A 2023 Truss exit now a 58% chance in the betting – politicalbetting.com

MarqueeMark said:

Psychologically, she must be crushed. You have put the hubristic you out there for all to see. But your self-belief is shared by nobody else.

Far stronger people have been broken by that level of destruction of your world - in full view of the world.

Scott_xP said:

Truss’s economic relationship with her party - and the country - so far feels like that old joke:
Question: What's an Australian’s idea of foreplay? Answer: ‘Brace yourself, Sheila'.

But as Oct31 looms, her MPs are refusing to brace themselves for more fiscal punishment

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1580268509585879040

ydoethur said:

Meanwhile, the England selectors have finally lost what passes for their marbles. They have taken a Test squad to Pakistan with (a) just one specialist spinner and (b) Liam Livingstone.

For goodness sakes guys, at least take one of the Parkinsons or Liam Dawson if you couldn't bear to admit you were wrong about Dom Bess.

GIN1138 said:

Scott_xP said:

Truss’s economic relationship with her party - and the country - so far feels like that old joke:
Question: What's an Australian’s idea of foreplay? Answer: ‘Brace yourself, Sheila'.

But as Oct31 looms, her MPs are refusing to brace themselves for more fiscal punishment

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1580268509585879040

I can't believe they've scheduled the next fiscal statement for Halloween... I mean headlines have already written themselves have't they?

kle4 said:

Scott_xP said:

Truss’s economic relationship with her party - and the country - so far feels like that old joke:
Question: What's an Australian’s idea of foreplay? Answer: ‘Brace yourself, Sheila'.

But as Oct31 looms, her MPs are refusing to brace themselves for more fiscal punishment

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1580268509585879040

But I saw a headline earlier that there would be no cuts to spending, and since growth is nailed on, what's there to worry about?

IshmaelZ said:

GIN1138 said:

numbertwelve said:

williamglenn said:

@RoyalFamily
🤝 The King welcomes Prime Minister Liz Truss to Buckingham Palace for the first of their regular weekly audiences.



https://twitter.com/RoyalFamily/status/1580269333582077952

"Can you give me any tips on how to boost my approval ratings?"

Chas knows a thing or two about plumbing the depths of unpopularity... Not sure his advice would help Liz much though given it took 25 years just to become merely tolerated and he had to bump off his ex-wife too...

*ducks*

An utterly infallible wanker indicator, is that wink emoji.

*ducks* is also pretty reliable.

rcs1000 said:

Leon said:

TheValiant said:

Leon said:

Russia climbs out of recession. Extraordimary

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/10/11/as-europe-falls-into-recession-russia-climbs-out

Sanctions took about 3-4% off the economy, not the expected 8-10%

Meanwhile Europe teeters near to outright collapse

I wouldn't believe the Russian growth figures. They're probably outright lies.
Afterall, that's where the phrase 'tractor stats' does come from.

The Economist believes this. Coz this isn't Russian data, they are using more reliable indicators

With all due respect, it's not that surprising at all:

Russia exports commodities, particularly energy. 54% (last year!) of all exports were energy. The price of coal is up 4x, the price of their LNG cargoes to China and Japan has trebled, what they (previously) got for sending gas to Europe was at 6x what they got in 2021, and the price of oil is up, even if not so much.

In other words - and I said this months ago - the war is partially self funding because it increases the value of Russia's exports.

The problem is that the energy economy is not the economy of most of the country. If you work in a factory where parts have been cut off due to sanctions, then your factory isn't working. GDP in total can look fine, but you are personally doing shit.

And it doesn't help Russia with their core problem with the war: they are expending materiel far more quickly than they are producing it. Those drones and missiles and rockets rely on technology from China, Korea, Taiwan and Japan (and probably the UK, France and Germany too). Even the starter motors on their tanks are going to rely on batteries that aren't made in Russia.

That - not a GDP buouyed by energy prices - is Russia's problem.

Oh yeah... and every day Europe (and the world) gets less dependent and less hooked on Russian energy. So when the war ends, and it will end, Russia will see reduced prices and fewer customers. That's not a great place to be.

GIN1138 said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

IshmaelZ said:

GIN1138 said:

numbertwelve said:

williamglenn said:

@RoyalFamily
🤝 The King welcomes Prime Minister Liz Truss to Buckingham Palace for the first of their regular weekly audiences.



https://twitter.com/RoyalFamily/status/1580269333582077952

"Can you give me any tips on how to boost my approval ratings?"

