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Both Truss and Kwarteng now have net approval ratings of MINUS 44% – politicalbetting.com

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  • I would like to like that posting but I hate avocado so I won't. Doesn't avocado mean 'testicle' in some South American language or other? Or is that just an urban myth?
    Personally suspect at least 50% (likely much higher) of all "avocado" dip sold in UK is actually mushy peas.
  • HYUFD said:

    Even if you think they should have no say in government, party members must at least have a say in picking their leader in opposition. The public can then confirm if they agree with that choice at the next general election.

    If only MPs get a say on the next PM for a party in power, then Labour would also have to agree to remove the membership having a vote in power too. In 2007 for example, John McDonnell wanted to challenge Brown for leader and had John McDonnell got enough MPs nominations he would have gone to a ballot including Labour members and affiliated supporters. McDonnell could therefore in theory have ended up PM, not Gordon Brown
    Yep. It should be put through as a law applying to both (or to be fair as it may happen in the future, all) parties. Any change in Party Leader when they are PM can only be done by a vote of their party MPs. Members/affiliates etc can have no part in it. And that result must then be ratified by a full vote of the Commons on the first opportunity as a vote of Confidence.
  • They do, its called taxation.

    The simple compromise would be to put a tax surcharge on pensions. We have NI on earnt income, yet leave pensions untouched for NI. So lets have double the current NI rate charged on pension income, triple on DB pensions.

    Pensioners won't be so keen to vote
    through NI tax rises then anymore.
    Completely agree pension tax is the way to go

    Not sure DB being taxed more is equitable - the amounts rather than the source is the issue (though clearly there’s a correlation)
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,005
    Beaten like JRM by Nanny.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,324
    edited October 2022
    Bank confirms pension funds almost collapsed amid market meltdown
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/oct/06/bank-of-england-confirms-pension-funds-almost-collapsed-amid-market-meltdown

    Any suggestion that this was anything but a home grown problem, triggered by the Chancellor, is clearly wrong.
    … In the period immediately before the Bank intervened, yields on 30-year UK government bonds rose by 35 basis points on two separate days. The biggest daily rise before last week, on data going back to the turn of the century, was 29 basis points.

    Measured over a four-day period, the increase was more than twice as large as the biggest move since 2000, which occurred during a “dash for cash” at the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic when global financial markets plunged into one of the worst meltdowns since the Wall Street crash on 1929.…
  • HYUFD said:

    Even if you think they should have no say in government, party members must at least have a say in picking their leader in opposition. The public can then confirm if they agree with that choice at the next general election.

    If only MPs get a say on the next PM for a party in power, then Labour would also have to agree to remove the membership having a vote in power too. In 2007 for example, John McDonnell wanted to challenge Brown for leader and had John McDonnell got enough MPs nominations he would have gone to a ballot including Labour members and affiliated supporters. McDonnell could therefore in theory have ended up PM, not Gordon Brown
    Your theoretical objection is based on alternate history. I give you real history and it is this: the Tory membership is responsible for giving us Boris Johnson and Lizzy Lightweight. The former started the destruction of the Tory brand, dragged it through the sewer and destroyed its few USPs, and now Lizzy is finishing the job.

    Thanks to these two populist idiots we will have a Labour government for 20 years or more. Sensible right of centre government in this country is finished. And "Boris" is the primary culprit. His election victory which you so foolishly think absolves him of all sins, will prove to be pyrrhic victory.
  • Labour landslide so I’m smashed
  • Pints
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    MikeL said:

    How about this for a compromise on the Leadership rules that the Conservative Party could probably get through.

    1) Same as currently to choose Final 2.

    2) MPs and members then vote separately on Final 2 and the result is a 50:50 Electoral College.

    In recent election, Truss won members 57-43. So for Sunak to have won overall, he would have needed to win the MPs by more than 57-43.

    Seems a fair compromise. Members still play a major role. But if MPs want Candidate X by whatever margin, then members must want Candidate Y by a bigger margin for member choice to prevail.

    Con Party needs to make this change now - and I suspect they could get it through.

    If they can't the parliamentary party needs to defect en masse and reinvent itself as the Donservatives or some such, just to sidestep this rule.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Pints

    Litres
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Is that happening? And is the state picking up the tab? DB mainly means Civil Service, where the employer can't go bust. Pots have nothing to do with it unless the employer is insolvent, the whole point of DB is it's not pot dependent.
    The Civil Service pot is empty then and the DB pensions should cease. Sorry, but those on DB pensions voted in governments that gave them contracts promising payments, but didn't set aside the money to pay for it. So there's no money left, so should be no DB.

    DB should have been abolished all at once rather than closed. The basic fairness of unfunded pensions was supposed to be one generation telling the next "you fund my pension, then you'll get yours when you retire" but that deal was broken years ago.

    People working today are getting taxed to fund unfunded pensions that they're not eligible. That's neither reasonable nor fair.

    Everyone who was mis-sold a DB pension should feel free to be angry about it, but the pot is empty and today's workers shouldn't be picking up the tab to something they're not entitled to themselves.
  • Sandpit said:

    It’s much easier out here. A year ago, the fourteen pounds was nineteen dollars, now it’s only sixteen!
    William Hague 2001 - Save the Pound!

