Is this going to be Truss’s last week as PM? – politicalbetting.com
Is this going to be Truss’s last week as PM? – politicalbetting.com
What an awful set of front pages this morning for the Prime Minister with even the most loyal newspapers not being supportive.
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I think the tory brand is trashed. I guess the hope is that they replace her with some stabilising and sensible person to limit their now inevitable losses at the election. If they can survive with say 100-150 MPs intact from here they will have done well. 200 would be dreamland. As things currently stand they face a Canada-style wipeout. And be in doubt, there's enough anger out there to deliver just that.
There's talk today of heading for an election. Although it is what the country needs to clear the air with a fresh start, I can't see how that can come about. Or are there enough tory MPs prepared to do the decent thing and effectively sign their own death warrants? Might one faction or another throw their toys out the pram and vote down the Government?
But she should not.
Neither should this government. The country needs a GE.
(Though I would be open to a GE being delayed slightly, if the prospect of a GE would further spook the markets.)
https://www.ft.com/content/38b30b44-94c2-4775-8efb-2c95b3e8c447 https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1581758810536169473/photo/1
"The chancellor Jeremy Hunt will make a statement later today where he is expected to set out how the government will pay for the plans set out in the mini-budget.
He will bring forward "measures from the Medium-Term Fiscal Plan", in a statement in the House of Commons.
The chancellor and Prime Minister Liz Truss have been speaking over the weekend following her announcement of a U-turn on corporation tax on Friday. It also follows the sacking of Hunt's predecessor Kwasi Kwarteng on the same day.
The full details of the Medium-Term Fiscal Plan are due to be released on 31 October."
If this stabilises the markets, as I expect it will, then I am not convinced that Truss is going to be ousted at the moment.
It may look as if Hunt is in charge, and he is certainly going to come over as incredibly powerful, Liz Truss is well used to U-turns so from her point of view this is just another flip-flop day.
The key question is - is that because traders like what Hunt is saying? Because they’re pricing in an imminent Truss departure, or because they anticipate higher interest rates after Baileys comments?
If the latter, bond yields may well rise further, which is probably terminal for Truss.
If it’s the first explanation, she may well be value to lay a 2022 departure, as bond yields should stabilise/fall.
I think.
For example, as a former health secretary is he really going to let Coffey hand out antibiotics like Halloween candy..?
I'm scratching my head to find any possible ways in which the country can get what it now clearly needs: a General Election to clear the air.
One thing the tories need to be very careful about is that when John Major dragged it out to the last possible moment in 1997 and with a ridiculously long GE campaign, that perception of clinging to the last vestiges of power against the people's will undoubtedly compounded their losses.
https://twitter.com/NovelSci/status/1555028758494576640
What time is the Prime Chancellor giving his statement?
It's great, isn't it? A chain-smoking Health Secretary who passes around prescription drugs.
The telegraph is reporting 11.00am
"Do you think, Ms Truss, that there might be someone else who could command the confidence of the House of Commons?"
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1581888199311626241
https://twitter.com/JGForsyth/status/1581889180913000448
In my naivety I'd like to think Charles would in fact say to her,
'Do you think, Ms Truss, that it might be time for a General Election?'
I love the idea, obvs, but how?
"Your majesty, my priority is making sure we deliver the economic stability that our country needs. That’s why I had to take the difficult decisions I’ve taken today. We need to have a high growth economy but we have to recognise we are facing very difficult issues as a country. And low tax."
Rumours of announcement at 11.00
So announcement won’t be in Commons - cue telling off from Mr Speaker on Chancellor’s first day in House.
Although between his question and her reply there would be a 10 second pause.
And after she left the room he'd be muttering something stronger than, 'oh dear, oh dear'
Later this week feels like a possibility though.
Read my analysis at @jrmaidment’s @Telegraph live blog on another turbulent day in Westminster.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/10/17/politics-latest-news-jeremy-hunt-budget-liz-truss/ https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1581892258101460993/photo/1
I thought the Remainer Parliament was the most unreal political time of my life but this might well now be eclipsing it.
