Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

CON polling better under Sunak but still way behind – politicalbetting.com

123457

Comments

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    edited November 2022
    rcs1000 said:

    The Washington Post has Lake as favorite to win in AZ by about 80k votes.

    That's a gain from here of 105k - if correct would mean Senate race is on knife edge.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,780
    MikeL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Washington Post has Lake as favorite to win in AZ by about 80k votes.

    That's a gain from here of 105k - if correct would mean Senate race is on knife edge.
    I'm slightly sceptical, because they also forecast Kelly winning by 100k votes.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    rcs1000 said:

    MikeL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Washington Post has Lake as favorite to win in AZ by about 80k votes.

    That's a gain from here of 105k - if correct would mean Senate race is on knife edge.
    I'm slightly sceptical, because they also forecast Kelly winning by 100k votes.
    Those two forecasts cannot be compatible.

    Implies Lake gains 105k from here but Kelly only loses 15k from here.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,780
    MikeL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MikeL said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The Washington Post has Lake as favorite to win in AZ by about 80k votes.

    That's a gain from here of 105k - if correct would mean Senate race is on knife edge.
    I'm slightly sceptical, because they also forecast Kelly winning by 100k votes.
    Those two forecasts cannot be compatible.

    Implies Lake gains 105k from here but Kelly only loses 15k from here.
    They cannot.

    FWIW, this drop is likely to be the most favourable big drop for Lake/Masters. I don't think there are any more on the day, from Maricopa at least, to come.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    Maricopa batch:

    Kelly lead UP 8k!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,780
    More results in from AZ, and they're good for the Dems.

    Mark Kelly lead now 124k, while Hobbs extends her lead to 33k votes.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    edited November 2022
    CNN declares Kelly wins AZ Senate.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,780
    edited November 2022
    MikeL said:

    CNN declares Kelly wins AZ Senate.

    TBF, I think that result has been pretty clear for a while. a 6% lead is massive when there's only 17% or so to come.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,780
    That Maricopa batch that was expected to break heavily for Lake/Masters:


  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    Washoe batch:

    Cortez 5,821
    Laxalt 4,691

    Laxalt lead back to 821
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    Republican Maricopa County Board of Supervisors Chairman completely rubbishing RNC allegations.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,780
    MikeL said:

    Republican Maricopa County Board of Supervisors Chairman completely rubbishing RNC allegations.

    These allegations?


  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    CNN update re NV still to count:

    Clark 23k + 15k provisionals
    Washoe 11k
    Douglas 2k
    Other 4k

    Total 55k

    NB. Washoe figure different to what was posted earlier!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,780
    MikeL said:

    CNN update re NV still to count:

    Clark 23k + 15k provisionals
    Washoe 11k
    Douglas 2k
    Other 4k

    Total 55k

    NB. Washoe figure different to what was posted earlier!

    My guess would be Cortez Masto by 6-10k when all is said and done.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    edited November 2022
    NV: No more votes will be released tonight (per Editor Nevada Independent)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,780
    I think we're probably done now for the night. I don't know if votes will be counted over the weekend or not.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    rcs1000 said:

    MikeL said:

    CNN update re NV still to count:

    Clark 23k + 15k provisionals
    Washoe 11k
    Douglas 2k
    Other 4k

    Total 55k

    NB. Washoe figure different to what was posted earlier!

    My guess would be Cortez Masto by 6-10k when all is said and done.
    Based on tonight's trends I would estimate Cortez Masto by 10k.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    rcs1000 said:

    I think we're probably done now for the night. I don't know if votes will be counted over the weekend or not.

    Yes, they have said more votes will be released tomorrow.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,102
    edited November 2022
    rcs1000 said:

    MikeL said:

    CNN update re NV still to count:

    Clark 23k + 15k provisionals
    Washoe 11k
    Douglas 2k
    Other 4k

    Total 55k

    NB. Washoe figure different to what was posted earlier!

    My guess would be Cortez Masto by 6-10k when all is said and done.
    Morning Robert. Yes, agreed.

    I did caution those piling money on Laxalt that there was a good reason the networks favoured Cortez.

    Cortez Masto is now 1/100 to win. It's a virtual certainty.

    Which means the Democrats have control of the Senate. And they are looking very good now to win it outright 51-49 because Warnock isn't likely to lose the run off. Quite some result for a mid-term.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 5,102
    edited November 2022
    The increasingly likely scenario of the Democrats taking the Senate 51-49 in mid-term when we were told by the Republicans, including their pollsters, that there would be a red wave is quite remarkable.

    It's also not yet absolutely certain that the GOP have taken the House, although I think they narrowly will.

    Trumpty Dumpty had a great fall indeed.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,591
    Heathener said:

    The increasingly likely scenario of the Democrats taking the Senate 51-49 in mid-term when we were told by the Republicans, including their pollsters, that there would be a red wave is quite remarkable.

    It's also not yet absolutely certain that the GOP have taken the House, although I think they narrowly will.

    Trumpty Dumpty had a great fall indeed.

    The fanboys and girls are turning away.

    https://twitter.com/AnnCoulter/status/1591190349330157568
    To Trump:
    You had your chance, with a Republican House and Senate. You handed domestic policy to your son-in-law and Gary Cohn. You handed foreign policy to your son-in-law and a country that gave your son-in-law $2 billion.

    Shut the fuck up, forever.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,591
    Energy giant DTEK: Russia completely destroyed energy system in Kherson.

    Executive director of Ukraine's largest private power producer DTEK Dmytro Sakharuk said on TV on Nov. 11 that there is no electricity at all in the city of Kherson.

    https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1591233337401769985
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited November 2022
    Nigelb said:

    Heathener said:

    The increasingly likely scenario of the Democrats taking the Senate 51-49 in mid-term when we were told by the Republicans, including their pollsters, that there would be a red wave is quite remarkable.

    It's also not yet absolutely certain that the GOP have taken the House, although I think they narrowly will.

    Trumpty Dumpty had a great fall indeed.

    The fanboys and girls are turning away.

    https://twitter.com/AnnCoulter/status/1591190349330157568
    To Trump:
    You had your chance, with a Republican House and Senate. You handed domestic policy to your son-in-law and Gary Cohn. You handed foreign policy to your son-in-law and a country that gave your son-in-law $2 billion.

    Shut the fuck up, forever.

    A tweet from one charmer to another! Like two slugs mud wrestling (but she couldn't have put it better)
  • One of the reasons EFTA (or similar) was not entertained was simply that Brexiters were so high on their own supply they could not concede that there was any merit at all in doing so.

    After all, there were no downsides to Brexit, only considerable upsides; Minford predicted Brexit would deliver falling prices and economic *growth*; a US trade deal was in the wings, and of course the EU was a sclerotic hellhole anyway.

    Once Brexiters return to reality-based thinking, and there are signs that this has started, EFTA (or similar) starts to look viable.

    FWIW, I said on here before and after the vote I'd be ok with EFTA or EEA-EFTA with an emergency brake on migration.

    It's effectively what Cameron said he was trying to negotiate for (albeit inside the EU) and failed to get.
  • Rejoining would be the 21st century answer to the Restoration of 1660.

    Is this the Sunil that used to have a profile badge of "Believe in Britain! Be LEAVE!" and also post that as a comment in response to any pro-Remain argument?

    Surely not.
  • I see the House odds have slipped to 1.14 again

    Reviewing the seats this morning I get to a minimum of 219 Republican seats, so I've put more on.
  • Nigelb said:

    Heathener said:

    The increasingly likely scenario of the Democrats taking the Senate 51-49 in mid-term when we were told by the Republicans, including their pollsters, that there would be a red wave is quite remarkable.

    It's also not yet absolutely certain that the GOP have taken the House, although I think they narrowly will.

    Trumpty Dumpty had a great fall indeed.

    The fanboys and girls are turning away.

    https://twitter.com/AnnCoulter/status/1591190349330157568
    To Trump:
    You had your chance, with a Republican House and Senate. You handed domestic policy to your son-in-law and Gary Cohn. You handed foreign policy to your son-in-law and a country that gave your son-in-law $2 billion.

    Shut the fuck up, forever.

    I was planning to lay after Trump's announcement next Tuesday.

    I wonder if I should start to lay him now.. hmm.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,780

    Rejoining would be the 21st century answer to the Restoration of 1660.

    Is this the Sunil that used to have a profile badge of "Believe in Britain! Be LEAVE!" and also post that as a comment in response to any pro-Remain argument?

