Can Sunak really win back CON to LAB switchers and retain power? – politicalbetting.com
Can Sunak really win back CON to LAB switchers and retain power? – politicalbetting.com
At the weekend the Indy’s John Rentoul had an analysis under the heading “Here’s how Rishi Sunak can win the next election”. The heading was deliberately provocative and this an area that is worth looking at if only because it is against the prevailing narrative.
Comments
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No.0
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Possibly... probably not0
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Time will tell, if he sticks to boring, competent governing then I think he will win enough back to prevent a 1997 style loss, it will be more like 2005. If the stars align he could pull off a 2010 victory.2
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4th like I fear England will finish in the group...0
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I think it needs more than that.MaxPB said:Time will tell, if he sticks to boring, competent governing then I think he will win enough back to prevent a 1997 style loss, it will be more like 2005. If the stars align he could pull off a 2010 victory.
A black swan event (or reverse black swan?) perhaps... WW3, Putin dying, UK winning Eurovision,...
Something outlandish anyway; it's too late for boring competence to save the Tories imho.0 -
On topic, doesn't seem that likely. For all I do not agree with much that @Heathener posts, on this I think she is correct. There has been a shift in the public and the next election is done and dusted. All Sunak can do is hope to minimise the damage, so that Labour doesn't get 10+ years of huge majorities as followed in 1997.
The country is done with Tories. Many people voted for Brexit because they thought it would make things better. Certainly in the short term, it is not doing that. Whether longer term it will is moot for the election - what happens in two years time has been determined by the CoL crisis. That much of that is down to the war and covid matters not, just as Gordon Brown didn't cause the 2008 crisis. The Tories managed to pin Labour with that one, unfairly and will now need to suck it up in return. Plus its really hard to be in power for 12 years and say "things have got really bad over the last decade, when we were in power, now give us a chance to fix it". Rightly the electorate will say "no thanks, you broke it in the first place".
As always the narrative is not the truth, but it is what matters.5 -
No.0
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No. The Conservative MP’s have left no stone unturned in their quest to lose the next election. They won a thumping majority in 2019, and then spent their time lining their pockets at public expense, and enjoying sex with unwilling partners.
The aim must be to get above 200 seats.1 -
Scotland abandoning universal health care? That's a big story that came out of the blue.0
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I suspect that 200 to 250 maybe the unofficial private target. Enough of a base to push for a win next time.Sean_F said:No. The Conservative MP’s have left no stone unturned in their quest to lose the next election. They won a thumping majority in 2019, and then spent their time lining their pockets at public expense, and enjoying sex with unwilling partners.
The aim must be to get above 200 seats.0 -
1992 shows it is possible. At that time the Tories had a leader who was broadly liked and thought competent who took over after a long period in power. He was opposed by Neil Kinnock who could give a great speech but who did not inspire economic competence. Even a recession (and Sunak is having to cope with this too) did not persuade people that the Tories were a part of the problem or that Labour had any meaningful answers.
SKS has nothing like Kinnock's oratory skills but he does come across as a safer pair of hands. Hunt strikes me as a much smarter and smoother operator than Norman Lamont was. Reeves I remain unsure of.
Is it likely? Hell no.4 -
This is weird. Have just got my ticket for the match - at my local cinema. Anyone ever watched football in the cinema before? Hopefully it’s not me and 300 Iranians!1
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Sunak can't win these voters back, but Starmer could lose them.2
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FPT, and on topic, Nick posted this piece by Alastair.
That is one of his best articles.NickPalmer said:Good Meeks piece uncharacteristically suggesting sensible Leaver strategy:
https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/the-nightwatchman-e5345c4bf51f
And I'd have said it's not uncharacteristic of him to offer his opponents good advice.8 -
I watched England's World Cup 2018 matches in pubs in Scotland. The experience of England's progress in that tournament was enhanced for me by the crushing disappointment felt by other viewers in the pub.Sandpit said:This is weird. Have just got my ticket for the match - at my local cinema. Anyone ever watched football in the cinema before? Hopefully it’s not me and 300 Iranians!
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Rishi will follow the Tory playbook of distancing his government from what came before, so:-
Rishi Sunak is considering blocking Boris Johnson’s plan to elevate four Conservative MPs and loyal supporters to the House of Lords.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-may-block-boris-johnsons-peerages-6fh3flc9j (£££)
Turns out there are constitutional issues. For Boris, rules are for other people0 -
There will undoubtedly be a small group of Scots dress in Iran shirts and waving Iran flags today.LostPassword said:
I watched England's World Cup 2018 matches in pubs in Scotland. The experience of England's progress in that tournament was enhanced for me by the crushing disappointment felt by other viewers in the pub.Sandpit said:This is weird. Have just got my ticket for the match - at my local cinema. Anyone ever watched football in the cinema before? Hopefully it’s not me and 300 Iranians!
I would say that they shouldn’t be cheering for a regime with no respect for women’s rights, which sets out to violently clamp down on protests, but I guess it’s now something they’re quite used to up there…3 -
OT Matt Hancock is back out to fourth in the I'm A Celebrity betting. Something must have happened.0
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England back down over Fifa arm band threat
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-cup/2022/11/21/qatar-protests-world-cup-2022-live-lgbt-england-arm-bands-updates/0 -
Ho ho. Mike does a subsamples thread and the man’s a genius. Stuart does a subsamples thread and the man’s a danger to polite society.
Go figure.0 -
Whilst Starmer is no Blair, is there much sign of Sunak being half the retail politician that Major was, especially in the run-up to the 1992 election?DavidL said:1992 shows it is possible. At that time the Tories had a leader who was broadly liked and thought competent who took over after a long period in power. He was opposed by Neil Kinnock who could give a great speech but who did not inspire economic competence. Even a recession (and Sunak is having to cope with this too) did not persuade people that the Tories were a part of the problem or that Labour had any meaningful answers.
SKS has nothing like Kinnock's oratory skills but he does come across as a safer pair of hands. Hunt strikes me as a much smarter and smoother operator than Norman Lamont was. Reeves I remain unsure of.
Is it likely? Hell no.
