If punters are right tomorrow’s MidTerms will good for GOP – politicalbetting.com
If punters are right tomorrow’s MidTerms will good for GOP – politicalbetting.com
The charts show the betting trend for tomorrow’s big MidTerm elections when it is looking as though the Republicans with take both the House and the Senate. The party will also do well in hundreds of state elections.
Comments
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It's only a platform if Trump isn't in jail....0
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The fact that Tom Cotton is not running for the 2024 GOP nomination suggests that he thinks (1) it's almost certain Trump will run and (2) the results will be very good for the GOP, which will bolster Trump's claims to be the nominee. If the GOP takes GA, AZ and NH, and keeps PA, plus pulls something off like the NY Governorship, Trump will be claiming it's down to him given the candidates there received his endorsements.1
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Mid-terms are not necessarily an omen. Both Clinton and Obama suffered mid-term reverses before winning re-election two years later.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_midterm_election#Historical_record_of_midterm1 -
Well, it's highly likely to be a very good night for the GOP and it's highly likely that Trump will run again.TheKitchenCabinet said:The fact that Tom Cotton is not running for the 2024 GOP nomination suggests that he thinks (1) it's almost certain Trump will run and (2) the results will be very good for the GOP, which will bolster Trump's claims to be the nominee. If the GOP takes GA, AZ and NH, and keeps PA, plus pulls something off like the NY Governorship, Trump will be claiming it's down to him given the candidates there received his endorsements.
But I'm not sure that Tom Cotton has any special information here.1 -
Bloody dog’s bladder must be going the same way as mine, ringing the bell to go out in the middle of the night.
When I was in the US just a few weeks back, the Dems seemed to be heading towards good results, on the back of record levels of female voter registrations. If the polls are right, it’s gone bad for them quite quickly.0 -
I agree, the talk was all about the Roe v Wade abortion ruling mobilising female voters... any idea what has happened to the Dems?IanB2 said:Bloody dog’s bladder must be going the same way as mine, ringing the bell to go out in the middle of the night.
When I was in the US just a few weeks back, the Dems seemed to be heading towards good results, on the back of record levels of female voter registrations. If the polls are right, it’s gone bad for them quite quickly.0 -
If American polls weight by past vote, they will not count newly-registered lady Democrats. Our own opinion polls have had this problem.swing_voter said:
I agree, the talk was all about the Roe v Wade abortion ruling mobilising female voters... any idea what has happened to the Dems?IanB2 said:Bloody dog’s bladder must be going the same way as mine, ringing the bell to go out in the middle of the night.
When I was in the US just a few weeks back, the Dems seemed to be heading towards good results, on the back of record levels of female voter registrations. If the polls are right, it’s gone bad for them quite quickly.0 -
Remarkable that Sunak is now trying to portray himself as the leader of the COP27 summit.
It seems his diplomatic judgment is no better than his domestic political judgment.2 -
No special information but enough to tell him that it's better to wait on that run. Given a poor GOP result would be likely to damage Trump's reputation, that suggests something.rcs1000 said:
Well, it's highly likely to be a very good night for the GOP and it's highly likely that Trump will run again.TheKitchenCabinet said:The fact that Tom Cotton is not running for the 2024 GOP nomination suggests that he thinks (1) it's almost certain Trump will run and (2) the results will be very good for the GOP, which will bolster Trump's claims to be the nominee. If the GOP takes GA, AZ and NH, and keeps PA, plus pulls something off like the NY Governorship, Trump will be claiming it's down to him given the candidates there received his endorsements.
But I'm not sure that Tom Cotton has any special information here.
However, one piece of good news for Democrats - Ralston predicts Cortez Masto will hold on in NV (although he has hedged his bets):
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/crystal-ball-says-cortez-masto-hangs-on-sisolak-doesnt-and-dems-retain-two-of-three-house-seats0 -
I would be very surprised if Cortez Mastro holds on: I think she is by far the most vulnerable of the Dems, and had her losing by 3-4 points. She's also hampered by the fact that the Republicans have a good Gubernatorial candidate, and Sislak is unpopular.TheKitchenCabinet said:
No special information but enough to tell him that it's better to wait on that run. Given a poor GOP result would be likely to damage Trump's reputation, that suggests something.rcs1000 said:
Well, it's highly likely to be a very good night for the GOP and it's highly likely that Trump will run again.TheKitchenCabinet said:The fact that Tom Cotton is not running for the 2024 GOP nomination suggests that he thinks (1) it's almost certain Trump will run and (2) the results will be very good for the GOP, which will bolster Trump's claims to be the nominee. If the GOP takes GA, AZ and NH, and keeps PA, plus pulls something off like the NY Governorship, Trump will be claiming it's down to him given the candidates there received his endorsements.
But I'm not sure that Tom Cotton has any special information here.
However, one piece of good news for Democrats - Ralston predicts Cortez Masto will hold on in NV (although he has hedged his bets):
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/crystal-ball-says-cortez-masto-hangs-on-sisolak-doesnt-and-dems-retain-two-of-three-house-seats
FWIW, I think we don't pay enough attention to the Governor races. I think Americans are more likely to trek to the polls to vote for Governor than for Senator.
A decent Governor (or candidate) makes a massive difference in a Senate race.
And that boosts Laxalt and Walker, while it hampers Oz. AZ is a harder call: Hobbs is a dreadful candidate for the Dems, but Lake is an incredibly divisive one for the Republicans.
If we assume the polls are broadly right (which they probably aren't), and that Governorship races matter, that suggests:
R gain NV
D gain PA
R leads in GA (albeit it may well go to run-off)
and...
R probably win AZ.
And, of course, if the Republicans have already gained the Senate, then I would expect Walker to win in a run-off.1 -
Quite so. Biden's ratings are pretty much what one should expect of a normal President, two years into his first time.DecrepiterJohnL said:Mid-terms are not necessarily an omen. Both Clinton and Obama suffered mid-term reverses before winning re-election two years later.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_midterm_election#Historical_record_of_midterm
Republican gains in the House, Governorships, and Senate are what one should expect, given that it's mid-term, and given the current economic situation.2 -
I don't think that the Democrats are heading for an unusually bad night. The polls have simply reverted to where you would expect them to be.IanB2 said:Bloody dog’s bladder must be going the same way as mine, ringing the bell to go out in the middle of the night.
When I was in the US just a few weeks back, the Dems seemed to be heading towards good results, on the back of record levels of female voter registrations. If the polls are right, it’s gone bad for them quite quickly.1 -
Dobbs does not outweigh the current economic situation.swing_voter said:
I agree, the talk was all about the Roe v Wade abortion ruling mobilising female voters... any idea what has happened to the Dems?IanB2 said:Bloody dog’s bladder must be going the same way as mine, ringing the bell to go out in the middle of the night.
When I was in the US just a few weeks back, the Dems seemed to be heading towards good results, on the back of record levels of female voter registrations. If the polls are right, it’s gone bad for them quite quickly.0 -
Quite:Sean_F said:
I don't think that the Democrats are heading for an unusually bad night. The polls have simply reverted to where you would expect them to be.IanB2 said:Bloody dog’s bladder must be going the same way as mine, ringing the bell to go out in the middle of the night.
When I was in the US just a few weeks back, the Dems seemed to be heading towards good results, on the back of record levels of female voter registrations. If the polls are right, it’s gone bad for them quite quickly.
A loss of 1-2 Senate seats and a small beating in the House would be in-line (or slightly better than) what you would expect from the incumbent party at this point in the cycle.
Clinton lost 8 Senate seats and 54 seats in the House.
Obama dropped 6 Senate seats and 63 seats in the House.
I would expect Biden to comfortably outperform that.3 -
That's pretty much my thinking, too.rcs1000 said:
I would be very surprised if Cortez Mastro holds on: I think she is by far the most vulnerable of the Dems, and had her losing by 3-4 points. She's also hampered by the fact that the Republicans have a good Gubernatorial candidate, and Sislak is unpopular.TheKitchenCabinet said:
No special information but enough to tell him that it's better to wait on that run. Given a poor GOP result would be likely to damage Trump's reputation, that suggests something.rcs1000 said:
Well, it's highly likely to be a very good night for the GOP and it's highly likely that Trump will run again.TheKitchenCabinet said:The fact that Tom Cotton is not running for the 2024 GOP nomination suggests that he thinks (1) it's almost certain Trump will run and (2) the results will be very good for the GOP, which will bolster Trump's claims to be the nominee. If the GOP takes GA, AZ and NH, and keeps PA, plus pulls something off like the NY Governorship, Trump will be claiming it's down to him given the candidates there received his endorsements.
But I'm not sure that Tom Cotton has any special information here.
However, one piece of good news for Democrats - Ralston predicts Cortez Masto will hold on in NV (although he has hedged his bets):
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/crystal-ball-says-cortez-masto-hangs-on-sisolak-doesnt-and-dems-retain-two-of-three-house-seats
FWIW, I think we don't pay enough attention to the Governor races. I think Americans are more likely to trek to the polls to vote for Governor than for Senator.
A decent Governor (or candidate) makes a massive difference in a Senate race.
And that boosts Laxalt and Walker, while it hampers Oz. AZ is a harder call: Hobbs is a dreadful candidate for the Dems, but Lake is an incredibly divisive one for the Republicans.
If we assume the polls are broadly right (which they probably aren't), and that Governorship races matter, that suggests:
R gain NV
D gain PA
R leads in GA (albeit it may well go to run-off)
and...
R probably win AZ.
And, of course, if the Republicans have already gained the Senate, then I would expect Walker to win in a run-off.
