CON polling better under Sunak but still way behind – politicalbetting.com

kinabalu said:

kle4 said:

kinabalu said:

Nigelb said:

kinabalu said:

Nigelb said:

Someone's feeling a bit sore.

Going forward, accounts engaged in parody must include “parody” in their name, not just in bio
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1590884973535711232

Not sure he quite gets the concept of parody.

Could usher in a refreshing new era where people put exactly what they're all about in their name so there can be no misunderrstandings.

"Comedian"
"Troll"
"Entertainer-cum-Philosopher"
"Serious Pundit"
etc

"Control freak billionaire with sense of humour failure"

Does seem a bit like that. Twitter needs its light side imo. Still, I was thinking of the positives of his idea to have an overt role description in the account name. Eg it would become Dan "Serious Pundit" Hodges. No longer possible to mistake him for anything else.

He already includes '"Worst political pundit in the West" in his description, albeit as something Greenwald apparently said about him.

Ah, touch of self-deprecating humour. That goes a long way in life. Unless you overdo it, then it becomes perversely smug.

Leon said:

SeaShantyIrish2 said:

Leon said:

Possibly quite important. This is Putin's favourite Russian philosopher


"Alexander Dugin directly blamed Putin for the retreat from Kherson. He stated that the power in Russia is almost autocratic, but if the tsar cannot save the people, then he will face the "king of the rains fate" (a man whose stomach was ritually torn open by his fellow tribesmen)"

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1591114586891194368?s=20&t=zsv7SZfUZ3ijJnL0TIpY4g

Calling Dugin a "philosopher" is akin to calling Trump a "statesman".

That's what Putin calls him. He thus referenced Dugin (and Dugin's daughter) in his notorious annexation speech

It may be significant that Dugin is turning on his leader

kinabalu said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

kinabalu said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Cookie said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

williamglenn said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Leon said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

Whether a deal has been done with Putin, or not, those scenes in Kherson are spellbinding. What is it about Liberation videos? They have the same power whether they come from France in 1944, or Ukraine in 2022

They must touch something primal and Freudian inside us. The beaten animal yearning to be free, the glorious overthrowing of the oppressor

Yes. And it puts much of what we worry about into perspective. 2nd May 1997 is perhaps our nearest equivalent in recent memory - but even to make such a comparison is absurd and slightly crass.

Very absurd and very crass

Yes. very crass. Actually offensive. For me, the closest comparison to the Kherson Liberation is Brexit Day, Friday 31st January, and the moment Boris won the GE in 2019, when we knew he would Ged Brexit Done

The hideous oppressor was expelled, and the tanks of free movement and the artillery of trade regulations fled across the Channel, like the soldiers across the Dnieper, and it was like having a baby as well

Even more absurdly crass. Only swiveleyed loons like you think the fools charter of Brexit is anything worth celebrating. "Ooo sovereinty sovereignty" we hear the brainwashed fuckwits cry. We already had our sovereignty you gullible thickheads.

I read your post yesterday about your Euroscepticism with some interest, but it makes your stridency about Brexit seem a bit artificial. Surely you must see arguments on both sides, even if on balance you favoured Remain or thought the disadvantages outweighed any advantages from pulling out?

If you're a William Hague-style Eurosceptic then you must think that the EU has done things and plans to do more things that we are better off steering clear of, but at the same time you are adamant that there are absolutely no benefits whatsoever from opting out of the whole lot. How can you be so sure that the line of what to opt in to was drawn in precisely the right place before 2016?

I am a right of centre pragmatist, though I must admit that my putdowns of the lunatic Brexit apologists may well make me seem like an EU enthusiast when I never have been such. I was not in favour of joining Euro, and not in favour of "ever closer union", the latter which I think is mythological, as the French in particular have zero intention of being absorbed into a full-on union with Germany. I find British EU-phobia (as opposed to Eurosceptism) to be a pernicious and dangerously stupid ideology.

Being part of an organisation whose explicit aims - Ever Closer Union - we are opposed to on the basis that we hope other members will share our opposition seems - well - a little trusting for my tastes.

It is meaningless nonsense and is seen as such by many pro-Europeans. The only people who bang on about it are the rabid Euro-federalists, who are in reality a minority, and British EU-phobes.

You need the political equivalent of the Hubble Telescope to see far enough into the future to detect a Federal Europe replacing the nation states.

Its already happening.

The states won't vanish, but neither have states in the USA. But the EU already has a federal currency, federal Central Bank, federal Parliament, federal Court and federal Commission.