The other question I have is whether anyone is tracking the voters who went Conservative for the first time in 2019. The ones who went blue for Boris and his Brexit. It's plausible for them to have peeled off, and Sunak (despite having supported Brexit since the early days) doesn't seem ideal to win them back.0 -
Because of course they do. Cowards.FrancisUrquhart said:England back down over Fifa arm band threat
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-cup/2022/11/21/qatar-protests-world-cup-2022-live-lgbt-england-arm-bands-updates/1 -
The problem isn't Sunak IMO. Sunak is the epitome of boring and competent (or would be, if it were not for Starmer...)MaxPB said:Time will tell, if he sticks to boring, competent governing then I think he will win enough back to prevent a 1997 style loss, it will be more like 2005. If the stars align he could pull off a 2010 victory.
The problem is the party. It has a series of massive rifts; does he have the authority to fix them? Does he have the time to fix them> (Starmer's work on the Labour Party is still ongoing). In addition, the party is stale: it has run out of ideas and is far from fresh.0 -
A lot of people will have already bet on an early booking.FrancisUrquhart said:England back down over Fifa arm band threat
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-cup/2022/11/21/qatar-protests-world-cup-2022-live-lgbt-england-arm-bands-updates/0 -
There is a high degree of confidence that advice will go unheededNigelb said:FPT, and on topic, Nick posted this piece by Alastair.
That is one of his best articles.NickPalmer said:Good Meeks piece uncharacteristically suggesting sensible Leaver strategy:
https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/the-nightwatchman-e5345c4bf51f
And I'd have said it's not uncharacteristic of him to offer his opponents good advice.0 -
Sunak is probably the Tories best bet for winning back Tory voters lost to Labour. However they also need to win back 2019 Tory voters who are now undecided and some of the 7% who now back RefUK0
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Off topic, just looking at Gridwatch this morning - we are running a coal-fired unit so that we can export the power to France.
Doesn't sound too green to me.0 -
The Conservatives tried the desperate last throw of the dice in January 1997 with their Demon Eyes campaign against Tony Blair. It didn't work then and it won't work now.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/election2001/images/0,9350,449562,00.html
@MikeSmithson is reluctant to accept that Labour will win an outright victory next time because he is pinned to the precedent of swing. But these are unprecedented times. We have been through experiences last felt during the second world war and the economic situation is dire.
But if you really want to fixate on the swing precedent then you should take as your pendulum starting point 2017 NOT 2019. The last General Election was an anomaly, focused on Brexit and against an unelectable Labour leader.
My thesis is that we begin the next General Election from the 2017 hung parliament. The swing to Labour required to secure them an overall majority is small.
The polls are not lying.They will win it resoundingly.0 -
Mr. Urquhart, be fair. England's football team have developed a habit of falling to their knees.1
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Major won in 1992 mainly to keep Kinnock out, despite over 10 years of Tory government. As soon as LabourDavidL said:1992 shows it is possible. At that time the Tories had a leader who was broadly liked and thought competent who took over after a long period in power. He was opposed by Neil Kinnock who could give a great speech but who did not inspire economic competence. Even a recession (and Sunak is having to cope with this too) did not persuade people that the Tories were a part of the problem or that Labour had any meaningful answers.
SKS has nothing like Kinnock's oratory skills but he does come across as a safer pair of hands. Hunt strikes me as a much smarter and smoother operator than Norman Lamont was. Reeves I remain unsure of.
Is it likely? Hell no.
had a more plausible leader in Blair then Major lost heavily in 1997.
Starmer does not attract the sane negativity amongst swing voters Kinnock did and certainly much less than Corbyn did2 -
Really all the modern countries should have just boycotted the tournament.Sandpit said:
Because of course they do. Cowards.FrancisUrquhart said:England back down over Fifa arm band threat
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-cup/2022/11/21/qatar-protests-world-cup-2022-live-lgbt-england-arm-bands-updates/
I wonder what would have happened if the ref (Brazilian) refused to book players for wearing the armband?0 -
Then get down the bookies!turbotubbs said:4th like I fear England will finish in the group...
Wales 6.25
Draw 4.1
England 1.630 -
He can and he probably will - but not enough to avoid a Lab majority.0
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Brains Trust:
Can anyone point me to a good detailed analysis of the budget documents? As ever, that is where the devil is.
Housing Market Support: I see that Mortgage Support has been changed - the 9 months required on certain benefits before people can request to turn their mortgage interest / capital repayments into a secured loan on part of the property is being reduced to 3 months from Apr 2023. Looks designed to prevent people who start to need benefits this winter being made homeless next year.
I also see that various things are being frozen in cash terms (ie cut by 10% in real terms). Child TAx Credit being one example.
Cheers
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It was 9/1 last night, which at least looks like a value loser.DecrepiterJohnL said:
A lot of people will have already bet on an early booking.FrancisUrquhart said:England back down over Fifa arm band threat
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-cup/2022/11/21/qatar-protests-world-cup-2022-live-lgbt-england-arm-bands-updates/
Did it close in?0 -
That's a very good and fair summary. The big difference being, in 1992 the recession was over. How that plays out will possibly be decisive. Not sure that Sunak is the equal of Major in campaigning, but we will see.. Nor his Cabinet in competence neither.DavidL said:1992 shows it is possible. At that time the Tories had a leader who was broadly liked and thought competent who took over after a long period in power. He was opposed by Neil Kinnock who could give a great speech but who did not inspire economic competence. Even a recession (and Sunak is having to cope with this too) did not persuade people that the Tories were a part of the problem or that Labour had any meaningful answers.
SKS has nothing like Kinnock's oratory skills but he does come across as a safer pair of hands. Hunt strikes me as a much smarter and smoother operator than Norman Lamont was. Reeves I remain unsure of.
Is it likely? Hell no.2 -
It's blooming difficult advice to follow, to be fair. Both emotionally (2015-19 was all about the denial of something-for-something as a negotiation tactic, or at least a miscalculation of the values of what we were offering and demanding) and practically (what bone can remainers/rapprochementers/rejoiners be given that won't break the government?).Scott_xP said:
There is a high degree of confidence that advice will go unheededNigelb said:FPT, and on topic, Nick posted this piece by Alastair.
