This looks like it 'could' be another in a list of recent examples where pundits got it wrong.
@rcs1000 called this right when he predicted the Dems would outperform the recent doomsday scenarios.
And in the UK: I am certain that Labour's chances of an overall majority after 2024 are significantly underestimated by pundits. There's money to be made betting against the lemmings. But you need to know what you're doing and have nerves of steel.
Someone just mentioned that on the show I was listening to - what if De Santis wins by a mile in Florida, which looks likely, but the Trump-endorsed candidates have a relatively poor night elsewhere. The momentum would definitely be with De Santis.
Still no numbers for Nevada, which looks like being key in the Senate race. Arizona also very close, although Walker might win Georgia without a runoff.
This looks like it 'could' be another in a list of recent examples where pundits got it wrong.
@rcs1000 called this right when he predicted the Dems would outperform the recent doomsday scenarios.
And in the UK: I am certain that Labour's chances of an overall majority after 2024 are significantly underestimated by pundits. There's money to be made betting against the lemmings. But you need to know what you're doing and have nerves of steel.
Someone just mentioned that on the show I was listening to - what if De Santis wins by a mile in Florida, which looks likely, but the Trump-endorsed candidates have a relatively poor night elsewhere. The momentum would definitely be with De Santis.
Still no numbers for Nevada, which looks like being key in the Senate race. Arizona also very close, although Walker might win Georgia without a runoff.
Trump led GA by 2% with over 90% counted and lost.
Someone just mentioned that on the show I was listening to - what if De Santis wins by a mile in Florida, which looks likely, but the Trump-endorsed candidates have a relatively poor night elsewhere. The momentum would definitely be with De Santis.
Still no numbers for Nevada, which looks like being key in the Senate race. Arizona also very close, although Walker might win Georgia without a runoff.
I think RDS has this now. In hindsight, it might be the reason why Trump held off an announcement pre-election
Someone just mentioned that on the show I was listening to - what if De Santis wins by a mile in Florida, which looks likely, but the Trump-endorsed candidates have a relatively poor night elsewhere. The momentum would definitely be with De Santis.
Still no numbers for Nevada, which looks like being key in the Senate race. Arizona also very close, although Walker might win Georgia without a runoff.
I think RDS has this now. In hindsight, it might be the reason why Trump held off an announcement pre-election
Yes but don't we think that Trump is capable of causing RDS a lot of trouble? If this is the way it goes, will the GOP be able to persuade Trump of backing RDS? Or might we have a 3rd big hitter on the ballot, Trump going solo and drawing off support from the Republicans?
It is amazing how so many outcomes are still possible.
Even if we assume PA has gone Democrat, we still have no idea at all about the results of NV, AZ, and GA.
Nevada, there's not a single vote counted. Arizona, we only have early votes (which are probably significantly more Democratic than on the day) and Georgia, which is neck and neck, with 10% left to run, and which is more likely than not to end up in a run-off. (Albeit I think Warnock is now favoured to be leading).
If I were to guess (which I am about to...) I would say:
NV - R AZ - D (by a whisker) GA - Run-off with the Dems leading
But it's far from impossible that the Republicans could win NV and AZ tonight, and GA to go to a run off.
Or, alternatively, for the Dems to hold all thee this evening.
It is amazing how so many outcomes are still possible.
Even if we assume PA has gone Democrat, we still have no idea at all about the results of NV, AZ, and GA.
Nevada, there's not a single vote counted. Arizona, we only have early votes (which are probably significantly more Democratic than on the day) and Georgia, which is neck and neck, with 10% left to run, and which is more likely than not to end up in a run-off. (Albeit I think Warnock is now favoured to be leading).
If I were to guess (which I am about to...) I would say:
NV - R AZ - D (by a whisker) GA - Run-off with the Dems leading
But it's far from impossible that the Republicans could win NV and AZ tonight, and GA to go to a run off.
Or, alternatively, for the Dems to hold all thee this evening.
Well done on calling this night. You got this right, which is never easy when you're going against the flow.
Someone just mentioned that on the show I was listening to - what if De Santis wins by a mile in Florida, which looks likely, but the Trump-endorsed candidates have a relatively poor night elsewhere. The momentum would definitely be with De Santis.
Still no numbers for Nevada, which looks like being key in the Senate race. Arizona also very close, although Walker might win Georgia without a runoff.
I think RDS has this now. In hindsight, it might be the reason why Trump held off an announcement pre-election
The DeSantis paradox is that while DeSantis might look attractive against Trump in a two-horse race, if Trump falls, then it opens the door for other non-Trump Republicans to seek the nomination.
Someone just mentioned that on the show I was listening to - what if De Santis wins by a mile in Florida, which looks likely, but the Trump-endorsed candidates have a relatively poor night elsewhere. The momentum would definitely be with De Santis.
Still no numbers for Nevada, which looks like being key in the Senate race. Arizona also very close, although Walker might win Georgia without a runoff.
I think RDS has this now. In hindsight, it might be the reason why Trump held off an announcement pre-election
The DeSantis paradox is that while DeSantis might look attractive against Trump in a two-horse race, if Trump falls, then it opens the door for other non-Trump Republicans to seek the nomination.
