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A LAB majority back as general election favourite – politicalbetting.com

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  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970

    Test

    Hahahaa

    Old but gold
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063

    That book should be on the national curriculum.
    “I’m bought and sold, aren’t I?” said Vimes, shaking his head. “Bought and sold.”
    “Not at all,” said Vetinari.

    “Yes, I am. We all are. Even Rust. And all those poor buggers who went off to get slaughtered. We’re not part of the big picture, right? We’re just bought and sold.”

    Vetinari was suddenly in front of Vimes, his chair hitting the floor behind his desk.

    “Really? Men marched away, Vimes. And men marched back. How glorious the battles would have been that they never had to fight!”

    He hesitated, and then shrugged.

    “And you say bought and sold? All right. But not, I think, needlessly spent.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    kle4 said:

    Alternatively, people can react to breaking news

    and not be required to be experts in international military relations, and thus risk making fools of

    themselves with either over or under reaction.
    When you have got ‘JosiasJessop’ - The Man on the Internet - pontificating about military strategy, it’s time to go elsewhere for a few hours.

  • We went to war for Poland in 1939 we should do so again today.

    Aggressors must not succeed.

    Appeasement is treason.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,355

    Test

    Match special.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    kle4 said:

    When you regard asserting a right to exist with arrogant provocation that makes total sense. To a lunatic.

    Although,

    Markov claims that Poland’s Russophobia prevented the Soviet Army from exerting full control and gave Nazi Germany an opening to invade Poland


    Well, it's only slightly more ridiculous than some other claims of Russophobia I've seen.
    Where do you think the Ukraine/Republic of China border should be?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,355
    Leon said:

    Somewhere out there is a lonely PB-er in a turf rooted house trying to work out how nuclear annihilation is ‘a positive for the cause of Scottish independence’
    I thought he lived in Bath?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,786
    No push notifications yet on WWIII.

    Hmmm. Possible NATO/Ukraine mistake? Presume every spook in the world is trying to work out what happened.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970

    We went to war for Poland in 1939 we should do so again today.

    Aggressors must not succeed.

    Appeasement is treason.

    You’re keen. Can we volunteer you to parachute in first?

    I’m happy to do intel from Tierra del Fuego
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063

    When you have got ‘JosiasJessop’ - The Man on the Internet - pontificating about military strategy, it’s time to go elsewhere for a few hours.

    We're all people on the internet. No one has the experience to weigh in on these global situations, not even those who have served some time in the military, unless every grunt in the army is an expert on geo-politics or is the reincarnation of Bismark.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,867
    Leon said:

    You’re keen. Can we volunteer you to parachute in first?

    I’m happy to do intel from Tierra del Fuego
    There's a certain irony that you've volunteered to go the Land of Fire to escape a nuclear war.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,288
    ydoethur said:

    The people who cottoned on quickest.
    A well tailored response.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,953
    edited November 2022
    rcs1000 said:

    By the way, who won in Threads?
    The traffic warden got a fairly significant promotion (and a gun)
    The rat seller seemed to do alright

    By and large though, it looks like a strange game where the only winning move is not to play.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    ydoethur said:

    You know, if we want to stop this war the key thing is to find the sabotage where somebody has put LSD in the vodka supplied to the Kremlin.

    I mean, a joke's a joke but this is going waaaaaay too far now.
    There is a strange tendency in history for the madly bellicose to project (at least in diplomacy) onto others.

    Consider WWI. France *retreated* from their frontier to their fortified lines inside France. Germany attacked through neutral Belgium. the Germans claimed that it was a wicked plot by the French and Belgians to destroy Germany. By not attacking Germany.
  • Eabhal said:

    No push notifications yet on WWIII.

    Hmmm. Possible NATO/Ukraine mistake? Presume every spook in the world is trying to work out what happened.