That is one of his best articles.NickPalmer said:Good Meeks piece uncharacteristically suggesting sensible Leaver strategy:
https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/the-nightwatchman-e5345c4bf51f
And I'd have said it's not uncharacteristic of him to offer his opponents good advice.0 -
BBC universally abandoning journalistic integrity. That’s the big turd in Scottish public life.glw said:Scotland abandoning universal health care? That's a big story that came out of the blue.
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It would be more powerful if the players made their gestures of support, at a time when those gestures actually mean something, and there’s a chance they get into real trouble for them in front of the worldwide audience.AlistairM said:
Really all the modern countries should have just boycotted the tournament.Sandpit said:
Because of course they do. Cowards.FrancisUrquhart said:England back down over Fifa arm band threat
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-cup/2022/11/21/qatar-protests-world-cup-2022-live-lgbt-england-arm-bands-updates/
I wonder what would have happened if the ref (Brazilian) refused to book players for wearing the armband?
Contrast with the virtue-signalling of the past couple of years, where everyone that mattered was cheering them on.0 -
Shameful, and renders their kneeling at kick-off risible.FrancisUrquhart said:England back down over Fifa arm band threat
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-cup/2022/11/21/qatar-protests-world-cup-2022-live-lgbt-england-arm-bands-updates/1 -
The closet racists who have decamped to ReFuk won't be coming back with Sunak in charge.HYUFD said:Sunak is probably the Tories best bet for winning back Tory voters lost to Labour. However they also need to win back 2019 Tory voters who are now undecided and some of the 7% who now back RefUK
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Another good point. The consistent subsamples (I know) from the North suggest it is a fool me once scenario thus far.Stuartinromford said:
Whilst Starmer is no Blair, is there much sign of Sunak being half the retail politician that Major was, especially in the run-up to the 1992 election?DavidL said:1992 shows it is possible. At that time the Tories had a leader who was broadly liked and thought competent who took over after a long period in power. He was opposed by Neil Kinnock who could give a great speech but who did not inspire economic competence. Even a recession (and Sunak is having to cope with this too) did not persuade people that the Tories were a part of the problem or that Labour had any meaningful answers.
SKS has nothing like Kinnock's oratory skills but he does come across as a safer pair of hands. Hunt strikes me as a much smarter and smoother operator than Norman Lamont was. Reeves I remain unsure of.
Is it likely? Hell no.
The other question I have is whether anyone is tracking the voters who went Conservative for the first time in 2019. The ones who went blue for Boris and his Brexit. It's plausible for them to have peeled off, and Sunak (despite having supported Brexit since the early days) doesn't seem ideal to win them back.0 -
Even better, left Fifa and set up their own equivalent.AlistairM said:
Really all the modern countries should have just boycotted the tournament.Sandpit said:
Because of course they do. Cowards.FrancisUrquhart said:England back down over Fifa arm band threat
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-cup/2022/11/21/qatar-protests-world-cup-2022-live-lgbt-england-arm-bands-updates/
I wonder what would have happened if the ref (Brazilian) refused to book players for wearing the armband?
I do however have some sympathy for Fifa on the particular issue of armbands. If my position is to keep politics out, I don't change my position just because I happen to agree with the issuein question (i.e. not persecuting gay people). And that position isn't dependent on Harry Kane wearing an armband or not.0 -
Check the rules. AIUI most bookies would not count a yellow card given before the start (or after the end) of the match anyway.DecrepiterJohnL said:
A lot of people will have already bet on an early booking.FrancisUrquhart said:England back down over Fifa arm band threat
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-cup/2022/11/21/qatar-protests-world-cup-2022-live-lgbt-england-arm-bands-updates/0 -
Is alcohol available on the premises?Sandpit said:This is weird. Have just got my ticket for the match - at my local cinema. Anyone ever watched football in the cinema before? Hopefully it’s not me and 300 Iranians!
I did it last World Cup, but that was while in was in Northern Ireland. Not *quite* the same.0 -
I think SandyRentool has already adequately set out the rebuttal to the proposition with the first post.0
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I am more outraged that it looks like Foden is going to be bench warming....while out of form Sterling, Mount, Shaw and Maguire start.Driver said:
Shameful, and renders their kneeling at kick-off risible.FrancisUrquhart said:England back down over Fifa arm band threat
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-cup/2022/11/21/qatar-protests-world-cup-2022-live-lgbt-england-arm-bands-updates/0 -
French nuclear output is creeping back up, nearly 32 GW today, but it's still well down on the 40+ GW they produced last winter.SandyRentool said:Off topic, just looking at Gridwatch this morning - we are running a coal-fired unit so that we can export the power to France.
Doesn't sound too green to me.
So it's a case of needs must on exporting coal-fired electricity to France at the moment. It's a shame the government haven't pulled out all the stops on alternatives.
Have Labour said anything interesting on energy policy?
Edit: Interestingly gridwatch has France producing more wind energy than Britain at the moment, which seems unusual. They must have installed quite a lot of capacity fairly recently.0 -
You think he's governing, um, competently?MaxPB said:Time will tell, if he sticks to boring, competent governing then I think he will win enough back to prevent a 1997 style loss, it will be more like 2005. If the stars align he could pull off a 2010 victory.
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Sadly not, all but a couple of boutique cinemas out here are ‘dry’. I’m working until right up to the kick off, next door to the cinema, and have to drive home afterwards! It was my only option.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Is alcohol available on the premises?Sandpit said:This is weird. Have just got my ticket for the match - at my local cinema. Anyone ever watched football in the cinema before? Hopefully it’s not me and 300 Iranians!
