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The tectonic plates appear to be shifting – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 3 in General
The tectonic plates appear to be shifting – politicalbetting.com

Perhaps the most significant bit of today – Rishi getting public backing from the Right of the Tory party. Lord FrostKemi BadenochDavid DavisNeeded to back up his ‘unity’ pitchNow… all eyes on Suella Braverman

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • First like Sunak.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148
    edited October 22
    Sunak to be Tory leader by coronation by Monday night like Howard 2003 and PM by coronation by Tuesday night like Brown 2007

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,942
    HYUFD said:

    Sunak to be leader by coronation by Monday night like Howard 2003.

    Then the impossible job begins....
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,569
    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    10m
    Some Tory donors being told Boris will not run.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,286
    Boris Johnson’s ambition is fulfilled: win or lose, we’re all talking about him
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/oct/22/boris-johnson-ambition-tory-party-prime-minister
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    HYUFD said:

    Sunak to be Tory leader by coronation by Monday night like Howard 2003 and PM by coronation by Tuesday night like Brown 2007

    Then the polls close a bit and once we get the first lead under 15 Labour twitter goes into hyperventilating meltdown
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    10m
    Some Tory donors being told Boris will not run.

    Big Nige will be tapping Cruddas hard
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,806
    Getting it sorted on Monday would be a good outcome. Get on with clearing out the weak cabinet and whips office.

    No need to drag it out any longer than necessary
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,942

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    10m
    Some Tory donors being told Boris will not run.

    Going to be interesting what BS narrative will be spun about why after dashing back from Carribbean he doesn't run.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,154
    seen as we have HYUFD on , OT but i am hosting a murder mystery halloween party next weekend and playing Lurch the Butler with other guests being Mortician adams. Gomex Adams ,Dracula, bride of Dracula , Poison Ivy (?) , Cruella de ville ,Frankenstein etc ! Any tips for acting in character ?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 8,472

    If Sunak does become Prime Minister I'm really looking forward to the lefties moaning that Sunak really doesn't count as an ethnic minority.

    Wrong type of darkie/superficially brown.

    He has come up short on most measures.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,552

    HYUFD said:

    Sunak to be Tory leader by coronation by Monday night like Howard 2003 and PM by coronation by Tuesday night like Brown 2007

    Then the polls close a bit and once we get the first lead under 15 Labour twitter goes into hyperventilating meltdown
    I’m fully expecting a big jump for the Tories .

    So I wouldn’t be shocked . I’m confident though that Starmer will beat Sunak at the next GE.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,607

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    10m
    Some Tory donors being told Boris will not run.

    Yep: Sorry Oleg, Pyotr et al.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,176

    If Sunak does become Prime Minister I'm really looking forward to the lefties moaning that Sunak really doesn't count as an ethnic minority.

    Wrong type of darkie/superficially brown.

    We're going to get a lot of that crap, sadly.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,569

    If Sunak does become Prime Minister I'm really looking forward to the lefties moaning that Sunak really doesn't count as an ethnic minority.

    Wrong type of darkie/superficially brown.

    You should be more interested in whether Tory Racists will vote for a brown PM
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648

    If Sunak does become Prime Minister I'm really looking forward to the lefties moaning that Sunak really doesn't count as an ethnic minority.

    Wrong type of darkie/superficially brown.

    Will he get the all important Rupa Huq seal of authenticity?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,736

    If Sunak does become Prime Minister I'm really looking forward to the lefties moaning that Sunak really doesn't count as an ethnic minority.

    Wrong type of darkie/superficially brown.

    We're going to get a lot of that crap, sadly.
    Indeed. But that's TSE for you.
  • alednamalednam Posts: 172
    I think Sunak's supporters are plentiful, and very positive about him. And I like to think that Johnson will be humiliated (Of course he is incapable of feeling shame, so no-one will need to feel sorry for him.)
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,321

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    10m
    Some Tory donors being told Boris will not run.

    Yep: Sorry Oleg, Pyotr et al.
    We were reliably informed he had 150 backers this morning. I mean, it's still possible...
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    Omnium said:

    If Sunak does become Prime Minister I'm really looking forward to the lefties moaning that Sunak really doesn't count as an ethnic minority.

    Wrong type of darkie/superficially brown.

    He has come up short on most measures.
    War with Brobdingnag by Friday i'm told
  • (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    10m
    Some Tory donors being told Boris will not run.

    Yep: Sorry Oleg, Pyotr et al.
    We were reliably informed he had 150 backers this morning. I mean, it's still possible...
    Indeed but I hope nobody will ever forget the ramping by Guido Fawkes.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855

    If Sunak does become Prime Minister I'm really looking forward to the lefties moaning that Sunak really doesn't count as an ethnic minority.

    Wrong type of darkie/superficially brown.

    Will he get the all important Rupa Huq seal of authenticity?
    I would have thought she'd hate him given he's a Hindu.

    Wouldn't that make him also the first PM to avow a religion other than Christianity?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 10,454
    Nigelb said:

    Boris Johnson’s ambition is fulfilled: win or lose, we’re all talking about him
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/oct/22/boris-johnson-ambition-tory-party-prime-minister

    The Cult of No Publicity Is Bad Publicity.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    If Sunak does become Prime Minister I'm really looking forward to the lefties moaning that Sunak really doesn't count as an ethnic minority.

