Is this going to be Truss’s last week as PM? – politicalbetting.com

first.... Like Rishi

Thank you Mike. These are extraordinary times. Until the weekend I wasn't entirely convinced that Truss would go.

I think the tory brand is trashed. I guess the hope is that they replace her with some stabilising and sensible person to limit their now inevitable losses at the election. If they can survive with say 100-150 MPs intact from here they will have done well. 200 would be dreamland. As things currently stand they face a Canada-style wipeout. And be in doubt, there's enough anger out there to deliver just that.

There's talk today of heading for an election. Although it is what the country needs to clear the air with a fresh start, I can't see how that can come about. Or are there enough tory MPs prepared to do the decent thing and effectively sign their own death warrants? Might one faction or another throw their toys out the pram and vote down the Government?

She will last the week.

But she should not.

Neither should this government. The country needs a GE.

(Though I would be open to a GE being delayed slightly, if the prospect of a GE would further spook the markets.)

From the BBC:

"The chancellor Jeremy Hunt will make a statement later today where he is expected to set out how the government will pay for the plans set out in the mini-budget.

He will bring forward "measures from the Medium-Term Fiscal Plan", in a statement in the House of Commons.

The chancellor and Prime Minister Liz Truss have been speaking over the weekend following her announcement of a U-turn on corporation tax on Friday. It also follows the sacking of Hunt's predecessor Kwasi Kwarteng on the same day.

The full details of the Medium-Term Fiscal Plan are due to be released on 31 October."

If this stabilises the markets, as I expect it will, then I am not convinced that Truss is going to be ousted at the moment.

It may look as if Hunt is in charge, and he is certainly going to come over as incredibly powerful, Liz Truss is well used to U-turns so from her point of view this is just another flip-flop day.

Pulpstar said:

Looks more like a completely disorganised civil war rather than the MPs singing with one voice against Truss to me

It’s quite possible this stalemate situation persists for some time.

£ is up almost 1%

The key question is - is that because traders like what Hunt is saying? Because they’re pricing in an imminent Truss departure, or because they anticipate higher interest rates after Baileys comments?

If the latter, bond yields may well rise further, which is probably terminal for Truss.

If it’s the first explanation, she may well be value to lay a 2022 departure, as bond yields should stabilise/fall.

I think.

Heathener said:

If this stabilises the markets, as I expect it will, then I am not convinced that Truss is going to be ousted at the moment.

Even if she survives today, there are further problems tomorrow and the next day if Hunt starts flexing his muscles in other policy areas.

For example, as a former health secretary is he really going to let Coffey hand out antibiotics like Halloween candy..?

Truss should resign as soon as possible and we should probably have an early election.

Scott_xP said:

Heathener said:

If this stabilises the markets, as I expect it will, then I am not convinced that Truss is going to be ousted at the moment.

For example, as a former health secretary is he really going to let Coffey hand out antibiotics like Halloween candy..?

I see it's reported that she has swapped out prescription meds to her friends.

It's great, isn't it? A chain-smoking Health Secretary who passes around prescription drugs.

Heathener said:

Is there any chance that Truss, knowing she's to be ousted, would go to T̶h̶e̶ ̶P̶a̶l̶a̶c̶e̶ Clarence House?

I'm scratching my head to find any possible ways in which the country can get what it now clearly needs: a General Election to clear the air.

One thing the tories need to be very careful about is that when John Major dragged it out to the last possible moment in 1997 and with a ridiculously long GE campaign, that perception of clinging to the last vestiges of power against the people's will undoubtedly compounded their losses.

The King would ask Ms Truss:

"Do you think, Ms Truss, that there might be someone else who could command the confidence of the House of Commons?"

Says a lot about the state of things that the government felt it had to announce that more mini Budget measures are being abandoned before the markets had even opened

https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1581889180913000448

rcs1000 said:

Heathener said:

Is there any chance that Truss, knowing she's to be ousted, would go to T̶h̶e̶ ̶P̶a̶l̶a̶c̶e̶ Clarence House?

I'm scratching my head to find any possible ways in which the country can get what it now clearly needs: a General Election to clear the air.

One thing the tories need to be very careful about is that when John Major dragged it out to the last possible moment in 1997 and with a ridiculously long GE campaign, that perception of clinging to the last vestiges of power against the people's will undoubtedly compounded their losses.

The King would ask Ms Truss:

"Do you think, Ms Truss, that there might be someone else who could command the confidence of the House of Commons?"

99% you're correct.

In my naivety I'd like to think Charles would in fact say to her,

'Do you think, Ms Truss, that it might be time for a General Election?'

