The reason people smoke is mainly because it is enjoyable.
I have recently given up – switching to vaping, which is also enjoyable.
It's not possible for people who have never smoked to grasp why smoking is enjoyable I guess.
I have smoked, Bob, and it is enjoyable. But so are the things it displaces, like good health.
The enjoyment however comes from the addiction and is part of it. The puzzle is that people ever start, knowing that it is seriously addictive and has seriously damaging consequences.
I really do find it difficult to avoid viewing smoking as synonymous with stupidity.
A lot of people smoke for self-medication - nicotine is neuroprotective in Schizophrenia, Depression and Alzheimers. In fact, if you smoke, and you're in an at-risk group, you're less likely to get Schizophrenia than if you don't.
"and the fact it doesn't become contagious until symptoms manifest" - but the point is that the person will become contagious before it can be detected. I am sure the population in the affected areas are on the look out for the slightest sniffle, but the disease still spreads.
The Black Death still spread even though deaths occurred within a few days of infection, Ebola seems to have a much greater chance of spreading because the period from contagious to incapacitation seems to be much greater.
"and the fact it doesn't become contagious until symptoms manifest" - but the point is that the person will become contagious before it can be detected. I am sure the population in the affected areas are on the look out for the slightest sniffle, but the disease still spreads.
The Black Death still spread even though deaths occurred within a few days of infection, Ebola seems to have a much greater chance of spreading because the period from contagious to incapacitation seems to be much greater.
It's still undeniable that if someone was contagious in the incubation period it would make the disease much harder to contain.
The local paper in Clacton is going to produce a souvenir issue. How many by-elections get that treatment!
"THE Gazette will have live coverage of the Clacton by-election on this website throughout the night, with the result expected at about 3am tomorrow.
We will also be publishing a special Election Gazette, available in major retail outlets tomorrow morning, with the result and all the reaction to the by-election."
"A British man suspected of contracting the Ebola virus has died in Macedonia, a senior Macedonian government official confirmed, adding that the victim is thought to have travelled from Britain.
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Reuters a second Briton had also shown symptoms of the virus.
He said the two had been staying at a hotel in the capital Skopje and that hotel staff and the ambulance crew that took them in for treatment had been put into isolation."
That means they had the disease while they where in the UK.
If the media get wind of a massive order of body bags, and Roger gets a call to make a public information film, we're screwed.
That means they had the disease while they where in the UK.
If true there has been a massive breach of medical standards somewhere.
Where did William Pooley, the patient treated at the Royal Free Hospital for the Ebola virus, go after he was discharged from the hospital on September 3rd?
Could he have been discharged prematurely? After all there is not that much knowledge of how the virus develops and alters in the medical world.
LSHTM is all over this - Peter Piot is advising the govenment personally.
The virus can be relatively easily treated with good hygiene, fluids and salts. Mortality is nowhere near 70% if you have a functioning healthcare system.
The local paper in Clacton is going to produce a souvenir issue. How many by-elections get that treatment!
"THE Gazette will have live coverage of the Clacton by-election on this website throughout the night, with the result expected at about 3am tomorrow.
We will also be publishing a special Election Gazette, available in major retail outlets tomorrow morning, with the result and all the reaction to the by-election."
"Nippon Television, based in Japan, and Voice of Russia will be at the count at Clacton Town Hall tonight, along with all the major British news organisations."
The reason people smoke is mainly because it is enjoyable.
I have recently given up – switching to vaping, which is also enjoyable.
It's not possible for people who have never smoked to grasp why smoking is enjoyable I guess.
I have smoked, Bob, and it is enjoyable. But so are the things it displaces, like good health.
The enjoyment however comes from the addiction and is part of it. The puzzle is that people ever start, knowing that it is seriously addictive and has seriously damaging consequences.
I really do find it difficult to avoid viewing smoking as synonymous with stupidity.
A lot of people smoke for self-medication - nicotine is neuroprotective in Schizophrenia, Depression and Alzheimers. In fact, if you smoke, and you're in an at-risk group, you're less likely to get Schizophrenia than if you don't.
Erm...exactly what percentage of all smokers do so for that reason?
There isn't any of the Black population that is so sensitive of their skin colour they would rather take the risk of Ebola than block the flights. People realise they would be the first to be infected.
Then you have misunderstood. If you trace most of the sources of a lot of the more lunatic PC'ness you will often find that it is not a community being offended but some guardianista type believing they should be offended and therefore acting upon their behalf.
My son's school was a typical example where they were going to have winterval but not christmas but it wasn't the muslims, sikhs and hindu's complaining that caused it. In fact they were as vociferous in objecting to christmas being gone as anyone. (The school ditched the idea in the end)
The local paper in Clacton is going to produce a souvenir issue. How many by-elections get that treatment!
"THE Gazette will have live coverage of the Clacton by-election on this website throughout the night, with the result expected at about 3am tomorrow.
We will also be publishing a special Election Gazette, available in major retail outlets tomorrow morning, with the result and all the reaction to the by-election."
"Nippon Television, based in Japan, and Voice of Russia will be at the count at Clacton Town Hall tonight, along with all the major British news organisations."
The reason people smoke is mainly because it is enjoyable.
I have recently given up – switching to vaping, which is also enjoyable.
It's not possible for people who have never smoked to grasp why smoking is enjoyable I guess.
I have smoked, Bob, and it is enjoyable. But so are the things it displaces, like good health.
The enjoyment however comes from the addiction and is part of it. The puzzle is that people ever start, knowing that it is seriously addictive and has seriously damaging consequences.
I really do find it difficult to avoid viewing smoking as synonymous with stupidity.
A lot of people smoke for self-medication - nicotine is neuroprotective in Schizophrenia, Depression and Alzheimers. In fact, if you smoke, and you're in an at-risk group, you're less likely to get Schizophrenia than if you don't.
Erm...exactly what percentage of all smokers do so for that reason?
That's unanswerable. The point is, it isn't entirely synonymous with stupidity.
If you actually honestly believe this BNP canard UKIP has adopted - that there is no difference between Cameron and Miliband's respective parties - then either your analytical abilities are very seriously deficient, or you are simply not paying attention. That's not intended as an attack; it's a statement of what is surely obvious.