    Liz Truss 2022 - Shed the Pound(s)!

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Personally suspect at least 50% (likely much higher) of all "avocado" dip sold in UK is actually mushy peas.
    Does Peter Mandleson eat that much of the stuff?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,221
    JK Rowling calls Nicola Sturgeon a 'destroyer of women's rights'.

    @jk_rowling
    I stand in solidarity with @ForWomenScot and all women protesting and speaking outside the Scottish parliament. #NoToSelfID


    image

    https://twitter.com/jk_rowling/status/1577964493702938626
  • Angela Rayner and Rachel Reeves agree with you:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/aug/19/work-pay-labour-food-banks-angela-rayner-rachel-reeves
    Some Conservative MPS as well. I see Kevin Hollinrake has been pushing hard for the adoption of the Living Wage Foundation's rates rather than the misnamed and inadequate National Living Wage rate pushed by the Government.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,942
    How on earth did we end up with this Nicola Sturgeon and JK Rowling situation? Mindboggling.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,073
    edited October 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Quite right too, the Conservative Party should not be the only main UK party which does not give its members any say in who is elected its leader.

    MPs get to pick 2 candidates to put to the membership, if they cannot find 2 candidates they can live with then that is their fault
    Old ways were better on this. But its hard to go back, as members are super entitled- as we've seen with corbynite tendencies they think they are more important than the country.
  • Nigelb said:

    Bank confirms pension funds almost collapsed amid market meltdown
    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/oct/06/bank-of-england-confirms-pension-funds-almost-collapsed-amid-market-meltdown

    Any suggestion that this was anything but a home grown problem, triggered by the Chancellor, is clearly wrong.
    … In the period immediately before the Bank intervened, yields on 30-year UK government bonds rose by 35 basis points on two separate days. The biggest daily rise before last week, on data going back to the turn of the century, was 29 basis points.

    Measured over a four-day period, the increase was more than twice as large as the biggest move since 2000, which occurred during a “dash for cash” at the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic when global financial markets plunged into one of the worst meltdowns since the Wall Street crash on 1929.…

    I note that the Bank analysis of a four day period has omitted entirely the impact of their own decision to engage in eighty billion pounds of Quantitative Tightening, which was announced the day betore so also happened within a four day period of the Mini Budget.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,335
    edited October 2022

    Your theoretical objection is based on alternate history. I give you real history and it is this: the Tory membership is responsible for giving us Boris Johnson and Lizzy Lightweight. The former started the destruction of the Tory brand, dragged it through the sewer and destroyed its few USPs, and now Lizzy is finishing the job.

    Thanks to these two populist idiots we will have a Labour government for 20 years or more. Sensible right of centre government in this country is finished. And "Boris" is the primary culprit. His election victory which you so foolishly think absolves him of all sins, will prove to be pyrrhic victory.
    The public elected Boris to be our PM by a landslide in 2019, that is not an issue. The Tory membership also gave us Cameron who was elected by the public too. May was elected by MPs alone and while she did not get a majority still won most seats.

    The issue is Truss in that she never won a general election and is miles behind in the polls and already deeply unpopular just weeks into the role.

    If Boris had not won we would have had Corbyn PM and still not got Brexit done, a Starmer premiership is much less of a worry than that. Though the electorate is volatile. If Starmer wins and fails to deliver, he leads a country facing strikes and high inflation still and tax rises then the pendulum will soon swing back to the Tories again as with the volatile 1970s
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,220
    edited October 2022
    Has it actually been conclusively determined that the 'no VONC for 12 months after new leader takes office' is an actual bona fide rule? I've seen plenty of mention of it here but I've not been able to find conclusive evidence that this is actually the case.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,696
    edited October 2022

    Worth pointing out that those couple of post war generations were pretty unique in terms of the economic development at the time. Go back one more generation and you find young who could not afford their own house - perhaps ever, with large multigenerational families all living together, more often than not in rented accommodation and with very poor pension or retirement provision.

    I am not using this as an argument against what you are saying. I agree we need to rebalance. But I wonder if the last couple of generations were really just a post war boom aberration and we are now unfortunately returning to the norm.

    One thing I would say - particularly with regard to single working families - is that where I think we have gone most wrong is in allowing companies to drive down wages as a means of increasing profits. This is why I like the minimum wage so much and think it should be increased significantly. The social security system since WW2 has allowed companies to pay wages below a basic living standard and effectively use the taxpayer to subsidise their wage bill. This is something that should be dealt with, most simply by increasing the minimum wage significantly. It should not be the case in the UK or the rest of Europe that companies are able to pay full time employees wages that are below a living wage and expect the taxpayer to make up the difference.
    No because the fixes are available, ranging from easy to difficult -

    Make owning a home cheaper and letting existing private residential property economically unviable.

    Cut student fees back down to what I paid (£1k per year) and massively increase university funding.

    Fix the DB pension liabilities carried by the state and private sectors.

    Increase DC minimum contributions to 8% employee and 5% employer and no longer allow opting out.

    Increase the minimum wage to make it enough to live on.

    Put a lifetime cap on healthcare costs, ending the effective unlimited liability carried by the state.

