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CON polling better under Sunak but still way behind – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,135
edited November 2022 in General
imageCON polling better under Sunak but still way behind – politicalbetting.com

Looking at the Wikipedia polling table that have been three main phases since Johnson left office in September.

Read the full story here

«1345678

Comments

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,981
    First!
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    2nd like rishi
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,417
    3rd rate Russian army, chased out of Kherson.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,199
    edited November 2022
    A little tasteless:

    https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=10167401522105657&set=a.10150218951035657

    It's like Justin Bieber taking selfies at Auschwitz.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,134
    Europa League.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,889
    One reason that it might is the leader ratings that we're always told to look at.



    The really striking thing here is the difference between opinions of the person (favourable/unfavourable) and opnions of how well he's doing his job (approve/disapprove and satisfied/dissatisfied).
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,805
    I don’t expect Rishi to improve Tory fortunes that much in the short term. It would have been too much to expect that he was going to enjoy a dramatic boost given the disaster of the Truss era.

    The key thing to look for is if the recovery starts to take on greater shape in the spring and through to summer 2023. If he is getting the Tories back to consistently polling in the low 30s by then then he has a base to try and get a respectable GE performance out of it. If the polls remain stubbornly low into 2023 though, I think he’s going to be facing a landslide.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,354
    Latest popular vote figures for the House:

    GOP 52.1%
    Dem 46.4%

    https://www.cookpolitical.com/charts/house-charts/national-house-vote-tracker/2022
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Interesting story:

    Vladimir Putin has been offered surrender terms by the West, a respected Russian policy expert said today, as Moscow's troops were forced to withdraw from the city of Kherson in yet another humiliating defeat.

    Professor Valery Solovey, formerly at Moscow's prestigious Institute of International Relations and who claims to have connections in the Kremlin, said the surrender would see Russia give up all territory in Ukraine with the exception of Crimea which would become a demilitarized zone and its status not discussed again until 2029.

    In return, Putin and his cronies would avoid criminal charges over the war and be allowed to remain in power, Solovey claimed. He said the proposal had been discussed between Kyiv and its Western allies before being presented to Putin's inner circle - who had reacted positively to the idea.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11417563/Putin-offered-surrender-terms-West-loses-control-Kherson.html

    Although why anyone would trust Russia......
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,805
    edited November 2022
    Every US election, I warn myself about how long it takes for some results to be counted.

    Every US election, I lose my patience by around this time after the vote and wonder how the hell they can count so slowly.
  • mr-claypolemr-claypole Posts: 218
    expect a drip drip of Raab stories next...
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,976
    edited November 2022
    Sandpit said:

    3rd rate Russian army, chased out of Kherson.

    It's better than that - some of their best units are retreating. Hopefully Ukrainian artillery can turn it into a rout by sinking the ferries as the Orcs flee across the river.

    Slava Ukraini
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,199
    Andy_JS said:

    Latest popular vote figures for the House:

    GOP 52.1%
    Dem 46.4%

    https://www.cookpolitical.com/charts/house-charts/national-house-vote-tracker/2022

    That will narrow, but it does look as if the Republicans got too many votes in the wrong places (and of course, Democrats are just as adept at gerrymandering as the Republicans are).
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,739
    CarlottaVance said:

    Interesting story:

    Vladimir Putin has been offered surrender terms by the West, a respected Russian policy expert said today, as Moscow's troops were forced to withdraw from the city of Kherson in yet another humiliating defeat.

    Professor Valery Solovey, formerly at Moscow's prestigious Institute of International Relations and who claims to have connections in the Kremlin, said the surrender would see Russia give up all territory in Ukraine with the exception of Crimea which would become a demilitarized zone and its status not discussed again until 2029.

    In return, Putin and his cronies would avoid criminal charges over the war and be allowed to remain in power, Solovey claimed. He said the proposal had been discussed between Kyiv and its Western allies before being presented to Putin's inner circle - who had reacted positively to the idea.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11417563/Putin-offered-surrender-terms-West-loses-control-Kherson.html

    Although why anyone would trust Russia......

    Funny idea that it would be in the gift of any foreign power to offer that Putin should remain in power.

    The Russian people may have very different ideas.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,297
    CarlottaVance said:

    Interesting story:

    Vladimir Putin has been offered surrender terms by the West, a respected Russian policy expert said today, as Moscow's troops were forced to withdraw from the city of Kherson in yet another humiliating defeat.

    Professor Valery Solovey, formerly at Moscow's prestigious Institute of International Relations and who claims to have connections in the Kremlin, said the surrender would see Russia give up all territory in Ukraine with the exception of Crimea which would become a demilitarized zone and its status not discussed again until 2029.

    In return, Putin and his cronies would avoid criminal charges over the war and be allowed to remain in power, Solovey claimed. He said the proposal had been discussed between Kyiv and its Western allies before being presented to Putin's inner circle - who had reacted positively to the idea.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11417563/Putin-offered-surrender-terms-West-loses-control-Kherson.html

    Although why anyone would trust Russia......

    This only works if part of the agreement is that Ukraine can join any Western (or other international) organisations it wishes to without Russian interference. Ukraine ending up as part of NATO as a direct result of Russian aggression would be a rather more satisfying outcome to all of this.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,940
    edited November 2022
    numbertwelve said:

    Every US election, I warn myself about how long it takes for some results to be counted.

    Every US election, I lose my patience by around this time after the vote and wonder how the hell they can count so slowly.

    One legitimate point is all the other stuff on the massive ballot papers and late later arriving ballots.

    One ridiculous point is the need to be accurate and get it right, since that doesn't require slow counting, unless we're to believe anywhere that has counted in less than a week is inaccurate, including other areas of the USA which have been close.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Sean_F said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Latest popular vote figures for the House:

    GOP 52.1%
    Dem 46.4%

    https://www.cookpolitical.com/charts/house-charts/national-house-vote-tracker/2022

    That will narrow, but it does look as if the Republicans got too many votes in the wrong places (and of course, Democrats are just as adept at gerrymandering as the Republicans are).
    If the Dems were adept at gerrymandering they would be favourites to take the House at the moment.

    The NY debacle is a total debacle.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,354
    "LAB: 49% (-2)
    CON: 26% (-1)
    RFM: 9% (+3)
    LDM: 7% (=)
    GRN: 5% (+2)
    SNP: 3% (-1)

    Via
    @Omnisis
    , 10-11 Nov.
    Changes w/ 3-4 Nov."

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1591076228827860992
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,841
    Whether a deal has been done with Putin, or not, those scenes in Kherson are spellbinding. What is it about Liberation videos? They have the same power whether they come from France in 1944, or Ukraine in 2022

    They must touch something primal and Freudian inside us. The beaten animal yearning to be free, the glorious overthrowing of the oppressor
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,940
    Alistair said:

    Sean_F said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Latest popular vote figures for the House:

    GOP 52.1%
    Dem 46.4%

    https://www.cookpolitical.com/charts/house-charts/national-house-vote-tracker/2022

    That will narrow, but it does look as if the Republicans got too many votes in the wrong places (and of course, Democrats are just as adept at gerrymandering as the Republicans are).
    If the Dems were adept at gerrymandering they would be favourites to take the House at the moment.

    The NY debacle is a total debacle.
    Being less good at cheating, in one state at least, may have hit them but is hard to get outraged about even with the result.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,976
    Chris said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Interesting story:

    Vladimir Putin has been offered surrender terms by the West, a respected Russian policy expert said today, as Moscow's troops were forced to withdraw from the city of Kherson in yet another humiliating defeat.

    Professor Valery Solovey, formerly at Moscow's prestigious Institute of International Relations and who claims to have connections in the Kremlin, said the surrender would see Russia give up all territory in Ukraine with the exception of Crimea which would become a demilitarized zone and its status not discussed again until 2029.

    In return, Putin and his cronies would avoid criminal charges over the war and be allowed to remain in power, Solovey claimed. He said the proposal had been discussed between Kyiv and its Western allies before being presented to Putin's inner circle - who had reacted positively to the idea.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11417563/Putin-offered-surrender-terms-West-loses-control-Kherson.html

    Although why anyone would trust Russia......

    Funny idea that it would be in the gift of any foreign power to offer that Putin should remain in power.