    Wrong type of darkie/superficially brown.

    You should be more interested in whether Tory Racists will vote for a brown PM
    I will, and I have always voted Foaming Bigot like my father before me and his father before him.

    The concern of a Corbynite for the sinister racist secret at the heart of another party is fucking touching, it really is.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 11,000

    HYUFD said:

    Sunak to be Tory leader by coronation by Monday night like Howard 2003 and PM by coronation by Tuesday night like Brown 2007

    Then the polls close a bit and once we get the first lead under 15 Labour twitter goes into hyperventilating meltdown
    Seriously?

    It would be astonishing if there wasn't a substantial step forward for the Conservatives but going from 15% to 25% isn't exactly an election-winning position, is it?

    As it seems I have to repeat to you and some of the others on here, the one thing you won't be seeing from Labour, the LDs or any other non-Conservative party is complacency. They know every vote has to be won and nothing can be assumed.

    35 point poll leads are nice to look at but totally meaningless.

    I suspect Labour are well prepared for a Sunak administration and have their attack lines ready. I also think they'll be much happier facing Sunak than Johnson - let's face it, in Sunak and Starmer there's not much charisma. It would be ideal for a Farage or Johnson to be leading a breakaway conservative movement.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,607
    Speaking of bizarre racial statements, an overseas based Scots Nat uses the term “House Jock” occasionally, but when challenged refuses to elaborate.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,942
    edited October 22
    UFC fighter of Iranian descent currently giving a passioned speech about plight of those protesting in Iran, that got booed (being held in Abu Dhabi)
  • alednamalednam Posts: 172
    Nigelb said:

    Boris Johnson’s ambition is fulfilled: win or lose, we’re all talking about him
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/oct/22/boris-johnson-ambition-tory-party-prime-minister

    But provided he doesn't win, it'll be as well we were all talking about him. The story will hardly be to his credit.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882
    This is a great thread by @TSE although not I suspect the Mordaunt bit.

    I reckon the 235 to 120 could be very close to the final tally. Under those circumstances it's inconceivable that Johnson could lead his party in parliament. The real trouble would come if he still wanted the members to decide ... and won. Then we're in chaos-multiplied.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,607
    I expect polling to return to the status Truss ante under Sunak.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882

    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    10m
    Some Tory donors being told Boris will not run.

    Yep: Sorry Oleg, Pyotr et al.
    We were reliably informed he had 150 backers this morning. I mean, it's still possible...
    Indeed but I hope nobody will ever forget the ramping by Guido Fawkes.
    Quite!

    Paul Staines is a nasty piece of work, frankly.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    ydoethur said:

    If Sunak does become Prime Minister I'm really looking forward to the lefties moaning that Sunak really doesn't count as an ethnic minority.

    Wrong type of darkie/superficially brown.

    Will he get the all important Rupa Huq seal of authenticity?
    I would have thought she'd hate him given he's a Hindu.

    Wouldn't that make him also the first PM to avow a religion other than Christianity?
    If he becomes PM on Monday then he would become PM on Diwali.
    My annual reminder that I missed Trafalgar Day.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,204

    If Sunak does become Prime Minister I'm really looking forward to the lefties moaning that Sunak really doesn't count as an ethnic minority.

    Wrong type of darkie/superficially brown.

    NYT readers are going to be extremely confused that the racist UK led by the racist Tory party have elected Sunak....
    Not a proper racial minority. Obviously.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148
    ydoethur said:

    If Sunak does become Prime Minister I'm really looking forward to the lefties moaning that Sunak really doesn't count as an ethnic minority.

    Wrong type of darkie/superficially brown.

    Will he get the all important Rupa Huq seal of authenticity?
    I would have thought she'd hate him given he's a Hindu.

    Wouldn't that make him also the first PM to avow a religion other than Christianity?
    Indeed but Sunak went to Winchester, founded by the Bishop of Winchester and is more of a traditional Tory in background than Truss was
  • If Sunak does become Prime Minister I'm really looking forward to the lefties moaning that Sunak really doesn't count as an ethnic minority.

    Wrong type of darkie/superficially brown.

    NYT readers are going to be extremely confused that the racist UK led by the racist Tory party have elected Sunak....
    I've already written the PB thread if Sunak becomes PM.

    'Enoch Powell was right, the darkies do now have the whip hand over white British people.'
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855

    If Sunak does become Prime Minister I'm really looking forward to the lefties moaning that Sunak really doesn't count as an ethnic minority.

    Wrong type of darkie/superficially brown.

    NYT readers are going to be extremely confused
    And a bear will shit in the woods judging by most of their recent spectacular balls ups.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882
    Nigelb said:

    Boris Johnson’s ambition is fulfilled: win or lose, we’re all talking about him
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/oct/22/boris-johnson-ambition-tory-party-prime-minister

    Well maybe but news moves on fast. I won't re-hash the fish n' chip analogy but I'm not sure a week, a month, a year from now this will look particularly favourable for Johnson.