The idea that "the French won't cease to be French" is an anti-Federalist argument can only be said by someone who has never met a Texan.

If you view the EU - now or in the foreseeable - as being remotely like the USA you're in a world I simply don't recognize. Which is fine. How's the weather?

rcs1000 said:

Will Schryver continues to believe that all is going swimmingly for the Russians:



You do have to admire his consistency.

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Cookie said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

williamglenn said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Leon said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

Whether a deal has been done with Putin, or not, those scenes in Kherson are spellbinding. What is it about Liberation videos? They have the same power whether they come from France in 1944, or Ukraine in 2022

They must touch something primal and Freudian inside us. The beaten animal yearning to be free, the glorious overthrowing of the oppressor

Yes. And it puts much of what we worry about into perspective. 2nd May 1997 is perhaps our nearest equivalent in recent memory - but even to make such a comparison is absurd and slightly crass.

Very absurd and very crass

Yes. very crass. Actually offensive. For me, the closest comparison to the Kherson Liberation is Brexit Day, Friday 31st January, and the moment Boris won the GE in 2019, when we knew he would Ged Brexit Done

The hideous oppressor was expelled, and the tanks of free movement and the artillery of trade regulations fled across the Channel, like the soldiers across the Dnieper, and it was like having a baby as well

Even more absurdly crass. Only swiveleyed loons like you think the fools charter of Brexit is anything worth celebrating. "Ooo sovereinty sovereignty" we hear the brainwashed fuckwits cry. We already had our sovereignty you gullible thickheads.

I read your post yesterday about your Euroscepticism with some interest, but it makes your stridency about Brexit seem a bit artificial. Surely you must see arguments on both sides, even if on balance you favoured Remain or thought the disadvantages outweighed any advantages from pulling out?

If you're a William Hague-style Eurosceptic then you must think that the EU has done things and plans to do more things that we are better off steering clear of, but at the same time you are adamant that there are absolutely no benefits whatsoever from opting out of the whole lot. How can you be so sure that the line of what to opt in to was drawn in precisely the right place before 2016?

I am a right of centre pragmatist, though I must admit that my putdowns of the lunatic Brexit apologists may well make me seem like an EU enthusiast when I never have been such. I was not in favour of joining Euro, and not in favour of "ever closer union", the latter which I think is mythological, as the French in particular have zero intention of being absorbed into a full-on union with Germany. I find British EU-phobia (as opposed to Eurosceptism) to be a pernicious and dangerously stupid ideology.

Being part of an organisation whose explicit aims - Ever Closer Union - we are opposed to on the basis that we hope other members will share our opposition seems - well - a little trusting for my tastes.

It is meaningless nonsense and is seen as such by many pro-Europeans. The only people who bang on about it are the rabid Euro-federalists, who are in reality a minority, and British EU-phobes.

You need the political equivalent of the Hubble Telescope to see far enough into the future to detect a Federal Europe replacing the nation states.

Most at the top in Brussels are ideologically committed to an EU superstate able to match the US and China and, in time, India.

The EU as Bart says already has its own Parliament, currency, court, executive commission and President. It will soon have its own army too and be a superstate in all but name.

It is certainly no longer just the trading block we joined the Common Market for. Even had we voted Remain in due course we would have ended up on the outer edge with non Eurozone Sweden, Denmark and Poland and Hungary while the rest moved full steam ahead to federal union.

rcs1000 said:

Alistair said:

Question:

Does Big Ron go and stump for Walker in the run-off?

Actually, that's not the interesting question.

The interesting question is, who will Walker accept help from?

Will he have rallies headlined by Former President Trump, or by Governor DeSantis?

Ratters said:

I wonder where Ukraine's next breakthrough attack will be? Kharkiv Oblast and Kherson west of the Dnipro river are now secure, which had been the focus for so long.

The length of the frontline seems to offer a few different options once the Ukraine army has regrouped from its latest victory.

Jim_Miller said:

Andy_JS asked: "Why is the USA pretty much the only Western country that takes weeks to count its votes, instead of hours or days?

First, let me repeat that most American states take days or even hours, so your question should be rephrased as follows: Why do some American states take weeks to count votes while most states count votes in days, or even hours?

And the answer is, usually, because the slow states have longer and more complex ballots, and use mail ballots for all, or a large fraction, of their ballots. Counting mail ballots takes longer, since, among other things, vote counters have to compare signatures, with the signatures on file.

