politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » By-Election Preview : October 9th 2014
Conservatives 1,322, 1,279
Labour 298, 281
Liberal Democrats 225, 216
Candidates duly nominated: Matt Flack (Con), Reza Hossain (Green), David Kirkwood (UKIP), Tony Lees (Lab), Andy Robson (Lib Dem)
Comments
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Many thanks Harry, get well soon0
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Phewwwww and woooohooooo - Mike's back0
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Mr. Hayfield, hope you feel better soon.
I suspect we'll soon have a UKIP MP, but only the one.0 -
If only for a few weeks...Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Hayfield, hope you feel better soon.
I suspect we'll soon have a UKIP MP, but only the one.
Get well soon Harry.0 -
Could the Clacton by-election have an effect on Brightlingsea council by-election?0
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Lib Dems think they will take Brightlingsea0
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Get well soon Mr H.
Thanks TSE for holding the fort.
I've been too busy to keep up with much lately - is the Clacton result expected around 2.30?0 -
Bad news for us.
http://www.channel4.com/news/is-the-uk-equipped-for-an-ebola-outbreak
"A British man suspected of contracting the Ebola virus has died in Macedonia, a senior Macedonian government official confirmed, adding that the victim is thought to have travelled from Britain.
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Reuters a second Briton had also shown symptoms of the virus.
He said the two had been staying at a hotel in the capital Skopje and that hotel staff and the ambulance crew that took them in for treatment had been put into isolation."
That means they had the disease while they where in the UK.0 -
@SamCoatesTimes: Labour lose control of York council after defections
@nose_army: Cllr Ken King follows Cllr Scott & resigns from the @labouryork group. Promises to tell all to the press. #yorkcouncil0 -
Thanks for the piece Harry.0
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Poor Roger Lord. His behaviour has ensured the end of his political career. I doubt even the MRLP would touch him now. That's what comes of threatening your successor. Now if he'd have kept his gob shut and handled it as a politician should have he'd have got a Gold Medal (as his counterpart in Rochester did) and no doubt preferential treatment down the line when considering other candidacies.
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Is it going to affect York City's new stadium?Scott_P said:@SamCoatesTimes: Labour lose control of York council after defections
@nose_army: Cllr Ken King follows Cllr Scott & resigns from the @labouryork group. Promises to tell all to the press. #yorkcouncil
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Tell what to the press?Scott_P said:@SamCoatesTimes: Labour lose control of York council after defections
@nose_army: Cllr Ken King follows Cllr Scott & resigns from the @labouryork group. Promises to tell all to the press. #yorkcouncil0 -
Personally I am not worried about millions of deaths from Ebola as long as we don't do anything that might possibly be interpreted as being racist like stopping travellers from Western Africa.0
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Waterloo (Blackpool) and Southgate (Crawley) will be interesting. They're both Lab/Con marginal wards at a local level.0
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FPT - I'm not a smoker, apart from the odd exceedingly rare cigar (maybe five in the last five years).Peter_the_Punter said:
David, an open question to you and all smokers. Why do you do it?david_herdson said:
My bet would be that smokers are disproportionately Labour, though they might also be disproportionately of the disposition that Labour can keep hitting them in the face but they'll keep coming back to them.volcanopete said:Labour still has time to choose the right form of taxes and the tax on Big Tobacco is popular by its silence.It's the Robin Hood Tax that's staring them in the face,a no-brainer if there ever was one.
When I were a lad, it was just about possible to believe the health effects were minor, but these days it is so blindingly obvious that it is a serious health hazard and for absolutely no benefit that it is tempting to believe that only the reckless and utterly stupid ever start in the first place.
And of course we now know how addictive it is, so not starting is by a very long way the easiest way to avoid wrecking your health.
So why does anybody do it? It's bonkers.
Why do people do it? For the few young starters, to look hard or rebellious, perhaps? For the rest, mostly habit, I should think. Some will say that it calms them, which is probably accurate but it's not the only thing that would and is probably one of the most dangerous.0 -
I'm sure ScottP will give us a clear and compelling analysis of his own very shortlySpeedy said:
Tell what to the press?Scott_P said:@SamCoatesTimes: Labour lose control of York council after defections
@nose_army: Cllr Ken King follows Cllr Scott & resigns from the @labouryork group. Promises to tell all to the press. #yorkcouncil
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If the media get wind of a massive order of body bags, and Roger gets a call to make a public information film, we're screwed.Speedy said:Bad news for us.
http://www.channel4.com/news/is-the-uk-equipped-for-an-ebola-outbreak
"A British man suspected of contracting the Ebola virus has died in Macedonia, a senior Macedonian government official confirmed, adding that the victim is thought to have travelled from Britain.