Very true and then the real winner is Joe Biden. Whilst the Republican candidates are knocking spots off one another, Joe Biden cruises through.
This is not meant in bad taste but if Joe Biden stays alive he wins in 2024. Worth betting on now.
(Caveat: a bad time for all incumbents with the economic situation.)
While officials said it could take awhile for counties to begin uploading results after the polls close, they did not make predictions for the pace of reporting. (In 2020, it took three days for 90 percent of the vote to be reported.) The state conducts a predominantly mail-ballot election, and ballots postmarked by Election Day have four days to arrive.
Which I think means that (unless Laxalt or Cortez Mastro really hits it out the park), that we won't know Nevada for a while.
Warnock is about to go back into the lead in GA. I don't think there's enough left to get him over 50%... but I think he's highly likely to lead Walker into the runoff.
It is amazing how so many outcomes are still possible.
Even if we assume PA has gone Democrat, we still have no idea at all about the results of NV, AZ, and GA.
Nevada, there's not a single vote counted. Arizona, we only have early votes (which are probably significantly more Democratic than on the day) and Georgia, which is neck and neck, with 10% left to run, and which is more likely than not to end up in a run-off. (Albeit I think Warnock is now favoured to be leading).
If I were to guess (which I am about to...) I would say:
NV - R AZ - D (by a whisker) GA - Run-off with the Dems leading
But it's far from impossible that the Republicans could win NV and AZ tonight, and GA to go to a run off.
Or, alternatively, for the Dems to hold all thee this evening.
Well done on calling this night. You got this right, which is never easy when you're going against the flow.
I was going to lump on Fetterman @ 6/4, a couple of days ago.
Then I did my research and watched his campaign performances….
American democratic politics is in a terrible place to have that guy be the voters preferred option.
C’mon America. Sort yourself out.
Note to self in future betting: trust the polls.
Fetterman and Oz are two of the worst candidates in the whole election. As was highlighted in the previous thread, they’ve collectively spent $300m on the race, which tells you everything about the rotten state of US politics.
I was going to lump on Fetterman @ 6/4, a couple of days ago.
Then I did my research and watched his campaign performances….
American democratic politics is in a terrible place to have that guy be the voters preferred option.
C’mon America. Sort yourself out.
Note to self in future betting: trust the polls.
Fetterman and Oz are two of the worst candidates in the whole election. As was highlighted in the previous thread, they’ve collectively spent $300m on the race, which tells you everything about the rotten state of US politics.
Fetterman only won because the Republican Governor candidate decided that he should run the race on the key issue of whether the Jews actually ran America.
It is amazing how so many outcomes are still possible.
Even if we assume PA has gone Democrat, we still have no idea at all about the results of NV, AZ, and GA.
Nevada, there's not a single vote counted. Arizona, we only have early votes (which are probably significantly more Democratic than on the day) and Georgia, which is neck and neck, with 10% left to run, and which is more likely than not to end up in a run-off. (Albeit I think Warnock is now favoured to be leading).
If I were to guess (which I am about to...) I would say:
NV - R AZ - D (by a whisker) GA - Run-off with the Dems leading
But it's far from impossible that the Republicans could win NV and AZ tonight, and GA to go to a run off.
Or, alternatively, for the Dems to hold all thee this evening.
Well done on calling this night. You got this right, which is never easy when you're going against the flow.
In Arizona, there's one county (La Paz) which is now complete and that is showing Masters lagging Trump's 2020 share by 6 percentage points. Early days, but good news for Kelly.
I was going to lump on Fetterman @ 6/4, a couple of days ago.
Then I did my research and watched his campaign performances….
American democratic politics is in a terrible place to have that guy be the voters preferred option.
C’mon America. Sort yourself out.
Note to self in future betting: trust the polls.
Fetterman and Oz are two of the worst candidates in the whole election. As was highlighted in the previous thread, they’ve collectively spent $300m on the race, which tells you everything about the rotten state of US politics.
Fetterman only won because the Republican Governor candidate decided that he should run the race on the key issue of whether the Jews actually ran America.
If that's true, and if as a result Democrats retain control of the Senate, does that mean we have to revisit the wisdom of Shapiro "boosting" Mastriano in the Republican primary?
I'm left-leaning but even so, against expectation management and in the midst of an economic crisis during mid-terms, the GOP have under-performed. I wouldn't say 'badly' but others might want to use that adverb.
Really they ought to have done much better than this. I think they need to exorcise the spirit of Donald Trump and reboot.
One can only hope that the Supreme Court (majority) and their backers are suitably chastened, if their overreach has thrown away the traditional mid-term win for their party.
U.S. Senate Candidate Party Votes PercentPct. Mark Kelly*incumbent Democrat 785,323 +57.5%57.5% Blake Masters Republican 549,580 +40.2%40.2 Marc Victor Libertarian 31,153 +2.3%2.3 Total reported 1,366,056
And Warnock (Dem) is now pulling away in Georgia. Might not cross the 50% threshold but this is beginning to look like a relatively good night for the Democrats.