Chas knows a thing or two about plumbing the depths of unpopularity... Not sure his advice would help Liz much though given it took 25 years just to become merely tolerated and he had to bump off his ex-wife too...

*ducks*

An utterly infallible wanker indicator, is that wink emoji.

*ducks* is also pretty reliable.

No need to be rude ducks.

I think he's a bit upset with me? I've been here for 16 years and it's the first time someone's got really, really pissed off with me lol!

darkage said:

Scheduled to Die: The Rise of Canada's Assisted Suicide Program


https://www.commonsense.news/p/scheduled-to-die-the-rise-of-canadas?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=cta&utm_source=substack

When we think of assisted suicide or euthanasia, we imagine a limited number of elderly people with late-stage cancer or advanced ALS in severe pain. The argument for helping them die is clear: Death is imminent. Why should they be forced to suffer?

In 2015, Canada’s Supreme Court ruled that assisted suicide was constitutional. In June 2016, Parliament passed Bill C-14, otherwise known as the Medical Assistance in Dying Act. MAiD was now the law of the land. Anyone who could show that their death was “reasonably foreseeable” was eligible...

Today, thousands of people who could live for many years are applying—successfully—to kill themselves.

Indeed, in some Canadian provinces nearly 5 percent of deaths are MAiD deaths. In 2021, the province of Quebec reported that 4.7 percent of deaths in the province were due to MAiD; in British Columbia, the number was 4.8 percent. Progressive Vancouver Island is unofficially known as the “assisted-death capital of the world,” doctors told me.

Why the dramatic increase? Over the past few years, doctors have taken an increasingly liberal view when it comes to defining “reasonably foreseeable” death. Then, last year, the government amended the original legislation, stating that one could apply for MAiD even if one’s death were not reasonably foreseeable. This second track of applicants simply had to show that they had a condition that was “intolerable to them” and could not “be relieved under conditions that they consider acceptable...

Next March, the government is scheduled to expand the pool of eligible suicide-seekers to include the mentally ill and “mature minors.” According to Canada’s Department of Justice, parents are generally “entitled to make treatment decisions on their children’s behalf. The mature minor doctrine, however, allows children deemed sufficiently mature to make their own treatment decisions.”

kle4 said:

MarqueeMark said:

Scott_xP said:

Like others I hear that the mood at tonight’s 1922 was very bad. I’m told MPs were “utterly shocked” by the PM’s performance. “From delusion to devastation — writ large on her face.” Feels like, if anything, her situation has worsened.
https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1580265694750715904

I don't see how she makes it to Christmas. Nothing, but nothing, is getting better for her. With no prospect on the horizon either. I mean, the Kherson garrison could surrender, Putin could get taken and shot, his successor could pull troops out of Ukraine, the world could brief a massive sigh of relief, markets could have a massive uptick. But they have already seen structural problems that need to be fixed even if that 2% scenario played out, so unlikely she would be out of the woods.

Psychologically, she must be crushed. You have put the hubristic you out there for all to see. But your self-belief is shared by nobody else.

Far stronger people have been broken by that level of destruction of your world - in full view of the world.

Yes, for her it has been a perfect storm. So many things - both her own fault and not her fault - have all come together, and her reputation has been simply shattered by it. She could walk on water tomorrow and people would not be swayed.

It might be no one could now face down this mess, much as May could not handle the Brexit divisions, but she's not even done so well.

Pagan2 said:

darkage said:

Scheduled to Die: The Rise of Canada's Assisted Suicide Program


https://www.commonsense.news/p/scheduled-to-die-the-rise-of-canadas?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=cta&utm_source=substack

When we think of assisted suicide or euthanasia, we imagine a limited number of elderly people with late-stage cancer or advanced ALS in severe pain. The argument for helping them die is clear: Death is imminent. Why should they be forced to suffer?

In 2015, Canada’s Supreme Court ruled that assisted suicide was constitutional. In June 2016, Parliament passed Bill C-14, otherwise known as the Medical Assistance in Dying Act. MAiD was now the law of the land. Anyone who could show that their death was “reasonably foreseeable” was eligible...

Today, thousands of people who could live for many years are applying—successfully—to kill themselves.

