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Will the Tories ever get over the Kwasi Budget? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,615
edited November 2022 in General
imageWill the Tories ever get over the Kwasi Budget? – politicalbetting.com

One of the most stunning figures to have emerged in the past few days is that the effort to save sterling in the aftermath of the September budget could have cost the UK pensions industry up to £75 billion.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,760
    On the header -> have people actually had their pensions directly reduced over this? I didn't realize that.

    I assumed any costs are just going to be passed onto future pensioners.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,565
    edited November 2022
    Yes (but it will take some time)

    ETA: If Lab know what they're doing, they'll nail all the current woes on the Tories and the Truss episode, just as Osborne et al nailed the GFC on them. In neither case entirely fair, but effective.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,565
    Selebian said:

    Yes (but it will take some time)

    ETA: If Lab know what they're doing, they'll nail all the current woes on the Tories and the Truss episode, just as Osborne et al nailed the GFC on them. In neither case entirely fair, but effective.

    They can rework one of those Stonewall buses: "Some budgets are disastrous. Get over it!" :wink:
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Looking at Mike's link it does seem a lot of this would have been avoided but for overly clever LDI schemes.

    Then again a pension fund which eschewed them in favour of a boring 50/50 bond/equity setup would be looking pretty sick at the moment too.

    All above my pay grade
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Selebian said:

    Yes (but it will take some time)

    ETA: If Lab know what they're doing, they'll nail all the current woes on the Tories and the Truss episode, just as Osborne et al nailed the GFC on them. In neither case entirely fair, but effective.

    The "let's talk about your immediate predecessor" card is not a great one for sks.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,809
    Is it a good idea for the left to weaponise the market response to a budget? Because it means if they propose a budget in the future and the markets don't like it they won't be able to complain about it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,002
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Selebian said:

    Yes (but it will take some time)

    ETA: If Lab know what they're doing, they'll nail all the current woes on the Tories and the Truss episode, just as Osborne et al nailed the GFC on them. In neither case entirely fair, but effective.

    The "let's talk about your immediate predecessor" card is not a great one for sks.
    About that...
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/nov/14/jeremy-corbyn-will-never-stand-for-labour-again-say-senior-figures
  • kjhkjh Posts: 13,012
    edited November 2022
    rkrkrk said:

    On the header -> have people actually had their pensions directly reduced over this? I didn't realize that.

    I assumed any costs are just going to be passed onto future pensioners.

    ......
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,927
    Re the prior thread, there should be a compound German noun for “the crazy mental contortions we go through to justify actions by our guys, when we would find the same actions inexcusable in our enemy”

    The Hunter Biden/FBI/Twitter story is a classic example. People tying themselves in reef knots rather than admit this stinks, just as it would stink if it was the Trump family

    That said, we are ALL capable of doing this, and it happens all the time. And it occurs in every field of human endeavour. Sports as much as politics, for instance
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,002
    A Ukraine laptop story that matters.

    This is just the start of our campaign to secure 700 laptops for Ukrainian orphan foster families that we (http://sunfloweracademy.org.ua) support.

    Many orphan foster families (typical 4-10 kids in each) are displaced and they can only attend school online.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/AppleHelix/status/1592123592103563265
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,763
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Selebian said:

    Yes (but it will take some time)

    ETA: If Lab know what they're doing, they'll nail all the current woes on the Tories and the Truss episode, just as Osborne et al nailed the GFC on them. In neither case entirely fair, but effective.

    The "let's talk about your immediate predecessor" card is not a great one for sks.
    But nor, now, for Sunak.

    The Tories have nullified their greatest attack line (how can you ever be sure that lot won't put someone like that in charge again?)

    I say this as someone who was moderately sympathetic to Truss's aims. I thought she had identified the biggest problem for the UK right now (we are just not making enough money) and also had the right broad approach to addressing it (focus on growth). But oh, the utter reality-denying cackhanded unprofessional uselessness!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,432
    Probably not and the Hunt tax hikes and spending cuts resolution to the resulting Kwarteng and Covid furlough deficit is not exactly going to win over many new Tory voters before the next general election. The pensions issue is also damaging.

    However if Labour wins the next general election sorting out the economy will then be Starmer and Reeves' problem



  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,809
    Surely this only affects defined benefit schemes - if they make a loss it makes no difference to pensioners unless the scheme goes bust and has to be bailed out by Pension Protection Fund.

    The only affect is that the company may have to make higher contributions to fund the deficit.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,478
    Ask not for whom the KLAXON sounds...

    He had full confidence in Gavin Williamson as well, and we know how that ended.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/rishi-sunak-has-full-confidence-in-dominic-raab-despite-bullying-claims-says-no10_uk_63722478e4b09c4db178774b
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,756
    Andy_JS said:

    Is it a good idea for the left to weaponise the market response to a budget? Because it means if they propose a budget in the future and the markets don't like it they won't be able to complain about it.

    In the short term, sure. If your opponent gives you rope, go for it.

    You can worry about the rest when you’re in power and have decisions of your own to make.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,002
    Cookie said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Selebian said:

    Yes (but it will take some time)

    ETA: If Lab know what they're doing, they'll nail all the current woes on the Tories and the Truss episode, just as Osborne et al nailed the GFC on them. In neither case entirely fair, but effective.

    The "let's talk about your immediate predecessor" card is not a great one for sks.
    But nor, now, for Sunak.

    The Tories have nullified their greatest attack line (how can you ever be sure that lot won't put someone like that in charge again?)

    I say this as someone who was moderately sympathetic to Truss's aims. I thought she had identified the biggest problem for the UK right now (we are just not making enough money) and also had the right broad approach to addressing it (focus on growth). But oh, the utter reality-denying cackhanded unprofessional uselessness!
    She not only failed, but also made it impossible for anyone else to follow such a growth strategy, whether well planned or not, for the foreseeable future.

  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,754
    Selebian said:

    Yes (but it will take some time)

    ETA: If Lab know what they're doing, they'll nail all the current woes on the Tories and the Truss episode, just as Osborne et al nailed the GFC on them. In neither case entirely fair, but effective.

    Labour didn't help themselves - Liam Byrne's stupid comic note in the treasury for one.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,168
    On topic, nope, not for a while.

    After Black Wednesday the Tories led in just one poll between September 1993 and August 2000.

    That's how bad the Special Fiscal Operation was.

    I am using this in thread headers


  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,719
    Andy_JS said:

    Is it a good idea for the left to weaponise the market response to a budget? Because it means if they propose a budget in the future and the markets don't like it they won't be able to complain about it.

    It's not much good complaining about the market response - if you need to borrow from it your options are either to keep on good terms with it, or large-scale asset seizures to pay the bills instead.

    I presume the intention of Labour at the moment is to go down the good terms route, rather than asset seizures, or paying off debt so we don't have to care what the market thinks.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,478
    NEW: Simon McDonald, Foreign Office perm sec when Dominic Raab was in charge, tells @andrewmarr9 he was “a tough boss”.

    "Do you think the characterisation of him as somebody who could bully, and around whom bullying happened, is a plausible one?" he is asked

    “Yes," he replies.

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1592136625244766208
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,168
    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Simon McDonald, Foreign Office perm sec when Dominic Raab was in charge, tells @andrewmarr9 he was “a tough boss”.

    "Do you think the characterisation of him as somebody who could bully, and around whom bullying happened, is a plausible one?" he is asked

    “Yes," he replies.