Latest results from 2m ago 92% OF VOTES IN
U.S. Senate Candidate Party Votes PercentPct. Raphael Warnock*incumbent Democrat 1,884,740 +49.36%49.36% Herschel Walker Republican 1,855,077 +48.58%48.58 Chase Oliver Libertarian 78,824 +2.06%2.06
Up early for a 3 day trip to New York and it looks an interesting time to be visiting.
But honestly, the slowness with which Americans count ballots is just bonkers.
It’s totally nuts that there’s going to be several days, maybe even weeks, of awaiting confirmation of the close races.
It’s bad enough that USPS can’t be trusted to deliver ballot papers for several days, but always seems weird that papers can’t be counted overnight, at least for the
The defenders of the system will argue that everyone elected today, doesn’t hold their new office until January, so there doesn’t need to be any urgency - but looking from the outside, the delays add fuel to the fire of those questioning the election results, which has already been seen today from both major parties.
Up early for a 3 day trip to New York and it looks an interesting time to be visiting.
But honestly, the slowness with which Americans count ballots is just bonkers.
It’s totally nuts that there’s going to be several days, maybe even weeks, of awaiting confirmation of the close races.
It’s bad enough that USPS can’t be trusted to deliver ballot papers for several days, but always seems weird that papers can’t be counted overnight, at least for the
The defenders of the system will argue that everyone elected today, doesn’t hold their new office until January, so there doesn’t need to be any urgency - but looking from the outside, the delays add fuel to the fire of those questioning the election results, which has already been seen today from both major parties.
Compare the Brazil presidential election, where the result was close, but effectively beyond dispute within a few hours. (not that I'm necessarily in favour of electronic voting).
I used Herschel Walker as a model when he was an American footballer. I remember him well. I believe he's subsequently gone off the rails and from being a football prodigy he's now a Trump prodigy. He's got to be the bellwether for tonight's election. I think I'll have to hope he loses.
U.S. Senate Candidate Party Votes PercentPct. Catherine Cortez Masto*incumbent Democrat 251,227 +54.3%54.3% Adam Laxalt Republican 198,764 +43.0%43.0 None of these candidates 5,286 +1.1%1.1 Total reported 462,774
And Warnock in Georgia is edging closer to that 50% mark:
Latest results from 1m ago 95% OF VOTES IN
U.S. Senate Candidate Party Votes PercentPct. Raphael Warnock*incumbent Democrat 1,898,479 +49.42%49.42% Herschel Walker Republican 1,863,889 +48.51%48.51 Chase Oliver Libertarian 79,518 +2.07%2.07 Total reported 3,841,886
Arizona officials in Maricopa County on Tuesday said that roughly 20% of their polling sites were experiencing "issues" with tabulation machines just hours after Election Day polls opened.
"Unfortunately we've had some hiccups with about 20% of these tabulators," Chairman to the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors Bill Gates told Fox News.
Gates said an issue has arisen when people attempt to run their ballots through the tabulator and are unable to successfully do so as their ballots are being spit back out at them.
And Warnock in Georgia is edging closer to that 50% mark:
Latest results from 1m ago 95% OF VOTES IN
U.S. Senate Candidate Party Votes PercentPct. Raphael Warnock*incumbent Democrat 1,898,479 +49.42%49.42% Herschel Walker Republican 1,863,889 +48.51%48.51 Chase Oliver Libertarian 79,518 +2.07%2.07 Total reported 3,841,886
I think Warnock's going the end up just short - maybe 49.8/49.9%
Still: given that Walker won't have Kemp's coattails to ride on in a runoff, the Dems can feel reasonably confident.
Does anyone spot a potential rising star in tonight’s field that might challenge Biden for the nomination?
No one will challenge Biden if he is in good health.
Which is why I ask the question! Two more years to Election Day and he’s already wandering around with an ice cream not knowing how many states America has, how to get into his house or what country his son died in.
Holy shit. This would be massive if it ended like this:
Holy fuckknuckles, Ms Boebert's deficit is still around 8,000 votes.
If the Dems gain CO-3, it would mean that two of the three Republican nutjobs have failed to be reelected (Marjorie Taylor Greene, Madison Cawthorne and Lauren Boebert).
Does anyone spot a potential rising star in tonight’s field that might challenge Biden for the nomination?
No one will challenge Biden if he is in good health.
Which is why I ask the question! Two more years to Election Day and he’s already wandering around with an ice cream not knowing how many states America has, how to get into his house or what country his son died in.
If we're going to start demanding sanity from our leaders, where does it end???
Does anyone spot a potential rising star in tonight’s field that might challenge Biden for the nomination?
No one will challenge Biden if he is in good health.
Which is why I ask the question! Two more years to Election Day and he’s already wandering around with an ice cream not knowing how many states America has, how to get into his house or what country his son died in.
That's good isn't it? The more doolally the less damage he's likely to do. No one wants another Trump
And Warnock in Georgia is edging closer to that 50% mark:
Latest results from 1m ago 95% OF VOTES IN
U.S. Senate Candidate Party Votes PercentPct. Raphael Warnock*incumbent Democrat 1,898,479 +49.42%49.42% Herschel Walker Republican 1,863,889 +48.51%48.51 Chase Oliver Libertarian 79,518 +2.07%2.07 Total reported 3,841,886
I think Warnock's going the end up just short - maybe 49.8/49.9%
Still: given that Walker won't have Kemp's coattails to ride on in a runoff, the Dems can feel reasonably confident.