    Stop funding type diabetes treatment in full on the NHS, make prescriptions for self inflicted chronic diseases chargeable again.

    State pension taper for high earning individuals (like my dad) for whom it is pin money coupled with an increase in the state pension for those people it isnt pin money so they can have a better standard of living in old age.

    Merging of NI, employer and employee, with income tax.

    Raising CT to 30% and having unlimited investment allowances for capital, research and development for businesses of all sizes.

    Huge, huge investment in education and skills, literal doubling of the education budget so that university fees can be cut and education standards can be raised.

    These are policy examples that would help to address the balance between older people and working people. Neither Labour nor the Tories have the cojones to pursue any of them.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729

    The Civil Service pot is empty then and the DB pensions should cease. Sorry, but those on DB pensions voted in governments that gave them contracts promising payments, but didn't set aside the money to pay for it. So there's no money left, so should be no DB.

    DB should have been abolished all at once rather than closed. The basic fairness of unfunded pensions was supposed to be one generation telling the next "you fund my pension, then you'll get yours when you retire" but that deal was broken years ago.

    People working today are getting taxed to fund unfunded pensions that they're not eligible. That's neither reasonable nor fair.

    Everyone who was mis-sold a DB pension should feel free to be angry about it, but the pot is empty and today's workers shouldn't be picking up the tab to something they're not entitled to themselves.
    Your argument is that there is no money, essentially because there is a deficit. But in that case there is no money for everything. Bye bye NHS, and nobody has the right to complain.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,870

    The Civil Service pot is empty then and the DB pensions should cease. Sorry, but those on DB pensions voted in governments that gave them contracts promising payments, but didn't set aside the money to pay for it. So there's no money left, so should be no DB.

    DB should have been abolished all at once rather than closed. The basic fairness of unfunded pensions was supposed to be one generation telling the next "you fund my pension, then you'll get yours when you retire" but that deal was broken years ago.

    People working today are getting taxed to fund unfunded pensions that they're not eligible. That's neither reasonable nor fair.

    Everyone who was mis-sold a DB pension should feel free to be angry about it, but the pot is empty and today's workers shouldn't be picking up the tab to something they're not entitled to themselves.
    I would point out this government did actually try something along those lines and got reversed in the McCloud judgement. Because they didn't consult properly on a major contractual change.

    If you have a contract saying you are guaranteed to be provided with bread, and then the supplier says sorry, we only have yeast, you are entitled to say that isn't the contract you agreed. Which is roughly the situation with pensions.

    Whether or not the action to change it should have been take some years ago, the fact is we are where we are.

    The depressing irony is that a DB scheme for today's taxpayers could be managed, but the boomer generation will be trying to take all the money so they end up getting shafted.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,335
    kle4 said:

    Old ways were better on this. But its hard to go back, as members are super entitled- as we've seen with corbynite tendencies they think they are more important than the country.
    Though the current system does risk Labour, if it wins the next election and is still in power in a decade, replacing Starmer or a centrist successor like Streeting with a Corbynite candidate if that candidate wins the Labour membership, without needing to win a general election either.

    The current system can therefore benefit the hard left as much as the hard right if a party is in power long enough
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,696
    EPG said:

    Your argument is that there is no money, essentially because there is a deficit. But in that case there is no money for everything. Bye bye NHS, and nobody has the right to complain.
    The nation ceases to function without the NHS. The world keeps turning after converting DB pensions to DC pensions.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,714
    edited October 2022

    The Civil Service pot is empty then and the DB pensions should cease. Sorry, but those on DB pensions voted in governments that gave them contracts promising payments, but didn't set aside the money to pay for it. So there's no money left, so should be no DB.

    DB should have been abolished all at once rather than closed. The basic fairness of unfunded pensions was supposed to be one generation telling the next "you fund my pension, then you'll get yours when you retire" but that deal was broken years ago.

    People working today are getting taxed to fund unfunded pensions that they're not eligible. That's neither reasonable nor fair.

    Everyone who was mis-sold a DB pension should feel free to be angry about it, but the pot is empty and today's workers shouldn't be picking up the tab to something they're not entitled to themselves.
    Quite right too. All those millions of retired civil servants, local government workers, teachers and health workers sitting on their gold-plated pensions should be pushed into penury. Cancel their pensions! Make them use food banks! That'll show them.

    Sometimes, you veer into being quite bonkers.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    The Civil Service pot is empty then and the DB pensions should cease. Sorry, but those on DB pensions voted in governments that gave them contracts promising payments, but didn't set aside the money to pay for it. So there's no money left, so should be no DB.

    DB should have been abolished all at once rather than closed. The basic fairness of unfunded pensions was supposed to be one generation telling the next "you fund my pension, then you'll get yours when you retire" but that deal was broken years ago.

    People working today are getting taxed to fund unfunded pensions that they're not eligible. That's neither reasonable nor fair.