    Would it unduly complicate matters if it turned out the missile that hit Poland was launched from Belarus?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,888

    FFS. Spare us the PB Toy Soldiers.
    Better a 'toy soldier' than a post Nazi such as yourself, with your pathetic little list. ;)
  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 792
    Leon said:

    If this is a mistake, and if Russia can convince NATO it is a mistake, it will suit everyone to pretend it didn’t happen

    Big ifs, tho
    Not everyone. It will suit those who want WW3 for that not to happen, and also for there to be other events, pebbles in the pond, stones on the go board.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    kle4 said:

    We're all people on the internet. No one has the experience to weigh in on these global situations, not even those who have served some time in the military, unless every grunt in the army is an expert on geo-politics or is the reincarnation of Bismark.
    In any case, its no different to the range of baloney offered on every other subject from politics to bake off
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,288

    Match special.
    Careful.
    You might inadvertently be completing a code sequence.

    And we all know how that ends.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Nigelb said:

    A well tailored response.
    And sew it begins
  • Alaska Public Media - Officials to update Alaska election results on Tuesday

    Alaska election officials plan to publish another update to the state’s unofficial election results late Tuesday afternoon.

    Last Thursday, they finished tallying first place votes from regular ballots cast in person on Election Day. The 217,835 ballots counted so far also include some early vote and absentee ballots.

    That represents about 36% of all registered voters. Turnout in the last midterm election in 2018 was about 50%.

    The Alaska Division of Elections has tens of thousands of ballots waiting to be counted, with potentially thousands more on their way in the mail. Most absentee ballots sent by mail are valid if they were postmarked by Election Day and received by Nov. 18. Absentee ballots coming from overseas have until Nov. 23 to arrive.

    Nov. 23 is also the date of the ranked choice tabulation process, which should settle races where no candidate has a majority of first place votes. That includes Alaska’s U.S. House and U.S. Senate races. In the Senate race, Republican Kelly Tshibaka leads incumbent Republican Lisa Murkowski by 2,933 first-pick votes.

    In the House, incumbent Democrat Mary Peltola is a few percentage points short of winning outright with a majority. Republicans Sarah Palin and Nick Begich split about half of the overall first-pick votes.

    In the governor’s race, Republican incumbent Mike Dunleavy has about 52% of the vote so far. If that holds, he’ll win outright.

    State officials are aiming to certify the election results on Nov. 29.
  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 792
    edited November 2022
    Nigelb said:

    The Russian missile screw-up that ended up killing two Poles will result in NATO invoking article 4 not article 5 (see below). The consultation will probably result in more support for Ukraine, particularly air and anti-air power. Will give Poland some real influence.
    https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1592598256512798720
    It's not NATO that invokes A5. Poland and every other member state can invoke A5 whenever they want. Poland already has some influence. Of course they have to be sure they're going to be believed if they say they've been attacked.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,786
    Eabhal said:

    No push notifications yet on WWIII.

    Hmmm. Possible NATO/Ukraine mistake? Presume every spook in the world is trying to work out what happened.

    Option 1) US/UK etc move a few more battalions to Poland/Estonia
    Option 2) Guarantee security for everything west of the Kyiv/Odesa line
    Option 3) Block all Russian merchant vessels, or any bound to Russia, from going through the Channel?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    You what?

    Lauren Boebert has taken aim at Nancy Pelosi and called for the House Speaker’s ousting while her own future in politics continues to hang in the balance.

    “Waiting this long for election results is going to make firing Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House that much sweeter,” she wroteon Twitter on Monday.

    Republicans are just one seat away from control of the House of Representatives, with the balance of power potentially hinging on th eoutcome of Ms Boebert’s race among serveral others that have not yet been decided.

    Ms Boebert’s race is still too close to call and it is unlikely that the outcome will be known until the end of the week – at the soonest.


    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/lauren-boebert-live-republican-under-fire-for-embarrassing-tweet-as-she-leads-race-by-just-1-200-votes/ar-AA147fQU?rc=1&ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=4fa8081e46a04671886f20ff8538f010
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,288
    Bloody Russians, this means yet another number one challenge.

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1592581972165267456
    Sunak to GB News: “Right now, our number one challenge is getting a grip on the number of illegal migrants coming, that's the thing I want to focus on first."

    Sunak to BBC: "The number one challenge we face is inflation."

    Which is it?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347
    Again Putin fails to avoid a clash between WW3 and Bake Off.
  • My working assumption is that this is Russia willy-waving for domestic consumption to cover the humiliation of it losing Kherson.