If Warnock can’t get the win they need, will they send for Allardyce?
Arizona officials in Maricopa County on Tuesday said that roughly 20% of their polling sites were experiencing "issues" with tabulation machines just hours after Election Day polls opened.
"Unfortunately we've had some hiccups with about 20% of these tabulators," Chairman to the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors Bill Gates told Fox News.
Gates said an issue has arisen when people attempt to run their ballots through the tabulator and are unable to successfully do so as their ballots are being spit back out at them.
Well, if they put Bill Gates in charge of the technology…
Holy shit. This would be massive if it ended like this:
Holy fuckknuckles, Ms Boebert's deficit is still around 8,000 votes.
If the Dems gain CO-3, it would mean that two of the three Republican nutjobs have failed to be reelected (Marjorie Taylor Greene, Madison Cawthorne and Lauren Boebert).
My dream would be for the Democrat crazies (aka the Squad) and the Republican crazies to all be defeated.
It is telling that both groups support Putin in his invasion of Ukraine.
I used Herschel Walker as a model when he was an American footballer. I remember him well. I believe he's subsequently gone off the rails and from being a football prodigy he's now a Trump prodigy. He's got to be the bellwether for tonight's election. I think I'll have to hope he loses.
Up early for a 3 day trip to New York and it looks an interesting time to be visiting.
But honestly, the slowness with which Americans count ballots is just bonkers.
It’s totally nuts that there’s going to be several days, maybe even weeks, of awaiting confirmation of the close races.
It’s bad enough that USPS can’t be trusted to deliver ballot papers for several days, but always seems weird that papers can’t be counted overnight, at least for the
The defenders of the system will argue that everyone elected today, doesn’t hold their new office until January, so there doesn’t need to be any urgency - but looking from the outside, the delays add fuel to the fire of those questioning the election results, which has already been seen today from both major parties.
In not a few states, changing the system to delay counting of postal ballots has been a deliberate policy by Republicans, as it helps them cast doubt on results. It’s perfectly possible to do counts quickly if states are prepared to invest the money; most aren’t.
Holy shit. This would be massive if it ended like this:
Holy fuckknuckles, Ms Boebert's deficit is still around 8,000 votes.
If the Dems gain CO-3, it would mean that two of the three Republican nutjobs have failed to be reelected (Marjorie Taylor Greene, Madison Cawthorne and Lauren Boebert).
My dream would be for the Democrat crazies (aka the Squad) and the Republican crazies to all be defeated.
It is telling that both groups support Putin in his invasion of Ukraine.
I had a thought last night about a very unlikely scenario:
Say the Republicans win, and characteristically ignore the lessons of history and stop US support for Ukraine.
That means Ukraine is screwed (unless we think Europe and others can still support Ukraine enough to prevent Russia taking it over.
But Russia doing that will provoke massive instability in Europe. It will threaten the Baltic and other states, and further hurt their economies.
And who rather likes Europe's economies? China. And which country has been going somewhat colder against Russia over recent weeks? China.
So might China decide it is worth the cost and decide to fill the gap the US has left? Geopolitically it might be a positive thing for them to do, especially amongst some of their biggest customers.
I'm not saying this would happen; it is very unlikely. But it is possible.
Does anyone spot a potential rising star in tonight’s field that might challenge Biden for the nomination?
No one will challenge Biden if he is in good health.
Except that he’s very clearly not in good heath.
This is one of these election results that may be phyrric in hindsight,
Tonight looks good for Biden. He channeled the threats to democracy (probably more than abortion rights) and it seems to have worked. He's probably lost the House but may keep the Senate.
That probably encourages him to run in 2024. That might not be the best for the Democrats.
More importantly, I think these results sink Trump in the GOP. His candidates looked to have failed massively, It's clear the stink around him deters voters.
Much of the Democrat strategy has been built around the assumption that Trump will run in 2024. But what happens if he doesn't? Ok, you face DeSantis. Is he as scary to many people? No. Florida is seen as somewhat of a success story. Plus he is clearly not off the charts as Trump.
So what may happen, in 2024, is that you have a Biden who feels emboldened to run against DeSantis. I think the latter wins that, and wins it quite handily.
Holy shit. This would be massive if it ended like this:
Holy fuckknuckles, Ms Boebert's deficit is still around 8,000 votes.
If the Dems gain CO-3, it would mean that two of the three Republican nutjobs have failed to be reelected (Marjorie Taylor Greene, Madison Cawthorne and Lauren Boebert).
My dream would be for the Democrat crazies (aka the Squad) and the Republican crazies to all be defeated.
It is telling that both groups support Putin in his invasion of Ukraine.
I had a thought last night about a very unlikely scenario:
Say the Republicans win, and characteristically ignore the lessons of history and stop US support for Ukraine.
That means Ukraine is screwed (unless we think Europe and others can still support Ukraine enough to prevent Russia taking it over.