Indeed, in some Canadian provinces nearly 5 percent of deaths are MAiD deaths. In 2021, the province of Quebec reported that 4.7 percent of deaths in the province were due to MAiD; in British Columbia, the number was 4.8 percent. Progressive Vancouver Island is unofficially known as the “assisted-death capital of the world,” doctors told me.

Why the dramatic increase? Over the past few years, doctors have taken an increasingly liberal view when it comes to defining “reasonably foreseeable” death. Then, last year, the government amended the original legislation, stating that one could apply for MAiD even if one’s death were not reasonably foreseeable. This second track of applicants simply had to show that they had a condition that was “intolerable to them” and could not “be relieved under conditions that they consider acceptable...

Next March, the government is scheduled to expand the pool of eligible suicide-seekers to include the mentally ill and “mature minors.” According to Canada’s Department of Justice, parents are generally “entitled to make treatment decisions on their children’s behalf. The mature minor doctrine, however, allows children deemed sufficiently mature to make their own treatment decisions.”

Do you regard this as a good thing or bad thing....its not clear?

ydoethur said:

turbotubbs said:

ydoethur said:

Meanwhile, the England selectors have finally lost what passes for their marbles. They have taken a Test squad to Pakistan with (a) just one specialist spinner and (b) Liam Livingstone.

For goodness sakes guys, at least take one of the Parkinsons or Liam Dawson if you couldn't bear to admit you were wrong about Dom Bess.

I give you Joe Root, with 50 test wickets.

And I give you lots of Pakistani batsmen who will much enjoy walloping him to the far side of the Hindu Kush.

Edit - he seems to be an unusual bowler, he has fewer wickets as time passes!

darkage said:

kle4 said:

MarqueeMark said:

Scott_xP said:

Like others I hear that the mood at tonight’s 1922 was very bad. I’m told MPs were “utterly shocked” by the PM’s performance. “From delusion to devastation — writ large on her face.” Feels like, if anything, her situation has worsened.
https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1580265694750715904

I don't see how she makes it to Christmas. Nothing, but nothing, is getting better for her. With no prospect on the horizon either. I mean, the Kherson garrison could surrender, Putin could get taken and shot, his successor could pull troops out of Ukraine, the world could brief a massive sigh of relief, markets could have a massive uptick. But they have already seen structural problems that need to be fixed even if that 2% scenario played out, so unlikely she would be out of the woods.

Psychologically, she must be crushed. You have put the hubristic you out there for all to see. But your self-belief is shared by nobody else.

Far stronger people have been broken by that level of destruction of your world - in full view of the world.

Yes, for her it has been a perfect storm. So many things - both her own fault and not her fault - have all come together, and her reputation has been simply shattered by it. She could walk on water tomorrow and people would not be swayed.

It might be no one could now face down this mess, much as May could not handle the Brexit divisions, but she's not even done so well.

There is a question in my mind as to whether she understands and appreciates just how bad it is. She appears to be in denial. But it is a political failure, of the type we have never witnessed before on this level.

Scott_xP said:

Breaking: A Connecticut court rules Alex Jones owes Sandy Hook victims over $1 billion.

Luckyguy1983 said:

darkage said:

kle4 said:

MarqueeMark said:

Scott_xP said:

Like others I hear that the mood at tonight’s 1922 was very bad. I’m told MPs were “utterly shocked” by the PM’s performance. “From delusion to devastation — writ large on her face.” Feels like, if anything, her situation has worsened.
https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1580265694750715904

I don't see how she makes it to Christmas. Nothing, but nothing, is getting better for her. With no prospect on the horizon either. I mean, the Kherson garrison could surrender, Putin could get taken and shot, his successor could pull troops out of Ukraine, the world could brief a massive sigh of relief, markets could have a massive uptick. But they have already seen structural problems that need to be fixed even if that 2% scenario played out, so unlikely she would be out of the woods.

Psychologically, she must be crushed. You have put the hubristic you out there for all to see. But your self-belief is shared by nobody else.

Far stronger people have been broken by that level of destruction of your world - in full view of the world.

Yes, for her it has been a perfect storm. So many things - both her own fault and not her fault - have all come together, and her reputation has been simply shattered by it. She could walk on water tomorrow and people would not be swayed.

It might be no one could now face down this mess, much as May could not handle the Brexit divisions, but she's not even done so well.