    The Russian people may have very different ideas.
    Amusing, though, given that Putin started this war to overthrow Zelensky and his government and maybe murder him. Sauce for the goose...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,445
    Andy_JS said:

    "LAB: 49% (-2)
    CON: 26% (-1)
    RFM: 9% (+3)
    LDM: 7% (=)
    GRN: 5% (+2)
    SNP: 3% (-1)

    Via
    @Omnisis
    , 10-11 Nov.
    Changes w/ 3-4 Nov."

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1591076228827860992

    Ref on 9% now just 3% below UKIP's 2015 score.

    Sunak still doing better than Truss overall but leaking to RefUK more than her
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,940
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Interesting story:

    Vladimir Putin has been offered surrender terms by the West, a respected Russian policy expert said today, as Moscow's troops were forced to withdraw from the city of Kherson in yet another humiliating defeat.

    Professor Valery Solovey, formerly at Moscow's prestigious Institute of International Relations and who claims to have connections in the Kremlin, said the surrender would see Russia give up all territory in Ukraine with the exception of Crimea which would become a demilitarized zone and its status not discussed again until 2029.

    In return, Putin and his cronies would avoid criminal charges over the war and be allowed to remain in power, Solovey claimed. He said the proposal had been discussed between Kyiv and its Western allies before being presented to Putin's inner circle - who had reacted positively to the idea.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11417563/Putin-offered-surrender-terms-West-loses-control-Kherson.html

    Although why anyone would trust Russia......

    This only works if part of the agreement is that Ukraine can join any Western (or other international) organisations it wishes to without Russian interference. Ukraine ending up as part of NATO as a direct result of Russian aggression would be a rather more satisfying outcome to all of this.
    Neutrality, even if agreed officially, would be a clear nonsense anyway. It's not neutrality if you are not allowed to join something under threat of invasion for not complying.

    Still can't see NATO happening unless all Ukraine liberated though.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,940
    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "LAB: 49% (-2)
    CON: 26% (-1)
    RFM: 9% (+3)
    LDM: 7% (=)
    GRN: 5% (+2)
    SNP: 3% (-1)

    Via
    @Omnisis
    , 10-11 Nov.
    Changes w/ 3-4 Nov."

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1591076228827860992

    Ref on 9% now just 3% below UKIP's 2015 score.

    Sunak still doing better than Truss overall but leaking to RefUK more than her
    Even though he's further to the right than Boris and worked with all Boris's policies. So it's pretty irrational.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,391
    Chris said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Interesting story:

    Vladimir Putin has been offered surrender terms by the West, a respected Russian policy expert said today, as Moscow's troops were forced to withdraw from the city of Kherson in yet another humiliating defeat.

    Professor Valery Solovey, formerly at Moscow's prestigious Institute of International Relations and who claims to have connections in the Kremlin, said the surrender would see Russia give up all territory in Ukraine with the exception of Crimea which would become a demilitarized zone and its status not discussed again until 2029.

    In return, Putin and his cronies would avoid criminal charges over the war and be allowed to remain in power, Solovey claimed. He said the proposal had been discussed between Kyiv and its Western allies before being presented to Putin's inner circle - who had reacted positively to the idea.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11417563/Putin-offered-surrender-terms-West-loses-control-Kherson.html

    Although why anyone would trust Russia......

    Funny idea that it would be in the gift of any foreign power to offer that Putin should remain in power.

    The Russian people may have very different ideas.
    In Putin's mind the threat may come from a Western-backed colour revolution, so it might still work as a carrot even if it isn't really up to outside forces.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,445
    Andy_JS said:

    Latest popular vote figures for the House:

    GOP 52.1%
    Dem 46.4%

    https://www.cookpolitical.com/charts/house-charts/national-house-vote-tracker/2022

    The biggest number of votes still to report though on the Democrat heavy West Coast.

    Though even now the GOP lead less than the 7% they got in the 2010 midterms
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,940
    Chris said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Interesting story:

    Vladimir Putin has been offered surrender terms by the West, a respected Russian policy expert said today, as Moscow's troops were forced to withdraw from the city of Kherson in yet another humiliating defeat.

    Professor Valery Solovey, formerly at Moscow's prestigious Institute of International Relations and who claims to have connections in the Kremlin, said the surrender would see Russia give up all territory in Ukraine with the exception of Crimea which would become a demilitarized zone and its status not discussed again until 2029.

    In return, Putin and his cronies would avoid criminal charges over the war and be allowed to remain in power, Solovey claimed. He said the proposal had been discussed between Kyiv and its Western allies before being presented to Putin's inner circle - who had reacted positively to the idea.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11417563/Putin-offered-surrender-terms-West-loses-control-Kherson.html

    Although why anyone would trust Russia......

    Funny idea that it would be in the gift of any foreign power to offer that Putin should remain in power.

    The Russian people may have very different ideas.
    Very 18th and 19th century, appropriate given the war aims.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    CarlottaVance said:

    Interesting story:

    Vladimir Putin has been offered surrender terms by the West, a respected Russian policy expert said today, as Moscow's troops were forced to withdraw from the city of Kherson in yet another humiliating defeat.

    Professor Valery Solovey, formerly at Moscow's prestigious Institute of International Relations and who claims to have connections in the Kremlin, said the surrender would see Russia give up all territory in Ukraine with the exception of Crimea which would become a demilitarized zone and its status not discussed again until 2029.

    In return, Putin and his cronies would avoid criminal charges over the war and be allowed to remain in power, Solovey claimed. He said the proposal had been discussed between Kyiv and its Western allies before being presented to Putin's inner circle - who had reacted positively to the idea.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11417563/Putin-offered-surrender-terms-West-loses-control-Kherson.html

    Although why anyone would trust Russia......

    Or indeed the Daily Mail. I don’t believe a word of that.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,981
    Andy_JS said:

    Latest popular vote figures for the House:

    GOP 52.1%
    Dem 46.4%

    https://www.cookpolitical.com/charts/house-charts/national-house-vote-tracker/2022

    It is worth remembering that CA is massive and terribly slow to count: it will probably end up around 50-48.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,841
    edited November 2022
    rcs1000 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Interesting story:

    Vladimir Putin has been offered surrender terms by the West, a respected Russian policy expert said today, as Moscow's troops were forced to withdraw from the city of Kherson in yet another humiliating defeat.

    Professor Valery Solovey, formerly at Moscow's prestigious Institute of International Relations and who claims to have connections in the Kremlin, said the surrender would see Russia give up all territory in Ukraine with the exception of Crimea which would become a demilitarized zone and its status not discussed again until 2029.

    In return, Putin and his cronies would avoid criminal charges over the war and be allowed to remain in power, Solovey claimed. He said the proposal had been discussed between Kyiv and its Western allies before being presented to Putin's inner circle - who had reacted positively to the idea.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11417563/Putin-offered-surrender-terms-West-loses-control-Kherson.html

    Although why anyone would trust Russia......

    FWIW, I don't believe the story.

    I think it is much more likely that it is Putin floating the idea, to see if it gets traction in the West.
    That's even more encouraging, if so

    I am starting to give a little credence to these stories that Putin pushed his army to go WMD/nuclear, and they simply refused. If that did happen, that leaves Putin with no choice whatsoever. It is over. The best he can do is basically surrender - and hope for a peace deal like this
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,813
    Leon said:

    Whether a deal has been done with Putin, or not, those scenes in Kherson are spellbinding. What is it about Liberation videos? They have the same power whether they come from France in 1944, or Ukraine in 2022

    They must touch something primal and Freudian inside us. The beaten animal yearning to be free, the glorious overthrowing of the oppressor

    And your man, Putin, taking a hell of a beating...
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,812
    Chris said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Interesting story:

    Vladimir Putin has been offered surrender terms by the West, a respected Russian policy expert said today, as Moscow's troops were forced to withdraw from the city of Kherson in yet another humiliating defeat.

    Professor Valery Solovey, formerly at Moscow's prestigious Institute of International Relations and who claims to have connections in the Kremlin, said the surrender would see Russia give up all territory in Ukraine with the exception of Crimea which would become a demilitarized zone and its status not discussed again until 2029.

