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Biden’s moving back up in the WH2024 betting – politicalbetting.com
Biden’s moving back up in the WH2024 betting – politicalbetting.com
One thing that is becoming clear is that Joe Biden is moving upwards in the White House race betting for 2024 but will he stand given that he celebrates his 80th birthday next month?
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If we were instead looking at EEC12 then the appropriate comparison would be with the 20 or so richest US states as of the start of the 1990s, whichever they were.
If the situation was more benign he'd probably call it a day.
If they go for Harris or AOC or Newsom then Trump or DeSantis would see that as an election they could win on Woke
Who had control of the communist party in the Soviet Union?
The General Secretary. Fact.
Who has control over UK Trade Unions?
The General Secretary. Fact.
Whose been handed much more control over Policy and Communications in Labour today?
The General Secretary.
Starmer not even allowed to appoint and have a Chief of Staff anymore! 😆
Labour is always interesting at the moment , though. I think if anything unions have had too little power in the US and the UK for 30 years, leading to increasingly widely recognised distortions in their economies. All these things matter in the moment, with Labour so close to power and union man Biden already there.
EU27 GDP as % of US: 87% in 2021 from 85% in 2001.
UK GDP as % of US: 13% in 2021 from 16% in 2001. All of that decline has happened since 2015.
Thanks to Brexit we are once again the sick man of Europe.
M30A1 227mm rockets loaded onto a Ukrainian M142 HIMARS with inscriptions suggesting revenge for Russian missile strikes on Ukrainian cities.
M30A1 - GMLRS rocket that replaces M30's submunitions with around 182k tungsten fragments for area effects without unexploded ordnance.
https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1579790973739024387
Keep Trump out at all costs.
If we could move Harris to supreme court and put Buttigieg in as Veep then we have someone more far useful for the inevitable handover mid-term if Biden wins 2nd term.
You're aware that there's a big pile of people layable for POTUS at ~ 30s -> 200-1 every 4 years for the simple fact they're non runners ?
M Obama is very much in that group.
@jessicaelgot
PM’s spokesman confirms today he will no longer be attending cabinet. Only ministers in the room, as per PM’s request. Under previous government, spokesman always attended in order to be able to answer questions on the discussion & for transparency.
https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1579785299009605634
If this is a remortgage and people are getting "trapped" on expensive variable rates because they are no longer eligible for new fixed rate offers, this is really going to end in tears...
JUST IN - Russia adds Zuckerberg's Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, to the list of "terrorist and extremist organizations," state media reports.
https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/1579798547608002562
What a roller coaster we are now on.
Also anything which locks people down to one provider also tends to result in abuse by the provider of their captive audience.
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-to-quickly-send-air-defense-systems-to-ukraine/a-63397544
Of course, there are defensive missile systems available in the West which could stop most of these attacks in their tracks (hypersonic perhaps excepted), without even getting into a debate about NATO vs Russian aircraft.
But they need to be supplied.
1) Announce that he's running
2) The VP can't run against her own president so he ends up in a debate against a couple of oddballs and [Gutsy Outsider]
3) Underperform in Iowa or wherever, and announce that he's so impressed by [Gutsy Outsider] that he's going to stand down and endorse them.
4) Kamala has to scramble to put together a campaign but by that time she's already lost, if she can even get on the ballot
All our talk of a referendum earlier will be rather academic once the school kids have seized Waverley.
Now let the Leopards out to play, Germany.
That, or send Harris to the Supreme Court next year.
If you want to make individual nation comparisons, then 2021 is extremely dodgy due to Covid and different nations measure GDP under Covid differently, the last non-Covid data available is for 2019.
1993 was when the EEC became the EU and was roughly a quarter of a century before 2019 so seems an appropriate starting point to look at, so lets look since then.
1993 (Start of EU):
USA 6.859 tn
France 1.323 (19%)
Germany 2.071 tn (30%)
Italy 1.065 tn (16% )
UK 1.061 tn (15%)
Big 4 Combined 5.52 tn (80%)
2019 (Final pre-Covid year):
USA $20.94 tn
France 2.716 tn (13% down 6%)
Germany 3.861 tn (18% down 12%)
Italy 2.005 tn (10% down 6%)
UK 2.831 tn (14% down 1%)
Big 4 Combined 11.413 tn (55% down 35%)
The UK has performed least-worst of the four nations in that time period, but all are down considerably.
