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A Tribute Act – politicalbetting.com

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  • sbjme19sbjme19 Posts: 25
    What an almighty cheek to say it's a distraction when they've been saying for over a week it was the best thing they could possibly do.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631
    Scott_xP said:

    The lady’s not for not turning. #Trussterfuck

    https://twitter.com/CountBinface/status/1576830566204604417

    Like I say, sounds like a diary entry...
  • RattersRatters Posts: 464
    Scott_xP said:

    The Rishi Sunak Party has used its veto in a hung parliament
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1576828722690203648

    The symbolism of this defeat extends far beyond the narrow 45p issue.

    Truss/Kwarteng can no longer propose radical libertarian reform and assume they a majority for it.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,538
    So will KK go sooner or later? It would be unprecedented for a chancellor to survive this.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,003
    Nigelb said:

    How aware are most Russians of the scale if their military reverses ?

    https://mobile.twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1576802301075156992
    By now we've all seen the hunt for scapegoats by Russian military bloggers playing out following the defeat to Ukraine in Lyman

    But what did state TV's mammoth Sunday night news shows have to say about it?..

    The press seem to be a little less evasive.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/BBCSteveR/status/1576823713252757505
    In today’s Russian papers:
    * “The surrender of Lyman becomes a political problem.”
    * Mobilisation “has rocked the boat of political stability.”
    * The world “on the edge of a [nuclear] catastrophe.”


  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,113
    Philp disowning it, to @KayBurley.

    He says: “I wouldn’t describe it as my idea, no. I did not produce a paper specifically on this measure. We discuss lots of ideas” 👀

    https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1576831813284417536
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,347
    Nigelb said:

    ClippP said:

    WillG said:

    I see from tonight's thread that you scratch the surface of the appeaser types, and it turns out to be deep seated anti-Americanism behind it. Still smarting from the loss of global superpower status by the British Empire a century ago. All the blame can go to British politicians standing up for the freedom of Europe. Not, say, the fact that millions of Africans and Indians resented living under authoritarian government where they didn't get to choose who runs them.

    And of course, just like United Russia scum, the only way they can justify this immoral empire is by pretending democracy is no better. Poles, Lithuanians, Ukrainians aren't able to be free democracies like the Brits. We are either Russian puppets or American puppets.

    "Free democracy like the Brits", Mr WillG??? Nothing of the kind..... Starting with our broken voting system...
    Why is it 'broken' ? What guiding principles would you start with to choose a 'better' system?
    He equates the principle of “democracy” with the voting mechanism that gives his favoured party the best shot at power.

    Not a thoughtful person
    You haven't addressed any of the thoughtful arguments he just made.
    The same critique is more fairly applied to you.

    Because it was written before I saw his more detailed post… I have many talents but the ability to answer a post before reading it is not one of them
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,113
    Daily Mail changed its front-page around midnight to reflect the potential u-turn
    https://twitter.com/davidyelland/status/1576710728433602560
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,347
    ydoethur said:

    Ratters said:

    One trouble the government has is that backbench Tories (Gove, Sunak, Patel, May, even Shapps) carry more weight than pretty much the entire Cabinet.


    They are about to learn the downside of
    forgoing an inclusive frontbench after Truss's win.

    Raab, Zahawi, Javid…
    Hunt!
    Fox :lol:
    Chute!

    😜
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,032
    edited October 3
    HYUFD said:

    So Truss and Kwarteng have made the necessary u turn and dumped the cut in the 45p top rate which was polititically toxic at the
    moment. Also calms the markets and sterling has risen

    As Ian King on Sky business has just said this measures has not had an effect on the market or the pound which remains at 1.1186 and Bloomberg has just said their credit has not been restored in the market
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,538
    Excruciating interview with KK on R4.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631
    Jonathan said:

    Excruciating interview with KK on R4.

    If you want to be first with the news, tell us when he's doing one that isn't!
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,035
    Well quite, it turns out that the markets hate the energy and NI policies that both parties agree on.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,113
    They have successfully moved the debate on from giving tax cuts to rich people.

    The debate is now who thought of it, who approved it, who reversed it, who gets the blame for it, and how many more times will it still bite them in the ass
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,177

    HYUFD said:

    So Truss and Kwarteng have made the necessary u turn and dumped the cut in the 45p top rate which was polititically toxic at the
    moment. Also calms the markets and sterling has risen

    As Ian King on Sky business has just said this measures has not had an effect on the market or the pound which remains at 1.1186 and Bloomberg has just said their credit has not been restored in the market
    The app on my phone gives much the same information. The only significant strengthening is against the Thai Baht!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,032
    Scott_xP said:

    "This has become a distraction and I would like to move on and talk about growth." https://twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/1576832429352169472/photo/1


    Is that no 10 flat ?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,347
    Nigelb said:

    ClippP said:

    ClippP said:

    WillG said:

    I see from tonight's thread that you scratch the surface of the appeaser types, and it turns out to be deep seated anti-Americanism behind it. Still smarting from the loss of global superpower status by the British Empire a century ago. All the blame can go to British politicians standing up for the freedom of Europe. Not, say, the fact that millions of Africans and Indians resented living under authoritarian government where they didn't get to choose who runs them.

    And of course, just like United Russia scum, the only way they can justify this immoral empire is by pretending democracy is no better. Poles, Lithuanians, Ukrainians aren't able to be free democracies like the Brits. We are either Russian puppets or American puppets.

    "Free democracy like the Brits", Mr WillG??? Nothing of the kind..... Starting with our broken voting system...
    Why is it 'broken' ? What guiding principles would you start with to choose a 'better' system?
    One where every vote counts. And where we end up with a government - not necessarily of just one party - which reflects the wishes of the people.