    In return, Putin and his cronies would avoid criminal charges over the war and be allowed to remain in power, Solovey claimed. He said the proposal had been discussed between Kyiv and its Western allies before being presented to Putin's inner circle - who had reacted positively to the idea.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11417563/Putin-offered-surrender-terms-West-loses-control-Kherson.html

    Although why anyone would trust Russia......

    Funny idea that it would be in the gift of any foreign power to offer that Putin should remain in power.

    The Russian people may have very different ideas.
    Unfortunately not necessarily to Ukraine's benefit. Imagine the scale of stab-in-the-back myth that would grow in Russia along with the desire for revenge. Putin the weak NATO puppet selling true Russian patriots down the river and betraying the motherland. West would need to keep a very watchful eye out.

    Sanctions are the interesting topic not mentioned in the quote above. I would have thought Russia would be desperate for sanctions relief as part of any deal.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,981
    kle4 said:

    numbertwelve said:

    Every US election, I warn myself about how long it takes for some results to be counted.

    Every US election, I lose my patience by around this time after the vote and wonder how the hell they can count so slowly.

    One legitimate point is all the other stuff on the massive ballot papers and late later arriving ballots.

    One ridiculous point is the need to be accurate and get it right, since that doesn't require slow counting, unless we're to believe anywhere that has counted in less than a week is inaccurate, including other areas of the USA which have been close.
    That is a fair point: in the UK, it's usually one ballot paper, one vote.

    In the US, there can be dozens of races and ballot initiatives.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,445
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "LAB: 49% (-2)
    CON: 26% (-1)
    RFM: 9% (+3)
    LDM: 7% (=)
    GRN: 5% (+2)
    SNP: 3% (-1)

    Via
    @Omnisis
    , 10-11 Nov.
    Changes w/ 3-4 Nov."

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1591076228827860992

    Ref on 9% now just 3% below UKIP's 2015 score.

    Sunak still doing better than Truss overall but leaking to RefUK more than her
    Even though he's further to the right than Boris and worked with all Boris's policies. So it's pretty irrational.
    He isn't on immigration or putting taxes up
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Morning Consult do a monthly GOP Primary poll at the start of the month. As of the start of November Trump leads DeSantis 48 to 24 (all polling prior to midterms)

    So the December poll will be gangbusters.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,981
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Interesting story:

    Vladimir Putin has been offered surrender terms by the West, a respected Russian policy expert said today, as Moscow's troops were forced to withdraw from the city of Kherson in yet another humiliating defeat.

    Professor Valery Solovey, formerly at Moscow's prestigious Institute of International Relations and who claims to have connections in the Kremlin, said the surrender would see Russia give up all territory in Ukraine with the exception of Crimea which would become a demilitarized zone and its status not discussed again until 2029.

    In return, Putin and his cronies would avoid criminal charges over the war and be allowed to remain in power, Solovey claimed. He said the proposal had been discussed between Kyiv and its Western allies before being presented to Putin's inner circle - who had reacted positively to the idea.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11417563/Putin-offered-surrender-terms-West-loses-control-Kherson.html

    Although why anyone would trust Russia......

    FWIW, I don't believe the story.

    I think it is much more likely that it is Putin floating the idea, to see if it gets traction in the West.
    That's even more encouraging, if so

    I am starting to give a little credence to these stories that Putin pushed his army to go WMD/nuclear, and they simply refused. If that his happen, that leaves Putin with no choice whatsoever. It is over. The best he can do is basically surrender - and hope for a peace deal like this
    Early on, this was pretty much what was floated by Zelenskyy. Now, successes will have buoyed Ukraine, but if they are able to reclaim the lost provinces in the East (that were absolute hell holes, from the sound of it), and are free to join NATO / the EU / etc., then maybe something like this is the basis for peace.

    Of course, it leaves Russia in a terrible position, having fucked off their major gas customer, seen their economy crippled by sanctions, and leaves them essentially a client state of China.

    It's also hard to see how Putin can sell this - and the 50-100,000 casualties - to his people as a victory. Maybe his internal security forces are strong enough to put down dissent. Or maybe they're not.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,631
    rcs1000 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Interesting story:

    Vladimir Putin has been offered surrender terms by the West, a respected Russian policy expert said today, as Moscow's troops were forced to withdraw from the city of Kherson in yet another humiliating defeat.

    Professor Valery Solovey, formerly at Moscow's prestigious Institute of International Relations and who claims to have connections in the Kremlin, said the surrender would see Russia give up all territory in Ukraine with the exception of Crimea which would become a demilitarized zone and its status not discussed again until 2029.

    In return, Putin and his cronies would avoid criminal charges over the war and be allowed to remain in power, Solovey claimed. He said the proposal had been discussed between Kyiv and its Western allies before being presented to Putin's inner circle - who had reacted positively to the idea.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11417563/Putin-offered-surrender-terms-West-loses-control-Kherson.html

    Although why anyone would trust Russia......

    FWIW, I don't believe the story.

    I think it is much more likely that it is Putin floating the idea, to see if it gets traction in the West.
    There were reports overnight that Washington was talking to Moscow, and urging Ukraine to open peace talks, so this story is plausible. Any peace terms will likely offer a way out for Putin.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,172
    edited November 2022
    rcs1000 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Interesting story:

    Vladimir Putin has been offered surrender terms by the West, a respected Russian policy expert said today, as Moscow's troops were forced to withdraw from the city of Kherson in yet another humiliating defeat.

    Professor Valery Solovey, formerly at Moscow's prestigious Institute of International Relations and who claims to have connections in the Kremlin, said the surrender would see Russia give up all territory in Ukraine with the exception of Crimea which would become a demilitarized zone and its status not discussed again until 2029.

    In return, Putin and his cronies would avoid criminal charges over the war and be allowed to remain in power, Solovey claimed. He said the proposal had been discussed between Kyiv and its Western allies before being presented to Putin's inner circle - who had reacted positively to the idea.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11417563/Putin-offered-surrender-terms-West-loses-control-Kherson.html

    Although why anyone would trust Russia......

    FWIW, I don't believe the story.

    I think it is much more likely that it is Putin floating the idea, to see if it gets traction in the West.
    I would think almost everyone in the West would leap at that sort of deal. Most important point is that Russia would have lost from the Feb 24th invasion - lost the occupied parts of Donbas, lost use of Sevastopol as a naval base.

    Even Zelenskyy has at times hinted that the Ukrainian approach towards Crimea is a little bit different.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,981
    Leon said:

    Whether a deal has been done with Putin, or not, those scenes in Kherson are spellbinding. What is it about Liberation videos? They have the same power whether they come from France in 1944, or Ukraine in 2022

    They must touch something primal and Freudian inside us. The beaten animal yearning to be free, the glorious overthrowing of the oppressor

    The denizens of Kherson are bloody flip floppers though: only a few weeks ago they were voting overwhelmingly to join Russia. Who will they want to part of next? Belaruse? Switzerland? Rwanda?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,100
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "LAB: 49% (-2)
    CON: 26% (-1)
    RFM: 9% (+3)
    LDM: 7% (=)
    GRN: 5% (+2)
    SNP: 3% (-1)

    Via
    @Omnisis
    , 10-11 Nov.
    Changes w/ 3-4 Nov."

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1591076228827860992

    Ref on 9% now just 3% below UKIP's 2015 score.

    Sunak still doing better than Truss overall but leaking to RefUK more than her
    Even though he's further to the right than Boris and worked with all Boris's policies. So it's pretty irrational.
    He isn't on immigration or putting taxes up
    Or on splashing the cash at the Red Wall towns.

    And ultimately, Rishi isn't Boris. He doesn't channel that Lord of Misrule thing that taps deep into the psyche.

    Hence one dimension of the pickle the Conservatives are in. Boris had to go, and many chunks of his agenda had to be ditched. But that will definitely lead to some 2019 Conservative voters going as well.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,841
    Alistair said:

    Turns out not giving Putin what he wanted lead to the liberation of Kherson and not nuclear holocaust.

    I wonder how long we are back to "must given Putin what he wants".