There are exceptions (eg New Hampshire, Oregon) but in general now, people vote pretty much the way for Governors and Senators in the same cycle.0 -
Well, well. Jon Ralston* now estimates that CCM will (probably) pull it out in NV. That's s big switch, he's been very strong on the Reps winning there for months.
*For those who don't know, he's a veteran politics journalist in NV, and very highly regarded. Very experienced at crunching the numbers.
https://twitter.com/TheNVIndy/status/1589457152715870208?t=sxgStljDGMf0IAnzuBjghw&s=19
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The Fed continued putting up interest rates aggressively.swing_voter said:
I agree, the talk was all about the Roe v Wade abortion ruling mobilising female voters... any idea what has happened to the Dems?IanB2 said:Bloody dog’s bladder must be going the same way as mine, ringing the bell to go out in the middle of the night.
When I was in the US just a few weeks back, the Dems seemed to be heading towards good results, on the back of record levels of female voter registrations. If the polls are right, it’s gone bad for them quite quickly.
It's defensible as sound monetary policy, even though it looks as though US inflation has peaked, but the timing of the recent rates rises has been dismal for the Democrats midterm prospects.
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I'm clinging to the hope that the polls are, as you've often suggested, out by several %.rcs1000 said:
Quite:Sean_F said:
I don't think that the Democrats are heading for an unusually bad night. The polls have simply reverted to where you would expect them to be.IanB2 said:Bloody dog’s bladder must be going the same way as mine, ringing the bell to go out in the middle of the night.
When I was in the US just a few weeks back, the Dems seemed to be heading towards good results, on the back of record levels of female voter registrations. If the polls are right, it’s gone bad for them quite quickly.
A loss of 1-2 Senate seats and a small beating in the House would be in-line (or slightly better than) what you would expect from the incumbent party at this point in the cycle.
Clinton lost 8 Senate seats and 54 seats in the House.
Obama dropped 6 Senate seats and 63 seats in the House.
I would expect Biden to comfortably outperform that.
Not put any money on it yet, though.
I long since closed out my short of Republican control of the Senate (profitably), and I'm half tempted to have another dabble.
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As I posted yesterday there has been a big surge in Postal votes from Registered Dems. I repeteated over the next 2 days it gets the so called "Clark County Firewall" up to 2018 levels which was a 5 point win for the Dems.jamesdoyle said:Well, well. Jon Ralston* now estimates that CCM will (probably) pull it out in NV. That's s big switch, he's been very strong on the Reps winning there for months.
*For those who don't know, he's a veteran politics journalist in NV, and very highly regarded. Very experienced at crunching the numbers.
https://twitter.com/TheNVIndy/status/1589457152715870208?t=sxgStljDGMf0IAnzuBjghw&s=19
I'm waaaaay less bullish than Ralston is. I think he makes an uncomfortably optimistic assumption about how Washoe will vote. And as a result I still think it is a GOP pickup unless I see better numbers for the Dems.
ON THE OTHER HAND I have went through as many of the recent polls showing Laxalt ahead as I could and with the exception of the Emerson poll they all have some just pure bullshit in the subsamples. The Emerson poll seems really solid though and is a comfortable Laxalt win. So once again I am going GOP pickup unless there is (non garbo) polling out today that says otherwise.
Once again, my recommendation is do not bet.1 -
The economic situation for the USA is pretty good I think with their home grown energy?Sean_F said:
Dobbs does not outweigh the current economic situation.swing_voter said:
I agree, the talk was all about the Roe v Wade abortion ruling mobilising female voters... any idea what has happened to the Dems?IanB2 said:Bloody dog’s bladder must be going the same way as mine, ringing the bell to go out in the middle of the night.
When I was in the US just a few weeks back, the Dems seemed to be heading towards good results, on the back of record levels of female voter registrations. If the polls are right, it’s gone bad for them quite quickly.
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I always get the impression Ralston would prefer a Democrat win but he's honest enough to call it when he thinks the GOP will make itrcs1000 said:
I would be very surprised if Cortez Mastro holds on: I think she is by far the most vulnerable of the Dems, and had her losing by 3-4 points. She's also hampered by the fact that the Republicans have a good Gubernatorial candidate, and Sislak is unpopular.TheKitchenCabinet said:
No special information but enough to tell him that it's better to wait on that run. Given a poor GOP result would be likely to damage Trump's reputation, that suggests something.rcs1000 said:
Well, it's highly likely to be a very good night for the GOP and it's highly likely that Trump will run again.TheKitchenCabinet said:The fact that Tom Cotton is not running for the 2024 GOP nomination suggests that he thinks (1) it's almost certain Trump will run and (2) the results will be very good for the GOP, which will bolster Trump's claims to be the nominee. If the GOP takes GA, AZ and NH, and keeps PA, plus pulls something off like the NY Governorship, Trump will be claiming it's down to him given the candidates there received his endorsements.
But I'm not sure that Tom Cotton has any special information here.
However, one piece of good news for Democrats - Ralston predicts Cortez Masto will hold on in NV (although he has hedged his bets):
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/crystal-ball-says-cortez-masto-hangs-on-sisolak-doesnt-and-dems-retain-two-of-three-house-seats
FWIW, I think we don't pay enough attention to the Governor races. I think Americans are more likely to trek to the polls to vote for Governor than for Senator.
A decent Governor (or candidate) makes a massive difference in a Senate race.
And that boosts Laxalt and Walker, while it hampers Oz. AZ is a harder call: Hobbs is a dreadful candidate for the Dems, but Lake is an incredibly divisive one for the Republicans.
If we assume the polls are broadly right (which they probably aren't), and that Governorship races matter, that suggests:
R gain NV
D gain PA
R leads in GA (albeit it may well go to run-off)
and...
R probably win AZ.
And, of course, if the Republicans have already gained the Senate, then I would expect Walker to win in a run-off.0 -
Inflation and petrol prices is a pocketbook issue that hits people obviously and directly even if the macro is ok.Pulpstar said:
The economic situation for the USA is pretty good I think with their home grown energy?Sean_F said:
Dobbs does not outweigh the current economic situation.swing_voter said:
I agree, the talk was all about the Roe v Wade abortion ruling mobilising female voters... any idea what has happened to the Dems?IanB2 said:Bloody dog’s bladder must be going the same way as mine, ringing the bell to go out in the middle of the night.
When I was in the US just a few weeks back, the Dems seemed to be heading towards good results, on the back of record levels of female voter registrations. If the polls are right, it’s gone bad for them quite quickly.
Compared to the rest of the world they are doing good but compared to last year things are rough.
EDIT: I mean, Biden's job numbers are absolutely incredible but that doesn't help people who already have a job pay for gas that is 40% higher than when Biden took over.0 -
I'm here for the politics, not the betting! But I'd agree NV is not a good betting opportunity.Alistair said:
As I posted yesterday there has been a big surge in Postal votes from Registered Dems. I repeteated over the next 2 days it gets the so called "Clark County Firewall" up to 2018 levels which was a 5 point win for the Dems.jamesdoyle said:Well, well. Jon Ralston* now estimates that CCM will (probably) pull it out in NV. That's s big switch, he's been very strong on the Reps winning there for months.
*For those who don't know, he's a veteran politics journalist in NV, and very highly regarded. Very experienced at crunching the numbers.
https://twitter.com/TheNVIndy/status/1589457152715870208?t=sxgStljDGMf0IAnzuBjghw&s=19
I'm waaaaay less bullish than Ralston is. I think he makes an uncomfortably optimistic assumption about how Washoe will vote. And as a result I still think it is a GOP pickup unless I see better numbers for the Dems.
ON THE OTHER HAND I have went through as many of the recent polls showing Laxalt ahead as I could and with the exception of the Emerson poll they all have some just pure bullshit in the subsamples. The Emerson poll seems really solid though and is a comfortable Laxalt win. So once again I am going GOP pickup unless there is (non garbo) polling out today that says otherwise.
Once again, my recommendation is do not bet.
Two comments on yours: Emerson have had a real Rep lean this time out, and have largely been quite a way from the polling pack (not necessarily a bad thing). There has been some talk, from Emerson as well, that they may have overcompensated for last time.
Ralston has been consistently saying that Laxalt would win in NV - IIRC, he said from the moment Laxalt was nominated that it would be an R gain. He's changed his mind based on what's happened with the early voting, which he has an excellent record on. Still so close a tiny shift could swing it either way though, but hopeful.0 -
Yeah and with their mortgage structure the average person is shielded from Jay Powell's bullets.Alistair said:
Inflation and petrol prices is a pocketbook issue that hits people obviously and directly even if the macro is ok.Pulpstar said:
The economic situation for the USA is pretty good I think with their home grown energy?Sean_F said:
Dobbs does not outweigh the current economic situation.swing_voter said:
I agree, the talk was all about the Roe v Wade abortion ruling mobilising female voters... any idea what has happened to the Dems?IanB2 said:Bloody dog’s bladder must be going the same way as mine, ringing the bell to go out in the middle of the night.
When I was in the US just a few weeks back, the Dems seemed to be heading towards good results, on the back of record levels of female voter registrations. If the polls are right, it’s gone bad for them quite quickly.
Compared to the rest of the world they are doing good but compared to last year things are rough.
EDIT: I mean, Biden's job numbers are absolutely incredible but that doesn't help people who already have a job pay for gas that is 40% higher than when Biden took over.0 -
This is true and yet this is the most favourable of the three Senate cycles for the Dems. If they lose ground this time they will likely have lost control of the Senate for six years.rcs1000 said:
Quite:Sean_F said:
I don't think that the Democrats are heading for an unusually bad night. The polls have simply reverted to where you would expect them to be.IanB2 said:Bloody dog’s bladder must be going the same way as mine, ringing the bell to go out in the middle of the night.
