Johnson game play seems to me: lie about having 100 nominations already. Go to meeting. Tell Sunak it would be divisive for the membership to have to choose him (Johnson) over Sunak by such a huge margin, so best Sunak stands down now and become FO sec and deputy.
Sunak would ask who they are.
What worries me is whether it's really 16:4:3 Johnson:Sunak:Mordaunt among whips, vice chairs, board members, etc., as Paul Staines says it is. If it is, one possible reason is they're terrified of a "members'" (meaning a constituency chairmen's or "colonels'") revolt if Sunak is the only nominee. And they would know the risk better than most. That is what could really smash the party. They could set up a new party - they'd have the money and the ground game and local connections.
Many in Tory world are extremely serious about their racism. It's a big part of their outlook. This is how they came to choose a weirdo with nothing serious going for her against Sunak who seems sane and relatively competent but the first thing many Tory members see about him and what they consider to be most important about him is his skin colour.
Edit: if there's more than one nominee, will there be debates?
Many in bot world are very serious about their racism. Usually in Moscow, towards Ukrainians.
Anyone who might otherwise spur you to think about what you haven't thought about so far must be a Russian agent, right.
That kind of attitude infests the internet: not the Russian theme so much, but the one-liner insult thing. "Don't make me think, you woker/bot/poohead/etc. We all know your type." GTFU.
Reading the Q3 report from long-time fund manager Peter Spiller, who looks after what little excess money I have. First and last paragraphs:
"The impact of recent government policies on UK financial markets has been like watching a drunken dynamite fisherman. An erratic and poorly coordinated event is shortly followed by a violent explosion in the liquid pool of assets that is the gilt market. As the ocean boils, the ecosystem within it suffocates. Fortunately, a majority of our portfolio is far enough away from the blast zone to have avoided the worst of the fallout, but frustratingly not all of it."
"It is exciting to be able to invest into the gilt market again, after many years of being priced out. It is a natural asset for a conservative sterling investor to hold. However, our excitement is tinged with a sense of regret that the recent disruption will have long term negative consequences for the UK. It is unwise to go dynamite fishing when drunk. Not only do you indiscriminately kill everything in the sea, but you might end up in advertently blowing up your own boat."
So, Guido thinks Johnson has 74 backers but that quite a few of these are party officials who have to remain publicly neutral. Question - if they have to remain publicly neutral, can they still nominate Johnson? They can only nominate him if the committee doesn't publish the list of nominators. If it does and if they can't, their support doesn't help him reach 100.
So, Guido thinks Johnson has 74 backers but that quite a few of these are party officials who have to remain publicly neutral. Question - if they have to remain publicly neutral, can they still nominate Johnson? They can only nominate him if the committee doesn't publish the list of nominators. If it does and if they can't, their support doesn't help him reach 100.
Reading the Q3 report from long-time fund manager Peter Spiller, who looks after what little excess money I have. First and last paragraphs:
"The impact of recent government policies on UK financial markets has been like watching a drunken dynamite fisherman. An erratic and poorly coordinated event is shortly followed by a violent explosion in the liquid pool of assets that is the gilt market. As the ocean boils, the ecosystem within it suffocates. Fortunately, a majority of our portfolio is far enough away from the blast zone to have avoided the worst of the fallout, but frustratingly not all of it."
"It is exciting to be able to invest into the gilt market again, after many years of being priced out. It is a natural asset for a conservative sterling investor to hold. However, our excitement is tinged with a sense of regret that the recent disruption will have long term negative consequences for the UK. It is unwise to go dynamite fishing when drunk. Not only do you indiscriminately kill everything in the sea, but you might end up in advertently blowing up your own boat."
Ah, fund managers. People scientifically proven to be no more accurate than a monkey throwing darts at a board (no really, look it up, it’s a research affiliates paper from about 2010/2015 - though there are some issues around risk management using the monkey/dart system) yet still manage to extract cash from gullible customers. Good luck to them, I say.
If you need a 100 to get on the ballot then I would have thought these would have to be official nominations . In the July leadership those who nominated were named .