But Russia doing that will provoke massive instability in Europe. It will threaten the Baltic and other states, and further hurt their economies.
And who rather likes Europe's economies? China. And which country has been going somewhat colder against Russia over recent weeks? China.
So might China decide it is worth the cost and decide to fill the gap the US has left? Geopolitically it might be a positive thing for them to do, especially amongst some of their biggest customers.
I'm not saying this would happen; it is very unlikely. But it is possible.
It wouldn’t have the capability if it wanted to, and it wouldn’t want to because in that world it would feel its interests were best served by seeing a “Greater Russia” emerge. More likely to be a client state.
This feels like the kind of result I was expecting after having spent nearly a couple of months in the US just recently - the strength of the reaction to the SC decision back then has perhaps ebbed at little. But the picture painted by the more recent polls appears to have been off?
Holy shit. This would be massive if it ended like this:
Holy fuckknuckles, Ms Boebert's deficit is still around 8,000 votes.
If the Dems gain CO-3, it would mean that two of the three Republican nutjobs have failed to be reelected (Marjorie Taylor Greene, Madison Cawthorne and Lauren Boebert).
My dream would be for the Democrat crazies (aka the Squad) and the Republican crazies to all be defeated.
It is telling that both groups support Putin in his invasion of Ukraine.
I had a thought last night about a very unlikely scenario:
Say the Republicans win, and characteristically ignore the lessons of history and stop US support for Ukraine.
That means Ukraine is screwed (unless we think Europe and others can still support Ukraine enough to prevent Russia taking it over.
But Russia doing that will provoke massive instability in Europe. It will threaten the Baltic and other states, and further hurt their economies.
And who rather likes Europe's economies? China. And which country has been going somewhat colder against Russia over recent weeks? China.
So might China decide it is worth the cost and decide to fill the gap the US has left? Geopolitically it might be a positive thing for them to do, especially amongst some of their biggest customers.
I'm not saying this would happen; it is very unlikely. But it is possible.
I can’t see China arming the Ukranians. The equipment, training and logistics isn’t there for that, before we talk about other allies trusting the Chinese.
What’s quite probable though, is China taking advantage of Russian instability to take a good look at their own border. A Chinese push to gain Russian territory in the East, would really annoy the Russians, who can barely string together something approaching an army in the West, without having to worry about the East as well.
And Warnock in Georgia is edging closer to that 50% mark:
Latest results from 1m ago 95% OF VOTES IN
U.S. Senate Candidate Party Votes PercentPct. Raphael Warnock*incumbent Democrat 1,898,479 +49.42%49.42% Herschel Walker Republican 1,863,889 +48.51%48.51 Chase Oliver Libertarian 79,518 +2.07%2.07 Total reported 3,841,886
I think Warnock's going the end up just short - maybe 49.8/49.9%
Still: given that Walker won't have Kemp's coattails to ride on in a runoff, the Dems can feel reasonably confident.
Damn, cash tied up for months. Happy to take the win like that, even so.
And Warnock in Georgia is edging closer to that 50% mark:
Latest results from 1m ago 95% OF VOTES IN
U.S. Senate Candidate Party Votes PercentPct. Raphael Warnock*incumbent Democrat 1,898,479 +49.42%49.42% Herschel Walker Republican 1,863,889 +48.51%48.51 Chase Oliver Libertarian 79,518 +2.07%2.07 Total reported 3,841,886
I think Warnock's going the end up just short - maybe 49.8/49.9%
Still: given that Walker won't have Kemp's coattails to ride on in a runoff, the Dems can feel reasonably confident.
Damn, cash tied up for months. Happy to take the win like that, even so.
Well done but you won't have to wait that long. The run-off would be December 6th.
That was one of Mohammed Ali's 'What's your ambition?"
"I want to make money when I'm asleep"
Yes, that's the hubris I fell to.
Went to bed made money. Ive done the opposite of 2020 where i stayed up and fucked up my beautiful position.
Good work.
What about your senate bets?
I made a big Fetterman bet a while ago based on how shit a candidate OZ was.
I made a NOC bet on the Senate months ago as a trading bet but made it so long ago i forgot about it and failed to trade out, ive now run that down to a free bet on NOC levels.
That was one of Mohammed Ali's 'What's your ambition?"
"I want to make money when I'm asleep"
Yes, that's the hubris I fell to.
Went to bed made money. Ive done the opposite of 2020 where i stayed up and fucked up my beautiful position.
Good work.
What about your senate bets?
I made a big Fetterman bet a while ago based on how shit a candidate OZ was.
I made a NOC bet on the Senate months ago as a trading bet but made it so long ago i forgot about it and failed to trade out, ive now run that down to a free bet on NOC levels.
I have a saver on GOP seats 51-54
With that PA flip this may not end up 50:50 ...
It's possible the Dems could take the Senate outright which would be amazing in context.
Holy shit. This would be massive if it ended like this:
Holy fuckknuckles, Ms Boebert's deficit is still around 8,000 votes.
If the Dems gain CO-3, it would mean that two of the three Republican nutjobs have failed to be reelected (Marjorie Taylor Greene, Madison Cawthorne and Lauren Boebert).