When I was in the US just a few weeks back, the Dems seemed to be heading towards good results, on the back of record levels of female voter registrations. If the polls are right, it’s gone bad for them quite quickly.
A loss of 1-2 Senate seats and a small beating in the House would be in-line (or slightly better than) what you would expect from the incumbent party at this point in the cycle.
Clinton lost 8 Senate seats and 54 seats in the House.
Obama dropped 6 Senate seats and 63 seats in the House.
I would expect Biden to comfortably outperform that.
Also, US politics is in an unusual state. If the Dems cannot achieve unusually robust results after Jan 6th and Dobbs, against an unrepentant GOP, then they are in big trouble. They will have essentially lost the political argument that respect for the democratic process matters, and shown themselves unable to mobilize voters.2 -
This is an interesting metric regarding whether or not he gets the nomination.
Though his toxic legacy will live on, irrespective.
Record number of Republicans support party over Trump: NBC poll
https://thehill.com/homenews/3722608-record-number-of-republicans-support-party-over-trump-nbc-poll/
And this...
GOP megadonor: I’m ready to back DeSantis for president in ’24
Billionaire CEO Ken Griffin is a bit tired of Donald Trump. "For a litany of reasons, I think it’s time to move on to the next generation,” he said in an interview.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/06/gop-megadonor-desantis-24-ken-griffin-000652740 -
Ralston is the man and I would hope his reputation on here is now rock solid after 2 election cycles of GOP booster posters trying to trash him.jamesdoyle said:
I'm here for the politics, not the betting! But I'd agree NV is not a good betting opportunity.Alistair said:
As I posted yesterday there has been a big surge in Postal votes from Registered Dems. I repeteated over the next 2 days it gets the so called "Clark County Firewall" up to 2018 levels which was a 5 point win for the Dems.jamesdoyle said:Well, well. Jon Ralston* now estimates that CCM will (probably) pull it out in NV. That's s big switch, he's been very strong on the Reps winning there for months.
*For those who don't know, he's a veteran politics journalist in NV, and very highly regarded. Very experienced at crunching the numbers.
https://twitter.com/TheNVIndy/status/1589457152715870208?t=sxgStljDGMf0IAnzuBjghw&s=19
I'm waaaaay less bullish than Ralston is. I think he makes an uncomfortably optimistic assumption about how Washoe will vote. And as a result I still think it is a GOP pickup unless I see better numbers for the Dems.
ON THE OTHER HAND I have went through as many of the recent polls showing Laxalt ahead as I could and with the exception of the Emerson poll they all have some just pure bullshit in the subsamples. The Emerson poll seems really solid though and is a comfortable Laxalt win. So once again I am going GOP pickup unless there is (non garbo) polling out today that says otherwise.
Once again, my recommendation is do not bet.
Two comments on yours: Emerson have had a real Rep lean this time out, and have largely been quite a way from the polling pack (not necessarily a bad thing). There has been some talk, from Emerson as well, that they may have overcompensated for last time.
Ralston has been consistently saying that Laxalt would win in NV - IIRC, he said from the moment Laxalt was nominated that it would be an R gain. He's changed his mind based on what's happened with the early voting, which he has an excellent record on. Still so close a tiny shift could swing it either way though, but hopeful.
That said his article is still heavily caveated and on my part the Dem voter registration numbers look weak.1 -
I always got the impression that Ralston was a massive partisan Dem. But they like being right more than being a cheerleader.Pulpstar said:
I always get the impression Ralston would prefer a Democrat win but he's honest enough to call it when he thinks the GOP will make itrcs1000 said:
I would be very surprised if Cortez Mastro holds on: I think she is by far the most vulnerable of the Dems, and had her losing by 3-4 points. She's also hampered by the fact that the Republicans have a good Gubernatorial candidate, and Sislak is unpopular.TheKitchenCabinet said:
No special information but enough to tell him that it's better to wait on that run. Given a poor GOP result would be likely to damage Trump's reputation, that suggests something.rcs1000 said:
Well, it's highly likely to be a very good night for the GOP and it's highly likely that Trump will run again.TheKitchenCabinet said:The fact that Tom Cotton is not running for the 2024 GOP nomination suggests that he thinks (1) it's almost certain Trump will run and (2) the results will be very good for the GOP, which will bolster Trump's claims to be the nominee. If the GOP takes GA, AZ and NH, and keeps PA, plus pulls something off like the NY Governorship, Trump will be claiming it's down to him given the candidates there received his endorsements.
But I'm not sure that Tom Cotton has any special information here.
However, one piece of good news for Democrats - Ralston predicts Cortez Masto will hold on in NV (although he has hedged his bets):
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/crystal-ball-says-cortez-masto-hangs-on-sisolak-doesnt-and-dems-retain-two-of-three-house-seats
FWIW, I think we don't pay enough attention to the Governor races. I think Americans are more likely to trek to the polls to vote for Governor than for Senator.
A decent Governor (or candidate) makes a massive difference in a Senate race.
And that boosts Laxalt and Walker, while it hampers Oz. AZ is a harder call: Hobbs is a dreadful candidate for the Dems, but Lake is an incredibly divisive one for the Republicans.
If we assume the polls are broadly right (which they probably aren't), and that Governorship races matter, that suggests:
R gain NV
D gain PA
R leads in GA (albeit it may well go to run-off)
and...
R probably win AZ.
And, of course, if the Republicans have already gained the Senate, then I would expect Walker to win in a run-off.0 -
I had the joy of listening to Chris Mason and Nick Robinson this morning interviewing each other about Sunak and Cop27, after a couple of minutes on Cop27 and policies they proceeded to focus on Boris going to Cop.
The childish glee as they talked about how Sunak only went when Boris said he was going and “is Boris a backseat driver.” With Morris saying he will be finding Boris to ask him about it etc.
It made me so angry as it summed up a part of the problem with Politics in this country where it was a perfect example of journalists more interested in the games and trying to get “angles” and bitchy showbiz as politics news.
Maybe just dig into the sodding policies and ideas and stop the excited gossip games.
13 -
Speed things move at there isn't time for that.MarqueeMark said:It's only a platform if Trump isn't in jail....
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But wasn’t he a star* the last time round?rcs1000 said:
Well, it's highly likely to be a very good night for the GOP and it's highly likely that Trump will run again.TheKitchenCabinet said:The fact that Tom Cotton is not running for the 2024 GOP nomination suggests that he thinks (1) it's almost certain Trump will run and (2) the results will be very good for the GOP, which will bolster Trump's claims to be the nominee. If the GOP takes GA, AZ and NH, and keeps PA, plus pulls something off like the NY Governorship, Trump will be claiming it's down to him given the candidates there received his endorsements.
But I'm not sure that Tom Cotton has any special information here.
* well an asterisk anyway, but that’s close enough for government work
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I think the problem in these elections is ticket splitting . This is much less likely away from the ne states and having governorships up for election will often help the downballot races .
In terms of the polling it’s been all over the place because of GOP biased outfits dropping lots of polls and trying to show momentum for their side .
The non- partisan polling shows a much closer picture . Another thing to bear in mind there are quite a few house seats which are not being contested by the Dems . This means the generic ballot polling could be over estimating GOP gains .
Of the 17 uncontested seats only 3 are Dem incumbents .
Then there’s also seats where it’s a third party candidate only in opposition .
That breaks 10 to 3 in the GOPs favour .
The Dems could keep the house with as little as a 1.5% lead nationally .
Even allowing for all these caveats the GOP should still take the house but a lot of the races could be close .0 -
Chinas not there, Biden has scaled back his entourage, India’s in no mood to compromise. It’s not actually going to decide anything meaningfulChris said:Remarkable that Sunak is now trying to portray himself as the leader of the COP27 summit.
It seems his diplomatic judgment is no better than his domestic political judgment.1 -
...and Ralston does have a fantastic record of being right about Nevada elections.Alistair said:
I always got the impression that Ralston was a massive partisan Dem. But they like being right more than being a cheerleader.Pulpstar said:
I always get the impression Ralston would prefer a Democrat win but he's honest enough to call it when he thinks the GOP will make itrcs1000 said:
I would be very surprised if Cortez Mastro holds on: I think she is by far the most vulnerable of the Dems, and had her losing by 3-4 points. She's also hampered by the fact that the Republicans have a good Gubernatorial candidate, and Sislak is unpopular.TheKitchenCabinet said:
No special information but enough to tell him that it's better to wait on that run. Given a poor GOP result would be likely to damage Trump's reputation, that suggests something.rcs1000 said:
Well, it's highly likely to be a very good night for the GOP and it's highly likely that Trump will run again.TheKitchenCabinet said:The fact that Tom Cotton is not running for the 2024 GOP nomination suggests that he thinks (1) it's almost certain Trump will run and (2) the results will be very good for the GOP, which will bolster Trump's claims to be the nominee. If the GOP takes GA, AZ and NH, and keeps PA, plus pulls something off like the NY Governorship, Trump will be claiming it's down to him given the candidates there received his endorsements.
But I'm not sure that Tom Cotton has any special information here.
However, one piece of good news for Democrats - Ralston predicts Cortez Masto will hold on in NV (although he has hedged his bets):
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/crystal-ball-says-cortez-masto-hangs-on-sisolak-doesnt-and-dems-retain-two-of-three-house-seats
FWIW, I think we don't pay enough attention to the Governor races. I think Americans are more likely to trek to the polls to vote for Governor than for Senator.
A decent Governor (or candidate) makes a massive difference in a Senate race.
And that boosts Laxalt and Walker, while it hampers Oz. AZ is a harder call: Hobbs is a dreadful candidate for the Dems, but Lake is an incredibly divisive one for the Republicans.