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1592136625244766208

    Sir Simon's intervention in the Pincher scandal is what helped bring down Boris Johnson, Rishi, be bloody afraid of somebody who read history at Cambridge.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,004
    Bit my lip whilst eating cheese. Drawn blood. Bloody canines.

    Ow.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,168
    So when do we expect Lavrov to fall out of a window?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,478
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Simon McDonald, Foreign Office perm sec when Dominic Raab was in charge, tells @andrewmarr9 he was “a tough boss”.

    "Do you think the characterisation of him as somebody who could bully, and around whom bullying happened, is a plausible one?" he is asked

    “Yes," he replies.

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1592136625244766208

    Sir Simon's intervention in the Pincher scandal is what helped bring down Boris Johnson, Rishi, be bloody afraid of somebody who read history at Cambridge.
    We think it’s 27 people in the SoS private office and 20 filled out survey- so of them 8 had experienced bullying or harassmment and 15 witnessed it,

    https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1592137336841973761
    https://twitter.com/dissident_the/status/1592133748954652672
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,756
    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Simon McDonald, Foreign Office perm sec when Dominic Raab was in charge, tells @andrewmarr9 he was “a tough boss”.

    "Do you think the characterisation of him as somebody who could bully, and around whom bullying happened, is a plausible one?" he is asked

    “Yes," he replies.

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1592136625244766208

    I dislike this sort of briefing. If people have complaints to make about his behaviour they should submit a formal complaint. Otherwise it’s just gossip and conjecture which also isn’t particularly fair on the subject.

    (Note I would say this in respect of anyone. It doesn’t come out of any kind of fondness towards Raab).
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,075
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I'm very sceptical of the quoted £75 bn. The LDI issue was a serious one, but it was one of liquidity, not long-term asset value. Short-term variations in gilt rates can make pension-fund assets suddenly worth less in 'mark to market' valuation, but the nominal value of the liabilities also changes in the opposite direction.

    So whilst the Kwarteng budget was undoubtedly spectacularly stupid, and whilst the UK will continue to have to pay a 'moron's premium' for a while, I don't think the effects are going to be long-lasting in pension-fund timescales. The damage is nothing like as bad as the effect of Brexit, which of course will continue to damage the economy in the long term

    The evidence of a "moron's premium" is already quite thin with gilt rates being almost exactly where they were when the wheels came off. The premium would, I accept, be higher if either KK or Truss were still in office.

    As I have pointed out before, for final salary schemes the international increase in gilt rates has been a godsend with pension liabilities falling faster than the underlying assets improving solvency. We are having a meeting in about 30 minutes to try and work out how to "lock in" this windfall.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,785
    @Selebian

    Your avatar is terribly familiar but I can't place it. Put me out my misery. What is it?

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,588
    edited November 2022
    Leon said:

    Re the prior thread, there should be a compound German noun for “the crazy mental contortions we go through to justify actions by our guys, when we would find the same actions inexcusable in our enemy”

    The Hunter Biden/FBI/Twitter story is a classic example. People tying themselves in reef knots rather than admit this stinks, just as it would stink if it was the Trump family

    That said, we are ALL capable of doing this, and it happens all the time. And it occurs in every field of human endeavour. Sports as much as politics, for instance

    But it's an objective fact that the sleaze & corruption around Trump is orders of magnitude greater than around Biden. Attempts at equivalence - even those couched with a telegraphed worldliness - come to grief on that rock.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,593
    Andy_JS said:

    Is it a good idea for the left to weaponise the market response to a budget? Because it means if they propose a budget in the future and the markets don't like it they won't be able to complain about it.

    Like the Tories can no longer threaten voters with a coalition or suggest that electing their opponents would lead to chaos?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,814
    Scott_xP said:

    Ask not for whom the KLAXON sounds...

    He had full confidence in Gavin Williamson as well, and we know how that ended.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/rishi-sunak-has-full-confidence-in-dominic-raab-despite-bullying-claims-says-no10_uk_63722478e4b09c4db178774b

    Wasn't Priti Patel another one? What is it with recent Tory leaders and their penchant for bullies.....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,075
    Casino_Royale said:

    Bit my lip whilst eating cheese. Drawn blood. Bloody canines.

    Ow.


    As Shakespeare nearly said:
    If you prick us (tories) do we not bleed?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,004
    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Simon McDonald, Foreign Office perm sec when Dominic Raab was in charge, tells @andrewmarr9 he was “a tough boss”.

    "Do you think the characterisation of him as somebody who could bully, and around whom bullying happened, is a plausible one?" he is asked

    “Yes," he replies.

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1592136625244766208

    This isn't a Dominic Raab/ Gordon Brown/Fiona Hill/ Gavin Williamson/ Priti Patel/ Alistair Campbell thing.

    It's a politics thing.

    They are in high stress jobs, with a lot of personal accountability/risk, far too many have never worked outside politics or learnt basic people skills and they think the way to drive performance from their staff is to shout at them and throw a wobbly, which coincidentally doesn't require them to main self-control behind closed doors and is a bit of a release for them.

    You need to be always show respect to everyone: be firm & clear but fair on poor performance, always maintaining self-control, and recognise/celebrate good performance. You also need to set an example.

    These are basic leadership skills that apply in all human endeavours. They apply just as much to politics as everywhere else.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    So... charges are being brought again Hunter Biden for things not related to Joe Biden in any way. Showing both that he has not been given any corrupt special protection and that the desperate attempt to smear Joe Biden with his son's personal failings was a big nothing?

    The DEEP STATE are more cunning than I thought.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,565
    edited November 2022
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    @Selebian

    Your avatar is terribly familiar but I can't place it. Put me out my misery. What is it?

    Selby town seal. Adoptive town (nearest town to where I live).

    ETA: This example lifted from Wikipedia (public domain by the creator)
  • DriverDriver Posts: 5,560
    numbertwelve said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Simon McDonald, Foreign Office perm sec when Dominic Raab was in charge, tells @andrewmarr9 he was “a tough boss”.

    "Do you think the characterisation of him as somebody who could bully, and around whom bullying happened, is a plausible one?" he is asked

    “Yes," he replies.

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1592136625244766208

    I dislike this sort of briefing. If people have complaints to make about his behaviour they should submit a formal complaint. Otherwise it’s just gossip and conjecture which also isn’t particularly fair on the subject.

    (Note I would say this in respect of anyone. It doesn’t come out of any kind of fondness towards Raab).
    Ah, we're at the "ministers trying to overcome civil service obstructionism is bullying" stage of the government. Always happens. Both sides. Maybe it's even true.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,785
    Selebian said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    @Selebian

    Your avatar is terribly familiar but I can't place it. Put me out my misery. What is it?

    Selby town seal. Adoptive town (nearest town to where I live).

    ETA: This example lifted from Wikipedia (public domain by the creator)
    Thank you.

    I feel better for knowing that it wasn't quite as obvious as I suspected. I'd mistaken it for Buckinghamshire, and am pleased to find it's not a county emblem at all.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,002
    Casino_Royale said:

    Bit my lip whilst eating cheese. Drawn blood. Bloody canines.

    Ow.

    Ouch.