In certain areas, of course they are similar. They completely agree that murder should be illegal, for example; that there should be schools; that war should not be declared on France.
This doesn't make them the same.
I also find it extraordinary that you seem to feel that, as there isn't a party that represents every single one of your views precisely, it's just fine for one that should be utter anathema to you to get in by default. Somehow this outcome nothing to do with your action or inaction.
You do realise that this is precisely what happened in the 80s? That Thatcher won majorities on a declining vote share because the two lefty parties let her in? How do you think they feel about themselves now for letting that happen? Would the political spectrum today be to the left of where it is now, or to the right, had Kinnock got in in 1987 or 1992?
Very few UKIPpers seem to have given this any genuine thought. What one gets is a rant about how others somehow feel entitled to their votes, that they can do as they like, and they're not liable for the consequences of their deeds and choices.
This is the very definition of irresponsibility. What we are entitled to expect of other voters is that they reflect on what they are doing when they cast a vote and are big enough to own the consequences.
I hope you're recovering from this meltdown in a nice quiet room with the lights off. I won't labour the content (it wouldn't be kind), but I will say it sounds to me like you've talked yourself into supporting UKIP in Clacton, Rochester, and Heywood. In every case, UKIP are ahead of the Tories, and in two they are the incumbent. I hope you're not selfishly, capriciously and peevishly going to divide the right and risk a Labour government by supporting the Tories. After all, I'm sure you're far too sensible to insist on supporting a party that represents every single one of your views precisely, and risk allowing one that is utter anathema to you to get in.
The local paper in Clacton is going to produce a souvenir issue. How many by-elections get that treatment!
"THE Gazette will have live coverage of the Clacton by-election on this website throughout the night, with the result expected at about 3am tomorrow.
We will also be publishing a special Election Gazette, available in major retail outlets tomorrow morning, with the result and all the reaction to the by-election."
"Nippon Television, based in Japan, and Voice of Russia will be at the count at Clacton Town Hall tonight, along with all the major British news organisations."
Ebola will be like bird flu and all the other health panics - totally overblown and hyped up by the press with logical discussion the first casualty. No doubt we will be treated by updates every five minutes by someone who spends their life glued to Sky News.
I have done you a great disservice. I had your card marked as a socialist, so apologies for getting that as badly wrong. Those to have died already in their thousands are black, and far away, right?
Charles, you wrote: 'It's only fatal in countries with poor healthcare systems.' Although I can see where you are coming from I don't think that's really true, is it, if you stop and think about it?
This is a potential disaster, with the emphasis on potential. It may come to nothing much in the west, although it already has in parts of the world. Nothing would give me greater pleasure on this occasion than to accept some smugness from Bob and Charles … but I fear with this one.
The reason people smoke is mainly because it is enjoyable.
I have recently given up – switching to vaping, which is also enjoyable.
It's not possible for people who have never smoked to grasp why smoking is enjoyable I guess.
I have smoked, Bob, and it is enjoyable. But so are the things it displaces, like good health.
The enjoyment however comes from the addiction and is part of it. The puzzle is that people ever start, knowing that it is seriously addictive and has seriously damaging consequences.
I really do find it difficult to avoid viewing smoking as synonymous with stupidity.
Economists actually have what they call the rational addiction model to describe the behaviour of those who have succumbed in a way that doesn't assume they are stupid are crazy.
Years ago, I was reading a discussion of something similar to the puzzle you posed about the conflict between present and future benefits, in a tract on the philosophy of law. Sadly I have forgotten the name of the author, but the basic proposal was that people should be able to draw up binding contracts with their inter-temporal self - the canonical example was for a person attempting to give up smoking to bind his future self not to pick up the fags again, for the benefit of his even-further-future self. The point was that the recognised interests of the further-future self would then gain a legal protection, that could result in enforcement of some kind against future self. A more extreme example was to admit oneself to a rehab clinic for hard drugs - that one's present agreement not to leave the premises and quit the programme, could be enforced against one's future self, even in the event of a change of heart.
As you say, the real mystery is why present-self may take up such a harmful habit in the first instance - essentially it's because one's far-future-self can't warn, or more drastically, legally intervene, but arguably he would if he could! (At least in your case...)
The local paper in Clacton is going to produce a souvenir issue. How many by-elections get that treatment!
"THE Gazette will have live coverage of the Clacton by-election on this website throughout the night, with the result expected at about 3am tomorrow.
We will also be publishing a special Election Gazette, available in major retail outlets tomorrow morning, with the result and all the reaction to the by-election."
"Nippon Television, based in Japan, and Voice of Russia will be at the count at Clacton Town Hall tonight, along with all the major British news organisations."
Best wishes to Harry Hayfield. Hope all's cleared up soon. Your headers are always appreciated, but you're under no obligation to slave away for us! So quit apologising, we'll gladly take what we get given.
"A British man suspected of contracting the Ebola virus has died in Macedonia, a senior Macedonian government official confirmed, adding that the victim is thought to have travelled from Britain.
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Reuters a second Briton had also shown symptoms of the virus.
He said the two had been staying at a hotel in the capital Skopje and that hotel staff and the ambulance crew that took them in for treatment had been put into isolation."
That means they had the disease while they where in the UK.
If the media get wind of a massive order of body bags, and Roger gets a call to make a public information film, we're screwed.
That means they had the disease while they where in the UK.
If true there has been a massive breach of medical standards somewhere.
Where did William Pooley, the patient treated at the Royal Free Hospital for the Ebola virus, go after he was discharged from the hospital on September 3rd?
Could he have been discharged prematurely? After all there is not that much knowledge of how the virus develops and alters in the medical world.
The virus can be relatively easily treated with good hygiene, fluids and salts. Mortality is nowhere near 70% if you have a functioning healthcare system.
You are, actually, talking rot really aren't you? Let's be honest about it? There is no cure for Ebola. Sure, you can take fluids etc. but actually you, white Charles, are no different, from black African. Shock to your system? Maybe it should be.
"A British man suspected of contracting the Ebola virus has died in Macedonia, a senior Macedonian government official confirmed, adding that the victim is thought to have travelled from Britain.
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Reuters a second Briton had also shown symptoms of the virus.
He said the two had been staying at a hotel in the capital Skopje and that hotel staff and the ambulance crew that took them in for treatment had been put into isolation."