If we assume the polls are broadly right (which they probably aren't), and that Governorship races matter, that suggests:
R gain NV
D gain PA
R leads in GA (albeit it may well go to run-off)
and...
R probably win AZ.
And, of course, if the Republicans have already gained the Senate, then I would expect Walker to win in a run-off.0 -
On the other hand massive mid term swings and cohabitation for 2 years seem to be the norm in American politics, so if the Republicans only manage a modest one might that point to another comfortable Biden win in 2024?LostPassword said:
This is true and yet this is the most favourable of the three Senate cycles for the Dems. If they lose ground this time they will likely have lost control of the Senate for six years.rcs1000 said:
Quite:Sean_F said:
I don't think that the Democrats are heading for an unusually bad night. The polls have simply reverted to where you would expect them to be.IanB2 said:Bloody dog’s bladder must be going the same way as mine, ringing the bell to go out in the middle of the night.
When I was in the US just a few weeks back, the Dems seemed to be heading towards good results, on the back of record levels of female voter registrations. If the polls are right, it’s gone bad for them quite quickly.
A loss of 1-2 Senate seats and a small beating in the House would be in-line (or slightly better than) what you would expect from the incumbent party at this point in the cycle.
Clinton lost 8 Senate seats and 54 seats in the House.
Obama dropped 6 Senate seats and 63 seats in the House.
I would expect Biden to comfortably outperform that.
Also, US politics is in an unusual state. If the Dems cannot achieve unusually robust results after Jan 6th and Dobbs, against an unrepentant GOP, then they are in big trouble. They will have essentially lost the political argument that respect for the democratic process matters, and shown themselves unable to mobilize voters.
0 -
I’m not so sure - I think “toxic legacies” can purge themselves pretty quickly once the protagonist is no longer a playerNigelb said:This is an interesting metric regarding whether or not he gets the nomination.
Though his toxic legacy will live on, irrespective.
Record number of Republicans support party over Trump: NBC poll
https://thehill.com/homenews/3722608-record-number-of-republicans-support-party-over-trump-nbc-poll/
And this...
GOP megadonor: I’m ready to back DeSantis for president in ’24
Billionaire CEO Ken Griffin is a bit tired of Donald Trump. "For a litany of reasons, I think it’s time to move on to the next generation,” he said in an interview.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/06/gop-megadonor-desantis-24-ken-griffin-00065274
0 -
Tony Blair says hiStillWaters said:I’m not so sure - I think “toxic legacies” can purge themselves pretty quickly once the protagonist is no longer a player
0 -
The headline news all day yesterday on the BBC was man in a mood sends grumpy texts.boulay said:I had the joy of listening to Chris Mason and Nick Robinson this morning interviewing each other about Sunak and Cop27, after a couple of minutes on Cop27 and policies they proceeded to focus on Boris going to Cop.
The childish glee as they talked about how Sunak only went when Boris said he was going and “is Boris a backseat driver.” With Morris saying he will be finding Boris to ask him about it etc.
It made me so angry as it summed up a part of the problem with Politics in this country where it was a perfect example of journalists more interested in the games and trying to get “angles” and bitchy showbiz as politics news.
Maybe just dig into the sodding policies and ideas and stop the excited gossip games.3 -
Yesterday Oliver Dowden explained away Gavin Williamson’s abusive, threatening texts as ‘sent in heat of moment’NerysHughes said:The headline news all day yesterday on the BBC was man in a mood sends grumpy texts.
Now Grant Shapps says they were sent in a ‘moment of frustration’
They weren’t. They were sent over a five week period from 13 September to 17 October
#skynews
https://twitter.com/paul__johnson/status/15895369013963202611 -
Exclusive with @Gabriel_Pogrund
Minister claims Gavin Williamson raised details about her private life in bid to silence her when she was on backbenches
She contacted CCHQ over weekend
Allies of Williamson says he raised matter in pastoral capacity
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/9333dafe-5e0d-11ed-8929-890946367602?shareToken=8c6317d7a7093d150f296d217c86b53e
1 -
Labour’s doing ok in the polls despite thatScott_xP said:
Tony Blair says hiStillWaters said:I’m not so sure - I think “toxic legacies” can purge themselves pretty quickly once the protagonist is no longer a player
0 -
Good morningboulay said:I had the joy of listening to Chris Mason and Nick Robinson this morning interviewing each other about Sunak and Cop27, after a couple of minutes on Cop27 and policies they proceeded to focus on Boris going to Cop.
The childish glee as they talked about how Sunak only went when Boris said he was going and “is Boris a backseat driver.” With Morris saying he will be finding Boris to ask him about it etc.
It made me so angry as it summed up a part of the problem with Politics in this country where it was a perfect example of journalists more interested in the games and trying to get “angles” and bitchy showbiz as politics news.
Maybe just dig into the sodding policies and ideas and stop the excited gossip games.
The media are not fit for purpose especially at time when balanced informative information is essential rather than the tittle tattle and gotcha moments
There is nothing more ridiculous than journalists shouting across the street at politicians, or worse hounding them coming out of their own front door
On climate change change the IMF have just announced at COP27 their concerns at the increasing use of coal and that inflation will be hard to reduce
I notice that while labour are calling for a GE apparently and understandably, they do not want one yet and are desperately hoping the conservatives can mitigate some of the economic damage caused by covid, war and the ill fated 6 weeks of the hapless Truss administration
As things are at the moment I expect Starmer will be the next PM but I am far from certain that he or labour are going to find it an enjoyable proposition as I expect that governments across Europe and beyond are going to struggle for years to come, sadly
0 -
The Presidency is not the only thing that matters in US politics, and if enough election stealers are elected in enough places then the vote in 2024 no longer matters. Trump will be installed President regardless.TimS said:
On the other hand massive mid term swings and cohabitation for 2 years seem to be the norm in American politics, so if the Republicans only manage a modest one might that point to another comfortable Biden win in 2024?LostPassword said:
This is true and yet this is the most favourable of the three Senate cycles for the Dems. If they lose ground this time they will likely have lost control of the Senate for six years.rcs1000 said:
Quite:Sean_F said:
I don't think that the Democrats are heading for an unusually bad night. The polls have simply reverted to where you would expect them to be.IanB2 said:Bloody dog’s bladder must be going the same way as mine, ringing the bell to go out in the middle of the night.
When I was in the US just a few weeks back, the Dems seemed to be heading towards good results, on the back of record levels of female voter registrations. If the polls are right, it’s gone bad for them quite quickly.
A loss of 1-2 Senate seats and a small beating in the House would be in-line (or slightly better than) what you would expect from the incumbent party at this point in the cycle.
Clinton lost 8 Senate seats and 54 seats in the House.
Obama dropped 6 Senate seats and 63 seats in the House.
I would expect Biden to comfortably outperform that.
Also, US politics is in an unusual state. If the Dems cannot achieve unusually robust results after Jan 6th and Dobbs, against an unrepentant GOP, then they are in big trouble. They will have essentially lost the political argument that respect for the democratic process matters, and shown themselves unable to mobilize voters.1 -
A lesson for the Tories here, who think "wokeness" outweighs the economy?Sean_F said:
Dobbs does not outweigh the current economic situation.swing_voter said:
I agree, the talk was all about the Roe v Wade abortion ruling mobilising female voters... any idea what has happened to the Dems?IanB2 said:Bloody dog’s bladder must be going the same way as mine, ringing the bell to go out in the middle of the night.
When I was in the US just a few weeks back, the Dems seemed to be heading towards good results, on the back of record levels of female voter registrations. If the polls are right, it’s gone bad for them quite quickly.0 -
Is it only me who thinks Desantis would be more of a disaster for America and the world than Trump? Trump was worryingly erratic and his rhetoric could be dangerous but at heart he was Democrat who was too disorganised to properly mount a coup or even get Obamacare repealed. Desantis has all of the dangerous MAGA beliefs with the additional worries that he actually believes them and is smart enough to carry them out.0
-
Maybe, but this is a bit like arguing over which combination of arm and leg you'd rather have amputated. You can make a case for one side over the other, but the difference isn't that consequential compared to the effect of amputating either.Stereodog said:Is it only me who thinks Desantis would be more of a disaster for America and the world than Trump? Trump was worryingly erratic and his rhetoric could be dangerous but at heart he was Democrat who was too disorganised to properly mount a coup or even get Obamacare repealed. Desantis has all of the dangerous MAGA beliefs with the additional worries that he actually believes them and is smart enough to carry them out.
Either of them is beyond the event horizon.2 -
Large increases in early voting and young voter engagement are the main hope for Dems.jamesdoyle said:
I'm here for the politics, not the betting! But I'd agree NV is not a good betting opportunity.Alistair said:
As I posted yesterday there has been a big surge in Postal votes from Registered Dems. I repeteated over the next 2 days it gets the so called "Clark County Firewall" up to 2018 levels which was a 5 point win for the Dems.jamesdoyle said:Well, well. Jon Ralston* now estimates that CCM will (probably) pull it out in NV. That's s big switch, he's been very strong on the Reps winning there for months.
*For those who don't know, he's a veteran politics journalist in NV, and very highly regarded. Very experienced at crunching the numbers.
https://twitter.com/TheNVIndy/status/1589457152715870208?t=sxgStljDGMf0IAnzuBjghw&s=19
I'm waaaaay less bullish than Ralston is. I think he makes an uncomfortably optimistic assumption about how Washoe will vote. And as a result I still think it is a GOP pickup unless I see better numbers for the Dems.
ON THE OTHER HAND I have went through as many of the recent polls showing Laxalt ahead as I could and with the exception of the Emerson poll they all have some just pure bullshit in the subsamples. The Emerson poll seems really solid though and is a comfortable Laxalt win. So once again I am going GOP pickup unless there is (non garbo) polling out today that says otherwise.
