The tectonic plates appear to be shifting – politicalbetting.com

Apparently Braverman will back whoever allows her to set up a new dept which can oversee weekly executions of migrants .

She seems to think that two weeks as HS means she’s now a big beast in the Tory party .

Nothing says “I’ve changed” like saying you’ve got 100 MPs supporting you when you don’t.
https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1583930799908278272

Ashcroft comes out for Rishi.

nico679 said:

Apparently Braverman will back whoever allows her to set up a new dept which can oversee weekly executions of migrants .

She seems to think that two weeks as HS means she’s now a big beast in the Tory party .

It'll be interesting to see if Rishi decides it's better to have her inside or outside the tent.

Scott_xP said:

Nothing says “I’ve changed” like saying you’ve got 100 MPs supporting you when you don’t.
https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1583930799908278272

Even if he's changed, which is about as likely as Leon stopping the drink, he still faces the impeachment charges for lying from the time before he changed i.e. only about three months ago.

So Sunak and Bozo are being urged to have a joint ticket according to the DT . Apparently to stop a party split . Are they seriously suggesting after all this Sunak will back Johnson as PM and this will allegedly stop a split.

Benpointer said:

Scott_xP said:

Nothing says “I’ve changed” like saying you’ve got 100 MPs supporting you when you don’t.
https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1583930799908278272

See also:

"Undecided Tory MPs, the hard of thinking, Johnson was calling you yesterday from his holiday abroad. That's a holiday abroad when parliament is not on holiday. If he told you - from his holiday - that it would be different this time, this is a big clue. It won't."
https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1583721470827511808?s=20&t=w8FhUJhaqCCy4cVqLpgQeA

When you we are school i bet the kid who was always playing hookie was dead popular....

wooliedyed said:

Andy_JS said:

"When asked to describe Truss, two former Conservative government ministers both used the same word: weird. “She doesn’t have any friends. She’s just weird,” one said. “She sits far too close to you,” said another. “And when she talks to you, she keeps repeating your name. It’s weird.”"

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/22/from-fighter-to-quitter-the-weird-rise-and-fall-of-liz-truss

See now im going to feel sorry for her. Im extremely socially anxious, awkward and weird and dont have many friends. I dont sit close though, physical human contact repulses me.

I dont like othering people based on them being odd

More like:

"she doesn’t have any friends... Now."

Andy_JS said:

nico679 said:

Apparently Braverman will back whoever allows her to set up a new dept which can oversee weekly executions of migrants .

She seems to think that two weeks as HS means she’s now a big beast in the Tory party .

It'll be interesting to see if Rishi decides it's better to have her inside or outside the tent.

Ambassador to Rwanda?

wooliedyed said:

Andy_JS said:

"When asked to describe Truss, two former Conservative government ministers both used the same word: weird. “She doesn’t have any friends. She’s just weird,” one said. “She sits far too close to you,” said another. “And when she talks to you, she keeps repeating your name. It’s weird.”"

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/22/from-fighter-to-quitter-the-weird-rise-and-fall-of-liz-truss

See now im going to feel sorry for her. Im extremely socially anxious, awkward and weird and dont have many friends. I dont sit close though, physical human contact repulses me.

I dont like othering people based on them being odd

And why kick her like that when she’s down ?

Fair game when she was effing up the government, and not unfair to hold her responsible for effing up the government, but she’s done.

nico679 said:

So Sunak and Bozo are being urged to have a joint ticket according to the DT . Apparently to stop a party split . Are they seriously suggesting after all this Sunak will back Johnson as PM and this will allegedly stop a split.

The Telegraph has been away with the fairies for quite some time.

Nigelb said:

nico679 said:

So Sunak and Bozo are being urged to have a joint ticket according to the DT . Apparently to stop a party split . Are they seriously suggesting after all this Sunak will back Johnson as PM and this will allegedly stop a split.

The Telegraph has been away with the fairies for quite some time.

The Times briefly mention them governing together also . I find this astonishing, especially after so many Sunak supporters have already come out and supported him . The only joint ticket acceptable to Bozo would be him as PM .

Nigelb said:

wooliedyed said:

Andy_JS said:

"When asked to describe Truss, two former Conservative government ministers both used the same word: weird. “She doesn’t have any friends. She’s just weird,” one said. “She sits far too close to you,” said another. “And when she talks to you, she keeps repeating your name. It’s weird.”"

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/22/from-fighter-to-quitter-the-weird-rise-and-fall-of-liz-truss

See now im going to feel sorry for her. Im extremely socially anxious, awkward and weird and dont have many friends. I dont sit close though, physical human contact repulses me.

