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If punters are right tomorrow’s MidTerms will good for GOP – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 15 in General
imageIf punters are right tomorrow’s MidTerms will good for GOP – politicalbetting.com

The charts show the betting trend for tomorrow’s big MidTerm elections when it is looking as though the Republicans with take both the House and the Senate. The party will also do well in hundreds of state elections.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 47,047
    It's only a platform if Trump isn't in jail....
  • TheKitchenCabinetTheKitchenCabinet Posts: 1,049
    edited November 7
    The fact that Tom Cotton is not running for the 2024 GOP nomination suggests that he thinks (1) it's almost certain Trump will run and (2) the results will be very good for the GOP, which will bolster Trump's claims to be the nominee. If the GOP takes GA, AZ and NH, and keeps PA, plus pulls something off like the NY Governorship, Trump will be claiming it's down to him given the candidates there received his endorsements.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,402
    Mid-terms are not necessarily an omen. Both Clinton and Obama suffered mid-term reverses before winning re-election two years later.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_midterm_election#Historical_record_of_midterm
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,484

    The fact that Tom Cotton is not running for the 2024 GOP nomination suggests that he thinks (1) it's almost certain Trump will run and (2) the results will be very good for the GOP, which will bolster Trump's claims to be the nominee. If the GOP takes GA, AZ and NH, and keeps PA, plus pulls something off like the NY Governorship, Trump will be claiming it's down to him given the candidates there received his endorsements.

    Well, it's highly likely to be a very good night for the GOP and it's highly likely that Trump will run again.

    But I'm not sure that Tom Cotton has any special information here.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,824
    Bloody dog’s bladder must be going the same way as mine, ringing the bell to go out in the middle of the night.

    When I was in the US just a few weeks back, the Dems seemed to be heading towards good results, on the back of record levels of female voter registrations. If the polls are right, it’s gone bad for them quite quickly.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,313
    IanB2 said:

    Bloody dog’s bladder must be going the same way as mine, ringing the bell to go out in the middle of the night.

    When I was in the US just a few weeks back, the Dems seemed to be heading towards good results, on the back of record levels of female voter registrations. If the polls are right, it’s gone bad for them quite quickly.

    I agree, the talk was all about the Roe v Wade abortion ruling mobilising female voters... any idea what has happened to the Dems?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,402

    IanB2 said:

    Bloody dog’s bladder must be going the same way as mine, ringing the bell to go out in the middle of the night.

    When I was in the US just a few weeks back, the Dems seemed to be heading towards good results, on the back of record levels of female voter registrations. If the polls are right, it’s gone bad for them quite quickly.

    I agree, the talk was all about the Roe v Wade abortion ruling mobilising female voters... any idea what has happened to the Dems?
    If American polls weight by past vote, they will not count newly-registered lady Democrats. Our own opinion polls have had this problem.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,890
    Remarkable that Sunak is now trying to portray himself as the leader of the COP27 summit.

    It seems his diplomatic judgment is no better than his domestic political judgment.
  • rcs1000 said:

    The fact that Tom Cotton is not running for the 2024 GOP nomination suggests that he thinks (1) it's almost certain Trump will run and (2) the results will be very good for the GOP, which will bolster Trump's claims to be the nominee. If the GOP takes GA, AZ and NH, and keeps PA, plus pulls something off like the NY Governorship, Trump will be claiming it's down to him given the candidates there received his endorsements.

    Well, it's highly likely to be a very good night for the GOP and it's highly likely that Trump will run again.

    But I'm not sure that Tom Cotton has any special information here.
    No special information but enough to tell him that it's better to wait on that run. Given a poor GOP result would be likely to damage Trump's reputation, that suggests something.

    However, one piece of good news for Democrats - Ralston predicts Cortez Masto will hold on in NV (although he has hedged his bets):

    https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/crystal-ball-says-cortez-masto-hangs-on-sisolak-doesnt-and-dems-retain-two-of-three-house-seats
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,484
    edited November 7

    rcs1000 said:

    The fact that Tom Cotton is not running for the 2024 GOP nomination suggests that he thinks (1) it's almost certain Trump will run and (2) the results will be very good for the GOP, which will bolster Trump's claims to be the nominee. If the GOP takes GA, AZ and NH, and keeps PA, plus pulls something off like the NY Governorship, Trump will be claiming it's down to him given the candidates there received his endorsements.

    Well, it's highly likely to be a very good night for the GOP and it's highly likely that Trump will run again.

    But I'm not sure that Tom Cotton has any special information here.
    No special information but enough to tell him that it's better to wait on that run. Given a poor GOP result would be likely to damage Trump's reputation, that suggests something.

    However, one piece of good news for Democrats - Ralston predicts Cortez Masto will hold on in NV (although he has hedged his bets):

    https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/crystal-ball-says-cortez-masto-hangs-on-sisolak-doesnt-and-dems-retain-two-of-three-house-seats
    I would be very surprised if Cortez Mastro holds on: I think she is by far the most vulnerable of the Dems, and had her losing by 3-4 points. She's also hampered by the fact that the Republicans have a good Gubernatorial candidate, and Sislak is unpopular.

    FWIW, I think we don't pay enough attention to the Governor races. I think Americans are more likely to trek to the polls to vote for Governor than for Senator.

    A decent Governor (or candidate) makes a massive difference in a Senate race.

    And that boosts Laxalt and Walker, while it hampers Oz. AZ is a harder call: Hobbs is a dreadful candidate for the Dems, but Lake is an incredibly divisive one for the Republicans.

    If we assume the polls are broadly right (which they probably aren't), and that Governorship races matter, that suggests:

    R gain NV
    D gain PA
    R leads in GA (albeit it may well go to run-off)
    and...
    R probably win AZ.

    And, of course, if the Republicans have already gained the Senate, then I would expect Walker to win in a run-off.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 31,978

    Mid-terms are not necessarily an omen. Both Clinton and Obama suffered mid-term reverses before winning re-election two years later.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_midterm_election#Historical_record_of_midterm

    Quite so. Biden's ratings are pretty much what one should expect of a normal President, two years into his first time.

    Republican gains in the House, Governorships, and Senate are what one should expect, given that it's mid-term, and given the current economic situation.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 31,978
    IanB2 said:

    Bloody dog’s bladder must be going the same way as mine, ringing the bell to go out in the middle of the night.

    When I was in the US just a few weeks back, the Dems seemed to be heading towards good results, on the back of record levels of female voter registrations. If the polls are right, it’s gone bad for them quite quickly.

    I don't think that the Democrats are heading for an unusually bad night. The polls have simply reverted to where you would expect them to be.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 31,978

    IanB2 said:

    Bloody dog’s bladder must be going the same way as mine, ringing the bell to go out in the middle of the night.

    When I was in the US just a few weeks back, the Dems seemed to be heading towards good results, on the back of record levels of female voter registrations. If the polls are right, it’s gone bad for them quite quickly.

    I agree, the talk was all about the Roe v Wade abortion ruling mobilising female voters... any idea what has happened to the Dems?
    Dobbs does not outweigh the current economic situation.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,484
    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    Bloody dog’s bladder must be going the same way as mine, ringing the bell to go out in the middle of the night.

    When I was in the US just a few weeks back, the Dems seemed to be heading towards good results, on the back of record levels of female voter registrations. If the polls are right, it’s gone bad for them quite quickly.

    I don't think that the Democrats are heading for an unusually bad night. The polls have simply reverted to where you would expect them to be.
    Quite:

    A loss of 1-2 Senate seats and a small beating in the House would be in-line (or slightly better than) what you would expect from the incumbent party at this point in the cycle.

    Clinton lost 8 Senate seats and 54 seats in the House.
    Obama dropped 6 Senate seats and 63 seats in the House.

    I would expect Biden to comfortably outperform that.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 31,978
    edited November 7
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The fact that Tom Cotton is not running for the 2024 GOP nomination suggests that he thinks (1) it's almost certain Trump will run and (2) the results will be very good for the GOP, which will bolster Trump's claims to be the nominee. If the GOP takes GA, AZ and NH, and keeps PA, plus pulls something off like the NY Governorship, Trump will be claiming it's down to him given the candidates there received his endorsements.

    Well, it's highly likely to be a very good night for the GOP and it's highly likely that Trump will run again.

    But I'm not sure that Tom Cotton has any special information here.
    No special information but enough to tell him that it's better to wait on that run. Given a poor GOP result would be likely to damage Trump's reputation, that suggests something.

    However, one piece of good news for Democrats - Ralston predicts Cortez Masto will hold on in NV (although he has hedged his bets):

    https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/crystal-ball-says-cortez-masto-hangs-on-sisolak-doesnt-and-dems-retain-two-of-three-house-seats
    I would be very surprised if Cortez Mastro holds on: I think she is by far the most vulnerable of the Dems, and had her losing by 3-4 points. She's also hampered by the fact that the Republicans have a good Gubernatorial candidate, and Sislak is unpopular.

    FWIW, I think we don't pay enough attention to the Governor races. I think Americans are more likely to trek to the polls to vote for Governor than for Senator.

    A decent Governor (or candidate) makes a massive difference in a Senate race.

    And that boosts Laxalt and Walker, while it hampers Oz. AZ is a harder call: Hobbs is a dreadful candidate for the Dems, but Lake is an incredibly divisive one for the Republicans.

    If we assume the polls are broadly right (which they probably aren't), and that Governorship races matter, that suggests:

    R gain NV
    D gain PA
    R leads in GA (albeit it may well go to run-off)
    and...
    R probably win AZ.

    And, of course, if the Republicans have already gained the Senate, then I would expect Walker to win in a run-off.
    That's pretty much my thinking, too.

