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SystemSystem Posts: 12,683
edited October 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » By-Election Preview : October 9th 2014

Conservatives 1,322, 1,279
Labour 298, 281
Liberal Democrats 225, 216
Candidates duly nominated: Matt Flack (Con), Reza Hossain (Green), David Kirkwood (UKIP), Tony Lees (Lab), Andy Robson (Lib Dem)

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,774
    Many thanks Harry, get well soon
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,774
    Phewwwww and woooohooooo - Mike's back
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,894
    Mr. Hayfield, hope you feel better soon.

    I suspect we'll soon have a UKIP MP, but only the one.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    @AndyJS
    "Is that the one where a lot of the action takes place on a train?"

    No, that is the Cassandra Crossing, a very very seventies film.
    If you like a 90's film of that category try the 12 Monkeys.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Hayfield, hope you feel better soon.

    I suspect we'll soon have a UKIP MP, but only the one.

    If only for a few weeks...

    Get well soon Harry.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Could the Clacton by-election have an effect on Brightlingsea council by-election?
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    Lib Dems think they will take Brightlingsea
  • CarolaCarola Posts: 1,805
    Get well soon Mr H.

    Thanks TSE for holding the fort.

    I've been too busy to keep up with much lately - is the Clacton result expected around 2.30?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2014
    Bad news for us.
    http://www.channel4.com/news/is-the-uk-equipped-for-an-ebola-outbreak

    "A British man suspected of contracting the Ebola virus has died in Macedonia, a senior Macedonian government official confirmed, adding that the victim is thought to have travelled from Britain.

    The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Reuters a second Briton had also shown symptoms of the virus.

    He said the two had been staying at a hotel in the capital Skopje and that hotel staff and the ambulance crew that took them in for treatment had been put into isolation."

    That means they had the disease while they where in the UK.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited October 2014
    @SamCoatesTimes: Labour lose control of York council after defections

    @nose_army: Cllr Ken King follows Cllr Scott & resigns from the @labouryork group. Promises to tell all to the press. #yorkcouncil
  • The_WoodpeckerThe_Woodpecker Posts: 508
    Thanks for the piece Harry.
  • manofkent2014manofkent2014 Posts: 1,543
    Poor Roger Lord. His behaviour has ensured the end of his political career. I doubt even the MRLP would touch him now. That's what comes of threatening your successor. Now if he'd have kept his gob shut and handled it as a politician should have he'd have got a Gold Medal (as his counterpart in Rochester did) and no doubt preferential treatment down the line when considering other candidacies.


  • The_WoodpeckerThe_Woodpecker Posts: 508
    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: Labour lose control of York council after defections

    @nose_army: Cllr Ken King follows Cllr Scott & resigns from the @labouryork group. Promises to tell all to the press. #yorkcouncil

    Is it going to affect York City's new stadium?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: Labour lose control of York council after defections

    @nose_army: Cllr Ken King follows Cllr Scott & resigns from the @labouryork group. Promises to tell all to the press. #yorkcouncil

    Tell what to the press?
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    Personally I am not worried about millions of deaths from Ebola as long as we don't do anything that might possibly be interpreted as being racist like stopping travellers from Western Africa.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,894
    Waterloo (Blackpool) and Southgate (Crawley) will be interesting. They're both Lab/Con marginal wards at a local level.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    david_herdson said:

    volcanopete said:

    Labour still has time to choose the right form of taxes and the tax on Big Tobacco is popular by its silence.It's the Robin Hood Tax that's staring them in the face,a no-brainer if there ever was one.

    My bet would be that smokers are disproportionately Labour, though they might also be disproportionately of the disposition that Labour can keep hitting them in the face but they'll keep coming back to them.
    David, an open question to you and all smokers. Why do you do it?

    When I were a lad, it was just about possible to believe the health effects were minor, but these days it is so blindingly obvious that it is a serious health hazard and for absolutely no benefit that it is tempting to believe that only the reckless and utterly stupid ever start in the first place.

    And of course we now know how addictive it is, so not starting is by a very long way the easiest way to avoid wrecking your health.

    So why does anybody do it? It's bonkers.

    FPT - I'm not a smoker, apart from the odd exceedingly rare cigar (maybe five in the last five years).

    Why do people do it? For the few young starters, to look hard or rebellious, perhaps? For the rest, mostly habit, I should think. Some will say that it calms them, which is probably accurate but it's not the only thing that would and is probably one of the most dangerous.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Speedy said:

    Tell what to the press?