I dont like othering people based on them being odd

And why kick her like that when she’s down ?

Fair game when she was effing up the government, and not unfair to hold her responsible for effing up the government, but she’s done.

Its rife though, in politics, entertainment, all of it. Social media has just magnified it even more. Thats how you end up with nurses saying Tories shouldnt get treatment and political journalists calling a human being a c*nt on camera just because he didnt provide his BAFTA moment

Benpointer said:

state_go_away said:

Andy_JS said:

"When asked to describe Truss, two former Conservative government ministers both used the same word: weird. “She doesn’t have any friends. She’s just weird,” one said. “She sits far too close to you,” said another. “And when she talks to you, she keeps repeating your name. It’s weird.”"

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/22/from-fighter-to-quitter-the-weird-rise-and-fall-of-liz-truss

I think that is poor form and not gentlemen like tbh. Attacking her for her policies is fine and demanding she quit is fine but making fun of her personal traits especially from a man talking about a lady is not right and mean

"...especially from a man talking about a lady..." Really? In 2022?

well yes - its not good manners either way or man to man or woman to woman but I woudl suggest it is more hurtful on average for a woman to be described in such a way by a man (and the men should really know better ). If somebody called your brother weird woudl you react in the same way as if they called your sister ? I think most of us would be more upset if they did it to a sister if we are honest

state_go_away said:

Andy_JS said:

"When asked to describe Truss, two former Conservative government ministers both used the same word: weird. “She doesn’t have any friends. She’s just weird,” one said. “She sits far too close to you,” said another. “And when she talks to you, she keeps repeating your name. It’s weird.”"

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/22/from-fighter-to-quitter-the-weird-rise-and-fall-of-liz-truss

I think that is poor form and not gentlemen like tbh. Attacking her for her policies is fine and demanding she quit is fine but making fun of her personal traits especially from a man talking about a lady is not right and mean

Brutal thing politics, but Truss rose beyond her level of competence. Her biggest problem was being a poor listener.

I blame the MPs who put her in power knowing that, for ideological reasons.

nico679 said:

Nigelb said:

nico679 said:

So Sunak and Bozo are being urged to have a joint ticket according to the DT . Apparently to stop a party split . Are they seriously suggesting after all this Sunak will back Johnson as PM and this will allegedly stop a split.

The Telegraph has been away with the fairies for quite some time.

The Times briefly mention them governing together also . I find this astonishing, especially after so many Sunak supporters have already come out and supported him . The only joint ticket acceptable to Bozo would be him as PM .

I read it as a classic power-play from both of them, for the consumption of the members and thicker MPs.

I don’t buy any of it.

They’re also trying to deflect blame for the fractious shitshow that will resume immediately after the winner is crowned.

caroline wheeler
@cazjwheeler
·
1h
Am told by sources the meeting is still ongoing….

Looks like a few media groups aren't too happy with Rishi as PM. Could this be because he isn't seen as a sycophant to the press?

This all over, isn't it? Sunak is the next PM. Dom must be chuffed.

RandallFlagg said:

This all over, isn't it? Sunak is the next PM. Dom must be chuffed.

Doms quietness suggests he isnt remotely concerned about Boris getting back in

RandallFlagg said:

This all over, isn't it? Sunak is the next PM. Dom must be chuffed.

1.29 for two days of your money.

glw said:

rottenborough said:

caroline wheeler
@cazjwheeler
·
1h
Am told by sources the meeting is still ongoing….

What is there to talk about? The idea that those two could have some sort of joint ticket is even more nuts than Boris alone.

Unless we are at 'who do i have to give jobs to to stop a split?'

dixiedean said:

But neither you nor me ran for the post of PM.
Being able to put a vast range of folk at ease, and not think you're weird is a vital part of the job description.

Well, you say that, except it didn't keep her out of the top job, and it's not really why Truss ended up having to quit, so it can't be *that* vital. It's useful, but so are a lot of other qualities Truss seemed not to possess.

rottenborough said:

Johnson could do a deal to be a Heseltine? Massive economic/levelling up/infrastructure/regeneration department and so on.

He could spin it as rewarding the Red Wall who supported him and delivering on Brexit.

Highly unlikely.

But more likely than FO.

The big flaw in your plan is that it would involve, y'know, actual work on the part of Johnson.