My dream would be for the Democrat crazies (aka the Squad) and the Republican crazies to all be defeated.
It is telling that both groups support Putin in his invasion of Ukraine.
I had a thought last night about a very unlikely scenario:
Say the Republicans win, and characteristically ignore the lessons of history and stop US support for Ukraine.
That means Ukraine is screwed (unless we think Europe and others can still support Ukraine enough to prevent Russia taking it over.
But Russia doing that will provoke massive instability in Europe. It will threaten the Baltic and other states, and further hurt their economies.
And who rather likes Europe's economies? China. And which country has been going somewhat colder against Russia over recent weeks? China.
So might China decide it is worth the cost and decide to fill the gap the US has left? Geopolitically it might be a positive thing for them to do, especially amongst some of their biggest customers.
I'm not saying this would happen; it is very unlikely. But it is possible.
I can’t see China arming the Ukranians. The equipment, training and logistics isn’t there for that, before we talk about other allies trusting the Chinese.
What’s quite probable though, is China taking advantage of Russian instability to take a good look at their own border. A Chinese push to gain Russian territory in the East, would really annoy the Russians, who can barely string together something approaching an army in the West, without having to worry about the East as well.
China's weapons and ammo are similar, and often compatible with, the ex-Soviet kit stuff used by the Ukrainians. It would also send a strong message.
Whilst I agree your alternative scenario is more plausible, it is also far riskier, with China becoming an aggressor rather than aiding defence. Geopolitically, helping Ukraine is much better for China - although I cannot see it happening unless the US stops supporting Ukraine.
That was one of Mohammed Ali's 'What's your ambition?"
"I want to make money when I'm asleep"
Yes, that's the hubris I fell to.
Went to bed made money. Ive done the opposite of 2020 where i stayed up and fucked up my beautiful position.
Good work.
What about your senate bets?
I made a big Fetterman bet a while ago based on how shit a candidate OZ was.
I made a NOC bet on the Senate months ago as a trading bet but made it so long ago i forgot about it and failed to trade out, ive now run that down to a free bet on NOC levels.
I have a saver on GOP seats 51-54
Well done. I'd have been the same if I'd not flipped it at 10pm last night! Let that be a lesson on 'early results'.
After some emergency trading this morning I should break even, my house winnings overcome a small loss on the senate, but it's my Nevada bet that's killing my position.
That was one of Mohammed Ali's 'What's your ambition?"
"I want to make money when I'm asleep"
Yes, that's the hubris I fell to.
Went to bed made money. Ive done the opposite of 2020 where i stayed up and fucked up my beautiful position.
Good work.
What about your senate bets?
I made a big Fetterman bet a while ago based on how shit a candidate OZ was.
I made a NOC bet on the Senate months ago as a trading bet but made it so long ago i forgot about it and failed to trade out, ive now run that down to a free bet on NOC levels.
I have a saver on GOP seats 51-54
With that PA flip this may not end up 50:50 ...
It's possible the Dems could take the Senate outright which would be amazing in context.
11,000 votes between them, in the Georgia senate race, it’s been swinging one way then the other by the hour. 2% for the Libertarian though, so we’ll almost certainly be getting a runoff.
That was one of Mohammed Ali's 'What's your ambition?"
"I want to make money when I'm asleep"
Yes, that's the hubris I fell to.
Went to bed made money. Ive done the opposite of 2020 where i stayed up and fucked up my beautiful position.
Good work.
What about your senate bets?
I made a big Fetterman bet a while ago based on how shit a candidate OZ was.
I made a NOC bet on the Senate months ago as a trading bet but made it so long ago i forgot about it and failed to trade out, ive now run that down to a free bet on NOC levels.
I have a saver on GOP seats 51-54
With that PA flip this may not end up 50:50 ...
It's possible the Dems could take the Senate outright which would be amazing in context.
But let's see.
Only with independents caucusing with them though.
Important punters don't get tempted to back Dem majority on Betfair exchange at 50/1 on this basis. Throwing money away.
Will Trump and the cult now want the counting to stop !
Although Kelly has a good lead in Arizona it’s not a done deal yet because the remaining votes are likely to skew strongly for the GOP and Nevada looks like it will end up very close once more votes are counted .
That was one of Mohammed Ali's 'What's your ambition?"
"I want to make money when I'm asleep"
Yes, that's the hubris I fell to.
Went to bed made money. Ive done the opposite of 2020 where i stayed up and fucked up my beautiful position.
Good work.
What about your senate bets?
I made a big Fetterman bet a while ago based on how shit a candidate OZ was.
I made a NOC bet on the Senate months ago as a trading bet but made it so long ago i forgot about it and failed to trade out, ive now run that down to a free bet on NOC levels.
I have a saver on GOP seats 51-54
Well done. I'd have been the same if I'd not flipped it at 10pm last night! Let that be a lesson on 'early results'.
After some emergency trading this morning I should break even, my house winnings overcome a small loss on the senate, but it's my Nevada bet that's killing my position.
Literally just before I turned off the light I flipped my Nevada bet from GOP to (tiny) Dem stake.
I read a ralston tweet which suggested either turnout was through the floor or there was a lot of on the day drop offs that hadn't been accounted for.