    Presumably why they resigned
  • ___Bobajob______Bobajob___ Posts: 872
    Speedy said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: Labour lose control of York council after defections

    @nose_army: Cllr Ken King follows Cllr Scott & resigns from the @labouryork group. Promises to tell all to the press. #yorkcouncil

    Tell what to the press?
    I'm sure ScottP will give us a clear and compelling analysis of his own very shortly
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Speedy said:

    Bad news for us.
    http://www.channel4.com/news/is-the-uk-equipped-for-an-ebola-outbreak

    "A British man suspected of contracting the Ebola virus has died in Macedonia, a senior Macedonian government official confirmed, adding that the victim is thought to have travelled from Britain.

    The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Reuters a second Briton had also shown symptoms of the virus.

    He said the two had been staying at a hotel in the capital Skopje and that hotel staff and the ambulance crew that took them in for treatment had been put into isolation."

    That means they had the disease while they where in the UK.

    If the media get wind of a massive order of body bags, and Roger gets a call to make a public information film, we're screwed.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,894
    Mr. Speedy, I believe if no symptoms are exhibited it's not contagious at that stage (don't quote me). If so, then it may not matter they travelled from here, as they may have been in the incubation stage.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    FalseFlag said:

    Personally I am not worried about millions of deaths from Ebola as long as we don't do anything that might possibly be interpreted as being racist like stopping travellers from Western Africa.

    Do you work for Rotherham council :) ?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    FalseFlag said:

    Personally I am not worried about millions of deaths from Ebola as long as we don't do anything that might possibly be interpreted as being racist like stopping travellers from Western Africa.

    The funny thing is, there will be plenty of people thinking along not dissimilar lines as we speak.

    It's only slightly exaggerated.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    TheWatcher said:

    Speedy said:

    Bad news for us.
    http://www.channel4.com/news/is-the-uk-equipped-for-an-ebola-outbreak

    "A British man suspected of contracting the Ebola virus has died in Macedonia, a senior Macedonian government official confirmed, adding that the victim is thought to have travelled from Britain.

    The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Reuters a second Briton had also shown symptoms of the virus.

    He said the two had been staying at a hotel in the capital Skopje and that hotel staff and the ambulance crew that took them in for treatment had been put into isolation."

    That means they had the disease while they where in the UK.

    If the media get wind of a massive order of body bags, and Roger gets a call to make a public information film, we're screwed.
    Travel bans may not only be from out of West Africa in the fullness of time.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    david_herdson said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    david_herdson said:

    volcanopete said:

    Labour still has time to choose the right form of taxes and the tax on Big Tobacco is popular by its silence.It's the Robin Hood Tax that's staring them in the face,a no-brainer if there ever was one.

    My bet would be that smokers are disproportionately Labour, though they might also be disproportionately of the disposition that Labour can keep hitting them in the face but they'll keep coming back to them.
    David, an open question to you and all smokers. Why do you do it?

    When I were a lad, it was just about possible to believe the health effects were minor, but these days it is so blindingly obvious that it is a serious health hazard and for absolutely no benefit that it is tempting to believe that only the reckless and utterly stupid ever start in the first place.

    And of course we now know how addictive it is, so not starting is by a very long way the easiest way to avoid wrecking your health.

    So why does anybody do it? It's bonkers.

    FPT - I'm not a smoker, apart from the odd exceedingly rare cigar (maybe five in the last five years).

    Why do people do it? For the few young starters, to look hard or rebellious, perhaps? For the rest, mostly habit, I should think. Some will say that it calms them, which is probably accurate but it's not the only thing that would and is probably one of the most dangerous.
    It looks cool (or is perceived to be cool)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    manofkent2014 said:

    Poor Roger Lord. His behaviour has ensured the end of his political career. I doubt even the MRLP would touch him now. That's what comes of threatening your successor. Now if he'd have kept his gob shut and handled it as a politician should have he'd have got a Gold Medal (as his counterpart in Rochester did) and no doubt preferential treatment down the line when considering other candidacies.


    Ye he could have landed himself a decent UKIP prospect seat at GE2015 (Or 2020 ?) if he'd played the UKIP card.

    Bit of an idiot, everyone knows how the system works.
  • ___Bobajob______Bobajob___ Posts: 872
    Ebola will be like bird flu and all the other health panics - totally overblown and hyped up by the press with logical discussion the first casualty. No doubt we will be treated by updates every five minutes by someone who spends their life glued to Sky News.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,066
    edited October 2014
    Well done Eagle. You have navigated the site slightly to starboard but nothing wrong with that. Mike'll soon have us tacking nicely back to to port
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    Speedy said:

    @AndyJS
    "Is that the one where a lot of the action takes place on a train?"

    No, that is the Cassandra Crossing, a very very seventies film.
    If you like a 90's film of that category try the 12 Monkeys.