    So no minority governments, and no safe seats.
    You are making the mistake of viewing the UK as one demos whereas it is many.

    London has different priorities to Cornwall or Yorkshire, for example.

    With our current system each local community gets to vote for their representative who then has an equal say alongside the other communities.
    Which would still happen in larger multi member constituencies with STV - except that the voice of those outside the winning national plurality (likely to be only 40% of those voting under FPTP) would be far better represented.

    That’s the system I first proposed in the 90s…



  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,003

    Nigelb said:

    ClippP said:

    WillG said:

    I see from tonight's thread that you scratch the surface of the appeaser types, and it turns out to be deep seated anti-Americanism behind it. Still smarting from the loss of global superpower status by the British Empire a century ago. All the blame can go to British politicians standing up for the freedom of Europe. Not, say, the fact that millions of Africans and Indians resented living under authoritarian government where they didn't get to choose who runs them.

    And of course, just like United Russia scum, the only way they can justify this immoral empire is by pretending democracy is no better. Poles, Lithuanians, Ukrainians aren't able to be free democracies like the Brits. We are either Russian puppets or American puppets.

    "Free democracy like the Brits", Mr WillG??? Nothing of the kind..... Starting with our broken voting system...
    Why is it 'broken' ? What guiding principles would you start with to choose a 'better' system?
    He equates the principle of “democracy” with the voting mechanism that gives his favoured party the best shot at power.

    Not a thoughtful person
    You haven't addressed any of the thoughtful arguments he just made.
    The same critique is more fairly applied to you.

    Because it was written before I saw his more detailed post… I have many talents but the ability to answer a post before reading it is not one of them
    Then perhaps hold back on the ad hominems until you're sure they're deserved ?

    I'll admit to having been made to look silly in just the same way myself.

  • Scott_xP said:

    He's the numbers guy...

    The Chancellor tells @bbcbreakfast "95% of the package is what we are 100% focused on."
    https://twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/1576823197789405184

    What's your issue with that statement?

    The 45p tax change was just £2bn of the £45bn package. If £43bn of tax cuts go through having reversed on the £2bn then that is 95% of the package. And since they're not focused on the £2bn anymore, since its been reversed, it makes sense to be focused on the remaining £43bn.

    The numbers make sense there.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,538
    KK cannot admit a mistake. Is there something wrong with him?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 27,575

    ClippP said:

    ClippP said:

    WillG said:

    I see from tonight's thread that you scratch the surface of the appeaser types, and it turns out to be deep seated anti-Americanism behind it. Still smarting from the loss of global superpower status by the British Empire a century ago. All the blame can go to British politicians standing up for the freedom of Europe. Not, say, the fact that millions of Africans and Indians resented living under authoritarian government where they didn't get to choose who runs them.

    And of course, just like United Russia scum, the only way they can justify this immoral empire is by pretending democracy is no better. Poles, Lithuanians, Ukrainians aren't able to be free democracies like the Brits. We are either Russian puppets or American puppets.

    "Free democracy like the Brits", Mr WillG??? Nothing of the kind..... Starting with our broken voting system...
    Why is it 'broken' ? What guiding principles would you start with to choose a 'better' system?
    One where every vote counts. And where we end up with a government - not necessarily of just one party - which reflects the wishes of the people.

    So no minority governments, and no safe seats.
    Why 'no safe seats' ? How do you achieve that whilst still reflecting the wishes of the (local) people?

    Here are some of my thoughts on this:
    *) I want a system where we vote for individuals, not parties.
    *) I want to vote on manifestos, not post-election backroom deals.
    *) I want to reduce, not increase, the power of parties. (*)
    *) I want a voting system where votes are accountable and transparent, yet also protects the individual's vote.
    *) I would like (but won't get) a system that allows governments to look more than one electoral cycle ahead.

    (*) IMO this is *really* important in a democracy. Powerful parties are one of the steps on the road towards bad government, or even non-democracy.
    Snap. This is my position entirely.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,347
    ClippP said:

    ClippP said:

    ClippP said:

    WillG said:

    I see from tonight's thread that you scratch the surface of the appeaser types, and it turns out to be deep seated anti-Americanism behind it. Still smarting from the loss of global superpower status by the British Empire a century ago. All the blame can go to British politicians standing up for the freedom of Europe. Not, say, the fact that millions of Africans and Indians resented living under authoritarian government where they didn't get to choose who runs them.

    And of course, just like United Russia scum, the only way they can justify this immoral empire is by pretending democracy is no better. Poles, Lithuanians, Ukrainians aren't able to be free democracies like the Brits. We are either Russian puppets or American puppets.

    "Free democracy like the Brits", Mr WillG??? Nothing of the kind..... Starting with our broken voting system...
    Why is it 'broken' ? What guiding principles would you start with to choose a 'better' system?
    One where every vote counts. And where we end up with a government - not necessarily of just one party - which reflects the wishes of the people.

    So no minority governments, and no safe seats.
    You are making the mistake of viewing the UK as one demos whereas it is many.

    London has different priorities to Cornwall or Yorkshire, for example.

    With our current system each local community gets to vote for their representative who then has an equal say alongside the other communities.
    Currently, Cornwall has six MPs all of them from the ruling Conservative Party. Does this state of things represent the views of Cornwall as a whole?
    I wouldn’t have the votes at county level but at community level. I used counties as an example of different interests
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 8,323

    Chaos at the English-Scottish border this morning as those convoys of millionaire Jocks moving to England for the benign tax regime u-turn when they realise it’s a complete waste of time.