Absolute non-starter.

rottenborough said:

Christopher Hope📝
@christopherhope
·
2m
NEW 👀
One Boris campaign adviser
@JamesDuddridge
tells me tonight: “I personally know 76 names, there are a number consulting associations who will announce Sunday and Monday.”
Sources insist Johnson does have 100 MPs supporting him. If so, it’s going to the members next week.

Johnson and his cronies lie through their teeth constantly. Is there anyone out there who hasn't grasped that yet. If "Dudders" told me it was Sunday tomorrow I go to the calendar the check.

After the last two months, I’m ready for Rishi.

Whatever the talents of @BorisJohnson and he has many but this is not his time…Boris please support Rishi (it’s now only between @RishiSunak and @PennyMordaunt and while I do love Penny ( she has the same birthday as me) it’s not her time either. So a coronation for Rishi pls …

https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/1583929014342733824

pm215 said:

dixiedean said:

But neither you nor me ran for the post of PM.
Being able to put a vast range of folk at ease, and not think you're weird is a vital part of the job description.

Well, you say that, except it didn't keep her out of the top job, and it's not really why Truss ended up having to quit, so it can't be *that* vital. It's useful, but so are a lot of other qualities Truss seemed not to possess.

It didn't keep her out of the job, no.
But any decent HR in any other job would have done so.

Nigelb said:

Carnyx said:

Nigelb said:

Carnyx said:

LostPassword said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This is why I think whoever wins the contest will lead the Tories to an epochal defeat. The economy is in a very bad place.

We shouldn’t let this be buried by other news today. Foodbank charity Trussell Trust says that the need for foodbanks has outstripped donations for the first time. It has distributed 46% more emergency food parcels in August and September than at the same time in 2021.

https://twitter.com/BasitMahmood91/status/1583181523552849920

I'm assuming donations are down as well?

They spoke to some people on radio 4 recently who said that they always used to donate to food banks, but now they were needing to use them, so unless other people have donated more it's hard to see how donations could not have fallen.

The donations in kind have certainly fallen:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/oct/20/uks-biggest-food-bank-network-to-spend-millions-on-parcels-this-winter

This is quite eye-opening:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/oct/21/donate-tins-treats-and-toiletries-how-to-help-a-food-bank

'Most food banks report clients are increasingly asking for food that requires no cooking. For some, it’s about saving energy, but some don’t have access to cooking facilities or even a kettle. Pots of instant noodles or porridge that just need hot water are useful. [... "]We’d give some tuna, so you can just open that, stick it on some bread and eat it. It’s really minimal stuff.” Neilly keeps a stock of tinned sweetcorn, which can be eaten cold.

The Trussell Trust is a pretty good charity.

Ours is an independent one, as it happens, but that's not to decry the TT at all.

If you have a local food bank you know and trust, then that’s as good as anything.

My wife did a lot of work with a food bank in Lockdown. An issue with the TT ones (not their fault) is the links (real or perceived) to DWP, Councils and the Home Office. Often those whose status is legally dubious (either via immigration or because there’s too many in a flat etc.) don’t want to deal with them because of that. That’s the niche for smaller, less “official” food banks.

GustavoFrings said:

glw said:

rottenborough said:

caroline wheeler
@cazjwheeler
·
1h
Am told by sources the meeting is still ongoing….

What is there to talk about? The idea that those two could have some sort of joint ticket is even more nuts than Boris alone.

Boris will want good optics if he's go to quietly, would imagine they are negotiating how everything is going to pan out over the next few days.

"I returned from my holiday because I had forgotten my wallet and on landing found that the wonderful Rishi Sunak was standing to be leader. I was somewhat bemused, as when I left England one balmy late autumn morning, the prime minster was Liz Truss. Having picked up my wallet I intend to return to my holiday, which I assure everyone is a working holiday as I still have 50,000 words to do and I salute our new prime minister and will be rooting for him all the way. Hasta etc..."

If (or should I say when) Sunak becomes PM, then the next election might well be a contest. If Boris had become PM the Tories would have continued to implode, but under Sunak? He and Hunt can blame the economic mess on the Lettuce, and say they are in a better position than Labour to sort it out. The Red Wall is gone, but I fear Sunak will repeat the 2015 trick of weaponising the prospect of the SNP holding the balance of power (particularly with Sturgeon's attempts to use the next election as a de facto indyref) and the chaos that would bring. The Tories winning a wafer-thin majority through this strategy is still possible.
Labour cannot be complacent. They are still favourites to win, but they need to be ready and Reeves needs to show that Labour's economic plans are credible.

wooliedyed said:

Nigelb said:

wooliedyed said:

Andy_JS said:

"When asked to describe Truss, two former Conservative government ministers both used the same word: weird. “She doesn’t have any friends. She’s just weird,” one said. “She sits far too close to you,” said another. “And when she talks to you, she keeps repeating your name. It’s weird.”"