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Reuters a second Briton had also shown symptoms of the virus.
He said the two had been staying at a hotel in the capital Skopje and that hotel staff and the ambulance crew that took them in for treatment had been put into isolation."
That means they had the disease while they where in the UK.0 -
Mr. Speedy, I believe if no symptoms are exhibited it's not contagious at that stage (don't quote me). If so, then it may not matter they travelled from here, as they may have been in the incubation stage.0
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The funny thing is, there will be plenty of people thinking along not dissimilar lines as we speak.FalseFlag said:Personally I am not worried about millions of deaths from Ebola as long as we don't do anything that might possibly be interpreted as being racist like stopping travellers from Western Africa.
It's only slightly exaggerated.0 -
Travel bans may not only be from out of West Africa in the fullness of time.TheWatcher said:
If the media get wind of a massive order of body bags, and Roger gets a call to make a public information film, we're screwed.Speedy said:Bad news for us.
http://www.channel4.com/news/is-the-uk-equipped-for-an-ebola-outbreak
"A British man suspected of contracting the Ebola virus has died in Macedonia, a senior Macedonian government official confirmed, adding that the victim is thought to have travelled from Britain.
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Reuters a second Briton had also shown symptoms of the virus.
He said the two had been staying at a hotel in the capital Skopje and that hotel staff and the ambulance crew that took them in for treatment had been put into isolation."
That means they had the disease while they where in the UK.0 -
It looks cool (or is perceived to be cool)david_herdson said:
FPT - I'm not a smoker, apart from the odd exceedingly rare cigar (maybe five in the last five years).Peter_the_Punter said:
David, an open question to you and all smokers. Why do you do it?david_herdson said:
My bet would be that smokers are disproportionately Labour, though they might also be disproportionately of the disposition that Labour can keep hitting them in the face but they'll keep coming back to them.volcanopete said:Labour still has time to choose the right form of taxes and the tax on Big Tobacco is popular by its silence.It's the Robin Hood Tax that's staring them in the face,a no-brainer if there ever was one.
When I were a lad, it was just about possible to believe the health effects were minor, but these days it is so blindingly obvious that it is a serious health hazard and for absolutely no benefit that it is tempting to believe that only the reckless and utterly stupid ever start in the first place.
And of course we now know how addictive it is, so not starting is by a very long way the easiest way to avoid wrecking your health.
So why does anybody do it? It's bonkers.
Why do people do it? For the few young starters, to look hard or rebellious, perhaps? For the rest, mostly habit, I should think. Some will say that it calms them, which is probably accurate but it's not the only thing that would and is probably one of the most dangerous.0 -
Ye he could have landed himself a decent UKIP prospect seat at GE2015 (Or 2020 ?) if he'd played the UKIP card.manofkent2014 said:Poor Roger Lord. His behaviour has ensured the end of his political career. I doubt even the MRLP would touch him now. That's what comes of threatening your successor. Now if he'd have kept his gob shut and handled it as a politician should have he'd have got a Gold Medal (as his counterpart in Rochester did) and no doubt preferential treatment down the line when considering other candidacies.
Bit of an idiot, everyone knows how the system works.0 -
Ebola will be like bird flu and all the other health panics - totally overblown and hyped up by the press with logical discussion the first casualty. No doubt we will be treated by updates every five minutes by someone who spends their life glued to Sky News.0
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Well done Eagle. You have navigated the site slightly to starboard but nothing wrong with that. Mike'll soon have us tacking nicely back to to port0
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That's right. Contagion is only a couple of years old and involves various a-listers catching the sniffle, and kicking the bucket.Speedy said:@AndyJS
"Is that the one where a lot of the action takes place on a train?"
No, that is the Cassandra Crossing, a very very seventies film.
If you like a 90's film of that category try the 12 Monkeys.0 -
Mr. Roger, d'you mean leftwards or in the direction of wine?0
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Looking back at the records, the rate of infection seems to be doubling every couple of weeks. This thing is nowhere near it's peak yet.0
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___Bobajob___ - I remember the BBC dismissed AIDS in the beginning as "not as infectious as the common cold" in a dismissive way. If it was as infectious as the common cold we would all be dead now.0
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Lets see what happened the last time with a disease that was transmitted by mice and had only a 25% death rate (which is less than ebola):
http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/middle_ages/black_impact_01.shtml
http://www.brown.edu/Departments/Italian_Studies/dweb/plague/effects/social.php
If there is an epidemic the wealthy will get crushed, as the remaining survivors will demand higher wages due to a shortage of people.