    I loathe him, I'll admit, and it will amuse me if his mad dash across the Atlantic, followed by mega-ramp, is all to show that he is no longer the big fish he thought he was. Except when wrapped in newspaper.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    edited October 22

    I expect polling to return to the status Truss ante under Sunak.

    I think it gets under 20 lead but higher than pre Truss as permanent damage has been done. 10 will be low end/opinium with the average mid high teens imo
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,552
    edited October 22
    How about this for a scenario . Bozo gets just over a 100 nominations with Sunak miles ahead and Penny M in third .

    The fear of absolute carnage if the members vote for him pushes some of his support to jump ship in the next vote .
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148

    seen as we have HYUFD on , OT but i am hosting a murder mystery halloween party next weekend and playing Lurch the Butler with other guests being Mortician adams. Gomex Adams ,Dracula, bride of Dracula , Poison Ivy (?) , Cruella de ville ,Frankenstein etc ! Any tips for acting in character ?

    Just follow some politicians, May would make an excellent Morticia, Mandelson Dracula, Priti Patel Cruella de Ville, Braverman Poison Ivy, Raab Frankenstein etc
  • alednamalednam Posts: 172

    If Sunak does become Prime Minister I'm really looking forward to the lefties moaning that Sunak really doesn't count as an ethnic minority.

    Wrong type of darkie/superficially brown.

    I think the Labour MP's underlying point was that if BUT ONLY IF you're of a certain social class (and wear expensive clothes and sound a certain way), then it doesn't matter much whether you're black or brown.
    The point was badly stated, and it was right that she was reprimanded by her Party for saying what she did.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 8,882

    If Sunak does become Prime Minister I'm really looking forward to the lefties moaning that Sunak really doesn't count as an ethnic minority.

    Wrong type of darkie/superficially brown.

    NYT readers are going to be extremely confused that the racist UK led by the racist Tory party have elected Sunak....
    I've already written the PB thread if Sunak becomes PM.

    'Enoch Powell was right, the darkies do now have the whip hand over white British people.'
    Did Enoch Powell not think that Indians were racially superior to Caucasians?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148

    If Sunak does become Prime Minister I'm really looking forward to the lefties moaning that Sunak really doesn't count as an ethnic minority.

    Wrong type of darkie/superficially brown.

    NYT readers are going to be extremely confused that the racist UK led by the racist Tory party have elected Sunak....
    I've already written the PB thread if Sunak becomes PM.

    'Enoch Powell was right, the darkies do now have the whip hand over white British people.'
    Look we don't need you trying to provoke racism in the redwall, Sunak will be a perfectly decent PM for all Britons
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648

    I expect polling to return to the status Truss ante under Sunak.

    I think it gets under 20 lead but higher than pre Truss as permanent damage has been done. 10 will be low end/opinium with the average mid high teens imo
    Having said that JL Partners......
    Voting intentions conducted by @JLPartnersPolls for Labour against every possible Tory leader…

    Current:
    🌹LAB: 51%
    🌳CON: 25%

    Johnson:
    🌹LAB: 46%
    🌳CON: 36%

    Sunak:
    🌹LAB: 46%
    🌳CON: 35%

    Mordaunt:
    🌹LAB: 50%
    🌳CON: 28%
    (Caveat in that she’s widely unknown)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 81,468
    HYUFD said:

    Sunak to be Tory leader by coronation by Monday night like Howard 2003 and PM by coronation by Tuesday night like Brown 2007

    Boris and co to be obstructive immediately.

    Not like Truss btw. Mps didnt have a chance to show loyalty before she torched the economy.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882

    If Sunak does become Prime Minister I'm really looking forward to the lefties moaning that Sunak really doesn't count as an ethnic minority.

    Wrong type of darkie/superficially brown.

    NYT readers are going to be extremely confused that the racist UK led by the racist Tory party have elected Sunak....
    I've already written the PB thread if Sunak becomes PM.

    'Enoch Powell was right, the darkies do now have the whip hand over white British people.'
    Why are you going on about race like this? I don't know anyone in my circles that would speak about things in these terms, let alone think them, except my friend who is a card carrying member of the Conservative Party.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,366
    nico679 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sunak to be Tory leader by coronation by Monday night like Howard 2003 and PM by coronation by Tuesday night like Brown 2007

    Then the polls close a bit and once we get the first lead under 15 Labour twitter goes into hyperventilating meltdown
    I’m fully expecting a big jump for the Tories .

    So I wouldn’t be shocked . I’m confident though that Starmer will beat Sunak at the next GE.
    I’m still picking up the pieces from the last bounce that was predicted on here.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,154
    HYUFD said:

    seen as we have HYUFD on , OT but i am hosting a murder mystery halloween party next weekend and playing Lurch the Butler with other guests being Mortician adams. Gomex Adams ,Dracula, bride of Dracula , Poison Ivy (?) , Cruella de ville ,Frankenstein etc ! Any tips for acting in character ?

    Just follow some politicians, May would make an excellent Morticia, Mandelson Dracula, Priti Patel Cruella de Ville, Braverman Poison Ivy, Raab Frankenstein etc
    ha excellent typecasting!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,942
    edited October 22

    I expect polling to return to the status Truss ante under Sunak.