Andy_JS said:

Starmer could be PM within weeks.

I'm surprised some Conservative MPs have not crossed the floor. Or perhaps they have tried, and been rebuffed...

rcs1000 said:

Heathener said:

Is there any chance that Truss, knowing she's to be ousted, would go to T̶h̶e̶ ̶P̶a̶l̶a̶c̶e̶ Clarence House?

I'm scratching my head to find any possible ways in which the country can get what it now clearly needs: a General Election to clear the air.

One thing the tories need to be very careful about is that when John Major dragged it out to the last possible moment in 1997 and with a ridiculously long GE campaign, that perception of clinging to the last vestiges of power against the people's will undoubtedly compounded their losses.

The King would ask Ms Truss:

"Do you think, Ms Truss, that there might be someone else who could command the confidence of the House of Commons?"

And she would reply:

"Your majesty, my priority is making sure we deliver the economic stability that our country needs. That’s why I had to take the difficult decisions I’ve taken today. We need to have a high growth economy but we have to recognise we are facing very difficult issues as a country. And low tax."

Chris said:

rcs1000 said:

Heathener said:

Is there any chance that Truss, knowing she's to be ousted, would go to T̶h̶e̶ ̶P̶a̶l̶a̶c̶e̶ Clarence House?

I'm scratching my head to find any possible ways in which the country can get what it now clearly needs: a General Election to clear the air.

One thing the tories need to be very careful about is that when John Major dragged it out to the last possible moment in 1997 and with a ridiculously long GE campaign, that perception of clinging to the last vestiges of power against the people's will undoubtedly compounded their losses.

The King would ask Ms Truss:

"Do you think, Ms Truss, that there might be someone else who could command the confidence of the House of Commons?"

And she would reply:

"Your majesty, my priority is making sure we deliver the economic stability that our country needs. That’s why I had to take the difficult decisions I’ve taken today. We need to have a high growth economy but we have to recognise we are facing very difficult issues as a country. And low tax."

Although between his question and her reply there would be a 10 second pause.

And after she left the room he'd be muttering something stronger than, 'oh dear, oh dear'

Truss won’t go today because the statement will absorb all government time/energy.

Later this week feels like a possibility though.

Liz Truss is no longer leading - she is being led.

Read my analysis at @jrmaidment’s @Telegraph live blog on another turbulent day in Westminster.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/17/politics-latest-news-jeremy-hunt-budget-liz-truss/ https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1581892258101460993/photo/1

darkage said:

Scott_xP said:

Heathener said:

If this stabilises the markets, as I expect it will, then I am not convinced that Truss is going to be ousted at the moment.

Even if she survives today, there are further problems tomorrow and the next day if Hunt starts flexing his muscles in other policy areas.

For example, as a former health secretary is he really going to let Coffey hand out antibiotics like Halloween candy..?

Some of these 'policies' seem to be suicidally idiotic. It suggests that they aren't working with the Civil service or seriously discussing them at Cabinet level.

Suella Braverman has also gone all Colonel Kurtz.

I thought the Remainer Parliament was the most unreal political time of my life but this might well now be eclipsing it.

It is absolutely stark raving bonkers.

JosiasJessop said:

Andy_JS said:

Starmer could be PM within weeks.

I'm surprised some Conservative MPs have not crossed the floor. Or perhaps they have tried, and been rebuffed...

Why would they with what it means to be Conservative so in flux? The Conservative Party next month could be a very different thing, with different policies, under Sunak or Hunt or Mordaunt. With Truss on the way out, there’s no need for MPs to leave.

CarlottaVance said:

Commons sitting due to start at 2.30.

Rumours of announcement at 11.00

So announcement won’t be in Commons - cue telling off from Mr Speaker on Chancellor’s first day in House.

CarlottaVance said:

So announcement won’t be in Commons - cue telling off from Mr Speaker on Chancellor’s first day in House.

Not so sure about that. He needs to stabilise the markets pronto. On rare occasions that takes precedence.

Andy_JS said:

The funny thing is that if Truss and Kwarteng had done and said almost nothing over the last 6 weeks they probably wouldn't have faced any problems, above and beyond what the Johnson administration had already caused/experienced.

Yes.

Grievously self inflicted wounds.

So, Johnson's decision to promote the fundamentalist authors of Britannia Unchained not working out well so far?

Chris said:

rcs1000 said:

Heathener said:

Is there any chance that Truss, knowing she's to be ousted, would go to T̶h̶e̶ ̶P̶a̶l̶a̶c̶e̶ Clarence House?