    I don't think anyone - bots in Verkhoyansk aside, and maybe @Dura_Ace - ever said "give Putin what he wants"

    My suggested peace deal, which I adumbrated about five weeks ago, was pretty much what the Daily Mail is reporting here. He gets to keep Crimea, and that's basically it

    Maybe those Russian bots read my suggestion, and took it to the Kremlin? LEONDAMUS THE PEACEMAKER
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,854
    Interesting but more interesting is how decisions by Cameron May Johnson and Truss have done more damage to this country than any consecutive group of Prime Ministers in history. They have all but destroyed it. In every case they put personal aggrandisement above the good of the country. Cameron was slightly less culpable and Johnson slightly more but history will judge them equally. The sooner the country is shot of the whole Party -which the surely will-the sooner the reconstruction can start.

    Item 1. rejoining the EU. On our knees if necessary
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,968
    Here's this year's ballot for Clark County, Washington:
    https://clark.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2022-09/NOV 2022 SAMPLE BALLOT.pdf

    (For those who missed my earlier comments: I have been following that county, because I really, really hope Trumpista Joe Kent loses.)

    It probably has somewhat fewer things to vote on than the average Washington state ballot, this year.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,262
    williamglenn said:

    Alistair said:

    Turns out not giving Putin what he wanted lead to the liberation of Kherson and not nuclear holocaust.

    I wonder how long we are back to "must given Putin what he wants".

    If he's asking for a villa on St Helena we should at least consider giving it to him.
    I'm generous. I've always considered a good acreage of Patagonian ranch appropriate, obviously with Argentina's consent for the deal.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,841
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Interesting story:

    Vladimir Putin has been offered surrender terms by the West, a respected Russian policy expert said today, as Moscow's troops were forced to withdraw from the city of Kherson in yet another humiliating defeat.

    Professor Valery Solovey, formerly at Moscow's prestigious Institute of International Relations and who claims to have connections in the Kremlin, said the surrender would see Russia give up all territory in Ukraine with the exception of Crimea which would become a demilitarized zone and its status not discussed again until 2029.

    In return, Putin and his cronies would avoid criminal charges over the war and be allowed to remain in power, Solovey claimed. He said the proposal had been discussed between Kyiv and its Western allies before being presented to Putin's inner circle - who had reacted positively to the idea.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11417563/Putin-offered-surrender-terms-West-loses-control-Kherson.html

    Although why anyone would trust Russia......

    FWIW, I don't believe the story.

    I think it is much more likely that it is Putin floating the idea, to see if it gets traction in the West.
    That's even more encouraging, if so

    I am starting to give a little credence to these stories that Putin pushed his army to go WMD/nuclear, and they simply refused. If that his happen, that leaves Putin with no choice whatsoever. It is over. The best he can do is basically surrender - and hope for a peace deal like this
    Early on, this was pretty much what was floated by Zelenskyy. Now, successes will have buoyed Ukraine, but if they are able to reclaim the lost provinces in the East (that were absolute hell holes, from the sound of it), and are free to join NATO / the EU / etc., then maybe something like this is the basis for peace.

    Of course, it leaves Russia in a terrible position, having fucked off their major gas customer, seen their economy crippled by sanctions, and leaves them essentially a client state of China.

    It's also hard to see how Putin can sell this - and the 50-100,000 casualties - to his people as a victory. Maybe his internal security forces are strong enough to put down dissent. Or maybe they're not.
    The Invasion of Ukraine will go down as the greatest unforced political error since.... Hitler declared war on the USA? It is of historic proportions. Monumental

    In the long run it is indeed difficult to see how Putin and his regime survives
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,391
    Pro_Rata said:

    williamglenn said:

    Alistair said:

    Turns out not giving Putin what he wanted lead to the liberation of Kherson and not nuclear holocaust.

    I wonder how long we are back to "must given Putin what he wants".

    If he's asking for a villa on St Helena we should at least consider giving it to him.
    I'm generous. I've always considered a good acreage of Patagonian ranch appropriate, obviously with Argentina's consent for the deal.
    There's too much risk he'd somehow end up gaining political power and invading the Falklands.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,805
    edited November 2022
    That DM story doesn’t ring true. Partly because it’s the DM and partly because all that stuff about Putin remaining in power and not going to court reeks of crap. What assurances can the West give on that front? I suppose not seeking to extradite him to The Hague, not that this would have happened anyway.

    What is interesting though is we are starting to hear faint whispers of deals to end the war, and I suspect that even if this particular story is a load of b*llcks, there is some truth in the fact that feelers are starting to be extended.
  • jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 790
    Alistair said:

    DID YOU KNOW?

    Trafalgar did a poll of the Vermont Senate Race.

    They said Welch 50 / Malloy 43 (a 7 point win)

    Actual result Welch 68 / Malloy 28 (a *checks notes* 40 point win)

    I am laughing so hard at Nate Silver right now spending the lat 2 years defending having them in his polling averages.

    It's so bizarre that it was Silver taking such a position - one of the first things I was aware of from 538 in the early days was him doing a takedown of a fake pollster. Really hooked me in with his dep dive into their numbers and how to spot how bad it was. And Trafalgar was just so obviously more of the same.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,172
    rcs1000 said:

    ...
    It's also hard to see how Putin can sell this - and the 50-100,000 casualties - to his people as a victory. Maybe his internal security forces are strong enough to put down dissent. Or maybe they're not.

    Bit of a sunk cost fallacy for Putin with that one. Whether he realises it or not yet the choice is most likely between being able to sell that to his people, or twice as many casualties with less to show for it.

    This is the time for Putin to choose bad over worse.

    My guess is that he's not yet ready to make that choice, but in a few months time he will wish he had.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,993
    Leon said:

    Whether a deal has been done with Putin, or not, those scenes in Kherson are spellbinding. What is it about Liberation videos? They have the same power whether they come from France in 1944, or Ukraine in 2022

    They must touch something primal and Freudian inside us. The beaten animal yearning to be free, the glorious overthrowing of the oppressor

    Yes. And it puts much of what we worry about into perspective. 2nd May 1997 is perhaps our nearest equivalent in recent memory - but even to make such a comparison is absurd and slightly crass.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,940
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "LAB: 49% (-2)
    CON: 26% (-1)
    RFM: 9% (+3)
    LDM: 7% (=)
    GRN: 5% (+2)
    SNP: 3% (-1)

    Via
    @Omnisis
    , 10-11 Nov.
    Changes w/ 3-4 Nov."

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1591076228827860992

    Ref on 9% now just 3% below UKIP's 2015 score.

    Sunak still doing better than Truss overall but leaking to RefUK more than her
    Even though he's further to the right than Boris and worked with all Boris's policies. So it's pretty irrational.
    He isn't on immigration or putting taxes up
    Rishi seems very hard line on immigration, backing Suella's position.

    On taxes, Boris agreed (and I supproted) the NI increase. If he had come in the position Sunak has I don't doubt he'd have done the same thing - one thing everyone agrees about Boris is he is flexible on policy matters.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,841
    numbertwelve said:

    That DM story doesn’t ring true. Partly because it’s the DM and partly because all that stuff about Putin remaining in power and not going to court reeks of crap. What assurances can the West give on that front? I suppose not seeking to extradite him to The Hague, not that this would have happened anyway.

    What is interesting though is we are starting to hear faint whispers of deals to end the war, and I suspect that even if this is a load of b*llcks, there is some truth in the fact that feelers are starting to be extended.

    These stories are coming out of Washington DC as well


    https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraines-zelensky-sets-conditions-for-genuine-peace-talks-with-russia-11667907501

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/11/05/ukraine-russia-peace-negotiations/

    It would be mad if the USA, and the rest of the Free World, was NOT exploring potential peace deals. No one wants this war to drag on for a decade, slaughtering half a million for a few square miles of mud in Donbas. If Putin is willing to yield, get it done
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,940
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Interesting story:

    Vladimir Putin has been offered surrender terms by the West, a respected Russian policy expert said today, as Moscow's troops were forced to withdraw from the city of Kherson in yet another humiliating defeat.

    Professor Valery Solovey, formerly at Moscow's prestigious Institute of International Relations and who claims to have connections in the Kremlin, said the surrender would see Russia give up all territory in Ukraine with the exception of Crimea which would become a demilitarized zone and its status not discussed again until 2029.