I did it last World Cup, but that was while in was in Northern Ireland. Not *quite* the same.1 -
Perhaps, except that Fifa rolling over on issues agreed before the tournament and they would normally be firm about (beer) and engaging in utterly absurd whataboutery about 3000 years of Western guilt to distract from criticism, does give the impression they are completely desperate to suck up to the Qataris, and they could have addressed all these things long before the tournament started.Cookie said:
Even better, left Fifa and set up their own equivalent.AlistairM said:
Really all the modern countries should have just boycotted the tournament.Sandpit said:
Because of course they do. Cowards.FrancisUrquhart said:England back down over Fifa arm band threat
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-cup/2022/11/21/qatar-protests-world-cup-2022-live-lgbt-england-arm-bands-updates/
I wonder what would have happened if the ref (Brazilian) refused to book players for wearing the armband?
I do however have some sympathy for Fifa on the particular issue of armbands. If my position is to keep politics out, I don't change my position just because I happen to agree with the issuein question (i.e. not persecuting gay people). And that position isn't dependent on Harry Kane wearing an armband or not.3 -
It is very good, but it doesn’t look like he’s seen this:Nigelb said:FPT, and on topic, Nick posted this piece by Alastair.
That is one of his best articles.NickPalmer said:Good Meeks piece uncharacteristically suggesting sensible Leaver strategy:
https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/the-nightwatchman-e5345c4bf51f
And I'd have said it's not uncharacteristic of him to offer his opponents good advice.
https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/chancellor-rishi-sunaks-mais-lecture-20220 -
We must stand up against discrimination...if the authorities allow it.Driver said:
Shameful, and renders their kneeling at kick-off risible.FrancisUrquhart said:England back down over Fifa arm band threat
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-cup/2022/11/21/qatar-protests-world-cup-2022-live-lgbt-england-arm-bands-updates/
(I actually am not that critical of the players themselves, major sporting events are restrictive on messaging even ones we like, but it does somewhat show that you shouldn't try to promote things if you are going to be able to be brought in line so easily).1 -
Would their own equivalent be called the European Championships perhaps? Large chunks of the world are behind us on gay rights. Should England have been allowed to host in 1966 when homosexuality was still illegal here? It is sadly unrealistic to expect every nation to change at an identical pace.Cookie said:
Even better, left Fifa and set up their own equivalent.AlistairM said:
Really all the modern countries should have just boycotted the tournament.Sandpit said:
Because of course they do. Cowards.FrancisUrquhart said:England back down over Fifa arm band threat
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-cup/2022/11/21/qatar-protests-world-cup-2022-live-lgbt-england-arm-bands-updates/
I wonder what would have happened if the ref (Brazilian) refused to book players for wearing the armband?
I do however have some sympathy for Fifa on the particular issue of armbands. If my position is to keep politics out, I don't change my position just because I happen to agree with the issuein question (i.e. not persecuting gay people). And that position isn't dependent on Harry Kane wearing an armband or not.
World sporting events drive standards up, yes slowly and over time, but they significantly influence the young globally even in oppressed countries.
I think the footballers have got it about right, wanting to talk about it and push it as far as they can without sporting sanction.0 -
Which is why I think it is extremely unlikely. But, not impossible.HYUFD said:
Major won in 1992 mainly to keep Kinnock out, despite over 10 years of Tory government. As soon as LabourDavidL said:1992 shows it is possible. At that time the Tories had a leader who was broadly liked and thought competent who took over after a long period in power. He was opposed by Neil Kinnock who could give a great speech but who did not inspire economic competence. Even a recession (and Sunak is having to cope with this too) did not persuade people that the Tories were a part of the problem or that Labour had any meaningful answers.
SKS has nothing like Kinnock's oratory skills but he does come across as a safer pair of hands. Hunt strikes me as a much smarter and smoother operator than Norman Lamont was. Reeves I remain unsure of.
Is it likely? Hell no.
had a more plausible leader in Blair then Major lost heavily in 1997.
Starmer does not attract the sane negativity amongst swing voters Kinnock did and certainly much less than Corbyn did0 -
If wearing an armband gets a booking, so should kneeling at kick-off.Cookie said:
Even better, left Fifa and set up their own equivalent.AlistairM said:
Really all the modern countries should have just boycotted the tournament.Sandpit said:
Because of course they do. Cowards.FrancisUrquhart said:England back down over Fifa arm band threat
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-cup/2022/11/21/qatar-protests-world-cup-2022-live-lgbt-england-arm-bands-updates/
I wonder what would have happened if the ref (Brazilian) refused to book players for wearing the armband?
I do however have some sympathy for Fifa on the particular issue of armbands. If my position is to keep politics out, I don't change my position just because I happen to agree with the issuein question (i.e. not persecuting gay people). And that position isn't dependent on Harry Kane wearing an armband or not.2 -
Does the FA not have money, why cannot they take and then pay a fine? The players could chip in if it caused budgetary issues.0
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They could at least send Ramsdale on with a minute to go and give him the errant armband, just to see what happens.Sandpit said:
Because of course they do. Cowards.FrancisUrquhart said:England back down over Fifa arm band threat
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-cup/2022/11/21/qatar-protests-world-cup-2022-live-lgbt-england-arm-bands-updates/
The best option would have been not to go.0 -
Its not the money, its the yellow card they will get and thus banned after two games.kle4 said:Does the FA not have money, why cannot they take and then pay a fine? The players could chip in if it caused budgetary issues.
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The FA are happy to pay a fine. Not happy to have Kane on a yellow with the risk of a red here or a suspension later in the tournament.kle4 said:Does the FA not have money, why cannot they take and then pay a fine? The players could chip in if it caused budgetary issues.
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IMO it is farfetched to suggest that the Tories can win this back for 2024 - Boris would have had to have gone a year early for that to be possible. Instead he clung on in office defecating on his reputation.
I'd say it will be about moving towards more practical measures and booking which benefits can be booked, and leaving a few bombs on the next Govt's lap eg taxation of electric cars.0 -
Lol only an hour ago I heard how they'd all be proud to wear the armband.1
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This is nothing like 1987-1992 though. The opinion polls are completely different:DavidL said:1992 shows it is possible. A.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1992_United_Kingdom_general_election#1992
Time for y'all to pay attention to the polls. There is NO comeback from here for the tories. Forget it. Reset your minds.