    Surely not.
    Sunil thinks we need to rejoin the EU for 28 years, realise it was a terrible mistake again, and then have a Glorious Revolution.
  • I see the House odds have slipped to 1.14 again

    Reviewing the seats this morning I get to a minimum of 219 Republican seats, so I've put more on.

    Possibly punters freeing up money for Saturday's sporting action?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769

    Rejoining would be the 21st century answer to the Restoration of 1660.

    Is this the Sunil that used to have a profile badge of "Believe in Britain! Be LEAVE!" and also post that as a comment in response to any pro-Remain argument?

    Surely not.
    You’re assuming he thinks the Restoration was a good thing.

    He is a republican, remember.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Technical woe continues. No F1 tips for the foreseeable future.

    F1: I see Ferrari were Ferrari during qualifying.
  • rcs1000 said:

    I see the House odds have slipped to 1.14 again

    Reviewing the seats this morning I get to a minimum of 219 Republican seats, so I've put more on.

    I really struggle to see how the Republicans don't get to 218/219.

    Right now, they have 211, and they lead in another 10.

    They would need to lose four of these to drop to 217 for the Dems to get a majority.

    That is - statistically - highly unlikely. Well under a 1-in-6 shot, more like a 1-in-100.

    Let's run down the list:

    CO-3 - Lauren Boebert only leads by 0.35%, but we're basically done there. It's over, she's won.
    OR-5 - R+2 with 84% counted.
    CA-4 - R+6 with 53% counted
    CA-13 - R+0.1% with 61% counted
    CA-22 - R+5 with 53% counted
    CA-27 - R+12 with 64% counted
    CA-31 - R+1.2 with 59% counted.
    CA-45 - R+8 with 67% counted
    AZ-6 - R+1 with 83% counted
    NY-22 - R+1.5% with more than 95% counted.

    Two of these races (CO-3 and NY-22) are basically over. There is no realistic proposition that wither CA-27 or CA-45 are going to be anything other than a comfortable R hold.

    So: four are in the bag, meaning they only need another three.

    To lose four of the six competitive seats where the Republicans are leading is highly unlikely. Maybe my 1-in-100 was excessively generous, but it's not far off.
    It also requires all the narrow Democrat leads to go their way too.

    I think it’ll be about 220-215 GOP-Democrat
  • rcs1000 said:

    I see the House odds have slipped to 1.14 again

    Reviewing the seats this morning I get to a minimum of 219 Republican seats, so I've put more on.

    I really struggle to see how the Republicans don't get to 218/219.

    Right now, they have 211, and they lead in another 10.

    They would need to lose four of these to drop to 217 for the Dems to get a majority.

    That is - statistically - highly unlikely. Well under a 1-in-6 shot, more like a 1-in-100.

    Let's run down the list:

    CO-3 - Lauren Boebert only leads by 0.35%, but we're basically done there. It's over, she's won.
    OR-5 - R+2 with 84% counted.
    CA-4 - R+6 with 53% counted
    CA-13 - R+0.1% with 61% counted
    CA-22 - R+5 with 53% counted
    CA-27 - R+12 with 64% counted
    CA-31 - R+1.2 with 59% counted.
    CA-45 - R+8 with 67% counted
    AZ-6 - R+1 with 83% counted
    NY-22 - R+1.5% with more than 95% counted.

    Two of these races (CO-3 and NY-22) are basically over. There is no realistic proposition that wither CA-27 or CA-45 are going to be anything other than a comfortable R hold.

    So: four are in the bag, meaning they only need another three.

    To lose four of the six competitive seats where the Republicans are leading is highly unlikely. Maybe my 1-in-100 was excessively generous, but it's not far off.
    Are any of the Rs anywhere the equivalent of Sanders and King in the Senate?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Good morning, everyone.

    Technical woe continues. No F1 tips for the foreseeable future.

    F1: I see Ferrari were Ferrari during qualifying.

    Does anyone know what were the odds on Magnussen for pole, before the session?

    Mr Dancer, PM me if you need a hand with technical issues.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Heathener said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MikeL said:

    CNN update re NV still to count:

    Clark 23k + 15k provisionals
    Washoe 11k
    Douglas 2k
    Other 4k

    Total 55k

    NB. Washoe figure different to what was posted earlier!

    My guess would be Cortez Masto by 6-10k when all is said and done.
    Morning Robert. Yes, agreed.

    I did caution those piling money on Laxalt that there was a good reason the networks favoured Cortez.

    Cortez Masto is now 1/100 to win. It's a virtual certainty.

    Which means the Democrats have control of the Senate. And they are looking very good now to win it outright 51-49 because Warnock isn't likely to lose the run off. Quite some result for a mid-term.
    It's 49-49-2 no overall control technically
  • Top trolling:

    You still here?! It’s over! Go home![VIDEO]

    https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1591162458952982528
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,010
    I see Betfair currently has a Democrat majority in the Senate at 40-70, implying it's now more likely than a Republican majority.

    Presumably this is down to people who haven't read the rules, which state "Independent or any other party Representatives caucusing with either the Democrats or Republicans will NOT count for the purposes of this market."

    It must now be more likely than not that the Democrats and their Independent allies will get to 51.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Top trolling:

    You still here?! It’s over! Go home![VIDEO]

    https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1591162458952982528

    Oh yeah…
  • rcs1000 said:

    The Washington Post has Lake as favorite to win in AZ by about 80k votes.

    Latest batch of votes, those dropped off on the day, favoured Hobbs (D) increasing her lead to 31K,
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sY7IEUGUSAo
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    One of the reasons EFTA (or similar) was not entertained was simply that Brexiters were so high on their own supply they could not concede that there was any merit at all in doing so.

    After all, there were no downsides to Brexit, only considerable upsides; Minford predicted Brexit would deliver falling prices and economic *growth*; a US trade deal was in the wings, and of course the EU was a sclerotic hellhole anyway.

    Once Brexiters return to reality-based thinking, and there are signs that this has started, EFTA (or similar) starts to look viable.

    FWIW, I said on here before and after the vote I'd be ok with EFTA or EEA-EFTA with an emergency brake on migration.

    It's effectively what Cameron said he was trying to negotiate for (albeit inside the EU) and failed to get.
    Did you say your wife was from Bulgaria? I had a UBER driver from Bulgaria yesterday. He was fluent in four languages. English french Russian and 'Jewish' As he described it -presumably Hebrew. He came to the UK in 2015 and left after Brexit in 2017 then Israel then France picking up a language driving cabs everywhere he went. He was astonished at the ignorance he found in the UK during the EU debate. It's not often you meet Bulgarians but if your wife is as cultured as Stanisav then you shouln't be short of things to talk about
  • Chris said:

    Social workers may stop asking dementia patients who the Prime Minister is in memory tests due to the high turnaround at Number 10.

    After three leaders in four months, it was felt the question was unfair as those without the disease may also struggle to name the current leader amid the Tory turmoil.


    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/social-workers-told-not-ask-28471033

    Are we sure this isn't just a ruse from Joe Biden's people?
    ... or Trump's? He doesn't know who the President is even though he's been reminded by members of his administration, the courts and now the American people.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 4,199
    Roger said:

    One of the reasons EFTA (or similar) was not entertained was simply that Brexiters were so high on their own supply they could not concede that there was any merit at all in doing so.

    After all, there were no downsides to Brexit, only considerable upsides; Minford predicted Brexit would deliver falling prices and economic *growth*; a US trade deal was in the wings, and of course the EU was a sclerotic hellhole anyway.

    Once Brexiters return to reality-based thinking, and there are signs that this has started, EFTA (or similar) starts to look viable.

    FWIW, I said on here before and after the vote I'd be ok with EFTA or EEA-EFTA with an emergency brake on migration.

    It's effectively what Cameron said he was trying to negotiate for (albeit inside the EU) and failed to get.
    Did you say your wife was from Bulgaria? I had a UBER driver from Bulgaria yesterday. He was fluent in four languages. English french Russian and 'Jewish' As he described it -presumably Hebrew. He came to the UK in 2015 and left after Brexit in 2017 then Israel then France picking up a language driving cabs everywhere he went. He was astonished at the ignorance he found in the UK during the EU debate. It's not often you meet Bulgarians but if your wife is as cultured as Stanisav then you shouln't be short of things to talk about
    Maybe PB should also make users have "parody" in their name. Although I think here the parody is too obvious to cause any confusion.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769
    Roger said:

    One of the reasons EFTA (or similar) was not entertained was simply that Brexiters were so high on their own supply they could not concede that there was any merit at all in doing so.