    There are exceptions (eg New Hampshire, Oregon) but in general now, people vote pretty much the way for Governors and Senators in the same cycle.
  • jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 249
    Well, well. Jon Ralston* now estimates that CCM will (probably) pull it out in NV. That's s big switch, he's been very strong on the Reps winning there for months.

    *For those who don't know, he's a veteran politics journalist in NV, and very highly regarded. Very experienced at crunching the numbers.

    https://twitter.com/TheNVIndy/status/1589457152715870208?t=sxgStljDGMf0IAnzuBjghw&s=19
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,358

    IanB2 said:

    Bloody dog’s bladder must be going the same way as mine, ringing the bell to go out in the middle of the night.

    When I was in the US just a few weeks back, the Dems seemed to be heading towards good results, on the back of record levels of female voter registrations. If the polls are right, it’s gone bad for them quite quickly.

    I agree, the talk was all about the Roe v Wade abortion ruling mobilising female voters... any idea what has happened to the Dems?
    The Fed continued putting up interest rates aggressively.
    It's defensible as sound monetary policy, even though it looks as though US inflation has peaked, but the timing of the recent rates rises has been dismal for the Democrats midterm prospects.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,358
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    Bloody dog’s bladder must be going the same way as mine, ringing the bell to go out in the middle of the night.

    When I was in the US just a few weeks back, the Dems seemed to be heading towards good results, on the back of record levels of female voter registrations. If the polls are right, it’s gone bad for them quite quickly.

    I don't think that the Democrats are heading for an unusually bad night. The polls have simply reverted to where you would expect them to be.
    Quite:

    A loss of 1-2 Senate seats and a small beating in the House would be in-line (or slightly better than) what you would expect from the incumbent party at this point in the cycle.

    Clinton lost 8 Senate seats and 54 seats in the House.
    Obama dropped 6 Senate seats and 63 seats in the House.

    I would expect Biden to comfortably outperform that.
    I'm clinging to the hope that the polls are, as you've often suggested, out by several %.
    Not put any money on it yet, though.

    I long since closed out my short of Republican control of the Senate (profitably), and I'm half tempted to have another dabble.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660

    Well, well. Jon Ralston* now estimates that CCM will (probably) pull it out in NV. That's s big switch, he's been very strong on the Reps winning there for months.

    *For those who don't know, he's a veteran politics journalist in NV, and very highly regarded. Very experienced at crunching the numbers.

    https://twitter.com/TheNVIndy/status/1589457152715870208?t=sxgStljDGMf0IAnzuBjghw&s=19

    As I posted yesterday there has been a big surge in Postal votes from Registered Dems. I repeteated over the next 2 days it gets the so called "Clark County Firewall" up to 2018 levels which was a 5 point win for the Dems.

    I'm waaaaay less bullish than Ralston is. I think he makes an uncomfortably optimistic assumption about how Washoe will vote. And as a result I still think it is a GOP pickup unless I see better numbers for the Dems.

    ON THE OTHER HAND I have went through as many of the recent polls showing Laxalt ahead as I could and with the exception of the Emerson poll they all have some just pure bullshit in the subsamples. The Emerson poll seems really solid though and is a comfortable Laxalt win. So once again I am going GOP pickup unless there is (non garbo) polling out today that says otherwise.

    Once again, my recommendation is do not bet.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757
    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    Bloody dog’s bladder must be going the same way as mine, ringing the bell to go out in the middle of the night.

    When I was in the US just a few weeks back, the Dems seemed to be heading towards good results, on the back of record levels of female voter registrations. If the polls are right, it’s gone bad for them quite quickly.

    I agree, the talk was all about the Roe v Wade abortion ruling mobilising female voters... any idea what has happened to the Dems?
    Dobbs does not outweigh the current economic situation.
    The economic situation for the USA is pretty good I think with their home grown energy?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The fact that Tom Cotton is not running for the 2024 GOP nomination suggests that he thinks (1) it's almost certain Trump will run and (2) the results will be very good for the GOP, which will bolster Trump's claims to be the nominee. If the GOP takes GA, AZ and NH, and keeps PA, plus pulls something off like the NY Governorship, Trump will be claiming it's down to him given the candidates there received his endorsements.

    Well, it's highly likely to be a very good night for the GOP and it's highly likely that Trump will run again.

    But I'm not sure that Tom Cotton has any special information here.
    No special information but enough to tell him that it's better to wait on that run. Given a poor GOP result would be likely to damage Trump's reputation, that suggests something.

    However, one piece of good news for Democrats - Ralston predicts Cortez Masto will hold on in NV (although he has hedged his bets):

    https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/crystal-ball-says-cortez-masto-hangs-on-sisolak-doesnt-and-dems-retain-two-of-three-house-seats
    I would be very surprised if Cortez Mastro holds on: I think she is by far the most vulnerable of the Dems, and had her losing by 3-4 points. She's also hampered by the fact that the Republicans have a good Gubernatorial candidate, and Sislak is unpopular.

    FWIW, I think we don't pay enough attention to the Governor races. I think Americans are more likely to trek to the polls to vote for Governor than for Senator.

    A decent Governor (or candidate) makes a massive difference in a Senate race.

    And that boosts Laxalt and Walker, while it hampers Oz. AZ is a harder call: Hobbs is a dreadful candidate for the Dems, but Lake is an incredibly divisive one for the Republicans.

    If we assume the polls are broadly right (which they probably aren't), and that Governorship races matter, that suggests:

    R gain NV
    D gain PA
    R leads in GA (albeit it may well go to run-off)
    and...
    R probably win AZ.

    And, of course, if the Republicans have already gained the Senate, then I would expect Walker to win in a run-off.
    I always get the impression Ralston would prefer a Democrat win but he's honest enough to call it when he thinks the GOP will make it
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    edited November 7
    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    Bloody dog’s bladder must be going the same way as mine, ringing the bell to go out in the middle of the night.

    When I was in the US just a few weeks back, the Dems seemed to be heading towards good results, on the back of record levels of female voter registrations. If the polls are right, it’s gone bad for them quite quickly.

    I agree, the talk was all about the Roe v Wade abortion ruling mobilising female voters... any idea what has happened to the Dems?
    Dobbs does not outweigh the current economic situation.
    The economic situation for the USA is pretty good I think with their home grown energy?
    Inflation and petrol prices is a pocketbook issue that hits people obviously and directly even if the macro is ok.

    Compared to the rest of the world they are doing good but compared to last year things are rough.

    EDIT: I mean, Biden's job numbers are absolutely incredible but that doesn't help people who already have a job pay for gas that is 40% higher than when Biden took over.
  • jamesdoylejamesdoyle Posts: 249
    Alistair said:

    Well, well. Jon Ralston* now estimates that CCM will (probably) pull it out in NV. That's s big switch, he's been very strong on the Reps winning there for months.

    *For those who don't know, he's a veteran politics journalist in NV, and very highly regarded. Very experienced at crunching the numbers.

    https://twitter.com/TheNVIndy/status/1589457152715870208?t=sxgStljDGMf0IAnzuBjghw&s=19

    As I posted yesterday there has been a big surge in Postal votes from Registered Dems. I repeteated over the next 2 days it gets the so called "Clark County Firewall" up to 2018 levels which was a 5 point win for the Dems.

    I'm waaaaay less bullish than Ralston is. I think he makes an uncomfortably optimistic assumption about how Washoe will vote. And as a result I still think it is a GOP pickup unless I see better numbers for the Dems.

    ON THE OTHER HAND I have went through as many of the recent polls showing Laxalt ahead as I could and with the exception of the Emerson poll they all have some just pure bullshit in the subsamples. The Emerson poll seems really solid though and is a comfortable Laxalt win. So once again I am going GOP pickup unless there is (non garbo) polling out today that says otherwise.

    Once again, my recommendation is do not bet.
    I'm here for the politics, not the betting! But I'd agree NV is not a good betting opportunity.

    Two comments on yours: Emerson have had a real Rep lean this time out, and have largely been quite a way from the polling pack (not necessarily a bad thing). There has been some talk, from Emerson as well, that they may have overcompensated for last time.
    Ralston has been consistently saying that Laxalt would win in NV - IIRC, he said from the moment Laxalt was nominated that it would be an R gain. He's changed his mind based on what's happened with the early voting, which he has an excellent record on. Still so close a tiny shift could swing it either way though, but hopeful.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,757
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    Bloody dog’s bladder must be going the same way as mine, ringing the bell to go out in the middle of the night.

    When I was in the US just a few weeks back, the Dems seemed to be heading towards good results, on the back of record levels of female voter registrations. If the polls are right, it’s gone bad for them quite quickly.

    I agree, the talk was all about the Roe v Wade abortion ruling mobilising female voters... any idea what has happened to the Dems?
    Dobbs does not outweigh the current economic situation.
    The economic situation for the USA is pretty good I think with their home grown energy?
    Inflation and petrol prices is a pocketbook issue that hits people obviously and directly even if the macro is ok.

    Compared to the rest of the world they are doing good but compared to last year things are rough.

    EDIT: I mean, Biden's job numbers are absolutely incredible but that doesn't help people who already have a job pay for gas that is 40% higher than when Biden took over.
    Yeah and with their mortgage structure the average person is shielded from Jay Powell's bullets.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,551
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    Bloody dog’s bladder must be going the same way as mine, ringing the bell to go out in the middle of the night.

    When I was in the US just a few weeks back, the Dems seemed to be heading towards good results, on the back of record levels of female voter registrations. If the polls are right, it’s gone bad for them quite quickly.