    Or it might just be a screw up.

    Still requires a response though.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,471
    Nigelb said:

    The Russian missile screw-up that ended up killing two Poles will result in NATO invoking article 4 not article 5 (see below). The consultation will probably result in more support for Ukraine, particularly air and anti-air power. Will give Poland some real influence.
    https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1592598256512798720
    Indeed I think the retaliation has already happened, deep within the synapses of NATO member governments.

    Putin’s last hope for a positive ending in
    Ukraine is for Western resolve to waver, either through boredom (Ukraine fatigue), economic pain (gas supplies) or division (Republic red wave in the mid terms).

    Last week put paid to the red wave. A rapid European transition to LNG, reduced demand and warm windy weather have blunted the economic blackmail. These missiles just ensured we don’t get bored anytime soon.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,355
    Nigelb said:

    Careful.
    You might inadvertently be completing a code sequence.

    And we all know how that ends.
    Nah, I avoided the capital S.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,203
    kinabalu said:

    Again Putin fails to avoid a clash between WW3 and Bake Off.

    It's the battle of soggy bottom.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,221
    edited November 2022
    Leon said:

    You’re keen. Can we volunteer you to parachute in first?

    I’m happy to do intel from Tierra del Fuego
    We can ignore appeasers like you.

    Your next identity on PB should be Lord Halifax.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    Nigelb said:

    Bloody Russians, this means yet another number one challenge.

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1592581972165267456
    Sunak to GB News: “Right now, our number one challenge is getting a grip on the number of illegal migrants coming, that's the thing I want to focus on first."

    Sunak to BBC: "The number one challenge we face is inflation."

    Which is it?

    Who is next?

    Sunak to Daily Mail: The number one challenge is house prices. And stories about Princess Diana.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,926

    My working assumption is that this is Russia willy-waving for domestic consumption to cover the humiliation of it losing Kherson.

    Or it might just be a screw up.

    Still requires a response though.

    All the news channels are adamant that it's a mistake.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    Eabhal said:


    Option 1) US/UK etc move a few more battalions to Poland/Estonia
    Option 2) Guarantee security for everything west of the Kyiv/Odesa line
    Option 3) Block all Russian merchant vessels, or any bound to Russia, from going through the Channel?
    3 is not an option. International rights of passage.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792


    Better a 'toy soldier' than a post Nazi such as

    yourself, with your pathetic little list. ;)

    As you have said ‘passim’.

  • Andy_JS said:

    All the news channels are adamant that it's a mistake.
    Yes, and it still requires a response.

    That doesn't mean we fire missiles back. It means we demand an explanation, deploy more defences, tighten the screws on Russia further, make them cringe etc.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,867
    Nigelb said:

    Bloody Russians, this means yet another number one challenge.

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1592581972165267456
    Sunak to GB News: “Right now, our number one challenge is getting a grip on the number of illegal migrants coming, that's the thing I want to focus on first."

    Sunak to BBC: "The number one challenge we face is inflation."

    Which is it?

    Any challenge involving Braverman is clearly a number 2 challenge.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063

    Where do you think the Ukraine/Republic of China border should be?
    Far away from me.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,786
    Carnyx said:

    3 is not an option. International rights of passage.
    Launching cruise missiles at people isn't entirely above board either.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,970

    We can ignore appeasers like you.

    Your next identity on PB should be Lord Halifax.

    I’ve got my trusty Armageddon Shot Glass ready to salute your bravery



  • 3% pa property tax very high
    Why is that high? Only if you're owning land you're not living in, you always have the option to actually live in the land, or sell it to someone else if you don't fancy paying the tax.

    Or use the land productively in a way that earns that much as a return.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792
    Bake Off has a lot to answer for: now all these competitive reality shows follow the same format. I was looking forward to Handmade: Britain’s Best Woodworker. I like woodwork.

    But, it’s crap. Instead of focusing on the techniques, it’s the same lady (I think?) from Bake Off, with the same innuendos and the same turgid life stories.