Holy shit. This would be massive if it ended like this:
Holy fuckknuckles, Ms Boebert's deficit is still around 8,000 votes.
If the Dems gain CO-3, it would mean that two of the three Republican nutjobs have failed to be reelected (Marjorie Taylor Greene, Madison Cawthorne and Lauren Boebert).
My dream would be for the Democrat crazies (aka the Squad) and the Republican crazies to all be defeated.
It is telling that both groups support Putin in his invasion of Ukraine.
I had a thought last night about a very unlikely scenario:
Say the Republicans win, and characteristically ignore the lessons of history and stop US support for Ukraine.
That means Ukraine is screwed (unless we think Europe and others can still support Ukraine enough to prevent Russia taking it over.
But Russia doing that will provoke massive instability in Europe. It will threaten the Baltic and other states, and further hurt their economies.
And who rather likes Europe's economies? China. And which country has been going somewhat colder against Russia over recent weeks? China.
So might China decide it is worth the cost and decide to fill the gap the US has left? Geopolitically it might be a positive thing for them to do, especially amongst some of their biggest customers.
I'm not saying this would happen; it is very unlikely. But it is possible.
It wouldn’t have the capability if it wanted to, and it wouldn’t want to because in that world it would feel its interests were best served by seeing a “Greater Russia” emerge. More likely to be a client state.
I think that's totally wrong. China wants a weak Russia, and the 'Greater Russia' would be stronger. And Europe - which is fairly strongly in favour of maintaining Ukraine's sovereignty, is also a major customer for China. Russia is not.
Helping Ukraine in a defensive capacity also earns China brownie points for when they want to do (ahem) dodgier things.
The betting as at 0417 GMT – politicalbetting.com
Comments
@rcs1000 called this right when he predicted the Dems would outperform the recent doomsday scenarios.
And in the UK: I am certain that Labour's chances of an overall majority after 2024 are significantly underestimated by pundits. There's money to be made betting against the lemmings. But you need to know what you're doing and have nerves of steel.
Trump 4
DeSantis 4.6
Still no numbers for Nevada, which looks like being key in the Senate race. Arizona also very close, although Walker might win Georgia without a runoff.
Warnock will finish strongly.
https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1590196561618735104
The real winner I expect to be Joe Biden.
But let's not underestimate the role of God: https://twitter.com/CaseyDeSantis/status/1588539069243473924
Then I did my research and watched his campaign performances….
American democratic politics is in a terrible place to have that guy be the voters preferred option.
C’mon America. Sort yourself out.
Note to self in future betting: trust the polls.
Fetterman still narrowly ahead in PA
Even if we assume PA has gone Democrat, we still have no idea at all about the results of NV, AZ, and GA.
Nevada, there's not a single vote counted.
Arizona, we only have early votes (which are probably significantly more Democratic than on the day)
and
Georgia, which is neck and neck, with 10% left to run, and which is more likely than not to end up in a run-off. (Albeit I think Warnock is now favoured to be leading).
If I were to guess (which I am about to...) I would say:
NV - R
AZ - D (by a whisker)
GA - Run-off with the Dems leading
But it's far from impossible that the Republicans could win NV and AZ tonight, and GA to go to a run off.
Or, alternatively, for the Dems to hold all thee this evening.
This is not meant in bad taste but if Joe Biden stays alive he wins in 2024. Worth betting on now.
(Caveat: a bad time for all incumbents with the economic situation.)
While officials said it could take awhile for counties to begin uploading results after the polls close, they did not make predictions for the pace of reporting. (In 2020, it took three days for 90 percent of the vote to be reported.) The state conducts a predominantly mail-ballot election, and ballots postmarked by Election Day have four days to arrive.
Which I think means that (unless Laxalt or Cortez Mastro really hits it out the park), that we won't know Nevada for a while.
You called it brilliantly.
Really they ought to have done much better than this. I think they need to exorcise the spirit of Donald Trump and reboot.
p.s. and the abortion ruling has cost them dearly
But honestly, the slowness with which Americans count ballots is just bonkers.
test results from 2m ago
51% OF VOTES IN
U.S. Senate
Candidate Party Votes PercentPct.
Mark Kelly*incumbent
Democrat 785,323 +57.5%57.5%
Blake Masters
Republican 549,580 +40.2%40.2
Marc Victor
Libertarian 31,153 +2.3%2.3
Total reported
1,366,056
Latest results from 2m ago
92% OF VOTES IN
U.S. Senate
Candidate Party Votes PercentPct.
Raphael Warnock*incumbent
Democrat 1,884,740 +49.36%49.36%
Herschel Walker
Republican 1,855,077 +48.58%48.58
Chase Oliver
Libertarian 78,824 +2.06%2.06
It’s bad enough that USPS can’t be trusted to deliver ballot papers for several days, but always seems weird that papers can’t be counted overnight, at least for the
The defenders of the system will argue that everyone elected today, doesn’t hold their new office until January, so there doesn’t need to be any urgency - but looking from the outside, the delays add fuel to the fire of those questioning the election results, which has already been seen today from both major parties.