I'm scratching my head to find any possible ways in which the country can get what it now clearly needs: a General Election to clear the air.

One thing the tories need to be very careful about is that when John Major dragged it out to the last possible moment in 1997 and with a ridiculously long GE campaign, that perception of clinging to the last vestiges of power against the people's will undoubtedly compounded their losses.

The King would ask Ms Truss:

"Do you think, Ms Truss, that there might be someone else who could command the confidence of the House of Commons?"

And she would reply:

"Your majesty, my priority is making sure we deliver the economic stability that our country needs. That’s why I had to take the difficult decisions I’ve taken today. We need to have a high growth economy but we have to recognise we are facing very difficult issues as a country. And low tax."

No, surely she’d tell him all about the energy price guarantee?

Feels like the Government is trying to buy more time this morning.

1. To try and stabilise the markets by showing how the books will balanced

2. To try and stabilise the situation in Parliament and talk down mutinous Conservative MPs

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-63278993 https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1581877124243558400

O/T

Crispin Blunt becomes the first Tory MP to call for Iain Duncan Smith to resign as leader in 2003.

At 5 mins 40 secs:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LNf-_i8jWMU

Pulpstar said:

I mean Truss changes to ir35 obviously

I'm not sure IR35 changes were what spooked the markets.

Certainly giving the Opposition ammunition:

I can’t think of a single instance in history when changes to taxes or duties have been “announced” outside Parliament. In one instance when it was leaked, it led to the Chancellor’s immediate resignation. This is a sign of further panic, not greater stability.

https://twitter.com/RhonddaBryant/status/1581893260452450305

EXCL: Keir Starmer’s shadow cabinet are receiving training sessions in how to be ministers

Just two of them have been Secretaries of State before

More than 20, including Starmer, have only served in the Commons during Labour’s opposition years

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ebe8ee1a-4d77-11ed-af60-3f894fe60060?shareToken=9aebd62674e1a69fd4adae2fa3c42722


Maybe team Truss should have done this...

Maybe Charles will be going to the climate summit after all. After all, it was Truss who said he couldn't go.

Scott_xP said:

numbertwelve said:

Truss won’t go today because the statement will absorb all government time/energy.

Later this week feels like a possibility though.

PMQs will be a complete farce

I wouldn’t be surprised if she is going to try and cling on with this desperate “look I stabilised the market” crap. If she went to the Johnson school of outstaying her welcome it could get messy.

Truss cannot go until Tory MPs can agree a unity candidate to be crowned the new Tory leader and PM

numbertwelve said:

darkage said:

Scott_xP said:

Heathener said:

If this stabilises the markets, as I expect it will, then I am not convinced that Truss is going to be ousted at the moment.

Even if she survives today, there are further problems tomorrow and the next day if Hunt starts flexing his muscles in other policy areas.

For example, as a former health secretary is he really going to let Coffey hand out antibiotics like Halloween candy..?

Some of these 'policies' seem to be suicidally idiotic. It suggests that they aren't working with the Civil service or seriously discussing them at Cabinet level.

I dont think they are. I think they’re making them up on the fly and briefing them to the press. The Tory Party and government’s discipline is simply falling apart.

Yes, it suggests that no one has any authority. It won't change until Truss goes. She is ultimately responsible for the situation. Hunt can only do so much in the position he is in.

Andy_JS said:

Truss should resign as soon as possible and we should probably have an early election.

Even if the Tories were to decide to lose power a year or two earlier than necessary, and hold a general election, they would surely wait until they had a different leader to Truss to campaign for them in that election.

This makes me suspect that the appointment of Hunt has bought Truss some time. Tories now have the luxury of taking some time to have a really good internal struggle over who should come next, because Hunt should prevent imminent total economic collapse. The pressure to agree a unity candidate to replace Truss is much reduced.

Pulpstar said:

Ir35 is for the chop according to the infoadmercial of one of those umbrella company selling websites.

Firm that only exists because of the way ir35 currently works says ir35 won’t change after all.

With the 25% level of corporation tax - I think the calculations would make returning ir35 to the old approach won’t cost anything like even the September estimates.

Heathener said:

Is there any chance that Truss, knowing she's to be ousted, would go to T̶h̶e̶ ̶P̶a̶l̶a̶c̶e̶ Clarence House?

I'm scratching my head to find any possible ways in which the country can get what it now clearly needs: a General Election to clear the air.

One thing the tories need to be very careful about is that when John Major dragged it out to the last possible moment in 1997 and with a ridiculously long GE campaign, that perception of clinging to the last vestiges of power against the people's will undoubtedly compounded their losses.