    I don't think that the Democrats are heading for an unusually bad night. The polls have simply reverted to where you would expect them to be.
    Quite:

    A loss of 1-2 Senate seats and a small beating in the House would be in-line (or slightly better than) what you would expect from the incumbent party at this point in the cycle.

    Clinton lost 8 Senate seats and 54 seats in the House.
    Obama dropped 6 Senate seats and 63 seats in the House.

    I would expect Biden to comfortably outperform that.
    This is true and yet this is the most favourable of the three Senate cycles for the Dems. If they lose ground this time they will likely have lost control of the Senate for six years.

    Also, US politics is in an unusual state. If the Dems cannot achieve unusually robust results after Jan 6th and Dobbs, against an unrepentant GOP, then they are in big trouble. They will have essentially lost the political argument that respect for the democratic process matters, and shown themselves unable to mobilize voters.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,358
    This is an interesting metric regarding whether or not he gets the nomination.
    Though his toxic legacy will live on, irrespective.

    Record number of Republicans support party over Trump: NBC poll
    https://thehill.com/homenews/3722608-record-number-of-republicans-support-party-over-trump-nbc-poll/

    And this...

    GOP megadonor: I’m ready to back DeSantis for president in ’24
    Billionaire CEO Ken Griffin is a bit tired of Donald Trump. "For a litany of reasons, I think it’s time to move on to the next generation,” he said in an interview.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/06/gop-megadonor-desantis-24-ken-griffin-00065274
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660

    Alistair said:

    Well, well. Jon Ralston* now estimates that CCM will (probably) pull it out in NV. That's s big switch, he's been very strong on the Reps winning there for months.

    *For those who don't know, he's a veteran politics journalist in NV, and very highly regarded. Very experienced at crunching the numbers.

    https://twitter.com/TheNVIndy/status/1589457152715870208?t=sxgStljDGMf0IAnzuBjghw&s=19

    As I posted yesterday there has been a big surge in Postal votes from Registered Dems. I repeteated over the next 2 days it gets the so called "Clark County Firewall" up to 2018 levels which was a 5 point win for the Dems.

    I'm waaaaay less bullish than Ralston is. I think he makes an uncomfortably optimistic assumption about how Washoe will vote. And as a result I still think it is a GOP pickup unless I see better numbers for the Dems.

    ON THE OTHER HAND I have went through as many of the recent polls showing Laxalt ahead as I could and with the exception of the Emerson poll they all have some just pure bullshit in the subsamples. The Emerson poll seems really solid though and is a comfortable Laxalt win. So once again I am going GOP pickup unless there is (non garbo) polling out today that says otherwise.

    Once again, my recommendation is do not bet.
    I'm here for the politics, not the betting! But I'd agree NV is not a good betting opportunity.

    Two comments on yours: Emerson have had a real Rep lean this time out, and have largely been quite a way from the polling pack (not necessarily a bad thing). There has been some talk, from Emerson as well, that they may have overcompensated for last time.
    Ralston has been consistently saying that Laxalt would win in NV - IIRC, he said from the moment Laxalt was nominated that it would be an R gain. He's changed his mind based on what's happened with the early voting, which he has an excellent record on. Still so close a tiny shift could swing it either way though, but hopeful.
    Ralston is the man and I would hope his reputation on here is now rock solid after 2 election cycles of GOP booster posters trying to trash him.

    That said his article is still heavily caveated and on my part the Dem voter registration numbers look weak.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The fact that Tom Cotton is not running for the 2024 GOP nomination suggests that he thinks (1) it's almost certain Trump will run and (2) the results will be very good for the GOP, which will bolster Trump's claims to be the nominee. If the GOP takes GA, AZ and NH, and keeps PA, plus pulls something off like the NY Governorship, Trump will be claiming it's down to him given the candidates there received his endorsements.

    Well, it's highly likely to be a very good night for the GOP and it's highly likely that Trump will run again.

    But I'm not sure that Tom Cotton has any special information here.
    No special information but enough to tell him that it's better to wait on that run. Given a poor GOP result would be likely to damage Trump's reputation, that suggests something.

    However, one piece of good news for Democrats - Ralston predicts Cortez Masto will hold on in NV (although he has hedged his bets):

    https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/crystal-ball-says-cortez-masto-hangs-on-sisolak-doesnt-and-dems-retain-two-of-three-house-seats
    I would be very surprised if Cortez Mastro holds on: I think she is by far the most vulnerable of the Dems, and had her losing by 3-4 points. She's also hampered by the fact that the Republicans have a good Gubernatorial candidate, and Sislak is unpopular.

    FWIW, I think we don't pay enough attention to the Governor races. I think Americans are more likely to trek to the polls to vote for Governor than for Senator.

    A decent Governor (or candidate) makes a massive difference in a Senate race.

    And that boosts Laxalt and Walker, while it hampers Oz. AZ is a harder call: Hobbs is a dreadful candidate for the Dems, but Lake is an incredibly divisive one for the Republicans.

    If we assume the polls are broadly right (which they probably aren't), and that Governorship races matter, that suggests:

    R gain NV
    D gain PA
    R leads in GA (albeit it may well go to run-off)
    and...
    R probably win AZ.

    And, of course, if the Republicans have already gained the Senate, then I would expect Walker to win in a run-off.
    I always get the impression Ralston would prefer a Democrat win but he's honest enough to call it when he thinks the GOP will make it
    I always got the impression that Ralston was a massive partisan Dem. But they like being right more than being a cheerleader.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,482

    It's only a platform if Trump isn't in jail....

    Speed things move at there isn't time for that.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,421
    rcs1000 said:

    The fact that Tom Cotton is not running for the 2024 GOP nomination suggests that he thinks (1) it's almost certain Trump will run and (2) the results will be very good for the GOP, which will bolster Trump's claims to be the nominee. If the GOP takes GA, AZ and NH, and keeps PA, plus pulls something off like the NY Governorship, Trump will be claiming it's down to him given the candidates there received his endorsements.

    Well, it's highly likely to be a very good night for the GOP and it's highly likely that Trump will run again.

    But I'm not sure that Tom Cotton has any special information here.
    But wasn’t he a star* the last time round?

    * well an asterisk anyway, but that’s close enough for government work
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,553
    I think the problem in these elections is ticket splitting . This is much less likely away from the ne states and having governorships up for election will often help the downballot races .

    In terms of the polling it’s been all over the place because of GOP biased outfits dropping lots of polls and trying to show momentum for their side .

    The non- partisan polling shows a much closer picture . Another thing to bear in mind there are quite a few house seats which are not being contested by the Dems . This means the generic ballot polling could be over estimating GOP gains .

    Of the 17 uncontested seats only 3 are Dem incumbents .

    Then there’s also seats where it’s a third party candidate only in opposition .

    That breaks 10 to 3 in the GOPs favour .

    The Dems could keep the house with as little as a 1.5% lead nationally .

    Even allowing for all these caveats the GOP should still take the house but a lot of the races could be close .
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,421
    Chris said:

    Remarkable that Sunak is now trying to portray himself as the leader of the COP27 summit.

    It seems his diplomatic judgment is no better than his domestic political judgment.

    Chinas not there, Biden has scaled back his entourage, India’s in no mood to compromise. It’s not actually going to decide anything meaningful
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,758
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The fact that Tom Cotton is not running for the 2024 GOP nomination suggests that he thinks (1) it's almost certain Trump will run and (2) the results will be very good for the GOP, which will bolster Trump's claims to be the nominee. If the GOP takes GA, AZ and NH, and keeps PA, plus pulls something off like the NY Governorship, Trump will be claiming it's down to him given the candidates there received his endorsements.

    Well, it's highly likely to be a very good night for the GOP and it's highly likely that Trump will run again.

    But I'm not sure that Tom Cotton has any special information here.
    No special information but enough to tell him that it's better to wait on that run. Given a poor GOP result would be likely to damage Trump's reputation, that suggests something.

    However, one piece of good news for Democrats - Ralston predicts Cortez Masto will hold on in NV (although he has hedged his bets):

    https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/crystal-ball-says-cortez-masto-hangs-on-sisolak-doesnt-and-dems-retain-two-of-three-house-seats
    I would be very surprised if Cortez Mastro holds on: I think she is by far the most vulnerable of the Dems, and had her losing by 3-4 points. She's also hampered by the fact that the Republicans have a good Gubernatorial candidate, and Sislak is unpopular.

    FWIW, I think we don't pay enough attention to the Governor races. I think Americans are more likely to trek to the polls to vote for Governor than for Senator.

    A decent Governor (or candidate) makes a massive difference in a Senate race.

    And that boosts Laxalt and Walker, while it hampers Oz. AZ is a harder call: Hobbs is a dreadful candidate for the Dems, but Lake is an incredibly divisive one for the Republicans.

    If we assume the polls are broadly right (which they probably aren't), and that Governorship races matter, that suggests:

    R gain NV
    D gain PA
    R leads in GA (albeit it may well go to run-off)
    and...
    R probably win AZ.

    And, of course, if the Republicans have already gained the Senate, then I would expect Walker to win in a run-off.
    I always get the impression Ralston would prefer a Democrat win but he's honest enough to call it when he thinks the GOP will make it
    I always got the impression that Ralston was a massive partisan Dem. But they like being right more than being a cheerleader.
    ...and Ralston does have a fantastic record of being right about Nevada elections.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,758

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    Bloody dog’s bladder must be going the same way as mine, ringing the bell to go out in the middle of the night.

    When I was in the US just a few weeks back, the Dems seemed to be heading towards good results, on the back of record levels of female voter registrations. If the polls are right, it’s gone bad for them quite quickly.