    You keep using this word “jock”. WTF does it mean?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,538
    edited October 3
    “What I’m telling you, and I don’t think your listening”.

    Too tip Tories, you need to get rid of this guy. He’s politically deaf.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,113
    Kwarteng loses his rag with Nick Robinson after being told there is now a "Kwarteng premium" on people's mortgage rates: "What you are presenting is a complete distortion of reality."
    https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1576834828984385541
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,113
    Kwarteng says it is not “parliamentary games” that led to the u-turn but it is quite clear MPs were saying to No10&11 that they would not vote for it and telling them to change course
    https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1576834794645692416
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 7,790

    Scott_xP said:

    "This has become a distraction and I would like to move on and talk about growth." https://twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/1576832429352169472/photo/1


    Is that no 10 flat ?
    No, the wallpaper isn't hideous enough.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,113
    Jonathan said:

    “What I’m telling you, and I don’t think your listening”.

    Too tip Tories, you need to get rid of this guy.

    I thought the U-turn would be enough to save his job, but after the media round I think Truss still needs to sack him to save hers
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,032
    edited October 3
    EPG said:

    Well quite, it turns out that the markets hate the energy and NI policies that both parties agree on.

    Today's u turn means that on the 19% rate, the NI change, and the 2 year cap both conservative and labour are in the same place, following Reeves confirmation yesterday they support the 2 year cap
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,448
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Tory insiders claim that it was, in fact, Treasury chief sec Chris Philp who had the idea to cut the 45p tax rate, presenting Truss and Kwarteng with a paper on it during leadership campaign.
    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1576819652902400000

    They're going to throw him under the bus, aren't they, in an unedifying attempt to save their worthless selves.

    But that doesn't work. If they had any sense they would have told him it was politically tin-eared, economically suicidal and therefore a total non-starter.
    Yes. I wouldn't criticize someone for having ideas. We need those. But a grown up politician shouldn't have had to think about this one too long. Nobody forced them to run with it.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,113
    Kwarteng tells BBC "it is a complete distortion" to characterise budget as something that caused mortgages to go up over 900 pounds A YEAR.
    On this he maybe probably correct, as many I spoke to last week said their mortgages were up hundreds of pounds A MONTH after his budget

    https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1576835087756193792
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 45,003
    .

    Scott_xP said:

    "This has become a distraction and I would like to move on and talk about growth." https://twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/1576832429352169472/photo/1


    Is that no 10 flat ?
    No, but the dog is called Lulu.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,347
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    ClippP said:

    WillG said:

    I see from tonight's thread that you scratch the surface of the appeaser types, and it turns out to be deep seated anti-Americanism behind it. Still smarting from the loss of global superpower status by the British Empire a century ago. All the blame can go to British politicians standing up for the freedom of Europe. Not, say, the fact that millions of Africans and Indians resented living under authoritarian government where they didn't get to choose who runs them.

    And of course, just like United Russia scum, the only way they can justify this immoral empire is by pretending democracy is no better. Poles, Lithuanians, Ukrainians aren't able to be free democracies like the Brits. We are either Russian puppets or American puppets.

    "Free democracy like the Brits", Mr WillG??? Nothing of the kind..... Starting with our broken voting system...
    Why is it 'broken' ? What guiding principles would you start with to choose a 'better' system?
    He equates the principle of “democracy” with the voting mechanism that gives his favoured party the best shot at power.

    Not a thoughtful person
    You haven't addressed any of the thoughtful arguments he just made.
    The same critique is more fairly applied to you.

    Because it was written before I saw his more detailed post… I have many talents but the ability to answer a post before reading it is not one of them
    Then perhaps hold back on the ad hominems until you're sure they're deserved ?

    I'll admit to having been made to look silly in just the same way myself.

    It’s just about the only thing that @ClippP posts on. Also it was a disagreement not an ad hominem. He was making a fundamental error by equating two separate things

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,286

    Scott_xP said:

    He's the numbers guy...

    The Chancellor tells @bbcbreakfast "95% of the package is what we are 100% focused on."
    https://twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/1576823197789405184

    What's your issue with that statement?

    The 45p tax change was just £2bn of the £45bn package. If £43bn of tax cuts go through having reversed on the £2bn then that is 95% of the package. And since they're not focused on the £2bn anymore, since its been reversed, it makes sense to be focused on the remaining £43bn.

    The numbers make sense there.
    What LizT and Kwasi need to focus on is not the remaining tax cuts but by precisely what mechanism they lead to growth. That's what the markets (and the people) need to see.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,113
    My radio just turned itself off mid Kwarteng interview. I feel its pain.
    https://twitter.com/jessphillips/status/1576835395589136384

    This interview is brutal. It's the sound of fucked, with crystal clarity in full HD.
    https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1576835720358264833
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,032

    Scott_xP said:

    "This has become a distraction and I would like to move on and talk about growth." https://twitter.com/hugorifkind/status/1576832429352169472/photo/1


    Is that no 10 flat ?
    No, the wallpaper isn't hideous enough.
    Fair comment, and I did not mark it off topic
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,113
    Was the 45p tax cut your idea?

    Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Chris Philp refuses to provide details on who suggested the tax cut, stating that he wouldn't share "private conversations" but says he "would not describe it as his idea".

    #KayBurley: https://trib.al/ecixuwi https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1576834685270999041/video/1
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,122
    Ratters said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The Rishi Sunak Party has used its veto in a hung parliament
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1576828722690203648

    The symbolism of this defeat extends far beyond the narrow 45p issue.

    Truss/Kwarteng can no longer propose radical libertarian reform and assume they a majority for it.
    In office but not in power.