    Everyone who was mis-sold a DB pension should feel free to be angry about it, but the pot is empty and today's workers shouldn't be picking up the tab to something they're not entitled to themselves.
    Gibberish, a contract is a contract. You would presumably feel disgruntled if your employer stopped paying you because there was nothing left in the salary pot?
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,153
    edited October 2022
    EPG said:

    Your argument is that there is no money, essentially because there is a deficit. But in that case there is no money for everything. Bye bye NHS, and nobody has the right to complain.
    Well yes, unfunded things are cut all the time, that's democracy.

    If the money had been actually set aside then there'd be money for the pensions, but there isn't. Instead people working today are expected to be liable to fund pensions they know they'll never receive, while also contributing to their own too.

    In what universe is that fair?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729
    MaxPB said:

    The nation ceases to function without the NHS. The world keeps turning after converting DB pensions to DC pensions.
    You said yourself that some NHS users should be asked to pay for it. Same same.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192

    Quite right too. All those millions of retired civil servants, local government workers, teachers and health workers sitting on their gold-plated pensions should be pushed into penury. Cancel their pensions! Make them use food banks! That'll show them.

    Sometimes, you veer into being quite bonkers.
    Sometimes?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,696

    Quite right too. All those millions of retired civil servants, local government workers, teachers and health workers sitting on their gold-plated pensions should be pushed into penury. Cancel their pensions! Make them use food banks! That'll show them.

    Sometimes, you veer into being quite bonkers.
    No one is suggesting that, what is being suggested is that the DB funds be converted to DC funds at a formula with no income guarantee. There's no doubt it will leave a lot of people feeling hard done by, but the alternative is far, far worse and the impoverishment of future generations outside of a few lucky people with very well paid jobs.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Gibberish, a contract is a contract. You would presumably feel disgruntled if your employer stopped paying you because there was nothing left in the salary pot?
    Yes I would.

    It happens too when there's no money left.

    Whatever is left in the pension pot should be used for the pension. No more, no less.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192
    HYUFD said:

    Though the current system does risk Labour, if it wins the next election and is still in power in a decade, replacing Starmer or a centrist successor like Streeting with a Corbynite candidate if that candidate wins the Labour membership, without needing to win a general election either.

    The current system can therefore benefit the hard left as much as the hard right if a party is in power long enough
    And you think that is a good thing?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,696
    EPG said:

    You said yourself that some NHS users should be asked to pay for it. Same same.
    A cut, not closing it down entirely.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729
    Wanting to back out of a contract like DB pensions is not a very good reason to renege. It's more acceptable to go bankrupt in such situations, selling off assets so that the promise can be made good to the greatest extent possible. Alternatively the state can just make it clear to investors and workers that when it signs legal contracts, they aren't worth the paper they are written on, like one of those countries that changes its military leader every six years.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,335

    And you think that is a good thing?
    Not especially, I have already said below I would be OK with both main parties limiting their memberships role in leadership elections to when they are in opposition and out of power
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,221
    Looks like a possible car bomb in the Moscow financial district.

    https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1578086542395965456
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,714
    MaxPB said:

    No one is suggesting that, what is being suggested is that the DB funds be converted to DC funds at a formula with no income guarantee. There's no doubt it will leave a lot of people feeling hard done by, but the alternative is far, far worse and the impoverishment of future generations outside of a few lucky people with very well paid jobs.
    I think a careful reading of Bart's post suggests he was, actually. No money in the pot, no pension.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,307
    IshmaelZ said:

    Sounds value.
    Well, that's my lunch taken care of in November and December - well done, Asda. I imagine the soup choice won't include lobster bisque but never mind.

    I could emulate @Leon - nice picture of my Asda Cream of Chicken Soup, Bread Roll and Coffee - who needs fancy oysters?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729
    MaxPB said:

    No one is suggesting that, what is being suggested is that the DB funds be converted to DC funds at a formula with no income guarantee. There's no doubt it will leave a lot of people feeling hard done by, but the alternative is far, far worse and the impoverishment of future generations outside of a few lucky people with very well paid jobs.
    Maybe banks should have been allowed to do the same with mortgages during the last 15 years of low rates. Sorry, we didn't expect this so we're taking more cash than we contractually agreed.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,870

    Has it actually been conclusively determined that the 'no VONC for 12 months after new leader takes office' is an actual bona fide rule? I've seen plenty of mention of it here but I've not been able to find conclusive evidence that this is actually the case.

    The rules for electing the leader are controlled by the 1922 committee. They don't publish their procedures. They can change them but there is a procedure for doing so. Brady can't just make it up on the fly.

    My instinct is that he wouldn't accept letters until twelve months have passed because of the VONC similarity whether or not it's a formal rule. But I'm not Graham Brady and I don't know his thinking, or what might prompt him to change the rules.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    MaxPB said:

    No one is suggesting that, what is being suggested is that the DB funds be converted to DC funds at a formula with no income guarantee. There's no doubt it will leave a lot of people feeling hard done by, but the alternative is far, far worse and the impoverishment of future generations outside of a few lucky people with very well paid jobs.
    To be fair, I think that is what BR is suggesting though. The civil service DB pension pot is technically empty, so no one in the civil service should get any pension.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited October 2022
    Gilt yields continuing to creep back up after the BoE’s special monetary operation.

    Uk 10 year currently 4.2%

    Are we in the eye of the storm?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Well yes, unfunded things are cut all the time, that's democracy.