    I don't think that the Democrats are heading for an unusually bad night. The polls have simply reverted to where you would expect them to be.
    Quite:

    A loss of 1-2 Senate seats and a small beating in the House would be in-line (or slightly better than) what you would expect from the incumbent party at this point in the cycle.

    Clinton lost 8 Senate seats and 54 seats in the House.
    Obama dropped 6 Senate seats and 63 seats in the House.

    I would expect Biden to comfortably outperform that.
    This is true and yet this is the most favourable of the three Senate cycles for the Dems. If they lose ground this time they will likely have lost control of the Senate for six years.

    Also, US politics is in an unusual state. If the Dems cannot achieve unusually robust results after Jan 6th and Dobbs, against an unrepentant GOP, then they are in big trouble. They will have essentially lost the political argument that respect for the democratic process matters, and shown themselves unable to mobilize voters.
    On the other hand massive mid term swings and cohabitation for 2 years seem to be the norm in American politics, so if the Republicans only manage a modest one might that point to another comfortable Biden win in 2024?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,421
    Nigelb said:

    This is an interesting metric regarding whether or not he gets the nomination.
    Though his toxic legacy will live on, irrespective.

    Record number of Republicans support party over Trump: NBC poll
    https://thehill.com/homenews/3722608-record-number-of-republicans-support-party-over-trump-nbc-poll/

    And this...

    GOP megadonor: I’m ready to back DeSantis for president in ’24
    Billionaire CEO Ken Griffin is a bit tired of Donald Trump. "For a litany of reasons, I think it’s time to move on to the next generation,” he said in an interview.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/06/gop-megadonor-desantis-24-ken-griffin-00065274

    I’m not so sure - I think “toxic legacies” can purge themselves pretty quickly once the protagonist is no longer a player

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,250

    I’m not so sure - I think “toxic legacies” can purge themselves pretty quickly once the protagonist is no longer a player

    Tony Blair says hi
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 2,928
    boulay said:

    I had the joy of listening to Chris Mason and Nick Robinson this morning interviewing each other about Sunak and Cop27, after a couple of minutes on Cop27 and policies they proceeded to focus on Boris going to Cop.

    The childish glee as they talked about how Sunak only went when Boris said he was going and “is Boris a backseat driver.” With Morris saying he will be finding Boris to ask him about it etc.

    It made me so angry as it summed up a part of the problem with Politics in this country where it was a perfect example of journalists more interested in the games and trying to get “angles” and bitchy showbiz as politics news.

    Maybe just dig into the sodding policies and ideas and stop the excited gossip games.




    The headline news all day yesterday on the BBC was man in a mood sends grumpy texts.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,250

    The headline news all day yesterday on the BBC was man in a mood sends grumpy texts.

    Yesterday Oliver Dowden explained away Gavin Williamson’s abusive, threatening texts as ‘sent in heat of moment’

    Now Grant Shapps says they were sent in a ‘moment of frustration’

    They weren’t. They were sent over a five week period from 13 September to 17 October

    #skynews

    https://twitter.com/paul__johnson/status/1589536901396320261
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,250
    Exclusive with @Gabriel_Pogrund

    Minister claims Gavin Williamson raised details about her private life in bid to silence her when she was on backbenches

    She contacted CCHQ over weekend

    Allies of Williamson says he raised matter in pastoral capacity

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/9333dafe-5e0d-11ed-8929-890946367602?shareToken=8c6317d7a7093d150f296d217c86b53e


  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,421
    Scott_xP said:

    I’m not so sure - I think “toxic legacies” can purge themselves pretty quickly once the protagonist is no longer a player

    Tony Blair says hi
    Labour’s doing ok in the polls despite that
  • boulay said:

    I had the joy of listening to Chris Mason and Nick Robinson this morning interviewing each other about Sunak and Cop27, after a couple of minutes on Cop27 and policies they proceeded to focus on Boris going to Cop.

    The childish glee as they talked about how Sunak only went when Boris said he was going and “is Boris a backseat driver.” With Morris saying he will be finding Boris to ask him about it etc.

    It made me so angry as it summed up a part of the problem with Politics in this country where it was a perfect example of journalists more interested in the games and trying to get “angles” and bitchy showbiz as politics news.

    Maybe just dig into the sodding policies and ideas and stop the excited gossip games.




    Good morning

    The media are not fit for purpose especially at time when balanced informative information is essential rather than the tittle tattle and gotcha moments

    There is nothing more ridiculous than journalists shouting across the street at politicians, or worse hounding them coming out of their own front door

    On climate change change the IMF have just announced at COP27 their concerns at the increasing use of coal and that inflation will be hard to reduce

    I notice that while labour are calling for a GE apparently and understandably, they do not want one yet and are desperately hoping the conservatives can mitigate some of the economic damage caused by covid, war and the ill fated 6 weeks of the hapless Truss administration

    As things are at the moment I expect Starmer will be the next PM but I am far from certain that he or labour are going to find it an enjoyable proposition as I expect that governments across Europe and beyond are going to struggle for years to come, sadly


  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,551
    TimS said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    Bloody dog’s bladder must be going the same way as mine, ringing the bell to go out in the middle of the night.

    When I was in the US just a few weeks back, the Dems seemed to be heading towards good results, on the back of record levels of female voter registrations. If the polls are right, it’s gone bad for them quite quickly.

    I don't think that the Democrats are heading for an unusually bad night. The polls have simply reverted to where you would expect them to be.
    Quite:

    A loss of 1-2 Senate seats and a small beating in the House would be in-line (or slightly better than) what you would expect from the incumbent party at this point in the cycle.

    Clinton lost 8 Senate seats and 54 seats in the House.
    Obama dropped 6 Senate seats and 63 seats in the House.

    I would expect Biden to comfortably outperform that.
    This is true and yet this is the most favourable of the three Senate cycles for the Dems. If they lose ground this time they will likely have lost control of the Senate for six years.

    Also, US politics is in an unusual state. If the Dems cannot achieve unusually robust results after Jan 6th and Dobbs, against an unrepentant GOP, then they are in big trouble. They will have essentially lost the political argument that respect for the democratic process matters, and shown themselves unable to mobilize voters.
    On the other hand massive mid term swings and cohabitation for 2 years seem to be the norm in American politics, so if the Republicans only manage a modest one might that point to another comfortable Biden win in 2024?
    The Presidency is not the only thing that matters in US politics, and if enough election stealers are elected in enough places then the vote in 2024 no longer matters. Trump will be installed President regardless.
  • Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    Bloody dog’s bladder must be going the same way as mine, ringing the bell to go out in the middle of the night.

    When I was in the US just a few weeks back, the Dems seemed to be heading towards good results, on the back of record levels of female voter registrations. If the polls are right, it’s gone bad for them quite quickly.

    I agree, the talk was all about the Roe v Wade abortion ruling mobilising female voters... any idea what has happened to the Dems?
    Dobbs does not outweigh the current economic situation.
    A lesson for the Tories here, who think "wokeness" outweighs the economy?
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 350
    Is it only me who thinks Desantis would be more of a disaster for America and the world than Trump? Trump was worryingly erratic and his rhetoric could be dangerous but at heart he was Democrat who was too disorganised to properly mount a coup or even get Obamacare repealed. Desantis has all of the dangerous MAGA beliefs with the additional worries that he actually believes them and is smart enough to carry them out.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 10,551
    Stereodog said:

    Is it only me who thinks Desantis would be more of a disaster for America and the world than Trump? Trump was worryingly erratic and his rhetoric could be dangerous but at heart he was Democrat who was too disorganised to properly mount a coup or even get Obamacare repealed. Desantis has all of the dangerous MAGA beliefs with the additional worries that he actually believes them and is smart enough to carry them out.

    Maybe, but this is a bit like arguing over which combination of arm and leg you'd rather have amputated. You can make a case for one side over the other, but the difference isn't that consequential compared to the effect of amputating either.

    Either of them is beyond the event horizon.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,301

    Alistair said:

    Well, well. Jon Ralston* now estimates that CCM will (probably) pull it out in NV. That's s big switch, he's been very strong on the Reps winning there for months.

    *For those who don't know, he's a veteran politics journalist in NV, and very highly regarded. Very experienced at crunching the numbers.

    https://twitter.com/TheNVIndy/status/1589457152715870208?t=sxgStljDGMf0IAnzuBjghw&s=19

    As I posted yesterday there has been a big surge in Postal votes from Registered Dems. I repeteated over the next 2 days it gets the so called "Clark County Firewall" up to 2018 levels which was a 5 point win for the Dems.

    I'm waaaaay less bullish than Ralston is. I think he makes an uncomfortably optimistic assumption about how Washoe will vote. And as a result I still think it is a GOP pickup unless I see better numbers for the Dems.

    ON THE OTHER HAND I have went through as many of the recent polls showing Laxalt ahead as I could and with the exception of the Emerson poll they all have some just pure bullshit in the subsamples. The Emerson poll seems really solid though and is a comfortable Laxalt win. So once again I am going GOP pickup unless there is (non garbo) polling out today that says otherwise.

    Once again, my recommendation is do not bet.
    I'm here for the politics, not the betting! But I'd agree NV is not a good betting opportunity.

    Two comments on yours: Emerson have had a real Rep lean this time out, and have largely been quite a way from the polling pack (not necessarily a bad thing). There has been some talk, from Emerson as well, that they may have overcompensated for last time.
    Ralston has been consistently saying that Laxalt would win in NV - IIRC, he said from the moment Laxalt was nominated that it would be an R gain. He's changed his mind based on what's happened with the early voting, which he has an excellent record on. Still so close a tiny shift could swing it either way though, but hopeful.
    Large increases in early voting and young voter engagement are the main hope for Dems.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,358

    Nigelb said:

    This is an interesting metric regarding whether or not he gets the nomination.
    Though his toxic legacy will live on, irrespective.

