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If punters are right tomorrow’s MidTerms will good for GOP – politicalbetting.com
If punters are right tomorrow’s MidTerms will good for GOP – politicalbetting.com
The charts show the betting trend for tomorrow’s big MidTerm elections when it is looking as though the Republicans with take both the House and the Senate. The party will also do well in hundreds of state elections.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_midterm_election#Historical_record_of_midterm
But I'm not sure that Tom Cotton has any special information here.
When I was in the US just a few weeks back, the Dems seemed to be heading towards good results, on the back of record levels of female voter registrations. If the polls are right, it’s gone bad for them quite quickly.
It seems his diplomatic judgment is no better than his domestic political judgment.
However, one piece of good news for Democrats - Ralston predicts Cortez Masto will hold on in NV (although he has hedged his bets):
https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/crystal-ball-says-cortez-masto-hangs-on-sisolak-doesnt-and-dems-retain-two-of-three-house-seats
FWIW, I think we don't pay enough attention to the Governor races. I think Americans are more likely to trek to the polls to vote for Governor than for Senator.
A decent Governor (or candidate) makes a massive difference in a Senate race.
And that boosts Laxalt and Walker, while it hampers Oz. AZ is a harder call: Hobbs is a dreadful candidate for the Dems, but Lake is an incredibly divisive one for the Republicans.
If we assume the polls are broadly right (which they probably aren't), and that Governorship races matter, that suggests:
R gain NV
D gain PA
R leads in GA (albeit it may well go to run-off)
and...
R probably win AZ.
And, of course, if the Republicans have already gained the Senate, then I would expect Walker to win in a run-off.
Republican gains in the House, Governorships, and Senate are what one should expect, given that it's mid-term, and given the current economic situation.
A loss of 1-2 Senate seats and a small beating in the House would be in-line (or slightly better than) what you would expect from the incumbent party at this point in the cycle.
Clinton lost 8 Senate seats and 54 seats in the House.
Obama dropped 6 Senate seats and 63 seats in the House.
I would expect Biden to comfortably outperform that.
There are exceptions (eg New Hampshire, Oregon) but in general now, people vote pretty much the way for Governors and Senators in the same cycle.
*For those who don't know, he's a veteran politics journalist in NV, and very highly regarded. Very experienced at crunching the numbers.
https://twitter.com/TheNVIndy/status/1589457152715870208?t=sxgStljDGMf0IAnzuBjghw&s=19
It's defensible as sound monetary policy, even though it looks as though US inflation has peaked, but the timing of the recent rates rises has been dismal for the Democrats midterm prospects.
Not put any money on it yet, though.
I long since closed out my short of Republican control of the Senate (profitably), and I'm half tempted to have another dabble.
I'm waaaaay less bullish than Ralston is. I think he makes an uncomfortably optimistic assumption about how Washoe will vote. And as a result I still think it is a GOP pickup unless I see better numbers for the Dems.
ON THE OTHER HAND I have went through as many of the recent polls showing Laxalt ahead as I could and with the exception of the Emerson poll they all have some just pure bullshit in the subsamples. The Emerson poll seems really solid though and is a comfortable Laxalt win. So once again I am going GOP pickup unless there is (non garbo) polling out today that says otherwise.
Once again, my recommendation is do not bet.
Compared to the rest of the world they are doing good but compared to last year things are rough.
EDIT: I mean, Biden's job numbers are absolutely incredible but that doesn't help people who already have a job pay for gas that is 40% higher than when Biden took over.
Two comments on yours: Emerson have had a real Rep lean this time out, and have largely been quite a way from the polling pack (not necessarily a bad thing). There has been some talk, from Emerson as well, that they may have overcompensated for last time.
Ralston has been consistently saying that Laxalt would win in NV - IIRC, he said from the moment Laxalt was nominated that it would be an R gain. He's changed his mind based on what's happened with the early voting, which he has an excellent record on. Still so close a tiny shift could swing it either way though, but hopeful.
Also, US politics is in an unusual state. If the Dems cannot achieve unusually robust results after Jan 6th and Dobbs, against an unrepentant GOP, then they are in big trouble. They will have essentially lost the political argument that respect for the democratic process matters, and shown themselves unable to mobilize voters.
Though his toxic legacy will live on, irrespective.
Record number of Republicans support party over Trump: NBC poll
https://thehill.com/homenews/3722608-record-number-of-republicans-support-party-over-trump-nbc-poll/
And this...
GOP megadonor: I’m ready to back DeSantis for president in ’24
Billionaire CEO Ken Griffin is a bit tired of Donald Trump. "For a litany of reasons, I think it’s time to move on to the next generation,” he said in an interview.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/06/gop-megadonor-desantis-24-ken-griffin-00065274
That said his article is still heavily caveated and on my part the Dem voter registration numbers look weak.
The childish glee as they talked about how Sunak only went when Boris said he was going and “is Boris a backseat driver.” With Morris saying he will be finding Boris to ask him about it etc.
It made me so angry as it summed up a part of the problem with Politics in this country where it was a perfect example of journalists more interested in the games and trying to get “angles” and bitchy showbiz as politics news.
Maybe just dig into the sodding policies and ideas and stop the excited gossip games.
* well an asterisk anyway, but that’s close enough for government work
In terms of the polling it’s been all over the place because of GOP biased outfits dropping lots of polls and trying to show momentum for their side .
The non- partisan polling shows a much closer picture . Another thing to bear in mind there are quite a few house seats which are not being contested by the Dems . This means the generic ballot polling could be over estimating GOP gains .
Of the 17 uncontested seats only 3 are Dem incumbents .