    I had just about to get through the series with judicious use of the fast forward button, but there is still far too much inane bantz.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504

    Yes, and it still requires a response.

    That doesn't mean we fire missiles back. It means we demand an explanation, deploy more defences, tighten the screws on Russia further, make them cringe etc.

    Yes, and it still requires a response.

    That doesn't mean we fire missiles back. It means we demand an explanation, deploy more defences, tighten the screws on Russia further, make them cringe etc.
    If it is a Russian missile, then my guess is that the response will be something on the lines of extending the Polish air defence zone into Ukraine.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,888

    As you have said ‘passim’.
    I don't think I've ever said that before. Still, it's good to know that you're allowed to use words on the verboten list...
  • Eabhal said:

    Launching cruise missiles at people isn't entirely above board either.
    Depends on height of cruise ship?

    Starboard
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    kle4 said:

    Far away from me.
    Well, it would be. Unless you live in Taiwan, of course..
  • @kinabalu I am pleased but in no position to crow about it.

    Roughly, I lost £300 on the Senate and made £400 on the House, so up £100 overall. It would be higher but I traded out in the small hours this morning as I got an overdrawn warning from my bank!

    My analysis of the House was greatly aided by @rcs1000 and @Sean_F with a bit too from @Alasdair @kinabalu and @Barnesian on specific races.

    Only bit I can take some credit for is that the price of 1.2 stuck around for far too long (it even went to 1.24 on a couple of occasions) when it was clear the Republicans were going to get at least 218 seats, and there was 2/1 available on them getting 220-229 seats (a big price that @Barnesian also spotted)

    That's what got me out of the hole I'd dug for myself. Far from my finest hour.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    I don't mean to quibble, but Truss's rise at least wasn't really unexpected or out of the blue, she was one of the favourites and the holder of a Great Office of State for crying out loud.

    https://twitter.com/JAHeale/status/1592493675992731648?cxt=HHwWgMDSifOj1pksAAAA
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,100
    kle4 said:

    You what?

    Lauren Boebert has taken aim at Nancy Pelosi and called for the House Speaker’s ousting while her own future in politics continues to hang in the balance.

    “Waiting this long for election results is going to make firing Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House that much sweeter,” she wroteon Twitter on Monday.

    Republicans are just one seat away from control of the House of Representatives, with the balance of power potentially hinging on th eoutcome of Ms Boebert’s race among serveral others that have not yet been decided.

    Ms Boebert’s race is still too close to call and it is unlikely that the outcome will be known until the end of the week – at the soonest.


    https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/lauren-boebert-live-republican-under-fire-for-embarrassing-tweet-as-she-leads-race-by-just-1-200-votes/ar-AA147fQU?rc=1&ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=4fa8081e46a04671886f20ff8538f010

    I thought Boebert's seat had been called?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    I don't think I've ever said that before. Still, it's

    good to know that you're allowed to use words on the verboten list...
    IANAM

  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,355
    Nigelb said:

    Careful.
    You might inadvertently be completing a code sequence.

    And we all know how that ends.
    Nah, I avoided the capital S.
    Leon said:




    I’ve got my trusty Armageddon Shot Glass ready to salute your bravery



    No Nazi pictures on the desktop today?
  • Yes, and it still requires a response.

    That doesn't mean we fire missiles back. It means we demand an explanation, deploy more defences, tighten the screws on Russia further, make them cringe etc.
    We accidentally bombed the Chinese embassy in 1999.

    China understood it was a mistake.

    Putin needs to reassure us it was a mistake.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,355

    Bake Off has a lot to answer for: now all these competitive reality shows follow the same format. I was looking forward to Handmade: Britain’s Best Woodworker. I like woodwork.

    But, it’s crap. Instead of focusing on the techniques, it’s the same lady (I think?) from Bake Off, with the same innuendos and the same turgid life stories.

    I had just about to get through the series with judicious use of the fast forward button, but there is still far too much inane bantz.