    Record number of Republicans support party over Trump: NBC poll
    https://thehill.com/homenews/3722608-record-number-of-republicans-support-party-over-trump-nbc-poll/

    And this...

    GOP megadonor: I’m ready to back DeSantis for president in ’24
    Billionaire CEO Ken Griffin is a bit tired of Donald Trump. "For a litany of reasons, I think it’s time to move on to the next generation,” he said in an interview.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/06/gop-megadonor-desantis-24-ken-griffin-00065274

    I’m not so sure - I think “toxic legacies” can purge themselves pretty quickly once the protagonist is no longer a player

    He has gifted a large number of other toxic protagonists to the party, and fundamentally changed a large part of the activist base, so any such 'purge' is unlikely to be a rapid process.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,697

    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    Bloody dog’s bladder must be going the same way as mine, ringing the bell to go out in the middle of the night.

    When I was in the US just a few weeks back, the Dems seemed to be heading towards good results, on the back of record levels of female voter registrations. If the polls are right, it’s gone bad for them quite quickly.

    I agree, the talk was all about the Roe v Wade abortion ruling mobilising female voters... any idea what has happened to the Dems?
    Dobbs does not outweigh the current economic situation.
    A lesson for the Tories here, who think "wokeness" outweighs the economy?
    No-one on the Tory side thinks that. We think Labour activists think that, and therefore it's good tactics to get them talking about it, so voters think Labour think " "wokeness" outweighs the economy".
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,421
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    This is an interesting metric regarding whether or not he gets the nomination.
    Though his toxic legacy will live on, irrespective.

    Record number of Republicans support party over Trump: NBC poll
    https://thehill.com/homenews/3722608-record-number-of-republicans-support-party-over-trump-nbc-poll/

    And this...

    GOP megadonor: I’m ready to back DeSantis for president in ’24
    Billionaire CEO Ken Griffin is a bit tired of Donald Trump. "For a litany of reasons, I think it’s time to move on to the next generation,” he said in an interview.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/06/gop-megadonor-desantis-24-ken-griffin-00065274

    I’m not so sure - I think “toxic legacies” can purge themselves pretty quickly once the protagonist is no longer a player

    He has gifted a large number of other toxic protagonists to the party, and fundamentally changed a large part of the activist base, so any such 'purge' is unlikely to be a rapid process.
    They said that about Corbyn too. Depends who the successor is

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,358
    boulay said:

    I had the joy of listening to Chris Mason and Nick Robinson this morning interviewing each other about Sunak and Cop27, after a couple of minutes on Cop27 and policies they proceeded to focus on Boris going to Cop.

    The childish glee as they talked about how Sunak only went when Boris said he was going and “is Boris a backseat driver.” With Morris saying he will be finding Boris to ask him about it etc.

    It made me so angry as it summed up a part of the problem with Politics in this country where it was a perfect example of journalists more interested in the games and trying to get “angles” and bitchy showbiz as politics news.

    Maybe just dig into the sodding policies and ideas and stop the excited gossip games.

    No one knows how serious Sunak is about climate policy, which was the underlying point of the exchange.

    I find your irritation overdone, FWIW.
    Both Robinson and Mason are pretty good at their jobs.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,358
    Nigelb said:

    This is an interesting metric regarding whether or not he gets the nomination.
    Though his toxic legacy will live on, irrespective.

    Record number of Republicans support party over Trump: NBC poll
    https://thehill.com/homenews/3722608-record-number-of-republicans-support-party-over-trump-nbc-poll/

    And this...

    GOP megadonor: I’m ready to back DeSantis for president in ’24
    Billionaire CEO Ken Griffin is a bit tired of Donald Trump. "For a litany of reasons, I think it’s time to move on to the next generation,” he said in an interview.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/06/gop-megadonor-desantis-24-ken-griffin-00065274

    On that note, you can currently lay Trump for the nomination below evens. I think that's decent value, given the several ways in which he might not end up with the nomination.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,358
    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    Bloody dog’s bladder must be going the same way as mine, ringing the bell to go out in the middle of the night.

    When I was in the US just a few weeks back, the Dems seemed to be heading towards good results, on the back of record levels of female voter registrations. If the polls are right, it’s gone bad for them quite quickly.

    I agree, the talk was all about the Roe v Wade abortion ruling mobilising female voters... any idea what has happened to the Dems?
    Dobbs does not outweigh the current economic situation.
    It does if you think the current economic situation - in the US - isn't that bad at all.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,553
    The Dobbs decision shouldn’t be discounted .

    The true impact of this will only be known on election night . There’s currently a large gender gap in much of the polling and the key result from the exit polls will be the gender make up of the electorate.

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    I am absolutely fascinated by the Indiana Senate race.

    There's only been 2 polls done, about 2 and 3 months ago now and one of those by the Dem candidate.

    The polls had it as a 2 or 3 point GOP lead in a state won by Trump by 17 points in 2020 and by the GOP Senator up for re-election by 10 points in 2016.

    It seems insane that no one has sprung for another poll.
  • StereodogStereodog Posts: 350

    Stereodog said:

    Is it only me who thinks Desantis would be more of a disaster for America and the world than Trump? Trump was worryingly erratic and his rhetoric could be dangerous but at heart he was Democrat who was too disorganised to properly mount a coup or even get Obamacare repealed. Desantis has all of the dangerous MAGA beliefs with the additional worries that he actually believes them and is smart enough to carry them out.

    Maybe, but this is a bit like arguing over which combination of arm and leg you'd rather have amputated. You can make a case for one side over the other, but the difference isn't that consequential compared to the effect of amputating either.

    Either of them is beyond the event horizon.
    I’d characterise it more as trying to work out whether both methods of amputation will kill the patient through shock or whether one might be survivable.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,421
    Nigelb said:

    boulay said:

    I had the joy of listening to Chris Mason and Nick Robinson this morning interviewing each other about Sunak and Cop27, after a couple of minutes on Cop27 and policies they proceeded to focus on Boris going to Cop.

    The childish glee as they talked about how Sunak only went when Boris said he was going and “is Boris a backseat driver.” With Morris saying he will be finding Boris to ask him about it etc.

    It made me so angry as it summed up a part of the problem with Politics in this country where it was a perfect example of journalists more interested in the games and trying to get “angles” and bitchy showbiz as politics news.

    Maybe just dig into the sodding policies and ideas and stop the excited gossip games.

    No one knows how serious Sunak is about climate policy, which was the underlying point of the exchange.

    I find your irritation overdone, FWIW.
    Both Robinson and Mason are pretty good
    at their jobs.
    The general theme of the media being too interested in process stories is right thought.

    The Williamson texts are a point in case. They were pathetic and childish. Say nothing good about the man. But they weren’t “bullying and harassment”, don’t need an “investigation” and don’t say anything about Sunak’s judgement on appointing Williamson (independent of whether you think it’s a good appointment or not).

    It’s a bit of blue on blue which the media is focusing on when there are things that actually matter going on.

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    Incidentally, Biden's data team and strategist are not a bunch of idiots like Hilary's were. Looking at where Biden is visiting suggests they think it is going to be a bad, bad night for the Dems.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,553
    Nigelb said:

    Sean_F said:

    IanB2 said:

    Bloody dog’s bladder must be going the same way as mine, ringing the bell to go out in the middle of the night.

    When I was in the US just a few weeks back, the Dems seemed to be heading towards good results, on the back of record levels of female voter registrations. If the polls are right, it’s gone bad for them quite quickly.

    I agree, the talk was all about the Roe v Wade abortion ruling mobilising female voters... any idea what has happened to the Dems?
    Dobbs does not outweigh the current economic situation.
    It does if you think the current economic situation - in the US - isn't that bad at all.
    The US media seem determined to stick with the narrative that only the economy matters. It might be difficult for people in the UK to understand why abortion might play such a huge issue as we don’t have this debate here.

    Some women’s red line will be abortion regardless of the economic situation.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,421
    I see that Stop Oil have closed the M25 by scaling gantries.

    Assuming they are of sound mind, why do we close the motorway? We don’t close it if there is someone on a bridge.

    If they fall off, that’s at their own risk, and we deal with it then. If they drop something off we prosecute them. There’s not a meaningful risk to the drivers of cars.

  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,553
    Alistair said:

    Incidentally, Biden's data team and strategist are not a bunch of idiots like Hilary's were. Looking at where Biden is visiting suggests they think it is going to be a bad, bad night for the Dems.

    I think we’ll know early as to whether it’s going to be a very bad night for the Dems .

    All eyes on NH . If Hassan holds on that would be a boost for the Dems .
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,712
    Sunak is not up to the job of PM.

    Braverman
    Williamson
    COP
    Various other U-turns

    All point in the same direction.

    Hunt appears to be the nearest there is to a grown up left in the parliamentary Conservative Party.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 10,683

    Sunak is not up to the job of PM.

    Braverman
    Williamson
    COP
    Various other U-turns

    All point in the same direction.

    Hunt appears to be the nearest there is to a grown up left in the parliamentary Conservative Party.

    Possibly, but I think at the moment the media have the scent of blood and are desperate for more drama. Hence the overblown rubbish about Williamson being a dick on Whatsapp. I'd suggest the political reporters be careful what they wish for - open up the private comms route in politics and their own grubby links will get exposed too.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,890

    Nigelb said:

    boulay said:

    I had the joy of listening to Chris Mason and Nick Robinson this morning interviewing each other about Sunak and Cop27, after a couple of minutes on Cop27 and policies they proceeded to focus on Boris going to Cop.