    After all, there were no downsides to Brexit, only considerable upsides; Minford predicted Brexit would deliver falling prices and economic *growth*; a US trade deal was in the wings, and of course the EU was a sclerotic hellhole anyway.

    Once Brexiters return to reality-based thinking, and there are signs that this has started, EFTA (or similar) starts to look viable.

    FWIW, I said on here before and after the vote I'd be ok with EFTA or EEA-EFTA with an emergency brake on migration.

    It's effectively what Cameron said he was trying to negotiate for (albeit inside the EU) and failed to get.
    Did you say your wife was from Bulgaria? I had a UBER driver from Bulgaria yesterday. He was fluent in four languages. English french Russian and 'Jewish' As he described it -presumably Hebrew. He came to the UK in 2015 and left after Brexit in 2017 then Israel then France picking up a language driving cabs everywhere he went. He was astonished at the ignorance he found in the UK during the EU debate. It's not often you meet Bulgarians but if your wife is as cultured as Stanisav then you shouln't be short of things to talk about
    You're not a proper PBer until you've had an Albanian in a taxi driver by an AI robot.

    I have got that right haven't I?
  • rcs1000 said:

    I see the House odds have slipped to 1.14 again

    Reviewing the seats this morning I get to a minimum of 219 Republican seats, so I've put more on.

    I really struggle to see how the Republicans don't get to 218/219.

    Right now, they have 211, and they lead in another 10.

    They would need to lose four of these to drop to 217 for the Dems to get a majority.

    That is - statistically - highly unlikely. Well under a 1-in-6 shot, more like a 1-in-100.

    Let's run down the list:

    CO-3 - Lauren Boebert only leads by 0.35%, but we're basically done there. It's over, she's won.
    OR-5 - R+2 with 84% counted.
    CA-4 - R+6 with 53% counted
    CA-13 - R+0.1% with 61% counted
    CA-22 - R+5 with 53% counted
    CA-27 - R+12 with 64% counted
    CA-31 - R+1.2 with 59% counted.
    CA-45 - R+8 with 67% counted
    AZ-6 - R+1 with 83% counted
    NY-22 - R+1.5% with more than 95% counted.

    Two of these races (CO-3 and NY-22) are basically over. There is no realistic proposition that wither CA-27 or CA-45 are going to be anything other than a comfortable R hold.

    So: four are in the bag, meaning they only need another three.

    To lose four of the six competitive seats where the Republicans are leading is highly unlikely. Maybe my 1-in-100 was excessively generous, but it's not far off.
    It also requires all the narrow Democrat leads to go their way too.

    I think it’ll be about 220-215 GOP-Democrat
    I think you're right. That result plus retaining the Senate in the midterms is a great achievement by the Democrats (and Trump it must be said).
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884
    kamski said:

    Roger said:

    One of the reasons EFTA (or similar) was not entertained was simply that Brexiters were so high on their own supply they could not concede that there was any merit at all in doing so.

    After all, there were no downsides to Brexit, only considerable upsides; Minford predicted Brexit would deliver falling prices and economic *growth*; a US trade deal was in the wings, and of course the EU was a sclerotic hellhole anyway.

    Once Brexiters return to reality-based thinking, and there are signs that this has started, EFTA (or similar) starts to look viable.

    FWIW, I said on here before and after the vote I'd be ok with EFTA or EEA-EFTA with an emergency brake on migration.

    It's effectively what Cameron said he was trying to negotiate for (albeit inside the EU) and failed to get.
    Did you say your wife was from Bulgaria? I had a UBER driver from Bulgaria yesterday. He was fluent in four languages. English french Russian and 'Jewish' As he described it -presumably Hebrew. He came to the UK in 2015 and left after Brexit in 2017 then Israel then France picking up a language driving cabs everywhere he went. He was astonished at the ignorance he found in the UK during the EU debate. It's not often you meet Bulgarians but if your wife is as cultured as Stanisav then you shouln't be short of things to talk about
    Maybe PB should also make users have "parody" in their name. Although I think here the parody is too obvious to cause any confusion.
    I thought it was PB convention that all taxi drivers were Albanian?
  • Free speech! (Only if it’s correct)

    The head of a Cambridge college has been accused of blocking an academic from promoting an event with a gender-critical feminist.

    Professor Pippa Rogerson, master of Gonville and Caius College, did not allow Professor Arif Ahmed to publicise the event on the college intranet, according to leaked emails.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/4bedf34c-61ea-11ed-80da-2c56e60527b0?shareToken=6e7432055ec7524575ceff922cdbb184
  • kamskikamski Posts: 4,199

    kamski said:

    Roger said:

    One of the reasons EFTA (or similar) was not entertained was simply that Brexiters were so high on their own supply they could not concede that there was any merit at all in doing so.

    After all, there were no downsides to Brexit, only considerable upsides; Minford predicted Brexit would deliver falling prices and economic *growth*; a US trade deal was in the wings, and of course the EU was a sclerotic hellhole anyway.

    Once Brexiters return to reality-based thinking, and there are signs that this has started, EFTA (or similar) starts to look viable.

    FWIW, I said on here before and after the vote I'd be ok with EFTA or EEA-EFTA with an emergency brake on migration.

    It's effectively what Cameron said he was trying to negotiate for (albeit inside the EU) and failed to get.
    Did you say your wife was from Bulgaria? I had a UBER driver from Bulgaria yesterday. He was fluent in four languages. English french Russian and 'Jewish' As he described it -presumably Hebrew. He came to the UK in 2015 and left after Brexit in 2017 then Israel then France picking up a language driving cabs everywhere he went. He was astonished at the ignorance he found in the UK during the EU debate. It's not often you meet Bulgarians but if your wife is as cultured as Stanisav then you shouln't be short of things to talk about
    Maybe PB should also make users have "parody" in their name. Although I think here the parody is too obvious to cause any confusion.
    I thought it was PB convention that all taxi drivers were Albanian?
    UBER driver tho, innit?
    "it's not often you meet Bulgarians..."
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,557
    edited November 2022

    Rejoining would be the 21st century answer to the Restoration of 1660.

    It would further entrench a corrupt governing class, damage representative government, tie us to an absolutist foreign government and need another revolution a few decades later.

    So, yes, the parallels are good.

    Should we also expect another great fire and plague several years afterwards?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769
    edited November 2022
    Fishing said:

    Rejoining would be the 21st century answer to the Restoration of 1660.

    It would further entrench a corrupt governing class, damage representative government, tie us to an absolutist foreign government and need another revolution a few decades later.

    So, yes, the parallels are good.

    Should we also expect another great fire and plague several years afterwards?
    At least these days we don't have national leaders who have tenuous links to Catholicism with about 17 children from dozens of different wom - you're right, the parallels are eerie.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    kamski said:

    Roger said:

    One of the reasons EFTA (or similar) was not entertained was simply that Brexiters were so high on their own supply they could not concede that there was any merit at all in doing so.

    After all, there were no downsides to Brexit, only considerable upsides; Minford predicted Brexit would deliver falling prices and economic *growth*; a US trade deal was in the wings, and of course the EU was a sclerotic hellhole anyway.

    Once Brexiters return to reality-based thinking, and there are signs that this has started, EFTA (or similar) starts to look viable.

    FWIW, I said on here before and after the vote I'd be ok with EFTA or EEA-EFTA with an emergency brake on migration.

    It's effectively what Cameron said he was trying to negotiate for (albeit inside the EU) and failed to get.
    Did you say your wife was from Bulgaria? I had a UBER driver from Bulgaria yesterday. He was fluent in four languages. English french Russian and 'Jewish' As he described it -presumably Hebrew. He came to the UK in 2015 and left after Brexit in 2017 then Israel then France picking up a language driving cabs everywhere he went. He was astonished at the ignorance he found in the UK during the EU debate. It's not often you meet Bulgarians but if your wife is as cultured as Stanisav then you shouln't be short of things to talk about
    Maybe PB should also make users have "parody" in their name. Although I think here the parody is too obvious to cause any confusion.
    That's funny but the really funny thing is that it's real.

    I might try a 'pagan' parody later if I can reconnect with my teenage years. A sort of 'Young Ones' ten years before
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769
    Roger said:

    kamski said:

    Roger said:

    One of the reasons EFTA (or similar) was not entertained was simply that Brexiters were so high on their own supply they could not concede that there was any merit at all in doing so.