The REAL question is just how much of a shellacking they are going to get. Just how big a majority will Labour get? That's the only remaining question at the next election.1 -
noneoftheabove said:
The FA are happy to pay a fine. Not happy to have Kane on a yellow with the risk of a red here or a suspension later in the tournament.kle4 said:Does the FA not have money, why cannot they take and then pay a fine? The players could chip in if it caused budgetary issues.
Yes, an effective threat. I wonder what guidance the referees have been given about yellows for 'excessive' celebrations.FrancisUrquhart said:
Its not the money, its the yellow card they will get and thus banned after two games.kle4 said:Does the FA not have money, why cannot they take and then pay a fine? The players could chip in if it caused budgetary issues.
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It's possible, I think, that the Conservatives could be the largest party.
But I think the overwhelmingly likelihood is that Labour will be, with a small but credible chance of an outright majority worth having.
They should consider how a coalition might work, though, and what they'd be willing to negotiate with the Lib Dems.2 -
Excessive? Quick snog?kle4 said:noneoftheabove said:
The FA are happy to pay a fine. Not happy to have Kane on a yellow with the risk of a red here or a suspension later in the tournament.kle4 said:Does the FA not have money, why cannot they take and then pay a fine? The players could chip in if it caused budgetary issues.
Yes, an effective threat. I wonder what guidance the referees have been given about yellows for 'excessive' celebrations.FrancisUrquhart said:
Its not the money, its the yellow card they will get and thus banned after two games.kle4 said:Does the FA not have money, why cannot they take and then pay a fine? The players could chip in if it caused budgetary issues.
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Presumably kneeling is before kick-off, or the start of the match would be rather undignified. When does the referee's power to award yellow cards begin and end?Driver said:
If wearing an armband gets a booking, so should kneeling at kick-off.Cookie said:
Even better, left Fifa and set up their own equivalent.AlistairM said:
Really all the modern countries should have just boycotted the tournament.Sandpit said:
Because of course they do. Cowards.FrancisUrquhart said:England back down over Fifa arm band threat
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-cup/2022/11/21/qatar-protests-world-cup-2022-live-lgbt-england-arm-bands-updates/
I wonder what would have happened if the ref (Brazilian) refused to book players for wearing the armband?
I do however have some sympathy for Fifa on the particular issue of armbands. If my position is to keep politics out, I don't change my position just because I happen to agree with the issuein question (i.e. not persecuting gay people). And that position isn't dependent on Harry Kane wearing an armband or not.0 -
If all 11 players (+ subs) were banned and England couldn't field a team it would make a fitting mockery of this World Cup.FrancisUrquhart said:
Its not the money, its the yellow card they will get and thus banned after two games.kle4 said:Does the FA not have money, why cannot they take and then pay a fine? The players could chip in if it caused budgetary issues.
1 -
Players already get booked for taking off their shirts or leaping into the crowd, it would be pretty easy to give direction for 'political' celebrations to likewise face sanction.noneoftheabove said:
Excessive? Quick snog?kle4 said:noneoftheabove said:
The FA are happy to pay a fine. Not happy to have Kane on a yellow with the risk of a red here or a suspension later in the tournament.kle4 said:Does the FA not have money, why cannot they take and then pay a fine? The players could chip in if it caused budgetary issues.
Yes, an effective threat. I wonder what guidance the referees have been given about yellows for 'excessive' celebrations.FrancisUrquhart said:
Its not the money, its the yellow card they will get and thus banned after two games.kle4 said:Does the FA not have money, why cannot they take and then pay a fine? The players could chip in if it caused budgetary issues.
0 -
At what point do yellow cards get waived?Benpointer said:
If all 11 players (+ subs) were banned and England couldn't field a team it would make a fitting mockery of this World Cup.FrancisUrquhart said:
Its not the money, its the yellow card they will get and thus banned after two games.kle4 said:Does the FA not have money, why cannot they take and then pay a fine? The players could chip in if it caused budgetary issues.
Is there an opportunity to do this in the 3rd group game, for example, if (praise be) England are already through?0 -
Whilst it might look like that - it looks like we've been running the coal power station to about 0.5GW for a portion of a day fairly regularly since the start of November - I am assuming that there is an element of 'checking it works regularly' comfortably in advance of the 5 days when we will actually need it properly at full tiltSandyRentool said:Off topic, just looking at Gridwatch this morning - we are running a coal-fired unit so that we can export the power to France.
Doesn't sound too green to me.0 -
Trouble is, if we should boycott Qatar, should we not also refuse to play Iran for killing girls and gay people? Meanwhile, Formula 1 and (some) golfers are happy to sportswash those cuddly Saudis who, in shock news that will surprise no-one, have resumed executions at record pace.AlistairM said:
Really all the modern countries should have just boycotted the tournament.Sandpit said:
Because of course they do. Cowards.FrancisUrquhart said:England back down over Fifa arm band threat
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-cup/2022/11/21/qatar-protests-world-cup-2022-live-lgbt-england-arm-bands-updates/
I wonder what would have happened if the ref (Brazilian) refused to book players for wearing the armband?
Saudi Arabia has executed 12 people in 10 days for drug offences after a two-year hiatus, according to a human rights organisation.
The spate of executions - most of which are beheadings with a sword - is part of a wider trend that suggests the country is on track for a record year of executions despite Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman previously vowing to reduce the use of such punishments.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/11/20/saudi-arabia-beheads-people-sword-new-wave-executions/ (£££)
ETA and just where are we buying our non-Russian gas?1 -
So what would make a 1992 possible?
Firstly, the economy would have to perform much better than the OBR have forecast. That is certainly possible.
Secondly, SKS would either have to tar his reputation somewhat or go under the proverbial bus. Much less likely.
Thirdly, the government would need to reach better deals with the EU and France in respect of the channel. Possible and very much in hand.