  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,334

    ClippP said:

    WillG said:

    I see from tonight's thread that you scratch the surface of the appeaser types, and it turns out to be deep seated anti-Americanism behind it. Still smarting from the loss of global superpower status by the British Empire a century ago. All the blame can go to British politicians standing up for the freedom of Europe. Not, say, the fact that millions of Africans and Indians resented living under authoritarian government where they didn't get to choose who runs them.

    And of course, just like United Russia scum, the only way they can justify this immoral empire is by pretending democracy is no better. Poles, Lithuanians, Ukrainians aren't able to be free democracies like the Brits. We are either Russian puppets or American puppets.

    "Free democracy like the Brits", Mr WillG??? Nothing of the kind..... Starting with our broken voting system...
    Why is it 'broken' ? What guiding principles would you start with to choose a 'better' system?
    He equates the principle of “democracy” with the voting mechanism that gives his favoured party the best shot at power.
    Not a thoughtful person
    But if I, as an elector, have a wide choice of electable candidates with a variety of different values and proposals, I no longer need a party, do I, Mr Waters? At best, a party is an approximation to what I want to see. I am not necessarily equally in favour of all the parts of the party package.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,538
    Not heard an interview like that in ages. KK is a one man Labour vote factory.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,122
    Scott_xP said:

    Was the 45p tax cut your idea?

    Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Chris Philp refuses to provide details on who suggested the tax cut, stating that he wouldn't share "private conversations" but says he "would not describe it as his idea".

    #KayBurley: https://trib.al/ecixuwi https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1576834685270999041/video/1

    I'll bet he wouldn't. Look to the Taxpayers Alliance or one of those other think tanks advising this government or, possibly, one of those hedge fund friends of Kwasi.

    It really doesn't matter who proposed it - other than give us the endlessly amusing spectacle of watching them all turn on each other. They were all too stupid to realise what a bad idea it was at this time.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,448
    Scott_xP said:

    Tory MP tells me: "She is now more Tinfoil Woman than Iron Lady. The rust has set in very early.”
    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1576826752902758400

    Point of order. Tinfoil doesn't rust. Iron does.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,032
    Cyclefree said:

    Ratters said:

    Scott_xP said:

    The Rishi Sunak Party has used its veto in a hung parliament
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1576828722690203648

    The symbolism of this defeat extends far beyond the narrow 45p issue.

    Truss/Kwarteng can no longer propose radical libertarian reform and assume they a majority for it.
    In office but not in power.

    It seems conservative mps have demonstrated that they are able to exercise the power to remove Kwarteng/ Truss, and Truss will be removed in 2023 unless she can turn things round
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,284
    DougSeal said:

    Chaos at the English-Scottish border this morning as those convoys of millionaire Jocks moving to England for the benign tax regime u-turn when they realise it’s a complete waste of time.

    You keep using this word “jock”. WTF does it mean?
    Uh oh, the language police have been triggered again.



  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,113
    Kwarteng like Truss: incapable of anything but the most banal copy-and-paste political sloganeering: 'What I'm focusing on' etc etc. No intellectual presence in the conversation at all.
    https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1576836990242549761

    What is jarring (to use the Schapps word) is that this such a humbling moment for the government and the chancellor, and yet the tone of @KwasiKwarteng is pure arrogance
    https://twitter.com/jonsopel/status/1576837342077194240
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,113
    ‘She’s going to have real trouble now because those who’ve supported her with this will be as pissed off as those who can’t stand her!' - one pro-Truss MP https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-would-tory-mps-trust-truss-now-
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,147
    Still not voting for this bunch of c-words. Zero humility.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,113
    EXCL: Tory donor defects to Labour and hits out at the “GCSE economics” of “zealots” Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/04e69744-4285-11ed-abc9-d0d53e948d21?shareToken=3896eafba0c847a9f627463883488943
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,113
    Cabinet ministers blindsided by the 45p move. Spoke to one this morning who found out first via the media then a call around 7am confirming.

    Full cabinet wasn’t consulted when the original policy was adopted; wasn’t consulted when it was scrapped.

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1576837571723685888
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 2,002
    LOL U turn!

    Has this Government's credibility reached an all time low?

    How low can you go?!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,113
    Government U-turns would be less humiliating if the comms line the day before wasn't always some variation of, "our policy is obviously correct and anyone who doesn't see that is a remoaner cuck declinist probably working for Putin, or worse, Macron."
    https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status/1576837178369658882
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 11,238
    Kwasi Kwarteng has just become my favourite politician. This man is pure gold.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 7,222
    edited October 3
    This hasn't shifted the UK corporate bond and gilt markets, as I understand it. This is only 2 billion out of a 45 billion package, as Bartholomew says.

    Now there'll have to be more changes of policy on the back of this one..
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,538
    MaxPB said:

    Still not voting for this bunch of c-words. Zero humility.

    KK used the word ‘proud’ this morning. He is remarkably arrogant.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,113
    Yesterdays trail for todays papers for this afternoons speech from Chancellor: “We must stay the course. I am confident our plan is the right one.” https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1576838459838566401/photo/1
  • eekeek Posts: 21,770

    Scott_xP said:

    He's the numbers guy...

    The Chancellor tells @bbcbreakfast "95% of the package is what we are 100% focused on."
    https://twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/1576823197789405184

    What's your issue with that statement?

    The 45p tax change was just £2bn of the £45bn package. If £43bn of tax cuts go through having reversed on the £2bn then that is 95% of the package. And since they're not focused on the £2bn anymore, since its been reversed, it makes sense to be focused on the remaining £43bn.