    If the money had been actually set aside then there'd be money for the pensions, but there isn't. Instead people working today are expected to be liable to fund pensions they know they'll never receive, while also contributing to their own too.

    In what universe is that fair?
    "Things" does not include contractual obligations; that's the rule of law. Which, again, I thought you were a fan of.
  • stodge said:

    Well, that's my lunch taken care of in November and December - well done, Asda. I imagine the soup choice won't include lobster bisque but never mind.

    I could emulate @Leon - nice picture of my Asda Cream of Chicken Soup, Bread Roll and Coffee - who needs fancy oysters?
    Perhaps you could get some oyster crackers? AND rely on the savor of your imagination!
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,942
    "Welcome to the Tory apocalypse
    Conservatism came to conference to die
    BY WILL LLOYD

    Last year, the Conservative Party was in the grip of decadence. This year, it faces apocalypse. Their 2021 conference, in Manchester, was like The Wolf of Wall Street. Wine poured from the sky. Laughter ricocheted off the walls. They all thought, everyone did, that the Conservatives had another decade in power.

    This year, in Birmingham, it was more 28 Days Later. The list of absent MPs, led by Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak, stretched back to London. “There’s nobody here,” one member who attended the last 12 conferences mourned. “It feels deserted.” Twelve long years. We have tasted every philosophical flavour of Conservatism: David Cameron’s bougie-patrician, nudge theory-driven paternalism. Theresa May’s fretful Home Counties authoritarianism. Boris Johnson’s giggly One Nation boosterism. All gone."

    https://unherd.com/2022/10/welcome-to-the-tory-apocalypse/
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,870
    Really? That surprises me a bit, I thought of you as having generally quite liberal tendencies (your fanatical devotion to the SNP apart).
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,220
    HYUFD said:

    Though the current system does risk Labour, if it wins the next election and is still in power in a decade, replacing Starmer or a centrist successor like Streeting with a Corbynite candidate if that candidate wins the Labour membership, without needing to win a general election either.

    The current system can therefore benefit the hard left as much as the hard right if a party is in power long enough
    I have seen the idea floated of passing a law that a parliament automatically dissolves after a short period following a new PM taking office (mid-parliament).

    I don't really like the idea much, it has to be said. Strikes me (like the FTPA) as creating unintended consequences - cementing a bad leader in place because MPs are scared they will have to face a GE if they move to depose them.

    But I'm not sure what the solution is. I do think Truss' election has pushed the envelope compared to previous mid-parliament leadership takeovers because she has been so forceful about her view that the governments before her have been wrong on economic policy - and decided to steer the ship away from it. Perhaps she is feeling the consequences of this in the polls though. Doesn't help the country in the interim, mind.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,220

    Looks like a possible car bomb in the Moscow financial district.

    https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1578086542395965456

    Please be Putin please be Putin please be Putin.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Yes I would.

    It happens too when there's no money left.

    Whatever is left in the pension pot should be used for the pension. No more, no less.
    Wrong, Bart. Your employer only gets not to pay you if there is no money *anywhere* not no money in the salary pot. Ditto with pensions. Pots simply don't come into it.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,696
    EPG said:

    Maybe banks should have been allowed to do the same with mortgages during the last 15 years of low rates. Sorry, we didn't expect this so we're taking more cash than we contractually agreed.
    Banks don't have the power of primary legislation and are able to go bankrupt should they not be able to cover their costs in which case those mortgage holders are fucked anyway.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,861
    edited October 2022

    Please be Putin please be Putin please be Putin.
    Looks like someone set fire to a couple of cars. Doubt anyone was in them.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    MaxPB said:

    Banks don't have the power of primary legislation and are able to go bankrupt should they not be able to cover their costs in which case those mortgage holders are fucked anyway.
    Did you earn more or less than £150,000 last year?
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited October 2022
    Great Bloomberg oddlots podcast on the chaos in the Gilts market;

    https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/odd-lots/id1056200096
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,732
    Truss out by xmas is out at 11 on BF.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,696
    IshmaelZ said:

    Did you earn more or less than £150,000 last year?
    Significantly more, what of it?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,870

    Please be Putin please be Putin please be Putin.
    I was assuming it was Ukrainian special forces again. As does now seem to have been the case with Dugina.

    But it may be Putin himself running another botched false flag.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    MaxPB said:

    Significantly more, what of it?
    Just I have never seen a less attractive combination of wealth and the politics of envy.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,870
    edited October 2022

    I have seen the idea floated of passing a law that a parliament automatically dissolves after a short period following a new PM taking office (mid-parliament).

    I don't really like the idea much, it has to be said. Strikes me (like the FTPA) as creating unintended consequences - cementing a bad leader in place because MPs are scared they will have to face a GE if they move to depose them.

    But I'm not sure what the solution is. I do think Truss' election has pushed the envelope compared to previous mid-parliament leadership takeovers because she has been so forceful about her view that the governments before her have been wrong on economic policy - and decided to steer the ship away from it. Perhaps she is feeling the consequences of this in the polls though. Doesn't help the country in the interim, mind.
    Give everyone a vote in the election process when the governing party changes leader?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,696
    IshmaelZ said:

    Just I have never seen a less attractive combination of wealth and the politics of envy.
    It's not envy, it's about attempting to ensure the country doesn't go bankrupt in 20 years and companies have money to invest in, you know, jobs for my kids.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,334
    ping said:

    Gilt yields continuing to creep back up after the BoE’s special monetary operation.