The difference to me seems to come down to SKS being far more electable than Kinnock ever was. Unless that changes the Tories are toast.0 -
Given previous stances on things like wearing the poppy on the shirt being deemed as a political act, plus FIFA corruption towards anybody who pays them, this was always going to be the outcome.2
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It certainly ends well after the match has finished. Plenty of stories of players being sent off in the car park!Stuartinromford said:
Presumably kneeling is before kick-off, or the start of the match would be rather undignified. When does the referee's power to award yellow cards begin and end?Driver said:
If wearing an armband gets a booking, so should kneeling at kick-off.Cookie said:
Even better, left Fifa and set up their own equivalent.AlistairM said:
Really all the modern countries should have just boycotted the tournament.Sandpit said:
Because of course they do. Cowards.FrancisUrquhart said:England back down over Fifa arm band threat
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-cup/2022/11/21/qatar-protests-world-cup-2022-live-lgbt-england-arm-bands-updates/
I wonder what would have happened if the ref (Brazilian) refused to book players for wearing the armband?
I do however have some sympathy for Fifa on the particular issue of armbands. If my position is to keep politics out, I don't change my position just because I happen to agree with the issuein question (i.e. not persecuting gay people). And that position isn't dependent on Harry Kane wearing an armband or not.0 -
The referee has the authority to take disciplinary action from entering the field of play for the pre-match inspection until leaving the field of play after the match ends (including kicks from the penalty mark).Stuartinromford said:
Presumably kneeling is before kick-off, or the start of the match would be rather undignified. When does the referee's power to award yellow cards begin and end?Driver said:
If wearing an armband gets a booking, so should kneeling at kick-off.Cookie said:
Even better, left Fifa and set up their own equivalent.AlistairM said:
Really all the modern countries should have just boycotted the tournament.Sandpit said:
Because of course they do. Cowards.FrancisUrquhart said:England back down over Fifa arm band threat
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-cup/2022/11/21/qatar-protests-world-cup-2022-live-lgbt-england-arm-bands-updates/
I wonder what would have happened if the ref (Brazilian) refused to book players for wearing the armband?
I do however have some sympathy for Fifa on the particular issue of armbands. If my position is to keep politics out, I don't change my position just because I happen to agree with the issuein question (i.e. not persecuting gay people). And that position isn't dependent on Harry Kane wearing an armband or not.
If, before entering the field of play at the start of the match, a player or team official commits a sending-off offence, the referee has the authority to prevent the player or team official taking part in the match (see Law 3.6); the referee will report any other misconduct.
https://www.thefa.com/football-rules-governance/lawsandrules/laws/football-11-11/law-12---fouls-and-misconduct1 -
How would that work?Driver said:
If wearing an armband gets a booking, so should kneeling at kick-off.Cookie said:
Even better, left Fifa and set up their own equivalent.AlistairM said:
Really all the modern countries should have just boycotted the tournament.Sandpit said:
Because of course they do. Cowards.FrancisUrquhart said:England back down over Fifa arm band threat
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-cup/2022/11/21/qatar-protests-world-cup-2022-live-lgbt-england-arm-bands-updates/
I wonder what would have happened if the ref (Brazilian) refused to book players for wearing the armband?
I do however have some sympathy for Fifa on the particular issue of armbands. If my position is to keep politics out, I don't change my position just because I happen to agree with the issuein question (i.e. not persecuting gay people). And that position isn't dependent on Harry Kane wearing an armband or not.
Tough if you need to tie your laces.0 -
How unlikely? 10% chance, or 1%? Where would you put it?DavidL said:
Which is why I think it is extremely unlikely. But, not impossible.HYUFD said:
Major won in 1992 mainly to keep Kinnock out, despite over 10 years of Tory government. As soon as LabourDavidL said:1992 shows it is possible. At that time the Tories had a leader who was broadly liked and thought competent who took over after a long period in power. He was opposed by Neil Kinnock who could give a great speech but who did not inspire economic competence. Even a recession (and Sunak is having to cope with this too) did not persuade people that the Tories were a part of the problem or that Labour had any meaningful answers.
SKS has nothing like Kinnock's oratory skills but he does come across as a safer pair of hands. Hunt strikes me as a much smarter and smoother operator than Norman Lamont was. Reeves I remain unsure of.
Is it likely? Hell no.
had a more plausible leader in Blair then Major lost heavily in 1997.
Starmer does not attract the sane negativity amongst swing voters Kinnock did and certainly much less than Corbyn did
I'm of the view that the Tories are well-past the electoral event horizon now, and heading for a crushing defeat, so I'd put the odds of the situation being turned around as very long. 1%, perhaps.2 -
They'd still risk being sent off for a second bookable offence during the game.TheWhiteRabbit said:
At what point do yellow cards get waived?Benpointer said:
If all 11 players (+ subs) were banned and England couldn't field a team it would make a fitting mockery of this World Cup.FrancisUrquhart said:
Its not the money, its the yellow card they will get and thus banned after two games.kle4 said:Does the FA not have money, why cannot they take and then pay a fine? The players could chip in if it caused budgetary issues.
Is there an opportunity to do this in the 3rd group game, for example, if (praise be) England are already through?0 -
Nothing because this is nothing like 1992.DavidL said:So what would make a 1992 possible?
.
Stop making a false comparison please. It's misleading.
The truth is that this is psepholoically like 1997 but economically FAR WORSE.
Conservatives on here need to prepare for the Dark Night of the Soul.0 -
Can I pls register an official complaint at the constant use of the phrase "boring competent government"? It's getting said so much - by people of all political shades - that the words "boring" and "competent" are starting to get fused as if they belong together. Implication being competence in government is inherently boring and therefore the sort of shambolic chicanery we had under Johnson, or the surreal nonsense of Truss, was in some way thrilling and set the pulse racing. Certainly speaking for myself this is not true. I can't tell you how bored I got of Boris Johnson's antics, and the Trussterfuck had me almost catatonic with despair. It really was hard to stay interested in what was going on. If Sunak - and after him Starmer with his nice big Lab majority - really can do competent government which serves the country well I'll be animated and - yes - amused by this. It'll be a right laugh.8
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Think it is from pre match inspection to ref and the players having left the pitch after the final whistle.Stuartinromford said:
Presumably kneeling is before kick-off, or the start of the match would be rather undignified. When does the referee's power to award yellow cards begin and end?Driver said:
If wearing an armband gets a booking, so should kneeling at kick-off.Cookie said:
Even better, left Fifa and set up their own equivalent.AlistairM said:
Really all the modern countries should have just boycotted the tournament.Sandpit said:
Because of course they do. Cowards.FrancisUrquhart said:England back down over Fifa arm band threat
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-cup/2022/11/21/qatar-protests-world-cup-2022-live-lgbt-england-arm-bands-updates/
I wonder what would have happened if the ref (Brazilian) refused to book players for wearing the armband?