It is absolutely stark raving bonkers.
https://twitter.com/GeorgeWParker/status/1581883782436569089
Grievously self inflicted wounds.
https://twitter.com/GeorgeWParker/status/1581884793645453312
1. To try and stabilise the markets by showing how the books will balanced
2. To try and stabilise the situation in Parliament and talk down mutinous Conservative MPs
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-63278993 https://twitter.com/nickeardleybbc/status/1581877124243558400
I guess they want to get it out before the US opens.
Crispin Blunt becomes the first Tory MP to call for Iain Duncan Smith to resign as leader in 2003.
At 5 mins 40 secs:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LNf-_i8jWMU
They were kissing the ball and praying for good luck before spinning it onto the roulette wheel. Gambling with the nation's finances. These are our mortgages, pensions, prices, savings, being gambled with by a Government with little or no fiscal experience.
Earliest of early signs of a small movement down in bond yields.
I can’t think of a single instance in history when changes to taxes or duties have been “announced” outside Parliament. In one instance when it was leaked, it led to the Chancellor’s immediate resignation. This is a sign of further panic, not greater stability.
https://twitter.com/RhonddaBryant/status/1581893260452450305
I really do not see how you produce a credible MTFS with a great big £200bn hole in the middle of it. If he doesn't do this the risk is that we have far sharper cuts in services and a much bigger increase in taxes to pay for it than might ultimately be necessary, depending on the future price of gas.
Just two of them have been Secretaries of State before
More than 20, including Starmer, have only served in the Commons during Labour’s opposition years
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ebe8ee1a-4d77-11ed-af60-3f894fe60060?shareToken=9aebd62674e1a69fd4adae2fa3c42722
Maybe team Truss should have done this...
So Hunt is absolutely right not to proceed with Truss's proposed changes.
I can’t see Hunt abolishing it either and, if he was, there won’t have been time to pump out an infomercial, let alone based on a leak.
The mess and the damage to our international reputation is completely self inflicted. What a joke.
The chancellor should announce that with immediate effect, you must be a foreign tax resident for 25 years rather than only 5 to avoid uk capital gains tax.
This makes me suspect that the appointment of Hunt has bought Truss some time. Tories now have the luxury of taking some time to have a really good internal struggle over who should come next, because Hunt should prevent imminent total economic collapse. The pressure to agree a unity candidate to replace Truss is much reduced.
One-off costs don't really matter in the long run - if something only lasts one or two years then it has no impact at all on whether debt falls as a % of GDP in year 3.
The point about IT, CT, NIC changes is they are assumed to be indefinite.
With the 25% level of corporation tax - I think the calculations would make returning ir35 to the old approach won’t cost anything like even the September estimates.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-63280519
That will give the Home and Foreign Secretaries a headache this morning. Suella Braverman & James Cleverly, at time of writing.
So market more confident Truss will go pre GE but just maybe not quite as soon as expected.
Rishi as PM however would leave the membership apoplectic.
Quite where that leaves the Party or the country goodness only knows.
Looks like strong potential for another mistake to me.
If there is such a candidate it could be someone no-one has thought of yet.
A u-turn a day keeps the IMF away.
Ben Wallace has now said he is willing to be considered. Ironically, if he still hankers after the Nato job, then Theresa May returning to Downing Street would remove his main domestic rival.
So, she won't be allowed to fight a GE and, therefore, Keir Starmer won't be the *next* Prime Minister.
They've brought this economic mess on the country and should be allowed nowhere the next leadership decision.
He got 43% last time and would almost certainly poll more in any new vote given what's happened in the last few weeks.
And the key point is that most Conservative members see it as a social organisation and are not very ideological.
Of course there are plenty of hardcore nutters but they are in the minority.
Some tweets on this today:
AFP photographer @YasuyoshiChiba captured the moment a kamikaze drone dived on its target this morning in Kyiv.
https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1581898167129296896
Remains of an Iranian kamikaze drone that was shot down in #Kyiv
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1581899069630205954
They got us into this mess.
Imagine waking up this morning worried about your mortgage or your pension. And then you see Sir Roger Gale saying “we’ll, yeah, we’d like to do something to help. But you know, the rules of the 1922 committee do have to be obeyed…”. What gets into the heads of these people.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1581900069418127360
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates
https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1581901772544581633
As Portillo said it would have to be an acclamation but who? The only person with the credibility and moral authority to lead is loathed by the membership.