The big problem as with any disease is that no one knows who will live or die.0 -
I don't remember the UK sending military personnel overseas to assist with containing a bird flu pandemic.___Bobajob___ said:Ebola will be like bird flu and all the other health panics - totally overblown and hyped up by the press with logical discussion the first casualty. No doubt we will be treated by updates every five minutes by someone who spends their life glued to Sky News.
Thankfully someone knows better than the Bobajobs.0 -
The York thing may be related to this;
yorkpress.co.uk/News/11524431.Charity_boss_suspended_over_online_abuse_claims/
Last month a Labour councillor defected to the Tories and the guy at the centre of the allegations here appears to be in a relationship with a Tory councillor.
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That means they had the disease while they where in the UK.TheWatcher said:
If the media get wind of a massive order of body bags, and Roger gets a call to make a public information film, we're screwed.Speedy said:Bad news for us.
http://www.channel4.com/news/is-the-uk-equipped-for-an-ebola-outbreak
"A British man suspected of contracting the Ebola virus has died in Macedonia, a senior Macedonian government official confirmed, adding that the victim is thought to have travelled from Britain.
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Reuters a second Briton had also shown symptoms of the virus.
He said the two had been staying at a hotel in the capital Skopje and that hotel staff and the ambulance crew that took them in for treatment had been put into isolation."
That means they had the disease while they where in the UK.
If true there has been a massive breach of medical standards somewhere.
Where did William Pooley, the patient treated at the Royal Free Hospital for the Ebola virus, go after he was discharged from the hospital on September 3rd?
Could he have been discharged prematurely? After all there is not that much knowledge of how the virus develops and alters in the medical world.0 -
Mr. Ajob, you're wrong. SARS, swine fly and bird flu were all overblown (swine flu was even called a pandemic). Ebola has a 70% mortality rate.0
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Hmm.. advice is a FFP3 respirator for medical staff, looks like the equipment used by the Spanish nurse, surely the army has something more effective than that around.0
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How not to catch Ebola
Avoid direct contact with sick patients
Wear goggles to protect eyes
Clothing and clinical waste should be incinerated and any medical equipment that needs to be kept should be decontaminated
People who recover from Ebola should abstain from sex or use condoms for three months
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-295558490 -
Watcher
"If the media get wind of a massive order of body bags, and Roger gets a call to make a public information film, we're screwed."
I think the media are too occupied trying to get the first topless shots of the UAE's first female pilot.
"Boobs on the ground!!"
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2771731/Family-UAE-s-female-fighter-pilot-spearheaded-attacks0 -
@FalseFlag
'Personally I am not worried about millions of deaths from Ebola as long as we don't do anything that might possibly be interpreted as being racist like stopping travellers from Western Africa.'
Yes, it depends if the powers that be think containing the spread of the virus is more important than PC.0 -
True, its more easily contracted and more deadly than the plague right now.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Ajob, you're wrong. SARS, swine fly and bird flu were all overblown (swine flu was even called a pandemic). Ebola has a 70% mortality rate.
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"What is the difference between an FFP1, FFP2 and an FFP3 dust respirator?
Answer:
Simply, an FFP3 will offer greater protection than FFP2 and FFP1.
An FFP1 has an Assigned Protection Factor (APF) of 4, FFP2 has an APF of 10 and an FFP3 has an APF of 20."
Is that it for a lethal virus - which will pass through porcelain filters.0 -
In West Africa, I'd guess the mortality rate here would be lower.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Ajob, you're wrong. SARS, swine fly and bird flu were all overblown (swine flu was even called a pandemic). Ebola has a 70% mortality rate.
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Incidentally, not terribly impressed with the media over screening (yes, the government u-turned).
"People are worried. Why aren't we screening? America's screening. The Government's under pressure."
"The Government u-turned. Not very reassuring. And they told us screening was against medical advice. What changed?"