    But the full moon was last week ?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Tesla car crash in China leaves two dead after Model Y ‘loses control’

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tesla-car-crash-in-china-leaves-two-dead-after-model-y-loses-control-lftt50fs0
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    For me this sort of thing resembles the moronic talk about people dying if the thermostat in their heating is truned down 1 or 2 degrees to save some money. Like it or not the reality is when money is short there is no choice but cutting your costs and that applies to both individuals and governments. Everything we do has consequences most of which are unavoidable. The mini-Budget was a disaster but it was very short-lived and gilt rates are well off their highs. Likewise the £ is well off its lows against the Dollar and the Euro. Of course 'things getting back on track' does not make good copy ans Kay Burley can hardly shriek it outside no 10 without seeming like an idiot...oh ...
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,778
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Tesla car crash in China leaves two dead after Model Y ‘loses control’

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tesla-car-crash-in-china-leaves-two-dead-after-model-y-loses-control-lftt50fs0

    Decent odds the driver was stamping on the accelerator instead of the brakes.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,002
    What's the Mirror up to ?

    Reminds me of the pre-WW1 spy scare, whipped up by pulp fiction writers like William Le Queux

    Could your waiter be a spy for the Kaiser?

    fast forward a century

    Could your barista be a spy for the Kremlin?
    https://twitter.com/RoryCormac/status/1592077133584781315

    Unlike the 'Chinese police stations' stuff, which seems to have some real and slightly disturbing reality behind it.
  • barrykennabarrykenna Posts: 206
    If Corbyn stands as an Independent , he is very likely to win with the active support of most of the Islington North CLP. After close of nominations he might well receive endorsement from John Mcdonell, Diane Abbot and most of the Campaign group of Labour MPs. Starmer would be unwise to reopen this wound , and by doing so he risks lending credibility to Tory attacks which they no longer have with the wider electorate.For the vast majority of voters this is very much 'water under the bridge.'
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,565
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Selebian said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    @Selebian

    Your avatar is terribly familiar but I can't place it. Put me out my misery. What is it?

    Selby town seal. Adoptive town (nearest town to where I live).

    ETA: This example lifted from Wikipedia (public domain by the creator)
    Thank you.

    I feel better for knowing that it wasn't quite as obvious as I suspected. I'd mistaken it for Buckinghamshire, and am pleased to find it's not a county emblem at all.
    I'll have to change it now, of course, to keep you guessing :wink:

    Maybe to the Washington coat of arms...
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,588
    Andy_JS said:

    Is it a good idea for the left to weaponise the market response to a budget? Because it means if they propose a budget in the future and the markets don't like it they won't be able to complain about it.

    Handed a gift like this you have to take advantage. As to not being able to complain if the bond markets don't in future like a Labour budget, that's not really the issue. Of course they could complain - free speech - but the problem is it's now harder for them or anybody else to keep the money men onside. The balance of power has shifted a little.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,075
    DavidL said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I'm very sceptical of the quoted £75 bn. The LDI issue was a serious one, but it was one of liquidity, not long-term asset value. Short-term variations in gilt rates can make pension-fund assets suddenly worth less in 'mark to market' valuation, but the nominal value of the liabilities also changes in the opposite direction.

    So whilst the Kwarteng budget was undoubtedly spectacularly stupid, and whilst the UK will continue to have to pay a 'moron's premium' for a while, I don't think the effects are going to be long-lasting in pension-fund timescales. The damage is nothing like as bad as the effect of Brexit, which of course will continue to damage the economy in the long term

    The evidence of a "moron's premium" is already quite thin with gilt rates being almost exactly where they were when the wheels came off. The premium would, I accept, be higher if either KK or Truss were still in office.

    As I have pointed out before, for final salary schemes the international increase in gilt rates has been a godsend with pension liabilities falling faster than the underlying assets improving solvency. We are having a meeting in about 30 minutes to try and work out how to "lock in" this windfall.
    FWIW our actuaries are trying to get us to invest more of the fund in index linked gilts which they say will reduce volatility and risk. I am really not convinced about this: to me we would be swopping stock market volatility for interest rate volatility because a further significant increase in the base rate would cause major capital losses on the bonds.

    Given where public finances are and the incredible strength of US tech giants in particular it seems to me that these mega companies have more flexibility and room for maneuver than even medium to large countries such as the UK. I think that the assumptions that gilts are both safe and stable is, quite frankly, old fashioned.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,588
    Selebian said:

    Yes (but it will take some time)

    ETA: If Lab know what they're doing, they'll nail all the current woes on the Tories and the Truss episode, just as Osborne et al nailed the GFC on them. In neither case entirely fair, but effective.

    That has to be the template. Let's see if Starmer is as good at politics as George Osborne.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,593
    edited November 2022
    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Is it a good idea for the left to weaponise the market response to a budget? Because it means if they propose a budget in the future and the markets don't like it they won't be able to complain about it.

    Handed a gift like this you have to take advantage. As to not being able to complain if the bond markets don't in future like a Labour budget, that's not really the issue. Of course they could complain - free speech - but the problem is it's now harder for them or anybody else to keep the money men onside. The balance of power has shifted a little.
    The most likely political consequence is that the Tories won’t credibly be able to mount their usual “you can’t trust Labour with the economy” attack line, knowing that saying such would be met with laughter. That’s a bigger consequence than enabling Labour attacks as such; all Labour really needs to do is try and look quietly competent. Whether they are or not, obvs.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 15,763
    Selebian said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    @Selebian

    Your avatar is terribly familiar but I can't place it. Put me out my misery. What is it?

    Selby town seal. Adoptive town (nearest town to where I live).

    ETA: This example lifted from Wikipedia (public domain by the creator)
    Hence also, I suppose 'Selebian'.
    Oddly, never crossed my mind to wonder what a Selebian was. Just as it never crossed my mind to wonder what a kinabalu was until I was looking at a wikipedia list of the world's highest islands. I bet there's loads of interesting names out there I never wondered about. How disappointingly incurious of me.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,271
    The turmoil surrounding the mini-budget will be deployed in an attempt to force through lots of unpopular and destructive economic policies. Already it somehow reminds me of Thatcher being interviewed and reminding one particular interviewer how they predicted a Labour victory on election night in 1987. It's a political clapback. It's hollow and I don't think it bears scrutiny (though I wasn't a fan of the mini-budget or how Kwarteng handled it).
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Tesla car crash in China leaves two dead after Model Y ‘loses control’

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tesla-car-crash-in-china-leaves-two-dead-after-model-y-loses-control-lftt50fs0

    Pity EM wasnt in it (not EICIPM)
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,271
    barrykenna said:

    If Corbyn stands as an Independent , he is very likely to win with the active support of most of the Islington North CLP. After close of nominations he might well receive endorsement from John Mcdonell, Diane Abbot and most of the Campaign group of Labour MPs. Starmer would be unwise to reopen this wound , and by doing so he risks lending credibility to Tory attacks which they no longer have with the wider electorate.For the vast majority of voters this is very much 'water under the bridge.'

    I can't really even believe he's considering all this. It draws all the attention back to Corbyn and his wing of the party. It seems like a big own goal.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,683
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So when do we expect Lavrov to fall out of a window?

    Why would anyone open a window in Russia at this time of year?

    Ah ... yes ... I just thought of a reason.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,588
    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Is it a good idea for the left to weaponise the market response to a budget? Because it means if they propose a budget in the future and the markets don't like it they won't be able to complain about it.

    Handed a gift like this you have to take advantage. As to not being able to complain if the bond markets don't in future like a Labour budget, that's not really the issue. Of course they could complain - free speech - but the problem is it's now harder for them or anybody else to keep the money men onside. The balance of power has shifted a little.
    The most likely political consequence is that the Tories won’t credibly be able to mount their usual “you can’t trust Labour with the economy” attack line, knowing that saying such would be met with laughter. That’s a bigger consequence than enabling Labour attacks as such; all Labour really needs to do is try and look quietly competent. Whether they are or not, obvs.
    Yep, the structural Tory advantage on the economy wiped out and reversed - this in itself should be enough to put SKS into Downing St.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 15,780
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    barrykenna said:

    If Corbyn stands as an Independent , he is very likely to win with the active support of most of the Islington North CLP. After close of nominations he might well receive endorsement from John Mcdonell, Diane Abbot and most of the Campaign group of Labour MPs. Starmer would be unwise to reopen this wound , and by doing so he risks lending credibility to Tory attacks which they no longer have with the wider electorate.For the vast majority of voters this is very much 'water under the bridge.'