    Uk 10 year currently 4.2%

    Are we in the eye of the storm?

    To put that in to perspective the UK had borrowing costs for long term debt well above 12% in the 1970s. The country was often borrowing money at near 15% at a fixed rate. I think 14.5% was the highest coupon offered on very long dated government debt.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,861
    IshmaelZ said:

    Just I have never seen a less attractive combination of wealth and the politics of envy.
    I don't think it is envy to point out that pension arrangements are unaffordable.

    I blame Gordon Brown.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968

    Dissolving like an over-ripe corpse?
    Corbyned off then Starmered to death.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729
    MaxPB said:

    It's not envy, it's about attempting to ensure the country doesn't go bankrupt in 20 years and companies have money to invest in, you know, jobs for my kids.
    You are proposing that the country default so it doesn't go bankrupt?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited October 2022
    The calculations for the liabilities of a defined benefit scheme are simple (ok they aremt simple but in the context of the world of finance they are simple). Companies preffered doing stock buy backs, issuing dividends and massivley increasing executive pay over investing in their pension schemes to cover the entirely predictable future liabilities.

    That various companies took payment holidays in the 1990s and now whine about their liabilties is nauseatingly outrageous. The people who advised them it would be fine should be shot.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,696
    EPG said:

    You are proposing that the country default so it doesn't go bankrupt?
    A restatement of DB to DC isn't a default, it's a restatement.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    MaxPB said:

    It's not envy, it's about attempting to ensure the country doesn't go bankrupt in 20 years and companies have money to invest in, you know, jobs for my kids.
    No, it is resentment that some leaching bastard is on a pension of £23,000 of your hard-earned money when by abrogating the law of contract you could screw them down to 18.5k.

    Nothing personal btw, I have no pensionary expectations other than a SIPP.
  • TresTres Posts: 2,755
    MaxPB said:

    What does "Let's Go Brandon" relate to? It seems like a really odd phrase to have on a flag or placard.
    Fuck Joe Biden.
    Cos a NASCAR crowd was chanting it and the commentator pretended they were saying Let's Go Brandon.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    edited October 2022
    MaxPB said:

    A restatement of DB to DC isn't a default, it's a restatement.
    Genuine LOL.

    ETA remind me not to enter any bets with you. Because if you lost and said Instead of paying out at 10/1 I will just return your stake with interest, that would be a restatement, right?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729
    MaxPB said:

    A restatement of DB to DC isn't a default, it's a restatement.
    "We restated your sterling assets into Kwarteng bucks."
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,192

    Corbyned off then Starmered to death.
    I think you misunderstand how low this govt has sunk. Starmer has nothing to worry about and even Corbyn would have been less damaging than the current shower.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,262
    I'm reluctant to get into four Yorkshiremen territory, but I doubt if there was ever a golden age, where young people enjoyed full employment, high wages, low taxes, easy access to credit, rising house prices (but still keeping pace with wages, and a great free education.

    Well, there may have been a sweet spot, from about 1985 to 2008, but that was it.

    What a lot of this is about is comparing the prospects of young people from upper middle class backgrounds in the past, with the prospects of young people generally, today.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,870
    edited October 2022
    Alistair said:

    The calculations for the liabilities of a defined benefit scheme are simple (ok they aremt simple but in the context of the world of finance they are simple). Companies preffered doing stock buy backs, issuing dividends and massivley increasing executive pay over investing in their pension schemes to cover the entirely predictable future liabilities.

    That various companies took payment holidays in the 1990s and now whine about their liabilties is nauseatingly outrageous. The people who advised them it would be fine should be shot.

    Although that doesn't explain the most overexposed pension fund of the lot - the Universities' Superannuation Scheme. Whose owners do not have stock, or issue dividends.

    Overinflated executive pay I will give you!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,262
    kle4 said:

    Old ways were better on this. But its hard to go back, as members are super entitled- as we've seen with corbynite tendencies they think they are more important than the country.
    The MP's are worse than the members, being disproportionately mad, incompetent, rapists, or other kinds of criminal.
  • I really would urge you to reconsider. It is bloody irritating when you get done for doing 33 mph in a 30 mph limit on a fine day when others are doing 50 mph on a rainy day. But that does not mean that speed limits should be abolished. And Sue Ellen is an unfair person who should never be allowed near high office and makes me ashamed to be Conservative Party member.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Incidentally there is a Scottish Panelbase poll out in the field currently.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    For context

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/uksectoraccounts/articles/pensionsinthenationalaccountsafullerpictureoftheuksfundedandunfundedpensionobligations/2018

    In 2018, pension liabilities of central and local government comprised:

    £4.8 trillion of state pension entitlements (224% of 2018 gross domestic product (GDP))
    unfunded defined benefit workplace pension entitlements for public sector employees estimated at £1.2 trillion (55% of GDP)
    funded defined benefit workplace pension entitlements for public sector employees worth £413 billion (19% of GDP)

    cheer up lads, it's only 1/4 of the state pension
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    Rings of Power update ***Spoiler alert considering I am the only one on earth watching it.