That means they had the disease while they where in the UK.
If the media get wind of a massive order of body bags, and Roger gets a call to make a public information film, we're screwed.
That means they had the disease while they where in the UK.
If true there has been a massive breach of medical standards somewhere.
Where did William Pooley, the patient treated at the Royal Free Hospital for the Ebola virus, go after he was discharged from the hospital on September 3rd?
Could he have been discharged prematurely? After all there is not that much knowledge of how the virus develops and alters in the medical world.
The virus can be relatively easily treated with good hygiene, fluids and salts. Mortality is nowhere near 70% if you have a functioning healthcare system.
You are, actually, talking rot really aren't you? Let's be honest about it? There is no cure for Ebola. Sure, you can take fluids etc. but actually you, white Charles, are no different, from black African. Shock to your system? Maybe it should be.
Clearly vegans are an inferior species, and will not survive - paracetemol poisoning - Vegans very at risk, a Lemsip and a Night Nurse was enough to overdose a Vegan stage manager a few years back. I wish they would sell safe paracetemol (with the antidote included), it almost made it onto the statute book.
The local paper in Clacton is going to produce a souvenir issue. How many by-elections get that treatment!
"THE Gazette will have live coverage of the Clacton by-election on this website throughout the night, with the result expected at about 3am tomorrow.
We will also be publishing a special Election Gazette, available in major retail outlets tomorrow morning, with the result and all the reaction to the by-election."
"Nippon Television, based in Japan, and Voice of Russia will be at the count at Clacton Town Hall tonight, along with all the major British news organisations."
The local paper in Clacton is going to produce a souvenir issue. How many by-elections get that treatment!
"THE Gazette will have live coverage of the Clacton by-election on this website throughout the night, with the result expected at about 3am tomorrow.
We will also be publishing a special Election Gazette, available in major retail outlets tomorrow morning, with the result and all the reaction to the by-election."
"Nippon Television, based in Japan, and Voice of Russia will be at the count at Clacton Town Hall tonight, along with all the major British news organisations."
The local paper in Clacton is going to produce a souvenir issue. How many by-elections get that treatment!
"THE Gazette will have live coverage of the Clacton by-election on this website throughout the night, with the result expected at about 3am tomorrow.
We will also be publishing a special Election Gazette, available in major retail outlets tomorrow morning, with the result and all the reaction to the by-election."
"Nippon Television, based in Japan, and Voice of Russia will be at the count at Clacton Town Hall tonight, along with all the major British news organisations."
Clacton to be the centre of the universe for just one night?
We are entering a new Clacton Era.
London? New York? Yesterday's trendsetters!
Clacton Gazette most read:
No.1 Soaring youth interest in UKIP inspires Clacton branch. No.2 Caravan owners devastated by closure of popular holiday park. No.8 Top Tories show a united front in Clacton ahead of poll. No.12 Sex worker named as candidate in Clacton by-election No.13 Labour big-gun hits out at train service as she joins the campaign trail in Clacton No.20 Independent candidate says healthcare needs have been highlighted in by-election battle.
"A British man suspected of contracting the Ebola virus has died in Macedonia, a senior Macedonian government official confirmed, adding that the victim is thought to have travelled from Britain.
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Reuters a second Briton had also shown symptoms of the virus.
He said the two had been staying at a hotel in the capital Skopje and that hotel staff and the ambulance crew that took them in for treatment had been put into isolation."
That means they had the disease while they where in the UK.
If the media get wind of a massive order of body bags, and Roger gets a call to make a public information film, we're screwed.
That means they had the disease while they where in the UK.
If true there has been a massive breach of medical standards somewhere.
Where did William Pooley, the patient treated at the Royal Free Hospital for the Ebola virus, go after he was discharged from the hospital on September 3rd?
Could he have been discharged prematurely? After all there is not that much knowledge of how the virus develops and alters in the medical world.
The virus can be relatively easily treated with good hygiene, fluids and salts. Mortality is nowhere near 70% if you have a functioning healthcare system.
You are, actually, talking rot really aren't you? Let's be honest about it? There is no cure for Ebola. Sure, you can take fluids etc. but actually you, white Charles, are no different, from black African. Shock to your system? Maybe it should be.
Er, is it that time of night again?
The one where you (of all people) call me sanctimonious you mean?
That's true, but if I read it correctly, there may soon be a vaccine.
Let's hope so: that would be brilliant.
I'm not an alarmist normally. I thought Y2k was over-hyped, and generally similarly with SARS. Ebola has the potential to be something much more pernicious and pandemic.
"A British man suspected of contracting the Ebola virus has died in Macedonia, a senior Macedonian government official confirmed, adding that the victim is thought to have travelled from Britain.
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Reuters a second Briton had also shown symptoms of the virus.
He said the two had been staying at a hotel in the capital Skopje and that hotel staff and the ambulance crew that took them in for treatment had been put into isolation."
That means they had the disease while they where in the UK.
If the media get wind of a massive order of body bags, and Roger gets a call to make a public information film, we're screwed.
That means they had the disease while they where in the UK.
If true there has been a massive breach of medical standards somewhere.
Where did William Pooley, the patient treated at the Royal Free Hospital for the Ebola virus, go after he was discharged from the hospital on September 3rd?
Could he have been discharged prematurely? After all there is not that much knowledge of how the virus develops and alters in the medical world.
The virus can be relatively easily treated with good hygiene, fluids and salts. Mortality is nowhere near 70% if you have a functioning healthcare system.
You are, actually, talking rot really aren't you? Let's be honest about it? There is no cure for Ebola. Sure, you can take fluids etc. but actually you, white Charles, are no different, from black African. Shock to your system? Maybe it should be.
I know Peter Piot, the leading world expert in ebola quite well.
But if you don't believe me, how about the following from the CDC:
The following basic interventions, when used early, can significantly improve the chances of survival:
Providing intravenous fluids (IV)and balancing electrolytes (body salts) Maintaining oxygen status and blood pressure Treating other infections if they occur
The reason people smoke is mainly because it is enjoyable.
I have recently given up – switching to vaping, which is also enjoyable.
It's not possible for people who have never smoked to grasp why smoking is enjoyable I guess.