    I can't really even believe he's considering all this. It draws all the attention back to Corbyn and his wing of the party. It seems like a big own goal.
    It enables Labour to bat back Tory attack lines on Corbyn: “we removed our batshit crazy wing nut, you put yours in the home office”.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,499
    Cookie said:

    Selebian said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    @Selebian

    Your avatar is terribly familiar but I can't place it. Put me out my misery. What is it?

    Selby town seal. Adoptive town (nearest town to where I live).

    ETA: This example lifted from Wikipedia (public domain by the creator)
    Hence also, I suppose 'Selebian'.
    Oddly, never crossed my mind to wonder what a Selebian was. Just as it never crossed my mind to wonder what a kinabalu was until I was looking at a wikipedia list of the world's highest islands. I bet there's loads of interesting names out there I never wondered about. How disappointingly incurious of me.
    'Selebian' had not occurred to me either. It and 'Kinabalu' are both fine names.

    What really gets my goat are the people who choose to go by the name of historical figures, as if they gain some reflected glory in doing so. Such posters should be immediately banned, especially if the name comes from particularly obscure figures ...

    Ahem.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,785
    edited November 2022
    Cookie said:

    Selebian said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    @Selebian

    Your avatar is terribly familiar but I can't place it. Put me out my misery. What is it?

    Selby town seal. Adoptive town (nearest town to where I live).

    ETA: This example lifted from Wikipedia (public domain by the creator)
    Hence also, I suppose 'Selebian'.
    Oddly, never crossed my mind to wonder what a Selebian was. Just as it never crossed my mind to wonder what a kinabalu was until I was looking at a wikipedia list of the world's highest islands. I bet there's loads of interesting names out there I never wondered about. How disappointingly incurious of me.
    I could see it was an anagram of Baseline but my own curiosity stopped at that point, and I certainly didn't identify the Yorkshire connection.

    There is something about Yorkshire though. The most intriguing anagramatic name I ever came across was Trebor E Ba Gum, which convinced me that the late Dictator and President of Zimbabwe was in fact a mint manufacturer from Pontefract in a former life.

    Think about it.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,719
    kinabalu said:

    Selebian said:

    Yes (but it will take some time)

    ETA: If Lab know what they're doing, they'll nail all the current woes on the Tories and the Truss episode, just as Osborne et al nailed the GFC on them. In neither case entirely fair, but effective.

    That has to be the template. Let's see if Starmer is as good at politics as George Osborne.
    As long as he's better at economic policy.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 5,151
    numbertwelve said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Simon McDonald, Foreign Office perm sec when Dominic Raab was in charge, tells @andrewmarr9 he was “a tough boss”.

    "Do you think the characterisation of him as somebody who could bully, and around whom bullying happened, is a plausible one?" he is asked

    “Yes," he replies.

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1592136625244766208

    I dislike this sort of briefing. If people have complaints to make about his behaviour they should submit a formal complaint. Otherwise it’s just gossip and conjecture which also isn’t particularly fair on the subject.

    (Note I would say this in respect of anyone. It doesn’t come out of any kind of fondness towards Raab).
    Well, if bullies stuck to formal procedures about complaints and grievances, they wouldn't get accused of bullying.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,927
    News from the Neolithic


    “Afghanistan’s supreme leader has ordered judges to fully implement aspects of Islamic law that include public executions, stonings, floggings and the amputation of limbs for thieves, the Taliban’s chief spokesman said.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/14/afghanistan-supreme-leader-orders-full-implementation-of-sharia-law-taliban

  • barrykennabarrykenna Posts: 206
    TimS said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    barrykenna said:

    If Corbyn stands as an Independent , he is very likely to win with the active support of most of the Islington North CLP. After close of nominations he might well receive endorsement from John Mcdonell, Diane Abbot and most of the Campaign group of Labour MPs. Starmer would be unwise to reopen this wound , and by doing so he risks lending credibility to Tory attacks which they no longer have with the wider electorate.For the vast majority of voters this is very much 'water under the bridge.'

    I can't really even believe he's considering all this. It draws all the attention back to Corbyn and his wing of the party. It seems like a big own goal.
    It enables Labour to bat back Tory attack lines on Corbyn: “we removed our batshit crazy wing nut, you put yours in the home office”.
    It risks a serious Labour split in the middle of the GE campaign if a significant number of Labour MPs openly declare support for him and proceed to campaign on his behalf.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,719
    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Is it a good idea for the left to weaponise the market response to a budget? Because it means if they propose a budget in the future and the markets don't like it they won't be able to complain about it.

    Handed a gift like this you have to take advantage. As to not being able to complain if the bond markets don't in future like a Labour budget, that's not really the issue. Of course they could complain - free speech - but the problem is it's now harder for them or anybody else to keep the money men onside. The balance of power has shifted a little.
    The most likely political consequence is that the Tories won’t credibly be able to mount their usual “you can’t trust Labour with the economy” attack line, knowing that saying such would be met with laughter. That’s a bigger consequence than enabling Labour attacks as such; all Labour really needs to do is try and look quietly competent. Whether they are or not, obvs.
    Yep, the structural Tory advantage on the economy wiped out and reversed - this in itself should be enough to put SKS into Downing St.
    It's good strategy to attack your opponent on their perceived strengths not their weaknesses.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,408
    This is all nonsense as the value of pension fund liabilities have fallen by an even larger number.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,214
    Leon said:

    News from the Neolithic


    “Afghanistan’s supreme leader has ordered judges to fully implement aspects of Islamic law that include public executions, stonings, floggings and the amputation of limbs for thieves, the Taliban’s chief spokesman said.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/14/afghanistan-supreme-leader-orders-full-implementation-of-sharia-law-taliban

    It would have been funnier if they (the Taliban or the Graun) had used "spokesperson".
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    Leon said:

    News from the Neolithic


    “Afghanistan’s supreme leader has ordered judges to fully implement aspects of Islamic law that include public executions, stonings, floggings and the amputation of limbs for thieves, the Taliban’s chief spokesman said.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/14/afghanistan-supreme-leader-orders-full-implementation-of-sharia-law-taliban

    What do they do when the toddler picks something off the shelves from the supermarket trolley when the mother's (not likely to be the father in Afghanistan now) back is turned? Barbarians.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,214
    barrykenna said:

    TimS said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    barrykenna said:

    If Corbyn stands as an Independent , he is very likely to win with the active support of most of the Islington North CLP. After close of nominations he might well receive endorsement from John Mcdonell, Diane Abbot and most of the Campaign group of Labour MPs. Starmer would be unwise to reopen this wound , and by doing so he risks lending credibility to Tory attacks which they no longer have with the wider electorate.For the vast majority of voters this is very much 'water under the bridge.'