    The childish glee as they talked about how Sunak only went when Boris said he was going and “is Boris a backseat driver.” With Morris saying he will be finding Boris to ask him about it etc.

    It made me so angry as it summed up a part of the problem with Politics in this country where it was a perfect example of journalists more interested in the games and trying to get “angles” and bitchy showbiz as politics news.

    Maybe just dig into the sodding policies and ideas and stop the excited gossip games.

    No one knows how serious Sunak is about climate policy, which was the underlying point of the exchange.

    I find your irritation overdone, FWIW.
    Both Robinson and Mason are pretty good
    at their jobs.
    The general theme of the media being too interested in process stories is right thought.

    The Williamson texts are a point in case. They were pathetic and childish. Say nothing good about the man. But they weren’t “bullying and harassment”, don’t need an “investigation” and don’t say anything about Sunak’s judgement on appointing Williamson (independent of whether you think it’s a good appointment or not).

    It’s a bit of blue on blue which the media is focusing on when there are things that actually matter going on.

    Maybe not - but in that case it could scarcely have been handled worse by the government in PR terms.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,698

    I see that Stop Oil have closed the M25 by scaling gantries.

    Assuming they are of sound mind, why do we close the motorway? We don’t close it if there is someone on a bridge.

    If they fall off, that’s at their own risk, and we deal with it then. If they drop something off we prosecute them. There’s not a meaningful risk to the drivers of cars.

    I'm not sure you'd survive a 70kg body falling through your windscreen at 80mph.

    Source: Wrote a minibus off hitting a deer near Ullapool.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660
    nico679 said:

    Alistair said:

    Incidentally, Biden's data team and strategist are not a bunch of idiots like Hilary's were. Looking at where Biden is visiting suggests they think it is going to be a bad, bad night for the Dems.

    I think we’ll know early as to whether it’s going to be a very bad night for the Dems .

    All eyes on NH . If Hassan holds on that would be a boost for the Dems .
    If Hassan goes down then it is a disastrous night for the Dems.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,421
    Eabhal said:

    I see that Stop Oil have closed the M25 by scaling gantries.

    Assuming they are of sound mind, why do we close the motorway? We don’t close it if there is someone on a bridge.

    If they fall off, that’s at their own risk, and we deal with it then. If they drop something off we prosecute them. There’s not a meaningful risk to the drivers of cars.

    I'm not sure you'd survive a 70kg body falling through your windscreen at 80mph.

    Source: Wrote a minibus off hitting a deer near Ullapool.
    Likely not but there’s a minimal probability of that happening
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,616

    Sunak is not up to the job of PM.

    Braverman
    Williamson
    COP
    Various other U-turns

    All point in the same direction.

    Hunt appears to be the nearest there is to a grown up left in the parliamentary Conservative Party.

    Reminds me of the England Test Cricket team at its worst. No one seems able to get in and score a few runs. Sunak is flailing his bat around. If we get a wicket to end the Sunak/Hunt partnership then the full collapse is inevitable.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,046

    Sunak is not up to the job of PM.

    Braverman
    Williamson
    COP
    Various other U-turns

    All point in the same direction.

    Hunt appears to be the nearest there is to a grown up left in the parliamentary Conservative Party.

    Possibly, but I think at the moment the media have the scent of blood and are desperate for more drama. Hence the overblown rubbish about Williamson being a dick on Whatsapp. I'd suggest the political reporters be careful what they wish for - open up the private comms route in politics and their own grubby links will get exposed too.
    Nobody votes for journalists to make moral choices, thank goodness.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,301

    Alistair said:

    Well, well. Jon Ralston* now estimates that CCM will (probably) pull it out in NV. That's s big switch, he's been very strong on the Reps winning there for months.

    *For those who don't know, he's a veteran politics journalist in NV, and very highly regarded. Very experienced at crunching the numbers.

    https://twitter.com/TheNVIndy/status/1589457152715870208?t=sxgStljDGMf0IAnzuBjghw&s=19

    As I posted yesterday there has been a big surge in Postal votes from Registered Dems. I repeteated over the next 2 days it gets the so called "Clark County Firewall" up to 2018 levels which was a 5 point win for the Dems.

    I'm waaaaay less bullish than Ralston is. I think he makes an uncomfortably optimistic assumption about how Washoe will vote. And as a result I still think it is a GOP pickup unless I see better numbers for the Dems.

    ON THE OTHER HAND I have went through as many of the recent polls showing Laxalt ahead as I could and with the exception of the Emerson poll they all have some just pure bullshit in the subsamples. The Emerson poll seems really solid though and is a comfortable Laxalt win. So once again I am going GOP pickup unless there is (non garbo) polling out today that says otherwise.

    Once again, my recommendation is do not bet.
    I'm here for the politics, not the betting! But I'd agree NV is not a good betting opportunity.

    Two comments on yours: Emerson have had a real Rep lean this time out, and have largely been quite a way from the polling pack (not necessarily a bad thing). There has been some talk, from Emerson as well, that they may have overcompensated for last time.
    Ralston has been consistently saying that Laxalt would win in NV - IIRC, he said from the moment Laxalt was nominated that it would be an R gain. He's changed his mind based on what's happened with the early voting, which he has an excellent record on. Still so close a tiny shift could swing it either way though, but hopeful.
    Large increases in early voting and young voter engagement are the main hope for Dems.
    Voters in Georgia set record for early voting (Two and a half million)

    Normally around 20% of young people vote in the midterms, will it be 40% this time?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1-34IOpjos0&t=21s
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,046
    In the last two months the anti-wokers, billionaires, and SCOTUS all shut up for a while, and a ton of candidates distanced themselves from Trump, letting them just talk about prices. Smart!
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,421
    edited November 7
    EPG said:

    Sunak is not up to the job of PM.

    Braverman
    Williamson
    COP
    Various other U-turns

    All point in the same direction.

    Hunt appears to be the nearest there is to a grown up left in the parliamentary Conservative Party.

    Possibly, but I think at the moment the media have the scent of blood and are desperate for more drama. Hence the overblown rubbish about Williamson being a dick on Whatsapp. I'd suggest the political reporters be careful what they wish for - open up the private comms route in politics and their own grubby links will get exposed too.
    Nobody votes for journalists to make moral choices, thank goodness.
    You cannot bribe or twist
    Thank God! The British journalist
    But, seeing what the man will do
    Unbribed - there is no reason to!
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 4,562
    edited November 7
    Jonathan said:

    Sunak is not up to the job of PM.

    Braverman
    Williamson
    COP
    Various other U-turns

    All point in the same direction.

    Hunt appears to be the nearest there is to a grown up left in the parliamentary Conservative Party.

    Reminds me of the England Test Cricket team at its worst. No one seems able to get in and score a few runs. Sunak is flailing his bat around. If we get a wicket to end the Sunak/Hunt partnership then the full collapse is inevitable.
    Labour still bowling the odd wide and dropping catches.

    Meanwhile, there's an attention seeking streaker on the pitch, everyone can see it's Johnson.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,421
    Selebian said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sunak is not up to the job of PM.

    Braverman
    Williamson
    COP
    Various other U-turns

    All point in the same direction.

    Hunt appears to be the nearest there is to a grown up left in the parliamentary Conservative Party.

    Reminds me of the England Test Cricket team at its worst. No one seems able to get in and score a few runs. Sunak is flailing his bat around. If we get a wicket to end the Sunak/Hunt partnership then the full collapse is inevitable.
    Labour still bowling the odd wide and dropping catches.

    Meanwhile, there's an attention seeking streaker on the pitch, everyone can see it's Johnson.
    That’s a mental image I could have done without, thank you
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,553
    Alistair said:

    nico679 said:

    Alistair said:

    Incidentally, Biden's data team and strategist are not a bunch of idiots like Hilary's were. Looking at where Biden is visiting suggests they think it is going to be a bad, bad night for the Dems.

    I think we’ll know early as to whether it’s going to be a very bad night for the Dems .

    All eyes on NH . If Hassan holds on that would be a boost for the Dems .
    If Hassan goes down then it is a disastrous night for the Dems.
    The coat tails effect complIcates the picture in NH PA and Georgia.

    In NH the GOP governor Sununu is popular and likely to easily win this could help Bolduc .

    In PA the Dem candidate for governor Shapiro is polling more strongly than Fetterman so that could help him.

    In Georgia Kemp should be re-elected and could help Walker . I can’t see Warnock winning given the need for 50 plus .

    The best the Dems can hope for is to keep Walker below that mark and then it goes to a run-off.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 4,562

    Selebian said:

    Jonathan said:

    Sunak is not up to the job of PM.

    Braverman
    Williamson
    COP
    Various other U-turns

    All point in the same direction.

    Hunt appears to be the nearest there is to a grown up left in the parliamentary Conservative Party.

    Reminds me of the England Test Cricket team at its worst. No one seems able to get in and score a few runs. Sunak is flailing his bat around. If we get a wicket to end the Sunak/Hunt partnership then the full collapse is inevitable.
    Labour still bowling the odd wide and dropping catches.

    Meanwhile, there's an attention seeking streaker on the pitch, everyone can see it's Johnson.
    That’s a mental image I could have done without, thank you
    Hmm, me too, now I actually think about it :open_mouth:

    Apologies all :hushed:
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 516
    Endillion said:

    A lesson for the Tories here, who think "wokeness" outweighs the economy?

    No-one on the Tory side thinks that. We think Labour activists think that, and therefore it's good tactics to get them talking about it, so voters think Labour think " "wokeness" outweighs the economy".
    If that's the strategy, I'm not sure the execution is up to par, because mainly the people I notice banging on about 'woke' are the right...
  • Martin10Martin10 Posts: 142

    Sunak is not up to the job of PM.