Reminds me, write small [for now] of Libya when they lambasted the Government for not waving a a magic wand to magically evacuate all the British workers there, who had remained after both Tunisia and Egypt had undergone revolution.0 -
No it doesn't, it looks stupid, and is perceived to look stupid.Casino_Royale said:
It looks cool (or is perceived to be cool)david_herdson said:
FPT - I'm not a smoker, apart from the odd exceedingly rare cigar (maybe five in the last five years).Peter_the_Punter said:
David, an open question to you and all smokers. Why do you do it?david_herdson said:
My bet would be that smokers are disproportionately Labour, though they might also be disproportionately of the disposition that Labour can keep hitting them in the face but they'll keep coming back to them.volcanopete said:Labour still has time to choose the right form of taxes and the tax on Big Tobacco is popular by its silence.It's the Robin Hood Tax that's staring them in the face,a no-brainer if there ever was one.
When I were a lad, it was just about possible to believe the health effects were minor, but these days it is so blindingly obvious that it is a serious health hazard and for absolutely no benefit that it is tempting to believe that only the reckless and utterly stupid ever start in the first place.
And of course we now know how addictive it is, so not starting is by a very long way the easiest way to avoid wrecking your health.
So why does anybody do it? It's bonkers.
Why do people do it? For the few young starters, to look hard or rebellious, perhaps? For the rest, mostly habit, I should think. Some will say that it calms them, which is probably accurate but it's not the only thing that would and is probably one of the most dangerous.
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That reminds me of the government films in the 50's on Atom Bomb fall-out and radiation poisoning. The best advice was: stay in your house under the stairs and cover yourselves with newspaper!Smarmeron said:How not to catch Ebola
Avoid direct contact with sick patients
Wear goggles to protect eyes
Clothing and clinical waste should be incinerated and any medical equipment that needs to be kept should be decontaminated
People who recover from Ebola should abstain from sex or use condoms for three months
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-295558490 -
Mr. Pulpstar, maybe.
In that part of the world malaria has a lower death rate because (being malaria-prone) there's been an odd natural selection *for* sickle cell anaemia (unusually, sickle cell is neither recessive nor dominant and if you have one 'bad' allele for it you have a milder version of sickle cell anaemia, but this means you're resistant to malaria).
I don't think ebola's been around long enough for that sort of thing to develop but I'm not certain. Also, if a major European city got hit then the medical services would be totally overwhelmed. Better medical facilities will help prevent that happening, but it's possible sheer numbers could swamp the system.
Obviously, that's a worst case scenario. I'm hopeful that won't happen.0 -
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Any word on turnout in Clacton and Heywood?0
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Doesn't the government realise that people will turn up for diagnosis only when symptoms are apparent. GPs are going to be terribly exposed. Why not ban air travel? We would quarantine a cruise ship.0
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"People who recover from Ebola should abstain from sex or use condoms for three months" - that has certainly worked for AIDS.0
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You asked why people do it.I think it's stupid, you think it's stupid, but plenty of young people think it's grown-up, cockily diffident, nonchalant, social, confidently casual and even suave.Peter_the_Punter said:
No it doesn't, it looks stupid, and is perceived to look stupid.Casino_Royale said:
It looks cool (or is perceived to be cool)david_herdson said:
FPT - I'm not a smoker, apart from the odd exceedingly rare cigar (maybe five in the last five years).Peter_the_Punter said:
David, an open question to you and all smokers. Why do you do it?david_herdson said:
My bet would be that smokers are disproportionately Labour, though they might also be disproportionately of the disposition that Labour can keep hitting them in the face but they'll keep coming back to them.volcanopete said:Labour still has time to choose the right form of taxes and the tax on Big Tobacco is popular by its silence.It's the Robin Hood Tax that's staring them in the face,a no-brainer if there ever was one.
When I were a lad, it was just about possible to believe the health effects were minor, but these days it is so blindingly obvious that it is a serious health hazard and for absolutely no benefit that it is tempting to believe that only the reckless and utterly stupid ever start in the first place.
And of course we now know how addictive it is, so not starting is by a very long way the easiest way to avoid wrecking your health.
So why does anybody do it? It's bonkers.
Why do people do it? For the few young starters, to look hard or rebellious, perhaps? For the rest, mostly habit, I should think. Some will say that it calms them, which is probably accurate but it's not the only thing that would and is probably one of the most dangerous.
In other words "cool", although they'd never describe it as such. Too taboo.0 -
Lol!Smarmeron said:@Peter_the_Punter
It helps "grass" to burn (allegedly)
When I first tried marijuana (San Francisco 1969) I had first to be taught how to smoke tobacco.