(It's also my impression that few other nations allow write-in votes, which add still another layer of complexity to the counting.

BartholomewRoberts said:

Ratters said:

I wonder where Ukraine's next breakthrough attack will be? Kharkiv Oblast and Kherson west of the Dnipro river are now secure, which had been the focus for so long.

The length of the frontline seems to offer a few different options once the Ukraine army has regrouped from its latest victory.

What's interesting is that the breakthroughs have occurred on memorable dates. Kharkiv fell on the same date the Queen died, Kherson fell on Remembrance Day.

The way this is going, expect Crimea to be liberated on Easter Sunday.

Richard_Nabavi said:

HYUFD said:

[snip]

Even had we voted Remain in due course we would have ended up on the outer edge with non Eurozone Sweden, Denmark and Poland and Hungary while the rest moved full steam ahead to federal union.

Yes, exactly (except fuller union of the core won't be anything like at 'full steam ahead', more like a snail's pace with long periods of stasis, if it ever happens at all). We'd have had the best of all possible positions: all the advantages of full EU membership, without the excessive bits. It is such an extraordinary tragedy that we, of our own volition, threw it away. As I predicted at the time, we'll spend at least a decade, perhaps longer, painfully trying to claw back some of the lost ground, but we'll never get back to such a favourable position as we had.

Roger said:

Interesting but more interesting is how decisions by Cameron May Johnson and Truss have done more damage to this country than any consecutive group of Prime Ministers in history. They have all but destroyed it. In every case they put personal aggrandisement above the good of the country. Cameron was slightly less culpable and Johnson slightly more but history will judge them equally. The sooner the country is shot of the whole Party -which the surely will-the sooner the reconstruction can start.

Item 1. rejoining the EU. On our knees if necessary

CarlottaVance said:

Roger said:

Sean_F said:

Roger said:

Interesting but more interesting is how decisions by Cameron May Johnson and Truss have done more damage to this country than any consecutive group of Prime Ministers in history. They have all but destroyed it. In every case they put personal aggrandisement above the good of the country. Cameron was slightly less culpable and Johnson slightly more but history will judge them equally. The sooner the country is shot of the whole Party -which the surely will-the sooner the reconstruction can start.

Item 1. rejoining the EU. On our knees if necessary

How has the country been "all but destroyed?"

"The worst economic performance since records began'. BBC 5 O'Clock News.

Supply chains 'Thanks to Brexit' the worst ever and Covid is NOT the major cause.

FYI, here's a chart of UK and German #GDP, updated to include today's Q3 data for the UK.

Since Q1 2016 (the quarter before the vote to leave the EU), the UK economy has grown by around 6.7% and the German economy by about 6.2%.

#BrexitReality

https://twitter.com/julianHjessop/status/1591036294494576640

kle4 said:

Andy_JS said:

CNN has a list of the 26 House seats still to be decided.

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2022/results/house?election-data-id=2022-HG&election-painting-mode=projection&filter-key-races=false&filter-flipped=false

Boebert definitely just scraping home as predicted earlier I see. I wonder if a close shave would lead to some self reflection.

That seat in Washington where the former incumbent was primaried out for voting to impeach Trump looks like a Dem gain.

logical_song said:

Andy_JS said:

CNN has a list of the 26 House seats still to be decided.

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2022/results/house?election-data-id=2022-HG&election-painting-mode=projection&filter-key-races=false&filter-flipped=false

Looking at the results in so far for those House seats, it's just amazing how many are within 2 or 3%.

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

kinabalu said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Cookie said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

williamglenn said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Leon said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

Whether a deal has been done with Putin, or not, those scenes in Kherson are spellbinding. What is it about Liberation videos? They have the same power whether they come from France in 1944, or Ukraine in 2022

They must touch something primal and Freudian inside us. The beaten animal yearning to be free, the glorious overthrowing of the oppressor

Yes. And it puts much of what we worry about into perspective. 2nd May 1997 is perhaps our nearest equivalent in recent memory - but even to make such a comparison is absurd and slightly crass.

Very absurd and very crass

Yes. very crass. Actually offensive. For me, the closest comparison to the Kherson Liberation is Brexit Day, Friday 31st January, and the moment Boris won the GE in 2019, when we knew he would Ged Brexit Done

The hideous oppressor was expelled, and the tanks of free movement and the artillery of trade regulations fled across the Channel, like the soldiers across the Dnieper, and it was like having a baby as well

Even more absurdly crass. Only swiveleyed loons like you think the fools charter of Brexit is anything worth celebrating. "Ooo sovereinty sovereignty" we hear the brainwashed fuckwits cry. We already had our sovereignty you gullible thickheads.