    Braverman
    Williamson
    COP
    Various other U-turns

    All point in the same direction.

    Hunt appears to be the nearest there is to a grown up left in the parliamentary Conservative Party.

    Sunak wasnt tested enough hefore becoming pm
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,938
    edited November 7
    pm215 said:

    Endillion said:

    A lesson for the Tories here, who think "wokeness" outweighs the economy?

    No-one on the Tory side thinks that. We think Labour activists think that, and therefore it's good tactics to get them talking about it, so voters think Labour think " "wokeness" outweighs the economy".
    If that's the strategy, I'm not sure the execution is up to par, because mainly the people I notice banging on about 'woke' are the right...
    I think it is a mix of both in a way.

    a) It is only the right that is fixated by woke.
    b) However if the right do bang on about an almost non existent issue the non-political may well think it is an issue and think the left are bonkers for being so woke, when in fact they aren't. It is a common practice for all side to play. Make your opponents seem like ideological nutters.
  • Martin10Martin10 Posts: 142
    Stereodog said:

    Is it only me who thinks Desantis would be more of a disaster for America and the world than Trump? Trump was worryingly erratic and his rhetoric could be dangerous but at heart he was Democrat who was too disorganised to properly mount a coup or even get Obamacare repealed. Desantis has all of the dangerous MAGA beliefs with the additional worries that he actually believes them and is smart enough to carry them out.

    If Trump gets in he will be more ruthless and extreme this time no doubt...the MAGA crowd are much angrier now
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,254
    If the GOP win the House that will obviously be good news for them in terms of getting through more of their agenda and better still if they add the Senate.

    However midterm results are not really an indicator for the next Presidential election. Obama and Bill Clinton both saw the Democrats lose control of the House and the House and Senate respectively in their first midterms in 1994 and 2010 but both were re elected in 1996 and 2012. Reagan saw the GOP lose House seats in 1982 as the Democrats retained control but was re elected in 1984.

    It is true Trump did see the GOP lose the House in 2018 and he lost the Presidential election in 2020. However Carter saw the Democrats hold the House and Senate in 1978 but lost his re election battle in 1978.

    Bush Jnr had the best first midterms for his party of any President in decades in 2002, with the GOP gaining House and Senate seats post 9/11. Yet he was only narrowly re elected in 2004 over Kerry and if Ohio had gone the other way would have lost
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,421
    Martin10 said:

    Stereodog said:

    Is it only me who thinks Desantis would be more of a disaster for America and the world than Trump? Trump was worryingly erratic and his rhetoric could be dangerous but at heart he was Democrat who was too disorganised to properly mount a coup or even get Obamacare repealed. Desantis has all of the dangerous MAGA beliefs with the additional worries that he actually believes them and is smart enough to carry them out.

    If Trump gets in he will be more ruthless and extreme this time no doubt...the MAGA crowd are much angrier now
    This whole trying to generate strife and division thing is very tedious. It doesn’t work and, even if it did, this site doesn’t matter in the scheme of things

    (With apologies to @rcs1000 )
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,938
    HYUFD said:

    If the GOP win the House that will obviously be good news for them in terms of getting through more of their agenda and better still if they add the Senate.

    However midterm results are not really an indicator for the next Presidential election. Obama and Bill Clinton both saw the Democrats lose control of the House and the House and Senate respectively in their first midterms in 1994 and 2010 but both were re elected in 1996 and 2012. Reagan saw the GOP lose House seats in 1982 as the Democrats retained control but was re elected in 1984.

    It is true Trump did see the GOP lose the House in 2018 and he lost the Presidential election in 2020. However Carter saw the Democrats hold the House and Senate in 1978 but lost his re election battle in 1978.

    Bush Jnr had the best first midterms for his party of any President in decades in 2002, with the GOP gaining House and Senate seats post 9/11. Yet he was only narrowly re elected in 2004 over Kerry and if Ohio had gone the other way would have lost

    I like that post. A lot of decent analysis which in summary says these elections are an indication of absolutely nothing whatsoever when it comes to the next presidential election.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 10,434
    kjh said:

    pm215 said:

    Endillion said:

    A lesson for the Tories here, who think "wokeness" outweighs the economy?

    No-one on the Tory side thinks that. We think Labour activists think that, and therefore it's good tactics to get them talking about it, so voters think Labour think " "wokeness" outweighs the economy".
    If that's the strategy, I'm not sure the execution is up to par, because mainly the people I notice banging on about 'woke' are the right...
    I think it is a mix of both in a way.

    a) It is only the right that is fixated by woke.
    b) However if the right do bang on about an almost non existent issue the non-political may well think it is an issue and think the left are bonkers for being so woke, when in fact they aren't. It is a common practice for all side to play. Make your opponents seem like ideological nutters.
    I think if the Tories stick to the specific issues in this space that voters care about (eg the Albanian armada) then they will be fine. If they keep banging on about things that most people don't care about then they will be punished because voters have a long list of things they want politicians to fix for them and will think it is ridiculous for them to be wasting time on marginal issues.
    What I find weird is that so many people on the right seem to confuse left wing nutters on Twitter with the Labour Party. Some loons staking out extreme woke positions doesn't mean that most left of centre people sign up to the same views.
  • novanova Posts: 468
    Martin10 said:

    Sunak is not up to the job of PM.

    Braverman
    Williamson
    COP
    Various other U-turns

    All point in the same direction.

    Hunt appears to be the nearest there is to a grown up left in the parliamentary Conservative Party.

    Sunak wasnt tested enough hefore becoming pm
    I suspect that if he hadn't lucked into being Chancellor when Javid resigned a few weeks before lockdown, he'd be nowhere.

    All that "free money" got linked to him, and provided cover for not being a very good politician.
  • Martin10Martin10 Posts: 142
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the GOP win the House that will obviously be good news for them in terms of getting through more of their agenda and better still if they add the Senate.

    However midterm results are not really an indicator for the next Presidential election. Obama and Bill Clinton both saw the Democrats lose control of the House and the House and Senate respectively in their first midterms in 1994 and 2010 but both were re elected in 1996 and 2012. Reagan saw the GOP lose House seats in 1982 as the Democrats retained control but was re elected in 1984.

    It is true Trump did see the GOP lose the House in 2018 and he lost the Presidential election in 2020. However Carter saw the Democrats hold the House and Senate in 1978 but lost his re election battle in 1978.

    Bush Jnr had the best first midterms for his party of any President in decades in 2002, with the GOP gaining House and Senate seats post 9/11. Yet he was only narrowly re elected in 2004 over Kerry and if Ohio had gone the other way would have lost

    I like that post. A lot of decent analysis which in summary says these elections are an indication of absolutely nothing whatsoever when it comes to the next presidential election.
    Clinton had a strong us economy up to 96 and obama had a recovery from thrme financial crisis...doubt biden will have such a backdrop
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,254
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the GOP win the House that will obviously be good news for them in terms of getting through more of their agenda and better still if they add the Senate.

    However midterm results are not really an indicator for the next Presidential election. Obama and Bill Clinton both saw the Democrats lose control of the House and the House and Senate respectively in their first midterms in 1994 and 2010 but both were re elected in 1996 and 2012. Reagan saw the GOP lose House seats in 1982 as the Democrats retained control but was re elected in 1984.

    It is true Trump did see the GOP lose the House in 2018 and he lost the Presidential election in 2020. However Carter saw the Democrats hold the House and Senate in 1978 but lost his re election battle in 1978.

    Bush Jnr had the best first midterms for his party of any President in decades in 2002, with the GOP gaining House and Senate seats post 9/11. Yet he was only narrowly re elected in 2004 over Kerry and if Ohio had gone the other way would have lost

    I like that post. A lot of decent analysis which in summary says these elections are an indication of absolutely nothing whatsoever when it comes to the next presidential election.
    Thanks, should be Carter lost his re election battle in 1980 not 1978 though, apologies
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,254
    Martin10 said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the GOP win the House that will obviously be good news for them in terms of getting through more of their agenda and better still if they add the Senate.

    However midterm results are not really an indicator for the next Presidential election. Obama and Bill Clinton both saw the Democrats lose control of the House and the House and Senate respectively in their first midterms in 1994 and 2010 but both were re elected in 1996 and 2012. Reagan saw the GOP lose House seats in 1982 as the Democrats retained control but was re elected in 1984.

    It is true Trump did see the GOP lose the House in 2018 and he lost the Presidential election in 2020. However Carter saw the Democrats hold the House and Senate in 1978 but lost his re election battle in 1978.

    Bush Jnr had the best first midterms for his party of any President in decades in 2002, with the GOP gaining House and Senate seats post 9/11. Yet he was only narrowly re elected in 2004 over Kerry and if Ohio had gone the other way would have lost

    I like that post. A lot of decent analysis which in summary says these elections are an indication of absolutely nothing whatsoever when it comes to the next presidential election.
    Clinton had a strong us economy up to 96 and obama had a recovery from thrme financial crisis...doubt biden will have such a backdrop
    Though if the GOP take Congress they also become responsible for the economy, not just Biden
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,938
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the GOP win the House that will obviously be good news for them in terms of getting through more of their agenda and better still if they add the Senate.

    However midterm results are not really an indicator for the next Presidential election. Obama and Bill Clinton both saw the Democrats lose control of the House and the House and Senate respectively in their first midterms in 1994 and 2010 but both were re elected in 1996 and 2012. Reagan saw the GOP lose House seats in 1982 as the Democrats retained control but was re elected in 1984.