    That's right. Contagion is only a couple of years old and involves various a-listers catching the sniffle, and kicking the bucket.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,894
    Mr. Roger, d'you mean leftwards or in the direction of wine?
  • EastwingerEastwinger Posts: 357
    Looking back at the records, the rate of infection seems to be doubling every couple of weeks. This thing is nowhere near it's peak yet.
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    ___Bobajob___ - I remember the BBC dismissed AIDS in the beginning as "not as infectious as the common cold" in a dismissive way. If it was as infectious as the common cold we would all be dead now.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited October 2014
    Lets see what happened the last time with a disease that was transmitted by mice and had only a 25% death rate (which is less than ebola):

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/middle_ages/black_impact_01.shtml
    http://www.brown.edu/Departments/Italian_Studies/dweb/plague/effects/social.php

    If there is an epidemic the wealthy will get crushed, as the remaining survivors will demand higher wages due to a shortage of people.
    The big problem as with any disease is that no one knows who will live or die.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited October 2014
    ___Bobajob___ said:

    Ebola will be like bird flu and all the other health panics - totally overblown and hyped up by the press with logical discussion the first casualty. No doubt we will be treated by updates every five minutes by someone who spends their life glued to Sky News.

    I don't remember the UK sending military personnel overseas to assist with containing a bird flu pandemic.

    Thankfully someone knows better than the Bobajobs.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    The York thing may be related to this;

    yorkpress.co.uk/News/11524431.Charity_boss_suspended_over_online_abuse_claims/

    Last month a Labour councillor defected to the Tories and the guy at the centre of the allegations here appears to be in a relationship with a Tory councillor.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited October 2014
    TheWatcher said:

    Speedy said:

    Bad news for us.
    http://www.channel4.com/news/is-the-uk-equipped-for-an-ebola-outbreak

    "A British man suspected of contracting the Ebola virus has died in Macedonia, a senior Macedonian government official confirmed, adding that the victim is thought to have travelled from Britain.

    The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Reuters a second Briton had also shown symptoms of the virus.

    He said the two had been staying at a hotel in the capital Skopje and that hotel staff and the ambulance crew that took them in for treatment had been put into isolation."

    That means they had the disease while they where in the UK.

    If the media get wind of a massive order of body bags, and Roger gets a call to make a public information film, we're screwed.
    That means they had the disease while they where in the UK.

    If true there has been a massive breach of medical standards somewhere.

    Where did William Pooley, the patient treated at the Royal Free Hospital for the Ebola virus, go after he was discharged from the hospital on September 3rd?

    Could he have been discharged prematurely? After all there is not that much knowledge of how the virus develops and alters in the medical world.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,894
    Mr. Ajob, you're wrong. SARS, swine fly and bird flu were all overblown (swine flu was even called a pandemic). Ebola has a 70% mortality rate.
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    Hmm.. advice is a FFP3 respirator for medical staff, looks like the equipment used by the Spanish nurse, surely the army has something more effective than that around.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    How not to catch Ebola

    Avoid direct contact with sick patients
    Wear goggles to protect eyes
    Clothing and clinical waste should be incinerated and any medical equipment that needs to be kept should be decontaminated
    People who recover from Ebola should abstain from sex or use condoms for three months
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-29555849
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,066
    edited October 2014
    Watcher

    "If the media get wind of a massive order of body bags, and Roger gets a call to make a public information film, we're screwed."

    I think the media are too occupied trying to get the first topless shots of the UAE's first female pilot.

    "Boobs on the ground!!"

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2771731/Family-UAE-s-female-fighter-pilot-spearheaded-attacks
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited October 2014
    @FalseFlag

    'Personally I am not worried about millions of deaths from Ebola as long as we don't do anything that might possibly be interpreted as being racist like stopping travellers from Western Africa.'

    Yes, it depends if the powers that be think containing the spread of the virus is more important than PC.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    yorkpress.co.uk/news/11526830.Drama_at_Guildhall_as_2_more_Labour_councillors_quit___crunch_stadium_vote_to_come_tonight/
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Ajob, you're wrong. SARS, swine fly and bird flu were all overblown (swine flu was even called a pandemic). Ebola has a 70% mortality rate.

    True, its more easily contracted and more deadly than the plague right now.
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    "What is the difference between an FFP1, FFP2 and an FFP3 dust respirator?
    Answer:

    Simply, an FFP3 will offer greater protection than FFP2 and FFP1.
    An FFP1 has an Assigned Protection Factor (APF) of 4, FFP2 has an APF of 10 and an FFP3 has an APF of 20."

    Is that it for a lethal virus - which will pass through porcelain filters.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Ajob, you're wrong. SARS, swine fly and bird flu were all overblown (swine flu was even called a pandemic). Ebola has a 70% mortality rate.

    In West Africa, I'd guess the mortality rate here would be lower.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,894
    Incidentally, not terribly impressed with the media over screening (yes, the government u-turned).

    "People are worried. Why aren't we screening? America's screening. The Government's under pressure."

    "The Government u-turned. Not very reassuring. And they told us screening was against medical advice. What changed?"

