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Will the Tories ever get over the Kwasi Budget? – politicalbetting.com
Will the Tories ever get over the Kwasi Budget? – politicalbetting.com
One of the most stunning figures to have emerged in the past few days is that the effort to save sterling in the aftermath of the September budget could have cost the UK pensions industry up to £75 billion.
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I assumed any costs are just going to be passed onto future pensioners.
ETA: If Lab know what they're doing, they'll nail all the current woes on the Tories and the Truss episode, just as Osborne et al nailed the GFC on them. In neither case entirely fair, but effective.
So whilst the Kwarteng budget was undoubtedly spectacularly stupid, and whilst the UK will continue to have to pay a 'moron's premium' for a while, I don't think the effects are going to be long-lasting in pension-fund timescales. The damage is nothing like as bad as the effect of Brexit, which of course will continue to damage the economy in the long term
Then again a pension fund which eschewed them in favour of a boring 50/50 bond/equity setup would be looking pretty sick at the moment too.
All above my pay grade
If pension funds weren't prepared for a Tory who wanted to cut taxes having promised just that over the summer... it feels like they were at least partly to blame also.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/nov/14/jeremy-corbyn-will-never-stand-for-labour-again-say-senior-figures
The Hunter Biden/FBI/Twitter story is a classic example. People tying themselves in reef knots rather than admit this stinks, just as it would stink if it was the Trump family
That said, we are ALL capable of doing this, and it happens all the time. And it occurs in every field of human endeavour. Sports as much as politics, for instance
This is just the start of our campaign to secure 700 laptops for Ukrainian orphan foster families that we (http://sunfloweracademy.org.ua) support.
Many orphan foster families (typical 4-10 kids in each) are displaced and they can only attend school online.
https://mobile.twitter.com/AppleHelix/status/1592123592103563265
The Tories have nullified their greatest attack line (how can you ever be sure that lot won't put someone like that in charge again?)
I say this as someone who was moderately sympathetic to Truss's aims. I thought she had identified the biggest problem for the UK right now (we are just not making enough money) and also had the right broad approach to addressing it (focus on growth). But oh, the utter reality-denying cackhanded unprofessional uselessness!
However if Labour wins the next general election sorting out the economy will then be Starmer and Reeves' problem
The only affect is that the company may have to make higher contributions to fund the deficit.
He had full confidence in Gavin Williamson as well, and we know how that ended.
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/rishi-sunak-has-full-confidence-in-dominic-raab-despite-bullying-claims-says-no10_uk_63722478e4b09c4db178774b
You can worry about the rest when you’re in power and have decisions of your own to make.
After Black Wednesday the Tories led in just one poll between September 1993 and August 2000.
That's how bad the Special Fiscal Operation was.
I am using this in thread headers
I presume the intention of Labour at the moment is to go down the good terms route, rather than asset seizures, or paying off debt so we don't have to care what the market thinks.
"Do you think the characterisation of him as somebody who could bully, and around whom bullying happened, is a plausible one?" he is asked
“Yes," he replies.
https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1592136625244766208
Ow.
https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1592137336841973761
https://twitter.com/dissident_the/status/1592133748954652672
(Note I would say this in respect of anyone. It doesn’t come out of any kind of fondness towards Raab).
As I have pointed out before, for final salary schemes the international increase in gilt rates has been a godsend with pension liabilities falling faster than the underlying assets improving solvency. We are having a meeting in about 30 minutes to try and work out how to "lock in" this windfall.
Your avatar is terribly familiar but I can't place it. Put me out my misery. What is it?
As Shakespeare nearly said:
If you prick us (tories) do we not bleed?
It's a politics thing.
They are in high stress jobs, with a lot of personal accountability/risk, far too many have never worked outside politics or learnt basic people skills and they think the way to drive performance from their staff is to shout at them and throw a wobbly, which coincidentally doesn't require them to main self-control behind closed doors and is a bit of a release for them.
You need to be always show respect to everyone: be firm & clear but fair on poor performance, always maintaining self-control, and recognise/celebrate good performance. You also need to set an example.
These are basic leadership skills that apply in all human endeavours. They apply just as much to politics as everywhere else.
The DEEP STATE are more cunning than I thought.
ETA: This example lifted from Wikipedia (public domain by the creator)
I feel better for knowing that it wasn't quite as obvious as I suspected. I'd mistaken it for Buckinghamshire, and am pleased to find it's not a county emblem at all.
But the full moon was last week ?