I read your post yesterday about your Euroscepticism with some interest, but it makes your stridency about Brexit seem a bit artificial. Surely you must see arguments on both sides, even if on balance you favoured Remain or thought the disadvantages outweighed any advantages from pulling out?

If you're a William Hague-style Eurosceptic then you must think that the EU has done things and plans to do more things that we are better off steering clear of, but at the same time you are adamant that there are absolutely no benefits whatsoever from opting out of the whole lot. How can you be so sure that the line of what to opt in to was drawn in precisely the right place before 2016?

I am a right of centre pragmatist, though I must admit that my putdowns of the lunatic Brexit apologists may well make me seem like an EU enthusiast when I never have been such. I was not in favour of joining Euro, and not in favour of "ever closer union", the latter which I think is mythological, as the French in particular have zero intention of being absorbed into a full-on union with Germany. I find British EU-phobia (as opposed to Eurosceptism) to be a pernicious and dangerously stupid ideology.

Being part of an organisation whose explicit aims - Ever Closer Union - we are opposed to on the basis that we hope other members will share our opposition seems - well - a little trusting for my tastes.

It is meaningless nonsense and is seen as such by many pro-Europeans. The only people who bang on about it are the rabid Euro-federalists, who are in reality a minority, and British EU-phobes.

You need the political equivalent of the Hubble Telescope to see far enough into the future to detect a Federal Europe replacing the nation states.

Most at the top in Brussels are ideologically committed to an EU superstate able to match the US and China and, in time, India.

The EU as Bart says already has its own Parliament, currency, court, executive commission and President. It will soon have its own army too and be a superstate in all but name.

It is certainly no longer just the trading block we joined the Common Market for. Even had we voted Remain in due course we would have ended up on the outer edge with non Eurozone Sweden, Denmark and Poland and Hungary while the rest moved full steam ahead to federal union.

Impossible to predict and an odd reason to bail out now imo. But fwiw - given you seem to buy it - was that the future you were hoping for when you voted Remain then? Us on the outer edge of a federal superstate? Or do now you prefer this - ie being outside even the outer edge? Like a kind of Pluto. I'd rather be back where were, I must say. Third rock from the sun after Germany and France.

Alistair said:

Nigelb said:

Someone else even more sore.

Trump unloading on DeSantis over on Truth Social.
https://twitter.com/kyledcheney/status/1590844069118607364

Love the "then I sent in the Feds to steal the election for Ron" bit in the middle there.

kle4 said:

I see the good folk of Nevada still get the option to vote 'None of these candidates' in their races. I remember hearing about it being legally challenged around a decade ago and obviously must have failed.

Wiki says on a couple of occasions 'none of these candidates' has topped party primaries, with the result that the second place actual human got the nod.

DougSeal said:

My Wife, a newly minted US-UK dual national, is now registered to vote in both jurisdictions. I fear for the future.

rcs1000 said:

Alistair said:

Question:

Does Big Ron go and stump for Walker in the run-off?

Actually, that's not the interesting question.

The interesting question is, who will Walker accept help from?

Will he have rallies headlined by Former President Trump, or by Governor DeSantis?

Peter_the_Punter said:

kle4 said:

Andy_JS said:

CNN has a list of the 26 House seats still to be decided.

https://edition.cnn.com/election/2022/results/house?election-data-id=2022-HG&election-painting-mode=projection&filter-key-races=false&filter-flipped=false

Boebert definitely just scraping home as predicted earlier I see. I wonder if a close shave would lead to some self reflection.

That seat in Washington where the former incumbent was primaried out for voting to impeach Trump looks like a Dem gain.

Probably good for the Dems that Boebert gets elected so that voters are reminded regularly of the chickenbrains in the GOP ranks.

Roger said:

CarlottaVance said:

Roger said:

Sean_F said:

Roger said:

Interesting but more interesting is how decisions by Cameron May Johnson and Truss have done more damage to this country than any consecutive group of Prime Ministers in history. They have all but destroyed it. In every case they put personal aggrandisement above the good of the country. Cameron was slightly less culpable and Johnson slightly more but history will judge them equally. The sooner the country is shot of the whole Party -which the surely will-the sooner the reconstruction can start.

Item 1. rejoining the EU. On our knees if necessary

How has the country been "all but destroyed?"

"The worst economic performance since records began'. BBC 5 O'Clock News.