    Reminds me, write small [for now] of Libya when they lambasted the Government for not waving a a magic wand to magically evacuate all the British workers there, who had remained after both Tunisia and Egypt had undergone revolution.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,795
    Casino_Royale said:

    david_herdson said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    david_herdson said:

    volcanopete said:

    Labour still has time to choose the right form of taxes and the tax on Big Tobacco is popular by its silence.It's the Robin Hood Tax that's staring them in the face,a no-brainer if there ever was one.

    My bet would be that smokers are disproportionately Labour, though they might also be disproportionately of the disposition that Labour can keep hitting them in the face but they'll keep coming back to them.
    David, an open question to you and all smokers. Why do you do it?

    When I were a lad, it was just about possible to believe the health effects were minor, but these days it is so blindingly obvious that it is a serious health hazard and for absolutely no benefit that it is tempting to believe that only the reckless and utterly stupid ever start in the first place.

    And of course we now know how addictive it is, so not starting is by a very long way the easiest way to avoid wrecking your health.

    So why does anybody do it? It's bonkers.

    FPT - I'm not a smoker, apart from the odd exceedingly rare cigar (maybe five in the last five years).

    Why do people do it? For the few young starters, to look hard or rebellious, perhaps? For the rest, mostly habit, I should think. Some will say that it calms them, which is probably accurate but it's not the only thing that would and is probably one of the most dangerous.
    It looks cool (or is perceived to be cool)
    No it doesn't, it looks stupid, and is perceived to look stupid.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Smarmeron said:

    How not to catch Ebola

    Avoid direct contact with sick patients
    Wear goggles to protect eyes
    Clothing and clinical waste should be incinerated and any medical equipment that needs to be kept should be decontaminated
    People who recover from Ebola should abstain from sex or use condoms for three months
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-29555849

    That reminds me of the government films in the 50's on Atom Bomb fall-out and radiation poisoning. The best advice was: stay in your house under the stairs and cover yourselves with newspaper!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,894
    Mr. Pulpstar, maybe.

    In that part of the world malaria has a lower death rate because (being malaria-prone) there's been an odd natural selection *for* sickle cell anaemia (unusually, sickle cell is neither recessive nor dominant and if you have one 'bad' allele for it you have a milder version of sickle cell anaemia, but this means you're resistant to malaria).

    I don't think ebola's been around long enough for that sort of thing to develop but I'm not certain. Also, if a major European city got hit then the medical services would be totally overwhelmed. Better medical facilities will help prevent that happening, but it's possible sheer numbers could swamp the system.

    Obviously, that's a worst case scenario. I'm hopeful that won't happen.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Peter_the_Punter

    It helps "grass" to burn (allegedly)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Any word on turnout in Clacton and Heywood?
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    Doesn't the government realise that people will turn up for diagnosis only when symptoms are apparent. GPs are going to be terribly exposed. Why not ban air travel? We would quarantine a cruise ship.
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    "People who recover from Ebola should abstain from sex or use condoms for three months" - that has certainly worked for AIDS.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    david_herdson said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    david_herdson said:

    volcanopete said:

    Labour still has time to choose the right form of taxes and the tax on Big Tobacco is popular by its silence.It's the Robin Hood Tax that's staring them in the face,a no-brainer if there ever was one.

    My bet would be that smokers are disproportionately Labour, though they might also be disproportionately of the disposition that Labour can keep hitting them in the face but they'll keep coming back to them.
    David, an open question to you and all smokers. Why do you do it?

    When I were a lad, it was just about possible to believe the health effects were minor, but these days it is so blindingly obvious that it is a serious health hazard and for absolutely no benefit that it is tempting to believe that only the reckless and utterly stupid ever start in the first place.

    And of course we now know how addictive it is, so not starting is by a very long way the easiest way to avoid wrecking your health.

    So why does anybody do it? It's bonkers.

    FPT - I'm not a smoker, apart from the odd exceedingly rare cigar (maybe five in the last five years).

    Why do people do it? For the few young starters, to look hard or rebellious, perhaps? For the rest, mostly habit, I should think. Some will say that it calms them, which is probably accurate but it's not the only thing that would and is probably one of the most dangerous.
    It looks cool (or is perceived to be cool)
    No it doesn't, it looks stupid, and is perceived to look stupid.
    You asked why people do it.I think it's stupid, you think it's stupid, but plenty of young people think it's grown-up, cockily diffident, nonchalant, social, confidently casual and even suave.

    In other words "cool", although they'd never describe it as such. Too taboo.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @PAW

    'Why not ban air travel? We would quarantine a cruise ship.'

    Don't expect common sense to prevail.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    AndyJS said:

    Any word on turnout in Clacton and Heywood?

    Brisk.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,795
    Smarmeron said:

    @Peter_the_Punter

    It helps "grass" to burn (allegedly)

    Lol!