    In return, Putin and his cronies would avoid criminal charges over the war and be allowed to remain in power, Solovey claimed. He said the proposal had been discussed between Kyiv and its Western allies before being presented to Putin's inner circle - who had reacted positively to the idea.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11417563/Putin-offered-surrender-terms-West-loses-control-Kherson.html

    Although why anyone would trust Russia......

    FWIW, I don't believe the story.

    I think it is much more likely that it is Putin floating the idea, to see if it gets traction in the West.
    That's even more encouraging, if so

    I am starting to give a little credence to these stories that Putin pushed his army to go WMD/nuclear, and they simply refused. If that his happen, that leaves Putin with no choice whatsoever. It is over. The best he can do is basically surrender - and hope for a peace deal like this
    Early on, this was pretty much what was floated by Zelenskyy. Now, successes will have buoyed Ukraine, but if they are able to reclaim the lost provinces in the East (that were absolute hell holes, from the sound of it), and are free to join NATO / the EU / etc., then maybe something like this is the basis for peace.

    Of course, it leaves Russia in a terrible position, having fucked off their major gas customer, seen their economy crippled by sanctions, and leaves them essentially a client state of China.

    It's also hard to see how Putin can sell this - and the 50-100,000 casualties - to his people as a victory. Maybe his internal security forces are strong enough to put down dissent. Or maybe they're not.
    The Invasion of Ukraine will go down as the greatest unforced political error since.... Hitler declared war on the USA? It is of historic proportions. Monumental

    In the long run it is indeed difficult to see how Putin and his regime survives
    Regimes can survive remarkable setbacks, unfortunately. But other than him trying to make his paranoid 'Us against the world' viewpoint more real by isolating Russia from a lot of big players (even if much of the world doesn't care), it seemed a very, er, risky move right from the start. Hence all the 'There's no way he will actually do it, people are just warmongering' nonsense in Jan and Feb.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,445
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "LAB: 49% (-2)
    CON: 26% (-1)
    RFM: 9% (+3)
    LDM: 7% (=)
    GRN: 5% (+2)
    SNP: 3% (-1)

    Via
    @Omnisis
    , 10-11 Nov.
    Changes w/ 3-4 Nov."

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1591076228827860992

    Ref on 9% now just 3% below UKIP's 2015 score.

    Sunak still doing better than Truss overall but leaking to RefUK more than her
    Even though he's further to the right than Boris and worked with all Boris's policies. So it's pretty irrational.
    He isn't on immigration or putting taxes up
    Rishi seems very hard line on immigration, backing Suella's position.

    On taxes, Boris agreed (and I supproted) the NI increase. If he had come in the position Sunak has I don't doubt he'd have done the same thing - one thing everyone agrees about Boris is he is flexible on policy matters.
    Boris also wanted to cut taxes before he left office. Sunak will also need to cut taxes before the next election to reduce leakage to Reform.

    However it is the boats issue mainly leading to further leakage to RefUK and will continue to do unless Subak agrees a deal with Macron and cuts the numbers coming.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,940
    williamglenn said:

    Alistair said:

    Turns out not giving Putin what he wanted lead to the liberation of Kherson and not nuclear holocaust.

    I wonder how long we are back to "must given Putin what he wants".

    If he's asking for a villa on St Helena we should at least consider giving it to him.
    I keep saying people need to update their references, it has an airport now so is not isolated enough!
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,262
    Jim_Miller said:

    Here's this year's ballot for Clark County, Washington:
    https://clark.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2022-09/NOV 2022 SAMPLE BALLOT.pdf

    (For those who missed my earlier comments: I have been following that county, because I really, really hope Trumpista Joe Kent loses.)

    It probably has somewhat fewer things to vote on than the average Washington state ballot, this year.

    I make that:

    8 Referenda
    2 Federal delegates
    13 State positions
    16 County positions (Inc 1 described as local)

    Of the 31 elections, 15 are contested and 16 uncontested (but still on ballot because of the write in option).

    I particularly love how the Federal Senatorial election is tucked away at the far bottom corner of page 2.


  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,968
    For the record: I would prefer that Washington state return to voting in person, for everyone who can. But most voters here disagree with me, and I can understand why they do. It is easier for most to vote by mail, especially with our long, complex ballots. And you never have to stand in line. (I will happily concede that you are better at queues than Americans.)

    And the politics of returning to in-person voting are difficult, especially for Republicans. It would certainly be attacked as an attempt to "suppress" the vote.

    So I hope that those of you who are angered by slow counts in states like Washington will recognize that they have been chosen democratically, that most voters here would rather have all-mail voting, even though it often results in days-long counts.

    Reminder: The results in most states are known by the next day.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,841
    edited November 2022
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Whether a deal has been done with Putin, or not, those scenes in Kherson are spellbinding. What is it about Liberation videos? They have the same power whether they come from France in 1944, or Ukraine in 2022

    They must touch something primal and Freudian inside us. The beaten animal yearning to be free, the glorious overthrowing of the oppressor

    Yes. And it puts much of what we worry about into perspective. 2nd May 1997 is perhaps our nearest equivalent in recent memory - but even to make such a comparison is absurd and slightly crass.
    Very absurd and very crass
    Yes. very crass. Actually offensive. For me, the closest comparison to the Kherson Liberation is Brexit Day, Friday 31st January 2020, and the moment Boris won the GE in 2019, when we knew he would Get Brexit Done

    The hideous oppressor was expelled, and the tanks of free movement and the artillery of trade regulations fled across the Channel, like the soldiers across the Dnieper, and it was like having a baby as well

    Probably only Britons who experienced Brexit can understand exactly how the Khersonites feel today. Two proudly free peoples, saluting each other
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,940
    Alistair said:

    Turns out not giving Putin what he wanted lead to the liberation of Kherson and not nuclear holocaust.

    I wonder how long we are back to "must given Putin what he wants".

    Already there I think - there'll be talk of ceasefire to prevent further 'humiliation' and risky actions from him very soon, I have no doubt.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,199
    Roger said:

    Interesting but more interesting is how decisions by Cameron May Johnson and Truss have done more damage to this country than any consecutive group of Prime Ministers in history. They have all but destroyed it. In every case they put personal aggrandisement above the good of the country. Cameron was slightly less culpable and Johnson slightly more but history will judge them equally. The sooner the country is shot of the whole Party -which the surely will-the sooner the reconstruction can start.

    Item 1. rejoining the EU. On our knees if necessary

    How has the country been "all but destroyed?"
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,289
    Leon said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Whether a deal has been done with Putin, or not, those scenes in Kherson are spellbinding. What is it about Liberation videos? They have the same power whether they come from France in 1944, or Ukraine in 2022

    They must touch something primal and Freudian inside us. The beaten animal yearning to be free, the glorious overthrowing of the oppressor

    Yes. And it puts much of what we worry about into perspective. 2nd May 1997 is perhaps our nearest equivalent in recent memory - but even to make such a comparison is absurd and slightly crass.
    Very absurd and very crass
    Yes. very crass. Actually offensive. For me, the closest comparison to the Kherson Liberation is Brexit Day, Friday 31st January, and the moment Boris won the GE in 2019, when we knew he would Ged Brexit Done

    The hideous oppressor was expelled, and the tanks of free movement and the artillery of trade regulations fled across the Channel, like the soldiers across the Dnieper, and it was like having a baby as well
    Even more absurdly crass. Only swiveleyed loons like you think the fools charter of Brexit is anything worth celebrating. "Ooo sovereinty sovereignty" we hear the brainwashed fuckwits cry. We already had our sovereignty you gullible thickheads.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,841
    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    Turns out not giving Putin what he wanted lead to the liberation of Kherson and not nuclear holocaust.

    I wonder how long we are back to "must given Putin what he wants".

    Already there I think - there'll be talk of ceasefire to prevent further 'humiliation' and risky actions from him very soon, I have no doubt.
    This is just semantics tho. A ceasefire is not some cowardly option. It simply means the firing ceases. People stop dying, pointlessly and brutally, in a horrible war

    At some point there will be a ceasefire, because all wars end. If it can be done on the terms suggested in the Daily Mail, then Hell yeah, do it now

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,940
    Pro_Rata said:

    Jim_Miller said:

    Here's this year's ballot for Clark County, Washington:
    https://clark.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2022-09/NOV 2022 SAMPLE BALLOT.pdf

    (For those who missed my earlier comments: I have been following that county, because I really, really hope Trumpista Joe Kent loses.)