    I think it gets under 20 lead but higher than pre Truss as permanent damage has been done. 10 will be low end/opinium with the average mid high teens imo
    Having said that JL Partners......
    Voting intentions conducted by @JLPartnersPolls for Labour against every possible Tory leader…

    Current:
    🌹LAB: 51%
    🌳CON: 25%

    Johnson:
    🌹LAB: 46%
    🌳CON: 36%

    Sunak:
    🌹LAB: 46%
    🌳CON: 35%

    Mordaunt:
    🌹LAB: 50%
    🌳CON: 28%
    (Caveat in that she’s widely unknown)
    10-11 points down would be a remarkable turn around (not sure i believe it).
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,736
    nico679 said:

    How about this for a scenario . Bozo gets just over a 100 nominations with Sunak miles ahead and Penny M in third .

    The fear of absolute carnage if the members vote for him pushes some of his support to jump ship in the next vote .

    The next vote wouldn't matter, Mordaunt would be out, both candidates could go to the members if they wished.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882
    DougSeal said:

    nico679 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sunak to be Tory leader by coronation by Monday night like Howard 2003 and PM by coronation by Tuesday night like Brown 2007

    Then the polls close a bit and once we get the first lead under 15 Labour twitter goes into hyperventilating meltdown
    I’m fully expecting a big jump for the Tories .

    So I wouldn’t be shocked . I’m confident though that Starmer will beat Sunak at the next GE.
    I’m still picking up the pieces from the last bounce that was predicted on here.
    Yeah it's a hebdominal thread header on here.

    Rishi won't get much of a bounce. But he might slowly claw back some credibility and so limit losses at the next GE.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148

    I expect polling to return to the status Truss ante under Sunak.

    I think it gets under 20 lead but higher than pre Truss as permanent damage has been done. 10 will be low end/opinium with the average mid high teens imo
    Having said that JL Partners......
    Voting intentions conducted by @JLPartnersPolls for Labour against every possible Tory leader…

    Current:
    🌹LAB: 51%
    🌳CON: 25%

    Johnson:
    🌹LAB: 46%
    🌳CON: 36%

    Sunak:
    🌹LAB: 46%
    🌳CON: 35%

    Mordaunt:
    🌹LAB: 50%
    🌳CON: 28%
    (Caveat in that she’s widely unknown)
    So Boris does fractionally better than Rishi there then, though both do miles better against Labour than Truss does or Mordaunt would
  • If Sunak does become Prime Minister I'm really looking forward to the lefties moaning that Sunak really doesn't count as an ethnic minority.

    Wrong type of darkie/superficially brown.

    NYT readers are going to be extremely confused that the racist UK led by the racist Tory party have elected Sunak....
    I've already written the PB thread if Sunak becomes PM.

    'Enoch Powell was right, the darkies do now have the whip hand over white British people.'
    I will be immensely proud if the conservative party elect Sunak as their leader and first Asian PM
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,977
    It's possible the Truss interregnum will have done the Tories a favour in the long run by lessening the charge of betrayal against Sunak as well as subduing the people who weren't happy with his fiscal approach. He stands a better chance of uniting the party now than he would have done if he'd won the first time around.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148
    edited October 22

    If Sunak does become Prime Minister I'm really looking forward to the lefties moaning that Sunak really doesn't count as an ethnic minority.

    Wrong type of darkie/superficially brown.

    NYT readers are going to be extremely confused that the racist UK led by the racist Tory party have elected Sunak....
    I've already written the PB thread if Sunak becomes PM.

    'Enoch Powell was right, the darkies do now have the whip hand over white British people.'
    I will be immensely proud if the conservative party elect Sunak as their leader and first Asian PM
    First Jewish heritage, woman and non white PM then all Tory.

    Labour can only get the first openly LGBT PM now, maybe Streeting
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,286
    Heathener said:

    Nigelb said:

    Boris Johnson’s ambition is fulfilled: win or lose, we’re all talking about him
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/oct/22/boris-johnson-ambition-tory-party-prime-minister

    Well maybe but news moves on fast. I won't re-hash the fish n' chip analogy but I'm not sure a week, a month, a year from now this will look particularly favourable for Johnson.

    I loathe him, I'll admit, and it will amuse me if his mad dash across the Atlantic, followed by mega-ramp, is all to show that he is no longer the big fish he thought he was. Except when wrapped in newspaper.
    None of which really matters if you have something of a pathological need for attention.
    Long term strategy really isn’t his thing.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    If Sunak does become Prime Minister I'm really looking forward to the lefties moaning that Sunak really doesn't count as an ethnic minority.

    Wrong type of darkie/superficially brown.

    Will he get the all important Rupa Huq seal of authenticity?
    I would have thought she'd hate him given he's a Hindu.

    Wouldn't that make him also the first PM to avow a religion other than Christianity?
    Indeed but Sunak went to Winchester, founded by the Bishop of Winchester and is more of a traditional Tory in background than Truss was
    To be a little more specific, it was founded by the 48th Bishop of Winchester. Not by Tim Dakin or whoever his successor is now he's been fired.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Heathener said:

    If Sunak does become Prime Minister I'm really looking forward to the lefties moaning that Sunak really doesn't count as an ethnic minority.