There is a question in my mind as to whether she understands and appreciates just how bad it is. She appears to be in denial. But it is a political failure, of the type we have never witnessed before on this level.

It's a baptism of fire.

Beibheirli_C said:

IshmaelZ said:

GIN1138 said:

numbertwelve said:

williamglenn said:

@RoyalFamily
🤝 The King welcomes Prime Minister Liz Truss to Buckingham Palace for the first of their regular weekly audiences.



https://twitter.com/RoyalFamily/status/1580269333582077952

"Can you give me any tips on how to boost my approval ratings?"

Chas knows a thing or two about plumbing the depths of unpopularity... Not sure his advice would help Liz much though given it took 25 years just to become merely tolerated and he had to bump off his ex-wife too...

*ducks*

An utterly infallible wanker indicator, is that wink emoji.

*ducks* is also pretty reliable.

I use that wink emoji quite frequently and I can assure you that I have never wanked.

Perhaps you meant an "... infallible winker indicator..."?

Pagan2 said:

darkage said:

Scheduled to Die: The Rise of Canada's Assisted Suicide Program


https://www.commonsense.news/p/scheduled-to-die-the-rise-of-canadas?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=cta&utm_source=substack

When we think of assisted suicide or euthanasia, we imagine a limited number of elderly people with late-stage cancer or advanced ALS in severe pain. The argument for helping them die is clear: Death is imminent. Why should they be forced to suffer?

In 2015, Canada’s Supreme Court ruled that assisted suicide was constitutional. In June 2016, Parliament passed Bill C-14, otherwise known as the Medical Assistance in Dying Act. MAiD was now the law of the land. Anyone who could show that their death was “reasonably foreseeable” was eligible...

Today, thousands of people who could live for many years are applying—successfully—to kill themselves.

Indeed, in some Canadian provinces nearly 5 percent of deaths are MAiD deaths. In 2021, the province of Quebec reported that 4.7 percent of deaths in the province were due to MAiD; in British Columbia, the number was 4.8 percent. Progressive Vancouver Island is unofficially known as the “assisted-death capital of the world,” doctors told me.

Why the dramatic increase? Over the past few years, doctors have taken an increasingly liberal view when it comes to defining “reasonably foreseeable” death. Then, last year, the government amended the original legislation, stating that one could apply for MAiD even if one’s death were not reasonably foreseeable. This second track of applicants simply had to show that they had a condition that was “intolerable to them” and could not “be relieved under conditions that they consider acceptable...

Next March, the government is scheduled to expand the pool of eligible suicide-seekers to include the mentally ill and “mature minors.” According to Canada’s Department of Justice, parents are generally “entitled to make treatment decisions on their children’s behalf. The mature minor doctrine, however, allows children deemed sufficiently mature to make their own treatment decisions.”

Do you regard this as a good thing or bad thing....its not clear?

Pagan2 said:

darkage said:

Scheduled to Die: The Rise of Canada's Assisted Suicide Program


https://www.commonsense.news/p/scheduled-to-die-the-rise-of-canadas?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=cta&utm_source=substack

When we think of assisted suicide or euthanasia, we imagine a limited number of elderly people with late-stage cancer or advanced ALS in severe pain. The argument for helping them die is clear: Death is imminent. Why should they be forced to suffer?

In 2015, Canada’s Supreme Court ruled that assisted suicide was constitutional. In June 2016, Parliament passed Bill C-14, otherwise known as the Medical Assistance in Dying Act. MAiD was now the law of the land. Anyone who could show that their death was “reasonably foreseeable” was eligible...

Today, thousands of people who could live for many years are applying—successfully—to kill themselves.

Indeed, in some Canadian provinces nearly 5 percent of deaths are MAiD deaths. In 2021, the province of Quebec reported that 4.7 percent of deaths in the province were due to MAiD; in British Columbia, the number was 4.8 percent. Progressive Vancouver Island is unofficially known as the “assisted-death capital of the world,” doctors told me.

Why the dramatic increase? Over the past few years, doctors have taken an increasingly liberal view when it comes to defining “reasonably foreseeable” death. Then, last year, the government amended the original legislation, stating that one could apply for MAiD even if one’s death were not reasonably foreseeable. This second track of applicants simply had to show that they had a condition that was “intolerable to them” and could not “be relieved under conditions that they consider acceptable...