Once again, my recommendation is do not bet.
Two comments on yours: Emerson have had a real Rep lean this time out, and have largely been quite a way from the polling pack (not necessarily a bad thing). There has been some talk, from Emerson as well, that they may have overcompensated for last time.
Ralston has been consistently saying that Laxalt would win in NV - IIRC, he said from the moment Laxalt was nominated that it would be an R gain. He's changed his mind based on what's happened with the early voting, which he has an excellent record on. Still so close a tiny shift could swing it either way though, but hopeful.0 -
He has gifted a large number of other toxic protagonists to the party, and fundamentally changed a large part of the activist base, so any such 'purge' is unlikely to be a rapid process.StillWaters said:
I’m not so sure - I think “toxic legacies” can purge themselves pretty quickly once the protagonist is no longer a playerNigelb said:This is an interesting metric regarding whether or not he gets the nomination.
Though his toxic legacy will live on, irrespective.
Record number of Republicans support party over Trump: NBC poll
https://thehill.com/homenews/3722608-record-number-of-republicans-support-party-over-trump-nbc-poll/
And this...
GOP megadonor: I’m ready to back DeSantis for president in ’24
Billionaire CEO Ken Griffin is a bit tired of Donald Trump. "For a litany of reasons, I think it’s time to move on to the next generation,” he said in an interview.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/06/gop-megadonor-desantis-24-ken-griffin-000652740 -
No-one on the Tory side thinks that. We think Labour activists think that, and therefore it's good tactics to get them talking about it, so voters think Labour think " "wokeness" outweighs the economy".No_Offence_Alan said:
A lesson for the Tories here, who think "wokeness" outweighs the economy?Sean_F said:
Dobbs does not outweigh the current economic situation.swing_voter said:
I agree, the talk was all about the Roe v Wade abortion ruling mobilising female voters... any idea what has happened to the Dems?IanB2 said:Bloody dog’s bladder must be going the same way as mine, ringing the bell to go out in the middle of the night.
When I was in the US just a few weeks back, the Dems seemed to be heading towards good results, on the back of record levels of female voter registrations. If the polls are right, it’s gone bad for them quite quickly.2 -
They said that about Corbyn too. Depends who the successor isNigelb said:
He has gifted a large number of other toxic protagonists to the party, and fundamentally changed a large part of the activist base, so any such 'purge' is unlikely to be a rapid process.StillWaters said:
I’m not so sure - I think “toxic legacies” can purge themselves pretty quickly once the protagonist is no longer a playerNigelb said:This is an interesting metric regarding whether or not he gets the nomination.
Though his toxic legacy will live on, irrespective.
Record number of Republicans support party over Trump: NBC poll
https://thehill.com/homenews/3722608-record-number-of-republicans-support-party-over-trump-nbc-poll/
And this...
GOP megadonor: I’m ready to back DeSantis for president in ’24
Billionaire CEO Ken Griffin is a bit tired of Donald Trump. "For a litany of reasons, I think it’s time to move on to the next generation,” he said in an interview.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/06/gop-megadonor-desantis-24-ken-griffin-00065274
0 -
No one knows how serious Sunak is about climate policy, which was the underlying point of the exchange.boulay said:I had the joy of listening to Chris Mason and Nick Robinson this morning interviewing each other about Sunak and Cop27, after a couple of minutes on Cop27 and policies they proceeded to focus on Boris going to Cop.
The childish glee as they talked about how Sunak only went when Boris said he was going and “is Boris a backseat driver.” With Morris saying he will be finding Boris to ask him about it etc.
It made me so angry as it summed up a part of the problem with Politics in this country where it was a perfect example of journalists more interested in the games and trying to get “angles” and bitchy showbiz as politics news.
Maybe just dig into the sodding policies and ideas and stop the excited gossip games.
I find your irritation overdone, FWIW.
Both Robinson and Mason are pretty good at their jobs.0 -
On that note, you can currently lay Trump for the nomination below evens. I think that's decent value, given the several ways in which he might not end up with the nomination.Nigelb said:This is an interesting metric regarding whether or not he gets the nomination.
Though his toxic legacy will live on, irrespective.
Record number of Republicans support party over Trump: NBC poll
https://thehill.com/homenews/3722608-record-number-of-republicans-support-party-over-trump-nbc-poll/
And this...
GOP megadonor: I’m ready to back DeSantis for president in ’24
Billionaire CEO Ken Griffin is a bit tired of Donald Trump. "For a litany of reasons, I think it’s time to move on to the next generation,” he said in an interview.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/06/gop-megadonor-desantis-24-ken-griffin-000652741 -
It does if you think the current economic situation - in the US - isn't that bad at all.Sean_F said:
Dobbs does not outweigh the current economic situation.swing_voter said:
I agree, the talk was all about the Roe v Wade abortion ruling mobilising female voters... any idea what has happened to the Dems?IanB2 said:Bloody dog’s bladder must be going the same way as mine, ringing the bell to go out in the middle of the night.
When I was in the US just a few weeks back, the Dems seemed to be heading towards good results, on the back of record levels of female voter registrations. If the polls are right, it’s gone bad for them quite quickly.
1 -
The Dobbs decision shouldn’t be discounted .
The true impact of this will only be known on election night . There’s currently a large gender gap in much of the polling and the key result from the exit polls will be the gender make up of the electorate.
1 -
I am absolutely fascinated by the Indiana Senate race.
There's only been 2 polls done, about 2 and 3 months ago now and one of those by the Dem candidate.
The polls had it as a 2 or 3 point GOP lead in a state won by Trump by 17 points in 2020 and by the GOP Senator up for re-election by 10 points in 2016.
It seems insane that no one has sprung for another poll.0 -
I’d characterise it more as trying to work out whether both methods of amputation will kill the patient through shock or whether one might be survivable.LostPassword said:
Maybe, but this is a bit like arguing over which combination of arm and leg you'd rather have amputated. You can make a case for one side over the other, but the difference isn't that consequential compared to the effect of amputating either.Stereodog said:Is it only me who thinks Desantis would be more of a disaster for America and the world than Trump? Trump was worryingly erratic and his rhetoric could be dangerous but at heart he was Democrat who was too disorganised to properly mount a coup or even get Obamacare repealed. Desantis has all of the dangerous MAGA beliefs with the additional worries that he actually believes them and is smart enough to carry them out.
Either of them is beyond the event horizon.1 -
The general theme of the media being too interested in process stories is right thought.Nigelb said:
No one knows how serious Sunak is about climate policy, which was the underlying point of the exchange.boulay said:I had the joy of listening to Chris Mason and Nick Robinson this morning interviewing each other about Sunak and Cop27, after a couple of minutes on Cop27 and policies they proceeded to focus on Boris going to Cop.
The childish glee as they talked about how Sunak only went when Boris said he was going and “is Boris a backseat driver.” With Morris saying he will be finding Boris to ask him about it etc.
It made me so angry as it summed up a part of the problem with Politics in this country where it was a perfect example of journalists more interested in the games and trying to get “angles” and bitchy showbiz as politics news.
Maybe just dig into the sodding policies and ideas and stop the excited gossip games.
I find your irritation overdone, FWIW.
Both Robinson and Mason are pretty good
at their jobs.
The Williamson texts are a point in case. They were pathetic and childish. Say nothing good about the man. But they weren’t “bullying and harassment”, don’t need an “investigation” and don’t say anything about Sunak’s judgement on appointing Williamson (independent of whether you think it’s a good appointment or not).
It’s a bit of blue on blue which the media is focusing on when there are things that actually matter going on.
2 -
Incidentally, Biden's data team and strategist are not a bunch of idiots like Hilary's were. Looking at where Biden is visiting suggests they think it is going to be a bad, bad night for the Dems.1
-
The US media seem determined to stick with the narrative that only the economy matters. It might be difficult for people in the UK to understand why abortion might play such a huge issue as we don’t have this debate here.Nigelb said:
It does if you think the current economic situation - in the US - isn't that bad at all.Sean_F said:
Dobbs does not outweigh the current economic situation.swing_voter said:
I agree, the talk was all about the Roe v Wade abortion ruling mobilising female voters... any idea what has happened to the Dems?IanB2 said:Bloody dog’s bladder must be going the same way as mine, ringing the bell to go out in the middle of the night.
When I was in the US just a few weeks back, the Dems seemed to be heading towards good results, on the back of record levels of female voter registrations. If the polls are right, it’s gone bad for them quite quickly.
Some women’s red line will be abortion regardless of the economic situation.
0 -
I see that Stop Oil have closed the M25 by scaling gantries.
Assuming they are of sound mind, why do we close the motorway? We don’t close it if there is someone on a bridge.
If they fall off, that’s at their own risk, and we deal with it then. If they drop something off we prosecute them. There’s not a meaningful risk to the drivers of cars.
2 -
I think we’ll know early as to whether it’s going to be a very bad night for the Dems .Alistair said:Incidentally, Biden's data team and strategist are not a bunch of idiots like Hilary's were. Looking at where Biden is visiting suggests they think it is going to be a bad, bad night for the Dems.
All eyes on NH . If Hassan holds on that would be a boost for the Dems .0 -
Sunak is not up to the job of PM.
Braverman
Williamson
COP
Various other U-turns
All point in the same direction.
Hunt appears to be the nearest there is to a grown up left in the parliamentary Conservative Party.2 -
Well if Hunt does take over let's just hope Joe Biden is given plenty of coaching before he announces it.SandyRentool said:Sunak is not up to the job of PM.
Braverman
Williamson
COP
Various other U-turns
All point in the same direction.