No it didn't, the polls were just as bad for the Major Tories in 1994 as 1997 if not worse. They just ensured 3 extra years in government

Truss is going nowhere unless she resigns. The current Conservative Party uniting round a single candidate? Or alternatively putting it back to the members? Do me a favour.

DougSeal said:

Pulpstar said:

Ir35 is for the chop according to the infoadmercial of one of those umbrella company selling websites.

There’s a lot of disinformation about that been going round to that effect since the mini-budget. As I’m sure you’re aware, it’s the 2017/2021 changes that are being scrapped, not IR35 itself. But that hasn’t stopped a lot of these companies pumping these out. F***ing LinkedIn is full of them.

I can’t see Hunt abolishing it either and, if he was, there won’t have been time to pump out an infomercial, let alone based on a leak.

I presume the thing that is for the chop is the idea that contractors themselves can declare whether they are working inside or outside IR35, rather than the employer having to make a declaration and being liable for it. I've discussed this with some tax lawyers and the conclusion was that the changes would just lead to more people declaring themselves outside of IR35, thus reducing tax generated, and then leading to more disputes and investigations which are obviously time and resource draining for HMRC.

HYUFD said:

Truss cannot go until Tory MPs can agree a unity candidate to be crowned the new Tory leader and PM

Does Wallace actually want the job?

Truss 2022 Exit drifting but Truss to be leader at GE also drifting - now 9.2.

So market more confident Truss will go pre GE but just maybe not quite as soon as expected.

As for next leader market (might be next LotO market!), it was put to me that the only person with the moral authority to be PM now is Rishi. His view has been consistent in terms of a fiscal plan and he didn't suddenly switch to the Truss view of the world like so many others.

Rishi as PM however would leave the membership apoplectic.

Quite where that leaves the Party or the country goodness only knows.

Scott_xP said:

EXCL: Keir Starmer’s shadow cabinet are receiving training sessions in how to be ministers

Just two of them have been Secretaries of State before

More than 20, including Starmer, have only served in the Commons during Labour’s opposition years

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ebe8ee1a-4d77-11ed-af60-3f894fe60060?shareToken=9aebd62674e1a69fd4adae2fa3c42722


Maybe team Truss should have done this...

Essentially the same issue that Labour faced in 1997.

That Truss policy platform in full:

A u-turn a day keeps the IMF away.

There is one thing I am absolutely confident about and that is that there will be no imminent general election.

So, somehow, the Tories are conspiring to make things worse, it’s mind boggling. Do they like the drama and want to stay in the headlines?

TOPPING said:

As for next leader market (might be next LotO market!), it was put to me that the only person with the moral authority to be PM now is Rishi. His view has been consistent in terms of a fiscal plan and he didn't suddenly switch to the Truss view of the world like so many others.

Rishi as PM however would leave the membership apoplectic.

Quite where that leaves the Party or the country goodness only knows.

The membership can go hang.

They've brought this economic mess on the country and should be allowed nowhere the next leadership decision.

HYUFD said:

Andy_JS said:

HYUFD said:

Truss cannot go until Tory MPs can agree a unity candidate to be crowned the new Tory leader and PM

Does Wallace actually want the job?

He has not ruled it out now and is the only viable unity candidate who could unite the

Translated: I like Ben Wallace therefore he is the only candidate

TOPPING said:

Rishi as PM however would leave the membership apoplectic.

Fuck 'em

They got us into this mess.

Imagine waking up this morning worried about your mortgage or your pension. And then you see Sir Roger Gale saying “we’ll, yeah, we’d like to do something to help. But you know, the rules of the 1922 committee do have to be obeyed…”. What gets into the heads of these people.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1581900069418127360

Scott_xP said:

TOPPING said:

Rishi as PM however would leave the membership apoplectic.

Fuck 'em

They got us into this mess.

Imagine waking up this morning worried about your mortgage or your pension. And then you see Sir Roger Gale saying “we’ll, yeah, we’d like to do something to help. But you know, the rules of the 1922 committee do have to be obeyed…”. What gets into the heads of these people.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1581900069418127360

Who's going to deliver the leaflets?

I did actually close out my Truss out in 2022 position. Things drag on for longer than we would wish, no PM ever has voluntarily left because they believed themselves not up to the job, and the 22 as it stands needs to wait a year and even if the letters go in them what next?

As Portillo said it would have to be an acclamation but who? The only person with the credibility and moral authority to lead is loathed by the membership.