Supply chains 'Thanks to Brexit' the worst ever and Covid is NOT the major cause.

FYI, here's a chart of UK and German #GDP, updated to include today's Q3 data for the UK.

Since Q1 2016 (the quarter before the vote to leave the EU), the UK economy has grown by around 6.7% and the German economy by about 6.2%.

#BrexitReality

https://twitter.com/julianHjessop/status/1591036294494576640

Watch the Six o'clock news. We are the bottom of the G7 and the only one with deficit and if you compare the size of our economy with its pre Brexit size it has reduced significantly more than the other six. The cause is almost certainly Brexit according to Faisal Islam

Richard_Nabavi said:

Ratters said:

I wonder where Ukraine's next breakthrough attack will be? Kharkiv Oblast and Kherson west of the Dnipro river are now secure, which had been the focus for so long.

The length of the frontline seems to offer a few different options once the Ukraine army has regrouped from its latest victory.

I'd be very cautious on the prospects for the next few months, if not longer. In the South the Russian are now digging in behind a stonking great river barrier, and it's very hard to see how the Ukrainians can dislodge them from that and cross the Dnipro. Meanwhile the Russians may simply revert to blasting the hell out of the civilian population, including Kherson itself (although there'd be a certain irony in them pulverising what they claim is part of Russia).

In the East, the Ukrainians might have more success, but it will be very tough going and in winter there's little cover. Probably not much will change there over the winter, although Ukraine has surprised us before.

In the Spring things may develop more quickly, but I don't think anyone can really be too confident of how this is going to turn out.

turbotubbs said:

Leon said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Leon said:

If this war ends soon (God willing) what are relations going to be like between Russia and Ukraine?

Hateful, I imagine. Ukrainians will HATE Russia and Russians for decades, maybe generations. So another byproduct of Putin's Crazy War has been to turn a neighbouring country with often warm, fraternal feelings towards Russia into a sworn enemy, of 40 million people, who will loathe Russia with every atom

Genius

Decades, generations, or maybe just a couple of years. Look at Germany, France and the low countries after the war. We humans have a remarkable capacity to get over dreadful experiences.

Yes, indeed, but as I have argued before, it was much easier to forgive Germany because Germany was utterly vanquished, its cities laid to waste, its regime brutally toppled, its women raped by the Red Army, and its people left starving (those that didn't die in firestorms). It is easier to forgive an enemy that has been bludgeoned into total submission

Post-war Russia will not be like that. Russia will seem largely untouched, even as Ukraine has to rebuild half of its cities and all of its infrastructure. So the hateful resentment will, I suggest, fester and ferment

You might ask the Dutch if they forgave Germany easily and quickly.

williamglenn said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Ratters said:

I wonder where Ukraine's next breakthrough attack will be? Kharkiv Oblast and Kherson west of the Dnipro river are now secure, which had been the focus for so long.

The length of the frontline seems to offer a few different options once the Ukraine army has regrouped from its latest victory.

I'd be very cautious on the prospects for the next few months, if not longer. In the South the Russian are now digging in behind a stonking great river barrier, and it's very hard to see how the Ukrainians can dislodge them from that and cross the Dnipro. Meanwhile the Russians may simply revert to blasting the hell out of the civilian population, including Kherson itself (although there'd be a certain irony in them pulverising what they claim is part of Russia).

In the East, the Ukrainians might have more success, but it will be very tough going and in winter there's little cover. Probably not much will change there over the winter, although Ukraine has surprised us before.

In the Spring things may develop more quickly, but I don't think anyone can really be too confident of how this is going to turn out.

The logical next move might be to split the Russian-controlled territories in two by attacking the left bank from the north and heading for the Sea of Azov.

Casino_Royale said:

kinabalu said:

Casino_Royale said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

Whether a deal has been done with Putin, or not, those scenes in Kherson are spellbinding. What is it about Liberation videos? They have the same power whether they come from France in 1944, or Ukraine in 2022

They must touch something primal and Freudian inside us. The beaten animal yearning to be free, the glorious overthrowing of the oppressor

Yes. And it puts much of what we worry about into perspective. 2nd May 1997 is perhaps our nearest equivalent in recent memory - but even to make such a comparison is absurd and slightly crass.

This is a classic example of the opinions are like arseholes genre.

Stick to the betting.

Ok, Elon, I will put JOKE at the front of such comments in future.

(that House bet has bailed you out then, I note)

I've got my losses down to £95 (they were shocking at one point).