Hunt appears to be the nearest there is to a grown up left in the parliamentary Conservative Party.6 -
Possibly, but I think at the moment the media have the scent of blood and are desperate for more drama. Hence the overblown rubbish about Williamson being a dick on Whatsapp. I'd suggest the political reporters be careful what they wish for - open up the private comms route in politics and their own grubby links will get exposed too.SandyRentool said:Sunak is not up to the job of PM.
Braverman
Williamson
COP
Various other U-turns
All point in the same direction.
Hunt appears to be the nearest there is to a grown up left in the parliamentary Conservative Party.2 -
Maybe not - but in that case it could scarcely have been handled worse by the government in PR terms.StillWaters said:
The general theme of the media being too interested in process stories is right thought.Nigelb said:
No one knows how serious Sunak is about climate policy, which was the underlying point of the exchange.boulay said:I had the joy of listening to Chris Mason and Nick Robinson this morning interviewing each other about Sunak and Cop27, after a couple of minutes on Cop27 and policies they proceeded to focus on Boris going to Cop.
The childish glee as they talked about how Sunak only went when Boris said he was going and “is Boris a backseat driver.” With Morris saying he will be finding Boris to ask him about it etc.
It made me so angry as it summed up a part of the problem with Politics in this country where it was a perfect example of journalists more interested in the games and trying to get “angles” and bitchy showbiz as politics news.
Maybe just dig into the sodding policies and ideas and stop the excited gossip games.
I find your irritation overdone, FWIW.
Both Robinson and Mason are pretty good
at their jobs.
The Williamson texts are a point in case. They were pathetic and childish. Say nothing good about the man. But they weren’t “bullying and harassment”, don’t need an “investigation” and don’t say anything about Sunak’s judgement on appointing Williamson (independent of whether you think it’s a good appointment or not).
It’s a bit of blue on blue which the media is focusing on when there are things that actually matter going on.0 -
I'm not sure you'd survive a 70kg body falling through your windscreen at 80mph.StillWaters said:I see that Stop Oil have closed the M25 by scaling gantries.
Assuming they are of sound mind, why do we close the motorway? We don’t close it if there is someone on a bridge.
If they fall off, that’s at their own risk, and we deal with it then. If they drop something off we prosecute them. There’s not a meaningful risk to the drivers of cars.
Source: Wrote a minibus off hitting a deer near Ullapool.1 -
If Hassan goes down then it is a disastrous night for the Dems.nico679 said:
I think we’ll know early as to whether it’s going to be a very bad night for the Dems .Alistair said:Incidentally, Biden's data team and strategist are not a bunch of idiots like Hilary's were. Looking at where Biden is visiting suggests they think it is going to be a bad, bad night for the Dems.
All eyes on NH . If Hassan holds on that would be a boost for the Dems .0 -
Likely not but there’s a minimal probability of that happeningEabhal said:
I'm not sure you'd survive a 70kg body falling through your windscreen at 80mph.StillWaters said:I see that Stop Oil have closed the M25 by scaling gantries.
Assuming they are of sound mind, why do we close the motorway? We don’t close it if there is someone on a bridge.
If they fall off, that’s at their own risk, and we deal with it then. If they drop something off we prosecute them. There’s not a meaningful risk to the drivers of cars.
Source: Wrote a minibus off hitting a deer near Ullapool.0 -
Reminds me of the England Test Cricket team at its worst. No one seems able to get in and score a few runs. Sunak is flailing his bat around. If we get a wicket to end the Sunak/Hunt partnership then the full collapse is inevitable.SandyRentool said:Sunak is not up to the job of PM.
Braverman
Williamson
COP
Various other U-turns
All point in the same direction.
Hunt appears to be the nearest there is to a grown up left in the parliamentary Conservative Party.1 -
Nobody votes for journalists to make moral choices, thank goodness.turbotubbs said:
Possibly, but I think at the moment the media have the scent of blood and are desperate for more drama. Hence the overblown rubbish about Williamson being a dick on Whatsapp. I'd suggest the political reporters be careful what they wish for - open up the private comms route in politics and their own grubby links will get exposed too.SandyRentool said:Sunak is not up to the job of PM.
Braverman
Williamson
COP
Various other U-turns
All point in the same direction.
Hunt appears to be the nearest there is to a grown up left in the parliamentary Conservative Party.0 -
Voters in Georgia set record for early voting (Two and a half million)logical_song said:
Large increases in early voting and young voter engagement are the main hope for Dems.jamesdoyle said:
I'm here for the politics, not the betting! But I'd agree NV is not a good betting opportunity.Alistair said:
As I posted yesterday there has been a big surge in Postal votes from Registered Dems. I repeteated over the next 2 days it gets the so called "Clark County Firewall" up to 2018 levels which was a 5 point win for the Dems.jamesdoyle said:Well, well. Jon Ralston* now estimates that CCM will (probably) pull it out in NV. That's s big switch, he's been very strong on the Reps winning there for months.
*For those who don't know, he's a veteran politics journalist in NV, and very highly regarded. Very experienced at crunching the numbers.
https://twitter.com/TheNVIndy/status/1589457152715870208?t=sxgStljDGMf0IAnzuBjghw&s=19
I'm waaaaay less bullish than Ralston is. I think he makes an uncomfortably optimistic assumption about how Washoe will vote. And as a result I still think it is a GOP pickup unless I see better numbers for the Dems.
ON THE OTHER HAND I have went through as many of the recent polls showing Laxalt ahead as I could and with the exception of the Emerson poll they all have some just pure bullshit in the subsamples. The Emerson poll seems really solid though and is a comfortable Laxalt win. So once again I am going GOP pickup unless there is (non garbo) polling out today that says otherwise.
Once again, my recommendation is do not bet.
Two comments on yours: Emerson have had a real Rep lean this time out, and have largely been quite a way from the polling pack (not necessarily a bad thing). There has been some talk, from Emerson as well, that they may have overcompensated for last time.
Ralston has been consistently saying that Laxalt would win in NV - IIRC, he said from the moment Laxalt was nominated that it would be an R gain. He's changed his mind based on what's happened with the early voting, which he has an excellent record on. Still so close a tiny shift could swing it either way though, but hopeful.
Normally around 20% of young people vote in the midterms, will it be 40% this time?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1-34IOpjos0&t=21s0 -
In the last two months the anti-wokers, billionaires, and SCOTUS all shut up for a while, and a ton of candidates distanced themselves from Trump, letting them just talk about prices. Smart!1
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You cannot bribe or twistEPG said:
Nobody votes for journalists to make moral choices, thank goodness.turbotubbs said:
Possibly, but I think at the moment the media have the scent of blood and are desperate for more drama. Hence the overblown rubbish about Williamson being a dick on Whatsapp. I'd suggest the political reporters be careful what they wish for - open up the private comms route in politics and their own grubby links will get exposed too.SandyRentool said:Sunak is not up to the job of PM.
Braverman
Williamson
COP
Various other U-turns
All point in the same direction.
Hunt appears to be the nearest there is to a grown up left in the parliamentary Conservative Party.
Thank God! The British journalist
But, seeing what the man will do
Unbribed - there is no reason to!
2 -
Labour still bowling the odd wide and dropping catches.Jonathan said:
Reminds me of the England Test Cricket team at its worst. No one seems able to get in and score a few runs. Sunak is flailing his bat around. If we get a wicket to end the Sunak/Hunt partnership then the full collapse is inevitable.SandyRentool said:Sunak is not up to the job of PM.
Braverman
Williamson
COP
Various other U-turns
All point in the same direction.
Hunt appears to be the nearest there is to a grown up left in the parliamentary Conservative Party.
Meanwhile, there's an attention seeking streaker on the pitch, everyone can see it's Johnson.1 -
That’s a mental image I could have done without, thank youSelebian said:
Labour still bowling the odd wide and dropping catches.Jonathan said:
Reminds me of the England Test Cricket team at its worst. No one seems able to get in and score a few runs. Sunak is flailing his bat around. If we get a wicket to end the Sunak/Hunt partnership then the full collapse is inevitable.SandyRentool said:Sunak is not up to the job of PM.
Braverman
Williamson
COP
Various other U-turns
All point in the same direction.
Hunt appears to be the nearest there is to a grown up left in the parliamentary Conservative Party.
Meanwhile, there's an attention seeking streaker on the pitch, everyone can see it's Johnson.
0 -
The coat tails effect complIcates the picture in NH PA and Georgia.Alistair said:
If Hassan goes down then it is a disastrous night for the Dems.nico679 said:
I think we’ll know early as to whether it’s going to be a very bad night for the Dems .Alistair said:Incidentally, Biden's data team and strategist are not a bunch of idiots like Hilary's were. Looking at where Biden is visiting suggests they think it is going to be a bad, bad night for the Dems.
All eyes on NH . If Hassan holds on that would be a boost for the Dems .
In NH the GOP governor Sununu is popular and likely to easily win this could help Bolduc .
In PA the Dem candidate for governor Shapiro is polling more strongly than Fetterman so that could help him.
In Georgia Kemp should be re-elected and could help Walker . I can’t see Warnock winning given the need for 50 plus .
The best the Dems can hope for is to keep Walker below that mark and then it goes to a run-off.0 -
Hmm, me too, now I actually think about itStillWaters said:
That’s a mental image I could have done without, thank youSelebian said:
Labour still bowling the odd wide and dropping catches.Jonathan said:
Reminds me of the England Test Cricket team at its worst. No one seems able to get in and score a few runs. Sunak is flailing his bat around. If we get a wicket to end the Sunak/Hunt partnership then the full collapse is inevitable.SandyRentool said:Sunak is not up to the job of PM.