So, Guido thinks Johnson has 74 backers but that quite a few of these are party officials who have to remain publicly neutral. Question - if they have to remain publicly neutral, can they still nominate Johnson? They can only nominate him if the committee doesn't publish the list of nominators. If it does and if they can't, their support doesn't help him reach 100.
I think it’s a secret ballot/nomination.
Yes, aiui only the top two nominators are named, and after that, of course, the ballots are secret. However, many MPs are declaring their intentions on Twitter and to the various compilers of spreadsheets.
So, Guido thinks Johnson has 74 backers but that quite a few of these are party officials who have to remain publicly neutral. Question - if they have to remain publicly neutral, can they still nominate Johnson? They can only nominate him if the committee doesn't publish the list of nominators. If it does and if they can't, their support doesn't help him reach 100.
I think it’s a secret ballot/nomination.
That's useful to know. (But those are two different things. There are many organisations that have a secret ballot for the actual elections but don't keep the nominations/nominators secret.
Night all. It's been an exciting day of apparently fruitless Boris ramping, and I'm just settling down under a giant head of Ramses VI in the British Museum for what will no doubt be an excruciatingly uncomfortable night's sleep.
Night all. It's been an exciting day of apparently fruitless Boris ramping, and I'm just settling down under a giant head of Ramses VI in the British Museum for what will no doubt be an excruciatingly uncomfortable night's sleep.
Lol are you on a protest in there ? Or a curator ?
Johnson game play seems to me: lie about having 100 nominations already. Go to meeting. Tell Sunak it would be divisive for the membership to have to choose him (Johnson) over Sunak by such a huge margin, so best Sunak stands down now and become FO sec and deputy.
Sunak would ask who they are.
What worries me is whether it's really 16:4:3 Johnson:Sunak:Mordaunt among whips, vice chairs, board members, etc., as Paul Staines says it is. If it is, one possible reason is they're terrified of a "members'" (meaning a constituency chairmen's or "colonels'") revolt if Sunak is the only nominee. And they would know the risk better than most. That is what could really smash the party. They could set up a new party - they'd have the money and the ground game and local connections.
Many in Tory world are extremely serious about their racism. It's a big part of their outlook. This is how they came to choose a weirdo with nothing serious going for her against Sunak who seems sane and relatively competent but the first thing many Tory members see about him and what they consider to be most important about him is his skin colour.
Edit: if there's more than one nominee, will there be debates?
Many in bot world are very serious about their racism. Usually in Moscow, towards Ukrainians.
Anyone who might otherwise spur you to think about what you haven't thought about so far must be a Russian agent, right.
That kind of attitude infests the internet: not the Russian theme so much, but the one-liner insult thing. "Don't make me think, you woker/bot/poohead/etc. We all know your type." GTFU.
You are just so fucking obvious! Point and laugh at the guy in Moscow who doesn't bribe his manager enough to avoid the dead of night slot....
Night all. It's been an exciting day of apparently fruitless Boris ramping, and I'm just settling down under a giant head of Ramses VI in the British Museum for what will no doubt be an excruciatingly uncomfortable night's sleep.
Lol are you on a protest in there ? Or a curator ?
Night all. It's been an exciting day of apparently fruitless Boris ramping, and I'm just settling down under a giant head of Ramses VI in the British Museum for what will no doubt be an excruciatingly uncomfortable night's sleep.
Lol are you on a protest in there ? Or a curator ?
Night all. It's been an exciting day of apparently fruitless Boris ramping, and I'm just settling down under a giant head of Ramses VI in the British Museum for what will no doubt be an excruciatingly uncomfortable night's sleep.
Lol are you on a protest in there ? Or a curator ?
So, Guido thinks Johnson has 74 backers but that quite a few of these are party officials who have to remain publicly neutral. Question - if they have to remain publicly neutral, can they still nominate Johnson? They can only nominate him if the committee doesn't publish the list of nominators. If it does and if they can't, their support doesn't help him reach 100.
I think it’s a secret ballot/nomination.
Yes, aiui only the top two nominators are named, and after that, of course, the ballots are secret. However, many MPs are declaring their intentions on Twitter and to the various compilers of spreadsheets.