    When I first tried marijuana (San Francisco 1969) I had first to be taught how to smoke tobacco.

    I was never sure if it was the weed or the nicotine that made me feel funny, as I was equally unused to both.

  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Peter_the_Punter
    "I was never sure if it was the weed or the nicotine that made me feel funny"
    You need to do a series of controlled experiments Peter. ;-)
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    PAW said:

    Doesn't the government realise that people will turn up for diagnosis only when symptoms are apparent. GPs are going to be terribly exposed. Why not ban air travel? We would quarantine a cruise ship.

    I think there are no direct flights to the UK from any of the affected countries, so all civilian passengers would have travelled from somewhere else. Short of closing all ports and airports it would not be effective.

    It does show how fragile life is.
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    There isn't any of the Black population that is so sensitive of their skin colour they would rather take the risk of Ebola than block the flights. People realise they would be the first to be infected.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,272
    edited October 2014
    Previous thread Interesting that the most popular Labour policies, a minimum wage increase and maintaining NHS funding are supported or under consideration by the Tories anyway. The freeze in energy and gas bills was proposed by John Major. The real differences are on the Bedroom Tax/Subsidy, and the 50% top tax rate and the Mansion Tax
  • PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    foxinsoxuk has managed to calm me down...
  • ___Bobajob______Bobajob___ Posts: 872
    I was told I was wrong about all the rest of them too Morris. Ebola is of course, a very dangerous disease. But the hyperbole and panic that will soon ensue will be entirely counterproductive and overblown.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,795
    Smarmeron said:

    @Peter_the_Punter
    "I was never sure if it was the weed or the nicotine that made me feel funny"
    You need to do a series of controlled experiments Peter. ;-)


    Oh Smarmy, if only you knew how many 'controlled experiments' I have done in my life....
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @foxinsoxuk
    Might be a time to pray that no one is an asymptomatic carrier?
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    PAW said:

    foxinsoxuk has managed to calm me down...

    Its alright for you. Stock up with tinned beans and shotgun cartridges. I am in the front line when it hits...
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Harry Plowman ‏@HarryPlowman2 57m57 minutes ago
    Labour 'Shocked' By UKIP By-Election Machine.
    Lab stronghold, but hoping the hard work pays off.
    http://bit.ly/1sgGsqi via @BreitbartNews

    There may be a surprise in the making here.
  • ___Bobajob______Bobajob___ Posts: 872
    MikeK said:

    Harry Plowman ‏@HarryPlowman2 57m57 minutes ago
    Labour 'Shocked' By UKIP By-Election Machine.
    Lab stronghold, but hoping the hard work pays off.
    http://bit.ly/1sgGsqi via @BreitbartNews

    There may be a surprise in the making here.

    Ukip are 14/1 and Labour 1/50.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,619
    AndyJS said:

    Any word on turnout in Clacton and Heywood?

    I'm here and the Ukip people seem to think it is definitely over 50%

    St Osyth ward apparently was 33% by midday

    But that's all I can telly you except I'm outside a polling station and there's been10 in 15 mins since I arrived
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    In Scotland, SNP MSP Rob Gibson is urging voters to line hamster cages with 60,000 copies of the redundant independence white paper.
    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/10/commons-confidential-lib-dem-red-rodent-peril
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,894
    Mr. K, even if UKIP gets a strong second in the Labour seat, it'd be a significant accomplishment. A win would be rather dramatic.

    Mr. Ajob, I would've agreed with you on the others, and do agree some have cried wolf. Ebola's a different bag of monkeys. Anyway, let's hope it doesn't get a foothold here.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited October 2014
    @Peter_the_Punter
    Most of my experiments would have been better classed as "uncontrolled"
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Disappointing of Cllr Lord to want the LibDems to win in Clacton.Hopefully his intervention won't stop Charlotte's final push.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    My predictions for tonight :

    Cameron will still be PM and the next election will be in May.
  • ___Bobajob______Bobajob___ Posts: 872
    The reason people smoke is mainly because it is enjoyable.

    I have recently given up – switching to vaping, which is also enjoyable.

    It's not possible for people who have never smoked to grasp why smoking is enjoyable I guess.
  • ___Bobajob______Bobajob___ Posts: 872
    TGOHF said:

    My predictions for tonight :

    Cameron will still be PM and the next election will be in May.

    One of your better forecasts, Harry.
  • ___Bobajob______Bobajob___ Posts: 872
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. K, even if UKIP gets a strong second in the Labour seat, it'd be a significant accomplishment. A win would be rather dramatic.

    Mr. Ajob, I would've agreed with you on the others, and do agree some have cried wolf. Ebola's a different bag of monkeys. Anyway, let's hope it doesn't get a foothold here.

