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If the polls continue like this can Sunak survive? – politicalbetting.com
If the polls continue like this can Sunak survive? – politicalbetting.com
If the Tories were hoping that the New Year might see a change in their dire polling situation then they will have been disappointed. We’ve now seen enough polls carried out since the start of the year to come to that conclusion.
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If you think the classified document issue will remove him, think again. There just isn't an even vaguely credible route to impeachment, even if the story gets substantially worse for him.
I do think it makes it slightly more likely that Biden doesn't run again, since it tarnishes what was a steadily improving brand, but not massively so.
As an aside, if US energy prices continue to fall, inflation could be way down next year, and interest rates falling again.
Hard to see a healthy Biden not winning again in those circumstances.
Johnson would “leverage” his position over Sunak if the Conservatives did badly in the local elections in May under plans being discussed by his allies.
Four months after he left Downing Street, a determined group of Johnson’s supporters still hope he will return as prime minister before the next general election.
One close ally of the prime minister said that the number of Conservative MPs who wanted Johnson to oust Sunak amounted to “only two dozen, maybe three dozen at most” and warned: “We would just look ridiculous if we changed PM again. Most people get that.”
Yet the former prime minister is unlikely to quit politics. “He would find it very hard to give up,” the ally conceded.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-johnson-wont-oust-rishi-sunak-prime-minister-txhbtcswl
An Oxford academic has apologised for a 1996 email in which he wrote: “Blacks are more stupid than whites.”
In the message, Professor Nick Bostrom added: “I won’t have much success with most people if I speak like that . . . [it] seems to be synonymous with: I hate those bloody n*****s!!!!”
The University of Oxford said it had launched an investigation and condemned “in the strongest terms possible the views this particular academic expressed in his communications”.
Bostrom, a Swedish-born philosopher, is director of Oxford’s Future of Humanity Institute. He made the comments as part of a mailing list for an internet forum, The Extropians. In a statement published on his website, Bostrom said he chose to apologise — and re-publish the message — after hearing rumours that past comments would be “maliciously framed” and used in “smear campaigns”.
Bostrom said that the Extropians forum had been a place for conversations about “science fiction, future technologies, society and all sorts of random things” but that there was also a lot of “silly, mistaken, or outright offensive stuff”.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/blacks-more-stupid-than-whites-wrote-oxford-don-8gsj8l0wf
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/12/support-for-leaving-eu-has-fallen-significantly-across-bloc-since-brexit
Similar swing to Pro EU here...
I imagine most Europeans have looked at the cost/benefit analysis in light of our experience and concluded it isn’t worth the hassle.
Of course, that may change back if political integration continues in its current rather incoherent form.
Mind you in other race/Uni/woke News, and I am sure @Leon has seen it, fields are racist.
https://news.sky.com/story/university-department-removes-the-word-field-over-racist-connotations-12784945
Good news
He is standing down to focus his future career, coincidentally, on Britain’s net zero transformation.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-64257057
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/jan/12/uk-energy-bills-fall-gas-prices-cost-living
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-64257057
@Luckyguy1983 please note.
Nevertheless I'm on that happening at 10/1 because we know Johnson is an opportunist and there may arise an opportunity.
Still strictly speaking 2 years to go.
Only reasonable for a Tory to go where the money is. That hardly detracts from the conclusions of the report.
Oi! Less of this "back then" crap. It was 1996 not 1956!
Making me feel ancient.
Making me feel ancient.
We are further away from 1996 today, than 1996 was to 1956. It is 27 years ago.
Hopefully fixed.
Quarter of a century ago, dammit. It was a very different time - and going back another ten years was almost another world.
I still think he's quite likely to run, but the odds ought to lengthen.
I note that the World Bank downgraded the worldwide forecast from 3% to 1.7% recently.
https://www.investmentweek.co.uk/news/4062500/world-bank-cuts-2023-global-growth-projection#:~:text=The World Bank has cut,January and June last year.
Britain has made major strides and continues to do so on climate change and net zero. I just would question how independent a report can be when written by a vested interest.
Britain would be better governed if politicians were paid more to entice the country’s “brilliant minds” to run for office, ...
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/gary-lineker-pay-mps-more-to-attract-greatest-minds-q9r539cqs (£££)
Economists had expected the economy to shrink by 0.2% in Nov. Instead it gr… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1613797221471862786
The suggestion is for phasing out new gas boilers in a decade's time - not all gas boilers.
Seems achievable to me.
And note it was commissioned by a PM who thought slowing the pace of change would be an economic positive.
If we had a heat pump here we would have to certainly replace all our pipework and probably the radiators too.
However they are looking at Hydrogen boilers as an option so there is always that as an alternative. These have been in development and are currently being trialled. However there would be alot of work to do to get the network ready for hydrogen.
And the rule would force investment to make the change feasible.
A few issues:
(1) Air and ground source heat pumps are extremely expensive and very few can afford them
(2) We have virtually no district hydrogen networks or grids (in fact, at present, I think we actually have none)
(3) Pumps require very very good insulation for the limited heat they generate and circulate through the radiators, more like 15-16C than 20-24C
(4) You can't boost them in cold weather like you can with gas and a thermostat
(5) Air source can be a bit noisy
What family is going to opt for that unless they have lots of money to spend on pumps, retrofit and supplement with a clean wood burner or electric heaters? My sister was quoted £40k for those.
I expect a 5-15% roll out by 2030 at present. The tech isn't good enough, nor is the infrastructure, nor is the government support.
Ecoshaming and hectoring will only get HMG/campaigners so far, but people aren't going to risk bankrupting themselves to make their homes and families cold.