Will do pretty well on the House but my Senate bets have totally sunk me, and there's no way out...

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

Casino_Royale said:

Roger said:

CarlottaVance said:

Roger said:

Sean_F said:

Roger said:

Interesting but more interesting is how decisions by Cameron May Johnson and Truss have done more damage to this country than any consecutive group of Prime Ministers in history. They have all but destroyed it. In every case they put personal aggrandisement above the good of the country. Cameron was slightly less culpable and Johnson slightly more but history will judge them equally. The sooner the country is shot of the whole Party -which the surely will-the sooner the reconstruction can start.

Item 1. rejoining the EU. On our knees if necessary

How has the country been "all but destroyed?"

"The worst economic performance since records began'. BBC 5 O'Clock News.

Supply chains 'Thanks to Brexit' the worst ever and Covid is NOT the major cause.

FYI, here's a chart of UK and German #GDP, updated to include today's Q3 data for the UK.

Since Q1 2016 (the quarter before the vote to leave the EU), the UK economy has grown by around 6.7% and the German economy by about 6.2%.

#BrexitReality

https://twitter.com/julianHjessop/status/1591036294494576640

Watch the Six o'clock news. We are the bottom of the G7 and the only one with deficit and if you compare the size of our economy with its pre Brexit size it has reduced significantly more than the other six. The cause is almost certainly Brexit according to Faisal Islam

"according to Faisal Islam"

He definitely wasn't listening because the idea that the UK is the only G7 nation with a deficit is laughable. Only Germany has got lower national debt and a lower deficit as a proportion of GDP than we do trailing 12 months. Even that looks like it will change in the next 5 years as UK debt continues to fall as a proportion of GDP.

Canada beats us too, don't they?

Richard_Nabavi said:

Ratters said:

I wonder where Ukraine's next breakthrough attack will be? Kharkiv Oblast and Kherson west of the Dnipro river are now secure, which had been the focus for so long.

The length of the frontline seems to offer a few different options once the Ukraine army has regrouped from its latest victory.

I'd be very cautious on the prospects for the next few months, if not longer. In the South the Russian are now digging in behind a stonking great river barrier, and it's very hard to see how the Ukrainians can dislodge them from that and cross the Dnipro. Meanwhile the Russians may simply revert to blasting the hell out of the civilian population, including Kherson itself (although there'd be a certain irony in them pulverising what they claim is part of Russia).

In the East, the Ukrainians might have more success, but it will be very tough going and in winter there's little cover. Probably not much will change there over the winter, although Ukraine has surprised us before.

In the spring things may develop more quickly, but I don't think anyone can really be too confident of how this is going to turn out.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Ratters said:

I wonder where Ukraine's next breakthrough attack will be? Kharkiv Oblast and Kherson west of the Dnipro river are now secure, which had been the focus for so long.

The length of the frontline seems to offer a few different options once the Ukraine army has regrouped from its latest victory.

I'd be very cautious on the prospects for the next few months, if not longer. In the South the Russian are now digging in behind a stonking great river barrier, and it's very hard to see how the Ukrainians can dislodge them from that and cross the Dnipro. Meanwhile the Russians may simply revert to blasting the hell out of the civilian population, including Kherson itself (although there'd be a certain irony in them pulverising what they claim is part of Russia).

In the East, the Ukrainians might have more success, but it will be very tough going and in winter there's little cover. Probably not much will change there over the winter, although Ukraine has surprised us before.

In the spring things may develop more quickly, but I don't think anyone can really be too confident of how this is going to turn out.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Ratters said:

I wonder where Ukraine's next breakthrough attack will be? Kharkiv Oblast and Kherson west of the Dnipro river are now secure, which had been the focus for so long.

The length of the frontline seems to offer a few different options once the Ukraine army has regrouped from its latest victory.

I'd be very cautious on the prospects for the next few months, if not longer. In the South the Russian are now digging in behind a stonking great river barrier, and it's very hard to see how the Ukrainians can dislodge them from that and cross the Dnipro. Meanwhile the Russians may simply revert to blasting the hell out of the civilian population, including Kherson itself (although there'd be a certain irony in them pulverising what they claim is part of Russia).

In the East, the Ukrainians might have more success, but it will be very tough going and in winter there's little cover. Probably not much will change there over the winter, although Ukraine has surprised us before.

In the spring things may develop more quickly, but I don't think anyone can really be too confident of how this is going to turn out.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Ratters said:

I wonder where Ukraine's next breakthrough attack will be? Kharkiv Oblast and Kherson west of the Dnipro river are now secure, which had been the focus for so long.