    After all, there were no downsides to Brexit, only considerable upsides; Minford predicted Brexit would deliver falling prices and economic *growth*; a US trade deal was in the wings, and of course the EU was a sclerotic hellhole anyway.

    Once Brexiters return to reality-based thinking, and there are signs that this has started, EFTA (or similar) starts to look viable.

    FWIW, I said on here before and after the vote I'd be ok with EFTA or EEA-EFTA with an emergency brake on migration.

    It's effectively what Cameron said he was trying to negotiate for (albeit inside the EU) and failed to get.
    Did you say your wife was from Bulgaria? I had a UBER driver from Bulgaria yesterday. He was fluent in four languages. English french Russian and 'Jewish' As he described it -presumably Hebrew. He came to the UK in 2015 and left after Brexit in 2017 then Israel then France picking up a language driving cabs everywhere he went. He was astonished at the ignorance he found in the UK during the EU debate. It's not often you meet Bulgarians but if your wife is as cultured as Stanisav then you shouln't be short of things to talk about
    Maybe PB should also make users have "parody" in their name. Although I think here the parody is too obvious to cause any confusion.
    That's funny but the really funny thing is that it's real.

    I might try a 'pagan' parody later if I can reconnect with my teenage years. A sort of 'Young Ones' ten years before
    An advertising executive tells the truth?

    Wow... :smile:
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    I note control of the House is coming down to CA and NY, they'll take months to count.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769
    Pulpstar said:

    I note control of the House is coming down to CA and NY, they'll take months to count.

    I think the one thing we can all agree on is that whatever the final count the Republican performance has been pisspoor.

    In these economic circumstances they should have won the House by a huge margin and had at least a four seat majority in the Senate.

    If they can't win big in the midterms in the middle of economic crisis and with a President who, charitably, sometimes looks rather past it then it's very hard to see them retaking the White House.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 38,865

    rcs1000 said:

    I see the House odds have slipped to 1.14 again

    Reviewing the seats this morning I get to a minimum of 219 Republican seats, so I've put more on.

    I really struggle to see how the Republicans don't get to 218/219.

    Right now, they have 211, and they lead in another 10.

    They would need to lose four of these to drop to 217 for the Dems to get a majority.

    That is - statistically - highly unlikely. Well under a 1-in-6 shot, more like a 1-in-100.

    Let's run down the list:

    CO-3 - Lauren Boebert only leads by 0.35%, but we're basically done there. It's over, she's won.
    OR-5 - R+2 with 84% counted.
    CA-4 - R+6 with 53% counted
    CA-13 - R+0.1% with 61% counted
    CA-22 - R+5 with 53% counted
    CA-27 - R+12 with 64% counted
    CA-31 - R+1.2 with 59% counted.
    CA-45 - R+8 with 67% counted
    AZ-6 - R+1 with 83% counted
    NY-22 - R+1.5% with more than 95% counted.

    Two of these races (CO-3 and NY-22) are basically over. There is no realistic proposition that wither CA-27 or CA-45 are going to be anything other than a comfortable R hold.

    So: four are in the bag, meaning they only need another three.

    To lose four of the six competitive seats where the Republicans are leading is highly unlikely. Maybe my 1-in-100 was excessively generous, but it's not far off.
    It also requires all the narrow Democrat leads to go their way too.

    I think it’ll be about 220-215 GOP-Democrat
    I think you're right. That result plus retaining the Senate in the midterms is a great achievement by the Democrats (and Trump it must be said).
    The House market is still quite interesting. It's traded between 1.25 and 1.03 in the last few hours. That's a wider range than you'd expect given the data available.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    Top trolling:

    You still here?! It’s over! Go home![VIDEO]

    https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1591162458952982528

    This place is packed out with Russians at the moment. They could be Ukrainians but I'm not sure it would be appropriate them filling the cafes of Cap Ferrat when their country is at war. Then again if they're Russians you would expect them to keep a low profile.

    The reason I know that they're either is the language and the Russian /Ukrainian men are unmistakable. The women look like Italians with bigger handbags and extra jewelry. I can't distinguish between the Ukrainian and Russian languages and in any event a lot of Ukrainians are Russian speakers. But Cap Ferrat is always stuffed full of both
  • ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I note control of the House is coming down to CA and NY, they'll take months to count.

    I think the one thing we can all agree on is that whatever the final count the Republican performance has been pisspoor.

    In these economic circumstances they should have won the House by a huge margin and had at least a four seat majority in the Senate.

    If they can't win big in the midterms in the middle of economic crisis and with a President who, charitably, sometimes looks rather past it then it's very hard to see them retaking the White House.
    If Trump is the Republican candidate or runs as an Independent then the Democrats should walk it. The Republicans best hope is if Trump is in jail for any one of his crimes.
  • Nicola Sturgeon has told the new prime minister in a “constructive” first meeting that she intends to honour her mandate to hold an independence referendum “with or without the UK government’s agreement”.

    Highlighting Downing Street’s “lack of respect bordering on contempt” for the devolved nations, the first minister said that despite “deep political disagreements” she hoped to work closely with Rishi Sunak and to enjoy a “good relationship”.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/we-will-hold-referendum-come-what-may-nicola-sturgeon-tells-rishi-sunak-r09k2tbgn
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,094
    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    kamski said:

    Roger said:

    One of the reasons EFTA (or similar) was not entertained was simply that Brexiters were so high on their own supply they could not concede that there was any merit at all in doing so.

    After all, there were no downsides to Brexit, only considerable upsides; Minford predicted Brexit would deliver falling prices and economic *growth*; a US trade deal was in the wings, and of course the EU was a sclerotic hellhole anyway.

    Once Brexiters return to reality-based thinking, and there are signs that this has started, EFTA (or similar) starts to look viable.

    FWIW, I said on here before and after the vote I'd be ok with EFTA or EEA-EFTA with an emergency brake on migration.

    It's effectively what Cameron said he was trying to negotiate for (albeit inside the EU) and failed to get.
    Did you say your wife was from Bulgaria? I had a UBER driver from Bulgaria yesterday. He was fluent in four languages. English french Russian and 'Jewish' As he described it -presumably Hebrew. He came to the UK in 2015 and left after Brexit in 2017 then Israel then France picking up a language driving cabs everywhere he went. He was astonished at the ignorance he found in the UK during the EU debate. It's not often you meet Bulgarians but if your wife is as cultured as Stanisav then you shouln't be short of things to talk about
    Maybe PB should also make users have "parody" in their name. Although I think here the parody is too obvious to cause any confusion.
    That's funny but the really funny thing is that it's real.

    I might try a 'pagan' parody later if I can reconnect with my teenage years. A sort of 'Young Ones' ten years before
    An advertising executive tells the truth?

    Wow... :smile:
    He is always legal, decent, honest, and truthful.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,557
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    Yay I’ve been shopping all day. Have I missed anything?

    NV has been called already, by me two guys ago …

    You get through them quickly.

    I meant days. It was a typo.

    I’ve never had a guy, and I don’t intend to start.

    Back to the point though, unlike Arizona the votes just aren’t there for Dems in Nevada this time are they? Possible reasons, they have maxxed out their Latino vote in previous good elections, couldn’t get them out this time. Or they got the Latino vote out again but the non Latino vote has swung against them.

    Something about Team Biden or their policies puts Latino’s off.

    I appreciate not all Latino’s are the same, in Florida Cuba is in their politics, in the West they may have come from Latin America.
    Modern Venezuelans are the most rightwing people I have ever met. They don't just dislike socialism/Marxism - they are violently opposed to it

    They will cross a road just to beat up a lefty, while saying "We experienced this shit, it is absolute shit, now fuck off"

    According to reports a lot of the migrants knocking on Trump's wall are Venezuelans. Republicans should maybe let them in, as they will be solid GOP voters for the next two generations
    Like us and the Hong Kongers. The more of them we let in the better.

    Who'd have thought that the people with the most experience of socialism are the most right-wing?
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,094

    Free speech! (Only if it’s correct)

    The head of a Cambridge college has been accused of blocking an academic from promoting an event with a gender-critical feminist.

    Professor Pippa Rogerson, master of Gonville and Caius College, did not allow Professor Arif Ahmed to publicise the event on the college intranet, according to leaked emails.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/4bedf34c-61ea-11ed-80da-2c56e60527b0?shareToken=6e7432055ec7524575ceff922cdbb184

    Free speech doesn't mean you have to promote private events with which you don't sympathise, does it?
  • kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I see the House odds have slipped to 1.14 again

    Reviewing the seats this morning I get to a minimum of 219 Republican seats, so I've put more on.