Next March, the government is scheduled to expand the pool of eligible suicide-seekers to include the mentally ill and “mature minors.” According to Canada’s Department of Justice, parents are generally “entitled to make treatment decisions on their children’s behalf. The mature minor doctrine, however, allows children deemed sufficiently mature to make their own treatment decisions.”

Do you regard this as a good thing or bad thing....its not clear?

dixiedean said:

The provision for children's mental health is truly a scandal.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/oct/12/judge-approves-unlawful-placement-for-girl-13-at-risk-of-suicide

£9k per week for an unsuitable placement.

Luckyguy1983 said:

darkage said:

kle4 said:

MarqueeMark said:

Scott_xP said:

Like others I hear that the mood at tonight’s 1922 was very bad. I’m told MPs were “utterly shocked” by the PM’s performance. “From delusion to devastation — writ large on her face.” Feels like, if anything, her situation has worsened.
https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1580265694750715904

I don't see how she makes it to Christmas. Nothing, but nothing, is getting better for her. With no prospect on the horizon either. I mean, the Kherson garrison could surrender, Putin could get taken and shot, his successor could pull troops out of Ukraine, the world could brief a massive sigh of relief, markets could have a massive uptick. But they have already seen structural problems that need to be fixed even if that 2% scenario played out, so unlikely she would be out of the woods.

Psychologically, she must be crushed. You have put the hubristic you out there for all to see. But your self-belief is shared by nobody else.

Far stronger people have been broken by that level of destruction of your world - in full view of the world.

Yes, for her it has been a perfect storm. So many things - both her own fault and not her fault - have all come together, and her reputation has been simply shattered by it. She could walk on water tomorrow and people would not be swayed.

It might be no one could now face down this mess, much as May could not handle the Brexit divisions, but she's not even done so well.

There is a question in my mind as to whether she understands and appreciates just how bad it is. She appears to be in denial. But it is a political failure, of the type we have never witnessed before on this level.

It's a baptism of fire.

IshmaelZ said:

TheKitchenCabinet said:

IshmaelZ said:

TheKitchenCabinet said:

WillG said:

darkage said:

Leon said:

I know we're not meant to say this, and I am a "fucking appeaser", and after this I will kill myself in shame, but looking at the bald economic stats: Russia could win this war

Because it is Europe which is bleeding out, not Russia. Despite everything

Presumably this is because the price of raw materials, energy etc, which Russia exports, has gone up?

It was inevitable that Europe was going to suffer when this war started. But just as things start to get bad for Europeans, Russia keeps doing things that remind them to continue supporting the war, like bombing childrens playgrounds. And then they make territorial claims based on sham referendums that irritate its 'allies' who cannot support such acts because of the precedents it would set for their own territorial problems and disputes. So it keeps going with these bizarre own goals by the master strategist Putin.

I don't really see how Russia wins the
war because it can't easily fix the problems with its military, even if it pumps unlimited amounts of money in to it, it cannot really change anything. Russia doesn't have the motivation to win and Ukraine does.

The idea that Russia is only 3-4% down on pre-invasion GDP is clearly bunkum. They have had hundreds of thousands of young professionals leave the country, disproportionately from
skilled, productive trades. In addition, we know there are shortages in a lot of manufacturing
plants, slowing production. It's just clearly
nonsense numbers.

Yes, clearly down to energy fluctuations and / or the price of oil. A more meaningful measure would be GDP ex-energy production, which The Economist didn't comment on, which is bizarre.

Also look at this in terms of the $ - Russia is a commodity producer and commodities are priced in dollars. Which raises the question of what their GDP numbers will be like when commodities fall.

That is an absolutely shit argument. It's like saying those of working age in this country must be much better off than the elderly because look how much younger and harder working they are. Earned and unearned money are exactly equally valuable dollar for dollar.

Nope. One is more valuable than the other, if only because of the volatility angle.

If GDP growth is generated by healthy industry and a wealthy population, it has a resilience commodity prices don't.

If you want a real-life example, look at commodity rich countries in Africa. By your argument, they should be happy with remaining commodity providers if prices remain high. But any sensible person knows that's a fool's game because prices can change beyond your control. It's part of the reason why the Middle East countries are trying to diversify.

What? In any business at all demand for the product can balloon or vanish. I have probably been to a minimum of 5x as many African countries as you have. The reason they are fucked is not what you think it is.