    The numbers make sense there.
    What LizT and Kwasi need to focus on is not the remaining tax cuts but by precisely what mechanism they lead to growth. That's what the markets (and the people) need to see.
    They best junk the Corporation Tax cuts then - because we have 12 years of recent history that demonstrates it doesn't generate investment - it encourages short term profiteering at the cost of medium term let alone long term viability.

    I'm sorry but I see nothing in the mini budget or subsequent gossip (because things like cutting HS2 hasn't been announced yet) that says they understand how to grow the economy.

    And if they are going to bin HS2 they may as well write off the Home County seats it runs through. If they aren't even going to complete it the pain really isn't worth it..
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,547
    DougSeal said:

    Chaos at the English-Scottish border this morning as those convoys of millionaire Jocks moving to England for the benign tax regime u-turn when they realise it’s a complete waste of time.

    You keep using this word “jock”. WTF does it mean?
    A search indicates that it is many things, but apparently in British English is sometimes refers to a Scotsman, and that sometimes this is offensive.

    I wonder if any PBers can give empirical evidence of this strange use and/or its power to offend?

    "Jock
    in British English
    (dʒɒk IPA Pronunciation Guide)
    NOUN sometimes offensive
    a slang word or term of address for a Scot"


  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,032

    This hasn't shifted the UK corporate bond and gilt markets, as I understand it. This is only 2 billion out of 45 million package, as Bartholomew says.

    Now there'll have to be more changes of policy, on the back of this one..

    The extraordinary fact is that labour is now aligned with the conservatives on all the main measures including the 2 year cap
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 3,200
    MaxPB said:

    Still not voting for this bunch of c-words. Zero humility.

    It could be a good time to consider joining the conservative party though. The likes of Gove and Sunak aren't going to be back in high office until the membership want it. Who actually gains by the Conservative party going in to a death spiral? FPTP ensures that a new party will get nowhere. Starmer is a great leader but any faith in the labour party is deeply misguided. Look at the 'Corbyn' generation of MP's that mostly fill out its backbenches.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,916

    HYUFD said:

    So Truss and Kwarteng have made the necessary u turn and dumped the cut in the 45p top rate which was polititically toxic at the
    moment. Also calms the markets and sterling has risen

    As Ian King on Sky business has just said this measures has not had an effect on the market or the pound which remains at 1.1186 and Bloomberg has just said their credit has not been restored in the market
    The £ is now up .64% against the dollar

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market-data
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,147
    darkage said:

    MaxPB said:

    Still not voting for this bunch of c-words. Zero humility.

    It could be a good time to consider joining the conservative party though. The likes of Gove and Sunak aren't going to be back in high office until the membership want it. Who actually gains by the Conservative party going in to a death spiral? FPTP ensures that a new party will get nowhere. Starmer is a great leader but any faith in the labour party is deeply misguided. Look at the 'Corbyn' generation of MP's that mostly fill out its backbenches.
    Yes, I rejoined late last week.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,538
    Is it just me, or was the policy originally conceived as a political move to signal distance from previous administrations and has now been ditched today to avoid further bad headlines at conference.

    They talk long term strategy, but this is all short term politics.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 11,225
    Jonathan said:

    MaxPB said:

    Still not voting for this bunch of c-words. Zero humility.

    KK used the word ‘proud’ this morning. He is remarkably arrogant.
    He got a bit cross, didn't he.

    Anyway it doesn't matter. He's a dead man walking. Truss's departure will be slower and more carefully timed, but there is no way the Tories can go into the next election with these two up front and centre stage.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,113
    Jonathan said:

    They talk long term strategy, but this is all short term politics.

    Both of which they are REALLY bad at
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 7,222
    edited October 3

    This hasn't shifted the UK corporate bond and gilt markets, as I understand it. This is only 2 billion out of 45 million package, as Bartholomew says.

    Now there'll have to be more changes of policy, on the back of this one..

    The extraordinary fact is that labour is now aligned with the conservatives on all the main measures including the 2 year cap

    This hasn't shifted the UK corporate bond and gilt markets, as I understand it. This is only 2 billion out of 45 million package, as Bartholomew says.

    Now there'll have to be more changes of policy, on the back of this one..

    The extraordinary fact is that labour is now aligned with the conservatives on all the main measures including the 2 year cap
    Labour isn't supporting a number of the others. We need a full breakdown on this, from one of our stats-expert posters.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,538

    This hasn't shifted the UK corporate bond and gilt markets, as I understand it. This is only 2 billion out of 45 million package, as Bartholomew says.

    Now there'll have to be more changes of policy, on the back of this one..

    The extraordinary fact is that labour is now aligned with the conservatives on all the main measures including the 2 year cap
    Labour are currently very good at picking dividing lines. They are more in control of this than the government.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,113

    Jonathan said:

    MaxPB said:

    Still not voting for this bunch of c-words. Zero humility.

    KK used the word ‘proud’ this morning. He is remarkably arrogant.
    He got a bit cross, didn't he.

    Anyway it doesn't matter. He's a dead man walking. Truss's departure will be slower and more carefully timed, but there is no way the Tories can go into the next election with these two up front and centre stage.
    100mph climb down on 45p - rebels may wonder what to pick off next? https://twitter.com/bbcpolitics/status/1576812109073113088

    I wonder if the next thing they pick off is the chancellor...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,032
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So Truss and Kwarteng have made the necessary u turn and dumped the cut in the 45p top rate which was polititically toxic at the
    moment. Also calms the markets and sterling has risen

    As Ian King on Sky business has just said this measures has not had an effect on the market or the pound which remains at 1.1186 and Bloomberg has just said their credit has not been restored in the market
    The £ is now up .64% against the dollar

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market-data
    None of the business commentators either on Sky, BBC or Bloomberg agree with you

    This has hardly registered in the markets
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,916

    EPG said:

    Well quite, it turns out that the markets hate the energy and NI policies that both parties agree on.