I do however have some sympathy for Fifa on the particular issue of armbands. If my position is to keep politics out, I don't change my position just because I happen to agree with the issuein question (i.e. not persecuting gay people). And that position isn't dependent on Harry Kane wearing an armband or not.0 -
It's a very plausible scenario (two years to go, lots can happen etc), but you're right, some people are assuming previous norms apply to future elections; however we're living through chaos and chaos upsets those norms. Like you, I'm betting accordingly.Heathener said:The Conservatives tried the desperate last throw of the dice in January 1997 with their Demon Eyes campaign against Tony Blair. It didn't work then and it won't work now.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/election2001/images/0,9350,449562,00.html
@MikeSmithson is reluctant to accept that Labour will win an outright victory next time because he is pinned to the precedent of swing. But these are unprecedented times. We have been through experiences last felt during the second world war and the economic situation is dire.
But if you really want to fixate on the swing precedent then you should take as your pendulum starting point 2017 NOT 2019. The last General Election was an anomaly, focused on Brexit and against an unelectable Labour leader.
My thesis is that we begin the next General Election from the 2017 hung parliament. The swing to Labour required to secure them an overall majority is small.
The polls are not lying.They will win it resoundingly.0 -
Eternal damnation, hopefully.Heathener said:
Nothing because this is nothing like 1992.DavidL said:So what would make a 1992 possible?
.
Stop making a false comparison please. It's misleading.
The truth is that this is psepholoically like 1997 but economically FAR WORSE.
Conservatives on here need to prepare for the Dark Night of the Soul.0 -
Well, sure, that's why it has to be a game we don't have to win. Just stay on your feet.Benpointer said:
They'd still rick being sent off for a second bookable offence during the game.TheWhiteRabbit said:
At what point do yellow cards get waived?Benpointer said:
If all 11 players (+ subs) were banned and England couldn't field a team it would make a fitting mockery of this World Cup.FrancisUrquhart said:
Its not the money, its the yellow card they will get and thus banned after two games.kle4 said:Does the FA not have money, why cannot they take and then pay a fine? The players could chip in if it caused budgetary issues.
Is there an opportunity to do this in the 3rd group game, for example, if (praise be) England are already through?0 -
The counterfactual, could Con have won had Sunak been elected leader in September?
No Trusster-disaster, but it would have left Sunak the bearer of any fiscal bad news that would have happened anyway, and that fiscal bad news would have been pointed more directly back to his stint as CoTE.
The Tory position may have been better, but not that much better.1 -
That tangentially shows how Rwanda for channel crossers is doomed to failure. If people carry on taking drugs under threat of decapitation, they will continue crossing the channel under the much remoter threat of deporation. Deterrence don't deter.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Trouble is, if we should boycott Qatar, should we not also refuse to play Iran for killing girls and gay people? Meanwhile, Formula 1 and (some) golfers are happy to sportswash those cuddly Saudis who, in shock news that will surprise no-one, have resumed executions at record pace.AlistairM said:
Really all the modern countries should have just boycotted the tournament.Sandpit said:
Because of course they do. Cowards.FrancisUrquhart said:England back down over Fifa arm band threat
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-cup/2022/11/21/qatar-protests-world-cup-2022-live-lgbt-england-arm-bands-updates/
I wonder what would have happened if the ref (Brazilian) refused to book players for wearing the armband?
Saudi Arabia has executed 12 people in 10 days for drug offences after a two-year hiatus, according to a human rights organisation.
The spate of executions - most of which are beheadings with a sword - is part of a wider trend that suggests the country is on track for a record year of executions despite Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman previously vowing to reduce the use of such punishments.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/11/20/saudi-arabia-beheads-people-sword-new-wave-executions/ (£££)
2 -
No wonder SNP trying to run a mile from this. Their claim the NHS/founding principles are under threat from the Tories has been a key argument for independence. Now it emerges their own NHS chiefs are discussing a "two-tier system where the people who can afford to" would pay…..
NHS Scotland bosses meeting minutes also suggest rift between them and SNP ministers, mentioning a "disconnect from the pressure that [regional NHS] boards are feeling and the message from SG [Scottish Government] that everything is still a priority and to be done within budget"
https://twitter.com/ChrisMusson/status/1594622093416620033
1 -
Another side effect of Boris Johnson - politics becoming seen as a branch of the entertainment industry.kinabalu said:Can I pls register an official complaint at the constant use of the phrase "boring competent government"? It's getting said so much - by people of all political shades - that the words "boring" and "competent" are starting to get fused as if they belong together. Implication being competence in government is inherently boring and therefore the sort of shambolic chicanery we had under Johnson, or the surreal nonsense of Truss, was in some way thrilling and set the pulse racing. Certainly speaking for myself this is not true. I can't tell you how bored I got of Boris Johnson's antics, and the Trussterfuck had me almost catatonic with despair. It really was hard to stay interested in what was going on. If Sunak - and after him Starmer with his nice big Lab majority - really can do competent government which serves the country well I'll be animated and - yes - amused by this. It'll be a right laugh.
2 -
Glad people in the NHS are talking about this. No politician would dare. Reality is though that we can not afford for everything to be free to everyone. There are more people (people living longer) and far more types of treatment than when the NHS was created. This is only going to get worse. A new way has to be found.CarlottaVance said:No wonder SNP trying to run a mile from this. Their claim the NHS/founding principles are under threat from the Tories has been a key argument for independence. Now it emerges their own NHS chiefs are discussing a "two-tier system where the people who can afford to" would pay…..