    You will hear about it getting a foothold whether it is or not – health scares are like catnip to the press. They sell papers.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,795
    Smarmeron said:

    @Peter_the_Punter
    Most of my experiments would have been better classed as "uncontrolled"

    Lol!

  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    ___Bobajob___ said:

    Ukip are 14/1 and Labour 1/50.

    Labour should hold comfortably. Initially I expected 50-25.

    The interesting thing will be how well UKIP do in second, and does the Labour candidate here gain as much as her predecessors in the three previous NW by-elections this Parliament.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,388
    mikeK,

    "That reminds me of the government films in the 50's on Atom Bomb fall-out and radiation poisoning."

    I remember a poster in our local pub. There were ten bullet points of advice. Number one was ... don't panic. It then went on to give similar advice to your film but ended with ... Number nine - lean over and put your head between your legs. Number ten - kiss your arse goodbye.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    ___Bobajob___ said:

    TGOHF said:

    My predictions for tonight :

    Cameron will still be PM and the next election will be in May.

    One of your better forecasts, Harry.
    Yes worth noting that Cons finishing 2nd in Clacton means they have lost - 2nd is nowhere in fptp
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    MikeK said:

    TheWatcher said:

    Speedy said:

    Bad news for us.
    http://www.channel4.com/news/is-the-uk-equipped-for-an-ebola-outbreak

    "A British man suspected of contracting the Ebola virus has died in Macedonia, a senior Macedonian government official confirmed, adding that the victim is thought to have travelled from Britain.

    The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Reuters a second Briton had also shown symptoms of the virus.

    He said the two had been staying at a hotel in the capital Skopje and that hotel staff and the ambulance crew that took them in for treatment had been put into isolation."

    That means they had the disease while they where in the UK.

    If the media get wind of a massive order of body bags, and Roger gets a call to make a public information film, we're screwed.
    That means they had the disease while they where in the UK.

    If true there has been a massive breach of medical standards somewhere.

    Where did William Pooley, the patient treated at the Royal Free Hospital for the Ebola virus, go after he was discharged from the hospital on September 3rd?

    Could he have been discharged prematurely? After all there is not that much knowledge of how the virus develops and alters in the medical world.
    LSHTM is all over this - Peter Piot is advising the govenment personally.

    The virus can be relatively easily treated with good hygiene, fluids and salts. Mortality is nowhere near 70% if you have a functioning healthcare system.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    MikeK said:

    Harry Plowman ‏@HarryPlowman2 57m57 minutes ago
    Labour 'Shocked' By UKIP By-Election Machine.
    Lab stronghold, but hoping the hard work pays off.
    http://bit.ly/1sgGsqi via @BreitbartNews

    There may be a surprise in the making here.

    "Conservatives are struggling to hold on to their vote because they are perceived as being incapable of beating Labour."

    Vote Conservative, get Labour! :-)
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,795
    ___Bobajob___ said:

    The reason people smoke is mainly because it is enjoyable.

    I have recently given up – switching to vaping, which is also enjoyable.

    It's not possible for people who have never smoked to grasp why smoking is enjoyable I guess.

    I have smoked, Bob, and it is enjoyable. But so are the things it displaces, like good health.

    The enjoyment however comes from the addiction and is part of it. The puzzle is that people ever start, knowing that it is seriously addictive and has seriously damaging consequences.

    I really do find it difficult to avoid viewing smoking as synonymous with stupidity.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    ___Bobajob___ said:

    The reason people smoke is mainly because it is enjoyable.

    I have recently given up – switching to vaping, which is also enjoyable.

    It's not possible for people who have never smoked to grasp why smoking is enjoyable I guess.

    I have smoked, once or twice.

    I can't say its worth the thousands of pounds that it would cost to be a regular smoker in addition to the additional risks of lung cancer and heart disease.

    Can you enlighten me ?
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    Crawley is interesting in the question of the long-term trend of Ukip council losses in by-elections.There seems to be a consistent Con defect to Ukip and then lose to Lab..
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,113
    TGOHF said:

    ___Bobajob___ said:

    TGOHF said:

    My predictions for tonight :

    Cameron will still be PM and the next election will be in May.

    One of your better forecasts, Harry.
    Yes worth noting that Cons finishing 2nd in Clacton means they have lost - 2nd is nowhere in fptp
    Cons finishing second will be fine. If they come 3rd I'm in trouble.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 8,055
    ___Bobajob___ said:

    I was told I was wrong about all the rest of them too Morris. Ebola is of course, a very dangerous disease. But the hyperbole and panic that will soon ensue will be entirely counterproductive and overblown.

    The media loves a good crisis. A good scaremongering campaign sells papers and increases hits and ratings.