Carnyx said:

Beibheirli_C said:

IshmaelZ said:

GIN1138 said:

numbertwelve said:

williamglenn said:

@RoyalFamily
🤝 The King welcomes Prime Minister Liz Truss to Buckingham Palace for the first of their regular weekly audiences.



https://twitter.com/RoyalFamily/status/1580269333582077952

"Can you give me any tips on how to boost my approval ratings?"

Chas knows a thing or two about plumbing the depths of unpopularity... Not sure his advice would help Liz much though given it took 25 years just to become merely tolerated and he had to bump off his ex-wife too...

*ducks*

An utterly infallible wanker indicator, is that wink emoji.

*ducks* is also pretty reliable.

I use that wink emoji quite frequently and I can assure you that I have never wanked.

Perhaps you meant an "... infallible winker indicator..."?

You won't get any reply, alas. He's got the Moderator Pox. Dunno why.

dixiedean said:

Totally forgot it was PMQ'S.
How'd it go?

Jonathan said:

MarqueeMark said:

kle4 said:

GIN1138 said:

Scott_xP said:

Truss’s economic relationship with her party - and the country - so far feels like that old joke:
Question: What's an Australian’s idea of foreplay? Answer: ‘Brace yourself, Sheila'.

But as Oct31 looms, her MPs are refusing to brace themselves for more fiscal punishment

https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1580268509585879040

I can't believe they've scheduled the next fiscal statement for Halloween... I mean headlines have already written themselves have't they?

Maybe they were envisaging positive headlines about slashing taxes?

It will be THE WALKING DEAD OF DOWNING STREET

Ghost Tory

Scott_xP said:

Extraordinary statement from a Conservative MP who attended the 1922:

“After tonight most Tory MPs accept that our current leader, given the decisions she took with the Fiscal Statement, can never provide the reassurance needed to arrest the loss of market confidence…

https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1580280661944201222

Luckyguy1983 said:

Pagan2 said:

dixiedean said:

The provision for children's mental health is truly a scandal.

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2022/oct/12/judge-approves-unlawful-placement-for-girl-13-at-risk-of-suicide

£9k per week for an unsuitable placement.

This is why there needs to be a cap. This will cost taxpayers 2.5million till she is 18. We cannot afford to spend unlimited funds on everyone. It is simply not possible. Yes I have sympathy for the girl but there has to be a cut off point for an individual where we say sorry no more.

Not trying to be callous merely what NICE and the NHS does all the time make cost judgements on whether things make sense to treat

She'd be a lot better off being sent to an very good girl's boarding school than a 'therapeutic children's home' (even the term gives me the creeps) and it would be a lot cheaper.

Scott_xP said:

Breaking: A Connecticut court rules Alex Jones owes Sandy Hook victims over $1 billion.

kyf_100 said:

dixiedean said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

darkage said:

kle4 said:

MarqueeMark said:

Scott_xP said:

Like others I hear that the mood at tonight’s 1922 was very bad. I’m told MPs were “utterly shocked” by the PM’s performance. “From delusion to devastation — writ large on her face.” Feels like, if anything, her situation has worsened.
https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1580265694750715904

I don't see how she makes it to Christmas. Nothing, but nothing, is getting better for her. With no prospect on the horizon either. I mean, the Kherson garrison could surrender, Putin could get taken and shot, his successor could pull troops out of Ukraine, the world could brief a massive sigh of relief, markets could have a massive uptick. But they have already seen structural problems that need to be fixed even if that 2% scenario played out, so unlikely she would be out of the woods.

Psychologically, she must be crushed. You have put the hubristic you out there for all to see. But your self-belief is shared by nobody else.

Far stronger people have been broken by that level of destruction of your world - in full view of the world.

Yes, for her it has been a perfect storm. So many things - both her own fault and not her fault - have all come together, and her reputation has been simply shattered by it. She could walk on water tomorrow and people would not be swayed.

It might be no one could now face down this mess, much as May could not handle the Brexit divisions, but she's not even done so well.

There is a question in my mind as to whether she understands and appreciates just how bad it is. She appears to be in denial. But it is a political failure, of the type we have never witnessed before on this level.

It's a baptism of fire.

A funeral pyre.