    Wrong type of darkie/superficially brown.

    NYT readers are going to be extremely confused that the racist UK led by the racist Tory party have elected Sunak....
    I've already written the PB thread if Sunak becomes PM.

    'Enoch Powell was right, the darkies do now have the whip hand over white British people.'
    Why are you going on about race like this? I don't know anyone in my circles that would speak about things in these terms, let alone think them, except my friend who is a card carrying member of the Conservative Party.
    You have got think and speak back to front, and a logical disconnect between what TSE writes vs what your "circles" have to say about it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,942
    edited October 22
    I actually think it is a hugely positive thing that a non-white or a woman being elected to some of the highest offices in the land doesn't actually really get much press focusing upon that these days.

    Team twat, i mean Truss, being a woman, a black guy etc, the issue was their policies not their gender or race.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    If Sunak does become Prime Minister I'm really looking forward to the lefties moaning that Sunak really doesn't count as an ethnic minority.

    Wrong type of darkie/superficially brown.

    Will he get the all important Rupa Huq seal of authenticity?
    I would have thought she'd hate him given he's a Hindu.

    Wouldn't that make him also the first PM to avow a religion other than Christianity?
    Indeed but Sunak went to Winchester, founded by the Bishop of Winchester and is more of a traditional Tory in background than Truss was
    To be a little more specific, it was founded by the 48th Bishop of Winchester. Not by Tim Dakin or whoever his successor is now he's been fired.
    There are 47 known BoWs before Willie Wykeham? Are you sure?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,607

    If Sunak does become Prime Minister I'm really looking forward to the lefties moaning that Sunak really doesn't count as an ethnic minority.

    Wrong type of darkie/superficially brown.

    NYT readers are going to be extremely confused that the racist UK led by the racist Tory party have elected Sunak....
    I've already written the PB thread if Sunak becomes PM.

    'Enoch Powell was right, the darkies do now have the whip hand over white British people.'
    I will be immensely proud if the conservative party elect Sunak as their leader and first Asian PM
    Sure, although you’ve been castigating them as a pack of lunatics all week.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882

    I actually think it is a hugely positive thing that a non-white or a woman being elected to some of the highest offices in the land doesn't actually really get much press focusing upon that these days.

    Quite

    Until I saw TSE's comment I hadn't even considered the matter.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 10,454
    FYI (also btw) believe that a contender - up until this week anyway - for shortest interval between fall and rise of a Prime Minister, is William Lyon Mackenzie King (Liberal) of Canada.

    Who was forced from office (under at least one interpretation) on June 28, 1926. And was back as PM (after constitutional crisis between WLMK and Gov. Gen Byng) on September 25, 1926.

    By way of contrast, when incumbent Liberal PM Pierre Trudeau left office on June 4, 1979 it took him until March 3, 1980 to get back in.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,552
    edited October 22
    The alleged anonymous Johnson supporters are of no help if they don’t officially nominate him . So Guidos inflated score is irrelevant .

    Unless he can get to the 100 without them then the anonymous are worth zip at this stage .
  • I actually think it is a hugely positive thing that a non-white or a woman being elected to some of the highest offices in the land doesn't actually really get much press focusing upon that these days.

    I'm in a few Tory association WhatsApp groups, some Red Wall.

    All the bile raised towards Sunak is all to do with the betrayal of Boris Johnson, not his skin colour.

    We had four non white people in a row as Chancellor, skin colour hardly mentioned, all the focus was on policies.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,551
    A law breaker Vs a tax dodger

    RIP Tories!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855
    Ishmael_Z said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    If Sunak does become Prime Minister I'm really looking forward to the lefties moaning that Sunak really doesn't count as an ethnic minority.

    Wrong type of darkie/superficially brown.

    Will he get the all important Rupa Huq seal of authenticity?
    I would have thought she'd hate him given he's a Hindu.

    Wouldn't that make him also the first PM to avow a religion other than Christianity?
    Indeed but Sunak went to Winchester, founded by the Bishop of Winchester and is more of a traditional Tory in background than Truss was
    To be a little more specific, it was founded by the 48th Bishop of Winchester. Not by Tim Dakin or whoever his successor is now he's been fired.
    There are 47 known BoWs before Willie Wykeham? Are you sure?
    No, because it's very uncertain whether some of them were Bishop or not, and also whether you count the bishops of Dorchester. But it had been going for over 700 years at that point, so it was at around the halfway stage of its existence. 47 doesn't seem far out.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,321
    GIN1138 said:

    A law breaker Vs a tax dodger

    RIP Tories!

    I wonder if Rishi has used the last few months wisely in that regard.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,977
    Jolyon Maugham thinks that only lawyers have access to the "cultural elite".

    @JolyonMaugham
    If you haven't practiced law you won't have heard the alienating language of the cultural elites - of clubs and school ties, of Classics and Greats, of Opera and Rugby. It is used, sometimes quite deliberately, by some judges to alienate those from the 'wrong' side of the tracks.


    https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1583770349279186944
  • GIN1138 said:

    A law breaker Vs a tax dodger

    RIP Tories!