Hardly a roaring success for the EU Single Market, is it?
One might think it remarkable that this lesson had to have been learned but there we are. There has been a real and material change in the balance of power between our elected officials and our technocrats in the latter's favour. I would guess now that the Labour government post 2024 is going to find that more than a bit of a nuisance.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_on_Scottish_independence
If the SNP can't get regular 60+% support for independence under this shambles of a government (which will continue to say No) what chance can they have of a regular 60+% once there is a decent moderate unionist government in place?
IMHO NS knows perfectly well that this isn't going to happen because there isn't the real support for it. And there isn't support because it is the sub-optimal option. NS is exceedingly weak on her difficult issues: currency; central bank; EU and land borders (see Brexit and NI multiplied by 50); we support NATO but oppose central plank of policy and look like appeasers.
The SC stunt and next GE stunt are designed to get NS to about 10 years in leadership without having to bring the matter to a head and keep being able to blame someone else for the hard fact that Scottish support simply isn't sufficiently robust for SNP to succeed. She will stand down by 2025.
Markets aren't stupid, if they expect the Bank to be a seller, instead of a purchaser, of bonds then they'll be looking beyond this weeks actions.
The Bank needs to stop messing around. No point buying this week and signalling you'll be selling far more afterwards, and expecting that signal not to be taken into account.
If the Bank wants some stability, they need to take QT off the table. Say they will neither be purchasing, nor selling bonds for the foreseeable future unless circumstances change.
FFS
Shocked.
https://twitter.com/LKTranslator/status/1579805953503154177
The oldest justices now are Thomas (74) and Alito (72), both of whom you would expect to hang for a Republican President and Senate. The oldest leftwing justice is Sotomayor (68)
So we shouldn't expect a Supreme Court vacancy soon, barring an unexpected death.
OOOOOOOOOOOOOH.
Anywhere offering a GOP running mate market?
EDIT: Yup on there on Betfair 4.1/50. Not attractive odds!
I’m sure it can be pointed out to her, that she can either go now or wait potentially ten more years of a Republican President / Senate, and look at what happened when RBG tried that…
Depending on the election results, there might be a very small window of opportunity in November and December, to effect the change, with SS standing down as soon as it’s clear the Senate will be lost.
https://www.ft.com/content/d9e46bb3-6bdd-416e-9ec6-e43b8af5fb30
@TulsiGabbard
I can no longer remain in today’s Democratic Party that is now under the complete control of an elitist cabal of warmongers driven by cowardly wokeness, who divide us by racializing every issue & stoke anti-white racism, actively work to undermine our God-given freedoms, are…
https://twitter.com/TulsiGabbard/status/1579788950696185859
The BoE is still continuing with their £80bn proposal.
The Bank need to take QT off the table. The ECB are not talking about QT right now.
Now, what’s Tulsi Gabbard up to? Running for something as an independent or Libertarian, or sweet-talking DeSantis and Trump to be on the ticket?
Maybe I have misunderstood the way back when machine.
I think Biden is doing a damn good job for someone who is claimed to be senile. Step-perfect on Ukraine and has also steered some tricky domestic legislation through. This relies on him marshalling the interest groups and making the calls. He's not relying on talented underlings.
Whether he should stand again is another question.
I guess we should applaud how very liberal they have become in the USA - that you can now shill for Putin's Russia and the previous President says "Way to go, girl....". Having shilled for Putin himself.
1 - The expressed desire to inflict violence on political opponents is clearly beyond the pale, and I'm amazed that this individual is still in his job. Those tweets may well be criminal.
2 - I think the issue with TERF is currently used - as a demonising term for anyone who needs to be abused, rather than where it came from. Language can become derogatory in its use.
Consider, eg, "Karen", for one example.)
TERF is used, for example, of JK Rowling, who is anything but a "Radical Feminist" (which aiui is a smallish subset of the broader feminist movement).
It seems to be to be a tribal term used to avoid actually debating anything.
It would be unconscionable to slash public services just to save the face of these two idiots.
But in any case I thought we were past "bad person supports X therefore X is also bad".
The government have sidelined the OBR because they are sick to death of politics where scientists tell government and MPs what to do. Surely it should be other way round, government and politicians make the decisions and decide the direction of travel - scientists and economists brought in to help realise and achieve politicians vision.
Now faced with these two arguments, which side are you really on?