Don't forget, folks. This is her popularity *before* the winter blackouts start.

ydoethur said:

kyf_100 said:

dixiedean said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

darkage said:

kle4 said:

MarqueeMark said:

Scott_xP said:

Like others I hear that the mood at tonight’s 1922 was very bad. I’m told MPs were “utterly shocked” by the PM’s performance. “From delusion to devastation — writ large on her face.” Feels like, if anything, her situation has worsened.
https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1580265694750715904

I don't see how she makes it to Christmas. Nothing, but nothing, is getting better for her. With no prospect on the horizon either. I mean, the Kherson garrison could surrender, Putin could get taken and shot, his successor could pull troops out of Ukraine, the world could brief a massive sigh of relief, markets could have a massive uptick. But they have already seen structural problems that need to be fixed even if that 2% scenario played out, so unlikely she would be out of the woods.

Psychologically, she must be crushed. You have put the hubristic you out there for all to see. But your self-belief is shared by nobody else.

Far stronger people have been broken by that level of destruction of your world - in full view of the world.

Yes, for her it has been a perfect storm. So many things - both her own fault and not her fault - have all come together, and her reputation has been simply shattered by it. She could walk on water tomorrow and people would not be swayed.

It might be no one could now face down this mess, much as May could not handle the Brexit divisions, but she's not even done so well.

There is a question in my mind as to whether she understands and appreciates just how bad it is. She appears to be in denial. But it is a political failure, of the type we have never witnessed before on this level.

It's a baptism of fire.

A funeral pyre.

Don't forget, folks. This is her popularity *before* the winter blackouts start.

I would say the lights have gone out for her already.

kyf_100 said:

dixiedean said:

Luckyguy1983 said:

darkage said:

kle4 said:

MarqueeMark said:

Scott_xP said:

Like others I hear that the mood at tonight’s 1922 was very bad. I’m told MPs were “utterly shocked” by the PM’s performance. “From delusion to devastation — writ large on her face.” Feels like, if anything, her situation has worsened.
https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1580265694750715904

I don't see how she makes it to Christmas. Nothing, but nothing, is getting better for her. With no prospect on the horizon either. I mean, the Kherson garrison could surrender, Putin could get taken and shot, his successor could pull troops out of Ukraine, the world could brief a massive sigh of relief, markets could have a massive uptick. But they have already seen structural problems that need to be fixed even if that 2% scenario played out, so unlikely she would be out of the woods.

Psychologically, she must be crushed. You have put the hubristic you out there for all to see. But your self-belief is shared by nobody else.

Far stronger people have been broken by that level of destruction of your world - in full view of the world.

Yes, for her it has been a perfect storm. So many things - both her own fault and not her fault - have all come together, and her reputation has been simply shattered by it. She could walk on water tomorrow and people would not be swayed.

It might be no one could now face down this mess, much as May could not handle the Brexit divisions, but she's not even done so well.

There is a question in my mind as to whether she understands and appreciates just how bad it is. She appears to be in denial. But it is a political failure, of the type we have never witnessed before on this level.

It's a baptism of fire.

A funeral pyre.

Don't forget, folks. This is her popularity *before* the winter blackouts start.

MarqueeMark said:

Scott_xP said:

Senior Tory & Truss backer tells me '22 was worst they'd witnessed for any PM

"There's a lot of Qs about Kwasi. MPs think he is a busted flush already. Maybe Liz'll have to make changes

"I feel embarrassed to have sold [the PM] as a safe pair of hands. I sold them a pup"

https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1580276459154784256

Her first public hustings session showed the real Liz Truss. The worst of the candidates offered up.

Anybody who thinks that Liz Truss was a "safe pair of hands" should be seriously considering their career choice. Because we put the security of the nation's finances in people making that judgment call.

Tory MPs. What a bunch of muppets.

Scott_xP said:

“Something will need to happen as we can’t go on like this for over 2 years”, one level-headed Tory MP tells me.

Little over a month since Liz Truss became PM and already Conservative MPs are seriously suggesting she may have to go. What a turn of events.

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1580289006905937922

darkage said:

Pagan2 said:

darkage said:

Scheduled to Die: The Rise of Canada's Assisted Suicide Program


https://www.commonsense.news/p/scheduled-to-die-the-rise-of-canadas?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=cta&utm_source=substack

When we think of assisted suicide or euthanasia, we imagine a limited number of elderly people with late-stage cancer or advanced ALS in severe pain. The argument for helping them die is clear: Death is imminent. Why should they be forced to suffer?