    And I’m loving it. Storyboarding, dialogue, acting all very good.

    I wasn’t so keen with episode 5 as it got a bit melodramatic, though the idea of Ilúvatar creating Mithras from a silmaril I liked.
    Episode 6 I felt had too much action, too fast paced in moving Story on so much, though Galadriel interrogating Adar was a standout moment in the series, as was Adar killing Sauron because Sauron didn’t care for the Orcs enough a great idea. But the episode squeezed in the creation of Mount Doom as the BIG plot twist.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,221

    I really would urge you to reconsider. It is bloody irritating when you get done for doing 33 mph in a 30 mph limit on a fine day when others are doing 50 mph on a rainy day. But that does not mean that speed limits should be abolished. And Sue Ellen is an unfair person who should never be allowed near high office and makes me ashamed to be Conservative Party member.
    That would be a good example if the ECHR mandated a particular speed limit.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,732
    Sean_F said:

    I'm reluctant to get into four Yorkshiremen territory, but I doubt if there was ever a golden age, where young people enjoyed full employment, high wages, low taxes, easy access to credit, rising house prices (but still keeping pace with wages, and a great free education.

    Well, there may have been a sweet spot, from about 1985 to 2008, but that was it.

    What a lot of this is about is comparing the prospects of young people from upper middle class backgrounds in the past, with the prospects of young people generally, today.

    I bought my first house, a small place in a provincial city, at the grand old age of 23 back in 1987. I had saved the deposit of the 'massive' sum of £2500 because the IT company I worked for had a project in crisis and they paid overtime. I worked most Saturdays for a year or so.

    The house cost £27k.

    A lost world to today's up and coming generation.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,262

    I bought my first house, a small place in a provincial city, at the grand old age of 23 back in 1987. I had saved the deposit of the 'massive' sum of £2500 because the IT company I worked for had a project in crisis and they paid overtime. I worked most Saturdays for a year or so.

    The house cost £27k.

    A lost world to today's up and coming generation.

    I'd say you would have been most unusual, even in 1987.

    Plenty of your contemporaries would have been wrestling with finding a job.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,732

    Corbyned off then Starmered to death.
    Battered as a Friday night chip shop cod.

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,262
    Omnium said:

    To put that in to perspective the UK had borrowing costs for long term debt well above 12% in the 1970s. The country was often borrowing money at near 15% at a fixed rate. I think 14.5% was the highest coupon offered on very long dated government debt.
    4% interest would have been considered laughably low, for most of my lifetime.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,262

    Rings of Power update ***Spoiler alert considering I am the only one on earth watching it.

    And I’m loving it. Storyboarding, dialogue, acting all very good.

    I wasn’t so keen with episode 5 as it got a bit melodramatic, though the idea of Ilúvatar creating Mithras from a silmaril I liked.
    Episode 6 I felt had too much action, too fast paced in moving Story on so much, though Galadriel interrogating Adar was a standout moment in the series, as was Adar killing Sauron because Sauron didn’t care for the Orcs enough a great idea. But the episode squeezed in the creation of Mount Doom as the BIG plot twist.

    I'll watch it in due course. It's Tolkien fanfiction, but Tolkien gave nothing more than the barest outline of history for the Second Age, anyway.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,061
    pancakes said:

    Perhaps he considered Liz more beatable (I meant tactical voting to elevate the more beatable opponent - not "bearable") but it's more likely that he didn't have enough spare votes to lend them out or for his supporters to feel that they should.
    Lending votes to Mordaunt would have been something of a public service in the interest of the greater good! But perhaps it's easier to see that with the benefit of hindsight
    (Thank you to you and anothers for the replies and the welcome.)
    "Conservative MPs: the smartest electorate on the planet" my arse.....

    Thick as pig-shit for allowing Truss v Rishi. My MP doesn't seem to be talking to me after I pointed this out.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729
    Sean_F said:

    I'd say you would have been most unusual, even in 1987.

    Plenty of your contemporaries would have been wrestling with finding a job.
    I think now you are making the mistake you point out about comparing today's problems to those of unrepresentative groups in the past.

    There must be a like-for-like comparison of average housing costs out there.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,262

    This party is no more! It has ceased to be! It’s expired and gone to meet it’s Maker! This is a late party. It’s a stiff! Bereft of life, It rests in peace! If you the membership had not nailed it to the perch it would be pushing up the daisies! It’s run down the curtain and joined the choir invisible!! THIS IS AN EX-PARTY!!


    - Well, I'd better replace it, then.
    It doesn't matter if the Conservative Party vanishes down the plughole. Something else will replace it.
  • MaxPB said:

    A restatement of DB to DC isn't a default, it's a restatement.
    There are two separate issues, aren't there?
    One is the noise- who takes the benefit/loss of whatever the market is doing on retirement day? That's the difference between DB and DC. A government really ought to be able to smooth that out, and some of us are willing to have a smaller reliable pension over a bigger variable one.