    Today's u turn means that on the 19% rate, the NI change, and the 2 year cap both conservative and labour are in the same place, following Reeves confirmation yesterday they support the 2 year cap
    Not on ending the bankers' bonus cap however nor on the corporation tax cut
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,286
    Scott_xP said:

    EXCL: Tory donor defects to Labour and hits out at the “GCSE economics” of “zealots” Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/04e69744-4285-11ed-abc9-d0d53e948d21?shareToken=3896eafba0c847a9f627463883488943

    On the other hand, underneath is a link to:-
    Tory donors return to the fold after Kwasi Kwarteng’s mini-budget
    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/tory-donors-return-to-the-fold-after-kwasi-kwartengs-mini-budget-9mn6tz5zr (£££)
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,334

    Nigelb said:

    ClippP said:

    ClippP said:

    WillG said:

    I see from tonight's thread that you scratch the surface of the appeaser types, and it turns out to be deep seated anti-Americanism behind it. Still smarting from the loss of global superpower status by the British Empire a century ago. All the blame can go to British politicians standing up for the freedom of Europe. Not, say, the fact that millions of Africans and Indians resented living under authoritarian government where they didn't get to choose who runs them.

    And of course, just like United Russia scum, the only way they can justify this immoral empire is by pretending democracy is no better. Poles, Lithuanians, Ukrainians aren't able to be free democracies like the Brits. We are either Russian puppets or American puppets.

    "Free democracy like the Brits", Mr WillG??? Nothing of the kind..... Starting with our broken voting system...
    Why is it 'broken' ? What guiding principles would you start with to choose a 'better' system?
    One where every vote counts. And where we end up with a government - not necessarily of just one party - which reflects the wishes of the people.

    So no minority governments, and no safe seats.
    You are making the mistake of viewing the UK as one demos whereas it is many.

    London has different priorities to Cornwall or Yorkshire, for example.

    With our current system each local community gets to vote for their representative who then has an equal say alongside the other communities.
    Which would still happen in larger multi member constituencies with STV - except that the voice of those outside the winning national plurality (likely to be only 40% of those voting under FPTP) would be far better represented.
    That’s the system I first proposed in the 90s…
    And the Liberal Government was pushing through Parliament over a hundred years ago, when everything was interrupted by the Great War.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,147

    Jonathan said:

    MaxPB said:

    Still not voting for this bunch of c-words. Zero humility.

    KK used the word ‘proud’ this morning. He is remarkably arrogant.
    He got a bit cross, didn't he.

    Anyway it doesn't matter. He's a dead man walking. Truss's departure will be slower and more carefully timed, but there is no way the Tories can go into the next election with these two up front and centre stage.
    Hence rejoining the party, the current Tory party membership is completely out of touch with reality. Hopefully I can go to some events and tell them they're all grasping, selfish and out of touch.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,347
    ClippP said:

    ClippP said:

    WillG said:

    I see from tonight's thread that you scratch the surface of the appeaser types, and it turns out to be deep seated anti-Americanism behind it. Still smarting from the loss of global superpower status by the British Empire a century ago. All the blame can go to British politicians standing up for the freedom of Europe. Not, say, the fact that millions of Africans and Indians resented living under authoritarian government where they didn't get to choose who runs them.

    And of course, just like United Russia scum, the only way they can justify this immoral empire is by pretending democracy is no better. Poles, Lithuanians, Ukrainians aren't able to be free democracies like the Brits. We are either Russian puppets or American puppets.

    "Free democracy like the Brits", Mr WillG??? Nothing of the kind..... Starting with our broken voting system...
    Why is it 'broken' ? What guiding principles would you start with to choose a 'better' system?
    He equates the principle of “democracy” with the voting mechanism that gives his favoured party the best shot at power.
    Not a thoughtful person
    But if I, as an elector, have a wide choice of electable candidates with a variety of different values and proposals, I no longer need a party, do I, Mr Waters? At best, a party is an approximation to what I want to see. I am not necessarily equally in favour of all the parts of the party package.
    Which is why you elect a representative not a delegate. But parties are too powerful, I agree.

    However PR pushes the decisions further away from the people and into the coalition building process

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631
    Jonathan said:

    MaxPB said:

    Still not voting for this bunch of c-words. Zero humility.

    KK used the word ‘proud’ this morning. He is remarkably arrogant.
    A Cambridge educated economist, arrogant?

    You'll be telling me next that a civil servant at the DfE is useless.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,032

    This hasn't shifted the UK corporate bond and gilt markets, as I understand it. This is only 2 billion out of 45 million package, as Bartholomew says.

    Now there'll have to be more changes of policy, on the back of this one..

    The extraordinary fact is that labour is now aligned with the conservatives on all the main measures including the 2 year cap

    This hasn't shifted the UK corporate bond and gilt markets, as I understand it. This is only 2 billion out of 45 million package, as Bartholomew says.

    Now there'll have to be more changes of policy, on the back of this one..

    The extraordinary fact is that labour is now aligned with the conservatives on all the main measures including the 2 year cap
    Labour isn't supporting a number of the others. We need a full breakdown on this, from one of our stats-expert posters.
    Corporation tax reduction and bankers bonuses are the remaining divide
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 28,113
    This will raise eyebrows at Buckingham Palace. Has @KwasiKwarteng forgotten that as Chancellor he is a royal trustee who, with the Prime Minister, actually sets the percentage of Crown Estate profits that are paid for the Sovereign Grant? https://twitter.com/chrisshipitv/status/1576830758018502657
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,547
    Scott_xP said:

    Jonathan said:

    They talk long term strategy, but this is all short term politics.