Dem 54-43, 44% counted
With only about 60 seats left to declare they are on net +5. Nowhere near what they were expecting.
And although it's very tight it doesn't look to me as if they've taken the Senate.
They have under-performed against expectation.
Latest results from 1m ago
41% OF VOTES IN
U.S. Senate
Candidate Party Votes PercentPct.
Catherine Cortez Masto*incumbent
Democrat 251,227 +54.3%54.3%
Adam Laxalt
Republican 198,764 +43.0%43.0
None of these candidates
5,286 +1.1%1.1
Total reported
462,774
Latest results from 1m ago
95% OF VOTES IN
U.S. Senate
Candidate Party Votes PercentPct.
Raphael Warnock*incumbent
Democrat 1,898,479 +49.42%49.42%
Herschel Walker
Republican 1,863,889 +48.51%48.51
Chase Oliver
Libertarian 79,518 +2.07%2.07
Total reported
3,841,886
"Unfortunately we've had some hiccups with about 20% of these tabulators," Chairman to the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors Bill Gates told Fox News.
Gates said an issue has arisen when people attempt to run their ballots through the tabulator and are unable to successfully do so as their ballots are being spit back out at them.
Still: given that Walker won't have Kemp's coattails to ride on in a runoff, the Dems can feel reasonably confident.
Huge result for the Democrats. This is a Pickup (Gain).
Might we see the Dems hold the Senate rather than a split? That would be gobsmacking after expectations.
If the Dems gain CO-3, it would mean that two of the three Republican nutjobs have failed to be reelected (Marjorie Taylor Greene, Madison Cawthorne and Lauren Boebert).
That old chestnut.
"I want to make money when I'm asleep"
Shame about Vance winning. Another one who has embraced inauthenticity like Trump.
It is telling that both groups support Putin in his invasion of Ukraine.
As it is, hopefuls are going to watch to see how much Biden declines.
We daren't ask if they're related.
Is the news much less depressing than I was expecting?
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/11/herschel-walker-just-cant-stop-midterms-2022-georgia.html
If she was a man everyone would be talking about her.
It’s perfectly possible to do counts quickly if states are prepared to invest the money; most aren’t.
Say the Republicans win, and characteristically ignore the lessons of history and stop US support for Ukraine.
That means Ukraine is screwed (unless we think Europe and others can still support Ukraine enough to prevent Russia taking it over.
But Russia doing that will provoke massive instability in Europe. It will threaten the Baltic and other states, and further hurt their economies.
And who rather likes Europe's economies? China. And which country has been going somewhat colder against Russia over recent weeks? China.
So might China decide it is worth the cost and decide to fill the gap the US has left? Geopolitically it might be a positive thing for them to do, especially amongst some of their biggest customers.
I'm not saying this would happen; it is very unlikely. But it is possible.
Currently 2.2/2.3, and still value, IMO.
What about your senate bets?
So the odds are far from ridiculous.
Tonight looks good for Biden. He channeled the threats to democracy (probably more than abortion rights) and it seems to have worked. He's probably lost the House but may keep the Senate.
That probably encourages him to run in 2024. That might not be the best for the Democrats.
More importantly, I think these results sink Trump in the GOP. His candidates looked to have failed massively, It's clear the stink around him deters voters.
Much of the Democrat strategy has been built around the assumption that Trump will run in 2024. But what happens if he doesn't? Ok, you face DeSantis. Is he as scary to many people? No. Florida is seen as somewhat of a success story. Plus he is clearly not off the charts as Trump.
So what may happen, in 2024, is that you have a Biden who feels emboldened to run against DeSantis. I think the latter wins that, and wins it quite handily.
What’s quite probable though, is China taking advantage of Russian instability to take a good look at their own border. A Chinese push to gain Russian territory in the East, would really annoy the Russians, who can barely string together something approaching an army in the West, without having to worry about the East as well.
Happy to take the win like that, even so.
I made a NOC bet on the Senate months ago as a trading bet but made it so long ago i forgot about it and failed to trade out, ive now run that down to a free bet on NOC levels.
I have a saver on GOP seats 51-54
It's possible the Dems could take the Senate outright which would be amazing in context.
But let's see.
A lot to happen in the next year, and we don’t even have the midterm results yet.
DeSantis could be a strong national candidate; he could equally be a bust. Too early to say, IMO.
Whilst I agree your alternative scenario is more plausible, it is also far riskier, with China becoming an aggressor rather than aiding defence. Geopolitically, helping Ukraine is much better for China - although I cannot see it happening unless the US stops supporting Ukraine.
After some emergency trading this morning I should break even, my house winnings overcome a small loss on the senate, but it's my Nevada bet that's killing my position.
Important punters don't get tempted to back Dem majority on Betfair exchange at 50/1 on this basis. Throwing money away.
Although Kelly has a good lead in Arizona it’s not a done deal yet because the remaining votes are likely to skew strongly for the GOP and Nevada looks like it will end up very close once more votes are counted .
I read a ralston tweet which suggested either turnout was through the floor or there was a lot of on the day drop offs that hadn't been accounted for.
Helping Ukraine in a defensive capacity also earns China brownie points for when they want to do (ahem) dodgier things.