    Technically speaking, Sunak is also a law breaker.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 6,648
    HYUFD said:

    I expect polling to return to the status Truss ante under Sunak.

    I think it gets under 20 lead but higher than pre Truss as permanent damage has been done. 10 will be low end/opinium with the average mid high teens imo
    Having said that JL Partners......
    Voting intentions conducted by @JLPartnersPolls for Labour against every possible Tory leader…

    Current:
    🌹LAB: 51%
    🌳CON: 25%

    Johnson:
    🌹LAB: 46%
    🌳CON: 36%

    Sunak:
    🌹LAB: 46%
    🌳CON: 35%

    Mordaunt:
    🌹LAB: 50%
    🌳CON: 28%
    (Caveat in that she’s widely unknown)
    So Boris does fractionally better than Rishi there then, though both do miles better against Labour than Truss does or Mordaunt would
    If the Tories manage 35 and certainly 36 in a GE i see no chance of a Lab Majority
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,075
    edited October 22

    If Sunak does become Prime Minister I'm really looking forward to the lefties moaning that Sunak really doesn't count as an ethnic minority.

    Wrong type of darkie/superficially brown.

    NYT readers are going to be extremely confused that the racist UK led by the racist Tory party have elected Sunak....
    I've already written the PB thread if Sunak becomes PM.

    'Enoch Powell was right, the darkies do now have the whip hand over white British people.'
    I will be immensely proud if the conservative party elect Sunak as their leader and first Asian PM
    Sure, although you’ve been castigating them as a pack of lunatics all week.
    I have not been castigating Sunak and I do not use the word lunatic, not least because of its connotation with mental health which my family have suffered from

    I openly admit to condemning Truss and the conservative party for the mess they have made over the last 6 weeks and before but not in the way you describe
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,882
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Heathener said:

    If Sunak does become Prime Minister I'm really looking forward to the lefties moaning that Sunak really doesn't count as an ethnic minority.

    Wrong type of darkie/superficially brown.

    NYT readers are going to be extremely confused that the racist UK led by the racist Tory party have elected Sunak....
    I've already written the PB thread if Sunak becomes PM.

    'Enoch Powell was right, the darkies do now have the whip hand over white British people.'
    Why are you going on about race like this? I don't know anyone in my circles that would speak about things in these terms, let alone think them, except my friend who is a card carrying member of the Conservative Party.
    You have got think and speak back to front
    Yes you're probably right although I liked putting it that way around for ontological reasons.

    On the subject of grammar, it has been bugging me for hours. Shouldn't Guido's spreadsheet be 'Who's backing whom?'
    https://order-order.com/2022/10/21/whos-backing-who-the-spreadsheet-returns/


  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,321

    I actually think it is a hugely positive thing that a non-white or a woman being elected to some of the highest offices in the land doesn't actually really get much press focusing upon that these days.

    I'm in a few Tory association WhatsApp groups, some Red Wall.

    All the bile raised towards Sunak is all to do with the betrayal of Boris Johnson, not his skin colour.

    We had four non white people in a row as Chancellor, skin colour hardly mentioned, all the focus was on policies.
    You would know better than me TSE but are you sure what they're saying matches what they're thinking?

  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 19,600

    It's possible the Truss interregnum will have done the Tories a favour in the long run by lessening the charge of betrayal against Sunak as well as subduing the people who weren't happy with his fiscal approach. He stands a better chance of uniting the party now than he would have done if he'd won the first time around.

    Not sure how it lessens the charge of betrayal. He and his unsavoury parliamentary fanbase have now sabotaged two Prime Ministers in their avowed cause of 'stabilising the markets'.
  • Jolyon Maugham thinks that only lawyers have access to the "cultural elite".

    @JolyonMaugham
    If you haven't practiced law you won't have heard the alienating language of the cultural elites - of clubs and school ties, of Classics and Greats, of Opera and Rugby. It is used, sometimes quite deliberately, by some judges to alienate those from the 'wrong' side of the tracks.


    https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1583770349279186944

    Jolyon seems the like of person who has told me that I've never experienced racism because I was privately educated, the son of a doctor, and earn decent money.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    ydoethur said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:

    ydoethur said:

    If Sunak does become Prime Minister I'm really looking forward to the lefties moaning that Sunak really doesn't count as an ethnic minority.

    Wrong type of darkie/superficially brown.

    Will he get the all important Rupa Huq seal of authenticity?
    I would have thought she'd hate him given he's a Hindu.

    Wouldn't that make him also the first PM to avow a religion other than Christianity?
    Indeed but Sunak went to Winchester, founded by the Bishop of Winchester and is more of a traditional Tory in background than Truss was
    To be a little more specific, it was founded by the 48th Bishop of Winchester. Not by Tim Dakin or whoever his successor is now he's been fired.
    There are 47 known BoWs before Willie Wykeham? Are you sure?
    No, because it's very uncertain whether some of them were Bishop or not, and also whether you count the bishops of Dorchester. But it had been going for over 700 years at that point, so it was at around the halfway stage of its existence. 47 doesn't seem far out.
    Wow.