Then there’s also seats where it’s a third party candidate only in opposition .
That breaks 10 to 3 in the GOPs favour .
The Dems could keep the house with as little as a 1.5% lead nationally .
Even allowing for all these caveats the GOP should still take the house but a lot of the races could be close .
Now Grant Shapps says they were sent in a ‘moment of frustration’
They weren’t. They were sent over a five week period from 13 September to 17 October
#skynews
https://twitter.com/paul__johnson/status/1589536901396320261
Minister claims Gavin Williamson raised details about her private life in bid to silence her when she was on backbenches
She contacted CCHQ over weekend
Allies of Williamson says he raised matter in pastoral capacity
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/9333dafe-5e0d-11ed-8929-890946367602?shareToken=8c6317d7a7093d150f296d217c86b53e
The media are not fit for purpose especially at time when balanced informative information is essential rather than the tittle tattle and gotcha moments
There is nothing more ridiculous than journalists shouting across the street at politicians, or worse hounding them coming out of their own front door
On climate change change the IMF have just announced at COP27 their concerns at the increasing use of coal and that inflation will be hard to reduce
I notice that while labour are calling for a GE apparently and understandably, they do not want one yet and are desperately hoping the conservatives can mitigate some of the economic damage caused by covid, war and the ill fated 6 weeks of the hapless Truss administration
As things are at the moment I expect Starmer will be the next PM but I am far from certain that he or labour are going to find it an enjoyable proposition as I expect that governments across Europe and beyond are going to struggle for years to come, sadly
Either of them is beyond the event horizon.
I find your irritation overdone, FWIW.
Both Robinson and Mason are pretty good at their jobs.
The true impact of this will only be known on election night . There’s currently a large gender gap in much of the polling and the key result from the exit polls will be the gender make up of the electorate.
There's only been 2 polls done, about 2 and 3 months ago now and one of those by the Dem candidate.
The polls had it as a 2 or 3 point GOP lead in a state won by Trump by 17 points in 2020 and by the GOP Senator up for re-election by 10 points in 2016.
It seems insane that no one has sprung for another poll.
The Williamson texts are a point in case. They were pathetic and childish. Say nothing good about the man. But they weren’t “bullying and harassment”, don’t need an “investigation” and don’t say anything about Sunak’s judgement on appointing Williamson (independent of whether you think it’s a good appointment or not).
It’s a bit of blue on blue which the media is focusing on when there are things that actually matter going on.
Some women’s red line will be abortion regardless of the economic situation.
Assuming they are of sound mind, why do we close the motorway? We don’t close it if there is someone on a bridge.
If they fall off, that’s at their own risk, and we deal with it then. If they drop something off we prosecute them. There’s not a meaningful risk to the drivers of cars.
All eyes on NH . If Hassan holds on that would be a boost for the Dems .
Braverman
Williamson
COP
Various other U-turns
All point in the same direction.
Hunt appears to be the nearest there is to a grown up left in the parliamentary Conservative Party.
Source: Wrote a minibus off hitting a deer near Ullapool.
Normally around 20% of young people vote in the midterms, will it be 40% this time?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1-34IOpjos0&t=21s
Thank God! The British journalist
But, seeing what the man will do
Unbribed - there is no reason to!
Meanwhile, there's an attention seeking streaker on the pitch, everyone can see it's Johnson.
In NH the GOP governor Sununu is popular and likely to easily win this could help Bolduc .
In PA the Dem candidate for governor Shapiro is polling more strongly than Fetterman so that could help him.
In Georgia Kemp should be re-elected and could help Walker . I can’t see Warnock winning given the need for 50 plus .
The best the Dems can hope for is to keep Walker below that mark and then it goes to a run-off.
Apologies all
a) It is only the right that is fixated by woke.
b) However if the right do bang on about an almost non existent issue the non-political may well think it is an issue and think the left are bonkers for being so woke, when in fact they aren't. It is a common practice for all side to play. Make your opponents seem like ideological nutters.
However midterm results are not really an indicator for the next Presidential election. Obama and Bill Clinton both saw the Democrats lose control of the House and the House and Senate respectively in their first midterms in 1994 and 2010 but both were re elected in 1996 and 2012. Reagan saw the GOP lose House seats in 1982 as the Democrats retained control but was re elected in 1984.
It is true Trump did see the GOP lose the House in 2018 and he lost the Presidential election in 2020. However Carter saw the Democrats hold the House and Senate in 1978 but lost his re election battle in 1978.
Bush Jnr had the best first midterms for his party of any President in decades in 2002, with the GOP gaining House and Senate seats post 9/11. Yet he was only narrowly re elected in 2004 over Kerry and if Ohio had gone the other way would have lost
(With apologies to @rcs1000 )
What I find weird is that so many people on the right seem to confuse left wing nutters on Twitter with the Labour Party. Some loons staking out extreme woke positions doesn't mean that most left of centre people sign up to the same views.
All that "free money" got linked to him, and provided cover for not being a very good politician.
"Diverting voters’ attention towards immigration is no longer a route to electoral success."
Why immigration is no longer a vote-winner for the Tories
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1589565874134032384?s=46&t=Vt6moVCVbLe_hnJ8feM4aA
Boris was a politician, but no technocrat. May was too much a technocrat unable to make quick decisions, but without sufficient skills as a politician.
Truss did not have judgement.
To be a good PM, I think that you need to be a politican, but with sufficient technocratic skills to keep on top of your brief and make quick decisions; a good administration can make up for lack of skills, but not judgement.
An excellent PM would have both. Thatcher had both.