    I can't really even believe he's considering all this. It draws all the attention back to Corbyn and his wing of the party. It seems like a big own goal.
    It enables Labour to bat back Tory attack lines on Corbyn: “we removed our batshit crazy wing nut, you put yours in the home office”.
    It risks a serious Labour split in the middle of the GE campaign if a significant number of Labour MPs openly declare support for him and proceed to campaign on his behalf.
    Would you say there is a substantial number of Lab MPs who bemoan Jezza going, a la our own @bjo?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,002
    Interesting thread on the Nevada result.
    It would appear the automatic voter registration can make quite a difference.

    'tis the season for analysis that reaffirms one's worldview. Beware any post-mortem that suggests this election result was all turnout, or all persuasion. It was both, of course, but there are other issues here that I'll explain for anyone who appreciates a deep dive.
    https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1592144826807554049
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,588
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    kinabalu said:

    Selebian said:

    Yes (but it will take some time)

    ETA: If Lab know what they're doing, they'll nail all the current woes on the Tories and the Truss episode, just as Osborne et al nailed the GFC on them. In neither case entirely fair, but effective.

    That has to be the template. Let's see if Starmer is as good at politics as George Osborne.
    As long as he's better at economic policy.
    Ah well I'm just assuming that one.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,588
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Is it a good idea for the left to weaponise the market response to a budget? Because it means if they propose a budget in the future and the markets don't like it they won't be able to complain about it.

    Handed a gift like this you have to take advantage. As to not being able to complain if the bond markets don't in future like a Labour budget, that's not really the issue. Of course they could complain - free speech - but the problem is it's now harder for them or anybody else to keep the money men onside. The balance of power has shifted a little.
    The most likely political consequence is that the Tories won’t credibly be able to mount their usual “you can’t trust Labour with the economy” attack line, knowing that saying such would be met with laughter. That’s a bigger consequence than enabling Labour attacks as such; all Labour really needs to do is try and look quietly competent. Whether they are or not, obvs.
    Yep, the structural Tory advantage on the economy wiped out and reversed - this in itself should be enough to put SKS into Downing St.
    It's good strategy to attack your opponent on their perceived strengths not their weaknesses.
    There's almost too much to go at atm.

    What's your opinion of Reeves btw?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,002
    JPMorgan Reveals Shock ‘Cascade’ Bitcoin Price Prediction After Stunning FTX Meltdown
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2022/11/13/jpmorgan-reveals-shock-cascade-bitcoin-price-prediction-after-stunning-ftx-meltdown/
    ...The researchers said they expect the latest crypto crisis—coming after a series of failures this year—could push the bitcoin price to lows of $13,000 due to a "cascade of margin calls" in the aftermath of the FTX collapse, pointing to bitcoin production costs that are currently around $15,000 per bitcoin...

    Wut ?
  • barrykennabarrykenna Posts: 206
    TOPPING said:

    barrykenna said:

    TimS said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    barrykenna said:

    If Corbyn stands as an Independent , he is very likely to win with the active support of most of the Islington North CLP. After close of nominations he might well receive endorsement from John Mcdonell, Diane Abbot and most of the Campaign group of Labour MPs. Starmer would be unwise to reopen this wound , and by doing so he risks lending credibility to Tory attacks which they no longer have with the wider electorate.For the vast majority of voters this is very much 'water under the bridge.'

    I can't really even believe he's considering all this. It draws all the attention back to Corbyn and his wing of the party. It seems like a big own goal.
    It enables Labour to bat back Tory attack lines on Corbyn: “we removed our batshit crazy wing nut, you put yours in the home office”.
    It risks a serious Labour split in the middle of the GE campaign if a significant number of Labour MPs openly declare support for him and proceed to campaign on his behalf.
    Would you say there is a substantial number of Lab MPs who bemoan Jezza going, a la our own @bjo?
    Members of the Campaigb group - circa 25 MPs.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,588
    barrykenna said:

    TimS said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    barrykenna said:

    If Corbyn stands as an Independent , he is very likely to win with the active support of most of the Islington North CLP. After close of nominations he might well receive endorsement from John Mcdonell, Diane Abbot and most of the Campaign group of Labour MPs. Starmer would be unwise to reopen this wound , and by doing so he risks lending credibility to Tory attacks which they no longer have with the wider electorate.For the vast majority of voters this is very much 'water under the bridge.'

    I can't really even believe he's considering all this. It draws all the attention back to Corbyn and his wing of the party. It seems like a big own goal.
    It enables Labour to bat back Tory attack lines on Corbyn: “we removed our batshit crazy wing nut, you put yours in the home office”.
    It risks a serious Labour split in the middle of the GE campaign if a significant number of Labour MPs openly declare support for him and proceed to campaign on his behalf.
    I personally don't want Corbyn expelled but I'm starting to really trust Starmer on what's best for maximizing the GE24 result. I think he'll do that calculation here and get it right.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,719
    kinabalu said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    kinabalu said:

    IanB2 said:

    kinabalu said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Is it a good idea for the left to weaponise the market response to a budget? Because it means if they propose a budget in the future and the markets don't like it they won't be able to complain about it.

    Handed a gift like this you have to take advantage. As to not being able to complain if the bond markets don't in future like a Labour budget, that's not really the issue. Of course they could complain - free speech - but the problem is it's now harder for them or anybody else to keep the money men onside. The balance of power has shifted a little.
    The most likely political consequence is that the Tories won’t credibly be able to mount their usual “you can’t trust Labour with the economy” attack line, knowing that saying such would be met with laughter. That’s a bigger consequence than enabling Labour attacks as such; all Labour really needs to do is try and look quietly competent. Whether they are or not, obvs.
    Yep, the structural Tory advantage on the economy wiped out and reversed - this in itself should be enough to put SKS into Downing St.
    It's good strategy to attack your opponent on their perceived strengths not their weaknesses.
    There's almost too much to go at atm.

    What's your opinion of Reeves btw?
    I like her. Knows what she's talking about. Seems to have a good relationship with the leader. She's not very exciting but doesn't need to be in that portfolio.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,992
    Nigelb said:

    What's the Mirror up to ?

    Reminds me of the pre-WW1 spy scare, whipped up by pulp fiction writers like William Le Queux

    Could your waiter be a spy for the Kaiser?

    fast forward a century

    Could your barista be a spy for the Kremlin?
    https://twitter.com/RoryCormac/status/1592077133584781315

    Unlike the 'Chinese police stations' stuff, which seems to have some real and slightly disturbing reality behind it.

    They're obviously concerned that baristas may spill the beans.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Nigelb said:

    JPMorgan Reveals Shock ‘Cascade’ Bitcoin Price Prediction After Stunning FTX Meltdown
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2022/11/13/jpmorgan-reveals-shock-cascade-bitcoin-price-prediction-after-stunning-ftx-meltdown/
    ...The researchers said they expect the latest crypto crisis—coming after a series of failures this year—could push the bitcoin price to lows of $13,000 due to a "cascade of margin calls" in the aftermath of the FTX collapse, pointing to bitcoin production costs that are currently around $15,000 per bitcoin...

    Wut ?

    Electricity cost to run Bitcoin mining rig.

    The production cost is always going to be near the current price.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,695
    Casino_Royale said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Simon McDonald, Foreign Office perm sec when Dominic Raab was in charge, tells @andrewmarr9 he was “a tough boss”.

    "Do you think the characterisation of him as somebody who could bully, and around whom bullying happened, is a plausible one?" he is asked

    “Yes," he replies.

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1592136625244766208

    This isn't a Dominic Raab/ Gordon Brown/Fiona Hill/ Gavin Williamson/ Priti Patel/ Alistair Campbell thing.

    It's a politics thing.