    Both of which they are REALLY bad at
    Because of the current probabilities the only importance of the Tory view is whether they can get us through to 2024 with a degree of damage limitation and without actually destroying the nation. The politically interesting question is Labour's long term costed strategy, and what IFS etc have to say about it.

    Labour's position on this or that short term thing is tactics. It is their strategy and the instruments to implement the long term that matter.

    We may be in for a wait.

  • This hasn't shifted the UK corporate bond and gilt markets, as I understand it. This is only 2 billion out of 45 million package, as Bartholomew says.

    Now there'll have to be more changes of policy, on the back of this one..

    The extraordinary fact is that labour is now aligned with the conservatives on all the main measures including the 2 year cap

    This hasn't shifted the UK corporate bond and gilt markets, as I understand it. This is only 2 billion out of 45 million package, as Bartholomew says.

    Now there'll have to be more changes of policy, on the back of this one..

    The extraordinary fact is that labour is now aligned with the conservatives on all the main measures including the 2 year cap
    Labour isn't supporting a number of the others. We need a full breakdown on this, from one of our stats-expert posters.
    Corporation tax reduction and bankers bonuses are the remaining divide
    Corporation tax reduction has been bigged up as one of the "for the wealthy" features of the budget. Yet for those self-employed who are set up as companies, the reversal of the tax increase is a major boost (yes, I am one of them).
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,635

    This hasn't shifted the UK corporate bond and gilt markets, as I understand it. This is only 2 billion out of 45 million package, as Bartholomew says.

    Now there'll have to be more changes of policy, on the back of this one..

    The extraordinary fact is that labour is now aligned with the conservatives on all the main measures including the 2 year cap

    This hasn't shifted the UK corporate bond and gilt markets, as I understand it. This is only 2 billion out of 45 million package, as Bartholomew says.

    Now there'll have to be more changes of policy, on the back of this one..

    The extraordinary fact is that labour is now aligned with the conservatives on all the main measures including the 2 year cap
    Labour isn't supporting a number of the others. We need a full breakdown on this, from one of our stats-expert posters.
    Corporation tax reduction and bankers bonuses are the remaining divide
    Are the Tories now proposing a further windfall tax on energy companies then?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 19,538
    So, Labour now need to campaign on whether KK will u turn on Bankers bonuses.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,347
    ClippP said:

    Nigelb said:

    ClippP said:

    ClippP said:

    WillG said:

    I see from tonight's thread that you scratch the surface of the appeaser types, and it turns out to be deep seated anti-Americanism behind it. Still smarting from the loss of global superpower status by the British Empire a century ago. All the blame can go to British politicians standing up for the freedom of Europe. Not, say, the fact that millions of Africans and Indians resented living under authoritarian government where they didn't get to choose who runs them.

    And of course, just like United Russia scum, the only way they can justify this immoral empire is by pretending democracy is no better. Poles, Lithuanians, Ukrainians aren't able to be free democracies like the Brits. We are either Russian puppets or American puppets.

    "Free democracy like the Brits", Mr WillG??? Nothing of the kind..... Starting with our broken voting system...
    Why is it 'broken' ? What guiding principles would you start with to choose a 'better' system?
    One where every vote counts. And where we end up with a government - not necessarily of just one party - which reflects the wishes of the people.

    So no minority governments, and no safe seats.
    You are making the mistake of viewing the UK as one demos whereas it is many.

    London has different priorities to Cornwall or Yorkshire, for example.

    With our current system each local community gets to vote for their representative who then has an equal say alongside the other communities.
    Which would still happen in larger multi member constituencies with STV - except that the voice of those outside the winning national plurality (likely to be only 40% of those voting under FPTP) would be far better represented.
    That’s the system I first proposed in the 90s…
    And the Liberal Government was pushing through Parliament over a hundred years ago, when everything was interrupted by the Great War.
    If the Liberals hadn’t merged with the SDP I would likely vote for them
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631
    MaxPB said:

    Jonathan said:

    MaxPB said:

    Still not voting for this bunch of c-words. Zero humility.

    KK used the word ‘proud’ this morning. He is remarkably arrogant.
    He got a bit cross, didn't he.

    Anyway it doesn't matter. He's a dead man walking. Truss's departure will be slower and more carefully timed, but there is no way the Tories can go into the next election with these two up front and centre stage.
    Hence rejoining the party, the current Tory party membership is completely out of touch with reality. Hopefully I can go to some events and tell them they're all grasping, selfish and out of touch.
    That's actually quite a tempting thought. I could join the local party and have the opportunity to call Michael Fabricant a stupid c*** to his face.

    And then do the same to Gavin Williamson.
  • TheKitchenCabinetTheKitchenCabinet Posts: 1,042
    edited October 3
    Scott_xP said:

    Kwarteng loses his rag with Nick Robinson after being told there is now a "Kwarteng premium" on people's mortgage rates: "What you are presenting is a complete distortion of reality."
    https://twitter.com/KevinASchofield/status/1576834828984385541

    Interest rates are going up here because the US is raising interest rates. Simple as that.

    Here are a few articles if you want to check that out.