    I’ll be honest I rather enjoyed ‘wood off’ as it’s known at Tubbs Towers. Yes the format is essentially the same, but the woodworkers did some genuinely impressive work. They even managed to make sure the lesbian won, albeit she was the best woodworker too.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,888

    IANAM

    I fear you might be wrong and that you are, in fact, a meringue.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 9,786
    Boom (figurative) - BBC push notification on Polish response.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3BO6GP9NMY

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CJpQk6YAw1s
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063

    I thought Boebert's seat had been called?
    Hence my surprise. I thought it was something like 99% reported, can't see a recount overturning 1000+ votes.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited November 2022
    kle4 said:

    Hence my surprise. I thought it was something like 99% reported, can't see a recount overturning 1000+ votes.
    Dems claim there are a large number of cured ballots favouring them still to count/add
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347

    Bake Off has a lot to answer for: now all these competitive reality shows follow the same format. I was looking forward to Handmade: Britain’s Best Woodworker. I like woodwork.

    But, it’s crap. Instead of focusing on the techniques, it’s the same lady (I think?) from Bake Off, with the same innuendos and the same turgid life stories.

    I had just about to get through the series with judicious use of the fast forward button, but there is still far too much inane bantz.

    Yes in TV a successful format gets copied to the point of tedium.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,364
    ydoethur said:

    The people who cottoned on quickest.
    I thought it was usually @TheScreamingEagles

    But only because he cheats…

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504

    Test

    Set CRM-114 Discriminator to O-P-E

    Initiate Attack Plan R for Ripper

    ENDS
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724

    We accidentally bombed the Chinese embassy in 1999.

    China understood it was a mistake.

    Putin needs to reassure us it was a mistake.
    There is also a massive contextual difference. Not just the nature of the conflict (we weren’t the aggressor) but also in that the Chinese embassy was actually inside Serbia. Poland it not inside Ukraine, and Russia is the invader.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    I’ll be honest I rather enjoyed ‘wood off’ as it’s known at Tubbs Towers. Yes the format is essentially the same, but the woodworkers did some genuinely impressive work. They even managed to make sure the lesbian won, albeit she was the best woodworker too.

    Spoiler as I’m still on the semifinal! not that I really care.

    I think the fact that the work is so good just underlines my point: a wasted opportunity to convey the skills and techniques to viewers in favour of cliched bantz and a tired format.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    If this title is right I must be a goddamned genius

    Why indecision makes you smarter

    https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20221111-why-indecision-makes-you-smarter


    Smart of the article to sucker me in with references to The Good Place though.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,867

    I thought it was usually @TheScreamingEagles

    But only because he cheats…

    It might of course be SeanT, who is a leading proponent (exponent?) of e pluribus unum.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    kle4 said:

    If this title is right I must be a goddamned genius

    Why indecision makes you smarter

    https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20221111-why-indecision-makes-you-smarter


    Smart of the article to sucker me in with references to The Good Place though.

    Ask not the Elves for advice since they will say both yes and no.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    Andy_JS said:

    People forget that the top rate of tax was 60% until 10 years into Thatcher's time in number 10, and the top rate of tax was 40% for about 99.5% of Blair and Brown's time in Downing Street.
    Looking with perspective now on Thatcher’s Premiership set into everything around it and what we have today, she was really quite left wing. A recession with households squeezed, energy companies and banks doing well, she windfall taxed them, waving away their bleating about how unfair it was and would hurt investment with the argument if our households are squeezed, those doing very well can afford to help out, we are all in this together. That is a winning Conservative Party. The current polling mess and Starmergasm was Truss saying no, I will not do a windfall tax, I will defer tax rises so working households pay back the borrowing with tax and higher bills into the future instead.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,100

    Dems claim there are a large number of cured ballots favouring them still to count/add
    Well it would be funny to see yet another election-denier lose against the trend.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,773
    edited November 2022
    kle4 said:

    If this title is right I must be a goddamned genius

    Why indecision makes you smarter

    https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20221111-why-indecision-makes-you-smarter


    Smart of the article to sucker me in with references to The Good Place though.

    I used to be indecisive but I'm not so sure about that these days. Must be getting smarter.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,867

    Ask not the Elves for advice since they will say both yes and no.
    Actually it was 'go not to the Elves for counsel, as they will say both no and yes.'
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724
    kle4 said:

    If this title is right I must be a goddamned genius

    Why indecision makes you smarter

    https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20221111-why-indecision-makes-you-smarter


    Smart of the article to sucker me in with references to The Good Place though.