    They are in high stress jobs, with a lot of personal accountability/risk, far too many have never worked outside politics or learnt basic people skills and they think the way to drive performance from their staff is to shout at them and throw a wobbly, which coincidentally doesn't require them to main self-control behind closed doors and is a bit of a release for them.

    You need to be always show respect to everyone: be firm & clear but fair on poor performance, always maintaining self-control, and recognise/celebrate good performance. You also need to set an example.

    These are basic leadership skills that apply in all human endeavours. They apply just as much to politics as everywhere else.
    I also imagine that the challenge is that the minister isn't the manager of the department they head. They can't fire civil servants, only their own advisors. So I can see where even someone who is a very effective business manager suddenly becomes ineffective - they can see the processes / people who are the problem but can do very little about it...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,432
    Nigelb said:

    JPMorgan Reveals Shock ‘Cascade’ Bitcoin Price Prediction After Stunning FTX Meltdown
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2022/11/13/jpmorgan-reveals-shock-cascade-bitcoin-price-prediction-after-stunning-ftx-meltdown/
    ...The researchers said they expect the latest crypto crisis—coming after a series of failures this year—could push the bitcoin price to lows of $13,000 due to a "cascade of margin calls" in the aftermath of the FTX collapse, pointing to bitcoin production costs that are currently around $15,000 per bitcoin...

    Wut ?

    Yes, very high energy costs plus Nvidia have been nerfing consumer level GPUs for the kind of compute needed for mining so the fixed cost has gone up alongside the variable cost. Theres truckloads of GPUs going up for sale on secondary markets all over Asia.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 63,927
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    News from the Neolithic


    “Afghanistan’s supreme leader has ordered judges to fully implement aspects of Islamic law that include public executions, stonings, floggings and the amputation of limbs for thieves, the Taliban’s chief spokesman said.”


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/14/afghanistan-supreme-leader-orders-full-implementation-of-sharia-law-taliban

    It would have been funnier if they (the Taliban or the Graun) had used "spokesperson".
    It’s already quite funny that the Head Taliban Dude released news of the latest stoning-and-amputation edict in “a tweet”

    Imagine trying to explain this entire scenario to someone in the early 1980s
  • barrykennabarrykenna Posts: 206
    kinabalu said:

    barrykenna said:

    TimS said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    barrykenna said:

    If Corbyn stands as an Independent , he is very likely to win with the active support of most of the Islington North CLP. After close of nominations he might well receive endorsement from John Mcdonell, Diane Abbot and most of the Campaign group of Labour MPs. Starmer would be unwise to reopen this wound , and by doing so he risks lending credibility to Tory attacks which they no longer have with the wider electorate.For the vast majority of voters this is very much 'water under the bridge.'

    I can't really even believe he's considering all this. It draws all the attention back to Corbyn and his wing of the party. It seems like a big own goal.
    It enables Labour to bat back Tory attack lines on Corbyn: “we removed our batshit crazy wing nut, you put yours in the home office”.
    It risks a serious Labour split in the middle of the GE campaign if a significant number of Labour MPs openly declare support for him and proceed to campaign on his behalf.
    I personally don't want Corbyn expelled but I'm starting to really trust Starmer on what's best for maximizing the GE24 result. I think he'll do that calculation here and get it right.
    His political antennae are not good - as revealed by calling the Hartlepool by election in Spring last year with disastrous consequences electorally. That was followed by the near loss of Batley & Spen a couple of months later. Labour's much stronger position today owes 90% to the Tories having imploded - rather than to Starmer himself.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Lol SpaceX has just went and made a bog old advertising purchase on Twitter.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,271
    TimS said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    barrykenna said:

    If Corbyn stands as an Independent , he is very likely to win with the active support of most of the Islington North CLP. After close of nominations he might well receive endorsement from John Mcdonell, Diane Abbot and most of the Campaign group of Labour MPs. Starmer would be unwise to reopen this wound , and by doing so he risks lending credibility to Tory attacks which they no longer have with the wider electorate.For the vast majority of voters this is very much 'water under the bridge.'

    I can't really even believe he's considering all this. It draws all the attention back to Corbyn and his wing of the party. It seems like a big own goal.
    It enables Labour to bat back Tory attack lines on Corbyn: “we removed our batshit crazy wing nut, you put yours in the home office”.
    It doesn't really. It proves that the attack has worked.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,588
    Cookie said:

    Selebian said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    @Selebian

    Your avatar is terribly familiar but I can't place it. Put me out my misery. What is it?

    Selby town seal. Adoptive town (nearest town to where I live).

    ETA: This example lifted from Wikipedia (public domain by the creator)
    Hence also, I suppose 'Selebian'.
    Oddly, never crossed my mind to wonder what a Selebian was. Just as it never crossed my mind to wonder what a kinabalu was until I was looking at a wikipedia list of the world's highest islands. I bet there's loads of interesting names out there I never wondered about. How disappointingly incurious of me.
    Some names are obvious, though, no need to look them up. Eg you are a biscuit. Although why you chose it is quite interesting. Not that you have to share if it's too personal.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,002
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I'm very sceptical of the quoted £75 bn. The LDI issue was a serious one, but it was one of liquidity, not long-term asset value. Short-term variations in gilt rates can make pension-fund assets suddenly worth less in 'mark to market' valuation, but the nominal value of the liabilities also changes in the opposite direction.

    So whilst the Kwarteng budget was undoubtedly spectacularly stupid, and whilst the UK will continue to have to pay a 'moron's premium' for a while, I don't think the effects are going to be long-lasting in pension-fund timescales. The damage is nothing like as bad as the effect of Brexit, which of course will continue to damage the economy in the long term

    The evidence of a "moron's premium" is already quite thin with gilt rates being almost exactly where they were when the wheels came off. The premium would, I accept, be higher if either KK or Truss were still in office.

    As I have pointed out before, for final salary schemes the international increase in gilt rates has been a godsend with pension liabilities falling faster than the underlying assets improving solvency. We are having a meeting in about 30 minutes to try and work out how to "lock in" this windfall.
    FWIW our actuaries are trying to get us to invest more of the fund in index linked gilts which they say will reduce volatility and risk. I am really not convinced about this: to me we would be swopping stock market volatility for interest rate volatility because a further significant increase in the base rate would cause major capital losses on the bonds. ..
    That would depend on the maturity of the IL Gilts, wouldn't it ?

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,214
    barrykenna said:

    TOPPING said:

    barrykenna said:

    TimS said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    barrykenna said:

    If Corbyn stands as an Independent , he is very likely to win with the active support of most of the Islington North CLP. After close of nominations he might well receive endorsement from John Mcdonell, Diane Abbot and most of the Campaign group of Labour MPs. Starmer would be unwise to reopen this wound , and by doing so he risks lending credibility to Tory attacks which they no longer have with the wider electorate.For the vast majority of voters this is very much 'water under the bridge.'

    I can't really even believe he's considering all this. It draws all the attention back to Corbyn and his wing of the party. It seems like a big own goal.
    It enables Labour to bat back Tory attack lines on Corbyn: “we removed our batshit crazy wing nut, you put yours in the home office”.
    It risks a serious Labour split in the middle of the GE campaign if a significant number of Labour MPs openly declare support for him and proceed to campaign on his behalf.
    Would you say there is a substantial number of Lab MPs who bemoan Jezza going, a la our own @bjo?
    Members of the Campaigb group - circa 25 MPs.
    thx
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 80,002
    edited November 2022
    Alistair said:

    Lol SpaceX has just went and made a bog old advertising purchase on Twitter.