Hmm. That is perhaps ambiguous and, more importantly, could be wrong, since I cannot find any report of the 1922's rules apart from the brief announcement after Liz Truss resigned.
In her instructive account of how the US government often failed against COVID, Dr. Deborah Birx says she had to guard against showing anger because she believed that would lead to her being dismissed as a hysterical woman.
More generally, I would say that, in the US, if you want to insult a man, you call him a coward, and if you want to insult a woman you attack her looks. (As Trump did with Birx, recently.) Both kinds of attacks may be unfair, sexist, whatever, but they do fit the way many people think.
She should have been dismissed as an incompetent ninny as a public health "leader".
Night all. It's been an exciting day of apparently fruitless Boris ramping, and I'm just settling down under a giant head of Ramses VI in the British Museum for what will no doubt be an excruciatingly uncomfortable night's sleep.
Lol are you on a protest in there ? Or a curator ?
Night all. It's been an exciting day of apparently fruitless Boris ramping, and I'm just settling down under a giant head of Ramses VI in the British Museum for what will no doubt be an excruciatingly uncomfortable night's sleep.
Lol are you on a protest in there ? Or a curator ?
"Young friends" sleepover with my nearly 9yo.
Okay you are officially the coolest Dad on the internet tonight. Sleep well.
Night all. It's been an exciting day of apparently fruitless Boris ramping, and I'm just settling down under a giant head of Ramses VI in the British Museum for what will no doubt be an excruciatingly uncomfortable night's sleep.
Lol are you on a protest in there ? Or a curator ?
The Ukranian evacuation of Mykolaev seems odd given they're pressing on the front foot toward Kherson. I wouldn't have thought a Russian reversal could possibly take place that quickly even if the Ukranian forces push past their optimal culmination point. I mean either Kherson nor Mykolaev are comfortable places to be but an evacuation order hasn't been put in place in any Ukranian held city before now.
Night all. It's been an exciting day of apparently fruitless Boris ramping, and I'm just settling down under a giant head of Ramses VI in the British Museum for what will no doubt be an excruciatingly uncomfortable night's sleep.
Im sure Boris does have over 100 backers, its just only 50 of them are MPs
I'm sure he's pretty close to 100 among MPs, maybe 10-15 out. The vocal fools and non vocal fools gets him that many alone, so only takes a few more, if he can persuade he still has his mojo.
Apparently Braverman will back whoever allows her to set up a new dept which can oversee weekly executions of migrants .
She seems to think that two weeks as HS means she’s now a big beast in the Tory party .
Badenoch is practically a big beast off the back what might be a flash in the pan role in a leadership election. Hunt was a veteran but no longer a big beast but suddenly is again. Life is strange.
Even if it was not a case of stupidity the membership has been proven demonstrably wrong. They shouldn't get prissy about that, mistakes happen - Sunak might be a lightweight but picking Truss clearly was an error, being stubborn about that because their feelings are hurt by the truth wont help.
The Ukranian evacuation of Mykolaev seems odd given they're pressing on the front foot toward Kherson. I wouldn't have thought a Russian reversal could possibly take place that quickly even if the Ukranian forces push past their optimal culmination point. I mean either Kherson nor Mykolaev are comfortable places to be but an evacuation order hasn't been put in place in any Ukranian held city before now.
On Russian TV one of the usual nutters claimed that Ukraine had a nuclear weapon and were going to detonate it in Mykolaiv as a false flag.
Perhaps they are worried about the Russians doing something stupid, or perhaps there's no prospect them having power and water for a while.
Johnson now up to 58 names and 42 anonymous whips now on Guido.
(Ok that last bit was a lie but I am sure it won't be long.)
..
Close but not quite would probably be very disruptive. Boris loyalists would instantly cause problems and stir up the members as they were denied by a stitch up - before it was obvious he'd have adequate MP backers easily some of thtm moaned that way in 2019.
Even if it was not a case of stupidity the membership has been proven demonstrably wrong. They shouldn't get prissy about that, mistakes happen - Sunak might be a lightweight but picking Truss clearly was an error, being stubborn about that because their feelings are hurt by the truth wont help.