    Dorchester Dorset or Dorchester Oxon?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,176

    I actually think it is a hugely positive thing that a non-white or a woman being elected to some of the highest offices in the land doesn't actually really get much press focusing upon that these days.

    I'm in a few Tory association WhatsApp groups, some Red Wall.

    All the bile raised towards Sunak is all to do with the betrayal of Boris Johnson, not his skin colour.

    We had four non white people in a row as Chancellor, skin colour hardly mentioned, all the focus was on policies.
    I couldn't give a toss about his skin colour.

    I support Sunak because he's by far the best candidate.

    We need to get beyond this.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,855

    Jolyon Maugham thinks that only lawyers have access to the "cultural elite".

    @JolyonMaugham
    If you haven't practiced law you won't have heard the alienating language of the cultural elites - of clubs and school ties, of Classics and Greats, of Opera and Rugby. It is used, sometimes quite deliberately, by some judges to alienate those from the 'wrong' side of the tracks.


    https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1583770349279186944

    It's a very wiggish view.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,046

    GIN1138 said:

    A law breaker Vs a tax dodger

    RIP Tories!

    Technically speaking, Sunak is also a law breaker.
    And also locked down and spent tens of billions he didn't have and taxed Tory core voters. In fact Sunak's strict advantages over Johnson boil down to the fact that he wasn't in charge, which isn't a great deal different from Truss.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 2,963
    edited October 22
    You're all worried about what people will make of Sunak's skin colour.

    I'm worried that the Daily Star will try and measure his premiership live against some sumac.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,569
    Ishmael_Z said:

    If Sunak does become Prime Minister I'm really looking forward to the lefties moaning that Sunak really doesn't count as an ethnic minority.

    Wrong type of darkie/superficially brown.

    You should be more interested in whether Tory Racists will vote for a brown PM
    I will, and I have always voted Foaming Bigot like my father before me and his father before him.

    The concern of a Corbynite for the sinister racist secret at the heart of another party is fucking touching, it really is.
    Ishmael_Z said:

    If Sunak does become Prime Minister I'm really looking forward to the lefties moaning that Sunak really doesn't count as an ethnic minority.

    Wrong type of darkie/superficially brown.

    You should be more interested in whether Tory Racists will vote for a brown PM
    I will, and I have always voted Foaming Bigot like my father before me and his father before him.

    The concern of a Corbynite for the sinister racist secret at the heart of another party is fucking touching, it really is.
    61 years and now Labour has a hierarchy of racism and the Tories a brown leader..........

    pure coincidence I know.

    For the avoidance of doubt i am not accusing you of being a racist
  • barrykennabarrykenna Posts: 206

    HYUFD said:

    I expect polling to return to the status Truss ante under Sunak.

    I think it gets under 20 lead but higher than pre Truss as permanent damage has been done. 10 will be low end/opinium with the average mid high teens imo
    Having said that JL Partners......
    Voting intentions conducted by @JLPartnersPolls for Labour against every possible Tory leader…

    Current:
    🌹LAB: 51%
    🌳CON: 25%

    Johnson:
    🌹LAB: 46%
    🌳CON: 36%

    Sunak:
    🌹LAB: 46%
    🌳CON: 35%

    Mordaunt:
    🌹LAB: 50%
    🌳CON: 28%
    (Caveat in that she’s widely unknown)
    So Boris does fractionally better than Rishi there then, though both do miles better against Labour than Truss does or Mordaunt would
    If the Tories manage 35 and certainly 36 in a GE i see no chance of a Lab Majority
    The Tories polled a fair bit higher than that in both 1945 and 1966!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,660

    I expect polling to return to the status Truss ante under Sunak.

    I think it gets under 20 lead but higher than pre Truss as permanent damage has been done. 10 will be low end/opinium with the average mid high teens imo
    Having said that JL Partners......
    Voting intentions conducted by @JLPartnersPolls for Labour against every possible Tory leader…

    Current:
    🌹LAB: 51%
    🌳CON: 25%

    Johnson:
    🌹LAB: 46%
    🌳CON: 36%

    Sunak:
    🌹LAB: 46%
    🌳CON: 35%

    Mordaunt:
    🌹LAB: 50%
    🌳CON: 28%
    (Caveat in that she’s widely unknown)
    Hypothetical polling is garbage.
  • I actually think it is a hugely positive thing that a non-white or a woman being elected to some of the highest offices in the land doesn't actually really get much press focusing upon that these days.

    I'm in a few Tory association WhatsApp groups, some Red Wall.

    All the bile raised towards Sunak is all to do with the betrayal of Boris Johnson, not his skin colour.

    We had four non white people in a row as Chancellor, skin colour hardly mentioned, all the focus was on policies.
    You would know better than me TSE but are you sure what they're saying matches what they're thinking?

    These are the same people who moaned about lefty Remoaner Jeremy Hunt becoming Chancellor and praise Kemi Badenoch and want her to be PM.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 42,977

    Jolyon Maugham thinks that only lawyers have access to the "cultural elite".