    SpaceX needs to advertise ?
    I thought free publicity was Musk's special genius.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,758
    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    JPMorgan Reveals Shock ‘Cascade’ Bitcoin Price Prediction After Stunning FTX Meltdown
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2022/11/13/jpmorgan-reveals-shock-cascade-bitcoin-price-prediction-after-stunning-ftx-meltdown/
    ...The researchers said they expect the latest crypto crisis—coming after a series of failures this year—could push the bitcoin price to lows of $13,000 due to a "cascade of margin calls" in the aftermath of the FTX collapse, pointing to bitcoin production costs that are currently around $15,000 per bitcoin...

    Wut ?

    Yes, very high energy costs plus Nvidia have been nerfing consumer level GPUs for the kind of compute needed for mining so the fixed cost has gone up alongside the variable cost. Theres truckloads of GPUs going up for sale on secondary markets all over Asia.
    GPUs haven't been used for bit-coin for years. They were used for Ethereum, but that's been fixed now, so combined with the drop in the price of the remaining GPU-mined coins there are a lot of them out there ready to be used for gaming as god intended.

    Unrelatedly, that Forbes article is garbage.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,695
    barrykenna said:

    kinabalu said:

    barrykenna said:

    TimS said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    barrykenna said:

    If Corbyn stands as an Independent , he is very likely to win with the active support of most of the Islington North CLP. After close of nominations he might well receive endorsement from John Mcdonell, Diane Abbot and most of the Campaign group of Labour MPs. Starmer would be unwise to reopen this wound , and by doing so he risks lending credibility to Tory attacks which they no longer have with the wider electorate.For the vast majority of voters this is very much 'water under the bridge.'

    I can't really even believe he's considering all this. It draws all the attention back to Corbyn and his wing of the party. It seems like a big own goal.
    It enables Labour to bat back Tory attack lines on Corbyn: “we removed our batshit crazy wing nut, you put yours in the home office”.
    It risks a serious Labour split in the middle of the GE campaign if a significant number of Labour MPs openly declare support for him and proceed to campaign on his behalf.
    I personally don't want Corbyn expelled but I'm starting to really trust Starmer on what's best for maximizing the GE24 result. I think he'll do that calculation here and get it right.
    His political antennae are not good - as revealed by calling the Hartlepool by election in Spring last year with disastrous consequences electorally. That was followed by the near loss of Batley & Spen a couple of months later. Labour's much stronger position today owes 90% to the Tories having imploded - rather than to Starmer himself.
    Partly true. But its very clear that Starmer and his team have learned a lot in a short period. Making small mistakes is ok if you learn from them and do things better going forward.
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,784
    edited November 2022
    Selebian said:

    Yes (but it will take some time)

    ETA: If Lab know what they're doing, they'll nail all the current woes on the Tories and the Truss episode, just as Osborne et al nailed the GFC on them. In neither case entirely fair, but effective.

    No, on the contrary. The Tories want to nail all the current woes on the very short-lived Truss episode, and pretend that they were an abberation that has nothing to do with sound economic management that came before and afterwards. Basically, Kwarteng and Truss are useful departed scapegoats.

    Labour's task is not to fall into that trap and shape the narrative such that the current woes are the culmination of 12 soon to be 13 years of economic mismanagement including several years when Sunak himself was at the helm, and that the Conservatives solution now is to prescribe yet more of the same austerity medicine.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,499
    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    Lol SpaceX has just went and made a bog old advertising purchase on Twitter.

    SpaceX needs to advertise ?
    I thought free publicity was Musk's special genius.
    Probably for Starlink.

    But it sniffs a bit. I really hope that they purchased the ads at the going rate...
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,271
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Simon McDonald, Foreign Office perm sec when Dominic Raab was in charge, tells @andrewmarr9 he was “a tough boss”.

    "Do you think the characterisation of him as somebody who could bully, and around whom bullying happened, is a plausible one?" he is asked

    “Yes," he replies.

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1592136625244766208

    This isn't a Dominic Raab/ Gordon Brown/Fiona Hill/ Gavin Williamson/ Priti Patel/ Alistair Campbell thing.

    It's a politics thing.

    They are in high stress jobs, with a lot of personal accountability/risk, far too many have never worked outside politics or learnt basic people skills and they think the way to drive performance from their staff is to shout at them and throw a wobbly, which coincidentally doesn't require them to main self-control behind closed doors and is a bit of a release for them.

    You need to be always show respect to everyone: be firm & clear but fair on poor performance, always maintaining self-control, and recognise/celebrate good performance. You also need to set an example.

    These are basic leadership skills that apply in all human endeavours. They apply just as much to politics as everywhere else.
    I also imagine that the challenge is that the minister isn't the manager of the department they head. They can't fire civil servants, only their own advisors. So I can see where even someone who is a very effective business manager suddenly becomes ineffective - they can see the processes / people who are the problem but can do very little about it...
    Yes. That's a big issue. The Minister needs more than anything to motivate their department, but they have no control over the levers of incentive and disincentive. The system is actually very Victorian - depending on totally impartial civil servants scribbling away by candlelight in cold offices just to implement the will of the Government. Those people don't exist anymore.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,756
    edited November 2022
    Elon is the Liz Truss of Twitter.

    Take over a rather rocky ship, remove much of the old staff from their posts, start instituting your half-baked ideas too quickly, chaos ensues, disaster beckons.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,695
    numbertwelve said:

    Elon is the Liz Truss of Twitter.

    Take over a rather rocky ship, remove much of the old staff from their posts, start instituting your half-baked ideas too quickly, chaos ensues, disaster beckons.

    Great fun though!
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,183
    edited November 2022
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    I'm very sceptical of the quoted £75 bn. The LDI issue was a serious one, but it was one of liquidity, not long-term asset value. Short-term variations in gilt rates can make pension-fund assets suddenly worth less in 'mark to market' valuation, but the nominal value of the liabilities also changes in the opposite direction.

    So whilst the Kwarteng budget was undoubtedly spectacularly stupid, and whilst the UK will continue to have to pay a 'moron's premium' for a while, I don't think the effects are going to be long-lasting in pension-fund timescales. The damage is nothing like as bad as the effect of Brexit, which of course will continue to damage the economy in the long term

    The evidence of a "moron's premium" is already quite thin with gilt rates being almost exactly where they were when the wheels came off. The premium would, I accept, be higher if either KK or Truss were still in office.

    As I have pointed out before, for final salary schemes the international increase in gilt rates has been a godsend with pension liabilities falling faster than the underlying assets improving solvency. We are having a meeting in about 30 minutes to try and work out how to "lock in" this windfall.
    FWIW our actuaries are trying to get us to invest more of the fund in index linked gilts which they say will reduce volatility and risk. I am really not convinced about this: to me we would be swopping stock market volatility for interest rate volatility because a further significant increase in the base rate would cause major capital losses on the bonds.

    Given where public finances are and the incredible strength of US tech giants in particular it seems to me that these mega companies have more flexibility and room for maneuver than even medium to large countries such as the UK. I think that the assumptions that gilts are both safe and stable is, quite frankly, old fashioned.
    Relying on big tech companies is problematic too. Amazon shares halved in price during the last six months. Facebook (Meta) lost two thirds in a year. Surprisingly, Twitter is back where it was after a roller-coaster ride. As I mentioned before, the fund managers looking after my own pension pot managed to lose a third of its value recently, so I'd be wary of assuming any great expertise on behalf of the money-men. I'm now worried Jeremy Hunt will grab the rest! Good luck.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 46,588
    edited November 2022
    barrykenna said:

    kinabalu said:

    barrykenna said:

    TimS said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    barrykenna said:

    If Corbyn stands as an Independent , he is very likely to win with the active support of most of the Islington North CLP. After close of nominations he might well receive endorsement from John Mcdonell, Diane Abbot and most of the Campaign group of Labour MPs. Starmer would be unwise to reopen this wound , and by doing so he risks lending credibility to Tory attacks which they no longer have with the wider electorate.For the vast majority of voters this is very much 'water under the bridge.'