    I really struggle to see how the Republicans don't get to 218/219.

    Right now, they have 211, and they lead in another 10.

    They would need to lose four of these to drop to 217 for the Dems to get a majority.

    That is - statistically - highly unlikely. Well under a 1-in-6 shot, more like a 1-in-100.

    Let's run down the list:

    CO-3 - Lauren Boebert only leads by 0.35%, but we're basically done there. It's over, she's won.
    OR-5 - R+2 with 84% counted.
    CA-4 - R+6 with 53% counted
    CA-13 - R+0.1% with 61% counted
    CA-22 - R+5 with 53% counted
    CA-27 - R+12 with 64% counted
    CA-31 - R+1.2 with 59% counted.
    CA-45 - R+8 with 67% counted
    AZ-6 - R+1 with 83% counted
    NY-22 - R+1.5% with more than 95% counted.

    Two of these races (CO-3 and NY-22) are basically over. There is no realistic proposition that wither CA-27 or CA-45 are going to be anything other than a comfortable R hold.

    So: four are in the bag, meaning they only need another three.

    To lose four of the six competitive seats where the Republicans are leading is highly unlikely. Maybe my 1-in-100 was excessively generous, but it's not far off.
    It also requires all the narrow Democrat leads to go their way too.

    I think it’ll be about 220-215 GOP-Democrat
    I think you're right. That result plus retaining the Senate in the midterms is a great achievement by the Democrats (and Trump it must be said).
    The House market is still quite interesting. It's traded between 1.25 and 1.03 in the last few hours. That's a wider range than you'd expect given the data available.
    How confident are the pb herd that there are no independents caucusing with the Rs included in the media R total? Has anyone checked?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    kamski said:

    Roger said:

    One of the reasons EFTA (or similar) was not entertained was simply that Brexiters were so high on their own supply they could not concede that there was any merit at all in doing so.

    After all, there were no downsides to Brexit, only considerable upsides; Minford predicted Brexit would deliver falling prices and economic *growth*; a US trade deal was in the wings, and of course the EU was a sclerotic hellhole anyway.

    Once Brexiters return to reality-based thinking, and there are signs that this has started, EFTA (or similar) starts to look viable.

    FWIW, I said on here before and after the vote I'd be ok with EFTA or EEA-EFTA with an emergency brake on migration.

    It's effectively what Cameron said he was trying to negotiate for (albeit inside the EU) and failed to get.
    Did you say your wife was from Bulgaria? I had a UBER driver from Bulgaria yesterday. He was fluent in four languages. English french Russian and 'Jewish' As he described it -presumably Hebrew. He came to the UK in 2015 and left after Brexit in 2017 then Israel then France picking up a language driving cabs everywhere he went. He was astonished at the ignorance he found in the UK during the EU debate. It's not often you meet Bulgarians but if your wife is as cultured as Stanisav then you shouln't be short of things to talk about
    Maybe PB should also make users have "parody" in their name. Although I think here the parody is too obvious to cause any confusion.
    That's funny but the really funny thing is that it's real.

    I might try a 'pagan' parody later if I can reconnect with my teenage years. A sort of 'Young Ones' ten years before
    An advertising executive tells the truth?

    Wow... :smile:
    Not an advertising executive please! I might get down on all fours to see it from an advertising executives point of view but I'm most definitely not one of them. I am but a humble supplier. I make adverts for them. You're confusing me with David Cameron.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884
    mwadams said:

    Free speech! (Only if it’s correct)

    The head of a Cambridge college has been accused of blocking an academic from promoting an event with a gender-critical feminist.

    Professor Pippa Rogerson, master of Gonville and Caius College, did not allow Professor Arif Ahmed to publicise the event on the college intranet, according to leaked emails.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/4bedf34c-61ea-11ed-80da-2c56e60527b0?shareToken=6e7432055ec7524575ceff922cdbb184

    Free speech doesn't mean you have to promote private events with which you don't sympathise, does it?
    No, but who ‘owns’ the college intranet? Who has privileges to post content on it and who doesn’t? I think this is a fairly weak example of free speech being shut down, but it is symptomatic of a wider trend.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    edited November 2022
    Nooooooooooooooooo.

    Roses stitched up. 🤬
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884

    Nooooooooooooooooo

    The game was lost in the 18th minute,
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769
    Roger said:

    ydoethur said:

    Roger said:

    kamski said:

    Roger said:

    One of the reasons EFTA (or similar) was not entertained was simply that Brexiters were so high on their own supply they could not concede that there was any merit at all in doing so.

    After all, there were no downsides to Brexit, only considerable upsides; Minford predicted Brexit would deliver falling prices and economic *growth*; a US trade deal was in the wings, and of course the EU was a sclerotic hellhole anyway.

    Once Brexiters return to reality-based thinking, and there are signs that this has started, EFTA (or similar) starts to look viable.

    FWIW, I said on here before and after the vote I'd be ok with EFTA or EEA-EFTA with an emergency brake on migration.

    It's effectively what Cameron said he was trying to negotiate for (albeit inside the EU) and failed to get.
    Did you say your wife was from Bulgaria? I had a UBER driver from Bulgaria yesterday. He was fluent in four languages. English french Russian and 'Jewish' As he described it -presumably Hebrew. He came to the UK in 2015 and left after Brexit in 2017 then Israel then France picking up a language driving cabs everywhere he went. He was astonished at the ignorance he found in the UK during the EU debate. It's not often you meet Bulgarians but if your wife is as cultured as Stanisav then you shouln't be short of things to talk about
    Maybe PB should also make users have "parody" in their name. Although I think here the parody is too obvious to cause any confusion.
    That's funny but the really funny thing is that it's real.

    I might try a 'pagan' parody later if I can reconnect with my teenage years. A sort of 'Young Ones' ten years before
    An advertising executive tells the truth?

    Wow... :smile:
    Not an advertising executive please! I might get down on all fours to see it from an advertising executives point of view but I'm most definitely not one of them. I am but a humble supplier. I make adverts for them. You're confusing me with David Cameron.
    Ah well, I can understand that would be offensive.

    I withdraw any suggestion you are like David Cameron.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769

    Nicola Sturgeon has told the new prime minister in a “constructive” first meeting that she intends to honour her mandate to hold an independence referendum “with or without the UK government’s agreement”.

    Highlighting Downing Street’s “lack of respect bordering on contempt” for the devolved nations, the first minister said that despite “deep political disagreements” she hoped to work closely with Rishi Sunak and to enjoy a “good relationship”.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/we-will-hold-referendum-come-what-may-nicola-sturgeon-tells-rishi-sunak-r09k2tbgn

    So if the Supreme Court rules against her, she'll just go ahead anyway?

    Wow.

    Talking of 'lack of respect bordering on contempt...'

    I am starting to think that we might actually see criminal prosecutions here.

    Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of xenophobic scumbags of course.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415

    Nooooooooooooooooo

    The game was lost in the 18th minute,
    Bring me on on the wing, I’ll sort it! And I’ll sort the ref and the TMO.
  • rcs1000 said:

    The Washington Post has Lake as favorite to win in AZ by about 80k votes.

    Latest batch of votes, those dropped off on the day, favoured Hobbs (D)
    increasing her lead to 31K,
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?
    v=sY7IEUGUSAo
    See here for explanation on that batch:

    https://twitter.com/garrett_archer/status/1591333180229189635?s=46&t=3vAoDT1JAAArcisSeJEnPw

    And on the view re Lake

    https://twitter.com/garrett_archer/status/1591271416363900928?s=46&t=NEaeoZWvIkT_gVUejwTPtw

  • kamskikamski Posts: 4,199
    Roger said:

    kamski said:

    Roger said:

    One of the reasons EFTA (or similar) was not entertained was simply that Brexiters were so high on their own supply they could not concede that there was any merit at all in doing so.

    After all, there were no downsides to Brexit, only considerable upsides; Minford predicted Brexit would deliver falling prices and economic *growth*; a US trade deal was in the wings, and of course the EU was a sclerotic hellhole anyway.

    Once Brexiters return to reality-based thinking, and there are signs that this has started, EFTA (or similar) starts to look viable.

    FWIW, I said on here before and after the vote I'd be ok with EFTA or EEA-EFTA with an emergency brake on migration.