    @JolyonMaugham
    If you haven't practiced law you won't have heard the alienating language of the cultural elites - of clubs and school ties, of Classics and Greats, of Opera and Rugby. It is used, sometimes quite deliberately, by some judges to alienate those from the 'wrong' side of the tracks.


    https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1583770349279186944

    Jolyon seems the like of person who has told me that I've never experienced racism because I was privately educated, the son of a doctor, and earn decent money.
    That reminds me that he also made a racist comment to Rishi Sunak.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,176
    ydoethur said:

    Jolyon Maugham thinks that only lawyers have access to the "cultural elite".

    @JolyonMaugham
    If you haven't practiced law you won't have heard the alienating language of the cultural elites - of clubs and school ties, of Classics and Greats, of Opera and Rugby. It is used, sometimes quite deliberately, by some judges to alienate those from the 'wrong' side of the tracks.


    https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/1583770349279186944

    It's a very wiggish view.
    And, one that Jolyon Maugham secretly practices himself.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,736
    edited October 22

    I actually think it is a hugely positive thing that a non-white or a woman being elected to some of the highest offices in the land doesn't actually really get much press focusing upon that these days.

    I'm in a few Tory association WhatsApp groups, some Red Wall.

    All the bile raised towards Sunak is all to do with the betrayal of Boris Johnson, not his skin colour.

    We had four non white people in a row as Chancellor, skin colour hardly mentioned, all the focus was on policies.
    You're the one who raised it on this thread.
  • It's possible the Truss interregnum will have done the Tories a favour in the long run by lessening the charge of betrayal against Sunak as well as subduing the people who weren't happy with his fiscal approach. He stands a better chance of uniting the party now than he would have done if he'd won the first time around.

    Not sure how it lessens the charge of betrayal. He and his unsavoury parliamentary fanbase have now sabotaged two Prime Ministers in their avowed cause of 'stabilising the markets'.
    Point of order - the last two prime ministers entirely sabotaged themselves with absolutely no other help whatever
  • I actually think it is a hugely positive thing that a non-white or a woman being elected to some of the highest offices in the land doesn't actually really get much press focusing upon that these days.

    I'm in a few Tory association WhatsApp groups, some Red Wall.

    All the bile raised towards Sunak is all to do with the betrayal of Boris Johnson, not his skin colour.

    We had four non white people in a row as Chancellor, skin colour hardly mentioned, all the focus was on policies.
    I couldn't give a toss about his skin colour.

    I support Sunak because he's by far the best candidate.

    We need to get beyond this.
    It's like when I got married to an English native, it was like whatever.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Heathener said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Heathener said:

    If Sunak does become Prime Minister I'm really looking forward to the lefties moaning that Sunak really doesn't count as an ethnic minority.

    Wrong type of darkie/superficially brown.

    NYT readers are going to be extremely confused that the racist UK led by the racist Tory party have elected Sunak....
    I've already written the PB thread if Sunak becomes PM.

    'Enoch Powell was right, the darkies do now have the whip hand over white British people.'
    Why are you going on about race like this? I don't know anyone in my circles that would speak about things in these terms, let alone think them, except my friend who is a card carrying member of the Conservative Party.
    You have got think and speak back to front
    Yes you're probably right although I liked putting it that way around for ontological reasons.

    On the subject of grammar, it has been bugging me for hours. Shouldn't Guido's spreadsheet be 'Who's backing whom?'
    https://order-order.com/2022/10/21/whos-backing-who-the-spreadsheet-returns/
    Yes, but the rule of thumb is ALWAYS say who, because a correct whom looks pedantic as often as not and an incorrect one is career ending.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,607

    I actually think it is a hugely positive thing that a non-white or a woman being elected to some of the highest offices in the land doesn't actually really get much press focusing upon that these days.

    I'm in a few Tory association WhatsApp groups, some Red Wall.

    All the bile raised towards Sunak is all to do with the betrayal of Boris Johnson, not his skin colour.

    We had four non white people in a row as Chancellor, skin colour hardly mentioned, all the focus was on policies.
    I couldn't give a toss about his skin colour.

    I support Sunak because he's by far the best candidate.

    We need to get beyond this.
    You mean the least worst candidate.

    You equivocated during the last contest, quite rightly, because Rishi is significantly flawed.

    Nevertheless we must wish him well, and to come to power for Diwali is surely auspicious.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 105,148
    Alistair said:

    I expect polling to return to the status Truss ante under Sunak.

    I think it gets under 20 lead but higher than pre Truss as permanent damage has been done. 10 will be low end/opinium with the average mid high teens imo
    Having said that JL Partners......
    Voting intentions conducted by @JLPartnersPolls for Labour against every possible Tory leader…

    Current:
    🌹LAB: 51%
    🌳CON: 25%

    Johnson:
    🌹LAB: 46%
    🌳CON: 36%

    Sunak:
    🌹LAB: 46%
    🌳CON: 35%

    Mordaunt:
    🌹LAB: 50%
    🌳CON: 28%
    (Caveat in that she’s widely unknown)
    Hypothetical polling is garbage.
    It wasn't for Johnson in 2019 or for Major in 1990 or indeed for Blair in 1994
This discussion has been closed.