I was never sure if it was the weed or the nicotine that made me feel funny, as I was equally unused to both.
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@Peter_the_Punter
"I was never sure if it was the weed or the nicotine that made me feel funny"
You need to do a series of controlled experiments Peter. ;-)0 -
I think there are no direct flights to the UK from any of the affected countries, so all civilian passengers would have travelled from somewhere else. Short of closing all ports and airports it would not be effective.PAW said:Doesn't the government realise that people will turn up for diagnosis only when symptoms are apparent. GPs are going to be terribly exposed. Why not ban air travel? We would quarantine a cruise ship.
It does show how fragile life is.0 -
There isn't any of the Black population that is so sensitive of their skin colour they would rather take the risk of Ebola than block the flights. People realise they would be the first to be infected.0
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Previous thread Interesting that the most popular Labour policies, a minimum wage increase and maintaining NHS funding are supported or under consideration by the Tories anyway. The freeze in energy and gas bills was proposed by John Major. The real differences are on the Bedroom Tax/Subsidy, and the 50% top tax rate and the Mansion Tax0
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foxinsoxuk has managed to calm me down...0
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I was told I was wrong about all the rest of them too Morris. Ebola is of course, a very dangerous disease. But the hyperbole and panic that will soon ensue will be entirely counterproductive and overblown.0
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Smarmeron said:
@Peter_the_Punter
"I was never sure if it was the weed or the nicotine that made me feel funny"
You need to do a series of controlled experiments Peter. ;-)
Oh Smarmy, if only you knew how many 'controlled experiments' I have done in my life....
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@foxinsoxuk
Might be a time to pray that no one is an asymptomatic carrier?0 -
Its alright for you. Stock up with tinned beans and shotgun cartridges. I am in the front line when it hits...PAW said:foxinsoxuk has managed to calm me down...
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Harry Plowman @HarryPlowman2 57m57 minutes ago
Labour 'Shocked' By UKIP By-Election Machine.
Lab stronghold, but hoping the hard work pays off.
http://bit.ly/1sgGsqi via @BreitbartNews
There may be a surprise in the making here.0 -
Ukip are 14/1 and Labour 1/50.MikeK said:Harry Plowman @HarryPlowman2 57m57 minutes ago
Labour 'Shocked' By UKIP By-Election Machine.
Lab stronghold, but hoping the hard work pays off.
http://bit.ly/1sgGsqi via @BreitbartNews
There may be a surprise in the making here.0 -
I'm here and the Ukip people seem to think it is definitely over 50%AndyJS said:Any word on turnout in Clacton and Heywood?
St Osyth ward apparently was 33% by midday
But that's all I can telly you except I'm outside a polling station and there's been10 in 15 mins since I arrived0 -
In Scotland, SNP MSP Rob Gibson is urging voters to line hamster cages with 60,000 copies of the redundant independence white paper.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2014/10/commons-confidential-lib-dem-red-rodent-peril0 -
Mr. K, even if UKIP gets a strong second in the Labour seat, it'd be a significant accomplishment. A win would be rather dramatic.
Mr. Ajob, I would've agreed with you on the others, and do agree some have cried wolf. Ebola's a different bag of monkeys. Anyway, let's hope it doesn't get a foothold here.0 -
@Peter_the_Punter
Most of my experiments would have been better classed as "uncontrolled"0 -
Disappointing of Cllr Lord to want the LibDems to win in Clacton.Hopefully his intervention won't stop Charlotte's final push.0
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My predictions for tonight :
Cameron will still be PM and the next election will be in May.0 -
The reason people smoke is mainly because it is enjoyable.
I have recently given up – switching to vaping, which is also enjoyable.
It's not possible for people who have never smoked to grasp why smoking is enjoyable I guess.0 -
One of your better forecasts, Harry.TGOHF said:My predictions for tonight :
Cameron will still be PM and the next election will be in May.
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You will hear about it getting a foothold whether it is or not – health scares are like catnip to the press. They sell papers.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. K, even if UKIP gets a strong second in the Labour seat, it'd be a significant accomplishment. A win would be rather dramatic.
Mr. Ajob, I would've agreed with you on the others, and do agree some have cried wolf. Ebola's a different bag of monkeys. Anyway, let's hope it doesn't get a foothold here.0 -
Lol!Smarmeron said:@Peter_the_Punter
Most of my experiments would have been better classed as "uncontrolled"
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Labour should hold comfortably. Initially I expected 50-25.___Bobajob___ said:Ukip are 14/1 and Labour 1/50.