Sunak got 43% with the membership, higher than most people expected.
Even if it was not a case of stupidity the membership has been proven demonstrably wrong. They shouldn't get prissy about that, mistakes happen - Sunak might be a lightweight but picking Truss clearly was an error, being stubborn about that because their feelings are hurt by the truth wont help.
Sunak got 43% with the membership, higher than most people expected.
Quite respectable. The membership were simply bewitched by what they thought was the second coming (of Thatcher, that is).
The meeting between Sunak and Johnson went on for a long time which certainly makes one nervous as to what they might have cooked up .
I would be astonished if Sunak was to drop out to back Johnson . I might be completely wrong but what if they’ve decided to back Mordaunt as the unity candidate .
I felt overwhelming depressed this evening with the state of the world and my marriage so decided to watch Primary Colours on the iPlayer. It doesn’t sugarcoat how politics can affect people but I did find it nostalgic to remember a time when politics didn’t come with existential dread attached. I miss the time when you might really care if a particular party won but you didn’t need to worry that democracy would be damaged or we’d end up in a world war or a bitter recession if they didn’t. Maybe that’s depression or nostalgia talking but it was nice to escape into the politics of the past for a bit.
The Ukranian evacuation of Mykolaev seems odd given they're pressing on the front foot toward Kherson. I wouldn't have thought a Russian reversal could possibly take place that quickly even if the Ukranian forces push past their optimal culmination point. I mean either Kherson nor Mykolaev are comfortable places to be but an evacuation order hasn't been put in place in any Ukranian held city before now.
Is Ukraine still on the front foot in Kherson? I'm not sure it's clear either way, they haven't announced that they took more territory in a while and they seem to have attempted a bunch of attacks that didn't go well.
The Ukranian evacuation of Mykolaev seems odd given they're pressing on the front foot toward Kherson. I wouldn't have thought a Russian reversal could possibly take place that quickly even if the Ukranian forces push past their optimal culmination point. I mean either Kherson nor Mykolaev are comfortable places to be but an evacuation order hasn't been put in place in any Ukranian held city before now.
Is Ukraine still on the front foot in Kherson? I'm not sure it's clear either way, they haven't announced that they took more territory in a while and they seem to have attempted a bunch of attacks that didn't go well.
The Russians are evacuating from Kherson. The probable suggestion is that they are going to repeat 1941, and blow the dam.
The Ukranian evacuation of Mykolaev seems odd given they're pressing on the front foot toward Kherson. I wouldn't have thought a Russian reversal could possibly take place that quickly even if the Ukranian forces push past their optimal culmination point. I mean either Kherson nor Mykolaev are comfortable places to be but an evacuation order hasn't been put in place in any Ukranian held city before now.
Is Ukraine still on the front foot in Kherson? I'm not sure it's clear either way, they haven't announced that they took more territory in a while and they seem to have attempted a bunch of attacks that didn't go well.
The Russians are evacuating from Kherson. The probable suggestion is that they are going to repeat 1941, and blow the dam.
Ostensibly they're evacuating civilians. This could be a cover for a full military evacuation, or they might just be trying to free up the limited supply capacity so they have more for the military.
The Ukranian evacuation of Mykolaev seems odd given they're pressing on the front foot toward Kherson. I wouldn't have thought a Russian reversal could possibly take place that quickly even if the Ukranian forces push past their optimal culmination point. I mean either Kherson nor Mykolaev are comfortable places to be but an evacuation order hasn't been put in place in any Ukranian held city before now.
Is Ukraine still on the front foot in Kherson? I'm not sure it's clear either way, they haven't announced that they took more territory in a while and they seem to have attempted a bunch of attacks that didn't go well.
The Russians are evacuating from Kherson. The probable suggestion is that they are going to repeat 1941, and blow the dam.
Ostensibly they're evacuating civilians. This could be a cover for a full military evacuation, or they might just be trying to free up the limited supply capacity so they have more for the military.