    It's effectively what Cameron said he was trying to negotiate for (albeit inside the EU) and failed to get.
    Did you say your wife was from Bulgaria? I had a UBER driver from Bulgaria yesterday. He was fluent in four languages. English french Russian and 'Jewish' As he described it -presumably Hebrew. He came to the UK in 2015 and left after Brexit in 2017 then Israel then France picking up a language driving cabs everywhere he went. He was astonished at the ignorance he found in the UK during the EU debate. It's not often you meet Bulgarians but if your wife is as cultured as Stanisav then you shouln't be short of things to talk about
    Maybe PB should also make users have "parody" in their name. Although I think here the parody is too obvious to cause any confusion.
    That's funny but the really funny thing is that it's real.

    I might try a 'pagan' parody later if I can reconnect with my teenage years. A sort of 'Young Ones' ten years before
    real incident or not, plenty of us do meet Bulgarians reasonably often, and even if not manage to avoid making hilarious generalisations on the basis of one conversation with "Stanisav"

    "It's not often you meet Welsh people but if your wife is as cultured as Brian then you shouldn't be short of things to talk about"

    gotta be a parody account
  • Mr. Doethur, may be what she wants.

    Brave Scottish 'patriots' subjugated by evil British 'law'. Booo!
  • mwadams said:

    Free speech! (Only if it’s correct)

    The head of a Cambridge college has been accused of blocking an academic from promoting an event with a gender-critical feminist.

    Professor Pippa Rogerson, master of Gonville and Caius College, did not allow Professor Arif Ahmed to publicise the event on the college intranet, according to leaked emails.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/4bedf34c-61ea-11ed-80da-2c56e60527b0?shareToken=6e7432055ec7524575ceff922cdbb184

    Free speech doesn't mean you have to promote private events with which you don't sympathise, does it?
    Writing to college members telling them the speaker’s views are “offensive, insulting and hateful” is not policing “Free Speech”?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 6,778
    stodge said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Solar energy firm Toucan has fallen into administration after racking up more than half a billion pounds in debt to a local authority in Essex, England https://trib.al/1DDI7RZ

    Whiskey, Tango, Foxtrot.

    Given what's happened in the Electricity market, solar farms ought to be making unprecedented windfall profits, not falling into bankruptcy.

    Something very, very dodgy has surely happened there. Hope it gets a criminal investigation.
    More to the point WTF was Essex County Council doing lending £665 million to a commercial entity?

    Think it was Thurrock Council
    (checks, yes it was: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/nov/11/solar-farm-owner-toucan-energy-enters-administration-amid-thurrock-scandal).

    As for why... I've not been following the scandal in detail, but there have been a few cases of councils doing questionable investments in the hope that the profits will prop up the council budget. After all, if your government grants are falling and you aren't allowed to raise Council Tax much and you need more money to fund social care, what are you meant to do?
    How about using the money you have to fund social care rather than pissing it away in dodgy dealings?
    Councils are businesses too. If the money they have isn't sufficient, shouldn't they try to increase their income?

    Unfortunately, they can't raise Council Tax because the Government won't let them - they can't dispose of assets because the funds raised can't be used to fund services and they can't borrow from the Public Works Loan Board to invest in Investment Property or other similar investments because the Government again won't let them.

    it seems curious a Conservative Government won't allow Conservative-run
    councils to act in a more overtly business like way.

    The next stage for struggling Councils is a Section 114 notice and the Government then sends in Commissioners to tell you how to run your council.
    There’s a fundamental misconception in your analysis. Councils are not businesses.

    Yes they should spend wisely, be careful how they allocate capital, keep overheads to a minimum and seek to enhance growth. That’s all standard stuff.

    But they raise taxes in order to fund public services. They are not raising taxes to provide a pool of capital for investment.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,415
    No. 😭
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,176

    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I note control of the House is coming down to CA and NY, they'll take months to count.

    I think the one thing we can all agree on is that whatever the final count the Republican performance has been pisspoor.

    In these economic circumstances they should have won the House by a huge margin and had at least a four seat majority in the Senate.

    If they can't win big in the midterms in the middle of economic crisis and with a President who, charitably, sometimes looks rather past it then it's very hard to see them retaking the White House.
    If Trump is the Republican candidate or runs as an Independent then the Democrats should walk it. The Republicans best hope is if Trump is in jail for any one of his crimes.
    The Republicans’ best hope is if Trump dies. All the investigations go away. They can appeal to his fans by saying how great he was, but they can get a better candidate in place.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 6,778

    stodge said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Solar energy firm Toucan has fallen into administration after racking up more than half a billion pounds in debt to a local authority in Essex, England https://trib.al/1DDI7RZ

    Whiskey, Tango, Foxtrot.

    Given what's happened in the Electricity market, solar farms ought to be making unprecedented windfall profits, not falling into bankruptcy.

    Something very, very dodgy has surely happened there. Hope it gets a criminal investigation.
    More to the point WTF was Essex County Council doing lending £665 million to a commercial entity?

    Think it was Thurrock Council
    (checks, yes it was: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/nov/11/solar-farm-owner-toucan-energy-enters-administration-amid-thurrock-scandal).

    As for why... I've not been following the scandal in detail, but there have been a few cases of councils doing questionable investments in the hope that the profits will prop up the council budget. After all, if your government grants are falling and you aren't allowed to raise Council Tax much and you need more money to fund social care, what are you meant to do?
    How about using the money you have to fund social care rather than pissing it away in dodgy dealings?
    Councils are businesses too. If the money they have isn't sufficient, shouldn't they try to increase their income?

    Unfortunately, they can't raise Council Tax because the Government won't let them - they can't dispose of assets because the funds raised can't be used to fund services and they can't borrow from the Public Works Loan Board to invest in Investment Property or other similar investments because the Government again won't let them.

    it seems curious a Conservative Government won't allow Conservative-run councils to act in a more overtly business like way.

    The next stage for struggling Councils is a Section 114 notice and the Government then sends in Commissioners to tell you how to run your council.
    The Council should have a fiduciary duty to use the taxes it has raised, for the purposes it is responsible to deal with, not to try and abuse that cash by pumping it into get rich quick scams.
    There is a grey area. I can imagine this started as an economic development grant - which is plausible. But they clearly got in well over their heads (and I am just as critical as Surrey - I think, sorry @JohnO if I am wrong - and their adventures in the world of commercial property)
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884
    You’d never give it, but considering England drove three line outs over the line for tries, that cynical penalty to bring the maul down suggests a case for a penalty try.
    Cheating Kiwis. Same as always.
    They did not deserve to win that.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    edited November 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    This is the first item on The Times website:

    "Care homes and hospitals told to stop shutting out visitors" (£)

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/care-homes-and-hospitals-told-to-stop-shutting-out-visitors-bh25sp5jw

    It was back in May 2020 when I wrote to Whately about this (no reply).

    An extract from my letter: "For the first time in 60 years of marriage my parents were not able to be together on their wedding anniversary. It is the most basic of human rights for a person to see their spouse, children and grandchildren."

    The situation, though much better in most homes, is still an outrage. And now she acts, two years too late, citing her own personal experience.

    Boils my piss (to coin a phrase).
  • kamskikamski Posts: 4,199

    kinabalu said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I see the House odds have slipped to 1.14 again

    Reviewing the seats this morning I get to a minimum of 219 Republican seats, so I've put more on.

    I really struggle to see how the Republicans don't get to 218/219.

    Right now, they have 211, and they lead in another 10.

    They would need to lose four of these to drop to 217 for the Dems to get a majority.

    That is - statistically - highly unlikely. Well under a 1-in-6 shot, more like a 1-in-100.

    Let's run down the list:

    CO-3 - Lauren Boebert only leads by 0.35%, but we're basically done there. It's over, she's won.
    OR-5 - R+2 with 84% counted.
    CA-4 - R+6 with 53% counted
    CA-13 - R+0.1% with 61% counted
    CA-22 - R+5 with 53% counted
    CA-27 - R+12 with 64% counted
    CA-31 - R+1.2 with 59% counted.
    CA-45 - R+8 with 67% counted
    AZ-6 - R+1 with 83% counted
    NY-22 - R+1.5% with more than 95% counted.

    Two of these races (CO-3 and NY-22) are basically over. There is no realistic proposition that wither CA-27 or CA-45 are going to be anything other than a comfortable R hold.

    So: four are in the bag, meaning they only need another three.