NHS Scotland bosses meeting minutes also suggest rift between them and SNP ministers, mentioning a "disconnect from the pressure that [regional NHS] boards are feeling and the message from SG [Scottish Government] that everything is still a priority and to be done within budget"
https://twitter.com/ChrisMusson/status/1594622093416620033
2 -
Unlike 1997 though there will be no golden economic legacy for Starmer and Reeves so the economy will then be their problemHeathener said:
Nothing because this is nothing like 1992.DavidL said:So what would make a 1992 possible?
.
Stop making a false comparison please. It's misleading.
The truth is that this is psepholoically like 1997 but economically FAR WORSE.
Conservatives on here need to prepare for the Dark Night of the Soul.0 -
...I know there has been a cloud of uncertainty hanging over the British economy in recent years. But that cloud is lifting: the form of Brexit is clear...CarlottaVance said:
It is very good, but it doesn’t look like he’s seen this:Nigelb said:FPT, and on topic, Nick posted this piece by Alastair.
That is one of his best articles.NickPalmer said:Good Meeks piece uncharacteristically suggesting sensible Leaver strategy:
https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/the-nightwatchman-e5345c4bf51f
And I'd have said it's not uncharacteristic of him to offer his opponents good advice.
https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/chancellor-rishi-sunaks-mais-lecture-2022
Ahem.0 -
A female Argentinian television reporter was robbed live on air while reporting in Qatar on the World Cup, with money and documents stolen from her handbag.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11451833/Female-TV-reporter-robbed-live-air-Qatar-World-Cup.html0 -
The mid to late 90s didn't feel politically much like this. Blair was straining at the leash for the final 2 years with Major looking more and more helpless and hopeless and patently hanging on in the hope of something turning up. Starmer and Sunak by contrast look virtually interchangeable. Tories will lose, sure, but because of 2023, not 1997. You condemn false comparisons, but not broadly enough.Heathener said:
Nothing because this is nothing like 1992.DavidL said:So what would make a 1992 possible?
.
Stop making a false comparison please. It's misleading.
The truth is that this is psepholoically like 1997 but economically FAR WORSE.
Conservatives on here need to prepare for the Dark Night of the Soul.
1 -
It's been interesting listening to all this.Sandpit said:
Because of course they do. Cowards.FrancisUrquhart said:England back down over Fifa arm band threat
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-cup/2022/11/21/qatar-protests-world-cup-2022-live-lgbt-england-arm-bands-updates/
We may all find FIFA self-serving and tasteless (fair enough), but the FIFA boss has a point on the hypocrisy of Western moral posturing, as if the West has always been morally superior. It hasn't.
In Ukraine the moral position the West has taken is good, and on various questions the West is (in our view) genuinely better than eg Arab countries.
On other questions we are perhaps not - eg attitudes to the elderly. And no, I'm not talking about the anti-pensioner prejudice which stalks PB, I'm more talking about what the atomisation of our society has done to the extended family, and what therefore happens to older people.
Listening to the context ignorant self-righteous declarations on Press Reviews yesterday, and from public figures, is embarrassing.
Declarations of the importance of international law, and how other countries must conform to our values, don't really stack up when we have recent history of invading other countries almost on a whim, imperial history, and certain countries failure to sign relevant UN convention to hold themselves to the same standard.
Still in many ways better, but pretending that we are whiter than white and can condemn others quite so sanctimoniously is risible.
IMO.1 -
PB took a lot of interest in September’s Swedish general election (although weirdly ignored the subsequent Danish one). Thought you might like a little update.
The new centre-right minority government is struggling, as I predicted. The Liberals and the C&S party the Sweden Democrats are already ripping out each other’s throats. The Liberals in particular are in full panic mode, having fallen below threshold.
Anyhoo, now the polls look worrying for the government. There was zilch honeymoon. Latest numbers (September GE in brackets):
Min centre-right govt coalition: 29% (nc)
Moderates 20% (+1)
Christian Democrats 5% (nc)
Liberals 4% (-1)
Anti-immigration C&S party:
Sweden Democrats 18% (-3)
Centre-left opposition: 52% (+3)
Social Democrats 33% (+3)
Left Party 8% (+1)
Centre Party 6% (-1)
Greens 5% (nc)
The big risk is that the Liberals walk off in a huff. I’d say that is a 50:50 risk within the first 12 months of the new government.
That the Turks are immensely enjoying gaslighting the Swedes and Finns over NATO membership is not helping.4 -
Also possibly as much about grid stabilisation when reacting to transient energy demands as one of capacity.Lennon said:
Whilst it might look like that - it looks like we've been running the coal power station to about 0.5GW for a portion of a day fairly regularly since the start of November - I am assuming that there is an element of 'checking it works regularly' comfortably in advance of the 5 days when we will actually need it properly at full tiltSandyRentool said:Off topic, just looking at Gridwatch this morning - we are running a coal-fired unit so that we can export the power to France.
Doesn't sound too green to me.0 -
Weren't Labour close to 60% in the polls several times in about 1995? And the Tories at about 24%.Heathener said:
This is nothing like 1987-1992 though. The opinion polls are completely different:DavidL said:1992 shows it is possible. A.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1992_United_Kingdom_general_election#1992
Time for y'all to pay attention to the polls. There is NO comeback from here for the tories. Forget it. Reset your minds.
The REAL question is just how much of a shellacking they are going to get. Just how big a majority will Labour get? That's the only remaining question at the next election.0 -
A few of these articles popping up.
Definitely a groundswell of sorts among Democrats to suggest that Biden think about not running. And ditto his VP.
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/11/joe-biden-age-birthday-wow-hes-old.html
...So what now? You have about a year to just coast—wearing cozy shirts in “candid” nighttime photos, acting as the affectionate grandpa to a party that is enjoying a shocking absence of internal turmoil, making foreign policy decisions of the sort that you can claim unequivocal credit for. But then you need to decide, like Nancy Pelosi just did, whether it is finally time to hand things over to your party’s youth movement, i.e. people who are only in their 50s..
If Biden Runs Again, He Should Pick a New VP
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/11/kamala-harris-joe-biden-new-vp-2024.html0 -
On footballers' gestures, I confess I'm really confused.
Can somebody help me to understand the difference between Woke virtue-signalling by spoilt multi-millionaires, and essential gestures that show solidarity with the oppressed?5