I have smoked, Bob, and it is enjoyable. But so are the things it displaces, like good health.
The enjoyment however comes from the addiction and is part of it. The puzzle is that people ever start, knowing that it is seriously addictive and has seriously damaging consequences.
I really do find it difficult to avoid viewing smoking as synonymous with stupidity.
Economists actually have what they call the rational addiction model to describe the behaviour of those who have succumbed in a way that doesn't assume they are stupid are crazy.
Years ago, I was reading a discussion of something similar to the puzzle you posed about the conflict between present and future benefits, in a tract on the philosophy of law. Sadly I have forgotten the name of the author, but the basic proposal was that people should be able to draw up binding contracts with their inter-temporal self - the canonical example was for a person attempting to give up smoking to bind his future self not to pick up the fags again, for the benefit of his even-further-future self. The point was that the recognised interests of the further-future self would then gain a legal protection, that could result in enforcement of some kind against future self. A more extreme example was to admit oneself to a rehab clinic for hard drugs - that one's present agreement not to leave the premises and quit the programme, could be enforced against one's future self, even in the event of a change of heart.
As you say, the real mystery is why present-self may take up such a harmful habit in the first instance - essentially it's because one's far-future-self can't warn, or more drastically, legally intervene, but arguably he would if he could! (At least in your case...)
Sounds like the sort of philosophising that can keep full-tenure Professors in post for decades, MBE.
But as you indicate, it doesn't really answer the 'why start?' question when the pros and cons are so patently out of kilter.
There isn't any of the Black population that is so sensitive of their skin colour they would rather take the risk of Ebola than block the flights. People realise they would be the first to be infected.
Then you have misunderstood. If you trace most of the sources of a lot of the more lunatic PC'ness you will often find that it is not a community being offended but some guardianista type believing they should be offended and therefore acting upon their behalf.
I quite agree. It's usually white middle class liberati who get flustered about such things. Keith Vaz, not exactly known for his WASP antecedents, just now stating straight that we have to test all flights from West Africa.
Charles, you wrote: 'It's only fatal in countries with poor healthcare systems.' Although I can see where you are coming from I don't think that's really true, is it, if you stop and think about it?
Actually, no, I didn't.
I wrote "mortality is nowhere near 70% in countries with functioning healthcare systems"
That is something complete different to what you seem to think my view is.
"A British man suspected of contracting the Ebola virus has died in Macedonia, a senior Macedonian government official confirmed, adding that the victim is thought to have travelled from Britain.
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Reuters a second Briton had also shown symptoms of the virus.
He said the two had been staying at a hotel in the capital Skopje and that hotel staff and the ambulance crew that took them in for treatment had been put into isolation."
T Could he have been discharged prematurely? After all there is not that much knowledge of how the virus develops and alters in the medical world.
The virus can be relatively easily treated with good hygiene, fluids and salts. Mortality is nowhere near 70% if you have a functioning healthcare system.
You are, actually, talking rot really aren't you? Let's be honest about it? There is no cure for Ebola. Sure, you can take fluids etc. but actually you, white Charles, are no different, from black African. Shock to your system? Maybe it should be.
I know Peter Piot, the leading world expert in ebola quite well.
But if you don't believe me, how about the following from the CDC:
The following basic interventions, when used early, can significantly improve the chances of survival:
Providing intravenous fluids (IV)and balancing electrolytes (body salts) Maintaining oxygen status and blood pressure Treating other infections if they occur
"A British man suspected of contracting the Ebola virus has died in Macedonia, a senior Macedonian government official confirmed, adding that the victim is thought to have travelled from Britain.
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Reuters a second Briton had also shown symptoms of the virus.
He said the two had been staying at a hotel in the capital Skopje and that hotel staff and the ambulance crew that took them in for treatment had been put into isolation."
That means they had the disease while they where in the UK.
If the media get wind of a massive order of body bags, and Roger gets a call to make a public information film, we're screwed.
That means they had the disease while they where in the UK.
If true there has been a massive breach of medical standards somewhere.
Where did William Pooley, the patient treated at the Royal Free Hospital for the Ebola virus, go after he was discharged from the hospital on September 3rd?
Could he have been discharged prematurely? After all there is not that much knowledge of how the virus develops and alters in the medical world.
The virus can be relatively easily treated with good hygiene, fluids and salts. Mortality is nowhere near 70% if you have a functioning healthcare system.
You are, actually, talking rot really aren't you? Let's be honest about it? There is no cure for Ebola. Sure, you can take fluids etc. but actually you, white Charles, are no different, from black African. Shock to your system? Maybe it should be.
Lets see what the World Health Oorganisation has to say about it shall we? WHO Media Centre summary about ebola
Charles, you wrote: 'It's only fatal in countries with poor healthcare systems.' Although I can see where you are coming from I don't think that's really true, is it, if you stop and think about it?
Actually, no, I didn't.
I wrote "mortality is nowhere near 70% in countries with functioning healthcare systems"
That is something complete different to what you seem to think my view is.
I once had banana poisoning - really. It takes a great many, but it's possible. I thought it was my imagination that I felt so dreadful, but I mentioned in passing to a consultant after the event, and he'd seen a case of it before.
Clearly vegans are an inferior species, and will not survive - paracetemol poisoning - Vegans very at risk, a Lemsip and a Night Nurse was enough to overdose a Vegan stage manager a few years back. I wish they would sell safe paracetemol (with the antidote included), it almost made it onto the statute book.
Charles, you wrote: 'It's only fatal in countries with poor healthcare systems.' Although I can see where you are coming from I don't think that's really true, is it, if you stop and think about it?
Actually, no, I didn't.
I wrote "mortality is nowhere near 70% in countries with functioning healthcare systems"
That is something complete different to what you seem to think my view is.
I once had banana poisoning - really. It takes a great many, but it's possible. I thought it was my imagination that I felt so dreadful, but I mentioned in passing to a consultant after the event, and he'd seen a case of it before.
Clearly vegans are an inferior species, and will not survive - paracetemol poisoning - Vegans very at risk, a Lemsip and a Night Nurse was enough to overdose a Vegan stage manager a few years back. I wish they would sell safe paracetemol (with the antidote included), it almost made it onto the statute book.