    And agreed, nobody is denying ebola is a serious disease and we need to be ready. But a good dose of realism is also needed. It's not the easiest virus to contract and the fact it doesn't become contagious until symptoms manifest is also a relative help.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,602
    Charles said:

    MikeK said:

    TheWatcher said:

    Speedy said:

    Bad news for us.
    http://www.channel4.com/news/is-the-uk-equipped-for-an-ebola-outbreak

    "A British man suspected of contracting the Ebola virus has died in Macedonia, a senior Macedonian government official confirmed, adding that the victim is thought to have travelled from Britain.

    The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Reuters a second Briton had also shown symptoms of the virus.

    He said the two had been staying at a hotel in the capital Skopje and that hotel staff and the ambulance crew that took them in for treatment had been put into isolation."

    That means they had the disease while they where in the UK.

    If the media get wind of a massive order of body bags, and Roger gets a call to make a public information film, we're screwed.
    That means they had the disease while they where in the UK.

    If true there has been a massive breach of medical standards somewhere.

    Where did William Pooley, the patient treated at the Royal Free Hospital for the Ebola virus, go after he was discharged from the hospital on September 3rd?

    Could he have been discharged prematurely? After all there is not that much knowledge of how the virus develops and alters in the medical world.
    LSHTM is all over this - Peter Piot is advising the govenment personally.

    The virus can be relatively easily treated with good hygiene, fluids and salts. Mortality is nowhere near 70% if you have a functioning healthcare system.
    Yes, given how awkward the transmission mechanism is, I can't help but wonder whether lack of education and media to make people aware of the basic steps is a key boost in this spreading in Africa. And even there it's hardly rampant.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Charles said:

    MikeK said:

    TheWatcher said:

    Speedy said:

    Bad news for us.
    http://www.channel4.com/news/is-the-uk-equipped-for-an-ebola-outbreak

    "A British man suspected of contracting the Ebola virus has died in Macedonia, a senior Macedonian government official confirmed, adding that the victim is thought to have travelled from Britain.

    The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Reuters a second Briton had also shown symptoms of the virus.

    He said the two had been staying at a hotel in the capital Skopje and that hotel staff and the ambulance crew that took them in for treatment had been put into isolation."

    That means they had the disease while they where in the UK.

    If the media get wind of a massive order of body bags, and Roger gets a call to make a public information film, we're screwed.
    That means they had the disease while they where in the UK.

    If true there has been a massive breach of medical standards somewhere.

    Where did William Pooley, the patient treated at the Royal Free Hospital for the Ebola virus, go after he was discharged from the hospital on September 3rd?

    Could he have been discharged prematurely? After all there is not that much knowledge of how the virus develops and alters in the medical world.
    LSHTM is all over this - Peter Piot is advising the govenment personally.

    The virus can be relatively easily treated with good hygiene, fluids and salts. Mortality is nowhere near 70% if you have a functioning healthcare system.
    Le Pen is already making a move in France.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.fr/2014/10/09/ebola-front-national-suspendre-liaisons-aeriennes-pays-touches_n_5958204.html?utm_hp_ref=sante

    She is asking for suspension of air links with countries suffering from the epidemic.
  • ___Bobajob______Bobajob___ Posts: 872
    Pulpstar said:

    ___Bobajob___ said:

    The reason people smoke is mainly because it is enjoyable.

    I have recently given up – switching to vaping, which is also enjoyable.

    It's not possible for people who have never smoked to grasp why smoking is enjoyable I guess.

    I have smoked, once or twice.

    I can't say its worth the thousands of pounds that it would cost to be a regular smoker in addition to the additional risks of lung cancer and heart disease.

    Can you enlighten me ?
    :) Intentional pun?? (sorry, I left it in my coat pocket etc)

    Anyway it isn't worth it, hence why it's very wise to give up. On any rational basis it's complete madness, for the reasons you posit.
  • FenmanFenman Posts: 1,047
    it's estimated that 627,000 people have died of Malaria in the past twelve months...
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    ___Bobajob___ said:

    Pulpstar said:

    ___Bobajob___ said:

    The reason people smoke is mainly because it is enjoyable.

    I have recently given up – switching to vaping, which is also enjoyable.

    It's not possible for people who have never smoked to grasp why smoking is enjoyable I guess.

    I have smoked, once or twice.

    I can't say its worth the thousands of pounds that it would cost to be a regular smoker in addition to the additional risks of lung cancer and heart disease.

    Can you enlighten me ?
    :) Intentional pun?? (sorry, I left it in my coat pocket etc)

    Anyway it isn't worth it, hence why it's very wise to give up. On any rational basis it's complete madness, for the reasons you posit.
    It is however lovely!

    Just very bad for you.
  • ___Bobajob______Bobajob___ Posts: 872
    anotherDave said:

    MikeK said:

    Harry Plowman ‏@HarryPlowman2 57m57 minutes ago
    Labour 'Shocked' By UKIP By-Election Machine.
    Lab stronghold, but hoping the hard work pays off.
    http://bit.ly/1sgGsqi via @BreitbartNews

    There may be a surprise in the making here.