Braverman
Williamson
COP
Various other U-turns
All point in the same direction.
Hunt appears to be the nearest there is to a grown up left in the parliamentary Conservative Party.
Meanwhile, there's an attention seeking streaker on the pitch, everyone can see it's Johnson.
Apologies all
1 -
If that's the strategy, I'm not sure the execution is up to par, because mainly the people I notice banging on about 'woke' are the right...Endillion said:
No-one on the Tory side thinks that. We think Labour activists think that, and therefore it's good tactics to get them talking about it, so voters think Labour think " "wokeness" outweighs the economy".No_Offence_Alan said:A lesson for the Tories here, who think "wokeness" outweighs the economy?
4 -
Sunak wasnt tested enough hefore becoming pmSandyRentool said:Sunak is not up to the job of PM.
Braverman
Williamson
COP
Various other U-turns
All point in the same direction.
Hunt appears to be the nearest there is to a grown up left in the parliamentary Conservative Party.0 -
I think it is a mix of both in a way.pm215 said:
If that's the strategy, I'm not sure the execution is up to par, because mainly the people I notice banging on about 'woke' are the right...Endillion said:
No-one on the Tory side thinks that. We think Labour activists think that, and therefore it's good tactics to get them talking about it, so voters think Labour think " "wokeness" outweighs the economy".No_Offence_Alan said:A lesson for the Tories here, who think "wokeness" outweighs the economy?
a) It is only the right that is fixated by woke.
b) However if the right do bang on about an almost non existent issue the non-political may well think it is an issue and think the left are bonkers for being so woke, when in fact they aren't. It is a common practice for all side to play. Make your opponents seem like ideological nutters.0 -
If Trump gets in he will be more ruthless and extreme this time no doubt...the MAGA crowd are much angrier nowStereodog said:Is it only me who thinks Desantis would be more of a disaster for America and the world than Trump? Trump was worryingly erratic and his rhetoric could be dangerous but at heart he was Democrat who was too disorganised to properly mount a coup or even get Obamacare repealed. Desantis has all of the dangerous MAGA beliefs with the additional worries that he actually believes them and is smart enough to carry them out.
0 -
If the GOP win the House that will obviously be good news for them in terms of getting through more of their agenda and better still if they add the Senate.
However midterm results are not really an indicator for the next Presidential election. Obama and Bill Clinton both saw the Democrats lose control of the House and the House and Senate respectively in their first midterms in 1994 and 2010 but both were re elected in 1996 and 2012. Reagan saw the GOP lose House seats in 1982 as the Democrats retained control but was re elected in 1984.
It is true Trump did see the GOP lose the House in 2018 and he lost the Presidential election in 2020. However Carter saw the Democrats hold the House and Senate in 1978 but lost his re election battle in 1978.
Bush Jnr had the best first midterms for his party of any President in decades in 2002, with the GOP gaining House and Senate seats post 9/11. Yet he was only narrowly re elected in 2004 over Kerry and if Ohio had gone the other way would have lost2 -
This whole trying to generate strife and division thing is very tedious. It doesn’t work and, even if it did, this site doesn’t matter in the scheme of thingsMartin10 said:
If Trump gets in he will be more ruthless and extreme this time no doubt...the MAGA crowd are much angrier nowStereodog said:Is it only me who thinks Desantis would be more of a disaster for America and the world than Trump? Trump was worryingly erratic and his rhetoric could be dangerous but at heart he was Democrat who was too disorganised to properly mount a coup or even get Obamacare repealed. Desantis has all of the dangerous MAGA beliefs with the additional worries that he actually believes them and is smart enough to carry them out.
(With apologies to @rcs1000 )
1 -
I like that post. A lot of decent analysis which in summary says these elections are an indication of absolutely nothing whatsoever when it comes to the next presidential election.HYUFD said:If the GOP win the House that will obviously be good news for them in terms of getting through more of their agenda and better still if they add the Senate.
However midterm results are not really an indicator for the next Presidential election. Obama and Bill Clinton both saw the Democrats lose control of the House and the House and Senate respectively in their first midterms in 1994 and 2010 but both were re elected in 1996 and 2012. Reagan saw the GOP lose House seats in 1982 as the Democrats retained control but was re elected in 1984.
It is true Trump did see the GOP lose the House in 2018 and he lost the Presidential election in 2020. However Carter saw the Democrats hold the House and Senate in 1978 but lost his re election battle in 1978.
Bush Jnr had the best first midterms for his party of any President in decades in 2002, with the GOP gaining House and Senate seats post 9/11. Yet he was only narrowly re elected in 2004 over Kerry and if Ohio had gone the other way would have lost1 -
I think if the Tories stick to the specific issues in this space that voters care about (eg the Albanian armada) then they will be fine. If they keep banging on about things that most people don't care about then they will be punished because voters have a long list of things they want politicians to fix for them and will think it is ridiculous for them to be wasting time on marginal issues.kjh said:
I think it is a mix of both in a way.pm215 said:
If that's the strategy, I'm not sure the execution is up to par, because mainly the people I notice banging on about 'woke' are the right...Endillion said:
No-one on the Tory side thinks that. We think Labour activists think that, and therefore it's good tactics to get them talking about it, so voters think Labour think " "wokeness" outweighs the economy".No_Offence_Alan said:A lesson for the Tories here, who think "wokeness" outweighs the economy?
a) It is only the right that is fixated by woke.
b) However if the right do bang on about an almost non existent issue the non-political may well think it is an issue and think the left are bonkers for being so woke, when in fact they aren't. It is a common practice for all side to play. Make your opponents seem like ideological nutters.
What I find weird is that so many people on the right seem to confuse left wing nutters on Twitter with the Labour Party. Some loons staking out extreme woke positions doesn't mean that most left of centre people sign up to the same views.1 -
I suspect that if he hadn't lucked into being Chancellor when Javid resigned a few weeks before lockdown, he'd be nowhere.Martin10 said:
Sunak wasnt tested enough hefore becoming pmSandyRentool said:Sunak is not up to the job of PM.
Braverman
Williamson
COP
Various other U-turns
All point in the same direction.
Hunt appears to be the nearest there is to a grown up left in the parliamentary Conservative Party.
All that "free money" got linked to him, and provided cover for not being a very good politician.2 -
Clinton had a strong us economy up to 96 and obama had a recovery from thrme financial crisis...doubt biden will have such a backdropkjh said:
I like that post. A lot of decent analysis which in summary says these elections are an indication of absolutely nothing whatsoever when it comes to the next presidential election.HYUFD said:If the GOP win the House that will obviously be good news for them in terms of getting through more of their agenda and better still if they add the Senate.
However midterm results are not really an indicator for the next Presidential election. Obama and Bill Clinton both saw the Democrats lose control of the House and the House and Senate respectively in their first midterms in 1994 and 2010 but both were re elected in 1996 and 2012. Reagan saw the GOP lose House seats in 1982 as the Democrats retained control but was re elected in 1984.
It is true Trump did see the GOP lose the House in 2018 and he lost the Presidential election in 2020. However Carter saw the Democrats hold the House and Senate in 1978 but lost his re election battle in 1978.
Bush Jnr had the best first midterms for his party of any President in decades in 2002, with the GOP gaining House and Senate seats post 9/11. Yet he was only narrowly re elected in 2004 over Kerry and if Ohio had gone the other way would have lost0 -
Thanks, should be Carter lost his re election battle in 1980 not 1978 though, apologieskjh said:
I like that post. A lot of decent analysis which in summary says these elections are an indication of absolutely nothing whatsoever when it comes to the next presidential election.HYUFD said:If the GOP win the House that will obviously be good news for them in terms of getting through more of their agenda and better still if they add the Senate.
However midterm results are not really an indicator for the next Presidential election. Obama and Bill Clinton both saw the Democrats lose control of the House and the House and Senate respectively in their first midterms in 1994 and 2010 but both were re elected in 1996 and 2012. Reagan saw the GOP lose House seats in 1982 as the Democrats retained control but was re elected in 1984.
It is true Trump did see the GOP lose the House in 2018 and he lost the Presidential election in 2020. However Carter saw the Democrats hold the House and Senate in 1978 but lost his re election battle in 1978.
Bush Jnr had the best first midterms for his party of any President in decades in 2002, with the GOP gaining House and Senate seats post 9/11. Yet he was only narrowly re elected in 2004 over Kerry and if Ohio had gone the other way would have lost0 -
Though if the GOP take Congress they also become responsible for the economy, not just BidenMartin10 said:
Clinton had a strong us economy up to 96 and obama had a recovery from thrme financial crisis...doubt biden will have such a backdropkjh said:
I like that post. A lot of decent analysis which in summary says these elections are an indication of absolutely nothing whatsoever when it comes to the next presidential election.HYUFD said:If the GOP win the House that will obviously be good news for them in terms of getting through more of their agenda and better still if they add the Senate.
However midterm results are not really an indicator for the next Presidential election. Obama and Bill Clinton both saw the Democrats lose control of the House and the House and Senate respectively in their first midterms in 1994 and 2010 but both were re elected in 1996 and 2012. Reagan saw the GOP lose House seats in 1982 as the Democrats retained control but was re elected in 1984.
It is true Trump did see the GOP lose the House in 2018 and he lost the Presidential election in 2020. However Carter saw the Democrats hold the House and Senate in 1978 but lost his re election battle in 1978.
Bush Jnr had the best first midterms for his party of any President in decades in 2002, with the GOP gaining House and Senate seats post 9/11. Yet he was only narrowly re elected in 2004 over Kerry and if Ohio had gone the other way would have lost1 -
@HYUFD is that really you? Admitting to an error? Are you ok? Only joking of course.HYUFD said:
Thanks, should be Carter lost his re election battle in 1980 not 1978 though, apologieskjh said:
I like that post. A lot of decent analysis which in summary says these elections are an indication of absolutely nothing whatsoever when it comes to the next presidential election.HYUFD said:If the GOP win the House that will obviously be good news for them in terms of getting through more of their agenda and better still if they add the Senate.