"A British man suspected of contracting the Ebola virus has died in Macedonia, a senior Macedonian government official confirmed, adding that the victim is thought to have travelled from Britain.
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Reuters a second Briton had also shown symptoms of the virus.
He said the two had been staying at a hotel in the capital Skopje and that hotel staff and the ambulance crew that took them in for treatment had been put into isolation."
That means they had the disease while they where in the UK.
If the media get wind of a massive order of body bags, and Roger gets a call to make a public information film, we're screwed.
Regarding Ebola, I would say it is not a major threat to this country but is still a big deal for the world as a whole. Unlike say avian flu or swine flu, it is not airborne and there is less reason for mass panic in the short term but in the medium term it is growing exponentially:
On 5th of October there were 8,033 official cases On 3rd September there were 4,001 official cases On 4th August there were 1,711 official cases
So the number of cases is doubling every month. And this is the official number of cases, the unofficial number is believed to be 2.5x higher
The graph for Sierra Leone is still dramatically increasing. The graph for Liberia is actually falling but this is due to difficulties in actually collecting the data as labs struggle to cope with testing patients
Liberia has a fifth and Sierra Leone a quarter of the number of beds required.
As the number of cases increases, it also increases the chance of it spreading to other countries. This report calculates about a 20% chance of a case in the UK by the end of the month:
It is worth noting that Nigeria had an outbreak, which they managed to control as they have one of the best healthcare systems in Africa. Despite this 1 index case infected 19 other people and 7 died.
The big danger is that there are cases in other African countries, which are not sufficiently controlled, leading to further major outbreaks (Ghana, Senegal and Ivory Coast are all seen as having higher risk of cases).
That means they had the disease while they where in the UK.
If the media get wind of a massive order of body bags, and Roger gets a call to make a public information film, we're screwed.
That means they had the disease while they where in the UK.
If true there has been a massive breach of medical standards somewhere.
Where did William Pooley, the patient treated at the Royal Free Hospital for the Ebola virus, go after he was discharged from the hospital on September 3rd?
Could he have been discharged prematurely? After all there is not that much knowledge of how the virus develops and alters in the medical world.
The virus can be relatively easily treated with good hygiene, fluids and salts. Mortality is nowhere near 70% if you have a functioning healthcare system.
You are, actually, talking rot really aren't you? Let's be honest about it? There is no cure for Ebola. Sure, you can take fluids etc. but actually you, white Charles, are no different, from black African. Shock to your system? Maybe it should be.
I know Peter Piot, the leading world expert in ebola quite well.
But if you don't believe me, how about the following from the CDC:
The following basic interventions, when used early, can significantly improve the chances of survival:
Providing intravenous fluids (IV)and balancing electrolytes (body salts) Maintaining oxygen status and blood pressure Treating other infections if they occur
Good, basic, medical procedures dramatically reduce the mortality levels from ebola.
But feel free to ignore the last 17 years that I've spent in the healthcare sector.
They can improve the prognosis, but they don't alter the fact that mortality rates are high regardless of treatment regimes, as witnessed by people now starting to die in the U.S. and Europe.
It's brilliant that you are a medic, but your healthcare comment doesn't really make you much more of an expert on Ebola than all the medics who surround me. When I asked my sister yesterday, she knew less about it than I do, and she is a frontline health care professional like you.
Anyway let's hope all doom mongering is misplaced and that in a few months I can apologise to you for being alarmist. Good night.
Ebola will be like bird flu and all the other health panics - totally overblown and hyped up by the press with logical discussion the first casualty. No doubt we will be treated by updates every five minutes by someone who spends their life glued to Sky News.
I have done you a great disservice. I had your card marked as a socialist, so apologies for getting that as badly wrong. Those to have died already in their thousands are black, and far away, right?
No that's not what I said. I was referring to its likely press coverage and impact on the UK, as you would know if you'd bothered to read my posts. Instead you prefer insidious comments suggesting I'm some sort of racist.
I once had banana poisoning - really. It takes a great many, but it's possible. I thought it was my imagination that I felt so dreadful, but I mentioned in passing to a consultant after the event, and he'd seen a case of it before.
Clearly vegans are an inferior species, and will not survive - paracetemol poisoning - Vegans very at risk, a Lemsip and a Night Nurse was enough to overdose a Vegan stage manager a few years back. I wish they would sell safe paracetemol (with the antidote included), it almost made it onto the statute book.
In case anyone is interested England are now leading 5-0 with 10 minutes or so to go.
I can't see the point in the San Marinos of this world going straight into the full qualification rounds. Why not have pre-tournament of the micronations, so they actually get the chance to win a game? Tournament winner enters qualifying...
I once had banana poisoning - really. It takes a great many, but it's possible. I thought it was my imagination that I felt so dreadful, but I mentioned in passing to a consultant after the event, and he'd seen a case of it before.
Clearly vegans are an inferior species, and will not survive - paracetemol poisoning - Vegans very at risk, a Lemsip and a Night Nurse was enough to overdose a Vegan stage manager a few years back. I wish they would sell safe paracetemol (with the antidote included), it almost made it onto the statute book.
In case anyone is interested England are now leading 5-0 with 10 minutes or so to go.
I can't see the point in the San Marinos of this world going straight into the full qualification rounds. Why not have pre-tournament of the micronations, so they actually get the chance to win a game? Tournament winner enters qualifying...
Indeed, I agree but allowing them to play with the big boys presumably ensures they continue to give their support to the likes of Blatter and Platini when it comes to re-election. Sadly International football suffers far too much from politics.
The reason people smoke is mainly because it is enjoyable.
I have recently given up – switching to vaping, which is also enjoyable.
It's not possible for people who have never smoked to grasp why smoking is enjoyable I guess.
I have smoked, Bob, and it is enjoyable. But so are the things it displaces, like good health.
The enjoyment however comes from the addiction and is part of it. The puzzle is that people ever start, knowing that it is seriously addictive and has seriously damaging consequences.
I really do find it difficult to avoid viewing smoking as synonymous with stupidity.
Economists actually have what they call the rational addiction model to describe the behaviour of those who have succumbed in a way that doesn't assume they are stupid are crazy.