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-keeps-the-u-s-from-stepping-in-to-slow-dollars-rapid-rise-11664663619?st=jjx37mmmzehwznm&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-a-strong-dollar-means-for-the-rest-of-the-world-11658482200?st=a6khdj103evbbc3&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/26/business/economy/us-dollar-global-impact.html

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,109
    Scott_xP said:

    Kwarteng tells BBC "it is a complete distortion" to characterise budget as something that caused mortgages to go up over 900 pounds A YEAR.
    On this he maybe probably correct, as many I spoke to last week said their mortgages were up hundreds of pounds A MONTH after his budget

    https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1576835087756193792

    And, I will never forgive him for that.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 10,318
    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    MaxPB said:

    Still not voting for this bunch of c-words. Zero humility.

    KK used the word ‘proud’ this morning. He is remarkably arrogant.
    A Cambridge educated economist, arrogant?

    You'll be telling me next that a civil servant at the DfE is useless.
    He's not an economist, he's a historian.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 104,916
    President of South Africa and his wife to make the first state visit to the UK of King Charles' reign in November
    https://twitter.com/chrisshipitv/status/1576712610895929344?s=20&t=QkMHs8xjc5KDTUzGEC0XHA
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,547
    Scott_xP said:

    Kwarteng like Truss: incapable of anything but the most banal copy-and-paste political sloganeering: 'What I'm focusing on' etc etc. No intellectual presence in the conversation at all.
    https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1576836990242549761

    What is jarring (to use the Schapps word) is that this such a humbling moment for the government and the chancellor, and yet the tone of @KwasiKwarteng is pure arrogance
    https://twitter.com/jonsopel/status/1576837342077194240

    Just to note that KK used the word 'contrition' on R4 Today interview with NR. I doubt if this has yet been given proper weight. Normally politicians don't do that.

    He was, of course, in general awful.

  • eekeek Posts: 21,770

    This hasn't shifted the UK corporate bond and gilt markets, as I understand it. This is only 2 billion out of 45 million package, as Bartholomew says.

    Now there'll have to be more changes of policy, on the back of this one..

    The extraordinary fact is that labour is now aligned with the conservatives on all the main measures including the 2 year cap

    This hasn't shifted the UK corporate bond and gilt markets, as I understand it. This is only 2 billion out of 45 million package, as Bartholomew says.

    Now there'll have to be more changes of policy, on the back of this one..

    The extraordinary fact is that labour is now aligned with the conservatives on all the main measures including the 2 year cap
    Labour isn't supporting a number of the others. We need a full breakdown on this, from one of our stats-expert posters.
    Corporation tax reduction and bankers bonuses are the remaining divide
    Corporation tax reduction has been bigged up as one of the "for the wealthy" features of the budget. Yet for those self-employed who are set up as companies, the reversal of the tax increase is a major boost (yes, I am one of them).
    I think that shows you don't understand how the tapering worked for profits between £50,000 to £250,000....

    If he wants to support small businesses a way better solution would be a low rate for profits less than £150,000 a year with a higher rate above that...
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,631
    What a shambles.

    Unfit for office.

    Clueless.

    An embarrassment to the nation.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,284
    Elon’s certainly mastered the bloke walking very slowly because he’s shit himself mode.

    https://twitter.com/business/status/1576587825109164033?s=21&t=AN7dhJbY6Vjc3kNTiOrjow
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,147

    This hasn't shifted the UK corporate bond and gilt markets, as I understand it. This is only 2 billion out of 45 million package, as Bartholomew says.

    Now there'll have to be more changes of policy, on the back of this one..

    The extraordinary fact is that labour is now aligned with the conservatives on all the main measures including the 2 year cap

    This hasn't shifted the UK corporate bond and gilt markets, as I understand it. This is only 2 billion out of 45 million package, as Bartholomew says.

    Now there'll have to be more changes of policy, on the back of this one..

    The extraordinary fact is that labour is now aligned with the conservatives on all the main measures including the 2 year cap
    Labour isn't supporting a number of the others. We need a full breakdown on this, from one of our stats-expert posters.
    Corporation tax reduction and bankers bonuses are the remaining divide
    Corporation tax reduction has been bigged up as one of the "for the wealthy" features of the budget. Yet for those self-employed who are set up as companies, the reversal of the tax increase is a major boost (yes, I am one of them).
    I shed no tears for tax rises on personal service scammers.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,559
    On Topic

    The Lady is for turning
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 23,635
    edited October 3
    EPG said:

    Well quite, it turns out that the markets hate the energy and NI policies that both parties agree on.

    No. They hate the unfunded nature of the Tories' plan.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 54,631
    edited October 3

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    MaxPB said:

    Still not voting for this bunch of c-words. Zero humility.

    KK used the word ‘proud’ this morning. He is remarkably arrogant.
    A Cambridge educated economist, arrogant?

    You'll be telling me next that a civil servant at the DfE is useless.
    He's not an economist, he's a historian.
    OK, well, in that case he's obviously quite unusual.

    The modesty of Cambridge educated historians is legendary. And historians in general are noted for our reserve, humility and lack of hubris.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,035

    EPG said:

    Well quite, it turns out that the markets hate the energy and NI policies that both parties agree on.

    No. They hate the unfunded nature of the Tories' plan.
    True, but Labour aren't proposing an 8% of GDP tax increase. They too are just waiting for someone else to do it.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 23,122
    Jonathan said:

    So, Labour now need to campaign on whether KK will u turn on Bankers bonuses.

    They need to force the Tories to spell out exactly:

    - what spending cuts and supply side measures they intend
    - precisely how these will lead to growth
    - over what timetable and
    - for whom.

    We have had no clarity on the first and I am willing to bet that Truss and co., have no answers on the remaining 3.
  • This is an absolute car crash. He interviews worse than Corbyn!
This discussion has been closed.