    To lose four of the six competitive seats where the Republicans are leading is highly unlikely. Maybe my 1-in-100 was excessively generous, but it's not far off.
    It also requires all the narrow Democrat leads to go their way too.

    I think it’ll be about 220-215 GOP-Democrat
    I think you're right. That result plus retaining the Senate in the midterms is a great achievement by the Democrats (and Trump it must be said).
    The House market is still quite interesting. It's traded between 1.25 and 1.03 in the last few hours. That's a wider range than you'd expect given the data available.
    How confident are the pb herd that there are no independents caucusing with the Rs included in the media R total? Has anyone checked?
    Currently no independents/third party in the House, so far as I can see.

    R majority currently 1.21 to back on BF. Interesting.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,964
    edited November 2022

    ydoethur said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I note control of the House is coming down to CA and NY, they'll take months to count.

    I think the one thing we can all agree on is that whatever the final count the Republican performance has been pisspoor.

    In these economic circumstances they should have won the House by a huge margin and had at least a four seat majority in the Senate.

    If they can't win big in the midterms in the middle of economic crisis and with a President who, charitably, sometimes looks rather past it then it's very hard to see them retaking the White House.
    If Trump is the Republican candidate or runs as an Independent then the Democrats should walk it. The Republicans best hope is if Trump is in jail for any one of his crimes.
    The Republicans’ best hope is if Trump dies. All the investigations go away. They can appeal to his fans by saying how great he was, but they can get a better candidate in place.
    If you want to be really brutal, he needs to be assassinated. "All that unfinished business, al that lost promise - robbed from us!"

    (They still wouldn't touch gun control.)
  • Scotland’s finest:

    An SNP MP who sneered at a barrister during a legal case is “disgraceful” and “spectacularly unwise” a leading Scottish lawyer his said.

    John Nicolson used Twitter to decry Karon Monaghan, who questioned him at a tribunal which is deciding if the gay rights group LGB Alliance should be stripped of its charitable status.

    His description of the “obviously agitated” Monaghan “who struggled questioning me” was condemned by Roddy Dunlop, the dean of the faculty of advocates. The faculty is the independent body for advocates in Scotland.

    Addressing Nicolson on Twitter, Dunlop said: “(F)or you to refer to one of UK’s leading equality KCs in this way is disgraceful; & for you to comment on a case where you testified before judgement is spectacularly unwise.”


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/snp-mp-in-verbal-attack-on-barrister-is-a-disgrace-r0jwmqwnj
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    Have we done this?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/environment/2022/11/09/rishi-sunak-rules-climate-reparations-amid-ongoing-cop27-row/

    "Ed Miliband, the shadow climate secretary, saying the UK has a “historical responsibility” to pay out"
  • stodge said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Solar energy firm Toucan has fallen into administration after racking up more than half a billion pounds in debt to a local authority in Essex, England https://trib.al/1DDI7RZ

    Whiskey, Tango, Foxtrot.

    Given what's happened in the Electricity market, solar farms ought to be making unprecedented windfall profits, not falling into bankruptcy.

    Something very, very dodgy has surely happened there. Hope it gets a criminal investigation.
    More to the point WTF was Essex County Council doing lending £665 million to a commercial entity?

    Think it was Thurrock Council
    (checks, yes it was: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/nov/11/solar-farm-owner-toucan-energy-enters-administration-amid-thurrock-scandal).

    As for why... I've not been following the scandal in detail, but there have been a few cases of councils doing questionable investments in the hope that the profits will prop up the council budget. After all, if your government grants are falling and you aren't allowed to raise Council Tax much and you need more money to fund social care, what are you meant to do?
    How about using the money you have to fund social care rather than pissing it away in dodgy dealings?
    Councils are businesses too. If the money they have isn't sufficient, shouldn't they try to increase their income?

    Unfortunately, they can't raise Council Tax because the Government won't let them - they can't dispose of assets because the funds raised can't be used to fund services and they can't borrow from the Public Works Loan Board to invest in Investment Property or other similar investments because the Government again won't let them.

    it seems curious a Conservative Government won't allow Conservative-run
    councils to act in a more overtly business like way.

    The next stage for struggling Councils is a Section 114 notice and the Government then sends in Commissioners to tell you how to run your council.
    There’s a fundamental misconception in your analysis. Councils are not businesses.

    Yes they should spend wisely, be careful how they allocate capital, keep overheads to a minimum and seek to enhance growth. That’s all standard stuff.

    But they raise taxes in order to fund public services. They are not raising taxes to provide a pool of capital for investment.
    The catch with that argument- which is a strong one- is the practical cap on Council Tax increases (thanks to the referendum rule) coupled with big increases in social care needs. The numbers don't really add up, and even some non-messed up councils are looking nervously over their shoulders at looming Section 114 notices. (Special Measures or bankruptcy for councils).

    Desperate organisations are like desperate people. They will go foolishly deep into grey areas to try and make things work.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,684

    ...

    tlg86 said:

    Poor Beth Mead:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/63604622

    England forward Beth Mead says her recent comments about diversity in the Lionesses squad were "not a true reflection" of her values.

    Her crime? For daring to speak the truth.

    Nice of Ian Wright to give her a call and bully her into changing her stance. Makes one feel all warm and fuzzy.
    usual bollox, if they are not picking the best players there is an issue, otherwise there is no way you should be selected by your skin colour just to get a quota.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 9,653
    I had some sympathy with ER when it was created. But now? According to Roger Hallam:

    ‘So what will happen is episodes where someone, a gang of young men, come into your house, they take your girlfriend, they take your mother, they put her on to the table, and they gang rape her, in front of you, and then after that they take a hot stick and they poke out your eyes and they blind you. That’s the reality of the annihilation project that you face.’
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,769
    malcolmg said:

    ...

    tlg86 said:

    Poor Beth Mead:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/63604622

    England forward Beth Mead says her recent comments about diversity in the Lionesses squad were "not a true reflection" of her values.

    Her crime? For daring to speak the truth.

    Nice of Ian Wright to give her a call and bully her into changing her stance. Makes one feel all warm and fuzzy.
    usual bollox, if they are not picking the best players there is an issue, otherwise there is no way you should be selected by your skin colour just to get a quota.
    I don't think it's usual to have bollox in women's football.

    Of course, who knows where we're headed on that at this moment?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    ...

    tlg86 said:

    Poor Beth Mead:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/63604622

    England forward Beth Mead says her recent comments about diversity in the Lionesses squad were "not a true reflection" of her values.

    Her crime? For daring to speak the truth.

    Nice of Ian Wright to give her a call and bully her into changing her stance. Makes one feel all warm and fuzzy.
    usual bollox, if they are not picking the best players there is an issue, otherwise there is no way you should be selected by your skin colour just to get a quota.
    I don't think it's usual to have bollox in women's football.

    Of course, who knows where we're headed on that at this moment?
    Spot the ball competition?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884
    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    ...

    tlg86 said:

    Poor Beth Mead:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/63604622

    England forward Beth Mead says her recent comments about diversity in the Lionesses squad were "not a true reflection" of her values.

    Her crime? For daring to speak the truth.

    Nice of Ian Wright to give her a call and bully her into changing her stance. Makes one feel all warm and fuzzy.
    usual bollox, if they are not picking the best players there is an issue, otherwise there is no way you should be selected by your skin colour just to get a quota.
    I don't think it's usual to have bollox in women's football.

    Of course, who knows where we're headed on that at this moment?
    Many long years ago I played netball in a mixed league in NZ. Each team had to have a minimum of three female players.
    There was one team of trans players (or at least, chaps who preferred to play netball as women). They were allowed to play with any number of testicles on the pitch at a time…
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,462
    edited November 2022
    Stocky said:

    I had some sympathy with ER when it was created. But now? According to Roger Hallam:

    ‘So what will happen is episodes where someone, a gang of young men, come into your house, they take your girlfriend, they take your mother, they put her on to the table, and they gang rape her, in front of you, and then after that they take a hot stick and they poke out your eyes and they blind you. That’s the reality of the annihilation project that you face.’

    I find it quite easy to maintain some sympathy for them, find them a pain at times and expect a lot of their activists to be twats.

    Yes they are annoying at times, but on the big picture they are broadly right, apart from not recognising the progress made to date. They are part of ensuring we continue to make and accelerate progress, which is more important than the annoyance.

    It is also a credit to our society that they can do what they do.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    kamski said:

    Roger said:

    kamski said:

    Roger said:

    One of the reasons EFTA (or similar) was not entertained was simply that Brexiters were so high on their own supply they could not concede that there was any merit at all in doing so.