Years ago, I was reading a discussion of something similar to the puzzle you posed about the conflict between present and future benefits, in a tract on the philosophy of law. Sadly I have forgotten the name of the author, but the basic proposal was that people should be able to draw up binding contracts with their inter-temporal self - the canonical example was for a person attempting to give up smoking to bind his future self not to pick up the fags again, for the benefit of his even-further-future self. The point was that the recognised interests of the further-future self would then gain a legal protection, that could result in enforcement of some kind against future self. A more extreme example was to admit oneself to a rehab clinic for hard drugs - that one's present agreement not to leave the premises and quit the programme, could be enforced against one's future self, even in the event of a change of heart.
As you say, the real mystery is why present-self may take up such a harmful habit in the first instance - essentially it's because one's far-future-self can't warn, or more drastically, legally intervene, but arguably he would if he could! (At least in your case...)
Sounds like the sort of philosophising that can keep full-tenure Professors in post for decades, MBE.
But as you indicate, it doesn't really answer the 'why start?' question when the pros and cons are so patently out of kilter.
Indeed - actually deepens the mystery in some ways. I'm sure in most cases your future-self would stop you if it could.
In case anyone is interested England are now leading 5-0 with 10 minutes or so to go.
I can't see the point in the San Marinos of this world going straight into the full qualification rounds. Why not have pre-tournament of the micronations, so they actually get the chance to win a game? Tournament winner enters qualifying...
Indeed, I agree but allowing them to play with the big boys presumably ensures they continue to give their support to the likes of Blatter and Platini when it comes to re-election. Sadly International football suffers far too much from politics.
Quite.
By the way I wasn't ignoring you the other night when we were arguing about Cllr Karen Danscuk's boobies. My posts were getting stuck in the fabled iPhone Overlap Vortex.
Probably a mercy for other posters that the dialogue continued no further however ;-)
» show previous quotes I know Peter Piot, the leading world expert in ebola quite well.
Now that's what I call topical name-dropping!
Well perhaps Charles should listen to his acquaintance then?
"This should be a lesson for everybody that you can't overreact. You can't overprotect," Peter Piot said after tests confirmed a 40-year-old nurse at a Madrid hospital had become the first person to contract Ebola outside Africa.
"Dealing with patients with Ebola ... is very risky business, and the slightest mistake can be fatal," said the Belgian scientist who co-discovered the Ebola virus in 1976.
"It's better to be accused of overreacting than to not take all the measures," he told reporters in Geneva.
I once had banana poisoning - really. It takes a great many, but it's possible. I thought it was my imagination that I felt so dreadful, but I mentioned in passing to a consultant after the event, and he'd seen a case of it before.
Clearly vegans are an inferior species, and will not survive - paracetemol poisoning - Vegans very at risk, a Lemsip and a Night Nurse was enough to overdose a Vegan stage manager a few years back. I wish they would sell safe paracetemol (with the antidote included), it almost made it onto the statute book.
Maria Teresa Romero Ramos, the Spanish nurse who is the first person to contract Ebola outside Africa, suffered multiple organ failure and was put on a ventilator. “Her clinical situation has deteriorated,” said a spokesman for the Carlos III hospital where Mrs Ramos, 44, was being treated, while her brother informed reporters that she had been intubated. “We don’t have great hopes for her,” Jose Ramon Romero Ramos said in an interview with local television. Madrid regional president Ignacio Gonzalez told parliament Mrs Ramos “is at this time very ill and her life is at serious risk as a consequence of the virus.”
"A British man suspected of contracting the Ebola virus has died in Macedonia, a senior Macedonian government official confirmed, adding that the victim is thought to have travelled from Britain.
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Reuters a second Briton had also shown symptoms of the virus.
He said the two had been staying at a hotel in the capital Skopje and that hotel staff and the ambulance crew that took them in for treatment had been put into isolation."
That means they had the disease while they where in the UK.
If the media get wind of a massive order of body bags, and Roger gets a call to make a public information film, we're screwed.
That means they had the disease while they where in the UK.
If true there has been a massive breach of medical standards somewhere.
Where did William Pooley, the patient treated at the Royal Free Hospital for the Ebola virus, go after he was discharged from the hospital on September 3rd?
Could he have been discharged prematurely? After all there is not that much knowledge of how the virus develops and alters in the medical world.
LSHTM is all over this - Peter Piot is advising the govenment personally.
The virus can be relatively easily treated with good hygiene, fluids and salts. Mortality is nowhere near 70% if you have a functioning healthcare system.
In case anyone is interested England are now leading 5-0 with 10 minutes or so to go.
I can't see the point in the San Marinos of this world going straight into the full qualification rounds. Why not have pre-tournament of the micronations, so they actually get the chance to win a game? Tournament winner enters qualifying...
Indeed, I agree but allowing them to play with the big boys presumably ensures they continue to give their support to the likes of Blatter and Platini when it comes to re-election. Sadly International football suffers far too much from politics.
Quite.
By the way I wasn't ignoring you the other night when we were arguing about Cllr Karen Danscuk's boobies. My posts were getting stuck in the fabled iPhone Overlap Vortex.
Probably a mercy for other posters that the dialogue continued no further however ;-)
It was getting late anyway. I assumed you had other things to do.
Ukip policy is to cut foreign aid - if that were to happen then less medical staff and aid workers would be in Africa to bring Ebola back thus Uk cases would drop.
"A British man suspected of contracting the Ebola virus has died in Macedonia, a senior Macedonian government official confirmed, adding that the victim is thought to have travelled from Britain.
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Reuters a second Briton had also shown symptoms of the virus.
He said the two had been staying at a hotel in the capital Skopje and that hotel staff and the ambulance crew that took them in for treatment had been put into isolation."
That means they had the disease while they where in the UK.
If the media get wind of a massive order of body bags, and Roger gets a call to make a public information film, we're screwed.
That means they had the disease while they where in the UK.
If true there has been a massive breach of medical standards somewhere.
Where did William Pooley, the patient treated at the Royal Free Hospital for the Ebola virus, go after he was discharged from the hospital on September 3rd?
Could he have been discharged prematurely? After all there is not that much knowledge of how the virus develops and alters in the medical world.
LSHTM is all over this - Peter Piot is advising the govenment personally.
The virus can be relatively easily treated with good hygiene, fluids and salts. Mortality is nowhere near 70% if you have a functioning healthcare system.