    Can’t decide whether or not to read it.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    edited November 2022
    nova said:

    I was replying to your post that said, "I think that may just be a statistical blip that can disappear with more polls".

    It's not a statistical blip, and it won't "disappear into a smooth upward one".

    Whether the honeymoon is over is a different question :)
    The way the graph works, yes it can change shape at the live end day by day, depending on input.

    The downward blip can disappear into a smooth upward one.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,867
    edited November 2022
    biggles said:

    Can’t decide whether or not to read it.
    That's the smart move.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,364

    Better a 'toy soldier' than a post Nazi such as yourself, with your pathetic little list. ;)
    A wink emoji doesn’t ameliorate rudeness
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    ydoethur said:

    Actually it was 'go not to the Elves for counsel, as they will say both no and yes.'
    I don't think the response really refuted it either, a very politician's response. Basically a convoluted way of saying 'shit if I know what to do'.

    'Is it indeed?' laughed Gildor. 'Elves seldom give unguarded advice, for advice is a dangerous gift, even from the wise to the wise, and all courses may run ill.”
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    ydoethur said:

    Actually it was 'go not to the Elves for counsel, as they will say both no and yes.'
    Naughty Elves.

    Way before my time obviously, but is it true they had big ears?

    Until Noddy paid the ransom 😆

    I’m here all week.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,867

    Naughty Elves.

    Way before my time obviously, but is it true they had big ears?

    Until Noddy paid the ransom 😆

    I’m here all week.
    Do you have four more like that? If so, they could be the Famous Five,

    But if they're all like that, I hope that you have six of them and they remain the Secret Seven.
  • novanova Posts: 737

    The way the graph works, yes it can change shape at the live end.
    With those polls I'm pretty sure it can't move to a smooth upward curve. That levelling off bump - let's call it Gavin Williamson peak - will still be there, even if Rishi's mountain is ultimately a lot higher.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,347

    @kinabalu I am pleased but in no position to crow about it.

    Roughly, I lost £300 on the Senate and made £400 on the House, so up £100 overall. It would be higher but I traded out in the small hours this morning as I got an overdrawn warning from my bank!

    My analysis of the House was greatly aided by @rcs1000 and @Sean_F with a bit too from @Alasdair @kinabalu and @Barnesian on specific races.

    Only bit I can take some credit for is that the price of 1.2 stuck around for far too long (it even went to 1.24 on a couple of occasions) when it was clear the Republicans were going to get at least 218 seats, and there was 2/1 available on them getting 220-229 seats (a big price that @Barnesian also spotted)

    That's what got me out of the hole I'd dug for myself. Far from my finest hour.

    Hairy journey, safe landing. Yep there was some good betting punditry on here from some of the involved PBers inc those you mention.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    kle4 said:

    I don't mean to quibble, but Truss's rise at least wasn't really unexpected or out of the blue, she was one of the favourites and the holder of a Great Office of State for crying out loud.

    https://twitter.com/JAHeale/status/1592493675992731648?cxt=HHwWgMDSifOj1pksAAAA

    The Story of Oh.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792



    A wink emoji doesn’t ameliorate rudeness

    He told me to “fuck off” yesterday, which was rude, but refreshingly cliche-free plain English at least.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,364

    Why is that high? Only if you're owning land you're not living in, you always have the option to actually live in the land, or sell it to someone else if you don't fancy paying the tax.

    Or use the land productively in a way that earns that much as a return.
    If you are thinking about it as land (not building) value then that’s complicated but not as bad.

    Average house price of £300k becomes basically a wash with council tax for a primary residence (300x0.03) = £9k x 20% = £1.8k vs £1.5k for average council tax.

    So effectively it’s just a complicated tax on second homes which are already taxed.