Everyone needs to get real.
Partly because only a fool would trust BoJo to keep his side of the deal. But mostly because if one high-profile backbencher is allowed to chicken run, others will want to as well. See 1997 for how good that looks.
The Conservatives cannot and will not win from here. The dye is cast and the longer it drags the more certain it becomes.
1997 Redux.
But what of the wider perspective. Who are the unlucky constituents who might get saddled with the FLSOJ as their absentee MP? If the good citizens of Uxbridge won't vote for him, why should anyone else?
The rest of the country really doesn't. But, yeah, the world cup was great fun whilst it lasted ...
For example the last Techne poll under Truss had the Tories on just 22% compared to 26% now, the last RedfieldWilton poll on 21% compared to 26% now and the last Yougov on just 19% compared to 25% now.
So Rishi has got a bounce in the Tory voteshare of up to about 5% relative to Truss, mainly from Labour. However the Tories are still polling less than they were when Boris resigned, mainly due to leaks to RefUK
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#Graphical_summary
What will happen here is to use it as a bit of a burning platform for policy/infrastructure decisions, and then the date will be can-kicked out when it gets closer to the time in the late 2020s.
Companies have realised that heat pumps are very expensive and do not work in the way thats promised by the glossy brochures. The technology has to improve before they can be a viable alternative.
https://www.theregister.com/2023/01/12/ev_weight_ntsb_death/
Not expecting fireworks - and plenty of things can screw it up - but I expect it to be better.
[And, no, it probably won't save the Conservatives: but it's now about providing a good defence story at the next GE that mitigates. ]
?????
Ground sourced ones work better on really cold days, or so I am told.
Personally, I would favour the German Passivhaus approach. Seems to work well in Norwich.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/dec/09/social-housing-heating-bills-passivhaus-goldsmith-street-norwich?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other
A lot of people said that wind energy would never amount to anything and now it is happening.
The OECD and IMF are going to look stupid at the end of next year.
November showing positive growth should come as no surprise to anyone paying the slightest bit of attention to what's actually happening on the ground. It's only those people who are stuck in the rubbish models that will be shocked. Let's hope some of these modellers have a retro today and look at why there was such a big miss and adjust them. I'm highly doubtful that this will happen at the international organisation, but the banks will have to do it.
You are correct though, no way back from here.
Moor View (Plymouth) council by-election result:
LAB: 53.2% (+23.9)
CON: 33.0% (-30.5)
IND: 6.9% (+6.9)
GRN: 3.3% (-1.1)
LDEM: 2.9% (+0.6)
TUSC: 0.7% (+0.2)
Votes cast: 2,658
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/10/13/positive-views-of-european-union-reach-new-highs-in-many-countries/
Also not buying the idea that there are lots of Europeans who would like to leave the EU, but have been persuaded by Brexit that it's "not worth the hassle"
from the survey above:
Median % of the 10 countries surveyed:
"have a favourable opinion of the EU": 72%
"have an unfavourable opinion of the EU": 26%
Yes the unfavourable percentage is a bit higher than those who would actually vote leave in an in-out referendum, but that was the case before Brexit too:
Eg France
in this survey from June 2016 https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36471989 has:
Favourable 38%
Unfavourable 61%
Also from June 2016 https://www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2016/06/28/01002-20160628ARTFIG00305-sondage-les-francais-ne-veulent-pas-quitter-l-europe.php
Remain 45%
Leave 33%
So a bigger gap in 2016 than now between "unfavourable" and those who would actually vote to leave. If people in the EU felt they were being forced to stay in Europe against their will because of the threat of punishment beatings you would expect the opposite.
So while they may lose some seats to Labour, the losses may not be too heavy and the Tories might even pick up a few LD seats given the LDs got 19% in the 2019 locals which is about 10% higher than they are polling now
It's also far harder than the cost efficient mass manufacturing of wind turbines and their deployment offshore.
According to the Environmental Protection Agency, the average vehicle weight has reached an all-time record and is predicted to continue rising in the coming years. Vehicle weights dropped considerably in the 1980s compared to highs measured in 1975, but since then the average car and truck has increased from 3,200lbs to 4,200lbs.
That's an average increase of 1,000 pounds, which the National Bureau of Economic Research said in 2011 was enough to increase accident fatality risk by 1,000 percent.
https://www.theregister.com/2023/01/12/ev_weight_ntsb_death/
I'm tired of armchair commentators who know nothing about what they're talking about passing judgement on those who do, and have to do all the work, whilst they recline back in blissful spectation.
These are difficult problems,and they need careful thought, planning, resources and investment.
Assume he's an idiot who's out for himself but has shocking judgement and things become easier.
In this case, assume he's scared of losing his seat and needs some leverage to switch to another one. So he's threatening a leadership run that he can't realistically sustain to blackmail Sunak.
Which works, until you remember even in the best case scenario he's going to need lots of help to survive the Standards and Privileges committee report and instead by showing Sunak he's a threat has just made it much more likely he'll lose the whip and be automatically deselected anyway.
Just about any EV towing a trailer would have the same problem - not that you’d want to tow a trailer with an EV, because it kills the range.
It's not like Britain has a particularly extreme climate. If heat pump technology can be developed to work for continental European homes then it will work just fine for British homes.
I would have done things the other way round - developed the technology and then used the law to mop up refuseniks - but I don't think the timeframe is that unrealistic for development of the technology.
We've had decades of people saying that things aren't possible in terms of moving away from fossil fuels, and the doomsters and gloomsters are always proved wrong. This is an achievable, solvable problem. Let's get it done.