She is asking for suspension of air links with countries suffering from the epidemic.
To borrow someone else's phrase, all this proves is that it's catnip for racist xenophobes.
What the hell is racist about trying to combat the spread of a disease?
There's very little in the article to suggest that this is based on careful consideration of the effect on the rate of transmission and the effect on the people of those countries carrying out would be otherwise lawful movement.
Le Pen clearly believes this to be a low cost, high impact promise, politically speaking, both of which are true because the section of the public to which she appeals is racist and/or willfully ignorant: that air traffic to these countries is of little value anyway; that the percentage of people with the disease in those countries is meaningfully high.
I wonder if it might be possible for long term jobless to trial work without losing sickness benefit if they fail?
Voluntary work is the best way of getting the long-term jobless gradually into a routine of working, but without the "pressure" of a proper job right away.
Danny565 - but also to get paid as an incentive? In the '30s the dole was paid on a daily basis - for a 6 day week - 5 days work no dole, 4 days work 1 day's dole, 3 days work 2 day's dole, etc. It had the advantage of not locking people onto the dole as some work would improve their situation.
I wonder if it might be possible for long term jobless to trial work without losing sickness benefit if they fail?
Yes, work trials are possible. You can also do "permitted work" - part time work under 16hpw and earning up to £104 which you can do for up to a year without it affecting your benefits, in most cases. But only if you are claiming an ill-health benefit such as ESA.
I wonder if it might be possible for long term jobless to trial work without losing sickness benefit if they fail?
Voluntary work is the best way of getting the long-term jobless gradually into a routine of working, but without the "pressure" of a proper job right away.
There is a difference between those who are jobless and those who are on long term health-related benefits - the system needs to deal with this a lot more fairly. Some people may never be well enough to return to work - and should not be subject to constant checks and pressure - as it can make their conditions worse.
I very much disliked (I am not really sure of my facts here) the BBC program that outed a middle aged woman for working a shift in a Fish and Chip shop. I admit I didn't see it, perhaps others know for sure.
I wonder if it might be possible for long term jobless to trial work without losing sickness benefit if they fail?
Voluntary work is the best way of getting the long-term jobless gradually into a routine of working, but without the "pressure" of a proper job right away.
There is a difference between those who are jobless and those who are on long term health-related benefits - the system needs to deal with this a lot more fairly. Some people may never be well enough to return to work - and should not be subject to constant checks and pressure - as it can make their conditions worse.
Unfortunately the current system appears unable to discriminate. GPs are all too happy to tell people "you'll never work again", maybe as expectation management. Whereas you not only get people in the Work related Group who are really not well enough to work and may never be - it is not uncommon for people in the Support Group to go back into work as well.
Boulton: "two declarations that could change the face of British politics..."
Or not.
The results to be announced in the next hours have pretty much been factored in.
The only thing that would really cause a change would be for UKIP to win both - and most experts have discounted that as possibility.
A win for Carswell may well have been factored in but that alone should demonstrate the extent of the changed political environment since 2010 (or even 2012). Yes, there's already been one win for a minor party this parliament but that was very clearly a special circumstance. A UKIP win - never mind two - is more reminiscent of the SDP than of Respect.
Now, the SDP ultimately failed to break the mould of British politics and UKIP may end up with a similar fate. Or not. The fact that they failed does not mean they were destined to fail; nor should we necessarily assume UKIP will. At the least, the SDP and their early by-election wins made sure that they were a fullish member of a three-party system. An elected MP takes UKIP one step closer to promotion to the political premier league.
The kippers may get their 2nd MP but they still won't have won a seat in a GE.
TGOHF: Tories GO Home F**ked
Cons did the hard yards getting him elected an MP - Kippers just riding the coattails.
Wonder how long the "must have a bye election" rule will last if Reckless loses.
Well I suspect it was Carswell who did the hard yards but hey ho lets not stop the Tories claiming all the credit (whilst blaming everyone else for their failures).
Almost entirely down to the UKIP vote going up again, the Labour vote is still 3 points down on where it was before Cameron spoke, Rochester is going to be ever more important
Comments
;-)
The Black Death still spread even though deaths occurred within a few days of infection, Ebola seems to have a much greater chance of spreading because the period from contagious to incapacitation seems to be much greater.
Relax Pulpy. Ain't gonna happen.
Safish £15
"THE Gazette will have live coverage of the Clacton by-election on this website throughout the night, with the result expected at about 3am tomorrow.
We will also be publishing a special Election Gazette, available in major retail outlets tomorrow morning, with the result and all the reaction to the by-election."
http://www.clactonandfrintongazette.co.uk/news/11524295.Find_out_who_wins_first_with_the_Clacton_Gazette/
Texas Ebola guy's family already ramping up to sue for discrimination.
http://www.unz.com/isteve/ebola-guys-family-ramping-up-discrimination-lawsuit/
Quarantine, it's racist mmmkay, if only we had known in our more ignorant times past.
http://www.unz.com/isteve/time-the-history-of-quarantine-is-the-history-of-discrimination/
http://www.clactonandfrintongazette.co.uk/news/11524157.Eyes_of_the_world_on_Clacton_as_Question_Time_and_news_crews_move_in_for_poll/
My son's school was a typical example where they were going to have winterval but not christmas but it wasn't the muslims, sikhs and hindu's complaining that caused it. In fact they were as vociferous in objecting to christmas being gone as anyone. (The school ditched the idea in the end)
London? New York? Yesterday's trendsetters!
Charles, you wrote: 'It's only fatal in countries with poor healthcare systems.' Although I can see where you are coming from I don't think that's really true, is it, if you stop and think about it?
This is a potential disaster, with the emphasis on potential. It may come to nothing much in the west, although it already has in parts of the world. Nothing would give me greater pleasure on this occasion than to accept some smugness from Bob and Charles … but I fear with this one.
Years ago, I was reading a discussion of something similar to the puzzle you posed about the conflict between present and future benefits, in a tract on the philosophy of law. Sadly I have forgotten the name of the author, but the basic proposal was that people should be able to draw up binding contracts with their inter-temporal self - the canonical example was for a person attempting to give up smoking to bind his future self not to pick up the fags again, for the benefit of his even-further-future self. The point was that the recognised interests of the further-future self would then gain a legal protection, that could result in enforcement of some kind against future self. A more extreme example was to admit oneself to a rehab clinic for hard drugs - that one's present agreement not to leave the premises and quit the programme, could be enforced against one's future self, even in the event of a change of heart.