    "Conservatives are struggling to hold on to their vote because they are perceived as being incapable of beating Labour."

    Vote Conservative, get Labour! :-)
    Ha ha - indeed :)
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    ___Bobajob___ said:

    The reason people smoke is mainly because it is enjoyable.

    I have recently given up – switching to vaping, which is also enjoyable.

    It's not possible for people who have never smoked to grasp why smoking is enjoyable I guess.

    Enjoyable or addiction? I enjoy Barolo but if I don't have it I don't get the shakes and see electric squirrels running up the walls.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    ___Bobajob___ said:

    TGOHF said:

    My predictions for tonight :

    Cameron will still be PM and the next election will be in May.

    One of your better forecasts, Harry.
    Yes worth noting that Cons finishing 2nd in Clacton means they have lost - 2nd is nowhere in fptp
    Cons finishing second will be fine. If they come 3rd I'm in trouble.
    I don't think they will finish third in Clacton, Labour have not fought at all in contrast with the Tories. It will take an enormously bad campaign from the Tories do to that, and apart from the cheesy youtube ads, it was low key but mostly decent.
  • ___Bobajob______Bobajob___ Posts: 872
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    ___Bobajob___ said:

    The reason people smoke is mainly because it is enjoyable.

    I have recently given up – switching to vaping, which is also enjoyable.

    It's not possible for people who have never smoked to grasp why smoking is enjoyable I guess.

    I have smoked, Bob, and it is enjoyable. But so are the things it displaces, like good health.

    The enjoyment however comes from the addiction and is part of it. The puzzle is that people ever start, knowing that it is seriously addictive and has seriously damaging consequences.

    I really do find it difficult to avoid viewing smoking as synonymous with stupidity.
    It is stupid. I accept it was stupid of me to ever start.

    I wonder whether rather fewer youngsters will start nowadays with smoking (very wisely*) banned in pubs.

    In my youth, you'd go into pubs and fags would be part of the experience, the natural progression.

    And you'd be drunk, so more susceptible to stupidity.



    *One of the best policies ever. The idea that it was ever legal seems utterly ridiculous now.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,795
    Speedy said:

    Pulpstar said:

    TGOHF said:

    ___Bobajob___ said:

    TGOHF said:

    My predictions for tonight :

    Cameron will still be PM and the next election will be in May.

    One of your better forecasts, Harry.
    Yes worth noting that Cons finishing 2nd in Clacton means they have lost - 2nd is nowhere in fptp
    Cons finishing second will be fine. If they come 3rd I'm in trouble.
    I don't think they will finish third in Clacton, Labour have not fought at all in contrast with the Tories. It will take an enormously bad campaign from the Tories do to that, and apart from the cheesy youtube ads, it was low key but mostly decent.
    Speedy, my slightly whimsical thread piece on Clacton tried to make just that point. The Tory effort may have be token, but Labour's was non-existent.

    Everybody knows what the 1-2-3 will be.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Speedy said:

    Charles said:

    MikeK said:

    TheWatcher said:

    Speedy said:

    Bad news for us.
    http://www.channel4.com/news/is-the-uk-equipped-for-an-ebola-outbreak

    "A British man suspected of contracting the Ebola virus has died in Macedonia, a senior Macedonian government official confirmed, adding that the victim is thought to have travelled from Britain.

    The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Reuters a second Briton had also shown symptoms of the virus.

    He said the two had been staying at a hotel in the capital Skopje and that hotel staff and the ambulance crew that took them in for treatment had been put into isolation."

    That means they had the disease while they where in the UK.

    If the media get wind of a massive order of body bags, and Roger gets a call to make a public information film, we're screwed.
    That means they had the disease while they where in the UK.

    If true there has been a massive breach of medical standards somewhere.

    Where did William Pooley, the patient treated at the Royal Free Hospital for the Ebola virus, go after he was discharged from the hospital on September 3rd?

    Could he have been discharged prematurely? After all there is not that much knowledge of how the virus develops and alters in the medical world.
    LSHTM is all over this - Peter Piot is advising the govenment personally.

    The virus can be relatively easily treated with good hygiene, fluids and salts. Mortality is nowhere near 70% if you have a functioning healthcare system.
    Le Pen is already making a move in France.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.fr/2014/10/09/ebola-front-national-suspendre-liaisons-aeriennes-pays-touches_n_5958204.html?utm_hp_ref=sante

    She is asking for suspension of air links with countries suffering from the epidemic.
    To borrow someone else's phrase, all this proves is that it's catnip for racist xenophobes.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Fenman said:

    it's estimated that 627,000 people have died of Malaria in the past twelve months...

    Malaria though is a tropical disease and there is a cure for it.
This discussion has been closed.

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