The length of the frontline seems to offer a few different options once the Ukraine army has regrouped from its latest victory.

I'd be very cautious on the prospects for the next few months, if not longer. In the South the Russian are now digging in behind a stonking great river barrier, and it's very hard to see how the Ukrainians can dislodge them from that and cross the Dnipro...

MarqueeMark said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

Alistair said:

Turns out not giving Putin what he wanted lead to the liberation of Kherson and not nuclear holocaust.

I wonder how long we are back to "must given Putin what he wants".

The current story seems to be that he is getting what he wants. If this does turn into a full blown peace deal and includes Crimea remaining Russian-controlled, I look forward to the fuming denunciations of Biden that will no doubt ensue from PB's 'no quarter' armchair warrior contingent.

On what planet is Putin "getting what he wants"?

He would have to be into extreme S&M with no safe words to see the past six months as anything he could ever want.

Richard_Nabavi said:

HYUFD said:

[snip]

Even had we voted Remain in due course we would have ended up on the outer edge with non Eurozone Sweden, Denmark and Poland and Hungary while the rest moved full steam ahead to federal union.

Yes, exactly (except fuller union of the core won't be anything like at 'full steam ahead', more like a snail's pace with long periods of stasis, if it ever happens at all). We'd have had the best of all possible positions: all the advantages of full EU membership, without the excessive bits. It is such an extraordinary tragedy that we, of our own volition, threw it away. As I predicted at the time, we'll spend at least a decade, perhaps longer, painfully trying to claw back some of the lost ground, but we'll never get back to such a favourable position as we had.

Casino_Royale said:

Nigelb said:

Casino_Royale said:

kinabalu said:

Casino_Royale said:

kinabalu said:

Leon said:

Whether a deal has been done with Putin, or not, those scenes in Kherson are spellbinding. What is it about Liberation videos? They have the same power whether they come from France in 1944, or Ukraine in 2022

They must touch something primal and Freudian inside us. The beaten animal yearning to be free, the glorious overthrowing of the oppressor

Yes. And it puts much of what we worry about into perspective. 2nd May 1997 is perhaps our nearest equivalent in recent memory - but even to make such a comparison is absurd and slightly crass.

This is a classic example of the opinions are like arseholes genre.

Stick to the betting.

Ok, Elon, I will put JOKE at the front of such comments in future.

(that House bet has bailed you out then, I note)

I've got my losses down to £95 (they were shocking at one point).

Will do pretty well on the House but my Senate bets have totally sunk me, and there's no way out...

‘They completely f--ked up’: How the GOP lost its grip on the Senate majority
Democrats are on the doorstep of control, despite a series of obstacles. And they couldn’t have done it without Republicans blowing winnable races.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/11/republicans-senate-majority-00066009

This wasn’t entirely unpredictable before the vote.
(Though I’ll admit I was pretty relieved with the way a couple of the races turned out.)

I'm very annoyed at myself.

This only happened because I got arrogant and flipped my positions as the very earliest results came in (which mean nothing in America).

I'd actually laid Republican Majority in the Senate to start with, and had a good position.

Richard_Tyndall said:

turbotubbs said:

Leon said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Leon said:

If this war ends soon (God willing) what are relations going to be like between Russia and Ukraine?

Hateful, I imagine. Ukrainians will HATE Russia and Russians for decades, maybe generations. So another byproduct of Putin's Crazy War has been to turn a neighbouring country with often warm, fraternal feelings towards Russia into a sworn enemy, of 40 million people, who will loathe Russia with every atom

Genius

Decades, generations, or maybe just a couple of years. Look at Germany, France and the low countries after the war. We humans have a remarkable capacity to get over dreadful experiences.

Yes, indeed, but as I have argued before, it was much easier to forgive Germany because Germany was utterly vanquished, its cities laid to waste, its regime brutally toppled, its women raped by the Red Army, and its people left starving (those that didn't die in firestorms). It is easier to forgive an enemy that has been bludgeoned into total submission

Post-war Russia will not be like that. Russia will seem largely untouched, even as Ukraine has to rebuild half of its cities and all of its infrastructure. So the hateful resentment will, I suggest, fester and ferment

You might ask the Dutch if they forgave Germany easily and quickly.

After the IRA started targeting British forces and families in Germany in the early 80s, the MOD advised all British families to switch their numberplates from British to German to make it more difficult for them to be identified.