The interesting thing will be how well UKIP do in second, and does the Labour candidate here gain as much as her predecessors in the three previous NW by-elections this Parliament.0 -
mikeK,
"That reminds me of the government films in the 50's on Atom Bomb fall-out and radiation poisoning."
I remember a poster in our local pub. There were ten bullet points of advice. Number one was ... don't panic. It then went on to give similar advice to your film but ended with ... Number nine - lean over and put your head between your legs. Number ten - kiss your arse goodbye.0 -
Yes worth noting that Cons finishing 2nd in Clacton means they have lost - 2nd is nowhere in fptp___Bobajob___ said:
One of your better forecasts, Harry.TGOHF said:My predictions for tonight :
Cameron will still be PM and the next election will be in May.0 -
LSHTM is all over this - Peter Piot is advising the govenment personally.MikeK said:
That means they had the disease while they where in the UK.TheWatcher said:
If the media get wind of a massive order of body bags, and Roger gets a call to make a public information film, we're screwed.Speedy said:Bad news for us.
http://www.channel4.com/news/is-the-uk-equipped-for-an-ebola-outbreak
"A British man suspected of contracting the Ebola virus has died in Macedonia, a senior Macedonian government official confirmed, adding that the victim is thought to have travelled from Britain.
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Reuters a second Briton had also shown symptoms of the virus.
He said the two had been staying at a hotel in the capital Skopje and that hotel staff and the ambulance crew that took them in for treatment had been put into isolation."
That means they had the disease while they where in the UK.
If true there has been a massive breach of medical standards somewhere.
Where did William Pooley, the patient treated at the Royal Free Hospital for the Ebola virus, go after he was discharged from the hospital on September 3rd?
Could he have been discharged prematurely? After all there is not that much knowledge of how the virus develops and alters in the medical world.
The virus can be relatively easily treated with good hygiene, fluids and salts. Mortality is nowhere near 70% if you have a functioning healthcare system.0 -
"Conservatives are struggling to hold on to their vote because they are perceived as being incapable of beating Labour."MikeK said:Harry Plowman @HarryPlowman2 57m57 minutes ago
Labour 'Shocked' By UKIP By-Election Machine.
Lab stronghold, but hoping the hard work pays off.
http://bit.ly/1sgGsqi via @BreitbartNews
There may be a surprise in the making here.
Vote Conservative, get Labour! :-)0 -
I have smoked, Bob, and it is enjoyable. But so are the things it displaces, like good health.___Bobajob___ said:The reason people smoke is mainly because it is enjoyable.
I have recently given up – switching to vaping, which is also enjoyable.
It's not possible for people who have never smoked to grasp why smoking is enjoyable I guess.
The enjoyment however comes from the addiction and is part of it. The puzzle is that people ever start, knowing that it is seriously addictive and has seriously damaging consequences.
I really do find it difficult to avoid viewing smoking as synonymous with stupidity.0 -
I have smoked, once or twice.___Bobajob___ said:The reason people smoke is mainly because it is enjoyable.
I have recently given up – switching to vaping, which is also enjoyable.
It's not possible for people who have never smoked to grasp why smoking is enjoyable I guess.
I can't say its worth the thousands of pounds that it would cost to be a regular smoker in addition to the additional risks of lung cancer and heart disease.
Can you enlighten me ?0 -
Crawley is interesting in the question of the long-term trend of Ukip council losses in by-elections.There seems to be a consistent Con defect to Ukip and then lose to Lab..0
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Cons finishing second will be fine. If they come 3rd I'm in trouble.TGOHF said:
Yes worth noting that Cons finishing 2nd in Clacton means they have lost - 2nd is nowhere in fptp___Bobajob___ said:
One of your better forecasts, Harry.TGOHF said:My predictions for tonight :
Cameron will still be PM and the next election will be in May.0 -
The media loves a good crisis. A good scaremongering campaign sells papers and increases hits and ratings.___Bobajob___ said:I was told I was wrong about all the rest of them too Morris. Ebola is of course, a very dangerous disease. But the hyperbole and panic that will soon ensue will be entirely counterproductive and overblown.
