all speak next May. By-elections aren't about picking governments.

    I'm backing my judgements with a lot of money. Are you?
    Am currently reviewing my options. SNP seats could tempt me in Scotland if the price is right.

    Am seeing better opportunities personally in the financial markets by riding the oncoming bull market in the US Dollar, and US stocks once we get this correction out of the way. US stocks will be excellent for a GBP investor with the rising Dollar as well.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,693
    hunchman said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Public finances balanced in 2017 - wait WHAT ?!

    Well I said at the time that it was pie in the sky that the PSBR would be zero in 2015. Running a £100bn plus deficit 5 and a half years into a recovery....at this stage in the cycle they should be running a surplus, let alone a deficit of that size. In reality, they never had a chance of meeting that target given the demographics, indebted world economy, but you couldn't tell Cameron and Osborne that in 2010 - they simply didn't want to know.
    Interesting. You manage to criticise Cameron/Osborne for not running a surplus given the stage they're at in the economic cycle, then criticise them for promising it in the first place, because it's impossible to do - kindly listing the reasons.

    In the same post.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    hunchman said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Public finances balanced in 2017 - wait WHAT ?!

    Well I said at the time that it was pie in the sky that the PSBR would be zero in 2015. Running a £100bn plus deficit 5 and a half years into a recovery....at this stage in the cycle they should be running a surplus, let alone a deficit of that size. In reality, they never had a chance of meeting that target given the demographics, indebted world economy, but you couldn't tell Cameron and Osborne that in 2010 - they simply didn't want to know.
    I would have a bet with anyone on here that the PSBR won't be zero or in surplus in the 2018/19 tax year as the Tories claim.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,693
    hunchman said:

    hunchman said:

    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead back to 5 points - LAB 35%, CON 30%, UKIP 15%, LD 9%. Tory conference bounce looks to be over.

    Dreadful Tory score: worst for exactly a month and hasn't been lower since last year.
    Chillax. It's only one poll, right at the end of conference season.

    It's clear what will happen to Labour and Conservative poll ratings when minds are focussed on the general election. Although I expect that if UKIP do well, and it looks like they will, then over the next month or two things will get edgy again for the Tories.

    But things should then pick up again in January. Next year is the home run, and both contenders are more or less at parity.
    So all the Tory PB'ers on here who thought a bright new dawn had arrived, get a hard reality check. They can talk all they like about economic recovery etc, the real voters out there know better..........
    Yes, and they will all speak next May. By-elections aren't about picking governments.

    I'm backing my judgements with a lot of money. Are you?
    Am currently reviewing my options. SNP seats could tempt me in Scotland if the price is right.

    Am seeing better opportunities personally in the financial markets by riding the oncoming bull market in the US Dollar, and US stocks once we get this correction out of the way. US stocks will be excellent for a GBP investor with the rising Dollar as well.
    So you're not taking a position on the overall outcome of the UK general election then?

    That being the case, I take it you won't criticise punters that do back their judgements with cold hard cash as partisan optimists in future then?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,963
    edited October 2014
    Tories will get smashed by UKIP in a safe Tory seat. Labour won't get smashed by UKIP in a safe Labour seat. But still we're told by PB Tories that actually the kippers are as big a threat to Labour actually, more so when you think about it as actually the kipper voters will actually all come home to the Tories at the GE but actually won't if its Labour. Actually.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    In 2010, Osborne promised a £38bn deficit in 2014/2015.



  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    hunchman said:

    hunchman said:

    Scott_P said:

    @tnewtondunn: YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead back to 5 points - LAB 35%, CON 30%, UKIP 15%, LD 9%. Tory conference bounce looks to be over.

    Dreadful Tory score: worst for exactly a month and hasn't been lower since last year.
    Chillax. It's only one poll, right at the end of conference season.

    It's clear what will happen to Labour and Conservative poll ratings when minds are focussed on the general election. Although I expect that if UKIP do well, and it looks like they will, then over the next month or two things will get edgy again for the Tories.

    But things should then pick up again in January. Next year is the home run, and both contenders are more or less at parity.
    So all the Tory PB'ers on here who thought a bright new dawn had arrived, get a hard reality check. They can talk all they like about economic recovery etc, the real voters out there know better..........
    Yes, and they will all speak next May. By-elections aren't about picking governments.

    I'm backing my judgements with a lot of money. Are you?
    Am currently reviewing my options. SNP seats could tempt me in Scotland if the price is right.

    Am seeing better opportunities personally in the financial markets by riding the oncoming bull market in the US Dollar, and US stocks once we get this correction out of the way. US stocks will be excellent for a GBP investor with the rising Dollar as well.
    So you're not taking a position on the overall outcome of the UK general election then?

    That being the case, I take it you won't criticise punters that do back their judgements with cold hard cash as partisan optimists in future then?
    I've already said that I'm very much of the opinion that neither Labour or the Tories will get an overall majority. I'd like to see the odds for neither Labour + Lib Dem or Tory + Lib Dem producing a majority. That would tempt me greatly if the SNP and UKIP are both doing well into next year.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    edited October 2014
    chestnut said:

    In 2010, Osborne promised a £38bn deficit in 2014/2015.