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/oct/22/from-fighter-to-quitter-the-weird-rise-and-fall-of-liz-truss

See now im going to feel sorry for her. Im extremely socially anxious, awkward and weird and dont have many friends. I dont sit close though, physical human contact repulses me.

I dont like othering people based on them being odd

And why kick her like that when she’s down ?

Fair game when she was effing up the government, and not unfair to hold her responsible for effing up the government, but she’s done.

Its rife though, in politics, entertainment, all of it. Social media has just magnified it even more. Thats how you end up with nurses saying Tories shouldnt get treatment and political journalists calling a human being a c*nt on camera just because he didnt provide his BAFTA moment

To be fair, in the latter case it wasn't 'on camera' it was mistakenly picked up on a still running feed. Plenty of journalists or politicians have dropped their guard and used choice language about their interviewees or opponents when they thought what they were saying was a private outlet for anger rather than public - even an age of more supposed decorum. Still wrong of course, but a slightly different human failing than a public verbal tirade.

biggles said:

Nigelb said:

Carnyx said:

Nigelb said:

Carnyx said:

LostPassword said:

ydoethur said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

This is why I think whoever wins the contest will lead the Tories to an epochal defeat. The economy is in a very bad place.

We shouldn’t let this be buried by other news today. Foodbank charity Trussell Trust says that the need for foodbanks has outstripped donations for the first time. It has distributed 46% more emergency food parcels in August and September than at the same time in 2021.

https://twitter.com/BasitMahmood91/status/1583181523552849920

I'm assuming donations are down as well?

They spoke to some people on radio 4 recently who said that they always used to donate to food banks, but now they were needing to use them, so unless other people have donated more it's hard to see how donations could not have fallen.

The donations in kind have certainly fallen:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/oct/20/uks-biggest-food-bank-network-to-spend-millions-on-parcels-this-winter

This is quite eye-opening:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/oct/21/donate-tins-treats-and-toiletries-how-to-help-a-food-bank

'Most food banks report clients are increasingly asking for food that requires no cooking. For some, it’s about saving energy, but some don’t have access to cooking facilities or even a kettle. Pots of instant noodles or porridge that just need hot water are useful. [... "]We’d give some tuna, so you can just open that, stick it on some bread and eat it. It’s really minimal stuff.” Neilly keeps a stock of tinned sweetcorn, which can be eaten cold.

The Trussell Trust is a pretty good charity.

Ours is an independent one, as it happens, but that's not to decry the TT at all.

If you have a local food bank you know and trust, then that’s as good as anything.

My wife did a lot of work with a food bank in Lockdown. An issue with the TT ones (not their fault) is the links (real or perceived) to DWP, Councils and the Home Office. Often those whose status is legally dubious (either via immigration or because there’s too many in a flat etc.) don’t want to deal with them because of that. That’s the niche for smaller, less “official” food banks.

Yes. I always worked with an independent. Purely because they didn't require permission to attend from a "gatekeeper".
We simply gave to those in need. Even if they didn't have "papers please".

FrankBooth said:

If Johnson thinks he has 100 backers why is negotiating with Sunak? Sounds like he's trying to bluff a weak hand.

And what job could Sunak reasonably offer someone who's about to be interrogated with hot coals by the standards committtee?

It does make one feel slightly nervous . Given the crazy things that have happened over the last few months surely Sunak wouldn’t support Johnson ? I know I must be sounding a bit irrational !

rottenborough said:

kinabalu said:

FrankBooth said:

Looks like a few media groups aren't too happy with Rishi as PM. Could this be because he isn't seen as a sycophant to the press?

WEF globalist stooge is the phrase I keep bumping into whenever I venture into the swamp.

I thought it had been drained?

“WEF”?

Poll reveals only Boris can challenge Keir Starmer at a general election - as Johnson and frontrunner Rishi launch late-night talks in bid to thrash out power-sharing truce with latest tally showing Sunak with double ex-PM's number of MP backers

"The former Prime Minister is arguing that if he re-entered No 10 with his former Chancellor in a senior role it would avoid a divisive battle, sources told The Mail on Sunday."

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11344021/Boris-Rishi-meet-TONIGHT-hash-deal-govern-together.html

Johnson game play seems to me: lie about having 100 nominations already. Go to meeting. Tell Sunak it would be divisive for the membership to have to choose him (Johnson) over Sunak by such a huge margin, so best Sunak stands down now and become FO sec and deputy.