And agreed, nobody is denying ebola is a serious disease and we need to be ready. But a good dose of realism is also needed. It's not the easiest virus to contract and the fact it doesn't become contagious until symptoms manifest is also a relative help.0 -
Yes, given how awkward the transmission mechanism is, I can't help but wonder whether lack of education and media to make people aware of the basic steps is a key boost in this spreading in Africa. And even there it's hardly rampant.Charles said:
LSHTM is all over this - Peter Piot is advising the govenment personally.MikeK said:
That means they had the disease while they where in the UK.TheWatcher said:
If the media get wind of a massive order of body bags, and Roger gets a call to make a public information film, we're screwed.Speedy said:Bad news for us.
http://www.channel4.com/news/is-the-uk-equipped-for-an-ebola-outbreak
"A British man suspected of contracting the Ebola virus has died in Macedonia, a senior Macedonian government official confirmed, adding that the victim is thought to have travelled from Britain.
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Reuters a second Briton had also shown symptoms of the virus.
He said the two had been staying at a hotel in the capital Skopje and that hotel staff and the ambulance crew that took them in for treatment had been put into isolation."
That means they had the disease while they where in the UK.
If true there has been a massive breach of medical standards somewhere.
Where did William Pooley, the patient treated at the Royal Free Hospital for the Ebola virus, go after he was discharged from the hospital on September 3rd?
Could he have been discharged prematurely? After all there is not that much knowledge of how the virus develops and alters in the medical world.
The virus can be relatively easily treated with good hygiene, fluids and salts. Mortality is nowhere near 70% if you have a functioning healthcare system.0 -
Le Pen is already making a move in France.Charles said:
LSHTM is all over this - Peter Piot is advising the govenment personally.MikeK said:
That means they had the disease while they where in the UK.TheWatcher said:
If the media get wind of a massive order of body bags, and Roger gets a call to make a public information film, we're screwed.Speedy said:Bad news for us.
http://www.channel4.com/news/is-the-uk-equipped-for-an-ebola-outbreak
"A British man suspected of contracting the Ebola virus has died in Macedonia, a senior Macedonian government official confirmed, adding that the victim is thought to have travelled from Britain.
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Reuters a second Briton had also shown symptoms of the virus.
He said the two had been staying at a hotel in the capital Skopje and that hotel staff and the ambulance crew that took them in for treatment had been put into isolation."
That means they had the disease while they where in the UK.
If true there has been a massive breach of medical standards somewhere.
Where did William Pooley, the patient treated at the Royal Free Hospital for the Ebola virus, go after he was discharged from the hospital on September 3rd?
Could he have been discharged prematurely? After all there is not that much knowledge of how the virus develops and alters in the medical world.
The virus can be relatively easily treated with good hygiene, fluids and salts. Mortality is nowhere near 70% if you have a functioning healthcare system.
http://www.huffingtonpost.fr/2014/10/09/ebola-front-national-suspendre-liaisons-aeriennes-pays-touches_n_5958204.html?utm_hp_ref=sante
She is asking for suspension of air links with countries suffering from the epidemic.0 -
Pulpstar said:
I have smoked, once or twice.___Bobajob___ said:The reason people smoke is mainly because it is enjoyable.
I have recently given up – switching to vaping, which is also enjoyable.
It's not possible for people who have never smoked to grasp why smoking is enjoyable I guess.
I can't say its worth the thousands of pounds that it would cost to be a regular smoker in addition to the additional risks of lung cancer and heart disease.
Can you enlighten me ?
Intentional pun?? (sorry, I left it in my coat pocket etc)
Anyway it isn't worth it, hence why it's very wise to give up. On any rational basis it's complete madness, for the reasons you posit.0 -
it's estimated that 627,000 people have died of Malaria in the past twelve months...0
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It is however lovely!___Bobajob___ said:Pulpstar said:
I have smoked, once or twice.___Bobajob___ said:The reason people smoke is mainly because it is enjoyable.
I have recently given up – switching to vaping, which is also enjoyable.
It's not possible for people who have never smoked to grasp why smoking is enjoyable I guess.
I can't say its worth the thousands of pounds that it would cost to be a regular smoker in addition to the additional risks of lung cancer and heart disease.
Can you enlighten me ? Intentional pun?? (sorry, I left it in my coat pocket etc)
Anyway it isn't worth it, hence why it's very wise to give up. On any rational basis it's complete madness, for the reasons you posit.
Just very bad for you.0 -
Ha ha - indeedanotherDave said:
"Conservatives are struggling to hold on to their vote because they are perceived as being incapable of beating Labour."MikeK said:Harry Plowman @HarryPlowman2 57m57 minutes ago
Labour 'Shocked' By UKIP By-Election Machine.