    It probably has somewhat fewer things to vote on than the average Washington state ballot, this year.

    I make that:

    8 Referenda
    2 Federal delegates
    13 State positions
    16 County positions (Inc 1 described as local)

    Of the 31 elections, 15 are contested and 16 uncontested (but still on ballot because of the write in option).

    I particularly love how the Federal Senatorial election is tucked away at the far bottom corner of page 2.


    Pro_Rata said:

    Jim_Miller said:

    Here's this year's ballot for Clark County, Washington:
    https://clark.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2022-09/NOV 2022 SAMPLE BALLOT.pdf

    (For those who missed my earlier comments: I have been following that county, because I really, really hope Trumpista Joe Kent loses.)

    It probably has somewhat fewer things to vote on than the average Washington state ballot, this year.

    I make that:

    8 Referenda
    2 Federal delegates
    13 State positions
    16 County positions (Inc 1 described as local)

    Of the 31 elections, 15 are contested and 16 uncontested (but still on ballot because of the write in option).

    I particularly love how the Federal Senatorial election is tucked away at the far bottom corner of page 2.


    I like that there are loads of unopposed mostly judicial offices which they still have to fill out, I presume due to possibility of write-ins, rather than just be declared the victor.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,354
    Jim_Miller said:

    For the record: I would prefer that Washington state return to voting in person, for everyone who can. But most voters here disagree with me, and I can understand why they do. It is easier for most to vote by mail, especially with our long, complex ballots. And you never have to stand in line. (I will happily concede that you are better at queues than Americans.)

    And the politics of returning to in-person voting are difficult, especially for Republicans. It would certainly be attacked as an attempt to "suppress" the vote.

    So I hope that those of you who are angered by slow counts in states like Washington will recognize that they have been chosen democratically, that most voters here would rather have all-mail voting, even though it often results in days-long counts.

    Reminder: The results in most states are known by the next day.

    Why is the USA pretty much the only Western country that takes weeks to count its votes, instead of hours or days?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,993
    edited November 2022
    Leon said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Whether a deal has been done with Putin, or not, those scenes in Kherson are spellbinding. What is it about Liberation videos? They have the same power whether they come from France in 1944, or Ukraine in 2022

    They must touch something primal and Freudian inside us. The beaten animal yearning to be free, the glorious overthrowing of the oppressor

    Yes. And it puts much of what we worry about into perspective. 2nd May 1997 is perhaps our nearest equivalent in recent memory - but even to make such a comparison is absurd and slightly crass.
    Very absurd and very crass
    Yes. very crass. Actually offensive. For me, the closest comparison to the Kherson Liberation is Brexit Day, Friday 31st January 2020, and the moment Boris won the GE in 2019, when we knew he would Get Brexit Done

    The hideous oppressor was expelled, and the tanks of free movement and the artillery of trade regulations fled across the Channel, like the soldiers across the Dnieper, and it was like having a baby as well

    Probably only Britons who experienced Brexit can understand exactly how the Khersonites feel today. Two proudly free peoples, saluting each other
    That's considerably crasser imo and unlike my comment - which was only slightly crass - it shouldn't really have been posted. Although it was pretty much exactly what Boris Johnson came out with. Which speaks volumes about that man.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,940
    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "LAB: 49% (-2)
    CON: 26% (-1)
    RFM: 9% (+3)
    LDM: 7% (=)
    GRN: 5% (+2)
    SNP: 3% (-1)

    Via
    @Omnisis
    , 10-11 Nov.
    Changes w/ 3-4 Nov."

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1591076228827860992

    Ref on 9% now just 3% below UKIP's 2015 score.

    Sunak still doing better than Truss overall but leaking to RefUK more than her
    Even though he's further to the right than Boris and worked with all Boris's policies. So it's pretty irrational.
    He isn't on immigration or putting taxes up
    Rishi seems very hard line on immigration, backing Suella's position.

    On taxes, Boris agreed (and I supproted) the NI increase. If he had come in the position Sunak has I don't doubt he'd have done the same thing - one thing everyone agrees about Boris is he is flexible on policy matters.
    Boris also wanted to cut taxes before he left office. Sunak will also need to cut taxes before the next election to reduce leakage to Reform.

    However it is the boats issue mainly leading to further leakage to RefUK and will continue to do unless Subak agrees a deal with Macron and cuts the numbers coming.

    Wanted to. I'm sure Rishi wants to as well. What did he do?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,289
    Driver said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Leon said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Whether a deal has been done with Putin, or not, those scenes in Kherson are spellbinding. What is it about Liberation videos? They have the same power whether they come from France in 1944, or Ukraine in 2022

    They must touch something primal and Freudian inside us. The beaten animal yearning to be free, the glorious overthrowing of the oppressor

    Yes. And it puts much of what we worry about into perspective. 2nd May 1997 is perhaps our nearest equivalent in recent memory - but even to make such a comparison is absurd and slightly crass.
    Very absurd and very crass
    Yes. very crass. Actually offensive. For me, the closest comparison to the Kherson Liberation is Brexit Day, Friday 31st January, and the moment Boris won the GE in 2019, when we knew he would Ged Brexit Done

    The hideous oppressor was expelled, and the tanks of free movement and the artillery of trade regulations fled across the Channel, like the soldiers across the Dnieper, and it was like having a baby as well
    Even more absurdly crass. Only swiveleyed loons like you think the fools charter of Brexit is anything worth celebrating. "Ooo sovereinty sovereignty" we hear the brainwashed fuckwits cry. We already had our sovereignty you gullible thickheads.
    You can always be relied upon to fall into his trap...
    I was responding in kind. Besides I think on the many occasions I have crossed swords with Leon on this site (and we both love each other really - yes genuinely) his arguments are as easily demolished my me as Putin's whole army would be routed by one division of the Scots Guards.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,262
    williamglenn said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    williamglenn said:

    Alistair said:

    Turns out not giving Putin what he wanted lead to the liberation of Kherson and not nuclear holocaust.

    I wonder how long we are back to "must given Putin what he wants".

    If he's asking for a villa on St Helena we should at least consider giving it to him.
    I'm generous. I've always considered a good acreage of Patagonian ranch appropriate, obviously with Argentina's consent for the deal.
    There's too much risk he'd somehow end up gaining political power and invading the Falklands.
    I would not fear Putin and his Potemkin Penguin Platoon.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,631
    kle4 said:

    williamglenn said:

    Alistair said:

    Turns out not giving Putin what he wanted lead to the liberation of Kherson and not nuclear holocaust.

    I wonder how long we are back to "must given Putin what he wants".

    If he's asking for a villa on St Helena we should at least consider giving it to him.
    I keep saying people need to update their references, it has an airport now so is not isolated enough!
    Maybe Doncaster then? No airport there shortly... :wink:
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,940
    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Alistair said:

    Turns out not giving Putin what he wanted lead to the liberation of Kherson and not nuclear holocaust.

    I wonder how long we are back to "must given Putin what he wants".

    Already there I think - there'll be talk of ceasefire to prevent further 'humiliation' and risky actions from him very soon, I have no doubt.
    This is just semantics tho. A ceasefire is not some cowardly option. It simply means the firing ceases. People stop dying, pointlessly and brutally, in a horrible war

    At some point there will be a ceasefire, because all wars end. If it can be done on the terms suggested in the Daily Mail, then Hell yeah, do it now

    It depends on the terms - if some people are suddently much more into ceasefires as Ukraine advances we can call that suspicious.

    Despite no doubt sincere desire to liberate all territory I'm sure it's true that Ukraine would accept such an offer as the DM suggests, were such a thing acted upon.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,841
    Selebian said:

    kle4 said:

    williamglenn said:

    Alistair said:

    Turns out not giving Putin what he wanted lead to the liberation of Kherson and not nuclear holocaust.

    I wonder how long we are back to "must given Putin what he wants".