One interesting side effect of this was that after the switch, when the British drove their cars over the border into the Netherlands at the weekend, they would come back to find they had been keyed or smashed up. It never happened to their cars when they had British plates.

The Dutch did not quickly or easily forget or forgive the Germans.

MaxPB said:

rcs1000 said:

MaxPB said:

Casino_Royale said:

Roger said:

CarlottaVance said:

Roger said:

Sean_F said:

Roger said:

Interesting but more interesting is how decisions by Cameron May Johnson and Truss have done more damage to this country than any consecutive group of Prime Ministers in history. They have all but destroyed it. In every case they put personal aggrandisement above the good of the country. Cameron was slightly less culpable and Johnson slightly more but history will judge them equally. The sooner the country is shot of the whole Party -which the surely will-the sooner the reconstruction can start.

Item 1. rejoining the EU. On our knees if necessary

How has the country been "all but destroyed?"

"The worst economic performance since records began'. BBC 5 O'Clock News.

Supply chains 'Thanks to Brexit' the worst ever and Covid is NOT the major cause.

FYI, here's a chart of UK and German #GDP, updated to include today's Q3 data for the UK.

Since Q1 2016 (the quarter before the vote to leave the EU), the UK economy has grown by around 6.7% and the German economy by about 6.2%.

#BrexitReality

https://twitter.com/julianHjessop/status/1591036294494576640

Watch the Six o'clock news. We are the bottom of the G7 and the only one with deficit and if you compare the size of our economy with its pre Brexit size it has reduced significantly more than the other six. The cause is almost certainly Brexit according to Faisal Islam

"according to Faisal Islam"

He definitely wasn't listening because the idea that the UK is the only G7 nation with a deficit is laughable. Only Germany has got lower national debt and a lower deficit as a proportion of GDP than we do trailing 12 months. Even that looks like it will change in the next 5 years as UK debt continues to fall as a proportion of GDP.

Canada beats us too, don't they?

Deficit maybe, don't think so on debt. Alas, my computer is now off until Monday so we'll never know.

Leon said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

HYUFD said:

[snip]

Even had we voted Remain in due course we would have ended up on the outer edge with non Eurozone Sweden, Denmark and Poland and Hungary while the rest moved full steam ahead to federal union.

Yes, exactly (except fuller union of the core won't be anything like at 'full steam ahead', more like a snail's pace with long periods of stasis, if it ever happens at all). We'd have had the best of all possible positions: all the advantages of full EU membership, without the excessive bits. It is such an extraordinary tragedy that we, of our own volition, threw it away. As I predicted at the time, we'll spend at least a decade, perhaps longer, painfully trying to claw back some of the lost ground, but we'll never get back to such a favourable position as we had.

And all of it easily avoided if the arrogant clueless europhiles had only given the British people a vote on earlier moments of integration - as they so often promised, yet failed to do

This constant fraudulence led inexorably to the fatal rupture…

MaxPB said:

Pagan2 said:

Roger is a mysogynist as he supports Roman Polanksi who sodomized a 15 year old girl and dismisses it as hardly relevant

Roger is a racist as he dismisses tunisians as not real people

Waiting for his homophobia to surface next

He rails against people from hartlepool but I suspect he would disgust most people in hartlepool because of his views

What was the bible quote....remove the beam from your own eye first.

He's also lauded "vibrant Italy" a lot in the past, the same Italy that has just elected a nationalist government with the leading party formed out of the ashes of the Italian fascist party. He's gone quiet about "vibrant Italy" recently though.

kamski said:

Alistair said:

Hey, how much harm could the whole fake blue tick thing do? How about 10 or so bilion dollars billion dollars.

https://twitter.com/rafaelshimunov/status/1591133819918114816?t=q1KCyh03qvRouLithRkD3w&s=19

Investors are worried Americans might get cheaper insulin?

Roger said:

MaxPB said:

Pagan2 said:

Roger is a mysogynist as he supports Roman Polanksi who sodomized a 15 year old girl and dismisses it as hardly relevant

Roger is a racist as he dismisses tunisians as not real people

Waiting for his homophobia to surface next

He rails against people from hartlepool but I suspect he would disgust most people in hartlepool because of his views

What was the bible quote....remove the beam from your own eye first.

He's also lauded "vibrant Italy" a lot in the past, the same Italy that has just elected a nationalist government with the leading party formed out of the ashes of the Italian fascist party. He's gone quiet about "vibrant Italy" recently though.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-63596773