    I can't really even believe he's considering all this. It draws all the attention back to Corbyn and his wing of the party. It seems like a big own goal.
    It enables Labour to bat back Tory attack lines on Corbyn: “we removed our batshit crazy wing nut, you put yours in the home office”.
    It risks a serious Labour split in the middle of the GE campaign if a significant number of Labour MPs openly declare support for him and proceed to campaign on his behalf.
    I personally don't want Corbyn expelled but I'm starting to really trust Starmer on what's best for maximizing the GE24 result. I think he'll do that calculation here and get it right.
    His political antennae are not good - as revealed by calling the Hartlepool by election in Spring last year with disastrous consequences electorally. That was followed by the near loss of Batley & Spen a couple of months later. Labour's much stronger position today owes 90% to the Tories having imploded - rather than to Starmer himself.
    The Tories certainly have imploded since their Hartlepool peak and B&S was indeed hairy. If that had been lost Starmer might have been in trouble. It was pivotal. However look at the big picture. He took over shortly after a landslide defeat and pretty much straightaway came Covid which meant that for the best part of 2 years the public had little interest in the Opposition opposing.

    "Here's our great alternative ideas for xyz!"

    "Oh do shut up, ffs, there's a pandemic on."

    So, he played that as best he could - stayed calm, didn't irritate - whilst slowly but surely doing the groundwork to get a hearing when times normalized. Then, lucky for him, VERY lucky I agree, times didn't normalize, rather the Tories poured petrol on themselves and immolated. After which you can only eat what's on the plate in front of you - and he is.
  • DJ41DJ41 Posts: 792
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Simon McDonald, Foreign Office perm sec when Dominic Raab was in charge, tells @andrewmarr9 he was “a tough boss”.

    "Do you think the characterisation of him as somebody who could bully, and around whom bullying happened, is a plausible one?" he is asked

    “Yes," he replies.

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1592136625244766208

    This isn't a Dominic Raab/ Gordon Brown/Fiona Hill/ Gavin Williamson/ Priti Patel/ Alistair Campbell thing.

    It's a politics thing.

    They are in high stress jobs, with a lot of personal accountability/risk, far too many have never worked outside politics or learnt basic people skills and they think the way to drive performance from their staff is to shout at them and throw a wobbly, which coincidentally doesn't require them to main self-control behind closed doors and is a bit of a release for them.

    You need to be always show respect to everyone: be firm & clear but fair on poor performance, always maintaining self-control, and recognise/celebrate good performance. You also need to set an example.

    These are basic leadership skills that apply in all human endeavours. They apply just as much to politics as everywhere else.
    I also imagine that the challenge is that the minister isn't the manager of the department they head. They can't fire civil servants, only their own advisors. So I can see where even someone who is a very effective business manager suddenly becomes ineffective - they can see the processes / people who are the problem but can do very little about it...
    Yes. That's a big issue. The Minister needs more than anything to motivate their department, but they have no control over the levers of incentive and disincentive. The system is actually very Victorian - depending on totally impartial civil servants scribbling away by candlelight in cold offices just to implement the will of the Government. Those people don't exist anymore.
    The British civil service was established in the 1870s on the Chinese model.
    The schools that were ~reformed at the same time in what was essentially the same process still exist.

    Does anybody think politicians would be better at running the state than civil servants? I'm not on either of their sides. Just wondering. Politicians?
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 6,512
    kinabalu said:

    barrykenna said:

    kinabalu said:

    barrykenna said:

    TimS said:

    Luckyguy1983 said:

    barrykenna said:

    If Corbyn stands as an Independent , he is very likely to win with the active support of most of the Islington North CLP. After close of nominations he might well receive endorsement from John Mcdonell, Diane Abbot and most of the Campaign group of Labour MPs. Starmer would be unwise to reopen this wound , and by doing so he risks lending credibility to Tory attacks which they no longer have with the wider electorate.For the vast majority of voters this is very much 'water under the bridge.'

    I can't really even believe he's considering all this. It draws all the attention back to Corbyn and his wing of the party. It seems like a big own goal.
    It enables Labour to bat back Tory attack lines on Corbyn: “we removed our batshit crazy wing nut, you put yours in the home office”.
    It risks a serious Labour split in the middle of the GE campaign if a significant number of Labour MPs openly declare support for him and proceed to campaign on his behalf.
    I personally don't want Corbyn expelled but I'm starting to really trust Starmer on what's best for maximizing the GE24 result. I think he'll do that calculation here and get it right.
    His political antennae are not good - as revealed by calling the Hartlepool by election in Spring last year with disastrous consequences electorally. That was followed by the near loss of Batley & Spen a couple of months later. Labour's much stronger position today owes 90% to the Tories having imploded - rather than to Starmer himself.
    The Tories certainly have imploded since their Hartlepool peak and B&S was indeed hairy. If that had been lost Starmer might have been in trouble. It was pivotal. However look at the big picture. He took over shortly after a landslide defeat and pretty much straightaway came Covid which meant that for the best part of 2 years the public had little interest in the Opposition opposing.

    "Here's our great alternative ideas for xyz!"

    "Oh do shut up, ffs, there's a pandemic on."

    So, he played that as best he could - stayed calm, didn't irritate - whilst slowly but surely doing the groundwork to get a hearing when times normalized. Then, lucky for him, VERY lucky I agree, times didn't normalize, rather the Tories poured petrol on themselves and immolated. After which you can only eat what's on the plate in front of you - and he is.
    He invented the Johnson variant

    That was pure genius
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,774
    No_Offence_Alan said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Scott_xP said:

    NEW: Simon McDonald, Foreign Office perm sec when Dominic Raab was in charge, tells @andrewmarr9 he was “a tough boss”.

    "Do you think the characterisation of him as somebody who could bully, and around whom bullying happened, is a plausible one?" he is asked

    “Yes," he replies.

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1592136625244766208

    I dislike this sort of briefing. If people have complaints to make about his behaviour they should submit a formal complaint. Otherwise it’s just gossip and conjecture which also isn’t particularly fair on the subject.

    (Note I would say this in respect of anyone. It doesn’t come out of any kind of fondness towards Raab).
    Well, if bullies stuck to formal procedures about complaints and grievances, they wouldn't get accused of bullying.
    More correctly, surely, they would be accused: but their subordinates would have no excuse to go public.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,809
    "Hunt has been dealt a poor hand in the proposed parliamentary constituency boundary changes, which were published last week and become law next summer.

    Hunt's South West Surrey constituency is being split into two, making both new seats highly marginal for the Tories. He's not best pleased at the prospect. 'I need to understand the implications of the report, which are terrible for me personally,' he has said.

    'After proudly representing Godalming, Farnham & Haslemere (and their surrounding villages) for more than 17 years, it looks like I will have to choose between two halves of a constituency that is basically being cut in two — a frankly impossible and heart-breaking choice. There is now a four-week consultation and I will not be rushing this particularly difficult decision.'"

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-11424285/ANDREW-PIERCE-Jeremy-Hunts-headache-Budget-cost-seat.html
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