    If he's asking for a villa on St Helena we should at least consider giving it to him.
    I keep saying people need to update their references, it has an airport now so is not isolated enough!
    Maybe Doncaster then? No airport there shortly... :wink:
    Wick. A big council house in Wick
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,391
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Leon said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Whether a deal has been done with Putin, or not, those scenes in Kherson are spellbinding. What is it about Liberation videos? They have the same power whether they come from France in 1944, or Ukraine in 2022

    They must touch something primal and Freudian inside us. The beaten animal yearning to be free, the glorious overthrowing of the oppressor

    Yes. And it puts much of what we worry about into perspective. 2nd May 1997 is perhaps our nearest equivalent in recent memory - but even to make such a comparison is absurd and slightly crass.
    Very absurd and very crass
    Yes. very crass. Actually offensive. For me, the closest comparison to the Kherson Liberation is Brexit Day, Friday 31st January, and the moment Boris won the GE in 2019, when we knew he would Ged Brexit Done

    The hideous oppressor was expelled, and the tanks of free movement and the artillery of trade regulations fled across the Channel, like the soldiers across the Dnieper, and it was like having a baby as well
    Even more absurdly crass. Only swiveleyed loons like you think the fools charter of Brexit is anything worth celebrating. "Ooo sovereinty sovereignty" we hear the brainwashed fuckwits cry. We already had our sovereignty you gullible thickheads.
    I read your post yesterday about your Euroscepticism with some interest, but it makes your stridency about Brexit seem a bit artificial. Surely you must see arguments on both sides, even if on balance you favoured Remain or thought the disadvantages outweighed any advantages from pulling out?

    If you're a William Hague-style Eurosceptic then you must think that the EU has done things and plans to do more things that we are better off steering clear of, but at the same time you are adamant that there are absolutely no benefits whatsoever from opting out of the whole lot. How can you be so sure that the line of what to opt in to was drawn in precisely the right place before 2016?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    kle4 said:

    williamglenn said:

    Alistair said:

    Turns out not giving Putin what he wanted lead to the liberation of Kherson and not nuclear holocaust.

    I wonder how long we are back to "must given Putin what he wants".

    If he's asking for a villa on St Helena we should at least consider giving it to him.
    I keep saying people need to update their references, it has an airport now so is not isolated enough!
    Um, when it became St Helena nowhere else had an airport either.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,678
    Hmmm.

    Run, Joe, Run! Why I Don’t Worry About Biden’s Age — and You Shouldn’t Either
    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/11/11/biden-age-presidential-election-00066386
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,841
    If this war ends soon (God willing) what are relations going to be like between Russia and Ukraine?

    Hateful, I imagine. Ukrainians will HATE Russia and Russians for decades, maybe generations. So another byproduct of Putin's Crazy War has been to turn a neighbouring country with often warm, fraternal feelings towards Russia into a sworn enemy, of 40 million people, who will loathe Russia with every atom

    Genius
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,678
    Senate GOP fears another Trump disaster in Georgia runoff
    https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/3730275-senate-gop-fears-another-trump-disaster-in-georgia-runoff/

    What a shame.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,993
    Selebian said:

    kle4 said:

    williamglenn said:

    Alistair said:

    Turns out not giving Putin what he wanted lead to the liberation of Kherson and not nuclear holocaust.

    I wonder how long we are back to "must given Putin what he wants".

    If he's asking for a villa on St Helena we should at least consider giving it to him.
    I keep saying people need to update their references, it has an airport now so is not isolated enough!
    Maybe Doncaster then? No airport there shortly... :wink:
    Yep. They're only repatriating now. Making sure everybody who flew out can get back to Donny before the bar drops. Shades of Saigon? No, not really - but a shame nonetheless and it was nice while it lasted. My parents will have to slog their way to Manchester now to catch a plane.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,899
    Gavin Williamson wasn’t appointed by accident. Neither was Raab. We have a government of bullies.

    | MoJ staff offered ‘route out’ amid concerns over Dominic Raab behaviour

    https://twitter.com/HarrietEJohnson/status/1591114441013198849

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/nov/11/dominic-raab-behaviour-moj-staff-offered-route-out?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,289
    williamglenn said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Leon said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Whether a deal has been done with Putin, or not, those scenes in Kherson are spellbinding. What is it about Liberation videos? They have the same power whether they come from France in 1944, or Ukraine in 2022

    They must touch something primal and Freudian inside us. The beaten animal yearning to be free, the glorious overthrowing of the oppressor

    Yes. And it puts much of what we worry about into perspective. 2nd May 1997 is perhaps our nearest equivalent in recent memory - but even to make such a comparison is absurd and slightly crass.
    Very absurd and very crass
    Yes. very crass. Actually offensive. For me, the closest comparison to the Kherson Liberation is Brexit Day, Friday 31st January, and the moment Boris won the GE in 2019, when we knew he would Ged Brexit Done

    The hideous oppressor was expelled, and the tanks of free movement and the artillery of trade regulations fled across the Channel, like the soldiers across the Dnieper, and it was like having a baby as well
    Even more absurdly crass. Only swiveleyed loons like you think the fools charter of Brexit is anything worth celebrating. "Ooo sovereinty sovereignty" we hear the brainwashed fuckwits cry. We already had our sovereignty you gullible thickheads.
    I read your post yesterday about your Euroscepticism with some interest, but it makes your stridency about Brexit seem a bit artificial. Surely you must see arguments on both sides, even if on balance you favoured Remain or thought the disadvantages outweighed any advantages from pulling out?

    If you're a William Hague-style Eurosceptic then you must think that the EU has done things and plans to do more things that we are better off steering clear of, but at the same time you are adamant that there are absolutely no benefits whatsoever from opting out of the whole lot. How can you be so sure that the line of what to opt in to was drawn in precisely the right place before 2016?
    I am a right of centre pragmatist, though I must admit that my putdowns of the lunatic Brexit apologists may well make me seem like an EU enthusiast when I never have been such. I was not in favour of joining Euro, and not in favour of "ever closer union", the latter which I think is mythological, as the French in particular have zero intention of being absorbed into a full-on union with Germany. I find British EU-phobia (as opposed to Eurosceptism) to be a pernicious and dangerously stupid ideology.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,678
    Someone's feeling a bit sore.

    Going forward, accounts engaged in parody must include “parody” in their name, not just in bio
    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1590884973535711232

    Not sure he quite gets the concept of parody.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,841
    Maybe my favourite Liberation video yet

    Херсон зустрічає своїх воїнів.
    Все буде Україна і перемога за нами!
    🔥Telegram - https://t.me/a_shtirlitz



    https://twitter.com/Shtirlitz53/status/1591109717887442945?s=20&t=r5Z3kLi1fgufFpNAj8LJjQ

    All that raw happiness. Difficult not to choke up a bit
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,658
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    williamglenn said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Leon said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Whether a deal has been done with Putin, or not, those scenes in Kherson are spellbinding. What is it about Liberation videos? They have the same power whether they come from France in 1944, or Ukraine in 2022

    They must touch something primal and Freudian inside us. The beaten animal yearning to be free, the glorious overthrowing of the oppressor

    Yes. And it puts much of what we worry about into perspective. 2nd May 1997 is perhaps our nearest equivalent in recent memory - but even to make such a comparison is absurd and slightly crass.
    Very absurd and very crass
    Yes. very crass. Actually offensive. For me, the closest comparison to the Kherson Liberation is Brexit Day, Friday 31st January, and the moment Boris won the GE in 2019, when we knew he would Ged Brexit Done

    The hideous oppressor was expelled, and the tanks of free movement and the artillery of trade regulations fled across the Channel, like the soldiers across the Dnieper, and it was like having a baby as well
    Even more absurdly crass. Only swiveleyed loons like you think the fools charter of Brexit is anything worth celebrating. "Ooo sovereinty sovereignty" we hear the brainwashed fuckwits cry. We already had our sovereignty you gullible thickheads.
    I read your post yesterday about your Euroscepticism with some interest, but it makes your stridency about Brexit seem a bit artificial. Surely you must see arguments on both sides, even if on balance you favoured Remain or thought the disadvantages outweighed any advantages from pulling out?