Lab stronghold, but hoping the hard work pays off.
http://bit.ly/1sgGsqi via @BreitbartNews
There may be a surprise in the making here.
Vote Conservative, get Labour! :-) 0 -
Enjoyable or addiction? I enjoy Barolo but if I don't have it I don't get the shakes and see electric squirrels running up the walls.___Bobajob___ said:The reason people smoke is mainly because it is enjoyable.
I have recently given up – switching to vaping, which is also enjoyable.
It's not possible for people who have never smoked to grasp why smoking is enjoyable I guess.0 -
I don't think they will finish third in Clacton, Labour have not fought at all in contrast with the Tories. It will take an enormously bad campaign from the Tories do to that, and apart from the cheesy youtube ads, it was low key but mostly decent.Pulpstar said:
Cons finishing second will be fine. If they come 3rd I'm in trouble.TGOHF said:
Yes worth noting that Cons finishing 2nd in Clacton means they have lost - 2nd is nowhere in fptp___Bobajob___ said:
One of your better forecasts, Harry.TGOHF said:My predictions for tonight :
Cameron will still be PM and the next election will be in May.0 -
It is stupid. I accept it was stupid of me to ever start.Peter_the_Punter said:
I have smoked, Bob, and it is enjoyable. But so are the things it displaces, like good health.___Bobajob___ said:The reason people smoke is mainly because it is enjoyable.
I have recently given up – switching to vaping, which is also enjoyable.
It's not possible for people who have never smoked to grasp why smoking is enjoyable I guess.
The enjoyment however comes from the addiction and is part of it. The puzzle is that people ever start, knowing that it is seriously addictive and has seriously damaging consequences.
I really do find it difficult to avoid viewing smoking as synonymous with stupidity.
I wonder whether rather fewer youngsters will start nowadays with smoking (very wisely*) banned in pubs.
In my youth, you'd go into pubs and fags would be part of the experience, the natural progression.
And you'd be drunk, so more susceptible to stupidity.
*One of the best policies ever. The idea that it was ever legal seems utterly ridiculous now.0 -
Speedy, my slightly whimsical thread piece on Clacton tried to make just that point. The Tory effort may have be token, but Labour's was non-existent.Speedy said:
I don't think they will finish third in Clacton, Labour have not fought at all in contrast with the Tories. It will take an enormously bad campaign from the Tories do to that, and apart from the cheesy youtube ads, it was low key but mostly decent.Pulpstar said:
Cons finishing second will be fine. If they come 3rd I'm in trouble.TGOHF said:
Yes worth noting that Cons finishing 2nd in Clacton means they have lost - 2nd is nowhere in fptp___Bobajob___ said:
One of your better forecasts, Harry.TGOHF said:My predictions for tonight :
Cameron will still be PM and the next election will be in May.
Everybody knows what the 1-2-3 will be.0 -
To borrow someone else's phrase, all this proves is that it's catnip for racist xenophobes.Speedy said:
Le Pen is already making a move in France.Charles said:
LSHTM is all over this - Peter Piot is advising the govenment personally.MikeK said:
That means they had the disease while they where in the UK.TheWatcher said:
If the media get wind of a massive order of body bags, and Roger gets a call to make a public information film, we're screwed.Speedy said:Bad news for us.
http://www.channel4.com/news/is-the-uk-equipped-for-an-ebola-outbreak
"A British man suspected of contracting the Ebola virus has died in Macedonia, a senior Macedonian government official confirmed, adding that the victim is thought to have travelled from Britain.
The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Reuters a second Briton had also shown symptoms of the virus.
He said the two had been staying at a hotel in the capital Skopje and that hotel staff and the ambulance crew that took them in for treatment had been put into isolation."
That means they had the disease while they where in the UK.
If true there has been a massive breach of medical standards somewhere.
Where did William Pooley, the patient treated at the Royal Free Hospital for the Ebola virus, go after he was discharged from the hospital on September 3rd?
Could he have been discharged prematurely? After all there is not that much knowledge of how the virus develops and alters in the medical world.
The virus can be relatively easily treated with good hygiene, fluids and salts. Mortality is nowhere near 70% if you have a functioning healthcare system.
http://www.huffingtonpost.fr/2014/10/09/ebola-front-national-suspendre-liaisons-aeriennes-pays-touches_n_5958204.html?utm_hp_ref=sante
She is asking for suspension of air links with countries suffering from the epidemic.0