The situation is confusing because if Ukraine is making progress it's in a place called "Mylove" which is really hard to search for on Twitter
The Ukranian evacuation of Mykolaev seems odd given they're pressing on the front foot toward Kherson. I wouldn't have thought a Russian reversal could possibly take place that quickly even if the Ukranian forces push past their optimal culmination point. I mean either Kherson nor Mykolaev are comfortable places to be but an evacuation order hasn't been put in place in any Ukranian held city before now.
What's your source for Ukraine evacuating Mykolaiv? All I could find was a fake WarMonitor account.
The meeting between Sunak and Johnson went on for a long time which certainly makes one nervous as to what they might have cooked up .
I would be astonished if Sunak was to drop out to back Johnson . I might be completely wrong but what if they’ve decided to back Mordaunt as the unity candidate .
Well agreed all round. I can't see why Sunak would bother to compromise with any of them but he will need to include the Right somehow.
Bringing Johnson on board could be highly toxic. After all, these two were in Nos 10 and 11 during partygate and that would return at the next election, whatever the tories might wish otherwise.
The Mordaunt suggestion is intriguing but I still find it a bit bizarre. She's miles behind Sunak.
I got criticised for suggesting a while back that the tory MPs were not ready to have another female leader just yet so soon after Theresa May. This came from someone close to the events. Liz Truss, who was not supported by her MPs, has not helped the cause.
Comments
That kind of attitude infests the internet: not the Russian theme so much, but the one-liner insult thing. "Don't make me think, you woker/bot/poohead/etc. We all know your type." GTFU.
"The impact of recent government policies on UK financial markets has been like watching a drunken dynamite fisherman. An erratic and poorly coordinated event is shortly followed by a violent explosion in the liquid pool of assets that is the gilt market. As the ocean boils, the ecosystem within it suffocates. Fortunately, a majority of our portfolio is far enough away from the blast zone to have avoided the worst of the fallout, but frustratingly not all of it."
"It is exciting to be able to invest into the gilt market again, after many years of being priced out. It is a natural asset for a conservative sterling investor to hold. However, our excitement is tinged with a sense of regret that the recent disruption will have long term negative consequences for the UK. It is unwise to go dynamite fishing when drunk. Not only do you indiscriminately kill everything in the sea, but you might end up in advertently blowing up your own boat."
In full:
https://www.capitalgearingtrust.com/download/quarterreport/
Question - if they have to remain publicly neutral, can they still nominate Johnson? They can only nominate him if the committee doesn't publish the list of nominators. If it does and if they can't, their support doesn't help him reach 100.
Made me chuckle.
1) Sunak 137
2) Sunak's sooty puppet 113
3) Boris 105
Boris
1922 exec * 2
A Whip * 8
ANON * 2
Sunak
ANON * 4
Mordaunt
1922 exec * 1
ANON * 2
I grabbed Guido's sheet before he further redacted it. But subsequent ANONs are obviously ANON
(I know your posts and realise the implication wasn’t intentional - newcomers might not)
It's too late to edit so I'll add some context.
https://artworks.thetvdb.com/banners/fanart/original/74461-1.jpg
14/1
Maybe Boris & Rishi have concluded the country and the party are both fucked.
Let the amateur take the blame.
& I do only mean a couple of quid.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FYbavuReVF4
I mean either Kherson nor Mykolaev are comfortable places to be but an evacuation order hasn't been put in place in any Ukranian held city before now.
Perhaps they are worried about the Russians doing something stupid, or perhaps there's no prospect them having power and water for a while.
Hopefully it is the latter (still not good).
I would be astonished if Sunak was to drop out to back Johnson . I might be completely wrong but what if they’ve decided to back Mordaunt as the unity candidate .
Bringing Johnson on board could be highly toxic. After all, these two were in Nos 10 and 11 during partygate and that would return at the next election, whatever the tories might wish otherwise.
The Mordaunt suggestion is intriguing but I still find it a bit bizarre. She's miles behind Sunak.
I got criticised for suggesting a while back that the tory MPs were not ready to have another female leader just yet so soon after Theresa May. This came from someone close to the events. Liz Truss, who was not supported by her MPs, has not helped the cause.