In 2015, Canada’s Supreme Court ruled that assisted suicide was constitutional. In June 2016, Parliament passed Bill C-14, otherwise known as the Medical Assistance in Dying Act. MAiD was now the law of the land. Anyone who could show that their death was “reasonably foreseeable” was eligible...

Today, thousands of people who could live for many years are applying—successfully—to kill themselves.

Indeed, in some Canadian provinces nearly 5 percent of deaths are MAiD deaths. In 2021, the province of Quebec reported that 4.7 percent of deaths in the province were due to MAiD; in British Columbia, the number was 4.8 percent. Progressive Vancouver Island is unofficially known as the “assisted-death capital of the world,” doctors told me.

Why the dramatic increase? Over the past few years, doctors have taken an increasingly liberal view when it comes to defining “reasonably foreseeable” death. Then, last year, the government amended the original legislation, stating that one could apply for MAiD even if one’s death were not reasonably foreseeable. This second track of applicants simply had to show that they had a condition that was “intolerable to them” and could not “be relieved under conditions that they consider acceptable...

Next March, the government is scheduled to expand the pool of eligible suicide-seekers to include the mentally ill and “mature minors.” According to Canada’s Department of Justice, parents are generally “entitled to make treatment decisions on their children’s behalf. The mature minor doctrine, however, allows children deemed sufficiently mature to make their own treatment decisions.”

Do you regard this as a good thing or bad thing....its not clear?

Its just a story that I thought was interesting. I assume it is true but haven't checked out the source. I wasn't trying to write a header about assisted dying.

There is a powerful idea that people should be stopped from committing suicide. I find it interesting that a society could move to a position where suicide is not a taboo and is actually facilitated by the state, as seems to be the case here. The idea that children who are 12 can make this decision seems very odd (under the 'mature minor' rule).

TimS said:

Labour need to lay down a VONC. Tomorrow. Too good an opportunity to miss.

StuartDickson said:

Londoners outside the Supreme Court back indyref2 over 'Westminster crooks' thenational.scot/news/23043552.…

https://twitter.com/helen91155348/status/1580283753263661056?s=46&t=JqZDbKABYXg4uCmV-rI_Og

Nigelb said:

MarqueeMark said:

Scott_xP said:

Senior Tory & Truss backer tells me '22 was worst they'd witnessed for any PM

"There's a lot of Qs about Kwasi. MPs think he is a busted flush already. Maybe Liz'll have to make changes

"I feel embarrassed to have sold [the PM] as a safe pair of hands. I sold them a pup"

https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1580276459154784256

Her first public hustings session showed the real Liz Truss. The worst of the candidates offered up.

Anybody who thinks that Liz Truss was a "safe pair of hands" should be seriously considering their career choice. Because we put the security of the nation's finances in people making that judgment call.

Tory MPs. What a bunch of muppets.

Yes… and the party members (or at least a large majority of them) make the MPs look like savants.

StuartDickson said:

MarqueeMark said:

Scott_xP said:

Extraordinary statement from a Conservative MP who attended the 1922:

“After tonight most Tory MPs accept that our current leader, given the decisions she took with the Fiscal Statement, can never provide the reassurance needed to arrest the loss of market confidence…

https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1580280661944201222

I wonder how may letters are in? It doesn't immediately matter if the 22 don't change the rules. But the 22 is a big part of the problem.

Perhaps Conservative MPs need a new iteration of the 22?

Definitely.

The 22 is crippling the party.

Leon said:

StuartDickson said:

Londoners outside the Supreme Court back indyref2 over 'Westminster crooks' thenational.scot/news/23043552.…

https://twitter.com/helen91155348/status/1580283753263661056?s=46&t=JqZDbKABYXg4uCmV-rI_Og

A stunning intervention from The National, which will no doubt be enjoyed by its solitary remaining reader

Taz said:

Fairliered said:

I feel sorry for the ordinary Conservative MPs who have diligently represented their constituents over the last years, didn’t vote for Truss, but are going to lose their seats because their party has been taken over by extremists.
Also, when you look at the demographics of the people voting for Truss, there is a case for the leadership vote being removed from members over state pension age.

True. But did this same MPs care about the same thing happening to diligent local councillors when they were Losing their seats ? It’s only an issue when it affects them.