    It is true Trump did see the GOP lose the House in 2018 and he lost the Presidential election in 2020. However Carter saw the Democrats hold the House and Senate in 1978 but lost his re election battle in 1978.

    Bush Jnr had the best first midterms for his party of any President in decades in 2002, with the GOP gaining House and Senate seats post 9/11. Yet he was only narrowly re elected in 2004 over Kerry and if Ohio had gone the other way would have lost

    I like that post. A lot of decent analysis which in summary says these elections are an indication of absolutely nothing whatsoever when it comes to the next presidential election.
    Thanks, should be Carter lost his re election battle in 1980 not 1978 though, apologies
    @HYUFD is that really you? Admitting to an error? Are you ok? Only joking of course.
  • Martin10Martin10 Posts: 142

    Martin10 said:

    Stereodog said:

    Is it only me who thinks Desantis would be more of a disaster for America and the world than Trump? Trump was worryingly erratic and his rhetoric could be dangerous but at heart he was Democrat who was too disorganised to properly mount a coup or even get Obamacare repealed. Desantis has all of the dangerous MAGA beliefs with the additional worries that he actually believes them and is smart enough to carry them out.

    If Trump gets in he will be more ruthless and extreme this time no doubt...the MAGA crowd are much angrier now
    This whole trying to generate strife and division thing is very tedious. It doesn’t work and, even if it did, this site doesn’t matter in the scheme of things

    (With apologies to @rcs1000 )

    Martin10 said:

    Stereodog said:

    Is it only me who thinks Desantis would be more of a disaster for America and the world than Trump? Trump was worryingly erratic and his rhetoric could be dangerous but at heart he was Democrat who was too disorganised to properly mount a coup or even get Obamacare repealed. Desantis has all of the dangerous MAGA beliefs with the additional worries that he actually believes them and is smart enough to carry them out.

    If Trump gets in he will be more ruthless and extreme this time no doubt...the MAGA crowd are much angrier now
    This whole trying to generate strife and division thing is very tedious. It
    doesn’t work and, even if it did, this site doesn’t matter in the scheme of
    things

    (With apologies to @rcs1000 )
    Someones having a bad day...im making a statement of fact....maybe you find the chaotic modern world too much for you....

  • CookieCookie Posts: 7,857

    kjh said:

    pm215 said:

    Endillion said:

    A lesson for the Tories here, who think "wokeness" outweighs the economy?

    No-one on the Tory side thinks that. We think Labour activists think that, and therefore it's good tactics to get them talking about it, so voters think Labour think " "wokeness" outweighs the economy".
    If that's the strategy, I'm not sure the execution is up to par, because mainly the people I notice banging on about 'woke' are the right...
    I think it is a mix of both in a way.

    a) It is only the right that is fixated by woke.
    b) However if the right do bang on about an almost non existent issue the non-political may well think it is an issue and think the left are bonkers for being so woke, when in fact they aren't. It is a common practice for all side to play. Make your opponents seem like ideological nutters.
    I think if the Tories stick to the specific issues in this space that voters care about (eg the Albanian armada) then they will be fine. If they keep banging on about things that most people don't care about then they will be punished because voters have a long list of things they want politicians to fix for them and will think it is ridiculous for them to be wasting time on marginal issues.
    What I find weird is that so many people on the right seem to confuse left wing nutters on Twitter with the Labour Party. Some loons staking out extreme woke positions doesn't mean that most left of centre people sign up to the same views.
    It's not just some nutters on twitter though. If you ever interact with an educational establishment, or the arts, or a museum, or pretty much any sphere of public life, you will be bombarded by the woke's views on matters of race, gender and the environment in the same way that more pious regimes will bombard you with the tenets of their particular faith, or that communist Eastern Europe would bombard you with the tenets of international socialism.


  • Martin10Martin10 Posts: 142
    Cookie said:

    kjh said:

    pm215 said:

    Endillion said:

    A lesson for the Tories here, who think "wokeness" outweighs the economy?

    No-one on the Tory side thinks that. We think Labour activists think that, and therefore it's good tactics to get them talking about it, so voters think Labour think " "wokeness" outweighs the economy".
    If that's the strategy, I'm not sure the execution is up to par, because mainly the people I notice banging on about 'woke' are the right...
    I think it is a mix of both in a way.

    a) It is only the right that is fixated by woke.
    b) However if the right do bang on about an almost non existent issue the non-political may well think it is an issue and think the left are bonkers for being so woke, when in fact they aren't. It is a common practice for all side to play. Make your opponents seem like ideological nutters.
    I think if the Tories stick to the specific issues in this space that voters care about (eg the Albanian armada) then they will be fine. If they keep banging on about things that most people don't care about then they will be punished because voters have a long list of things they want politicians to fix for them and will think it is ridiculous for them to be wasting time on marginal issues.
    What I find weird is that so many people on the right seem to confuse left wing nutters on Twitter with the Labour Party. Some loons staking out extreme woke positions doesn't mean that most left of centre people sign up to the same views.
    It's not just some nutters on twitter though. If you ever interact with an educational establishment, or the arts, or a museum, or pretty much any sphere of public life, you will be bombarded by the woke's views on matters of race, gender and the environment in the same way that more pious regimes will bombard you with the tenets of their particular faith, or that communist Eastern Europe would bombard you with the tenets of international socialism.


    True the schools bombard kids with woke propaganda...most now think churchill is a bad man...people have a right to be angry about this....
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,247
    John Curtice writes for State of the Nation:

    "Diverting voters’ attention towards immigration is no longer a route to electoral success."

    Why immigration is no longer a vote-winner for the Tories


    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1589565874134032384?s=46&t=Vt6moVCVbLe_hnJ8feM4aA
  • Martin10Martin10 Posts: 142
    Zelensky has said 4.5 million households in Ukraine now without power in nightly address
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 42,824
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    If the GOP win the House that will obviously be good news for them in terms of getting through more of their agenda and better still if they add the Senate.

    However midterm results are not really an indicator for the next Presidential election. Obama and Bill Clinton both saw the Democrats lose control of the House and the House and Senate respectively in their first midterms in 1994 and 2010 but both were re elected in 1996 and 2012. Reagan saw the GOP lose House seats in 1982 as the Democrats retained control but was re elected in 1984.

    It is true Trump did see the GOP lose the House in 2018 and he lost the Presidential election in 2020. However Carter saw the Democrats hold the House and Senate in 1978 but lost his re election battle in 1978.

    Bush Jnr had the best first midterms for his party of any President in decades in 2002, with the GOP gaining House and Senate seats post 9/11. Yet he was only narrowly re elected in 2004 over Kerry and if Ohio had gone the other way would have lost

    I like that post. A lot of decent analysis which in summary says these elections are an indication of absolutely nothing whatsoever when it comes to the next presidential election.
    Thanks, should be Carter lost his re election battle in 1980 not 1978 though, apologies
    @HYUFD is that really you? Admitting to an error? Are you ok? Only joking of course.
    But is he ready to ask for 167 other offences to be taken into consideration? ;)
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,421
    Martin10 said:

    Martin10 said:

    Stereodog said:

    Is it only me who thinks Desantis would be more of a disaster for America and the world than Trump? Trump was worryingly erratic and his rhetoric could be dangerous but at heart he was Democrat who was too disorganised to properly mount a coup or even get Obamacare repealed. Desantis has all of the dangerous MAGA beliefs with the additional worries that he actually believes them and is smart enough to carry them out.

    If Trump gets in he will be more ruthless and extreme this time no doubt...the MAGA crowd are much angrier now
    This whole trying to generate strife and division thing is very tedious. It doesn’t work and, even if it did, this site doesn’t matter in the scheme of things

    (With apologies to @rcs1000 )

    Martin10 said:

    Stereodog said:

    Is it only me who thinks Desantis would be more of a disaster for America and the world than Trump? Trump was worryingly erratic and his rhetoric could be dangerous but at heart he was Democrat who was too disorganised to properly mount a coup or even get Obamacare repealed. Desantis has all of the dangerous MAGA beliefs with the additional worries that he actually believes them and is smart enough to carry them out.

    If Trump gets in he will be more ruthless and extreme this time no doubt...the MAGA crowd are much angrier now
    This whole trying to generate strife and division thing is very tedious. It
    doesn’t work and, even if it did, this site doesn’t matter in the scheme of
    things

    (With apologies to @rcs1000 )

    Someones having a bad day...im making a statement of fact....maybe you find the chaotic modern world too much for you....

    Opinion not fact
  • DriverDriver Posts: 2,285
    Martin10 said:

    Zelensky has said 4.5 million households in Ukraine now without power in nightly address

    What are your bosses trying to achieve by doing that?
  • Martin10 said:

    Sunak is not up to the job of PM.

    Braverman
    Williamson
    COP
    Various other U-turns

    All point in the same direction.

    Hunt appears to be the nearest there is to a grown up left in the parliamentary Conservative Party.

    Sunak wasnt tested enough hefore becoming pm
    Being PM is difficult. Whilst Sunak may well be a technocrat, you need to be a politician with judgement as well.

    Boris was a politician, but no technocrat. May was too much a technocrat unable to make quick decisions, but without sufficient skills as a politician.

    Truss did not have judgement.

    To be a good PM, I think that you need to be a politican, but with sufficient technocratic skills to keep on top of your brief and make quick decisions; a good administration can make up for lack of skills, but not judgement.

    An excellent PM would have both. Thatcher had both.
  • Martin10Martin10 Posts: 142
    Driver said:

    Martin10 said:

    Zelensky has said 4.5 million households in Ukraine now without power in nightly address

    What are your bosses trying to achieve by doing that?
    Its getting cold in ukraine now...not nice to be without power....reason why people like kissinger are calling for negotiations
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