    If you're a William Hague-style Eurosceptic then you must think that the EU has done things and plans to do more things that we are better off steering clear of, but at the same time you are adamant that there are absolutely no benefits whatsoever from opting out of the whole lot. How can you be so sure that the line of what to opt in to was drawn in precisely the right place before 2016?
    I am a right of centre pragmatist, though I must admit that my putdowns of the lunatic Brexit apologists may well make me seem like an EU enthusiast when I never have been such. I was not in favour of joining Euro, and not in favour of "ever closer union", the latter which I think is mythological, as the French in particular have zero intention of being absorbed into a full-on union with Germany. I find British EU-phobia (as opposed to Eurosceptism) to be a pernicious and dangerously stupid ideology.
    Being part of an organisation whose explicit aims - Ever Closer Union - we are opposed to on the basis that we hope other members will share our opposition seems - well - a little trusting for my tastes.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,391
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    williamglenn said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Leon said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Whether a deal has been done with Putin, or not, those scenes in Kherson are spellbinding. What is it about Liberation videos? They have the same power whether they come from France in 1944, or Ukraine in 2022

    They must touch something primal and Freudian inside us. The beaten animal yearning to be free, the glorious overthrowing of the oppressor

    Yes. And it puts much of what we worry about into perspective. 2nd May 1997 is perhaps our nearest equivalent in recent memory - but even to make such a comparison is absurd and slightly crass.
    Very absurd and very crass
    Yes. very crass. Actually offensive. For me, the closest comparison to the Kherson Liberation is Brexit Day, Friday 31st January, and the moment Boris won the GE in 2019, when we knew he would Ged Brexit Done

    The hideous oppressor was expelled, and the tanks of free movement and the artillery of trade regulations fled across the Channel, like the soldiers across the Dnieper, and it was like having a baby as well
    Even more absurdly crass. Only swiveleyed loons like you think the fools charter of Brexit is anything worth celebrating. "Ooo sovereinty sovereignty" we hear the brainwashed fuckwits cry. We already had our sovereignty you gullible thickheads.
    I read your post yesterday about your Euroscepticism with some interest, but it makes your stridency about Brexit seem a bit artificial. Surely you must see arguments on both sides, even if on balance you favoured Remain or thought the disadvantages outweighed any advantages from pulling out?

    If you're a William Hague-style Eurosceptic then you must think that the EU has done things and plans to do more things that we are better off steering clear of, but at the same time you are adamant that there are absolutely no benefits whatsoever from opting out of the whole lot. How can you be so sure that the line of what to opt in to was drawn in precisely the right place before 2016?
    I am a right of centre pragmatist, though I must admit that my putdowns of the lunatic Brexit apologists may well make me seem like an EU enthusiast when I never have been such. I was not in favour of joining Euro, and not in favour of "ever closer union", the latter which I think is mythological, as the French in particular have zero intention of being absorbed into a full-on union with Germany. I find British EU-phobia (as opposed to Eurosceptism) to be a pernicious and dangerously stupid ideology.
    If "ever closer union" is mythological, why does the Euro even exist?

    Maybe the people who spent all their time banging on about Europe before Brexit were a pernicious influence, but trying to avenge them by spending all your time banging on about Europe just turns you into their mirror image. There's nothing inherently stupid about not being a member of the EU.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,402
    Sean_F said:

    Roger said:

    Interesting but more interesting is how decisions by Cameron May Johnson and Truss have done more damage to this country than any consecutive group of Prime Ministers in history. They have all but destroyed it. In every case they put personal aggrandisement above the good of the country. Cameron was slightly less culpable and Johnson slightly more but history will judge them equally. The sooner the country is shot of the whole Party -which the surely will-the sooner the reconstruction can start.

    Item 1. rejoining the EU. On our knees if necessary

    How has the country been "all but destroyed?"
    It looks rather better than Mariupol...as a reference point for "all but destroyed".

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/24/mariupol-drone-destruction-ukraine-war-russia/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,678
    Someone else even more sore.

    Trump unloading on DeSantis over on Truth Social.
    https://twitter.com/kyledcheney/status/1590844069118607364
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Nigelb said:

    Hmmm.

    Run, Joe, Run! Why I Don’t Worry About Biden’s Age — and You Shouldn’t Either
    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/11/11/biden-age-presidential-election-00066386

    Jesus.

    That article would make sense if we were looking at a 60 year old Joe and wondering what he'd be like at 79. We know what he is like at 79. So pointing to other on the ball oldies is like Harold Shipman's defence team fielding hundreds of examples of non-murderer GPs to prove the implausibility of the case against him.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    Jim_Miller said:

    Here's this year's ballot for Clark County, Washington:
    https://clark.wa.gov/sites/default/files/2022-09/NOV 2022 SAMPLE BALLOT.pdf

    (For those who missed my earlier comments: I have been following that county, because I really, really hope Trumpista Joe Kent loses.)

    It probably has somewhat fewer things to vote on than the average Washington state ballot, this year.

    Question. Are Clark County, Washington and Clark County, Nevada named after the same person?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,402
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Leon said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Whether a deal has been done with Putin, or not, those scenes in Kherson are spellbinding. What is it about Liberation videos? They have the same power whether they come from France in 1944, or Ukraine in 2022

    They must touch something primal and Freudian inside us. The beaten animal yearning to be free, the glorious overthrowing of the oppressor

    Yes. And it puts much of what we worry about into perspective. 2nd May 1997 is perhaps our nearest equivalent in recent memory - but even to make such a comparison is absurd and slightly crass.
    Very absurd and very crass
    Yes. very crass. Actually offensive. For me, the closest comparison to the Kherson Liberation is Brexit Day, Friday 31st January, and the moment Boris won the GE in 2019, when we knew he would Ged Brexit Done

    The hideous oppressor was expelled, and the tanks of free movement and the artillery of trade regulations fled across the Channel, like the soldiers across the Dnieper, and it was like having a baby as well
    Even more absurdly crass. Only swiveleyed loons like you think the fools charter of Brexit is anything worth celebrating. "Ooo sovereinty sovereignty" we hear the brainwashed fuckwits cry. We already had our sovereignty you gullible thickheads.
    We can all agree: we do now.

    Thickhead....
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,658
    Leon said:

    If this war ends soon (God willing) what are relations going to be like between Russia and Ukraine?

    Hateful, I imagine. Ukrainians will HATE Russia and Russians for decades, maybe generations. So another byproduct of Putin's Crazy War has been to turn a neighbouring country with often warm, fraternal feelings towards Russia into a sworn enemy, of 40 million people, who will loathe Russia with every atom

    Genius

    Yes, Putin's strategic aims over the last 20 years have been:
    - a divided west, and particularly a divided and weakened NATO
    - a near abroad which is pro-Russian in outlook, or at least not actively anti-Russian.
    - gradually improving living standards.

    Nice one, Vlad.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,899
    Reminded that Dominic Raab was one of the least liked of the UK’s Brexit ministers. EU officials thought he was untrustworthy and did not faithfully reflect positions of then PM, Theresa May. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/nov/11/dominic-raab-behaviour-moj-staff-offered-route-out?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,993
    Nigelb said:

    Someone's feeling a bit sore.

    Going forward, accounts engaged in parody must include “parody” in their name, not just in bio
    https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1590884973535711232

    Not sure he quite gets the concept of parody.

    Could usher in a refreshing new era where people put exactly what they're all about in their name so there can be no misunderrstandings.

    "Comedian"
    "Troll"
    "Entertainer-cum-Philosopher"
    "Serious Pundit"
    etc
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,678
    Leon said:

    Maybe my favourite Liberation video yet

    Херсон зустрічає своїх воїнів.
    Все буде Україна і перемога за нами!
    🔥Telegram - https://t.me/a_shtirlitz

    https://twitter.com/Shtirlitz53/status/1591109717887442945?s=20&t=r5Z3kLi1fgufFpNAj8LJjQ

    All that raw happiness. Difficult not to choke up a bit

    Does it have a watermelon, though ?
    https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1591111624953397248
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,899
    Our ‘vital’ partnership with Rwanda? If we recognised that our ‘vital’ partnership is in fact with France and the EU we wouldn’t be in this mess. “Stupid is - as Stupid does.” Forrest Gump was right ….

    https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1591117898839474177

    https://twitter.com/suellabraverman/status/1591108142301319169

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,658
    You should show the worm "turning" in the graphical image on Wiki:

    image
This discussion has been closed.