    After all, there were no downsides to Brexit, only considerable upsides; Minford predicted Brexit would deliver falling prices and economic *growth*; a US trade deal was in the wings, and of course the EU was a sclerotic hellhole anyway.

    Once Brexiters return to reality-based thinking, and there are signs that this has started, EFTA (or similar) starts to look viable.

    FWIW, I said on here before and after the vote I'd be ok with EFTA or EEA-EFTA with an emergency brake on migration.

    It's effectively what Cameron said he was trying to negotiate for (albeit inside the EU) and failed to get.
    Did you say your wife was from Bulgaria? I had a UBER driver from Bulgaria yesterday. He was fluent in four languages. English french Russian and 'Jewish' As he described it -presumably Hebrew. He came to the UK in 2015 and left after Brexit in 2017 then Israel then France picking up a language driving cabs everywhere he went. He was astonished at the ignorance he found in the UK during the EU debate. It's not often you meet Bulgarians but if your wife is as cultured as Stanisav then you shouln't be short of things to talk about
    Maybe PB should also make users have "parody" in their name. Although I think here the parody is too obvious to cause any confusion.
    That's funny but the really funny thing is that it's real.

    I might try a 'pagan' parody later if I can reconnect with my teenage years. A sort of 'Young Ones' ten years before
    real incident or not, plenty of us do meet Bulgarians reasonably often, and even if not manage to avoid making hilarious generalisations on the basis of one conversation with "Stanisav"

    "It's not often you meet Welsh people but if your wife is as cultured as Brian then you shouldn't be short of things to talk about"

    gotta be a parody account
    Nice post but sorry. As it happens i don't think i have. i asked him where he was from and he asked me to guess. East European was as close as I could get. I can't think I've knowingly met a Bulgarian.It's quite nice to learn something new on a taxi ride. Like (nearly?) all Bulgarians speak Russian.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 14,884
    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    ...

    tlg86 said:

    Poor Beth Mead:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/63604622

    England forward Beth Mead says her recent comments about diversity in the Lionesses squad were "not a true reflection" of her values.

    Her crime? For daring to speak the truth.

    Nice of Ian Wright to give her a call and bully her into changing her stance. Makes one feel all warm and fuzzy.
    usual bollox, if they are not picking the best players there is an issue, otherwise there is no way you should be selected by your skin colour just to get a quota.
    I don't think it's usual to have bollox in women's football.

    Of course, who knows where we're headed on that at this moment?
    Spot the ball competition?
    Complete tangent - I was gobsmacked to discover that spot the ball competitions were won, not based on where a ball had been removed, but by someone deciding where it should have been! The closest entry to that won.
  • Roger said:

    One of the reasons EFTA (or similar) was not entertained was simply that Brexiters were so high on their own supply they could not concede that there was any merit at all in doing so.

    After all, there were no downsides to Brexit, only considerable upsides; Minford predicted Brexit would deliver falling prices and economic *growth*; a US trade deal was in the wings, and of course the EU was a sclerotic hellhole anyway.

    Once Brexiters return to reality-based thinking, and there are signs that this has started, EFTA (or similar) starts to look viable.

    FWIW, I said on here before and after the vote I'd be ok with EFTA or EEA-EFTA with an emergency brake on migration.

    It's effectively what Cameron said he was trying to negotiate for (albeit inside the EU) and failed to get.
    Did you say your wife was from Bulgaria? I had a UBER driver from Bulgaria yesterday. He was fluent in four languages. English french Russian and 'Jewish' As he described it -presumably Hebrew. He came to the UK in 2015 and left after Brexit in 2017 then Israel then France picking up a language driving cabs everywhere he went. He was astonished at the ignorance he found in the UK during the EU debate. It's not often you meet Bulgarians but if your wife is as cultured as Stanisav then you shouln't be short of things to talk about
    With respect, what does the national origin of my wife have to do it?

    This is very patronising.

    The insinuation you're making is I must be some sort of hypocrite because I married a foreigner, and being a "Leaver" means you're a blood and soil nationalist and that's only consistent if you don't believe in associating with anyone who's not true born English.

    That says a lot about your prejudices, not mine.

    (by the way, she voted Leave)
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,684

    Roger said:

    One of the reasons EFTA (or similar) was not entertained was simply that Brexiters were so high on their own supply they could not concede that there was any merit at all in doing so.

    After all, there were no downsides to Brexit, only considerable upsides; Minford predicted Brexit would deliver falling prices and economic *growth*; a US trade deal was in the wings, and of course the EU was a sclerotic hellhole anyway.

    Once Brexiters return to reality-based thinking, and there are signs that this has started, EFTA (or similar) starts to look viable.

    FWIW, I said on here before and after the vote I'd be ok with EFTA or EEA-EFTA with an emergency brake on migration.

    It's effectively what Cameron said he was trying to negotiate for (albeit inside the EU) and failed to get.
    Did you say your wife was from Bulgaria? I had a UBER driver from Bulgaria yesterday. He was fluent in four languages. English french Russian and 'Jewish' As he described it -presumably Hebrew. He came to the UK in 2015 and left after Brexit in 2017 then Israel then France picking up a language driving cabs everywhere he went. He was astonished at the ignorance he found in the UK during the EU debate. It's not often you meet Bulgarians but if your wife is as cultured as Stanisav then you shouln't be short of things to talk about
    With respect, what does the national origin of my wife have to do it?

    This is very patronising.

    The insinuation you're making is I must be some sort of hypocrite because I married a foreigner, and being a "Leaver" means you're a blood and soil nationalist and that's only consistent if you don't believe in associating with anyone who's not true born English.

    That says a lot about your prejudices, not mine.

    (by the way, she voted Leave)
    Bit touchy to a compliment there!
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,351
    mwadams said:

    Free speech! (Only if it’s correct)

    The head of a Cambridge college has been accused of blocking an academic from promoting an event with a gender-critical feminist.

    Professor Pippa Rogerson, master of Gonville and Caius College, did not allow Professor Arif Ahmed to publicise the event on the college intranet, according to leaked emails.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/4bedf34c-61ea-11ed-80da-2c56e60527b0?shareToken=6e7432055ec7524575ceff922cdbb184

    Free speech doesn't mean you have to promote private events with which you don't sympathise, does it?
    Could someone remind me which side and which, and which one I support?

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Jonathan said:

    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    ...

    tlg86 said:

    Poor Beth Mead:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/63604622

    England forward Beth Mead says her recent comments about diversity in the Lionesses squad were "not a true reflection" of her values.

    Her crime? For daring to speak the truth.

    Nice of Ian Wright to give her a call and bully her into changing her stance. Makes one feel all warm and fuzzy.
    usual bollox, if they are not picking the best players there is an issue, otherwise there is no way you should be selected by your skin colour just to get a quota.
    I don't think it's usual to have bollox in women's football.

    Of course, who knows where we're headed on that at this moment?
    Spot the ball competition?
    Complete tangent - I was gobsmacked to discover that spot the ball competitions were won, not based on where a ball had been removed, but by someone deciding where it should have been! The closest entry to that won.
    Gosh. Bit like "shuffle" music programs (true randomness is not random enough, so you have to tweak it.)
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 41,684
    ydoethur said:

    malcolmg said:

    ...

    tlg86 said:

    Poor Beth Mead:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/63604622

    England forward Beth Mead says her recent comments about diversity in the Lionesses squad were "not a true reflection" of her values.

    Her crime? For daring to speak the truth.

    Nice of Ian Wright to give her a call and bully her into changing her stance. Makes one feel all warm and fuzzy.
    usual bollox, if they are not picking the best players there is an issue, otherwise there is no way you should be selected by your skin colour just to get a quota.
    I don't think it's usual to have bollox in women's football.

    Of course, who knows where we're headed on that at this moment?
    You are living in last century ydoethur , nowadays anyone supposedly can be a woman, with or without bollox
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Stocky said:

    Have we done this?

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/environment/2022/11/09/rishi-sunak-rules-climate-reparations-amid-ongoing-cop27-row/

    "Ed Miliband, the shadow climate secretary, saying the UK has a “historical responsibility” to pay out"

    This is bizarre, dressing it up as historical reparations when you could call it insurance for the future, is a red rag to the imperialists. I wonder whether this is deliberate on the part of critical race theorists because reparations is more of a humiliation for whitey.
This discussion has been closed.