Off topic, does anyone have a good estimate of the cost of the price cap it gas prices remain at current levels, well below previous peaks?

The weather has remained mild and European gas storages continue to be filled up, so I wonder if there will end up being a big savings versus previous forecasts.

The meeting is over.

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1583947866779029504

Jim_Miller said:

In her instructive account of how the US government often failed against COVID, Dr. Deborah Birx says she had to guard against showing anger because she believed that would lead to her being dismissed as a hysterical woman.

(Here's the book: https://www.harpercollins.com/products/silent-invasion-deborah-birx?variant=40153410043938 I think "Silent Invasion" is quite good, but would have preferred many more numbers, and some graphs -- after all, she is an epidemiologist. But I recognize that a book like that would have appealed to fewer people.)

More generally, I would say that, in the US, if you want to insult a man, you call him a coward, and if you want to insult a woman you attack her looks. (As Trump did with Birx, recently.) Both kinds of attacks may be unfair, sexist, whatever, but they do fit the way many people think.

same applies in the UK , for all of Frankie Boyles offensive jokes the one that got him the most flak was when he said that Rebecca Adlington looked like a reflection in a spoon.

Benpointer said:

Extrapolating from Guido's named nominations: (Sunak 130, Johnson 58, Mordaunt 24) gets us to

Sunak 218
Johnson 97 (!)
Mordaunt 40

If the remaining MPs split the same way.

That's interesting but I assume that MPs aren't obliged to nominate anyone at all and some might not do so, meaning that Johnson will struggle to reach 97.

OTOH, what's going to happen is that if Mordaunt drops out before nominations close (realising she can't reach 100) or if her supporters realise she can't win, some of her nominations could move over to Johnson. Perhaps then he's still in with a chance?

rottenborough said:

Johnson game play seems to me: lie about having 100 nominations already. Go to meeting. Tell Sunak it would be divisive for the membership to have to choose him (Johnson) over Sunak by such a huge margin, so best Sunak stands down now and become FO sec and deputy.

Sunak would ask who they are.

What worries me is whether it's really 16:4:3 Johnson:Sunak:Mordaunt among whips, vice chairs, board members, etc., as Paul Staines says it is. If it is, one possible reason is they're terrified of a "members'" (meaning a constituency chairmen's or "colonels'") revolt if Sunak is the only nominee and becomes PM on Monday. And they would know the risk better than most. That is what could really smash the party. They could set up a new party - they'd have the money and the ground game and local connections. They'd get the Enoch channelling franchise and could keep hold of it.

Many in Tory world are extremely serious about their racism. It's a big part of their outlook. This is how they came to choose a weirdo with nothing serious going for her against Sunak who seems sane and relatively competent but the first thing many Tory members see about him and what they consider to be most important about him is his skin colour.

Edit: if there's more than one nominee, will there be debates?

DJ41 said:

rottenborough said:

Johnson game play seems to me: lie about having 100 nominations already. Go to meeting. Tell Sunak it would be divisive for the membership to have to choose him (Johnson) over Sunak by such a huge margin, so best Sunak stands down now and become FO sec and deputy.

Sunak would ask who they are.

What worries me is whether it's really 16:4:3 Johnson:Sunak:Mordaunt among whips, vice chairs, board members, etc., as Paul Staines says it is. If it is, one possible reason is they're terrified of a "members'" (meaning a constituency chairmen's or "colonels'") revolt if Sunak is the only nominee. And they would know the risk better than most. That is what could really smash the party. They could set up a new party - they'd have the money and the ground game and local connections.

Many in Tory world are extremely serious about their racism. It's a big part of their outlook. This is how they came to choose a weirdo with nothing serious going for her against Sunak who seems sane and relatively competent but the first thing many Tory members see about him and what they consider to be most important about him is his skin colour.

Edit: if there's more than one nominee, will there be debates?

Many in bot world are very serious about their racism. Usually in Moscow, towards Ukrainians.

Jacinda Ardern feels the heat as frustrated voters punish her party at the ballot box

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/22/jacinda-ardern-feels-heat-frustrated-voters-punish-party-ballot/

Politics is a rough unforgiving business.

RobD said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Chinese TikTok has already banned searches for “Hu Jintao”

https://twitter.com/blader/status/1583737611738193920

UK authorities should follow suit and ban searches for "Liz Truss" “Boris Johnson”.

Fixed it for you