    The other is the signal- how much is typically in the pot? Clearly the answer is "not enough". But that's something that doesn't have a satisfactory solution that doesn't involve a time machine. But taxpayers saying "we don't like the committments our forebears made. Soz." is the kind of thing that is rightly called out as tawdry when capitalists do it.

    No, I don't have a good easy answer.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729
    One big difference in housing today is the political demand and supply for restrictions on new housing. That doesn't seem to have been as popular or permissible a political position in the past.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,061
    Ukrainian hackers took down the Russian GONETS communication satellite system for a week. (The one that, inter alia, the FSB uses to keep in touch.) Corresponded with the big Ukrainian push in the SW and the latest push in the East.

    https://cybernews.com/cyber-war/we-breached-russian-satellite-network-say-pro-ukraine-partisans/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=cybernews&utm_content=tweet
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,262
    EPG said:

    I think now you are making the mistake you point out about comparing today's problems to those of unrepresentative groups in the past.

    There must be a like-for-like comparison of average housing costs out there.
    I got on the housing ladder at the wrong point, discovering in 1993 that my flat was worth about 40% of what I had paid for it, two and a half years previously, with a mortgage that was about twice its value. I don't think that wsa an unusual experience among young people at that time.
  • I bought my first house, a small place in a provincial city, at the grand old age of 23 back in 1987. I had saved the deposit of the 'massive' sum of £2500 because the IT company I worked for had a project in crisis and they paid overtime. I worked most Saturdays for a year or so.

    The house cost £27k.

    A lost world to today's up and coming generation.

    I was lucky enough that my fantastic grandfather left me £5000 when he died in 1982 which paid for the deposit on a house. It is now "worth" over a million.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729
    Sean_F said:

    I got on the housing ladder at the wrong point, discovering in 1993 that my flat was worth about 40% of what I had paid for it, two and a half years previously, with a mortgage that was about twice its value. I don't think that wsa an unusual experience among young people at that time.
    Maybe not in the next 12 months either.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,782
    MaxPB said:

    A restatement of DB to DC isn't a default, it's a restatement.
    Its a material breach of contract unless it is done by agreement. A generation of employees in the private sector will have relatively impoverished retirements because they did agree with very little idea of what they were giving up. Although, in some cases, had they not agreed their company/employer would have been strangled in the same way as BA have been,
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited October 2022
    Sean_F said:

    4% interest would have been considered laughably low, for most of my lifetime.
    There’s a great quote from Walter Bagehot, an editor of the economist in the 19th century;

    ‘John Bull can stand many things, but he cannot stand two percent.’

    https://www.advisorperspectives.com/commentaries/2022/07/08/john-bull-and-two-percent

    It’s a fairly simple explanation of asset bubbles and investment manias, as investors react to low interest rates by reaching for impossible yield.

    Very low interest rates turn sane men mad.

    I’m reading Edward Chancellors book, right now.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,262
    EPG said:

    One big difference in housing today is the political demand and supply for restrictions on new housing. That doesn't seem to have been as popular or permissible a political position in the past.

    A big difference, I think, is that housing was a massively important issue to both Conservative and Labour parties, from the 1920's to the 1980's, which exercised a lot of the best minds in those parties, and then somehow, it fell off the radar.

    One really interesting (and very obscure) book I've read, Piers Wauchope's history of Camden Council, illustrates this. When it was formed, in 1964, Camden was dominated by St. Pancras councillors, who were old left, and obsessed with housing. By the 1980's it was dominated by the new left, based in Hampstead, whose principal concerns were nuclear disarmament, anti-apartheid, and overseas aid.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,262
    EPG said:

    Maybe not in the next 12 months either.
    It might get bad, but it won't get *that* bad. This was when mortgage rates hit 16%.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    The preventable death of the Scottish Tories
    - Ruth Davidson gave them a chance. Her successors blew it

    What she failed to do was make the Scottish Tories a viable party of government (a tall order at the best of times) and now the gains she made look set to be reversed.

    On these numbers, the Tories would face another 1997-style Scottish wipeout. Indeed, as far as I can tell, YouGov’s 12 per cent would represent the worst ever result for the party or any of its predecessors.

    Showing the part-time referee a red card would salve the frustrations of many a rank-and-file Scottish Tory but the uncomfortable truth is that the talent pool for replacing him is shallow.

    Six years as the principal opposition party and they have almost nothing to show for it.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-preventable-death-of-the-scottish-tories
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 44,902

    Rings of Power update ***Spoiler alert considering I am the only one on earth watching it.

    And I’m loving it. Storyboarding, dialogue, acting all very good.

    I wasn’t so keen with episode 5 as it got a bit melodramatic, though the idea of Ilúvatar creating Mithras from a silmaril I liked.
    Episode 6 I felt had too much action, too fast paced in moving Story on so much, though Galadriel interrogating Adar was a standout moment in the series, as was Adar killing Sauron because Sauron didn’t care for the Orcs enough a great idea. But the episode squeezed in the creation of Mount Doom as the BIG plot twist.

    We're quite enjoying it as well.

    Whilst we're on about media, I watched "Bill and Ted face the music" and absolutely loved it. It will never be a classic, but it's one of the better threequals.
This discussion has been closed.