As you say, the real mystery is why present-self may take up such a harmful habit in the first instance - essentially it's because one's far-future-self can't warn, or more drastically, legally intervene, but arguably he would if he could! (At least in your case...)
That's true, but if I read it correctly, there may soon be a vaccine.
Now he's been there, that's something for Peter to really ponder...
No.1 Soaring youth interest in UKIP inspires Clacton branch.
No.2 Caravan owners devastated by closure of popular holiday park.
No.8 Top Tories show a united front in Clacton ahead of poll.
No.12 Sex worker named as candidate in Clacton by-election
No.13 Labour big-gun hits out at train service as she joins the campaign trail in Clacton
No.20 Independent candidate says healthcare needs have been highlighted in by-election battle.
I'm not an alarmist normally. I thought Y2k was over-hyped, and generally similarly with SARS. Ebola has the potential to be something much more pernicious and pandemic.
But if you don't believe me, how about the following from the CDC:
The following basic interventions, when used early, can significantly improve the chances of survival:
Providing intravenous fluids (IV)and balancing electrolytes (body salts)
Maintaining oxygen status and blood pressure
Treating other infections if they occur
http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/treatment/
Good, basic, medical procedures dramatically reduce the mortality levels from ebola.
But feel free to ignore the last 17 years that I've spent in the healthcare sector.
Could be Ebola.
Get well soon anyway Harry !
But as you indicate, it doesn't really answer the 'why start?' question when the pros and cons are so patently out of kilter.
I wrote "mortality is nowhere near 70% in countries with functioning healthcare systems"
That is something complete different to what you seem to think my view is.
http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs103/en/
Most peculiar.
My view is that mortality is nowhere near 70% in countries with functioning healthcare systems
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-2786487/Man-agonising-17-hour-erection-three-pints-blood-drained-penis.html
On 5th of October there were 8,033 official cases
On 3rd September there were 4,001 official cases
On 4th August there were 1,711 official cases
So the number of cases is doubling every month. And this is the official number of cases, the unofficial number is believed to be 2.5x higher
The WHO have a 3 month roadmap to bring the outbreak under control by the end of November. The situation in there latest update is not promising though: http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/136020/1/roadmapsitrep_8Oct2014_eng.pdf?ua=1
The graph for Sierra Leone is still dramatically increasing. The graph for Liberia is actually falling but this is due to difficulties in actually collecting the data as labs struggle to cope with testing patients
Liberia has a fifth and Sierra Leone a quarter of the number of beds required.
As the number of cases increases, it also increases the chance of it spreading to other countries. This report calculates about a 20% chance of a case in the UK by the end of the month:
http://www.mobs-lab.org/ebola.html
It is worth noting that Nigeria had an outbreak, which they managed to control as they have one of the best healthcare systems in Africa. Despite this 1 index case infected 19 other people and 7 died.
The big danger is that there are cases in other African countries, which are not sufficiently controlled, leading to further major outbreaks (Ghana, Senegal and Ivory Coast are all seen as having higher risk of cases).
It's brilliant that you are a medic, but your healthcare comment doesn't really make you much more of an expert on Ebola than all the medics who surround me. When I asked my sister yesterday, she knew less about it than I do, and she is a frontline health care professional like you.
Anyway let's hope all doom mongering is misplaced and that in a few months I can apologise to you for being alarmist. Good night.
A period of silence on your part would be wise.
Did you ever see the episode of True Blood when that happened to Jason Stackhouse? It was very funny, and leg-crossing.
Not if they're in daquiri form....
By the way I wasn't ignoring you the other night when we were arguing about Cllr Karen Danscuk's boobies. My posts were getting stuck in the fabled iPhone Overlap Vortex.
Probably a mercy for other posters that the dialogue continued no further however ;-)
Well perhaps Charles should listen to his acquaintance then?
"This should be a lesson for everybody that you can't overreact. You can't overprotect," Peter Piot said after tests confirmed a 40-year-old nurse at a Madrid hospital had become the first person to contract Ebola outside Africa.
"Dealing with patients with Ebola ... is very risky business, and the slightest mistake can be fatal," said the Belgian scientist who co-discovered the Ebola virus in 1976.
"It's better to be accused of overreacting than to not take all the measures," he told reporters in Geneva.
http://news.yahoo.com/cant-overprotect-against-ebola-virus-pioneer-212358125.html
"3 pints? That's very nearly a ****ful!"
Maria Teresa Romero Ramos, the Spanish nurse who is the first person to contract Ebola outside Africa, suffered multiple organ failure and was put on a ventilator.
“Her clinical situation has deteriorated,” said a spokesman for the Carlos III hospital where Mrs Ramos, 44, was being treated, while her brother informed reporters that she had been intubated.
“We don’t have great hopes for her,” Jose Ramon Romero Ramos said in an interview with local television.
Madrid regional president Ignacio Gonzalez told parliament Mrs Ramos “is at this time very ill and her life is at serious risk as a consequence of the virus.”
via telegraph
No wonder they are on course to win in Clacton..
Le Pen clearly believes this to be a low cost, high impact promise, politically speaking, both of which are true because the section of the public to which she appeals is racist and/or willfully ignorant: that air traffic to these countries is of little value anyway; that the percentage of people with the disease in those countries is meaningfully high.
The results to be announced in the next hours have pretty much been factored in.
The only thing that would really cause a change would be for UKIP to win both - and most experts have discounted that as possibility.
Now, the SDP ultimately failed to break the mould of British politics and UKIP may end up with a similar fate. Or not. The fact that they failed does not mean they were destined to fail; nor should we necessarily assume UKIP will. At the least, the SDP and their early by-election wins made sure that they were a fullish member of a three-party system. An elected MP takes UKIP one step closer to promotion to the political premier league.
Wonder how long the "must have a bye election" rule will last if Reckless loses.
Tom Newton Dunn @tnewtondunn
YouGov/Sun poll tonight: Labour lead back to 5 points - LAB 35%, CON 30%, UKIP 15%, LD 9%. Tory conference bounce looks to be over