    Better to have a simple clear rate without discounts
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,773
    ydoethur said:

    Actually it was 'go not to the Elves for counsel, as they will say both no and yes.'
    You're not narrowing down which of our posters might be elves with that though.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    nova said:

    With those polls I'm pretty sure it can't move to a smooth upward curve. That levelling off bump - let's call it Gavin Williamson peak - will still be there, even if Rishi's mountain is ultimately a lot higher.
    Gavins Peak? 😆

    One year in, and I’m embroiled in a proper PB argument. Because I’m still convinced three thirty fives tomorrow, and drawing straightest line through the last 8 goes straight up.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,888

    A wink emoji doesn’t ameliorate rudeness
    I was being purposefully rude; the emoji was there to show that I am being rude with a little playfulness, rather than in anger.

    But @Anabobazina 's posts in reply to mine below seemed a little rude in themselves. And his little list of forbidden words and phrases is a little fascistic.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,867
    DavidL said:

    You're not narrowing down which of our posters might be elves with that though.
    Does my Silvan tongue not convince you?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,364


    He told me to “fuck off” yesterday, which was rude, but refreshingly cliche-free plain English at least.
    Grudges are a waste of energy
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,888


    He told me to “fuck off” yesterday, which was rude, but refreshingly cliche-free plain English at least.
    You may want to consider why I said that to you. And it seems a shame that you did not take the well-meant advice. ;)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504
    kle4 said:

    I don't think the response really refuted it either, a very politician's response. Basically a convoluted way of saying 'shit if I know what to do'.

    'Is it indeed?' laughed Gildor. 'Elves seldom give unguarded advice, for advice is a dangerous gift, even from the wise to the wise, and all courses may run ill.”
    After the first 20,000 years of trying various choices, caution with advice is probably the sensible response.

    Should I make some rings out of that nice shiny metal? Asking for a gift giving friend.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 9,364
    Talking of waste of energy has anyone commented on Russia blowing up the power lines supplying Moldova?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968

    The Story of Oh.
    Wait till Leon see’s those earrings
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,504

    Gavins Peak? 😆

    One year in, and I’m embroiled in a proper PB argument. Because I’m still convinced three thirty fives tomorrow, and drawing straightest line through the last 8 goes straight up.
    That’s not an argument. It’s just a contradiction.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,792

    I was being purposefully rude; the emoji was there to show that I am being rude with a little playfulness, rather than in anger.

    But @Anabobazina 's posts in reply to mine


    below seemed a little rude in themselves. And his little list of forbidden words and phrases is a little fascistic.

    Unless there is a rule change of which I’m unaware, they aren’t forbidden. They are, however, cliches
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968

    That’s not an argument. It’s just a contradiction.
    Only one year in and embroiled in a proper PB contradiction.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061


    Unless there is a rule change of which I’m unaware, they aren’t forbidden. They are, however, cliches
    And we must avoid cliches like the plague
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,288
    https://twitter.com/sb_moller/status/1592608522533228544
    Poland (and other Eastern European NATO members) invoked Art 4 last February following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

    It's hard to see how they don't do so now that they've reportedly suffered casualties from the conflict next door…
    … As a reminder: the one time NATO actually invoked Art 5 (after 9/11) it took almost a month to do so.


    “Triggered” is not an accurate characterisation.
    All this stuff is pretty slow and deliberative. Intentionally so.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,867


    Unless there is a rule change of which I’m unaware, they aren’t forbidden. They are, however, cliches
    Well, let us talk in clichés until the cows come home.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,100

    If you are thinking about it as land (not building) value then that’s complicated but not as bad.

    Average house price of £300k becomes basically a wash with council tax for a primary residence (300x0.03) = £9k x 20% = £1.8k vs £1.5k for average council tax.

    So effectively it’s just a complicated tax on second homes which are already taxed.

    Better to have a simple clear rate without discounts
    Might get those developers' land banks built on though.
  • novanova Posts: 737

    Gavins Peak? 😆

    One year in, and I’m embroiled in a proper PB argument. Because I’m still convinced three thirty fives tomorrow, and drawing straightest line through the last 8 goes straight up.
    I've just tried it with a loess macro in Excel and I can't get rid of Gavin's peak without adding some crazy figures.

    Even Kwasi couldn't help, and believe me he was keen to see any sign of Gavin disappear.
This discussion has been closed.