However midterm results are not really an indicator for the next Presidential election. Obama and Bill Clinton both saw the Democrats lose control of the House and the House and Senate respectively in their first midterms in 1994 and 2010 but both were re elected in 1996 and 2012. Reagan saw the GOP lose House seats in 1982 as the Democrats retained control but was re elected in 1984.
It is true Trump did see the GOP lose the House in 2018 and he lost the Presidential election in 2020. However Carter saw the Democrats hold the House and Senate in 1978 but lost his re election battle in 1978.
Bush Jnr had the best first midterms for his party of any President in decades in 2002, with the GOP gaining House and Senate seats post 9/11. Yet he was only narrowly re elected in 2004 over Kerry and if Ohio had gone the other way would have lost2 -
StillWaters said:
This whole trying to generate strife and division thing is very tedious. It doesn’t work and, even if it did, this site doesn’t matter in the scheme of thingsMartin10 said:
If Trump gets in he will be more ruthless and extreme this time no doubt...the MAGA crowd are much angrier nowStereodog said:Is it only me who thinks Desantis would be more of a disaster for America and the world than Trump? Trump was worryingly erratic and his rhetoric could be dangerous but at heart he was Democrat who was too disorganised to properly mount a coup or even get Obamacare repealed. Desantis has all of the dangerous MAGA beliefs with the additional worries that he actually believes them and is smart enough to carry them out.
(With apologies to @rcs1000 )
Someones having a bad day...im making a statement of fact....maybe you find the chaotic modern world too much for you....StillWaters said:
This whole trying to generate strife and division thing is very tedious. ItMartin10 said:
If Trump gets in he will be more ruthless and extreme this time no doubt...the MAGA crowd are much angrier nowStereodog said:Is it only me who thinks Desantis would be more of a disaster for America and the world than Trump? Trump was worryingly erratic and his rhetoric could be dangerous but at heart he was Democrat who was too disorganised to properly mount a coup or even get Obamacare repealed. Desantis has all of the dangerous MAGA beliefs with the additional worries that he actually believes them and is smart enough to carry them out.
doesn’t work and, even if it did, this site doesn’t matter in the scheme of
things
(With apologies to @rcs1000 )
0 -
It's not just some nutters on twitter though. If you ever interact with an educational establishment, or the arts, or a museum, or pretty much any sphere of public life, you will be bombarded by the woke's views on matters of race, gender and the environment in the same way that more pious regimes will bombard you with the tenets of their particular faith, or that communist Eastern Europe would bombard you with the tenets of international socialism.OnlyLivingBoy said:
I think if the Tories stick to the specific issues in this space that voters care about (eg the Albanian armada) then they will be fine. If they keep banging on about things that most people don't care about then they will be punished because voters have a long list of things they want politicians to fix for them and will think it is ridiculous for them to be wasting time on marginal issues.kjh said:
I think it is a mix of both in a way.pm215 said:
If that's the strategy, I'm not sure the execution is up to par, because mainly the people I notice banging on about 'woke' are the right...Endillion said:
No-one on the Tory side thinks that. We think Labour activists think that, and therefore it's good tactics to get them talking about it, so voters think Labour think " "wokeness" outweighs the economy".No_Offence_Alan said:A lesson for the Tories here, who think "wokeness" outweighs the economy?
a) It is only the right that is fixated by woke.
b) However if the right do bang on about an almost non existent issue the non-political may well think it is an issue and think the left are bonkers for being so woke, when in fact they aren't. It is a common practice for all side to play. Make your opponents seem like ideological nutters.
What I find weird is that so many people on the right seem to confuse left wing nutters on Twitter with the Labour Party. Some loons staking out extreme woke positions doesn't mean that most left of centre people sign up to the same views.
2 -
True the schools bombard kids with woke propaganda...most now think churchill is a bad man...people have a right to be angry about this....Cookie said:
It's not just some nutters on twitter though. If you ever interact with an educational establishment, or the arts, or a museum, or pretty much any sphere of public life, you will be bombarded by the woke's views on matters of race, gender and the environment in the same way that more pious regimes will bombard you with the tenets of their particular faith, or that communist Eastern Europe would bombard you with the tenets of international socialism.OnlyLivingBoy said:
I think if the Tories stick to the specific issues in this space that voters care about (eg the Albanian armada) then they will be fine. If they keep banging on about things that most people don't care about then they will be punished because voters have a long list of things they want politicians to fix for them and will think it is ridiculous for them to be wasting time on marginal issues.kjh said:
I think it is a mix of both in a way.pm215 said:
If that's the strategy, I'm not sure the execution is up to par, because mainly the people I notice banging on about 'woke' are the right...Endillion said:
No-one on the Tory side thinks that. We think Labour activists think that, and therefore it's good tactics to get them talking about it, so voters think Labour think " "wokeness" outweighs the economy".No_Offence_Alan said:A lesson for the Tories here, who think "wokeness" outweighs the economy?
a) It is only the right that is fixated by woke.
b) However if the right do bang on about an almost non existent issue the non-political may well think it is an issue and think the left are bonkers for being so woke, when in fact they aren't. It is a common practice for all side to play. Make your opponents seem like ideological nutters.
What I find weird is that so many people on the right seem to confuse left wing nutters on Twitter with the Labour Party. Some loons staking out extreme woke positions doesn't mean that most left of centre people sign up to the same views.1 -
John Curtice writes for State of the Nation:
"Diverting voters’ attention towards immigration is no longer a route to electoral success."
Why immigration is no longer a vote-winner for the Tories
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1589565874134032384?s=46&t=Vt6moVCVbLe_hnJ8feM4aA2 -
Zelensky has said 4.5 million households in Ukraine now without power in nightly address0
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But is he ready to ask for 167 other offences to be taken into consideration?kjh said:
@HYUFD is that really you? Admitting to an error? Are you ok? Only joking of course.HYUFD said:
Thanks, should be Carter lost his re election battle in 1980 not 1978 though, apologieskjh said:
I like that post. A lot of decent analysis which in summary says these elections are an indication of absolutely nothing whatsoever when it comes to the next presidential election.HYUFD said:If the GOP win the House that will obviously be good news for them in terms of getting through more of their agenda and better still if they add the Senate.
However midterm results are not really an indicator for the next Presidential election. Obama and Bill Clinton both saw the Democrats lose control of the House and the House and Senate respectively in their first midterms in 1994 and 2010 but both were re elected in 1996 and 2012. Reagan saw the GOP lose House seats in 1982 as the Democrats retained control but was re elected in 1984.
It is true Trump did see the GOP lose the House in 2018 and he lost the Presidential election in 2020. However Carter saw the Democrats hold the House and Senate in 1978 but lost his re election battle in 1978.
Bush Jnr had the best first midterms for his party of any President in decades in 2002, with the GOP gaining House and Senate seats post 9/11. Yet he was only narrowly re elected in 2004 over Kerry and if Ohio had gone the other way would have lost
1 -
Opinion not factMartin10 said:StillWaters said:
This whole trying to generate strife and division thing is very tedious. It doesn’t work and, even if it did, this site doesn’t matter in the scheme of thingsMartin10 said:
If Trump gets in he will be more ruthless and extreme this time no doubt...the MAGA crowd are much angrier nowStereodog said:Is it only me who thinks Desantis would be more of a disaster for America and the world than Trump? Trump was worryingly erratic and his rhetoric could be dangerous but at heart he was Democrat who was too disorganised to properly mount a coup or even get Obamacare repealed. Desantis has all of the dangerous MAGA beliefs with the additional worries that he actually believes them and is smart enough to carry them out.
(With apologies to @rcs1000 )
Someones having a bad day...im making a statement of fact....maybe you find the chaotic modern world too much for you....StillWaters said:
This whole trying to generate strife and division thing is very tedious. ItMartin10 said:
If Trump gets in he will be more ruthless and extreme this time no doubt...the MAGA crowd are much angrier nowStereodog said:Is it only me who thinks Desantis would be more of a disaster for America and the world than Trump? Trump was worryingly erratic and his rhetoric could be dangerous but at heart he was Democrat who was too disorganised to properly mount a coup or even get Obamacare repealed. Desantis has all of the dangerous MAGA beliefs with the additional worries that he actually believes them and is smart enough to carry them out.
doesn’t work and, even if it did, this site doesn’t matter in the scheme of
things
(With apologies to @rcs1000 )0 -
Being PM is difficult. Whilst Sunak may well be a technocrat, you need to be a politician with judgement as well.Martin10 said:
Sunak wasnt tested enough hefore becoming pmSandyRentool said:Sunak is not up to the job of PM.
Braverman
Williamson
COP
Various other U-turns
All point in the same direction.
Hunt appears to be the nearest there is to a grown up left in the parliamentary Conservative Party.
Boris was a politician, but no technocrat. May was too much a technocrat unable to make quick decisions, but without sufficient skills as a politician.
Truss did not have judgement.
To be a good PM, I think that you need to be a politican, but with sufficient technocratic skills to keep on top of your brief and make quick decisions; a good administration can make up for lack of skills, but not judgement.
An excellent PM would have both. Thatcher had both.0 -
Its getting cold in ukraine now...not nice to be without power....reason why people like kissinger are calling for negotiationsDriver said:
What are your bosses trying to achieve by doing that?Martin10 said:Zelensky has said 4.5 million households in Ukraine now without power in nightly address
-1