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tesla-car-crash-in-china-leaves-two-dead-after-model-y-loses-control-lftt50fs0
Reminds me of the pre-WW1 spy scare, whipped up by pulp fiction writers like William Le Queux
Could your waiter be a spy for the Kaiser?
fast forward a century
Could your barista be a spy for the Kremlin?
https://twitter.com/RoryCormac/status/1592077133584781315
Unlike the 'Chinese police stations' stuff, which seems to have some real and slightly disturbing reality behind it.
Maybe to the Washington coat of arms...
Given where public finances are and the incredible strength of US tech giants in particular it seems to me that these mega companies have more flexibility and room for maneuver than even medium to large countries such as the UK. I think that the assumptions that gilts are both safe and stable is, quite frankly, old fashioned.
Oddly, never crossed my mind to wonder what a Selebian was. Just as it never crossed my mind to wonder what a kinabalu was until I was looking at a wikipedia list of the world's highest islands. I bet there's loads of interesting names out there I never wondered about. How disappointingly incurious of me.
Ah ... yes ... I just thought of a reason.
What really gets my goat are the people who choose to go by the name of historical figures, as if they gain some reflected glory in doing so. Such posters should be immediately banned, especially if the name comes from particularly obscure figures ...
Ahem.
There is something about Yorkshire though. The most intriguing anagramatic name I ever came across was Trebor E Ba Gum, which convinced me that the late Dictator and President of Zimbabwe was in fact a mint manufacturer from Pontefract in a former life.
Think about it.
“Afghanistan’s supreme leader has ordered judges to fully implement aspects of Islamic law that include public executions, stonings, floggings and the amputation of limbs for thieves, the Taliban’s chief spokesman said.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/14/afghanistan-supreme-leader-orders-full-implementation-of-sharia-law-taliban
It would appear the automatic voter registration can make quite a difference.
'tis the season for analysis that reaffirms one's worldview. Beware any post-mortem that suggests this election result was all turnout, or all persuasion. It was both, of course, but there are other issues here that I'll explain for anyone who appreciates a deep dive.
https://twitter.com/tbonier/status/1592144826807554049
What's your opinion of Reeves btw?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2022/11/13/jpmorgan-reveals-shock-cascade-bitcoin-price-prediction-after-stunning-ftx-meltdown/
...The researchers said they expect the latest crypto crisis—coming after a series of failures this year—could push the bitcoin price to lows of $13,000 due to a "cascade of margin calls" in the aftermath of the FTX collapse, pointing to bitcoin production costs that are currently around $15,000 per bitcoin...
Wut ?
The production cost is always going to be near the current price.
Imagine trying to explain this entire scenario to someone in the early 1980s
I thought free publicity was Musk's special genius.
Unrelatedly, that Forbes article is garbage.
Labour's task is not to fall into that trap and shape the narrative such that the current woes are the culmination of 12 soon to be 13 years of economic mismanagement including several years when Sunak himself was at the helm, and that the Conservatives solution now is to prescribe yet more of the same austerity medicine.
But it sniffs a bit. I really hope that they purchased the ads at the going rate...
Take over a rather rocky ship, remove much of the old staff from their posts, start instituting your half-baked ideas too quickly, chaos ensues, disaster beckons.
"Here's our great alternative ideas for xyz!"
"Oh do shut up, ffs, there's a pandemic on."
So, he played that as best he could - stayed calm, didn't irritate - whilst slowly but surely doing the groundwork to get a hearing when times normalized. Then, lucky for him, VERY lucky I agree, times didn't normalize, rather the Tories poured petrol on themselves and immolated. After which you can only eat what's on the plate in front of you - and he is.
The schools that were ~reformed at the same time in what was essentially the same process still exist.
Does anybody think politicians would be better at running the state than civil servants? I'm not on either of their sides. Just wondering. Politicians?
That was pure genius
Hunt's South West Surrey constituency is being split into two, making both new seats highly marginal for the Tories. He's not best pleased at the prospect. 'I need to understand the implications of the report, which are terrible for me personally,' he has said.
'After proudly representing Godalming, Farnham & Haslemere (and their surrounding villages) for more than 17 years, it looks like I will have to choose between two halves of a constituency that is basically being cut in two — a frankly impossible and heart-breaking choice. There is now a four-week consultation and I will not be rushing this particularly difficult decision.'"
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-11424285/ANDREW-PIERCE-Jeremy-Hunts-headache-Budget-cost-seat.html