    And he also said that private debt would increase by £500bn from £1.6trn to £2.1trn over the period 2010-2015. I knew Osborne hadn't got a clue when I saw that prediction. Households were already debt sozzled then, so to think that UK households were going to take on even more debt to that degree was the economics of the madhouse to put it mildly.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Do we know when the estimated declaration times are? 2ish?
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    Tories will get smashed by UKIP in a safe Tory seat.

    Carswell unseats Carswell.
  • A rather defensive Labour spokesman at Heywood on Sky.

    Looks like it must be fairly close there.
  • Plato said:

    Do we know when the estimated declaration times are? 2ish?

    Heywood possibly by 12.30am
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Labour seems to have a fair few supporters in this Clacton audience - representative ?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Pulpstar said:

    Labour seems to have a fair few supporters in this Clacton audience - representative ?

    No the audience has been packed with Lab/Lib/Con.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    chestnut said:

    In 2010, Osborne promised a £38bn deficit in 2014/2015.



    What is the latest forecast for 2014-15
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 6m6 minutes ago
    Waterloo (Blackpool) result:
    CON - 34.5% (-5.3)
    UKIP - 31.6% (+31.6)
    LAB - 29.5% (-17.5)
    LDEM - 2.9% (-10.3)
    BNP - 1.4% (+1.4)
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 9m9 minutes ago
    West Heath (Rushmoor) result:
    UKIP HOLD.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    MikeK said:

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 6m6 minutes ago
    Waterloo (Blackpool) result:
    CON - 34.5% (-5.3)
    UKIP - 31.6% (+31.6)
    LAB - 29.5% (-17.5)
    LDEM - 2.9% (-10.3)
    BNP - 1.4% (+1.4)

    Awful result for Labour !
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Eric having a very bad time on QT
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    edited October 2014
    Labour List: 23.30: Back to good old predictable Clacton. Labour a couple of points behind the Tories, UKIP will probably get over 50% of the vote and here’s the Lib Dems chances of getting their deposit back.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Conservative by-election twitter feed very active:

    https://twitter.com/byelection
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    At around 5pm today, just hours before polls closed, £80M of Heywood & Middleton's NHS was put up for sale >

    According to Andy Burnham although surprised he noticed as he has been on manoeuvres against Ed is Crap all week
  • ZenPaganZenPagan Posts: 689
    Artist said:

    Edit

    as the minus figures from the "establishment" parties almost equals the gains for ukip and bnp I imagine -17.5 is absolutely correct

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    MikeK said:

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 6m6 minutes ago
    Waterloo (Blackpool) result:
    CON - 34.5% (-5.3)
    UKIP - 31.6% (+31.6)
    LAB - 29.5% (-17.5)
    LDEM - 2.9% (-10.3)
    BNP - 1.4% (+1.4)

    If this is a CON hold those figures in brackets are wrong
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    That's a big Labour drop
    MikeK said:

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 6m6 minutes ago
    Waterloo (Blackpool) result:
    CON - 34.5% (-5.3)
    UKIP - 31.6% (+31.6)
    LAB - 29.5% (-17.5)
    LDEM - 2.9% (-10.3)
    BNP - 1.4% (+1.4)

  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    Eric having a very bad time on QT

    Pickles looked tired during the little bit that I saw. Hardly watch QT these days.

    Off topic - very pleased with my new Galaxy S5 phone, so much better on 4G compared to the old 3G networks.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    MikeK said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Labour seems to have a fair few supporters in this Clacton audience - representative ?

    No the audience has been packed with Lab/Lib/Con.
    There is a lot of it about!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    MikeK said:

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 6m6 minutes ago
    Waterloo (Blackpool) result:
    CON - 34.5% (-5.3)
    UKIP - 31.6% (+31.6)
    LAB - 29.5% (-17.5)
    LDEM - 2.9% (-10.3)
    BNP - 1.4% (+1.4)

    If this is a CON hold those figures in brackets are wrong
    Plato said:

    That's a big Labour drop

    MikeK said:

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 6m6 minutes ago
    Waterloo (Blackpool) result:
    CON - 34.5% (-5.3)
    UKIP - 31.6% (+31.6)
    LAB - 29.5% (-17.5)
    LDEM - 2.9% (-10.3)
    BNP - 1.4% (+1.4)

    Has anyone got the previous results if LAB are down by that % it must be a Tory gain but its apparently a hold.

    Anyone help?
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    My thoughts and prayers with Jules Bianchi - I hope we hear a positive update tomorrow: http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/29561538
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    edited October 2014
    Better result for Labour in Crawley.

    Britain Elects @britainelects ·
    Southgate (Crawley) result:
    LAB - 44.1% (+3.5)
    CON - 38.6% (-5.9)
    UKIP - 16.7% (+16.7)
    JUST - 0.6% (+0.6)

    Labour GAIN from Conservatives.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 8m8 minutes ago
    Southgate (Crawley) result:
    Labour GAIN from Conservative
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Whilst we're waiting - I see that the chaps arrested for terrorism have been described by their neighbours...

    "The suspects in the alleged terror plot were last night described as “laid back, normal guys” who enjoyed playing football..."
This discussion has been closed.